Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. (Securities abbreviation: ST Sierte, formerly Sierte) (002538)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Phosphate Compound Fertilizers (Fertilizers)　|　Report date: September 13, 2026　|　Closing price on September 11, 2026 (Friday); unless otherwise stated, prices and market data are as of the September 11, 2026 close; shareholder structure is based on the reporting period ended June 30, 2026

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

The most decision-relevant background for ST Sierte (002538.SZ) is currently its corporate-governance and compliance risk. Because of false records in the company’s 2021 and 2023 annual reports, its stock name was changed from “Sierte” to “ST Sierte” effective March 31, 2026, and the daily price-movement limit was reduced to 5%. On July 30, 2026, the company received an Administrative Penalty Decision from the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau, under which it was ordered to rectify its conduct, issued a warning and fined RMB 6 million; the responsible individuals were fined approximately RMB 9.6 million in aggregate. Former chairman Jin Guoqing and former general manager Jin Zhenghui were each fined RMB 3 million and each received a five-year market ban. The relevant violations involved fabricating construction activities through the wholly owned subsidiary Guizhou Lufa and conducting fictitious urea purchases and organic-fertilizer sales, resulting in overstated total profit of RMB 36.3467 million in 2021 and understated total profit of RMB 17.3485 million in 2023. The company has corrected prior-period accounting errors and made retrospective adjustments. Its 2025 annual report received a qualified audit opinion from ShineWing Certified Public Accountants.

Operating performance shows a combination of “year-on-year recovery but sequential pressure.” In 2026H1, revenue was RMB 2.518 billion (+15.36%), net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 110 million (+15.90%), and non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent was approximately RMB 106 million (+14.02%). Net operating cash flow was RMB 124 million (+31.22%), weighted-average ROE was 2.09%, gross margin was 12.65%, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 19.74%. However, most of the growth came from the first quarter: Q1 net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 69.1153 million (+81.14%), while Q2 net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 41.2733 million, down 27.7% year on year. Q2 revenue increased only 3.92% year on year. Media reports attributed the pressure to a sharp increase in sulfur costs, based on a single source. 2025 was a year of earnings decline: full-year revenue was RMB 4.662 billion (+8.87%), net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 165.1 million (-47.06%), and non-GAAP net profit was approximately RMB 157 million (-46.45%). In 2024, net profit attributable to the parent reached RMB 311.9 million (+137.8%), although this figure was retrospectively adjusted.

The company’s business structure and profit concentration are key to understanding it. Fertilizers remain the core business. In 2026H1, external sales of ternary compound fertilizer reached 483,200 tonnes (+1.23%), while monoammonium phosphate sales reached 260,500 tonnes (+17.03%). Phosphate mining contributes the most concentrated share of profit, but phosphate-rock sales have continued to decline: 577,600 tonnes in 2025 (-22.05%) and 250,300 tonnes in 2026H1 (-15.56%). The company cited “insufficient remaining recoverable reserves at the Mingniwan phosphate mine” as the primary reason. All key approvals have been obtained for Phase I of the Guizhou Phosphorus-Fluorine New Materials Mining-Chemical Integration Industrial Park, covering wet-process purified phosphoric acid, monopotassium phosphate and sodium fluorosilicate. Equipment installation has begun and the office building has been topped out. As of 2026H1, construction in progress stood at RMB 264 million and project completion was 21.54%. In July 2026, the board also approved the Xuancheng Fine Phosphate Transformation and Upgrade Project, with planned total investment of approximately RMB 866 million.

In the secondary market and valuation, the stock closed at RMB 6.72 on September 11, 2026 (-2.75%), with a total market capitalization of RMB 5.736 billion. PE was approximately 31.8x on a trailing-twelve-month basis, 34.7x on a static basis and 26.0x on a forward annualized basis; PB was 1.10x and net assets per share were RMB 6.1361. The 2025 dividend was RMB 0.12 per 10 shares, implying a dividend yield of approximately 1.8% at the current share price. Technically, the stock is weak: its price is below MA5 (RMB 6.93), MA10 (RMB 6.99) and MA20 (RMB 7.14). A moving-average “death triangle” formed on September 4, MACD formed a death cross above the zero line on August 24, a daily-chart “bear point” appeared on August 27, and RSI formed a death cross and fell below 50 on August 28. Main-fund net outflows totaled RMB 25.5217 million during the week of September 7–11. Turnover was only 1.26%, with daily trading value of approximately RMB 42–72 million, making this a relatively illiquid stock.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Fertilizers (core business): ternary compound fertilizer, monoammonium phosphate, specialized soil-testing formula fertilizer, bio-organic fertilizer and new functional fertilizers, including the Junwang, Meiyouneng and Sierte Dafengshou product lines. The company operates three major fertilizer production bases in Ningguo, Xuancheng (Xuanzhou) and Bozhou, Anhui. In 2025, external sales of ternary compound fertilizer were 915,000 tonnes (+5.82%), and monoammonium phosphate sales were 514,300 tonnes (+9.64%). In 2026H1, the corresponding figures were 483,200 tonnes (+1.23%) and 260,500 tonnes (+17.03%).
• Phosphate mining (most concentrated profit contribution): the wholly owned subsidiary Guizhou Lufa Industrial Co., Ltd., located in Kaiyang County, Guiyang, Guizhou, holds mining rights covering 4.5602 km² at the Mingniwan phosphate mine and 8.305 km² at the Yongwen phosphate mine. The approved production capacity of the Mingniwan mine is 800,000 tonnes/year; it is in normal production, with mining and extraction contracted to a third party. The Yongwen mine has approved capacity of 3 million tonnes/year but has not yet been constructed, and its Safety Facilities Design is under review and approval; it was submitted to the National Mine Safety Administration in early November 2025. According to the official assessed and filed resource figures as of March 31, 2025, based on Qian Natural Resources Reserves [2025] No. 24, the Mingniwan mine had cumulative identified phosphate resources of 36.098 million tonnes, of which 17.046 million tonnes had been mined and 19.052 million tonnes remained, comprising 1.915 million tonnes of proved resources, 10.906 million tonnes of controlled resources and 6.231 million tonnes of inferred resources. Associated inferred iodine resources amounted to 1,124 tonnes. The Yongwen mining area is a high-grade, high-quality mine with “a comprehensive phosphate grade of over 30%.” Phosphate-rock sales were 577,600 tonnes in 2025 (-22.05%) and 250,300 tonnes in 2026H1 (-15.56%). The company attributed the decline primarily to “insufficient remaining recoverable reserves at the Mingniwan phosphate mine.”
• Pyrite/kaolin: subsidiary Xuancheng M尾shan Mining Co., Ltd. conducts underground mining of pyrite and kaolin, as well as associated zinc, lead, copper and silver, with permitted annual production of 380,000 tonnes. Pyrite, including sulfur concentrate, sales were 97,200 tonnes in 2025 and 66,600 tonnes in 2026H1 (+48.84%). The stated use changed: the 2025 annual report said that pyrite produced was used as raw material for the company’s sulfuric acid, with some sold externally; the 2026 interim report changed this to “mainly sold externally.”
• Phosphorus-fluorine new materials under construction (new energy): Phase I of the Phosphorus-Fluorine New Materials Mining-Chemical Integration Industrial Park of Guizhou Sierte New Energy Materials Technology Co., Ltd. will produce wet-process purified phosphoric acid, monopotassium phosphate and sodium fluorosilicate. As of 2026H1, key approvals, including safety, environmental-impact assessment and energy-conservation approvals, had all been obtained. Bidding for major equipment had been completed, construction had begun, and the office building had been topped out.

