Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Co., Ltd. (002068)

Equity Research Report | Industry: Basic Chemicals—Rubber—Carbon Black | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the close on September 11, 2026; September 13, 2026 is a Sunday, and September 11 is the most recent complete trading day

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Black Cat Carbon Black's latest operating performance remains in a stage of "slight revenue recovery, profit not yet turned around": in the first half of 2026, it achieved operating revenue of RMB 4.425 billion, up 3.01% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of RMB 106 million, a year-on-year reduction in loss of 7.46%; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was a loss of RMB 112 million; net cash flow from operating activities turned positive to RMB 63 million. The company's 2025 operating revenue fell to RMB 8.685 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of RMB 463 million, a significant deterioration from the profit of RMB 25.13 million in 2024, and profitability has not yet recovered.

The company's core business remains carbon black. In 2024, carbon black revenue was RMB 8.486 billion, accounting for 83.75% of operating revenue; designed capacity was 1.162 million tons/year, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.61%; in the first half of 2026, carbon black revenue was RMB 3.186 billion, down 2.33% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 4.40%. The company's large-scale production, tar refining, tail gas power generation, and energy recycling form the basis for cost synergies, but raw materials account for a high proportion of costs and product homogenization is relatively high, so profitability is highly dependent on the spread between coal tar prices and carbon black selling prices.

The growth logic mainly comes from the repair of traditional carbon black spreads, growth in overseas revenue, upgrading of conductive carbon black and specialty carbon black products, and capacity release from carbon-based new materials projects. In the first half of 2026, overseas revenue grew 25.19% year-on-year, but the company's explicit price increase for carbon black products is clearly cost pass-through and does not necessarily bring about synchronous profit growth; customer certification, ramp-up speed, and profit contribution of conductive carbon black, wet-process masterbatch, and other new materials projects still need to be verified.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price closed at RMB 9.68, with a price-to-book ratio of approximately 2.88x. Because trailing net profit is negative, the price-to-earnings ratio does not have normal valuation significance. The share price is still above MA5, MA10, and MA20, but after consecutive increases it fell 6.02% on increased volume, with a turnover rate of 14.62%, and the technical picture shows both a still-strong trend and short-term disagreement at high levels. Institutional forecasts for 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders range from RMB 106 million to RMB 180 million, and there is a high requirement for realization between earnings expectations and the reality that the company is still loss-making.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Carbon black: core business, mainly using wet-process granulation technology, including rubber carbon black, pigment carbon black, conductive carbon black, and specialty carbon black, mainly used in tires and rubber products, and extending into fields such as cable shielding materials, plastics, batteries, antistatic materials, and electronic components. 2024 revenue was RMB 8.486 billion, accounting for 83.75% of operating revenue.
• Tar refining products: deep processing of raw materials such as coal tar, carbon black oil, and anthracene oil to produce industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil, light oil, modified pitch, crude phenol, and other products; some products are internally reused in carbon black production. 2024 revenue was RMB 1.079 billion, accounting for 10.65%.
• Silica: production of precipitated silica, mainly for applications such as rubber and tires. 2024 revenue was RMB 191 million, accounting for 1.88%.
• Carbon-based new materials and specialty carbon black: layout in superconducting carbon black, conductive agents and new energy battery materials, carbon nanotubes, carbon material/rubber composite masterbatch, high-pigment carbon black, low-hysteresis carbon black, and fine chemical products downstream of coal tar. Related projects are still in the promotion stage and capacity release remains to be verified.
• Other businesses: 2024 revenue was RMB 376 million, accounting for 3.71%.
• 2024 production and sales of main products: carbon black output 1.0413 million tons, sales volume 1.0437 million tons, production-to-sales ratio 100.22%; tar refining products output 749,900 tons, sales volume 291,900 tons; silica output 35,300 tons, sales volume 33,700 tons. The relatively low sales volume of tar refining products was mainly because some products were internally used in carbon black production.

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

Black Cat Carbon Black is located in the middle reaches of the coal coking by-product deep processing and rubber materials industry chain. Its core model is to use coal tar, carbon black oil, anthracene oil, ethylene tar, and other materials as raw materials to produce carbon black, and to improve overall cost efficiency through tar refining, tail gas power generation, and energy recycling. The company is currently still a midstream materials enterprise characterized by scale, low gross margin, and relatively strong cyclicality.

