China Merchants Energy Shipping (China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd.) (601872)

Equity Research Report | Sector: Integrated Shipping | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the close on September 11, 2026; September 12–13 are weekend days with no A-share closing data. Different platforms differ in adjustment methods, indicator calculation timing, and data refresh, and some technical indicators are platform-displayed values or estimates based on the closing prices of the most recent 20 trading days.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

China Merchants Energy Shipping's performance in the first half of 2026 accelerated significantly: it achieved operating revenue of RMB 19.651 billion, up 56.15% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 6.960 billion, up 227.57% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of RMB 6.907 billion, up 262.36% year-on-year; and net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 8.131 billion, up 130.56% year-on-year. Growth was mainly driven by the recovery in the tanker and dry bulk businesses, of which tanker transportation net profit in the second quarter of 2026 was approximately RMB 3.70 billion, up 359.5% year-on-year, becoming the core source of current profit growth.

The company takes tankers and dry bulk as its dual core and also covers LNG, container, car carrier (ro-ro), and general cargo businesses. As of the end of 2025, the company had 235 owned vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 38.8459 million DWT, and 64 vessels on order with a total deadweight tonnage of 7.8802 million DWT; in 2025, tanker and dry bulk revenue together accounted for approximately 67.6% of revenue from major businesses. The diversified businesses help spread the cycle of any single vessel type, but overall profitability remains highly affected by tanker and dry bulk freight rates and changes in vessel supply and demand.

The company recently obtained control of Antong Holdings, with related parties in the China Merchants group holding approximately 24.83% in aggregate, which is expected to promote synergies in container capacity, customers, ports, and logistics resources, but will also increase the complexity of consolidated financial statements, related-party transactions, and management integration. The company also ordered 5 Aframax tankers with a total contract price of approximately RMB 2.485 billion, expected to be delivered from 2029 to 2030, reflecting the intention to expand and renew the tanker fleet, but this will increase capital expenditures, depreciation, and financing needs.

As of September 11, 2026, the stock closed at RMB 20.00, rising from around RMB 17.89 over the most recent 20 trading days to RMB 20.00; after a rapid rise on September 9, it fell for two consecutive days, shifting in the short term to high-level consolidation. The TTM P/E ratio is approximately 14.88x to 14.89x, and the dynamic P/E ratio is approximately 11.63x; institutional forecasts for 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company broadly range from RMB 14.5 billion to RMB 20.29 billion, with wide differences, indicating that both valuation and earnings expectations depend heavily on how long the high prosperity lasts.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Businesses and Product Layout

• Tanker transportation: mainly includes VLCCs and other crude oil and product oil transport vessels, undertaking international crude oil transportation.
• Dry bulk transportation: includes VLOCs, Capesize, Panamax, and Handysize bulk carriers, mainly transporting iron ore, coal, grain, and other bulk commodities.
• LNG transportation: operates liquefied natural gas carriers through owned and joint venture projects, mainly based on long-term transportation agreements and long-term charters.
• Container transportation: mainly operated by related business platforms such as Sinotrans Container Lines, with routes covering China's coastal areas and the Asia-Pacific region.
• Car carrier (ro-ro) transportation: transports finished vehicles and related vehicles, primarily benefiting from China's automobile exports and the overseas expansion of new energy vehicles.
• General cargo and multi-purpose vessel transportation: develops segment businesses such as pulp, heavy-lift cargo, and high-end general cargo transportation.
• Strategic setup: builds a full-format shipping business layout of "oil, gas, bulk, car, container, and new pipeline network," with tanker and dry bulk as the dual core while cultivating LNG, ro-ro, and container businesses.
• 2025 revenue structure: tanker transportation RMB 10.289 billion, approximately 36.5%; bulk carrier transportation RMB 8.769 billion, approximately 31.1%; container transportation RMB 6.149 billion, approximately 21.8%; ro-ro vessel transportation RMB 1.690 billion, approximately 6.0%; LNG transportation RMB 55 million, approximately 0.2%. Tankers and dry bulk together accounted for approximately 67.6% of revenue from major businesses.

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

China Merchants Energy Shipping is in the midstream of the maritime shipping industry chain, providing maritime transportation services for energy, bulk commodities, automobiles, and containers. Its "capacity" is mainly reflected in fleet size, vessel type structure, long-term transportation contracts, and a global operating network, rather than traditional manufacturing fixed capacity. The company expands actually controlled or operationally managed capacity through owned vessels, chartered vessels, joint venture projects, and managed agency businesses; the company website discloses that it operates and manages more than 360 vessels with total capacity of more than 50 million DWT, a scope that includes owned, chartered-in, joint venture, and managed vessels and cannot be directly compared with the owned-vessel scope in the annual report.

