Stanley Agricultural Group Co., Ltd. (002588)

Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Phosphate Compound Fertilizer, Compound Fertilizer and Phosphorus Chemicals | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Data as of the close on September 11, 2026; research reference time September 13, 2026; some market data differ by approximately RMB 0.01 due to price adjustment conventions, data delays and rounding.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Stanley presented "revenue growth with pressure on profit and cash flow" in the first half of 2026: operating revenue of RMB 6.933 billion, up 8.48% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 544 million, down 10.29% year-on-year; net cash flow from operating activities of -RMB 1.145 billion, compared with -RMB 104 million in the same period last year. The profit decline was mainly related to profitability fluctuations in the phosphate fertilizer business, rising prices of raw materials such as sulfur, and a sharp decrease in investment income, among which the equity-method investment income from the associate company Hubei Yihua Songzi Fertilizer turned from a profit in the same period last year to a loss of RMB 15.1852 million.

The company's foundation remains its compound fertilizer brand, nationwide channels and agrochemical services. In 2025, compound fertilizer sales volume was 3.4783 million tons, up 3.94% year-on-year, and phosphate compound fertilizer sales volume was 3.9109 million tons, up 11.33% year-on-year; full-year operating revenue was RMB 12.283 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.033 billion, up 19.69% and 25.07% year-on-year respectively. However, material costs account for 82.77% of phosphate compound fertilizer costs, making the company relatively sensitive to the prices of raw materials such as urea, monoammonium phosphate, potassium chloride, sulfur and synthetic ammonia, and the overall gross margin in 2025 was approximately 18.15%, still lagging behind higher-margin resource-based phosphorus chemical enterprises.

Industrial chain extension projects continue to advance. The iron phosphate facility has entered the trial production stage, the aluminum fluoride project is expected to enter trial production in October to November 2026, and the Guangxi 1-million-ton-per-year new green fertilizer project has basically completed construction. However, projects such as iron phosphate and aluminum fluoride have not yet formed a clear profit contribution, and the phosphogypsum-to-sulfuric-acid project is still in the preliminary demonstration and approval preparation stage, with subsequent uncertainties in commissioning progress, product quality and market development.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price was RMB 7.82, with a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 9.28x and a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.16x, a relatively low valuation; however, the share price is below MA5, MA10 and MA20 and lies between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, and main funds recorded a cumulative net outflow of approximately RMB 95.35 million over the past 10 trading days, indicating a weak technical picture and weak short-term capital flows. The average market institution forecast for 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is RMB 1.063 billion, but the forecast range is RMB 922 million to RMB 1.192 billion, indicating relatively notable divergence in earnings expectations.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Compound fertilizer: including sulfur-based compound fertilizer, chlorine-based compound fertilizer, high-tower compound fertilizer, new-type fertilizer, water-soluble fertilizer, slow/controlled-release fertilizer, nitro fertilizer, medium and trace element fertilizer, seaweed fertilizer, biological fertilizer, organic-inorganic compound fertilizer, crop-specific fertilizer and horticultural fertilizer, mainly targeting field crops such as corn, wheat and rice as well as cash crops such as peanuts, melons and fruits, vegetables and horticultural flowers.
• Phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemicals: mainly producing agricultural-grade monoammonium phosphate and industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, and extending to products such as refined phosphoric acid and iron phosphate.
• New-type fertilizer and horticultural fertilizer: including specialty fertilizer, water-soluble fertilizer, slow/controlled-release fertilizer and horticultural fertilizer, with sales expanded through agrochemical services and crop solutions.
• Channels and agrochemical services: owns brands such as "Stanley" and "San'an", with a sales network covering 32 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions nationwide, more than 200,000 terminal outlets, and nearly 6,000 first-tier distributors and large growers, and provides soil testing, formula and fertilization guidance services through earthworm soil testing laboratories, agrochemical service teams and demonstration fields.
• Phosphorus chemical capacity: as of December 31, 2025, designed compound fertilizer capacity of 5.9 million tons/year, ammonium phosphate of 1 million tons/year, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate of 100,000 tons/year, refined phosphoric acid of 100,000 tons/year, and iron phosphate of 50,000 tons/year; the corresponding capacity utilization rates were 63.31%, 70.99%, 77.69%, 82.05% and 0% respectively.

