Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Intelligent Transmission Co., Ltd. (ZhongDa Leader) (002896)

Equity Research Report | Industry: General Equipment Manufacturing · Core Intelligent Transmission Components | Report Date: September 14, 2026 | As of the September 11, 2026 close; technical indicators use unadjusted daily data from Dabolang, while the 52-week high and low use forward-adjusted data. Dabolang and Securities Times Cninfo show a closing price of RMB 62.64, whereas Investing displays RMB 60.82 or RMB 60.18, indicating data discrepancies; the RMB 62.64 basis is used below as a priority, but should be rechecked before actual trading.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

ZhongDa Leader showed a clear divergence in the first half of 2026, with revenue growth but declines in profit and cash flow: operating revenue was RMB 597 million, up 15.61% year on year, while net profit attributable to the parent was only RMB 27.7814 million, down 40.09% year on year. Non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to the parent fell 48.15% year on year, and net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 56.4911 million. The company also recognized RMB 11.7098 million in asset impairment provisions, with impairment related to accounts receivable, work in progress and goods issued being relatively prominent, indicating pressure on short-term earnings quality and operating turnover.

The company’s businesses cover geared motors, precision reducers, drives and intelligent actuators. In 2025, the three business categories together accounted for approximately 97.75% of revenue, including RMB 392 million from intelligent actuators, RMB 373 million from geared motors and RMB 252 million from precision reducers. Products are used in industrial robots, collaborative robots, CNC machine tools, intelligent logistics, new-energy equipment and 3C electronics, among other fields. The product coverage is broad, but the company is not a pure-play precision reducer manufacturer, and its absolute leadership in any single product category has not been confirmed by the available data.

In 2025, operating revenue was RMB 1.041 billion, up 6.61% year on year, while net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 62.7060 million, down 13.57% year on year. Overall gross margin was 26.10%; the gross margin of precision reducers was 21.44%, down 1.82 percentage points year on year. Overseas revenue increased 35.02% year on year but accounted for only 8.97% of total revenue. Distribution revenue rose to 48.42%, exceeding the proportion of direct sales, while the gross margin of distribution was lower than that of direct sales. Changes in channel structure may therefore pressure profitability.

As of September 11, 2026, the company’s share price was RMB 62.64, approximately 42.6% below the 52-week high of RMB 109.17. However, technical indicators remained in a weak consolidation phase: the share price was below MA10 and MA20, MACD was below the zero axis, and cumulative net outflow of main funds over the past 10 trading days was approximately RMB 108 million. Based on net assets at the end of June 2026, the price-to-book ratio was approximately 10.3x; based on TTM figures, the price-to-earnings ratio was approximately 279x. The current valuation relies heavily on future earnings growth, volume expansion in robot-related businesses and gross-margin recovery.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Motors and geared motors: 2025 revenue was RMB 373 million, accounting for 35.88% of operating revenue, up 8.14% year on year, with a gross margin of 31.22%. Products include micro and small AC geared motors, micro brushed DC geared motors, hypoid geared motors and permanent-magnet synchronous geared motors.
• Precision reducers: 2025 revenue was RMB 252 million, accounting for 24.24% of operating revenue, up 4.04% year on year, with a gross margin of 21.44%. Products include planetary reducers, RV reducers and harmonic reducers.
• Drives and intelligent actuators: 2025 intelligent-actuator revenue was RMB 392 million, accounting for 37.63% of operating revenue, up 5.80% year on year, with a gross margin of 25.08%. The company integrates reducers, motors and drives to create integrated and modular products.
• Accessories: 2025 revenue was RMB 7.5568 million, accounting for 0.73% of operating revenue, with a gross margin of 14.43%.
• Other businesses: 2025 revenue was RMB 15.8133 million, accounting for 1.52% of operating revenue, with a gross margin of 10.43%.
• Products are mainly used in industrial and collaborative robots, CNC machine tools, intelligent logistics and warehousing equipment, new-energy equipment, 3C electronics equipment, as well as printing, engraving, packaging, textile, food machinery, medical, pharmaceutical, environmental-protection and education equipment.
• The company offers nearly 1,000 product models. Its revenue base consists of geared motors, general transmission components and intelligent actuators, while it is also extending into high-precision reducers and robot modules.

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

ZhongDa Leader is positioned in the middle of the intelligent-manufacturing value chain and is a supplier of core precision-machining and electromechanical-integration components. It purchases metal materials, gears and motor components upstream and performs precision machining and assembly, while serving equipment manufacturers in robotics, intelligent logistics, machine tools and new-energy equipment downstream.

