Guangdong Shenling Environmental Systems Co., Ltd. (301018)

Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Special-purpose air conditioning and temperature-control equipment (liquid-cooling temperature control) | Report date: September 13, 2026 | Price and market data as of the close on 2026-09-11 (Friday); shareholder-structure data such as number of shareholders/institutional holdings as of 2026-06-30 (disclosure date approximately 2026-08-28/29, lagging by approximately 2.5 months); margin-trading data as of 2026-09-10; northbound capital holdings as of 2026-06-30; external-source Bollinger Band data date 2026-09-09; MA60/MA120 source data date 2026-09-09.

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Shenling Environment (301018) showed clear revenue growth without profit growth in H1 2026: revenue of RMB 1.756 billion, up only 4.39% year on year, while net profit attributable to parent was RMB 54.0454 million, down sharply 64.07% year on year; non-recurring net profit attributable to parent was RMB 46.2422 million, down 68.95% year on year; basic earnings per share was RMB 0.14, down 65.00% year on year; weighted average ROE was only 1.96%, and gross margin was approximately 19.65%. The company attributed the decline to four main reasons: delayed revenue recognition from project carryover, higher selling expenses from overseas expansion, higher R&D expenses from liquid-cooling and overseas new-product development, and lower gross margin due to intensifying competition in the industrial special-purpose segment. This performance forms a sharp contrast with the high growth in the 2025 annual report — full-year 2025 revenue was RMB 4.209 billion (+39.55%), net profit attributable to parent was RMB 217 million (+87.59%), comprehensive gross margin was 23.99%, and net margin was 5.35%. As of the close on 2026-09-11, the price was RMB 96.00, dynamic PE was 332.42x, PE(TTM) was approximately 298.41x, price-to-book was 13.17x, and total market capitalization was RMB 35.931 billion. The degree of divergence between valuation and current earnings is the fact that must be faced most squarely at the decision-making level.

The core support for the medium-term logic lies in leading signals from orders and revenue structure: revenue from the data-service industry environment in 2025 was RMB 2.343 billion (+51.42%, accounting for approximately 55.67%), revenue from industrial process R&D environments was RMB 1.137 billion (+86.11%, of which power and energy business was approximately +234% year on year); 2025 solution and service revenue was RMB 925 million (+105.59%), with a gross margin of 31.63%, higher than the 21.46% for equipment sales, structurally driving improvement in overall profitability. However, it should be noted that the industrial segment's 2025 gross margin was 23.92%, down 7.38pct year on year; revenue in the special-purpose segment was RMB 598 million, down 15.06% year on year; and the public-building and commercial segment was RMB 115 million, down 17.16% year on year, showing clear divergence in internal structure.

The positive signals in the 2026 interim report are concentrated in orders and goods shipped: goods shipped increased by approximately RMB 800 million from the beginning of the period, with the increase mainly from the data-computing-power service business, and the company expects a considerable portion to complete acceptance and revenue carryover within the year; new orders in the data-service segment increased by approximately 1.3x year on year, of which new effective liquid-cooling-related orders were approximately RMB 1.8 billion (referring to effective orders with clear delivery demand, including prepaid orders and some large-customer orders paid after receipt of goods). At the end of 2026Q1, contract liabilities were RMB 430 million (+56.5% versus end-2025), and inventory was RMB 1.29 billion (+48.7%), which also indirectly reflects a relatively heavy on-hand delivery task. However, the sharp decline in 2026H1 net profit coexists with institutions' high full-year growth forecasts, and performance realization is highly dependent on the pace of order carryover and capacity release in the second half.

Technically, the stock is in a stage of shrinking-volume consolidation after a high-level pullback: the closing price of RMB 96.00 is below MA5 (100.38), MA10 (103.87), and MA20 (100.30); MACD formed a death cross above the zero axis on September 10; from the intraday high of RMB 116.00 on September 3, it has continuously retreated, with volume shrinking from 28.90 million shares to 13.58 million shares (approximately 71% of the 65-day average volume), and volume ratio of 0.78; over the past 5 trading days, main funds recorded a total net outflow of approximately RMB 788 million, and the margin balance fell for 3 consecutive days to RMB 1.079 billion. The chip profit ratio is 31.89%, the average holding cost is approximately RMB 99.89, and the RMB 100~108 area is a dense trapped zone.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Data-service industry environment (liquid cooling/air cooling/phase-change cooling and other data-center temperature-control solutions, 2025 revenue RMB 2.343 billion, 55.67% of total, +51.42% year on year, gross margin 23.60%)
• Industrial process R&D environment (including power and energy, etc., 2025 revenue RMB 1.137 billion, 27.02% of total, +86.11% year on year, gross margin 23.92%)
• Professional special-purpose application environment (special industries, 2025 revenue RMB 598 million, 14.20% of total, gross margin 25.83%)
• Public building and commercial environment (public building and commercial, combined 2025 revenue with special industries RMB 713 million)

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

Shenling Environment mainly engages in special-purpose air conditioning and temperature-control equipment, integrating R&D and design, manufacturing, marketing services, integrated implementation, and operation and maintenance, covering four major scenarios: data-service industry environment, industrial process R&D environment, professional special-purpose application environment, and public building and commercial environment. Product lines include the liquid-cooling series (CDU, Manifold, integrated cooling source, dry cooler, prefabricated pipe network, liquid-cooling door, cold plate, quick connector, and other full-stack solutions), air-cooling series, phase-change cooling (DPC phase-change cooling system), computer-room air conditioning, energy-storage liquid-cooling temperature control, nuclear-power special-purpose air conditioning, subway/airport special-purpose air conditioning, dehumidifiers, etc. By product form, it is split into equipment sales (2025: RMB 3.269 billion, 77.66% of total, gross margin 21.46%) and solutions and services (2025: RMB 925 million, 21.97% of total, gross margin 31.63%).

