Fushun Special Steel Co., Ltd. (Fushun Special Steel) (600399)

Single-Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Special Steel / Superalloys | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the close on Friday, September 11, 2026

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

The most decision-relevant fact about Fushun Special Steel at present is that the company has not yet achieved a profit recovery. In 2025, revenue was RMB 7.783 billion, down 8.26% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 805 million; in the first half of 2026, revenue was RMB 4.196 billion, up 9.75% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders was still a loss of RMB 253 million, only reducing the loss by approximately 9.08% year-on-year, with non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders showing a loss of RMB 263 million. The company's revenue has returned to growth, but the gross margin is only 2.63%, and the profitability inflection point has not yet been confirmed.

The company's main business is special steel and alloy materials, with capacity of 950,000 tonnes of special steel and 800,000 tonnes of steel products, and it possesses a relatively complete range of superalloys, ultra-high-strength steel, and multiple categories of special steel grades, as well as special smelting and forging capabilities. Superalloys are currently the segment with relatively better profit quality, accounting for 22.60% of revenue in the first half of 2026 with a gross margin of 9.94%; however, the gross margins of stainless steel, tool steel, and other products were -0.01%, -1.87%, and -6.67% respectively, and although the gross margin of alloy structural steel rose to 4.87%, the overall product mix is still insufficient to support stable profitability.

The 2025 loss was mainly related to declining downstream demand and selling prices, higher unit fixed costs due to lower-than-expected output after new projects were transferred to fixed assets, and increased quality costs. In the first half of 2026, output and revenue improved somewhat, and the second-quarter loss narrowed compared with the first quarter, but operating cash flow was still a net outflow of RMB 889 million, the debt-to-asset ratio rose to 58.55%, and net assets attributable to shareholders fell to RMB 5.261 billion, with financial and cash flow pressures still present.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price was RMB 4.64, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 9.151 billion and a dynamic price-to-book ratio of 1.74x; because the company is still loss-making, the price-to-earnings ratio metric is negative and of limited reference value. On the technical front, the share price fell 3.33% that day and broke below the 5-day moving average, and short-term technical indicators had previously been in overbought territory; RMB 4.52–4.60 is a recent support reference, and RMB 4.70–4.80 is a short-term resistance zone, but the relevant moving average data suffers from time lag and lacks cross-validation from a second source.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Superalloys (core profitable segment, 18.00% of 2025 revenue, gross margin 10.62%; 2026H1 revenue share rose to 22.60%, gross margin 9.94%)
• Ultra-high-strength steel (one of the "three highs and one special" core products, mainly used for aero engines, aircraft landing gear, rocket engine casings, etc.)
• Stainless steel (26.18% of 2025 revenue, gross margin 1.58%; 2026H1 revenue share 23.74%, gross margin -0.01%)
• Tool and die steel / tool steel (18.70% of 2025 revenue, gross margin -6.18%; 2026H1 revenue share 16.72%, gross margin -1.87%)
• Alloy structural steel (28.28% of 2025 revenue, gross margin 0.41%; 2026H1 revenue share 27.37%, gross margin 4.87%)
• Automotive steel (one of the product lines, specific revenue and gross margin data missing)
• Titanium alloy (one of the product lines, specific revenue and gross margin data missing)
• High-grade machinery steel (one of the product lines, specific revenue and gross margin data missing)
• Bearing steel (one of the product lines, specific revenue and gross margin data missing)
• Others (7.69% of 2025 revenue, gross margin -13.30%; 2026H1 revenue share 9.57%, gross margin -6.67%)

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream, and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

2026H1 data comes from the 2026 semi-annual report (disclosure date 2026-08-20); FY2025 annual report disclosure date 2026-03-31. 2026H1 non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders -RMB 263 million (prior-year period -RMB 282 million), basic/diluted earnings per share -RMB 0.1287, weighted average ROE -4.69% (another data source shows -4.80%, the difference in basis pending verification), gross margin 2.63% (+1.80 percentage points vs. the prior-year period), debt-to-asset ratio 58.55% (+5.41 percentage points vs. the prior-year period), net operating cash flow -RMB 889 million (prior-year period -RMB 961 million), total assets at end-June RMB 12.691 billion, net assets attributable to shareholders RMB 5.261 billion (net assets per share approximately RMB 2.67). FY2025 non-recurring -RMB 841 million, gross margin 0.65% (down approximately 12 pct YoY), net margin -10.34%, EPS -RMB 0.41; FY2024 non-recurring RMB 98 million (-72.38%). Main reasons for the FY2025 loss: declining downstream demand led to a simultaneous decline in orders and selling prices, new construction projects were transferred to fixed assets and put into production but actual output was below expectations, leading to higher unit fixed costs, and higher quality control requirements led to higher quality costs; full-year product sales profit was only RMB 20 million, a decrease of RMB 1.014 billion YoY. 2026H1 main business structure: steel product revenue RMB 4.118 billion (accounting for 98.14%, gross margin 2.33%); by product, alloy structural steel RMB 1.148 billion (gross margin 4.87%), stainless steel RMB 996 million (gross margin -0.01%), superalloys RMB 948 million (gross margin 9.94%, the only clearly profitable variety), tool steel RMB 702 million (gross margin -1.87%), others RMB 401 million (gross margin -6.67%). Data sources are exchange announcement summaries and third-party financial media (China Securities Journal, Jiemian News, Stockstar, East Money / Tonghuashun F10, etc.); the main figures have been cross-consistent across multiple sources; a few metrics differ in basis (ROE -4.69% vs -4.80%; Q2 net profit -RMB 106 million vs. the estimated value of -RMB 107 million), with minor differences.