• Major purchases and components include gears, gear shafts, bearings, housings and covers, as well as enameled wire, silicon steel sheets, stators, rotors, motor housings and end covers. These materials are primarily processed from steel, copper, aluminum and other metals.
• In 2025 operating costs, direct materials accounted for RMB 479 million, or 63.43%; direct labor accounted for RMB 91.1030 million, or 12.07%; and manufacturing expenses accounted for RMB 185 million, or 24.51%. The proportion of direct materials was below 66.32% in 2024, while the proportion of manufacturing expenses was above 22.20% in 2024.
• In investor Q&A disclosures, the company stated that direct-material costs account for approximately 70% of reducer costs. This data came from investor Q&A in 2021 rather than the 2025 annual report. The actual current proportion may have been affected by changes in product mix, material prices and automation levels and should be used only as directional reference.
• Purchases from the top five suppliers in 2025 totaled RMB 117 million, accounting for 21.07% of annual total purchases. The largest supplier accounted for 5.34%, and none of the top five suppliers was a related party. Overall supplier concentration is not high, and dependence on any single supplier is relatively low.
• The 2025 ESG report disclosed a total of 1,052 cooperating suppliers, including 496 suppliers in Zhejiang. Local suppliers accounted for 47.15%, and localized procurement accounted for 73.59%. However, the company did not disclose supplier concentration for specific categories such as steel, copper, bearings or enameled wire.
• The company is generally a price taker for bulk metal materials such as steel, copper and aluminum. Rising raw-material prices usually compress gross margins. The company can partially offset this through procurement scale, supplier switching, process improvements and product repricing, but has limited pricing power over upstream bulk materials.
• Downstream customers are mainly equipment manufacturers in robotics, intelligent logistics, machine tools, new-energy equipment, 3C electronics, medical equipment, packaging and food machinery. Revenue sources are relatively diversified and are not dependent on a single industry.
• Sales to the top five customers in 2025 totaled RMB 202 million, accounting for 19.36% of annual sales. The largest customer accounted for 8.59%, and none of the top five customers was a related party. These concentration figures are based on the 2025 annual report. The report did not disclose the names of the top five customers, making it impossible to further identify their end industries. The latest annual report should be referenced for details.
• The annual report listed end customers including Noblelift, Hangcha Group, Yuhuan CNC, KDT Machinery, Yawei, Han’s Laser, Greenworks, Yuyue Medical, Tofflon, Truking Technology, Hikvision, Quicktron, the Maersk Group, Sany International, AgiBot and Fourier Intelligence. However, it did not disclose specific products, order sizes or cooperation depth. It is therefore not possible to infer that the company has become a core supplier to these customers or achieved large-scale supply.
• Customers generally focus on transmission precision, noise, service life, delivery stability, batch consistency, product customization and after-sales service. Equipment manufacturers generally have strong cost-control and supplier-certification capabilities.
• The company uses a combination of direct sales and distribution. In 2025, the gross margin of direct sales was 29.81%, versus 22.15% for distribution. The proportion of distribution revenue increased from 40.50% in 2024 to 48.42% in 2025, and channel concessions may have affected overall margins.
• Competition is relatively intense in general geared motors and mid- to low-end transmission components, with product homogenization and price competition. Precision reducers such as RV and harmonic reducers have higher technical barriers, with competition focused on tooth-profile design, material treatment, machining precision, assembly processes, testing capabilities, service life and batch consistency.
• As of December 31, 2025, accounts receivable were RMB 125 million, or approximately 11.99% of operating revenue; inventories were RMB 317 million, or approximately 30.50%; accounts payable were RMB 267 million, or approximately 25.66%; and prepayments were RMB 7.3728 million, representing a low proportion. Based on a rough estimate using average balances at the end of 2024 and 2025, accounts-receivable turnover was approximately 39.6 days, inventory turnover approximately 136.1 days and accounts-payable turnover approximately 105.9 days. These turnover figures are not based on the company’s formally disclosed average-balance methodology and do not consider notes receivable, financing receivables, inventory classification or the timing of procurement payments. In 2025, revenue grew 6.61%, while inventory increased approximately 24% year on year, accounts receivable approximately 23.6% and accounts payable approximately 49%. Inventory growth was significantly faster than revenue growth, which may reflect capacity expansion, increased stocking or slower absorption of certain products.
• Upstream, the top five suppliers accounted for 21.07% of total purchases in 2025, with the largest supplier accounting for 5.34%. Downstream, the top five customers accounted for 19.36% of total sales, with the largest customer accounting for 8.59%. Concentration at both ends is not high, but the names of the top five customers and concentration by specific supplier categories were not disclosed. These figures are based on 2025 data and should be confirmed against the latest annual report.

