China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (601888)

Individual Stock Analysis Report　|　Industry: Duty-Free and Travel Retail　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　As of the September 11, 2026 close; the MA20, MACD, RSI and Bollinger Bands sections of the technical indicators are partly based on third-party technical snapshots around September 11 and have not yet been fully synchronized with the final closing data, and are for reference only.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

China Tourism Group Duty Free reported “revenue under pressure and profit recovery” in the first half of 2026: operating revenue was RMB 27.655 billion, down 1.76% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 3.106 billion, up 19.49%; and non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 3.078 billion, up 18.61%. Revenue from Hainan was RMB 18.554 billion, up 23.44%, accompanied by an increase in the overall gross margin to approximately 33.9%. This was the main support for profit improvement, although adjustments in Shanghai and airport channels continued to weigh on overall revenue.

The company’s core competitive advantages derive from its duty-free operating qualifications, Hainan and airport-port channels, international brand procurement capabilities, supply-chain system and membership base. As of the end of 2025, the company operated six offshore-island duty-free stores in Hainan and approximately 200 duty-free stores nationwide and overseas, covering more than 100 cities. It cooperated with more than 1,600 renowned brands and had more than 38 million members. In the first half of 2026, the company won bids for 29 inbound and outbound duty-free projects and continued operating the daily consumer goods duty-free store at Haikou International Duty-Free City, with its channel network continuing to expand.

Profit recovery mainly depended on improvement in the Hainan business, a higher proportion of duty-free merchandise, optimization of discounting and inventory management, and contraction of the taxable business. In 2025, the company’s revenue was RMB 53.694 billion, down 4.92% year on year, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 3.586 billion, down 15.96%. Duty-free merchandise sales revenue increased 1.29% year on year, while taxable merchandise sales revenue declined 21.69%. Overall gross margin rose to 32.75%, but net margin fell to 6.68%, indicating that expenses, asset impairments and channel operating costs continued to constrain profitability.

The company completed the closing of DFS’s Greater China retail business transaction in March 2026 and has advanced the integration of systems, members, supply chains and organization. The company disclosed that DFS became profitable after completion of the acquisition, but has not disclosed its specific revenue, net profit or individual-store operating data. In the secondary market, the share price was RMB 51.67 as of the September 11, 2026 close, close to the 52-week low of RMB 50.21 and below the MA5, MA10 and MA20. The stock therefore remained weak in the short term, and the sustainability of subsequent profit recovery still requires further verification by the market.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Principal Businesses and Product Layout

• Duty-free merchandise sales: liquor and tobacco, cosmetics, watches and jewelry, luxury goods, apparel and luggage, electronics, food and other travel-retail products
• Taxable merchandise sales: certain duty-paid products, online taxable business and related retail operations
• Hainan offshore-island duty-free: Sanya International Duty-Free City, Haikou International Duty-Free City and other offshore-island duty-free stores
• Airport and port duty-free: airports in Shanghai, Beijing and other locations, as well as domestic airports, border ports and downtown stores
• Inflight duty-free, cruise duty-free, foreign-vessel supplies and diplomatic personnel duty-free and other specialized channels
• Online travel retail and cross-border merchandise sales
• Investment and development of duty-free commercial complexes: Haikou International Duty-Free City, Sanya International Duty-Free City and supporting commercial, hotel, cultural and tourism projects
• Overseas travel retail: Hong Kong, Singapore, Cambodia, Japan, Sri Lanka and other markets, with further expansion into Vietnam in 2025

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

China Tourism Group Duty Free is not a manufacturing company, but a travel retailer connecting international brand suppliers with tourism-consumption scenarios. Its core assets include duty-free operating qualifications, airport and port operating rights, the Hainan offshore-island duty-free store network, international brand relationships, its membership system and customs-supervised logistics system. The company occupies a midstream position in the travel-retail value chain and earns profits through licenses, channels, brand procurement, supply chains and tourism-scenario operations.