The company's 2026H1 revenue returned to growth (+9.75% YoY), but it remains loss-making, with only the loss narrowing year-on-year, and the profitability inflection point has not yet been confirmed. 2025 was the first annual loss in recent years and was large in magnitude (net profit attributable to shareholders -RMB 805 million, turning to a loss YoY), mainly due to declining demand, higher unit fixed costs from lower-than-expected output after new projects were transferred to fixed assets, and higher quality costs. Although the 2026H1 gross margin recovered 1.80 percentage points YoY to 2.63%, the absolute level remains extremely low; by product, only superalloys (gross margin 9.94%) were clearly profitable, while the gross margins of stainless steel, tool steel, and other categories were negative, reflecting weak overall profit quality. The debt-to-asset ratio rose 5.41 percentage points YoY to 58.55%, operating cash flow remained a net outflow (-RMB 889 million), and net assets attributable to shareholders continued to be eroded by losses (net assets per share approximately RMB 2.67). Overall, the company is in a stage of narrowing losses but has not yet turned profitable, with capacity ramp-up and aerospace and defense demand being the core variables.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Very few institutions cover the stock (effective coverage of approximately 2-3), forecasts diverge greatly and most are outdated. Main sources: ① Tonghuashun consensus expectations (as of 2026-08-10, 3 institutions within 6 months), whose 2026E average net profit of RMB 313 million is clearly higher than the latest single research report basis (approximately RMB 70-80 million), suspected to be inflated by the inclusion of earlier high-base forecasts (e.g., Minsheng / Guotai Haitong's April 2025 forecast of RMB 440-460 million for 2026), and not recommended for direct citation; 2027/2028 have only 1 institution, with weak representativeness; ② latest forecasts from individual brokerages: CITIC Securities (Li Chao, Fu Chenshuo, Tang Chuanlin) forecast on 2026-04-29 2026E EPS RMB 0.04 / 2027E RMB 0.14 / 2028E RMB 0.15; Orient Securities (Liu Yang, Huang Yuyun) forecast on 2025-11-05 2026E EPS RMB 0.01 / 2027E RMB 0.21; ③ overseas aggregation (S&P Global single-analyst basis, republished via Simply Wall St / MarketScreener, last updated approximately 2026-04-30): 2026E revenue RMB 9.659 billion, net profit RMB 70 million, operating cash flow approximately -RMB 872 million; 2027E revenue RMB 10.515 billion, net profit RMB 276 million; 2028E revenue RMB 10.705 billion, net profit RMB 296 million; revenue CAGR of approximately 9.9% over the next 3 years, ROE approximately 4.7%. The mainstream/latest basis is roughly: 2026 near break-even or slight profit (net profit approximately RMB 70-80 million), 2027 recovery to approximately RMB 280-400 million, 2028 approximately RMB 300 million; capacity ramp-up and aerospace and defense demand are the core variables. Please treat this as a "single-institution / thin-coverage" view, not a multi-institution consensus.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of the close on 2026-09-11, the company's share price was RMB 4.64, down RMB 0.16 (-3.33%) that day, total share capital / circulating share capital 1.972 billion shares (fully circulating), total market capitalization / circulating market capitalization RMB 9.151 billion. Because the company is loss-making, the dynamic P/E -18.12, P/E (TTM) -11.74, and P/E (static) -11.37 are all negative and of limited reference value; price-to-book (PB) 1.74; price-to-sales (P/S) 2025A 1.18, TTM 1.12, 2026E 0.95, 2027E 0.87, 2028E 0.85. Forecast PE (East Money basis) 2026E 130.72, 2027E 33.15, 2028E 30.91, entirely dependent on assumptions about the pace of turning profitable, and are estimated values rather than disclosed data. The Tonghuashun iwencai page shows forecast P/E of 27.63/31.30/29.18 for 2026/2027/2028 respectively, very different from the East Money basis, because the two forecast net profit sets differ and both are built on thin forecasts for a loss-making stock; neither dataset should be relied upon alone, and it is advisable to build one's own scenario (e.g., based on 2027E net profit of RMB 280-400 million and 1.972 billion shares, the implied PE is approximately 23-33x). The 52-week price range is approximately RMB 3.74-8.26 (Investing.com basis; range data may include earlier points in time). Recent performance (East Money industry page basis, point in time approximately mid-2026): past 1 month +9.43%, past 3 months -1.07%, past 6 months -23.31%, year-to-date -20.55%; prior values for reference: 2026-09-09 close RMB 4.80, market capitalization RMB 9.466 billion, PE (dynamic) -18.74, PB 1.80. Regarding institutional target prices: the aggregated basis shows an average target price of RMB 6.98 (only 1 institution, Orient Securities), while Investing.com/stockanalysis.com shows 2 analysts' 12-month average target price of RMB 6.62 (high RMB 6.80, low RMB 6.44), consensus 'Strong Buy', but the sample is only 2 and is not a robust consensus. Special note: the vast majority of ratings were published in 2025, before the large 2025 annual report loss and 2026H1 actual operations were reflected, and the target price range of RMB 6.3-7 essentially remains at a "2025 perspective", with poor timeliness; the company is currently loss-making, and PE-type data among valuation metrics is of limited reference value, and the actual value of the PB valuation denominator (2026H1 net assets per share approximately RMB 2.67) differs from Orient Securities' forecast 2026 RMB 3.02 per share, due to continued losses eroding net assets; actual values and forecast values must be distinguished; price/valuation data is as of the 2026-09-11 close, and market-type figures fluctuate daily, so please note the point in time when citing.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Semi-Annual Earnings Pre-Loss Announcement