• The main raw materials for carbon black include coal tar, carbon black oil, anthracene oil, and ethylene tar, mainly by-products from coking and coal chemical processes; raw material supply and prices are affected by the prosperity of the coking coal, coke, steel, and coking industries.
• In 2024, raw materials in the chemical business accounted for 80.17% of operating costs; among them, carbon black was 81.89%, tar refining products were 96.03%, and silica was 40.27%, making the company overall a raw-material-cost-driven chemical enterprise.
• The company has limited overall pricing power over bulk raw materials such as coal tar and is more of a price taker; it reduces unit manufacturing costs through long-term supplier relationships, low-cost oil product development, tar refining synergies, tail gas power generation, and waste heat utilization.
• The 2024 annual report's main raw materials table anonymizes specific varieties as "Raw Material A" and "Raw Material B," and their correspondence to specific oil products cannot be confirmed solely from that table; the range of feed oils specified in other sections of the company's report includes coal tar, anthracene oil, ethylene tar, and carbon black oil.
• Supplier concentration: the research notes do not provide verifiable total proportions for the top five suppliers; the names of major suppliers are anonymized in the annual report webpage text, and the specific supplier structure should be based on the original PDF of the formal annual report.
• Downstream customers are mainly large domestic and international tire and rubber products enterprises, and carbon black products are used in tire tread compounds, carcass compounds, and industrial rubber products; the company has become a supplier to some international tire enterprises.
• In 2024, the total sales amount of the top five customers was RMB 1.435 billion, accounting for 14.16% of annual total sales; the largest single customer accounted for 4.53% of sales. Based on the disclosed data, customer concentration is not high, and there is temporarily no severe dependence on a single customer.
• The above customer concentration data are based on the 2024 annual report; the annual report webpage text anonymizes customer names as "Customer 1" to "Customer 5," so concentration can be confirmed, but the specific customer names cannot be cross-verified from that page, and the customer structure should be based on the original PDF of the formal annual report.
• Carbon black is relatively standardized, and tire enterprises are large in scale with large procurement volumes, usually with strong purchasing and bargaining power; carbon black enterprises need to maintain customer relationships through quality certification, stable supply, technical service, and global supporting capabilities.
• In the short term, it is difficult to fully pass on increases in coal tar prices to tire customers, and there is a lag in transmission between product prices and raw material prices, so the company's profit is relatively sensitive to the spread between carbon black selling prices and raw material prices.
• As of December 31, 2024, the company's accounts receivable were RMB 1.838 billion, approximately 18.14% of 2024 operating revenue; receivables financing was RMB 781 million, prepayments were RMB 172 million, inventory was RMB 894 million, accounts payable were RMB 740 million, and notes payable were RMB 789 million. Accounts receivable were approximately 73 times the 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders, but this ratio is greatly affected by the low base of only RMB 25.13 million in net profit attributable to shareholders. In 2024, net cash flow from operating activities was -RMB 122 million, which the annual report explained was mainly related to changes in inventory and operating receivables and payables, indicating relatively high operating capital occupation pressure under a low-gross-margin cycle.
• The company's capacity and customer scale are relatively large, but the specific value of upstream bulk raw material supplier concentration is missing; in 2024, the top five customers accounted for 14.16% of sales and the largest single customer accounted for 4.53%, so customer concentration overall is not high. Customer names and supplier names are anonymized in the annual report webpage text, and there are verification limitations in the source data for related structural data, with the latest formal annual report to prevail.

The company is located in the middle reaches of the coal coking by-product deep processing and rubber materials industry chain, and is a midstream materials enterprise characterized by scale, low gross margin, and relatively strong cyclicality, rather than an upstream resource segment or downstream brand segment with significant pricing power. Further profit improvement mainly depends on repair of the spread between raw materials and products, upgrading of the product mix toward specialty and conductive carbon black, ramp-up of carbon-based new materials projects, industry chain synergies, energy recycling, and large-scale cost control; the ultimate capacity release, customer certification, and profit contribution of related new materials projects still need to be confirmed by subsequent announcements and annual reports.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The data cutoff date is September 7, 2026, and the latest formal financial report is the 2026 Semi-Annual Report disclosed by the company on August 26, 2026. In the first half of 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -RMB 1.1156 billion, a year-on-year loss reduction of 6.60%; basic earnings per share was -RMB 0.1447, a year-on-year improvement of 7.42%; weighted average return on equity was -4.35%; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 633.9 million, compared with -RMB 82.0 million in the same period last year. The 2025 performance forecast estimated a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 420 million to RMB 470 million, and the final actual loss was RMB 463.34 million, within the forecast range.

In the first half of 2026, the company's operating revenue increased slightly year-on-year, net profit attributable to shareholders remained in a loss state but the loss narrowed year-on-year, and operating cash flow turned positive; carbon black revenue was RMB 3.18582 billion, down 2.33% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 4.40%, up 3.08 percentage points year-on-year; tar refining product revenue was RMB 733.07 million, and silica revenue was RMB 78.57 million, down 24.81% year-on-year. Domestic revenue was RMB 3.65323 billion, down 0.71% year-on-year, and overseas revenue was RMB 772.00 million, up 25.19% year-on-year. Financial expenses increased 69.37% year-on-year to RMB 65.05 million, mainly due to an increase in exchange losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations. Overall operations improved compared with the same period in 2025, but a substantive turnaround has not yet been achieved.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

