Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (Guomao Co., Ltd.) (603915)

Individual Stock Analysis Report　|　Industry: General Equipment Manufacturing·Reducers　|　Report Date: September 14, 2026　|　Data as of the September 11, 2026 close; certain technical indicators and shareholder data are subject to varying degrees of lag, as detailed in the descriptions of each field.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Guomao Co., Ltd. generated operating revenue of RMB 1.461 billion in the first half of 2026, up 13.27% year on year; net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 138 million, up 29.39%; recurring net profit attributable to the parent was approximately RMB 116 million, up 23.94%; and net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 146 million, turning positive from a negative figure in the same period of the previous year. This indicates that revenue recovery and earnings repair have accelerated. However, full-year 2025 net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 235 million, down 19.93% year on year, while gross margin declined to 20.00%. Whether the improvement in the first half of 2026 can continue will therefore depend on second-half demand, product pricing, gross margin and expense control.

The company’s core business is general-purpose reducers. In 2025, revenue from geared reducers was RMB 1.986 billion, accounting for approximately 76.0% of revenue from principal operations, while gross margin was only 17.95%. Traditional business remains the primary foundation of revenue and profit and is affected by industry price competition and raw-material cost volatility. Modoli reducer gross margin increased to 31.43%. The company’s precision-reducer portfolio covers harmonic and precision planetary reducers, but the related businesses remain in the cultivation and ramp-up stage and have not yet generated a contribution comparable in scale to general-purpose reducers.

The company has approximately 120,000 product models, multi-variety customized production capabilities, and a dual-channel network comprising direct sales and distributors. Customer and supplier concentration are both relatively low. However, domestic sales accounted for approximately 99.1% of revenue in 2025, while overseas revenue accounted for only approximately 0.9%, indicating that overseas expansion remains at an early stage. Direct materials represented 73.79% of total costs in 2025. The company is relatively sensitive to the prices of castings, forgings, motors and bearings, while its ability to pass costs downstream is constrained by industry competition.

As of September 11, 2026, the company’s share price was RMB 12.83, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 32.16x, below the MA5, MA10 and MA20. The share price had retreated from the August 31 high of RMB 14.46, indicating weak short-term technical conditions. Based on average institutional forecasts, net profit attributable to the parent for 2026–2028 is expected to be approximately RMB 315 million, RMB 356 million and RMB 405 million, respectively. However, the forecasts cover only two institutions, and the current valuation already partially reflects expectations for earnings recovery and growth in precision reducers.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Principal Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Geared reducers: Including modular reducers, high-power reducers, industrial gearboxes, reducers for rubber and plastics equipment, engineering planetary reducers, heavy-duty non-standard reducers and others. Revenue was RMB 1.986 billion in 2025, accounting for approximately 76.0% of revenue from principal operations, with a gross margin of 17.95%.
• Cycloidal pinwheel reducers: Featuring a compact structure, relatively small size, high single-stage transmission ratio, smooth operation, relatively low noise and convenient maintenance. Revenue was RMB 332 million in 2025, accounting for approximately 12.7%, with a gross margin of 25.55%.
• GNORD reducers: Revenue was RMB 110 million in 2025, accounting for approximately 4.2%, with a gross margin of 12.78%.
• Modoli reducers: Mainly part of the company’s precision-reducer portfolio. Revenue was RMB 135 million in 2025, accounting for approximately 5.2%, with a gross margin of 31.43%.
• Precision reducers: Through controlled subsidiaries, the company has developed harmonic reducers and precision planetary reducers for applications including robots, machine tools, new-energy equipment, intelligent material handling, laser-cutting equipment, electronic equipment and automated production lines. The business remains in the cultivation and ramp-up stage.
• Accessories and others: Revenue was RMB 51 million in 2025, accounting for approximately 2.0%, with a gross margin of 48.82%, although the business remains small in scale.
• Sales model: Direct-sales revenue was RMB 1.519 billion in 2025, accounting for approximately 58.1% of revenue from principal operations, with a gross margin of 21.65%; distributor revenue was RMB 1.096 billion, accounting for approximately 41.9%, with a gross margin of 17.72%.
• Regional structure: Domestic sales revenue was RMB 2.591 billion in 2025, accounting for approximately 99.1% of revenue from principal operations; overseas sales revenue was RMB 24 million, accounting for approximately 0.9%. The company is primarily focused on domestic sales, while its overseas business remains in the expansion stage.