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Industrial Chain and Cost/Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The latest financial report is the 2026 interim report, disclosed on August 26, 2026, with data through June 30, 2026. In 2026H1, non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent was approximately RMB 106 million (+14.02%); EPS was RMB 0.13; ROE was 2.09%; gross margin was 12.65%; net margin was 4.38%; and the debt-to-asset ratio was 19.74%. The 2025 annual report, disclosed on April 29, 2026, reported non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 157,016,977.10, down 46.45% year on year, and proposed a dividend of RMB 1.2 per 10 shares, with EPS of approximately RMB 0.1934. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent in the 2024 annual report was approximately RMB 290 million. The 2024 net profit attributable to the parent was retrospectively adjusted from RMB 311.4 million to RMB 311.9 million; this should be considered when calculating year-on-year growth. Q2 non-GAAP net profit was RMB 37.9424 million, down 32.19% year on year. The quarterly Q2 breakdown and sulfur-cost attribution came from media reports by Securities Star and Economic Observer and are based on a single source. Sources: company interim-report summary, East Money, Securities Star, Sina Finance, Economic Observer and others.

2024 was the earnings peak, with net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 311.9 million (+137.8%), while 2025 earnings fell sharply to RMB 165.1 million (-47.06%). In the first half of 2026, net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 110 million (+15.90%), primarily driven by Q1 growth of 81.14%, which turned year-on-year growth positive. However, Q2 quarterly net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 41.2733 million, down 27.7% year on year, indicating clear pressure. Media reports attributed the drag to a sharp rise in sulfur costs; this is a single-source media attribution. Revenue growth also slowed sequentially: 2026H1 revenue rose 15.36% year on year, while Q2 revenue rose only 3.92%. The slight retrospective adjustment to 2024 data should be noted.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

No usable institutional earnings forecasts are available. The “Earnings Forecast” page on East Money F10 explicitly states that “there are currently no rating statistics for this stock.” Its “Institutional Forecast” table contains only the 2025A actual figure, with average EPS over the past six months of RMB 0.19 and corresponding PE of approximately 37.48x; there are no consensus estimates for 2026E/2027E/2028E. Securities Star’s “Research Report Metrics” page shows only one recent report, from Global Fortune Wealth Management, dated May 28, 2026 and titled “Leading Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Accelerates Mine and New-Energy Project Construction.” The institution’s latest rating and target price are blank, as are its 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS forecasts. The reference closing price on the report date was RMB 6.22. Accordingly, there is no multi-institution consensus, no sell-side rating and no target price, and revenue, net profit or EPS forecasts for the next two to three years cannot be provided.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

The valuation reference date is the September 11, 2026 close. Closing price was RMB 6.72, down RMB 0.19 (-2.75%); total market capitalization was RMB 5.736 billion and free-float market capitalization was RMB 5.732 billion. Total shares outstanding were 853.6 million and free-float shares were 853 million. PE was approximately 31.8x on a TTM basis, 34.7x on a static basis and 26.0x on a dynamic basis, annualized from the latest quarterly report. PB was 1.10x; net assets per share were RMB 6.1361, implying PB slightly above 1x; undistributed profit per share was RMB 2.332; and TTM ROE was approximately 3.5%. The 2025 dividend was RMB 0.12 per 10 shares, implying a dividend yield of approximately 1.8% at the current price. Under Yahoo’s methodology, forecast dividend yield was 1.69% and payout ratio was 52.24%.

Yahoo Finance cross-check data, with inconsistent definitions and dates, showed market capitalization of 6.08B, enterprise value of 5.48B, trailing PE of approximately 31.0x, PB of 1.15x, P/S of 1.23x and EV/EBITDA of approximately 21.0x. The 52-week price range was RMB 4.95–8.31, the 50-day moving average was RMB 6.32 and the 200-day moving average was RMB 6.70. The page header price of RMB 7.32 did not match the September 11 closing price of RMB 6.72, reflecting a difference in delay or snapshot date; company-market-data sources should prevail. Zonebourse separately showed a one-year range of approximately RMB 4.81–7.43, also based on a different snapshot date and for reference only.