• Upstream suppliers of physical goods include international cosmetics groups and brand owners, watch, jewelry and luxury-goods brands, tobacco and liquor suppliers, as well as food, electronics, apparel and luggage suppliers and certain domestic brands.
• Airport, property and commercial-complex operators are not merchandise suppliers, but their concession fees, rents, sales commissions and marketing expenses materially affect channel costs and profit elasticity.
• China Tourism Group generally purchases duty-free goods from suppliers through unified procurement by CDF Group and wholesales them to its duty-free stores through distribution centers. Certain remote stores are supplied directly by vendors. The company has established eight customs-supervised logistics centers in Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Sanya, Haikou and Hong Kong.
• In 2024, purchases from the five largest suppliers amounted to RMB 18.428 billion, accounting for 47.60% of total annual purchases, and all were non-related parties. According to the 2025 annual-report basis, purchases from the five largest suppliers were approximately RMB 20.320 billion, accounting for 56.09% of total annual purchases. The sources and statistical bases of the two years’ data differ; the original tables in the company’s annual reports should prevail.
• The company benefits from scale advantages and a certain degree of bargaining power in the procurement of certain international and high-end brands, given its large procurement scale and broad channel coverage. However, luxury brands exercise strong control over channels, pricing systems, store image and authorization qualifications. Core brands retain substantial bargaining power, and the company does not possess strong pricing power over all upstream suppliers.
• Downstream customers mainly include Hainan offshore-island travelers, domestic and international airport passengers, consumers at border, cruise, railway-station and downtown duty-free stores, as well as online travel-retail and cross-border-consumption customers.
• The company ultimately sells to a large number of dispersed consumers, rather than operating under a typical structure in which a small number of large customers exert pricing pressure. Consumers can compare prices and substitute among cross-border e-commerce, overseas travel shopping, domestic taxable retail and other duty-free operators.
• In 2024, sales to the five largest customers were approximately RMB 3.342 billion, accounting for 0.59% of total annual sales, indicating very low customer concentration. This figure is sourced from the company’s 2024 annual report and East Money’s compilation. No more detailed disclosure of end-consumer structure has been identified, and actual customer concentration should be based on the latest annual report.
• Key downstream pressures include greater consumer sensitivity to discounts and prices, diversion from online cross-border e-commerce and overseas shopping, promotional competition in the Hainan duty-free market, airport passenger traffic and international-flight recovery, and changes in high-end consumer sentiment.
• The industry structure differs from the traditional manufacturing model in which a small number of large customers exert pricing pressure. The company is more exposed to passenger traffic, purchasing power, price competition and policy changes. Consumers are generally price takers but have strong channel-substitution and price-comparison capabilities.
• As of the end of 2024, accounts receivable were approximately RMB 67.55 million, representing approximately 0.12% of operating revenue. The five largest customers accounted for 50.65% of total accounts receivable. Accounts payable were approximately RMB 4.685 billion, including approximately RMB 3.676 billion in accounts payable for merchandise and approximately RMB 1.009 billion in accounts payable for construction projects. Prepayments were approximately RMB 839 million, up approximately 74.05% year on year. Accounts receivable were very small relative to revenue, indicating that terminal retail sales were mainly settled immediately or on short credit terms. The sizable merchandise payables suggest that the company has some supply-chain financing advantages over upstream suppliers, but inventory, prepayments and construction of large commercial complexes still tie up capital. When passenger traffic or consumption weakens, inventory turnover, discounting and inventory write-down pressures may increase.
• Upstream supplier concentration is relatively high, but suppliers are spread across multiple international brand groups rather than concentrated in a single supplier. Purchases from the five largest suppliers accounted for 47.60% in 2024 and approximately 56.09% in 2025. The sources and statistical bases may have been adjusted, and the 2025 figure was compiled from an annual-report database. The latest original annual-report disclosure should be consulted. Downstream customer concentration is very low: sales to the five largest customers accounted for 0.59% in 2024. This figure has a single source and lacks a more detailed end-consumer breakdown; the latest annual report should prevail.

China Tourism Group Duty Free occupies a midstream position in the travel-retail value chain. It is a channel-focused leader whose core barriers are duty-free operating rights, channel networks and high-end brand supply chains, rather than an upstream resource company or a downstream strong-brand manufacturer. Its merchandise gross margin is affected by the proportion of duty-free business, while net margin is also influenced by airport rents and commissions, sales discounts, promotional expenses, inventory write-downs, commercial-complex operating expenses and asset impairments. Future profit improvement will mainly depend on recovery in Hainan and airport passenger traffic, a higher proportion of duty-free business, improved discount and inventory management, airport-rent optimization, product-mix upgrades, member repurchases and overseas channel expansion.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The 2026 semiannual report was disclosed on August 21, 2026. The report has not been audited, and the relevant data remain subject to final confirmation in the audited annual report. In the first half of 2026, non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 3.078 billion, up 18.61% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 1.4983, up 19.23%; weighted average return on equity was 5.46%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points year on year; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 2.480 billion, down 4.89% year on year; and the asset-liability ratio was approximately 25.66% as of the end of June 2026. In full-year 2025, non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 3.544 billion, down 14.47% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 1.7334; weighted average return on equity was 6.48%; and net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 6.059 billion, down 23.69% year on year.

