Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (Conch Cement) (00914)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Cement and Building Materials Manufacturing　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　As of the Hong Kong market close on September 11, 2026; certain technical indicators reflect data refreshed by Investing.com at 02:18 GMT on September 11, 2026 and may not fully reflect the final closing price for the day.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Conch Cement’s latest results show that its core operations are under significant pressure: in the first half of 2026, revenue under IFRS was RMB 36.927 billion, down 10.88% year on year, while net profit attributable to the Company’s shareholders was RMB 2.720 billion, down 41.85% year on year. Under Chinese Accounting Standards, net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.527 billion, down 42.76%, while net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was RMB 1.902 billion, down 54.69%. During the same period, self-produced cement and clinker sales volume was approximately 121 million tonnes, down 3.96% year on year, while self-produced product sales revenue was approximately RMB 28.635 billion, down 16.49%, reflecting the direct impact of weak demand, lower selling prices and the industry cycle trough on profitability.

The Company’s long-term competitiveness is primarily derived from limestone mine resources, clinker and cement scale, low-cost manufacturing capabilities, and port and waterway logistics networks along rivers and coasts. In 2025, unit clinker cost decreased 11.12% to RMB 166.42 per tonne, with fuel and power costs accounting for 52.56% of unit cost. Against a backdrop of declining revenue, the Company’s gross margin increased from approximately 21.70% in 2024 to approximately 24.16% in 2025, while net margin rose from approximately 8.85% to approximately 10.26%. This indicates that the previous earnings recovery was mainly driven by cost control, changes in energy prices, and growth in overseas and export businesses, rather than rapid volume growth or significant price increases.

As of September 11, 2026, Conch Cement’s H-share closing price was HKD 16.49, with a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 87.02 billion, a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 11.59x, a P/B ratio of approximately 0.394x and a dividend yield of approximately 5.15%. The share price was close to the 52-week low range of approximately HKD 16.15 to HKD 27.14. The Company continues to repurchase H shares and approved an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share for 2026. The proposed revision to the 2026–2027 shareholder return plan states that, subject to the relevant conditions, annual cash dividends plus repurchases should in principle be no less than 50% of net profit attributable to shareholders. However, the arrangement remains subject to shareholders’ approval, and RMB 0.90 represents a minimum cash-dividend arrangement rather than a confirmed actual dividend amount.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Cement production and sales: mainly 32.5-grade, 42.5-grade and 52.5-grade cement
• Commercial clinker production and sales
• Aggregates and manufactured sand
• Ready-mixed concrete
• Consumer building materials: dry-mixed mortar, tile adhesive, putty powder and others
• Solid-waste treatment, environmental protection and new-energy businesses
• Trading business
• Overseas and export businesses

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

Conch Cement occupies an upper-middle position in the cement value chain. The Company owns limestone mines, clinker production lines, large-scale cement capacity, and port and waterway transportation networks along rivers and coasts. It has also expanded into aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, consumer building materials, environmental protection and new energy. Traditional cement operations remain a capital-intensive, midstream manufacturing business. Products are regional and cyclical, and pricing power is not absolute. The Company’s relative advantages are mainly reflected in mine-resource security, low-cost clinker production, centralized procurement, energy and logistics management, and economies of scale.