The company disclosed the 2026 semi-annual earnings pre-loss announcement on the evening of 2026-07-10 / 07-11 (Lin 2026-035). It is expected that the 2026 semi-annual net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company will be -RMB 270 million to -RMB 230 million; and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be -RMB 280 million to -RMB 240 million. Prior-year period (2025H1): total profit -RMB 283.34 million; net profit attributable to shareholders -RMB 277.73 million; non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders -RMB 282.35 million; earnings per share -RMB 0.1415. Reasons for the pre-loss (original announcement text): the steel industry's "ordinary to premium, premium to special" capacity optimization, intensifying competition in mid-to-high-end special steel, reduction of low-end capacity, and accelerated release of high-end capacity; intensifying competition in the company's core products; weak demand in traditional fields such as fuel vehicles; slower thermal power and volatile wind power in the energy system; some capacity from emerging industry layout has not yet been fully released, and economies of scale have not been realized. The announcement explicitly states that the data has not been audited by an accounting firm and is subject to the subsequent formal semi-annual report. Basis note: Cailianshe / Stockstar estimate on this basis a Q2 2026 single-quarter loss of approximately RMB 84-124 million, Q1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders -RMB 146 million (this Q1 data comes from Tongbi Finance / Stockstar transcription, a media estimate basis, not a directly verified official quarterly report).

4.2 Formal Disclosure of the 2026 Semi-Annual Report

The eighth meeting of the ninth board of directors was held on 2026-08-19, reviewing and approving the "Company 2026 Semi-Annual Report and Report Summary" and the "Proposal on Revising the 〈Company Board Secretary Management System〉", both proposals with 9 votes in favor, 0 against, 0 abstentions; the full semi-annual report was disclosed on the SSE website on 2026-08-20 (Lin 2026-036). Uncertainty note: this search was unable to obtain the final actual figures of the semi-annual report (only the board resolution and the pre-loss range were seen). To write in "actual net profit/revenue", the semi-annual report text disclosed on the SSE on 2026-08-20 must be the basis, and this summary does not accept any second-hand transcribed actual figures for now.

4.3 Key Points of the 2025 Annual Report (Comparative Background)

The 2025 annual report was disclosed on 2026-03-31. 2025: steel output 657,100 tonnes (+8.81% YoY); steel product output 475,600 tonnes (+7.81%); "three highs and one special" products warehoused 91,500 tonnes (+5.43%). Operating revenue RMB 7.783 billion (-8.26% YoY); net profit -RMB 805 million (turned from profit to loss). Sources: China Securities Journal e-paper; Tongbi Finance transcribed net profit attributable to shareholders -820.76% YoY, ROE -13.58% (media basis).

4.4 Change of Name of Controlling Shareholder

The controlling shareholder "Jiangsu Shagang Group Co., Ltd." changed its name to "Shagang Holding Group Co., Ltd.", completed the industrial and commercial change registration and obtained a new business license (Lin 2026-039, disclosed on the evening of 2026-09-02 / 09-03). The announcement explicitly states: it does not involve changes in shareholding, does not involve changes in the control structure, the controlling shareholder and actual controller have not changed, and it does not affect corporate governance and operating activities.