Revenue declined slightly year on year in the first half of 2026, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent increased by nearly 20%, indicating simultaneous revenue pressure and profit recovery. Hainan revenue was RMB 18.554 billion, up 23.44% year on year, providing the main support for revenue and profit improvement. Overall gross margin was approximately 33.9%, up approximately 1.1 percentage points year on year. Temporary adjustments in Shanghai and airport channels weighed on overall revenue. In 2025, duty-free merchandise sales revenue was approximately RMB 39.165 billion, up 1.29% year on year, while taxable merchandise sales revenue was approximately RMB 13.388 billion, down 21.69% year on year. The contraction of taxable business created a clear drag on overall revenue.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

As of September 7, 2026, or around September 11, the earnings-forecast page of 10jqka showed that approximately 31 institutions had issued forecasts for 2026 earnings over the previous six months, while 29 institutions had issued forecasts for 2028 earnings. Average forecast revenue growth for 2026, 2027 and 2028 was approximately 3.61%, 11.24% and 9.72%, respectively. The report-update dates and the number of institutions covering revenue and profit forecasts are not fully consistent across institutions. These data represent market consensus expectations rather than company guidance.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

As of the September 11, 2026 close, China Tourism Group Duty Free’s A-share closing price was approximately RMB 51.58–51.67, with different market-data terminals showing a difference of approximately RMB 0.10. The company had approximately 2.078 billion shares outstanding. Based on a closing price of RMB 51.58, total market capitalization was approximately RMB 107.2 billion. According to CFI.cn, P/E was approximately 26.14x, non-recurring-item-adjusted P/E approximately 26.56x and P/B approximately 1.69x; the page used EPS of approximately RMB 1.97 as of the end of June 2026. A simple calculation based on a share price of RMB 51.58 and TTM EPS of approximately RMB 1.97 gives a P/E of approximately 26.2x. As of September 10, 2026, Lixinger showed P/B of approximately 1.90x. Because different platforms handle book value per share, share capital and valuation timing differently, direct cross-platform comparisons are inappropriate. Based on a share price of approximately RMB 51.58 on September 11, 2026, the institutional average 2026 forecast of RMB 4.833 billion in net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent, or EPS of RMB 2.33, implies a 2026 forecast P/E of approximately 22.1x. Based on the institutional forecast ranges, the 2026, 2027 and 2028 forecast P/E ranges are approximately 20.2–24.1x, 17.0–20.6x and 14.4–18.1x, respectively. Among the 15 analysts summarized by Investing.com, 14 recommended buying and none recommended selling, resulting in an overall “Buy” rating. The 12-month average target price was RMB 69.33, with a high of RMB 79 and a low of approximately RMB 57.2. Based on a closing price of RMB 51.58, the average target price implies approximately 34% upside. Recent domestic target prices include RMB 75.43 from Huatai Securities and RMB 91.2 from Guotai Haitong Securities, while the average institutional target price over the past 90 days compiled by Goutai Junan Securities was approximately RMB 89.86. The wide dispersion in target prices mainly reflects different assumptions regarding forecast P/E benchmarks, Hainan growth, airport-channel recovery, DFS integration and consumption recovery. Overall, the market has already priced in part of the expected 2026 profit recovery. Further valuation expansion will depend on whether Hainan growth can continue, airport channels can recover and DFS integration can generate sustained profit contributions. Key risks include changes in Hainan offshore-island duty-free passenger traffic, per-capita spending and competition; changes in airport duty-free channel concessions and rent policies; the effectiveness of DFS Greater China integration; implementation of duty-free and Hainan Free Trade Port policies; weaker-than-expected consumption recovery; exchange-rate volatility; and changes in international supply chains.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 September 5, 2026: H-Share Securities Movement Monthly Return Shows Stable Share Capital Structure