2.3 Position in the Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

Stanley is positioned in the lower-middle reaches of the phosphate compound fertilizer industrial chain: upstream it connects to resources and basic chemical raw materials such as urea, phosphate rock, monoammonium phosphate, sulfur, potash fertilizer and synthetic ammonia; in the middle reaches it produces monoammonium phosphate, compound fertilizer, new-type fertilizer and phosphorus chemical products; and downstream it connects to agricultural material distributors, retail outlets, large growers and agricultural business entities. Relying on production bases such as Songzi in Hubei and Chengde in Hebei, the company has formed a comprehensive competitive model of "scale manufacturing + brand channels + agrochemical services", but the 2025 annual report did not disclose clear proprietary phosphate rock reserve data, so it should not be classified as a phosphate rock resource-based enterprise.

• Main inputs for compound fertilizer and phosphorus chemicals include urea, monoammonium phosphate, potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, sulfur, phosphate rock, synthetic ammonia, as well as energy, fuel and packaging materials.
• In 2025, material costs in the company's phosphate compound fertilizer operating costs were RMB 8.321 billion, accounting for 82.77% of manufacturing phosphate compound fertilizer costs. The relatively high share of material costs makes profitability relatively sensitive to the prices of resource products such as urea, monoammonium phosphate, potassium chloride, sulfur and synthetic ammonia.
• The company has certain phosphate fertilizer capacity, which can reduce the impact of some externally purchased monoammonium phosphate on compound fertilizer production; however, key raw materials such as potash fertilizer, sulfur and urea still have strong external procurement attributes, and the company as a whole lacks complete control over upstream bulk raw material prices.
• In 2025, purchases from the top five suppliers amounted to RMB 1.320 billion, accounting for 13.87% of total annual purchases; the specific names of suppliers were disclosed anonymously, making it impossible to further judge the degree of dependence on a single supplier.
• The company has phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical capacity, but the 2025 annual report did not disclose clear proprietary phosphate rock reserve data. Therefore, its upstream advantage is more accurately reflected as phosphate fertilizer capacity and industrial chain synergy, rather than a phosphate rock resource advantage verified by reserve data.
• The company mainly adopts a distribution model. In 2025, distribution revenue was RMB 9.833 billion, accounting for approximately 80.05% of main manufacturing revenue; direct sales and other revenue was RMB 2.450 billion, accounting for approximately 19.95%.
• Downstream customers mainly include regional agricultural material distributors, grassroots agricultural material retail outlets, large growers, family farms, farmer professional cooperatives, and grain and cash crop growers.
• In 2025, total sales to the top five customers amounted to RMB 749 million, accounting for 6.10% of total annual sales; sales to the single largest customer accounted for 2.08% of total annual sales. Customer concentration is low, and there is no obvious dependence on a single large customer. The above concentration data are based on the company's 2025 annual report, and customer names were disclosed anonymously, making it impossible to judge the specific industry position of customers.
• Fertilizer products are highly standardized, and farmers and distributors are price-sensitive, making it usually difficult for enterprises to fully pass on raw material price increases; Stanley's brand recognition, nationwide channels and agrochemical services can improve sales stability through brand premiums, product differentiation and channel stickiness.
• With the increase in large-scale planting, downstream demand has shifted from simply purchasing fertilizer to "products + formulas + technical services + crop solutions", which is conducive to the expansion of the company's specialty fertilizer, new-type fertilizer and agrochemical service businesses.
• As of December 31, 2025, the company's accounts receivable were RMB 97.1094 million, accounting for approximately 0.08% of operating revenue; prepayments were RMB 495 million, accounting for approximately 4.03% of operating revenue; accounts payable were RMB 858 million, accounting for approximately 6.98% of operating revenue; notes payable were RMB 1.408 billion; and cash received from sales of goods and provision of services was RMB 13.856 billion, higher than current operating revenue of RMB 12.283 billion. Accounts receivable are relatively low compared with revenue, and the top five accounts receivable customers accounted for 73.41% of total accounts receivable, indicating that the sales process as a whole does not obviously rely on credit sales and that channel collections are relatively good; however, low accounts receivable may also be affected by cash sales, advance receipts, note settlement and channel settlement methods, and it cannot be concluded on this basis that the company has absolute terminal pricing power. Prepayments are significantly higher than accounts receivable, reflecting a certain occupation of funds for raw material procurement, project construction or supply chain stocking; the combined scale of accounts payable and notes payable is relatively large, providing the company with certain supplier credit financing support.
• On the upstream side, in 2025 purchases from the top five suppliers accounted for 13.87% of total annual purchases, a low concentration, but supplier names were disclosed anonymously, making it impossible to judge dependence on a single supplier. On the downstream side, in 2025 sales to the top five customers accounted for 6.10% of total annual sales, with the single largest customer accounting for 2.08%, indicating low customer concentration. The above data are all based on the 2025 annual period; the research notes did not provide customer and supplier concentration for other years for cross-comparison, and the latest annual report shall prevail for specifics.

