Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. (600549)

Equity Research Report | Sector: Non-ferrous Metals/Minor Metals (Tungsten/Rare Earth) | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Friday, 2026-09-11 Close 15:30 (research note data cutoff; prices based on cross-verified multi-source consensus)

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Xiamen Tungsten's 1H26 results accelerated significantly: operating revenue reached RMB 35.014 billion, up 81.70% YoY; net profit attributable to parent reached RMB 2.201 billion, up 127.04% YoY; non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent reached RMB 2.055 billion, up 122.81% YoY, with single-half-year net profit attributable to parent already approaching the full-year 2025 level. Earnings growth was primarily driven by rising tungsten prices, photovoltaic tungsten wire and cutting tool volume ramp-up, resource M&A and high-end capacity expansion; however, operating cash flow for the period was RMB -2.46 billion, accounts receivable rose to RMB 10.387 billion, and asset impairment provisions of RMB 1.278 billion were recognized, presenting a profile of "high profit growth but cash flow and asset quality under pressure."

The company has formed three major business pillars: tungsten-molybdenum, energy new materials, and rare earth. In 1H26, the tungsten-molybdenum segment generated revenue of RMB 16.151 billion with a gross margin of 36.79%; energy new materials revenue was RMB 14.488 billion with a gross margin of 8.29%; rare earth revenue was RMB 4.355 billion with a gross margin of 11.51%. The tungsten-molybdenum segment has the strongest profitability and growth elasticity, while new energy materials contribute larger revenue scale but relatively lower margins. The company also acquired a 69% stake in Jiujiang Dadi Mining Development Co., Ltd. and a 70% stake in Yuanxing Precision Tools, and through the acquisition of a 30.1683% stake in Jiangxi Jutong and a concerted-action arrangement, achieved de facto control over the operating entity of the Dahutang tungsten mine, which is expected to strengthen resource security and downstream tool capabilities.

Market expectations for the company's forward earnings are generally optimistic but with notable divergence. The consensus mean of 7 institutions for 2026 net profit attributable to parent is RMB 4.704 billion, with a forecast range of RMB 4.117 billion to RMB 5.182 billion; different brokers' 2026 revenue forecasts range from RMB 69.82 billion to RMB 93.6 billion, with the main differences stemming from assumptions about tungsten prices, the timing of the Dahutang tungsten mine injection, and capacity ramp-up progress. The currently verifiable closing price on September 11, 2026 is RMB 48.79, with a dynamic PE of 17.60x, PE(TTM) of 21.88x, and price-to-book ratio of 4.14x, but valuations have already been significantly re-rated by tungsten prices and earnings expectations.

On the technical front, the stock price has retraced approximately 50% from its late-June 2026 high of around RMB 94.50, closing at RMB 48.79 on September 11, below the self-calculated MA5 of approximately RMB 49.89 and the estimated 20-day moving average zone of RMB 52.5 to 53.5; MACD, RSI, and some capital flow indicators are weak, with the average chip cost at approximately RMB 56.96, indicating significant short-term trapped positions. Currently, RMB 47.3 to 48.0 is the first support zone provided by data providers, RMB 43.0 to 44.0 is the box-type support reference, and RMB 50.5 to 51.0 is the short-term resistance zone, but some moving averages and indicator values are missing, and technical judgments are subject to data coverage limitations.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Tungsten-molybdenum and other non-ferrous metal products: Full industry chain (tungsten ore mining and processing → tungsten-molybdenum smelting → tungsten-molybdenum powder → cemented carbide → tungsten-molybdenum wire/cutting tools → secondary resource recycling); 1H26 revenue of RMB 16.15 billion, accounting for 46.13%, gross margin 36.79%
• Battery materials (energy new materials/lithium battery cathodes): Operated by controlled subsidiary XTC New Energy (688778), including lithium cobalt oxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, hydrogen energy materials (hydrogen storage alloys), etc.; 1H26 revenue of RMB 14.49 billion, accounting for 41.38%, gross margin 8.29%
• Rare earth: "Front-end strategic equity investment in mines/smelting and separation + back-end self-controlled high value-added deep processing"; 1H26 revenue of RMB 4.355 billion, accounting for 12.44%, gross margin 11.51%
• Real estate and supporting: Minimal proportion and long-term losses; 1H26 revenue of RMB 20.9 million, accounting for 0.06%, gross margin -4.70%