The company is positioned in the middle of the intelligent-manufacturing value chain and is a supplier of core precision-machining and electromechanical-integration components. Overall, it is neither an upstream resource company nor a downstream brand company with high margins. Upstream, it is exposed to prices of steel, copper, aluminum and other materials and lacks pricing power over bulk raw materials. Downstream customers are relatively diversified but have strong cost-control and supplier-certification capabilities. Future margin improvement will depend primarily on higher proportions of high-value-added products such as large RV reducers, harmonic reducers, intelligent actuators and robot components, as well as material-cost control, improved inventory turnover and higher capacity utilization, rather than simply expanding sales of general geared motors.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 19.5102 million in the first half of 2026, down 48.15% year on year, versus RMB 37.6281 million in the first half of 2025. Basic and diluted EPS were both RMB 0.14, down 41.67% year on year, while weighted-average ROE was 2.30%, down 1.59 percentage points from the same period last year. Net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 56.4911 million in the first half of 2026, compared with RMB 8.9660 million in the same period of 2025. As of June 30, 2026, total assets were RMB 1.99107 billion, up 7.44% from the end of 2025, while net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company were RMB 1.19510 billion, down 0.56% from the end of 2025. In FY2025, non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 46.4756 million, down 20.27% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 0.32, down 13.51% year on year, and weighted-average ROE was 5.29%.

The company recently showed revenue growth but declining profit. In the first half of 2026, the decline in profit was significantly greater than the growth in revenue, indicating pressure on profitability. Southwest Securities disclosed that overall gross margin was approximately 23.28% in the first half of 2026, down approximately 4.5 percentage points year on year, with declining gross margins for precision reducers and intelligent actuators weighing on profit. In 2025, revenue from intelligent actuators, geared motors and precision reducers was RMB 391.67 million, RMB 373.49 million and RMB 252.36 million, respectively. Overseas revenue was RMB 93.3409 million, up 35.02% year on year.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

The figures above are a summary by Tonghuashun F10 of forecasts from five institutions issued within the six months through September 11, 2026. They represent sell-side forecasts rather than company-announcement data. For 2026, institutional forecasts for operating revenue range from RMB 1.164 billion to RMB 1.301 billion, forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent range from RMB 64 million to RMB 112 million, and EPS forecasts range from RMB 0.33 to RMB 0.57. For 2027, operating-revenue forecasts range from RMB 1.281 billion to RMB 1.624 billion, net-profit forecasts from RMB 82 million to RMB 134 million, and EPS forecasts from RMB 0.42 to RMB 0.68. For 2028, operating-revenue forecasts range from RMB 1.399 billion to RMB 1.949 billion, net-profit forecasts from RMB 94 million to RMB 168 million, and EPS forecasts from RMB 0.48 to RMB 0.86. The sample includes only five institutions and does not represent a complete market-wide consensus. Some annual averages may differ from simple arithmetic averages of individual institutions because of differences in methodology or rounding.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

As of the September 11, 2026 close, the share price was RMB 62.64, total shares outstanding were approximately 196.5 million, and market capitalization was approximately RMB 12.31 billion. Based on 2025 net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 62.7060 million, static P/E was approximately 196x. Based on net assets attributable to the parent of RMB 1.2018 billion at the end of 2025, P/B was approximately 10.2x. Based on TTM net profit attributable to the parent of approximately RMB 44.11 million, TTM P/E was approximately 279x; based on net assets attributable to the parent of RMB 1.1951 billion at the end of June 2026, P/B was approximately 10.3x. Lixinger reported P/E-TTM of approximately 273.16x and P/B of approximately 10.08x, while the Tonghuashun page showed dynamic P/E of approximately 221.56x, reflecting differences in methodology. Based on consensus EPS, 2026E, 2027E and 2028E P/E were approximately 142x, 120x and 101x, respectively. Based on institutional forecast ranges, three-year forward P/E ranges were approximately 110x-190x, 92x-149x and 73x-131x, respectively. The company’s current valuation is high, and its reasonableness depends heavily on future profit growth, volume expansion in robot-related businesses and recovery in core-product gross margins. The decline in first-half 2026 profit, lower gross margin and negative operating cash flow are in clear tension with the current high valuation. Gross margin, non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to the parent, operating cash flow and accounts receivable require close monitoring.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Announcement Overview as of September 14, 2026

002896 corresponds to Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Intelligent Transmission Co., Ltd., known as “ZhongDa Leader.” The company is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and specializes in precision reducers, geared motors and related transmission-control products. Recent important announcements were concentrated on August 26, 2026, including the 2026 interim report, interim report summary, announcement on asset impairment provisions, board resolutions and announcement on fund transactions. No new major company announcements for September 2026 had been identified at the time of review.