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Industrial Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

Guomao Co., Ltd. occupies a midstream position in the industrial transmission chain. It is a scaled manufacturer of general-purpose reducers and is extending into high-end and precision reducers. The company primarily manufactures products in-house, supplemented by outsourced production, and has long adopted a model of “centralized manufacturing and decentralized assembly.” In 2025, it offered approximately 120,000 product models and had multi-variety customized production capabilities. Actual output was 939,100 units and sales were 935,200 units. However, the company has not disclosed a unified theoretical capacity covering all products and subsidiaries, so actual output cannot be equated with total production capacity.

• The company primarily purchases castings, forgings, motors, bearings, other mechanical components and auxiliary materials. Castings and forgings are mainly procured through price-verification procurement, while bearings and motors are mainly procured through quotation comparisons among multiple suppliers. The company adjusts procurement prices based on cost accounting, profit markups and raw-material price trends.
• In 2025, direct-material costs in general equipment manufacturing were RMB 1.551 billion, accounting for 73.79% of total costs; direct labor accounted for 9.73%, manufacturing expenses for 13.90%, and transportation expenses for 2.12%. The company’s cost base is relatively sensitive to the prices of castings, forgings, motors and bearings.
• Procurement from the top five suppliers amounted to RMB 262 million in 2025, accounting for 15.12% of total annual procurement. The highest share attributable to a single supplier was 3.47%, indicating relatively low supplier concentration. The top five suppliers included Xuzhou Dayuan Motor Co., Ltd., Changzhou Nanfang Motor Co., Ltd., Qufu Jinsheng Motor Co., Ltd., Changzhou Guomao Xin’ao Machinery Co., Ltd. and Changzhou Wujin Miaoqiao Xingsheng Forging Co., Ltd.
• The company has some scale-based procurement and multi-supplier price-comparison capabilities, but it does not possess strong absolute pricing power over standardized or semi-standardized inputs such as steel, castings, forgings, motors and bearings. When industry price competition is intense, cost increases may not be fully passed downstream.
• Downstream applications cover environmental protection, construction, power, chemicals, logistics, mining, metallurgy, petroleum, cement, rubber and plastics, construction machinery, machine tools, robots and new-energy equipment.
• Sales to the top five customers amounted to RMB 237 million in 2025, accounting for 8.94% of annual sales. The largest single customer accounted for 2.45%, indicating low customer concentration and no significant dependence on a single customer. This concentration data is based on the 2025 annual-report definition.
• As disclosed in the 2024 annual report, the company had 87 Class A distributors, as well as a relatively large number of Class B and general distributors. Its sales network covered most provinces in China, as well as Southeast Asia, Russia and other regions. In 2025, the company continued to drive sales through both direct sales and distributors.
• The general-purpose reducer market has many customers and highly fragmented demand. Channel coverage, delivery speed and cost performance help maintain customer stickiness, but pricing power for general-purpose products is limited. Customers in large construction machinery, rubber and plastics equipment, machine tools, robots and new-energy equipment typically impose stringent requirements for technical certification, cost control and delivery. Suppliers may face price competition, customized development and lengthy validation cycles.
• The company’s primary downstream competitive mechanisms are not dominance by a single customer, but rather price competition in the general-purpose product market and certification, customization and delivery requirements from high-end customers. The industry characteristics described in the company’s annual report include homogenized competition and price wars in the mid- and low-end segments, high-end technological upgrading and concentration of resources among leading companies.
• Working-capital data indicate that, according to the 2024 annual report, accounts receivable from distributors and customers recommended by distributors were approximately RMB 189 million, while accounts receivable from directly developed customers were approximately RMB 185 million, totaling approximately RMB 374 million. This was equivalent to approximately 14.45% of 2024 revenue and approximately 1.27x 2024 net profit attributable to the parent. The bad-debt provision ratio for accounts receivable from distributors and their recommended customers was 11.83%, compared with 31.06% for directly developed customers. The direct-customer portfolio therefore had materially higher aging and credit risk. This data is based on the 2024 annual-report definition; the research notes did not provide accounts-receivable turnover days.
• Supplier side: Procurement from the top five suppliers accounted for 15.12% of total annual procurement in 2025, with the largest single supplier accounting for 3.47%; concentration was not high. Customer side: Sales to the top five customers accounted for 8.94% of total annual sales, with the largest single customer accounting for 2.45%; concentration was low. The above data is based on the 2025 annual-report definition; the research notes did not disclose longer-term changes in concentration.

