ThunderSoft Software Co., Ltd. (300496)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Operating Systems and Edge Intelligence Platforms　|　Report Date: September 14, 2026　|　Technical analysis is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026; data for September 14, 2026 consists only of intraday or delayed quotes and was not used as the closing-price benchmark.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

ThunderSoft reported revenue of RMB 4.305 billion in 1H 2026, up 30.46% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 246 million, up 54.97%, while non-recurring-adjusted attributable net profit increased 71.32%. Attributable net profit growth accelerated further to 117.31% year on year in 2Q, indicating that both revenue growth and lower expense ratios contributed to profit release. However, net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 63.5727 million during the period, while overall gross margin in 1H was 29.08%, down 4.08 percentage points year on year, indicating continued divergence between earnings growth, cash flow and earnings quality.

The company’s growth is primarily driven by its AIOS strategy, multi-terminal edge-intelligence applications and expansion of its intelligent IoT business. In 2025, intelligent IoT and intelligent hardware revenue was RMB 3.605 billion, up 133.26% year on year and accounting for 46.35% of total revenue, but its gross margin was only 18.91%. In 1H 2026, revenue from this business reached RMB 1.866 billion, up 46.93% year on year, while gross margin declined further to 14.36%, significantly below the 43.26% gross margin of the intelligent vehicle business and the 36.31% gross margin of the intelligent software business. Intelligent vehicles and intelligent software have stronger software-platform characteristics, with software licensing revenue achieving an 81.92% gross margin. Future improvement in the profit mix will depend on the volume ramp-up of software licensing, platform-based products and vehicle operating systems.

In 2025, the company generated revenue of RMB 7.778 billion, up 44.45% year on year, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose 10.47% to RMB 450 million. Overall gross margin declined from 34.29% in 2024 to 31.67%, reflecting pressure from the growth of intelligent IoT hardware deliveries and material procurement. In 2025, hardware products and materials procurement costs increased 96.12% year on year to RMB 2.242 billion. Accounts receivable stood at RMB 2.740 billion, equivalent to approximately 35.23% of annual revenue. The share of sales to the top five customers rose to 27.27%, while the largest customer accounted for 10.46%. Project delivery, settlement and customer concentration remain important areas for monitoring operating quality.

As of September 11, 2026, the company’s share price was RMB 54.45, with a forward P/E of approximately 47.7–48x. The share price had retreated approximately 8.5% from its early-September high. Technical indicators were generally weak: the share price was below the MA5, MA10 and MA20, MACD was below the zero line, and aggregate net outflows of major funds over the latest 10 trading days were approximately RMB 285 million. However, RSI6 was 25.5, and the share price was close to the short-term support zone of RMB 53.4–54.6 and the lower Bollinger Band, leaving room for a technical rebound. No clear bottoming or trend-reversal signal has yet formed.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Intelligent vehicles: Provides intelligent cockpit operating systems and solutions, intelligent-driving platforms, cockpit-driving integrated systems, vehicle operating systems, automotive HMI and the Kanzi 3D interaction engine, SmartDrive vision products, automotive high-performance computing platforms, AIBOX, vehicle-road-cloud integration platforms and RoadOS. Revenue was RMB 2.656 billion in 2025, accounting for 34.14% of total revenue, up 9.91% year on year, with a gross margin of 46.18%.
• Intelligent software: Includes development and optimization of Android and other mobile operating systems, system software services for smartphones and PCs, AI smartphone and AI PC operating systems, edge-side large-model adaptation, software licensing, systems integration, technical services and software development. Revenue was RMB 1.517 billion in 2025, accounting for 19.51% of total revenue, up 6.64% year on year, with a gross margin of 36.60%.
• Intelligent IoT and intelligent hardware: Includes industry handheld terminals, PDAs, industrial tablets, payment POS terminals, intelligent-vision and edge-computing equipment, AI video-conferencing equipment, AI glasses, smart wearables, speakers, watches, AIPC reference designs, industrial edge-computing modules and development kits, as well as intelligent IoT operating systems and edge-device-cloud solutions. Revenue was RMB 3.605 billion in 2025, accounting for 46.35% of total revenue, up 133.26% year on year, with a gross margin of 18.91%.
• Intelligent robotics and industry AI: Covers mobile robots, industrial AMRs, autonomous forklifts, composite robots and embodied intelligence, providing solutions for automotive and auto-parts, lithium-battery, 3C, food and beverage, warehousing and logistics, and other industries. This business remains in an expansion and industrialization phase. The 2025 annual report did not separately disclose robotics revenue or capacity data.
• Platforms and software IP: The company is promoting an AIOS+AIBOX and OS+domain controller+ecosystem architecture. Through operating systems, AI middleware, toolchains, algorithm IP, software licensing and standardized platform capabilities, it seeks to upgrade its business from project-based software services to a platform, IP and standardized-product provider.