2.3 Industry Chain Position and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

1H26 data are from the company's interim report originally disclosed on 2026-08-20 (cross-verified across multiple sources including China Securities Journal, Securities Times, Sina Finance, and China Galaxy research report); non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent was RMB 2.055 billion, +122.81% YoY; basic earnings per share RMB 1.3862, with a proposed dividend of RMB 4.2 per 10 shares. China Post Securities (2026-09-05) stated revenue +82.58% YoY and net profit attributable to parent +126.37%, slightly different from the mainstream basis (+81.70%/+127.04%), possibly due to different retrospective adjustment bases; this table uses the original annual report basis. Important note: 1H26 consolidated net profit was RMB 3.176 billion (+124.79% YoY, per etnet/Huaxi Securities F10), and the difference of approximately RMB 970 million from net profit attributable to parent of RMB 2.201 billion represents minority interest (XTC New Energy, etc.); when citing, "net profit" and "net profit attributable to parent" must be distinguished. FY2025 data are from etnet (revenue RMB 46.265 billion) and Guosen Securities research report (net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.31 billion), respectively; the two sources corroborate each other but are not from the same original announcement, and final confirmation should be based on the company's 2025 annual report. The 2025-01-22 earnings flash report had provided preliminary data of FY2024 revenue RMB 35.271 billion and net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.740 billion (+8.60%), which was slightly adjusted in the final annual report.

1H26 results grew strongly, with revenue of RMB 35.014 billion, +81.70% YoY; net profit attributable to parent of RMB 2.201 billion, +127.04% YoY; non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent of RMB 2.055 billion, +122.81% YoY; basic earnings per share RMB 1.3862. Single 2026Q2 revenue was RMB 19.271 billion (+77.59% YoY, +22.41% QoQ), net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.094 billion (+86.51% YoY, -1.16% QoQ); single Q1 net profit attributable to parent was approximately RMB 1.11 billion (estimated by Guosen Securities, +183.1% YoY), with Q2 slightly declining QoQ. Previously, the 2025 Q3 report showed first three quarters revenue of RMB 32.001 billion (+21.36%), net profit attributable to parent of RMB 1.782 billion (+27.05%), single Q3 net profit attributable to parent of RMB 810 million (+109.85%), already showing acceleration; FY2025 full-year net profit attributable to parent was RMB 2.31 billion (+33.6%), and 1H26 single-half-year net profit attributable to parent of RMB 2.201 billion has already approached the full-year 2025 level, with earnings growth significantly stepping up. The high growth was mainly related to rising tungsten prices, photovoltaic tungsten wire volume ramp-up, resource M&A, and high-end capacity expansion. Note that the consolidated net profit basis differs significantly from the attributable-to-parent basis, with minority interest of approximately RMB 970 million.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Forecast data sources: Tonghuashun iFinD multi-broker consensus (as of 2026-08-27, covering 7 institutions over the past 6 months; 2026 net profit attributable to parent maximum RMB 5.182 billion, minimum RMB 4.117 billion, mean RMB 4.704 billion, should be labeled as "arithmetic mean of 7 institutions"); Guotai Haitong (Li Pengfei/Liu Xiaohua, 2026-08-25, EPS significantly raised from previous RMB 1.99/2.19); Sinolink Securities (Wu Jinkai/Wang Qinyang/Su Chen, 2026-07-28, initial coverage with "Buy"); Guosen Securities (2026-05-08, "Outperform"/initial coverage); CICC (Wang Changzhou et al., 2026-08-27, "Outperform"); Pacific Securities (Liu Qiang/Liang Biguo, 2026-06); China Galaxy (Hua Li/Yan Yulu, 2026-08-25); Guolian Minsheng (Qiu Zuxue, 2026-08-27); Changjiang Securities (Wang Hetao, 2026-08-25). Note: Broker forecasts diverge significantly (2026 net profit attributable to parent range RMB 4.117-5.182 billion, span exceeding 25%), mainly due to differing judgments on tungsten price assumptions, Dahutang tungsten mine injection timing, and capacity ramp-up progress; revenue forecast divergence is especially large (Sinolink RMB 69.82 billion vs Guosen RMB 93.6 billion), and these are single-broker bases that are not directly comparable; some brokers did not disclose revenue or EPS forecasts, and data gaps have been truthfully marked in the table.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