• The core upstream input is not large-scale industrial raw materials, but vessels and vessel operation-related resources, mainly including vessel fuel oil and lubricants, port charges, agency fees, stevedoring charges, crew labor costs, vessel depreciation and repair costs, vessel charter hire, voyage freight, and slot charter fees, as well as vessel construction, financing, insurance, spare parts, materials, drydocking, and voyage repair costs.
• In 2025, operating costs were RMB 20.718 billion, mainly consisting of fuel costs, port charges, crew labor costs, depreciation costs, and charter costs; operating costs increased 12.19% year-on-year, higher than the 9.22% growth in operating revenue, mainly related to the expansion of owned and chartered-in vessel scale, growth in cargo volume, and increases in depreciation, charter hire, stevedoring charges, and port charges.
• The tanker and dry bulk businesses are relatively sensitive to vessel depreciation, vessel charter hire, fuel, and port charges; container transportation is relatively sensitive to stevedoring charges, vessel charter hire, and fuel; the ro-ro business has a relatively high proportion of fuel, slot charter, cargo fees, and agency fees; newbuilding and fleet renewal will increase capital expenditures, depreciation, and financing costs.
• The company's 2025 annual report did not clearly disclose the top five major suppliers and procurement proportions, so it is not possible to judge from this whether there is significant dependence on any one shipyard, fuel supplier, or port service provider.
• Fuel prices are affected by international oil prices and regional supply and demand, vessel construction prices are affected by shipyard capacity, steel prices, and berth cycles, and port charges are usually constrained by port rules and industry standards; overall, the company is not an absolute price maker for the above cost items.
• The company has a relatively large fleet scale and possesses certain procurement, financing, and scale effects; long-term charters, fleet renewal, new energy-saving vessels, and large vessel types help reduce unit transportation costs, while the central state-owned enterprise background and financing capability help lower the funding cost of new vessel investment.
• Downstream customers mainly include large energy companies, mining companies, traders, steel companies, automobile companies, and logistics customers. Crude oil transportation customers include large oil companies, energy traders, and refining and chemical companies; iron ore transportation customers include large mining companies, steel companies, and ore traders; LNG transportation customers include natural gas producers, energy companies, and long-term project customers; ro-ro and container customers respectively include automobile manufacturers, automobile exporters, automobile logistics companies, foreign trade companies, freight forwarders, and logistics companies.
• In the 2025 annual report's accounts receivable details, customers or related business entities such as Sinotrans Limited, UNIPEC UK Company Limited, Unipec Asia Company Limited, UNIPEC America Inc, and Guangzhou GAC Business Logistics Co., Ltd. appeared, but the accounts receivable balance cannot be equated with full-year sales or customer revenue proportion.
• The company has signed long-term transportation agreements with Vale for 14 VLOCs, and the dry bulk segment has a strong long-term project-based cargo source foundation. Long-term agreements help stabilize vessel utilization and cash flow, but reduce the flexibility of some capacity to participate in the high-freight spot market.
• The 2025 annual report corresponding to December 31, 2025 did not directly disclose the sales proportion of the top five customers on an overall basis, so it cannot be directly determined whether the company's revenue is highly dependent on a single customer. This customer concentration data source is a single-year annual report, and complete top-five customer revenue proportion was not obtained; specifics should be based on the company's subsequent annual reports or segment information.
• Tanker, dry bulk, and container freight rates have strong market-oriented characteristics and are mainly determined by vessel type, route, cargo volume, ports, and global supply and demand; when the market is tight, shipowners have stronger bargaining power, and when supply is excessive, cargo owners and charterers gain stronger bargaining power.
• LNG and VLOC long-term agreement businesses are relatively stable, but transportation prices are usually stipulated in long-term contracts and cannot fully enjoy short-term spot market increases; the ro-ro business relies relatively more on automobile manufacturers and large logistics customers, while the container business is affected by charter costs, slot procurement, and stevedoring charges.
• As of December 31, 2025, the carrying value of accounts receivable was RMB 1.385 billion, contract assets were RMB 1.902 billion, prepayments were RMB 160 million, accounts payable were RMB 1.836 billion, and contract liabilities were RMB 356 million; accounts receivable/operating revenue was approximately 4.9%, accounts receivable/net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 23.0%, accounts receivable and contract assets combined/operating revenue was approximately 11.7%, and accounts payable/operating costs was approximately 8.9%. At the end of 2025, accounts receivable increased 20.66% from the end of 2024, mainly because year-end receivable freight and demurrage had not yet been settled; contract assets increased 53.59%, mainly due to an increase in freight for incomplete voyages at the end of the reporting period. Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 9.055 billion, significantly higher than net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 6.012 billion, indicating relatively good overall cash collection capability; however, contract assets grew rapidly, and attention is still needed on the settlement cycle of freight, demurrage, and incomplete voyages. The company did not disclose complete accounts receivable turnover days or credit terms by customer, so it is not possible to further precisely judge the payment cycle.
• Regarding supplier concentration, the 2025 annual report did not disclose the top five major suppliers and procurement proportions; regarding customer concentration, the 2025 annual report as of December 31, 2025 did not disclose the sales proportion of the top five customers on an overall basis. The above concentration data comes from a single source and could not be cross-verified, and it is not possible to judge upstream and downstream concentration or specific bargaining strength solely based on part of the accounts receivable customer details; specifics should be based on the company's latest annual report.

