YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. (000902)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Phosphate Fertilizers and Phosphorus Chemicals　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　As of the September 11, 2026 close; market data, technical indicators and fund-flow data are based on that closing date, while shareholder-structure data are as of June 30, 2026 and therefore subject to a quarterly lag.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

YONFER remains a midstream phosphorus-chemicals company centered on phosphate fertilizers. In 2025, phosphate-fertilizer revenue was RMB 17.048 billion, accounting for 94.45% of operating revenue. The company has approximately 10.34 million tonnes per year of high-concentration phosphate-fertilizer capacity and approximately 1.95 million tonnes per year of monoammonium phosphate and industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate capacity. It has also developed competitive advantages combining brand strength, distribution channels, product formulations and agricultural technical services. In 2025, the company generated operating revenue of RMB 18.048 billion, up 15.97% year on year, and attributable net profit of RMB 1.612 billion, up 22.61%; gross margin increased to 17.41%.

Profit improvement was mainly driven by higher phosphate-fertilizer sales, product-mix upgrades and stronger supporting capabilities across the industrial chain. In 2025, revenue from new-type compound fertilizers was RMB 4.957 billion, up 16.10%, with a gross margin of 23.40%, 10.11 percentage points higher than that of conventional compound fertilizers. Revenue from fine chemicals and new-energy materials was RMB 519 million, up 50.78%, but accounted for only 2.88% of total revenue and has not yet changed the company’s phosphate-fertilizer-centered business profile. The company can process more than 7 million tonnes of phosphogypsum annually and also has supporting capabilities in sulfuric acid, synthetic ammonia, potash imports and logistics across multiple production bases.

Revenue growth continued in the first half of 2026, with operating revenue reaching RMB 11.281 billion, up 20.03% year on year. However, attributable net profit increased only 1.01% to RMB 961 million, while recurring attributable net profit rose 4.63%; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 467 million, down 53.51%. Higher prices for sulfur and other raw materials pressured phosphate-fertilizer profitability. Support came partly from the higher gross margin of new-type compound fertilizers and the turnaround of the iron phosphate business. This indicates that the transmission of revenue expansion into profit and cash flow remains under pressure.

As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 14.18, with a dynamic P/E of approximately 10.97x and a P/B of approximately 1.36x. Valuation was relatively low compared with the company’s historical levels. However, after a high-volume advance on September 8, the share price declined for several consecutive sessions, falling below the MA5 and MA10 and remaining only slightly above the MA20. Support from major funds has weakened somewhat. The company is also advancing projects involving lithium iron phosphate and supporting iron-phosphate facilities, but project investment, construction progress and market returns remain uncertain.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Phosphate-fertilizer business: Revenue was RMB 17.048 billion in 2025, accounting for 94.45% of operating revenue and remaining the absolute core business. Phosphate-fertilizer revenue was RMB 4.709 billion, accounting for 26.09% of operating revenue, with monoammonium phosphate as the main product and industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate also produced. Conventional compound-fertilizer revenue was RMB 7.381 billion, accounting for 40.90% of operating revenue, while new-type compound-fertilizer revenue was RMB 4.957 billion, accounting for 27.46%.
• Phosphate-fertilizer production and sales: In 2025, phosphate-fertilizer sales were 5.9213 million tonnes, up 7.93% year on year, while output was 6.8943 million tonnes, up 7.61%. Phosphate-fertilizer output and sales were 2.1249 million tonnes and 1.2717 million tonnes, respectively; compound-fertilizer output and sales were 4.7694 million tonnes and 4.6496 million tonnes, respectively.
• New-type compound fertilizers: Products include specialty-formula fertilizers, nitro-sulfur compound fertilizers, slow- and controlled-release compound fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers and bio-organic fertilizers, serving rice, corn, wheat, vegetables, fruit trees and flowers. Gross margin was 23.40% in 2025, higher than the 13.29% gross margin of conventional compound fertilizers.
• Fine chemicals and new-energy materials: Revenue was RMB 519 million in 2025, accounting for 2.88% of operating revenue and increasing 50.78% year on year. Related businesses include iron phosphate, refined phosphoric acid, fine fluorochemicals and fine silicon chemicals. The company has approximately 100,000 tonnes per year of iron-phosphate capacity. Iron phosphate is a midstream product in the phosphorus-chemicals chain and an important precursor for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials.
• Comprehensive phosphogypsum utilization: Phosphogypsum is a by-product of wet-process phosphoric-acid production. The company has built multiple comprehensive-utilization projects with annual processing capacity exceeding 7 million tonnes. Products and applications include building materials, gypsum products and other comprehensive-utilization fields.
• Resources and supporting capabilities: The company has supporting basic-chemical capabilities in sulfuric acid and synthetic ammonia, as well as self-operated import rights for potash. Some production bases are close to the Yangtze River and can reduce logistics costs for bulk materials such as phosphate rock, sulfur and fertilizers through water transportation.