4.2 First-Half 2026 Results: Revenue Growth but Declining Profit and Operating Cash Flow

The company disclosed its 2026 interim report on August 26, 2026. In the first half of 2026, operating revenue was RMB 596.55 million, up 15.61% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 27.7814 million, down 40.09%; non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 19.5102 million, down 48.15%; net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 56.4911 million, compared with RMB 8.9660 million in the same period last year; and basic EPS was RMB 0.14, down 41.67%. Overall, revenue grew, but profit and operating cash flow declined significantly.

4.3 Interim Profit Distribution Arrangement

The company announced that it would not pay a cash dividend, issue bonus shares or convert capital reserves into share capital for the first half of 2026. This is a profit-distribution arrangement for the reporting period and does not amount to cancellation of the annual dividend. The company had previously implemented its 2025 annual dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of RMB 1.20 per 10 shares.

4.4 No Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Guidance Identified

As of September 14, 2026, no third-quarter 2026 earnings guidance, earnings preview or announcement of an expected earnings increase or decrease had been identified within the scope of this review. The third-quarter report and related guidance may be released during the subsequent statutory disclosure window. No conclusion about full-year earnings trends can currently be drawn from its absence.

4.5 RMB 11.7098 Million in Asset Impairment Provisions

On August 26, 2026, the company disclosed total asset impairment provisions of RMB 11.7098 million for the first half of 2026, including RMB 6.5583 million in asset impairment provisions and RMB 5.1515 million in credit impairment losses. These included impairment of RMB 4.2704 million for work in progress, RMB 2.0220 million for goods issued and bad-debt losses on accounts receivable of RMB 5.0891 million. After considering the effects of income tax and non-controlling interests, the provisions reduced net profit attributable to owners of the parent by RMB 9.5621 million in the first half of 2026, equivalent to approximately 18.75% of the absolute value of audited 2025 net profit. These provisions do not equal current-period cash outflows, but impairment related to accounts receivable, work in progress and goods issued indicates some pressure on collections, inventory or the profitability of certain products.

4.6 Abnormal Share-Price Movements and Valuation Risk Warning

The company disclosed an announcement on abnormal share-price movements on August 5, 2026. The cumulative deviation in the closing share price over the three consecutive trading days of July 31, August 3 and August 4 exceeded 20%. As of August 4, 2026, the closing price was RMB 76.11 per share, while the static P/E and P/B disclosed in the announcement were 238.51x and 12.41x, respectively. The corresponding static P/E and P/B for the general equipment manufacturing industry were 36.87x and 3.09x. The company warned that its valuation metrics were significantly above industry levels, that the stock may be subject to irrational speculation and that trading risks were relatively high. The company stated that production and operations were normal, that no material changes had occurred in the internal or external operating environment, that there were no material matters that should have been disclosed but had not been disclosed or were in the planning stage, and that the controlling shareholder and actual controller had not traded the company’s shares during the period of abnormal volatility.

4.7 Controlling Shareholder and Concert Parties End Share-Reduction Plan Early

On July 16, 2026, the company disclosed an announcement on the early termination and results of the share-reduction plan of its controlling shareholder and concert parties. The original plan proposed selling no more than 5.89 million shares between June 1 and August 31, 2026, equivalent to no more than 3% of total shares outstanding. The relevant shareholders cumulatively sold 5.804019 million shares between June 1 and June 18, 2026, representing 2.95% of total shares outstanding, and then ended the reduction plan early. The remaining unsold shares would not be sold during the plan period. Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Investment Co., Ltd. sold 1.884019 million shares through block trades and 527,000 shares through centralized bidding; ZhongDa (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd. sold 1.96 million shares through block trades and 500,000 shares through centralized bidding; Cixi Deli Investment Management Partnership sold 562,000 shares through centralized bidding; and Cixi Dezheng Investment Management Partnership sold 371,000 shares through centralized bidding.