Valuation should take into account the governance and compliance discount arising from the ST designation, the qualified 2025 audit opinion and the July 30, 2026 administrative penalty imposed by the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau, including the RMB 6 million fine. The latter two items were based on a single source and had not been independently verified; caution is warranted. The ST designation was confirmed by multiple sources. Other uncertainties and data inconsistencies include the following: East Money F9 labels the stock as a “break-net stock,” although its current PB is 1.10 (>1), making the label questionable. Sohu Securities’ quote page shows “medical services RMB 473 million/100%” under “main revenue,” which is clearly inconsistent with the company’s fertilizer business and is considered a data-misalignment or scraping error and is not used. Securities Star’s “Main Business” page gives chemical fertilizers at approximately 89.95%, mineral-resource services at approximately 9.85% and medical services at approximately 0.20% for 2026H1. In addition, the restructuring period for the controlling shareholder Guogou Investment and 42 other companies was reportedly extended to December 28, 2026, based on a single source.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Company Placed Under Other Risk Warning; Securities Abbreviation Changed to “ST Sierte”

Because of false records in the 2021 and 2023 annual reports, the company’s stock name changed from “Sierte” to “ST Sierte” at the opening of trading on March 31, 2026, and the daily price-movement limit was changed to 5%. Sources: Securities Times Online and Securities Star (March 28, 2026).

4.2 Receipt of the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau’s Administrative Penalty Decision (Announcement 2026-25)

On July 30, 2026, the company received the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau’s Administrative Penalty Decision ([2026] No. 4), announced on August 1, 2026. The violations involved fabricating construction activities through the wholly owned subsidiary Guizhou Lufa Industrial and conducting fictitious urea purchases and organic-fertilizer sales, resulting in false records in the 2021 and 2023 annual reports. Total profit was overstated by RMB 36.3467 million in 2021, representing 6.76% of disclosed profit for that year, and understated by RMB 17.3485 million in 2023, representing 10.35% of disclosed profit.

Specific amounts included RMB 34.7043 million of construction payments for fabricated truck-tunneling activities; RMB 31.2023 million in fabricated construction payments involving three companies in Zhejiang, Wenzhou and Fujian; RMB 18.9603 million of overstated operating costs from fictitious urea purchases; and RMB 9.5029 million of overstated operating revenue. The penalty imposed on the company was an order to rectify, a warning and a fine of RMB 6 million. Responsible individuals included former chairman Jin Guoqing, fined RMB 3 million and banned from the market for five years; former general manager Jin Zhenghui, fined RMB 3 million and banned from the market for five years; Fang Jun, RMB 2 million; Huang Xili, RMB 1.5 million; Wen Jibing, RMB 1.5 million; Ma Lei, RMB 800,000; and Yao Jing, RMB 800,000. Total fines on responsible individuals were approximately RMB 9.6 million. Earlier milestones included receipt of the China Securities Regulatory Commission’s Notice of Investigation on September 1, 2025, and receipt of the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau’s Advance Notice of Administrative Penalty and Market Ban (Penalty Notice [2026] No. 1) and Decision on Administrative Regulatory Measures ([2026] No. 15) on March 27, 2026. Sources: China Securities Journal, Securities Times Online, East Money and Blue Whale Finance.

4.3 Correction of Prior-Period Accounting Errors and Retrospective Adjustments

On April 29, 2026, the company disclosed its Announcement on the Correction of Prior-Period Accounting Errors and Retrospective Adjustments. Comparative data in the 2026 interim report and 2025 annual report use the retrospectively adjusted basis. Sources: China Securities Journal interim-report summary (August 27, 2026) and Sange Pijang report commentary (September 11, 2026).

4.4 Receipt of a Decision Not to Prosecute

The company announced on January 22, 2026 that it had received a Decision Not to Prosecute. This item is based on a single source, the company-announcement list on gubit.cn, and the specific content and case involved have not been further verified. Source: gubit.cn.

4.5 Risk of Civil Claims by Investors

Several media outlets reported that the finalization of the penalty would provide a basis for civil claims for false representation and that the claims window remained open, representing an ongoing risk. Sources: Securities Daily (August 8, 2026) and Sina Finance (July 2, 2026).

4.6 Completion of the 2025 Share-Purchase Plan by Directors, Supervisors and Senior Executives

The company disclosed an acquisition plan on September 16, 2025 (Announcement 2025-37): chairman and general manager Yuan Qirong planned to purchase RMB 3–6 million of shares; director and deputy general manager Yuan Peng planned to purchase RMB 500,000–1 million; and secretary to the board Wu Changhao planned to purchase RMB 250,000–500,000. The purchases were to be conducted through centralized bidding within three months. The plan was completed from September 16 to December 15, 2025, as announced on December 17, 2025 (Announcement 2025-52). Yuan Qirong purchased 588,500 shares (0.069%, approximately RMB 3.1002 million); Yuan Peng purchased 98,000 shares (0.011%, approximately RMB 511,700); and Wu Changhao purchased 50,000 shares (0.006%, approximately RMB 261,300). Sources: China Securities Journal, Sina Finance and Jiufang Invest.

4.7 New 2026 “Repurchase + Purchase” Plan (Pending Verification)

An investor question on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s Interactive Easy platform dated July 22, 2026 stated that the company disclosed two coordinated plans in March 2026: directors, supervisors and senior executives would purchase at least RMB 12.5 million of shares in aggregate, with the chairman personally purchasing at least RMB 5 million; at the same time, the company would repurchase RMB 100–200 million of shares, with a maximum repurchase price of RMB 18.58. The question further stated that by the end of June only 19% of the minimum RMB 100 million amount had been completed.

