Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. (Shenhuo) (000933)

Equity Research Report | Industry: Integrated coal, power and aluminum / electrolytic aluminum and coal | Report date: September 13, 2026 | The research notes do not provide a single clearly defined price-data cutoff date; the latest identifiable market information consists of a report dated September 11 showing net selling by major funds of RMB 61.0664 million, a market-data page showing a price of RMB 27.15 and a change of -1.00 (-3.55%), and another source showing a price of RMB 28.91 and a change of +1.43 (+5.20%). The notes do not clearly match each price to a specific date, and the cutoff date for the price and market data therefore cannot be determined.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Shenhuo’s performance improved significantly in the first half of 2026: revenue reached RMB 24.791 billion, up 21.35% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 4.781 billion, up 151.06%, with first-half profit already exceeding the RMB 4.005 billion recorded for full-year 2025; recurring net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 4.785 billion, while net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 7.200 billion, up 62.29%. Profit growth was mainly driven by higher selling prices for electrolytic aluminum and coal products and lower alumina costs. The H1 gross margin of electrolytic aluminum rose to 45.33%, while that of coal rose to 23.68%.

The company’s core businesses remain electrolytic aluminum and coal. In 2025, electrolytic aluminum generated revenue of RMB 28.979 billion, accounting for 70.27% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 30.06%; coal generated revenue of RMB 5.596 billion, accounting for 13.57%, with a gross margin of 7.61%. Although revenue rose 7.47% year on year to RMB 41.241 billion in 2025, net profit attributable to shareholders fell 7.00%. Profit was also pressured by impairment provisions exceeding RMB 1.25 billion for certain coal mines, highlighting the sensitivity of earnings to changes in aluminum and coal prices, costs and asset quality.

The company is advancing a restricted share incentive plan, under which no more than 15.42 million shares are proposed to be granted. The plan has received in-principle approval from the Shangqiu State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and the relevant proposals will be considered at the extraordinary general meeting on September 23, 2026. Meanwhile, the proposed spin-off listing of Shenhuo New Materials continues to advance, and the company has injected RMB 1.000 billion in cash into the subsidiary. These developments could strengthen expectations for the aluminum-processing business and operating incentives, but uncertainty remains over whether the incentive plan will ultimately be approved and whether the spin-off listing will proceed smoothly.

Valuation data differ by reference date: at the August 10, 2026 closing price of RMB 27.34, market data implied a P/E of approximately 8.79x and a forward P/E of approximately 7.09x. In July 2026, mainstream institutional forecasts for full-year net profit attributable to shareholders were generally concentrated between RMB 8.2 billion and RMB 8.6 billion, while the forecast range across institutions was RMB 5.856 billion to RMB 10.776 billion, indicating substantial dispersion. From a technical perspective, the available materials do not provide moving averages, MACD, KDJ, RSI, Bollinger Bands or a unified price cutoff date. In addition, after multiple instances of net inflows from September 3 to 10, major funds recorded net selling of RMB 61.0664 million on September 11, making it difficult to reach a complete conclusion on the short-term trend based on the available information.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Principal Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Electrolytic aluminum (core business): Main products are molten aluminum and aluminum ingots, used in construction, power, transportation and other sectors; 2025 revenue was RMB 28.979 billion, accounting for 70.27%, with a gross margin of 30.06%; the “Rugu” brand has been registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange (99.70 specification), while the “Huajing” brand is undergoing registration with the Shanghai Futures Exchange
• Coal: Main products are anthracite and lean coal, characterized by low sulfur, low phosphorus, medium-to-low ash content and high calorific value; products include cleaned coal, lump coal and washed blended coal; applications include metallurgy (blast-furnace injection and coking-coal blending), chemicals and power generation; 2025 revenue was RMB 5.596 billion, accounting for 13.57%, with a gross margin of 7.61%
• Aluminum foil (aluminum processing): Main products are battery foil and packaging foil, used in new-energy batteries, food and pharmaceuticals; Shenhuo New Materials produces battery foil, Shanghai Aluminum Foil produces packaging foil, and Yangguang Aluminum and Yunnan New Materials produce aluminum-foil stock; 2025 aluminum-foil revenue was RMB 2.865 billion, accounting for 6.95%; aluminum-foil stock revenue was RMB 2.053 billion, accounting for 4.98%
• Other: Trading revenue was RMB 807 million, accounting for 1.96%; other revenue was RMB 940 million, accounting for 2.27%