China Merchants Energy Shipping is a capital-intensive, scale-driven midstream transportation service provider. It is neither an upstream energy company controlling resource prices nor a downstream brand company directly facing end consumers; its further improvement in profit margin mainly depends on the recovery of tanker and large dry bulk freight rates, fleet structure upgrading, a reasonable allocation between long-term agreements and the spot market, energy-saving cost reduction, and scaled operations, rather than having absolute pricing power over fuel or downstream cargo owners.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

As of August 31, 2026, the company disclosed its 2026 semi-annual report, with the reporting period from January 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026. In the first half of 2026, net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 6.907 billion, up 262.36% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were RMB 0.86, up 230.77% year-on-year; weighted average return on equity was 15.61%, an increase of 10.33 percentage points from the same period last year; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 8.131 billion, up 130.56% year-on-year. As of June 30, 2026, net assets attributable to the parent company were RMB 46.838 billion, up 8.91% from the end of 2025; total assets were RMB 90.727 billion, up 10.57% from the end of 2025. In 2025, net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 5.024 billion, up 0.18% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were RMB 0.74; weighted average return on equity was 14.55%; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 9.055 billion, up 6.83% year-on-year.

In the first half of 2026, revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, and operating cash flow all increased substantially, with profit growth mainly driven by the recovery in the tanker and dry bulk businesses. In the second quarter of 2026, tanker transportation revenue was approximately RMB 5.52 billion, up 139.2% year-on-year, and net profit was approximately RMB 3.70 billion, up 359.5% year-on-year; dry bulk transportation revenue was approximately RMB 2.79 billion, up 38.2% year-on-year, and net profit was approximately RMB 750 million, up 183.5% year-on-year. Compared with 2025, when profit growth was affected by factors such as asset disposal gains and certain fair value changes, in the first half of 2026 the growth rate of profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was higher than the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company, indicating an improvement in profit quality.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

According to Tonghuashun data, within the past 6 months a total of 20 institutions forecast 2026 performance, with average net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 15.114 billion and average EPS of RMB 1.87; the page lists 2027 net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately RMB 16.437 billion and EPS of approximately RMB 2.03, but does not fully disclose a unified market average for 2028. Data from Founder Securities, Sinolink Securities, Huachuang Securities, Guotai Haitong, and Shenwan Hongyuan respectively come from research reports listed in research minutes or excerpts from financial terminals. Institutions differ widely in their judgments on tanker freight rates, dry bulk prosperity, geopolitical risks, and the duration of the shipping cycle, and the forecasts do not constitute a unified and stable market consensus. Huachuang Securities' net profit attributable to the parent company data is a rough conversion based on EPS and total share capital of approximately 8 billion shares and is not company announcement data. Shenwan Hongyuan's forecast is significantly higher than the multi-institution average and belongs to a relatively optimistic scenario.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

Valuation data is mainly as of around September 10–11, 2026. The closing price on September 10, 2026 was RMB 20.58; some quote sources showed approximately RMB 20.00 on September 11, 2026, but there are differences from other quote pages. Based on a share price of RMB 20.58, market data platforms showed total market capitalization in the range of approximately RMB 165 billion to RMB 170 billion, and at the limit-up on September 9, market reports indicated total market capitalization of approximately RMB 169.485 billion. Lixinger data shows that as of September 10, 2026, the TTM P/E ratio was 15.32x, and the historical percentile of the rolling P/E ratio was approximately 79.34%. Around September 11, 2026, some quote platforms showed a PB of approximately 3.55x; based on net assets attributable to the parent company of RMB 46.838 billion as of June 30, 2026 and total share capital of approximately 8 billion shares, net assets per share are roughly RMB 5.8, corresponding to a PB of approximately 3.5x. Based on a share price of RMB 20.58, the 2026 P/E ratios based on Tonghuashun consensus EPS of RMB 1.87, Founder Securities EPS of RMB 1.98, Huachuang Securities EPS of RMB 2.14, Guotai Haitong EPS of RMB 1.79, and Sinolink Securities EPS of RMB 2.12 are approximately 11.0x, 10.4x, 9.6x, 11.5x, and 9.7x, respectively; Founder Securities gives 2026–2028 P/E ratios of approximately 10.4x, 9.4x, and 9.0x, and PB ratios of approximately 3.02x, 2.50x, and 2.12x; Sinolink Securities implies 2026–2028 P/E ratios of approximately 9.7x, 11.2x, and 10.9x. Institutional target prices are broadly RMB 18.70–26.90, with a median of approximately RMB 23. Overall, the company's TTM P/E is approximately 15x and PB approximately 3.5x, while 2026 institutional forward P/E ratios are mostly 9.5x–11.5x, but the shipping industry is highly cyclical, and the degree of undervaluation cannot be judged solely on the basis of a single year of high prosperity earnings. The current valuation already reflects relatively strong expectations for shipping prosperity, and the subsequent valuation core depends on whether the high prosperity in tanker and dry bulk shipping can continue into 2027 and beyond. The main uncertainties include tanker freight rates being highly affected by geopolitics, sanctions, and changes in trade routes, significant divergence in 2027–2028 earnings forecasts, and the company's relatively large capital expenditures: in the first half of 2026, net cash flow from investing activities was negative RMB 5.424 billion, mainly related to payments for new vessel construction, and future depreciation, financial expenses, and changes in vessel supply may affect actual profitability.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 China Merchants Energy Shipping Obtains Control of Antong Holdings

