Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (600031)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Construction Machinery　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　As of the September 11, 2026 close (Friday); comparative data for the previous trading day are based on the September 9, 2026 close. Sources: East Money, CLS.cn, Securities Times e Company, Jiufang Intelligent Investment, Sina Finance, etc.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Sany Heavy Industry continued to deliver relatively rapid revenue growth in the first half of 2026, but profit growth lagged revenue growth significantly: operating revenue was RMB 53.506 billion, up 19.49% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5.690 billion, up 9.13%; and non-recurring-item-adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.682 billion, down 13.45%. Profit was primarily dragged down by approximately RMB 2.104 billion in net foreign-exchange losses, compared with net foreign-exchange gains of RMB 669 million in the same period last year. Second-quarter revenue was RMB 29.359 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.209 billion, up 24.39% and 16.93% year on year, respectively, indicating sequential improvement in revenue and attributable profit, although adjusted profit still declined 11.22% year on year.

The company’s growth structure remains centered on overseas operations and product upgrades. International principal-business revenue in 1H26 was RMB 32.040 billion, up 21.82% year on year, accounting for 61.33% of principal-business revenue; international gross margin was 32.50%, higher than the domestic principal-business gross margin. Revenue from excavating machinery, concrete machinery and piling machinery increased 21.77%, 21.25% and 63.11%, respectively. New-energy product revenue in 2025 was RMB 8.640 billion, up 115%. Overseas operations accounting for more than 60%, an improved product mix, and cost reductions and efficiency gains jointly drove approximately 41% growth in attributable net profit in 2025.

The company has competitive advantages including 15 consecutive years as the domestic unit-sales leader in excavating machinery and 15 consecutive years as the global leader in concrete machinery. Its upstream suppliers and downstream customers are also relatively dispersed. However, construction-machinery sales include financed sales such as installment loans and finance leases, meaning the company bears customer-credit and advance-funding risks. Long-term receivables, accounts receivable and loans and advances previously occupied a considerable amount of assets. Net cash flow from operating activities reached RMB 19.98 billion in 2025, a record high, indicating improved operating quality.

As of September 11, 2026, the A-share closing price was RMB 19.78, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 181.877 billion, a turnover ratio of 0.38% and trading value of RMB 632 million, representing a marked decline in activity from September 9. The share price was in the lower-middle part of its 52-week range of RMB 16.68–24.29. Depending on the profit measure used, the forward P/E was approximately 16x, TTM P/E approximately 20.5x and trailing P/E approximately 21.6x. Technically, short-term resistance was around RMB 20.2–20.5, while RMB 19.5–19.8 was a reference area for recent support.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Principal Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Excavating machinery: 2025 revenue of RMB 34.54 billion, accounting for 38.71% of principal business, with a gross margin of 34.24%; 1H26 revenue of RMB 21.306 billion (+21.77%); domestic unit-sales leader for 15 consecutive years
• Concrete machinery: 2025 revenue of RMB 15.74 billion, accounting for 17.64% of principal business, with a gross margin of 20.15%; 1H26 revenue of RMB 9.022 billion (+21.25%); global No. 1 brand, global leader for 15 consecutive years
• Cranes: 2025 revenue of RMB 15.56 billion, accounting for 17.44% of principal business, with a gross margin of 28.96%; 1H26 revenue of RMB 8.446 billion (+8.22%); large-tonnage cranes are the leading products, and the company is the No. 1 domestic brand
• Road machinery: 2025 revenue of RMB 3.757 billion, accounting for 4.21% of principal business, with a gross margin of 28.67%; 1H26 revenue of RMB 2.278 billion; No. 1 domestic brand in complete road-machinery equipment
• Piling machinery: 2025 revenue of RMB 2.820 billion, accounting for 3.16% of principal business, with a gross margin of 32.88%; 1H26 revenue of RMB 2.187 billion; No. 1 domestic market share in rotary drilling rigs
• Other and other (supplementary): approximately RMB 16.81 billion in total in 2025, including RMB 1.961 billion from other (supplementary), with a gross margin of 20.32%
• By region: 2025 international principal-business revenue was RMB 55.86 billion (62.60% of principal business; gross margin 31.64%), while domestic revenue was RMB 31.41 billion (35.21%; gross margin 20.69%); Asia-Pacific RMB 23.89 billion (+16.17%)/Europe RMB 12.5 billion (+1.5%)/Americas RMB 11.16 billion (+8.52%)/Africa RMB 8.31 billion (+55.29%); 1H26 international principal-business revenue was RMB 32.040 billion, accounting for 61.33% of principal business

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost/Profit Structure

Sany Heavy Industry engages in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of construction machinery, including concrete machinery, excavating machinery, cranes, piling machinery and road machinery. It operates in the complete-machine manufacturing segment of the special-purpose equipment manufacturing industry. Upstream purchases include automobile chassis, engines, steel, hydraulic pumps, main oil pumps, transfer cases, various hydraulic valves, slewing bearings and other components and raw materials. Downstream customers are highly dispersed end-user construction companies and individual machine owners in infrastructure, real estate, mining, agricultural irrigation and water conservancy.

