Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. (Salt Lake Co.) (000792)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Salt Lake Resource Development, Potash Fertilizer and Lithium Salts　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　As of the 15:00 close on September 11, 2026; the technical-indicator section includes website algorithm results and estimates based on publicly available closing prices. Differences may arise from refresh times, adjustment methods and calculation methodologies.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Salt Lake Co. recorded operating revenue of RMB 13.052 billion in the first half of 2026, up 79.88% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 6.169 billion, up 137.88%; and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 6.001 billion, up 135.19%. Growth was mainly driven by the release of lithium carbonate capacity, a year-on-year recovery in lithium prices, the consolidation of Minmetals Salt Lake, and improvements in potash prices and profitability. Net cash flow from operations was RMB 6.282 billion. Profit growth was broadly consistent with improvements in the core business and cash flow, although the temporary profit boost from recognition of deferred tax assets in 2025 warrants attention.

The company’s core businesses remain potash fertilizer and lithium salts. In 2025, potash products generated approximately RMB 12.030 billion in revenue, accounting for approximately 77.61% of operating revenue, with a gross margin of 60.71%; lithium products generated approximately RMB 2.912 billion, accounting for approximately 18.79%, with a gross margin of 52.03%. In the first half of 2026, potassium chloride sales increased by approximately 26.4% year on year, while lithium carbonate production reached 49,400 tonnes. The 40,000-tonne-per-year integrated basic lithium salt project achieved full-capacity production. Following the consolidation of the 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake, the company’s annual lithium salt capacity increased to approximately 98,000 tonnes, providing a foundation for subsequent production and sales growth.

Relying on the Qarhan and Yiliping salt lakes, the company has developed a combined potash-and-lithium model of “potash as the anchor and lithium extraction from salt lakes as the growth driver.” Its raw-material supply does not depend on large-scale purchases of lithium ore, giving it relative advantages in resources, scale and cost. At the same time, potash and lithium carbonate remain bulk materials whose profitability is highly affected by international and global supply and demand. Further earnings improvement will depend on product prices, capacity ramp-up, recovery-rate improvements and integration synergies with Minmetals Salt Lake. The company’s disclosed “15th Five-Year Plan” includes lithium-resource acquisitions, overseas resource deployment and associated-resource development, but these items are strategic outlines rather than projects that have already been implemented.

As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 25.45, with a trailing P/E of approximately 11.2x. It was below the MA5, MA10 and MA20 moving averages, while the MACD was below the zero axis, indicating weak short-term technical momentum. Meanwhile, RSI6 was approximately 20 and the share price had fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating temporary oversold conditions and the possibility of a technical rebound, although this is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal. Main-force funds recorded net outflows of approximately RMB 276 million that day, while the margin balance was approximately RMB 5.6 billion. Short-term liquidity conditions and leveraged trading may amplify share-price volatility.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Potash products: Potassium resources are extracted from brine at Qarhan and Yiliping salt lakes to produce and sell potassium chloride. In 2025, revenue was approximately RMB 12.030 billion, accounting for approximately 77.61% of operating revenue, with a gross margin of 60.71%.
• Lithium products: Residual brine generated during potassium chloride production is the primary lithium-bearing feedstock. Battery-grade lithium carbonate is produced using an “adsorption + membrane coupling” process. In 2025, revenue was approximately RMB 2.912 billion, accounting for approximately 18.79%, with a gross margin of 52.03%.
• Other and associated resources: The company is exploring the comprehensive utilization of associated salt-lake resources such as magnesium, boron, bromine, rubidium and cesium, and is advancing the acquisition of a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake Co., Ltd.
• Resources and technology: The company has resource bases at Qarhan and Yiliping salt lakes, has developed a combined potash-and-lithium and “dual use of one mine” model, and possesses multiple salt-lake potash production processes and lithium-extraction technologies.

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

Salt Lake Co. is positioned upstream in salt-lake resource development and midstream in potash and lithium-salt production. Its core model is to use proprietary salt-lake brine to extract potassium chloride and then further extract lithium from residual brine. The company is not merely a fertilizer trader or lithium-salt processor; it is an integrated salt-lake resource platform combining “potash as the anchor and salt-lake lithium extraction as the growth driver.”