4.5 Partial Tender Offer by Jincheng Shazhou (2025 Event, Continuing Supervision Extended into 2026)

On 2025-08-07, the "Tender Offer Report" was disclosed: Ningbo Meishan Bonded Port Area Jincheng Shazhou Equity Investment Co., Ltd. issued a partial tender offer to all shareholders other than itself and its concert parties, for 98,605,000 shares (5% of total share capital), at a price of RMB 5.60 per share, with the offer period from 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-10. Result (2025-09-12 announcement): 366 shareholder accounts pre-accepted the offer, with 19,893,572 shares pre-accepted, accounting for only 1.01% of total share capital, clearly not fully subscribed (substantially undersubscribed). Clearing and transfer completed on 2025-09-15 (2025-09-17 announcement). Continuing supervision period: 2025-08-07 to 2026-09-15. Financial advisor Shenwan Hongyuan Underwriting and Sponsorship issued the "2026 Second Quarter Continuing Supervision Opinion" on 2026-08-28, concluding that during the continuing supervision period the offeror and its concert parties, and the listed company operated in compliance and did not violate public commitments. Interpretation/uncertainty points: the offer price of RMB 5.60 per share vs. the secondary market price during the period (e.g., 2026-07-10 close RMB 4.13, 2026-09-02 close RMB 4.46); the offer price was significantly higher than the market price yet only 1.01% was pre-accepted, reflecting low participation by minority shareholders; whether there will be further increases in holdings / tender actions, as of this document no new disclosure has been seen.

4.6 Shareholder Structure (Basis Requires Attention)

As of 2026-03-31: Jiangsu Shagang Group 15.43%, Northeast Special Steel Group 13.99%, Ningbo Meishan Bonded Port Area Jincheng Shazhou 1.59%, Hong Kong Central Clearing 1.15%, Fullgoal CSI Military Industry Leading ETF 0.99% (source: etnet, field updated 31/12/2025, shareholding date 31/03/2026). Separately, Tonghuashun F10 shows Shagang Group holding 15.55% (actual controller Shen Bin 10.95%). The two Shagang shareholding ratios are inconsistent (15.43% vs 15.55%), which is a difference in point in time/basis, and the latest periodic report must be the basis before accepting.

4.7 Announcement on Conducting a Special Corporate Governance Review

The company disclosed the "Announcement on Conducting a Special Corporate Governance Review" on the evening of 2026-09-08 / 09-09 (Lin 2026-040): the company's board audit committee will engage an independent third-party audit institution with securities and futures-related business qualifications to conduct a special review of matters related to corporate governance. As of the announcement date, the review is still in the preparation stage, and the audit committee is advancing the selection of the third-party institution and will supervise throughout. Uncertainty/points of concern: the announcement only states "to enhance the company's corporate governance capabilities and give play to the supervisory role of the audit committee", without explaining the specific reason triggering the review. Such special reviews usually warrant attention as to whether there are matters to be clarified at the corporate governance/internal control level, but there is currently no public information indicating regulatory penalties or inquiries, and it should not be over-interpreted.

4.8 Proposed Absorption Merger of Wholly Owned Subsidiary Shilin Special Steel

The company proposes to absorb and merge its wholly owned subsidiary Fushun Shilin Special Steel Co., Ltd. (2026-06-16 announcement); the board reviewed and approved it on 2026-06-15. After completion, Shilin Special Steel's legal personality will be deregistered, and all its assets, claims and debts, personnel, and business will be inherited by the company; it does not involve a change in registered capital, does not constitute a related-party transaction, and does not constitute a major asset restructuring; because Shilin Special Steel is already within the consolidated statement scope, the announcement states there is no substantive impact on financial position and operating results, and the purpose is to optimize the management structure and reduce management costs.

4.9 Bid-Winning Announcement (Small Amount, for Reference Only)

On 2026-09-08, it was disclosed that the company won the bid for the "Guizhou Anda Aviation Forging Co., Ltd." round steel 0Cr13Ni8Mo2Al procurement project, with a bid-winning amount of only RMB 1.62 million (source: Tongbi Finance / Qichacha transcription, 2026-09-08). The amount is small and has no substantive impact on the company's performance, but the direction is consistent with special steel for aviation forging. The same transcription also gives 2025 revenue of RMB 7.783 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 805 million (consistent with the foregoing, which can serve as cross-confirmation).

4.10 Share Repurchase (Historical Matter, Completed in 2024)

The board approved the repurchase plan on 2024-10-30: amount RMB 70-100 million, price ceiling RMB 8.5 per share, purpose equity incentives, source of funds own funds + CITIC Bank Fushun Branch repurchase special loan (limit not exceeding RMB 100 million). Actual execution: first repurchase of 1,002,800 shares on 2024-11-07; completed on 2024-11-22, with a cumulative repurchase of 10,031,900 shares (0.51% of total share capital), transaction price RMB 6.50-7.50 per share, total payment of approximately RMB 70.0047 million. The company is described as the first A-share listed company to complete a repurchase using "own funds + repurchase special loan". Timeliness note: this is a 2024 matter and is not "recent", but the company on 2026-06-10 on the investor interaction platform still cited "share repurchase, major shareholder tender offer" as market value management levers in response to share price concerns.