• Major inputs include limestone and other mining raw materials, sandstone, clay and other cement additives, coal, alternative fuels and other fuels, electricity, packaging materials, as well as transportation and equipment-maintenance services.
• In 2025, unit cost for self-produced cement and clinker was RMB 166.42 per tonne, down 11.12% year on year. Fuel and power costs were RMB 87.47 per tonne, accounting for 52.56% of total cost and representing the largest cost item.
• Raw-material costs were RMB 32.53 per tonne, accounting for 19.55%; depreciation was RMB 16.08 per tonne, accounting for 9.66%; labor costs were RMB 12.57 per tonne, accounting for 7.55%; and other costs were RMB 17.77 per tonne, accounting for 10.68%.
• The Company has strong limestone mine-resource security, while its limestone mines and clinker production lines have substantial regional barriers to entry. However, inputs such as coal, electricity and transportation are procured on a more market-oriented basis, and the Company does not have complete pricing power over these costs.
• In 2025, the Company reduced unit clinker costs through centralized procurement, optimization of raw-material and fuel procurement channels, strengthened logistics controls, increased use of alternative fuels and technological upgrades.
• The research notes do not disclose supplier concentration data for major raw materials or energy, making it impossible to assess supplier concentration on this basis.
• Downstream customers include infrastructure projects, real-estate developers and urban-renewal projects, ready-mixed concrete companies, distributors, rural construction and general industrial customers, as well as overseas customers.
• Cement is a regional, transport-intensive product. Its sales radius is constrained by transportation methods, freight costs and local supply-demand conditions. The Company expands its sales radius through river and coastal transportation and waterway distribution, while its ports, clinker bases and waterway network help reduce cross-regional transportation costs.
• Cement is not a strongly branded consumer product, and customers are generally price-sensitive. Regional supply and demand, staggered production and industry self-discipline have a significant impact on product prices. Large infrastructure and ready-mixed concrete customers may have relatively strong purchasing bargaining power.
• In 2025, direct-sales revenue was RMB 40.513 billion, with a gross margin of 30.32%; distribution revenue was RMB 28.906 billion, with a gross margin of 23.26%. Direct-sales gross margin was approximately 7.06 percentage points higher than distribution gross margin, indicating that distribution channels require a share of profits.
• Regarding customer concentration, the 2025 financial statements disclosed that there was no significant dependence on a single customer during the year. However, the available materials do not provide the combined sales contribution of the top five customers. Therefore, it cannot be inferred that the top-five customer share is very low. Specific data should be based on the customer-concentration note in the complete annual report; the top-five customer data are absent from the research notes.
• Structural bargaining pressure in the industry mainly arises from weak regional supply and demand, weak real-estate demand, excess industry capacity and price competition, rather than the annual price-reduction clauses commonly seen in the automotive-parts industry with vehicle manufacturers.
• As of December 31, 2025, accounts receivable were RMB 2.922 billion, representing approximately 1.14% of total assets; prepayments were RMB 695 million, representing approximately 0.27% of total assets; and inventories were RMB 7.597 billion, representing approximately 2.97% of total assets. Accounts receivable decreased 22.55% from the end of 2024, prepayments decreased 26.46%, and inventories decreased 6.31%. Based on revenue of RMB 82.532 billion, year-end accounts receivable were equivalent to approximately 3.54% of annual revenue; based on the RMB 8.113 billion net profit attributable to shareholders cited in the research notes, they were equivalent to approximately 36.0% of net profit attributable to shareholders. This indicates that year-end collection and working-capital occupation at the consolidated level were relatively controllable. However, year-end balances cannot substitute for annual accounts-receivable days and do not reflect seasonal fluctuations. Complete accounts-receivable turnover days were not found in the available materials. It should also be noted that the research notes cite 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.464 billion in the earnings-trend section, versus RMB 8.113 billion in the working-capital section, indicating a difference in scope or data. The formal annual report should prevail.
• The research notes do not disclose the concentration of the top five suppliers. For 2025, they only disclose that there was no significant dependence on a single customer and do not provide the combined sales contribution of the top five customers. This missing data prevents a conclusion that customer concentration is low; the complete 2025 annual report should be consulted.

The Company is positioned in the upper-middle portion of the cement value chain. Its traditional business is capital-intensive, regional and cyclical midstream manufacturing, rather than a typical upstream resource business with high gross margins or a downstream branded business with high gross margins. Its relative cost competitiveness comes from limestone mines, clinker scale, centralized procurement, low-cost manufacturing and river and coastal logistics networks. Future profit improvement will mainly depend on control of coal, electricity and logistics costs; the use of alternative fuels and new energy; improved price competition resulting from staggered production and the exit of inefficient capacity; and a higher contribution from aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, consumer building materials and overseas businesses.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The latest financial report is the interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, announced on August 26, 2026. It was prepared under IFRS and is unaudited. Comparative figures for the prior-year period were restated due to business combinations under common control. Basic EPS for the first half of 2026 was RMB 0.52, gross profit was RMB 6.66237 billion, profit before tax was RMB 3.45918 billion, and net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 4.5159 billion. Under Chinese Accounting Standards, first-half revenue was RMB 36.92687 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 2.52671 billion, down 42.76% year on year, net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was RMB 1.90212 billion, down 54.69% year on year, and basic EPS was RMB 0.48.