• Core raw materials are brine from Qarhan and Yiliping salt lakes and residual brine generated during potassium chloride production. The company does not depend on large-scale purchases of lithium ore or lithium concentrate.
• Upstream cost items include salt-lake mining and brine transportation, salt ponds and mining, beneficiation and crystallization equipment, electricity, natural gas and fuel, lithium-extraction adsorbents and membrane materials, related chemical additives, labor, depreciation, environmental protection, resource taxes and mining-right-related costs.
• The company controls the brine resources, which constitute the most important resource barrier; electricity, natural gas, equipment and chemical additives are still procured externally.
• Compared with spodumene and lepidolite routes, the company does not bear the cost of large-scale purchases of lithium ore and theoretically has greater stability in raw-material costs. However, the annual report does not fully disclose the cost breakdown for potash and lithium carbonate, making it impossible to accurately calculate the share of each input in total costs.
• The company does not have full control over external energy, equipment and chemical-additive costs. Prices of potash and lithium-salt products remain primarily affected by international potash prices, lithium carbonate spot and futures prices, and industry supply and demand.
• Potassium chloride is mainly used to produce compound fertilizers. The company disclosed that approximately 47.5% of downstream use in 2025 was compound fertilizer, approximately 39.5% was used to produce potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate, potassium hydroxide and other potassium salts, and approximately 8% was directly applied.
• Potash customers mainly include compound-fertilizer manufacturers, other potassium-salt producers, agricultural-input distributors and certain industrial customers. Major customers listed in meeting minutes include Sinofert, China National Agricultural Means of Production Group, Heilongjiang Beifeng and Sichuan Southwest Salt Lake Trading.
• In 2024, sales to Sinofert were approximately RMB 904 million, sales to China National Agricultural Means of Production Group approximately RMB 676 million, sales to Sichuan Southwest Salt Lake Trading approximately RMB 412 million, and sales to Heilongjiang Beifeng approximately RMB 58 million. These were major related-party transaction disclosures or major sales customers listed in the annual report and cannot be directly equated with the combined share of the top five customers.
• Public materials could not be cross-checked against complete and continuous annual data on the sales share of the top five customers. Customer-concentration data are incomplete and should be confirmed against the latest annual report.
• Potash products are highly commoditized. Domestic prices are affected by international potash prices and imported supply, and Chinese producers are generally price takers internationally. Given its large domestic potassium chloride production scale, Salt Lake Co. has greater influence than ordinary traders and small producers in supply stability, pricing and sales timing.
• Lithium carbonate is mainly sold to lithium-battery cathode-material companies and customers across the lithium-battery value chain. Prices are mainly determined by global supply and demand, lithium carbonate spot and futures prices, and new-energy vehicle and energy-storage demand. The company’s advantages lie primarily in proprietary resources, low cost and scale rather than independent control over market prices.
• According to the 2024 audit report, as of December 31, 2024, the book balance of accounts receivable was approximately RMB 230 million, equivalent to approximately 1.5% of 2024 operating revenue of RMB 15.134 billion; prepayments were approximately RMB 228 million, also approximately 1.5% of operating revenue; accounts payable were approximately RMB 1.823 billion, approximately 12.0% of operating revenue; and contract liabilities were approximately RMB 745 million, approximately 4.9% of operating revenue, mainly representing advances from customers. Net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 7.819 billion. The company explicitly discloses the use of an advance-payment sales model. The low ratio of accounts receivable to revenue, together with relatively high contract liabilities and accounts payable, indicates good collection capacity in potash sales and the ability to ease working-capital requirements through customer advances and supplier credit. However, some receivables and prepayments relate to related parties and historical chemical businesses, so customer bargaining power cannot be fully assessed from these ratios alone and should be further checked against the complete 2025 annual-report notes.
• Customer concentration: The meeting minutes do not provide, and public materials could not cross-check, complete and continuous annual data on the sales share of the top five customers. The 2024 disclosure lists major customers and amounts for Sinofert, China National Agricultural Means of Production Group, Sichuan Southwest Salt Lake Trading and Heilongjiang Beifeng, but these data cannot be directly equated with the combined share of the top five customers. The data sources and methodologies have limitations; the latest annual report should prevail. Supplier concentration: The meeting minutes do not provide verifiable data on the concentration of the top five suppliers.