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Source: The 2026 interim report was disclosed on 2026-07-27/28 (jiemian.com, cs.com.cn, Guojin Securities’ 2026-07-28 report, and interim-report reviews from Guohai Securities, China Galaxy Securities and China Post Securities dated 2026-07-30 to 08-01); the FY2025 annual report was disclosed on 2026-03-23 (cs.com.cn, cls.cn, finance.eastmoney.com, nbd.com.cn and Kaiyuan Securities’ 2026-03-26 report); the FY2024 annual report was disclosed on 2025-03-24 (eastmoney/cs.com.cn comparison tables and S&P Capital IQ summaries). Other 2026H1 financial indicators: recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.785 billion (+138.07%), basic EPS of RMB 2.16, net cash generated from operating activities of RMB 7.200 billion (+62.29%), gross margin of 36.17% (+16.24ppt), and an asset-liability ratio of 42.32%. The 2026H1 earnings preannouncement on 2026-07-10 forecast net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 4.8 billion (+152.04%), broadly consistent with the actual disclosed figure (source: Guotou Securities’ 2026-07-12 report). FY2025 recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.075 billion (-0.94%), basic EPS was RMB 1.81 (-6.22%), and the proposed dividend was RMB 8.00 per 10 shares (tax included). FY2024 recurring EPS was RMB 1.85. Historical net profit attributable to shareholders (RMB billion): 2022 RMB 7.571 billion → 2023 RMB 5.905 billion → 2024 RMB 4.307 billion → 2025 RMB 4.005 billion → 2026H1 RMB 4.781 billion. Historical EPS (RMB): 2022/23/24/25 = 3.39/2.65/1.93/1.81; weighted-average ROE = 57.39%/33.61%/20.77%/17.49%; net profit margin = 17.74%/15.70%/11.22%/9.71%. Net assets per share: RMB 12.76 as of 2025-12 (net assets of RMB 28.247 billion), and RMB 14.56 as of 2026-06 (net assets of RMB 32.231 billion).

Shenhuo (000933.SZ) benefited in 2026H1 from a year-on-year increase in electrolytic aluminum prices (SMM average price of approximately RMB 24,140/ton in the first half, up 14.81%), a year-on-year decline in alumina costs (Henan average price of approximately RMB 2,699/ton, down 10.31%), and a stabilization and recovery in coal prices. Revenue reached RMB 24.791 billion (+21.35%), while net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 4.781 billion (+151.06%), with first-half profit exceeding full-year 2025 profit of RMB 4.005 billion. Subsidiary breakdown for 2026H1: Xinjiang Coal & Power recorded net profit of RMB 2.643 billion (+113.94%), and Yunnan Shenhuo recorded net profit of RMB 3.087 billion (+214.06%); coal subsidiaries Xinlong and Xinglong recorded RMB 135 million (+62.52%) and RMB 107 million (+236.37%), respectively. 2026Q2 revenue was RMB 12.382 billion (+14.69% YoY, -0.21% QoQ), net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.492 billion (+108.30% YoY, +8.82% QoQ), and recurring net profit was RMB 2.514 billion (+94.07% YoY, +10.6% QoQ). FY2025 marked the second consecutive year of revenue growth without profit growth: the electrolytic-aluminum segment recorded total profit of RMB 7.988 billion (+48.66%), electrolytic-aluminum product revenue of RMB 28.979 billion (+11.49%), and a gross margin of 30.06%; mining-industry revenue was RMB 5.602 billion (-18.94%), with a gross margin of 7.70% (-53.06ppt YoY). Impairment provisions exceeding RMB 1.25 billion were recognized for Hecheng Coal Mine, Damo Ridge Coal Mine and others, weighing on full-year attributable profit.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Consensus estimates are compiled from iFinD (articles in the stock channel dated 2026-05-29, 2026-04-20 and 2026-03-26), covering 16, 15 and 8 institutions, respectively. Individual broker forecasts are from Guotou Securities (2026-07-12 and 2025-10-23), Huatai Securities (2026-07-30), Bohai Securities (2026-06-12), Kaiyuan Securities (2026-03-26), Cinda Securities (2025-12-22) and Western Securities (2025-10-22). All earnings forecasts are estimates from brokers or aggregators, not company disclosures. Key note: the dispersion of 2026 net profit forecasts is extremely wide (RMB 5.856 billion to RMB 10.776 billion), while the latest mainstream forecasts in July 2026 were concentrated at RMB 8.2–8.6 billion. Given the RMB 4.781 billion already achieved in 2026H1, the probability of exceeding RMB 8.0 billion for the full year is relatively high if second-half performance is maintained. The low-end estimate of RMB 5.856 billion from Kaiyuan Securities is an older March 2026 figure and has limited representativeness.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

