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| Close | 40.94 (-2.99% on the day; -7.44% over 5 sessions; +18.49% over 20 sessions) |
|---|---|
| Market cap | CNY 69.58 billion |
| P/E (TTM) | 321.23x (91th percentile over 5.2 years) |
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As of the 2026-09-30 close; calculated from daily price data (adjusted prices) and refreshed automatically each trading day. The one-week range reflects historical volatility only and is not a forecast. The report below was written on 2026-09-13; its prices and short-term scenarios reflect data at that time.
Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co., Ltd. (Xingsen Technology) (002436)
Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Electronics—Components—Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Closing price of September 11, 2026 (Friday) (latest trading day); all prices/indicators below are based on that day's closing unless otherwise noted
This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.
1. Core Summary
As of the 2026 interim report, Xingsen Technology achieved operating revenue of RMB 4.038 billion, up 17.86% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to parent of RMB 111 million, up 283.27% year-on-year, of which Q2 2026 net profit attributable to parent was RMB 92 million, up 371.53% year-on-year, with performance in a stage of clear recovery and accelerating improvement. Growth mainly came from the semiconductor business: first-half revenue of approximately RMB 1.329 billion, up approximately 59.9% year-on-year, of which IC packaging substrate revenue was RMB 1.209 billion, up 67.34% year-on-year, with gross margin narrowing from a substantial loss to -0.36%; however, this business has not yet truly achieved stable profitability, and profit improvement remains in the stage of capacity utilization enhancement and project ramp-up.
The company has formed a diversified business structure of "PCB prototype and small-batch business + IC packaging substrate + semiconductor test board." In the first half of 2026, PCB business revenue was RMB 2.503 billion, accounting for 61.98%, with a gross margin of 25.56%, remaining the revenue and operating foundation; IC packaging substrate accounted for 29.94%, having become the main growth source; semiconductor test board gross margin was 23.48%. PCB business customers are relatively dispersed and possess small-batch, rapid-delivery stickiness, while IC packaging substrate and test board customers are highly concentrated, with future profit elasticity depending on the volume ramp-up and scale effects of high-end carriers such as FCBGA and CSP.
The company is advancing high-order mSAP and packaging substrate capacity expansion, with a proposed private placement to raise no more than RMB 3.9 billion, respectively invested in the high-order mSAP substrate project, CSP packaging substrate project, and to supplement working capital and repay bank loans, but the plan still requires shareholder meeting, exchange review, and registration procedures. The capacity expansion helps capture high-speed optical module, storage, and semiconductor-related demand, while also meaning that capital expenditure, depreciation, financing, and working capital pressures will persist. In the first half of 2026, net cash flow from operating activities was approximately -RMB 247 million, and the debt-to-asset ratio is at a relatively high level.
As of September 11, 2026, the company's stock closed at RMB 39.33, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 66.848 billion; short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment but high-level turnover rate is close to 10%, and capital divergence has increased since September 9. In terms of valuation, static PE is approximately 495x, TTM PE approximately 308.6x, PB approximately 11.9x; market pricing has already fully reflected FCBGA domestic substitution and AI and storage industry chain expansion expectations, with significant uncertainty regarding future performance realization speed and valuation digestion.
2. Company Overview
2.1 Basic Information
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Stock Code/Abbreviation | 002436.SZ Xingsen Technology |
| Full Company Name | Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co Ltd |
| Listing Information | Shenzhen Stock Exchange (002 prefix, SZSE Main Board/formerly SME Board); listing date 2010-06-18, issue price RMB 36.50, issued 27.93 million shares; incorporation date 1999-03-18 |
| Registered Capital/Total Shares | Approximately RMB 1.700 billion / 1.700 billion shares (approximately 1.510 billion shares in circulation, approximately 189 million shares restricted, source: cfi.cn quotedx.cfi.cn) |
| Actual Controller/Chairman | Qiu Xingya (natural person, private background); Board Secretary Jiang Wei |
| Registered and Office Address | Shenzhen Bay Technology and Ecology Park, Nanshan District, Shenzhen |
| Industry | Electronics—Components—Printed Circuit Boards (CSRC classification: "Computer, Communication and Other Electronic Equipment Manufacturing") |
| Number of Employees | 7,761 (Morningstar company profile); another Sohu snapshot shows 7,920, the two data points are inconsistent, subject to the latest annual report |
| Data Cut-off | Financial data primarily based on the 2026 interim report (2026-06-30, disclosed 2026-08-21), also includes FY2025 annual report (2025-12-31, disclosed 2026-04-25); retrieval execution time approximately September 2026 |
2.2 Main Business and Product Layout
- PCB printed circuit board business: 2026H1 revenue RMB 2.503 billion, accounting for 61.98%, gross margin 25.56% (year-on-year -0.76pct); FY2025 revenue RMB 4.897 billion, accounting for 68.07%, gross margin 25.26% (-1.70pct). Products include traditional high-multilayer PCB boards, rigid-flex boards, HDI (including Anylayer HDI), substrate-like PCB (SLP)
- IC packaging substrate business (semiconductor): 2026H1 revenue RMB 1.209 billion, accounting for 29.94%, year-on-year +67.34%, gross margin -0.36% (basically turning positive, significantly improved year-on-year); FY2025 revenue RMB 1.670 billion, accounting for 23.22%, gross margin -16.06% (dragged down by FCBGA not yet in mass production). Products include CSP packaging substrate/BT carrier and FCBGA/ABF carrier
- Semiconductor test board business: 2026H1 revenue RMB 120 million, accounting for 2.97%, gross margin 23.48%; FY2025 revenue RMB 239 million, accounting for 3.33%, gross margin 38.03%. Products include ATE semiconductor test boards
- Other businesses: 2026H1 revenue RMB 206 million, accounting for 5.11%, gross margin 88.52%; FY2025 revenue RMB 388 million, accounting for 5.39%, gross margin 89.77%
- Military products business: PCB quick-turn prototypes + military solid-state storage (including aerospace, military high-reliability PCB production qualifications)
- By region: 2026H1 domestic RMB 2.191 billion (54.27%) / overseas RMB 1.846 billion (45.73%); FY2025 domestic RMB 3.919 billion (gross margin 13.90%) / overseas RMB 3.276 billion (gross margin 26.35%, overseas more profitable)
- Major production/business subsidiaries (2026H1): Yixing Silicon Valley (small-batch boards, revenue RMB 363 million, turned profitable), Fineline (European PCB business, revenue RMB 1.053 billion, net profit RMB 101 million), Beijing Xingfei (formerly Beijing Ibiden, HDI/substrate-like PCB, revenue RMB 528 million, net profit RMB 47 million, year-on-year -45%); also Guangzhou Xingke Semiconductor, Zhuhai Xingke, Guangzhou Xingsen Semiconductor (carrier base)
2.3 Industry Chain Upstream/Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure
Xingsen Technology is essentially in the "midstream electronic circuit manufacturing" segment, laying out three main lines along the printed circuit board (PCB) industry chain (PCB business, semiconductor business including IC packaging substrate and semiconductor test board, military products business). The company positions itself as a "global advanced electronic circuit solution digital manufacturing provider," with processes covering Tenting subtractive method, mSAP modified semi-additive method, SAP semi-additive method, capable of providing customers with "R&D—design—manufacturing—SMT assembly" one-stop service, with PCB order variety averaging approximately 25,000 types/month. Upstream costs are driven by copper/gold/oil prices and other commodities, with weak bargaining power (price-taker); downstream PCB prototype customers are relatively dispersed and sticky, while IC carrier and test board customers are highly concentrated and suppressed by major customers.
