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| Close | 13.88 (+0.36% on the day; -6.59% over 5 sessions; -6.09% over 20 sessions) |
|---|---|
| Market cap | CNY 11.11 billion |
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As of the 2026-09-30 close; calculated from daily price data (adjusted prices) and refreshed automatically each trading day. The one-week range reflects historical volatility only and is not a forecast. The report below was written on 2026-09-13; its prices and short-term scenarios reflect data at that time.
Lier Chemical Co., Ltd. (002258)
Equity Research Report | Industry: Chemical Pesticide Manufacturing (Pesticide Technicals and Formulations) | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | September 11, 2026 Close (Friday; multiple Chinese sources consistently identify this as the latest complete trading day; the post-close capital-flow page was updated at 16:05 on September 11, 2026; if the actual writing date is later than September 11, the data should be refreshed)
This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.
1. Executive Summary
The most decision-relevant fact regarding Lier Chemical (002258.SZ) is that its change of control remains in progress. Controlling shareholder Jiuyuan Group and its acting-in-concert party Huacai Technology intend to transfer 188,102,749 shares, representing 23.50% of total share capital, to China Resources Double-Crane at RMB 30.07 per share, for total consideration of approximately RMB 5.656 billion. The price represents a premium of approximately 104.42% to the closing price of RMB 14.71 on the agreement-signing date, July 29, 2026. Upon completion, China Resources Double-Crane will become the controlling shareholder, while the actual controller will change from the Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics to China Resources Co., Ltd. As of the announcement, the transaction still requires approval from the state-owned assets regulator, clearance under the antitrust merger-control review, compliance confirmation from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and completion of the share transfer registration. It has not yet been completed. China Resources Double-Crane will be prohibited from transferring the acquired shares for 60 months, and has no plan to inject assets into Lier Chemical within 36 months.
Operating results show a combination of strong growth in 2025 and “higher revenue but lower profit” in the first half of 2026. In 2025, revenue reached RMB 9.008 billion (+23.21% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 479 million (+122.33% YoY), mainly driven by a 37.16% increase in pesticide technical revenue and a 40.98% increase in international sales. In the first half of 2026, revenue rose 6.86% YoY to RMB 4.816 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell 7.77% YoY to RMB 249.53 million and recurring net profit declined 11.25% YoY to RMB 241.72 million. The main causes were foreign-exchange losses of RMB 62.5474 million, compared with a gain of RMB 8.9148 million in the prior-year period, the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products, and higher raw-material prices. Net operating cash flow turned negative at RMB -35.01 million (-110.99% YoY). On a marginal basis, second-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 134 million, up 14.44% YoY, representing sequential improvement and a return to growth.
By business structure, the company is primarily engaged in pesticide technicals, which accounted for 62.45% of 2025 revenue with an 18.16% gross margin, and pesticide formulations, which accounted for 20.45% of revenue with a 19.53% gross margin. Pesticide intermediates had the highest gross margin at 25.31%. International sales accounted for 53.79% of revenue and domestic sales for 46.21%, indicating a relatively balanced geographic distribution. R&D investment reached RMB 218 million in the first half of 2026, up 52.89% YoY. The 20,000-ton-per-year enzymatic glufosinate-P project in Jinshi, Hunan has entered production and is operating normally. The company identifies glufosinate-P, chlorantraniliprole and prothioconazole projects as the main sources of incremental 2026 earnings.
In terms of market performance and valuation, the September 11, 2026 closing price was RMB 15.15, implying a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 12.127 billion, a P/E ratio of approximately 26.49x on a TTM basis and a P/B ratio of approximately 1.52x. Consensus estimates from 13 institutions put 2026E net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 615.3 million and EPS at RMB 0.7662; 2027E net profit is RMB 754.3 million and 2028E net profit is RMB 871.2 million. Over the past six months, institutional target prices ranged from RMB 15.00 to RMB 19.75, with an average of RMB 17.38. The RMB 15.00 target price issued by CICC on August 30, 2026 implies limited upside, creating a clear timing mismatch with earlier, higher target prices. Technically, the closing price was above MA20 at RMB 14.73 and between MA5 at RMB 15.27 and MA10 at RMB 14.96. MACD had formed a golden cross above the zero line, while RSI was above 50. The technical setup was neutral-to-strong but not overbought. The average chip cost was RMB 14.55, and the 70% cost range was RMB 13.72–15.49.
2. Company Overview
2.1 Basic Information
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Stock code | 002258 (Shenzhen Stock Exchange, ISIN: CNE100000C98) |
| Full company name | Lier Chemical Co., Ltd. |
| Background | A high-tech “military-to-civilian” enterprise established in 1993 by the Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics; the joint-stock company was established on August 1, 2007 (sources: CLS, Zhinan Zhenxing) |
| Listing date | July 9, 2008 (source: TradingView) |
| Registered/office address | Registered in Mianyang Economic and Technological Development Zone, Sichuan; office in Chenghua District, Chengdu (source: Zhinan Zhenxing) |
| Total shares | Approximately 800 million shares (800.4372 million shares as of June 30, 2025; source: Zhinan Zhenxing) |
| Legal representative/general manager | Legal representative: Yin Yingsui; General Manager/CEO: Li Jiang (sources: Zhinan Zhenxing, TradingView) |
| Industry classification | CSRC C26 Manufacture of Chemical Raw Materials and Chemical Products → C2631 Chemical Pesticide Manufacturing (source: the company’s 2025 interim report) |
| Production bases | Seven production bases in Mianyang, Guang’an, Nantong, Yueyang, Hebi, Jingzhou and Jinshi, covering a relatively complete “chemical raw materials–intermediates–technicals–formulations” chain (sources: the company’s December 24, 2025 investor-relations activity record and 2025 interim report) |
| Data timeliness | The latest public materials retrieved for this report are concentrated around September 2026; “as of” dates below follow this basis |
2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio
- Pesticide technicals: 2025 core-business revenue of RMB 5.625 billion, accounting for 62.45% of revenue, with an 18.16% gross margin (source: the company’s 2025 annual report, reproduced by Eastmoney F10 and Jiufang Zhitou)
- Pesticide formulations: 2025 core-business revenue of RMB 1.842 billion, accounting for 20.45% of revenue, with a 19.53% gross margin (source: the company’s 2025 annual report)
- Pesticide intermediates: 2025 core-business revenue of RMB 815.5 million, accounting for 9.05% of revenue, with a 25.31% gross margin (source: the company’s 2025 annual report)
- Agrochemical product distribution: 2025 core-business revenue of RMB 352.9 million, accounting for 3.92% of revenue, with an 8.59% gross margin (source: the company’s 2025 annual report)
- Chemical materials and others: 2025 core-business revenue of RMB 328.4 million, accounting for 3.65% of revenue, with a 20.78% gross margin (source: the company’s 2025 annual report)
- Environmental disposal: 2025 core-business revenue of RMB 27.1 million, accounting for 0.30% of revenue, with a 37.33% gross margin (source: the company’s 2025 annual report)
- Product lines cover herbicides, fungicides and insecticides, comprising more than 40 technical products, more than 100 formulations, and certain chemical intermediates such as 2-methylpyridine (sources: the company’s 2025 annual report; CLS separately refers to “more than 30 technical products,” which differs from the annual-report definition; this report follows the annual-report figure of more than 40)
- Operating model: group-level management and control; bulk materials are purchased externally by a centralized procurement center, while small-volume materials are purchased locally; production is based on sales orders. Sales are divided into international sales, primarily self-operated exports directly to international agrochemical companies and distributors, and domestic sales through provincial, municipal and county distributors, township retailers, pesticide companies and foreign-trade companies. Overseas subsidiaries, including those in Cambodia, are being established to promote proprietary-brand formulations and extend the value chain toward end customers (source: the company’s 2025 interim report)
- Revenue by industry in 2025: pesticides and intermediates RMB 8.624 billion, accounting for 95.74%, with an 18.75% gross margin; chemical materials RMB 367.5 million, accounting for 4.08%, with a 21.79% gross margin
- Revenue by geography in 2025: international sales RMB 4.845 billion, accounting for 53.79%, with an 18.36% gross margin; domestic sales RMB 4.163 billion, accounting for 46.21%, with a 19.56% gross margin
- 2025 full-year revenue was RMB 9.008 billion, up 23.21% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 479 million, up 122.33% YoY (2025 annual report disclosed on March 27, 2026; cross-checked by Dongxing Securities on April 7, 2026 and Great Wall Securities on April 21, 2026)
2.3 Position in the Value Chain and Cost/Profit Structure
Lier Chemical occupies the middle-to-upper reaches of the pesticide value chain, spanning intermediates, technicals and formulations. Its core products are high-efficiency, low-toxicity and low-residue technical pesticides based on chloropyridines, organophosphorus compounds, sulfonylureas and substituted ureas. It also produces chemical intermediates such as 2-methylpyridine and extends downstream into formulations and end-user brands. The research materials do not provide a detailed breakdown of specific upstream raw materials, such as basic chemical inputs or the proportion of externally purchased intermediates, nor do they provide supplier-concentration data. Accordingly, detailed data on the upstream cost structure are unavailable.