The company is positioned in the midstream of the industrial transmission chain and is a scaled manufacturer of general-purpose reducers. Overall, it is closer to a midstream processing and manufacturing business whose margins are significantly affected by competition and costs, rather than an upstream resource company or a downstream brand-oriented enterprise. Further margin improvement will depend primarily on easing price competition in general-purpose products, ramp-up of precision planetary and harmonic reducers, a higher proportion of heavy-duty and high-power products, improved scale-manufacturing efficiency, cost control, and expansion of overseas markets and service-based businesses.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Recurring net profit attributable to the parent was approximately RMB 116 million in the first half of 2026, up 23.94% year on year, and basic EPS was RMB 0.21; net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 146 million, compared with a negative figure in the same period of the previous year. Recurring net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 181 million in 2025, down 12.15% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 0.36, down 20.00% year on year; and weighted-average return on equity was 6.31%, down 1.73 percentage points from 8.04% in 2024.

Revenue was broadly stable in 2025, but profits came under significant pressure. In the first half of 2026, revenue growth recovered to double digits, while net profit growth exceeded revenue growth, indicating accelerated earnings repair. Net profit attributable to the parent in the first half of 2026 was equivalent to approximately 58.8% of full-year 2025 net profit. Full-year performance will still depend on second-half demand, gross margin and expense control. Working-capital items such as accounts receivable also require continued monitoring.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

As of around September 5, 2026, forecasts for 2026–2028 performance could be identified from two institutions. Coverage is limited, and the data should not be regarded as a highly stable market consensus. Forecast data comes from institutional research reports and does not constitute a formal performance commitment by the company. The main institutions are Everbright Securities and Soochow Securities.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

The closing price was RMB 12.83 as of September 11, 2026. With approximately 668 million shares outstanding, total market capitalization is estimated at approximately RMB 8.57 billion. Lixinger data as of September 10, 2026 showed a share price of RMB 13.12, total market capitalization of approximately RMB 8.763 billion, a trailing P/E ratio of 32.89x, a P/B ratio of 2.30x and a dividend yield of approximately 1.68%. Tonghuashun simultaneously showed a static P/E ratio of approximately 37.28x. Differences among platforms reflect variations in update times, adjustment methods and earnings definitions. Based on the September 11, 2026 closing price and institutional-average EPS, forecast P/E ratios for 2026–2028 are approximately 26.7x, 23.8x and 20.7x, respectively. Using Everbright Securities’ EPS, the ratios are approximately 26.2x, 23.3x and 20.7x; using Soochow Securities’ EPS, they are approximately 27.9x, 24.2x and 21.0x. The current valuation is not low by traditional manufacturing-sector standards, and the market has already priced in part of the earnings recovery and growth expectations for precision reducers. Coverage is limited to two institutions. Key uncertainties include price competition in general-purpose reducers, product pricing, gross-margin recovery, changes in accounts receivable, and orders and capacity ramp-up for precision reducers. No reliable, cross-verified target price was disclosed in the latest publicly searchable research reports, so no formal target price is provided.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 First-Half 2026 Report: Revenue and Net Profit Attributable to the Parent Increased Year on Year

Guomao Co., Ltd. disclosed its first-half 2026 report on August 28, 2026. In the first half of 2026, the company generated operating revenue of RMB 1.461 billion, up 13.27% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of approximately RMB 138 million, up 29.39% year on year. Basic EPS was RMB 0.21.

4.2 Proposed First-Half 2026 Cash Dividend

The company’s board of directors reviewed and approved the first-half 2026 profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 1.20 per 10 shares, including tax, to all shareholders. The expected cash dividend is approximately RMB 80.15 million, equivalent to approximately 57.97% of first-half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company. The plan remains subject to approval by the shareholders’ meeting and cannot yet be regarded as formally implemented.