The company disclosed the H-share securities movement monthly return as of August 31, 2026. The number of A shares was 1,952,475,544, with no increase or decrease in August. The number of H shares was 125,321,100, also unchanged in August. Total authorized/registered shares amounted to 2,077,796,644. There were no share options, warrants, convertible securities or other arrangements that would result in changes to the number of shares during August, and no share repurchase or treasury-share changes were disclosed. The announcement has limited direct impact on A shares but shows that the company’s share capital structure remained stable. Source: https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97:9494/MRGG/CNSESH_STOCK/2026/2026-9/2026-09-05/12584796.PDF

4.2 September 1, 2026: Investor Relations Disclosure Covers DFS Integration and Operating Progress

The company disclosed the Investor Relations Activity Record—2026 Second Operating Tracking Exchange Meeting, which was actually held on August 24, 2026. The company stated that it completed the closing of DFS’s Greater China retail business on March 19, 2026, and was advancing the smooth transition of systems, members, business personnel and management teams. The company retained DFS’s original merchandise, marketing, CRM and retail operating teams, while using China Tourism Group Duty Free’s membership system, domestic-brand products and Hong Kong CDF’s international supply-chain and logistics capabilities to empower the DFS business. The company said DFS had become profitable after completion of the acquisition and that sales continued to grow. It is currently advancing store adjustments and plans to incorporate DFS’s high-end customers into China Tourism Group Duty Free’s broader membership system. The company did not disclose DFS’s specific revenue, net profit, individual-store operating data or any new specific acquisition targets. Source: https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12578989&stockid=601888

4.3 August 21, 2026: 2026 Semiannual Report Shows Profit Growth and Revenue Pressure

The company disclosed its 2026 semiannual report for the period from January 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026. Operating revenue was RMB 27.655 billion, down 1.76% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 3.106 billion, up 19.49%; non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 3.078 billion, up 18.61%; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 2.480 billion, down 4.89%; and basic EPS was RMB 1.4983, up 19.23%. Revenue remained under slight pressure, but both net profit and adjusted net profit increased. Source: https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12511941&stockid=601888

4.4 First Half of 2026: Hainan Business Improved and 29 New Inbound and Outbound Duty-Free Projects Added

In its semiannual report, the company stated that in the first half of 2026 it captured opportunities arising from the island-wide customs closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port and new offshore-island duty-free policies. It continued promoting integrated “duty-free plus” cultural and tourism operations, and both operating performance and market share in Hainan improved. During the reporting period, the company introduced 128 popular domestic and international brands and opened several first stores in the Hainan region. The daily consumer goods duty-free store at Haikou International Duty-Free City commenced operations. The company won bids for 29 inbound and outbound duty-free projects involving airports such as Chengdu Tianfu, Wuhan Tianhe, Guangzhou Baiyun, Changsha Huanghua, Haikou Meilan, Xiamen Xiang’an and Jinan Yaoqiang; waterway ports such as Shanghai Wusongkou, Guangzhou Nansha, Xiamen Wutong and Qingdao; and several land ports.

4.5 First Half of 2026: DFS Acquisition Completed and Business Integration Advanced

In the 2026 semiannual report, the company disclosed that it had completed the acquisition of DFS’s Greater China retail business during the reporting period and was advancing integration in procurement and supply chains, the membership system, information systems, organizational structure and talent. The Lego store at Hong Kong International Airport had opened.

4.6 2026 Semiannual Report: No Interim Profit Distribution Proposal

The important notice in the semiannual report showed that the profit distribution proposal or capital-reserve capitalization proposal considered and approved by the board for the reporting period was “none.” As of the disclosure date, the company had not proposed an interim cash dividend for 2026. This does not mean that no full-year dividend will be paid; the amount and timing of any subsequent interim dividend remain subject to formal announcements.

4.7 As of June 30, 2026: Controlling Shareholder’s Stake Stable, Changes in Certain Institutional Holdings

As of June 30, 2026, China Tourism Group Co., Ltd. held 1,040,642,690 shares of the company, representing 50.08% of total shares. Its holding did not change during the reporting period, and the shares were not pledged, marked or frozen. National Social Security Fund Portfolio 118 increased its holding by 15,565,644 shares to 25,198,914 shares at period end. Guoxin Hongsheng Investment (Beijing) Co., Ltd. increased its holding by 9,057,790 shares to 12,467,390 shares. Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited reduced its holding by 5,431,051 shares to 58,490,659 shares. Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed Securities Investment Fund reduced its holding by 11,300,000 shares to 6,000,000 shares. China Southern CSI 300 ETF reduced its holding by 12,975,348 shares to 3,088,542 shares. UBS AG reduced its holding by 4,228,440 shares to 3,497,360 shares. The number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the semiannual-report period was 340,082. The above data are as of June 30, 2026 and cannot substitute for the latest holdings data as of September 2026.

