Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co., Ltd. (000301)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Petrochemicals, Advanced Chemical Materials and Polyester Fibers　|　Report Date: September 14, 2026　|　As of the September 11, 2026 close; technical indicators primarily use daily data as of September 10, 2026, while certain shareholder and institutional holdings data are as of March 31, 2026 and June 30, 2026, respectively, and are subject to disclosure lags.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Eastern Shenghong generated revenue of RMB 69.924 billion in the first half of 2026, up 14.79% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 4.500 billion, up 1,065.10% year on year, while net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was RMB 4.316 billion, up 1,488.19% year on year. Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 18.135 billion, indicating a significant recovery in profitability and cash flow from 2025. The improvement was mainly driven by refining and petrochemical and advanced chemical materials businesses. Revenue from refined oil products increased 34.60% year on year, with a gross margin of 31.48%; the gross margin of other petrochemical and advanced chemical materials businesses was 17.93%. However, attributable net profit for 2025 was only RMB 134 million, meaning the high growth rate in the first half of 2026 reflects a low-base effect and should not be simply extrapolated to the full year.

The company has annual capacity of 16 million tonnes of crude oil processing, 2.4 million tonnes of MTO, 700,000 tonnes of PDH, as well as substantial capacity for EVA, acrylonitrile, MMA and polyester filament yarn. It has established a vertically integrated “refining and chemicals—advanced chemical materials—polyester fibers” system. Diversified feedstock routes, industrial-park synergies and downstream product extension provide sources of cost and operating flexibility. EVA capacity has increased to 900,000 tonnes per year, while a 100,000-tonne-per-year POE industrial unit commenced operations in the third quarter of 2025. Future growth will depend on the stable operation of new-materials facilities, customer validation and product ramp-up.

The company’s earnings remain highly cyclical. In 2024, revenue was RMB 137.675 billion, but net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of RMB 2.297 billion; the gross margin of the petrochemical and advanced chemical materials segment fell to 8.60%, while finance expenses reached RMB 4.874 billion. Although first-half 2026 results improved materially, inventory impairment provisions and fixed-asset disposals reduced total profit by approximately RMB 398 million. Crude oil prices, refining and chemical spreads, facility maintenance and inventory movements will continue to have a significant impact on earnings.

As of September 11, 2026, the price under the technical-data methodology was RMB 13.38. The share price had recently declined from RMB 14.62 to RMB 13.38, breaking below the short-term MA5 and MA10. The MACD histogram was negative, indicating weak short-term momentum, although the price remained close to the MA20 and the Bollinger middle band, while RSI was in neutral territory. Another valuation methodology uses RMB 13.76 as the reference price, implying a forward-looking PE of approximately 9.8x to 10.1x and a forward PE of approximately 12.8x to 15x. At the same time, PB was at a historically high percentile, indicating that the market has already priced in some earnings recovery expectations.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Petrochemicals and advanced chemical materials: including refined oil products, ethylene, propylene, benzene, PX, ethylene glycol, acrylonitrile, EVA, MMA, ethylene oxide and derivatives, POSM, polyols, PETG, EC/DMC and ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene. Shenghong Refining’s 16-million-tonne-per-year integrated refining project provides the feedstock platform, while Sierbang Petrochemical’s MTO, PDH and fine-chemical facilities provide the advanced chemical materials platform
• Polyester fibers: the main products are POY, DTY and FDY, mainly differentiated DTY and functional fibers, with additional layouts in recycled polyester fibers, bio-based PDO/PTT fibers and carbon-capture fibers
• In 2024, petrochemical and advanced chemical materials revenue was RMB 108.277 billion, accounting for 78.65% of revenue; chemical-fiber revenue was RMB 27.151 billion, accounting for 19.72%; other business revenue was RMB 2.247 billion, accounting for 1.63%
• By product in 2024, refined oil products generated revenue of RMB 27.857 billion, accounting for 20.23%; other petrochemical and advanced chemical materials generated RMB 80.420 billion, accounting for 58.42%; polyester filament yarn generated RMB 26.052 billion, accounting for 18.92%; other chemical-fiber products generated RMB 1.099 billion, accounting for 0.80%
• As of the end of 2024, major capacity included 16 million tonnes per year of crude oil processing, 2.4 million tonnes per year of MTO, 700,000 tonnes per year of PDH, 1.04 million tonnes per year of acrylonitrile, 500,000 tonnes per year of EVA, 340,000 tonnes per year of MMA, approximately 300,000 tonnes per year of EO and derivatives, approximately 3.6 million tonnes per year of polyester filament yarn and approximately 600,000 tonnes per year of recycled polyester fibers
• The 2025 annual report disclosed that total EVA capacity had increased to 900,000 tonnes per year and that a 100,000-tonne-per-year POE industrial unit commenced operations in the third quarter of 2025; some capacity figures are missing from portions of the annual-report webpage text because of OCR issues, and specific facility capacities should still be checked against the official PDF and subsequent announcements