- Direct materials account for a high proportion of production costs: company statement "report period average approximately 63.02%" (2020 investor interaction); 2021/2022 tracking rating reports both state direct material cost proportion "exceeds 60%"
- Main raw materials: copper clad laminate (CCL), prepreg, gold salt, chemical solutions, copper foil, copper balls, dry film, ink
- Raw material procurement cost structure (credit rating report): 2021 copper clad laminate 33.30%, chemical solutions 12.50%, prepreg 10.02%, gold salt 11.90%; 2022 copper clad laminate 32.22%, prepreg 13.32% (remaining items single-source, fields truncated, mapping uncertain, cite with caution)
- Cost transmission logic: copper clad laminate mainly affected by copper prices, prepreg by oil prices, gold salt by gold prices. Board Secretary statement (2023-04-07): copper foil accounts for copper clad laminate cost, approximately 30% for thin boards, approximately 50% for thick boards; copper clad laminate accounts for approximately 20%-40% of PCB production costs, so copper prices affect total PCB costs by approximately 6%-20%
- Low supplier concentration (dispersed procurement characteristics): top five suppliers procurement proportion 2021 20.14%, 2022 17.59%, 2025 20.27% (2025 procurement RMB 1.153 billion)
- Key external variables (industry article, October 2025): copper prices at highs, fiberglass cloth +12% year-on-year, gold salt average price +36.57% year-on-year, upstream price increases putting significant cost pressure on the PCB industry, with midstream manufacturing squeezed between "raw material price increases and customer price pressure"
- A self-media source claims 2025H1 company overall gross margin "declined 7.4pct year-on-year to 15.9%" (jiehaopcb.com), clearly conflicting with Changjiang Securities research report (2025H1 gross margin 18.45%, year-on-year +1.9pct); Changjiang Securities is a licensed institution research report, more credible, the 15.9% claim not adopted, marked as questionable
- End applications: communication equipment, consumer electronics, industrial control, medical electronics, servers, rail transit, computer applications, semiconductors; during the reporting period focused on expanding high-end optical modules, millimeter-wave communications, AI hardware
- Company overall top five customer concentration (official financial reports/rating reports): 2024 total RMB 1.490 billion, accounting for 25.62% (Customer 1 12.41%); 2025 total RMB 1.964 billion, accounting for 27.29% (Customer 1 13.06%, Customer 2 7.68%), overall relatively dispersed
- PCB production segment top five customers: 2023 21.73%; 2020 12.04% (company states "downstream customers relatively dispersed, not dependent on a single industry or customer")
- IC packaging substrate top five customers: 2023 48.48%, 2024 53.54%, clearly concentrated, corresponding to storage/packaging testing major customers
- Semiconductor test board top five customers: 2023 36.29%, 2024 51.83% (and after selling US subsidiary HARBOR in 2023, scale shrank and concentration increased)
- Settlement/payment terms: overseas and trade business mainly telegraphic transfer, payment terms generally monthly settlement 30-90 days
- Structural bargaining dynamics: PCB prototype/small-batch business customers dispersed, company has rapid prototyping stickiness and relative pricing power (prototype/small-batch gross margin long-term higher than volume boards); while IC carrier and test boards face large storage/packaging testing/computing customers, high concentration, long certification cycles (1-3 years), belonging to a "high barrier but suppressed by major customers" pattern
- Specific major customer names (Huawei, ZTE, Inspur, BYD, Tesla, DJI, Changxin Memory, Yangtze Memory, Samsung, SK Hynix, etc.) and "Huawei strategic partner for over ten years" only appear in brokerage CLS interaction summaries and retail/self-media compilations, not named in annual reports, single source, not cross-verified, please refer to the latest annual report "Major Customers" section
- Available working capital occupation signals limited, need caution: 2026H1 net cash flow from operating activities negative (approximately -RMB 247 million, Sohu/Huaxi F10 source), indicating a stage of heavy asset investment/capacity ramp-up, working capital under pressure; accounts receivable turnover days (DSO), prepayment/accounts payable aging and other specific working capital indicators not obtained with reliable, cross-verifiable official figures in this retrieval, temporarily not cited. Additionally, related-party transactions in "other receivables" are relatively large (at end-2025 top five other receivables all related-party transactions, first place RMB 727 million, accounting for 29.33%), suggesting active intra-group fund flows—this item is based on audit report criteria, but its meaning differs from accounts receivable, do not confuse.
- Customer concentration shows structural divergence: company overall top five customers 2025 total RMB 1.964 billion, accounting for 27.29% (2024 RMB 1.490 billion, accounting for 25.62%), overall relatively dispersed; PCB production segment top five customers 2023 21.73%, 2020 12.04%, dispersed and not dependent on a single customer; IC packaging substrate top five customers 2023 48.48%, 2024 53.54%, semiconductor test board 2023 36.29%, 2024 51.83%, both clearly concentrated. Supplier side concentration low, top five suppliers procurement proportion 2021 20.14%, 2022 17.59%, 2025 20.27%. The above concentration data sources are official financial reports/rating reports (with year annotations); of which 2024 company overall Customer 1 proportion 12.41%, 2025 Customer 1 13.06% and other information subject to the annual report "Major Customers" section.
| Year | Gross Margin | Net Margin | Brief Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024H1 | PCB 27.09%; Semiconductor -33.19% | Data missing (research notes did not provide overall net margin for this period) | Semiconductor business gross margin -33%, dragged down by storage destocking + Zhuhai Xingke CSP capacity ramp-up + FCBGA high labor/depreciation/material costs |
| 2025H1 | PCB 26.32%; Semiconductor -16.78%; of which IC packaging substrate -25.17% | Data missing (research notes did not provide overall net margin for this period) | PCB gross margin declined from 2024H1's 27.09%, mainly due to upstream copper/copper clad laminate/gold salt price increases + mobile phone industry off-season, company's cost transmission ability limited; semiconductor narrowed with storage recovery, CSP capacity utilization and price improvement |
| 2025FY | PCB 25.26%; Semiconductor -9.28%; of which IC packaging substrate -16.06%, test board 38.03% | Net profit RMB 135 million (revenue approximately RMB 7.195 billion, research notes did not provide clear overall net margin figure) | PCB gross margin fell to 25.26%, cost pressure continued; IC packaging substrate -16.06%, company states main reason "FCBGA packaging substrate project not yet in mass production, large labor, depreciation, energy, material inputs," a heavy-asset ramp-up characteristic of "not yet mass-produced → high depreciation amortization costs" |
| 2026H1 | PCB 25.56%; Semiconductor +1.79%; of which IC packaging substrate -0.36%, test board 23.48% | Net profit attributable to parent RMB 111 million, revenue RMB 4.038 billion (year-on-year +17.86%, net profit attributable to parent year-on-year +283.27%); research notes did not provide clear overall net margin figure | IC packaging substrate gross margin basically turned positive (-0.36%), semiconductor overall turned positive +1.79%; test board gross margin high but 2026H1 fell to 23.48%, suggesting product mix/batch rhythm fluctuations; Beijing Xingfei 2026H1 net profit year-on-year -45%, listed as "raw material price increases leading to increased costs" |
Xingsen Technology is essentially "midstream electronic circuit manufacturing"—upstream driven by copper/gold/oil prices, weak bargaining power (direct material cost proportion exceeds 60%, top five suppliers procurement proportion approximately 20%), downstream PCB prototype end relatively dispersed with stickiness, carrier/test board end suppressed by highly concentrated major customers (IC packaging substrate top five customers 2024 53.54%); the company's core profit leverage is not in traditional PCB (stable cash flow in the 18%-25% gross margin range), but in the product structure upgrade and scale effects brought by high-end product volume ramp-up such as IC packaging substrate/FCBGA carrier—with FCBGA mass production, CSP capacity utilization and price improvement, semiconductor business gross margin narrowed from 2024H1's -33.19% to 2026H1's +1.79%, which is the source of the company's medium-to-long-term performance elasticity.