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

YONFER is positioned in the “phosphate rock–phosphoric acid–phosphate fertilizer–compound fertilizer–agricultural-input distribution” value chain. It is broadly a midstream phosphate-fertilizer leader rather than a pure upstream resource company. The company has strengthened its integration capabilities through phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, synthetic ammonia, phosphogypsum processing and its multi-base footprint, while improving profitability through its compound-fertilizer brand, distribution channels and product-mix upgrades.

• Major inputs include phosphate rock, sulfur, pyrite, synthetic ammonia and potash, as well as fuel, electricity and transportation services. In 2025, materials costs for the phosphate-fertilizer business were RMB 12.155 billion, accounting for 86.89% of phosphate-fertilizer operating costs; labor costs accounted for 3.62%, manufacturing expenses 3.97%, fuel and power 3.78%, and transportation and other expenses 1.74%.
• The company does not have full pricing power over bulk raw materials such as phosphate rock, potash, sulfur and synthetic ammonia. These materials have strong cyclical characteristics, and the company remains partly a price taker.
• Through its own phosphate rock, self-produced synthetic ammonia, sulfuric-acid facilities, potash import rights and multi-base footprint, the company reduces external procurement, logistics costs and the risk of supply interruptions. However, this does not establish that the company is fully self-sufficient in phosphate-rock resources.
• In 2025, purchases from the five largest suppliers totaled RMB 2.498 billion, accounting for 20.70% of total purchases. The annual report did not disclose the specific supplier names, making it impossible to determine which suppliers provided phosphate rock, potash, sulfur and other key raw materials. This concentration does not reach the level of high dependence described in the meeting notes, but analysis of the supplier structure is limited by the available information.
• The company’s annual report discloses phosphate-rock capacity of approximately 900,000 tonnes per year but does not provide directly verifiable listed-company-caliber phosphate-rock reserves. Some mining rights within the controlling shareholder’s system involve complex geological conditions, low grades, difficult extraction or uncertainty over resource verification and cannot all be regarded as currently mineable or usable resources of the listed company.
• Downstream customers mainly include distributors, agricultural-input retailers, growers and overseas customers. The company has more than 6,000 tier-one distributors and more than 70,000 retail terminals. Its sales network covers most provinces, municipalities and county-level markets in China, and its products are exported to approximately 40 countries and regions.
• Overseas revenue was RMB 1.276 billion in 2025, accounting for 7.07% of operating revenue and increasing 113.34% from RMB 598 million in 2024. The domestic market remains primarily dependent on demand from agricultural-input distributors, retailers and growers, while overseas business is not yet a major source of revenue.
• Sales to the five largest customers totaled RMB 1.448 billion in 2025, accounting for 8.02% of annual sales, with no related-party sales. This data relates to 2025; the meeting notes did not provide customer concentration data for other years. Customers are disclosed under anonymous names in the annual report, preventing further analysis of their specific industries and cooperation stability.
• Compound-fertilizer customers are relatively dispersed, with low single-customer concentration. Distributors adjust procurement schedules according to agricultural-input prices, planting seasons and inventory levels. Fertilizer sales are highly seasonal, and distributors generally become cautious about stocking during periods of falling prices.
• Leading companies with advantages in branding, product formulation, agricultural technical services and channel coverage have stronger terminal sell-through and channel stickiness than smaller producers. However, compound fertilizers remain broadly competitive products, and the company cannot fully pass higher raw-material costs on to downstream customers.
• The company must also continue to bear the costs of channel maintenance, brand promotion, agricultural technical services and inventory management.
• As of December 31, 2025, accounts receivable were RMB 388 million, accounting for 1.89% of total assets and approximately 2.15% of 2025 operating revenue. Accounts-receivable turnover days were approximately 6.95 days. Inventories were RMB 4.552 billion, accounting for 22.15% of total assets, with inventory turnover days of approximately 99.69 days. The low ratio of accounts receivable to revenue and the low turnover days indicate relatively rapid sales collection and no obvious large-scale, long-term credit occupation within the distributor system. However, the high inventory ratio and nearly 100 inventory turnover days indicate risks of capital tied up by seasonal stocking, raw-material price volatility and mismatches between production and sales.
• In 2025, purchases from the five largest suppliers accounted for 20.70% of total purchases, while sales to the five largest customers accounted for 8.02% of annual sales. Supplier concentration was higher than customer concentration, but the meeting notes did not provide specific supplier or customer names, and customer concentration data were provided only for 2025. The latest annual report should be consulted for details.