According to stockanalysis.com data (“current” data as of 2026-08-10, closing price RMB 27.34): total market capitalization was approximately RMB 61.066 billion, P/E 8.79x, forward P/E 7.09x, P/B 1.89x, P/S 1.34x and EV/EBITDA 4.78x. Historical comparison: FY2025 (2025-12-31) closing price RMB 26.73, total market capitalization RMB 61.357 billion, P/E 15.32x, forward P/E 10.44x, P/B 2.17x, P/S 1.49x and EV/EBITDA 7.83x; FY2024 (2024-12-31) closing price RMB 15.97, total market capitalization RMB 38.014 billion, P/E 8.83x, forward P/E 6.89x, P/B 1.46x, P/S 0.99x and EV/EBITDA 6.78x; the 2024 dividend yield was 5.59% according to MarketScreener, which has not been cross-verified. The implied P/E (TTM) of approximately 8.8x can be cross-checked as follows: TTM attributable profit ≈ FY2025 RMB 4.005 billion − 2025H1 RMB 1.904 billion + 2026H1 RMB 4.781 billion ≈ RMB 6.88 billion; RMB 61.066 billion market capitalization ÷ RMB 6.88 billion ≈ 8.9x, broadly consistent with stockanalysis’s 8.79x. The forward P/E of 7.09x implies forward profit of approximately RMB 8.6 billion, consistent with mainstream institutional forecasts of RMB 8.2–8.6 billion in July 2026. Other reference points: the closing price was RMB 29.98 and market capitalization RMB 67.425 billion on 2026-03-23; shares outstanding were approximately 2.23–2.25 billion; the 2025 dividend proposal was RMB 8 per 10 shares (RMB 0.8 per share), implying a dividend yield of approximately 2.7%–3.0% at a share price of RMB 27–30, versus the 5.59% 2024 figure reported by MarketScreener, with the difference attributable to the share-price increase. Guotou Securities noted on 2026-07-12 that the company was valued at only 6.3x 2026 P/E, while Huatai Securities’ target price on 2026-07-30 implied approximately 7.5x 2026 P/E, indicating that institutions generally viewed the valuation as low. Uncertainty notes: (1) the latest share price has not been confirmed for September 2026; only the August 10 closing price of RMB 27.34 is available. The Investing.com target-price range implies a share price of approximately RMB 25–26 at that time, about 5% different from the August price; this is an estimate rather than a direct confirmation; (2) discrepancies in institutional target-price definitions remain unresolved: iFinD aggregate RMB 39.25 (approximately May 2026) versus approximately RMB 29.91 (approximately September 2026) versus individual broker targets of RMB 28.10–31.14; the relevant data date must be specified when using these figures; (3) the 52-week high of RMB 39.48 appears only in the single Investing.com source and has not been independently verified; it should therefore be treated cautiously; (4) overseas data aggregators use inconsistent total-profit definitions. MarketScreener reports net income of 6.08B for 2024*, substantially different from attributable profit of RMB 4.307 billion, possibly because it includes minority interests; the minority-interest line in Investing.com’s income statement also appears abnormal. Such overseas aggregated data are not relied upon; (5) market capitalization and share-count definitions differ: the nbd figure of 2.249 billion shares (RMB 67.425 billion / RMB 29.98) differs slightly from the approximately 2.213 billion shares implied by EPS, due to the difference between weighted-average shares and period-end total shares.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Interim Report: Revenue of RMB 24.791 Billion and Attributable Net Profit of RMB 4.781 Billion, Up 151.06% YoY

The company announced its 2026 interim report on the evening of 2026-07-27/2026-07-28: revenue was RMB 24.791 billion, up 21.35% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.781 billion, up 151.06%; recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.785 billion, up 138.07%; net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 7.200 billion, up 62.29%; basic EPS was RMB 2.16; and weighted-average ROE was 18.41% (+9.85ppt YoY). Q2 revenue was RMB 12.382 billion (+14.69% YoY, -0.21% QoQ), while attributable net profit was RMB 2.492 billion (+108.30% YoY, +8.82% QoQ). According to the company, growth was attributable to year-on-year increases in coal and electrolytic-aluminum selling prices and a year-on-year decline in alumina prices, a major raw material. The H1 gross margin of electrolytic aluminum was 45.33% (+20.83ppt), while that of coal was 23.68% (+11.85ppt). Sources: China Securities Journal/China Securities Intelligence Financial News, Shanghai Securities News, Guojin Securities’ 2026-07-28 report, Huatai Securities’ 2026-07-30 report, Galaxy Securities’ 2026-08-01 report and Western Securities’ 2026-08-03 report.

4.2 Pre-Interim-Report Earnings Preannouncement of Approximately RMB 4.80 Billion (Cited Only in Broker Reports; Original Announcement to Be Verified)

A Huatai Securities report dated 2026-07-30 explicitly stated that “26H1 overall results were in line with the company’s previous guidance of RMB 4.80 billion,” indicating that the company had issued an earnings preannouncement before the interim report forecasting attributable net profit of approximately RMB 4.80 billion, with significant growth. Eastmoney F9/core-theme tags also show “2026 interim earnings increase” and “2026 Q1 earnings increase.” Note: the original text of the earnings preannouncement, including its announcement number and publication date, was not directly located. The figure currently appears only in a broker report and is therefore based on a single source. It is recommended that the original announcement on the CNINFO website be checked, including the forecast range, YoY increase and announcement date.

4.3 2026Q1 Attributable Net Profit of Approximately RMB 2.3 Billion (Cited in Reports, Not Verified Against the Original Quarterly Report)

According to the reporting basis of Galaxy Securities and Guosheng Securities, 2026Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 2.3 billion, up approximately 223% year on year. A Guosheng report stated that Q1 revenue was approximately RMB 12.4 billion, up approximately 29% year on year. These figures are cited from broker reports and were not directly verified against the original quarterly report.

