Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. (600256)

Equity Research Report | Sector: Integrated Energy | Report Date: September 14, 2026 | Based on the close of September 11, 2026; on September 14, 2026, only an intraday or delayed quote of approximately RMB 7.07 was available, and final closing data unanimously confirmed by multiple sources had not yet been obtained. The following analysis uses the September 11, 2026 closing data as the benchmark.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Guanghui Energy currently exhibits a "revenue under pressure, profit recovering" profile: in the first half of 2026, operating revenue was RMB 14.241 billion, down 9.57% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.278 billion, up 49.81% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 1.331 billion, up 59.67% year-on-year; and net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 2.814 billion, broadly flat year-on-year. The earnings improvement mainly reflects the recovery in profitability of coal, coal chemical and other businesses as well as the reduction of period expenses, but it is not yet sufficient to simply extrapolate to full-year performance.

The company has built a diversified business system covering coal, coal chemicals, natural gas and LNG, petroleum, energy logistics, as well as hydrogen energy and CCUS. Its core advantages lie in the Nao Mao Hu coal resources in Xinjiang, the internal synergy between coal and coal chemicals, and the coastal energy corridor formed by the Qidong LNG receiving terminal. At the same time, Xinjiang coal faces long outbound transportation distances and high transportation and logistics costs, while the imported LNG business is also affected by international gas prices, domestic sales prices and seasonal price spreads, so overall profitability remains highly cyclical.

In 2025, the company's operating revenue was RMB 30.440 billion, down 16.47% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.345 billion, down 54.46% year-on-year; and the overall gross margin fell to 19.70%. Among these, the coal gross margin was 15.30%, the natural gas gross margin was 21.36%, and the coal chemical product gross margin was 33.19%. Institutional forecasts put the average 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at approximately RMB 3.238 billion, but the forecast range of RMB 2.525 billion to RMB 4.039 billion shows considerable divergence. Whether the earnings recovery can be sustained depends on coal prices, coal chemical price spreads, capacity utilization and cost control.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price closed at RMB 7.02, approximately 10.6% below its 52-week high of RMB 7.85, and remained above the MA10, MA20 and major medium- and long-term moving averages, although in the short term it had fallen below the MA5 under some conventions. RSI is at or near overbought territory, and main-force capital recorded a net outflow of approximately RMB 21.9607 million over the past 5 trading days, indicating increased divergence at high levels after the rally. The company simultaneously faces substantial guarantee and related counter-guarantee obligations, with fundamental recovery and credit risk exposure coexisting.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Coal: Main products are raw coal and upgraded coal, with resources concentrated in the Nao Mao Hu mining area of Hami, Xinjiang. Sales cover markets including thermal coal, chemical coal, pulverized coal injection and industrial boiler coal.
• Coal chemicals: Main products include methanol, coal-to-LNG, coal-based oil products, coal tar, ethylene glycol and by-products. Using self-produced coal as the primary raw material, the company enhances the added value of coal through coal gasification, pyrolysis, coal tar hydrogenation and comprehensive utilization of crude gas.
• Natural gas and LNG: Includes self-produced coal-to-LNG, imported LNG receiving and trading, LNG tanker sales, natural gas pipeline networks and terminal gas sales. Customers cover gas companies, power plants, industrial users, vehicle gas and residential gas markets.
• Petroleum: Conducts petroleum and natural gas resource development through overseas oil and gas assets, with major assets including oil and gas blocks in Central Asia; it has not yet become a core source of revenue and profit.
• Hydrogen energy and CCUS: The company is deploying green power-to-hydrogen, industrial by-product hydrogen, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transport, hydrogen refueling and hydrogen-powered heavy truck applications; the first-phase 100,000-ton/year carbon dioxide capture and utilization demonstration project is used to produce liquid carbon dioxide and conduct oilfield flooding. At present it is in the demonstration and incubation stage.
• Energy logistics: The coal business adopts a "road + rail" transportation model, mainly relying on the Nao-Liu Highway, the Hong-Nao Railway and the Liugou logistics transshipment base; the Jiangsu Qidong LNG receiving terminal forms a coastal energy corridor.

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

Guanghui Energy has formed an integrated energy business system of "coal resource development—coal chemical conversion—natural gas and LNG sales—energy logistics—oil and gas resource development—hydrogen energy and CCUS." Its core bases include the Hami Nao Mao Hu coal and coal chemical base, the Jiangsu Qidong LNG and offshore integrated energy base, and the Central Asia oil and gas integrated development base.