The company operates in the midstream phosphate-fertilizer processing, branding and distribution-channel segments. Overall, it is a midstream processing, material-cost-sensitive company rather than an upstream resource company or a high-margin downstream consumer brand. Further margin expansion will primarily depend on higher self-sufficiency in phosphate rock and other core raw materials, industrial-chain integration, scale-driven reductions in costs and logistics risks, and a higher contribution from new-type compound fertilizers, specialty fertilizers, fine phosphorus chemicals and new-energy materials. The gross margin of new-type compound fertilizers was 10.11 percentage points higher than that of conventional compound fertilizers in 2025, providing direct evidence that product-mix upgrades are currently improving profitability.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The 2026 semiannual report was disclosed on August 18, 2026. The reporting period was January 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, and the figures were unaudited. Recurring attributable net profit in the first half of 2026 was RMB 954 million, up 4.63% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 0.7659, up 1.02%. Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 467 million, down 53.51% year on year; weighted-average ROE was 7.81%, down 0.84 percentage points. Recurring attributable net profit in 2025 was RMB 1.536 billion, up 23.79% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 1.28.

Operating revenue maintained relatively rapid growth in the first half of 2026, but attributable net-profit growth was materially below revenue growth and operating cash flow declined year on year, indicating that raw-material costs and earnings quality remain areas of concern. By product, phosphate-fertilizer revenue was approximately RMB 2.605 billion, up 12.75%, with a gross margin of approximately 13.63%; conventional compound-fertilizer revenue was approximately RMB 4.420 billion, up 15.53%, with a gross margin of approximately 12.66%; and new-type compound-fertilizer revenue was approximately RMB 3.330 billion, up 16.87%, with a gross margin of approximately 24.91%. Higher prices for sulfur and other raw materials pressured phosphate-fertilizer profitability, while new-type compound fertilizers and industrial-chain integration supported overall profitability.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Earnings forecasts are sourced from the THS earnings-forecast page and publicly displayed institutional samples. As of September 11, 2026, the THS page showed forecasts from 16 institutions over the preceding six months. The 2026 forecast for attributable net profit was RMB 1.712 billion, up approximately 6.21% year on year, with forecast EPS of RMB 1.36 and average forecast operating revenue of approximately RMB 20.592 billion. Data for 2027 and 2028 are simple averages of forecasts from 10 institutions directly visible on the page and do not represent the official consensus of all 16 institutions shown by THS. Institutional forecasts are affected by raw-material prices, phosphate-fertilizer gross margins, project commissioning schedules, product prices and changes in industry competition.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

As of the September 11, 2026 close, the share price was approximately RMB 14.18, total market capitalization was approximately RMB 17.8–18.0 billion, dynamic P/E was approximately 10.97x, adjusted P/E was approximately 11.28x, and P/B was approximately 1.36x. According to Lixinger data as of September 10, 2026, the share price was RMB 14.40, PE-TTM was approximately 11.14x, P/B was approximately 1.46x, and the historical percentile of PE-TTM was approximately 10.88%, indicating a relatively low valuation versus the company’s own history. Based on institutional forecast EPS, a share price of RMB 14.18 corresponds to a 2026 forecast P/E of approximately 10.4x using EPS of RMB 1.36, or approximately 10.3x using the average EPS of RMB 1.38 from 10 institutions. The simple-average forecast P/Es for 2027 and 2028 are approximately 8.4x and 7.8x, respectively. Based on the September 11, 2026 closing price, target prices of RMB 17.28, RMB 18.00 and RMB 19.58 imply potential upside of approximately 21.9%, 26.9% and 38.1%, respectively. These valuation figures are affected by the closing time, TTM methodology, whether non-recurring items are excluded and the treatment of share capital. Target prices come from individual or selected institutional reports and do not constitute a unified multi-institution consensus.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Semiannual Report: Revenue Growth but Low Net-Profit Growth

YONFER disclosed its 2026 semiannual report on August 18, 2026. In the first half of 2026, operating revenue was RMB 11.281 billion, up 20.03% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 961 million, up 1.01%; net profit excluding non-recurring items was approximately RMB 954 million, up 4.63%; and net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 467 million, down 53.51%. Management stated that higher prices for sulfur and other raw materials pressured phosphate-fertilizer profitability, while higher compound-fertilizer sales, a greater share of new fertilizers, increased potash imports and the year-on-year turnaround of the iron-phosphate business provided some support.