4.4 2026 Restricted Share Incentive Plan Approved in Draft (Announcement No. 2026-040)

The third meeting of the 10th Board of Directors on 2026-06-22 approved the “Company 2026 Restricted Share Incentive Plan (Draft)” and its summary, which were disclosed on 2026-06-23 (Announcement No. 2026-040). The plan proposes to grant no more than 15.42 million restricted shares, approximately 0.686% of total shares outstanding at the time of the draft announcement. Of this amount, 14.18 million shares would be granted initially (approximately 0.631% of total shares and 91.96% of the proposed grant), with 1.24 million shares reserved (approximately 0.055% of total shares and 8.04%).

4.5 Equity Incentive Plan Approved by the Shangqiu State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (Announcement No. 2026-047)

On 2026-08-06, the company received from its controlling shareholder, Henan Shenhuo Group, a forwarded document titled “Approval of the Shangqiu State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission on Consent for Shenhuo to Implement the 2026 Restricted Share Incentive Plan” (Shang Guo Zi [2026] No. 17). The commission gave in-principle approval. The announcement was numbered 2026-047 and disclosed on 2026-08-07.

4.6 Board Approved the Convening Plan for the Extraordinary General Meeting and Issued the Notice (Announcements Nos. 2026-048 and 2026-049)

On 2026-09-07, the fifth meeting of the 10th Board of Directors approved the “Plan for Convening the Third Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026” (Announcement No. 2026-048). On 2026-09-08, the company issued the “Notice of the Third Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026” (Announcement No. 2026-049).

4.7 Third Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026 to Be Held on September 23; Four Equity-Incentive Proposals to Be Considered

The meeting is scheduled for 15:00 on 2026-09-23, with both in-person and online voting (online voting code 360933, abbreviation “Shenhuo Voting”); the record date is 2026-09-18; the in-person venue is Yongcheng, Henan. Four proposals will be considered: ① the incentive plan and its summary; ② the incentive-plan administration rules; ③ the implementation and assessment rules; and ④ authorization for the Board to handle matters related to the equity incentive plan. All are special resolutions requiring approval by at least two-thirds of the voting rights represented at the meeting. Because they involve the interests of minority investors, votes will be counted separately; incentive recipients and related parties must abstain. As of the research date, around September 11–14, 2026, the meeting had not yet been held, and uncertainty remained over whether the equity incentive plan would ultimately be approved.

4.8 Spin-Off Listing of Shenhuo New Materials Continues to Advance; RMB 1.000 Billion Cash Capital Injection

The proposed spin-off listing of Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. continues to advance and has been under development for several years; it was mentioned in Guojin Securities’ 2026-07-28 report. The company injected RMB 1.000 billion in cash into its wholly owned subsidiary Shenhuo New Materials, of which RMB 446.9038 million was recorded as registered capital and RMB 553.0962 million as capital reserve. Registered capital increased from RMB 907.6616 million to RMB 1.3545654 billion. Previously, the company also acquired a 14.6869% stake in Shenhuo New Materials held by Shangqiu Xinfa through a public auction; the relevant “progress announcement” was issued on 2025-11-25. Source: Eastmoney Data Center’s “Mergers and Restructuring” entry.

4.9 Henan Lier New Materials Increased Capital Pro Rata; Shenhuo New Materials’ Holding Remains Unchanged at 20%

Shenhuo New Materials and Guangdong Lier New Materials jointly increased the capital of Henan Lier in proportion to their respective holdings using their own funds. The total capital increase was RMB 50 million, including RMB 10 million contributed by Shenhuo New Materials. Following completion, Henan Lier’s registered capital increased from RMB 100 million to RMB 150 million, while Shenhuo New Materials’ stake remained 20%.

4.10 Henan Shenhuo Industrial Fund Completed Business Registration, with Total Capital Contributions of RMB 15.1 Billion

Henan Shenhuo Industrial Fund, with total capital contributions of RMB 15.1 billion, completed its business registration, according to Guojin Securities’ 2026-07-28 report.

4.11 RMB 247 Million in Receivables from Huiyuan Aluminum Fully Recovered

Receivables of RMB 247 million from Huiyuan Aluminum were fully recovered, according to Guojin Securities’ 2026-07-28 report.

4.12 Jiaozuo Wanfang’s Application to Acquire Equity in Cayman Aluminum Accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (Cited in a Broker Report; Verification Pending)

Jiaozuo Wanfang’s application to acquire equity in Cayman Aluminum was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Following completion of the transaction, the company’s wholly owned subsidiary Xinjiang Shenhuo will become a shareholder of Jiaozuo Wanfang, according to Guojin Securities’ 2026-07-28 report. This item is cited from a broker report; the original announcement was not located and should be verified.