• The core raw material for the coal chemical business is self-produced coal; the annual report states that the upstream raw materials for methanol, coal-to-LNG and coal-based oil products are all coal, and the ethylene glycol project uses crude gas generated from coal pyrolysis and further purifies carbon monoxide and hydrogen to produce ethylene glycol.
• The natural gas business does not entirely use self-produced gas sources; imported LNG trading still requires the procurement of international LNG, and profits are affected by international gas prices, domestic sales prices and seasonal price spreads.
• The company has the advantages of coal resource self-sufficiency and internal coal conversion, but Xinjiang coal faces long outbound transportation distances, and transportation, outsourcing and logistics costs are important cost variables. In 2024, among coal business costs, freight and logistics service fees were approximately RMB 6.852 billion, and outsourcing fees were approximately RMB 3.480 billion, with the two accounting for a relatively high proportion of coal sales costs.
• The company's coal resources are mainly located in the Nao Mao Hu mining area of the Tuha Coalfield in Xinjiang. According to public communications and rating and brokerage materials, the total resource reserves of Baishihu, Malang and the eastern exploration area are approximately 6.597 billion tons; this figure has not been fully updated in the company annual report tables as of the end of 2025 retrieved for this report, and should not be directly equated with currently immediately minable reserves.
• Supplier concentration: The research notes do not disclose concentration data for coal, imported LNG and other major suppliers.
• Pricing power: The company lacks full control over the raw material costs of bulk products such as coal, methanol, coal-to-LNG, coal-based oil products and ethylene glycol, and coal prices, international gas prices and transportation costs are highly exogenous; self-produced coal can reduce some risks of externally purchased raw materials, but does not constitute pricing power over all costs.
• Coal downstream mainly includes power enterprises, industrial boiler users, coal chemical, coking, methanol and other chemical enterprises; sales regions cover Xinjiang, Gansu and regions including Ningxia, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou and Shandong.
• Natural gas and LNG downstream includes city gas, power plants, industrial gas customers, LNG refueling stations, transportation fuel and residential gas customers; coal chemical product downstream includes basic organic chemical raw materials, gas, coal tar deep processing and other fields.
• The company's main products are bulk energy or chemical products, and prices are mainly affected by market prices of coal, natural gas, crude oil, methanol, ethylene glycol and refined oil products. Market-based pricing or negotiated pricing is generally adopted, and the company lacks the strong bargaining power of consumer goods brand enterprises.
• The coal business is essentially a price taker, with profit depending on coal prices, coal quality, transportation radius and capacity utilization; the coal chemical business depends on the spread between coal costs and product prices; the imported LNG business is easily affected by a reversal between international and domestic prices.
• Customer concentration: As of December 31, 2025, the top five customers by accounts receivable balance accounted for 27.57% of the accounts receivable balance, versus 30.83% in 2024. This indicator is based on the accounts receivable balance and is not equivalent to the share of the top five customers by sales revenue; the research notes did not identify a complete disclosure in the 2025 annual report of the revenue share of the top five sales customers, so revenue-side customer concentration cannot be judged on this basis.
• Downstream bargaining relationship: Bulk energy and chemical customers are generally highly price-sensitive, and the company finds it difficult to pass on all cost fluctuations through brand premiums; the imported LNG trade also requires proactive adjustment of purchased gas and international trade scale depending on market reversals.
• As of December 31, 2025, the company's book balance of accounts receivable was approximately RMB 2.148 billion, with bad debt provisions of approximately RMB 162 million; based on 2025 operating revenue of RMB 30.440 billion, the book balance of accounts receivable accounted for approximately 7.1% of full-year revenue. The top five customers by accounts receivable balance accounted for 27.57%, indicating that the company as a whole is not highly dependent on credit sales, but there is still certain customer credit concentration risk. The research notes do not disclose complete annual data for accounts receivable turnover days, prepayments and accounts payable.
• Neither supplier concentration nor the revenue share of the top five sales customers is disclosed in the research notes. The available customer concentration data is that the top five customers by accounts receivable balance as of December 31, 2025 accounted for 27.57%, versus 30.83% in 2024; this data is based on the accounts receivable balance, not sales revenue, and the research notes do not indicate the existence of other cross-verifiable sales customer concentration data, so the latest annual report should prevail.