Revenue and profit were both under significant pressure in the first half of 2026. The decline in net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items under Chinese Accounting Standards was greater than the decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating substantial pressure on core profitability. In 2025, revenue continued to decline, but net profit attributable to shareholders under Chinese Accounting Standards was RMB 8.11307 billion, up 5.42% year on year, while net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was RMB 7.58784 billion, up 3.03% year on year. Basic EPS for 2025 was RMB 1.54. Net profit attributable to shareholders differs under IFRS and Chinese Accounting Standards. Hong Kong-share valuation comparisons should therefore use consistent accounting standards and earnings definitions.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

The multi-institution consensus forecasts compiled by etnet in early September 2026 indicate average net-profit forecasts of RMB 7.738 billion, RMB 8.446 billion and RMB 8.369 billion for 2026–2028, respectively. The 2026 net-profit forecast range is RMB 4.864 billion to RMB 10.1088 billion; the 2027 range is RMB 5.765 billion to RMB 11.2193 billion; and the 2028 range is RMB 7.076 billion to RMB 11.6183 billion. As another institutional aggregation, Tonghuashun showed on September 10, 2026 that average net-profit forecasts for 2026–2028 were RMB 7.608 billion, RMB 8.732 billion and RMB 9.976 billion, respectively, while average EPS forecasts were RMB 1.44, RMB 1.65 and RMB 1.88, respectively. The research notes do not provide cross-validated consensus revenue forecasts for 2026–2028 and therefore do not present revenue forecasts.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

As of September 10, 2026, the Hong Kong closing price was HKD 16.64, with a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 89.55 billion. The TTM P/E ratio varied from approximately 11.8x to 12.5x due to differences in financial-reporting bases, restated figures, exchange rates and update times; some platforms showed approximately 14x. The P/B ratio was approximately 0.41x to 0.42x, and the dividend yield was approximately 5%. Lixinger showed a share price of HKD 16.97, a P/E ratio of approximately 12.50x, a P/B ratio of approximately 0.41x and a dividend yield of approximately 4.99% as of September 8, 2026. Tiger Brokers showed a P/E ratio of approximately 9.94x and a P/B ratio of approximately 0.42x. The 2026 interim dividend was RMB 0.13 per share; the actual Hong Kong-share dividend yield will also depend on the RMB/HKD exchange rate, ex-dividend date and final full-year dividend. Based on the September 10, 2026 share price and institutional earnings forecasts, estimated forward P/E ratios for 2026, 2027 and 2028 were approximately 11–12x, around 10x and approximately 9–11x, respectively. Because forecast EPS is stated in RMB while the share price is in HKD, these forward P/E ratios are estimated ranges rather than precise HKD-based valuations. Among the seven brokerage reports compiled by etnet, five were Buy and two were Hold, producing an average rating of 2.29 and an overall bias toward Buy. Target prices ranged from HKD 18.20 to HKD 28.00, with a simple average of approximately HKD 23.8. However, institutions showed significant disagreement regarding cement prices, demand, supply contraction and the pace of earnings recovery.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 First-Half 2026 Results Under Pressure, with Revenue and Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders Declining Year on Year

On August 26, 2026, the Company disclosed interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026. Under Chinese Accounting Standards, revenue was RMB 36.927 billion, down 10.88% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 2.527 billion, down 42.76%; net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was approximately RMB 1.902 billion, down 54.69%; and basic EPS was RMB 0.48. Under IFRS, net profit attributable to shareholders for the period was RMB 2.720 billion, down 41.85% year on year. First-half self-produced cement and clinker sales volume was approximately 121 million tonnes, down 3.96% year on year, while self-produced product sales revenue was approximately RMB 28.635 billion, down 16.49%. The decline in results was mainly related to weak cement demand, lower product prices and the industry cycle being at a trough.

4.2 Continued H-Share Repurchases in Early September, with 2.50 Million Shares Repurchased in Total

According to next-day disclosure reports filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and compiled by financial media, the Company continued repurchasing H shares from September 1 to September 10, 2026: 500,000 shares on September 1 for approximately HKD 8.4209 million at approximately HKD 16.78–16.91; 480,000 shares on September 2 for approximately HKD 7.9591 million at approximately HKD 16.54–16.66; 290,000 shares on September 3 for approximately HKD 4.7899 million at approximately HKD 16.46–16.58; 400,000 shares on September 7 for approximately HKD 6.6614 million at approximately HKD 16.61–16.68; 200,000 shares on September 8 for approximately HKD 3.3656 million at approximately HKD 16.76–16.88; 190,000 shares on September 9 for approximately HKD 3.2254 million at approximately HKD 16.96–17.00; and 440,000 shares on September 10 for approximately HKD 7.3438 million at approximately HKD 16.64–16.77. Total repurchases during the period amounted to 2.50 million shares and approximately HKD 41.7661 million. The shares repurchased on September 10 were intended to be held as treasury shares, with a total consideration of HKD 7,343,825.

