Midea Group (000333)

Equity Analysis Report | Industry: Home Appliances, Smart Manufacturing and Industrial Technology | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the close on September 11, 2026; that day is the latest available full trading day

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Midea Group achieved operating revenue of RMB 260.042 billion in the first half of 2026, up 3.55% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 26.446 billion, up 1.66% year-on-year, but non-recurring-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 19.595 billion, down 25.31% year-on-year, indicating that while headline profit maintained growth, the quality of core business profitability was disturbed by factors such as exchange losses and differences in the classification of hedging gains as non-recurring items. In 2025, the company's revenue was RMB 456.452 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 43.945 billion. Smart Home still occupied the foundation with revenue of RMB 299.927 billion, and overseas revenue grew 15.92% year-on-year, with globalization and ToB business being the main growth directions.

The company has formed a diversified business structure of "Smart Home + Industrial Technology + Building Technologies + Robotics and Automation + New Energy," with collaborative capabilities in global manufacturing, R&D, supply chain, brand channels, and core components. In 2025, the Commercial and Industrial Solutions revenue accounted for 26.89%, overseas revenue accounted for 42.93%, and overseas OBM business revenue reached more than 45% of Smart Home overseas revenue, indicating that the business structure is extending from traditional home appliances to a global technology manufacturing and integrated solutions platform.

In terms of profitability, the overall gross margin increased from 22.48% in 2021 to 26.39% in 2025, and the sales net margin increased from 8.50% to 9.75%, but the gross margin was basically flat in 2025, and the gross margin of Commercial and Industrial Solutions was lower than that of Smart Home. Raw materials accounted for 82.26% of the company's home appliance costs, so price fluctuations in copper, aluminum, steel, plastics, etc., promotional competition, and channel expenses remain important constraints on profit margins.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's A-share closing price was RMB 86.26, with a static or TTM P/E ratio of approximately 14.7x to 14.9x, and the share price was at a relatively high level within the 52-week price range. The technical picture shows high-level consolidation, with MA20, MA100, and MA200 below the current price forming support, while MA5, MA10, and MA50 constitute near-term resistance; at the same time, the company continued to repurchase shares and planned to use the repurchased shares to reduce registered capital, and the 2026 A-share shareholding plan completed the non-trading transfer of 15,772,385 shares.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Smart Home: consumer-facing, covering household air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances, water heaters, water purification equipment, small lifestyle appliances, cleaning appliances, central air conditioners, home environment equipment, and whole-home intelligence, with main brands including Midea, Little Swan, Hualing, COLMO, and Toshiba
• Industrial Technology: serving customers in the HVAC appliance, new energy vehicle, and robotics industry chains, with products including compressors, motors, chips, valves, pumps, control components, new energy vehicle electric compressors and thermal management components, EPS motors, and core robotics components, with main brands including GMCC, Welling, and Meiren
• Building Technologies: serving commercial, industrial, and public building customers, providing central air conditioning, VRF systems, large chillers, computer room air conditioning, elevators, escalators, building automation control, energy management, data center liquid cooling, and integrated energy-saving solutions
• Robotics and Automation: mainly composed of KUKA, Swisslog, and related businesses, covering industrial robots, automated production lines and system integration, warehouse and logistics automation, medical logistics automation, autonomous mobile robots, and digital factory solutions
• New Energy: involving large-scale, commercial and industrial, and residential energy storage, smart grids, distributed photovoltaics, photovoltaic inverters, high-voltage inverters, home energy management, and thermal storage linkage, with related assets mainly including Hiconics and Kelu Electronics
• Healthcare and Smart Logistics: the healthcare business mainly includes Wandong Medical and related medical imaging businesses; smart logistics is mainly undertaken by Annto, covering warehousing, line-haul transportation, urban distribution, integrated delivery and installation, and supply chain digital services

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

Midea Group is positioned in the integrated manufacturing and brand operation segment in the midstream and downstream of the home appliance industry chain, while extending upstream into core components and smart manufacturing and downstream into channels and service systems, forming a comprehensive platform enterprise of "scale manufacturing + brand channels + core components + global supply chain + ToB technology solutions." In 2025, Smart Home revenue was RMB 299.927 billion, accounting for 65.71% of operating revenue and remaining the foundation; Commercial and Industrial Solutions revenue was RMB 122.753 billion, accounting for 26.89%, and is an important growth engine.