4.2 Implementation of an Interim Cash Dividend for 2026

The company’s board reviewed the interim dividend plan on August 14, 2026, and the related announcements were disclosed from August 18 to August 19. The plan provides for a cash dividend of RMB 0.10 per share, or RMB 1 per 10 shares, including tax, with no bonus shares and no capitalization of capital reserves. The implementation base disclosed in the announcement was 1,254,734,262 shares, implying total cash dividends of approximately RMB 125 million. The record date was August 25, 2026, while the ex-dividend and dividend-payment date was August 26, 2026.

4.3 Conversion Price of Yangfeng Convertible Bonds Reduced Due to Dividend

Following the interim cash dividend, the conversion price of the “Yangfeng Convertible Bonds” was adjusted from RMB 16.89 per share to RMB 16.79 per share, effective August 26, 2026. Conversion of the bonds was temporarily suspended during the interim distribution, and subsequent announcements indicated that conversion had resumed. A lower conversion price may increase the likelihood of conversion, but actual conversion will still depend on the underlying share price, the bond premium, market interest rates and investor decisions.

4.4 No New Standalone Earnings Forecast Identified

As of September 13, 2026, the latest formal earnings document identified was the 2026 semiannual report. No separate semiannual earnings forecast, third-quarter earnings forecast or earnings flash report issued by the company in September 2026 had been identified. Announcement searches may be subject to platform delays; the CNINFO website and Shenzhen Stock Exchange announcements should be treated as the ultimate sources.

4.5 Increase in Number of Shareholders and Changes in Institutional Holdings at Midyear

As of June 30, 2026, the company had 39,109 ordinary shareholders, an increase of 2,755, or approximately 7.58%, from 36,354 as of March 31, 2026. Average holdings per household declined during the same period. The 2026 semiannual report showed that controlling shareholder Yangfeng Group held approximately 620 million shares, representing 49.42%; actual controller Yang Caixue held approximately 59.30 million shares, representing 4.73%; National Social Security Fund Portfolio 102 held 3.23%, an increase of approximately 3.5639 million shares from the beginning of the period; and HKSCC held 2.07%, a decrease of approximately 4.1085 million shares from the beginning of the period. These holdings were as of June 30, 2026 and do not indicate that the same positions remained in place as of September 13, 2026.

4.6 Director and Senior Executive Increased Holdings

The THS major-events record shows that on July 1, 2026, director and senior executive Yang Huafeng acquired 126,900 shares through competitive bidding at approximately RMB 11.91 per share, representing approximately 0.01% of the tradable share capital. This information mainly comes from a third-party market-data and events database and should ultimately be verified against the company’s formal equity-change announcement or Shenzhen Stock Exchange disclosure.

4.7 No New Share Repurchase Plan or Progress Announcement Identified

As of September 13, 2026, no new share repurchase plan, repurchase-progress announcement or announcement on the cancellation of repurchased shares issued by YONFER in August or September 2026 had been identified. In the company’s 2026 semiannual report, the implementation progress of share repurchases was listed as “not applicable.” The company conducted three repurchases from 2018 to 2021, repurchasing approximately 49.7997 million shares for a cumulative amount of approximately RMB 478 million. These were historical repurchases.

4.8 Regulatory Letter and Warning Letter from Hubei CSRC

On July 17, 2026, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange disclosed a “Regulatory Letter Concerning YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. and Relevant Parties.” The company subsequently disclosed that it and relevant personnel had received a warning letter from the Hubei branch of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The matter involved insufficient support for revenue recognition in certain trading businesses, resulting in over-recognition of revenue by approximately RMB 153 million, RMB 111 million and RMB 15 million in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. Regulators determined that the financial-information disclosures for those years were inaccurate. The Hubei CSRC imposed administrative regulatory measures in the form of warning letters on the company, former chairman Yang Caixue, former president Huang Bin and CFO Yang Xiaohong, and recorded the matter in the securities and futures integrity files. This was a regulatory measure rather than an administrative penalty.

4.9 Prior-Period Accounting-Error Corrections Remain Relevant

In April 2026, the company disclosed corrections to prior-period accounting errors involving retrospective adjustments to certain data in the financial statements and notes for 2018–2024. The matter is related in part to the regulatory and warning letters issued in July 2026. Investors should continue to monitor the company’s rectification statement, subsequent regulatory measures and any new inquiry or penalty documents.

4.10 Advancement of Phosphorus-Based New-Energy Material Projects

In April 2026, the company disclosed plans to sign a project agreement with the Dongbao District People’s Government of Jingmen. The project involves planned total investment of approximately RMB 3.0 billion to construct a 300,000-tonne-per-year lithium iron phosphate production line and supporting upstream facilities including 200,000 tonnes per year of iron phosphate. The first phase is planned to involve investment of approximately RMB 800 million and construction of a 100,000-tonne-per-year lithium iron phosphate project, with commissioning planned within 18 months after obtaining construction approval. The project remained an important strategic matter in the 2026 semiannual report, but uncertainties remain regarding project approval, filing, environmental assessment, construction permits, market demand, product prices and construction timelines. The investment amount, construction schedule and capacity are planned or estimated figures and do not constitute an earnings commitment.