Stanley is located in the lower-middle reaches of the phosphate compound fertilizer industrial chain and is a midstream processing and brand-channel fertilizer enterprise driven by "scale manufacturing + brand channels + agrochemical services", rather than an upstream phosphate rock resource-based high-margin enterprise or a consumer goods company relying entirely on terminal brand premiums. The key to further improving profit margins lies in increasing compound fertilizer capacity utilization, raising the proportion of new-type fertilizer, specialty fertilizer, water-soluble fertilizer and horticultural fertilizer, expanding the proportion of internal phosphate fertilizer matching, strengthening long-term procurement and inventory management of raw materials such as urea, sulfur and potash fertilizer, reducing transportation costs and increasing the profit contribution of phosphorus chemical projects.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Data as of September 11, 2026; as of September 13, 2026, the latest publicly disclosed periodic financial report was the 2026 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 504 million, down 11.94% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were RMB 0.47, down 11.32% year-on-year. In the first half of 2026, the sales gross margin was approximately 18.07%, and the sales net margin was approximately 7.92%; net cash flow from operating activities was -RMB 1.145 billion, compared with -RMB 104 million in the same period of 2025. In 2025, the sales gross margin was 18.15%, the sales net margin was 8.56%, and the weighted average return on equity was 14.40%.

The company's latest financial report shows revenue growth and profit decline. The profit decline in the first half of 2026 was mainly affected by rising prices of raw materials such as sulfur and pressure on the profitability of the phosphate fertilizer business; in the second quarter alone, operating revenue was RMB 2.873 billion, down 3.77% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 203 million, down 36.36% year-on-year. Operating cash flow was significantly negative, which the company explained was mainly related to opening advance receipts, increased cash paid for purchased goods, and a high base of export collections in the same period last year, and attention still needs to be paid to short-term earnings quality and working capital pressure. The 2025 performance growth was mainly affected by increased compound fertilizer sales volume, higher phosphate fertilizer sales volume and selling prices, and newly added refined acid sales.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