• Main inputs include metal materials such as copper, aluminum, and steel plates, engineering plastics, plastic pellets, and foaming materials, compressors, motors, valves, pumps, controllers, and electronic control boards, chips, sensors, display and connection components, as well as packaging materials, electronic components, energy, logistics, and outsourced processing services.
• In 2025, among the operating costs of the home appliance business, raw material costs were RMB 209.752 billion, accounting for 82.26% of the operating costs of the home appliance business; labor wages accounted for 6.02%, depreciation accounted for 1.59%, and energy accounted for 1.30%, with the cost structure clearly dominated by material costs.
• The company has scale procurement, supplier management, a global multi-base layout, and in-house production capability for some core components, and has collaborative capabilities in compressors, motors, chips, valves and pumps, and control components; however, it does not have full pricing power over bulk commodities such as copper, aluminum, steel, and plastics, and overall it is a "scale purchaser + in-house production of some core components."
• In 2025, the procurement amount from the top five suppliers was RMB 19.325 billion, accounting for 6.02% of total annual procurement; the annual report disclosed that there were no related-party purchases among the top five suppliers. This concentration data is on a 2025 basis, and the research notes did not provide other years' data for cross-comparison.
• Upstream risks mainly include price fluctuations in copper, aluminum, steel, and plastics, the supply of chips, power devices, and some high-end electronic components, the difficulty of technological substitution for high-end components, and changes in overseas tariffs, trade policies, and exchange rates.
• Downstream includes domestic and international household consumers, home appliance distributors, retailers, and e-commerce platforms, large overseas retailers, real estate and home renovation and furnishing channels, as well as customers in commercial real estate, hotels, hospitals, schools, rail transit, industrial parks, data centers, automobiles, batteries, electronics manufacturing, and robotics system integration.
• In 2025, offline revenue was RMB 355.407 billion, accounting for 77.86%; online revenue was RMB 101.045 billion, accounting for 22.14%, and the sales model remained mainly offline.
• As of December 31, 2025, the total sales amount of the top five customers was RMB 60.137 billion, accounting for 13.17% of total annual sales; the largest customer accounted for 8.44%, and the second to fifth largest customers each accounted for less than 2%, with related-party sales among the top five customers accounting for 0%. This data is from the 2025 consolidated annual report. The annual report did not disclose the specific names of customers, so it is impossible to further determine whether they are e-commerce platforms, overseas customers, distributors, or industrial customers, nor to split ToC and ToB customers.
• In mature home appliance areas such as household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, the company has advantages in brand, scale, channels, and product portfolio, and has certain bargaining power over distributors and retail channels, but promotions, rebates, channel inventory, and price competition still affect profit.
• ToB businesses such as Building Technologies, Robotics and Automation, and Industrial Technology have project-based, customized, and large-customer certification characteristics, and usually face higher delivery, after-sales, and payment period requirements, but their technical barriers and service added value are higher than simple home appliance assembly.
• The overseas business is transforming from OEM/ODM to the OBM own-brand model; in 2025, overseas OBM business revenue reached more than 45% of Smart Home overseas revenue, but local channel development, tariffs, exchange rates, and after-sales systems still affect profit margins.
• As of December 31, 2025, gross accounts receivable were RMB 42.170 billion, and net accounts receivable were RMB 40.450 billion, accounting for approximately 8.86% of 2025 operating revenue of RMB 456.452 billion and approximately 92.05% of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of RMB 43.945 billion; accounts receivable within one year were approximately RMB 39.882 billion, accounting for approximately 94.6% of gross accounts receivable, and the company disclosed that there were no significant overdue accounts receivable at year-end. Based on a rough calculation using the average accounts receivable at the end of 2024 and the end of 2025 and the two-year average operating revenue, accounts receivable accounted for approximately 8.83% of revenue, corresponding to a rough collection period of approximately 32 days; this 32 days is a research estimate, not the turnover days directly disclosed in the annual report, and the group includes ToC, ToB, and finance-related businesses, so it cannot be simply equated with the payment terms of the pure home appliance business. In 2025, net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 53.346 billion, lower than RMB 60.512 billion in 2024, indicating that revenue expansion, inventory, overseas business, and working capital changes still had a certain impact on cash flow.
• On the upstream side, in 2025, the procurement amount from the top five suppliers accounted for 6.02% of total annual procurement, indicating low concentration; on the downstream side, in 2025, sales to the top five customers accounted for 13.17% of total annual sales, with the largest customer accounting for 8.44%, indicating overall non-reliance on a single large customer. The above concentration figures are all on a 2025 annual report basis, the specific customer names were not disclosed, and the research notes did not provide multi-year data for cross-validation.