4.11 Industry/Policy Background

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" in 2025: setting the steel industry's average annual value-added growth target for 2025-2026 at around 4%, emphasizing excessive total supply and insufficient effective demand; requiring focus on enhancing high-end product supply (high-performance bearing steel, gear steel, superalloys, tool and die steel, etc.). The company is included in sectors such as "anti-involution concept", "commercial aerospace", and "military industry". Sources: East Money F10 core themes; the company's 2025 annual report (cnstock).

4.12 Market-Side Reference Figures (For Comparison Only)

2026-09-02 close RMB 4.46 (National Business Daily); 2026-07-10 close RMB 4.13 (National Business Daily); a Sina market page shows around 2026-09-09 reporting RMB 4.76 (+5.08%). Market capitalization bases are inconsistent: etnet shows approximately RMB 8.697 billion (field updated 31/12/2025); aastocks shows approximately RMB 9.387 billion (update date 2026/09/08). The two cannot be directly compared and real-time quotes must be the basis before use.

4.13 Uncertainties/Limitations Requiring Key Flagging

1. The actual data of the 2026 semi-annual report was not obtained: only the fact of "disclosure on 2026-08-20" and the July pre-loss range (-RMB 230 million to -RMB 270 million) are confirmed. Any statement citing "actual net profit/revenue" must be verified against the SSE semi-annual report text. 2. The reason triggering the special corporate governance review is unknown: the announcement did not disclose the cause, and it is impossible to judge whether it involves internal control/information disclosure defects; it should not be equated with punitive regulatory news. 3. Shagang's shareholding ratio is inconsistent in two places (15.43% vs 15.55%), and the high ratio of the tender offer "only 1.01% of the 5% target" being undersubscribed needs to be understood in conjunction with the market price at the time, and no subsequent increase-in-holdings announcement has been seen. 4. The sporadic bid-winning amount is extremely small (RMB 1.62 million), from a single second-hand source (Tongbi Finance / Qichacha transcription), and is only of reference significance. 5. Time basis: this summary is limited to disclosures visible as of approximately 2026-09-09; if the current point in time is later, new announcements after mid-September must be supplemented (especially the progress of the special corporate governance review and related disclosures after the tender offer continuing supervision period expires on 2026-09-15). 6. Some financial figures (such as the 2025 annual report YoY -820.76%, ROE -13.58%, EBIT, etc.) come from financial media transcriptions and not all from the original official announcement text; it is recommended to note "media basis" when citing.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the close on September 11, 2026, Fushun Special Steel closed at RMB 4.64, down 3.33% on the day, breaking below the 5-day moving average that day, ending the sideways trading in the RMB 4.76-4.80 range on September 8-10. The current price is in the lower-middle of the 52-week range (RMB 3.74-8.26), approximately +24% from the 52-week low and approximately -44% from the 52-week high; in terms of period performance, 1 month shows a slight positive return (+5.10%/+8.59%), but the 6-month to 1-year horizon is still clearly negative (6 months approximately -36.76%, 1 year approximately -16.13% to -18.53%). On technical indicators, only one set of data from Investing.com was obtained (timestamp 2026-09-08, price at the time RMB 4.76), showing a bullish alignment of moving averages and a signal summary of Strong Buy, but RSI(14) (78.612), STOCHRSI(14) (94.136), and Williams %R (-7.895) are all in overbought territory, indicating short-term overheating at the time; this data has a time lag relative to the September 11 close and lacks cross-validation from a second source. Fundamental valuation is negative because both the 2025 annual report and 2026 interim report were losses (dynamic P/E -18.12, TTM -11.74, static -11.37), and the dynamic PB is 1.74. The exact trading days of the 52-week high of RMB 8.26 and low of RMB 3.74 could not be confirmed, and the time inferences given in the summary (low around mid-2026, high around late 2025 to early 2026) are back-inferences based on period returns, not confirmed.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario projection based on existing technical data, does not constitute investment advice, and does not constitute any buy/sell operation instruction.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Sideways consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 60% (subjective judgment, not statistical probability)): the price repeatedly digests within the RMB 4.52-4.80 range, fluctuating around the MA5/MA20 area. Trigger conditions: no new news catalysts, turnover maintained at recent normal levels (approximately RMB 200 million or so), and the broader market and special steel sector overall stable. Under this scenario, the September 11 pullback is viewed as a normal technical correction after the previous rapid rise.
• Weaker downside (medium weight (subjective judgment, not statistical probability)): if the first support zone of RMB 4.52-4.60 is broken and cannot be quickly recovered, combined with expanded turnover, the price may seek support toward MA50 (RMB 4.45) or even MA200 (RMB 4.22). Trigger conditions: weakness in the special steel/military industry sector, broader market correction, or negative news disturbances. A further break below the strong support of RMB 4.22-4.45 would open the space toward the 52-week low of RMB 3.74.
• Rebound strengthening (relatively low weight (subjective judgment, not statistical probability)): if the price re-takes the RMB 4.70-4.80 resistance zone and breaks through with volume, then after the earlier overbought indicators are digested through the correction, the short-term rebound structure is expected to continue. Trigger conditions: strength in the sectors to which it belongs such as special steel/commercial aerospace/military industry, the emergence of substantive catalyst news, and single-day turnover clearly higher than recent normal levels (see the volume confirmation signal below).