4.8 Shareholdings and Control Status After the Reduction

After the reduction, Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Investment Co., Ltd.’s shareholding fell from 23.50% to 22.27%, while ZhongDa (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd.’s shareholding fell from 21.85% to 20.60%. At the time of the 2026 interim report, the two remained the company’s two largest shareholders, and the actual controller had not changed. The company stated that the early termination of the share-reduction plan would not result in a change of control or have a material impact on continuing operations.

4.9 Acquisition of a 39% Stake in Korean PM Co.

On April 16, 2026, the company disclosed a proposed acquisition of a 39% stake in Korean company PM Co. The target equity interest is held by Korean company Sebon System, and the transaction consideration is KRW 390 million, corresponding to 39% of PM Co.’s registered capital. After completion, Sebon System would hold 51%, ZhongDa Leader 39% and Guangzhou Xinrui Trading Co., Ltd. 10%. The transaction does not constitute a related-party transaction or a material asset restructuring and does not require shareholder approval. Its purpose is to develop the Korean market, increase overseas market share and serve local Korean customers. As of the date of this review, third-party announcement databases still marked the transaction as “in progress.” No announcement confirming completion of closing, completion of corporate-registration changes or termination of the transaction had been identified. It therefore cannot yet be confirmed that the project has been completed or made an operating contribution.

4.10 Wholly Owned Subsidiary Plans in Germany and Vietnam

The company plans to establish ZhongDa Europe GmbH in Germany, with total investment not exceeding RMB 8 million, and ZhongDa Leader (Vietnam) Intelligent Transmission Co., Ltd. in Vietnam, also with total investment not exceeding RMB 8 million. The funding source is internal funds, and the subsidiaries will mainly support overseas market expansion, technical support, product design and R&D, and sales. As of September 14, 2026, no further announcement had been identified confirming that the German or Vietnamese subsidiaries had completed registration, commenced operations or obtained significant orders. Their actual implementation progress therefore remains uncertain.

4.11 No Recent Share Buyback or Major Regulatory Matters Identified

As of September 14, 2026, no recent share-buyback plan, buyback progress announcement or buyback cancellation announcement had been identified within the scope of this review. The company’s previous annual dividend announcement mentioned adjusting the distribution base if factors such as buybacks caused changes in total shares outstanding; this does not indicate that an actual buyback had been implemented. No recent announcement was identified regarding disciplinary action by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, administrative penalties by the CSRC, a regulatory warning letter or a major inquiry letter. In its August 5 announcement on abnormal volatility, the company stated that there had been no violation of fair-information-disclosure rules and no material matter that should have been disclosed but had not been disclosed.