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost/Profit Structure

Eastern Shenghong is positioned at the boundary between the upper-middle and middle reaches of the petrochemical value chain. It is an integrated middle-stream materials company based on large-scale refining and chemicals, extending into advanced chemical materials and differentiated polyester fibers. The company is neither an upstream resource producer with crude oil, coal or mineral extraction rights nor a downstream branded company relying on end-consumer brand premiums. Its value chain broadly runs from crude oil, coal, methanol and propane through refining, MTO and PDH to basic chemical raw materials such as ethylene, propylene, PX, ethylene glycol and benzene, and then extends into PTA, EVA, POE, acrylonitrile, MMA, EO, polyester, polyester filament yarn and recycled fibers.

• Actual feedstocks purchased by the petrochemical and advanced chemical materials segment include crude oil, coal, methanol, propane, other basic chemical raw materials and energy; the company uses annual and monthly procurement plans combined with long-term contracts and spot purchases.
• The polyester-fiber segment mainly purchases PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG) and waste plastic bottle flakes, generally through long-term framework agreements and monthly-priced procurement; recycled polyester fibers mainly use waste plastic bottle flakes as feedstock.
• In 2024, raw-material costs in the petrochemical and advanced chemical materials segment were RMB 80.702 billion, accounting for 64.02% of segment operating costs; energy costs were RMB 9.303 billion, accounting for 7.38%. In the chemical-fiber segment, raw-material costs were RMB 19.767 billion, accounting for 15.68% of operating costs; energy costs were RMB 2.500 billion, accounting for 1.98%.
• The company has internal feedstock synergies among refining and chemicals, MTO, PDH and polyester fibers, and has established diversified crude oil, methanol and propane feedstock routes; port and petrochemical-park infrastructure helps reduce logistics costs, while large-scale facilities help dilute fixed costs per unit.
• The company is not a typical resource monopolist and has no substantial control over upstream prices of crude oil, coal, methanol or propane. It remains broadly a price taker for commodities and mainly reduces volatility through long-term contracts, spot procurement, feedstock-route switching and hedging.
• Downstream applications for petrochemical and advanced chemical materials include fuel and transportation, polyester, plastics, rubber, fibers, photovoltaic encapsulant films, ABS, carbon fiber, nylon 66, electrolyte solvents, engineering plastics and high-end film materials.
• Polyester filament yarn is mainly used in apparel, home textiles and industrial textiles, as well as automotive interiors, luggage, construction and protective applications. Recycled polyester fibers already serve brand customers including Decathlon, Nike, Uniqlo, Adidas and Li-Ning, although the annual report does not disclose the sales amount or percentage attributable to each customer.
• As of December 31, 2024, the top five customers accounted for total sales of RMB 27.726 billion, or 20.13% of annual sales; the largest customer accounted for 9.16%, the second-largest 5.05%, and the third through fifth customers approximately 2.00% to 2.07% each. Customer names were disclosed anonymously as “Customer 1” through “Customer 5.” This data comes from a single annual report and could not be further cross-checked against specific customer attributes; the actual customer structure should be based on the latest annual report.
• Petrochemical products are mainly sold through direct sales, spot transactions, short- and medium-term orders and distributors. Prices for most products are market-based, and settlement is primarily payment before shipment; polyester-fiber products are also mainly quoted according to market conditions, while a small number of major customers may receive limited credit periods.
• Refined oil products, PX, PTA and ethylene glycol have high degrees of marketization and limited sales-side bargaining power. EVA, acrylonitrile, MMA and high-end differentiated, recycled and functional fibers have technical, quality, customer-certification or product-specification barriers, giving them relatively stronger bargaining power than ordinary bulk chemicals, although they remain in highly competitive value chains.
• As of December 31, 2024, the book value of accounts receivable was RMB 2.328 billion, accounting for 1.14% of total assets and approximately 1.69% of 2024 revenue; inventory was RMB 16.873 billion, accounting for 8.26% of total assets; prepayments were RMB 525 million; accounts payable were RMB 14.251 billion, approximately 10.35% of 2024 revenue; and contract liabilities were RMB 2.485 billion. Most sales are made against payment before shipment, resulting in a low accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio, while accounts payable exceed accounts receivable. This indicates relatively strict control over customer credit periods and the possible receipt of supplier credit terms, but does not by itself establish strong supplier bargaining power. Accounts receivable increased from RMB 1.479 billion at the beginning of 2024 to RMB 2.328 billion at year-end and further to RMB 2.992 billion at the end of 2025, accounting for 1.46% of total assets. The company explained that the 2024 increase was mainly due to higher amounts receivable from customers. These are balance-sheet date figures. Regarding supplier concentration, purchases from the top five suppliers amounted to RMB 33.514 billion in 2024, accounting for 30.09% of total annual purchases; supplier names were disclosed anonymously.
• Customer concentration: as of December 31, 2024, the top five customers accounted for 20.13% of annual sales, with the largest customer accounting for 9.16%. Supplier concentration: purchases from the top five suppliers accounted for 30.09% of total annual purchases in 2024. Customer and supplier names were disclosed anonymously. The concentration data mainly comes from a single annual report and could not be cross-checked against specific counterparties or their industries; the latest annual report should be consulted for the current structure.