The company occupies a position of “upstream resource control + midstream resource-based chemical processing.” Its resource end benefits from strong barriers due to its core salt-lake mining rights, while its midstream potash and lithium-salt products remain materials exposed to international and global bulk-commodity prices. The company is not a typical downstream branded, high-margin enterprise. Profit improvement mainly depends on recovery in potash and lithium carbonate prices, lithium-salt capacity ramp-up, integration synergies with Minmetals Salt Lake, higher resource recovery rates, technological cost reductions and economies of scale.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Data as of September 13, 2026. The latest financial report is the 2026 interim report, disclosed on August 25, 2026. Recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent in the first half of 2026 was RMB 6.001 billion, up 135.19% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 1.1657, up 137.85%; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 6.282 billion, up 1.38% from approximately RMB 6.163 billion in the same period of the previous year; and weighted average return on equity was 13.34%, up 6.01 percentage points year on year. In 2025, recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 8.411 billion, up 91.13%, while net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 10.161 billion, up 29.95%.

Revenue and profit both grew rapidly in the first half of 2026. The growth in recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was close to that of reported net profit, indicating that the increase mainly came from improvements in the core business. Incremental performance was mainly driven by the release of lithium carbonate capacity, a year-on-year recovery in lithium prices, the consolidation of Minmetals Salt Lake, and improved potash prices and profitability. In the first half of 2026, potassium chloride production was 1.6817 million tonnes, down approximately 15.5% year on year, while sales were 2.2474 million tonnes, up approximately 26.4%; lithium carbonate production was 49,400 tonnes and sales were 39,100 tonnes. The company’s 40,000-tonne-per-year integrated basic lithium salt project has entered production and reached full capacity. Following the acquisition of a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake, annual lithium-salt capacity increased from approximately 40,000 tonnes to approximately 98,000 tonnes. It should be noted that 2025 net profit was materially boosted by recognition of deferred tax assets at year-end. Profit quality should therefore be assessed together with recurring net profit and operating cash flow.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Institutional forecasts are as of September 11, 2026, and are sourced mainly from the earnings-forecast page of Tonghuashun and excerpts from recent broker reports. They are not official exchange disclosures. The number of institutions and averages differ depending on Tonghuashun’s data-capture time: an earlier page showed 17 institutions, with average net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent of RMB 11.350 billion, RMB 12.688 billion and RMB 13.858 billion for 2026–2028; a September 11, 2026 page summary showed approximately 20 institutions, with averages of RMB 11.742 billion, RMB 13.039 billion and RMB 14.162 billion. This table prioritizes the more recent summary.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

At the September 11, 2026 close, the share price was RMB 25.45. With approximately 5.292 billion shares outstanding, total market capitalization was approximately RMB 134.68 billion. The trailing P/E was approximately 11.18x, recurring P/E approximately 11.36x, P/B approximately 2.55x, and net assets per share approximately RMB 10.00. Based on institutional earnings forecasts, the average 2026 EPS of approximately RMB 2.22 from roughly 20 Tonghuashun institutions implies a 2026 forward P/E of approximately 11.5x. Using the approximately RMB 2.32 average 2026 EPS from 10 recent broker reports implies a forward P/E of approximately 11.0x. Average 2027 EPS of approximately RMB 2.47 implies approximately 10.3x, while average 2028 EPS of approximately RMB 2.68 implies approximately 9.5x. Based on recent broker forecasts, P/E for 2026–2028 is approximately 10.5–11.5x, 9.5–10.5x and 8.5–10.5x, respectively. Current market ratings are mainly “Buy,” “Recommended” or “Outperform.” Southwest Securities’ recent target price is RMB 32.85. Investing shows a 12-month average target price of approximately RMB 44.18–45.18 based on approximately 5–7 analysts, with a low of approximately RMB 36 and a high of approximately RMB 49.80. Tonghuashun’s historical institutional-rating summary shows target prices of approximately RMB 31–45 over the past six months, with an average of approximately RMB 35.95. Differences in target prices reflect differences in timing, institutional coverage and valuation benchmarks and cannot be directly combined into a single market consensus. Valuation depends mainly on lithium carbonate prices, potassium chloride prices, lithium-salt capacity ramp-up and the release of production and sales after Minmetals Salt Lake is consolidated. If lithium prices decline or project output falls short of expectations, earnings forecasts and the valuation center may both be revised downward.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Four Proposals Approved at the Second Extraordinary General Meeting of 2026

Salt Lake Co. held its second extraordinary general meeting of 2026 on September 10, 2026, and disclosed the resolutions on September 11, 2026. The meeting approved four proposals: election of non-independent directors to the ninth Board, addition of an independent director to the ninth Board, amendment of the Measures for the Administration of Related-Party Transactions, and reappointment of BDO China Shu Lun Pan Certified Public Accountants as the auditor for the 2026 financial statements and internal controls. None was rejected. A total of 2,151 shareholders voted, representing 1,768,309,278 shares, or 33.4175% of the total voting shares.