Earnings forecasts as of September 11, 2026, mainly sourced from the Hithink RoyalFlush Stanley earnings forecast page and brokerage research report summaries. Major individual institutional forecasts include: Southwest Securities expects net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 of RMB 922 million, RMB 1.159 billion and RMB 1.390 billion, with EPS of RMB 0.80, RMB 1.01 and RMB 1.21; Guosen Securities expects RMB 971 million, RMB 1.164 billion and RMB 1.384 billion, with EPS of RMB 0.84, RMB 1.01 and RMB 1.20; China Merchants Securities expects RMB 950 million, RMB 1.168 billion and RMB 1.408 billion, with EPS of RMB 0.82, RMB 1.01 and RMB 1.22; Industrial Securities expects RMB 1.091 billion, RMB 1.264 billion and RMB 1.483 billion, with EPS of RMB 0.95, RMB 1.10 and RMB 1.29; Sealand Securities expects RMB 1.168 billion, RMB 1.394 billion and RMB 1.599 billion, with EPS of RMB 1.01, RMB 1.21 and RMB 1.39. Different institutions show obvious divergence in 2026 earnings forecasts.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of the close on September 11, 2026, the share price was approximately RMB 7.82, total share capital was approximately 1.152 billion shares, total market value was approximately RMB 9.008 billion, circulating market value was approximately RMB 6.715 billion, and the price-to-book ratio was approximately 1.16x. Data from Cfi.cn show a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 9.28x and a price-to-earnings ratio excluding non-recurring items of approximately 10.40x. Based on full-year 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.033 billion, deducting first-half 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 607 million and adding back first-half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 544 million, TTM net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately RMB 971 million, corresponding to a TTM PE of approximately 9.3x. Based on the average forecast of 7 institutions on Hithink RoyalFlush, forecast PE for 2026-2028 is approximately 8.5x, 7.1x and 6.1x; based on Southwest Securities forecasts it is approximately 9.8x, 7.8x and 6.5x; based on China Merchants Securities forecasts it is approximately 9.5x, 7.7x and 6.4x. Overall valuation is at a relatively low level, but the low valuation also reflects risks such as raw material prices, profitability fluctuations in the phosphate fertilizer business and the pace of profit realization from new projects. Multi-institution operating revenue forecasts for 2027-2028 were not fully disclosed and should not be used as a cross-verified consensus expectation.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Semi-Annual Results: Revenue Growth, Decline in Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders

The company disclosed its 2026 semi-annual report on August 20, 2026. In the first half of 2026, it achieved operating revenue of RMB 6.93285 billion, up 8.48% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB 544.35 million, down 10.29% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of RMB 503.59 million, down 11.94% year-on-year; and net cash flow from operating activities of -RMB 1.14464 billion, compared with -RMB 104.34 million in the same period last year. The company stated that the production, sales volume and gross profit of the compound fertilizer business remained generally stable, and the profit decline was mainly affected by operating fluctuations in the phosphate fertilizer business and a year-on-year decline in investment income.

4.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Business and Associate Company Investment Income Dragged on Profit

The company's investor relations activity record dated August 21, 2026 shows that the associate company Hubei Yihua Songzi Fertilizer Co., Ltd., affected by adjustments to phosphate fertilizer export policies, domestic sales price caps and rising raw material costs, saw a significant year-on-year decline in profit. The company's equity-method investment income from Hubei Yihua Songzi Fertilizer was -RMB 15.1852 million, compared with positive in the same period last year; the company's total investment income fell from approximately RMB 509.3 million in the same period last year to approximately RMB 4.2396 million in the current period, creating a relatively large drag on the decline in net profit attributable to shareholders.

4.3 No New Earnings Preview or Earnings Flash Report Found as of September 13, 2026

As of September 13, 2026, no newly released earnings preview or earnings flash report for the first three quarters of 2026 was found. The latest formal performance data currently available is still the 2026 semi-annual report, covering the period from January 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026.

4.4 Partial Release and Re-Pledge of Shares by Controlling Shareholder Gao Jinhua

The company disclosed the "Announcement on Partial Release and Re-Pledge of Shares by the Controlling Shareholder" on August 13, 2026, announcement number 2026-028. One of the controlling shareholders, Gao Jinhua, released a pledge of 50 million shares on August 11, 2026, accounting for 12.85% of the shares he held and 4.34% of the company's total share capital; and re-pledged 35.5 million shares on August 12, 2026, accounting for 9.12% of the shares he held and 3.08% of the company's total share capital. The pledgee was China Merchants Securities, and the pledge purpose was to supplement working capital.

4.5 Cumulative Pledging by Controlling Shareholders and Concerted Parties

After completion of the pledge matters, Gao Jinhua held 389.05 million shares of the company, a shareholding ratio of 33.77%, and pledged shares increased to 66.1667 million shares, accounting for 17.01% of the shares he held and 5.74% of the company's total share capital. The controlling shareholders and their concerted parties together held 604.47 million shares, accounting for 52.48% of the company's total share capital; total pledged shares were 152.32 million, accounting for 25.20% of their total shareholding and 13.22% of the company's total share capital. The company announced that the above pledges would not lead to a change in actual control, that there was no liquidation risk, and that they would not have an adverse impact on the company's production and operations or corporate governance.