4.12 Overall Assessment of Recent News Flow

As of September 14, 2026, the key recent information includes the following: first-half 2026 revenue increased 15.61% year on year, but net profit attributable to the parent fell 40.09%, non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit fell 48.15% and operating cash flow turned negative; asset impairment provisions of RMB 11.7098 million were recognized in the interim period; during abnormal share-price movements, the company warned that its valuation was significantly above industry levels and that there was a risk of irrational speculation; the controlling shareholder and concert parties cumulatively sold 5.804019 million shares, representing 2.95% of total shares outstanding, without a change in control; and the acquisition of the Korean PM stake and the establishment of subsidiaries in Germany and Vietnam still lack subsequent confirmation of completed closing, formal operations or revenue and profit contributions. Overall, the interim results, asset impairment, valuation-risk warnings and shareholder share reduction are the most important current developments, while overseas investments have not yet generated a clear short-term earnings contribution.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, ZhongDa Leader’s share price had entered a low-level consolidation phase after an earlier rapid pullback. At RMB 62.64, it was close to MA5 but remained below MA10 and MA20. MACD was below the zero axis, DIF was below DEA, and RSI was in neutral territory. Technical indicators had not yet formed a clear reversal signal. The share price was close to the 52-week low of RMB 58.51, but there remained a possibility of further testing lower support levels. In terms of fund flows, cumulative net outflow over the past 10 trading days was approximately RMB 108 million. The September 11 rebound occurred alongside a net outflow from main funds and was insufficient to confirm sustained fund inflows.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice or a certain forecast of future share prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high subjective weight, approximately 60%; this is a subjective judgment based on the current technical and fund-flow setup, not a statistical probability): The reference price range is RMB 59.5-66.0. Conditions include the share price not decisively breaking below RMB 59.5 while failing to break through the RMB 63.3-66.6 resistance zone on strong volume, turnover remaining broadly between RMB 250 million and RMB 450 million, and the robotics, reducer and general-equipment sectors avoiding sustained strength or an obvious systematic decline. This would correspond to a weak-recovery backdrop characterized by the stock being near MA5, below MA10 and MA20, MACD below the zero axis, neutral RSI and net outflows from main funds over the past 10 days.
• Weak decline (medium subjective weight; this is a subjective judgment based on the current technical and fund-flow setup, not a statistical probability): The reference price range is RMB 58.5-60.0. If RMB 58.5 is subsequently lost, the stock may seek support at lower levels. Conditions include the share price falling below RMB 59.5 while daily turnover expands to above RMB 450 million, main funds continuing to record consecutive net outflows, or the broader market and robotics sector weakening simultaneously. A high-volume break could indicate that selling pressure is not merely a low-volume pullback. RSI6 has not yet reached oversold territory, leaving room for further technical downside.
• Stronger rebound (low to medium subjective weight; this is a subjective judgment based on the current technical and fund-flow setup, not a statistical probability): The reference price range is RMB 63.3-68.0. Conditions include the share price first reclaiming RMB 63.3 and then breaking above RMB 66.6 on increased volume, daily turnover reaching at least RMB 450 million-RMB 500 million, main funds shifting from consecutive net outflows to net inflows for at least several consecutive days, and the robotics and reducer sectors strengthening in tandem or receiving a clear catalyst. If volume fails to follow after a break above RMB 66.6, a pullback after a spike remains possible, and a single-day gain should not be treated as a trend reversal.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover ratio was 2.88%, daily turnover was approximately RMB 342 million and turnover over recent trading days was broadly RMB 236 million-RMB 474 million. Under normal trading conditions, buying and selling impact was relatively controllable, but price volatility could expand significantly if volume increased following the recent rapid decline. According to the company’s 2026 interim report, as of June 30, 2026, the number of ordinary shareholders was 75,885, an increase of 3,725 from March 31, 2026. The top 10 shareholders collectively held approximately 48.48% of the shares. The largest shareholder, Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Investment Co., Ltd., held 22.27%, while the second-largest shareholder, ZhongDa (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd., held 20.60%; the two largest shareholders together held approximately 42.87%. Among the top 10 shareholders, robotics-themed ETFs and other public funds collectively held approximately 3.38%, and Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company held approximately 0.32%. The memorandum did not disclose whether social-security funds or QFII were among the top 10 shareholders. These shareholder figures were as of June 30, 2026, approximately two and a half months before the latest market data. The structure may have changed and should not be regarded as real-time holdings as of September 11, 2026. Overall, the shareholder structure was characterized by concentration among the controlling shareholder and related investment platforms, relatively limited public-fund holdings and an increase in the number of shareholders. The actual freely tradable float remains subject to fund rebalancing, short-term capital flows and recent high-volatility trading.

Observable volume signals for verification: if daily turnover can expand consistently to above RMB 450 million-RMB 500 million over the next week while the share price stabilizes in the RMB 63.3-66.6 area, this could indicate a clear strengthening of short-term fund absorption. If turnover remains consistently below approximately RMB 300 million, the pattern would be more consistent with low-volume consolidation or weak recovery. These are observation criteria, not trading instructions.

④ Key Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Monitor whether the share price can hold the RMB 59.5-62.4 support zone. If RMB 59.5 is broken on increased volume, monitor support near the RMB 58.5 52-week low.
• Monitor whether the RMB 63.3-66.6 resistance zone can be broken on increased volume. Above RMB 66.6 is the key area requiring confirmation for short-term strengthening.
• Monitor whether main funds end their consecutive net outflows. As of September 11, 2026, cumulative net outflow over the past 10 trading days remained approximately RMB 108 million, and fund-flow confirmation had not yet been achieved.
• Monitor whether daily turnover can repeatedly reach above RMB 450 million-RMB 500 million while the share price rises above RMB 63.3-66.6. These are observation points based on technical and fund-flow data, not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices will also be affected by news flow, fund flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations. This analysis does not guarantee actual future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and assume their own investment risks.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Conditions