4.13 Shareholder Count: 119,000 as of 2026-08-31 (Cross-Verification Required)

As of 2026-08-31, the company had 119,000 shareholders, according to a response on the investor-relations interactive platform dated 2026-09-09. A point of concern is that Eastmoney’s Data Center showed approximately 65,000–71,700 shareholders around November 2025. An increase from approximately 70,000 to 119,000 within nine months, or approximately 66%, appears unusually large. The figure of 119,000 comes from the company’s interactive platform and is relatively credible, but should be cross-checked against the top-10 shareholder and shareholder-count disclosures in periodic reports before being relied upon.

4.14 Executive Share Sales (Historical, November–December 2025)

Liu Jingling sold 30,000 shares on 2025-12-05 and 10,000 shares on 2025-12-26; Zhang Jingjun sold 25,000 shares on 2025-11-17 and 20,000 shares on 2025-11-19, according to the Eastmoney Data Center. These were events at the end of 2025 and did not occur in the current month.

4.15 Block Trade: 130,000 Shares Traded on 2026-07-22 at RMB 23.43

A block trade of 130,000 shares was completed on 2026-07-22 at RMB 23.43 per share, for a total consideration of RMB 3.0459 million, according to the Sina Data Center.

4.16 Major-Fund Activity: Net Selling of RMB 61.0664 Million on 2026-09-11 and Net Buying of RMB 27.7903 Million on 2026-09-09

On 2026-09-11, major funds recorded net selling of RMB 61.0664 million. The closing price was RMB 27.15, down 3.55%, with a turnover rate of 2.3% and turnover of RMB 1.401 billion. On 2026-09-09, major funds recorded net buying of RMB 27.7903 million, according to Securities Star. The data dates are clearly identified as 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-11.

4.17 Margin Financing and Securities Lending; Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Eligible; Margin Collateral Conversion Ratio of 0.65

000933 is eligible for Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and margin financing and securities lending. The collateral conversion ratio is 0.65 (Class A), according to the 2026-09-09 lists from Guolian/Hualin and similar sources.

4.18 Dividends (Historical, for Reference)

For 2024, the company paid RMB 5.00 per 10 shares for the full year and RMB 3.00 per 10 shares as an interim dividend, for cumulative cash dividends of approximately RMB 1.8 billion, equivalent to 41.78% of 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders (Shanghai Securities News annual-report summary dated 2025-03-25). For 2025, the dividend was approximately RMB 0.80 per share (etnet company data as of 2025-12-31, unadjusted basis).

4.19 Industry Policy: Growth-Stabilization Plans for Ten Key Industries, Including Nonferrous Metals, and Intensified “Anti-Involution” Policies

The government is advancing a new round of growth-stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel and nonferrous metals, while “anti-involution” policies are being intensified. The company’s interim report and operating review mentioned high electrolytic-aluminum prices and expectations for a stabilization and recovery in coal prices (Tonghuashun F10 operating review and Shanghai Securities News, 2026-07-27). No negative regulatory information specifically concerning Shenhuo, such as regulatory penalties, inquiry letters or investigations, was identified. The above are industry-level policies rather than company-specific regulatory events.

4.20 2026Q3 Earnings Preannouncement: Not Located

No earnings preannouncement or first-three-quarter earnings preannouncement for 2026Q3 was located in this review. None is currently available; third-quarter reports are normally disclosed in late October.

5. Share-Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

The research notes cover Shenhuo’s (000933.SZ) price, major-fund flows and shareholder count, but contain two major deficiencies. First, the price data are inconsistent across sources, with both RMB 27.15 and RMB 28.91 appearing, and the exact date associated with each figure is not identified; a unified price benchmark therefore cannot be established. Second, core technical indicators—moving averages, MACD, KDJ, RSI and Bollinger Bands—as well as turnover rate, turnover ranges and the structure of the top 10 tradable shareholders are not provided. From a fund-flow perspective, major funds recorded net inflows on September 3, 9 and 10, but shifted to net selling of RMB 61.0664 million on September 11. The shareholder count was 80,200 as of 2026-04-20, up 4.97% from the previous period, but this data point is relatively old and the notes provide no further interpretation. Based on the available information, this section can only organize the known facts on fund flows and shareholder count; a complete assessment of the technical pattern is not possible. Missing fields are identified as data unavailable.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on limited information in the research notes. Key price levels cannot be reliably calculated because the notes lack specific values for moving averages, Bollinger Bands and recent trading-range highs and lows. Scenario weights are subjective judgments, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute investment advice.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (medium weight (subjective judgment, not a statistical probability)): If the share price remains within a narrow range around current levels and major-fund outflows and inflows alternate, as in the alternating net inflows from September 3 to 10 and net selling on September 11, the stock may enter a consolidation pattern. Trigger conditions would include a lack of new industry or company catalysts and no significant change in trading volume. A specific price range cannot be provided because the notes lack moving-average and Bollinger-Band data.
• Moderately weak decline (medium-to-low weight (subjective judgment, not a statistical probability)): If major funds continue the net-selling direction seen on September 11, with the amount remaining relatively large, and the coal or electrolytic-aluminum sectors weaken broadly, the stock could test support on the downside. The notes do not provide a quantifiable support level, so no specific downside target range can be given; investors can only monitor whether fund outflows persist.
• Stronger rebound (low weight (subjective judgment, not a statistical probability)): If major funds return to net buying on a scale larger than previously observed, using the RMB 54.8764 million net buying on September 3 as a reference, and turnover expands, the stock could rebound. A catalyst at the industry or company level would be a potential trigger. The notes do not provide an upper resistance level, so no specific rebound target range can be given.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