4.11 No Recent Major M&A Announcement Identified

As of September 13, 2026, no new announcement on a major asset acquisition, equity acquisition, asset disposal or major asset restructuring disclosed by YONFER from August to September 2026 had been identified. The most important current external-expansion initiative remains the construction of phosphorus-based new-energy material projects rather than a completed M&A transaction.

4.12 Guarantees Provided to Subsidiaries and Other Matters Disclosed

On August 18, 2026, the company disclosed announcements concerning guarantees provided to subsidiaries and other matters. Publicly available information identifies Hubei Yangfengmei New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Hubei Chuqian Fluorosilicon Materials Co., Ltd. among the guaranteed entities. Certain individual guarantee amounts included RMB 36 million, RMB 42 million, RMB 12.75 million, RMB 5.3125 million and RMB 31.875 million. Because different announcements may involve new guarantees, renewals, existing guarantees or adjustments to guarantee periods, the amounts listed on public pages cannot be directly added together. The specific guarantee balance and obligations should be determined from the company’s complete guarantee announcements and the “Major Guarantees” section of the semiannual report.

4.13 Approval of Three Hubei Provincial Science and Technology Projects

On August 23, 2026, the company disclosed that it had been approved for three Hubei provincial science and technology projects, including two Hubei science-and-technology talent service enterprise projects led by the company and one Hubei key R&D project in which it participated. The projects involve green and efficient new fertilizers, agricultural-waste resource utilization, soil improvement and improvements in the quality and yield of agricultural products. The announcement did not quantify the short-term contribution of these projects to revenue or profit.

4.14 No New Major Announcement Identified in September 2026

As of September 13, 2026, no new earnings forecast, share repurchase, major shareholder increase or reduction, M&A or major regulatory announcement disclosed by YONFER in September 2026 had been identified in the public announcement list. The latest concentrated disclosure activity occurred mainly from August 18 to August 23, 2026. Some shareholder-count and senior-executive purchase data come from third-party data platforms. Holdings changes and event labels should ultimately be verified against CNINFO, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the company’s formal announcements.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, the share price rose on high volume to RMB 14.88 on September 8 before declining for three consecutive trading sessions. The closing price had fallen below the MA5 and MA10 but remained slightly above the MA20. The pattern reflects profit-taking and consolidation after a high-volume advance rather than a clear short-term reversal. RSI14 was approximately 58 and had not entered an extreme zone; the latest daily MACD values could not be reliably verified. In terms of fund flows, major funds showed clear inflows on September 8 before turning to outflows. Major-fund net outflow was approximately RMB 18.685 million on September 11, indicating weaker short-term buying support. The share price remained above the RMB 13.5–13.9 area from late August, but the effectiveness of support around RMB 14.00 and RMB 13.75–14.00 requires further observation.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

*⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice or a definitive forecast of future prices.*

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (subjective weight relatively high, approximately 60%; a subjective judgment based on current technical and fund-flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Expected price range of approximately RMB 14.05–14.70. Triggers include stabilization near RMB 14.05–14.25, turnover value remaining around RMB 100–200 million, continued selling pressure near RMB 14.65 and no obvious one-way decline in the fertilizer or phosphorus-chemicals sectors.
• Weak downward move (subjective weight moderate; a subjective judgment based on current technical and fund-flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Expected price range of approximately RMB 13.70–14.10. If the closing price effectively breaks below RMB 14.05 while turnover expands but the price continues to decline, major funds show consecutive net outflows and the sector weakens simultaneously, the weak scenario would become more likely. A further break below RMB 13.75 could open room for a decline toward RMB 13.2–13.5.
• Stronger rebound (subjective weight low to moderate; a subjective judgment based on current technical and fund-flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Expected price range of approximately RMB 14.65–15.00. Triggers include a return above RMB 14.45–14.55, followed by a high-volume break above RMB 14.70–14.95, daily turnover materially above recent normal levels and a shift in major funds from consecutive net outflows to sustained net inflows. Only a high-volume break near RMB 14.95 followed by a sustained close above that level would clearly improve the strength of a short-term rebound; otherwise, a technical bounce within the range would be more likely.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was 1.23% and turnover value was approximately RMB 199 million, which was somewhat above recent normal levels but clearly below the approximately RMB 390 million high-volume level on September 8. Disclosed turnover values from September 4 to September 11 ranged from approximately RMB 98 million to RMB 390 million, with most daily values near RMB 100–200 million. Major-fund net outflow on September 11 was approximately RMB 18.685 million based on the combined super-large-order and large-order definition, indicating unstable fund support after the advance. Shareholder-structure data as of June 30, 2026 showed that the top 10 tradable shareholders held approximately 709 million shares, or 62.07% of tradable shares, while the top 10 shareholders held approximately 812 million shares, or approximately 64.69% of total shares. Controlling shareholder Yangfeng Group accounted for 49.18% of tradable shares. The National Social Security Fund, Bosera Growth Navigator Mixed A, insurance funds and HKSCC also held positions. A total of 180 institutions held the shares, while approximately 11.35% of the tradable float was held by 176 funds. The number of shareholders as of June 30 was 7.58% higher than on March 31, indicating lower shareholding concentration at the quarterly level. These shareholder data lagged the September 11 market by approximately two and a half months and cannot directly confirm the current real-time ownership structure. From a trading perspective, the controlling shareholder and institutions held relatively high proportions, but recent turnover and turnover value did not show sustained concentrated trading by strong funds. A price breakout still requires volume confirmation.