4.3 Second Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026 to Be Held on September 16

The company plans to hold its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2026 on September 16, 2026, to review the first-half 2026 profit distribution plan and proposals to change the company’s registered capital and amend the Articles of Association. The record date is September 9, 2026. The company disclosed the meeting materials on September 8, 2026.

4.4 Proposed Change to Registered Capital and Amendment of the Articles of Association

The company plans to change its registered capital and amend the Articles of Association. The relevant matters are expected to relate to the 2026 restricted stock incentive plan, share registration and adjustments to corporate-governance documents. The research notes did not provide the specific number of shares or registered-capital amount to be changed; the main text of the relevant August 28, 2026 announcement should prevail.

4.5 Director Xu Bin Increased His Shareholding

On August 28, 2026, director Xu Bin purchased 15,500 Guomao shares through the secondary market at an average transaction price of approximately RMB 13.60 per share, involving approximately RMB 210,800 and representing approximately 0.0023% of the company’s total share capital. After the purchase, publicly disclosed data showed that he held approximately 43.846 million shares. The research notes stated that no newly disclosed large-scale purchase plan by the controlling shareholder or actual controller from August to September 2026 had been identified, nor had any new large-scale reduction plan during the same period been identified.

4.6 No New Share Repurchase or Earnings Forecast Announcement Recently Identified

As of September 14, 2026, no newly disclosed share-repurchase plan, repurchase progress announcement or repurchase cancellation announcement from August to September 2026 had been identified. No earnings forecast, earnings pre-increase, earnings pre-decrease or earnings flash report for the third quarter or full year of 2026 had been identified. The latest formal earnings disclosure remains the first-half report released on August 28, 2026.

4.7 No Major Acquisition or Asset Restructuring Recently Identified

From August to September 2026, no newly disclosed major asset purchase, major asset restructuring or external acquisition by the company had been identified. The company’s previous equity-transfer arrangement involving Aixizhijie (Hangzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. was a historical matter from December 2025. The company proposed waiving its pre-emptive right to acquire a 2.5% equity interest, which was to be transferred for RMB 500,000 to Lu Yipin, a company director, vice president, head of finance and board secretary. The company’s 20% interest in the investee was to remain unchanged. This matter was not a newly occurring acquisition event in September 2026.

4.8 No New Regulatory Penalties or Inquiry Matters Identified

As of September 14, 2026, no new announcement had been identified showing that the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the China Securities Regulatory Commission had issued a regulatory warning, regulatory work letter, inquiry letter, disciplinary sanction or administrative penalty to Guomao Co., Ltd. Guomao Co., Ltd. was included in the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s list of margin-financing and securities-lending stocks for the second quarter of 2026. This was an information item relating to the trading system, rather than a regulatory penalty or special regulatory measure targeting the company.

4.9 Limitations on the Timing of the Recent Announcement Search

As of September 14, 2026, publicly disclosed announcements indicated that the company’s recent matters mainly concerned the first-half 2026 report and profit distribution, the director’s share purchase, the extraordinary shareholders’ meeting, and adjustments to registered capital and the Articles of Association. The research notes indicated that certain announcement databases were last updated on September 8, 2026. Therefore, the conclusion that no new major announcements were identified between September 9 and September 14 is a provisional judgment based on the current public search results. The official report should refer to the real-time search results on the Shanghai Stock Exchange announcement page.