Current valuation levels (data date-sensitive): CICC estimates (2026-08-27) current stock price corresponds to 2026-2027e 20x/17x PE (derived from their net profit attributable to parent forecasts of RMB 4.12/5.01 billion, current price approximately in the RMB 52-53 range); Guosen estimates (2026-05-08, report-date stock price RMB 58.74), 2026-2028e PE of 19.7x/16.8x/15.0x. Stock price snapshot: 2026-07-30 close RMB 45.0 (that day -5.00%); 2026-07-28 report date RMB 50.20 (Sinolink); 2026-08-21 approximately RMB 50.63 (+1.26%). Total shares approximately 1.588 billion (1,587,585,800 shares), total market cap approximately RMB 80 billion based on RMB 50.63. PB/net assets per share: 1H26 net assets per share approximately RMB 11.77 (Huaxi Securities F10), PB approximately 4.3x based on RMB 50 stock price; 2024 annual report net assets per share attributable to parent RMB 10.03. Institutional ratings and target prices: Over the past 6 months (as of 2026-08-27), 7 institutions covered, 3 "Buy", 2 "Recommend", 1 "Overweight", 1 "Outperform", no sell/neutral ratings, consensus leaning optimistic; 2026 target price maximum RMB 72.60 (CICC), minimum RMB 66.25 (Guotai Haitong), average RMB 69.43 (Tonghuashun iNews); Sinolink Securities RMB 75.20 (2026-07-28). Comparison with earlier data shows rapid upward revision of expectations: In 2025-08/10, Guotai Haitong's target price was previously RMB 36.6→49.5, and in 2025-05 it was RMB 24.6; the target price was raised several times within a year, reflecting dramatic changes in tungsten prices and earnings expectations, and the risk that "expectations have been significantly re-rated" must be flagged. Important uncertainties: Reliable real-time PE(TTM)/PB and precise latest closing price were not obtained; the above PEs are all estimates at the time of broker reports (2026-05 to 2026-08), not real-time, and current market data should be supplemented when using; the "net profit" basis is confused in media and some F10 sources (1H26 consolidated net profit RMB 3.176 billion vs attributable to parent RMB 2.201 billion), and citations must distinguish between them; forecast divergence is extremely large, with revenue/net profit forecasts differing by more than 25% among individual brokers, highly sensitive to tungsten price and project progress assumptions.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Interim Results Preview

On the evening of 2026-07-20, a "Recent Operating Conditions Announcement" was released: expected 1H26 net profit attributable to parent of approximately RMB 2.216 billion, up approximately 128.62% YoY (an increase of approximately RMB 1.247 billion). All three major segments (tungsten-molybdenum, new energy materials, rare earth) saw profit increases YoY; alloy rods, cutting tools, power battery cathode materials, and magnetic materials all saw steady sales growth. Source: China Securities Journal, newzzbcx.cs.com.cn. Uncertainty: There is a slight difference between the preview (RMB 2.216 billion/+128.62%) and the subsequently disclosed official interim report (RMB 2.201 billion/+127.04%), which is a normal difference between preview basis and audited basis, and the official interim report shall prevail.