Guanghui Energy is positioned in the integrated energy industry chain of "upstream coal resource development + midstream coal chemical and LNG conversion + downstream energy logistics and terminal sales," and as a whole is a resource-based, midstream processing energy enterprise rather than a pure coal mining or natural gas trading company. The company is not a typical high-bargaining-power, high-margin upstream resource or downstream brand enterprise; profit improvement mainly depends on coal capacity release and lower transportation costs, recovery in coal and natural gas price spreads, higher coal chemical plant utilization, and the ramp-up of higher value-added products such as coal quality grading and ethylene glycol.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The latest financial report is the "Guanghui Energy 2026 Semi-Annual Report," disclosed on August 21, 2026, covering the reporting period from January 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026. In the first half of 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 1.331 billion, up 59.67% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were approximately RMB 0.20. In the first half of 2026, net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 2.814 billion, broadly flat year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2026, net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 1.460 billion, up approximately 93.77% year-on-year; for full year 2025, net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 4.878 billion, down 14.02% year-on-year.

The company is currently in a stage of "revenue under pressure, profit recovering." In the first half of 2026, operating revenue declined year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses grew significantly. The notes believe this mainly reflects improved profitability in coal, coal chemical and other businesses as well as reduced period expenses. The second quarter 2026 data is derived from the semi-annual report and the first-quarter report and is a calculated value, not quarterly income statement data separately disclosed by the company; the above improvement cannot be simply extrapolated to full-year profit growth.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

The above are the institutional forecast averages shown on the Hithink RoyalFlush earnings forecast page as of September 12, 2026. A total of 14 institutions forecast 2026 performance within the past 6 months. The 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast range is RMB 2.525 billion to RMB 4.039 billion, 2027 is RMB 2.835 billion to RMB 5.808 billion, and 2028 is RMB 2.751 billion to RMB 7.568 billion; the revenue forecast ranges are approximately RMB 27.680 billion to RMB 38.362 billion, RMB 26.882 billion to RMB 42.403 billion and RMB 26.268 billion to RMB 48.604 billion, respectively. The number of institutions actually listed on the revenue forecast detail page is fewer than 14, and the statistical basis for average revenue may differ from that for net profit and EPS, so it cannot be regarded as a strict full-market consensus forecast.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of the close on September 11, 2026, the company's share price was RMB 7.02, total market capitalization was approximately RMB 44.872 billion, and total share capital was approximately 6.392 billion shares; the TTM price-to-earnings ratio was approximately 25.34x, the static price-to-earnings ratio was approximately 33.43x, and the price-to-book ratio was approximately 1.80x. Valuation differs across platforms: Lixinger shows a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 25.96x and a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.84x; China Finance Network shows a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 25.35x and a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.88x; Futu NiuNiu shows a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 25.34x and a static price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 33.43x, with differences possibly arising from different financial reporting bases, update times and calculation methods. Based on the average institutional forecast EPS from Hithink RoyalFlush, under the assumption that the share price remains unchanged at RMB 7.02, the forecast PE for 2026 to 2028 is approximately 13.76x, 11.51x and 9.75x, respectively; this basis is based on institutional forecasts and is not company-disclosed data or an official exchange valuation indicator. Regarding target prices, Huachuang Securities gave a target price of RMB 9.62 and a "Strong Buy" rating on May 6, 2026, based on a valuation of approximately 20x PE; the analyst target price range summarized by Futu NiuNiu as of September 11, 2026 was RMB 7.05 to RMB 9.62, with an average target price of RMB 8.34. Based on the closing price of RMB 7.02, the average target price implies potential upside of approximately 18.8%, the highest target price implies approximately 37.0%, and the lowest target price is close to the current price. RMB 8.34 is third-party platform summary data, and the original reports of all 18 analysts could not be verified, so it should not be regarded as a strict multi-broker consensus target price. Overall, the current valuation is not cheap on a TTM basis, but if the profit forecasts for 2026 and beyond can be achieved, forward valuation will decline significantly; the reasonableness of the valuation depends on energy prices, coal chemical price spreads, capacity release and the sustainability of the profit recovery.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting Approves Guarantee, Counter-Guarantee and Guarantee Compensation Proposals

On September 8, 2026, Guanghui Energy held its second extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 and approved two proposals: accepting a guarantee from controlling shareholder Xinjiang Guanghui Industrial Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. and providing a counter-guarantee to it as a related-party transaction, and assuming guarantee compensation responsibility for the debt performance of associate company Gansu Honghui Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. A total of 1,512 shareholders and proxies attended, representing 2,288,064,684 shares with voting rights, accounting for 35.7957% of the company's total shares with voting rights. The approval ratios for the two proposals were 99.1523% and 99.1532%, respectively, with related shareholders abstaining from voting. Shareholders below 5% approved the two proposals at ratios of 93.3423% and 86.3978%, respectively. The company disclosed the extraordinary shareholders' meeting resolution announcement and the lawyer's legal opinion on September 9. The lawyer considered the meeting convening and holding procedures, qualifications of attendees, voting procedures and voting results to be legal and valid.