3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis
3.1 Recent Operating Performance
| Reporting Period | Operating Revenue | Year-on-Year | Net Profit Attributable to Parent | Year-on-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | RMB 5.817 billion | +8.53% | -RMB 198 million | -193.88% (from profit to loss) |
| FY2025 | RMB 7.1946 billion (precise value RMB 7,194,624,804.67) | +23.68% | RMB 134.9 million (attributable to parent, precise value RMB 134,946,022.66) | +168.05% (turned positive, prior year -RMB 198 million) |
| 2026Q1 | RMB 1.818 billion | +15.10% | RMB 19 million (attributable to parent) | +100.00% |
| 1H26 | RMB 4.038 billion | +17.86% | RMB 111 million (attributable to parent) | +283.27% |
| 2026Q2 (single quarter) | RMB 2.220 billion | +20.23% (quarter-on-quarter +22.08%) | RMB 92 million (attributable to parent) | +371.53% (quarter-on-quarter +389.54%) |
Data source: FY2024, FY2025, 1H26, 2026Q1, 2026Q2 data from Securities Times, Stockstar, Jiemian News, China Securities Journal, China Fund News and brokerage research reports (AVIC Securities 2026-06-06, Kaiyuan Securities 2026-08-24, SPDB International 2026-08-25/27), cross-verified across multiple sources. Latest financial report is the 2026 interim report (2026-06-30, announcement date approximately 2026-08); FY2025 annual report announcement date 2026-04-24/25, audited. Basis note: eastmoney individual stock page shows 2026 interim "net profit -5.596 million" (including minority interest basis), inconsistent with the statement "net profit attributable to parent +RMB 111 million," the difference comes from minority interest (attributable to parent = net profit - minority interest), cite must specify basis, do not mix. 1H26 non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent RMB 125 million (year-on-year +166.9%), comprehensive gross margin 20.95% (year-on-year +2.5pct); 2026Q2 single quarter gross margin 22.41% (year-on-year +2.88pct, quarter-on-quarter +3.24pct); 2026Q1 gross margin 19.17% (year-on-year +1.98pct), net margin -2.52%; FY2025 non-GAAP attributable to parent RMB 141.0 million (year-on-year +172.03%), gross margin 19.57% (year-on-year +3.70pct), net margin -1.45% (year-on-year +7.68pct), diluted EPS RMB 0.08, ROE 2.52%, debt-to-asset ratio 61.92%, R&D investment RMB 481 million (+8.86%), R&D proportion 6.69%, dividend plan RMB 0.30 per 10 shares (tax included). 1H26 by business: PCB revenue RMB 2.503 billion (year-on-year +2.23%, proportion 62.0%, gross margin 25.56%); semiconductor business revenue RMB 1.329 billion (year-on-year approximately +59.9%, proportion 32.9%), of which IC packaging substrate RMB 1.209 billion (year-on-year +67.34%, gross margin -0.36%, year-on-year +24.81pct), semiconductor test board RMB 120.0 million (year-on-year +10.53%); other revenue RMB 206.3 million (proportion 5.11%, gross margin 88.52%); by region: domestic RMB 2.191 billion, overseas RMB 1.846 billion. FY2025 by business: PCB revenue RMB 4.897 billion (+13.89%, gross margin 25.26%, -1.70pct); semiconductor revenue RMB 1.910 billion (+48.62%, gross margin -9.28%, +23.88pct); IC packaging substrate RMB 1.670 billion (+49.71%, gross margin -16.06%); semiconductor test board RMB 239 million (+41.45%). Loss-making entities reduced losses/turned profitable: Yixing Silicon Valley net profit RMB 8.1198 million (year-on-year +109.9%) turned profitable, Zhuhai Xingke and other entities also turned profitable.
The company's performance is in a loss-reduction improvement channel: FY2024 net profit attributable to parent -RMB 198 million from profit to loss, FY2025 net profit attributable to parent turned positive to RMB 135 million (year-on-year +168.05%), 1H26 net profit attributable to parent RMB 111 million (year-on-year +283.27%), 2026Q2 single quarter net profit attributable to parent RMB 92 million (year-on-year +371.53%, quarter-on-quarter +389.54%), profit side improvement significant and accelerating quarterly. Growth mainly driven by semiconductor business, 1H26 semiconductor revenue year-on-year approximately +59.9%, of which IC packaging substrate revenue year-on-year +67.34%, but IC packaging substrate gross margin still -0.36% (year-on-year +24.81pct, not yet turned positive, mainly due to FCBGA not yet in large-scale mass production); PCB business 1H26 revenue year-on-year only +2.23%, gross margin 25.56% (year-on-year approximately -0.8pct), relatively stable. Loss-making entities reducing losses/turning profitable (Yixing Silicon Valley turned profitable, Zhuhai Xingke etc. also turned profitable) and comprehensive gross margin improvement (1H26 year-on-year +2.5pct) are the main sources of profit elasticity. Note: company overall profit volume still small (FY2025 attributable to parent only RMB 135 million), IC packaging substrate business not yet profitable, performance realization highly dependent on FCBGA volume ramp-up rhythm; additionally on basis, eastmoney shows 2026 interim including minority interest net profit -RMB 5.596 million, opposite direction to net profit attributable to parent positive RMB 111 million, reflecting loss-making subsidiaries (FCBGA etc.) share borne by minority shareholders, when comparing valuation should uniformly use net profit attributable to parent basis.
3.2 Profit Forecast
Forecast source is single brokerage research report, not multi-institution consensus, institutional divergence extremely large, cite must specify institution. SPDB International (2026-08-25/27, Chen Yaobo, Su Cong, rating Buy, target price RMB 61): 2026/2027/2028 net profit attributable to parent RMB 320/870/1,140 million, EPS RMB 0.19/0.51/0.67, net assets per share RMB 3.1/3.6/4.2, valuation using 2028 14.7x PB; report date closing price RMB 35.78, implied upside labeled 70%~84% (differences between sources). Kaiyuan Securities (2026-08-24, Chen Rongfang, Liu Qi, rating Buy, no target price given): 2026/2027/2028 net profit attributable to parent RMB 516/1,408/2,021 million (original values RMB 439/583 million, this time raised), EPS RMB 0.30/0.83/1.19, corresponding to report date stock price RMB 33.31 PE 116.5/42.7/29.7x. AVIC Securities (2026-06-06, Liang Chen et al., rating Buy): 2026/2027/2028 operating revenue RMB 8.651/10.514/12.892 billion, net profit attributable to parent RMB 396/669/1,078 million, EPS RMB 0.23/0.39/0.63, based on 2026-04-29 closing price RMB 27.46 PE 119/70/44x. Tonghuashun "Performance Forecast" page (data as of 2026-03-09, relatively old, for comparison): 10 institutions forecast 2025 EPS RMB 0.10/net profit RMB 169 million (actual disclosed RMB 0.08/RMB 135 million, higher); 2026 net profit average RMB 400 million (range RMB 287~530 million), EPS average RMB 0.24 (range 0.17~0.31); 2027 net profit average RMB 760 million (range RMB 615~927 million), EPS average RMB 0.45 (range 0.36~0.55). eastmoney consensus (based on 2026 interim update): EPS growth 26E/27E/28E=208.10%/91.96%/53.11%; revenue growth 26E/27E/28E=24.14%/23.48%/22.62%. Earlier historical forecasts (already raised, for comparison): Great Wall Securities 2025-11-19 forecast 2025-2027 attributable to parent RMB 161/329/696 million; Kaiyuan Securities 2025-10-31 forecast 2025-2027 attributable to parent RMB 251/530/725 million; Guotou Securities 2025-10-31 forecast 2025-2027 revenue RMB 7.155/8.944/11.27 billion, attributable to parent RMB 185/438/868 million, target price approximately RMB 25.2 (original text truncated). Key uncertainty: 2026 net profit attributable to parent forecast from RMB 320 million (SPDB) to RMB 516 million (Kaiyuan), 2027 from RMB 669 million (AVIC) to RMB 1,408 million (Kaiyuan), 2028 from RMB 1,078 million to RMB 2,021 million, divergence nearly 2x; main variables are FCBGA packaging substrate volume ramp-up rhythm and high-multilayer PCB (Yixing Silicon Valley) profit recovery speed.