The limitation is that the existence and progress of the repurchase plan appeared only in an investor question on Interactive Easy; the company’s response was not obtained, and the information could not be cross-checked through a formal company announcement. It also represents a change from Sina Finance’s September 12, 2025 report that “Sierte: the company is not currently considering a share repurchase.” The matter should therefore be labeled “pending verification through a formal company announcement.” An investor post on East Money’s investor forum dated June 18, 2026 suggested that the company implement a repurchase and equity-incentive plan as soon as possible; this was an investor opinion, not a company disclosure. Sources: Interactive Easy, Sina Finance and East Money’s investor forum.

4.8 Pledge and Pledge Level of the Controlling Shareholder

As of September 4, 2026, and August 28, 2026, the total pledged ratio was 21.03%, with 180 million pledged shares across two pledges. Among the top ten tradable shareholders as of June 30, 2026, the controlling shareholder was Guogou Industrial Holdings Co., Ltd., holding approximately 21.34%. Historical announcements show that Guogou Industrial Holdings made small purchases on March 21–24 and May 11–12, 2026. East Money published a report referring to a “pledge-triggered Eagle Eye high-risk rating” on September 8, 2025. Sources: East Money Data Center and Sina Finance.

4.9 Changes in the Number of Shareholders

As of June 30, 2026, the company had 31,888 shareholders, a decrease of 7,897 from the previous period, indicating greater ownership concentration. Source: East Money.

4.10 Investment Agreement for the Fine Phosphate Transformation and Upgrade Project

The board approved the project on July 27, 2026, and the company announced it on July 28, 2026 (Announcement 2026-23). The wholly owned grandchild company Xuancheng Sierte Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. plans to sign a Project Investment Agreement with the Administrative Committee of Anhui Xuancheng High-Tech Industrial Development Zone. Based on existing facilities in the chemical industrial park, it plans to invest in the Fine Phosphate Transformation and Upgrade Project, with planned total investment of approximately RMB 866 million. The project still requires government project approval or filing, environmental-impact, safety and energy-conservation approvals, and a construction permit. It is not expected to have a material short-term impact on performance and does not constitute a material asset restructuring. Sources: China Securities Journal and AASTOCKS.

4.11 Change to the Mingniwan Phosphate-Mine Mining Right

On March 30, 2026, Guizhou Lufa, the wholly owned subsidiary, signed a Change to the Mining Rights Transfer Contract for the Mingniwan Phosphate Mine in Yongwen Township, Kaiyang County with the Guizhou Provincial Department of Natural Resources. The mining depth was proposed to change from elevations of 650m to 80m to elevations of 730m to -135m. Cumulative identified phosphate resources of 36.098 million tonnes remained unchanged, while recoverable reserves after transfer increased by 18.176 million tonnes. Announcements on June 8–9, 2026 confirmed completion of the mining-right registration change and the issuance of the Real Estate Ownership Certificate (Mining Right) and Mining Permit. Sources: East Money and AASTOCKS.

4.12 Strategic Cooperation Agreement with the Guiyang Branch of ICBC

On June 6, 2026, the company announced that it had signed a Strategic Cooperation Agreement with the Guiyang branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Source: gubit.cn company-announcement list.

4.13 Progress of Phase I of the Phosphorus-Fluorine New Materials Mining-Chemical Integration Industrial Park

The 2026 interim report indicated that the project was progressing in stages: safety, environmental-impact and energy-conservation approvals had been completed; bidding for major equipment had been completed; and construction had begun. Construction in progress for the Guizhou new-energy project was RMB 264 million, with project completion of 21.54%. Source: Sange Pijang 2026 interim-report commentary (September 11, 2026).

4.14 2025 Annual Dividend Distribution

The company announced on June 18, 2026 a dividend of RMB 1.20 per 10 shares, including tax, or RMB 1.08 after tax. The record date was June 24, 2026, and the ex-dividend and payment date was June 25, 2026. Source: AASTOCKS dividend record.

4.15 Disclosure of the 2026 Interim Report

Disclosed on August 27, 2026: revenue of RMB 2.518 billion (+15.36%); net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 110 million (+15.90%); non-GAAP net profit of RMB 106 million (+14.02%); basic EPS of RMB 0.13; net operating cash flow of RMB 124 million (+31.22%); and weighted-average ROE of 2.09%. Q2 quarterly net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 41.2733 million, down 27.7% year on year, reportedly affected by higher sulfur costs. No dividend, bonus issue or capitalization issue was proposed.

4.16 Full-Year 2025 Performance

For full-year 2025, revenue was RMB 4.662 billion (+8.87%), net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 181 million (-39.92%), and non-GAAP net profit was RMB 173 million (-37.65%). The 2025 annual report received a qualified opinion.

4.17 “Dual Improvement in Quality and Returns” Action Plan and Progress

On April 29, 2026, the company disclosed its “Dual Improvement in Quality and Returns” Action Plan (Announcement 2026-13) and its interim progress on August 27, 2026 (Announcement 2026-28).

4.18 Performance Briefing, Shareholders’ Meeting and Institutional Research

The company held an online 2025 annual performance briefing on May 13, 2026, held its 2025 annual shareholders’ meeting on May 23, 2026, and received one institutional research visit on May 20, 2026.

4.19 Governance-System Amendments

The company formulated or revised policies concerning compensation management for directors, supervisors and senior executives; departure management; clawback of compensation; and the holding and trading of company shares.

4.20 ESG Rating

The latest Huazheng Index ESG rating as of September 6, 2026 was C, ranking 503rd in the industry. Source: Securities Star (September 6, 2026).