On August 29, 2026, China Merchants Energy Shipping announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Sinotrans Container Lines Co., Ltd. had, since July 11, 2025, cumulatively held 632,248,198 shares of Antong Holdings through agreement transfers, block trades, and centralized bidding, accounting for 14.94% of its total share capital, becoming the single largest shareholder of Antong Holdings. On August 28, 2026, Sinotrans Container Lines signed a concerted action agreement with China Merchants Port and Sinotrans, and the three parties together held approximately 24.83% of Antong Holdings' shares. Antong Holdings completed a board reshuffle on the same day, with Sinotrans Container Lines and China Merchants Port jointly nominating and electing 5 directors, Zhao Chunji, nominated by Sinotrans Container Lines, was elected chairman, and Li Jun was appointed general manager. On this basis, China Merchants Energy Shipping determined that Sinotrans Container Lines became the controlling shareholder of Antong Holdings, and China Merchants Group became the actual controller. This matter is conducive to promoting synergies in capacity, customers, ports, and logistics resources in the container transportation field, but may increase related-party transactions, consolidated financial statements, and management integration complexity, and the subsequent governance effect depends on integration execution. This acquisition of control was not disclosed as a cash acquisition of all equity interests in Antong Holdings, and the scale of funds used for earlier stake increases and the cost of acquiring shares should be based on previous announcements and periodic reports.

4.2 Proposed Increase of RMB 2.3 Billion in Expected 2026 Daily Related-Party Transaction Quota

On August 31, 2026, China Merchants Energy Shipping announced a proposed increase of a total of RMB 2.3 billion in the 2026 daily related-party transaction quota, raising the full-year expected quota from RMB 11.435 billion to RMB 13.735 billion, and the proposal still needs to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review. It mainly includes: the quota for purchasing marine fuel oil and lubricants between the company and Sinopec Group and its subsidiaries increased by RMB 1.5 billion, raising the full-year expected quota to RMB 3.5 billion; the quota for cargo freight, freight forwarding income, site rental fees, port charges, and berthing fees between the company and Sinotrans and its subsidiaries increased by RMB 400 million, raising the full-year expected quota to RMB 2.2 billion; and the quota for financial shared accounting service fees, site rental fees, port charges, technical service income, and port stevedoring charges with other related parties increased by RMB 400 million, bringing the full-year expected quota after the increase to approximately RMB 585 million. The company stated that the increase in quota was mainly due to rising fuel oil prices and, after obtaining control of Antong Holdings, the inclusion of transactions between the former Antong Holdings and related China Merchants group enterprises into the scope of related-party transactions. The expected quota is not equal to the actual amount incurred, and final execution is subject to shareholders' meeting approval and actual transactions.

4.3 Significant Growth in First-Half 2026 Performance, with the Official Interim Report Basically Meeting the Pre-Increase

On July 6, 2026, the company estimated that first-half 2026 operating revenue would be RMB 18.7 billion to RMB 20.6 billion, up 48% to 63% year-on-year; total profit would be RMB 7.7 billion to RMB 8.6 billion, up 208% to 244% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company would be RMB 6.6 billion to RMB 7.3 billion, up 214% to 248% year-on-year; and net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses would be RMB 6.54 billion to RMB 7.24 billion, up 244% to 281% year-on-year. The company stated that it was mainly driven by factors such as the improvement in the international tanker transportation market, spot freight rates on some routes reaching historical highs, improved supply and demand in the international dry bulk market, and the recovery of the BDI index. The tanker segment's second-quarter profit contribution was expected to increase by approximately 50% from the first quarter, the dry bulk segment increased by approximately 170%, and the container and ro-ro transportation businesses showed recovery. The semi-annual report on August 31, 2026 showed that, as of June 30, 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 6.9595 billion, slightly above the midpoint of the pre-announcement range. Performance mainly came from the improvement in the prosperity of operating businesses such as tankers and dry bulk, but shipping freight rate fluctuations, geopolitical conditions, crude oil trade volumes, and the pace of new vessel deliveries still affect sustainability.