The company is positioned at the boundary between the upper-middle and middle reaches of the petrochemical value chain and is closer to a capital-intensive, cyclical middle-stream processing and materials-manufacturing business than to a high-margin upstream resource producer or a downstream company with end-market brand premiums. Profit is mainly affected by the prices of bulk feedstocks such as crude oil, coal, methanol and propane, as well as product spreads. Future improvement depends on optimizing refinery operations, increasing yields of ethylene, aromatics and high-value-added chemicals, raising the proportion of EVA, POE, acrylonitrile and MMA, developing differentiated and recycled fibers, and reducing unit energy consumption and finance expenses.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The 2026 interim report was disclosed on August 28, 2026, with financial data as of June 30, 2026. First-half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was RMB 4.316 billion, up 1,488.19% year on year; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 18.135 billion, up 545.11% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 0.06, compared with RMB 0.06 in the same period of the previous year; and weighted average ROE was 12.39%, up 11.26 percentage points year on year. Second-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was RMB 2.999 billion, compared with a loss of approximately RMB 21 million in the same period of the previous year, representing a return to profitability; quarterly sales gross margin was approximately 21.47%, up 11.08 percentage points year on year. Net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was a loss of RMB 543 million in 2025, while basic EPS was RMB 0.02.

First-half 2026 results improved materially, with profit growth mainly driven by refining and petrochemical and advanced chemical materials businesses. Revenue from refined oil products was RMB 15.428 billion, up 34.60% year on year, with a gross margin of 31.48%; revenue from other petrochemical and advanced chemical materials was RMB 41.831 billion, up 12.50% year on year, with a gross margin of 17.93%; revenue from polyester filament yarn and other chemical-fiber businesses was RMB 11.492 billion, up 2.37% year on year, with a gross margin of 12.86%. The 1,065.10% year-on-year increase in first-half 2026 attributable net profit reflects the low base in 2025 and should not be directly extrapolated to the full year.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

According to Tonghuashun F10 data, as of September 12, 2026, 10 institutions had issued 2026 earnings forecasts during the preceding six months, while eight institutions had issued forecasts for 2028. The aggregated data include earlier institutional reports, and the average is below certain of the latest reports published in early September 2026. Recent institutional forecasts are from reports issued by China Great Wall Securities on September 8, 2026; Soochow Securities on September 3, 2026; Huaan Securities on September 1, 2026; and Shenwan Hongyuan on September 1, 2026.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