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

ThunderSoft spans several industry-chain segments, including intelligent vehicles, intelligent terminals, intelligent IoT and robotics. Overall, it occupies a midstream position in intelligent software platforms and edge-intelligence solutions. In certain businesses, the company provides operating systems, middleware, toolchains and software licensing; in intelligent IoT and robotics, it also participates in hardware modules, complete-machine solutions and systems integration.

• Chips and computing platforms: The business requires adaptation to chips and computing platforms from Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Renesas, NXP and others for smartphones, vehicles, robots and AIoT devices. The company remains highly dependent on chip manufacturers in core-chip, specific-computing-platform and ecosystem-adaptation areas, and has weaker bargaining power than chip original equipment manufacturers.
• Hardware products and materials: Intelligent IoT and robotics businesses procure modules, circuit boards, displays, cameras, sensors, communications components, structural parts and materials related to complete machines. In 2025, hardware products and materials procurement costs were RMB 2.242 billion, accounting for 42.18% of operating costs and increasing 96.12% year on year.
• External services and engineering outsourcing: Service procurement costs were RMB 476 million in 2025, accounting for 8.95% of operating costs and increasing 19.61% year on year. The annual report did not provide further supplier-type breakdowns.
• R&D and engineering labor: Direct labor costs were RMB 2.048 billion in 2025, accounting for 38.54% of operating costs. R&D and project-delivery personnel costs are relatively rigid and difficult to reduce in line with short-term revenue fluctuations.
• Supplier concentration: In 2025, purchases from the top five suppliers totaled RMB 1.122 billion, accounting for 24.89% of total annual purchases; the largest supplier accounted for 12.69%. The names of the top five suppliers were not disclosed, making it impossible to determine whether purchases were concentrated among specific chip or hardware manufacturers.
• Upstream bargaining power: The company has a degree of scale-purchasing and supplier-substitution capability in standardized hardware, circuit boards, modules and materials. In core chips and specific computing platforms, however, it is closer to a price taker.
• Customer types: Downstream customers include automakers and automotive Tier 1 suppliers; smartphone and PC and other intelligent-terminal brands; chip manufacturers; telecom operators; internet companies; and customers in industrial, logistics, energy, transportation, retail and intelligent manufacturing sectors.
• Role in the automotive industry chain: The company provides software directly to automakers and also provides software products and technical services to automotive Tier 1 suppliers. It can therefore serve as both a software Tier 1 and software Tier 2 in the traditional industry chain, with its relationship with Tier 1 suppliers being more complementary.
• Customer concentration: In 2025, sales to the top five customers totaled RMB 2.121 billion, accounting for 27.27% of annual revenue; sales to the largest customer were RMB 814 million, accounting for 10.46% of revenue. Related-party sales among the top five customers accounted for 0%. The specific names of the top five customers were not disclosed. These figures cover only 2025, and customer-concentration risk should be assessed based on the latest annual report.
• Change in concentration: The top five customers accounted for 18.65% of sales in 2024 and 27.27% in 2025, indicating increased customer concentration. The largest customer accounted for more than 10%, requiring monitoring of major-customer orders, vehicle-model mass-production schedules, project acceptance and customer operating conditions.
• Downstream bargaining relationship: Automakers and large terminal customers have high procurement volumes and concentrated purchasing, and generally possess strong bargaining power over project pricing, delivery and acceptance terms. Customized development requires substantial upfront investment, and switching suppliers entails adaptation costs, but this is not sufficient to fully eliminate downstream pricing pressure.
• Direction for improving the profit mix: Software licensing revenue was RMB 191 million in 2025, with an 81.92% gross margin, significantly higher than that of software development, technical services and product sales. Increasing the share of software licensing, IP licensing and platform-based services could reduce the downstream bargaining pressure associated with project-based work and hardware delivery.
• As of December 31, 2025, accounts receivable were RMB 2.740 billion, accounting for 20.20% of total assets, equivalent to approximately 35.23% of 2025 revenue and 6.09x 2025 attributable net profit. The combined carrying value of inventory and contract-fulfillment costs was approximately RMB 1.260 billion, equivalent to approximately 16.20% of revenue. Prepayments were RMB 168 million, accounting for 1.24% of total assets, and the five largest prepayment recipients collectively accounted for 39.84% of prepayments. Revenue increased 44.45% in 2025, while accounts receivable increased 14.19% from the end of 2024, below the revenue growth rate. This indicates that accounts receivable as a percentage of revenue declined and collection efficiency improved from 2024, but the absolute scale of receivables remained high, reflecting capital tied up in project delivery and customer settlement. This does not indicate strong bargaining power over downstream customers. The annual report stated that the company controls accounts receivable and financial risk through advance receipts, installment procurement and installment delivery, while noting that bad-debt risk remains.
• Supplier and customer concentration figures are for 2025: the top five suppliers accounted for 24.89% of purchases and the largest supplier for 12.69%; the top five customers accounted for 27.27% of sales and the largest customer for 10.46%. Neither supplier nor customer names were disclosed. Customer concentration was explicitly provided for 2024 and 2025 only in the meeting notes, and the latest annual report should prevail.