Midea Group occupies a composite position of "midstream scale manufacturing, with equal emphasis on upstream core components and downstream brand channels." It is neither a simple low-value-added assembler nor a pure high-margin brand owner. Further margin improvement mainly depends on an increased share of overseas OBM and premium bundled products, collaboration in core components such as compressors, motors, chips, and controllers, improvements in global manufacturing, logistics, procurement, and channel efficiency, and volume growth in Building Technologies, data center liquid cooling, New Energy, and industrial automation businesses; at the same time, it is constrained by home appliance price competition, fluctuations in raw materials such as copper, aluminum, steel, and plastics, overseas tariffs and exchange rates, real estate and commercial real estate cycles, and the pace of profit realization from new businesses.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The latest formal financial data is the 2026 semi-annual report, disclosed on August 29, 2026. In the first half of 2026, non-recurring-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 19.595 billion, down 25.31% year-on-year; in the second quarter of 2026, non-recurring-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was approximately RMB 8.633 billion, down 35.98% year-on-year. In the first half of 2026, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 37.552 billion, up 0.73% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were RMB 3.52, up 3.23% year-on-year. As of June 30, 2026, total assets were RMB 643.102 billion, net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company were RMB 212.861 billion, and the weighted average return on equity was 11.33%.

The significant decline in non-recurring-adjusted net profit was mainly affected by exchange losses against the backdrop of RMB appreciation and differences in the classification of gains from derivative financial instrument hedging as non-recurring items, and does not fully represent a major deterioration in the main business. When analyzing non-recurring-adjusted data, the accounting treatment of foreign exchange hedging needs to be considered separately. Some media listed the first-half 2026 operating revenue as RMB 261.05 billion or RMB 261.052 billion, but the company's semi-annual report summary listed it as RMB 260.042 billion, and this article gives priority to the formal announcement data.

3.2 Profit Forecast

As of September 11, 2026, Tonghuashun's aggregation showed that a total of 32 institutions had forecast 2026 performance within the past 6 months. The above net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company and EPS are aggregations of forecasts from multiple institutions, not company guidance or official performance commitments. Operating revenue lacks a unified multi-institution consensus forecast with the same coverage scope as net profit and EPS. The revenue listed is single-point or representative institutional forecasts: Guolian Minsheng Securities forecast revenue of RMB 488.4 billion, RMB 522.8 billion, and RMB 560.7 billion for 2026 to 2028, respectively; another institution forecast RMB 481.387 billion, RMB 504.357 billion, and RMB 529.390 billion; Huatai Securities forecast approximately RMB 482.9 billion, RMB 511.9 billion, and RMB 541.6 billion. Institutional differences mainly involve assumptions for domestic home appliance demand, overseas OBM, Building Technologies, Robotics and Automation, and Industrial Technology. Representative institutional forecasts include: Guosen Securities forecast EPS of RMB 6.18, RMB 6.73, and RMB 7.27 for 2026 to 2028, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of approximately RMB 47.023 billion, RMB 51.139 billion, and RMB 55.246 billion; Huaxing Securities forecast EPS of RMB 6.09, RMB 6.46, and RMB 6.81, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of approximately RMB 46.466 billion, RMB 49.316 billion, and RMB 51.965 billion; Pacific Securities forecast EPS of RMB 6.20, RMB 6.66, and RMB 7.20, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of approximately RMB 47.285 billion, RMB 50.823 billion, and RMB 54.931 billion; Huatai Securities forecast EPS of RMB 6.20, RMB 6.81, and RMB 7.44; Kaisa Securities forecast net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of RMB 46.77 billion, RMB 50.41 billion, and RMB 54.03 billion, with EPS of approximately RMB 6.1, RMB 6.6, and RMB 7.1.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of the close on September 11, 2026, Midea Group's A-share closing price was RMB 86.26, with a change of +0.07%, and total market capitalization of approximately RMB 656.7 billion. Data from different platforms showed: Lixinger P/E ratio approximately 14.80x, P/B ratio approximately 3.10x, dividend yield approximately 4.98%; China Finance Network P/E ratio approximately 14.89x, non-recurring-adjusted P/E ratio approximately 19.09x, P/B ratio approximately 2.93x; Yahoo Finance trailing P/E ratio approximately 14.75x, trailing EPS approximately RMB 5.85. Overall, static or TTM PE is approximately 14.7x to 14.9x, and PB is approximately 2.9x to 3.1x. Based on the closing price and Tonghuashun consensus EPS, the dynamic PE for 2026 to 2028 is approximately 13.94x, 13.01x, and 12.08x; based on Guosen Securities' EPS forecast, the corresponding PE is approximately 13.96x, 12.82x, and 11.87x. The valuation broadly reflects approximately 13x to 14x forward PE for 2026 and approximately 12x to 13x forward PE for 2027. The company's 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 43.945 billion, and the 2026 institutional consensus net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is approximately RMB 47.181 billion. High cash returns, globalized business, overseas OBM transformation, Building Technologies, and Robotics and Automation businesses constitute valuation support. On the risk side, in the first half of 2026, non-recurring-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company fell 25.31% year-on-year, and exchange rate and hedging accounting classification may continue to cause divergence between net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company and non-recurring-adjusted profit; domestic home appliance demand and price competition may suppress revenue growth and gross margin; the growth realization of overseas OBM, Building Technologies, Robotics and Automation, and data center liquid cooling businesses will affect valuation premiums. Institutional profit forecasts vary widely, with the 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company forecast range at RMB 41.5 billion to RMB 63.1 billion, and target prices are also not directly comparable due to differences in report dates, currencies, valuation methods, and sample scopes.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 September 11, 2026: Participation in the Guangdong Jurisdiction Investor Collective Reception Day and Interim Report Results Briefing