According to Tonghuashun data, as of September 6, 2026, about 3 institutions had made forecasts for 2026 performance in the past six months, and the notes disclosed the Tonghuashun consensus forecast and forecasts by Northeast Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Founder Securities. The above data are all institutional forecasts and are not company performance guidance. There is considerable disagreement among institutional forecasts: the 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast range is approximately RMB 106 million to RMB 180 million, and the 2028 range is approximately RMB 329 million to RMB 482 million. Differences in forecasts may come from different judgments on the speed of traditional carbon black spread repair, the ramp-up speed of conductive carbon black, and the contribution of new materials businesses.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of September 7, 2026, the intraday trading price was approximately RMB 8.24, the previous trading day's closing price was RMB 8.14, the intraday high was RMB 8.35 and the low was RMB 8.15; total market value was approximately RMB 5.92 billion to RMB 6.05 billion, and the 52-week price range was approximately RMB 6.69 to RMB 15.99. Because the company has been loss-making over the most recent 12 months, the static P/E ratio and TTM P/E ratio do not have normal valuation significance, and quote pages usually show a loss or negative value. Based on net assets attributable to shareholders of the parent company of RMB 2.46852 billion as of June 30, 2026 and a market value of approximately RMB 6.052 billion as of September 7, 2026, PB is approximately 2.45x. Based on the Tonghuashun institutional average forecast, forward PE for 2026 to 2028 is approximately 43.5x, 24.4x, and 15.0x, respectively; based on Northeast Securities forecasts, approximately 45.8x, 26.2x, and 15.1x, respectively; based on Kaiyuan Securities forecasts, approximately 57.1x, 28.3x, and 18.4x, respectively; based on Founder Securities forecasts, approximately 33.6x, 20.2x, and 12.6x, respectively. Because the company was still loss-making in the first half of 2026, based on the Tonghuashun average forecast of RMB 139 million net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026, the second half of 2026 would need to achieve approximately RMB 245 million in net profit attributable to shareholders to meet the full-year forecast. The current valuation is highly dependent on future earnings realization. Regarding target prices, public information does not disclose a unified and clear institutional target price, and it should not be inferred on that basis.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Announcement on Abnormal Fluctuation of Stock Trading (Announcement No. 2026-036, disclosed on the evening of 2026-09-09 / 09-10)

The company's stock price deviation for two consecutive trading days, September 8 and September 9, 2026, cumulatively exceeded 20%, constituting abnormal fluctuation. The announcement disclosed that for the first half of 2026 (already disclosed on August 26), revenue was RMB 4,425,228,800 (approximately RMB 4.425 billion), up 3.01% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was -RMB 106,374,900 (a loss of approximately RMB 106 million), a year-on-year loss reduction of 7.46%; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -RMB 111,555,500, a year-on-year loss reduction of 6.60%; the company stated that no major changes had occurred in operations or the internal and external environment. Price increase statement (the direct catalyst for this abnormal fluctuation): due to rising costs caused by higher prices of the main raw material coal tar, the company made a pass-through price adjustment for its main carbon black products; the company explicitly noted that the price increase was only cost pass-through and would not necessarily bring about synchronous profit growth, and that the impact on performance was subject to significant uncertainty. Valuation note: according to CSI Index, as of September 8, 2026, the static P/E ratio of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry to which the company belongs was 29.30, while the company's own static P/E ratio was negative, significantly deviating from the industry average. During the abnormal fluctuation period, the controlling shareholder and actual controller did not buy or sell the company's shares; there were no major undisclosed matters that should be disclosed. Sources: China Securities Journal electronic edition, Sina Finance, Zhitong Finance, Jiemian News, Tonghuashun, China Financial Information Network, with multiple sources corroborating each other.

4.2 Announcement on Resolutions of the Second Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting of 2026 (Announcement No. 2026-037, 2026-09-11)

The meeting was held on September 11, 2026 by on-site plus online voting. There were 315 shareholders attending, representing 350,124,345 shares, accounting for 48.5370% of the company's total voting shares (including 3 on-site attendees representing 269,471,320 shares/37.3562%; 312 online attendees representing 80,653,025 shares/11.1808%). Proposal voting: including the proposal to provide equity pledge and guarantee for Jiangxi Black Cat High-Performance Materials Co., Ltd.'s application for interest-free support funds for provincial key innovation industrialization upgrading, among others, with an approval rate of approximately 99.96% (349,995,245 shares in favor), and multiple proposals passed by more than two-thirds. Limitation: because this page is a partial summary, the full text of the complete list of proposals for that day could not be obtained, and it is recommended to check the original text on Cninfo/Shenzhen Stock Exchange to verify all proposals. Source: Stockstar.

4.3 2025 Annual Performance Forecast (Announcement No. 2026-001, disclosed on the evening of January 30, 2026, published in newspapers on January 31)

Performance forecast period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31; expected net profit to be negative (first loss). Net profit attributable to shareholders: loss of RMB 420 million–470 million; the same period last year was a profit of RMB 25.1347 million. Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses: loss of RMB 450 million–500 million; the same period last year was a loss of RMB 29.2891 million. Basic earnings per share: loss of RMB 0.5712/share–RMB 0.6392/share (calculated based on total share capital of 7,353,451,960 shares); the same period last year was a profit of RMB 0.0342/share. Reasons for change: the price of the main raw material coal tar fluctuated sharply throughout the year and was generally under pressure, highlighting cost pressure; downstream tire industry demand support was insufficient, the industry supply-demand pattern was under pressure, product prices and costs were inverted, and profit margins were significantly squeezed. The forecast was not pre-audited by accountants; the company stated that there was no disagreement with the annual audit accountant. Sources: East Money announcements, Securities Daily, China Financial Information Network performance forecast page, China Securities Network, with figures consistent across multiple sources.