4.6 No New Repurchases, Increases in Holdings or Reductions in Holdings Found Recently

As of September 13, 2026, no new share repurchase plan or repurchase progress announcement by the company during the period from August 2026 to September 13, 2026 was found; the semi-annual report's "implementation progress of reducing repurchased shares through centralized bidding" showed not applicable. During the same period, no new reduction plans, increase plans or increase implementation announcements were found from controlling shareholders, actual controllers, or directors and senior executives. Changes in Gao Jinhua's pledges are not equivalent to an increase or reduction in holdings.

4.7 Phased Progress in Industrial Chain Projects

The company's investor relations activity disclosure on August 21, 2026 showed: the iron phosphate facility of Songzi Stanley Yihua New Materials Company has entered the trial production stage, and facility operation and product quality are generally in line with expectations, with products mainly targeting downstream lithium iron phosphate customers; the aluminum fluoride project of Hubei Fluorui Chemical Co., Ltd. is expected to enter trial production in October to November 2026; the Guangxi 1-million-ton-per-year new green fertilizer project has basically completed construction; and the phosphogypsum-to-sulfuric-acid project is still in the preliminary stage of process investigation, design coordination and project approval, with the specific investment scale and implementation pace not yet determined. The above projects are internal investment construction and industrial chain extension, and do not mean that mergers and acquisitions have been completed or that a certain profit contribution has been formed.

4.8 No New Major M&A, Restructuring or Asset Transaction Announcements Found

As of September 13, 2026, no new major M&A, asset acquisition, equity sale or major restructuring announcements by the company during the period from August 2026 to September 13, 2026 were found.

4.9 Impact of Phosphate Fertilizer Policy and Raw Material Prices on Operations

The company's investor relations activities stated that in the first half of 2026, the phosphate fertilizer business was significantly affected by export policy adjustments and domestic sales price caps, with some products under profitability pressure; under the policy orientation of ensuring domestic supply, phosphate fertilizer exports in the short term will still mainly prioritize domestic supply, and industry profitability depends on the decline in raw material prices and the transmission of costs downstream. Affected by factors such as international geopolitical conflicts, sulfur prices rose sharply at one point in the first half of 2026, impacting the cost of the phosphate fertilizer business; recently sulfur and sulfuric acid prices have retreated somewhat from highs, and ore prices have also loosened, with cost-side pressure easing marginally compared with the second quarter. The above information mainly comes from the company's investor relations activity records and represents the company's explanation and judgment of the operating environment.

4.10 No Major Regulatory Penalties or Investigation Matters Against the Company Found

As of September 13, 2026, no major regulatory penalties, inquiries, formal investigations or abnormal trading regulatory announcements against Stanley were found.

4.11 2025 Annual Equity Distribution Completed, No Dividend for the First Half of 2026