4.4 Proposed Implementation of 2026 Interim Dividend

On August 31, 2026, the company announced a proposed 2026 interim profit distribution of a cash dividend of RMB 0.13 per share (tax inclusive). As of June 30, 2026, the company's total share capital was 8,074,538,502 shares, based on which the proposed cash dividend is approximately RMB 1.0497 billion, accounting for approximately 15.08% of first-half net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 6.9595 billion, lower than the upper limit of "no more than 30% of current-period net profit attributable to the parent company" previously authorized by the shareholders' meeting. The company stated that the plan comprehensively considers strategic development, tax implications of repatriating overseas profits, and future funding needs, and will not have a material impact on normal operating cash flow. The specific record date and ex-dividend date have not yet been specified in the plan announcement, and follow-up equity distribution implementation announcements should be monitored.

4.5 Order for 5 Aframax Tankers, Expected Delivery from 2029 to 2030

On August 6, 2026, the company announced that through its wholly owned subsidiary Haihong Shipping (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. it signed 5 vessel newbuilding agreements with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Group to order 5 energy-saving and environmentally friendly AFRAMAX tankers equipped with scrubbers and shaft generators, with a total contract price equivalent to approximately RMB 2.485 billion, expected to be delivered from 2029 to 2030. This matter reflects the company's intention to expand and renew its fleet during a prosperous tanker market phase, but will increase future capital expenditures, financing needs, and freight rate cycle risk after new vessel deliveries.

4.6 Sale of Aging Ro-Ro Vessel, Expected to Generate Nearly RMB 230 Million in Asset Disposal Gains

On August 14, 2026, the company announced that its controlled subsidiary Shenzhen China Merchants Ro-Ro Transportation Co., Ltd. publicly listed for sale 1 4,310-berth ro-ro vessel "Chang Sheng Hong" through the Shanghai United Assets and Equity Exchange, with a final transaction price of RMB 285.8 million, expected to generate nearly RMB 230 million in asset disposal gains. The counterparty is an independent third party, and the transaction does not constitute a related-party transaction or a major asset restructuring. This matter may provide a one-off boost to 2026 profit, but should not be conflated with operating profit from the main shipping business.

4.7 Investor Communications Focus on High Volatility in the Tanker Market

The investor relations activity record disclosed on September 7, 2026 shows that the company participated in multiple brokerage strategy meetings and the 2026 semi-annual results briefings between September 1 and September 7, 2026, with approximately more than 200 participating institutions and individuals. The company stated that from April to May 2026, the tanker market experienced severe阶段性 oversupply of "fewer cargoes and more vessels," and global seaborne oil trade volumes fell by nearly double digits in the first half of the year; entering the third quarter, affected by factors such as navigation and rerouting in the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, tanker freight rates showed characteristics of high volatility and a rising floor. The above content represents management views in investor communications and is not a formal earnings forecast announcement; judgments about fourth-quarter prosperity, tanker freight rates, and market sustainability cannot be equated with realized financial results.

4.8 Sinopec Group's Reduction Plan Has Been Completed

On June 23, 2026, the company disclosed an announcement on a shareholder holding more than 5% of shares, China Petrochemical Corporation, terminating its reduction plan early and the results of the share reduction. Sinopec Group originally planned to reduce no more than 80,745,385 shares during the period from May 12, 2026 to August 12, 2026, and actually reduced 80,744,311 shares through centralized bidding, with a reduction price range of RMB 17.16 to RMB 19.19 per share and total reduction amount of approximately RMB 1.454 billion. After the reduction was completed, Sinopec Group directly held 13.57% of China Merchants Energy Shipping's shares, and together with its concerted action person Sinopec Group Asset Management Co., Ltd. held 14.05% in aggregate, remaining the company's second-largest shareholder; the remaining 1,074 unreduced shares would no longer be reduced. As of September 13, 2026, no announcement was found of Sinopec Group launching a new reduction plan, nor was any announcement found of a new share repurchase by China Merchants Energy Shipping in September 2026.

4.9 Regulatory Warning and Administrative Regulatory Measures Still Require Attention

On May 19, 2026, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to China Merchants Energy Shipping, involving accounting errors such as revenue recognition for certain voyages during 2021 to 2023 by its wholly owned subsidiary Sinotrans Container Lines, revenue recognition methods for joint vessel investment and slot exchange businesses, tax accrual, and lease accounting treatment. The Shanghai Stock Exchange determined that the relevant matters caused the financial reports disclosed in the company's 2021 annual report, 2022 semi-annual report and annual report, and 2023 semi-annual report and annual report to be inaccurate, and required the company and its directors and senior management to rectify and submit a rectification report within one month after receiving the decision. On May 20, 2026, the company announced that it had received an administrative regulatory measures decision letter issued by the Shanghai Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Although this matter is not a new event in September 2026, against the background of Antong Holdings being brought into the control system, increased related-party transactions, and accelerated business integration, it is still necessary to continuously monitor rectification progress, the fairness of related-party transaction pricing, and internal control risks.