- The research materials do not disclose detailed categories of externally purchased raw materials, such as basic chemical materials or the purchase ratio of key intermediates; these data are unavailable.
- The research materials do not disclose supplier concentration, such as the combined share of the top five suppliers; these data are unavailable.
- The operating model indicates that bulk materials are procured externally through a centralized procurement center and small-volume materials are purchased locally (source: the company’s 2025 interim report), but the materials do not provide direct evidence on the procurement-pricing mechanism or the company’s bargaining power over suppliers.
- The company has a relatively complete “chemical raw materials–intermediates–technicals–formulations” chain across seven production bases in Mianyang, Guang’an, Nantong, Yueyang, Hebi, Jingzhou and Jinshi (sources: the December 24, 2025 investor-relations activity record and 2025 interim report). Some intermediates, such as 2-methylpyridine, are produced in-house, but the materials provide no quantitative estimate of reliance on external procurement.
- No specific data are provided on the impact of upstream raw-material price movements on the company’s costs; therefore, it is not possible to determine from the available materials whether the company is a price taker or has bargaining power upstream.
- Sales channels consist of international sales, primarily self-operated exports directly to international agrochemical companies and distributors, and domestic sales through provincial, municipal and county distributors, township retailers, pesticide companies and foreign-trade companies (source: the company’s 2025 interim report).
- 2025 geographic revenue: international sales RMB 4.845 billion, accounting for 53.79%, with an 18.36% gross margin; domestic sales RMB 4.163 billion, accounting for 46.21%, with a 19.56% gross margin. This indicates a relatively balanced geographic distribution of downstream customers.
- The research materials do not disclose the combined share of the top five customers. Customer-concentration data are unavailable. The only relevant item retrieved was the title of a Guosen Securities 2025 annual-report review, which referred to “continued deepening of cooperation with major customers”; no specific customer names or percentages were provided.
- The source list includes a PDF entitled “Explain the reasons for the relatively high customer concentration based on industry characteristics and downstream customers, and the reasons for differences from peer companies,” but the body of the research materials does not cite any specific figures from it. It therefore cannot be used as customer-concentration data.
- Overseas expansion: overseas subsidiaries, including those in Cambodia, are being established to promote proprietary-brand formulations and extend the value chain toward end customers (source: the company’s 2025 interim report).
- The company’s products have been exported to the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Australia and more than 30 other countries and regions (source: 2021 convertible-bond tracking report; this source is relatively old, and the latest annual report should be consulted).
- The research materials do not provide receivables-to-profit or receivables-to-revenue ratios, receivables turnover days, or specific data on working-capital occupation by prepayments and payables. The actual bargaining position in the value chain therefore cannot be quantified. Only qualitative observations can be made based on the sales model—primarily self-operated exports internationally and distributor-based sales domestically—but the materials provide no working-capital data to support a conclusion.
- The research materials do not disclose the combined shares of the top five customers and suppliers. A customer-concentration PDF is included in the source list, but its specific data are not cited in the body and cannot be verified. The latest annual report’s “Major Customers and Suppliers” section should be used as the reference.
| Year | Gross margin | Net margin | Brief explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Gross margin for pesticides and intermediates: 18.75% (by product: pesticide technicals 18.16%, pesticide formulations 19.53%, pesticide intermediates 25.31%, agrochemical distribution 8.59%, chemical materials and others 20.78%, environmental disposal 37.33%) | The research materials do not directly provide 2025 net margin; they only provide net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 479 million and revenue of RMB 9.008 billion | Revenue increased 23.21% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders increased 122.33% YoY (source: the company’s 2025 annual report, disclosed March 27, 2026; cross-checked by Dongxing Securities and Great Wall Securities). The materials do not explain the specific reason for the gross-margin change. The titles “Higher production and sales volumes drove revenue growth” and “Pesticide sales increased significantly” suggest a volume-driven increase, but the causal relationship is not developed in the materials. |
| 2024 | The research materials do not provide 2024 gross margin | The research materials do not provide 2024 net margin | The source list includes a link to Lier Chemical’s 2024 annual report, but the body does not extract any gross-margin or net-margin figures. Data for the year are unavailable. |
| 2021 | The research materials do not provide 2021 gross margin | The research materials do not provide 2021 net margin | The source list includes a 2021 convertible-bond tracking report, but the body only cites its description of export destinations and does not extract gross-margin or net-margin data. Data for the year are unavailable. |
Lier Chemical is positioned in the middle-to-upper portion of the pesticide industry’s smile curve. Its core businesses are pesticide technicals, which accounted for 62.45% of 2025 revenue with an 18.16% gross margin, and pesticide intermediates, which had a 25.31% gross margin. Upstream, it covers chemical materials and in-house intermediate production; downstream, it extends into pesticide formulations, which accounted for 20.45% of revenue with a 19.53% gross margin, and overseas proprietary-brand formulations. Based on 2025 data, intermediates had the highest gross margin at 25.31%, technicals had a relatively thin margin at 18.16%, formulations were slightly more profitable than technicals at 19.53% but below intermediates, and agrochemical distribution had the lowest margin at 8.59%. The overall structure is therefore characterized by higher-margin intermediates, mid-margin technicals and formulations, and low-margin distribution.
The research materials do not provide upstream cost-structure, customer-concentration or working-capital data. Quantitative assessment of bargaining power and the drivers of further margin improvement—such as product-mix upgrades, volume ramp-up of new products including glufosinate-P, cost control or economies of scale—is therefore limited. The 20,000-ton-per-year enzymatic glufosinate-P project in Jinshi, Hunan has entered production and is operating normally (sources: Tonghuashun, December 25, 2025, and jsppa.com.cn), which provides an indication of product-mix upgrading, although its specific impact on margins has not been quantified.