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

In terms of liquidity, on September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was 2.26%, turnover was RMB 208 million, and volume was 446,100 lots; total share capital and circulating share capital are both 1.972 billion shares (fully circulating), and total market capitalization and circulating market capitalization are both RMB 9.151 billion, a fully circulating target with no additional selling pressure variable from lock-up expiration. The capital flow information mentioned in the research summary includes: September 8 main funds net bought RMB 27.3619 million (Stockstar), another same-day turnover of RMB 33.1828 million, main net inflow of RMB 629,300, and another entry with main funds net outflow of RMB 4.4037 million and turnover of RMB 91.5281 million (the above capital flow data differ in date and basis, and care should be taken to distinguish when using). Regarding the concentration of the top ten shareholders and the institutional holding structure of public funds/social security/QFII, this research summary does not provide verified specific values (although there are links to shareholder structure pages such as Tonghuashun, Sina Finance, and Longbridge Securities, the actual shareholding ratios and institutional lists are not listed in the summary), so no judgment can be made on chip concentration and institutional holding structure, and the relevant data is missing. Based on the available data, the stock is a small-cap target (approximately RMB 9.15 billion) with a medium-to-low turnover rate (2.26%), relatively limited bid-ask depth, and possible slippage on large transactions; this is only an objective description based on existing data.

If single-day turnover continues to expand above recent normal levels (approximately RMB 200 million), for example, continuously expanding to above RMB 300 million, this can be regarded as a confirmation signal of capital participation; conversely, if the price rebounds but turnover continues to be below RMB 200 million, the sustainability of the rebound needs to be discounted (this is only an observation approach, not an operation instruction).

④ Points of Focus (Only an Observation Approach, Not an Operation Instruction)

• Watch whether the RMB 4.70-4.80 short-term resistance zone can be effectively broken, and whether the breakout is accompanied by expanded turnover (observation approach, not an operation instruction).
• Watch the gain or loss of the first support zone of RMB 4.52-4.60: if broken and not quickly recovered, the short-term structure weakens, and the strong support zone formed by MA50 (RMB 4.45) and MA200 (RMB 4.22) is the reference below (observation approach, not an operation instruction).
• Watch turnover changes: whether single-day turnover continues to expand to above RMB 300 million (capital participation signal), or continues to be below RMB 200 million (rebound sustainability in doubt) (observation approach, not an operation instruction).
• Watch the overall movement and news catalysts of the sectors to which it belongs, such as special steel, military industry, and commercial aerospace, as a reference for scenario-switching trigger conditions (observation approach, not an operation instruction).

The above scenario projection is based on the September 11, 2026 close data and historical prices and technical indicator calculations (some technical indicators timestamped 2026-09-08); short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital flows, and the broader market environment; technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future trends, and do not constitute buy/sell advice; please make independent judgments in conjunction with the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Warnings

• Risk of continued earnings falling short of expectations: the company's 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of RMB 805 million, and the first half of 2026 was still a loss of RMB 253 million, with an overall gross margin of only 2.63%; if revenue growth cannot be converted into gross margin improvement, the annual profit recovery may continue to be delayed.
• Product mix and gross margin risk: in the first half of 2026, the gross margins of stainless steel, tool steel, and other products were -0.01%, -1.87%, and -6.67% respectively; although superalloys are the main profitable variety, their gross margin also fell from 10.62% in 2025 to 9.94%, and the support of a single high-gross-margin segment for overall profitability remains limited.
• Capacity ramp-up and fixed cost risk: after the company's new projects were transferred to fixed assets, actual output was once below expectations, leading to higher unit fixed costs; if the release of capacity related to emerging industries still falls short of expectations, insufficient capacity utilization may continue to depress profit margins.
• Cash flow and financial leverage risk: in the first half of 2026, net operating cash flow was -RMB 889 million, the debt-to-asset ratio was 58.55%, and net assets attributable to shareholders were eroded by continued losses; if losses and cash outflows continue, financial flexibility may further decline.
• Demand and competition risk: the company's announcement points out intensifying mid-to-high-end competition in special steel, accelerated release of high-end capacity, weak demand for traditional fuel vehicles, and fluctuations in energy system-related demand; these factors may simultaneously affect the company's orders, selling prices, and product profitability.
• Governance and information disclosure uncertainty risk: the company has launched a special corporate governance review, but as of the available data, the review is still in the preparation stage and the specific reason has not been disclosed; subsequent review results and related disclosures may bring fluctuations in operations and market expectations.
• Earnings forecast and valuation distortion risk: the company is still loss-making, and the P/E ratio is negative; the 2026 earnings forecast ranges from approximately RMB 70-80 million to a consensus average of RMB 313 million, with few covering institutions and some forecasts being older; if the pace of turning profitable is below expectations, valuation judgments based on future earnings may deviate significantly.
• Short-term share price volatility risk: as of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 4.64, having broken below the 5-day moving average, and previously RSI, STOCHRSI, and Williams %R were all in overbought territory; if the RMB 4.52-4.60 support zone is lost, the technical trend may further weaken, and the relevant technical indicators also suffer from time lag and insufficient cross-validation.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company's medium- to long-term growth logic mainly comes from an increased share of high-end products such as superalloys and ultra-high-strength steel, as well as improved demand related to aerospace and defense. In the first half of 2026, the revenue share of superalloys rose to 22.60%, and the gross margin of alloy structural steel improved, showing that product mix adjustment has had some effect; if emerging industry capacity is gradually released, output ramps up, and high-end demand recovers, revenue growth and lower unit fixed costs may drive a profit recovery.