The company occupies a technology-platform position in the midstream of the industry chain. It is neither in the high-bargaining-power upstream chip and basic-hardware segment nor a downstream terminal manufacturer with strong brand premiums. Further margin expansion will depend mainly on volume growth in intelligent-vehicle software licensing and vehicle operating systems, a higher contribution from AIOS, software IP and software licensing, and a lower proportion of intelligent IoT hardware delivery and materials procurement in revenue.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Results

Non-recurring-adjusted attributable net profit in 1H 2026 was RMB 233.5 million, up 71.32% year on year; basic EPS was RMB 0.5337, up 54.79% year on year. Non-recurring-adjusted attributable net profit in 2Q 2026 was approximately RMB 136 million, up 179.27% year on year. Net cash flow from operating activities in 1H 2026 was negative RMB 63.5727 million, down 123.83% year on year. The company attributed this mainly to increased inventory preparation during the reporting period.

The company maintained rapid revenue and profit growth in 1H 2026. Profit growth in 2Q was significantly higher than revenue growth, mainly due to lower expense ratios and improved operating leverage. Overall gross margin in 1H was 29.08%, down 4.08 percentage points year on year. Intelligent IoT revenue was RMB 1.866 billion, up 46.93% year on year, but gross margin was only 14.36%, below the 43.26% gross margin of intelligent vehicles and the 36.31% gross margin of intelligent software, creating some drag on the overall margin. The divergence between profit growth and negative operating cash flow warrants attention to inventory, accounts receivable and subsequent improvement in operating cash flow.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

As of September 11, 2026, Tonghuashun showed that 11 institutions had issued 2026 forecasts in the previous six months, 11 institutions had participated in 2027 forecasts and 10 institutions had participated in 2028 forecasts. The simple averages from five institutional research reports were compiled from disclosures by China Galaxy Securities, Huatai Securities, Western Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, BOC International Securities and China Renaissance Securities, among others. The meeting notes referred to five institutions, but the listed institutions actually included six; these simple averages should therefore be regarded as a reference range rather than formal consensus estimates. Institutional forecasts are not official company guidance. The 2026 institutional forecast range was approximately RMB 452 million–671 million for attributable net profit and approximately RMB 0.98–1.46 for EPS.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

As of the September 11, 2026 close, the company’s share price was RMB 54.45 and its A-share market capitalization was approximately RMB 25.140 billion. According to Lixinger, trailing P/E was approximately 46.79x, P/B approximately 2.38x and dividend yield approximately 0.34%. Rolling P/E was at approximately the 12.40th percentile of its historical valuation range, below the historical median of approximately 62.62x. Based on the average institutional forecasts on Tonghuashun, the current share price implied 2026–2028 P/Es of approximately 40.6x, 32.0x and 26.2x, respectively; based on China Galaxy’s forecasts, the corresponding P/Es were approximately 37.8x, 29.9x and 23.6x. Recent published research reports mainly carried target prices of RMB 72.50–85.00. Futunn’s aggregated market target price was approximately RMB 80.73 on average, with a high of RMB 89.79 and a low of RMB 72.50, although this is third-party aggregated data. Valuation methodologies mainly included 2026 P/E and SOTP. Huatai’s RMB 72.50 target price implied approximately 50x 2026 P/E, while China Galaxy’s RMB 77.44 target price implied approximately 60x forward P/E. Current valuation already reflects expectations for continued volume growth and profit expansion in AIOS, intelligent vehicles, intelligent IoT and robotics. Key risks include the low gross margin of intelligent IoT, temporarily negative operating cash flow, slower-than-expected commercialization of AIOS and robotics, and significant divergence among institutions regarding 2028 revenue and profit forecasts.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Subsidiary Completes Registration of Equity Investment Fund and Adjusts Partnership Structure