| Year | Operating Revenue | Net Profit Attributable to Parent | Net Profit Growth | Earnings Per Share (EPS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | RMB 8.651 billion (AVIC Securities forecast) | SPDB International RMB 320 million / Kaiyuan Securities RMB 516 million / AVIC Securities RMB 396 million | Kaiyuan Securities original value RMB 439 million, this time raised to RMB 516 million; institutional divergence significant | SPDB International RMB 0.19 / Kaiyuan Securities RMB 0.30 / AVIC Securities RMB 0.23 |
| 2027E | RMB 10.514 billion (AVIC Securities forecast) | SPDB International RMB 870 million / Kaiyuan Securities RMB 1,408 million / AVIC Securities RMB 669 million | Institutional divergence nearly 2x | SPDB International RMB 0.51 / Kaiyuan Securities RMB 0.83 / AVIC Securities RMB 0.39 |
| 2028E | RMB 12.892 billion (AVIC Securities forecast) | SPDB International RMB 1,140 million / Kaiyuan Securities RMB 2,021 million / AVIC Securities RMB 1,078 million | Institutional divergence significant | SPDB International RMB 0.67 / Kaiyuan Securities RMB 1.19 / AVIC Securities RMB 0.63 |
3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings
| Institution | Rating | Date | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPDB International | Buy | 2026-08-25/27 | Target price RMB 61, the only institution in the retrieved recent period that gave a specific target price, valuation method 2028 14.7x PB; report date closing price RMB 35.78, implied upside labeled 70%~84% (differences between sources); is a high valuation assumption, cannot be treated as multi-institution consensus target price |
| Kaiyuan Securities | Buy | 2026-08-24 | No target price listed; 2026-2028 net profit attributable to parent forecast RMB 516/1,408/2,021 million (original values RMB 439/583 million, this time raised), corresponding to report date stock price RMB 33.31 PE 116.5/42.7/29.7x |
| AVIC Securities | Buy | 2026-06-06 | No target price listed; 2026-2028 net profit attributable to parent forecast RMB 396/669/1,078 million, based on 2026-04-29 closing price RMB 27.46 PE 119/70/44x |
Current valuation is at an extremely high level. Total market capitalization approximately RMB 66.85 billion (eastmoney, approximately 2026 August-September snapshot), circulating market capitalization approximately RMB 59.70 billion. Valuation indicators (eastmoney valuation comparison, based on 2026 interim basis): PE 25A 495.37x / TTM 308.60x / 26E 159.57x / 27E 83.05x / 28E 54.25x; PS 25A 9.29x / TTM 8.56x / 26E 7.48x / 27E 6.06x / 28E 4.94x; PEG 0.61. Cross-validation: Sohu Securities individual stock page TTM basis operating revenue approximately RMB 7.807 billion (+22.7%), net profit approximately RMB 217 million (+214.6%), non-GAAP approximately RMB 219 million (+223.2%), total market capitalization RMB 66.848 billion, enterprise value RMB 76.391 billion, total debt-to-asset ratio 64.6%, gross margin 21.0%, ROE(TTM) 3.9%, ROIC(TTM) 3.5%; using market cap/net profit 66.85/0.217≈308x, consistent with eastmoney TTM PE 308.6x, mutual verification passed. Net assets per share approximately RMB 3.32 (2026-06-30 basis, Sohu), implied PB approximately 10~11x (roughly calculated at stock price around RMB 35). Current stock price range (multiple snapshots, large differences, note timing): 2026-08-24 report date closing RMB 33.31, 2026-08-27 report date closing RMB 35.78, iwencai snapshot RMB 35.35/39.33 (Sohu snapshot); overall past 1 month +12.95%, past 3 months -24.45%, past 6 months +81.64%, year-to-date +85.93% (eastmoney, approximately 2026 August-September). Valuation conclusion key points: based on 2025 (attributable to parent RMB 135 million) static PE as high as approximately 495x, TTM PE approximately 308x; even based on the most optimistic 2026E forecast (Kaiyuan Securities RMB 516 million), PE still above 100x. A typical "performance not yet realized, valuation supported by packaging substrate/FCBGA domestic substitution and AI/storage industry chain expectations" high valuation target, PB also reaching approximately 10x or more. Related matters: private placement plan to raise no more than RMB 3.9 billion, for "high-order mSAP substrate intelligent manufacturing and industrialization project (Phase I)" and "integrated circuit packaging substrate project (Phase III)" capacity expansion, adding annual production of 120,000 sqm mSAP substrate, monthly production of 25,000 sqm packaging substrate capacity (Kaiyuan Securities 2026-08-24 research report), private placement will dilute EPS/net assets per share, need to note impact on valuation basis; share buyback: 2026-08-20 announcement of proposed centralized bidding buyback, amount RMB 60 million~RMB 100 million, price not exceeding RMB 42/share, for equity incentive or employee stock ownership. Data date and source reliability note: this retrieval "current time point" approximately around September 2026 (latest visible date 2026-09-08 research report tracking article, latest financial report 2026 interim report); all prices/market cap/PE must be annotated with their snapshot date, A-share quote page caching differences large (the RMB 33~39 stock prices in this note are due to different snapshots); official disclosed data cross-verified across multiple sources, high credibility; institutional forecasts and target prices are brokerage research opinions, not official data, 2026-2028 profit forecasts institutional divergence extremely large, SPDB International RMB 61 target price is single institution, PB method valuation; Tonghuashun "Forecast" page data as of 2026-03-09, clearly lagging (its 2025 forecast higher than actual), cite should note as historical forecast snapshot; beware of basis traps: eastmoney/Huaxi etc. pages showing "net profit (including minority interest)" as negative, inconsistent with "net profit attributable to parent" positive, due to minority shareholders bearing loss-making subsidiaries (FCBGA etc.) share, when comparing valuation uniformly use "net profit attributable to parent" basis.
4. Recent News and Announcements
4.1 Xingsen Technology Proposes Private Placement to Raise No More Than RMB 3.9 Billion for Semiconductor Substrate Projects
On the evening of June 23, 2026, the company announced the "2026 Private Placement of A-Shares Plan," proposing to issue no more than 510 million shares to no more than 35 specific targets, with total funds raised not exceeding RMB 3.9 billion. Fundraising uses: RMB 2.0 billion for Zhuhai Xingsen Semiconductor "high-order mSAP substrate intelligent manufacturing and industrialization project (Phase I)," for high-speed optical module PCB capacity, proposing to add annual production of 120,000 sqm mSAP substrate capacity, construction period 2 years, reaching full production in the 2nd year after completion; RMB 1.1 billion for Zhuhai Xingke Semiconductor "integrated circuit packaging substrate project (Phase III)," adding monthly production of 25,000 sqm (annualized 300,000 sqm) CSP substrate capacity after reaching full production, covering storage/automotive/RF chips etc.; RMB 800 million for supplementing working capital and repaying bank loans. The plan still requires company shareholder meeting approval, SZSE review approval, and CSRC registration consent before implementation, not yet landed, there is uncertainty. Key operating data disclosed: 2025 company optical module PCB revenue not exceeding RMB 150 million, accounting for no more than 2.08% of revenue; 2025 IC packaging substrate revenue RMB 1.670 billion, accounting for 23.22%, mainly contributed by CSP, FCBGA proportion small; subsidiary Guangzhou Xingsen carrying FCBGA production line 2025 operating revenue only RMB 26.8999 million, operating profit -RMB 644 million, net profit -RMB 533 million, 2025 full year labor/energy/raw materials/depreciation amortization etc. inputs totaling RMB 662 million; as of end of Q1 2026, net operating cash flow -RMB 247 million, net investing cash flow -RMB 294 million, net financing cash flow +RMB 768 million, debt-to-asset ratio 63.85%, interest-bearing debt total RMB 5.875 billion (37.48% of total assets); stock price rose sharply before private placement plan announcement, market cap grew from approximately RMB 36 billion at beginning of year to approximately RMB 82 billion (as of June 2026 report). This private placement does not involve the market-focused FCBGA/AI chip carrier project.