4.4 2025 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast (Announcement No. approximately dated July 15, 2025)

Estimated 2025H1 net profit attributable to shareholders loss of RMB 95 million–120 million (same period last year loss of RMB 54.4836 million); loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of RMB 110 million–135 million. Reasons: raw material price fluctuations, supply-demand imbalance, weak downstream demand, and intensified industry competition led to a year-on-year decline in carbon black gross margin. Comparison with actual values: 2025 semi-annual report net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 115 million, revenue of RMB 4.296 billion (down 12.56% year-on-year). Sources: China Financial Information Network performance forecast page, AASTOCKS/Gelonghui.

4.5 2025 Annual Report (disclosure date 2026-03-31)

Full-year 2025 operating revenue was RMB 8,685,063,600 (approximately RMB 8.685 billion); cumulative carbon black production was 1.0794 million tons and sales were 1.065 million tons, with a production-to-sales ratio of 98.67%; domestic/overseas sales accounted for 85.61%/14.39%. By product (East Money F10 main business composition, 2025-12-31): carbon black RMB 6.881 billion (accounting for 79.23%, gross margin only 0.35%), tar refining products RMB 1.231 billion (14.18%), other RMB 392.7 million (4.52%). Capital operation review: Jining Black Cat's 250,000 tons/year continuous feed gas supporting production line started construction; Liaoning Black Cat's first domestic 20,000 tons/year wet-process masterbatch mass production line was completed and put into operation; promoted a core employee co-investment platform; cumulative repurchases in 2025 were 13,989,800 shares; controlling shareholder Black Cat Group cumulatively increased holdings by 14,706,900 shares. Note: the final definite values of 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders/net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in the annual report were not obtained, and the figures in the main text of the annual report should prevail. Sources: Sina Finance annual report full-text page, China Securities Journal, East Money F10 main business composition.

4.6 Share Repurchase (initiated in December 2024, completed in early 2025)

Announcement on the evening of 2024-12-04: proposed to use own funds plus a special stock repurchase loan to conduct centralized bidding repurchases, with a total amount of RMB 100 million–150 million, a price ceiling of RMB 11.95/share, and the purpose being an employee stock ownership plan and/or equity incentive. ICBC Jingdezhen Branch issued a Loan Commitment Letter for the special repurchase loan. Timeline: 2024-12-28 repurchase report → 2025-01-02 first repurchase → 2025-01-04 repurchase proportion reached 1% → 2025-01-23 repurchase completed and repurchase implementation results. Results: the 2025 annual report showed cumulative repurchase of 13,989,800 company shares (1.90% of total share capital); the 2026 semi-annual report showed that the special securities account for repurchase still held 13,989,800 shares, accounting for 1.90%, with no change during the reporting period. Data conflict note (needs verification): the China Securities Journal text of the repurchase report stated that ICBC provided a special loan of no more than RMB 135 million for 3 years; however, a Securities Times report on 2024-12-05 stated RMB 105 million for 1 year, and the two are inconsistent, so the latest announcement original text should prevail. Sources: Securities Times·e Company, China Securities Journal, Cninfo repurchase report PDF, Sohu major events memo.

4.7 Controlling Shareholder's Increase in Holdings

Announcement of increase plan on 2024-12-05: Black Cat Group planned to increase holdings through centralized bidding, with an amount of RMB 100 million–200 million, a number not exceeding 2% of total share capital, and a term of 6 months. Progress: 2025-03-07 progress after half of the implementation period; 2025-03-26 increase progress and equity change reaching an integer multiple of 1%; 2025-04-02 announcement of implementation results of the increase. Results: the 2025 annual report disclosed that Black Cat Group cumulatively increased holdings by 14,706,900 shares. The 2026 semi-annual report showed that Black Cat Group held 269,450,720 shares, accounting for 36.64% (change during the reporting period 0). Sources: Sohu major events memo, Sina annual report page, Sohu semi-annual report page.

4.8 Clues on Reduction by Shareholders Holding More Than 5% (not fully verified)

An announcement appeared in the Sina announcement list regarding a shareholder holding more than 5% of the company's shares reducing holdings to an integer multiple of 1% (the specific date was not clear in the search results, suspected to be at some point in 2025). The second-largest shareholder is Jingdezhen Jinggangshan BAIC Innovation Development Investment Center (Limited Partnership), holding 78,788,017 shares, accounting for 10.71% (2026-06-30, change during the reporting period 0). The exact date, shareholder identity, and reduction quantity of this reduction announcement could not be cross-verified, and it is marked as an item to be confirmed. Sources: Sina Finance announcement list, Sohu 2026 semi-annual report page.