4.2 2026 Interim Report

Disclosed on the evening of 2026-08-20; board resolution announcement Lin-2026-098, disclosed on 2026-08-21. Operating revenue RMB 35.014 billion, +81.70% YoY; net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.201 billion, +127.04% YoY; non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.055 billion, +122.81% YoY; basic earnings per share RMB 1.3862. Interim dividend: RMB 4.2 per 10 shares (tax inclusive), totaling approximately RMB 667 million, accounting for 30.30% of 1H net profit attributable to parent. Breakdown: Tungsten-molybdenum revenue RMB 16.151 billion (+83.81%), total profit RMB 3.296 billion (+161.28%) (cutting tool sales volume +46%, revenue +76%); energy new materials revenue RMB 14.488 billion (+91.09%), total profit RMB 572 million (+55.71%) (lithium cobalt oxide sales volume 29,200 tonnes, +1.46%); rare earth revenue RMB 4.355 billion (+51.50%), total profit RMB 145 million (+101.41%) (magnetic material sales volume +29%). Risk points: Net cash flow from operating activities RMB -2.46 billion; accounts receivable rose from RMB 5.712 billion to RMB 10.387 billion (+81.83%); asset impairment provisions totaling RMB 1.278 billion recognized in 1H, of which inventory write-down provisions were RMB 1.121 billion. Sources: Shanghai Securities News·China Securities Network, Daily Economic News, Jiemian News, East Money. Uncertainty: Revenue of RMB 35 billion has already approached the full-year 2025 level (approximately RMB 35.196 billion), mainly due to the surge in tungsten prices (1H26 domestic 65% black tungsten concentrate average price RMB 689,000/tonne, +356.06% YoY); cash flow, accounts receivable, impairment and other figures are mainly from media/research report citations, and verification against the original interim report PDF is recommended.

4.3 2025 Annual Results Preview

Expected FY2025 net profit attributable to parent of RMB 2.311 billion, +35.08% YoY. Source: Sohu Securities earnings preview page (single source, not cross-verified by a second source, use with caution).

4.4 2025 Interim Report (for comparison)

Disclosed 2025-08-22. Revenue RMB 19.178 billion (+11.75%); net profit attributable to parent RMB 972 million (-4.37%); non-GAAP RMB 923 million (+7.53%); interim dividend RMB 1.84 per 10 shares. Source: China Securities Journal/East Money.

4.5 Acquisition of 30.1683% Stake in Jiangxi Jutong Industrial (Dahutang Tungsten Mine)

Approved by the board on 2026-08-19 (Lin-2026-098), cash contribution of RMB 593.33 million (RMB 256,328,036.82 + RMB 192,246,027.62 + RMB 144,753,397.77), acquiring stakes held by Fujian Juhong, Xiamen Sanhong, and Fujian Province Rare Earth Group, respectively; upon completion, the company will directly hold 31.5166% of Jiangxi Jutong and sign a "Concerted Action Agreement" with controlling shareholder Rare Earth Group, achieving de facto control and consolidation. Approved by the 2026-09-07 extraordinary shareholders' meeting (2026 fourth) (Lin-2026-111); on the same day, the "Proposal on Signing a Concerted Action Agreement with the Controlling Shareholder and Related-Party Transaction," the "Proposal on the Passive Formation of Related-Party Loans After Acquisition of Jiangxi Jutong Equity and Related-Party Transaction," and the "Proposal on Providing a Loan to Controlled Subsidiary Jiujiang Dadi Mining Development Co., Ltd." were also approved. Related shareholders abstained from voting. Transaction target: The operating entity of the world-class super-large Dahutang tungsten mine, with total retained reserves of 1.383 million tonnes WO₃ in the north and south zones, with resources exceeding the sum of the company's existing proprietary mines; the company has pursued this acquisition since 2015, spanning 11 years. Sources: International Finance News, East Money, Stockstar, China Securities Journal. Background: The company states that its current tungsten resource self-sufficiency rate is only approximately 20%, and the acquisition aims to shore up the upstream resource shortfall (this ratio is the company's own figure, cited from International Finance News).

4.6 Two M&A Transactions Completed in 1H26

Acquired a 69% stake in Jiujiang Dadi Mining Development Co., Ltd. (enhancing resource reserves); acquired a 70% stake in Yuanxing (Xiamen) Precision Tools Co., Ltd. (strengthening tap tool R&D and manufacturing, enhancing cutting tool solution capabilities). Sources: China Securities Journal, newzzbcx.cs.com.cn.