4.8 March 19, 2026: Issuance of 8,937,600 H Shares to Support DFS Acquisition

For the acquisition of DFS’s Greater China retail business, the company issued 5,474,300 and 3,463,300 new H shares to Delphine SAS and Shoppers Holdings HK Limited, respectively, under general authorization on March 19, 2026. A total of 8,937,600 shares were issued at a subscription price of HKD 77.21 per share. Following completion of the issuance, total share capital increased from 2,068,859,044 shares to 2,077,796,644 shares. The number of A shares remained 1,952,475,544, and all newly issued shares were H shares. The issuance was an acquisition-payment arrangement and was not a company share repurchase.

4.9 As of September 12, 2026: No New Repurchase, Increase in Holdings or Share Cancellation Arrangements Identified

Based on the company’s recent announcement list, the 2026 semiannual report and the H-share securities movement monthly return as of August 31, 2026, no new A-share repurchase, controlling-shareholder increase or director and senior-management increase plan had been identified as of September 12, 2026. The semiannual report’s shareholder information did not show a repurchase account among the top ten shareholders, and the H-share monthly return did not disclose share repurchases, treasury shares or share cancellations.

4.10 As of September 12, 2026: No Major Negative Regulatory Announcements or New Major Acquisitions Identified

As of September 12, 2026, no major negative regulatory announcements concerning China Tourism Group Duty Free, such as major regulatory penalties, formal investigations, delisting-risk warnings or exchange inquiries, had been identified. No new major acquisition transaction, overseas acquisition target or major asset-restructuring plan announced by the company had been identified during the same period. The company’s most important recent capital operation remains the acquisition of DFS’s Greater China retail business and the subsequent integration.

5. Share Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the September 11, 2026 close, China Tourism Group Duty Free’s share price was RMB 51.67, close to the 52-week low of RMB 50.21, and below MA5, MA10, MA20 and the Bollinger middle band. Short-term prices therefore remained under moving-average pressure and in a weak operating state. The MACD snapshot showed DIF above DEA and a positive histogram, while RSI6 was close to 20, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical recovery. However, MACD remained below the zero axis, RSI14 remained in the neutral-to-weak range, and a reversal had not been confirmed by price or volume. The recent decline was not accompanied by extreme volume expansion. Fund flows showed a divergence between periodic inflows of large and extra-large orders and continued net outflows of total funds and medium-term large orders. Technically, the key points to monitor are whether the RMB 51.2–51.8 support zone can stabilize and whether the share price can regain the RMB 53.3–53.5 moving-average and Bollinger middle-band area with volume support.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices and publicly available technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice or a definitive forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50%–60%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and fund-flow structures, not a statistical probability): the observed price range would be approximately RMB 51.2–53.5. Conditions include the stock holding RMB 51.2–51.8, volume remaining around 18–25 million shares without a volume-driven breakdown, RSI6 recovering from low levels, and no obvious systemic decline in the broader market or travel-retail sector. If this scenario holds, the share price may fluctuate repeatedly around RMB 52, with the densely clustered moving-average area around RMB 53.3–53.5 as the first upside level to monitor.
• Weak downside move (medium weight, approximately 30%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and fund-flow structures, not a statistical probability): the observed price range would be approximately RMB 49.8–51.5. Conditions include an effective close below RMB 51.2, volume rising above 25–30 million shares, continuous net outflows of main funds, further downward movement in the lower Bollinger band, RSI14 moving toward 30, or synchronized weakness in travel retail and consumer sectors. If this scenario holds, the market may further test the strong RMB 50.2–51.0 support zone. After a break below the 52-week low of RMB 50.21, the extent of downside cannot be determined from technical indicators alone.
• Stronger rebound (low-to-medium weight, approximately 20%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and fund-flow structures, not a statistical probability): the observed price range would be approximately RMB 53.3–54.9. Conditions include the stock regaining RMB 53.3–53.5, daily volume reaching more than 25–30 million shares, turnover value recovering to approximately RMB 1.3–1.5 billion, continued improvement in the MACD histogram, RSI6 moving back above 30 and toward 50, and strength in the travel-retail sector or industry catalysts that improve market expectations. If RMB 53.5 is broken, the RMB 54.6–54.9 resistance zone should be monitored. Whether the rebound develops into short-term trend recovery still requires confirmation from simultaneous improvements in volume and fund flows.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was approximately 1.08%, turnover value approximately RMB 1.087 billion and trading volume approximately 21.06 million shares. Recent turnover value was generally in the RMB 800 million–2.0 billion range, reaching approximately RMB 1.781 billion and RMB 1.958 billion on September 3 and September 4, respectively. By the standards of large-cap stocks, a turnover rate of approximately 1% is low to moderate. The market remained somewhat active, but had not reached the sustained volume expansion usually associated with a strong trend. Shareholder-concentration data were as of June 30, 2026, with an announcement date of August 21, 2026: the top ten tradable shareholders collectively held 61.42%, including China Tourism Group Co., Ltd. with 50.08%; Hong Kong Securities Clearing-related holdings included 5.60% of H shares and 2.82% of A shares. The top ten shareholders also included the National Social Security Fund, public funds, ETFs and UBS. The 61.42% concentration was mainly attributable to the controlling shareholder and Hong Kong Securities Clearing-related holdings and cannot simply be equated with highly concentrated freely tradable shares. The shareholder data were approximately one quarter behind September 11, 2026, and the price and trading structure may have changed since September. They should therefore be treated only as lagging background information. If volume remains below approximately 20 million shares during a rebound, sustainability should be monitored cautiously. If volume reaches more than 25–30 million shares on consecutive trading days and turnover value returns to approximately RMB 1.3–1.5 billion, the move would more closely resemble effective price-volume confirmation.