Midea Group will participate in the "2026 Guangdong Jurisdiction Investor Collective Reception Day and Jurisdiction Listed Companies Semi-Annual Report Results Briefing" hosted by the Guangdong Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Guangdong Listed Companies Association. The event time is September 15, 2026, from 15:30 to 17:00, and it will be held remotely online. Some directors and senior management of the company will communicate with investors on issues such as the 2026 semi-annual performance, corporate governance, development strategy, and operating conditions. This announcement does not involve new operating data, major asset transactions, or performance forecasts and mainly constitutes an investor relations and information communication arrangement. Source: https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12594760&stockid=000333

4.2 September 3, 2026: Completion of Non-Trading Transfer for the 2026 A-Share Shareholding Plan

The company's dedicated securities repurchase account transferred 15,772,385 shares to the securities account of "Midea Group Co., Ltd.—2026 A-Share Shareholding Plan," accounting for approximately 0.21% of the company's current total share capital. The lock-up period for the shares is from September 3, 2026, to September 2, 2028, no less than 24 months. The company stated that this shareholding plan has not signed a concerted action agreement with, or has any concerted action arrangement with, the controlling shareholder or actual controller; some directors and senior management hold shares in this shareholding plan, but there is no concerted action arrangement among the holders. This matter is the implementation of an employee shareholding plan, not a direct increase in holdings by the controlling shareholder or actual controller, nor does it constitute an ordinary secondary market purchase. Source: https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12581160&stockid=000333

4.3 September 3, 2026: Progress on A-Share Repurchase

As of August 31, 2026, the company had cumulatively repurchased 99,797,967 A-shares through the dedicated securities repurchase account, accounting for 1.31% of the company's current total share capital; the transaction price range was RMB 73.66 per share to RMB 87.71 per share, and the cumulative payment amount was RMB 8.01972285 billion, excluding transaction fees. The use of the repurchased shares has been adjusted from equity incentives and employee shareholding plans to cancellation in accordance with law and reduction of registered capital; the September announcement clarified that this round of repurchased shares is intended to be held as treasury shares and subsequently used to reduce registered capital. The repurchase amount is no more than RMB 13 billion and no less than RMB 6.5 billion, the repurchase price cap is RMB 100 per share, and the repurchase period is within 12 months from the date the board of directors approved the plan. Source: https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12581122&stockid=000333

4.4 September 4, 2026: Repurchase of 61,400 A-Shares

The company repurchased 61,400 A-shares, with a repurchase price range of RMB 86.70 per share to RMB 87.00 per share, a weighted average price of approximately RMB 86.95 per share, and a total payment amount of approximately RMB 5.3386 million. The purchased shares are intended to be held as treasury shares and used in the future to reduce registered capital. This data mainly comes from the Hong Kong stock 00300 "Next Day Disclosure Return" and financial media reprints, and for formal reports it is recommended to use subsequent company A-share repurchase progress announcements as the final basis for verification. Source: https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-09-04/doc-iniqsran0783343.shtml?utm_source=openai