On September 11, 2026, ThunderSoft disclosed the Announcement on Progress in Joint Investment by a Subsidiary and Professional Institutions (Announcement No. 2026-054). The company’s wholly owned subsidiary Beijing Juyin Ronghe Technology Co., Ltd. plans to subscribe RMB 30.15 million using its own funds to participate in Beijing Guoke Shengcheng Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership). As of September 11, 2026, the fund had completed registration with the Asset Management Association of China under registration code SCJ076. China Science and Technology Industry Investment Management Co., Ltd. is the manager, and China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. is the custodian. The fund size was adjusted from the previously disclosed RMB 947.715 million to RMB 748.725 million. Beijing Juyin’s contribution remained RMB 30.15 million, while its contribution ratio increased from 3.1813% to 4.0268%. The company stated that the underlying project investment amount and Beijing Juyin’s contribution to the fund had not changed. The announcement did not disclose the names of specific underlying investments, investment-return forecasts or exit arrangements, and the short-term contribution to operating results remains unclear. Source: Sina Finance announcement page, dated September 11, 2026.

4.2 2026 First Extraordinary General Meeting Approves Multiple Proposals

On September 10, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on Resolutions of the First Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026 (Announcement No. 2026-053). A total of 417 shareholders and shareholder representatives attended through on-site and online voting, representing 144,279,729 shares, or 31.2485% of the company’s total voting shares. No proposals were rejected. The meeting approved proposals concerning the completion of 2022 private-placement fundraising projects and the permanent replenishment of working capital with surplus proceeds, estimated guarantee facilities for controlling subsidiaries, the provision of financial assistance to controlling subsidiaries, and changes to registered capital and amendments to the Articles of Association. Approval rates were 99.7841%, 87.6922%, 87.6115% and 99.7786%, respectively. Actual controller Zhao Hongfei abstained from voting on the guarantee and financial-assistance proposals.

4.3 Fundraising Projects Completed; RMB 871.32 Million in Surplus Proceeds Proposed for Permanent Working-Capital Replenishment

The company disclosed the relevant announcement on August 26, 2026, and the proposal was approved by the extraordinary general meeting on September 10, 2026. Net proceeds from the company’s 2022 private placement were RMB 3.08736 billion. As of August 13, 2026, cumulative investment in the fundraising projects was RMB 2.21604 billion, or 71.78% of net proceeds. Surplus proceeds from the projects proposed for completion totaled RMB 871.32 million, plus bank interest income through the date of transfer. The projects included vehicle operating-system R&D, edge-computing station R&D and industrialization, extended reality (XR) R&D and industrialization, and distributed-computing-network technology R&D. Surplus funds mainly resulted from cost savings during implementation, the decision to lease rather than purchase office space, cash management of idle proceeds and interest income. After the funds are permanently used to replenish working capital, attention should be paid to their actual use and support for core R&D and automotive intelligence businesses.

4.4 Approved to Provide Financial Assistance of Up to RMB 300 Million to a Controlling Subsidiary

On August 26, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on the Provision of Financial Assistance to a Controlling Subsidiary (Announcement No. 2026-050), which was approved by shareholders on September 10, 2026. The recipient is Suzhou Changxing Intelligent Driving Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., in which the company holds a 56.06% stake. The financial-assistance facility is capped at RMB 300 million, with a validity period of 36 months from approval by the shareholders’ meeting. Each loan has a one-year term and may be repaid early. The interest rate is set at the one-year LPR on the loan-agreement signing date plus 20%. Funds will be used for routine operating activities such as inventory preparation. As of June 30, 2026, Changxing Intelligent Driving had unaudited total assets of RMB 256.52 million, total liabilities of RMB 187.51 million, net assets of RMB 69.0071 million and an asset-liability ratio of 73.10%. Revenue in 1H 2026 was RMB 113.51 million and net profit was negative RMB 9.2382 million. The RMB 300 million represents an authorized facility and does not mean that the full amount has been used.