Observable volume signals include the following: if the share price regains RMB 53.3–53.5, with at least one trading day recording volume above 25 million shares and turnover value above approximately RMB 1.3 billion, while main funds shift from net outflow to net inflow, this may serve as an observation signal that the short-term rebound has gained volume confirmation. If the stock falls below RMB 51.2 with volume rising above 25–30 million shares, this would be an observation signal of continued weakness.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Monitor whether the RMB 51.2–51.8 support zone shows a low-volume stabilization or lower-shadow support. If it fails, monitor the strong RMB 50.2–51.0 support zone.
• Monitor whether the share price can regain the RMB 53.3–53.5 moving-average and Bollinger middle-band area, and watch the RMB 54.6–54.9 resistance zone.
• Monitor whether trading volume can increase from approximately 20 million shares to more than 25–30 million shares and remain consistent with the price direction.
• Monitor whether the recent five-day inflow of large and extra-large orders can turn into sustained net inflows of total funds, rather than a divergence in which large orders flow in while total funds continue to flow out. All of the above are observation frameworks and not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical price and technical-indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be affected by news, fund flows, broader-market conditions and other factors. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited, and do not guarantee actual future performance or constitute buy or sell recommendations. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear investment risks themselves.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

China’s duty-free and travel-retail industry has clear barriers in policy, licenses, channels, brand procurement and membership scale. Operators must obtain the relevant duty-free operating qualifications and secure operating rights for airports, ports, Hainan offshore-island locations or downtown stores through tenders or competitive negotiations. Competition is shifting from simply selling products at low prices toward comprehensive competition based on “brands + scenarios + culture and tourism + experience + digital membership.”

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• In 2024–2025, the industry generally exhibited an “one dominant player plus multiple strong competitors” structure. China Tourism Group Duty Free led in full-channel coverage, national presence, Hainan, airports and port resources.
• China Tourism Group Duty Free’s competitive barriers include policy and licenses, scarce airport and port channels, international brand procurement resources, and scale feedback generated by procurement scale, logistics efficiency, digital operations and member repurchases.
• Participants such as Hainan Development Holdings/Global Premium, Hainan Tourism Duty Free, Shenzhen Duty Free, Zhuhai Duty Free, CDFG and Wangfujing Group compete based on Hainan local resources, regional airports and ports, diplomatic and outbound-traveler businesses, or department-store and commercial scenarios.
• According to 2024 market-research data, China Tourism Group Duty Free’s full-channel share of China’s duty-free and travel-retail market was approximately 78.7%. This is a third-party or company research estimate, and the statistical scope may or may not include taxable business, online business and travel retail. It cannot be directly equated with the company’s share of the Hainan offshore-island duty-free market.
• Future industry competition will shift from “whether an operator has the operating qualification” toward passenger acquisition, brand supply, sales efficiency per square meter, scenario operations and digital membership capabilities. China Tourism Group Duty Free’s absolute market share may decline as the number of licenses and operators increases.