As of the September 11, 2026 close, the share price was RMB 13.76, total market capitalization was approximately RMB 90.97 billion, total shares outstanding were approximately 6.611 billion, PB was approximately 2.40x and TTM PE was approximately 21.42x, while dynamic PE was approximately 9.8x to 10.1x. The 52-week high was approximately RMB 15.08 and the low approximately RMB 9.00. Based on 2026 institutional earnings forecasts, forward PE was approximately 12.8x to 15x; based on 2027 forecasts, approximately 12x to 14x; and based on 2028 forecasts, approximately 10x to 12x. CICC’s RMB 14.80 target price implies potential upside of approximately 7.6% from the September 11, 2026 closing price of RMB 13.76, but it is not a target shared by all institutions and should not be regarded as a market-consensus target. For PB valuation, Lixinger data showed PB of approximately 2.55x as of September 4, 2026, at approximately the 96.97th historical percentile, indicating a historically high level. TTM PE is relatively high because of the low 2025 earnings base, while dynamic PE and institutional forward PE reflect expectations for earnings recovery in 2026. As a cyclical petrochemical company, earnings are sensitive to crude oil prices, refining spreads, chemical-product prices, facility maintenance and inventory gains. Institutional 2026 net-profit forecasts range from RMB 3.1 billion to RMB 7.602 billion, indicating substantial disagreement. If product spreads subsequently decline, or the commissioning and ramp-up of new-materials projects fall short of expectations, valuation could contract.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Controlling Shareholder Sold Part of the “Shenghong Convertible Bonds”; This Was Not a Sale of Company Shares

On September 1, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on a Change of 10% in the Proportion of Convertible Bonds Held by a Bondholder. Between January 29 and August 28, 2026, controlling shareholder Jiangsu Shenghong Technology Co., Ltd. sold 5,947,559 “Shenghong Convertible Bonds” through centralized bidding on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, representing 11.90% of the total convertible-bond issuance. Shenghong Technology’s holdings declined from 19,547,284 bonds to 13,599,725, and its holding ratio fell from 39.09% to 27.20%. Shenghong Technology and acting-in-concert party Shenghong (Suzhou) Group Co., Ltd. together reduced their holdings from 21,347,284 bonds to 15,399,725, with the combined holding ratio falling from 42.69% to 30.80%. This was a change in the controlling shareholder’s convertible-bond holdings, not a direct sale of Eastern Shenghong A-shares. The announcement did not disclose the specific reason for the sale.

4.2 First-Half 2026 Earnings Increased Significantly, with Actual Results Near the Middle of the Guidance Range

On July 6, 2026, the company disclosed its preliminary earnings guidance for the first half of 2026. It expected net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for January 1 to June 30 to be RMB 4.2 billion to RMB 5.0 billion, up 987.39% to 1,194.51% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items was expected to be RMB 4.016 billion to RMB 4.816 billion, up 1,377.97% to 1,672.39% year on year; and basic EPS was expected to be RMB 0.64 to RMB 0.76. The company attributed the growth to improved supply and demand in the petrochemical industry, higher international crude oil prices driving improvements in petrochemical prices and spreads, relatively stable operation of the 16-million-tonne-per-year Shenghong integrated refining project and other business segments, as well as product-mix adjustments and cost-reduction and efficiency-improvement measures. The interim report disclosed on August 29, 2026 showed first-half attributable net profit of RMB 4.50015 billion, up 1,065.10% year on year, and attributable net profit excluding non-recurring items of RMB 4.31550 billion, up 1,488.19% year on year. Actual results were near the middle of the previous guidance range. The low earnings base contributed materially to the high growth rate, and earnings sustainability remains dependent on refining and chemical spreads, crude oil prices, industry conditions and facility operations.

4.3 First-Half Impairment Provisions and Fixed-Asset Disposals Reduced Total Profit by Approximately RMB 398 Million

On August 29, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on Provision for Asset Impairment and Disposal of Certain Fixed Assets for the First Half of 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the company had recognized total asset impairment provisions of RMB 271.9405 million for the first half of 2026, including a reversal of RMB 38.1969 million in bad-debt provisions for receivables and an inventory write-down provision of RMB 310.1374 million. At the same time, the company disposed of fixed assets with a net book value of RMB 137.8312 million, resulting in a disposal loss of RMB 126.4128 million. Together, the asset impairment and fixed-asset disposal items reduced total profit in the consolidated first-half financial statements by RMB 398.3533 million. The data have not been audited by an accounting firm, and the final impact will be subject to the annual audit determination.

4.4 The 16-Million-Tonne-Per-Year Integrated Refining Project Completed Maintenance and Resumed Production

Between August 17 and 18, 2026, the company disclosed announcements on the resumption of production at maintenance facilities. The company had conducted routine maintenance on facilities at the 16-million-tonne-per-year Shenghong integrated refining project since late June 2026. The net maintenance period was expected to be approximately 45 days, with certain supporting facilities shut down simultaneously as required. The announcements stated that equipment maintenance, technical-renovation projects for quality and efficiency improvement, and statutory inspections of special equipment had all been completed successfully, and that the company would organize the resumption of production according to its operating plan. Resumption is positive for returning major capacity to operation, but actual utilization, product spreads and operating stability still require monitoring.