ZhongDa Leader operates at the intersection of “general geared motors + precision reducers + intelligent actuators.” Competition is relatively intense in general geared motors and mid- to low-end transmission components, while precision reducers have higher technical barriers. Industrial robots, CNC machine tools, intelligent logistics, new-energy equipment and humanoid robots represent key demand areas. The domestic market is characterized by accelerating localization of precision reducers, growing industrial-robot demand and resilient exports, but the machinery industry continues to face structural supply-demand imbalances, declining product prices and pressure on industry profitability. In 2025, producer prices for machinery-industry products fell 1.5% year on year, while producer prices for general equipment manufacturing products fell 1.7%.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• General geared motors and mid- to low-end transmission components are relatively homogenized, with clear price competition.
• Competitive barriers for precision reducers such as RV and harmonic reducers are mainly reflected in tooth-profile design, material treatment, machining precision, assembly processes, testing capabilities, service life and batch consistency.
• Overseas companies continue to hold advantages in brand, reliability and customer certification in high-end precision reducers. Chinese manufacturers are mainly pursuing import substitution through pricing, delivery speed and localized services.
• The localization trend is clear, but companies have different strengths in RV, harmonic and planetary reducers, geared motors and integrated actuator units. They should not be compared simply as “robotics concept stocks.”
• The company’s 2025 annual report did not disclose specific capacity, capacity utilization or market share for the various types of precision reducers. Industry market-share figures may also differ in statistical scope, including shipment volume, sales value, reducers for industrial robots or all reducers, and therefore should not be directly mixed.

6.3 Major Competitors

ZhongDa Leader is not a pure-play precision reducer company but an integrated supplier of geared motors, precision reducers and intelligent actuators. Compared with Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, its product coverage is broader; compared with Shuanghuan Driveline, it places greater emphasis on geared motors and the integration of motors and drives; compared with QCMT&T and Han’s CNC, it does not focus primarily on machine tools or machine-tool functional components. Its competitive advantages are mainly broad product coverage, integrated reducers, motors and drives, customization capabilities and distribution-network coverage. However, the research memorandum did not confirm that the company holds absolute leadership in any single reducer category.

7. Risk Factors

• In the first half of 2026, revenue grew 15.61% year on year, but net profit attributable to the parent fell 40.09% and non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to the parent fell 48.15%. Overall gross margin was approximately 23.28%, down approximately 4.5 percentage points year on year, creating a risk that revenue growth may not translate into corresponding profit growth.
• The company recognized total asset impairment provisions of RMB 11.7098 million in the first half of 2026, including RMB 5.0891 million in bad-debt losses on accounts receivable, RMB 4.2704 million in work-in-progress impairment and RMB 2.0220 million in impairment of goods issued. These impairments may indicate pressure on collections, inventory absorption or the profitability of certain products. If the issues persist, future profit may remain affected.
• At the end of 2025, inventory was RMB 317 million, equivalent to approximately 30.50% of annual revenue, and grew approximately 24% year on year, significantly faster than revenue. Accounts receivable grew approximately 23.6% year on year. If capacity expansion, stocking or product absorption falls short of expectations, inventory turnover may slow, impairment may increase and operating cash flow may be tied up.
• Net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 56.4911 million in the first half of 2026, compared with RMB 8.9660 million in the same period last year. Against a backdrop of rising accounts receivable and higher asset impairment, deteriorating operating cash flow may constrain the company’s ability to self-fund business expansion.
• Direct materials accounted for 63.43% of 2025 operating costs and mainly comprised steel, copper, aluminum and other metal materials. The company generally lacks pricing power over bulk materials. If rising raw-material prices cannot be sufficiently offset through procurement, supplier switching, process improvements and product repricing, gross margin may remain under pressure.
• Competition is relatively intense in general geared motors and mid- to low-end transmission components, with homogenization and price competition. Distribution revenue rose to 48.42% in 2025, while distribution gross margin was 22.15%, below the 29.81% gross margin of direct sales. A higher distribution proportion may increase concession pressure and weigh on overall profitability.
• The top five customers accounted for 19.36% of total sales in 2025, but the company did not disclose their names, product scale or depth of cooperation. Downstream equipment manufacturers generally have strong cost-control and supplier-certification capabilities, and changes in customer demand, price negotiations or certification progress may affect orders and profit.
• As of September 11, 2026, the company’s TTM P/E was approximately 279x and P/B approximately 10.30x. The valuation is heavily dependent on future profit growth, volume expansion in robot-related businesses and gross-margin recovery. If actual results fall below institutional forecasts or profitability continues to decline, valuation volatility risk is high.
• The controlling shareholder and concert parties cumulatively sold 5.804019 million shares from June 1 to June 18, 2026, representing 2.95% of total shares outstanding. Although control did not change, shareholder selling combined with recent high share-price volatility may increase supply and trading pressure.
• As of September 14, 2026, the acquisition of a 39% stake in Korean PM Co. and the establishment of subsidiaries in Germany and Vietnam had not been confirmed as having completed closing, commenced registered operations or generated significant orders. The overseas initiatives have not yet made a clear short-term earnings contribution, and their implementation progress and operating returns remain uncertain.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company’s medium- to long-term growth drivers mainly come from product upgrades and application expansion in precision reducers, intelligent actuators and robot-related components. It may also benefit from demand for domestic substitution of precision reducers, industrial robots, intelligent logistics, CNC machine tools and new-energy equipment. The integration of reducers, motors and drives, together with broad product-model coverage, should help the company serve equipment manufacturers across different categories. Overseas revenue has maintained relatively rapid growth, while the acquisition of the Korean PM stake and the establishment of subsidiaries in Germany and Vietnam also reflect an overseas-expansion strategy. However, these projects have not yet been confirmed as having completed closing, commenced operations or generated a clear earnings contribution.