4.5 Approved to Provide Guarantee Facilities of Up to RMB 300 Million to a Controlling Subsidiary

On August 26, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on Estimated Guarantee Facilities for a Controlling Subsidiary (Announcement No. 2026-049), which was approved by shareholders on September 10, 2026. The guaranteed entity is Suzhou Changxing Intelligent Driving Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., in which the company holds a 56.06% stake. New guarantee facilities will not exceed RMB 300 million, including the equivalent amount in foreign currencies. The guarantee period is one year from approval by the shareholders’ meeting. Guarantee methods include general guarantees, joint and several liability guarantees, mortgages, pledges and domestic guarantees for overseas loans. As of the announcement date, the outstanding guarantee balance was RMB 0, and the new facility represented 2.84% of the company’s most recent net assets. As of June 30, 2026, Changxing Intelligent Driving’s asset-liability ratio was 73.10%, and its 1H 2026 net profit was negative RMB 9.2382 million. The facility is an authorization ceiling and does not mean that RMB 300 million of guarantee debt has actually arisen.

4.6 1H 2026 Earnings Guidance Indicates Year-on-Year Profit Growth

As of September 14, 2026, the latest earnings guidance identified was the 1H 2026 earnings forecast, dated July 18, 2026. No third-quarter 2026 earnings forecast or earnings revision announcement newly disclosed in September 2026 was identified. The company expected 1H 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be RMB 237.7124–245.6362 million, up 50%–55% year on year; non-recurring-adjusted net profit was expected to be RMB 218.0859–231.7163 million, up 60%–70% year on year; and 1H revenue was expected to increase by more than 30% year on year. The company attributed growth mainly to its globalization strategy, progress in the AIOS strategy and deeper application of AIOS technology across multiple terminals and scenarios. These figures were preliminary estimates and had not been audited by an accounting firm. The company disclosed its interim report on August 26, 2026, with public information showing 1H attributable net profit of approximately RMB 246 million, up 54.97% year on year, broadly consistent with the forecast range.

4.7 Previous Share Repurchase Completed and Shares Cancelled; No New September Repurchase Plan Identified

As of September 14, 2026, no new share-repurchase plan or progress announcement for a new repurchase period disclosed in September 2026 was identified. The company’s previous repurchase was completed in May 2026, with an aggregate of 1,037,600 shares repurchased, representing approximately 0.23% of total shares before cancellation. Total repurchase consideration was approximately RMB 60.0098 million, excluding transaction costs. The highest and lowest repurchase prices were RMB 78.10 and RMB 48.65 per share, respectively. The shares were cancelled on May 22, 2026, reducing total share capital from 460,771,144 shares to 459,733,544 shares.

4.8 No New September Disposal or Pledge Changes by the Controlling Shareholder or Major Shareholders Identified

As of September 14, 2026, searches of public announcements identified no new September disposal plans or disposal-result announcements by the controlling shareholder or shareholders holding more than 5%, nor any new September pledges, pledge releases or changes in actual control. The most recent significant shareholder-equity change was Zhao Hongfei’s share pledge and release disclosed on June 15, 2026. Newly pledged shares totaled 6.8 million, representing 1.47% of total company shares; 4.2 million shares were pledged to Galaxy Jinhui Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. and 2.6 million shares to China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. During the same period, 8.1 million shares were released from pledge. As of the announcement date, Zhao Hongfei had pledged an aggregate of 6.8 million shares, representing 5.56% of his holdings and 1.47% of total company shares. The company stated that there was no risk of forced liquidation and that actual control would not change. This conclusion is based on public announcement databases, the company’s announcement list and public search results; publication delays or omissions from individual databases cannot be ruled out.

4.9 Business Registration Change Completed; Registered Capital Set at RMB 460.771144 Million

The company completed its business-registration change and received a renewed business license on August 3, 2026, with registered capital recorded at RMB 460.771144 million. The change was mainly attributable to the listing of shares vested under the 2021 restricted-stock incentive plan, which increased total shares from 460,012,019 to 460,771,144. This was a business-registration change following equity-incentive vesting, not a new acquisition or change of control.