4.9 Changes in Top Ten Shareholders for the First Half of 2026 (as of 2026-06-30)

GF Jufeng Mixed Fund 7,904,800 shares (1.07%, newly added during the reporting period); Hong Kong Central Clearing 5,415,536 shares (0.74%, +1,189,143); J.P.Morgan Securities PLC proprietary funds 4,929,567 shares (0.67%, +4,579,106); Goldman Sachs International proprietary funds 4,313,524 shares (0.59%, newly added); Chen Shujun 4,121,900 shares (0.56%, -949,000); total number of common shareholders 50,342. Source: Sohu 2026 semi-annual report page.

4.10 Announcement on Arbitration Result and Addition of a Controlled Grandchild Company (Announcement No. 2025-048, disclosed on the evening of 2025-12-26 / 12-27) + Resolutions of the Sixth Meeting of the Eighth Board of Directors (2025-049)

As applicant, the company filed arbitration with the Jingdezhen Arbitration Commission regarding a dispute over an Equity Pledge Agreement with Anhui Shilian Special Solvent Co., Ltd., and received an Arbitration Award [Jing Zhong Cai Zi (2025) No. 318], which is a final award; the arbitration fee of RMB 252,027.00 was borne by the respondent. Implementation of the result: Anhui Shilian transferred all of its equity in Shandong Shilian Black Cat New Materials Co., Ltd. (Shandong Shilian) to the company's wholly owned subsidiary Jining Black Cat Carbon Black Co., Ltd. Equity structure change: before the transfer, the industrial and commercial registration showed Anhui Shilian 55.00%, Jining Black Cat 35.00%, and Shandong Ronghui Chemical 10.00%; after the debt-to-equity swap capital increase in November 2025, Anhui Shilian's shareholding decreased to 47.68% (capital contribution RMB 53.40 million); after this transfer of 47.68%, Jining Black Cat held a total of 68.93% of Shandong Shilian, and Shandong Shilian changed from an associate company to a controlled grandchild company. Transaction consideration: based on the valuation date of 2025-11-30, appraised net assets were RMB 33.9594 million; the appraised value corresponding to the 47.68% equity was RMB 16.1918 million (RMB 16,191,800), and the consideration was entirely used to repay related debts. Target financials (audited): as of 2025-11-30, total assets were RMB 162.6404 million, total liabilities were RMB 149.2364 million, and net assets were RMB 13.4040 million; from January to November 2025, operating revenue was RMB 11.24998 million and net profit was -RMB 27.9710 million (full-year 2024 net profit -RMB 34.1030 million), and the target is currently in a loss-making state. Company statement: the arbitration result does not affect normal operations; after Shandong Shilian is included in consolidation, it can further optimize the debt structure, reduce accounts payable, and help extend the fine chemical industry chain and improve comprehensive utilization efficiency; the specific accounting treatment and impact on profit and loss shall be subject to confirmation by the annual audit accountant. This matter does not constitute a related-party transaction nor a major asset restructuring, and does not need to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review. Sources: China Financial Information Network, East Money announcements, Stockstar, Jiufang Zhitou, China Securities Journal.

4.11 Governance/System Announcements

The first extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2025 (resolutions on 2025-11-15) and the 2025-10-28 board of directors/shareholders' meeting notice: topics included increasing the company's business scope and amending the Articles of Association, batch amendment and formulation of corporate governance systems (11 items including the rules of procedure for the shareholders' meeting, rules of procedure for the board of directors, and the working system for independent directors), the proposal for joint investment with professional institutions and related-party transaction, and the proposal to change the accounting firm. The 2024 annual shareholders' meeting (2025-04-25): reviewed the 2024 annual report, the 2024 profit distribution plan (no cash dividend/no bonus shares/no capital reserve conversion), 2025 bank credit facilities, guarantees for subsidiaries, increasing the estimated daily related-party transactions for 2025, and providing equity pledge and guarantee for Jiangxi Black Cat High-Performance Materials' application for interest-free support funds for provincial key innovation industry upgrading, among others. Note: the specific counterparties, amounts, and targets of the proposal for joint investment with professional institutions and related-party transaction were not obtained in original detail. Sources: Sina Finance announcement/shareholders' meeting notice pages, Cninfo/China Securities Network disclosure platform.

4.12 Industry/Policy Background (Context Affecting Interpretation of Announcements)

According to Baichuan Yingfu data cited by the company, as of 2025-12-31, China's total carbon black industry capacity was 10.372 million tons, of which rubber carbon black was 9.507 million tons (91.7%) and specialty carbon black was 865,000 tons (8.3%). In 2025, the industry experienced total overcapacity plus structural mismatch, sharp fluctuations in coal tar, and failed cost transmission, combined with insufficient downstream tire demand, and industry enterprises generally saw net profit decline sharply or turn to losses. The company's September 2026 price increase reflects the logic of coal tar rising → carbon black pass-through transmission, but the company explicitly noted that the price increase may not necessarily bring about synchronous profit improvement. Source: East Money F10 core themes.