4.21 Uncertainties and Required Caveats

1) The 2026 “RMB 100–200 million repurchase, maximum repurchase price RMB 18.58” was mentioned only in an Interactive Easy investor question dated July 22, 2026 and could not be verified through a formal company announcement. It also represents a change from the public statement on September 12, 2025 that the company was “not currently considering a share repurchase.” It should be labeled “pending confirmation by company announcement.” 2) Regarding the restructuring of controlling shareholder Guogou Industrial Holdings, the interim-report risk disclosure stated that the execution period for the consolidated restructuring plan involving Guogou Investment and 42 other companies had been extended to December 28, 2026. This was reported by Sange Pijang and is a secondary source; verification through a company or court announcement is recommended. 3) The January 22, 2026 Decision Not to Prosecute appeared only in a third-party announcement list on gubit.cn and its contents were not verified. 4) The penalty amounts and overstated/understated profit figures were consistent across more than four sources and therefore have relatively high credibility. 5) Timing note: share price, pledges and shareholder count are data as of their respective “as of” dates; financial data follow the formal disclosures in the 2026 interim report and 2025 annual report, with 2026 interim-report year-on-year figures presented on a retrospectively adjusted basis.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

The stock is 002538.SZ on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Main Board, issued by Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. Its securities abbreviation changed from “Sierte” to “ST Sierte” on March 31, 2026. Technical pages retaining “Sierte” in their titles may contain earlier data dates and should be treated with caution. As of the September 11, 2026 close, the stock was RMB 6.72 (-2.75%), below MA5 (RMB 6.93), MA10 (RMB 6.99) and MA20 (RMB 7.14). The moving-average structure was bearish, with a death triangle on September 4. MACD formed a death cross above the zero line on August 24, RSI formed a death cross and fell below 50 on August 28, and a daily-chart bear point appeared on August 27. Overall technical conditions were weak.

Over the most recent nine trading days, main-fund inflows occurred only on September 1 and September 8. Main-fund outflows totaled RMB 25.5217 million during the week of September 7–11, suggesting a “main funds exiting while retail investors absorb supply” structure. Turnover was only 1.26%, daily trading value was generally below RMB 100 million, and the stock was relatively illiquid. Institutional participation was 35.57%; none of the top ten tradable shareholders were public funds, social-security funds or QFII. Uncertainties include the unavailable actual BOLL values; divergent 52-week high/low data (Sina 8.19/4.92 versus AASTOCKS 8.310/5.040, a difference of approximately RMB 0.1); three concurrent PE definitions (dynamic 25.98x/TTM 31.82x/static 34.74x); questionable lag in margin-financing data, whose detail table covers March 24–30, 2026 and lacks a second-source cross-check; contradictory Northbound capital figures, which should not be used to draw conclusions; and shareholder-structure data as of June 30, 2026, which are more than two months old.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is only a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and historical technical indicators. Scenario weights are experience-based heuristic weights rather than statistical probabilities. This does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future performance.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50%; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): The price moves repeatedly within RMB 6.63–7.16. Trigger conditions include no new sector-level negative news, no further expansion of the MACD green bar and daily trading value remaining around RMB 40–70 million. In this scenario, MA5/MA10 at 6.93–6.99 would cap the upper end of the range, while 6.63 would be the lower-end observation point.
• Weak decline (medium weight, approximately 30%; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): A break below RMB 6.63 and close below that level would point toward RMB 6.20–6.30, with an extreme case testing RMB 6.08. Trigger conditions include continued main-fund outflows over the past 10 days, continued sector-wide weakness in agricultural chemicals and new negative company news. Current technical factors supporting this scenario are relatively concentrated: the MACD death cross above the zero line on August 24, RSI’s death cross and break below 50 on August 28, the moving-average death triangle on September 4, the daily bear point on August 27 and continued main-fund outflows.
• Stronger rebound (lower weight, approximately 20%; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): The stock rises above RMB 6.93–6.99, the MA5/MA10 zone, and moves toward RMB 7.14–7.16. Trigger conditions include increased volume, a simultaneous sector rebound or a catalyst announcement from the company. If the stock merely rebounds on declining volume toward RMB 7 and then retreats, this should be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal.

③ Capital-Flow and Liquidity Background

Turnover was 1.26% on September 11, and recent daily trading value ranged from approximately RMB 42–72 million, with RMB 41.78 million on September 10 and RMB 72.08 million on September 11. Five-day average volume was approximately 77,600 lots and 10-day average volume approximately 83,400 lots. Daily trading value has generally remained below RMB 100 million, indicating relatively thin liquidity. The order book was shallow: five-level bid and ask quantities were in the tens to hundreds of lots. Sina’s five-level data showed a bid-one price of RMB 6.71 for 501 lots and an ask-one price of RMB 6.72 for 446 lots. An order of several hundred thousand yuan could therefore visibly move the price, implying relatively high slippage risk.

Main funds recorded continuous net outflows over the past 10 days, approximately RMB 68.2075 million according to Jiufang Invest and RMB 70.0078 million under East Money’s methodology; the 20-day figure was approximately RMB 67.1004 million. Institutional participation was only 35.57%, classified as moderate control. Regarding shareholder concentration, data as of June 30, 2026, disclosed on August 27 and now more than two months old, showed 31,888 shareholders, down 19.85% from 39,785 on March 31. A decline in shareholder count generally indicates greater concentration. The top ten shareholders held 330 million shares, or 38.70% of total shares. Among the top ten tradable shareholders, there were no public funds, social-security funds or QFII, and two private funds. The three largest shareholders were the controlling party Guogou Industrial Holdings (21.34%) and the related state-owned-background party Anhui Ningguo Agricultural Means of Production (8.31%), with the remainder held by private funds and individuals.

The practical implication is that mainstream institutional capital—public funds, social-security funds and major Northbound investors—is largely absent. The free float is dominated by the controlling party, private funds and retail investors. Combined with turnover slightly above 1% and daily trading value below RMB 100 million, the stock lacks strong support from mainstream institutions in the short term, while the market impact cost and slippage of large orders are relatively high. Northbound capital figures conflict: Jiufang Invest reported holdings of 6.5542 million shares and a latest increase of 52,200 shares, while the top ten tradable-shareholder list as of June 30, 2026 showed Hong Kong Securities Clearing holding 8.4248 million shares, or 0.99%, down 855,200 shares from the previous period. The dates differ, so no conclusion should be drawn. Margin-financing data are also questionable: Jiufang’s detail table covers March 24–30, 2026, which does not match its text stating net financing purchases of RMB 347 million and cumulative financing balance of RMB 350 million. Without a second-source cross-check, these figures should not be cited as current.