4.10 No Regulatory Penalties or Major Litigation Identified

As of September 14, 2026, no announcement concerning regulatory penalties, a formal investigation, inquiry letters, major litigation or major administrative regulatory measures against ThunderSoft had been identified. Recent announcements mainly concerned registration and structural adjustments of an equity investment fund, completion of fundraising projects, financial assistance to a controlling subsidiary, guarantees for a controlling subsidiary, and changes to the Articles of Association and registered capital.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, ThunderSoft was in a pullback phase following its early-September rally, with a closing price of RMB 54.45, close to the Bollinger lower-band observation zone of approximately RMB 54.1–54.6. The share price was below the MA5, MA10 and MA20; MACD was below the zero line with DIF below DEA; and KDJ was weak. The overall technical pattern was weak. At the same time, RSI6 was 25.5, entering a traditional oversold zone and leaving room for a technical rebound, but this does not confirm a trend reversal. In terms of capital flows, the high-volume decline and relatively large net outflow of major funds on September 8 were followed by lower trading value. Trading value on September 11 was approximately RMB 496 million, below the rough 20-day average of approximately RMB 615 million, indicating relatively low volume following the decline, with no clear strengthening in buying support.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, publicly available technical indicators and capital flows. It does not constitute investment advice or a deterministic forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively high subjective weight, approximately 50%–60%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and capital-flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Expected range approximately RMB 53.5–56.5. Trigger conditions are support near RMB 53.4–54.6, trading value remaining around RMB 400–600 million, a clear narrowing of major-fund net outflows and no high-volume break below RMB 53.4. Low RSI6 may produce a technical rebound, but the area around RMB 56–58 may still face moving-average resistance.
• Weak decline (medium subjective weight, approximately 30%; a subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): Expected range approximately RMB 51.9–54.0. Trigger conditions are a decisive break below RMB 53.4 accompanied by daily trading value materially above recent averages, or continued consecutive net outflows of major funds. If support near RMB 52 also fails, the 52-week low may be tested. MACD, moving averages and capital flows have not ruled out further weakness, although if trading value does not continue to expand, the pattern may instead be a gradual weak decline.
• Stronger rebound (low subjective weight, approximately 10%–20%; a subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): Expected range approximately RMB 56.5–59.0. Trigger conditions are first reclaiming RMB 56.5, then breaking above the concentrated moving-average zone of RMB 57.8–58.1 on increased volume, with daily trading value reaching at least approximately RMB 750 million and major funds shifting from consecutive net outflows to consecutive net inflows. A further break above approximately RMB 59 could lead to a rebound toward the previous RMB 59.5–60.0 area. Before volume and major-fund flows cooperate, a rebound based solely on RSI oversold conditions would be closer to a technical repair than a trend reversal.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, turnover was 2.48% and trading value was approximately RMB 496 million. Trading value over the latest 20 trading days ranged from approximately RMB 369 million to RMB 995 million, with a rough average of approximately RMB 615 million. Trading activity remained acceptable, but September 11 trading value was below the recent average and the RMB 884 million recorded during the high-volume decline on September 8, indicating relatively low volume after the decline. The number of shareholders was approximately 94,000 as of June 30, 2026, down 697 from March 31, 2026, or approximately 0.74% sequentially. As of March 31, 2026, the top 10 free-float shareholders collectively held approximately 16.33% of free-float shares. Public funds and index funds collectively held approximately 3.70%, while Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited held approximately 1.14%. The largest free-float shareholder, Zhao Hongfei, held approximately 30.5878 million shares, or 8.30% of free-float shares. The shareholder structure includes the actual controller or individuals as well as public and index funds and is not entirely institution-led. The above concentration and institutional-holding data are based on 1Q 2026 reporting, with an announcement date of April 27, 2026. A considerable period has passed since the current price data, and share prices and institutional holdings may have changed; these figures should not be treated as the real-time September 2026 ownership structure. Based on current data, the stock is not a low-liquidity small-cap stock, but active funds are weak during the pullback. If a high-volume breakdown occurs, price volatility may expand materially.

Observable volume-confirmation signals: If the share price reclaims the RMB 56.5–58.0 range and daily trading value exceeds approximately RMB 750 million for two consecutive trading days, while major funds no longer record consecutive net outflows, this could confirm improved short-term buying support. Conversely, if the stock breaks below RMB 53.4 with trading value materially above recent averages, investors should be alert to support failure.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 53.4–54.6 area produces a low-volume bottom; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether the RMB 56.5–58.1 moving-average concentration zone can be reclaimed; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether major funds end their consecutive net outflows, particularly whether large-order flows after September 8 can turn positive; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether daily trading value exceeds approximately RMB 750 million for consecutive sessions and whether this coincides with a price breakout; this is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.

The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices will also be affected by news flow, capital flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators themselves have lagging effects and limitations. This does not guarantee the actual future performance of the share price and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear investment risks themselves.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Conditions