3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis
3.1 Recent Operating Performance
| Reporting period | Revenue | YoY | Net profit attributable to shareholders | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H 2026 interim report (disclosed August 27, 2026) | RMB 4.816 billion | +6.86% | RMB 249.53 million | -7.77% |
| 1Q 2026 | RMB 2.312 billion | +10.85% | RMB 115 million | -24.82% |
| FY 2025 | RMB 9.008 billion | +23.21% | RMB 479 million | +122.33% |
| FY 2024 | RMB 7.311 billion | Data unavailable (the materials do not provide 2024 revenue growth) | RMB 215.3 million | Data unavailable (the materials do not provide 2024 net-profit growth) |
| FY 2023 | RMB 7.851 billion | Data unavailable (the materials do not provide 2023 revenue growth) | RMB 603.9 million | Data unavailable (the materials do not provide 2023 net-profit growth) |
Sources: Jiemian News, Eastmoney, Securities Star announcement summaries, Sina Finance, Dongxing Securities research, Guosen/Great Wall/Pacific/CICC research and Eastmoney F10, among others; see the source links in the research materials. The 1H 2026 interim report also disclosed recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 241.72 million (-11.25% YoY), basic/diluted EPS of RMB 0.3117, weighted-average ROE of 3.13%, net operating cash flow of RMB -35.01 million (-110.99% YoY), R&D investment of RMB 218 million (+52.89% YoY), and financial expenses up 227.35% YoY, including foreign-exchange losses of RMB 62.5474 million in the first half. 2Q 2026 revenue was RMB 2.503 billion (+3.42% YoY), and quarterly net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 134 million (+14.44% YoY). Period-end total assets were RMB 17.243 billion, up 6.94% from year-end 2025; net assets attributable to shareholders were RMB 7.977 billion, up 1.12%; the debt ratio was 45.72%; and first-half gross margin was 19.05%. The 1Q 2026 report additionally disclosed recurring net profit of RMB 109 million (-27.40% YoY) and net operating cash flow of RMB -344 million. The 2025 annual report additionally disclosed recurring net profit of RMB 479 million (+138.83% YoY); 4Q 2025 revenue of RMB 2.299 billion (+8.29% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 97 million (+16.83% YoY and -11.97% QoQ); pesticide technical revenue of RMB 5.625 billion (+37.16%, gross margin 18.16%), pesticide formulation revenue of RMB 1.842 billion (+22.80%, gross margin 19.53%) and pesticide-intermediate revenue of RMB 815 million (+4.65%); international sales of RMB 4.845 billion (+40.98%) and domestic sales of RMB 4.163 billion (+7.45%). Historical EPS and ROE were: 2023 EPS RMB 0.7544 and ROE 8.30%; 2024 EPS RMB 0.2690 and ROE 2.83%; 2025 EPS RMB 0.5981 and ROE 6.12%. Overseas data sources including Yahoo Finance, MarketScreener and Investing.com report 2024 revenue of approximately RMB 9.2–9.4 billion, clearly inconsistent with the official Chinese figure of RMB 7.311 billion. The research materials consider the overseas aggregation methodology questionable; this table follows Chinese primary sources.
Performance rebounded strongly in 2025, with revenue up 23.21% and net profit attributable to shareholders up 122.33%, mainly driven by growth in pesticide technical revenue (+37.16%) and international sales (+40.98%). 2024 was a trough year, with revenue of RMB 7.311 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 215.3 million. The first half of 2026 showed a “higher revenue but lower profit” pattern: revenue rose 6.86% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell 7.77% and recurring net profit fell 11.25%. The main factors were foreign-exchange losses of RMB 62.5474 million versus a gain of RMB 8.9148 million in the prior-year period, cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products and higher raw-material prices. Net operating cash flow turned negative at RMB -35.01 million. However, second-quarter results improved sequentially, with quarterly net profit attributable to shareholders up 14.44% YoY. R&D investment increased 52.89%. 1H 2026 basic EPS was RMB 0.3117 and weighted-average ROE was 3.13%.
3.2 Earnings Forecasts
Forecast sources: Eastmoney F10 consensus estimates as of approximately August 30, 2026, covering 13 institutions, and Tonghuashun iNews. All figures are institutional forecasts or consensus estimates, not disclosed actual results. Individual 2026E forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders/EPS include: Northeast Securities RMB 654 million/RMB 0.82 (Buy); China Securities Co., Ltd. RMB 614 million/RMB 0.77 (Buy); Dongxing Securities RMB 590 million/RMB 0.74 (Strongly Recommended); CICC RMB 611 million/RMB 0.76 (Outperform, RMB 15.0 target price); Great Wall Securities RMB 608 million/RMB 0.76 (Buy); Guotai Haitong RMB 629 million/RMB 0.79 (Outperform, RMB 19.75 target price); Pacific Securities RMB 596 million/RMB 0.74 (Buy); BOC International RMB 0.70 EPS (Buy); Guosen Securities EPS of RMB 0.78/0.95/1.02 for 2026/27/28 and net profit of RMB 626/757/816 million (Outperform); Huaxin Securities EPS of RMB 0.78/1.07/1.10 and net profit of RMB 626/860 million (Buy); and Founder Securities RMB 601 million/RMB 0.75 (Buy). Selected 2027E/2028E estimates include Guotai Haitong EPS of RMB 0.79/0.90/1.01 for 2026–28, implying growth of +31.3%/+14.2%/+12.9%; Dongxing Securities EPS of RMB 0.74/0.84/0.97 and net profit of RMB 590/671/776 million; Pacific Securities EPS of RMB 0.74/0.92/1.01; and China Securities Co. 2027E EPS of RMB 0.96 and net profit of RMB 769 million. Forecast dispersion is relatively high: for example, Huaxin Securities’ 2027E EPS of RMB 1.07 and Northeast Securities’ 2028E EPS of RMB 1.21 are notably above other estimates. The 13-institution average represents only the sample. Consensus ROE is 7.45%/8.78%/9.56% for 2026E/27E/28E, based on 12 institutions.
| Year | Revenue | Net profit attributable to shareholders | Net-profit growth | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | RMB 10.11 billion (13-institution consensus) | RMB 615.3 million (13-institution consensus) | Approximately +28% (2025→2026) | RMB 0.7662 (consensus) |
| 2027E | RMB 11.13 billion (13-institution consensus) | RMB 754.3 million (13-institution consensus) | Data unavailable (the materials do not provide a uniform 2027 net-profit growth rate) | RMB 0.9431 (consensus) |
| 2028E | RMB 12.18 billion (12-institution consensus) | RMB 871.2 million (12-institution consensus) | Data unavailable (the materials do not provide a uniform 2028 net-profit growth rate) | RMB 1.0917 (consensus) |
3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings
| Institution | Rating | Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guotai Haitong | Outperform | April 17, 2026 | RMB 19.75 target price, applying 25x 2026E P/E; 2026–28 EPS of RMB 0.79/0.90/1.01 |
| China Securities Co. | Buy | May 11, 2026 (report) / May 12, 2026 (target price) | RMB 16.74 target price; 2026E EPS RMB 0.77/net profit RMB 614 million; 2027E EPS RMB 0.96/net profit RMB 769 million |
| CICC | Outperform | August 30, 2026 (updated) | RMB 15.00 target price, corresponding to approximately 19.6x/17.9x 2026/27E P/E and implying approximately 1.6% upside |
| Northeast Securities | Buy | May 22, 2026 | 2026E EPS RMB 0.82/net profit RMB 654 million |
| Dongxing Securities | Strongly Recommended | April 28, 2026 | No target price; 2026E EPS RMB 0.74/net profit RMB 590 million; 2026–28 net profit RMB 590/671/776 million |
| Great Wall Securities | Buy | April 21, 2026 | 2026E EPS RMB 0.76/net profit RMB 608 million |
| Pacific Securities | Buy | April 14, 2026 | 2026E EPS RMB 0.74/net profit RMB 596 million; 2026–28 EPS RMB 0.74/0.92/1.01 |
| BOC International | Buy | April 1, 2026 | No target price; 2026E EPS RMB 0.70 |
| Guosen Securities | Outperform | March 31, 2026 | No target price; 2026/27/28 EPS RMB 0.78/0.95/1.02 and net profit RMB 626/757/816 million |
| Huaxin Securities | Buy | March 30, 2026 | 2026/27/28 EPS RMB 0.78/1.07/1.10 and net profit RMB 626/860 million |
| Founder Securities | Buy | March 29, 2026 | 2026E EPS RMB 0.75/net profit RMB 601 million |
Reference market data from Eastmoney article quote boxes around August 28, 2026: latest price approximately RMB 15.15, change +1.20%, total market capitalization approximately RMB 12.1 billion, and quoted P/E of approximately 24.3x. Total shares are estimated at approximately 800 million, based on the proposed transfer of 188,102,749 shares representing 23.50% of total share capital. At RMB 15.15, market capitalization is approximately RMB 12.1 billion.
Forward valuation, calculated using RMB 15.15 and consensus EPS, is approximately 19.8x for 2026E, 16.1x for 2027E and 13.9x for 2028E. TTM net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated at approximately RMB 458 million: RMB 479 million for 2025 + RMB 250 million for 1H 2026 - RMB 271 million for 1H 2025. TTM EPS is approximately RMB 0.57 and TTM P/E approximately 26.5x, slightly different from Eastmoney’s 24.3x due to differences in price timing and methodology. CICC’s methodology indicates that the current share price corresponds to 19.3x/17.6x 2026/27E P/E as of August 30, 2026. Book value per share was RMB 9.8554 in 2025, implying approximately 1.54x P/B at RMB 15.15. Consensus 2026E book value per share is RMB 10.25, implying approximately 1.48x P/B.