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, China Merchants Energy Shipping's stock price was near its 52-week high, rising from RMB 17.89 to RMB 20.00 over the most recent 20 trading days, with a period high of RMB 21.70 and a low of RMB 17.02. After the rapid rise on September 9, it fell for two consecutive days on September 10–11, and on September 11 it opened at RMB 21.46, reached a high of RMB 21.70, hit a low of RMB 19.58, and closed at RMB 20.00, showing a high-open-low-close pattern and wide-range consolidation, indicating relatively obvious high-level selling pressure and short-term profit-taking pressure. Moving averages and MACD still retain some strong characteristics, and RSI is 53.64, in the neutral zone; however, main capital statistics diverge from price performance, and the volume-price relationship has not yet formed stable consistency. Technically, the current focus is on whether the RMB 19.60–20.00 support area can stabilize, and whether the RMB 20.90–21.70 resistance area can be effectively broken through with volume confirmation.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario projection based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute a deterministic forecast of future stock prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week's Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high subjective weight, approximately 50% to 60%; a heuristic weight based on the current technical pattern, trading volume, and capital flows, not a statistical probability): price range RMB 19.60–20.90. Trigger conditions include holding RMB 19.60–20.00, turnover falling back to approximately RMB 2.0–3.5 billion, no obvious weakening in the shipping sector, and repeated resistance near RMB 20.90. This corresponds to the scenario of digesting profit-taking after the rapid rise on September 9.
• Weaker downward (medium subjective weight, approximately 30%; a heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability): price range RMB 18.50–19.60. Trigger conditions include breaking below RMB 19.60 with volume, turnover exceeding recent normal levels and the close failing to reclaim RMB 20.00, while the shipping sector weakens overall or market risk appetite declines. If RMB 18.50 is also effectively broken, it may move further toward the area near RMB 18.00.
• Rebound and strengthening (relatively low subjective weight, approximately 10% to 20%; a heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability): price range RMB 20.90–22.16. Trigger conditions include regaining RMB 20.90–21.00 and maintaining closing confirmation for at least one trading day, single-day turnover expanding to more than RMB 3.5 billion, and the shipping sector strengthening in tandem; only if it further breaks through RMB 21.70 may it open room to test the RMB 21.82–22.16 range.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, single-day turnover was approximately RMB 3.305 billion, turnover rate was 2.03%, and average turnover over the most recent 5 trading days was approximately RMB 3.13 billion; turnover on September 9 and September 10 was RMB 3.893 billion and RMB 4.356 billion, respectively, at relatively high recent levels. On September 11, main capital statistics showed a net inflow of approximately RMB 308 million, but the stock price fell, and there have recently been multiple divergences between net capital inflow and closing price declines, indicating active chip exchange, but whether active buying can translate into sustained gains has not yet been confirmed. The top ten tradable shareholder data is as of June 30, 2026, announced on August 31, 2026, with total holdings of approximately 71.61%; controlling shareholders and large corporate shareholders account for a high proportion, while public funds, social security, insurance, and other institutions together account for approximately 2.32% of tradable shares, so institutions are not the main body of chips. The above holdings data has a quarterly lag and may have changed due to third-quarter trading. Combined with turnover and turnover rate, current liquidity is generally good, but price direction divergence is relatively large during high-level volume expansion; it cannot be judged solely on the basis of net inflow of main capital that sustained absorption is occurring.

Checkable volume confirmation signals: if subsequent single-day turnover reaches or exceeds RMB 3.5 billion for two consecutive days and the closing price can hold RMB 20.90–21.00, this can be regarded as a volume-price confirmation signal of enhanced short-term capital absorption; if turnover exceeds RMB 3.5 billion but the closing price falls below RMB 19.60, then it is closer to a volume-expansion decline risk signal rather than a pure capital entry signal.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 20.90–21.70 resistance band can be effectively broken with turnover expanding to more than RMB 3.5 billion; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether the RMB 19.60–20.00 first support area shows stabilization on reduced volume; if it breaks below RMB 19.60 with volume, watch the RMB 18.50–19.00 support area; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• If it breaks below RMB 18.50, observe the previous platform support near RMB 18.00 and RMB 17.80; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Watch whether turnover continuously reaches more than RMB 3.5 billion, and whether price direction during volume expansion is synchronized with trading volume; at the same time, pay attention to whether net inflow of main capital continues to diverge from stock price performance. The above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.