A measurable volume-confirmation signal would be the following: if turnover value reaches approximately RMB 250 million or more for two consecutive trading days over the coming week, the share price closes above RMB 14.65 and major funds no longer show consecutive net outflows, this could confirm stronger short-term fund support. If turnover value rises above RMB 250 million while the price still breaks below RMB 14.05, the move would be more indicative of high-volume exit activity or intensifying divergence rather than an effective upward breakout.

④ Key Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the first support area of RMB 14.05–14.25 holds and whether the strong-support area of RMB 13.75–14.00 is breached on high volume.
• Observe whether the share price can regain RMB 14.45–14.55 and then break through the RMB 14.65–14.95 resistance zone.
• Observe whether turnover value can exceed approximately RMB 250 million for two consecutive trading days and rise in tandem with the share price.
• Observe whether major funds shift from the net-outflow status on September 10 and 11 to consecutive net inflows. These are observation points only and not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices and technical-indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be affected by news, fund flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited. This analysis does not guarantee future price performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks independently.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Overview

The company’s industry covers compound fertilizers, monoammonium phosphate and phosphate fertilizers, iron phosphate, and comprehensive phosphogypsum utilization. Competition is shifting from a simple contest over capacity toward comprehensive competition in resources, costs, branding, channels, product formulations, agricultural technical services and environmental capabilities.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The compound-fertilizer industry was relatively fragmented in the past, but concentration has gradually increased in recent years. The main reasons include volatility in prices for phosphate rock, potash, sulfur and synthetic ammonia; increasingly stringent environmental and phosphogypsum-management requirements; weaker cycle resistance among small companies; and rising demand from large-scale farms and professional growers for brands, formulations and technical services.
• Leading companies reduce costs through acquisitions, geographically diversified plant construction and vertical integration. YONFER’s main advantages are scale, branding and channels. Its compound-fertilizer output and sales have ranked among the highest or first in China for many years. It has more than 1,300 marketing and agricultural-technical personnel and owns the “YONFER,” “Aotel,” “Laisinuo” and “Lekaikai” brands.
• The monoammonium-phosphate and phosphate-fertilizer industries are affected by food security, fertilizer supply assurance, phosphate-rock resource constraints and environmental policies. The “Three Phosphorus” remediation campaign, phosphogypsum management and controls on new capacity have encouraged the exit of outdated capacity, gradually concentrating supply among companies with resource, environmental and scale advantages.
• YONFER has approximately 1.95 million tonnes per year of phosphate-ammonium capacity and has ranked among the national leaders in phosphate-fertilizer production and sales for many years. However, its resource scale and total phosphate-fertilizer capacity remain materially smaller than those of ultra-large phosphorus-chemicals companies such as Yunnan Yuntianhua.
• The iron-phosphate industry is supported by demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries but has undergone concentrated capacity expansion and periods of oversupply. Competition remained intense in 2025. YONFER improved competitiveness through process optimization, lower unit costs and the launch of a second-phase production line. Fine chemicals and new-energy materials currently account for a small share of revenue and cannot yet change the company’s phosphate-fertilizer-centered business profile.