4.2 Xingsen Technology Share Buyback Progress: Three Batches, Latest Batch Ongoing
First batch (completed): 2024-02-27 Sixth Board of Directors 32nd meeting approved, buyback price not exceeding RMB 16.84/share, amount RMB 30-50 million; as of 2024-02-28 bought back 2.4 million shares, average transaction price RMB 12.96/share, paid RMB 31.1085 million. Second batch (completed): 2026-04-23 Seventh Board of Directors 12th meeting approved, buyback price not exceeding RMB 31.09/share, amount RMB 60-100 million; as of 2026-07-20 cumulative buyback 3,294,900 shares (0.19% of total shares at that time), average transaction price RMB 30.20/share, total transaction amount RMB 99.5036 million (excluding fees). Third batch (latest, ongoing): 2026-08-19 Seventh Board of Directors 14th meeting approved, centralized bidding buyback, price not exceeding RMB 42/share, total funds RMB 60-100 million, use "equity incentive or employee stock ownership plan," term 12 months (2026-08-21 to 2027-08-20). 2026-08-21 disclosed "Buyback Plan Announcement and Buyback Report" (Announcement No. 2026-08-039), proposing to buy back approximately 1,428,600-2,381,000 shares (0.08%-0.14% of total shares). 2026-08-21 same day announced obtaining Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Shenzhen Branch stock buyback special loan commitment letter, loan amount not exceeding RMB 90 million (and not exceeding 90% of total buyback funds), term not exceeding 36 months, specifically for buyback (Announcement No. 2026-08-043). As of 2026-08-31 no shares actually bought back (2026-09-02/03 buyback progress announcement, Announcement No. 2026-09-045). As of the employee stock ownership plan draft announcement date, company buyback special securities account held 5,694,900 shares (2.4 million + 3,294,900).
4.3 Xingsen Technology Launches 2026 Employee Stock Ownership Plan, Tied to 2026-2028 Revenue Assessment
2026-09-11 Seventh Board of Directors 15th meeting approved, draft full text announcement date 2026-09-12. Scale not exceeding 5,694,900 shares (0.34% of total shares), fund scale not exceeding RMB 110.48 million; purchase price RMB 19.40/share (not less than 50% of the average price of the 1 trading day before draft announcement = RMB 19.37, 50% of the average price of the previous 20 trading days = RMB 18.24); holders not exceeding 417 persons (directors/senior management 2 persons: Jiang Wei, Qiao Shuxiao, total 15.80% share); share source from buyback special account stocks (including 2026 second batch buyback 499,400 shares reserved share). Unlocking arrangement: duration 48 months, unlocked in three phases (lock-up period 12/24/36 months), unlocking ratio 30%/30%/40%, corresponding to 2026-2028 operating revenue assessment targets. Subsequent procedures: 2026-09-28 convening 2026 fourth extraordinary shareholders meeting for review (equity registration date 2026-09-22), requires shareholder meeting approval, there is uncertainty. The same board meeting also reviewed and approved the "Proposal on Proposing to Apply to Financial Institutions for New Policy-Based Financial Instruments" etc.
4.4 Xingsen Technology Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting Reviews Proposals Related to Subsidiary Equity and Right of First Refusal
2026-09-07 extraordinary shareholders meeting reviewed: waiving the right of first refusal for approximately RMB 1.3 billion equity in Guangzhou Xingsen held by state-owned shareholder, and accepting at RMB 0 the obligation to pay RMB 100 million paid-in capital of employee stock ownership platform. Related background: August 2023 to advance Guangzhou Xingsen FCBGA project, Xingsen Technology increased capital and introduced 5 strategic investors, capital increase amount RMB 1.605 billion (Xingsen subscribed RMB 555 million, five strategic investors total RMB 1.05 billion); according to private placement related disclosure, strategic investors' investment period is nearing expiration, company is negotiating their exit plan. (Information source is Economic Observer single report, not confirmed by second source)
4.5 Xingsen Technology Completes Acquisition of 24% Equity in Subsidiary Guangzhou Xingke Semiconductor
2025-07-28/29 completed: company used cash RMB 319.99 million (approximately RMB 320 million) to acquire 24% equity in Guangzhou Xingke Semiconductor Co., Ltd. from National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Huaxin Investment Management), after completion strengthened semiconductor layout.
4.6 Xingsen Technology Controlling Shareholder, Actual Controller Reduction and Shareholder Structure Dynamics
Controlling shareholder, actual controller reduction: 2025-09-26 announced "controlling shareholder, actual controller reduction plan implementation completed." Additionally according to Sohu individual stock "insider changes" data, Qiu Xingya reduced multiple times in August-September 2025: 2025-08-27 -1,288,000 shares (average price 19.06), 2025-08-28 -3,657,000 shares (19.05), 2025-09-12 -2,420,000 shares (23.12), 2025-09-22 -1,322,900 shares (23.95), 2025-09-23 had +50,000 shares (24.40). (This insider detail is single source, not cross-verified by second source, for reference only) Top ten shareholders before buyback matter (registration date 2026-08-20): ①Qiu Xingya 234,462,652 shares (13.79%); ②Jin Ning 66,902,828 (3.94%); ③Ye Hanbin 60,390,996 (3.55%); ④Zhang Libing 40,107,000 (2.36%); ⑤Hong Kong Central Clearing 30,418,955 (1.79%); ⑥Jin Yuxing 19,611,661 (1.15%); ⑦National Social Security Fund Portfolio 115 14,485,200 (0.85%); ⑧Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen Mixed 12,653,068 (0.74%); ⑨GF Fund-Social Security 420 Portfolio 11,132,562 (0.65%); ⑩Morgan Stanley Digital Economy Mixed 10,846,430 (0.50%). 2025 annual report disclosed shareholder count 108,900 households, top ten shareholders total holding 507 million shares (29.80% of total shares).
4.7 Xingsen Technology 2025 Annual Report and 2026 Interim Report Performance and Dividends
2025 annual report (disclosed 2026-04-25): total operating revenue RMB 7.195 billion, year-on-year +23.68%; net profit attributable to parent RMB 135 million (2024 was -RMB 198 million, year-on-year turned profitable); basic EPS RMB 0.08; gross margin 19.57% (year-on-year +3.70pct); ROE 2.52%. 2025 profit distribution: RMB 0.3 cash dividend per 10 shares (tax included), total dividend RMB 50,901,250.89 after excluding buyback special account shares; 2026-05-18 annual shareholders meeting approved, 2026-05-21 implementation announcement (Announcement No. 2026-05-023). 2026 interim report (disclosed 2026-08): 2026 H1 revenue RMB 4.038 billion (year-on-year +17.86%), net profit attributable to parent RMB 111 million (year-on-year +283.27%), non-GAAP attributable to parent RMB 125 million (year-on-year +166.9%); Q2 single quarter revenue RMB 2.220 billion (+20.23%), attributable to parent RMB 92 million (+371.53%).