• The research minutes do not disclose the company's specific categories of raw materials/components procured or upstream supplier concentration data; data missing.
• The upstream clue related to bargaining power appearing in the minutes is: the listing sponsor letter disclosed that "in recent years, the data-service industry has developed vigorously, demand for refrigeration equipment has surged, competition in this industry has intensified, and brands have strong bargaining power, so the equipment gross margin space applied to this industry has been continuously compressed" — the bargaining pressure here points more to brands (downstream) rather than upstream.
• The minutes do not provide a direct conclusion on whether the company has pricing power over upstream or is a price taker; this point is missing data.
• Downstream is divided by four major application scenarios: data-service industry environment (data centers/computing power), industrial process R&D environment (including power and energy business, approximately +234% year on year in 2025, involving energy-storage liquid-cooling temperature control, lithium-battery manufacturing, ultra-high-voltage power grids, and pumped storage), professional special-purpose application environment (nuclear power, etc.), and public building and commercial environment.
• The listing sponsor letter disclosed: in the data-service industry, "brands have strong bargaining power," and the equipment gross margin space applied to this industry has been continuously compressed, reflecting downstream brand customers' pressure on equipment makers.
• The concept tags in the minutes show that customers/ecosystem involve leading manufacturers such as Huawei, Tencent, and Baidu, but the specific data for the combined proportion of the top five customers is not disclosed; customer concentration data is missing.
• Historical working-capital signals disclosed in the research minutes: according to 2019 media reports (reposted by Sina Finance, Phoenix Finance, Sohu, etc.), from 2015 to 2017, the company's overdue accounts receivable were RMB 157 million, RMB 150 million, and RMB 181 million, respectively, accounting for 31.76%, 27.72%, and 31.82% of accounts receivable balances; from 2014 to 2017, the accounts receivable amounts for which bad-debt provisions were made on a portfolio basis were RMB 45.1236 million, RMB 53.8097 million, RMB 67.4326 million, and RMB 78.6475 million, respectively. The company responded at the time that overdue accounts receivable were "mainly related to the company's customer structure and the market environment in which it operates." The above data are historical data for 2014–2017, not the latest basis; the minutes do not provide the latest working-capital indicators such as 2025 accounts receivable turnover days, and the latest data is missing.
• The research minutes do not disclose the specific value of the combined proportion of the company's top five customers; customer concentration data is missing; downstream customers involve multiple scenarios such as data services (brands have strong bargaining power), industrial energy, nuclear-power special purposes, and public-building commercial use, none of which provide quantified concentration data. Upstream supplier concentration is likewise not disclosed. The above judgments are based on de-duplicated information from the minutes, and the latest annual report disclosure should prevail.

Shenling Environment is positioned in the midstream link of the industry chain: temperature-control equipment and integrated solutions. Upstream is undisclosed procurement of raw materials/components (bargaining-power status data missing); downstream includes data-center brands, industrial energy, nuclear-power special purposes, and public-building customers. In the data-service field, "brands have strong bargaining power," putting pressure on equipment gross margin, and the company overall shows the characteristics of a midstream manufacturer with relatively thin margins (2025 comprehensive gross margin 23.99%, net margin 5.35%). Further gross-margin improvement is driven by: recovery in the data-service segment gross margin (+4.26pct, driven by high-value-added products such as liquid cooling and structural optimization), an increase in the revenue share of high-gross-margin solutions and services (2025 solutions and services gross margin 31.63%, revenue +105.59% year on year), and large-scale volume ramp-up of power and energy business within the industrial segment.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The above data sources: Gelonghui/Securities Star, Sina Finance, 21 Finance, AASTOCKS, Shenzhen Stock Exchange 2025 annual report summary, Sinolink Securities 2026-04-28 research report, AVIC Securities 2026-08-03 research report, and other multi-sources; the core data for 2026H1 and the 2025 annual report are consistent across multiple sources. 2026H1 non-recurring net profit attributable to parent was RMB 46.2422 million (YoY -68.95%), basic earnings per share was RMB 0.14 (YoY -65.00%), weighted average ROE was 1.96%, gross margin was approximately 19.65%, and asset-liability ratio was 66.58%. At the end of 2026Q1, contract liabilities were RMB 430 million (+56.5% versus end-2025), and inventory was RMB 1.29 billion (+48.7%). The 2025 annual report showed total assets of RMB 6.342 billion (+18.33%), net assets attributable to parent of RMB 2.727 billion (+7.63%), non-recurring net profit attributable to parent of approximately RMB 210 million (+84.29%), and a dividend proposal of cash RMB 2.5 per 10 shares plus 4 shares for every 10 shares. Separately, according to estimates (non-disclosed basis), TTM net profit attributable to parent is approximately RMB 120 million.