4.3 Substantial Year-to-Date Repurchases, with Shares Mainly Held as Treasury Shares

Public reports as of September 10, 2026 indicate that the Company had conducted multiple repurchases since the beginning of 2026. As of September 9, cumulative year-to-date repurchases amounted to approximately 12.955 million shares, with an aggregate value of approximately HKD 221 million. This cumulative figure was compiled by Securities Times Data Treasure based on Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcements and may differ slightly from subsequent monthly returns or other statistical definitions. Repurchase frequency increased significantly in early September, but the repurchased shares are currently mainly held as treasury shares rather than immediately cancelled. Therefore, the immediate improvement to EPS is limited.

4.4 Board Approved 2026 Interim Dividend, with H Shares Receiving Approximately HKD 0.15026 per Share

On August 26, 2026, the Company’s Board approved an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share for 2026, inclusive of tax. Based on an exchange rate of HKD 1 to RMB 0.86515, the interim dividend for H shares was approximately HKD 0.15026 per share, inclusive of tax. The record date is September 15, 2026. The register of H-share shareholders will be closed from September 10 to September 15, 2026, and the expected payment date is September 30, 2026. H-shareholders are expected to receive the dividend in HKD, while Stock Connect investors will receive it in RMB in accordance with the relevant arrangements.

4.5 Proposed Increase in 2026–2027 Shareholder Returns, Subject to Shareholders’ Approval

The Company’s Board approved revisions to the 2025–2027 shareholder dividend-return plan. For 2026 and 2027, subject to the cash-dividend conditions and relevant regulatory requirements, annual cash dividends plus share repurchases should in principle be no less than 50% of annual net profit attributable to shareholders, while the cash dividend should be no less than RMB 0.90 per share. If annual EPS is below RMB 0.90, the shortfall is proposed to be made up from accumulated undistributed profits from prior years. The arrangement remains subject to shareholders’ approval and is currently a policy revision approved by the Board but not yet finally effective. RMB 0.90 is a proposed minimum cash-dividend amount and is not a confirmed future actual dividend.

4.6 Company Plans to Hold 2026 Interim Results Briefing on September 15

The Company plans to hold its 2026 interim results briefing from 9:30 to 11:30 on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, through the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s SSE Roadshow Center. The briefing will use video livestreaming and online interaction, and investors may ask questions regarding first-half operating results, financial condition, industry demand, product prices, capital expenditure, repurchases and dividends. As of the date of the research notes, the briefing had not yet been held, and the Company’s further explanations regarding second-half volume, pricing, gross margin and profit trends had not been made public.

4.7 Controlling Shareholder Previously Increased Its A-Share Holdings, Providing a Reference for Shareholder Confidence and Capital Operations

Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd. announced an acquisition plan on February 25, 2026, proposing to acquire the Company’s A shares through centralized bidding on the Shanghai Stock Exchange within six months, for an amount of no less than RMB 700 million and no more than RMB 1.4 billion. Subsequent public information showed that by around April 9, 2026, Conch Group had cumulatively acquired approximately 52.92002 million A shares for approximately RMB 1.280 billion, approaching and falling within the upper range of the plan. This was an increase by the controlling shareholder at the A-share level. However, because the A shares and H shares belong to the same listed entity, it provides Hong Kong investors in 00914 with a reference regarding shareholder confidence and capital operations.

4.8 JPMorgan’s Long Position Ratio Changed in Early September; Original Disclosure Documents Not Yet Obtained

Market information indicates that JPMorgan’s long-position ratio in Conch Cement H shares declined to 11.90% on September 8, 2026, and then increased to approximately 12.19% on September 9. This information mainly comes from media reports relaying notifications of interests disclosed to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As of the date of the research notes, the complete original disclosure notices had not been obtained, so the change should not be interpreted as a sustained trend of accumulation or reduction. Relevant holdings may include securities lending, derivatives or other equity interests and cannot simply be equated with spot transactions in ordinary shares.