Recent normal daily trading value has been approximately RMB 42–72 million, corresponding to roughly 60,000–110,000 lots. If daily trading value persistently increases to above RMB 100 million, equivalent to approximately 150,000 lots or more and 1.5–2x recent average volume, while the price also rises above RMB 6.93–6.99, this could be considered a signal that capital has entered and a rebound is gaining confirmation. Conversely, if trading value expands as the price declines, such as above RMB 80 million, the move would be more consistent with capital exiting and should be treated cautiously.

④ Points to Monitor (Observational Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether RMB 6.93–6.99, the MA5/MA10 zone, can be decisively recovered; this is the first short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
• Observe whether RMB 6.63, the September 11 low, is breached; if so, monitor RMB 6.21, the chip-support level, and RMB 6.08, the lower bound of the 70% cost range.
• Observe whether main funds shift from sustained net outflows to sustained net inflows and whether daily trading value expands above RMB 100 million.
• Also monitor the 5% price-movement limit under the ST designation, the overall direction of the agricultural-chemical and compound-fertilizer sectors, and any new developments in company news.

The above scenarios are based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and historical price and technical-indicator calculations. Short-term share prices may also be affected by news flow, capital flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations. The analysis does not guarantee future actual performance and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks themselves.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Factors

• Governance and compliance risk: The company was ordered by the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau to rectify its conduct, issued a warning and fined RMB 6 million for false records in the 2021 and 2023 annual reports. Former chairman Jin Guoqing and former general manager Jin Zhenghui were each fined RMB 3 million and each banned from the market for five years; total fines on responsible individuals were approximately RMB 9.6 million. The stock has been subject to other risk warning since March 31, 2026, under the ST Sierte name, with the daily price-movement limit reduced to 5%. Following the penalty, several media outlets reported that the case would provide a basis for civil claims for false representation and that the claims window remained open, creating uncertainty regarding future litigation payments and compliance costs.
• Audit and financial credibility risk: The 2025 annual report received a qualified audit opinion from ShineWing, and the company consequently corrected prior-period accounting errors and made retrospective adjustments. Net profit attributable to the parent in 2024 was adjusted from RMB 311.4 million to RMB 311.9 million. Comparability of historical financial data has been affected, and the year-on-year figures in both the 2026 interim report and 2025 annual report use the retrospectively adjusted basis. Changes in accounting definitions must be considered in year-on-year analysis.
• Phosphate resources and production constraints: Phosphate-rock sales have declined for two consecutive periods, falling to 577,600 tonnes in 2025 (-22.05%) and 250,300 tonnes in 2026H1 (-15.56%). The company attributed the decline to “insufficient remaining recoverable reserves at the Mingniwan phosphate mine.” The Yongwen mine, with approved capacity of 3 million tonnes/year, has not yet been constructed, and its Safety Facilities Design remains under review by the National Mine Safety Administration. If approval or construction progresses more slowly than expected, the contribution from the phosphate-mining segment, where profits are most concentrated, may remain constrained.
• Uncertainty regarding the progress and returns of projects under construction: As of 2026H1, construction in progress for Phase I of the Guizhou Phosphorus-Fluorine New Materials Mining-Chemical Integration Industrial Park amounted to RMB 264 million, with completion of only 21.54%. The Xuancheng Fine Phosphate Transformation and Upgrade Project has planned total investment of approximately RMB 866 million and still requires project approval or filing, environmental-impact, safety and energy-conservation approvals and a construction permit. The company explicitly stated that the project was not expected to have a material short-term impact on performance and did not constitute a material asset restructuring. The timing of capital investment and commissioning remains uncertain.
• Quarterly earnings volatility and cost risk: Q2 2026 quarterly net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 41.2733 million, down 27.7% year on year, while non-GAAP net profit was RMB 37.9424 million, down 32.19%. Q2 revenue increased only 3.92%, a significant slowdown from Q1. Media reports attributed the drag to a sharp rise in sulfur costs; this attribution was relayed by Securities Star, Economic Observer and other media and is based on a single source pending further verification.
• Major-shareholder pledge and controlling-shareholder restructuring risk: The largest shareholder, Guogou Industrial Holdings, owns 21.33%, of which 179,530,000 shares are pledged. As of September 4 and August 28, 2026, total pledged shares represented 21.03%, or 180 million shares, across two pledges. East Money also published a report referring to a pledge-triggered Eagle Eye high-risk rating. Another source stated that the execution period for the consolidated restructuring plan involving Guogou Investment and 42 other companies had been extended to December 28, 2026. This came from a Sange Pijang reproduction and is a secondary source requiring verification through a company or court announcement. The stability of the controlling-shareholder level is therefore uncertain.
• Liquidity and capital-flow risk: The stock closed at RMB 6.72 on September 11, 2026, with daily trading value of only RMB 72.08 million. Recent daily trading value ranged from approximately RMB 42–72 million, turnover was 1.26%, and main funds recorded continuous net outflows over the past 10 days. Main-fund outflows totaled RMB 25.5217 million during September 7–11. None of the top ten tradable shareholders were public funds, social-security funds or QFII, and institutional participation was only 35.57%. The stock is relatively illiquid, with order-book quantities of only tens to hundreds of lots; large transactions face elevated slippage and market-impact costs.
• Information-verification and data-definition risk: The 2026 “RMB 100–200 million repurchase, maximum repurchase price RMB 18.58” appeared only in an Interactive Easy investor question dated July 22, 2026 and could not be verified through a formal company announcement. It also differs from the September 12, 2025 public statement that the company was not considering a repurchase. The January 22, 2026 Decision Not to Prosecute appeared only in a third-party announcement list on gubit.cn and its contents were not verified. In addition, 52-week high/low data differ by source, PE has three concurrent definitions of dynamic 25.98x/TTM 31.82x/static 34.74x, Northbound capital figures point in opposite directions, margin-financing data may be stale, and East Money’s “break-net stock” label conflicts with the current PB of 1.10x. Differences in definitions and timeliness should be considered when citing these data.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