The company is characterized by “dispersed upstream suppliers, price-taking status for bulk raw materials, and highly dispersed downstream customers with self-borne credit and advance-funding exposure.” Gross-margin improvement is driven primarily by a higher overseas mix, product upgrades, and in-house production of core components for cost reduction.

• Procurement categories explicitly listed in company annual reports: automobile chassis, engines, steel, hydraulic pumps, main oil pumps, transfer cases, various hydraulic valves and slewing bearings (consistent in the 2025 and 2023 annual reports).
• Cost structure: the 2023 annual report’s cost analysis indicated that raw materials accounted for 84.85% of industry costs, labor 4.97%, depreciation and amortization 3.16%, and other costs 7.02%.
• Supplier concentration: purchases from the top five suppliers were RMB 4.020 billion in 2023, or 10.99% of annual purchases. No single supplier accounted for more than 50%; concentration was moderate (10.90% in 2019), indicating dispersed suppliers and some bargaining power for the company.
• Bargaining-power structure: steel is a commodity and the company is a price taker. Chassis, engines and high-end hydraulic components historically depended to some extent on imports. Older annual reports referred to Isuzu, Mercedes-Benz, Deutz and Rexroth brands and stated that “externally purchased components accounted for more than 70%.” The company is now increasing self-manufacturing through Sote Transmission (self-produced reducers, slewing bearings, gearboxes, axles, hydraulic multi-way valves and slewing motors), Loudi Zhongxing Hydraulic Components (self-produced hydraulic cylinders), and Hunan Deutz Power (an associate providing engines).
• Data gaps and risk labels: detailed percentages of various raw materials in total costs were found only for 2019—chassis 5.19%, motors/engines 9.37%, hydraulic reducers/hydraulic pumps 5.75%, steel 11.34%, product bodies and assemblies 8.08%, and other 60.27%—and in an earlier 2011 medium-term note prospectus, which indicated that chassis and engines together accounted for approximately 61%. These figures are outdated, use different definitions and were not cross-verified against the latest annual report. They should not be used as the current cost structure. The only recent reliable indication is that raw materials account for approximately 85%.
• Highly dispersed customers: sales to the top five customers accounted for 7.11% in 2022 (RMB 5.692 billion), 4.91% in 2023 (RMB 3.595 billion), and 4.79% in 2025 (RMB 4.294 billion). The 2025 figure came from a relatively single source (Chaguwang) and was not cross-verified; the latest annual report should prevail.
• End customers cover infrastructure (railways, highways, subways, hydropower stations and water conservancy), real estate, mining and agricultural irrigation. Cranes are also used in power, steel, bridges, shipbuilding and petrochemicals. Customers are dispersed small and medium-sized construction companies and individual machine owners.
• Sales model: direct sales + distributors + financed sales (installment loans and finance leases). The company’s structural weakness is not “customer price pressure” but self-borne credit risk. The 2023 annual report disclosed RMB 2.19 billion of installment-loan guarantees, RMB 2.601 billion of finance-lease guarantees and RMB 14.161 billion of third-party finance-lease guarantees. The company advanced RMB 2.413 billion in overdue installment-loan and finance-lease payments for customers; these amounts were transferred to accounts receivable and impairment provisions were recognized. This is the construction-machinery industry’s distinctive “sales equal advance funding” dynamic, unlike annual price-reduction clauses in auto components.
• Working capital is materially occupied by downstream customers: at end-2023, accounts receivable totaled RMB 27.838 billion (with bad-debt provisions of RMB 3.673 billion), long-term receivables were RMB 21.258 billion, and loans and advances were RMB 7.101 billion. The three items together accounted for 34.23% of total assets at end-2023. Accounts payable were RMB 17.618 billion, far below the combined total of accounts receivable, long-term receivables and loans and advances, which exceeded RMB 56 billion. Accounts-receivable turnover declined from 4.59x in 2020 and 5.16x in 2021 to 3.58x in 2022 (-30.52%); 2022 accounts receivable increased 27.3% from the beginning of the year while revenue fell 24.59%. Signs of improvement include 2024 receivables exposure of RMB 51.31 billion, down RMB 1.1 billion year on year, inventory of RMB 19.95 billion, and declines in receivable and inventory turnover days. The 2023 sales collection rate was 99.38%; operating cash flow reached successive highs, increasing from RMB 14.814 billion in 2024 to RMB 19.98 billion in 2025.
• Customer concentration is extremely low and declining: top-five customer revenue accounted for 7.11% in 2022, 4.91% in 2023 (2022/2023 annual reports), and 4.79% in 2025 (Chaguwang; single source and not cross-verified). Supplier concentration was also low: the top five suppliers accounted for 10.99% of purchases in 2023 versus 10.90% in 2019, with no single supplier above 50%. Overall, both upstream and downstream are dispersed, but substantial working capital is occupied by downstream customers.