2026H1 revenue rose slightly by 4.39% year on year, but net profit attributable to parent fell sharply by 64.07% year on year, showing revenue growth without profit growth. The company stated that the main reasons for the net profit decline were: ① delayed revenue recognition from project carryover, causing revenue growth to fall short of expectations; ② overseas expansion increased selling expenses; ③ liquid-cooling and overseas new-product R&D increased R&D expenses; ④ intensifying competition in the industrial special-purpose segment led to a decline in gross margin. On positive signals: goods shipped increased by approximately RMB 800 million from the beginning of the period (mainly from the data-computing-power service business, with a considerable portion expected to complete acceptance and carryover within the year); new orders in the data-service segment increased by approximately 1.3x year on year, of which new effective liquid-cooling-related orders were approximately RMB 1.8 billion. The 2025 annual report data show data-service segment revenue of RMB 2.343 billion (+51.42%, approximately 55.7% of total), industrial segment RMB 1.137 billion (+86.38%, of which power and energy business +234%), special-purpose segment RMB 598 million (-15.06%), and public-building and commercial segment RMB 115 million (-17.16%). It should be noted that the sharp decline in 2026H1 net profit coexists with institutions' high full-year growth forecasts, and performance realization strongly depends on order carryover and capacity release in the second half, with relatively high execution risk.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Forecast data mainly come from the East Money F10 earnings forecast page (as of approximately early September 2026), as well as Tonghuashun iNews, gubit.cn aggregation, Zhongtai Securities, Guohai Securities, AVIC Securities, Guotai Haitong, Tianfeng Securities, Sinolink Securities, and other research reports. Important uncertainty/outlier warning: Sinolink Securities' 2027E net profit attributable to parent of RMB 2.20 billion and 2028E of RMB 4.39 billion far exceed all other institutions (most others are in the RMB 600–1,100 million range), and its 2027E EPS of RMB 5.88 is also an extreme outlier; excluding this outlier, most institutions' 2027E net profit attributable to parent expectations are concentrated at RMB 600–730 million, and 2028E at approximately RMB 740–1,060 million. East Money's "past six-month average" is distorted because the sample is only 5–6 institutions and includes outliers (2027E net profit basis differs by RMB 660 million vs RMB 930 million), so it must be used cautiously and the number of institutions noted. Sinolink Securities' 2027/2028 figures should be regarded as a single optimistic scenario. In addition, because of the 2025 annual 4-for-10 share conversion, EPS has an issue of inconsistent old share capital/latest share capital bases (e.g., 2025A EPS RMB 0.43 on the old share capital vs RMB 0.5792 on the new share capital), so the share capital basis must be unified when comparing.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

Share price/market capitalization (as of the close on 2026-09-10, source: Securities Star reposted via Toutiao): closing price RMB 97.27, -3.41% on the day, turnover rate 4.81%, transaction amount RMB 1.334 billion, main funds net outflow RMB 246 million, margin financing and securities lending balance RMB 1.086 billion; total share capital approximately 374.28 million shares (after the 2025 annual 4-for-10 conversion; Morningstar shows 374.28M), total market capitalization approximately RMB 36.4 billion (estimate: 97.27 × 374.28 million shares). Valuation multiples (estimates/third-party basis): PE(TTM) is extremely high; based on TTM net profit attributable to parent of approximately RMB 120 million, it is estimated at around 300x; Tonghuashun/East Money "2025A P/E" shows a range of 160–180x (different basis, based on latest share capital); dynamic PE based on 2026E consensus net profit attributable to parent of approximately RMB 440 million is around 80x, based on 2027E consensus of RMB 650–930 million is approximately 40–56x, and if Sinolink Securities' outlier is accepted, it falls to as low as 18x/9x (not recommended for direct use). On PB, Morningstar shows Price/Book of approximately 14.56 (corresponding to a price of approximately RMB 107.88), while compared with 2025 year-end net assets per share attributable to parent of RMB 10.25 (pre-conversion basis, approximately RMB 7.3/share post-conversion) and the current price of RMB 97.27, PB is approximately 9–13x. On P/S, Morningstar shows approximately 9.51. Morningstar Key Statistics (at the then price of RMB 107.88): Price/Earnings (Normalized) 204.80, Price/Cash Flow 180.89, dividend yield 0.17%. Rating statistics: under East Money's F10 basis, a total of 7 institutions within 1 year, 5 Buy and 2 Overweight, composite rating "Buy"; within the past 3 months, 4 institutions (3 Buy, 1 Overweight); under Tonghuashun basis (2026-08-29), 7 institutions over the past six months, 4 Buy and 3 Overweight. Tonghuashun forecasts a 2026 average target price of RMB 201.95, but this "average target price" is actually contributed by very few brokerages (especially Guotai Haitong), not an average consensus of many institutions; the current price of approximately RMB 97 is far below this target price and must be viewed cautiously. Guotai Haitong's target price appears in two versions, RMB 201.95 and RMB 144.07, in different reposted sources and could not be verified, marked as questionable. Risk note: the current price of RMB 97.27 is from a reposted source and has not been cross-verified with a second independent source for the same-day closing price; market capitalization/PE are estimated based on this price; earnings forecasts diverge greatly (2027E net profit attributable to parent ranges from RMB 612 million to RMB 2.20 billion, a span of nearly 4x), execution risk is relatively high, and this is predictive information.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Equity Incentive: First Grant of the Third Tranche of Restricted Shares