The above scenario projection is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026 and calculations from historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term stock prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

China Merchants Energy Shipping belongs to the integrated shipping industry, covering multiple segment markets such as tankers, dry bulk, LNG, containers, and ro-ro. The industry is jointly affected by global trade, geopolitics, environmental regulations, and new vessel deliveries, but the supply-demand structure, contract models, and competitive logic of each segment differ.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The tanker market has highly cyclical freight rates, with core variables including global seaborne crude oil trade volume, OPEC+ production policy, refinery utilization, route distance, sanctions and geopolitics, fleet growth, and the pace of scrapping old vessels. VLCCs have scale and capital barriers, but freight rates are still affected by international supply and demand, and shipowners do not have sustained and stable full pricing power.
• The dry bulk market is mainly affected by seaborne demand for bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal, grain, and bauxite. The supply of VLOCs and large Capesize vessels is relatively specialized, and scaled shipowners and long-term agreement customers have certain advantages, but Capesize, Panamax, and Handysize fleets are still affected by market indices such as BDI and BCI.
• LNG transportation has characteristics of capital intensity, technology intensity, and long project cycles, and long-term charters and project binding are important business models. China Merchants Energy Shipping participates in LNG transportation through joint venture projects, which helps reduce single-project risk and obtain long-term cash flow, but short-term spot LNG vessel charter rates are still affected by global LNG capacity, vessel deliveries, and regional trade flows.
• The container transportation market has many shipping companies and intense route competition, and industry concentration is higher than in the traditional bulk market, but freight rates fluctuate significantly. Large liner companies have advantages in route networks, alliances, port resources, and scaled procurement; China Merchants Energy Shipping mainly focuses on China's coastal and Asia-Pacific regions, and its global network is inferior to global liner companies such as COSCO Shipping Holdings, Maersk, and MSC.
• Car carrier ro-ro transportation is driven by China's automobile exports, new energy vehicle exports, and third-country trade growth, but there are many new vessel deliveries and there is a risk of phased overcapacity. Competition focuses on berth scale, route coverage, vehicle loading and unloading efficiency, port networks, and long-term cooperation with automakers.
• The company's 2025 annual report believes that future supply growth in tankers and large dry bulk still needs attention, the LNG and ro-ro markets face certain new vessel delivery pressure, and the container market faces risks of slowing demand and capacity growth outpacing cargo volume growth.

6.3 Major Competitors

China Merchants Energy Shipping has no listed company with an exactly identical business structure, and it is more appropriate to compare by segment business: oil and gas transportation mainly benchmarks against COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping Nanjing Tanker, container transportation can reference COSCO Shipping Holdings and Zhonggu Logistics, and ro-ro, general cargo, and multi-purpose vessels can reference COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers. Compared with single-segment shipping enterprises, the company has diversified advantages in tankers, dry bulk, LNG, ro-ro, and containers, but its comprehensive business structure also means that freight rates, costs, and supply-demand cycles in different segment markets will jointly affect overall profitability.

7. Risk Warnings

• The prosperity of the tanker market is highly cyclical. The company disclosed that from April to May 2026 there was phased oversupply of "fewer cargoes and more vessels," and global seaborne oil trade volumes fell by nearly double digits in the first half of the year; if crude oil seaborne demand, refinery utilization, or trade route changes cause freight rates to fall, the current high profit growth rate in tankers may be difficult to sustain.
• The company's tanker and dry bulk businesses account for a relatively high proportion of revenue from major businesses, and the first-half 2026 performance growth relied significantly on these two types of businesses. If BDI, Capesize vessel freight rates, or VLCC freight rates weaken, the diversified businesses may not be able to fully hedge the decline in core segment profitability.
• New vessel investment will bring risks related to capital expenditures, financing, depreciation, and capacity supply. The company has ordered 5 Aframax tankers with a total contract price of approximately RMB 2.485 billion, expected to be delivered from 2029 to 2030; if market freight rates fall by then or the industry experiences concentrated new vessel deliveries, the profitability of the new capacity may be lower than expected.
• After obtaining control of Antong Holdings, the company needs to handle matters such as business integration, consolidated financial statements, governance synergies, and standardization of related-party transactions. The expected 2026 daily related-party transaction quota is proposed to increase by RMB 2.3 billion to RMB 13.735 billion; the quota increase does not equal the actual amount incurred, but after the transaction scale expands, requirements for pricing fairness, information disclosure, and internal control all further increase.
• In May 2026, the company received a regulatory warning from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and administrative regulatory measures from the Shanghai Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, involving accounting errors such as revenue recognition for historical voyages, joint vessel investment and slot exchange businesses, tax accrual, and lease accounting treatment at Sinotrans Container Lines. Against the background of Antong Holdings being brought into the control system and increased related-party transactions, there are still management risks in the implementation of historical rectification and accounting for new businesses.
• At the end of 2025, the company's contract assets were RMB 1.902 billion, up 53.59% year-on-year, mainly related to an increase in freight for incomplete voyages at period end; accounts receivable increased 20.66% from the end of 2024. Although operating cash flow is generally strong, changes in the settlement cycle of freight, demurrage, and incomplete voyages may still affect the quality of cash collection.
• The container and car carrier ro-ro businesses face varying degrees of competition and supply pressure. Container transportation is affected by slowing demand, capacity growth, charter costs, and changes in stevedoring charges; although the car carrier ro-ro business is supported by automobile exports, there are many new vessel deliveries and phased overcapacity may occur.
• After the recent rapid rise, the stock price is in high-level consolidation, with the September 11 intraday amplitude reaching 10.30% and a divergence between statistically net capital inflow and a closing price decline. If it cannot effectively break through the RMB 20.90 to 21.70 resistance area, or breaks below the RMB 19.60 support area with volume, short-term volatility and pullback pressure may increase; technical indicators and third-party capital flow data have differences in basis and lag.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