4.2 BDO China Shu Lun Pan Reappointed; 2026 Audit Fees Total RMB 3.72 Million

The company reappointed BDO China Shu Lun Pan Certified Public Accountants to audit the 2026 financial statements and internal controls. Total audit fees are RMB 3.72 million, including RMB 2.92 million for the annual-report audit and RMB 800,000 for the internal-control audit, an increase of RMB 300,000 from 2025. The increase was mainly related to the inclusion of Minmetals Salt Lake Co., Ltd. in the consolidated scope.

4.3 First-Half 2026 Results Officially Released; Net Profit Attributable to Parent Shareholders Up 137.88%

The company’s first-half 2026 report showed operating revenue of RMB 13.052 billion, up 79.88% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB 6.169 billion, up 137.88%; recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent of RMB 6.001 billion, up 135.19%; and basic EPS of RMB 1.1657. Actual net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent was within the previously disclosed performance-guidance range of RMB 6.000–6.300 billion.

4.4 Release of Potash and Lithium-Salt Capacity; Total Lithium-Salt Capacity Increased to Approximately 98,000 Tonnes per Year

In the first half of 2026, potassium chloride production was 1.6817 million tonnes and sales were 2.2474 million tonnes, generating related revenue of approximately RMB 7.137 billion. Lithium carbonate production was 49,400 tonnes and sales were 39,100 tonnes. The 40,000-tonne-per-year integrated basic lithium salt project achieved full production, and following the consolidation of Minmetals Salt Lake, the company’s total lithium-salt capacity increased to approximately 98,000 tonnes per year.

4.5 Company Discloses “15th Five-Year Plan,” Plans Lithium-Resource Acquisitions and Overseas Resource Deployment

On August 26, 2026, the company disclosed the Outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan” Development Plan and Three-Year Action Plan (2026–2028). It proposed building a world-class salt-lake industrial base by 2030, advancing stable and higher production of potash and lithium, digital salt lakes and comprehensive recycling, and carrying out an “outbound expansion campaign, integration campaign and geological exploration campaign.” The plan calls for continued efforts to acquire lithium resources, attempts to obtain key mineral resources such as phosphate and fluorite, overseas resource deployment, and research and development of technologies for lithium extraction from raw brine and development of magnesium, boron, rubidium and uranium resources. The plan is a strategic outline. Its forward-looking content does not constitute a substantive commitment to investors and should not be regarded as specific acquisitions that have already been implemented.

4.6 Acquisition of 51% of Minmetals Salt Lake Completed and Consolidated

The company planned to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake Co., Ltd. from its controlling shareholder, China Salt Lake Industry Group Co., Ltd., for approximately RMB 4.605 billion in cash. The acquisition was completed in the first quarter of 2026 and the target was consolidated. The original transaction announcement showed committed net profits for Minmetals Salt Lake of RMB 668.4 million, RMB 691.7 million and RMB 745.0 million for 2026–2028, respectively.

4.7 Shaanxi Coal Industry’s Stake Fell to 4.999998% After Reduction

Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. reduced its holding in Salt Lake Co. by 1,638,397 shares on April 9, 2026, equivalent to 0.030962% of the company’s total shares. Its holding fell from 5.030960% to 4.999998%, meaning it was no longer a shareholder holding more than 5%. The disclosed reason was Shaanxi Coal Industry’s own operating-fund needs. As of September 13, 2026, no formal announcement was identified showing that Shaanxi Coal Industry had made further reductions from August to September 2026.

4.8 No New Repurchase Proposal or 2026 China Minmetals Increase Plan Disclosed So Far

During investor interactions from July to September 2026, investors repeatedly asked about share repurchases, share increases and market-value management. The company replied that announcements on statutory disclosure platforms should prevail and did not provide a specific repurchase amount, price range or implementation timetable. As of September 13, 2026, no formal share-repurchase proposal disclosed by the company had been identified, nor had any formal announcement been found indicating that China Minmetals had restarted its increase plan in 2026. China Minmetals previously accumulated 248,093,348 shares of Salt Lake Co. between May 20 and August 6, 2025, equivalent to approximately 4.69% of total shares; that increase plan has been completed.