On September 11, 2026, the company held the 21st meeting of the fourth board of directors and approved the "Proposal on the First Grant of Restricted Shares to Incentive Recipients" (Announcement No. 2026-055); on the same day, it issued the "Announcement on the First Grant of Restricted Shares to Incentive Recipients" (Announcement No. 2026-056). First grant date: September 11, 2026; first grant quantity: 2.85 million shares; grant price: RMB 43.55/share; equity incentive method: Type II restricted shares; number of incentive recipients: 219 (including foreign employee LEE KENG SENG); source of shares: A-share ordinary shares issued by the company in a directed issuance to incentive recipients. Vesting arrangement: in two tranches, vesting 12 months and 24 months after the grant date, with 50% vesting each time. Company-level performance assessment uses 2025 as the base year and assesses 2026 and 2027 operating revenue growth rates. Related directors Pan Zhanhua, Chen Bihua, and Ye Guoxian recused themselves from voting; voting result was 6 votes in favor, 0 against, 0 abstentions, 3 recusals. Prior procedural chain: 2026-08-10, the 18th meeting of the fourth board of directors approved the "Third Tranche Restricted Stock Incentive Plan (Draft)" → internal publicity from 2026-08-10 to 08-20 → 2026-08-29 disclosure of the verification opinion on the incentive list and the self-inspection report of insiders (Announcement No. 2026-053) → 2026-09-04, the second extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 approved the incentive plan → 2026-09-11, the board determined the first grant. Note: the grant price of RMB 43.55/share can be regarded as a reference clue for judging the stock price range at that time (the grant price of Type II restricted shares is usually significantly lower than the market price), but it should not be used directly as the market price.

4.2 Investor Relations Activity (Investor Relations Activity Record Table Announced on September 7, 2026)

On liquid cooling: the company stated that liquid cooling has gradually become a standard configuration for heat dissipation of high-power computing-power servers, and penetration will continue to rise in the future; the certainty of rapid AI development is strong, and competition focuses on product iteration, supply-chain integration, rapid delivery, and localized service capabilities. On goods shipped: goods shipped increased by approximately RMB 800 million from the beginning of the period, with the increase mainly from the data-computing-power service business, and the company expects a considerable portion to complete acceptance and revenue carryover within the year. On orders: the RMB 1.8 billion in new effective liquid-cooling-related orders mentioned in the interim report refers to effective orders with clear delivery demand (including prepaid orders and some large-customer orders paid after receipt of goods).

4.3 Shenzhen Stock Exchange Refinancing (Convertible Bond) Inquiry Letter

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued an inquiry letter to Shenling Environment regarding its refinancing matter, requiring the company to explain the rationality of the capacity plan for the liquid-cooling temperature-control project, demonstrate the path for absorbing new capacity based on the industry landscape and on-hand orders, explain the reasons for the decline in gross margin, and verify the prudence of the benefit calculations. Limitation: this item was seen only in the first paragraph of a single aggregation page, and the original inquiry letter number and the company's reply announcement text were not retrieved; verification should be made against the original text on cninfo.

4.4 Patent Grants (Concentrated Grants in September 2026)

Granted 2026-09-01: "Method and System for Producing Hot Water from Large-Temperature-Difference Waste Heat Recovery in Data Centers" (application no. CN202511978731.8). Granted 2026-09-08: "Filter Clogging Monitoring Method, System, Device and Storage Medium" (application no. CN202511688823.2). Granted 2026-09-01: "An Integrated Cold-Storage Heat-Storage Multi-Mode Fresh-Air Air Conditioner and Its Control Method" (application no. CN202310419080.3). The company said it has obtained 21 new patent grants so far this year, flat versus the same period last year; combined with the 2026 interim report, H1 R&D investment was RMB 103 million, up 32.42% year on year. Source is Securities Star citing Tianyancha data; the data are third-party platform statistics, not directly disclosed by the company.

4.5 2025 Annual Earnings Pre-Announcement (Profit Increase)

The company disclosed its 2025 annual earnings pre-announcement: expected net profit attributable to parent of RMB 205–246 million, up 77.39%–112.87% year on year; expected non-recurring net profit of RMB 200–240 million, up 77.87%–113.44% year on year. The headline date shows 01-26, i.e., disclosure around January 26, 2026. Cross-confirmation: the official 2025 full-year annual report (disclosed 2026-04-26) showed revenue of RMB 4.2092 billion and net profit of RMB 216.78 million, within the pre-announcement range, so the pre-announcement is credible.

4.6 2025 Annual Equity Distribution (Dividend)

Implementation of the 2025 profit distribution plan: cash dividend of RMB 2.50 per 10 shares (tax inclusive); record date June 1, 2026; ex-rights and ex-dividend date June 2, 2026; payment date June 2, 2026 (announcement time approximately 2026-05-26). Limitation: this is a version reposted by an overseas financial website, and the original Chinese equity distribution implementation announcement was not directly checked.

4.7 Shareholder/Equity Change Developments

Termination of 5% share transfer: on December 19, 2024, Zhang Yu agreed to acquire 5% of Shenling Environment from Cui Yingqi and Guangdong Shenling Investment Co., Ltd., for consideration of approximately RMB 320 million, at a cash consideration of RMB 23.904 per share; on May 14, 2025, the acquisition was cancelled, and the two parties reached a refund (return of transfer payment) agreement. Top ten circulating shareholders (data date 2026-06-30): Guangdong Shenling Investment Co., Ltd. 15.73%; Lingshui Xinzhongcheng Venture Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) 8.05%; Cui Yingqi 6.82%; Lingshui Xinzhongxian Venture Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) 6.33%; Su Cuixia 4.15%; Tan Bingwen 3.26%; Liu Ying 1.78%; Hao Lei 1.78%; Zhang Xin 1.58%; Huang Haokang 1.20%.