According to Tonghuashun’s six-month summary, target prices ranged from RMB 15.00 to RMB 19.75, with an average of RMB 17.38. Among 10 institutions as of August 30, 2026, ratings comprised five Buys, two Strongly Recommended, two Outperforms and one Outperform-the-Industry rating. Securities Star reported that two institutions issued ratings during the latest 90 days, both Buys; the statistical windows differ.
Uncertainties include: ① market and valuation data are around August 28, 2026 rather than real-time; ② RMB 15.15, RMB 12.1 billion and P/E 24.3x come from an embedded Eastmoney quote box and could not be independently cross-checked on the same date; ③ most target prices were established in March–May 2026, when the share price was higher, creating a timing mismatch with the late-August price; CICC’s August 30 target price of RMB 15.00 implies limited upside compared with the earlier RMB 19.75 target; and ④ the major capital event remains subject to regulatory approvals. Jiuyuan Investment Holding Group and Sichuan Huacai Technology intend to transfer 188,102,749 shares, representing 23.50% of total share capital, to China Resources Double-Crane at RMB 30.07 per share, or approximately RMB 5.656 billion. Upon completion, China Resources Double-Crane is expected to become the controlling shareholder and China Resources the actual controller. The transaction requires state-owned-assets approval, antitrust clearance and Shenzhen Stock Exchange confirmation. The transfer price is substantially above the current market price and is therefore important to valuation assessment.
4. Recent News and Announcements
4.1 Change of Control: China Resources Double-Crane to Acquire 23.50% Stake for RMB 5.656 Billion (In Progress; Shares Not Yet Registered)
On May 21, 2026, the company announced that its controlling shareholder and acting-in-concert party intended to transfer part of the company’s shares through a public solicitation process (Announcement No. 2026-021). Jiuyuan Investment Holding Group, holding 23.78%, and Sichuan Huacai Technology, holding 8.42%, intended to transfer 188,102,749 shares, representing 23.50% of total share capital. The public solicitation period lasted 20 trading days, from May 21 to June 17, 2026, with a minimum transfer price of RMB 12.62 per share.
The solicitation ended on June 17. On June 22, the company disclosed that 10 prospective transferees had submitted applications and paid the required deposits in full. Announcements on July 15 and 16 stated that China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600062) had been selected as the highest-ranked prospective transferee after comprehensive evaluation, with Shudao Investment Group and Sichuan Energy Development Group ranked second and third. On July 29, Jiuyuan Group, Huacai Technology and China Resources Double-Crane signed a conditional share-transfer agreement. On July 30, the company disclosed a reminder announcement and a detailed report on changes in equity interests.
The transfer price is RMB 30.07 per share and the total consideration is RMB 5,656,249,662.43, or approximately RMB 5.656 billion. Jiuyuan Group will transfer 160,087,446 shares, representing 20.00%, for RMB 4.814 billion; Huacai Technology will transfer 28,015,303 shares, representing 3.50%, for RMB 842 million. Upon completion, China Resources Double-Crane will directly hold 23.50%, the controlling shareholder will change from Jiuyuan Group to China Resources Double-Crane, and the actual controller will change from the Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics to China Resources Co., Ltd. China Resources Double-Crane may not transfer the acquired shares within 60 months or pledge them within 36 months. It has no plan to inject assets into Lier Chemical within 36 months. At least 50% of the cash consideration will be funded by its own capital.
The transfer price of RMB 30.07 represents a premium of approximately 104.42% to the RMB 14.71 closing price on July 29 and is approximately 138% above the RMB 12.62 floor price. Total consideration increased from approximately RMB 2.374 billion at the floor price to RMB 5.656 billion. Based on 2025 EPS of RMB 0.5981, the implied acquisition P/E is approximately 50x; based on first-quarter 2026 book value per share of approximately RMB 10, the implied P/B is approximately 3x. China Resources Double-Crane won the transaction after defeating two Sichuan-based state-owned enterprises.
The transaction still requires approval by the state-owned assets regulator, clearance from the antitrust authority under the merger-control review, compliance confirmation by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and registration of the share transfer with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation. China Resources Double-Crane stated that the transaction is expected to constitute a material asset restructuring and must be reviewed by its board and shareholders. As of the announcement date, the transfer had not been registered; Tonghuashun showed “transfer completed: 0” and “transaction progress: in progress.”
Market reaction: Lier Chemical hit its daily upper limit approximately 30 minutes after opening on July 30, while China Resources Double-Crane closed down 3.91% the same day, according to Economic Information Daily on August 5, 2026. Sources: China Securities Journal, July 30, 2026; Shanghai Securities News/China Securities Network; National Business Daily, July 16, 2026; 21st Century Business Herald; Sina Finance announcement pages; Tonghuashun; and Economic Information Daily, August 5, 2026.
4.2 2025 Earnings Guidance: Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders Expected to Increase 113.62%–132.19%
On January 7, 2026, the company disclosed its 2025 earnings guidance (Announcement No. 2026-001). 2025 revenue was expected to be RMB 8.80–9.10 billion, up 20.37%–24.47% YoY from RMB 7,310.8817 million in the prior year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was expected to be RMB 460–500 million, up 113.62%–132.19% YoY from RMB 215.3368 million. Recurring net profit was expected to rise 129.33%–149.28%, and basic EPS was expected to be RMB 0.5747–0.6247. The change was attributed to higher demand for certain products and an increase in the consolidated gross margin. The guidance had not been audited. Sources: Securities Star announcement page, eMoney Data Center and ttchagu.com.
4.3 1Q 2026: Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders of Approximately RMB 115 Million, Down 24.82%
The company disclosed its 1Q 2026 report on the evening of April 24, 2026. Revenue was approximately RMB 2.312 billion, up 10.85% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 115 million, down 24.82%; and basic EPS was RMB 0.1437, down 24.84%. Sources: NetEase and National Business Daily AI Express.
4.4 1H 2026: Revenue Up 6.86% to RMB 4.816 Billion; 2Q Net Profit Returned to Growth
The 2026 interim report was approved at the seventh Board of Directors’ sixth meeting on August 26, 2026 and published on August 28. First-half revenue was RMB 4.816 billion, up 6.86% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 250 million, down 7.77%; and recurring net profit was RMB 242 million, down 11.25%. Second-quarter revenue was RMB 2.503 billion, up 3.42% YoY; quarterly net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 134 million, up 14.44% YoY, representing sequential improvement and a return to growth; and recurring net profit was RMB 133 million, up 8.61%. The debt ratio was 45.72% and gross margin was 19.05%. CICC added that 1H 2026 foreign-exchange losses were RMB 63 million versus a gain of RMB 9 million in 1H 2025; excluding foreign exchange, operating results grew steadily. Subsidiaries Guang’an Lier and Jiangsu Kuaida reported net profit of RMB 73.6 million and RMB 65.9 million, respectively. The company’s full-year 2025 consolidated gross margin was 18.91%, up 2.85 percentage points from 16.05% in 2024, according to the April 10, 2026 earnings briefing.
4.5 Resolution of the Seventh Board of Directors’ Sixth Meeting (Announcement No. 2026-030)
On August 28, 2026, the company disclosed the resolution of the seventh Board of Directors’ sixth meeting (Announcement No. 2026-030). The meeting approved: ① the 2026 interim report and its summary; ② amendments to the Information Disclosure Management System, Investor Relations Management System, Insider Information Confidentiality System and Internal Reporting System for Material Matters; and ③ the cancellation of the Shanghai Fuersen Chemical Branch of Lier Chemical Co., Ltd. based on operational and management needs. Sources: China Financial Information Network, August 27, 2026, and Eastmoney announcement pages.