4.13 Uncertainties and Limitations Requiring Key Labeling

1) Timeliness gap: the latest announcement retrieved was 2026-09-11 (resolutions of the second extraordinary shareholders' meeting). Due to the tool call limit, announcements from mid-to-late September 2026 and thereafter could not be obtained, and the current actual date cannot be confirmed, so please be sure to check the full texts disclosed on Cninfo and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange official website. 2) Actual full-year 2025 performance: currently only the performance forecast of an estimated loss of RMB 420 million–470 million (unaudited) and annual report revenue of RMB 8.685 billion are available; the final definite values of 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders/net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in the annual report were not obtained, and the figures in the main text of the 2025 annual report disclosed on 2026-03-31 should prevail. 3) The special repurchase loan amount has inconsistent standards (RMB 105 million/1 year vs RMB 135 million/3 years), with different sources, and the original announcement needs to be checked. 4) The date, shareholder identity, and quantity of the announcement that shareholders holding more than 5% reduced holdings to an integer multiple of 1% have not been cross-verified. 5) The specific counterparties, amounts, and targets of the proposal for joint investment with professional institutions and related-party transaction were not obtained in original detail. 6) The full text of the complete list of proposals for the day of the second extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 was not obtained, and it was only confirmed that it included proposals such as providing a guarantee for Jiangxi Black Cat High-Performance Materials' application for interest-free support funds. 7) The Shandong Shilian acquisition was through an arbitration enforcement plus individual negotiation path, and the target had a net loss of approximately RMB 27.97 million from January to November 2025; the specific impact on the company's consolidated statement profit and loss shall be subject to confirmation by the annual audit accountant, and the announcement itself notes uncertainty.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Black Cat Carbon Black closed at RMB 9.68, still above MA5, MA10, and MA20. The moving average structure of MA5>MA10>MA20 has not yet been broken, and the Bollinger position remains above the middle band and close to the upper band, so the short- and medium-term trend of the technical pattern remains relatively strong. However, after the rapid rise from September 8 to 10, it fell 6.02% on increased volume on September 11, and on September 10 there was a net outflow of main funds of approximately RMB 80.2723 million, indicating high-level disagreement and profit-taking. The short-term key is whether the RMB 9.30~9.50 support can hold and whether it can regain RMB 10.00~10.30 with turnover support; if RMB 9.30 is lost, attention should be paid to the moving average support zone of RMB 8.30~8.80.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario deduction based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute a deterministic judgment on future share price movements.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• High-level consolidation (subjective heuristic weight relatively high, approximately 50% to 60%; not a statistical probability): reference range RMB 9.30~10.30. Trigger conditions include the share price holding RMB 9.30~9.50 but failing to effectively regain RMB 10.00~10.30, turnover falling back to approximately RMB 500 million~1 billion from the September 8 to 11 peak, and no obvious sustained catalyst in the industry or broader market. This corresponds to using time to digest space and high-level turnover after the previous rapid rise.
• Weaker downside (subjective heuristic weight medium, approximately 30%; not a statistical probability): reference range RMB 8.30~9.30. Trigger conditions include falling below RMB 9.27~9.30 on increased volume, single-day turnover still exceeding RMB 800 million~1 billion, main funds continuing a relatively large net outflow, the MACD histogram continuing to narrow, and RSI6 falling to around 50 or lower. If the RMB 9.30 support fails, attention should be paid to the RMB 8.30~8.80 support zone formed by MA10 and MA20.
• Rebound and strengthening (subjective heuristic weight relatively low, approximately 10% to 20%; not a statistical probability): reference range RMB 10.00~11.00. Trigger conditions include regaining RMB 10.00~10.30, single-day turnover continuing to expand to more than RMB 1.2 billion, while the carbon black or basic chemicals sector remains strong, or new news emerges that improves market expectations. Only if it regains RMB 10.30 and effectively breaks above the intraday high of RMB 11.00 on September 10 can it be regarded as confirmation that the previous strong trend has continued.

③ Funds and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was 14.62%, and turnover was approximately RMB 1.031 billion; from September 8 to September 10, turnover rates were 7.34%, 16.94%, and 20.93%, respectively, and turnover was approximately RMB 479 million, RMB 1.193 billion, and RMB 1.621 billion, respectively. The average turnover for the four days from September 8 to 11 was approximately RMB 1.02 billion, significantly higher than the normal level of approximately RMB 130 million~260 million on most trading days from August 28 to September 4, 2026. Recent liquidity has increased significantly, but it mainly appeared alongside rapid increases and high-level turnover. As of June 30, 2026, the number of shareholders was 50,300, and the top ten tradable shareholders held approximately 53.85%; the controlling shareholder and second-largest shareholder together held approximately 47.35%, while there were also institutional or institution-type holders such as public funds, Hong Kong Central Clearing, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and private funds. The above shareholder structure data lag by at least one quarter, and after the significant increase in trading volume from September 8 to 11 there may already have been substantial turnover, so real-time institutional holdings on September 11 cannot be confirmed. In practical observation, although current turnover is high, it is not equivalent to continuous inflow of medium- and long-term funds; if volume expands but the price cannot regain key levels, it may reflect high-level chip exchange and greater short-term volatility.