Sany Heavy Industry is positioned in the center-right of the smile curve, in the “complete-machine manufacturing + global brand/service” segment. Upstream, it is a price taker for steel and other bulk commodities and historically depended heavily on imported high-end hydraulic components and engines, although some are now manufactured internally. Downstream, it serves highly dispersed end customers while bearing installment-loan and finance-lease credit exposure. Gross-margin improvement does not stem from strong price pressure on suppliers or customers, but from three endogenous paths: ① a higher overseas mix (overseas gross margin of approximately 31% versus domestic approximately 21%); ② product upgrades, including large excavators, large-tonnage cranes and electrified products; and ③ higher self-manufacturing rates for core components and cost and efficiency improvements. The company is therefore neither a typical high-margin upstream-resource business nor a downstream brand with strong pricing power, but a midstream leader driven by scale, globalization and product mix.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

1H26 data come from the 2026 interim report disclosed on August 30/31, 2026, using operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.682 billion, down 13.45% year on year; net operating cash flow was RMB 9.768 billion, down 3.62%; basic EPS was RMB 0.6217; weighted-average ROE was 6.16%; and comprehensive gross margin was 27.78%. Sources differ regarding 1H26 revenue: most support RMB 53.506 billion/+19.49%, while Founder Securities and The Paper reported RMB 53.306 billion/+19.70%, probably a transcription error. The company’s interim report should prevail. 2025 annual-report data came from the 2025 annual report disclosed around March 30, 2026. The company reported revenue growth of 14.4% and attributable net-profit growth of 41.2%. Another 2025 revenue figure of RMB 89.231 billion appears in the SSE visualized financial report and gubit, approximately RMB 470 million below operating revenue of RMB 89.700 billion; the company has not directly explained the difference. 2024 and 2023 figures use CMBIGM/Investing historical bases, and the minutes did not provide year-on-year growth. 1H26 performance was materially affected by approximately RMB 2.104 billion of foreign-exchange losses, versus foreign-exchange gains of RMB 669 million in the prior-year period, which was the main reason revenue grew 19.5% while attributable profit rose only 9.1% and adjusted profit fell 13.45%.

In 1H26, operating revenue was RMB 53.506 billion, up 19.49% year on year. International principal-business revenue was RMB 32.040 billion, up 21.82%, accounting for 61.33%; overseas revenue therefore exceeded 60%. By product, piling machinery (+63.11%), excavating machinery (+21.77%) and concrete machinery (+21.25%) grew rapidly, while cranes (+8.22%) and road machinery (+5.52%) were relatively stable. Attributable net profit rose only 9.13% to RMB 5.690 billion, while adjusted attributable net profit fell 13.45% to RMB 4.682 billion, mainly due to the approximately RMB 2.104 billion foreign-exchange loss in 1H26, compared with a gain of RMB 669 million in the same period last year. Yangtze Securities and China Galaxy Securities both highlighted this factor.

Comprehensive gross margin was 27.78% (+0.35ppt), principal-business gross margin was 27.93% (+0.36ppt), and international principal-business gross margin was 32.50% (+1.32ppt). Attributable net margin was approximately 10.7%, down approximately 1ppt year on year, and weighted-average ROE was 6.16%. Second-quarter revenue was RMB 29.359 billion, up 24.39% year on year and 21.59% sequentially; attributable net profit was RMB 3.209 billion, up 16.93% year on year and 29.38% sequentially; adjusted attributable net profit was RMB 2.669 billion, down 11.22% year on year and up 32.57% sequentially.

For 2025, operating revenue was RMB 89.700 billion, up 14.44%, and attributable net profit was RMB 8.408 billion, up 40.71%. Gross margin was 27.54% (+1.10ppt), net margin 9.51% (+1.68ppt), net operating cash flow RMB 19.975 billion (+34.84%; described by the company as a record high), overseas revenue RMB 55.856 billion (+15.14%; 62.27% of total), and new-energy product revenue RMB 8.640 billion (+115%). Overall, revenue growth remained rapid, overseas profitability and cash flow were strong, but profit was materially affected by non-operating factors such as foreign exchange. The attributable and adjusted profit bases provide materially different growth assessments and should both be presented.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Earnings forecasts use two types of estimates: multi-institution consensus estimates (gubit, MarketScreener, Simply Wall St, Koyfin, with 2026E attributable net profit of approximately RMB 10.1–10.8 billion) and individual brokerage forecasts (including Founder Securities’ September 2, 2026 recommendation; Yangtze Securities’ September 11, 2026 Buy rating; Zheshang Securities’ June 6, 2026 Buy rating; Soochow Securities’ April 30, 2026 Buy rating; China Merchants Securities’ April 30, 2026 Buy rating; and Shenwan Hongyuan’s April 15, 2026 Buy rating). CMBIGM’s figures came from an old December 2025 report, forecasting FY25E–27E revenue of RMB 91.13/102.81/113.00 billion, adjusted net profit of RMB 8.662/10.322/11.647 billion and EPS of RMB 0.98/1.12/1.27, and are less timely. Overseas platforms differ slightly: Simply Wall St forecasts EPS growth of 22.2% per year, revenue growth of 12.0% per year and ROE of approximately 14.3% over the next three years. 2026E attributable net profit implies growth of approximately 21%–28% from RMB 8.408 billion in 2025, but 1H26 attributable profit grew only 9.1% due to foreign-exchange losses. Second-half acceleration is therefore required to meet forecasts, representing the main uncertainty.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

Valuation based on East Money’s industry comparison page and the 2026 interim report: 2025A P/E 21.63x / TTM 20.47x / 2026E 17.33x / 2027E 13.42x / 2028E 11.13x. Industry-average 2026E and 2027E P/E were approximately 17.31x and 13.79x, respectively. The company was broadly in line with the industry average and slightly above the median. PEG was 0.34 versus an industry average of 0.77 and median of 0.39. 2025A and TTM price-to-sales ratios were 2.03x and 1.85x, respectively, versus an industry TTM average of 3.62x.