4.7 Laos Mengkang Rare Earth Project Suspended

Announcement Lin-2026-093 dated 2026-08-08. Associate company Xiamen Chijin Xiamen Tungsten Metal Resources Co., Ltd. (Chifeng Gold 51%, Xiamen Tungsten 49%) decided to suspend operations of the Mengkang rare earth mine project in Mengkang County, Xiangkhouang Province, Laos; the project had been in trial production since the completion of the transaction; the reason for suspension is stated as "responding to and strictly complying with policy requirements for rare earth resource development." Source: Shanghai Securities News. Note: The announcement mentions retained resource figures for the Mengkang rare earth mine, but the table figures in the main text are missing (incomplete web rendering); verification against the original text is recommended.

4.8 Ultra-Short-Term Financing Bond Issuance

Disclosed 2026-09-08, announcement Lin-2026-110. The company issued its 2026 second tranche of ultra-short-term financing bonds on 2026-09-03, with proceeds received on 2026-09-04 (specific size missing due to incomplete web table rendering; amount not obtained). Source: China Securities Journal.

4.9 Personnel Changes

On 2026-06-16, non-independent director Hou Xiaoliang resigned from his positions as director and member of the Nomination and Remuneration Committee due to work requirements (effective 6-16); on the same day, the 2026 third extraordinary shareholders' meeting elected Li Xiang as a non-independent director of the 10th Board of Directors. Source: China Fund News. Supplement: The chairman in 2026 announcements is Zhong Kexiang (in early 2025 announcements it was Huang Changgeng), indicating management has changed; this search did not obtain a specific announcement regarding the chairman change, and further verification is needed.

4.10 Implementation of Shareholder Return Plan

Per company disclosure, announcement dated 2026-07-20: Total dividends for 2025 interim + annual amounted to RMB 927 million (tax inclusive), accounting for 40.15% of 2025 net profit attributable to parent, above the 30% floor in the "Three-Year (2025-2027) Shareholder Return Plan"; the company will continue to implement interim dividends in 2026. Source: China Securities Journal.

4.11 Areas Not Covered/Limitations of This Review

Share buybacks: Searches under "600549 share buyback" were restricted, and recent buyback evidence was not obtained; no announcement of an ongoing share buyback was found (this does not mean none exists, but is a search coverage gap). Main capital flows: Due to exhausted search steps, the "main capital" search was not completed, and no capital flow data is available in this review. Top ten shareholder changes: Only a 2025 snapshot was found on Huaxi Securities F10 (Fujian Province Rare Earth Group 28.38%, Minmetals Nonferrous 7.68%, Hong Kong Securities Clearing increased holdings, Japan United Materials 3.19%, etc.), which is relatively dated, and the latest 2026 shareholder register was not obtained. Tables in some announcement texts (financing bond amounts, resource reserves, shareholder attendance shares) are missing due to incomplete web rendering, and figures are pending verification. The key governance change of the chairman transitioning from Huang Changgeng to Zhong Kexiang lacks dedicated announcement sources for cross-verification, and the latest annual report/interim announcement should prevail.

4.12 Overall Assessment (News/Announcement Perspective Only)

As of early September 2026, the announcement landscape for 600549 shows three main threads: ① Earnings — 1H26 net profit attributable to parent doubled YoY (+127%), driven by the tungsten price surge, but operating cash flow turned significantly negative and receivables and inventory impairment pressures are notable, representing a "strong profit, cash flow under pressure" type of financial report; ② Resources — intensive M&A (Jiujiang Dadi 69%, Yuanxing Precision 70%, Jiangxi Jutong 30.17%), with the core aim of shoring up upstream tungsten resource shortfalls and consolidating the company's leading position in the tungsten industry chain; ③ Policy/compliance — the Laos Mengkang rare earth project suspended operations due to rare earth policy requirements, constituting a short-term uncertainty. Dividends continue at a high payout ratio (interim 30.30%, 2025 annual 40.15%). (Note: All financial figures, equity ratios, and M&A amounts in this note are subject to the disclosure dates of the respective announcements; media-cited figures have been cross-referenced across multiple sources where possible, but processed data such as cash flow/impairment/gross margin should be finally verified against the official interim report PDF.)