From a growth perspective, the company’s main investment themes are “phosphate resources + new-energy materials + phosphorus-fluorine integration.” Registration of the change to the Mingniwan phosphate-mine mining right was completed in June 2026. The mining depth was proposed to change from elevations of 650m to 80m to elevations of 730m to -135m, increasing recoverable reserves after transfer by 18.176 million tonnes while leaving cumulative identified resources of 36.098 million tonnes unchanged. The Yongwen mine has approved capacity of 3 million tonnes/year. Although it has not yet been constructed, its Safety Facilities Design has been submitted to the National Mine Safety Administration for review and approval, and it is a high-grade mine with a comprehensive phosphate grade above 30%.

The commencement of construction and completion of key approvals for Phase I of the Phosphorus-Fluorine New Materials Mining-Chemical Integration Industrial Park, together with planned investment of approximately RMB 866 million in the Xuancheng Fine Phosphate Transformation and Upgrade Project, forms the company’s main medium-term path for capacity expansion and product-mix upgrading. On the fertilizer side, the 17.03% year-on-year increase in monoammonium phosphate sales in 2026H1 was the core driver of the return to positive year-on-year revenue and earnings growth. Pyrite, including sulfur concentrate, sales of 66,600 tonnes in 2026H1 (+48.84%), together with the change in wording from “partially sold externally” to “mainly sold externally,” also provides some incremental upside.

At the same time, the pace and quality of delivery of this logic require careful assessment. The Yongwen mine has not been constructed and its safety approval remains under review. The Phosphorus-Fluorine industrial-park project was only 21.54% complete, while the Xuancheng project still requires project approval or filing, environmental-impact, safety and energy-conservation approvals and a construction permit. The company has stated that the project is not expected to have a material short-term impact on performance. Insufficient remaining recoverable reserves at the Mingniwan mine have already caused phosphate-rock sales to decline for consecutive periods and represent a real constraint on the current profit base. Earnings have also weakened at the quarterly level: Q2 quarterly net profit attributable to the parent fell 27.7% year on year, and the cost attribution came from a single-source media report.

Regarding institutional expectations, East Money F10 states that “there are currently no rating statistics for this stock.” The only recent research report, from Global Fortune Wealth Management dated May 28, 2026, provides no latest rating, target price or 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS forecasts. There is therefore no multi-institution consensus or sell-side target price, and revenue, net profit and EPS forecasts for the next two to three years cannot be provided.

Overall, the company has a clear growth logic, but the time horizon is relatively long and uncertainty is high. These factors must be weighed together with the governance and compliance discount. The 5% price-movement limit associated with the ST designation, the qualified 2025 audit opinion, the July 2026 administrative penalty and RMB 6 million fine, the pledge of 179,530,000 shares out of the 21.33% stake held by controlling shareholder Guogou Industrial Holdings, and the reported extension to December 28, 2026 of the restructuring period for Guogou Investment and 42 other companies all affect market valuation and risk appetite. The latter restructuring information is based on a single source and should be verified through a company or court announcement. The above represents an objective description and organization of the available data and logic and does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation.