5. Share-Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Guomao Co., Ltd. closed at RMB 12.83, below MA5, MA10 and MA20. The share price had continued to retreat after peaking on August 31, indicating weak short-term technical conditions. It was close to the Bollinger lower band at approximately RMB 12.57 and the recent low-price area, but had not effectively broken below them. Turnover value had declined materially from the volume-backed rise on August 31. Average turnover value over the most recent five trading days was approximately RMB 57.58 million, with an average turnover rate of approximately 0.71%, showing no clear sign of a sustained volume-backed breakout. Shareholder data as of June 30, 2026 showed relatively high top-10 shareholder ownership, with the structure primarily concentrated among the controlling shareholder and core individual shareholders, while participation by public funds and northbound-style institutions was relatively limited.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is only a subjective scenario analysis based on historical prices, moving averages, trading volume and fund-flow data. It does not constitute investment advice or a definitive forecast of future share prices. The observation window for the coming week is September 14–18, 2026.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50%–60%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and fund-flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Reference range of RMB 12.60–13.45. Trigger conditions include the RMB 12.60–12.85 support zone holding; turnover value remaining within the recent normal range of approximately RMB 45 million–80 million; a rebound failing to break the RMB 13.40–13.65 resistance zone; and no clear, sustained positive catalyst from the robotics, reducer or general equipment sectors. If this scenario occurs, the share price may fluctuate repeatedly around RMB 12.80–13.30, characterized by weak repair and position rotation.
• Weak downside movement (medium weight, approximately 30%–40%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and fund-flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Reference range of RMB 12.00–12.60. Trigger conditions include the closing price decisively breaking support near RMB 12.60; turnover value on down days materially exceeding recent averages and reaching more than RMB 80 million–100 million; continuous net main-fund outflows; or simultaneous weakness in the general equipment and robotics-related sectors. If the strong support zone at RMB 12.00–12.45 fails to attract meaningful buying, and RMB 12.00 is also decisively broken, the short-term price structure will deteriorate further.
• Stronger rebound (relatively low weight, approximately 10%–20%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and fund-flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Reference range of RMB 13.45–14.20. Trigger conditions include the share price reclaiming the RMB 13.40–13.65 resistance zone; daily turnover value expanding to approximately RMB 100 million or more and remaining elevated for at least two consecutive days; simultaneous strength in the robotics and reducer-related sectors; and main-fund flows shifting from net outflows to continuous net inflows. If RMB 13.65 is decisively broken with volume confirmation, the next observation range may move up to RMB 13.90–14.20. Without volume confirmation, a one-day rebound should not be directly interpreted as a trend reversal.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

From September 1 to September 11, 2026, daily turnover value ranged from approximately RMB 43.97 million to RMB 146 million. Turnover value on September 11 was RMB 70.926 million, with a turnover rate of 0.84%. Average turnover value over the most recent five trading days was approximately RMB 57.58 million, with an average turnover rate of approximately 0.71%. Shareholder data as of June 30, 2026 lagged by approximately at least one quarter: the top 10 shareholders held approximately 67.42% of total shares, while the controlling shareholder and core individual shareholders together held more than 60%. Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited and certain public ETFs were among the top 10 shareholders, but most individual institutional holdings were approximately 0.6%–1.3%. This indicates relatively high shareholding concentration, but publicly available data suggests that institutional holdings contribute relatively little to overall concentration. Against a backdrop of low turnover, order-book support during rapid declines or rebounds may be more affected by single-day fund-flow changes. The shareholder structure may have changed because of subsequent block trades, ETF rebalancing or other shareholder changes.

If daily turnover value continues to expand to approximately RMB 100 million or more while the share price stabilizes above RMB 13.65, this may serve as a volume-price confirmation signal of increased fund participation. If turnover value reaches RMB 80 million–100 million or more during a decline, the risk of a volume-backed breakdown should be monitored.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: Monitor whether the RMB 12.60–12.85 area shows a decline in volume accompanied by stabilization, and whether the RMB 12.00–12.45 strong-support zone remains effective.
• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: Monitor whether the RMB 13.40–13.65 area can be reclaimed and held, in order to distinguish a technical rebound from a genuine improvement in trend.
• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: Monitor whether daily turnover value continues to expand to approximately RMB 100 million or more and whether this is accompanied by the share price holding above RMB 13.65.
• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: Monitor whether main-fund flows show continuous net inflows or outflows. However, the net main-fund figure as of September 11, 2026 has not been reliably cross-verified.