4.8 Other Developments

Main fund flow (2026-09-10): main funds net sold RMB 246 million. Full acquisition of subsidiary: an overseas media headline said Shenling Environment "acquired all equity of a (sub)sidiary, and the stock fell 4%," source was the French version of Zonebourse. Limitation: this item was seen only in a single overseas media headline, with no specific date, target name, or amount, and could not be cross-verified, so it should be accepted cautiously. Sector linkage (mentioned by media): in the liquid-cooling concept sector, Sinomatech, Zhongyuantong, DunAn Environment, Haoresai, and Jitai Shares hit the limit up, Gaolan Shares rose more than 8%, and Jindi Shares, Shenling Environment, Binglun Environment, and others were among the top gainers.

4.9 Data Consistency and Uncertainty Notes

1. Timing judgment: all information is based on content retrievable in mid-September 2026; announcement-type information is latest as of 2026-09-11. New announcements may not be included subsequently. 2. Single-source risk: the Shenzhen Stock Exchange refinancing inquiry letter and the full acquisition of a subsidiary both appear only in a single aggregation/overseas source, lack original numbering, and must be verified against the original text on cninfo; equity distribution data come from an overseas repost (S&P Capital IQ), and the original Chinese announcement was not checked. 3. Share price basis differences: overseas pages have given snapshots of the stock at different prices (the French page once showed RMB 35.61, possibly an old snapshot from May 2025; another MarketScreener page showed approximately RMB 101.02), indicating that cited pages have different cache times, and this section does not draw conclusions based on them; if a share price is needed, please verify separately with a real-time quote source. 4. Items with relatively strong cross-confirmation: equity incentive (consistent across multiple sources: announcement nos. 2026-055/056, 2.85 million shares, RMB 43.55/share, 219 incentive recipients); 2025 earnings pre-increase (consistent with the actual 2025 annual report figures). 5. These minutes cover only the "recent news and announcements" angle and do not include valuation, institutional ratings, or technical analysis.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the close on 2026-09-11, Shenling Environment closed at RMB 96.00, down 1.31%, below MA5 (100.38), MA10 (103.87), and MA20 (100.30), with short- and medium-term moving averages in the early stage of a bearish alignment; MACD formed a death cross above the zero axis on September 10, a high-level pullback rather than a break below the zero axis; RSI is directionally weak but no specific value can be cited. The price has retreated for 6 consecutive trading days from the intraday high of RMB 116.00 on September 3 to close at RMB 96.00 on September 11, a drawdown of approximately 17.2% from the high (approximately −14.8% over 6 trading days from the September 3 close); volume shrank day by day from 28.90 million shares on September 3 to 13.58 million shares on September 11, only approximately 71% of the 65-day average volume (19.18M shares), with volume ratio 0.78, showing shrinking-volume阴 decline characteristics. On the funding side, over the past 5 trading days, main funds recorded a total net outflow of approximately RMB 788 million, and the margin balance fell for 3 consecutive days to RMB 1.079 billion, with main-force net outflow and retail net inflow coexisting. In terms of chip structure, the current price is below the average holding cost (approximately RMB 99.89), and the RMB 100~108 area above is a dense trapped zone; a rebound into that area will face unwinding selling pressure. Overall, technically the stock is in a shrinking-volume consolidation stage after a high-level pullback, with short-term signs of stabilization but unconfirmed, and direction still constrained by bearish moving-average alignment and overhead trapped positions; subsequent evolution depends on whether volume can recover and on the broader market and industry environment.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: the following content is only a short-term subjective scenario deduction based on historical prices, technical indicators, and funding data. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any buy or sell instruction.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high weight, approximately 60% (subjective judgment)): the price repeatedly fluctuates within the RMB 94.3~101.0 range: downside is supported by the 9/11 long lower-shadow low of RMB 91.80 and the MA120 reference band, while upside is constrained by the MA5/MA20 glue area and the RMB 100.78 main-force cost band. Trigger conditions are turnover maintaining or fluctuating slightly in the RMB 1.2–1.6 billion range, volume ratio still below 1, no new catalyst news, and main-force net outflow narrowing but not turning into sustained net inflow. This scenario corresponds to a state of undetermined direction after shrinking volume.
• Weaker downside (medium weight (subjective judgment)): if turnover cannot recover and main funds continue net outflow (watch whether single-day main-force net outflow expands again to around RMB 200 million), and the price effectively breaks below the first support at RMB 94.3, then it may probe the strong support area of RMB 87.9~89.4. In this scenario, key attention should be paid to whether that strong support is broken — if broken, downside space opens to the Bollinger lower band (RMB 83.87 or approximately RMB 85.7 basis). The weekly bearish pattern (Engulfing Bearish) and the consecutive decline in margin balance are potential sources of pressure.
• Rebound and strengthening (relatively low weight (subjective judgment)): if the industry or broader market environment warms, new catalyst news appears, and single-day turnover clearly expands (for example, recovering above RMB 1.6 billion with volume ratio returning above 1), and the price effectively stands above RMB 101.0 and recovers the MA5/MA20 glue area, then it may test MA10 (RMB 103.87) and the chip resistance area around RMB 105.47; however, that area is a dense trapped zone and requires sustained volume expansion to digest unwinding selling pressure. This is a conditional path, not the base-case expectation.