Data Sources

• ST Sierte: 2025 Annual Report Summary - Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report Summary
• ST Sierte (002538) 2026 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis
• ST Sierte: 2025 Annual Report Summary_ Jiufang Invest - Global Indices
• ST Sierte: 2025 Annual Report Summary
• 002538 ST Sierte
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ) Operating Analysis-PC_HSF10 Data - (1) Main Businesses, Products and Uses
• China Securities Journal - Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd.
• ST Sierte (002538) 2026 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis-Securities Star
• Sierte (002538) - Compass Market - Index Display
• ST Sierte: 2025 Annual Report Summary - Home >
• Leading Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Accelerates Mine and New-Energy Project Construction
• Sierte (002538): Leading Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Accelerates Mine and New-Energy Project Construction
• China Stock Operating Analysis Table - Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. - December 31, 2025 - Tonghuashun
• ST Sierte: 2025 Annual Report_ Jiufang Invest - Guizhou Lufa Industrial Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary, is located in Kaiyang County, Guiyang, Guizhou
• ST Sierte: Announcement on the “Dual Improvement in Quality and Returns” Action Plan_Jiufang Invest - Global Indices
• 002538 ST Sierte - Main Businesses, Products and Uses
• ST Sierte (sz002538)
• Sierte - Company Review - Sierte (002538)
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd., Company (SHE:002538) Financials Overview - Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd
• SZ.002538 ST Sierte Fertilizer - A-share Real-Time Quote - Company Information
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd Co (002538) Financial Overview - Sierte (002538)
• ST Sierte 2025 Revenue of RMB 4.662 Billion, Up 8.87% YoY
• ST Sierte: 2025 Net Profit of RMB 165 Million; Proposed RMB 1.2 per 10 Shares
• Financial Report Express | ST Sierte (002538) 2025 Net Profit Nearly Halved; Audit Report Qualified
• ST Sierte (SZ002538) 2026 Interim Report
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd., Company: Financial Ratios (10 Years), Financial Data | MarketScreener Spain
• Sierte (SZSE:002538) - Sierte (SZSE:002538)
• Sierte (002538) Financial Indicators_Sina Finance
• Sierte (002538) - Operating Capability Analysis
• Sierte (002538) Financial Notes_Sina Finance
• Sierte (002538)_Company Announcements
• 2025 National Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry Rankings
• 2025 China Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry Data
• China Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry Association Releases 2025 Output Data
• 2025 National Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Rankings
• 2025 Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Rankings Released
• Sina Finance Article
• 2025 National Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry Rankings
• China Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry Association Releases 2025 Output Data
• 2025 Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Rankings Released at Jingmen
• Fertilizer Trends
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ) Detailed F9 Data
• ST Sierte (002538)_Company Overview
• ST Sierte (002538) Weekly Review
• ST Sierte: 6.72 -2.75% -0.19 002538 Sohu Securities
• [Sierte [002538] - Stock](https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E5%8F%B8%E5%B0%94%E7%89%B9[002538]/19152624#1)
• Weekly Review (September 7–11): ST Sierte Fell 3.31%
• ST Sierte (002538) Main Business
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Co Ltd Class A (002538)
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd., Company: Shareholder Management and Company Profile
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd., Company: Share Price, Shenzhen Stock Exchange
• Sierte (002538) Income Statement
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd. Reports 2024 Full-Year Earnings
• ST Sierte: 2025 Net Profit of RMB 165 Million; Proposed RMB 1.2 per 10 Shares
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd. Income Statement – Yahoo Finance
• ST Sierte (002538) Financial Indicators
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ) Earnings Forecast
• 002538 ST Sierte
• 002538 ST Sierte - Note
• Research Report Metrics - Securities Star
• ST Sierte Outlook: Phosphate Resources + New-Energy Projects
• ST Sierte: 2026 Interim Report Summary
• ST Sierte First-Half Revenue and Net Profit Growth
• ST Sierte: 2026 Interim Report Summary
• ST Sierte 2026H1 Revenue and Net Profit
• ST Sierte: 2026 Interim Report Summary
• ST Sierte 2026H1 Net Profit
• Sierte Releases Interim Report
• Sierte Releases Interim Report
• Sierte Releases Interim Report
• ST Sierte Company Overview
• ST Sierte 6.72 -2.75%
• ST Sierte Market Data
• ST Sierte Market Data, September 11, 2026
• ST Sierte Stock Price and Real-Time Data
• ST Sierte Latest Price and Market Data
• e Company Stock Information
• ST Sierte 6.72 -2.75% Daily Trade Details
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ) Valuation and Financial Statistics
• ST Sierte (002538) Operating Analysis
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ) Operating Analysis
• ST Sierte 6.72 -2.75% Sohu Securities
• China Securities Journal - Announcement on Receipt of the Administrative Penalty Decision
• ST Sierte: Progress Announcement on the “Dual Improvement in Quality and Returns” Action Plan
• ST Sierte: Progress Announcement on the “Dual Improvement in Quality and Returns” Action Plan
• ST Sierte: Progress Announcement on the “Dual Improvement in Quality and Returns” Action Plan
• ST Sierte Fined RMB 6 Million for False Annual-Report Records
• ST Sierte: Seventh Board of Directors, Sixth Meeting Resolution
• China Securities Journal - Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd.
• ST Sierte: Progress Announcement on the “Dual Improvement in Quality and Returns” Action Plan
• China Securities Journal - Resolution of the Seventh Board of Directors, Fifth Extraordinary Meeting
• ST Sierte 2026 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis
• ST Sierte Company News
• ST Sierte (002538)
• ST Sierte (002538) - Overview
• AASTOCKS Financial News
• ST Sierte Company Announcements
• ST Sierte 2026 Interim Report
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ)
• ST Sierte News
• ST Sierte Announcement
• China Securities Journal - Progress Announcement on Share-Purchase Plan by Certain Directors and Senior Executives
• Sierte: Completion Announcement for Share-Purchase Plan
• Guogou Industrial Holdings Shareholding Changes
• ST Sierte
• Letter to the Board of Directors of Sierte
• Q&A
• ST Sierte Fraud Case
• Anhui Sierte Fined RMB 6 Million
• Sierte Receives Advance Notice of Administrative Penalty and Market Ban
• Trading Halt! 002538 to Become ST
• 002538 to Become ST from March 31
• ST Sierte (002538)_News
• 002538 to Become ST - Securities Star
• Sierte Receives Advance Notice of Administrative Penalty and Market Ban
• Sierte Receives Advance Notice of Administrative Penalty and Market Ban
• ST Sierte Company Overview
• e Company Stock Information, September 11, 2026
• ST Sierte 6.72 -2.75%_Jiufang Invest
• 2026H1 Financial Reports: Status of Listed Companies in the Metal Sulfur Industry
• ST Sierte (002538) Capital Flows
• ST Sierte Main-Fund Net Sales on September 10
• ST Sierte 6.72 -2.75%_Jiufang Invest
• ST Sierte Thousands of Stocks Review
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ) - Quick Quote
• ST Sierte Historical DDX Data
• ST Sierte Main-Fund Net Sales on September 2
• ST Sierte Latest Price and Market Data
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd Co Technical Analysis
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ) Technical Chart
• ST Sierte (002538) Technical Analysis
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd Co Chart
• ST Sierte -0.19
• Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Technical Analysis
• ST Sierte Name Change
• ST Sierte Announcement
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ): 2026 Interim Net Profit of RMB 110 Million
• ST Sierte Share Capital and Shareholders
• ST Sierte (002538.SZ): 2026 Interim Net Profit of RMB 110 Million
• ST Sierte (002538)
• ST Sierte Institutional and Fund Holdings
• Who Owns Sierte? Shareholders of 002538
• ST Sierte Shareholder List

This report was automatically searched, organized and generated by AI based on publicly available information. The information is current through the September 11, 2026 close (Friday). Unless otherwise stated, prices and market data are as of the September 11, 2026 close; shareholder structure is based on the June 30, 2026 reporting period and may contain timing differences. Specific data should be confirmed against the company’s formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is intended solely as an information compilation and research reference and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.