4.6 Investor-Relations Activity Record, September 4, 2026: Glufosinate Prices May Improve; L-Serine Project Expected to Be Completed in 2H
On September 4, 2026, the company released an investor-relations activity record. Key points: market demand for glufosinate and glufosinate-P is strong, and prices may improve further; the recent slowdown in RMB/USD movements should have a positive impact on results. Projects under construction include Hunan Lier’s L-homoserine project, which is under construction and expected to be completed in the second half; Hubei Lituo’s 10,000-ton-per-year glufosinate-P technical project and supporting facilities, delayed due to process optimization, with the completion date to be disclosed separately; and projects at Guang’an Lier and Hubei Lituo involving chlorantraniliprole, glufosinate-P, thiabendazole and flame retardants, some of which are in trial production and some of which are operating normally. Source: Dahe Caifang, September 4, 2026.
4.7 2025 Earnings Briefing, April 10, 2026: 2026 Incremental Earnings Mainly from Glufosinate-P, Chlorantraniliprole and Prothioconazole
The 2025 earnings briefing was held on April 10, 2026 through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s investor-interaction platform. Key points: 2026 incremental earnings are expected to come mainly from glufosinate-P, chlorantraniliprole and prothioconazole projects; Guang’an Lier currently has chlorantraniliprole capacity of 2,000 tons; the Jinshi base has 20,000 tons of glufosinate-P capacity and is undergoing an environmental-impact assessment for capacity expansion; the “one product, one license” policy was expected to be fully implemented in mid-2026, which the company said it would closely monitor and actively address; and the Middle East situation had raised oil and certain chemical prices, which would flow through to upstream raw-material costs. Sources: World Agrochemical Network, Jiufang Zhitou and Tonghuashun research-activity records.
4.8 Capital Flows and Institutional Ratings (Briefing, Not an Announcement): Main Funds Sold Net RMB 76.4179 Million on September 10, 2026
On September 10, 2026, Lier Chemical recorded net selling by main funds of RMB 76.4179 million. Two institutions issued ratings during the latest 90 days, both Buy ratings, according to Securities Star on September 11. A CICC report around September 5 maintained an Outperform rating and a RMB 15 target price, corresponding to 19.6x/17.9x 2026/27E P/E. Guosen Securities maintained an Outperform rating on January 24, 2026 and forecast 2025–27 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 479/620/768 million.
4.9 Limitations and Uncertainties
1) Regarding share repurchases: searches for “Lier Chemical 002258 share repurchase” did not produce valid results. A recent repurchase plan could not be confirmed or cross-checked; the China Securities Regulatory Commission’s information website should be consulted. 2) The change of control has not been completed. As of the latest available announcements, dated July 30 and the equity-change report, the transaction still requires state-owned-assets approval, antitrust merger-control clearance, Shenzhen Stock Exchange compliance confirmation and registration with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation. There is a risk that it may not be completed. Tonghuashun shows “in progress” and “not registered”; it should not be treated as completed. 3) Timing: unless otherwise specified, announcement dates refer to disclosure dates. The latest market and capital-flow data are as of September 10, 2026, and institutional ratings reflect individual brokerage views; two institutions issued Buy ratings and there is no broad multi-broker consensus. 4) Some sources are financial portals relaying announcements. Core transaction terms were cross-checked against China Securities Journal and Shanghai Securities Journal official announcement pages, but specific figures in the 2026 interim report should be based on the company’s formal August 28 disclosure. 5) The original PDFs on the China Securities Regulatory Commission information website could not be opened and checked line by line. Announcement numbers 2026-021/027/028/030/001 come from multiple relaying sources and are broadly consistent, but the originals should be treated as authoritative.
5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis
5.1 Price Overview
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Closing price | RMB 15.15, up RMB 0.18, or +1.20% (consistent across Sina Finance, Eastmoney, Jiufang Zhitou, Tonghuashun and Baidu Stock Connect) |
| Previous close / open | Previous close RMB 14.97; open RMB 15.00 |
| Intraday high / low / amplitude | High RMB 15.44; low RMB 14.55; amplitude 5.95% |
| Volume / turnover | 336,700 lots; turnover RMB 503 million |
| Turnover rate / volume ratio | 4.21%; 0.74 |
| Total / tradable market capitalization | RMB 12.127 billion / RMB 12.106 billion |
| Total / tradable shares | 800 million / 799 million |
| Valuation | Dynamic P/E 24.30x; static P/E 25.33x; TTM P/E 26.49x; P/B 1.52x; TTM P/S 1.30x |
| EPS | Sina figure RMB 0.3117; MarketWatch reports EPS of RMB 0.57 and P/E of 26.49x; the semiannual basis differs and has not been fully reconciled, so use cautiously |
| 52-week high / low | 52-week high approximately RMB 18.05, consistent across sources; 52-week low approximately RMB 11.20–11.40 (Sina RMB 11.20; MarketWatch/Investing.com/CoinDataFlow RMB 11.40; minor source differences; Yahoo’s RMB 10.57 is considered questionable and is not used) |
| Historical high | RMB 26.71 on March 1, 2022 (TradingView) |
| Recent intraday high reference | Approximately RMB 15.92 intraday on September 9 (Sina Securities Hong’an Studio article, reproduced by Sohu on September 9, 2026) |
5.2 Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Brief interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Moving averages (MA5 / MA10 / MA20) | MA5 15.27; MA10 14.96; MA20 14.73 (Jiufang Zhitou, as of September 11) | The close of 15.15 was between MA5 and MA10 and above MA20; short-term moving averages were in a bullish alignment (MA5>MA10>MA20) |
| Moving-average pattern and support | A “golden triangle” of moving averages formed on September 2; lower moving-average support at RMB 14.12 (Jiufang Zhitou) | Short-term moving-average structure was bullish; RMB 14.12 is the moving-average support reference provided by Jiufang |
| MACD | Jiufang: golden cross above the zero line on September 4; MACD approximately 0.11, DIF 0.26 and DEA 0.20; currently in a “strong adjustment,” with attention on whether a death cross develops. Investing.com as of September 4: MACD(12,26)=0.12, rated “Buy” | Both sources indicate a bullish bias, although Jiufang warns of a possible renewed death cross; Sina also labels the setup a “MACD golden-cross buy signal” |
| RSI | RSI golden cross on September 11 and short-term RSI above 50 (Jiufang); Investing.com RSI(14)=55.60 on September 4, rated “Buy” | Neutral-to-strong and not overbought |
| Bollinger Bands | No clear upper or lower band values were obtained for September 11; Eastmoney’s stock commentary only states that BOLL has no clear signal | Data unavailable. MA20 at RMB 14.73 is used below as an approximate middle band, with the chip-cost range as an alternative reference; this is an estimate rather than an official indicator value |
| Chip distribution | Average chip cost RMB 14.55; 70% cost range RMB 13.72–15.49, concentration 6.06%; 90% cost range unavailable because the research record is incomplete | The average chip cost of RMB 14.55 is close to MA20 at RMB 14.73 and can be used as a cost-band reference; the 90% range cannot be provided |
| Period gains (Sina Hong’an methodology; date-dependent and inconsistent across sources) | As of September 9: YTD +23.89%, 5-day +9.04%, 20-day +12.19%, 60-day +14.04%; as of September 8: YTD +18.75%, 5-day +3.25%, 20-day +7.24%; as of September 2: YTD +12.68%, 5-day +2.91%, 20-day -0.96%, 60-day +14.83% | Data from different cutoff dates should not be mixed; they are for trend reference only. The direction was positive YTD, with the overall period trend relatively strong |
| Conflicting data warnings (not used) | MarketWatch shows 1-month -11.56%, 3-month -15.03%, YTD -16.09% and 1-year -21.10%; TradingView shows current price 14.37 and market cap 11.50B; Yahoo shows 12.50 and market cap 10.005B | MarketWatch data clearly contradict Chinese sources and are considered unusable; TradingView and Yahoo do not match the September 11 close of 15.15 and are treated as delayed or methodologically different overseas data |
As of the September 11, 2026 close, Lier Chemical closed at RMB 15.15, up 1.20%, with a 5.95% amplitude, RMB 503 million in turnover, a 4.21% turnover rate and a 0.74 volume ratio. The closing price was between MA5 at 15.27 and MA10 at 14.96 and above MA20 at 14.73, while the short-term moving averages were bullishly aligned. MACD had formed a golden cross above the zero line and was in a “strong adjustment,” while RSI had formed a golden cross and moved above 50. Both Jiufang Zhitou and Investing.com indicated a bullish bias, with the overall technical setup neutral-to-strong and not overbought. The average chip cost of RMB 14.55 and 70% cost range of RMB 13.72–15.49 overlap with the moving-average band and provide a support reference.