6.3 Major Competitors

China Tourism Group Duty Free has a nationwide full-channel layout, advantages in Hainan and airports, relationships with more than 1,600 international brands, approximately 200 duty-free stores and more than 38 million members. Its overall scale and supply-chain capabilities are leading. In comparison, Hainan Development Holdings/Global Premium and Hainan Tourism Duty Free focus more on Hainan, Shenzhen Duty Free and Zhuhai Duty Free rely more on regional airports and ports, and Wangfujing relies on department-store and commercial-property scenarios. China Tourism Group Duty Free’s main competitive pressures come from the growing number of Hainan duty-free operators, competition for airport and port concessions, diversion from online cross-border e-commerce, greater consumer price sensitivity and changes in high-end consumer sentiment. The approximately 78.7% full-channel market-share figure is subject to differences in statistical scope and cannot be directly compared with the market share of a single Hainan offshore-island duty-free market.

7. Risk Factors

• Recovery in the Hainan offshore-island duty-free business remains uncertain. Hainan revenue increased 23.44% year on year in the first half of 2026, but overall company revenue still declined year on year. If improvements in Hainan passenger traffic, per-capita spending or market share cannot continue, profit recovery may be weaker than market expectations.
• Competition in the duty-free industry may compress discounts and profit margins. Hainan operators such as Hainan Development Holdings/Global Premium and Hainan Tourism Duty Free, as well as airport, port and downtown duty-free participants, continue to increase, potentially intensifying competition for passenger traffic, promotions and sales efficiency per store.
• Airport and port channels face risks related to operating rights, rents and passenger-traffic fluctuations. Shanghai and airport channels weighed on revenue in the first half of 2026. Newly awarded projects still require an operating-cultivation period, while airport rents, sales commissions, international flights and port passenger traffic may affect channel profitability.
• The effectiveness of DFS Greater China integration has not yet been fully quantified. The company disclosed that DFS became profitable after the acquisition and that system, membership, supply-chain and organizational integration was advancing, but it has not disclosed specific revenue, net profit or individual-store operating data. If integration, store adjustments or membership synergies fall short of expectations, the contribution from the acquisition may be affected.
• Changes in consumer demand and high-end brand sentiment may affect the merchandise mix. Downstream consumers have strong price-comparison and channel-substitution capabilities. Online cross-border e-commerce, overseas travel shopping and other duty-free operators may divert demand. If high-end consumption fails to recover sufficiently, high-margin categories such as luxury goods may come under pressure.
• Contraction of taxable business, expenses and impairment pressure may weigh on profits. Taxable merchandise sales revenue declined 21.69% year on year in 2025. Although overall gross margin increased, net margin fell to 6.68%. Sales discounts, promotional expenses, commercial-complex operating costs, inventory write-downs and asset impairments may continue to weaken profit elasticity.
• Upstream supplier concentration is relatively high. According to the database compilation based on the company’s 2025 annual report, purchases from the five largest suppliers accounted for approximately 56.09% of total annual purchases. International brands have strong influence over channels, pricing systems and authorization qualifications. Changes in cooperation, supply or procurement terms involving core brands could affect merchandise supply and gross margin.
• The share price and fund-flow environment remain weak. As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 51.67, close to the 52-week low and below several short-term moving averages. Although large and extra-large orders recorded net inflows over the past five days, total funds still recorded net outflows. If the share price falls below RMB 51.2 with increased volume, market volatility risk may rise further.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company’s medium-term growth thesis lies in recovery of Hainan offshore-island duty-free, gradual recovery of airport and port channels, contributions from newly added duty-free projects, and customer, membership and supply-chain synergies following DFS integration. Revenue growth in Hainan and gross-margin improvement in the first half of 2026 already reflected the effects of business-mix optimization. If improvements in Hainan passenger traffic, per-capita spending and market share continue, while newly awarded projects and DFS store adjustments gradually release operating contributions, profit growth may continue to outpace revenue growth.

Institutional average forecasts for 2026–2028 operating revenue are RMB 55.633 billion, RMB 61.874 billion and RMB 67.642 billion, respectively, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent is forecast at RMB 4.833 billion, RMB 5.683 billion and RMB 6.512 billion. These figures represent market consensus rather than company guidance, and forecasts vary materially across institutions. Based on the share price on September 11, 2026, the market has already priced in part of the expected profit recovery. Subsequent valuation performance will depend on the sustainability of the Hainan business, airport-channel recovery, DFS integration and the extent of consumption recovery.