6.3 Major Competitors

YONFER’s core competitiveness lies in its compound-fertilizer scale, brand, distributor network and terminal agricultural technical services. Its supporting capabilities in phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, synthetic ammonia and phosphogypsum processing further strengthen its cost and environmental capabilities. Compared with Yunnan Yuntianhua, the company is weaker in upstream resources and integrated chemical scale. Compared with Sichuan Development Lomon and Guizhou Chanhen, its fine phosphorus-chemicals and resource-oriented businesses account for a relatively smaller share. Compared with Hubei Yihua, it has weaker nitrogen-fertilizer and basic-chemicals exposure but stronger compound-fertilizer channels. Compared with Yuntianhua? [Cloud Atlas Holdings], its compound-fertilizer brand, channels and service system are more mature. The companies above differ significantly in business scope and are suitable as comparable companies for analyzing the industrial chain and business models, but should not be compared mechanically on a single gross-margin or market-share basis.

7. Risk Factors

• Margin pressure from higher raw-material prices: Materials costs account for 86.89% of phosphate-fertilizer operating costs. Higher sulfur and other raw-material prices in the first half of 2026 reduced phosphate-fertilizer gross margin to approximately 13.63%. Because the company does not have full pricing power over phosphate rock, potash, sulfur and synthetic ammonia, higher raw-material costs may not be fully passed on to downstream customers.
• Limited phosphate-rock self-sufficiency and uncertainty in the data caliber: The company’s annual report discloses phosphate-rock capacity of approximately 900,000 tonnes per year but does not provide directly verifiable listed-company-caliber phosphate-rock reserves. This cannot establish that the company is fully self-sufficient in phosphate rock. Insufficient upstream resource security may leave the company exposed to fluctuations in phosphate-rock prices and supply.
• Concentration in the core phosphate-fertilizer business: Phosphate-fertilizer revenue accounted for 94.45% of operating revenue in 2025, while fine chemicals and new-energy materials accounted for only 2.88%. If phosphate-fertilizer or compound-fertilizer prices or sales are affected by raw materials, agricultural demand, inventory cycles and industry competition, the company’s overall revenue and profit will remain materially affected.
• Pressure on the transmission of earnings and cash flow: Revenue increased 20.03% year on year in the first half of 2026, but attributable net profit increased only 1.01% and net cash flow from operating activities declined 53.51%. If revenue growth continues to rely on scale expansion without simultaneous improvement in gross margin and cash collections, earnings quality may come under pressure.
• High inventory levels create impairment and capital risks: At the end of 2025, inventories were RMB 4.552 billion, accounting for 22.15% of total assets, with inventory turnover days of approximately 99.69 days. Seasonality in fertilizer sales, raw-material price volatility and mismatches between production and sales could increase capital tied up in inventory and create pressure from inventory write-downs.
• Construction and commercialization risks for new-energy material projects: The company plans to invest approximately RMB 3.0 billion to construct a 300,000-tonne-per-year lithium iron phosphate line and supporting 200,000-tonne-per-year iron-phosphate facilities, with planned first-phase investment of approximately RMB 800 million. The projects still face uncertainties involving approval, environmental assessment, construction permits, construction schedules, product prices, market demand and industry competition. The investment amount and capacity do not constitute earnings commitments.
• Financial-disclosure and governance-rectification risks: The company and relevant personnel received a Shenzhen Stock Exchange regulatory letter and a warning letter from the Hubei CSRC because supporting evidence for revenue recognition in certain trading businesses was insufficient, involving revenue-recognition issues from 2018 to 2020. The company also previously disclosed corrections to prior-period accounting errors involving financial statements and notes for 2018–2024. Subsequent rectification, regulatory measures and new inquiries remain areas to monitor.
• Contingent liabilities from external guarantees: The company has disclosed guarantees for subsidiaries including Hubei Yangfengmei New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Hubei Chuqian Fluorosilicon Materials Co., Ltd. Public information lists multiple guarantees, some of which may involve new guarantees, renewals or adjustments to existing guarantees. Specific balances and liability scopes should be determined from the complete guarantee announcements and semiannual report disclosures.
• Unstable short-term trading support: The share price declined for several sessions after rising on high volume on September 8. The September 11 closing price was below the MA5 and MA10, while major-fund net outflow was approximately RMB 18.685 million based on the combined super-large-order and large-order definition. If the share price effectively breaks below RMB 14.05 and the RMB 13.75–14.00 support zone, short-term volatility and downside pressure could increase.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company’s medium-term growth drivers are mainly the expansion of phosphate-fertilizer sales, a higher contribution from new-type and specialty fertilizers, its brand, channel and agricultural-technical-service advantages, and the ability of supporting facilities for phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, synthetic ammonia and phosphogypsum processing to mitigate cost and environmental constraints. The materially higher gross margin of new-type compound fertilizers versus conventional products indicates that product-mix upgrades are already contributing directly to profitability. Overseas revenue grew rapidly in 2025 but still accounted for a relatively small share, while domestic agricultural-input channels and planting demand remain the core foundation.