5. Stock Price Trends and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the 2026-09-11 close, Xiamen Tungsten closed at RMB 48.79, down 1.89%, with turnover of RMB 1.638 billion and turnover rate of 2.19%. After peaking in late June (high inferred from daily closing sequence at approximately RMB 94.50, falling in mid-to-late June 2026), the stock price has been in a downtrend, currently approximately 50% below the peak; over the past 5 trading days, only September 9 saw single-day main capital net inflow, with the other 4 days showing net outflow; per Stockstar, main capital net outflow over the past 5 days totaled approximately RMB 131 million, while Jiufang Zhitou states main capital net outflow over the past 10 days was RMB 1.086 billion. On the technical front, single-provider data shows MACD formed a death cross below the zero line on September 2, RSI formed a death cross and crossed below 50 on September 10, and TradingView's today and 1-week ratings are both sell (1-month is strong buy), showing clear divergence; East Money Qian Gu Qian Ping states MACD/RSI/BOLL have no clear signal currently. In terms of chip structure, the number of shareholder accounts increased from 96,400 at end-2025 to 202,500 at end-June 2026 (+110%), indicating significant chip dispersion, and the latest price of RMB 48.79 is below the average chip cost of RMB 56.96. It must be emphasized: MA10/MA20/MA60, RSI6, MACD's DIF/DEA/histogram values, BOLL upper and lower bands and other key values could not be reliably obtained this time (quote pages are JS-rendered, no second source for cross-verification); the MA20 range of approximately RMB 52.5-53.5 is an indirect estimate, not an official value; first-hand conclusions should be reviewed against subsequently verifiable market data.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is purely a subjective scenario analysis based on the 2026-09-11 close and previously verified historical prices, technical indicators, and capital data; the weights listed are subjective heuristic judgments, not statistical probabilities; the price levels mentioned are ranges rather than single-point forecasts, and do not constitute any investment advice or buy/sell instructions. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50-60% (subjective heuristic weight, not statistical probability)): The stock price fluctuates repeatedly within the RMB 47.3~51.0 range, corresponding to the near-5-day closing volatility band. Trigger conditions: No major news changes, rare earth permanent magnet/non-ferrous metals sector overall stable, turnover maintained at recent levels of RMB 1.5-1.9 billion. This scenario is consistent with the state of "slight main capital net outflow over the past 5 days, no clear trend signal" and "Qian Gu Qian Ping stating no clear signal currently."
• Weak downside (moderate weight (subjective heuristic weight, not statistical probability)): If the first support of RMB 47.3~48.0 is effectively broken and turnover fails to expand to absorb selling, the price may test the strong support range of RMB 43.0~44.0 (Jiufang Zhitou box support RMB 43.04). Trigger conditions: Main capital continues net outflow (approximately RMB 131 million total over past 5 days per Stockstar, RMB 1.086 billion over past 10 days per Jiufang), MACD green histogram continues after death cross, sector capital continues to flow out. This scenario is consistent with bearish signals such as "daily bear point," "RSI crossing below 50," and "TradingView today/1-week rating sell."
• Rebound strengthening (relatively lower weight (subjective heuristic weight, not statistical probability)): If the price breaks above short-term resistance of RMB 50.5~51.0 with volume and holds, it may further challenge the RMB 52.5~53.5 area (MA20/main capital 20-day cost estimate zone, not official values) and even the bull-bear dividing point of RMB 52.54. Trigger conditions: Rare earth permanent magnet/non-ferrous metals sector strengthens overall, single-day turnover clearly expands, clear catalyst news emerges, and main capital shifts from net outflow to consecutive net inflow. This scenario has some resonance with TradingView's "1-month strong buy" and the still-positive YTD/1-year medium-term trend, but requires capital flow confirmation.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Capital and liquidity background: 2026-09-11 turnover rate 2.19%, recent turnover rate range approximately 1.1%~2.9% (9/1 was 2.92%, 9/4 intraday 1.34%, 9/9 2.39%, 9/10 intraday 1.14%); turnover on 9/11 was RMB 1.638 billion, on 9/9 RMB 1.884 billion. MarketWatch shows that day's volume was 34.02 million shares, 65-day average volume 70.05 million shares, only 49% of the average, indicating significant volume contraction and insufficient absorption capacity; meanwhile, East Money's volume ratio of 1.08 uses a different benchmark, and both can coexist, but also suggest that recent monthly volume has systematically shifted lower. For a large-cap stock with total market cap of RMB 77.458 billion and tradable market cap of RMB 75.816 billion, 2.19% turnover and approximately RMB 1.6 billion turnover are normal-to-low, with limited slippage risk, but volume contraction indicates limited absorption capacity. In terms of shareholder concentration, per East Money F10 and Sina disclosures (data as of 2026-06-30, announcement date 2026-08-21, more than 2 months ago, and the latest structure may have changed): Top ten shareholders collectively hold 50.46%, top ten tradable shareholders collectively hold 49.62%; the top ten tradable shareholders are mainly state-owned/strategic shareholders (Fujian Province Rare Earth Group 29.00%, Minmetals Nonferrous Metals 7.85%) and passive index ETFs (Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF 0.75%, Wanjia CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals ETF 0.47%, GF Guozheng New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF 0.42%) and individual large holders, with no active management public funds, social security, QFII or other mainstream active institutions holding major positions. Also per East Money F10, the number of shareholder accounts increased from 96,400 at end-2025 to 202,500 at end-June 2026 (+110%), indicating significant chip dispersion, corroborating the statement that "the latest price is below the average chip cost of RMB 56.96." Note: Jiufang Zhitou's statement of northbound "latest reduction of 908,500 shares, total holdings of 36,668,000 shares" is undated and differs significantly from Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company's 2026-06-30 holding of 87,123,700 shares (5.61% of tradable shares); the two use different statistical bases and cannot be directly compared, and this data is questionable.