The company still needs to balance scale expansion with earnings quality. Intensifying competition in Hainan and airports, diversion from online cross-border consumption, brand procurement and channel costs, asset impairments and investment in large commercial complexes could prevent revenue growth from being fully converted into net profit. Technically, the share price has not yet regained the RMB 53.3–53.5 densely clustered moving-average area, and short-term market performance may remain affected by fund flows and fluctuations in industry expectations.

Data Sources

• Company Announcement_China Tourism Group Duty Free: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-06-26/188677_20250626_ATAU.pdf
• China Tourism Group Duty Free 2025 Annual Report Review: Hainan Recovery and Overseas Expansion Build Long-Term Value—Macroeconomic Research Report _ Data Center _ East Money
• Company Announcement_China Tourism Group Duty Free: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888)_Company Announcement_China Tourism Group Duty Free: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888): Operating Analysis_F10_10jqka Financial Services
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888): 2021 Parent Net Profit Increased 57%; Offshore-Island Duty-Free and Online Retail Drove Growth_Company Research_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• [Table of Contents

CONTENTS

Contents

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Preface

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Executive Summary

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Global Duty-Free and Travel-Retail Market Competition](https://www.cdfg.com.cn/uploads/20251014img/20242025xfbps.pdf?utm_source=openai)

• Wangfujing (600859)_Company Announcement_Wangfujing: Response to the Exchange’s Regulatory Inquiry Letter Regarding Information Disclosure in the 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-21/1225486969.PDF
• China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited 2026 Semiannual Report Summary
• China Tourism Group Duty Free: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited 2026 Semiannual Report_Stock Channel_Securities Star
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888): Earnings Forecast_F10_10jqka Financial Services
• Huatai Securities—China Tourism Group Duty Free—601888—Q2 Gross Margin Continued to Improve—260824—Research Report—Company Research_Hibor Research
• China Tourism Group Duty Free: 2025 Net Profit Declined 15.96%; Proposed Dividend of RMB 4.5 per 10 Shares _ East Money
• China Tourism Group Duty Free 2025 Annual Report Review: Revenue Down 4.92%, Net Profit Down 15.96% Year on Year|Expenses_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• [[Guolian Minsheng Securities]: China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888.SH) 2026 Semiannual Report Review: Hainan Business Recovered Significantly and Gross Margin Continued to Improve—Fxbaogao](https://www.fxbaogao.com/detail/5625520?utm_source=openai)
• China Tourism Group Duty Free 2026H1 Review: Profitability Improved Against the Trend; Acquisition and Internationalization Open New Space—Macroeconomic Research Report _ Data Center _ East Money
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888) Analyst Consensus Forecasts_Market Sentiment_Investing.com
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888) 2026 Semiannual Report Review: Hainan Stable and Improving; Airport Channels Building Toward Recovery__Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Goutai Junan Securities: Assigns China Tourism Group Duty Free a Buy Rating_Stock Channel_Securities Star
• China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) Historical Prices—Investing.com
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888)_Stock Quote, Market Overview_CFI.cn
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888)_Stock Quote, Market Overview_CFI.cn
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888) Price-to-Book Ratio|Valuation|Fundamentals—Lixinger
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888)_Company Announcement_China Tourism Group Duty Free: 2026 Semiannual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/CNSESH_STOCK/2026/2026-9/2026-09-05/12584796.PDF
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888)_Company Announcement_China Tourism Group Duty Free: Investor Relations Activity Record—2026 Second Operating Tracking Exchange Meeting_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://stocks.sina.cn/sh/?code=sh601888&timer=0&vt=1&wm=1224%3Dsc01%3Dsc01&utm_source=openai
• China International Travel Stock Price History—Investing.com
• 601888 AI Stock Analysis | StockKit
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts_Investing.com
• Single-Stock Research
• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888)—Tradable Shareholders—Stock Market Center—Sohu Securities

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the September 11, 2026 close; the MA20, MACD, RSI and Bollinger Bands technical indicators are partly based on third-party technical snapshots around September 11 and have not yet been fully synchronized with the final closing data, and are for reference only. Timing differences may exist. Specific data should be based on the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information organization and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.