4.9 No Interim Dividend; Dividend Conditions Require Further Monitoring

The company will not distribute cash dividends, bonus shares or capital-reserve-to-share-capital conversions for the first half of 2026. In investor-relations activities, the company stated that as of the first quarter of 2026, undistributed profit in the consolidated statements had turned positive, but undistributed profit in the parent-company statements had not yet turned positive. Future shareholder returns will be coordinated based on statutory dividend conditions and funding needs.

4.10 Company Improves Related-Party Transaction, Overseas Investment and Internal Decision-Making Systems

In August 2026, the company disclosed the Measures for the Administration of Overseas Investment and amended internal systems concerning related-party transaction management, investment decisions, Board authorization and the rules of procedure for general-manager office meetings. It also disclosed a continuing risk-assessment report concerning Minmetals Finance Company. The Measures for the Administration of Related-Party Transactions were approved at the second extraordinary general meeting on September 10, 2026. These improvements relate to the inclusion of Minmetals Salt Lake, the advancement of overseas resource deployment and stronger investment controls, but do not indicate that a specific overseas acquisition has already been implemented. As of September 13, 2026, based on the public information reviewed, no latest formal announcement was identified indicating that the company had received a major penalty from the CSRC or Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

5. Share-Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Salt Lake Co. closed at RMB 25.45, down 3.49% on the day, with approximately 61.65 million shares traded and turnover of approximately RMB 1.564 billion, representing a moderate-volume decline. The share price was below MA5, MA10 and MA20; MACD was below the zero axis and its histogram was negative, indicating weak short-term moving-average and momentum signals. At the same time, estimated RSI6 was approximately 20 and the closing price fell below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating temporary oversold conditions and the possibility of a technical rebound, but not enough to confirm a trend reversal. In terms of fund flows, main-force funds recorded a net outflow of approximately RMB 276 million on September 11, while the margin balance was approximately RMB 5.6 billion as of September 10. Short-term fund conditions were weak and leveraged funds could amplify volatility. Shareholder data as of June 30, 2026 showed that the top 10 tradable shareholders held approximately 47.83% of tradable shares and institutions held approximately 53.20%, while the number of shareholders increased 20.43% in the second quarter. The data lag by one quarter.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice or a single-point price forecast.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound recovery (relatively higher weight, approximately 50%; this is a subjective heuristic judgment based on the current technical pattern and fund flows, not a statistical probability): Price range of approximately RMB 25.00–26.40. Trigger conditions include support emerging in the RMB 25.00–25.70 area, no further significant expansion in intraday volume, and the share price recovering above RMB 25.70 and rebounding toward RMB 26.30. Estimated RSI6 entering the oversold range and the closing price falling below the lower Bollinger Band support the possibility of mean reversion. However, MACD remains below the zero axis and main-force funds recorded a significant net outflow on September 11, so this would be more likely a weak rebound or low-level consolidation than a confirmed trend reversal.
• Weak downside move (medium weight, approximately 30%; this is a subjective heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability): Price range of approximately RMB 24.40–25.20. Trigger conditions include a break below RMB 25.00, daily turnover remaining above recent normal levels, continued net outflows of main-force funds, or simultaneous weakness in chemical, lithium-salt and resource sectors. The closing price is currently below MA5, MA10 and MA20, MACD is negative and September 11 saw a volume-backed decline. If the RMB 25 round-number level is lost, the share price may seek a new trading balance near RMB 24.40.
• Strengthening rebound (lower weight, approximately 20%; this is a subjective heuristic judgment based on the current indicators, not a statistical probability): Price range of approximately RMB 26.30–27.50. Trigger conditions include a recovery above RMB 26.30 and a further breakout above RMB 26.80–26.90, accompanied by daily turnover remaining above RMB 2.0 billion and main-force funds shifting from net outflows to continuous net inflows. A clear coordinated rise in lithium salts, potash or chemical stocks would increase confirmation of the rebound. If the price merely rebounds on lower volume without breaking RMB 26.80–26.90, it should still be viewed primarily as a technical bounce.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, daily turnover was approximately 1.17%, turnover approximately RMB 1.564 billion and average volume over the latest 10 trading days approximately 52.92 million shares. Recent turnover was generally in the range of RMB 1.1–2.2 billion. For a large-cap resource and chemical stock with approximately 5.292 billion shares outstanding, the current turnover ratio is not high, although absolute turnover is substantial. The meeting minutes do not indicate the extreme liquidity shortage typically associated with small-cap stocks. Main-force funds recorded a net outflow of approximately RMB 276 million on September 11. The margin balance was approximately RMB 5.6 billion as of September 10, accounting for approximately 4.01% of tradable market capitalization, which could amplify short-term volatility during a decline. As of June 30, 2026, the top 10 tradable shareholders held approximately 47.83% of tradable shares and institutions held approximately 53.20%, while the number of shareholders increased 20.43% in the second quarter. Most institutional holdings came from the controlling shareholder, state-owned capital and other institutional categories, while funds held approximately 5.52% of tradable shares. These ownership data lag by one quarter and may have changed. A measurable price-volume signal would be that if daily turnover repeatedly expands above RMB 2.0 billion during the coming week while the share price recovers the RMB 26.30–26.90 area, this could indicate renewed fund participation or stronger short-term support. If turnover expands while the price breaks below RMB 25, it would more likely indicate selling pressure rather than effective accumulation.