③ Funding and Liquidity Background

In terms of trading liquidity, circulating market capitalization is RMB 27.151 billion, 2026-09-11 turnover was RMB 1.283 billion, and turnover rate was 4.80%; over the past two weeks, daily turnover was roughly in the RMB 1.2–1.6 billion range, with the September 3 peak day corresponding to approximately RMB 3.2 billion, and September 11 already down to RMB 1.283 billion; the 65-day average volume is 19.18M shares, while September 11 was 13.58M shares, clearly below normal. On the order book, at the September 11 close, the five levels from sell one to sell five totaled less than 500 lots, and the five levels from buy one to buy five totaled less than 300 lots, with relatively thin quotes; a single large order in or out would amplify the price impact, which for a small- and mid-cap growth stock is a state of acceptable liquidity but marginal weakening. In terms of shareholder structure and concentration (data as of 2026-06-30, disclosure date approximately 2026-08-28/29, lagging by approximately 2.5 months, and the structure may already have changed during the period): total number of shareholders was 39,911, up 54.18% from 25,886 as of 2026-03-31, with average holdings per household of 9,378 shares; East Money rated chip concentration as "relatively dispersed" (previous period was "relatively concentrated"), indicating that during the Q2 2026 rally, chips shifted from concentrated to dispersed and retail investors entered in large numbers. The top ten shareholders totaled 61.72% (down from 63.44% as of 2026-03-31), and the top ten circulating shareholders totaled 50.68%. In terms of the nature of the shareholder structure, the top ten are mainly actual controllers Cui Yingqi and Cui Zihua (combined 20.63%) and their family members and employee/related holding platforms (Guangdong Shenling Investment 11.89%, Lingshui Xinzhongcheng Venture Capital 6.08%, Lingshui Xinzhongxian Venture Capital 4.78%, Tan Bingwen 9.88%, Su Cuixia 3.14%, Ou Zhaoming 1.46%, etc.), all natural persons/PE-type platforms; in terms of institutional holdings (2026-06-30, East Money fund holdings statistical basis), 278 funds held a total of 22,175,637 shares, accounting for 5.92% of total share capital and 7.84% of circulating shares, while social security, QFII, brokerages, insurance, and trusts all showed "--". Note: the Investing.com shareholder page shows social security fund holdings of 0.54% (2.022 million shares), contradicting East Money's "social security --" conclusion; it is a single source without cross-verification and is not recommended for use. Combined with the above structure, against the background of relatively thin order-book quotes and relatively dispersed chips, short-term prices are highly sensitive to fund inflows and outflows.

Volume confirmation signal: if single-day turnover continues to expand above RMB 1.6 billion (clearly higher than RMB 1.283 billion on September 11 and close to the upper edge of the past two-week range) and the volume ratio returns above 1, this can be regarded as a reference signal that short-term funds are re-entering; conversely, if turnover continues below RMB 1.2 billion and the volume ratio remains below 1, the shrinking-volume consolidation pattern is likely to continue.

④ Key Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operating Instructions)

• Watch whether the RMB 100.0~101.0 resistance band (MA5/MA20 glue area and near the 20-day main-force cost of RMB 100.78) can be effectively recovered and held — this is a key reference level for alleviating the short-term bearish alignment.
• Watch the absorption situation at the first support of RMB 94.3~96.0 and strong support of RMB 87.9~89.4; if strong support is effectively broken, the downside reference is the Bollinger lower band at RMB 83.87 (external basis) or approximately RMB 85.7 (self-calculated basis).
• Track changes in single-day turnover and volume ratio: expansion above RMB 1.6 billion and a volume ratio rebound above 1 are reference signals for funds re-entering; continued levels below RMB 1.2 billion indicate the shrinking-volume pattern continues.
• Track marginal changes in main funds and margin balance (over the past 5 trading days, main funds recorded a total net outflow of approximately RMB 788 million, and the margin balance fell for 3 consecutive days to RMB 1.079 billion), as well as whether there is new catalyst news or changes in the industry/broader market environment.
• The above are all observation ideas based on historical data and public information, not operating instructions, and do not constitute buy, sell, or hold recommendations.

The above scenario deduction is based on 2026-09-11 closing data and historical price and technical-indicator calculations (of which the external-source Bollinger Band data date is 2026-09-09, MA60/MA120 source data date is 2026-09-09, chip and shareholder-structure data are as of 2026-06-30, margin-trading data are as of 2026-09-10, and northbound holdings data are as of 2026-06-30). Short-term stock prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news flow, funding conditions, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations. The scenario weights are subjective heuristic judgments based on the current technical and funding landscape rather than statistical probabilities, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments in light of the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The industry in which the company operates is special-purpose air conditioning and temperature-control equipment, with the core downstream drivers being explosive demand for liquid-cooling temperature control in computing-power data centers and volume ramp-up in energy scenarios such as new power/energy storage. The minutes show that in 2025 the company's data-service industry revenue was RMB 2.343 billion (+51.42%), industrial industry revenue was RMB 1.137 billion (+86.11%), of which power and energy business was approximately +234% year on year; the listing sponsor letter disclosed that competition in the data-service industry has intensified and brands have strong bargaining power, with equipment gross margin space continuously compressed, and the industry presents a pattern in which high demand growth coexists with price competition.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The liquid-cooling temperature-control track has a dense group of manufacturers. Peer companies appearing in third-party rankings/reviews cited in the minutes include Envicool, Gaolan Shares, Yimikang, Tongfei Shares, and Jialitu.
• Third-party materials cited in the minutes say Envicool is one of only two companies globally mastering both cold-plate and immersion liquid-cooling technologies, with market share above 35%, serving leading customers such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Huawei, and having cumulatively delivered more than 1.2GW of liquid-cooling projects; the above specific data come from third-party compiled content such as Toutiao, with a single source and no cross-verification, and the latest annual report/authoritative basis should prevail.
• On industry data, the minutes cite third-party information saying the global liquid-cooling market surged 96% in 2024, with cold-plate technology leading; this is likewise a single source and has not been cross-verified.
• The minutes do not provide Shenling Environment's specific market share value in the liquid-cooling temperature-control industry; the company's market share data is missing.