Growth indicators included 2025A EPS growth of 39.73%, TTM growth of 7.47%, 2026E growth of 15.98% and 2027E growth of 29.13%; revenue growth was 14.73% in 2025A, 17.27% on a TTM basis and 15.92% in 2026E. The broad target-price range of RMB 21–32 reflects significant dispersion. Some foreign institutions’ targets of RMB 28–29 were materially above domestic consensus, possibly due to H-share/Hong Kong-market pricing and timing differences. It is preferable to refer to a market-wide average of approximately RMB 26 and a range of RMB 21–32, while noting that the figures are compiled from multiple sources with inconsistent definitions. CMBIGM’s valuation anchor was a target P/E of 24x, equal to the 2017-present average of 20x plus 0.5 standard deviation, corresponding to an A-share target price of RMB 27.

Other valuation observations: on January 29, 2026, First Financial’s Yi Rating used a share price of RMB 22.25, total market capitalization of RMB 204.589 billion, TTM P/E of 24.82x and MRQ P/B of 2.79x; DDM valuation was RMB 164.6 billion (downside of 20%), dynamic valuation RMB 184.7 billion (downside of 9.7%), with a conclusion of fair valuation. AASTOCKS reported total market capitalization of approximately RMB 174.06 billion as of August 19, 2026. East Money’s interim-report basis showed total market capitalization of approximately RMB 181.9 billion and free-float market capitalization of approximately RMB 167.6 billion. Market-capitalization figures differ materially—RMB 174.0 billion/RMB 181.9 billion/RMB 204.6 billion—because they correspond to August 19, the interim-report rolling period and January 29, respectively. Changes in the share-capital structure after the Hong Kong listing also mean they cannot be compared directly. TTM P/E was broadly in the 20–25x range. Because of search limitations, the latest real-time share price, market capitalization and TTM P/E were not obtained. Official financial data are from periodic reports disclosed by the company on the SSE/CSRC disclosure platforms; much of the information cited in these minutes comes from secondary financial media and brokerage commentary and should be checked against the company’s original announcements.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 April 2025 Share Buyback Plan Completed

At the 25th meeting of the eighth Board of Directors on April 3, 2025, the company approved an A-share buyback through centralized bidding, with total funds of RMB 1–2 billion, a price ceiling of RMB 29.10 per share, and the shares intended for an employee stock-ownership plan. The plan was to last no more than 12 months. By the end of October 2025, the company had repurchased 72.6792 million shares, approximately 0.86% of A-share total shares, at a highest price of RMB 19.39 and lowest price of RMB 17.39, paying RMB 1.355 billion excluding fees and taxes. No repurchases were made in October 2025. The plan was completed on April 1, 2026, with 72.6792 million shares repurchased and actual consideration of RMB 1.355 billion, for the employee stock-ownership plan. The announcement stated that the shares represented 0.79% of total shares, whereas the October 2025 figure used 0.86% of A-share total shares; the denominators differ. Sources: the company’s November 4, 2025 buyback progress announcement and Securities Daily Online on June 12, 2026.

4.2 New 2026 Buyback Plan (Not Implemented as of End-August 2026)

On July 20, 2026, chairman Xiang Wenbo proposed a buyback of RMB 400–800 million, with a price ceiling of RMB 27.96 per share, or no more than 150% of the average share price over the 30 trading days before the Board resolution. The shares are intended for an A-share employee stock-ownership plan, with a 12-month term. The proposer stated that he had not traded company shares during the six months before the proposal and had no current plan to increase or reduce holdings during the buyback period.

On July 24, 2026, the 11th meeting of the ninth Board of Directors approved the proposal with eight votes in favor, zero against and zero abstentions. The first disclosure date was July 25, 2026, under announcement No. 2026-030. The estimated number of shares was 14.3062–28.6123 million, approximately 0.16%–0.31% of total shares. The shares are intended for an employee stock-ownership plan and will be cancelled if not transferred within 36 months. As of July 31, cumulative repurchases were zero shares and zero consideration. As of August 31, the company had still not repurchased A shares: cumulative shares, percentage and consideration were all zero (September 2, 2026 progress announcement, No. 2026-042). More than one month after launch on July 24, the plan had not resulted in actual purchases.