The company's 2025 annual equity distribution was implemented in June 2026, with a cash dividend of RMB 2.70 per 10 shares, a record date of June 10, 2026, and an ex-rights/ex-dividend date of June 11, 2026. The summary of the 2026 semi-annual report shows that the semi-annual profit distribution plan deliberated by the board was not to distribute cash dividends, not to issue bonus shares, and not to increase share capital from capital reserves.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Stanley closed at RMB 7.82, at the lower edge of the 52-week price range of RMB 7.62-11.85 and approximately RMB 0.20 from the 52-week low. The share price is below MA5, MA10 and MA20 and lies between the Bollinger middle band of RMB 8.13 and lower band of RMB 7.50, with moving average and position indicators showing short-term weakness. MACD remains below the zero axis but the histogram is positive, reflecting a repair structure within weakness and not yet confirmation of a trend reversal; RSI6 is 34.8, close to the weak zone but not entering the traditional oversold zone. After a high-volume rebound on September 8, the stock fell continuously, and main funds recorded continuous net outflows over the past 5 trading days, indicating relatively obvious short-term selling pressure and insufficient capital support.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario analysis based on the closing data of September 11, 2026, historical prices and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor is it a deterministic forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high weight, approximately 50%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical indicators and fund flows, not a statistical probability): observation range approximately RMB 7.75-8.20. Trigger conditions include the share price holding the RMB 7.75-7.90 area, main fund net outflows narrowing significantly, turnover remaining at approximately RMB 150 million-RMB 250 million, and no obvious negative industry or company news. Technically, it may fluctuate around RMB 7.80 and attempt to repair to RMB 8.13-8.16, but if volume is insufficient, RMB 8.10-8.20 may still constitute resistance.
• Weaker downside (medium weight, approximately 30%; a subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): observation range approximately RMB 7.50-7.75. Trigger conditions include an effective break below the RMB 7.75 area, single-day turnover significantly higher than recent normal levels, continued continuous net outflows of main funds, or synchronized weakness in the basic chemicals/agrochemical sector. Technically, attention can be paid to the Bollinger lower band at RMB 7.50 and the 52-week low around RMB 7.62; if the RMB 7.50-7.65 area is also broken below with volume, short-term weakness may continue further.
• Rebound strengthening (relatively low weight, approximately 20%; a subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): observation range approximately RMB 8.20-8.50. Trigger conditions include the share price regaining the Bollinger middle band at RMB 8.13 and MA20 and further breaking above RMB 8.20, turnover continuing to exceed the recent average, main funds turning from continuous net outflows to net inflows, and a supportive sector environment. If it effectively breaks above RMB 8.20, the RMB 8.30-8.50 range can be further observed; if volume does not expand simultaneously, the reliability of the breakout is weak, and it may still fall back to around RMB 8.00.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was 2.78% and turnover was RMB 187 million; turnover over the past 5 trading days was approximately RMB 152 million-RMB 346 million, averaging approximately RMB 233 million, with a turnover rate of approximately 2.18%-4.81%, averaging approximately 3.28%, making it a stock with certain liquidity but not a high-frequency actively traded stock. Main funds recorded a cumulative net outflow of approximately RMB 95.35 million over the past 10 trading days and continuous net outflows over the past 5 trading days. In terms of shareholder data, as of June 30, 2026, the number of shareholders was approximately 38,300, a decrease of 1,617 households or 4.05% from March 31, 2026; as of March 31, 2026, the top ten circulating shareholders together held approximately 47.09%, mainly controlling shareholders and related natural persons, with identifiable institutional holdings such as public funds and private funds totaling approximately 6.86%. Because the top ten circulating shareholder data is based on the 2026 first-quarter report and is about five and a half months from the current market, actual institutional holdings and shareholder structure may have changed. The above structure means chip concentration is relatively high but mainstream institutional holdings are relatively limited, and real-time capital direction cannot be inferred on this basis; combined with recent turnover and turnover rate, the stock has certain trading liquidity, but short-term prices are still affected by continuous net outflows of funds.