4.9 Acquisition of Cement Assets from Wanwei High-Tech and Mengwei Technology Remains in Progress

On July 2, 2026, the Company disclosed related-party transactions and asset-acquisition arrangements. Relevant wholly owned subsidiaries propose to acquire the assets and liabilities associated with the cement business to be carved out by Wanwei High-Tech, as well as the assets and liabilities associated with the cement plant branch of Mengwei Technology. The total consideration for the two transactions is approximately RMB 619.2391 million. The final transfer consideration will be confirmed based on transitional-period audits and the assumption of related receivables, payables and other liabilities, and will not exceed RMB 691.0432 million. The transactions involve cement and mining assets and are intended in part to promote regional capacity integration and reduce horizontal competition. As of September 11, 2026, no latest announcement confirming completion of delivery or final price confirmation had been found.

4.10 No New Major Acquisition, Material Regulatory Penalty or Listing-Status Change Announcement Found as of September 11

As of September 11, 2026, no new major acquisition or asset-restructuring announcement in September 2026 had been found. Nor had any material regulatory penalty specifically relating to 00914, trading suspension, listing-status change or major compliance-risk announcement been identified. This conclusion is based on Hong Kong Stock Exchange HKEXnews and major financial-information pages searched as of that date and does not mean that no documents existed that had not yet been indexed by search engines. Recent industry factors include weak real-estate investment and new-start demand, potential support from infrastructure and urban-renewal policies, and the importance of supply-side constraints, staggered production and regional coordination to product-price recovery.

5. Share-Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Conch Cement’s Hong Kong closing price was HKD 16.49, near the lower end of the 52-week range of approximately HKD 16.15–27.14. The short-term price was close to the estimated lower Bollinger Band, while RSI was neutral, indicating that a typical oversold condition had not yet formed. However, MACD was negative, and MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100 and MA200 were all above the share price, leaving the overall technical picture weak. Volume of approximately 12.40 million shares on September 11 was clearly above the three-month average of approximately 6.95 million shares, and the share price fell 1.55% against turnover of approximately HKD 206 million, indicating a high-volume decline. Continued company repurchases provide some marginal downside support, but the short-selling ratio, changes in institutional holdings and recent high-volume decline indicate that short-term selling pressure has not yet been fully absorbed. Overall, HKD 16.45–16.60 is the first near-term support zone, while HKD 16.15–16.30 is the more important strong-support area. Above the market, layered technical resistance exists at HKD 16.78–17.03 and HKD 17.10–17.50.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is a subjective scenario analysis based on the closing data, historical prices and technical indicators as of September 11, 2026. It does not constitute investment advice or a definitive forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weightings, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weighting, approximately 50%–60%; a subjective heuristic weighting rather than a statistical probability): Expected range of approximately HKD 16.45–16.95. Trigger conditions include buying support emerging at HKD 16.45–16.60, no decisive break below HKD 16.30, and volume falling back to approximately 5–8 million shares, indicating a temporary easing of selling pressure. RSI is near neutral and the share price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, but MACD and medium-term moving averages remain weak. Therefore, repeated trading at lower levels should be watched for rather than an immediate one-way trend.
• Weak downward movement (medium weighting, approximately 30%; a subjective heuristic weighting rather than a statistical probability): Expected range of approximately HKD 16.15–16.45. Trigger conditions include the share price closing below HKD 16.45 on a sustained basis, daily volume remaining above approximately 10 million shares, and short-selling activity remaining elevated or the cement sector continuing to weaken. If HKD 16.45 support fails, the share price may retest the HKD 16.15–16.30 52-week-low and estimated lower Bollinger Band area.
• Stronger rebound (low weighting, approximately 10%–20%; a subjective heuristic weighting rather than a statistical probability): Expected range of approximately HKD 16.95–17.30. Trigger conditions include regaining HKD 16.78 and breaking through HKD 17.00–17.03 on volume exceeding approximately 10 million shares. If accompanied by broad strength in the cement sector, continued company repurchases or improvement in industry prices, the rebound would be more credible. After a break above HKD 17.03, HKD 17.10–17.30 may be observed, although MA100 at HKD 17.12 and MA200 around HKD 17.50 may still create medium-term resistance.