4.3 Disclosure of the 2026 Interim Report

The company disclosed its 2026 interim report on the evening of August 30/August 31, 2026: operating revenue of RMB 53.506 billion, up 19.49% year on year (the interim-report summary used “revenue” of RMB 53.306 billion, approximately RMB 200 million below “operating revenue”); attributable net profit of RMB 5.690 billion, up 9.13%; adjusted attributable net profit of RMB 4.682 billion, down 13.45%; net operating cash flow of RMB 9.768 billion, down 3.62%; basic EPS of RMB 0.6217; and weighted-average ROE of 6.16%, down 0.83ppt. Second-quarter revenue was RMB 29.359 billion, up 24.39%, and attributable net profit was RMB 3.209 billion, up 16.93%. As of June 30, 2026, total assets were RMB 181.153 billion and net assets attributable to shareholders were RMB 92.084 billion.

The decline in net margin and adjusted profit was mainly caused by foreign-exchange losses resulting from renminbi appreciation. According to Wind, as cited by Xiangcai Securities on September 4, 2026, 1H26 net foreign-exchange losses were approximately RMB 2.10 billion, compared with net gains of RMB 670 million in the prior-year period; financial expenses were RMB 1.65 billion versus negative RMB 857 million in the prior-year period, an increase of 292.58%. Overseas revenue was RMB 32.040 billion, up 21.82%, accounting for 61.33% of principal-business revenue. No profit-distribution proposal was made for the reporting period; no interim dividend was declared.

4.4 2025 Annual Report and Earnings Briefing

Operating revenue in 2025 was RMB 89.7 billion, up 14.4%; attributable net profit was RMB 8.41 billion, up 41.2%; net operating cash flow was RMB 19.98 billion, up 34.8%; total assets were RMB 173.3 billion and net assets attributable to shareholders RMB 88.33 billion. New-energy product sales were RMB 8.64 billion, up 115%. Source: the company’s earnings briefing page on the SSE Roadshow Center (roadshow.sseinfo.com/activityDetails/38055), representing company-disclosed figures.

4.5 Shareholder Developments and Corporate-Governance Announcements

On July 31, 2026, the company disclosed an announcement regarding the shareholdings of the top 10 shareholders and top 10 shareholders without selling restrictions before the buyback. The August 2026 interim report disclosed 465,600 shareholder accounts; the top 10 shareholders collectively held 4.496 billion shares, or 48.90% of total shares.

At the first extraordinary general meeting of 2026 on July 14, shareholders approved: ① adoption of the 2026 A-share employee stock-ownership plan; ② its administrative measures; ③ authorization for the Board to handle related matters; ④ the 2026 director compensation and assessment plan; and ⑤ termination of the engagement of the H-share financial-report auditor. On December 30, 2025, the fifth extraordinary general meeting of 2025 approved proposals including “cancellation of the company’s Supervisory Board and amendment of the Articles of Association,” representing a governance restructuring under which no Supervisory Board would be established. No recent announcements regarding concentrated purchases or sales by major shareholders, directors, supervisors or senior executives were identified. Chairman Xiang Wenbo explicitly stated that there was no plan to increase or reduce holdings during the buyback period. The special search for shareholder transactions was not complete and omissions may exist.

4.6 Dividend-Related Announcements

On July 9, 2026, the company disclosed the “Implementation Announcement for the 2025 Annual Equity Distribution” and a “Legal Opinion on Differential Dividends,” because shares held in the buyback account do not participate in distributions. The specific per-share dividend for 2025 could not be confirmed from the available summaries and should be verified against the original announcement.

4.7 H-Share Listing and Capital Operations

The company listed H shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2025 under stock code 06031. The company stated that the listing would “further broaden international financing channels” and represented a major capital operation in recent years. On July 3, 2026, it released an H-share monthly securities-change report for June. On June 24, 2026, it issued a notice of an extraordinary general meeting, including a proposal to terminate the engagement of the H-share financial-report auditor. Earlier background includes the 2012 acquisition of Putzmeister of Germany, the global No. 1 concrete-machinery brand. On October 30, 2025, the company announced an increase in expected 2025 recurring related-party transactions, including additional related-party purchases of RMB 578.39 million and related-party sales of RMB 251.27 million.

4.8 Uncertainties and Source Limitations

1) Current date: the latest announcement identified was dated September 2, 2026. Recent information primarily covers July–September 2026, and later developments may not be included. 2) Data definitions: the interim report uses both “operating revenue of RMB 53.506 billion” and “revenue of RMB 53.306 billion,” reflecting accounting-definition differences; the definition should be stated when cited. 3) Inconsistent buyback-share percentages: 0.86% in October 2025, based on A-share total shares, versus 0.79% in June 2026, based on total shares, reflecting different denominators and periods. The original announcements should prevail. 4) The per-share 2025 annual dividend and any more recent equity incentives, major contracts or regulatory inquiries could not be fully verified and should be checked against official SSE and HKEX announcements. 5) Institutional earnings forecasts in these minutes came from individual brokerage reports rather than multi-broker consensus and are not company-disclosed data.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the September 11, 2026 close, Sany Heavy Industry A shares (600031.SH) closed at RMB 19.78, down 1.15%, with a 2.05% intraday range, a turnover ratio of only 0.38% and trading value of RMB 632 million, materially below the RMB 1.371 billion traded on September 9, when the turnover ratio was 0.81%. Total market capitalization was RMB 181.877 billion and free-float market capitalization RMB 167.623 billion.