In terms of capital flows, after net selling by main funds of RMB 76.4179 million on September 10, net buying on September 11 was RMB 27.0395 million, comprising super-large orders of RMB -17.11 million, large orders of RMB +44.15 million and small orders of RMB -42.25 million. Cumulative net inflow by main funds over the past 10 days was approximately RMB 13.88 million according to Jiufang; summing the nine daily figures gives approximately RMB 5.50 million. The direction is consistent, but the figures depend on the starting point of the statistical window. The specific Bollinger-band values and 90% chip range were unavailable. Period gains and the 52-week low differ across sources. MarketWatch, TradingView and Yahoo data that conflict with or appear delayed relative to domestic sources are not used. These are historical observations and do not guarantee future performance.
5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)
⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective technical scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data. Scenario weights are subjective heuristic weights based on the current technical and capital-flow structure, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and assume their own investment risks.
① Key Technical Levels
| Level | Range | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term resistance | RMB 15.44–15.92 | The lower bound is the September 11 intraday high of RMB 15.44; above it is the approximately RMB 15.92 intraday high on September 9. A valid breakout requires volume support; after a breakout, the RMB 18.05 52-week-high area is the next reference |
| First support | RMB 14.55–14.73 | Formed by the average chip cost of RMB 14.55 and MA20 at RMB 14.73; also near the level below the September 10 close of RMB 14.97. If broken, the next reference is moving-average support at RMB 14.12 after MA10 at RMB 14.96 is lost |
| Strong support | RMB 13.72–14.12 | The lower bound is the lower end of the 70% chip-cost range at RMB 13.72; the upper bound is the RMB 14.12 moving-average support identified by Jiufang. A valid break would point toward the 52-week-low range of RMB 11.20–11.40 |
② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)
- Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 60%; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): The price fluctuates within RMB 14.55–15.44, using MA20 at RMB 14.73 and the average chip cost of RMB 14.55 as support while digesting the large bearish candle on September 10. Trigger conditions: turnover remains around the recent RMB 500 million level, the volume ratio stays near 1, there are no new catalysts, and the agrochemical sector remains stable. The key observations are whether MACD forms another death cross and whether RSI remains above 50.
- Moderate downside (medium weight; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): If the RMB 14.55–14.73 first-support zone is lost on rising turnover, the price could test strong support at RMB 13.72–14.12. If strong support is also decisively broken, the downside toward the RMB 11.20–11.40 52-week-low range would open. Trigger conditions include broad weakness in the agrochemical sector, sustained net selling by main funds—using the RMB 76.4179 million net outflow on September 10 as a reference—or a weaker broader market.
- Stronger rebound (low weight; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): If volume-supported buying pushes the price above RMB 15.44 and it holds there, the price could test the approximately RMB 15.92 September 9 high and potentially open room toward the RMB 18.05 52-week high. Trigger conditions include a significant increase in daily turnover together with consecutive net inflows by main funds, using the RMB 27.0395 million inflow on September 11 as a reference, or a fundamental or industry catalyst.
③ Capital and Liquidity Background
As of September 11, turnover was 4.21%, turnover was RMB 503 million and the volume ratio was 0.74. Recent turnover has varied considerably: RMB 1.13 billion on September 9 with an 8.86% turnover rate, RMB 569 million on September 10 with a 4.7% turnover rate, and RMB 503 million on September 11. This indicates significant fluctuations in trading activity and a clear contraction in short-term volume from the September 9 peak.
Total market capitalization was RMB 12.127 billion, tradable market capitalization RMB 12.106 billion and tradable shares 799 million. The stock is a small- to mid-cap name, and order-book depth may be relatively thin during periods of declining volume, implying comparatively high slippage costs for large transactions. Regarding the shareholder structure, the research materials only state that the top-10 tradable shareholders changed, with Zhang Jun newly entering, Penghua China 50 Mixed and others increasing holdings, and Huashang Upstream Industry Stock A reducing holdings, according to a Sina Finance report on August 28, 2026. This indicates the presence of public-fund institutions among the top 10 tradable shareholders, but complete data on shareholder concentration and aggregate institutional ownership are unavailable. Shareholder data are also subject to disclosure lags and correspond to around August 28; the current structure may have changed.
Using the stock’s own recent trading activity as the benchmark, sustained daily turnover above RMB 800 million, together with a turnover rate above 6%, could be treated as a volume-confirmation signal for capital participation. This references RMB 1.13 billion turnover on September 9 and the recent normal range around RMB 500 million. Conversely, if turnover remains below RMB 500 million and the price falls below RMB 14.55, confirmation of the weaker scenario would increase.
④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)
- Observe whether the RMB 15.44–15.92 short-term resistance range can be decisively broken with volume support and whether the price can hold above it; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
- Observe the first support at RMB 14.55–14.73, where the average chip cost overlaps with MA20, and strong support at RMB 13.72–14.12. If strong support is decisively broken, the RMB 11.20–11.40 52-week-low range is the next reference; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
- Observe whether MACD forms another death cross and whether RSI remains above 50 to assess whether the September “strong adjustment” continues or reverses; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
- Observe the volume-confirmation signal: whether daily turnover can remain above RMB 800 million, whether the turnover rate rises above 6%, and whether main-fund inflows continue after September 11; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
The above scenarios are based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and historical price and technical-indicator calculations. Short-term share prices are also affected by news flow, capital flows, broader market conditions and other factors. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited. The analysis does not guarantee future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and assume their own investment risks.
6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis
6.1 Industry Conditions
Lier Chemical is classified under CSRC C26 Manufacture of Chemical Raw Materials and Chemical Products, specifically C2631 Chemical Pesticide Manufacturing (source: the company’s 2025 interim report). The company mainly researches, produces and sells high-efficiency, low-toxicity and low-residue technical pesticides, including chloropyridines, organophosphorus compounds, sulfonylureas and substituted ureas. It is described as a leading company in glufosinate and chloropyridine herbicides (source: the title of a Jiufang Zhitou report). In 2025, revenue was RMB 9.008 billion, up 23.21% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 479 million, up 122.33%. The research materials do not provide overall market size, growth or concentration data such as CR5 or CR10 for the pesticide industry; the industry-level quantitative overview is therefore incomplete.
6.2 Competitive Landscape
- The company’s product lines cover herbicides, fungicides and insecticides, comprising more than 40 technical products and more than 100 formulations (source: the company’s 2025 annual report), as well as chemical intermediates such as 2-methylpyridine.
- External research describes the company as a “leading enterprise in glufosinate and chloropyridine herbicides” and states that process technology constitutes its core moat (source: Jiufang Zhitou report title).
- The 2025 annual report describes the company as a “major producer of glufosinate and glufosinate-P technicals” (source: the company’s 2025 annual report, reproduced by Securities Star).
- The 20,000-ton-per-year enzymatic glufosinate-P project in Jinshi, Hunan has entered production and is operating normally (sources: Tonghuashun, December 25, 2025, and jsppa.com.cn).
- The December 24, 2025 investor-relations activity record shows that the company hosted research by Huachuang Securities and other institutions. The record stated that the 20,000-ton glufosinate-P project had entered production and that the company was positive on market prospects (source: Sina Finance, December 25, 2025).
- Guosen Securities’ 2025 annual-report review stated that pesticide sales increased significantly and cooperation with major customers continued to deepen.
- The research materials do not provide quantitative data on industry-wide capacity, demand growth or the market shares of major competitors.