Observation signal: If daily turnover repeatedly expands above RMB 2.0 billion and the share price simultaneously recovers the RMB 26.30–26.90 area, this may be viewed as a price-volume confirmation of renewed fund activity or stronger short-term support. If higher volume accompanies a break below RMB 25, it should be distinguished as selling-pressure release.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: monitor whether the RMB 25.00–25.70 area, particularly the RMB 25 round-number level, can form effective support.
• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: monitor whether the share price can recover the RMB 26.30–26.90 resistance zone and whether turnover expands alongside the breakout.
• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: monitor whether the negative MACD value narrows and whether RSI6 forms a bullish divergence or rebound after entering oversold territory.
• Observation framework, not a trading instruction: monitor whether turnover repeatedly exceeds RMB 2.0 billion and improves in tandem with main-force fund flows; also monitor the potential amplification of short-term volatility caused by the margin balance remaining high.

The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and estimates of historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices will also be affected by news flow, fund flows, the broader market, and the performance of chemical and lithium-salt sectors. Technical indicators have inherent lag and limitations. This analysis does not guarantee future actual performance and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks themselves.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Conditions

The global potash industry is highly concentrated. Major producers include Nutrien, Belaruskali, Uralkali, Mosaic and K+S. Global annual potash capacity was approximately 65.20 million tonnes in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately 76.00 million tonnes by 2028. Canada, Russia and Belarus together account for approximately 65% of global production. China’s potash industry has a structure of “domestic resource-based leaders + imports as a supplement.” In 2024, China’s potassium chloride production was approximately 6.205 million tonnes, imports approximately 12.63 million tonnes and import dependence approximately 67%. Competition in salt-lake lithium extraction centers on the magnesium-to-lithium ratio and brine grade, extraction technology, recovery rate, product quality, unit cost, freshwater and energy conditions, ecological and environmental constraints, and the ability to achieve large-scale continuous production.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Global potash supply is concentrated in major producing countries such as Canada, Russia and Belarus. Production plans, export policies and geopolitics can materially affect international potash prices.
• China is a major global potash consumer, but domestic resources are relatively insufficient. Domestic potash prices are affected by international prices, imported supply and ocean-freight costs.
• Domestic resource-based potash producers are concentrated mainly in Qinghai’s Qarhan Salt Lake, Xinjiang’s Lop Nur and a limited number of other salt-lake areas. Salt Lake Co., Tibet Urban Development and Resources Co. and SDIC Luobupo together account for approximately 74% of total resource-based capacity above 1.00 million tonnes, and Salt Lake Co. is in the first tier of China’s potassium chloride industry.
• Salt Lake Co.’s core competitive advantages are the Qarhan Salt Lake resources, large potassium chloride scale, mature production system, combined potash-and-lithium production and comprehensive resource utilization. Lithium carbonate prices are still determined by global supply and demand.
• Minmetals Salt Lake is located at Yiliping Salt Lake. Following completion of the acquisition, the company’s resource-control area expanded from the single Qarhan Salt Lake to the two large bases of Qarhan and Yiliping. The integrated capacities of approximately 5.30 million tonnes per year of potassium chloride and approximately 95,000 tonnes per year of lithium carbonate represent theoretical or designed capacity after asset integration. Actual output will depend on project ramp-up, mining-right utilization, process stability and product qualification rates.
• Industry data are drawn from company annual reports and those of competitors. Specific capacity, international prices and export policies may change with geopolitics and the commissioning of new projects. Some data are not based on a uniform third-party database methodology.