4.2 Gansu Honghui Has Already Incurred Guarantee Compensation, with Outstanding Guarantee Risk Remaining

On August 21, 2026, Guanghui Energy disclosed an announcement on assuming guarantee compensation responsibility for the debt performance of associate company Gansu Honghui Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. Gansu Honghui is 50%-owned by Guanghui Energy and 50%-owned by Jiuquan Iron and Steel Group. Due to process technology upgrades, large capital expenditure investment and technical transformation energy efficiency not yet fully realized, it has experienced periodic operating and cash flow pressure, and some bank loans cannot be repaid in full and on time. As of the disclosure date of the announcement, the company had completed cumulative guarantee compensation of RMB 39.1952 million, including interest of RMB 6.1082 million; the outstanding guarantee amount for Gansu Honghui was RMB 588.3895 million. If subsequent debts continue to be unrepaid, the company may need to fulfill compensation obligations in installments within the guarantee scope and will obtain the right of recourse in accordance with law.

4.3 The Company's Guarantee Balance Is Large, and There Is Uncertainty over Subsequent Compensation for Gansu Honghui

As of July 31, 2026, Guanghui Energy's guarantee balance was RMB 10.9222668 billion, accounting for 45.10% of the audited equity attributable to owners of the parent company for 2025; among this, the guarantee balance provided to controlling subsidiaries was RMB 8.9451491 billion, accounting for 36.93% of net assets. The company's announcement stated that there are currently no overdue guarantees, but there remains uncertainty over further compensation for Gansu Honghui. The company judges that the impact of this matter on short-term operating cash flow and current profit or loss is relatively small, but the outstanding guarantee amount of RMB 588.3895 million still constitutes a contingent liability risk requiring continuous monitoring.

4.4 Acceptance of Controlling Shareholder Guarantee and Provision of Counter-Guarantee Approved by Shareholders' Meeting

On August 21, 2026, Guanghui Energy disclosed an announcement on accepting a guarantee from its controlling shareholder and providing a counter-guarantee to it as a related-party transaction. As of July 31, 2026, the guarantee balance provided by controlling shareholder Guanghui Group to Guanghui Energy and its subsidiaries was RMB 8.4052228 billion, with a planned additional guarantee limit of RMB 2.5 billion. Guanghui Energy plans to provide a corresponding counter-guarantee to Guanghui Group using its own credit and pay guarantee fees on a market-oriented basis. This matter helps the company maintain financing channels and debt maturity arrangements, but it also increases the listed company's counter-guarantee obligations to the controlling shareholder and its related-party guarantee and credit risk exposure. The relevant proposal was approved at the extraordinary shareholders' meeting on September 8, with related directors and related shareholders abstaining from voting as required.

4.5 Controlling Shareholder Adds New Share Pledges, with High Pledge and Freeze Ratios

On July 18, 2026, Guanghui Energy disclosed an announcement on partial share pledges and release of pledges by controlling shareholder Guanghui Group. Guanghui Group added a pledge of 70,000,000 Guanghui Energy shares to China Orient Asset Management Co., Ltd. Gansu Provincial Branch. As of the announcement disclosure date, Guanghui Group held 1,303,098,651 shares of the company, accounting for 20.39% of the company's total share capital; cumulatively pledged shares were 1,006,865,737, including 135,000,000 marked shares, accounting for 77.27% of its holdings and 15.75% of the company's total share capital; cumulatively frozen shares were 60,360,000, accounting for 0.94% of the company's total share capital; cumulative pledged and frozen shares together accounted for 16.70% of the company's total share capital. The announcement noted the need to pay attention to controlling shareholder financing and pledge risks. As of September 14, 2026, no new announcements of large-scale increases, decreases or additional pledges by the controlling shareholder were identified.