6.3 Major Competitors
| Company | Positioning | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Lier Chemical (002258.SZ) | Leading enterprise in glufosinate and chloropyridine herbicides; integrated pesticide technicals, intermediates and formulations, with seven production bases covering the “chemical raw materials–intermediates–technicals–formulations” chain | 2025 revenue RMB 9.008 billion (+23.21% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 479 million (+122.33% YoY); pesticide technicals accounted for 62.45% of revenue with an 18.16% gross margin; pesticide intermediates had a 25.31% gross margin (sources: the company’s 2025 annual report and Jiufang Zhitou report title) |
| No specific peer company mentioned in the research materials | The source list contains a PDF discussing reasons for high customer concentration and differences from peers, but the body discloses no peer names or data | Comparable-company data are unavailable, preventing peer comparison in this report |
| No specific peer company mentioned in the research materials | Data unavailable | The research materials provide no revenue, gross-margin or market-share data for other listed pesticide technical or formulation companies |
The research materials provide no specific comparison between Lier Chemical and peers in revenue scale, gross margin, capacity or market share. Cross-sectional comparison is therefore not possible within the scope of this report. The company’s internal profitability differences can be observed from its 2025 product gross-margin structure: pesticide intermediates 25.31% > chemical materials and others 20.78% > pesticide formulations 19.53% > pesticide technicals 18.16% > agrochemical distribution 8.59%. The company’s relative position versus international and domestic peers lacks verifiable data support and should be assessed separately using the latest annual reports and peer disclosures.
7. Risk Factors
- Uncertainty over the change of control: The transaction under which China Resources Double-Crane will acquire 23.50% at RMB 30.07 per share still requires approval by the state-owned-assets regulator, antitrust merger-control clearance, Shenzhen Stock Exchange compliance confirmation and registration with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation. The shares had not been registered as of the announcement date, and the transaction remained “in progress.” The transfer price represents a premium of approximately 104.42% to the closing price on the signing date and differs significantly from the secondary-market price.
- Direct erosion of profit from foreign-exchange volatility: The company incurred foreign-exchange losses of RMB 62.5474 million in 1H 2026, compared with gains of RMB 8.9148 million in the prior-year period; financial expenses rose 227.35% YoY. International sales accounted for 53.79% of 2025 revenue and are primarily self-operated exports. Another adverse move in RMB/USD could continue to pressure earnings.
- Pressure from canceled export tax rebates and higher raw-material prices: First-half net profit attributable to shareholders fell 7.77% and recurring net profit fell 11.25%. The company cited canceled export tax rebates for certain products and higher raw-material prices. International sales were RMB 4.845 billion in 2025, or 53.79% of revenue, so changes in export policy have a direct and difficult-to-hedge impact on profitability.
- Risk that projects under construction do not progress as expected: Hubei Lituo’s 10,000-ton-per-year glufosinate-P technical project and supporting facilities were delayed due to process optimization, with the completion date to be disclosed separately. Hunan Lier’s L-homoserine project is still under construction and expected to be completed in the second half. The company has explicitly identified glufosinate-P, chlorantraniliprole and prothioconazole projects as sources of 2026 incremental earnings. Delays in commissioning or ramp-up could affect the realization of these incremental earnings.
- Forecast dispersion and target-price timing mismatch: The 2027E EPS forecasts of 13 institutions vary widely; some forecast RMB 1.07 while others forecast RMB 0.84. Most target prices were issued in March–May 2026, when the share price differed from the September 11 price of RMB 15.15. CICC’s August 30 target price of RMB 15.00 implies limited upside and contrasts sharply with the earlier RMB 19.75 target.
- Working-capital and cash-flow quality risk: Net operating cash flow was RMB -35.01 million in 1H 2026, down 110.99% YoY. The research materials do not provide receivables-to-revenue or receivables-to-profit ratios, receivables turnover days, or top-five customer and supplier concentration. Customer concentration and working-capital occupation cannot be quantitatively verified. If downstream collections or channel inventories fluctuate, cash-flow pressure could increase.
- Short-term technical and capital-flow volatility: As of September 11, turnover had fallen from RMB 1.13 billion on September 9 to RMB 503 million, with a 0.74 volume ratio. Main funds recorded net selling of RMB 76.4179 million on September 10. Short-term resistance is RMB 15.44–15.92; first support is RMB 14.55–14.73; strong support is RMB 13.72–14.12. A high-volume break below strong support would point toward the RMB 11.20–11.40 52-week-low range.
- Policy-change risk: The “one product, one license” policy was expected to be fully implemented in mid-2026. The company said it would closely monitor and actively address the change. The policy affects pesticide registration and product-market structure and may influence the company’s more than 40 technical products and more than 100 formulations. The impact has not yet been quantified.
8. Conclusion and Outlook
The company’s growth thesis is supported by its position as a leading glufosinate and chloropyridine herbicide producer, its relatively complete “chemical raw materials–intermediates–technicals–formulations” chain, and its seven-production-base footprint. Vertical integration and in-house production of certain intermediates provide a foundation for cost control and supply security. In 2025, pesticide technical revenue rose 37.16% and international sales rose 40.98%, indicating a meaningful position in the global agrochemical supply chain. Second-quarter 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders rose 14.44% YoY and improved sequentially. Together with consensus 2026–28 net profit forecasts of RMB 615.3 million, RMB 754.3 million and RMB 871.2 million, this implies a gradual earnings-recovery scenario. If China Resources Double-Crane ultimately completes the acquisition, the company may gain new support in shareholder resources, capital operations and synthetic-biology coordination. However, the transaction had not been registered as of the data cutoff, and its actual impact cannot yet be verified.
Uncertainties and risks remain substantial. First-half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders fell 7.77%, recurring net profit fell 11.25%, net operating cash flow was RMB -35.01 million and financial expenses rose 227.35%, demonstrating high sensitivity to exchange rates, export tax policy and raw-material prices. Institutional forecasts also show substantial dispersion for 2027E and 2028E, including 2027E EPS estimates ranging from RMB 0.84 to RMB 1.07. Consensus estimates do not reflect every risk scenario. At approximately 26.49x TTM P/E and 1.52x P/B, valuation is not low on an absolute basis. CICC’s RMB 15.00 target price implies only approximately 1.6% upside, substantially below Guotai Haitong’s RMB 19.75 target, indicating disagreement over the pace of earnings recovery. Technically, main funds recorded net selling of RMB 76.4179 million on September 10, while turnover declined from RMB 1.13 billion on September 9 to RMB 503 million, leaving room for renewed short-term volatility.
By product, the gross-margin structure is pesticide intermediates 25.31% > chemical materials and others 20.78% > pesticide formulations 19.53% > pesticide technicals 18.16% > agrochemical distribution 8.59%. If capacity expansion for glufosinate-P and the chlorantraniliprole and prothioconazole projects contributes as scheduled, the product mix could shift toward higher-margin businesses. However, Hubei Lituo’s 10,000-ton-per-year glufosinate-P technical project and supporting facilities were delayed due to process optimization, with the completion date to be disclosed separately. The pace of earnings improvement will therefore depend directly on the execution of projects under construction. Overall, confirmation of the earnings-recovery path depends on the fading of foreign-exchange headwinds in 2H 2026, improvement in glufosinate prices—the company stated that demand is strong and prices may improve further—and the actual commissioning and ramp-up of operating and under-construction projects. The key monitoring points are subsequent periodic reports and announcements.
Data Sources
- 002258 Stock Price and Chart — SZSE:002258 — TradingView — India - Market capitalization
- Lier Chemical (002258) Main Funds Sold Net RMB 76.4179 Million on September 10 — Securities Star
- 002258 Stock Price | Lier Chemical Co. Ltd. Stock Quote (China: Shenzhen) | MarketWatch
- Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd.