4.5 September 7, 2026: A-Share Repurchase and Issuance of New Shares Due to Stock Option Exercise

The company repurchased 575,000 A-shares, with a repurchase price range of RMB 85.96 per share to RMB 87.00 per share, and a total payment amount of approximately RMB 49.5967 million. The related shares are intended to be held as treasury shares and used in the future to reduce registered capital. On the same day, the company issued 32,832 new shares due to the exercise of the Ninth Stock Option Incentive Plan, with an exercise price of RMB 41.44 per share. Source: https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-09-07/doc-iniqzhfu5377659.shtml?utm_source=openai

4.6 September 9, 2026: A-Share Repurchase and Issuance of New Shares Due to Stock Option Exercise

The company repurchased 467,900 A-shares, with a repurchase price range of RMB 84.50 per share to RMB 86.02 per share, a weighted average price of approximately RMB 85.5236 per share, and a total payment amount of approximately RMB 40.0165 million. The related shares are intended to be held as treasury shares and used in the future to reduce registered capital. On the same day, the company issued 61,270 new shares due to the exercise of the Ninth Stock Option Incentive Plan, with an exercise price of RMB 41.44 per share. Source: https://www.itiger.com/hans/news/1125619071?utm_source=openai

4.7 September 4 to September 9, 2026: Aggregate Continuous Repurchase Situation

Based on the sum of data disclosed on September 4, September 7, and September 9, the company repurchased a total of 1,104,300 A-shares over the three days, with a payment amount of approximately RMB 94.9518 million. This aggregate amount does not include transactions that may have occurred from September 10 to September 13, 2026, but had not yet been disclosed or retrieved. The daily data mainly comes from reprints or secondary compilations of the Hong Kong stock 00300 "Next Day Disclosure Return," and some sources are not the original Shenzhen Stock Exchange A-share announcements.

4.8 2026 Semi-Annual Report: Revenue and Profit Situation

The company's latest formal performance document is the 2026 semi-annual report, disclosed on August 29, 2026. In the first half of 2026, operating revenue was approximately RMB 260.042 billion, up 3.55% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately RMB 26.446 billion, up 1.66% year-on-year; non-recurring-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was approximately RMB 19.595 billion, down 25.31% year-on-year. The above data are formally disclosed data and are not performance forecasts or brokerage consensus estimates. Source: https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12572219&stockid=000333&utm_source=openai

4.9 As of September 13, 2026: No 2026 First Three Quarters Performance Forecast Retrieved

As of September 13, 2026, no performance forecast, performance express report, or obvious announcement of expected performance increase or decrease for the first three quarters of 2026 was retrieved. September announcements mainly focused on repurchases, employee shareholding plans, and investor relations activities.

4.10 As of September 13, 2026: No New Increase or Decrease in Holdings by Major Shareholders Retrieved

As of September 13, 2026, no new announcements of reduction, increase, or changes in equity interests in September 2026 by Midea Group's controlling shareholder Midea Holding Co., Ltd., the actual controller, or shareholders holding more than 5% were retrieved. The non-trading transfer of 15,772,385 shares completed on September 3 was the implementation of the 2026 A-share shareholding plan and should not be directly interpreted as an increase in holdings by major shareholders.

4.11 As of September 13, 2026: No New Large Restricted Share Unlocking Announcements Found

Previously public information showed that some equity incentive restricted shares of Midea Group were unlocked in July 2026, but that matter occurred in July 2026 and is not a new September event. In the available retrieved materials, no new large A-share restricted share unlocking announcements in September 2026 were found.

4.12 As of September 13, 2026: No New Major M&A, Asset Transactions, or Major External Investment Announcements Retrieved

As of September 13, 2026, no new major M&A, asset acquisition, major asset disposal, or major external investment announcements disclosed by the company in September 2026 were retrieved. The 2026 semi-annual report disclosed that in the first half of 2026, the company had no related-party transactions involving asset or equity acquisitions or disposals, nor any major related-party transactions. This information cannot completely rule out routine investments at the level of non-major investments or overseas subsidiaries.

4.13 Regulatory and Policy News: The Investor Collective Reception Day Does Not Constitute Regulatory Penalties or Administrative Measures

The announcement on September 11, 2026 concerns the investor collective reception day organized by the Guangdong Regulatory Bureau and the Guangdong Listed Companies Association. It is a routine activity promoting investor relations and information communication by listed companies and does not constitute a regulatory penalty, inquiry, or administrative measure against Midea Group.