6.3 Major Competitors

Salt Lake Co. and Zangge Mining are both located at Qarhan Salt Lake and have the most similar business structures, but Salt Lake Co. is larger in potassium chloride and lithium-salt capacity, production systems and market influence. SDIC Luobupo has differentiated advantages in potassium sulfate and chloride-sensitive crops. Asia-Potash International and Dongfang Tower are adding potash supply to China and Southeast Asia through Lao resources. Tibet Mineral Development is more focused on salt-lake lithium growth. Overall, Salt Lake Co.’s relative advantages are large domestic salt-lake resources, large-scale potash production, synergies from lithium extraction from residual brine and comprehensive resource utilization. Its major risks are that potash and lithium carbonate prices are affected by international and global supply and demand, while newly integrated capacity still requires project ramp-up and process-stability validation.

7. Risk Factors

• Potash price risk: Potash products accounted for approximately 77.61% of 2025 operating revenue, making earnings highly sensitive to potassium chloride prices. China’s potassium chloride prices are affected by international potash prices, imported supply, ocean-freight costs, and supply and export policies in major producing countries such as Canada, Russia and Belarus. A price decline could pressure potash gross margin and overall profit.
• Lithium carbonate price risk: Lithium products accounted for approximately 18.79% of 2025 operating revenue. Lithium carbonate prices remain determined by global supply and demand, spot and futures prices, and new-energy vehicle and energy-storage demand. Even with salt-lake resources and cost advantages, another decline in lithium prices could lead to simultaneous downward revisions to lithium-business revenue, gross margin and institutional earnings forecasts.
• New capacity and integration risk: The 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake has been consolidated and lithium-salt capacity has increased to approximately 98,000 tonnes per year, but integrated capacity does not equal actual output. Future performance will depend on project ramp-up, mining-right utilization, process stability and product qualification rates. There is uncertainty over whether Minmetals Salt Lake can continue to meet its earnings commitments.
• Potassium chloride production-sales mismatch risk: In the first half of 2026, potassium chloride production was 1.6817 million tonnes, down approximately 15.5% year on year, while sales were 2.2474 million tonnes, up approximately 26.4%. If production recovery, inventory and sales timing are mismatched, subsequent supply capacity, inventory levels and operating cash flow could be affected.
• Salt-lake resource and operating risk: The company depends on brine from Qarhan and Yiliping salt lakes. Production involves salt ponds, mining, beneficiation and crystallization equipment, brine transportation, energy, adsorbents and membrane materials. Changes in resource grade, recovery rates, equipment operation or process stability could increase unit costs or cause production to fall short of expectations.
• Energy, additive and environmental-cost risk: Although the company does not depend on large-scale purchases of lithium ore, costs for electricity, natural gas, fuel, chemical additives, environmental protection and resource taxes remain affected by external conditions. Rising energy and additive prices or tighter ecological and environmental constraints could weaken the cost advantages of potash and lithium salts.
• Resource-acquisition and overseas-deployment risk: The “15th Five-Year Plan” proposes further lithium-resource acquisitions, overseas resource deployment and the acquisition of phosphate, fluorite and other resources, but these items are currently strategic outlines and do not constitute commitments to specific projects. If future acquisitions, investments or overseas projects progress more slowly than expected, growth expectations could be affected and funding and integration pressure could arise.
• Share-price and margin-trading volatility risk: As of September 11, 2026, the share price was below MA5, MA10 and MA20, MACD was below the zero axis and main-force funds recorded a net outflow of approximately RMB 276 million. The margin balance was approximately RMB 5.6 billion, or approximately 4.01% of tradable market capitalization. Continued weakness could amplify short-term volatility and forced deleveraging.
• Dividend and shareholder-return uncertainty: The company will not pay an interim dividend for the first half of 2026. Undistributed profit in the parent-company statements has not yet turned positive, and future dividends must satisfy statutory conditions and be coordinated with funding needs, creating uncertainty regarding the timing of cash returns.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Salt Lake Co.’s growth logic comes mainly from two sources. First, the potash business provides a relatively stable earnings base through resource control, production scale and domestic supply stability. Second, the commissioning of the 40,000-tonne-per-year lithium-salt project and consolidation of Minmetals Salt Lake are expanding lithium-salt capacity. If capacity continues to be released steadily and product qualification rates and recovery rates improve, the lithium business could become an incremental source of profit. First-half 2026 results already reflected the combined impact of improvements in both the potash and lithium businesses and asset consolidation.