In the short term, the company needs to demonstrate that revenue growth can translate into improvements in profit and cash flow. Key variables to monitor include whether the gross margins of precision reducers and intelligent actuators can recover, whether the growth rates of inventory and accounts receivable can moderate, whether asset-impairment pressure can ease, whether operating cash flow can turn positive, and the revenue mix and capacity utilization of high-value-added products. Institutional forecasts expect revenue and net profit attributable to the parent to continue growing from 2026 to 2028, but the forecasts are aggregated from a limited sample of sell-side institutions. Actual results have already shown profit declining faster than revenue growth, so forecast realization remains dependent on profitability recovery.

The company currently faces industry price competition, raw-material cost constraints, strong bargaining power among downstream customers and high-valuation pressure. If gross margin continues to decline, inventory and receivables impairment expands or robot-related business volume falls short of expectations, the disconnect between valuation and fundamentals may become more pronounced. Conversely, if earnings, cash flow and fund flows improve, product-mix upgrades and overseas expansion could support profit growth.

Data Sources

• ZhongDa Leader (002896)_Company Announcements_ZhongDa Leader: 2025 Annual Report Summary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://disc.static.szse.cn/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-04-16/134ab42c-679a-4486-8851-df587edb1754.PDF
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-06-04/1220256626.PDF
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-18/1223126845.PDF
• https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202110261525170503_1.PDF
• ZhongDa Leader 2025 ESG Report
• ZhongDa Leader (002896.SZ) - Earnings Summary
• 〖Industry Deep Dive〗Insights 2023: Competitive Landscape and Market Share of China’s Reducer Industry (Including Market Concentration and Corporate Competitiveness Evaluation) - Industry Research Report - Qianzhan
• ZhongDa Leader (002896)_Company Announcements_ZhongDa Leader: 2026 Interim Report Summary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ZhongDa Leader (002896) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Initial Institutional Coverage - Research Reports - Stock Channel - Securities Star
• Morning Meeting Express__Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ZhongDa Leader (002896) Tracking Report: Profitability Improved Significantly, Moving Toward Electromechanical Integration__Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ZhongDa Leader (002896) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts_Investing.com
• ZhongDa Leader (002896) P/E|Valuation|Fundamentals - Lixinger
• https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/CNSESZ_STOCK/2026/2026-8/2026-08-26/12536112.PDF
• ZhongDa Leader (002896)_Company Announcements_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ZhongDa Leader (002896)_Company Announcements_ZhongDa Leader: Announcement on Recognition of Asset Impairment Provisions_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-05/1225457298.PDF
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-16/1225426941.PDF
• [B111

Information Disclosure

Disclosure

Thursday, April 16, 2026

[email protected] (](https://epaper.stcn.com/att/202604/16/ZQ16B111-QX_eBook.pdf?utm_source=openai)

• ZhongDa Leader (002896) Announcements (All) - Lixinger
• ZhongDa Leader (002896)_Company Announcements_ZhongDa Leader: 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ZhongDa Leader (002896.SZ) Stock Quotes_Historical Data_Main Funds - Dabolang Data
• Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Intelligent Transmission Co Ltd (002896) Historical Prices - Investing.com

This report was automatically researched, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current through the September 11, 2026 close; technical indicators use unadjusted daily data from Dabolang, while the 52-week high and low use forward-adjusted data. Dabolang and Securities Times Cninfo show a closing price of RMB 62.64, whereas Investing displays RMB 60.82 or RMB 60.18, indicating data discrepancies; the RMB 62.64 basis is used below as a priority, but should be rechecked before actual trading. The information may be subject to timeliness differences. Specific data should be verified against the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is intended solely for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute investment advice of any kind, and investors should make independent judgments and assume their own investment risks.