4.8 Xingsen Technology Stock Price Abnormal Fluctuation Announcement
2026-04-13, 2025-10-15 each once "securities with price deviation reaching 7%" (trading public information).
5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis
5.1 Price Overview
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Closing Price | RMB 39.33 |
| Change | -RMB 0.38 / -0.96% |
| Open / Previous Close | 39.39 / 39.71 |
| Day High / Low | 40.00 / 37.38 |
| Amplitude | 6.60% |
| Volume / Turnover | 1,505,400 lots / RMB 5.831 billion |
| Turnover Rate / Volume Ratio | 9.92% / 0.90 |
| Total Shares / Circulating Shares | 1.700 billion shares / 1.518 billion shares |
| Total Market Cap / Circulating Market Cap | RMB 66.848 billion / RMB 59.700 billion |
| PE (Dynamic) | 302.46x |
| PE (Static / TTM) | 495.37x / 308.60x |
| PB | Approximately 11.86~11.89x |
| 52-Week High | RMB 55.00 (Baidu Stock, AASTOCKS, Investing.com three sources consistent, specific date unknown, not verified) |
| 52-Week Low | Sources inconsistent: AASTOCKS reports RMB 17.83, Investing.com reports RMB 18.41/18.31, Baidu Stock reports RMB 18.38, range approximately RMB 17.8~18.4 (differences may come from adjusted price basis and statistical window start/end dates different, should not use single precise value; Xueqiu historical page once showed RMB 16.10, other sources not corroborated, deemed suspicious, not adopted) |
| Past Week Daily Series (Closing Price / Change) | 2026-09-07: RMB 36.75, +10.00% (limit up), turnover 7.24%, turnover RMB 3.954 billion; 2026-09-08: RMB 40.12, +9.17%, turnover (already 4.68% at 09:35); 2026-09-09: RMB 39.45, -1.67%, turnover 11.39%, turnover RMB 6.887 billion (day high 41.08, recent swing high); 2026-09-10: RMB 39.71, +0.66%, turnover 9.58%, turnover RMB 5.726 billion; 2026-09-11: RMB 39.33, -0.96%, turnover 9.92%, turnover RMB 5.831 billion |
5.2 Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Brief Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages (MA5/MA10/MA20, forward-adjusted) | MA5 = RMB 39.07, MA10 = RMB 36.85, MA20 = RMB 35.93 | Current price RMB 39.33 > MA5 > MA10 > MA20, showing short-term bullish alignment; MA5 slightly above current price, indicating last 5-day average price has been slightly broken below by current price, short-term momentum marginally weakening. September 8 formed "moving average golden spider" (Jiufang Zhitou tip), short-term strengthening signal; same day tip lower moving average support level approximately RMB 38.50. Source Jiufang Zhitou. |
| MACD | DIF = 1.08, DEA = 0.43, MACD bar = 1.29 (positive) | August 7 appeared below-zero golden cross, September 9 double lines (DIF/DEA) crossed above 0 axis, entering strong zone; Jiufang September 11 tip "in strong adjustment stage, subsequently watch whether MACD re-forms death cross." Values from Jiufang Zhitou single source. |
| RSI | September 11 precise value not obtained | Jiufang Zhitou states "September 7 RSI golden cross and short-term RSI stood above 50, short-term strengthening"; East Money Thousand Stock Thousand Review (2026-09-11 17:00) marked "RSI no obvious signal appearing for now." Investing.com Spanish technical page once gave RSI(14)=47.947 (neutral), but its page price data corresponds to approximately RMB 35.19, date marked around 2026-09-01, inconsistent with this round's price above RMB 39, judged as lagging data, not adopted as current value. Day's RSI precise value missing. |
| Bollinger Bands (BOLL) | Could not obtain September 11 upper/middle/lower band precise values | East Money Thousand Stock Thousand Review clearly marked "BOLL no obvious signal appearing for now." This report's "band" position uses verified alternative anchors: MA20=RMB 35.93 (approximate middle band) + chip cost distribution, is approximate inference not official indicator value. |
| Chip Distribution (Jiufang Zhitou, date marked 2026-09-11) | Profit ratio 73.01%; holding average price RMB 36.73; resistance level RMB 40.41; support level RMB 35.36; 90% cost range RMB 31.48~40.61 (concentration 12.66%); 70% cost range RMB 33.76~39.94 (concentration 8.39%) | Chip cost range and support/resistance levels can be used to replace missing Bollinger band tracks as equivalent anchors. |
| Institutional Participation and Main Force Cost (East Money Thousand Stock Thousand Review, 2026-09-11 17:00) | Institutional participation 38.23%, belongs to "moderate control"; most recent 1 day main force cost RMB 38.73, most recent 20 days main force cost RMB 36.48 | Main force costs both below current price RMB 39.33, floating profit cushion relatively thick. This page simultaneously gives "recent news active, main force funds have outflow signs, short-term showing oscillation trend," historical backtest basis "next day rise probability 46.43%, 5-day rise probability 48.26%" (historical sample statistics, not equal to future probability). |
| Dragon-Tiger List (cross-verifiable) | 2026-09-07 listed due to daily price deviation reaching 7%: Dragon-Tiger List net buy RMB 593 million, institutional special seats net buy RMB 260 million, Shenzhen Stock Connect net buy RMB 245 million, business department seats total net buy RMB 88.08 million; day main force funds net inflow RMB 1.295 billion (extra-large orders +RMB 1.249 billion). 2026-08-17 also listed: Dragon-Tiger List net buy RMB 345 million, institutional net buy RMB 261 million, day rose 9.99%, turnover 10.17% | Past week listed 1 time, cumulative buy RMB 906 million, sell RMB 314 million, net buy amount RMB 593 million (East Money Thousand Stock Thousand Review, consistent with 9/7 data, cross-confirmed). |
| Margin Trading | Margin balance: 9/07 RMB 2.161 billion → 9/08 RMB 2.647 billion (quarter-on-quarter +22.48%, day margin net buy RMB 486 million, margin net buy industry ranking 1/420) → 9/09 RMB 2.430 billion → 9/10 RMB 2.385 billion; 9/11 margin difference RMB 2.359 billion, approximately 3.91% of circulating market cap (market average 4.37%); securities lending balance only approximately RMB 26.27 million (9/10) | September 8 was peak, subsequently fell for two consecutive days; securities lending scale extremely small. |
As of 2026-09-11 close, Xingsen Technology reported RMB 39.33, down 0.96%, turnover rate 9.92%, turnover RMB 5.831 billion. Current price above MA5(39.07) > MA10(36.85) > MA20(35.93) showing short-term bullish alignment, MACD double lines September 9 crossed above 0 axis entering strong zone, but MA5 slightly above current price, volume ratio 0.90 showing short-term momentum marginally weakening. September 7-8 volume limit up/large rise, main force large net inflow, September 9 onwards turned to net outflow/divergence, September 10-11 inflow outflow basically offset, short-term capital momentum significantly attenuated compared to September 7-8. Current price RMB 39.33 located in middle-upper part of 52-week range (approximately -28% from 52-week high RMB 55.00, approximately +115% from 52-week low), belongs to rebound recovery segment not historical high position. RSI and BOLL did not obtain cross-verifiable day precise values, scenario deduction avoids precise dependence on both. Different platforms have different definitions and statistical windows for "main force/large orders/extra-large orders," capital flow values differ greatly (RMB 929 million vs RMB 2.199 billion vs RMB 2.519 billion), should not directly compare; confirmable commonality is September 7-8 volume net inflow, September 9 onwards divergence intensifying, momentum attenuating.