4.5 Controlling Shareholder and Acting-in-Concert Party Completed Share-Purchase Plan, Accumulating Approximately RMB 1.167 Billion in Purchases

On July 11, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on Completion of the Share-Purchase Plan by the Controlling Shareholder and Its Acting-in-Concert Party. Between April 17 and July 10, 2026, controlling shareholder Shenghong Technology and acting-in-concert party Shenghong Suzhou purchased a combined 94,307,982 company shares through centralized bidding, representing 1.43% of total shares outstanding, for a total consideration of RMB 1.1672227 billion excluding transaction fees. Shenghong Technology purchased 65,446,582 shares, or 0.99% of total shares, for RMB 811.7522 million; Shenghong Suzhou purchased 28,861,400 shares, or 0.44% of total shares, for RMB 355.4705 million. The original purchase plan had a target amount of RMB 980 million to RMB 1.960 billion. The actual purchase amount was approximately RMB 1.167 billion, exceeding the lower limit. The plan was completed on July 10, 2026, and does not indicate that further purchases will continue.

4.6 Fourth Employee Share-Ownership Plan Nearing Expiration, Holding Approximately 81.11 Million Shares

On July 29, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on the Upcoming Expiration of the Company’s Fourth Employee Share-Ownership Plan. The fourth employee share-ownership plan completed its stock purchases on February 1, 2024, acquiring 81,113,123 company shares through the secondary market, representing approximately 1.23% of total shares outstanding at the time of the announcement. As of July 28, 2026, the plan had not sold any shares and still held 81,113,123 shares. The plan will expire on January 31, 2027. Before expiration, the holders’ meeting and the company’s board may decide, based on market conditions, to extend the plan, sell the shares or make other arrangements. No definitive disposal plan has yet been formed, and an imminent concentrated sell-down cannot be assumed.

4.7 Proposed Registration of Debt-Financing Instruments of No More Than RMB 3 Billion

On July 11, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on Applying for Unified Registration of Debt-Financing Instruments. The company plans to apply to the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors for unified registration of debt-financing instruments with a registered amount of no more than RMB 3.0 billion, in order to broaden financing channels, optimize its financing structure and reduce financing costs. The matter remains subject to shareholder approval and approval from the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors. The final issuance, amount, maturity and interest rate have not been determined. This is currently a financing plan and does not mean that RMB 3.0 billion of interest-bearing debt has already been added.

4.8 No New Share-Repurchase Announcement Identified Between July and September 2026

As of September 14, 2026, no new announcement of a share-repurchase plan, repurchase implementation progress or repurchase cancellation by Eastern Shenghong between July and September 2026 had been identified. The controlling shareholder’s activity in 2026 consisted of purchasing A-shares, while the company’s September 2026 disclosure concerned the sale of part of its “Shenghong Convertible Bonds”; neither constituted a listed-company share repurchase.

4.9 No New Merger, Acquisition or Major Asset Restructuring Announcement Identified Between July and September 2026

As of September 14, 2026, no new announcement of a major asset acquisition, disposal, restructuring or merger transaction by the company between July and September 2026 had been identified. Recent disclosures focused on interim results, maintenance and restart of refining facilities, shareholder purchases, changes in convertible-bond holdings and financing arrangements.

4.10 No Major Regulatory Penalty or Inquiry Announcement Identified Between July and September 2026

As of September 14, 2026, no announcement had been identified indicating that Eastern Shenghong received an administrative penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, disciplinary action from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange or a major regulatory inquiry during the period above. This conclusion is based on the company’s announcement list, relevant Shenzhen Stock Exchange disclosures and public searches, and does not exclude subsequent announcements or information from non-announcement channels.