Depending on the profit basis, market-capitalization P/E was in the range of 16x annualized to 20.5x TTM to 21.6x trailing. P/B was 1.98x and book value per share RMB 10.0146. The 52-week range was RMB 16.68–24.29, placing the current price in the lower-middle portion, approximately 18.6% below the high and 18.6% above the low.

Performance figures differ by source: approximately -6.4% to -6.5% year to date, -1.10% to -2.05% over five days, +4.48% over 20 days, +7.70% over 60 days, -5.49% over one month and -4.60% over three months. Sources are separately identified and should not be mixed. The construction-machinery sector fell 2.08% on September 11. The research minutes did not provide MA5/MA10/MA20/MA60 or Bollinger-band values, nor could the dates of the 52-week high and low be confirmed. Accordingly, this section cannot provide precise moving-average or Bollinger-band positioning; scenarios are based on known price ranges, 52-week highs and lows, trading volume and fund-flow data.

Intraday data showed a net main-fund outflow of RMB 11.5951 million. After substantially higher trading on the previous trading day, activity contracted, and the persistence of fund participation remains to be observed. Complete data on shareholder structure, institutional ownership concentration and recent turnover/trading-value ranges were not available; this limitation should be stated in the liquidity discussion.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and historical price, trading-volume and fund-flow data. The weights are experience-based judgments rather than statistical probabilities and do not constitute investment advice.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50%–60%; subjective judgment, not a statistical probability): The share price fluctuates within RMB 19.5–20.5, trading value remains at recent reduced levels of approximately RMB 600 million–1 billion, and turnover remains around 0.4%. Conditions: no major construction-machinery-sector news, a stable broader market and no obvious new fund inflows. Neither short-term resistance nor first support is decisively breached.
• Weak downside (medium weight; subjective judgment, not a statistical probability): If the sector’s weakness on September 11 continues—the construction-machinery sector fell 2.08%—and trading value does not expand, the share price may break below RMB 19.5 and seek support at RMB 19.0 or lower. Conditions include daily trading value remaining below RMB 600 million, continued net main-fund outflows and sustained sector weakness. A break below the RMB 16.7–17.0 strong-support range would open further downside.
• Stronger rebound (low weight; subjective judgment, not a statistical probability): If a sector catalyst or company-specific news emerges and daily trading value expands significantly, for example above RMB 1.3 billion, referring to the September 9 level, the stock may challenge RMB 20.2–20.5. A firm break could lead to RMB 21 or higher. Conditions include materially higher trading value, a shift to net main-fund inflows and broad sector strength.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

The research minutes did not provide complete recent turnover ranges, average daily trading-value ranges or top-10 shareholder concentration, preventing quantitative assessment of order-book depth and market-impact costs. Available data include a 0.38% turnover ratio and RMB 632 million of trading value on September 11; a 0.81% turnover ratio and RMB 1.371 billion of trading value on September 9; and a September 11 intraday net main-fund outflow of RMB 11.5951 million.

Regarding shareholder structure, the minutes cited an “institutional trend indicator” showing that more than 30 institutions reduced their disclosed holdings in the second quarter of 2026, based on East Money/Jiemian News on August 31, 2026. However, no detailed list of the top 10 shareholders, aggregate holdings, or mutual-fund, social-security-fund or QFII positions was provided. The data also relate to 2Q26 and are lagged; the structure may have changed. Overall, available data are insufficient for a definitive liquidity assessment. Complete shareholder registers and multi-day trading data are required.

If daily trading value subsequently remains above RMB 1.3 billion, referring to the RMB 1.371 billion level on September 9, this may be regarded as a signal of fund participation, subject to confirmation from sector performance and price positioning.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 20.2–20.5 short-term resistance is decisively broken and whether trading value expands simultaneously.
• Observe whether the RMB 19.5–19.8 first-support range is breached; if so, monitor demand around the RMB 16.7–17.0 strong-support range.
• Monitor trading-value signals: whether daily trading value remains above RMB 1.3 billion and whether main-fund flows turn net positive.
• Monitor the overall construction-machinery sector and company-specific news, as sector co-movement may amplify individual-stock volatility.

The above scenarios are based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical price, trading-volume and fund-flow data. Short-term share prices may be affected by news, liquidity, broader-market conditions and other factors. Technical indicators are lagging and limited and cannot guarantee future performance. This does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation; investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Overview

Construction machinery is a capital-, labor- and technology-intensive industry. The domestic market has high concentration and a tiered competitive structure, while the global market is characterized by a “three-way balance of power.” Chinese companies are transitioning from followers to leaders. China’s construction-machinery market was worth USD 23.4 billion in 2024, approximately 11% of the global market, and is expected to reach USD 57.0 billion by 2030, implying a CAGR of approximately 16% (China Commercial Industry Research Institute, cited by Guoyuan Securities on October 31, 2025).