China Merchants Energy Shipping's current growth logic mainly comes from improved tanker freight rates, repaired dry bulk supply and demand, fleet scale effects, and the stable contribution of long-term agreement businesses. In the first half of 2026, the growth rate of profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was higher than the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company, indicating that the performance improvement in the current period mainly came from operating businesses; at the same time, the company maintains a diversified layout in tankers, dry bulk, containers, ro-ro, and LNG, and the change in control of Antong Holdings also provides a new development lever for container and integrated logistics synergies.

Subsequent performance elasticity depends on whether the high prosperity in tanker and dry bulk shipping can continue, and whether new vessel deliveries, fleet renewal, and capital investment can be converted into effective capacity. In the first half of 2026, the company's net cash flow from investing activities was negative RMB 5.424 billion, and in the future it will also need to coordinate newbuilding payments, financing costs, depreciation burdens, and cash dividend arrangements. The current market already has relatively high expectations for 2026 earnings, while different institutions have clearly divergent judgments on 2026 to 2028 earnings, and whether the valuation can be supported by sustained earnings realization still depends on changes in freight rates, trade routes, and vessel supply.

From a technical perspective, RMB 20.90 to 21.70 is the recent resistance area, and RMB 19.60 to 20.00 is the short-term support area. The high-open-low-close pattern after consecutive gains and the divergence between capital flows and stock price performance reflect that market disagreement still remains. At the operating level, the company still needs to continuously advance the integration of Antong Holdings, standardization of related-party transactions, and rectification of historical accounting errors. The growth outlook and governance execution quality will jointly affect subsequent performance.

Data Sources

• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) Institutional Forecast_Stockstar
• Sinolink Securities Upgrades China Merchants Energy Shipping Rating
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) In-Depth Research Report: Foreign Trade Full-Vessel-Type Operating Platform, Tanker-Bulk Resonance Elasticity Expected
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) 2026 Q1 Report Review: Tanker Net Profit Surges Fourfold, Looking Forward to Super-High Prosperity__Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872): Performance Improving Across All Business Segments, Tanker Shipping Expected to Continue Enhancing Profitability__Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices, Trend Charts_Investing.com
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) P/E Ratio|Valuation|Fundamentals - Lixinger
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: Announcement on Obtaining Control of Antong Holdings Co., Ltd. Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: Announcement on Increasing the 2026 Daily Related-Party Transaction Quota Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: 2026 Semi-Annual Performance Pre-Increase Announcement Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: 2026 Semi-Annual Profit Distribution Plan Announcement Sina Finance_Sina
• Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: Announcement on Building 5 New Aframax Tankers Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: Announcement on the Sale of Aging Ro-Ro Vessels Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: Investor Relations Activity Record Form-20260907v4 Sina Finance_Sina
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: Announcement on Shareholder Holding More Than 5% Terminating Reduction Plan Early and Share Reduction Results Sina Finance_Sina
• https://www.sse.com.cn/disclosure/credibility/supervision/measures/focus/c/10818986/files/beb8da685e054cb6acc48d86cbd4ed0e.pdf
• China Merchants Energy Shipping sh601872 Stock Price, Quotes, Live Broadcast, News, Financial Reports, Data - Aigupiao
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH) Stock Quotes_Historical Data_Main Capital - Big Wave Data
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) Stock Quote Trend Technical Analysis_Future Forecast_Buy and Sell Operation Suggestions_Investing.com
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Stock Quotes_Stockstar
• Stock Code: 601872

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information. Information is as of the close on September 11, 2026; September 12–13 are weekend days with no A-share closing data. Different platforms differ in adjustment methods, indicator calculation timing, and data refresh, and some technical indicators are platform-displayed values or estimates based on the closing prices of the most recent 20 trading days. There may be timeliness differences, and specific data should be based on the company's formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is only for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.