5. Share-Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Eastern Shenghong closed at RMB 13.38, down approximately 2.76% from the previous trading day. The share price recently declined from RMB 14.62 on September 4 to RMB 13.38. It had broken below MA5 and MA10, while technical indicators mainly as of September 10 showed that the share price remained slightly above MA20 and the Bollinger middle band. DIF was below DEA and the MACD histogram was negative, indicating weak short-term momentum; RSI remained in neutral territory without an oversold signal. In terms of fund flows, main funds recorded a clear net outflow on September 10, but cumulative main-fund flow over the latest 10 trading days remained positive. The top-10 tradable shareholders showed relatively high concentration, and institutional ownership coverage was high, although both datasets were subject to quarterly disclosure lags. Overall, the stock is in a support-observation phase near the middle band and 20-day moving average. Future movements should be assessed together with the RMB 13.45–13.75 support zone, the RMB 14.14–14.24 moving-average resistance zone and changes in turnover.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data as of September 11, 2026 and historical technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice or a definitive forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher subjective weight, approximately 60%; a heuristic assessment based on current technical indicators, turnover and fund flows rather than a statistical probability): The reference price range is RMB 13.40–14.20. Trigger conditions include support near RMB 13.45, no effective break below RMB 13.40, turnover remaining around RMB 400 million–RMB 600 million, and no clear one-way decline in the broader market or industry. The current price is close to the Bollinger middle band and RSI is in neutral territory. If selling pressure eases, the price may fluctuate repeatedly within this range.
• Weak downside movement (medium subjective weight; a heuristic assessment based on current technical indicators, turnover and fund flows rather than a statistical probability): The reference price range is RMB 12.40–13.45. Trigger conditions include an effective break below RMB 13.40–13.45, daily turnover materially exceeding the recent norm of RMB 400 million–RMB 600 million, and continued net outflows from main funds. If support fails, the next important observation level is the Bollinger lower band near RMB 12.46; continued development of a MACD death cross could reinforce short-term adjustment pressure.
• Strengthening rebound (low to medium subjective weight; a heuristic assessment based on current technical indicators, turnover and fund flows rather than a statistical probability): The reference price range is RMB 14.20–14.95. Trigger conditions include reclaiming the RMB 14.14–14.24 moving-average resistance zone, sustained daily turnover of approximately RMB 650 million–RMB 700 million or more, and a shift in main funds from net outflow to consecutive net inflows. If the stock reclaims MA5 and MA10 on increased volume, it may rebound toward RMB 14.60 and the RMB 14.96 Bollinger upper-band area, but confirmation from volume and fund flows is still required.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

Recent turnover rates were approximately 0.44%–0.65%, with daily turnover of approximately RMB 400 million–RMB 600 million. Turnover on September 11 was RMB 464 million, below the higher levels of approximately RMB 546 million–RMB 611 million on September 4, September 7 and September 8. Regarding shareholder data, as of March 31, 2026, the top 10 tradable shareholders held 78.82% of tradable shares, while the three largest controlling shareholders and acting-in-concert parties held approximately 67.16%, although the data are subject to quarterly disclosure lags. As of June 30, 2026, institutional-holding statistics showed that major institutions held approximately 83.50% of tradable shares, also subject to a quarterly lag. The top 10 shareholders continued to consist mainly of controlling shareholders and related parties, while also including foreign custodial accounts, Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company, the employee share-ownership trust and private-equity funds; the institutional-holding statistics included 493 funds and other institutions. In practical terms, a relatively large proportion of tradable shares is held by controlling shareholders, related parties and institutions, making the market float relatively concentrated. When turnover is low, concentrated fund inflows or outflows may produce rapid price movements, while a price breakout requires confirmation from turnover.

If the share price breaks above RMB 14.20–14.24 while daily turnover reaches approximately RMB 650 million–RMB 700 million or more and remains elevated for at least two consecutive trading days, this may be observed as a signal of materially stronger short-term fund participation. If the price falls below RMB 13.45 with a simultaneous increase in turnover, the risk of a pullback toward RMB 12.40–12.60 should be monitored.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 13.45–13.75 area can provide effective support; this is an observation framework only, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether the RMB 14.14–14.24 moving-average resistance zone can be reclaimed on increased volume; this is an observation framework only, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether the MACD death cross is repaired and whether DIF and DEA form a new golden cross; this is an observation framework only, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether main funds shift from a single-day net outflow to consecutive net inflows and whether turnover can increase to more than RMB 650 million–RMB 700 million to confirm the validity of a breakout; this is an observation framework only, not a trading instruction.