The company operates across related segments including intelligent-vehicle software, intelligent terminals and edge AI, industrial IoT and mobile robotics. Core industry trends include the evolution of automotive electrical and electronic architectures toward central computing, cockpit-driving integration and software-defined vehicles, as well as the extension of operating systems, basic software, middleware, AI and edge computing to more terminals and industry scenarios. The company has not disclosed an independent market-share ranking covering all of its businesses, and its overall industry market share should therefore not be inferred from the available information.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The upstream intelligent-vehicle software chain includes sensors, chips, algorithms, operating systems, cloud platforms and electrical/electronic architectures; the midstream includes intelligent cockpits, intelligent driving, vehicle software and automotive-electronics solutions; and the downstream comprises automakers, dealers and related service providers. As central computing, cockpit-driving integration and software-defined vehicles develop, the value of basic software, operating systems and middleware is increasing.
• Competitive participants in intelligent-vehicle software include automakers’ in-house software teams; technology companies such as Huawei and Baidu; traditional automotive-electronics and software suppliers such as Desay SV and Jingwei Hirain; map and intelligent-driving software companies such as NavInfo; and independent automotive software companies such as ThunderSoft, Kotei Informatics and Archermind Technology. Company management has stated that direct domestic competitors in intelligent-vehicle system software are relatively limited. This is a management view and does not represent independent third-party market-share data.
• Competitors in intelligent terminals and edge AI include software stacks from chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm, MediaTek and Intel; operating systems and ecosystem platforms such as Huawei HarmonyOS, Google Android and Microsoft Windows; proprietary systems developed by terminal manufacturers; and specialized system-software and embedded-software service providers.
• Competitors in industrial IoT and mobile robotics include industrial robotics companies such as ABB, FANUC and Yaskawa; domestic industrial automation and control companies such as Inovance and SUPCON; logistics-robotics and AMR companies; robotics manufacturers such as DJI with hardware and algorithm capabilities; and traditional systems integrators and in-house customer teams.
• The company’s competitive advantages lie in providing operating-system adaptation, AI middleware, systems engineering and product-delivery services across chips, terminals and scenarios, while attempting to platformize operating systems, edge computing, AI, motion control, sensing, navigation and fleet scheduling. Its weaknesses are that robotics and industry-AI businesses remain in an expansion phase, and its brand, scaled delivery, hardware supply chain and project profitability still require validation.

6.3 Major Competitors

Compared with Kotei Informatics and Archermind Technology, ThunderSoft has stronger platform-based operating systems, software licensing and cross-terminal capabilities. Compared with NavInfo, its main differentiation lies in operating systems, intelligent cockpits and system middleware rather than maps and location data. Compared with Jingwei Hirain and Desay SV, ThunderSoft has weaker hardware manufacturing and systems-integration capabilities but stronger software-platform, operating-system and edge-intelligence characteristics. The comparable companies above were selected based on business overlap and industry-chain position and do not represent the sole list of competitors identified by the company in its announcements.

7. Risk Factors

• Rapid revenue growth but low profitability in intelligent IoT: Intelligent IoT revenue increased 46.93% year on year in 1H 2026, but gross margin was only 14.36%. If the share of hardware products, modules and materials procurement continues to rise, overall gross margin may face further pressure.
• Divergence between operating cash flow and profit growth: Net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 63.5727 million in 1H 2026, which the company attributed mainly to increased inventory preparation. If inventory, accounts receivable or project settlements continue to tie up funds, profit growth may not convert into cash flow at the same pace.
• High accounts receivable and customer concentration: As of the end of 2025, accounts receivable were RMB 2.740 billion, approximately 6.09x 2025 attributable net profit. The top five customers’ share of sales rose from 18.65% in 2024 to 27.27% in 2025, while the largest customer accounted for 10.46%. Changes in customer orders, model mass production, project acceptance or collections may affect revenue recognition and bad-debt risk.
• Dependence on core chips and computing platforms: The company must adapt to chips and computing platforms from Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Renesas, NXP and others and is closer to a price taker in core chips and specific computing platforms. Adverse changes in supply, adaptation schedules or procurement costs could affect project delivery and gross margin.
• Financial-assistance and guarantee risks at a controlling subsidiary: Suzhou Changxing Intelligent Driving recorded 1H 2026 net profit of negative RMB 9.2382 million and an asset-liability ratio of 73.10%. The company was approved to provide up to RMB 300 million in financial assistance and up to RMB 300 million in guarantee facilities. Although authorized amounts do not equal amounts actually used or guarantee liabilities actually incurred, weaker-than-expected subsidiary operations could increase fund-recovery and contingent-liability pressure.
• Uncertainty in commercialization of AIOS, vehicle operating systems and robotics: Robotics and industry AI remain in an expansion and industrialization phase, and the 2025 annual report did not separately disclose robotics revenue. If related platforms, software IP or vehicle operating systems fail to ramp up as expected, relatively high R&D investment and project-delivery costs may continue to pressure margins.
• High requirements for earnings delivery from valuation and technical conditions: As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 54.45 and forward P/E was approximately 47.7–48x. The share price was below short-term moving averages, MACD was weak and major funds had recently recorded net outflows. If earnings growth, margin improvement or cash-flow recovery falls short of market expectations, valuation volatility may increase.
• Continued monitoring of fund use after completion of fundraising projects: The company plans to permanently use RMB 871.32 million in surplus proceeds from vehicle operating-system, edge-computing-station, XR and distributed-computing-network projects to replenish working capital. If the actual use of funds provides insufficient support for core R&D and automotive intelligence, investment and delivery in these long-term businesses could be affected.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company has established a business system combining operating systems, edge AI, middleware, toolchains and systems-engineering delivery, with intelligent vehicles, intelligent software, intelligent IoT and robotics providing room for multi-scenario expansion. In 1H 2026, profit growth exceeded revenue growth, indicating that lower expense ratios and improved operating leverage were beginning to emerge. Institutions generally expect revenue and attributable net profit to grow from 2026 through 2028, but these forecasts are not official company guidance, and institutions show some divergence regarding longer-term performance.