4.6 First Half 2026 Earnings Pre-Increase, with Actual Semi-Annual Results Within the Pre-Announcement Range

On June 30, 2026, Guanghui Energy issued a semi-annual earnings pre-increase announcement, expecting first half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB 1.170 billion to RMB 1.320 billion, up 37.10% to 54.68% year-on-year; expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of RMB 1.230 billion to RMB 1.380 billion, up 47.49% to 65.47% year-on-year. The semi-annual report disclosed on August 21, 2026 showed that the company achieved first half operating revenue of RMB 14.241 billion, down 9.57% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 1.278 billion, up 49.81% year-on-year. Actual net profit attributable to shareholders fell in the middle of the previous earnings pre-announcement range, and the earnings pre-increase information was verified by the semi-annual report.

4.7 Semi-Annual Results Briefing to Be Held on September 24

The company announced that it will hold the 2026 semi-annual results briefing on September 24, 2026 from 11:00 to 12:00 at the SSE Roadshow Center in an online interactive format, and investors may submit questions from September 17 to September 23. As of September 14, 2026, the briefing has not yet been held, and the latest Q&A content regarding the company's second half operations, coal sales, natural gas business and guarantee risks has not yet been disclosed.

4.8 No Buybacks, Increases/Decreases in Holdings or Major M&A Identified Recently

As of September 14, 2026, through searches of the company's announcement list and related keywords, no Guanghui Energy share buyback plan, controlling shareholder increase plan, major shareholder decrease plan or new major merger, acquisition or asset restructuring announcement disclosed in September 2026 was found. Recent announcements focused on the extraordinary shareholders' meeting, guarantee compensation, controlling shareholder guarantee and counter-guarantee, the semi-annual report and the results briefing arrangement. The above conclusions are based on public announcement searches and cannot exclude subsequent announcements or matters not yet indexed by search pages.

4.9 No New Regulatory Investigations, Penalties or Major Inquiries Identified as of September 14

As of September 14, 2026, no new regulatory investigations, administrative penalties, exchange disciplinary actions or major inquiry announcements for Guanghui Energy during the period from June to September 2026 were identified. The main risks currently publicly disclosed are concentrated in Gansu Honghui debt compensation, the high pledge ratio of the controlling shareholder, and the large scale of guarantees and counter-guarantees of the listed company.

4.10 Recent News Flow Shows Coexistence of Earnings Improvement and Guarantee Credit Risk

As of September 14, 2026, Guanghui Energy's first half net profit attributable to shareholders increased 49.81% year-on-year, and the earnings pre-increase was verified by the semi-annual report; the extraordinary shareholders' meeting approved financing guarantee, counter-guarantee and guarantee compensation-related proposals by a high margin, which is short-term favorable for maintaining financing arrangements. At the same time, Gansu Honghui has already incurred RMB 39.1952 million in guarantee compensation, with RMB 588.3895 million in outstanding guarantees; the company's guarantee balance as of July 31, 2026 was RMB 10.9222668 billion; and the controlling shareholder's cumulative pledged and frozen shares accounted for 16.70% of the company's total share capital. Going forward, key focus should be placed on the semi-annual results briefing's explanation of Gansu Honghui debt restructuring, project transformation, subsequent guarantee compensation and recourse progress, as well as changes in controlling shareholder equity pledges and the company's guarantee and counter-guarantee scale.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

Guanghui Energy's share price probed as low as RMB 4.65 in June 2026 and then gradually recovered, fluctuating upward from July to August, and surged rapidly to RMB 7.42 on September 8 to 9, followed by two consecutive days of decline. As of September 11, 2026, the closing price of RMB 7.02 was still above MA10, MA20 and the Bollinger middle band, and the major moving average system was generally bullish, but it had fallen below MA5 under some conventions, and RSI was in overbought territory, indicating that short-term momentum had weakened somewhat. On the capital side, main-force capital had a net outflow of approximately RMB 21.9607 million over the past 5 days, while margin financing funds still participated, indicating the coexistence of high-level divergence and support. Going forward, key technical observations are whether the RMB 6.90 to RMB 7.02 support can hold, and whether the RMB 7.35 to RMB 7.53 resistance zone can be effectively broken with simultaneous improvement in turnover and main-force capital. Different platforms differ in update times or bases for data such as moving averages, valuation and number of shareholders, and related indicators should be reviewed against the latest market terminals.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario projection based on public historical market data and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute a guarantee of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective weights, not statistical probabilities)