The research notes contain only one turnover data point: turnover of RMB 406 million on an unspecified day, sourced from a Sina Finance page headline. No date is provided, and turnover-rate data are unavailable. Data on the top 10 tradable shareholders and institutional holdings, including public funds, social security funds and QFII, appear only as source links without specific shareholder names or ownership percentages. Shareholder concentration and institutional participation therefore cannot be assessed. The shareholder count was 80,200 as of 2026-04-20, up 4.97% from 76,400 on 2026-04-10; however, this data is relatively old, and the shareholder structure may have changed since then. Given the lack of turnover-rate and turnover-range data and the absence of a clear shareholder structure, order-book depth and slippage in large transactions cannot be evaluated.

Recent normal ranges for turnover and turnover rate must be provided before specific thresholds for volume expansion can be established. Because the research notes do not provide such ranges, no verifiable volume-confirmation signal can currently be given.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Monitor whether major-fund flows remain in the net-selling state seen on September 11 or return to the net-inflow state observed from September 3 to 10 (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).
• Monitor whether turnover and turnover-rate data become available to determine whether trading activity has changed (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).
• Monitor subsequent updates to the shareholder count, which was 80,200 as of 2026-04-20, up 4.97% from the previous period; this data point is relatively old (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).
• Once the dates corresponding to the two source prices, RMB 27.15 and RMB 28.91, are clarified, monitor the position of the actual price (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).

The above scenario analysis is based on closing data, fund flows and shareholder counts available as of the relevant dates in the research notes. Because the notes do not provide key values such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, trading-range highs and lows or turnover rate, some items cannot be calculated and have been identified as data unavailable. Short-term share prices may also be affected by news flow, fund flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators themselves have lagging effects and limitations. This analysis does not guarantee future price performance and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Factors

• Electrolytic aluminum accounted for 70.27% of 2025 revenue, making earnings highly sensitive to aluminum prices. If aluminum prices retreat, the profit increase generated by higher prices in 2026H1 may narrow.
• Coal revenue fell 18.94% year on year in 2025, while the mining-industry gross margin declined to 7.70%. Impairment provisions exceeding RMB 1.25 billion were recognized for Hecheng Coal Mine, Damo Ridge Coal Mine and others. Further deterioration in the profitability or asset quality of these mines could again weigh on earnings.
• Part of the improvement in 2026H1 performance came from lower alumina costs. If alumina prices rebound or energy and other raw-material costs rise, the 45.33% H1 gross margin of electrolytic aluminum could come under pressure.
• The company’s performance is highly cyclical. Net profit attributable to shareholders declined from RMB 7.571 billion in 2022 to RMB 4.005 billion in 2025. Even with strong growth in 2026H1, renewed earnings volatility cannot be ruled out if aluminum and coal prices decline.
• Although the 2026 restricted share incentive plan received in-principle approval from the Shangqiu State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, it still requires consideration by the extraordinary general meeting on September 23, 2026. Uncertainty remains over its final approval and implementation; if it fails to pass, the associated incentive expectations may not materialize.
• The spin-off listing of Shenhuo New Materials remains in progress. Although the company has injected RMB 1.000 billion in cash, it remains uncertain whether the spin-off will be completed smoothly and what its actual contribution to corporate value and the aluminum-foil business will be.
• Institutional earnings forecasts for 2026 range from RMB 5.856 billion to RMB 10.776 billion, a substantial difference that indicates significant market disagreement over aluminum and coal prices, costs and earnings sustainability. Actual results may deviate from mainstream forecasts.
• Available technical data lack a unified price cutoff date, moving averages and momentum indicators. Major funds also shifted to net selling of RMB 61.0664 million on September 11. If outflows continue, short-term share-price volatility could increase, but current data are insufficient to quantify support and resistance levels.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company’s growth thesis is primarily reflected in the synchronized profitability of electrolytic aluminum and coal: in 2026H1, higher aluminum and coal prices and lower alumina costs drove simultaneous improvement in revenue, gross margin, net profit and operating cash flow. Xinjiang Coal & Power and Yunnan Shenhuo recorded first-half net profits of RMB 2.643 billion and RMB 3.087 billion, respectively, becoming important sources of earnings growth. If aluminum and coal prices and raw-material costs remain favorable, full-year 2026 earnings could recover significantly from 2025 levels. Mainstream institutional forecasts also point to net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 8.2–8.6 billion.

Over the medium to long term, the company has a business portfolio spanning electrolytic aluminum, coal and aluminum-foil processing. The capital injection into Shenhuo New Materials, progress toward a spin-off listing and the restricted share incentive plan are potential operating catalysts. However, earnings remain distinctly cyclical. 2025 marked the second consecutive year of revenue growth without profit growth, while coal-mine impairments materially weighed on earnings. Going forward, key factors to monitor include aluminum and coal prices, alumina costs, coal-mine asset quality, the ramp-up of aluminum-foil projects, and the actual progress of the equity incentive plan and spin-off listing.