5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, for Reference Only)
⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is only a technical subjective scenario deduction based on September 11, 2026 closing data, of which "weight" is empirical judgment, not statistical probability, and does not constitute any investment advice or buy/sell instruction.
① Key Technical Positions
| Position | Range | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | RMB 40.0~41.1 | Based on 9/11 high RMB 40.00, 9/9 high RMB 41.08, chip resistance level RMB 40.41. Volume standing firmly above RMB 41, then short-term opens space toward RMB 43~44 line (corresponding to 9/9 theoretical limit up price zone); otherwise repeatedly blocked in this range confirms box upper edge. |
| First Support | RMB 38.5~39.1 | Based on MA5=RMB 39.07, Jiufang tipped moving average support RMB 38.50, 9/9 transaction average price below RMB 39.83. If lost, likely to fill 9/8 gap and probe MA10. |
| Strong Support | RMB 36.3~36.9 | Based on MA10=RMB 36.85, chip holding average price RMB 36.73, Jiufang tipped support level RMB 36.27. If broken, opens downside space toward MA20=RMB 35.93, chip support RMB 35.36, further down look at 70% cost lower edge approximately RMB 33.76. |
② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weight, Not Statistical Probability)
- Oscillating consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately fifty percent (subjective empirical judgment, not statistical probability)): Price range: RMB 38.5~41.0. Trigger conditions: MA5 (RMB 39.07) flattening, current price repeatedly within this range, volume maintaining neutral level, no major new news catalyst, chips continuing to turn over in RMB 38.5~41.0 range. Research notes original text truncated here, did not give complete description of this scenario.
- Weaker downside (scenario description incomplete in research notes, cannot fully cite; weight not explicitly given in notes (research notes original text truncated here, only listed scenario one, did not provide complete content of scenario two, scenario three)): Data missing: research notes original text truncated in "Scenario One: Oscillating consolidation" description, scenario two (weaker downside) and scenario three (rebound strengthening) specific price ranges, trigger conditions and weights all did not completely appear in research notes. Based on verified key technical positions explanation: if first support RMB 38.5~39.1 lost, then likely to fill 9/8 gap and probe MA10; if strong support RMB 36.3~36.9 broken, then opens downside space toward MA20=RMB 35.93, chip support RMB 35.36, further down look at 70% cost lower edge approximately RMB 33.76. Above is deduction based on verified support levels, not complete independent scenario description in research notes.
- Rebound strengthening (scenario description missing in research notes, cannot fully cite; weight not explicitly given in notes (research notes original text truncated here)): Data missing: research notes did not provide complete content of this scenario. Based on verified key technical positions explanation: if volume standing firmly above RMB 41, then short-term opens space toward RMB 43~44 line (corresponding to 9/9 theoretical limit up price zone); otherwise if repeatedly blocked in RMB 40.0~41.1 range, then confirms box upper edge. Above is deduction based on verified resistance levels, not complete independent scenario description in research notes.
③ Capital and Liquidity Background
【Turnover Rate and Turnover】Turnover rate: 9/7 7.24%, 9/9 11.39%, 9/10 9.58%, 9/11 9.92%, continuously in 7%~11% high turnover range. Turnover: 9/7 RMB 3.954 billion → 9/9 RMB 6.887 billion → 9/10 RMB 5.726 billion → 9/11 RMB 5.831 billion, past 3 days stable at RMB 5.5~6.9 billion. 5-day volume average 1,726,900 lots, 10-day volume average 1,336,300 lots (9/11), 9/11 volume ratio 0.90 (volume contraction vs previous day). Circulating market cap RMB 59.7 billion, belongs to mid-to-large cap, combined with high-level turnover, order book depth still okay, liquidity risk not prominent, but high turnover itself indicates violent chip exchange, large divergence.【Shareholder and Chip Structure, all lagging data, must note reporting period】Shareholder count (as of 2026-06-30): 289,500 households, compared to 2026-03-31's 147,300 households increased 96.48%; average holding per household 5,872 shares. Household count doubling ≈ chip significantly dispersed, usually corresponds to main force distribution or retail influx stage, but this data is approximately 2.5 months lagging, structure may have changed greatly during the period. Top ten shareholders total holding 29.32%; institutional investors total proportion 14.79% (689 institutions), largest shareholder Qiu Xingya (as of 2026-06-30). Mainstream institutions in top ten circulating shareholders (2026-06-30, East Money top ten circulating shareholders tags): public funds 2, social security 2, private equity 0, QFII 0. That is, public funds and social security exist, but few in number, limited force, no QFII seen. Northbound funds: 2026-06-30 held 35,795,500 shares, 2.36% of circulating shares, vs previous quarter end +8,050,900 shares (+29.02%), holding market value RMB 1.824 billion (cls.cn). AASTOCKS/Investing.com shows Hong Kong capital holding approximately 4.02% (68,115,700 shares, date unclear, different from 2026-06-30 basis, need caution). Northbound holding proportion overall still relatively low. Pledge: as of 2026-09-04, total pledge proportion only 2.7% (45,900,000 shares, 3 transactions), pledge risk low (East Money stockdata page).【Main Force Funds, basis clearly divergent, need to list by source】According to Stockstar "main force funds" basis (as of 2026-09-11): 9/11 net outflow RMB 37.766 million (accounting for turnover -0.65%); 9/10 net inflow RMB 172 million; 9/9 net outflow RMB 985 million (-14.30%); 9/8 net inflow RMB 680 million (+5.95%); 9/7 net inflow RMB 1.259 billion (+31.84%), past 5 days total approximately net inflow +RMB 1.09 billion. East Money: 5-day main force net inflow RMB 2.099 billion, 10-day main force net inflow RMB 2.199 billion (extra-large orders 5-day +RMB 2.348 billion, large orders -RMB 250 million). Jiufang Zhitou (2026-09-11): past 10 days main force cumulative inflow RMB 929 million (another page 9/9 basis RMB 1.221 billion). Cailianshe: past 3 days net inflow RMB 2.157 billion, past 10 days RMB 2.519 billion, past 20 days RMB 3.309 billion. Different platforms have different definitions and statistical windows for "main force/large orders/extra-large orders," values differ greatly, should not directly compare. Confirmable commonality is: September 7 limit up, September 8 large rise were volume net inflow, September 9 onwards turned to net outflow/divergence, September 10-11 inflow outflow basically offset, short-term capital momentum significantly attenuated compared to September 7-8.
If single-day turnover continues to expand to past 3 days range upper edge (approximately RMB 6.9 billion) or above, or significantly shrinks below 5-day volume average, can respectively be viewed as observation signals of capital re-entry or momentum attenuation (calibration based on this stock's own recent normal turnover range of RMB 5.5~6.9 billion, not universal threshold).
④ Points of Attention (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)
- Watch short-term resistance RMB 40.0~41.1 range: whether can volume stand firmly above RMB 41, or repeatedly blocked in this range confirming box upper edge, is observation idea, not operational instruction.
- Watch first support RMB 38.5~39.1 (MA5 and moving average support) and strong support RMB 36.3~36.9 (MA10, chip holding average price) gain/loss, if lost then respectively probe MA10 and MA20=RMB 35.93, chip support RMB 35.36, is observation idea, not operational instruction.
- Watch turnover volume signals: whether single-day turnover can continue to expand to past 3 days range upper edge (approximately RMB 6.9 billion) or above or significantly shrink, as observation idea of capital entry/momentum attenuation, not operational instruction.
- Watch whether MACD re-forms death cross (Jiufang Zhitou September 11 tip point of attention), and high turnover (7%~11%) under chip exchange and divergence evolution, is observation idea, not operational instruction.
The above scenario deduction is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices, technical indicator calculations, short-term stock price will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital, market environment, technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute guarantee of future actual trend, nor constitute buy/sell advice, please combine latest market information to judge independently and bear investment risk yourself.