6.3 Main Competitors

Compared with peers such as Envicool, which third-party materials call the leader in liquid-cooling temperature control, Shenling Environment's revenue scale and growth in the data-service field are both relatively high (2025 data-service revenue RMB 2.343 billion, +51.42% year on year), but its market share in the liquid-cooling temperature-control industry is not disclosed in the minutes, making quantitative share comparison impossible; according to the listing sponsor letter, competition in the data-service industry has intensified and brands have strong bargaining power, putting pressure on the company's equipment gross margin, with 2025 comprehensive gross margin of 23.99% and net margin of 5.35%, showing the common characteristic of relatively thin margins among midstream temperature-control equipment makers. Compared with peers, Shenling Environment's differentiated highlights include an increased share of solutions and services in revenue structure (21.97% in 2025, gross margin 31.63%) and high growth in industrial energy business (power and energy approximately +234% year on year), but the minutes do not provide a unified financial basis for each peer, and horizontal quantitative comparison data is missing.

7. Risk Warnings

• Performance realization risk: 2026H1 net profit attributable to parent was RMB 54.0454 million, -64.07% year on year, and non-recurring net profit was RMB 46.2422 million, -68.95% year on year, while the consensus for 2026E net profit attributable to parent is approximately RMB 425–442 million, implying that approximately RMB 385 million of profit carryover must be completed in the second half. If acceptance and carryover of goods shipped (up approximately RMB 800 million from the beginning of the period) and the RMB 1.8 billion in new liquid-cooling orders continue to be delayed, the full-year forecast faces downward revision risk.
• Risk of continued gross margin decline: the company's 2026H1 comprehensive gross margin has fallen to approximately 19.65%. In 2025, the industrial segment gross margin was 23.92%, down 7.38pct year on year. The sponsor letter disclosed a historical equipment sales gross margin sequence of 26.59%→25.21%→22.93%→22.02%, declining year by year, and brands in the data-service industry have strong bargaining power with intensifying competition. If the share of high-gross-margin solutions and services (2025 gross margin 31.63%) cannot continue to rise, the company's overall profit space may continue to be compressed.
• Expense and working-capital pressure: 2026H1 selling expenses increased 38.83% year on year, and R&D investment was RMB 103 million, up 32.42% year on year; expenses brought by overseas expansion and liquid-cooling new-product R&D show rigid growth; at the end of 2026Q1, inventory was RMB 1.29 billion (+48.7%) and contract liabilities were RMB 430 million (+56.5%); 2026H1 asset-liability ratio was 66.58%, and the large increase in goods shipped tied up working capital. In addition, historically disclosed 2015–2017 overdue accounts receivable were RMB 157 million, RMB 150 million, and RMB 181 million, respectively, accounting for 31.76%, 27.72%, and 31.82% of accounts receivable balances (historical basis, not the latest data), but the minutes do not provide the latest working-capital indicators such as accounts receivable turnover days since 2025, and the latest collection-quality data is missing.
• Valuation and forecast divergence risk: the current price of RMB 96.00 corresponds to dynamic PE 332.42x, PE(TTM) approximately 298.41x, PB 13.17x, and P/S approximately 9.51x, and the valuation already reflects high growth expectations to a considerable extent; 2027E net profit attributable to parent forecasts range from Guohai Securities' RMB 612 million to Sinolink Securities' RMB 2.20 billion, a span of nearly 4x. Excluding the Sinolink Securities outlier, most institutions are concentrated at RMB 600–730 million. If actual performance lands at the lower end of the range, valuation digestion pressure is relatively high; under the Tonghuashun basis, the 2026 average target price of RMB 201.95 is contributed by very few brokerages, and Guotai Haitong's target price appears in two versions, RMB 201.95 and RMB 144.07, in different reposted sources and has not been verified, so its reference value is limited.
• Customer and order concentration information missing risk: the concept tags in the minutes show that the company's downstream involves leading manufacturers such as Huawei, Tencent, and Baidu, and the RMB 1.8 billion in new effective liquid-cooling orders also includes some large-customer orders paid after receipt of goods, but the combined share of the top five customers and upstream supplier concentration are not disclosed, making it impossible to quantitatively assess dependence on a single customer or single order; if major customers' capex pace or acceptance policies change, it could have a relatively large impact on revenue recognition.
• Short-term technical and funding pressure: as of the close on 2026-09-11 at RMB 96.00, the stock is below MA5 (100.38), MA10 (103.87), and MA20 (100.30), and MACD formed a death cross above the zero axis on September 10; over the past 5 trading days, main funds recorded a total net outflow of approximately RMB 788 million, the margin balance fell for 3 consecutive days to RMB 1.079 billion, turnover fell from approximately RMB 3.2 billion on September 3 to RMB 1.283 billion on September 11, and volume ratio was 0.78; the current price is below the average holding cost of approximately RMB 99.89, and the RMB 100~108 area is a dense trapped zone. If a volume breakout above RMB 101.0 fails and the price breaks below the first support at RMB 94.3, short-term weakness may further probe the strong support area of RMB 87.9~89.4.
• Corporate governance and historical issue background: during the 2019 IPO period, media reported that actual controller Cui Yingqi had a past of "bribing to obtain land" (reposted by Sina Finance, Phoenix Finance, and many others, report timing 2019-06); this information is a non-latest background note, but it is a historical concern at the corporate governance level; in addition, the December 2024 transaction in which Zhang Yu planned to acquire 5% of shares for approximately RMB 320 million at RMB 23.904 per share was cancelled on May 14, 2025, with a refund agreement reached, and the follow-up arrangements for the related equity change matter are not further disclosed in the minutes.
• Refinancing and capacity absorption uncertainty: the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued an inquiry letter on the refinancing matter, requiring the company to explain the rationality of the capacity plan for the liquid-cooling temperature-control project, demonstrate the path for absorbing new capacity based on the industry landscape and on-hand orders, explain the reasons for the gross margin decline, and verify the prudence of the benefit calculations; the reply content and review results of this inquiry matter may affect the pace of the company's liquid-cooling capacity expansion. Note that this information is seen only in the first paragraph of a single aggregation page, and the original inquiry letter number and the company's reply announcement text were not retrieved; verification must be made against the original text on cninfo. At the same time, the minutes do not provide the company's specific market share value in the liquid-cooling temperature-control industry; market share data is missing, making quantitative share comparison with peers impossible.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