- 002258 Lier Chemical
- 002258 Lier Chemical - Principal Activities
- Lier Chemical (002258): Business Analysis — PC_HSF10
- Lier Chemical (002258) — Zhinan Zhenxing
- Lier Chemical (002258): Leading Glufosinate and Chloropyridine Herbicide Enterprise; Process Technology Builds Core Moat — Jiufang Zhitou
- Lier Chemical (002258) 2025 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis
- Lier Chemical: Continuing to Optimize Existing Products and Accelerating New-Product R&D and Commercialization
- Chinese Stock Operating Analysis — Lier Chemical — June 30, 2025 — Tonghuashun
- Lier Chemical: 2025 Annual Report — Pesticides and Intermediates
- Lier Chemical (sz002258)
- Research Update: Lier Chemical Accepts Research from Huachuang Securities; 20,000-ton Glufosinate-P Project Operational
- Lier Chemical: Investor Relations Management Information, December 24, 2025
- From Glufosinate Leader to Multi-Category Platform: Review of Lier Chemical’s Q1 Report
- From Glufosinate Leader to Multi-Category Platform: Review of Lier Chemical’s Q1 Report
- Lier Chemical (002258): Strong YoY Growth; Positive Outlook
- Lier Chemical: 2025 Annual Report — Major Glufosinate and Glufosinate-P Technical Producer
- Lier Chemical: 20,000-ton-per-year Enzymatic Glufosinate-P Project Operating Normally
- Lier Chemical (002258): Higher Production and Sales Volumes Drive Revenue Growth; Glufosinate-P Project Progressing
- Strong YoY Earnings Growth; Positive Outlook
- Lier Chemical: Hunan Jinshi 20,000-ton-per-year Enzymatic Glufosinate-P Project in Production
- Lier Chemical Convertible Bond 2021 Tracking Rating Report
- Chinese Stock Investor Relations Platform Q&A — Lier Chemical — September 16, 2021
- Lier Chemical — 0.88 1.04 0.74
- Lier Chemical — Changes in Consolidation Scope
- Lier Chemical (002258) Principal Business Analysis
- Financial Statement Analysis of Lier Chemical under the Harvard Analysis Framework
- Reasons for High Customer Concentration and Differences from Peers
- Lier Chemical (002258) Principal Business Analysis — Chagu
- Lier Chemical: 2024 Annual Report
- Guosen Securities: 2025 Annual-Report Review — Pesticide Sales Increased Significantly
- Lier Chemical Income Statement — Yahoo Finance
- Lier Chemical Financial Summary — Investing.com
- Lier Chemical Income Statement — Investing.com
- Lier Chemical Financial Summary — Investing.com
- Lier Chemical Overview — FinScope
- LIER CHEM (002258.SZ)
- Lier Chemical — MarketScreener
- Lier Chemical 1H 2026 Interim Report: Net Profit RMB 250 Million, Down 7.77%
- Lier Chemical 1H 2026: Higher Revenue but Lower Profit
- Lier Chemical: Sequential Improvement; Key Projects to Come on Stream
- Lier Chemical 1H Revenue RMB 4.816 Billion, Up 6.86%
- Lier Chemical 1H 2026 Net Profit RMB 250 Million, Down 7.77%
- Lier Chemical: 1H 2026 Net Profit RMB 250 Million, Down 7.77%
- Lier Chemical: 1H Net Profit RMB 250 Million, Down 7.77%
- Lier Chemical: 1H Revenue Up 6.86%
- Lier Chemical: 2026 Interim Report Summary
- Product Sales Could Not Offset Foreign-Exchange Losses
- Lier Chemical First Coverage: 2025 Earnings Rebounded
- Lier Chemical Overview — FinScope
- Institutional Ratings — Sina Finance
- Dongxing Securities Gives Lier Chemical a Strongly Recommended Rating
- CICC Gives Lier Chemical an Outperform Rating
- Lier Chemical: Glufosinate Supply-Demand Improvement
- CITIC Securities Gives Lier Chemical a Buy Rating
- BOC International Gives Lier Chemical a Buy Rating
- Guotai Haitong Gives Lier Chemical an Outperform Rating
- Research Report Metrics — Securities Star
- Q1 Earnings Under Pressure; Subsector Leader Has Good Prospects
- Lier Chemical Rises 10.02%
- Lier Chemical: Glufosinate Supply-Demand Improvement
- Lier Chemical: Q1 Earnings Under Pressure
- Lier Chemical Institutional Ratings
- 002258 Lier Chemical — Earnings Forecast
- Lier Chemical Earnings Forecast — PC_HSF10
- Investment Ratings — Securities Star
- Popular Comments
- Shenzhen Market Announcement Reminder — Lier Chemical
- Resolution of the Seventh Board of Directors’ Sixth Meeting
- Lier Chemical: Resolution Announcement
- Lier Chemical: Glufosinate Prices May Improve
- Lier Chemical: Detailed Equity-Change Report
- Lier Chemical Share Transfer
- China Securities Journal: Share-Transfer Agreement Reminder Announcement
- China Resources Double-Crane to Acquire 23.50% of Lier Chemical
- China Resources Double-Crane’s RMB 5.656 Billion Acquisition
- Lier Chemical: Transfer Progress Announcement
- China Securities Journal: Transfer Progress Announcement
- Lier Chemical Transfer Progress
- Lier Chemical
- China Resources Double-Crane Ranks First in Public Bidding
- 002258: Major Change-of-Control News
- China Resources Double-Crane May Take Over 23.5% of Lier Chemical
- China Resources Double-Crane to Promote Synthetic-Biology Technology
- China Resources Double-Crane Announcement on Participation in Public Bidding
- Earnings Guidance Data Center
- Lier Chemical: 2025 Earnings Guidance
- Lier Chemical Earnings Forecast
- Lier Chemical: 1Q 2026 Net Profit Approximately RMB 115 Million
- Lier Chemical: 2026 Incremental Earnings from Glufosinate-P, Chlorantraniliprole and Prothioconazole
- Lier Chemical: 2025 Earnings Expected to Increase 122%
- Lier Chemical: Glufosinate Supply-Demand Improvement; 2Q26 Growth Returns
- Chinese Stock Investor-Relations Activity Record — April 10, 2026
- Lier Chemical Investor-Relations Management Information
- Lier Chemical: 2026 Incremental Earnings from Key Projects
- Dacheng State-Owned Enterprise Reform Fund
- Lier Chemical Overview
- Concept Details — Tonghuashun
- 002654 Wanrun Technology
- Market Quote
- Lier Chemical Stock Price — MarketWatch
- Lier Chemical RMB 15.15, Up 1.20% — Jiufang Zhitou
- Lier Chemical 002258.SZ — CoinDataFlow
- Lier Chemical Stock Price — Sina Finance
- Tonghuashun Industry Details
- Lier Chemical — Yahoo Finance
- Lier Chemical Rises 2.38%; Main-Fund Net Inflow RMB 8.6516 Million
- Lier Chemical September 9 Main-Fund Net Buying
- Lier Chemical Capital Flows — Eastmoney
- Lier Chemical Rises 2.01%
- Lier Chemical Market Data — Jiufang Zhitou
- Lier Chemical Falls 2.03%
- Lier Chemical September 1 Main-Fund Net Buying
- Lier Chemical Intraday Changes — Eastmoney
- Lier Chemical Latest Price — Eastmoney
- Lier Chemical Interactive Chart — Investing.com
- Lier Chemical Technical Analysis — Investing.com
- Lier Chemical Technical Chart — AAStocks
- Lier Chemical A Technical Analysis — Investing.com UK
- Lier Chemical Stock Commentary — Eastmoney
- Technical Analysis of Lier Chemical Class A — TradingView
- Technical Analysis of Lier Chemical Class A — TradingView
- Lier Chemical — Sina Finance
- Lier Chemical Shareholders — China Financial Information
- Lier Chemical Top 10 Tradable Shareholders Change
- Lier Chemical Tradable Shareholders — Sohu
- Lier Chemical Top Shareholders
- Lier Chemical Major Shareholders — Two-Year Record
- Lier Chemical Major Shareholders
- Lier Chemical Shareholders — Qixin
- Lier Chemical Top 10 Shareholders — Eastmoney
- Lier Chemical Top 10 Tradable Shareholders — Dasanhu
- Lier Chemical Top 10 Shareholders
This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. The information is current through the September 11, 2026 close, which multiple Chinese sources consistently identify as the latest complete trading day; the post-close capital-flow page was updated at 16:05 on September 11, 2026. If the actual writing date is later than September 11, the data should be refreshed. Timing differences may exist. Specific data should be verified against the company’s formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information organization and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and assume their own investment risks.
Fair-value range, DCF / industry models, comparable-company checks, confidence and key assumptions