Sany Heavy Industry is the world’s third-largest and China’s largest construction-machinery company according to Frost & Sullivan, based on cumulative revenue from core construction-machinery products during 2020–2024. Its cumulative global excavator unit-sales share was 11.3%, ranking first globally, and its cumulative global concrete-machinery sales share was 35.9%, also ranking first globally.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The global market has a “three-way balance of power”; domestic concentration is high, competition is tiered and competition among leading companies is intense.
• KHL’s 2025 Yellow Table ranked XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion among the top 10 globally, while LiuGong ranked 18th. Total sales of the 2024 list were USD 237.6 billion. On this basis, global market shares were approximately 5.4% for XCMG, 4.6% for Sany and 2.4% for Zoomlion, or 12.4% combined (Zheshang Securities 2026 annual strategy, April 8, 2026).
• 2025 production and sales of major products, compiled by Mysteel from listed-company announcements on May 7, 2026: XCMG produced 165,819 units (+14.05%) and sold 154,827 (+5.12%); Sany produced 117,554 (+17.75%) and sold 114,115 (+16.82%); Zoomlion produced 106,511 (-7.60%) and sold 103,268 (-9.41%); LiuGong produced 84,356 (+5.89%) and sold 84,564 (+9.63%).
• Sany’s own disclosures indicate that it has been the domestic excavating-machinery unit-sales leader for 15 consecutive years; concrete machinery has ranked first globally for 15 consecutive years; its rotary-drilling-rig share ranks first domestically; and domestic-sales growth in 1H25 ranked Sany > LiuGong > Shantui > XCMG > Zoomlion (China Merchants Securities, September 11, 2025).
• Frost & Sullivan, as cited in the Hong Kong prospectus, ranked Sany the world’s third-largest and China’s largest construction-machinery company by cumulative core-product revenue from 2020–2024; its global excavator unit-sales share was 11.3%, ranking first, and its global concrete-machinery sales share was 35.9%, also ranking first.

6.3 Major Competitors

Compared with peers, Sany’s differentiation lies in: ① the highest overseas-revenue mix—62.60% in 2025 and approximately 61.33% in 1H26, materially above XCMG’s approximately 46.61% in 1H25 and Zoomlion’s approximately 55.58%; ② its dual leadership in global concrete machinery and excavator unit-sales share, with a relatively focused product portfolio; and ③ a broader capital platform through its A+H listings.

XCMG has the broadest product line, the highest 2024 KHL global market share at 5.4% and the highest 2025 production, but its overseas mix is lower and U.S. exposure is below 1%. Zoomlion is strong in cranes and concrete machinery, but its 2025 production and sales declined. LiuGong is smaller in scale. Sany has greater advantages in overseas exposure and product-mix upgrades, but the pace of domestic-cycle recovery and the sustainability of overseas market-share gains require continued monitoring.

7. Risk Factors

• Foreign-exchange risk: The approximately RMB 2.104 billion net foreign-exchange loss in 1H26 reduced attributable net-profit growth to 9.13%, while adjusted attributable net profit declined 13.45%. With international revenue exceeding 60%, renminbi movements may continue to cause substantial profit volatility.
• Overseas operating and expansion risk: International principal-business revenue accounted for 61.33% in 1H26. Performance therefore depends heavily on overseas demand, local competition, channel development and service systems. If overseas growth or market-share gains fall short of expectations, revenue and gross-margin improvement may slow.
• Downstream credit and receivables risk: The company uses direct sales, distributors, installment loans and finance leases and bears customer-financing and advance-funding responsibilities. Historically, accounts receivable, long-term receivables, loans and advances, and overdue amounts advanced for customers were substantial. A decline in the repayment capacity of construction companies or individual machine owners could increase bad debts and cash-flow pressure.
• Domestic demand-cycle risk: Domestic principal-business gross margin was approximately 20.69% in 2025, materially below the international principal-business gross margin of approximately 31.64%. If infrastructure, real estate, mining and other domestic downstream demand recovers more slowly than expected, domestic operations may face pressure on volume, prices and scale effects.
• Raw-material and key-component cost risk: Raw materials account for approximately 85% of construction-machinery costs, and the company is mainly a price taker for steel and other bulk commodities. It must also continue increasing in-house production of hydraulic components, engines and transmission parts. Rising raw-material prices or slower-than-expected internalization could pressure gross-margin improvement.
• Earnings-forecast execution risk: 1H26 attributable net profit grew only 9.13%, while market consensus for full-year attributable net profit was approximately RMB 10.1–10.8 billion, implying 21%–28% growth from 2025. If foreign-exchange losses persist, adjusted profit fails to recover or operating growth slows, forecasts may be revised down.
• Technical and liquidity risk: As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 19.78, turnover only 0.38% and trading value RMB 632 million, materially below September 9. Intraday data showed net main-fund outflows of RMB 11.5951 million. Continued weakness in the construction-machinery sector could lead the stock to break the RMB 19.5–19.8 support area and widen volatility.
• Buyback-execution uncertainty: The RMB 400–800 million A-share buyback approved in July 2026 had not been implemented as of August 31. Execution progress and implementation of the employee stock-ownership plan remain uncertain; the proposed buyback amount should not be treated as completed capital returns.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Sany Heavy Industry’s medium-term growth thesis is primarily based on overseas expansion, global competitiveness in core products, larger-scale and new-energy products, and profitability improvements from in-house production of core components and expense control. Overseas revenue now exceeds 60% and overseas gross margin is materially higher than domestic gross margin. If overseas volumes, channels and service systems continue to improve, revenue growth and overall gross margin still have room to advance. Rapid growth in piling, excavating and concrete machinery also supports the product mix.