Reviewable volume confirmation signals: if turnover reaches or exceeds approximately RMB 300 million for two consecutive days in the coming week, and the share price simultaneously regains RMB 8.13-8.20 and main funds no longer record continuous net outflows, this can be regarded as an observation signal of improved short-term capital support; if volume expansion occurs after a break below RMB 7.75, it should be interpreted as release of selling pressure rather than a pure signal of capital entry.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operating Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 7.75-7.90 area can form effective support; if it breaks below with volume, pay attention to the strong support area of RMB 7.50-7.65.
• Observe whether the share price can regain the dense area of moving averages and the Bollinger middle band at RMB 8.13-8.20, and whether this is accompanied by increased turnover.
• Observe whether the continuous net outflows of main funds over the past 5 trading days narrow or turn into net inflows.
• Observe whether turnover can reach or exceed approximately RMB 300 million for two consecutive days and synchronize with an upward price breakout. The above are all observation ideas, not buy, sell or hold instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on the closing data of September 11, 2026 and historical prices and technical indicator calculations. Short-term share prices are also affected by multiple factors such as news, capital flows and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The compound fertilizer industry generally presents "total overcapacity, insufficient high-quality capacity, and structural tight balance", with the combined market share of the top three enterprises still less than 30%; higher requirements for environmental protection, energy consumption, safety production and capital are accelerating the exit of small and medium-sized capacity. The phosphate fertilizer industry has stronger resource, facility and policy constraints, and phosphate rock reserves and self-sufficiency rates, sulfur and synthetic ammonia security, large-scale continuous facilities, comprehensive utilization of phosphogypsum, and environmental and energy compliance capabilities are important competitive factors. The above data on the combined market share of the top three in the industry comes from the industry judgment in Stanley's 2025 annual report; the report did not provide a specific third-party statistical table in that paragraph, and it is based on the company's annual report disclosure.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The compound fertilizer industry mainly forms three types of participants: national leading enterprises, strong regional enterprises and small and medium-sized production enterprises, with competition shifting from pure price competition to competition in brands, channel penetration, specialty fertilizer and new-type fertilizer R&D, agrochemical services, raw material security, industrial chain integration and logistics efficiency.
• New phosphate fertilizer capacity is subject to relatively strong policy constraints, and industry supply is relatively rigid; enterprises with phosphate rock resources and a complete phosphorus chemical industrial chain usually have stronger cost and cyclical resilience than pure compound fertilizer processing enterprises.
• Stanley supplements phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical capacity through bases such as Songzi and Chengde and has certain integration synergy, but compared with enterprises with relatively strong phosphate rock resource reserves and mining capabilities, its resource-end barriers remain relatively weak.
• Different companies may use different statistical calibers for compound fertilizer capacity, ammonium phosphate capacity and phosphate compound fertilizer sales volume, and company data cannot be simply added together for comparison.

6.3 Major Competitors

Stanley's core competitiveness lies in "brand + nationwide production bases + distributor network + agrochemical services + product matrix", and it is extending into phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemicals through bases such as Songzi and Chengde. Compared with Xinyangfeng, Stanley's scale and phosphate rock resource integration capabilities are relatively weaker, but its terminal channels and agrochemical services are more prominent; compared with Yuntianhua, Stanley's resource and chemical attributes are weaker, but its compound fertilizer brand, product matrix and channel depth are stronger; compared with Kingenta, Stanley has more advantages in operating scale, brand channel stability and nationwide coverage; compared with Batian, Stanley's resource attributes are weaker, but its compound fertilizer volume and terminal operating capabilities are stronger; compared with Wintrue Holding, Stanley is more focused on compound fertilizer brands, channels and services, while Wintrue Holding is more focused on comprehensive chemical integration.