4.14 Recent Comprehensive Judgment: Repurchases and Employee Shareholding Plan Are the Main September Matters

The most core company matters in September were the continuation of repurchases and the implementation of the employee shareholding plan. As of August 31, 2026, the company had cumulatively repurchased approximately RMB 8.020 billion and 99,797,967 shares; from September 4 to September 9, repurchases were still being continuously implemented, and the repurchased shares are intended to be used in the future to reduce registered capital. The employee shareholding plan completed the non-trading transfer of 15,772,385 shares on September 3, with a lock-up period until September 2, 2028. These shares are temporarily not cancellation shares, and the actual number to be cancelled subsequently needs to be based on subsequent announcements regarding the use of treasury shares and cancellation arrangements.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Midea Group closed at RMB 86.26. The share price previously rebounded from the RMB 82-84 area in mid-August to near RMB 89.50 and then fell back, and is currently consolidating near RMB 86. MA5, MA10, and MA50 constitute near-term pressure, while MA20, MA100, and MA200 are below the current price forming support, and the moving averages are generally intertwined. MACD is -0.06 and slightly negative, RSI14 is 49.696 and in the neutral area, and the technical picture has not yet formed a clear one-sided trend. Recent turnover has mainly been in the RMB 1.5 billion-RMB 2 billion range, with a turnover rate of approximately 0.30%-0.32%; on September 11, main large-order net outflow was approximately RMB 88.4887 million, but the share price still rose slightly, indicating that some large funds took profits or adjusted positions that day, while small and medium orders and some large orders absorbed the supply. Overall, the current situation is closer to a high-level consolidation pattern, and the subsequent direction still needs to be observed in conjunction with changes in key price ranges and turnover.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario deduction based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice and does not represent a certain prediction of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weighting, Not Statistical Probability)

• Consolidation and organization (relatively high weight, about 60%; this is a subjective judgment based on current technical and capital conditions, not a statistical probability): price range approximately RMB 85.40-88.30. Trigger conditions include the share price remaining above MA20 at approximately RMB 85.86, absorption appearing in the RMB 85.40-86.10 area, turnover remaining in the recent normal range of approximately RMB 1.5 billion-RMB 2 billion, and no obvious systemic decline in home appliance and large-cap heavyweight sectors. Under this scenario, the share price may fluctuate repeatedly near RMB 86 and test resistance near RMB 88 upward, but may not necessarily break through the 52-week high in one move.
• Weaker downward (medium weight; this is a subjective judgment based on current technical and capital conditions, not a statistical probability): price range approximately RMB 83.20-85.40. Trigger conditions include the closing price falling below RMB 85.40, MACD negative value expanding, main large orders showing net outflow for several consecutive days, or turnover expanding but the share price closing lower, showing volume expansion with stalling or volume expansion with decline. If the RMB 85.40 support is lost, it may retreat toward the RMB 83.20-84.00 area; if that area also fails to stabilize, it may move further toward the stage low of RMB 82.40.
• Rebound and strengthening (low to medium weight; this is a subjective judgment based on current technical and capital conditions, not a statistical probability): price range approximately RMB 88.30-89.50. Trigger conditions include regaining MA5 at approximately RMB 86.47 and MA50 at approximately RMB 86.69, breaking through RMB 88.30-88.50 with volume, single-day turnover clearly higher than the recent normal level of RMB 1.5 billion-RMB 2 billion, and simultaneous strengthening in home appliance heavyweight sectors or overall market style, with main large-order funds shifting from net outflow to continuous net inflow. If conditions are met, it may retest the 52-week high of RMB 89.50; if it breaks through RMB 89.50 but volume does not expand simultaneously, the risk of intraday reversal or a false breakout should be observed.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was approximately 0.30%-0.32%, turnover was approximately RMB 1.926 billion, and turnover in recent trading days was roughly in the RMB 1.5 billion-RMB 2 billion range. On September 11, extra-large orders and large orders combined had a net outflow of approximately RMB 88.4887 million; this capital flow data comes from a single source, Stockstar, and is third-party algorithmic statistics, not equivalent to institution capital flows officially disclosed by the exchange. As of June 30, 2026, the top ten tradable shareholders collectively held approximately 4.463 billion shares, accounting for approximately 59.39% of tradable shares. The top ten shareholders include Midea Holding Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited, HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED, insurance funds, Central Huijin, China Securities Finance Corporation, and index funds, etc., and are not simply composed of the controlling family or industrial capital. It should be noted that the shareholder data is more than two months old as of September 11, 2026, and Hong Kong Securities Clearing, insurance funds, and fund holdings may have changed during the period, so it cannot be directly regarded as the latest real-time ownership structure. Combined with the characteristics of large market capitalization and low turnover, Midea Group's short-term price is relatively sensitive to indices, overseas funds, and large institutional transactions, but it usually does not have the obvious order book fragility and large slippage characteristics of small-cap stocks.