③ Funding and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, volume was approximately 12.40 million shares, trading value approximately HKD 206 million and turnover approximately 0.23%. The three-month average volume was approximately 6.95 million shares, while volume on ordinary trading days was generally approximately 2.8–7.0 million shares. Recent high-volume days exceeded approximately 10 million shares. The Company’s total market capitalization was approximately HKD 87.02 billion, but its low turnover means that the short-term price may be relatively sensitive to the broader market, sector movements and institutional rebalancing. The Company repurchased 500,000 shares on September 11 for approximately HKD 8.2735 million, a limited amount relative to full-day turnover. Regarding ownership, the top 10 shareholders held approximately 66.99% of total share capital as of June 30, 2026, with Conch Group and HKSCC Nominees Limited together accounting for approximately 61.9%. However, the H-share nominee account cannot be broken down into ultimate investors, and the quarterly lag means that repurchases, institutional buying and selling and Stock Connect changes may have altered the actual ownership structure. Public funds, index funds and other institutions remain among the top 10 shareholders, but all H-share investors cannot be identified from nominee accounts. In practical terms, apparent concentration is high, but the H-share nominee account may be internally dispersed. Short-term liquidity and price performance should therefore still be assessed together with volume and bid-side support.

Observable volume-confirmation signals: if the share price breaks above HKD 16.95–17.03 with daily volume continuously reaching approximately 10 million shares or more, and the closing price does not fall back below HKD 16.78, this may indicate stronger buying support. If the share price breaks below HKD 16.45 with volume also exceeding approximately 10 million shares, the move would be more consistent with the release of selling pressure than with bottom confirmation.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the HKD 16.45–16.60 first-support zone holds, and whether a break below it leads toward the HKD 16.15–16.30 strong-support zone.
• Observe whether the share price can regain HKD 16.78 and then break through the HKD 17.00–17.03 resistance zone.
• Observe whether volume reaches approximately 10 million shares or more when key ranges are broken upward or downward; high-volume gains and high-volume declines have different implications.
• Observe whether company repurchases continue and whether repurchases are accompanied by synchronized improvements in price and volume. All of the above are observation frameworks, not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices may also be affected by news flow, capital flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations. This analysis does not guarantee actual future performance and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Conditions

China’s cement industry is characterized by high capital intensity, regionality and cyclicality. Key competitive factors include clinker and cement capacity, limestone mine resources, energy and logistics costs, regional market share, staggered production and industry self-discipline, the ability to extend into aggregates and ready-mixed concrete, and overseas-market presence. National cement output in 2025 was approximately 1.693 billion tonnes, down 6.9% year on year. The industry continues to face shrinking demand, weak real-estate investment, excess supply and price competition. Policy directions include prohibiting new clinker capacity, promoting the exit of inefficient capacity, strengthening staggered production and addressing “involutionary” competition.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Product sales radii in China’s cement industry are constrained by transportation methods, freight costs and regional supply-demand conditions. Clinker bases, mines, ports and waterway networks are important competitive factors.
• National leaders include China National Building Material and its subsidiary Tianshan Cement, as well as Conch Cement. BBMG/Jidong Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Resources Building Materials Technology and Hongshi Group are second-tier or regionally strong players.
• In the 2025 comprehensive-strength ranking of Chinese listed cement companies published by the China Cement Association, Conch Cement ranked first, followed by China National Building Material, Huaxin Cement, Tianshan Cement and China Resources Building Materials Technology. The ranking considers cement sales, total profit, net profit, assets and market capitalization, among other indicators, and is not equivalent to a market-share ranking.
• Capacity comparisons differ by definition. Conch Cement’s 2025 annual report recalculated clinker capacity under the new capacity-replacement rules at approximately 234 million tonnes. The approximately 395 million tonnes of clinker capacity cited in third-party industry statistics is based on a historical definition and cannot be directly combined with the annual-report figure.
• Capacity and market-share information for competitors mainly comes from third-party compilations and is not fully equivalent to the annual-report definitions used by listed companies. Comparisons should distinguish clinker capacity, cement capacity, historical group-level capacity and capacity recalculated under the new capacity-replacement rules.