The above scenario analysis is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026 and historical prices and technical indicators disclosed as of September 10, 2026. Short-term share prices may also be affected by news, fund flows, broader-market conditions, commodity prices in the industry and liquidity. Technical indicators themselves have lagging characteristics and limitations. This does not guarantee actual future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Conditions

The company’s industries cover large-scale refining and chemicals, advanced chemical materials and polyester fibers. The refining industry is contested by large state-owned petrochemical companies, private-sector integrated refiners and local refineries, and faces periodic overcapacity. New projects are concentrated in large coastal petrochemical bases, with competition shifting from simple refining and processing toward chemical-product yields, feedstock structure, energy efficiency and high-end materials. The polyester filament-yarn industry is large and relatively concentrated, with competition focused on scale, costs, integration, differentiated products, energy and environmental costs, and customer certification. EVA capacity is expanding rapidly and demand is highly concentrated in photovoltaics. POE has higher technical barriers, and domestic companies remain in the process of advancing localization.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The refining industry has developed a competitive structure comprising large state-owned petrochemical companies, private-sector integrated refiners and local refineries. The industry faces periodic overcapacity, while policy focuses on controlling inefficient refining capacity, improving utilization of large facilities and increasing industry concentration.
• New refining projects increasingly integrate refining, aromatics, ethylene and downstream advanced materials. Competition is shifting from simple refining and processing toward chemical-product yields, feedstock structure, energy efficiency and high-end materials.
• Xuwei New Area in Lianyungang, where Eastern Shenghong operates, is one of China’s key petrochemical industrial bases. Its advantages include convenient imports of crude oil and chemical feedstocks through the port, large facility scale, and intra-park feedstock exchanges with Sierbang Petrochemical and Honggang Petrochemical.
• The 2024 annual report cited industry data indicating that the CR6 capacity share of polyester filament yarn was close to 70% in 2024. Other sources place 2023 CR6 at approximately 74% to 81.5%; differences in statistical methodology mean these figures should not be directly combined.
• Ordinary POY, FDY and DTY products are relatively standardized and subject to clear price competition, while ultra-fine-denier, full-dull, composite, recycled and functional fibers rely more on process stability and customer certification.
• The EVA industry faces rapid domestic capacity expansion. Photovoltaic-grade EVA requires stable facility operation, control of product crystal points, VA content and continuous-production capability. POE has higher technical barriers, with high-carbon alpha-olefins, metallocene catalysts and solution-polymerization technology serving as key barriers.
• Following the commissioning of the POE unit in 2025, the company established a dual EVA-and-POE layout. However, long-term stable operation, yields, customer validation and profitability still require verification through subsequent announcements and annual reports.

6.3 Major Competitors

Compared with polyester and filament-yarn companies, Eastern Shenghong has diversified feedstock routes and vertical integration based on 16 million tonnes per year of refining, 2.4 million tonnes per year of MTO and 700,000 tonnes per year of PDH. Compared with large refining peers, its competitive focus is more concentrated on advanced materials such as acrylonitrile, EVA, POE, MMA, ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene, PETG and EC/DMC, as well as differentiated and recycled fibers. The company’s strengths include scale, industrial-park synergies, feedstock-route switching and product extension, but it still faces uncertainty from bulk-feedstock price volatility, product cycles, high depreciation and finance expenses, and the stable operation and customer certification of new-materials facilities.

7. Risk Factors

• Refining and petrochemical and chemical-materials businesses are highly sensitive to the prices of crude oil, coal, methanol and propane, as well as spreads for refined oil products, PX, ethylene glycol and other chemical products. The significant first-half 2026 profit growth includes a low-base effect, and profitability could fluctuate materially if spreads decline.
• The company’s 16-million-tonne-per-year integrated refining project is large and involves substantial fixed-asset investment and depreciation pressure. It underwent approximately 45 days of maintenance from late June to August 2026. If actual utilization, operating stability or subsequent maintenance after the restart falls short of expectations, production, sales and profit could be affected.
• EVA capacity has increased to 900,000 tonnes per year and the 100,000-tonne-per-year POE facility has commenced operations, but POE and high-end EVA still require stable facility operation, yield improvements and customer validation. If product ramp-up or profitability falls short of expectations, the company’s advanced-materials upgrade could underperform.
• Finance expenses reached RMB 4.874 billion in 2024, while attributable net profit was a loss of RMB 2.297 billion. If the refining cycle weakens or financing costs remain high, elevated depreciation and finance expenses could amplify downside pressure on earnings.
• In the first half of 2026, the company recognized an inventory write-down provision of RMB 310 million and disposed of fixed assets with a net book value of RMB 138 million. Together, these items reduced total profit by approximately RMB 398 million. The final impact remains subject to the annual audit determination, and inventory-price fluctuations and asset-impairment risks require continued monitoring.
• Polyester filament yarn and ordinary chemical products have relatively high degrees of marketization, and the industry faces periodic overcapacity. Price competition is pronounced for ordinary POY, FDY and DTY. If product-mix improvement is insufficient, growth in chemical-fiber sales volumes may not translate into stable profit growth.
• The company plans to apply for registration of debt-financing instruments of no more than RMB 3.0 billion. The final issuance amount, maturity and interest rate have not been determined. If financing increases or financing costs rise, leverage and interest burdens could increase.
• The employee share-ownership plan holds approximately 81.11 million shares and will expire on January 31, 2027. There is currently no definitive disposal plan, but a concentrated sale in the future could affect short-term market supply and demand and share-price volatility. In addition, technical data show that the share price has fallen below MA5 and MA10; if support near RMB 13.45–13.75 fails while funds continue to flow out, short-term adjustment pressure could increase.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company’s current core growth drivers are the recovery of the refining cycle and the operating flexibility of integration, together with a rising proportion of advanced chemical materials and differentiated fibers. First-half 2026 gross margins in the refining and petrochemical and advanced chemical materials businesses improved materially. If product spreads and facility operations remain stable, earnings recovery may continue. Further ramp-up of EVA, POE, acrylonitrile, MMA, recycled fibers and functional fibers could improve the company’s earnings mix relative to ordinary bulk chemicals.