7. Risk Warnings

• Raw material price increase risk: in the first half of 2026, sulfur prices rose sharply at one point, already impacting the cost of the phosphate fertilizer business; the company's phosphate compound fertilizer material costs account for 82.77% of related costs, while key raw materials such as urea, potassium chloride, sulfur and synthetic ammonia still have strong external procurement attributes, and cost increases may not be passed downstream in a timely manner.
• Phosphate fertilizer policy and profitability fluctuation risk: Hubei Yihua Songzi Fertilizer, affected by phosphate fertilizer export policy adjustments, domestic sales price caps and rising raw material costs, saw equity-method investment income turn to -RMB 15.1852 million in the first half of 2026; if export and domestic supply policies continue to suppress product prices, the phosphate fertilizer business and related investment income may continue to drag on profit.
• Operating cash flow and working capital risk: in the first half of 2026, net cash flow from operating activities was -RMB 1.145 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year; the company explained this involved opening advance receipts, increased cash paid for purchased goods and a high base of export collections in the same period last year, but prepayments accounted for approximately 4.03% of 2025 operating revenue, and procurement and stocking may still occupy funds.
• New project commissioning and profit realization risk: the iron phosphate facility is currently in the trial production stage, the aluminum fluoride project is still expected to enter trial production in October to November 2026, and although the Guangxi green fertilizer project has basically completed construction, no certain profit contribution has been disclosed; projects may face pressure from ramp-up progress, product quality, customer certification, market prices and depreciation costs.
• Relatively insufficient resource security risk: the company has capacity for ammonium phosphate and refined phosphoric acid, but the 2025 annual report did not disclose clear proprietary phosphate rock reserve data. Compared with competitors with relatively strong phosphate rock resources and mining capabilities, the company's upstream resource cost and cyclical resilience are relatively limited.
• Risk that main business profit margin improvement falls short of expectations: in 2025, overall gross margin was approximately 18.15%, and the gross margin of new-type fertilizer and other businesses was 17.01%, lower than the 20.04% of chlorine-based compound fertilizer; if the proportion of new-type fertilizer, specialty fertilizer and phosphorus chemical products increases less than expected, or costs such as fuel and depreciation rise due to new projects, overall profit margin may continue to come under pressure.
• Controlling shareholder share pledge risk: after completion of the pledge matters, shares pledged by the controlling shareholders and concerted parties together accounted for 25.20% of their total shareholding and 13.22% of the company's total share capital; the company announced that there is currently no risk of control change or liquidation, but if the share price continues to decline, attention still needs to be paid to pledge guarantees and changes in shareholder liquidity.
• Share price and capital flow weakness risk: as of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 7.82, below multiple short-term moving averages, main funds recorded continuous net outflows over the past 5 trading days, and approximately 88.1% of estimated chips were in a floating loss state; if the share price breaks below the support area of RMB 7.50 to RMB 7.65 with volume, short-term volatility and downside pressure may further increase.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company's medium- and long-term growth logic mainly comes from the continued expansion of compound fertilizer sales volume and channel coverage, the ramp-up of products such as phosphate fertilizer and refined acid, and an increase in the proportion of new-type fertilizer, specialty fertilizer and agrochemical services. Its sales network across 32 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, more than 200,000 terminal outlets and low customer concentration help maintain sales stability; at the same time, bases such as Songzi and Chengde provide certain phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical synergy.

Short-term performance is still in a profit repair stage. In the first half of 2026, the production, sales volume and gross profit of the compound fertilizer business were generally stable, but phosphate fertilizer export policy adjustments, domestic sales price caps and raw material increases suppressed related business profits, and the sharp year-on-year decline in investment income also amplified fluctuations in net profit attributable to shareholders. If cost pressures such as sulfur and ore continue to ease, and the iron phosphate, aluminum fluoride and green fertilizer projects advance as planned, profitability is expected to gradually improve; however, the pace of project contribution and changes in raw material prices remain key variables for performance realization.

From a valuation perspective, the company's current price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio are at relatively low levels, but the low valuation also reflects cyclical fluctuations in the phosphate fertilizer business, relatively weaker resource-end positioning compared with competitors with proprietary phosphate rock, a phased weakening of cash flow, and uncertainty over new project profitability. Going forward, key attention should be paid to phosphate fertilizer spreads and raw material costs, improvement in operating cash flow, changes in investment income, the actual contribution after trial production of projects under construction, and whether the share price can regain the technical resistance area of RMB 8.13 to RMB 8.20.

Data Sources

• Stanley (002588)_Company Announcements_Stanley: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Stanley (002588) Announcements (All) - Lixinger
• Stanley (002588)_Company Announcements_Stanley: Investor Relations Management Information 20260821 Sina Finance_Sina
• Stanley: Announcement on Partial Release and Re-Pledge of Shares by the Controlling Shareholder_Stock Channel_Stockstar
• Stanley (002588) Latest Developments_F10_Hithink RoyalFlush Financial Services Network
• Stanley (002588)_Company Announcements_Stanley: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Securities code: 002588
• Securities code: 002588 Securities abbreviation: Stanley Announcement No.: 2026-023
• Stanley (002588)_Company Announcements_Stanley: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Summary Sina Finance_Sina
• Securities code: 002588 Securities abbreviation: Stanley Announcement No.: 2026-017
• Stanley (002588)_Stock Quotes, Quotes Homepage_Cfi.cn
• Stanley (002588.SZ) Stock Quotes_Historical Data_Main Funds - Big Wave Data

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of the close on September 11, 2026, and research reference time September 13, 2026; some market data differ by approximately RMB 0.01 due to price adjustment conventions, data delays and rounding, and there may be timeliness differences. For specific data, please refer to the company's formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is only for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.