However, the current recovery is still in the verification stage. In the first half of 2026, revenue growth has not yet translated into profit growth; apart from superalloys, the profitability of several major products is weak, operating cash flow continues to be a net outflow, and the 2026-2028 earnings forecasts have few covering institutions and large forecast divergence, and cannot be regarded as a robust consensus. Going forward, the focus should be on the gross margin, capacity utilization, and order fulfillment of superalloys and other high-end products, as well as whether the company can continue to reduce losses and improve cash flow.

The company recently conducted a special corporate governance review, but the announcement did not disclose the specific trigger reason; the change of name of the controlling shareholder does not involve a change of control, and the absorption merger of the wholly owned subsidiary is expected to have no substantive impact on financial position and operating results. Overall, the company has special steel and superalloy technology, equipment, and grade reserves, but the fundamentals still depend on demand recovery, capacity ramp-up, quality cost control, and the progress of turning profitable, and valuation judgments are also highly dependent on future assumptions about turning profitable.

Data Sources

• Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH) Core Themes - PC_HSF10 Data - Core Themes
• Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH)
• China Securities Journal - Fushun Special Steel Co., Ltd. - | Page B121: Information Disclosure | Previous Next
• 600399 Fushun Special Steel
• Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH) - US Stocks
• Fushun Special Steel (SH600399) Business Analysis - PC_HSF10 Data
• Fushun Special Steel Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report Summary - April 12, 2025 E-paper
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) Company Profile - Market Center - Hexun
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) Capital Flows_Individual Stock Quotes_Tonghuashun Finance
• Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH) In-depth F9 - PC_HSF9 Data
• 600399 Fushun Special Steel - Main Business Scope
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) 2026 Semi-Annual Management Discussion and Analysis - Fushun Special Steel (600399) 2026 Semi-Annual Management Discussion and Analysis
• Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH) Core Themes - PC_HSF10 Data - Core Themes
• Fushun Special Steel (600399)_Operating Summary_CFI.CN
• Fushun Special Steel (600399)_Company Announcements_Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina - 4. Stainless steel In 1952, the company produced China's first heat of austenitic stainless steel. After more than 70 years of development, the company has formed EAF+LF+VOD/VHD, VIM+VAR, VIM+ESR, UHP+AOD+LF+VD+ESR, UHP+AOD+LF+VD, EAF+LF+VOD/VHD+ESR, etc...
• 600399 Fushun Special Steel - Core Themes
• Shanghai and Shenzhen Company Announcement Titles - Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report - March 31, 2026 - Tonghuashun
• Eagle Eye Warning: Fushun Special Steel's accounts receivable growth rate higher than operating revenue growth rate - Eagle Eye Warning: Fushun Special Steel's accounts receivable growth rate higher than operating revenue growth rate
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) Main Business Operating Analysis Query | Chaguwang.cn - Chaguwang.cn - Chaguwang.China
• Research Report List - CITIC Securities - April 29, 2026 - Tonghuashun
• Fushun Special Steel (600399)_Company Announcements_Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina - Total | 39,307,755.79 | 9,680,652.42 | 471,372.08 | 48,517,036.13
• Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report Summary - Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report Summary
• Fushun Special Steel: Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report - Annual Report - Periodic Reports - Hibor Investment Research - Fushun Special Steel: Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report
• [[Financial Report]: Fushun Special Steel: Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report - Find Reports - Fushun Special Steel: Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report](https://www.fxbaogao.com/detail/5325824#1)
• Fushun Special Steel - Fushun Special Steel
• Fushun Special Steel: 2025 Annual Report_Jiufang Zhitou - Global Index
• [[Industry In-Depth] Insight 2026: China Superalloy Industry Competitive Landscape and Market Share (with Market Concentration, Enterprise Competitiveness Evaluation, etc.) - Stockstar](https://4g.stockstar.com/detail/IG2026060100004042)
• [[Most Comprehensive] 2026 Superalloy Industry Listed Companies All-Round Comparison (with Business Layout Summary, Performance Comparison, Business Planning, etc.) - Stockstar](https://wap.stockstar.com/detail/IG2026062300019922)