The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices will also be affected by news flow, fund flows, the broader market environment and other factors. Technical indicators themselves have lagging characteristics and limitations. This analysis does not guarantee actual future price movements and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and assume their own investment risk.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Overview

General-purpose reducers are basic industrial transmission components with broad applications, numerous customers and complex product models. Demand is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, fixed-asset investment and manufacturing capital expenditure. The industry is characterized by price competition in the mid- and low-end segments, high-end technological upgrading and the concentration of resources among leading companies. Foreign brands such as SEW and Flender possess technological and brand advantages in China’s high-end reducer market. Domestic companies are expanding in the mid-range market through cost performance, delivery speed, service and localized customization, while also seeking to break into high-end products.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The industry is in a bottoming adjustment or weak recovery phase, with homogenized competition and price wars in the mid- and low-end markets.
• Key barriers include accumulated products and models, manufacturing processes such as gear machining and heat treatment, supply-chain capabilities, sales channels and delivery capabilities, as well as branding, certification and customer onboarding.
• Guomao’s main competitive advantages lie in localization, cost performance, delivery speed, a broad range of product models and channel coverage. Its weaknesses mainly include high-end brand recognition, technological accumulation in certain high-precision products and overseas market depth.
• Overseas revenue accounted for approximately 0.9% of the company’s total revenue in 2025, while overseas sales gross margin was 38.63%. However, the revenue base was small, so this alone cannot establish that the company has formed a mature overseas profitability model.

6.3 Major Competitors

Guomao Co., Ltd.’s core comparative advantages are its scale in general-purpose reducers, product-model coverage, channel network, delivery speed and localized cost performance. Its main competitive pressures come from price competition in mid- and low-end products and the technological and brand advantages of foreign brands such as SEW and Flender in the high-end market. Its business overlap with Ningbo Dongli is concentrated in general-purpose reducers and industrial gearboxes, while its overlap with Zhongda Leader, Leader Harmonious Drive Systems and Shuanghuan Driveline is more concentrated in precision reducers, robotics and intelligent equipment. The company’s precision-reducer business remains in the cultivation and ramp-up stage, and it is not yet possible to determine whether it has generated scale or profit contributions comparable to those of traditional general-purpose reducers.

7. Risk Factors

• Geared reducers accounted for approximately 76.0% of revenue from principal operations in 2025, but gross margin had fallen to 17.95%. If homogenized competition and price wars in the mid- and low-end segments continue, product prices and traditional-business margins may come under further pressure.
• Direct-material costs were RMB 1.551 billion in 2025, accounting for 73.79% of total costs, and mainly comprised castings, forgings, motors and bearings. If the prices of these inputs rise while downstream price competition limits cost pass-through, earnings recovery may fall short of expectations.
• Precision reducers and Modoli are important directions for product upgrading, but precision reducers remain in the cultivation and ramp-up stage, while Modoli previously underperformed expectations and incurred goodwill impairment. If orders, customer validation or capacity ramp-up fall short of expectations, improvement in the business mix may fail to materialize.
• Domestic sales revenue accounted for approximately 99.1% of revenue from principal operations in 2025, while overseas revenue accounted for only approximately 0.9%. Although overseas sales had a relatively high gross margin, the revenue base was very small, and overseas channels and the profitability model have not yet matured. The company therefore cannot rely on this business as a stable source of international growth.
• According to the 2024 annual-report definition, accounts receivable from distributors and their recommended customers plus directly developed customers totaled approximately RMB 374 million. The bad-debt provision ratio for directly developed customers was 31.06%, higher than the 11.83% ratio for distributors and their recommended customers. Continued growth in accounts receivable or deterioration in collections could pressure cash flow and asset impairment.
• Although net cash flow from operating activities turned positive at approximately RMB 146 million in the first half of 2026, the materials also indicate that working-capital items such as accounts receivable require continued monitoring. First-half results were equivalent to only approximately 58.8% of full-year 2025 net profit attributable to the parent, and full-year performance will still depend on second-half demand, gross margin and expense control.
• As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 12.83 and the dynamic P/E ratio was approximately 32.16x. The valuation was not low by traditional manufacturing-sector standards. If earnings recovery falls below institutional forecasts, the current valuation may face repricing pressure.
• The share price declined from RMB 14.46 on August 31, 2026 to RMB 12.83 and had fallen below MA5, MA10 and MA20. Recent turnover was generally not high. If the share price breaks below RMB 12.60 on heavy volume or further breaks below the RMB 12.00–12.45 support zone, short-term price-volatility risk may increase.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Guomao Co., Ltd.’s growth drivers mainly include the recovery of demand for general-purpose reducers, scale-manufacturing and channel advantages, improvement in the product mix toward heavy-duty and high-power products, and the gradual ramp-up of precision planetary and harmonic reducers. In the first half of 2026, both revenue and profit growth improved from 2025, while operating cash flow turned positive, providing interim validation of earnings recovery. The company has proposed a cash dividend of RMB 1.20 per 10 shares, equivalent to approximately 57.97% of first-half net profit attributable to the parent, but the plan remains subject to shareholders’ meeting approval and cannot yet be regarded as formally implemented.