If in the next week single-day turnover continuously expands to more than RMB 2.5 billion while the closing price firmly stands above RMB 88.30, this can be regarded as an observation signal that an upward breakout has gained capital confirmation; if turnover expands but the share price falls below RMB 85.40, this is more likely to indicate volume distribution or downward confirmation.

④ Points of Attention (Only Observation Ideas, Not Operational Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 85.40-86.10 support area can hold, and whether MA20 at approximately RMB 85.86 continues to provide support.
• Observe whether the RMB 88.30-89.50 resistance area shows a volume breakout, and pay attention to whether turnover continuously exceeds RMB 2.5 billion.
• Observe whether main large-order funds can shift from the net outflow on September 11, 2026, to continuous net inflow.
• The above are all observation ideas, not operational instructions.

The above scenario deduction is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital conditions, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments in conjunction with the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

China's home appliance industry has shifted from incremental penetration to stock replacement and structural upgrading, and Smart Home remains Midea's foundation; businesses such as Building Technologies, Industrial Technology, Robotics and Automation, and New Energy have expanded the company's coverage in ToB, industrial customers, and overseas markets. In 2025, the company's Smart Home business revenue accounted for 65.71%, and Commercial and Industrial Solutions revenue accounted for 26.89%.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Growth in traditional major home appliances in the home appliance industry has slowed, and trade-ins, energy-saving policies, and intelligence are driving replacement demand; premiumization, bundled systems, healthization, and AI are product upgrading directions, and overseas markets remain an important growth source for Chinese home appliance leaders.
• Competitive barriers in the home appliance industry are mainly reflected in brands, channels, scale, supply chains, and after-sales service; prices of raw materials such as copper, aluminum, steel, and plastics have a relatively large impact on profit.
• In 2024, China's air conditioner output was 265.984 million units, up 9.7% year-on-year; refrigerator output was 103.957 million units, up 8.3% year-on-year; washing machine output was 117.365 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year. The above data comes from the 2025 home appliance industry report by Lianhe Ratings cited in the research notes.
• The market concentration of the top ten brands in the refrigerator industry exceeds 80%; the air conditioner industry is led by the first group composed of Midea, Gree, and Haier; in 2024, Midea's air conditioner market share online and offline both exceeded 30%.
• In 2025, the market size of China's central air conditioning domestic and export sales was approximately RMB 138.68 billion, down 4.1% year-on-year; domestic sales scale was approximately RMB 112.55 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year. Central air conditioning ToB business accounts for more than 70%, and downstream includes commercial buildings, industry, public buildings, data centers, hospitals, rail transit, and schools.
• The Building Technologies industry has strong project attributes and technical service attributes, and foreign and joint venture brands still have influence; the real estate cycle affects residential and commercial projects, but data centers, industrial energy conservation, and public building renovation have growth potential.
• The core competition in the industrial robotics industry is gradually shifting from unit price to core components, robot body performance, system integration, industry process know-how, software and digital capabilities, after-sales networks, and customer certification.

6.3 Main Competitors

Compared with Haier Smart Home, Midea Group more prominently features category diversification, core components, Building Technologies, and ToB industrial layout; compared with Gree Electric Appliances, its business is more dispersed and its coverage of overseas and new businesses is broader; compared with Hisense Home Appliances and TCL Smart Home, it is larger in scale and has a more complete business chain. In Robotics and Automation, Midea has entered the global first tier of industrial robotics through KUKA, but this business differs greatly from the home appliance business in profitability and cyclical characteristics and cannot simply be evaluated according to the valuation logic of a home appliance company. Industry sources include Midea Group's 2025 annual report, Lianhe Ratings' "2025 Home Appliance Industry Research Report," and the 2025 annual reports of relevant comparable companies; some market shares are external industry data cited in the annual report, such as AVC and MIR Industrial, and the specific data scope should be based on the original reports and the latest annual report.