A checkable volume confirmation signal is: if subsequent single-day turnover continues to reach more than RMB 1.2 billion while the closing price regains RMB 10.00~10.30, it can be regarded as an observation signal of relatively strong short-term fund absorption; if turnover expands but the close remains below RMB 9.30, attention should be paid to the risk of fund realization and downside volatility.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operating Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 9.30~9.50 area can provide effective support; if broken, further observe the RMB 8.30~8.80 MA10/MA20 support zone. The above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.
• Observe whether the share price can regain RMB 10.00~10.30, rather than only showing an intraday spike. The above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.
• Observe whether single-day turnover continues to reach more than RMB 1.2 billion and is accompanied by improvement in the closing price. The above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.
• Observe whether main funds shift from the net outflow on September 10, 2026 to consecutive net inflows, while noting that such data are not official exchange statistics. The above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.

The above scenario deduction is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, funds, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future movements, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The carbon black industry sits between coal coking by-product deep processing and tires/rubber products, with traditional rubber carbon black accounting for the main demand. The industry is characterized by a high proportion of raw material costs, a relatively high degree of product homogenization, relatively high concentration of downstream tire customers, and obvious cyclicality. In 2023, China's total carbon black capacity was approximately 8.863 million tons, and the industry has formed a certain degree of top-tier concentration, but overcapacity and homogeneous competition still exist.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• According to statistics from the Carbon Black Branch of the China Rubber Industry Association, in 2023 China's total carbon black capacity was approximately 8.863 million tons; there were 8 enterprises with more than 300,000 tons, with total capacity of 4.565 million tons, accounting for 51.51%; 3 enterprises with 200,000–300,000 tons, with total capacity of 662,000 tons, accounting for 7.47%; enterprises with more than 200,000 tons had total capacity of 5.227 million tons, accounting for 59.00%.
• Traditional products in the industry are relatively homogeneous and overall capacity is relatively sufficient, so enterprises' bargaining power is easily suppressed by supply-demand relationships; large tire enterprises have large procurement scale and strong downstream bargaining power.
• Large enterprises have advantages in customer certification, stable supply, environmental protection investment, regional layout, recycling, and cost control; small and medium-sized enterprises are more vulnerable to raw material prices, environmental production restrictions, and capital turnover shocks.
• Raw material coal tar prices are affected by the steel, coking, and coking coal industries; environmental protection, energy consumption, and safety production requirements raise industry entry barriers.
• Specialty carbon black, conductive carbon black, low-hysteresis carbon black, and carbon-based new materials are product upgrading directions.
• An industry analysis summary released by the China Rubber Industry Association in 2026 stated that in 2025 the industry experienced structural overcapacity, strong supply and weak demand, and narrowing profit space. Carbon black enterprises overall had weak bargaining power, and product prices were more likely to fall than rise; this view is a summary of the 2025 industry situation and does not represent final statistical data for the full year of 2026.
• There may be statistical scope differences between industry association capacity and competitive ranking data and listed company consolidated statements, and they cannot be simply equated.

6.3 Main Competitors

Black Cat Carbon Black's core competitiveness mainly comes from large-scale carbon black production, cross-regional base layout, customer certification, and comprehensive resource utilization capabilities. Compared with Longxing Technology and Yongdong Co., Ltd., the company has larger carbon black output and base scale, and obvious synergies between tar refining and tail gas energy utilization; compared with Jinneng Technology, the company's business is more focused on carbon black and related carbon-based materials, while Jinneng Technology's coal coking and new chemical materials businesses are more diversified; compared with Lianke Technology, Black Cat Carbon Black takes carbon black as its core, while Lianke Technology is more distinctive in precipitated silica and green tire materials; compared with Cabot, Black Cat Carbon Black has a foundation in traditional carbon black scale and domestic layout, but still needs to improve competitiveness in specialty carbon black, conductive materials, global supply chains, and high-performance products through product upgrading and customer certification.