Looking ahead, institutional samples forecast 2026 attributable net profit of approximately RMB 1.712 billion, with simple-average institutional forecasts for 2027 and 2028 of approximately RMB 2.024 billion and RMB 2.294 billion, respectively. However, profit growth in the first half of 2026 was materially below revenue growth, and forecast realization will depend on sulfur and other raw-material prices, phosphate-fertilizer and compound-fertilizer gross margins, product-mix improvement and progress on new-energy material projects. If the lithium iron phosphate and supporting projects proceed successfully, they could expand the company’s phosphorus-based new-energy materials business. However, the projects remain in the planning and construction phase, and their short-term earnings contribution cannot yet be determined.

The company currently needs to demonstrate improvements in earnings quality, cash flow, raw-material cost pass-through and governance rectification simultaneously. Technically, RMB 14.05–14.25 corresponds to near-term support, while RMB 14.65–14.95 is the recent resistance zone. Whether price and volume can improve in tandem remains to be seen. The fundamental and technical information above reflects the company’s operating and market-trading conditions and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation.

Data Sources

• About Us—YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd.
• YONFER (000902)_Company Announcements_YONFER: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER: 2025 Annual Report_Stock Channel_Securities Star
• Yunnan Yuntianhua (600096)_Company Announcements_Yunnan Yuntianhua: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Hubei Yihua (000422)_Company Announcements_Hubei Yihua: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Sichuan Development Lomon (002312)_Company Announcements_Sichuan Development Lomon: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Guizhou Chanhen (002895)_Company Announcements_Guizhou Chanhen: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Competition in China’s Phosphorus-Chemicals Industry: Yunnan Yuntianhua in the First Tier, Xingfa Group and Hubei Yihua in the Second Tier_China Research Report Network
• YONFER (000902)_Company Announcements_YONFER: 2026 Semiannual Report Summary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. 2026 Semiannual Report—Full Text
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-18/1225478152.PDF
• YONFER (000902): Gross margin slightly declined due to raw-material prices; new capacity layout supports future growth_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER (000902)_Company Announcements_YONFER: 2025 Annual Report Summary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER: 2025 Net Profit of RMB 1.612 Billion, Up 22.61%; Proposed Cash Dividend of RMB 2 per 10 Shares_Eastmoney
• YONFER (000902) Earnings Forecast_F10_THS Financial Services
• YONFER (000902) Earnings Forecast_F10_THS Financial Services
• Earnings Forecast
• YONFER (000902) Tracking Report: 2025 Attributable Net Profit Increased 22.6%; Deepening Vertical Integration Strategy Across the Industrial Chain_Company Research_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER (000902): Results in Line with Expectations; Compound-Fertilizer Profitability Remains Relatively Stable_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER (000902)_Stock Quote, Quote Homepage_CFi.cn
• YONFER (000902) P/E | Valuation | Fundamentals—Lixinger
• YONFER (000902) Company Announcements_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER: First-Half 2026 Net Profit Increased 1.01%; Proposed Cash Dividend of RMB 1 per 10 Shares_Eastmoney
• YONFER (000902)_Company Announcements_YONFER: August 18, 2026 Investor Relations Activity Record_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Stock Code: 000902  Stock Abbreviation: YONFER  No.: 2026-047
• YONFER (000902) Major Company Events_F10_THS Financial Services
• YONFER (000902)_Company Announcements_YONFER: 2026 Semiannual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Regulatory Letter Concerning YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. and Relevant Parties | China Investor Network
• YONFER (000902.SZ) and Relevant Parties Receive Warning Letter from Hubei CSRC—Zhitong Finance
• Stock Code: 000902  Stock Abbreviation: YONFER  No.: 2026-025
• Stock Code: 000902  Stock Abbreviation: YONFER  No.: 2026-023
• YONFER (000902) External Guarantees_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Another Breakthrough in Technological Innovation! YONFER Approved for Three Provincial Science and Technology Projects_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• YONFER (000902)_Stock Quote, Quote Homepage_CFi.cn
• YONFER Agricultural Technology Co Ltd (000902) Historical Prices—Investing.com
• YONFER Agricultural Technology Co Ltd (000902) Historical Prices—Investing.com
• Citic Bank International
• YONFER (000902.SZ)—Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Detailed Quote
• YONFER (000902)_Fund Flows_Securities Star
• YONFER (000902) Shareholder Research_F10_THS Financial Services

This report was automatically researched, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available sources. Information is current as of the September 11, 2026 close; market data, technical indicators and fund-flow data are based on that closing date, while shareholder-structure data are as of June 30, 2026 and therefore subject to a quarterly lag. Information may differ in timeliness, and specific data should be verified against the company’s formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks independently.