Future earnings elasticity will still depend on potassium chloride and lithium carbonate prices, production and sales releases after the integration of Minmetals Salt Lake, and the effectiveness of technological cost reductions. Institutional average forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent in 2026–2028 are approximately RMB 11.742 billion, RMB 13.039 billion and RMB 14.162 billion, respectively, but the forecast ranges are wide and the data are not official exchange disclosures. Actual results may be affected by product prices and project operations. Valuation also depends mainly on lithium-salt prices, potash prices and the realization of new capacity.

The current share price is in a temporary pullback phase. The RMB 25.00–25.70 area and RMB 26.30–26.90 area represent technical support and short-term resistance zones, respectively. Technical indicators only reflect historical prices and fund behavior and cannot replace fundamental analysis. Investors should continue to monitor potash and lithium carbonate prices, lithium-salt and Minmetals Salt Lake capacity utilization, profit realization after consolidation, operating cash flow, and the actual implementation of resource acquisitions and overseas deployment.

Data Sources

• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: 2024 Annual Report Summary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: 2025 Annual Report Summary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Annual Report Review: Improving Potash and Lithium Industry Conditions; Continued Investment in Salt-Lake Resource Development Projects_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Stock Code: 000792
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) - Core Revenue Composition - Stock Market Center - Sohu Securities
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: 2024 Annual Audit Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Xiao Jingji - Salt Lake Co.
• Zangge Mining (000408)_Company Announcements_Zangge Mining: 2025 Board of Directors Work Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Company Announcements_Asia-Potash International: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Dongfang Tower (002545)_Company Announcements_Dongfang Tower: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co.: First-Half 2026 Net Profit Attributable to Parent Shareholders Up 137.88%
• Salt Lake Co.: 2025 Annual Report_Annual Reports_Company Announcements_Daily Must-Read_Stocks_Stockstar
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Stock Quote, Market Overview_CFi
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Southwest Securities: Lowers Salt Lake Co. Target Price to RMB 32.85, Maintains Buy Rating_Broker Research_Stockstar
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Stock Quote, Market Overview_CFi
• Salt Lake Co. Main-Force Funds Net Outflow over the Past Five Days; September 8 Net Proportion Near Average; Valuation at Historical Low_Economic Observer
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: Resolution of the Second Extraordinary General Meeting of 2026_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: Announcement on Reappointment of the 2026 Financial Statement and Internal-Control Auditor_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-08/1225416252.PDF
• Salt Lake Co.: Summary of the 2026 Interim Report_Stock Channel_Stockstar
• Salt Lake Co.’s First-Half Net Profit Attributable to Parent Shareholders Up 137.88%; Annual Lithium-Salt Capacity Jumps to 98,000 Tonnes_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: Outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan” Development Plan and Three-Year Action Plan (2026–2028)_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: Announcement on Conducting Lithium Carbonate Futures Hedging Business_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: Announcement on Change in Shareholder Rights Reaching a 1% Incremental Threshold_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Company Announcements_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co.: All Major Company Matters Strictly Follow Regulatory Requirements
• Security Code: 000792  Security Short Name: Salt Lake Co.  Announcement No.: 2025-042
• Salt Lake Co. (000792)_Company Announcements_Salt Lake Co.: Resolution of the Second Extraordinary General Meeting of 2026_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792): Measures for the Administration of Overseas Investment of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd._CFi
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts_Investing.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Latest Stock Price, Real-Time Chart and Share-Price Analysis_Investing.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Technical Analysis, Forecasts and Trading Recommendations_Investing.com
• Salt Lake Co. (000792.SZ) K-Line Chart and Technical Analysis | KlineVision | Kline Vision
• RMB 3.523 Billion Flows Out of Basic Chemical Stocks Today_Eastmoney
• Salt Lake Co. (SZ000792)_Stock Details and Fund-Flow Analysis - Reed Review
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Latest Updates_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Salt Lake Co. (000792) Shareholder Research_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on information from public channels. Information is current as of the 15:00 close on September 11, 2026. The technical-indicator section includes website algorithm results and estimates based on publicly available closing prices. Differences may arise from refresh times, adjustment methods and calculation methodologies, and information may differ in timeliness. Specific data should be based on the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.