• High-level range-bound consolidation (relatively high weight, approximately 60%; this weight is a subjective heuristic judgment based on the current technical pattern and capital flows, not a statistical probability): price range approximately RMB 6.90~7.35. Trigger conditions are that the share price holds the RMB 6.90~7.02 support but cannot effectively break above the RMB 7.35~7.53 resistance; turnover remains approximately RMB 900 million~RMB 1.4 billion, and main-force capital continues to record small net outflows or capital flows fluctuate. This scenario is relatively consistent with the current situation of consecutive declines after the rally, RSI in overbought territory and main-force capital net outflows over the past 5 days.
• Weaker downside (medium weight; a subjective heuristic judgment based on the current technical pattern and capital flows, not a statistical probability): price range approximately RMB 6.55~6.90. Trigger conditions are that the share price falls below RMB 6.90 and closes below it for consecutive days, with single-day turnover expanding but main-force capital continuing to record net outflows; if it further breaks below RMB 6.55, it may open room for a pullback to the RMB 6.20~6.40 area. If the energy sector weakens simultaneously or market risk appetite declines, the likelihood of this scenario increases, and it is important to distinguish between a volume-driven decline and a low-volume pullback.
• Rebound and strengthening (low to medium weight; a subjective heuristic judgment based on the current technical pattern and capital flows, not a statistical probability): price range approximately RMB 7.35~7.85. Trigger conditions are that the share price regains RMB 7.35, while single-day turnover exceeds RMB 1.5 billion, the turnover rate is above approximately 3.2%, and main-force capital turns to obvious net inflows; if it further breaks above RMB 7.53, it may move toward the previous high area of RMB 7.75~7.85. This scenario also requires continued strength in the energy, coal or oil and petrochemical sectors, or new catalysts in oil and gas, coal prices, geopolitical situations, etc. The current positive MACD and bullish moving average alignment alone are not yet sufficient to confirm a new round of accelerated gains.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, recent normal turnover was roughly RMB 900 million~RMB 1.6 billion, with a turnover rate of roughly 2.2%~3.6%; the average turnover over the past 5 full trading days was approximately RMB 1.29 billion, with an average turnover rate of approximately 2.8%. As of June 30, 2026, the top ten tradable shareholders together held approximately 2.859 billion shares, accounting for 44.72% of tradable share capital, so chips are not highly dispersed; however, the specific holdings of public funds, social security funds or QFII have not been fully verified, and it cannot be judged on this basis that institutional funds are continuously increasing holdings. The controlling shareholder's pledge ratio is relatively high, and the relevant data is as of June 30, 2026, with a quarterly lag; the number of shareholders is as of August 31, 2026 and may also have changed. The practical implication is that the current chip concentration and liquidity background can provide some support, but cannot replace observation of real-time order book, capital flows and pledge risks. If the share price rises above RMB 7.35 while single-day turnover continues to expand to more than RMB 1.5 billion and main-force capital turns from net outflows over the past 5 days to net inflows, this can be regarded as a confirmation signal of improved short-term capital participation; if turnover expands but main-force capital continues to record net outflows and the share price cannot hold above RMB 7.35, attention should be paid to volume-driven stagnation or high-level distribution.

Volume confirmation observation signal: If the share price rises above RMB 7.35 while single-day turnover continues to exceed RMB 1.5 billion, the turnover rate is above approximately 3.2%, and main-force capital turns from net outflows over the past 5 days to net inflows, this can be regarded as a confirmation signal of improved short-term capital participation.

④ Key Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)

• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: Watch whether the RMB 7.35~7.53 resistance zone can be effectively broken with the support of turnover continuously exceeding RMB 1.5 billion and main-force capital turning to net inflows; after a breakout, then watch the previous high area of RMB 7.75~7.85.
• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: Watch whether the first support zone of RMB 6.90~7.02 can form effective support.
• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: If it breaks below RMB 6.55, watch whether the short-term adjustment expands to the RMB 6.20~6.40 area.
• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: Focus on whether turnover can continue to exceed RMB 1.5 billion and appear simultaneously with main-force capital net inflows; if volume expands while main-force capital still records net outflows, watch for volume-driven stagnation risk.