Current assessments of the company’s earnings and valuation are also affected by differences in data dates and forecasts. Price information includes both RMB 27.15 and RMB 28.91, neither of which has been matched to a unified date. Institutional earnings forecasts are widely dispersed, and technical data are incomplete. Accordingly, assessments of the company’s future performance should rely more heavily on subsequent periodic reports to verify profit, cash flow, production and sales, and costs, rather than on a single period of strong growth or an individual institutional forecast.

Data Sources

• Shenhuo (000933.SZ) In-Depth F9-PC_HSF9 Data
• Shenhuo (000933)_Company Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Charts_News_Research Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd Class A (000933) - Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd Class A 000933
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd: Executive Shareholders and Company Profile | 000933 | CNE000001097 | Zonebourse - d4146d5b77e9bab4e7b9a92107.GcCXK6p7gHkw4cT9aOM4mBMHM9Jx410Bhq2pAhHbag4.arjzZuZLtCgBubCqHblA3X5YfpowtRlU3MKfeyisG21e8N5_kiHJEQDYp...
• Shenhuo (000933) September 11 Major-Fund Net Selling of RMB 61.0664 Million - Securities Star
• Shenhuo: Yunnan’s Power Structure Is Mainly Hydroelectric - Securities Star
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd (000933) Company Information - Simply Wall St - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
• Shenhuo (000933) September 10 Major-Fund Net Buying of RMB 19.5407 Million - Securities Star
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd (000933) Company Information - Simply Wall St - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
• 000933.CN | Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co. Ltd. Company Profile & Executives
• SZ.000933 Shenhuo - A-Share Real-Time Quote - Company Information
• Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd.
• Shenhuo (000933) Operating Analysis - Tonghuashun Finance
• Shenhuo (000933)_Company Announcement_2025 Interim Report - Sina Finance
• Securities Daily - Summary of the 2024 Annual Report of Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. - Stock Code: 000933; Stock Abbreviation: Shenhuo; Announcement No. 2025-012
• Summary of the 2025 Annual Report of Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. - Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd.
• Summary of the 2024 Annual Report of Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. - 2025
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ) Core Themes - PC_HSF10 Data
• 000933 Shenhuo - Principal Business Scope
• Shenhuo (000933) - Historical Top-Five Customer Structure and Share of Total Revenue
• Shenhuo (000933)_Company Announcement_2017 Annual Report - Sina Finance
• Shenhuo: 2021 Net Profit Increased 802.57%; Proposed Dividend of RMB 4.5 per 10 Shares
• Fortune China 500 Rank 364 | Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. (000933.SZ)
• Shenhuo: 2022 Annual Report - Information on the Top Five Customers
• Yudean Energy (002128)_Company Announcement_Review Inquiry Letter Response
• Shenhuo (000933)_Company Announcement_2017 Annual Report - Sina Finance
• Shenhuo: 2025 Annual Report
• Shenhuo (000933) Principal Business Analysis | Chaguwang
• Shenhuo: 2025 Annual Report - Tonghuashun
• Shenhuo Financial Report Summary
• Shenhuo (000933) - Product Mix
• Shenhuo: Profits Return to Highs, with a Different Asset Base
• Shenhuo: Profits Return to Highs, with a Different Asset Base
• - Shenhuo (000933) - Financial Evaluation
• Shenhuo (000933) Financial Indicator Analysis
• Shenhuo (000933) Income Statement
• CMB Wing Lung Bank
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ) - Quick Quote
• Shenhuo (000933) F10 - CFi
• Jiaozuo Wanfang: Huatai United Securities Review of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Inquiry Letter
• Hongqiao Holdings - Analysis of Electrolytic Aluminum Production Costs
• Jiaozuo Wanfang: China Enterprise Appraisal Review
• Raw-Material Procurement
• Hongqiao Holdings: Inquiry Letter Response
• Hongqiao Holdings: Inquiry Letter Response
• Hongqiao Holdings: Inquiry Letter Response
• Significant Cost Declines and Continued Improvement in Electrolytic-Aluminum Profitability
• Domestic Electrolytic-Aluminum Industry Profitability
• Electrolytic-Aluminum Price Cycle and Cost-Profit Analysis
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. (SHE:000933) Company Profile and Description
• Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd (SZSE:000933) Share Price - Morningstar
• 000933 Stock Price and Chart — SZSE:000933 — TradingView
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd: Top Investment Funds
• Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd.: Shareholders, Executives and Company Profile
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd Reports FY2024 Results
• Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd Income Statement
• 000933 - Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd (SZSE) Stock - Earnings History
• SHENHUO (000933.SZ) - Quick Quote
• Shenhuo (000933) Market Data and Chart
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd Share Price
• SHENHUO (000933.SZ)
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd Share Price
• Qianhai Kaiyuan Ruiyuan Stable Income Mixed C
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Financial Ratios