The sustainability of future earnings improvement will depend on whether price competition in traditional geared reducers eases, whether gross margin can recover, whether orders and capacity for precision reducers can be realized, and whether accounts receivable and operating cash flow remain healthy. Institutions forecast a CAGR of approximately 13% for net profit attributable to the parent in 2026–2028, but the number of institutions covered is limited. In addition, Soochow Securities has lowered part of its earnings forecasts because of intense industry competition, so the forecasts remain subject to considerable uncertainty.

In the short term, the share price has broken below multiple short-term moving averages and is approaching the Bollinger lower band. RMB 12.60–12.85 and RMB 12.00–12.45 are support zones indicated by the data, while RMB 13.40–13.65 is the main resistance zone. Technical trends, industry conditions, company performance and valuation should be assessed together; trends should not be judged on the basis of a single indicator.

Data Sources

• Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report
• Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)_Company Announcements_Guomao Co., Ltd.: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)_Company Announcements_Guomao Co., Ltd.: 2021 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)_Company Announcements_Guomao Co., Ltd.: 2023 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)_Company Announcements_Guomao Co., Ltd.: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Ningbo Dongli (002164)_Company Announcements_Ningbo Dongli: 2024 Annual Report Summary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Zhongda Leader (002896)_Company Announcements_Zhongda Leader: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Company Announcements_Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Shuanghuan Driveline (002472)_Company Announcements_Shuanghuan Driveline: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board Listed Companies
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Latest Developments_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Guomao Co., Ltd.: First-Half Net Profit Attributable to the Parent of RMB 138 Million, Up 29.4% Year on Year_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Financial Report Express | Guomao Co., Ltd.’s First-Half 2026 Net Profit Increased 29.39%, Outpacing Revenue; Operating Cash Flow Turned Positive; Accounts Receivable Increased Nearly 50%_Stockstar
• Securities Code: 603915 Security Abbreviation: Guomao Co., Ltd. Announcement No.: 2026-016
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Everbright Securities—Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) First-Half 2026 Results Review: General-Purpose Reducer Market Share Increased, Precision Reducers Ramping Up Rapidly—260903
• Research Report Indicator Updates—Research Reports—Stock Channel—Stockstar
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts—Investing.com
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) P/E Ratio | Valuation | Fundamentals—Lixinger
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Latest Developments_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) All Announcements—Lixinger
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)_News and Developments—Stockstar
• Guomao Co., Ltd. Proposes Cash Dividend of RMB 1.2 per 10 Shares_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915): Notice of the Second Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026—CFi.CN
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Major Shareholder Ownership Changes
• Securities Code: 603915
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Corporate Events_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Guomao Co., Ltd._Individual Stock Calendar_Eastmoney Data Channel
• Securities Code: 603915  Security Abbreviation: Guomao Co., Ltd.  Announcement No.: 2025-039
• Regulatory Measures | Shanghai Stock Exchange
• Notice on Matters Relating to the Regular Adjustment of Margin-Financing and Securities-Lending Underlying Securities for the Second Quarter of 2026 | Shanghai Stock Exchange
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)_Stock Quotes, Quotes Homepage_CFi.CN
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)—Historical Trading Data | Daban Ke
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915)—Share Price and News—Google Finance
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Technical Analysis, Future Forecasts and Trading Recommendations—Investing.com
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (SH603915)_Individual Stock Details and Fund-Flow Analysis—Luwei Review
• Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) Shareholder Research_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services

This report was automatically searched, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the September 11, 2026 close; certain technical indicators and shareholder data are subject to varying degrees of lag, as detailed in the descriptions of each field. Timing differences may exist. Specific data should be based on the company’s formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and assume their own investment risks.