The above scenario projection is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices and technical indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news flow, capital flows, the broader market environment and energy commodity prices. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

Guanghui Energy spans coal, modern coal chemicals, natural gas and LNG, energy logistics, petroleum, hydrogen energy and CCUS, and there is no listed company with completely overlapping businesses. The core of industry competition is reflected in coal resources and transportation corridors, coal chemical raw materials and plant efficiency, and natural gas sources and terminal networks, respectively.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Coal industry: Large state-owned energy groups dominate, with regional coal enterprises participating in competition. Core competitiveness includes resource endowment, mine scale, coal quality, railway capacity, ports and logistics corridors, long-term agreement customers and cost of capital. For Guanghui Energy, Xinjiang coal outbound transportation capacity and comprehensive logistics costs are key variables.
• Modern coal chemicals: Competition has shifted from simple capacity expansion to raw material coal costs, unit energy consumption and environmental costs, plant scale, product mix, comprehensive utilization of by-product gas and waste, and downstream product added value. Guanghui Energy mainly focuses on coal-to-methanol, coal-to-LNG, coal-based oil products and ethylene glycol, with some overlap with enterprises centered on coal-to-olefins, but the product mix is different.
• Natural gas and LNG: The industry covers upstream gas sources, LNG receiving terminals, pipeline transmission and distribution, city gas, industrial fuel and trading. Key factors include international LNG prices, domestic natural gas demand, seasonal price spreads, receiving terminal utilization and terminal customer resources. Guanghui Energy is positioned closer to an integrated enterprise of "self-produced coal-to-gas + LNG receiving terminal + trading and terminal sales."
• Company advantages: Nao Mao Hu coal resources, internal synergy between coal and coal chemicals, and the coastal energy corridor formed by the Qidong LNG receiving terminal.
• Company constraints: Long outbound transportation distance from Xinjiang, high volatility in coal and chemical product prices, and unstable profitability in natural gas trading; compared with large central state-owned enterprises, private enterprises are relatively weaker in capital expenditure, financing costs and long-term transportation resources.
• Resource and capacity uncertainty: The planned capacity of Baishihu, Malang and the eastern mining area is not equal to effective capacity already formed; actual release still depends on project approval, environmental assessment, safety facilities, mining rights, construction progress and coal market supply and demand.
• Comparability limitations: Guanghui Energy's business spans coal, coal chemicals and natural gas, and it is not appropriate to directly use a single coal enterprise or a single natural gas enterprise for a complete competitiveness comparison; the related companies are segment-comparable companies, not completely peer companies.

6.3 Main Competitors

Guanghui Energy's integrated energy attributes make it partially comparable to China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Baofeng Energy, ENN Natural Gas and JOVO Energy in coal resources, modern coal chemicals, natural gas and LNG segments, respectively. Compared with integrated coal leaders, the company's transportation infrastructure and scale are relatively weak; compared with coal-to-olefin enterprises, the company's products are more oriented toward coal-to-LNG, methanol, coal-based oil products and ethylene glycol; compared with natural gas operators, the company has coal resources and self-produced coal-to-LNG gas sources, but imported LNG trade and energy price fluctuations have a more obvious impact.