6.3 Major Competitors

Conch Cement’s competitive advantages are concentrated in limestone mine resources, clinker and cement manufacturing scale, low-cost production, river and coastal logistics networks and cash-flow strength. It has also extended its value chain into aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, consumer building materials, environmental protection and new energy. Compared with China National Building Material and Tianshan Cement, Conch has stronger regional and cost-management advantages, although differences exist in national coverage and the scale of integrated value-chain services. Compared with Huaxin Cement, Conch is stronger in clinker scale and traditional manufacturing costs, while Huaxin has differentiated strengths in overseas markets, aggregates and ready-mixed concrete. Compared with BBMG/Jidong Cement, China Resources Building Materials Technology and Hongshi Group, Conch has strong competitiveness in mining resources, clinker scale and low-cost manufacturing, but its profitability remains affected by domestic demand, regional supply and demand and the cement-price cycle.

7. Risk Factors

• Demand and pricing risk: In the first half of 2026, self-produced cement and clinker sales volume declined 3.96% year on year, while self-produced product sales revenue declined 16.49%. If weak real-estate investment and insufficient support from infrastructure and urban-renewal demand persist, product volume and prices may remain under pressure.
• Industry supply-demand and regional competition risk: China’s cement industry continues to face shrinking demand, excess capacity and price competition. Cement sales radii are constrained by transportation methods, freight costs and regional supply and demand. Even with Conch’s scale and logistics advantages, the Company does not have absolute pricing power. Regional price wars or weaker-than-expected execution of staggered production could compress profits.
• Cost volatility risk: Fuel and power costs were the largest component of unit clinker cost in 2025, at RMB 87.47 per tonne and 52.56%. Coal, electricity, alternative fuels and transportation are procured on a more market-oriented basis. A rebound in energy or logistics costs could offset the benefits of centralized procurement, technological upgrades and alternative fuels.
• Earnings forecast and accounting-basis risk: In the first half of 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders under IFRS and Chinese Accounting Standards was RMB 2.720 billion and RMB 2.527 billion, respectively. The materials also contain two figures for 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 8.464 billion and RMB 8.113 billion. Failure to standardize accounting standards, restated data, exchange rates and forecast definitions may lead to deviations in the assessment of earnings trends and Hong Kong-share valuation.
• Repurchase and shareholder-return execution risk: Recently repurchased shares are mainly held as treasury shares and have not been immediately cancelled, limiting the immediate improvement in EPS. The proposed arrangement that 2026–2027 cash dividends plus repurchases should equal no less than 50% of net profit attributable to shareholders remains subject to shareholders’ approval, and RMB 0.90 is only a proposed minimum cash dividend rather than a confirmed actual dividend.
• M&A integration and transaction-execution risk: The final transfer consideration for the Wanwei High-Tech and Mengwei Technology cement-asset acquisitions will be determined based on transitional-period audits and the assumption of related receivables, payables and other liabilities. Completion of delivery had not been confirmed as of September 11, 2026. Asset quality, assumed liabilities, integration results or changes in the final price could affect the expected benefits of the transactions.
• Technical and market-flow risk: The share price was HKD 16.49 as of September 11, 2026, close to the 52-week low. MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100 and MA200 were all above the share price, while the stock declined on increased volume and short selling accounted for approximately 23% of estimated trading volume. If HKD 16.45 support fails on increased volume, the share price could further test HKD 16.15–16.30. Repurchase value is limited relative to full-day turnover and may not offset short-term selling pressure.
• Incomplete customer and channel information risk: Direct-sales gross margin was 30.32% in 2025, compared with 23.26% for distribution sales, indicating profit sharing through distribution channels. Although the Company disclosed no significant dependence on a single customer, the available materials lack the sales contribution of the top five customers and supplier-concentration data. Customer bargaining power, channel dependence and supply security therefore cannot be fully assessed.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Conch Cement’s growth and earnings-recovery thesis depends on whether cement demand and product prices can stabilize, whether staggered production and the exit of inefficient capacity can improve industry supply and demand, and whether fuel, electricity and logistics costs can remain under control. Expansion into aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, consumer building materials, environmental protection, new energy and overseas businesses could reduce the Company’s reliance on traditional domestic cement operations. The proposed total consideration for the Wanwei High-Tech and Mengwei Technology cement-asset acquisitions is approximately RMB 619 million, with a maximum of approximately RMB 691 million. If completed successfully, the transactions could support regional capacity integration and reduce horizontal competition. However, as of September 11, 2026, no announcement confirming completion of delivery or final price confirmation had been found.