Institutions generally expect earnings recovery in 2026–2028. Recent forecasts mainly place 2026 attributable net profit at RMB 6.5 billion to RMB 7.1 billion, 2027 at approximately RMB 6.9 billion to RMB 7.4 billion, and 2028 at approximately RMB 8.0 billion to RMB 9.2 billion. However, different institutions’ 2026 net-profit forecasts range from RMB 3.101 billion to RMB 7.602 billion, indicating substantial disagreement. This suggests that the market’s focus has shifted from whether the company can return to profitability to whether earnings recovery can continue. Subsequent validation should focus on refining spreads, facility utilization, production and sales of new materials and cash-flow performance.

The company must continue to balance expansion, cost reduction and balance-sheet management against high capital intensity and elevated finance expenses. The controlling shareholder completed approximately RMB 1.167 billion of A-share purchases, but its simultaneous sale of some convertible bonds does not constitute a sale of company shares. The proposed registration of debt-financing instruments of no more than RMB 3.0 billion likewise does not yet constitute the addition of new debt. Overall, future earnings elasticity and cyclical volatility will coexist. The technical picture is currently in a support-observation phase, while the sustainability of fundamental improvement and the extent to which valuation has absorbed earnings expectations remain important areas to monitor.

Data Sources

• Eastern Shenghong (000301)_Company Announcements_Eastern Shenghong: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301)_Company Announcements_Eastern Shenghong: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301)_Company Announcements_Eastern Shenghong: 2023 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493)_Company Announcements_Rongsheng Petrochemical: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Tongkun (601233)_Company Announcements_Tongkun: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• High-quality polyester filament-yarn targets, with integrated value-chain growth prospects—Macro Research Report_Data Center_Eastmoney
• List of Main Board Listed Companies on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange
• Eastern Shenghong (000301)_Company Announcements_Eastern Shenghong: 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301): Results in Line with Expectations; Refining Prosperity Recovered Clearly; Filament Yarn and New Materials Continue to Ramp Up_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301) 2026 Interim Results Review: Geopolitical Conflict Boosted Refining Prosperity; Integration Highlights Earnings Elasticity_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong: 2025 Profit of RMB 134 Million, Turning Profitable Year on Year_Eastmoney
• Eastern Shenghong (000301) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Eastern Shenghong (000301): Refining Prosperity Recovered; Quarterly Profit Reached a Record High_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301): Results in Line with Expectations; Refining Prosperity Recovered Clearly; Filament Yarn and New Materials Continue to Ramp Up_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301): Refining Unit Resumed Production; Aromatics Prosperity Continued_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301): Second Quarter Benefited from Refining and Polyester Improvement; Facility Maintenance Began_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Eastern Shenghong (000301) Stock Information—Data Platform
• Eastern Shenghong (000301) Price-to-Book Ratio | Valuation | Fundamentals—Lixinger

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the September 11, 2026 close; technical indicators primarily use daily data as of September 10, 2026, while certain shareholder and institutional holdings data are as of March 31, 2026 and June 30, 2026, respectively, and are subject to disclosure lags. Information may differ in timeliness, and specific data should be based on the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.