6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis
6.1 Industry Status
The company belongs to the Electronics—Components—Printed Circuit Board (PCB) industry, in the midstream manufacturing segment of the electronics industry chain. PCB, as an indispensable basic electronic component for electronic products and information infrastructure, has a wide range of applications and is highly correlated with the global macroeconomic situation. The industry upstream is raw materials such as copper clad laminate, prepreg, gold salt, chemical solutions, copper foil, with prices driven by copper prices, oil prices, gold prices and other commodities; downstream covers communication equipment, consumer electronics, industrial control, medical electronics, servers, rail transit, computer applications, semiconductors, with key expansion directions being high-end optical modules, millimeter-wave communications, AI hardware. The current industry presents dual cost pressure of "raw material price increases and customer price pressure" (October 2025 basis: copper prices at highs, fiberglass cloth +12% year-on-year, gold salt average price +36.57% year-on-year), while AI computing power and storage cycle upturn drive high-end carrier (FCBGA/ABF, CSP/BT) domestic substitution demand.
6.2 Competitive Landscape
- Company positioning: domestic PCB prototype/small-batch absolute leader (research notes state 15 consecutive years market share first, share far exceeding the sum of second to tenth place, main focus 24-hour rapid prototyping); processes cover Tenting subtractive method, mSAP modified semi-additive method, SAP semi-additive method full set of processes
- IC packaging substrate: research notes state company is domestic storage carrier leader (domestic market share approximately 25%), the only domestic-funded enterprise simultaneously mass-producing BT+ABF carriers, breaking through mSAP fine line process (minimum line width/spacing 9/12μm, 16-20 layer high-order substrate yield 85%-90%)
- Semiconductor ATE test board: research notes state global top three, market share approximately 15%, deeply supporting Teradyne, Advantest global leading test equipment manufacturers
- Capacity layout: Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Yixing, Beijing four major manufacturing bases with clear division of labor; Zhuhai BT storage carrier monthly capacity 50,000 sqm; Guangzhou Huangpu FCBGA base (total investment over RMB 3.9 billion) Phase I mass production 2026, year-end monthly capacity ramping to 60,000 pieces, long-term full production monthly capacity over 200,000 pieces
- Subsidiaries: Fineline (European PCB business, 2026H1 revenue RMB 1.053 billion, net profit RMB 101 million, benefiting from European recovery), Yixing Silicon Valley (small-batch boards, 2026H1 revenue RMB 363 million, turned profitable), Beijing Xingfei (formerly Beijing Ibiden, HDI/substrate-like PCB, 2026H1 revenue RMB 528 million, net profit RMB 47 million, year-on-year -45%), Guangzhou Xingke Semiconductor, Zhuhai Xingke, Guangzhou Xingsen Semiconductor (carrier base)
- R&D strength: research notes state 2021-2026Q1 cumulative R&D investment over RMB 2.2 billion, R&D expense ratio long-term above 5%, holding over a thousand circuit, carrier patents
- Military products/special circuit support: possesses aerospace, military high-reliability PCB production qualifications, can produce radiation-resistant, wide-temperature precision circuit boards
- Some of the above capacity and market share data sources are brokerage research reports, survey Q&A and self-media compilations, cross-verification degree varies, please refer to company announcements/annual reports
6.3 Major Competitors
| Company | Positioning | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Xingsen Technology (002436.SZ) | PCB prototype/small-batch leader + IC packaging substrate (BT+ABF) + semiconductor test board, midstream electronic circuit manufacturing | Research notes state PCB prototype domestic market share first, global ATE test board top three (market share approximately 15%), domestic storage carrier leader (market share approximately 25%); 2026H1 revenue RMB 4.038 billion, net profit attributable to parent RMB 111 million, semiconductor business gross margin improved from 2024H1's -33.19% to 2026H1's +1.79%; FY2025 revenue approximately RMB 7.195 billion, net profit RMB 135 million |
| Comparable Company A: IC packaging substrate domestic-funded enterprises | IC packaging substrate (BT/ABF carrier) | Research notes state mainland only 2 can mass supply NVIDIA ABF carriers, Xingsen is domestic-funded representative, did not give specific comparable company names and financial data; specific comparable company data missing, need further verification |
| Comparable Company B: PCB volume/batch board enterprises | High-multilayer PCB volume production, HDI | Research notes did not provide specific comparable company names, market share and financial data, data missing; only mentioned company PCB prototype/small-batch business gross margin long-term higher than volume boards |
| Comparable Company C: Semiconductor ATE test board enterprises | Semiconductor test board/probe card substrate | Research notes state Xingsen Technology global top three, market share approximately 15%, deeply supporting Teradyne, Advantest; did not list other top two enterprise names and data, specific competitive landscape data missing |
Xingsen Technology's industry positioning is a diversified player in the "midstream electronic circuit manufacturing" segment: on one hand using PCB prototype/small-batch business as stable cash flow foundation (2026H1 revenue RMB 2.503 billion, accounting for 61.98%, gross margin 25.56%), research notes state 15 consecutive years market share first, share far exceeding the sum of second to tenth place, with rapid prototyping stickiness and relative pricing power; on the other hand using IC packaging substrate (2026H1 revenue RMB 1.209 billion, accounting for 29.94%, year-on-year +67.34%, gross margin -0.36% basically turned positive) and semiconductor test board (2026H1 revenue RMB 120 million, gross margin 23.48%) as second growth curve, research notes state company is the only domestic-funded enterprise simultaneously mass-producing BT+ABF carriers, domestic storage carrier leader (market share approximately 25%), global ATE test board top three (market share approximately 15%), customer certification cycle 1-3 years, barrier relatively high. Compared to upstream copper clad laminate leaders (relatively strong price transmission ability) and downstream large storage/packaging testing/computing customers (high concentration, strong bargaining power), company as midstream manufacturing segment profit margin squeezed by dual pressure of upstream commodity price increases and downstream major customer price pressure, medium-to-long-term performance elasticity depends on FCBGA carrier mass production progress and CSP capacity utilization improvement bringing product structure upgrade. Note: same industry comparable company specific names, market share and financial data basically missing in research notes, above comparison based mainly on company's own business data and industry description, specific peer competitive landscape data missing, need further verification.
7. Risk Warnings
- FCBGA project mass production and profit realization risk: Guangzhou Xingsen carrying FCBGA production line 2025 operating revenue only RMB 26.8999 million, operating profit loss RMB 644 million, net profit loss RMB 533 million, project still in high input, low output stage; if mass production progress, yield or customer introduction below expectations, semiconductor business profit improvement may be delayed.
- IC packaging substrate customer concentration risk: IC packaging substrate top five customers revenue proportion rose from 2023's 48.48% to 2024's 53.54%, its revenue growth and capacity utilization largely dependent on storage and packaging testing major customers; single or few customer orders, certification and bargaining changes may have large impact on performance.
- Raw material price increase and profit margin pressure risk: company direct material cost proportion exceeds 60%, copper clad laminate, copper foil, prepreg, gold salt etc. costs respectively affected by copper prices, oil prices and gold prices; 2026 first half PCB gross margin 25.56%, Beijing Xingfei net profit year-on-year decline 45%, already showing raw material price increases' impact on some business profitability.
- Capital expenditure, debt and cash flow risk: 2026 first half net operating cash flow approximately -RMB 247 million, as of end of Q1 2026 interest-bearing debt total approximately RMB 5.875 billion, debt-to-asset ratio 63.85%; if private placement capacity expansion, FCBGA and mSAP projects continue investment, while operating cash flow improvement insufficient, may increase financing and financial
Fair-value range, DCF / industry models, comparable-company checks, confidence and key assumptions