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ): 2026 Interim-Report Net Profit of RMB 4.781 Billion, Up 151.06% YoY
• Shenhuo (000933): Significant Profit Growth Driven by Coal and Aluminum
• Shenhuo: 2025 Net Profit of RMB 4.005 Billion; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ): 2025 Net Profit Down 7%; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ): 2025 Net Profit Down 7%; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo: 2025 Net Profit Down 7%; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo: 2025 Net Profit of RMB 4.005 Billion; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo: 2025 Net Profit of RMB 4.005 Billion; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo: 2025 Net Profit of RMB 4.005 Billion; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ): 2025 Net Profit Down 7%; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Shenhuo Reports Second Consecutive Year of Revenue Growth Without Profit Growth
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ): 2025 Net Profit Down 7%; Proposed Dividend of RMB 8 per 10 Shares
• Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. Board Resolution
• China Securities Journal - Board Resolution of Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd.
• Shenhuo
• Shenhuo Announcement on Approval of the 2026 Restricted Share Incentive Plan
• Shenhuo (000933)
• Shenhuo: Board Resolution
• Shenhuo: Extraordinary General Meeting to Be Held on September 23, 2026
• Shenhuo (000933): Board Resolution
• 000933 Shenhuo
• Shenhuo RMB 27.15 -1.00 (-3.55%) Latest Price and Chart
• Shenhuo: Shareholder Count of 119,000 as of August 31
• Investor Query on Q3 Coal and Electrolytic-Aluminum Market Prices
• Shenhuo (000933) September 9 Major-Fund Net Buying of RMB 27.7903 Million
• Investor Query on Latest Shareholder Count
• Investor Query on Yunnan Electrolytic-Aluminum Power Costs
• Shenzhen-Listed Securities Eligible as Collateral
• Block Trades - Data Center
• Shenhuo (000933): Electrolytic Aluminum and Coal Driving Both Growth and Quality
• Shenhuo (000933): Higher Aluminum and Coal Prices Drive Strong 2026H1 Results
• Shenhuo (000933): Strong 2026H1 Results Driven by Aluminum and Coal
• Profitability Leverage in Coal and Aluminum Released
• Shenhuo’s H1 Net Profit Increased 151% to RMB 4.781 Billion
• Shenhuo: Notice of the Third Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026
• Shenhuo
• Shenhuo: Board Resolution
• Shenhuo: Notice of the Third Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026
• Shenhuo: Notice of the Third Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026
• Shenhuo: Board Resolution
• China Shareholder Meeting Notice - Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. - September 23, 2026
• Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Corporation Limited: Shareholders, Executives and Company Profile
• Shenhuo: Yunnan’s Power Structure Is Mainly Hydroelectric
• CSI Pharmaceuticals 7557.21 -119.80 (-1.56%) Latest Price and Chart
• CSI Pharmaceuticals (000933) Market Data and Chart
• Shenhuo (000933) Market Data and Chart
• Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd (000933) Chart - Investing.com
• Download 000933 Data | Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co. Ltd. Price Data
• 000933 | Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd Share Price - Investing.com
• Shenhuo Stock Data and Information
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ)
• Shenhuo RMB 28.91 +1.43 (+5.20%) Latest Price and Chart
• Shenhuo (000933) Company Overview
• Shenhuo (000933)
• 000933 Shenhuo
• Shenhuo (SZ000933) - Holdings
• Shenhuo (SZ:000933)
• Shenhuo (000933) Fund Flows - Data Center
• Shenhuo Gains 2.00%, Turnover RMB 406 Million, Major-Fund Net Inflow RMB 12.2329 Million
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ)
• Shenhuo (000933) Market Data and Chart
• Shenhuo (000933) September 3 Major-Fund Net Buying of RMB 54.8764 Million
• Shenhuo - Tradable Shareholders
• Shenhuo Shareholder Count
• Top 10 Shareholders of Shenhuo
• Shenhuo Shareholder Count Changes
• Shenhuo (SZ000933): Shareholder Count of 80,200 as of 2026-04-20
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ): 2024 Interim-Report Net Profit of RMB 2.284 Billion
• Shenhuo (000933) Shareholders and Share Capital
• Shenhuo (000933.SZ): Q1 2024 Net Profit of RMB 1.091 Billion
• Shenhuo (000933) Tradable Shareholders
• Shenhuo (000933)

This report was automatically researched, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available sources. Information is current through the research notes’ stated cutoff: the research notes do not provide a single clearly defined price-data cutoff date; the latest identifiable market information consists of a report dated September 11 showing net selling by major funds of RMB 61.0664 million, a market-data page showing a price of RMB 27.15 and a change of -1.00 (-3.55%), and another source showing a price of RMB 28.91 and a change of +1.43 (+5.20%). The notes do not clearly match each price to a specific date, and the cutoff date for the price and market data therefore cannot be determined. Timing differences may exist. Please refer to the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals for specific figures. This report is for information and research reference only, does not constitute investment advice of any kind, and investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.