7. Risk Warnings

• Core profit and headline profit may continue to diverge. In the first half of 2026, non-recurring-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company fell 25.31% year-on-year. Exchange losses and differences in the classification of gains from derivative financial instrument hedging as non-recurring items affected both net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company and non-recurring-adjusted profit. If RMB exchange rate fluctuations continue, profit quality and year-on-year performance may continue to be disturbed.
• Raw material costs are highly sensitive to Midea Group's profitability. In 2025, raw materials accounted for 82.26% of the operating costs of the home appliance business, and the company does not have full pricing power over bulk materials such as copper, aluminum, steel, and plastics; if material prices rise and price increases, product structure upgrading, or procurement efficiency cannot fully offset them, gross margin may come under pressure.
• Competition in the domestic home appliance market may limit revenue and profit growth. Smart Home revenue accounted for 65.71% in 2025, and the mature home appliance business remains the foundation, but domestic demand is in a stock replacement stage, and categories such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines face pressure from promotions, rebates, channel inventory, and price competition, which may affect overall gross margin.
• Overseas business expansion faces operational and financial fluctuation risks. In 2025, overseas revenue accounted for 42.93%, and overseas OBM is still in the stage of building channels, brands, and after-sales systems. Tariffs and trade policies, exchange rate changes, local channel investment, and after-sales costs may compress overseas business profit.
• There is uncertainty regarding the profit realization of ToB and new businesses. Businesses such as Building Technologies, Robotics and Automation, Industrial Technology, New Energy, and healthcare have project-based, customized, customer certification, and higher delivery and payment period requirements, and the gross margin of Commercial and Industrial Solutions is lower than that of Smart Home; if order conversion, project delivery, or scaling speed falls short of expectations, it may drag down profit margins and valuation premiums.
• The company's operating cash flow is volatile. In 2025, net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 53.346 billion, lower than RMB 60.512 billion in 2024; with overseas business expansion and increases in inventory and ToB projects, changes in accounts receivable, inventory, and payment periods may put pressure on cash conversion efficiency.
• The actual capital operation effects of repurchases and the employee shareholding plan still need to be observed. As of August 31, 2026, cumulative repurchased shares accounted for approximately 1.31% of total share capital, and the repurchased shares are intended to be used to reduce registered capital, but subsequent actual cancellation arrangements still need to be confirmed by announcement; the shares transferred under the 2026 shareholding plan are locked until September 2, 2028, and cannot be directly equated with an increase in holdings by the controlling shareholder.
• The share price is near a 52-week high, and valuation is somewhat linked to profit expectations. The closing price on September 11, 2026, was RMB 86.26, relatively close to the 52-week high of RMB 89.50. If non-recurring-adjusted profit continues to decline, institutional profit forecasts are revised downward, or the share price is blocked in the RMB 88.30 to RMB 89.50 resistance range, valuation and short-term volatility risks may be amplified.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Midea Group's medium- and long-term growth logic mainly comes from domestic home appliance stock replacement and product structure upgrading, overseas OBM expansion, and the expansion of ToB businesses such as Building Technologies, Industrial Technology, Robotics and Automation, New Energy, and data center liquid cooling. The global manufacturing and R&D network, core component collaboration, and brand channel capabilities help improve operating efficiency and business risk resistance; 2026 market forecasts still generally point to moderate growth in revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, but different institutions' forecasts for 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company range from RMB 41.5 billion to RMB 63.1 billion, reflecting significant disagreement and uncertainty in assumptions regarding new business volume growth, overseas operations, and exchange rates.

In the short term, the company's revenue growth has slowed somewhat, and non-recurring-adjusted profit has declined significantly. Going forward, it is necessary to observe whether the impact of exchange rates and hedging accounting converges, whether domestic home appliance demand and price competition improve, and whether overseas OBM, Building Technologies, and Robotics and Automation businesses can translate into stable profit. If profit growth can continue, repurchase cancellation, high cash returns, and globalized business will help support valuation; if core business profit margins continue to come under pressure, the profit recovery expectations implied by the current valuation may need to be reassessed.

At the technical level, the share price is currently closer to high-level range consolidation rather than a clear one-sided trend. RMB 85.40 to RMB 86.10 is an important recent support observation range, and RMB 88.30 to RMB 89.50 is a resistance range. The subsequent direction still depends on turnover, capital flow, company performance realization, and changes in overall market style. Technical indicators can only serve as auxiliary observations and cannot replace judgment on fundamentals.

Data Sources

• https://www.midea.com.cn/content/dam/mideacn-aem/%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E8%80%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB/2025%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf.coredownload.inline.pdf
• 联合资信-2025年家电行业研究报告-250625.pdf
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This report was automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of the close on September 11, 2026; that day is the latest available full trading day, and there may be timeliness differences. Specific data should be based on the company's formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is only for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.