In terms of growth logic, Shenling Environment's core highlights lie in the two main lines of data services (liquid-cooling temperature control) and industrial energy: 2025 data-service revenue of RMB 2.343 billion, +51.42% year on year, industrial revenue of RMB 1.137 billion, +86.11% year on year (of which power and energy business approximately +234% year on year), combined with structural optimization as the revenue share of solutions and services rose to 21.97% with a gross margin of 31.63%, together supporting the increase in 2025 comprehensive gross margin to 23.99% and net margin to 5.35%. The RMB 1.8 billion in new effective liquid-cooling-related orders, goods shipped up approximately RMB 800 million from the beginning of the period, and 2026Q1 contract liabilities +56.5% versus end-2025 are the main variables for judging the subsequent pace of revenue carryover. Institutional consensus for 2026E revenue is approximately RMB 5.122–6.080 billion, and consensus net profit attributable to parent is approximately RMB 425–442 million (approximately +104% year on year), corresponding to dynamic PE of around 80x, but it should be noted that this consensus is based on 2026H1 net profit of only RMB 54 million.

The core of risk and uncertainty lies in the timing and magnitude of performance realization: 2026H1 net profit attributable to parent was -64.07% year on year, while the full-year institutional forecast implies net profit of approximately RMB 440 million, meaning that approximately RMB 385 million, more than 7x the first-half level, must be carried over in the second half, implying relatively high execution risk. At the same time, the company's business is constrained by strong bargaining power of downstream brands and intensifying industry competition; in 2025 the industrial segment gross margin had already fallen 7.38pct year on year, and 2026H1 comprehensive gross margin fell further to approximately 19.65%; overseas expansion and liquid-cooling new-product R&D bring rigid expense growth; asset-liability ratio of 66.58% and inventory of RMB 1.29 billion (+48.7%) tie up working capital. 2027E earnings forecasts diverge greatly (net profit attributable to parent from RMB 612 million to RMB 2.20 billion, a span of nearly 4x, with Sinolink Securities' RMB 2.20 billion a clear outlier and most institutions concentrated at RMB 600–730 million); when using the forecasts, outliers must be excluded and attention paid to the difference in share capital basis after the 2025 annual 4-for-10 conversion.

At the valuation level, the current price of RMB 96.00 corresponds to dynamic PE 332.42x, PE(TTM) approximately 298.41x, PB 13.17x, and P/S approximately 9.51x, which already reflects to a large extent expectations for future order carryover and profit release; under the Tonghuashun basis, the 2026 average target price of RMB 201.95 is actually contributed by very few brokerages (especially Guotai Haitong, whose target price appears in two versions, RMB 201.95 and RMB 144.07, in different reposted sources and has not been verified), not a multi-institution consensus, and must be viewed cautiously. Technically, the RMB 100.0~101.0 area is the MA5/MA20 glue area and the 20-day main-force cost (RMB 100.78); RMB 94.3~96.0 is the first support and RMB 87.9~89.4 is strong support. Whether volume can recover above RMB 1.6 billion is a reference signal for observing whether short-term funds re-enter. None of the above constitutes buy or sell advice.

Data Sources

• Shenling Environment (301018)_Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Trend Chart_News_Stock Reviews_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• In-depthCompanyShenling Environment (301018): Rapid first-half performance growth, active liquid-cooling layout opens growth space
• What does Shenling Environment (301018) do
• Shenling Environment: H1 2023 net profit RMB 86.9211 million, down 15.56% year on year
• Guangdong Shenling Environmental System Co Ltd Class A (301018)