7. Risk Warnings

• Energy and chemical product price fluctuation risk: The company's products such as coal, methanol, coal-to-LNG, coal-based oil products and ethylene glycol are mainly priced on a market or negotiated basis. In 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 16.47% and 54.46%, respectively. If coal prices, natural gas prices or coal chemical price spreads weaken again, the profit recovery may fall short of expectations.
• Xinjiang outbound transportation and logistics cost risk: The company's coal resources are concentrated in the Nao Mao Hu mining area in Xinjiang, and coal faces long outbound transportation distances; in 2024, coal business freight and logistics service fees were approximately RMB 6.852 billion and outsourcing fees were approximately RMB 3.480 billion. Changes in transportation corridors, railway capacity or logistics prices may directly compress coal business profits.
• Imported LNG trade risk: The natural gas business does not entirely use self-produced gas sources, and imported LNG still requires procurement of international resources. Profit is affected by international LNG prices, domestic sales prices, seasonal price spreads and market reversals, and the company may need to adjust purchased gas and international trade scale.
• Guarantee compensation and contingent liability risk: Gansu Honghui has already incurred RMB 39.1952 million in guarantee compensation, with RMB 588.3895 million in outstanding guarantees; if its debts continue to be unrepaid, the company may need to continue fulfilling compensation obligations, and recourse progress and ultimate losses are uncertain.
• Large guarantee and counter-guarantee scale risk: As of July 31, 2026, the company's guarantee balance was RMB 10.9222668 billion, accounting for 45.10% of 2025 net assets attributable to the parent company; the company also plans to provide a corresponding counter-guarantee to controlling shareholder Guanghui Group using its own credit, which may increase the listed company's credit risk and funding pressure.
• Controlling shareholder equity pledge risk: As of the relevant announcement disclosure date, the controlling shareholder's cumulative pledged and marked shares accounted for approximately 77.27% of its holdings, and cumulative pledged and frozen shares together accounted for 16.70% of the company's total share capital; if the controlling shareholder's financing condition or the value of pledged collateral changes adversely, it may affect the company's credit and share price stability.
• Capacity release below expectations risk: The planned capacity and resource data of Baishihu, Malang and the eastern exploration area are not equivalent to effective capacity already formed, and actual release still depends on project approval, environmental assessment, safety facilities, mining rights and construction progress. Coal output growth and related profit forecasts may therefore fall short.
• Short-term share price pullback risk: The share price probed as low as RMB 4.65 in June 2026 and then recovered rapidly, and fell for consecutive days after surging on September 8 to 9; as of September 11, RSI was at or near overbought territory, and main-force capital recorded net outflows over the past 5 trading days. If it cannot hold the RMB 6.90 to RMB 7.02 area, the technical picture may shift to range-bound weakness.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company's medium-term growth logic mainly comes from coal output and effective capacity release, coal quality grading utilization, improved profitability of coal chemical plants, and optimization of logistics costs and transportation corridor efficiency. In the first half of 2026, profit growth was significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating that even before revenue scale recovered, price spreads, product mix or expense control contributed more to profitability; if coal and coal chemical product prices remain relatively favorable and plant utilization rises, the institutional forecast profit recovery has a certain business basis.

However, the company is not a single upstream resource enterprise with strong pricing power, but is simultaneously exposed to multiple variables such as coal prices, natural gas prices, crude oil and chemical product prices, international LNG spreads and transportation costs. The scale and profitability of the imported LNG trade are easily affected by market reversals, coal outbound transportation costs are sensitive to profit, and hydrogen energy and CCUS are still in the demonstration and incubation stage and cannot yet serve as mature profit pillars.

In terms of valuation, the share price on September 11, 2026 corresponded to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 25.6x to 25.7x; if institutional profit forecasts for 2026 and beyond can be achieved, forward valuation will decline significantly, but forecast ranges and brokerage judgments differ considerably. Going forward, key focus should be placed on the semi-annual results briefing, the sustainability of coal and coal chemical profitability, capacity release progress, Gansu Honghui guarantee compensation, and changes in the company's and controlling shareholder's guarantee and pledge scale, to comprehensively assess the balance between operational improvement and credit risk.

Data Sources

• Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board Listed Company List
• Company Announcement_Guanghui Energy: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Guanghui Energy (600256)_Company Announcement_Guanghui Energy: 2024 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina.com
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• Guanghui Energy: All coal resources currently owned are located in the Nao Mao Hu mining area of the Tuha Coalfield in Xinjiang | NBD
• 〖Financial Analysis〗Guanghui Energy's coal capacity enters a release period; institutions are optimistic about the "Xinjiang coal outbound transportation" investment opportunity - China Financial Information Network
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• Baofeng Energy (600989)_Company Announcement_Baofeng Energy: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina.com
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• Guanghui Energy (600256) Individual Stock Capital Flow Query_Individual Stock Quotes_Hithink RoyalFlush Finance
• Beimo High-Tech target price gain exceeds 88%; ratings for Guanghui Energy, Chuanning Biotechnology, etc. lowered | Brokerage Rating Watch - 21 Finance
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• Guanghui Energy (600256)_Company Announcement_Guanghui Energy: Announcement on Assuming Guarantee Compensation Responsibility for Associate Company Debt Performance Sina Finance_Sina.com
• Guanghui Energy (600256)_Company Announcement_Guanghui Energy: Announcement on Accepting Controlling Shareholder Guarantee and Providing Counter-Guarantee to It as a Related-Party Transaction Sina Finance_Sina.com
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• Guanghui Energy rises 2.08%, turnover RMB 560 million, main-force capital net outflow RMB 35.8558 million_Sina Finance_Sina.com
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This report is automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of the close of September 11, 2026; on September 14, 2026, only an intraday or delayed quote of approximately RMB 7.07 was available, and final closing data unanimously confirmed by multiple sources had not yet been obtained. The following analysis uses the September 11, 2026 closing data as the benchmark. There may be timeliness differences, and specific data should be subject to the company's formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is only for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.