7. Risk Warnings

• Raw material costs such as coal tar account for a high proportion. In 2024, raw materials in the chemical business accounted for 80.17% of operating costs, and raw materials in the carbon black business accounted for 81.89%; if coal tar prices continue to rise while carbon black prices cannot be transmitted synchronously, product spreads and gross margins may again be compressed. The company has clearly stated that the recent price increase is mainly cost pass-through and does not necessarily bring about synchronous profit growth.
• The traditional carbon black business faces problems such as overcapacity, product homogenization, and strong bargaining power of downstream tire customers. In 2025, the company's carbon black revenue fell to RMB 6.881 billion, with a gross margin of only 0.35%; if strong supply and weak demand in the industry continue, scale and capacity utilization may not necessarily translate into profit.
• The company's profit recovery has not yet been fully verified by the latest financial results. In the first half of 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders was still a loss of RMB 106 million, and the loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 112 million; if profit improvement implied by institutional forecasts cannot be achieved in the second half, the expectation of a full-year 2026 turnaround may fail.
• The company's accounts receivable, receivables financing, and inventory are relatively large. In 2024, net cash flow from operating activities was -RMB 122 million, accounts receivable were RMB 1.838 billion, approximately 18.14% of that year's operating revenue; in a low-gross-margin environment, deterioration in customer collections, inventory turnover, or operating capital occupation may increase cash flow and debt repayment pressure.
• The new materials business is still in the stage of project promotion, customer certification, or capacity release awaiting verification. Conductive carbon black, carbon nanotubes, wet-process masterbatch, and other carbon-based materials have not yet formed profit contributions fully proven by the latest performance; project ramp-up falling short of expectations may cause the growth logic to fail.
• After Shandong Shilian is included as a controlled grandchild company, the target had a net profit loss of approximately RMB 27.97 million from January to November 2025. The specific accounting treatment after consolidation and the impact on the company's profit and loss are still subject to confirmation by the annual audit accountant, and related integration and operating losses may increase performance uncertainty.
• The company's share price has recently experienced rapid increases and high-level turnover. On September 11, 2026, the close fell 6.02% from the previous trading day, with a turnover rate of 14.62%; if the share price cannot maintain support in the RMB 9.30–9.50 area, short-term volatility may further amplify. The current P/E ratio has no normal valuation significance because of losses, and the price-to-book ratio is approximately 2.88x, making the valuation relatively sensitive to future earnings realization.
• During the abnormal fluctuation period involved in the company's September 2026 announcement, market attention focused on the carbon black price increase, but the company also noted that the impact of the price increase on performance is subject to significant uncertainty; if the market misreads cost pass-through as synchronous margin improvement, subsequent performance falling short of expectations may trigger valuation and share price pullbacks.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Black Cat Carbon Black's medium- and long-term improvement depends on whether the traditional carbon black business can restore a reasonable spread and whether the company can convert scale, customer certification, and industry chain synergies into stable profitability. The company has relatively large carbon black capacity and a relatively high production and sales scale, overseas revenue continues to grow, and specialty carbon black, conductive materials, wet-process masterbatch, and carbon-based new materials provide directions for product mix upgrading; if raw material and product price transmission improves and new materials projects ramp up smoothly, profitability may gradually recover.

However, based on the latest results, the company still did not achieve a turnaround in the first half of 2026, carbon black revenue declined year-on-year, silica revenue declined 24.81% year-on-year, and financial expenses increased 69.37% year-on-year, while institutional forecasts require the company to achieve relatively large profitability in the second half to meet full-year forecasts. In the future, key observations should include carbon black spreads, actual profit improvement after the price increase, sustainability of operating cash flow, and customer certification and capacity release of conductive carbon black and new materials projects.

After the recent rapid rise, the share price has seen a pullback on increased volume, the valuation has become highly dependent on future earnings realization, and the company remains in a cyclical, low-gross-margin business environment. Therefore, judgments on the company's fundamentals need to combine industry supply and demand, changes in coal tar prices, progress in product mix upgrading, and realization of earnings forecasts, and conclusions should not be made solely based on short-term technical strength or price increase news.

Data Sources

• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068)_Company Announcements_Black Cat Carbon Black: 2024 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-07-22/1224247003.PDF
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068)_Company Announcements_Black Cat Carbon Black: 2021 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Carbon black industry, in desperate straits, "carbon" explores rebirth - China Rubber Industry Association
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068)_Company Announcements_Black Cat Carbon Black: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068)_Company Announcements_Black Cat Carbon Black: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• Stock code: 002068 Stock abbreviation: Black Cat Carbon Black Announcement No.: 2026-001
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• 〖Founder Chemical〗Black Cat Carbon Black (002068): Traditional carbon black may usher in a cyclical reversal, conductive carbon black opens growth space | Carbon black_Sina Finance_Sina
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068) - Stock Quote Center - Sohu Securities
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068.SZ) Chart - Yahoo Finance
• China Capital Market Statutory Information Disclosure Platform
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• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068): Arbitration result and addition of controlled grandchild company - Black Cat Carbon Black (002068): Arbitration result and addition of controlled grandchild company
• Black Cat Carbon Black: Announcement on arbitration result and addition of controlled grandchild company _ Black Cat Carbon Black (002068) _ Announcement text - Black Cat Carbon Black: Announcement on arbitration result and addition of controlled grandchild company View PDF original text
• Black Cat Carbon Black: Announcement on arbitration result and addition of controlled grandchild company - Stockstar - Black Cat Carbon Black: Announcement on arbitration result and addition of controlled grandchild company
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068)_Major Events Reminder and News Announcements_Investment Reminder_Sina Finance_Sina
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• Black Cat Carbon Black - Black Cat Carbon Black
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• 002068 Black Cat Carbon Black
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• Black Cat Carbon Black: 2024 Annual Report Summary _ Black Cat Carbon Black (002068) _ Announcement text - Black Cat Carbon Black: 2024 Annual Report Summary View PDF original text
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068.SZ) Core Themes-PC_HSF10 Data - Core Themes
• 002068 Black Cat Carbon Black
• Black Cat Carbon Black (002068)_Company Announcements_Black Cat Carbon Black: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina - 1. Overview In 2025, the company cumulatively produced 1.0794 million tons of carbon black, sold 1.065 million tons of carbon black, with a production-to-sales ratio of 98.67%, and achieved operating revenue of RMB 8,685,063,600
• Securities Daily - Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report Summary
• [Black Cat Carbon Black