• http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-06-23/doc-iniekqur9686291.shtml.md
• [[Industry In-Depth] Insight 2026: China Superalloy Industry Competitive Landscape and Market Share (with Market Concentration, Enterprise Competitiveness Evaluation, etc.)](https://q.stock.sohu.com/cn/news.html?textId=1018657971&tab=120&type=120&code=cn_300034&date=2026/0601)
• [2026 China Superalloy Industry Development Status: Capacity Release and Demand Gap Coexist [Charts] - Stockstar](https://4g.stockstar.com/detail/IG2026082000016455)
• [2026 China Superalloy Industry Development Status: Capacity Release and Demand Gap Coexist [Charts] - Report Service Hotline 400-068-7188](https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/260819-e2b055cb.html#1)
• [[Most Comprehensive] 2026 Superalloy Industry Listed Companies All-Round Comparison (with Business Layout Summary, Performance Comparison, Business Planning, etc.) - Report Service Hotline 400-068-7188](https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/260617-a63cd393.html#1)
• [[Most Comprehensive] 2026 Superalloy Industry Listed Companies All-Round Comparison (with Business Layout Summary, Performance Comparison, Business Planning, etc.) - Sina Finance Client](https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffinance.sina.com.cn%2Froll%2F2026-06-23%2Fdoc-iniekqur9686291.shtml&from=redirect&autocallup=no&isfromsina=no#1)
• Superalloy Industry In-Depth: Cost Reversion, Striving for Excellence, Awaiting Profit Improvement
• 2025 China Superalloy Industry Enterprise Competitive Echelon — by Capacity
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• Fushun Special Steel (600399) Historical Changes in Sales Gross Margin - Valuation Pointer - Featured Data - Stockstar
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• Fangda Special Steel Technology Co Ltd (600507) Income Statement - Investing.com ZA - Fangda Special Steel Technology Co Ltd (600507)
• SH.600399 Fushun Special Steel FUSHUN STEEL - A-Share Real-Time Quote RT Quote - Company Information Company Information
• Fangda Special Steel Technology (SHA:600507) Income Statement - Fangda Special Steel Technology Co
• Fushun Special Steel: Total Operating Revenue of RMB 7.783 Billion in 2025 - Fushun Special Steel: Total Operating Revenue of RMB 7.783 Billion in 2025
• Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH): 2026 Interim Report Net Profit -RMB 253 Million
• Fushun Special Steel 2025 Annual Visualized Financial Report
• Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH) 2026 Interim Report Net Profit -RMB 253 Million, YoY Loss Narrowed - Now Reading:
• Fushun Special Steel Co., Ltd. Reply Announcement on the SSE Information Disclosure Regulatory Inquiry Letter Regarding the Company's 2025 Annual Report - May 19, 2026 E-paper
• Fushun Special Steel 2025 Net Loss RMB 805 Million, YoY Turn to Loss
• Fushun Special Steel: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Summary
• Fushun Special Steel: H1 Net Loss RMB 253 Million, YoY Loss Narrowed
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) September 10 Main Funds Net Sell RMB 19.2189 Million - Stockstar
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) Performance Overview_Data Center_East Money
• Institutional Investment Ratings - Stocks - Sina Finance - Stock Rating Records
• Fushun Special Steel (600399)_Individual Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Chart_News_Stock Reviews_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) 2024 Annual Report Review: Advancing Cost Reduction and Efficiency Enhancement, Product Structure Continues to Optimize
• Fushun Special Steel Co Ltd Consensus Estimates (600399) - Investing.com
• Fushun Special Steel (600399) 2025 Q3 Report Review: Short-Term Profit Under Pressure, High-End Products Expected to Drive Mid-Term Profit Recovery
• Fushun Special Steel Co.,LTD. (SHA:600399) Stock Forecast & Price Targets - Fushun Special Steel Co
• Institutional Ratings | CITIC Securities Gives Fushun Special Steel a "Buy" Rating
• | Gross Margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
• Combining Intuition, Fundamentals, Institutional Estimates, and Objective Complete Market Analysis on Whether Fushun Special Steel Will Directly Hit RMB 7 in One Go 1. RMB 7_Caifuhao_East Money
• 600399 Fushun Special Steel
• Earnings Forecast - Stock Data - Data Center
• Fushun Special SteelLTD (SHSE:600399) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
• Fushun Special Steel Co.,LTD.: Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations | 600399 | CNE0000016F7 | MarketScreener India - bb6f
• Fushun Special SteelLTD (SHSE:600399) Pronósticos de acciones y predicción de analistas - Simply Wall St - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
• [Fushun Special