The key concern is that 1H26 revenue growth did not fully translate into adjusted-profit growth, while foreign-exchange movements had a significant impact on earnings. Market consensus expects 2026 revenue of approximately RMB 102–104 billion and attributable net profit of approximately RMB 10.1–10.8 billion, implying relatively rapid growth from 2025 and requiring a marked acceleration in second-half profit. Key items to monitor include whether foreign-exchange effects subside, whether overseas gross margin can be maintained, the extent of domestic demand recovery, and whether cash flow and receivables risk continue to improve.

The company’s current valuation is approximately 16–21.6x earnings, while recent trading has contracted and no clear technical trend has formed. Future performance will depend on earnings delivery, overseas market-share gains, renminbi movements and risk appetite for the construction-machinery sector. The balance between fundamental growth and profit volatility remains the central variable to monitor.

Data Sources

• Sany Heavy Industry (600031)_Company Profile_China Finance Online
• 600031 Sany Heavy Industry
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031) 2026 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis–Stockstar
• Sany Heavy Industry: Investor Relations Activity Record
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031)–F10 Materials–Compass Market
• 600031 Sany Heavy Industry–Principal Business
• Sany Heavy Industry: 2025 Annual Report Summary
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031)_Operating Summary_China Finance Online
• Sany Heavy Industry 2025 Third-Quarter Earnings Briefing
• Sany Heavy Industry Passes Hong Kong Stock Exchange Main-Board Listing Hearing
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031): 2024 Annual Report Review
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031): 2024 Results Exceeded Expectations
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031): Strong Growth and Improved Profitability
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031): Continued Profitability Improvement
• Sany Heavy Industry 2024 Annual Report Review–Stockstar
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031): Domestic Demand Bottoming and Strong Overseas Demand
• Continued Profitability Improvement and Substantial Cash-Flow Improvement
• Higher International Revenue Mix Drives More Than 30% Net-Profit Growth
• 2025 Global Construction Machinery Manufacturers Top 50
• Mysteel: 14 Construction-Machinery Manufacturers Release 2025 Production and Sales Data
• Globalization Takes Effect in 1H; Profitability Expected to Remain Warm in 2H
• 2026 Construction-Machinery Industry Annual Investment Strategy
• Sany Heavy Industry 2025 Annual Earnings Briefing
• Sany Heavy Industry 2026 Interim Report Summary
• Sany Heavy Industry 1H26 Revenue RMB 53.506 Billion, Up 19.49%
• Sany Heavy Industry 19.78 -1.15%
• 600031 Stock Price | Sany Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. A Stock Quote
• Sany Heavy Industry Technical Analysis
• Sany Heavy Industry Shareholder Research
• Sany Heavy Industry 2026 Second-Quarter Institutional Holdings
• Sany Heavy Industry: RMB 400–800 Million Buyback Plan
• Sany Heavy Industry Buyback Progress Announcement
• Sany Heavy Industry 2026 Interim Results Release
• Sany Heavy Industry 2026H1 Results Review
• Sany Heavy Industry: 1H26 Net Profit RMB 5.69 Billion, Up 9.13%
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH): 1H26 Net Profit RMB 5.690 Billion
• Sany Heavy Industry 2025 Visualized Annual Report
• Sany Heavy Industry Overseas Revenue Reaches Record RMB 32 Billion
• Sany Heavy Industry (600031) 2025 Annual Report Review
• Sany Heavy Industry Financial Summary–Investing.com
• SANY Heavy (600031 CH)
• SANY Heavy (600031 CH/6031 HK)
• Sany Heavy Industry Consensus Estimates
• Koyfin Investor Analytics
• Sany Heavy Industry Forecasts–Simply Wall St
• Sany Heavy Industry Financial Forecasts–MarketScreener
• Sany Heavy Industry First-Rating Report
• Sany Heavy Industry Company Announcements
• Sany Heavy Industry 2026 Buyback Plan
• Sany Heavy Industry 52-Week Price Chart
• Sany Heavy Industry Fund Flows
• Sany Heavy Industry Intraday Fund Outflow
• Sany Heavy Industry Shareholder Information
• Sany Heavy Industry Institutional Holdings

This report was automatically retrieved, organized and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the September 11, 2026 close (Friday); comparative data for the previous trading day are based on the September 9, 2026 close. Sources include East Money, CLS.cn, Securities Times e Company, Jiufang Intelligent Investment and Sina Finance. Timing differences may exist. Specific data should be verified against the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is intended solely for information organization and research reference and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.