Key variables going forward include the mass-production ramp-up of intelligent-vehicle software licensing and vehicle operating systems, commercialization of AIOS and edge intelligence, changes in the share of low-margin intelligent IoT hardware, and the industrialization progress of robotics and industry AI. The company plans to permanently use RMB 871.32 million in surplus proceeds to replenish working capital and has been approved to provide up to RMB 300 million in financial assistance and up to RMB 300 million in guarantee facilities to a loss-making controlling subsidiary with an asset-liability ratio of 73.10%. The use of funds, operating cash flow, accounts receivable and inventory trends will affect the sustainability of growth and the quality of profit realization.

Data Sources

• PDF
• https://disc.static.szse.cn/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-04-22/06faffda-aa5c-4039-a391-7422b803742a.PDF
• https://reportify-1252068037.cos.ap-beijing.myqcloud.com/media/production/3004969aa89c561a54dac22567272184ec95f1_20241011045140.pdf
• ThunderSoft: 2022 Annual Report_Stock Channel_Securities Star
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• 2024 China Strategic Emerging Industries—Intelligent Connected Vehicle Industry Panorama (Including Industry Scale, Regional Distribution, Corporate Layout and Technology Roadmap)_Industry Research Report - Qianzhan
• Kotei Informatics (301221)_Company Announcements_1-1 Prospectus (Application Draft)_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• SZSE Investor Education Event in Beijing—ThunderSoft: Vehicle Operating Systems and Others to Enter Investment-Return Phase
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: Summary of 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ThunderSoft (300496) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-22/1225141001.PDF
• ThunderSoft (300496) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Earnings Forecast
• Earnings Forecast
• ThunderSoft (300496): AIOS Strategy Upgrade Accelerates Multi-Terminal Intelligence Deployment__Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ThunderSoft (300496) Stock Forecast and Analyst Ratings - Futunn
• ThunderSoft (300496) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts_Investing.com
• ThunderSoft (300496) P/E Ratio|Valuation|Fundamentals - Lixinger
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: Announcement on Progress in Joint Investment by a Subsidiary and Professional Institutions_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: Announcement on Resolutions of the First Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: Announcement on Completion of 2022 Private-Placement Fundraising Projects and Permanent Replenishment of Working Capital with Surplus Proceeds_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: Announcement on Provision of Financial Assistance to a Controlling Subsidiary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: Announcement on Estimated Guarantee Facilities for a Controlling Subsidiary_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Stock Code: 300496　　Stock Abbreviation: ThunderSoft　　Announcement No. 2026-040
• Stock Code: 300496　　Stock Abbreviation: ThunderSoft　　Announcement No. 2026-033
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Company Announcements_ThunderSoft: Announcement on Pledge and Release of Certain Shares by the Controlling Shareholder_Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Stock Code: 300496　　Stock Abbreviation: ThunderSoft　　Announcement No. 2026-042
• ThunderSoft (300496) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts_Investing.com
• ThunderSoft (300496.SZ) Stock Quotes_Historical Data_Major-Fund Flows - Dalang Data
• ThunderSoft (300496.SZ) - Basic Information
• ThunderSoft (300496.SZ) Stock Quotes_Historical Data_Major-Fund Flows - Dalang Data
• ThunderSoft (300496)_Capital Flows_Securities Star
• ThunderSoft (300496) - Historical Trading Data | DabanKe

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current through the technical-analysis benchmark of the September 11, 2026 closing data; data for September 14, 2026 consists only of intraday or delayed quotes and was not used as the closing-price benchmark. There may be timing differences. Specific data should be confirmed against the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.