Near-term fundamentals remain weak. Institutions show substantial disagreement over 2026–2028 earnings forecasts. The etnet multi-institution average forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.738 billion, RMB 8.446 billion and RMB 8.369 billion, respectively, while China International Capital Corporation recently cut its 2026 and 2027 forecasts to RMB 6.02 billion and RMB 6.32 billion. The larger decline in first-half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items than in net profit attributable to shareholders also indicates that pressure on core profitability has not been eliminated. In addition, two figures are cited for 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders, RMB 8.464 billion and RMB 8.113 billion. Valuation comparisons should therefore use consistent accounting standards and earnings definitions.

Technically, HKD 16.45–16.60 is the first near-term support zone, while HKD 16.15–16.30 is the more important lower support area. Above the share price, multiple moving-average resistance levels exist at HKD 16.78–17.03 and HKD 17.10–17.50. RSI(14) was 48.578 and had not entered the typical oversold zone; MACD was negative. Volume on September 11 was approximately 12.40 million shares, about 1.8x the three-month average, and the share price declined, indicating that repurchase support and selling pressure coexisted. Going forward, investors should monitor cement volume, prices, costs, industry supply constraints, the continuity of repurchases and the outcome of deliberations on the dividend plan to assess whether earnings expectations can improve.

Data Sources

• Conch Cement (00914)_Company Information_Sina Hong Kong Stocks Free Real-Time Quotes_Sina Finance
• Conch Cement (600585)_Company Announcements_Conch Cement: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• 〖Industry Deep Dive〗Insights 2025: Competitive Landscape and Market Share of China’s Cement Industry (including market concentration and enterprise competitiveness assessment)_Researcher Column_Stocks_Securities Star
• China Cement Association: 2025 Comprehensive-Strength Ranking of Chinese Listed Cement Companies | Tianshan Cement | Huaxin Cement | Conch Cement | China Energy Engineering | West China Cement_Sina Finance
• Research Report on the Current Development Status and Investment Prospects of China’s Cement Industry (2026–2033)_Guanyan Report
• [2025

Environmental, Social and

Governance Report

A](https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0324/2026032401406.pdf?utm_source=openai)

• Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited - Interim / Quarterly Report 2026 | FinancialFilings
• Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited - Earnings Release 2025 | FinancialFilings
• 0914.HK CONCH CEMENT - Company Information - Earnings Forecast Overview - etnet
• Conch Cement (600585) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• CICC: Cuts Conch Cement (00914) Target Price by 14% to HKD 23.8, Maintains “Outperform” Rating_Sina Finance
• Research Note Highlights | Ping An Securities: Maintains “Recommended” Rating on Conch Cement; Valuation and Dividend Yield Attractive_HS Tong
• Conch Cement (00914) P/E | Valuation | Fundamentals - Lixinger
• Listed Company Information Title Search
• Conch Cement (600585)_Company Announcements_Conch Cement: 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance
• Conch Cement (00914.HK) Repurchased HKD 3.2254 Million on September 9; Repurchases Continued for Three Consecutive Days
• https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0826/2026082601665.pdf
• Announcement of Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited on Holding the 2026 Interim Results Briefing_Sina Finance
• Stock Code: 600585
• Conch Cement (00914) Stock Information - Tiger Brokers
• Conch Cement 00914 Stock Quotes, Charts and News - Webull
• https://content.etnet.com.hk/content/sywg/tc/quote.php?code=00914&utm_source=openai
• Conch Cement (0914) Historical Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts_Investing.com
• Conch Cement (0914) Stock Trend and Technical Analysis_Future Forecast_Buy and Sell Recommendations_Investing.com
• Conch Cement (00914) Stock Price, Real-Time Quotes, News and Financial Data_Sina Finance
• Conch Cement (HK0914) Latest Developments_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Conch Cement (00914) P/E | Valuation | Fundamentals - Lixinger
• Conch Cement (600585) Shareholder Research_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services

This report was automatically searched, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the Hong Kong market close on September 11, 2026; certain technical indicators reflect data refreshed by Investing.com at 02:18 GMT on September 11, 2026 and may not fully reflect the final closing price for the day. Timing discrepancies may exist. Specific data should be based on the Company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is provided solely for information and research reference and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.