Volume confirmation signals: If subsequent single-day turnover continues to expand above RMB 2 billion (higher than 9/11's RMB 1.638 billion and 9/9's RMB 1.884 billion, and clearly deviating from the recent low level), it can be regarded as a capital intervention signal; conversely, if single-day turnover continues to shrink below RMB 1.3 billion and the stock price breaks below the first support range of RMB 47.3~48.0, the confirmation of the weak scenario increases.

④ Key Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the short-term resistance range of RMB 50.5~51.0 can be broken with volume, and whether the first support of RMB 47.3~48.0 and strong support of RMB 43.0~44.0 (Jiufang Zhitou box support RMB 43.04) hold or fail; the above are observation ideas only, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether single-day turnover can continue to expand above RMB 2 billion as a capital intervention signal, or continue to shrink below RMB 1.3 billion as an insufficient absorption signal; this threshold is calibrated with reference to 9/11's RMB 1.638 billion, 9/9's RMB 1.884 billion, and the low level of 49% of 65-day average volume.
• Observe whether the direction of main capital flow shifts from consecutive net outflow to net inflow (approximately RMB 131 million net outflow over past 5 days per Stockstar, RMB 1.086 billion net outflow over past 10 days per Jiufang), and whether bearish technical signals such as MACD death cross and RSI crossing below 50 show repair; relevant indicators are lagging and are for observation reference only.
• Observe overall capital and sentiment changes in the rare earth permanent magnet/non-ferrous metals sector, and whether shareholder structure-related data (as of 2026-06-30, more than 2 months ago) see subsequent updated disclosure; the above are observation ideas only, not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on the 2026-09-11 closing data and previously verified historical prices, technical indicators, and capital data; MA20 of approximately RMB 52.5~53.5 and MA5 of approximately RMB 49.89 are the author's arithmetic/estimation results, not quote vendor bases; MA10/MA20/MA60, RSI6, MACD's DIF/DEA/histogram values, BOLL upper and lower bands and other values were not reliably obtained this time; the exact date of the 52-week high of RMB 96.85 and the precise values of the 52-week low of RMB 27.18/26.60 are disputed; shareholder data is as of 2026-06-30 and may have changed; northbound holdings have conflicting bases. Short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors including news, capital flows, and the broader market environment; technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future movements, and do not constitute buy/sell advice. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Warnings

• Tungsten price decline risk: In 1H26, the domestic 65% black tungsten concentrate average price was RMB 689,000/tonne, up 356.06% YoY; this period's high profit growth is relatively sensitive to tungsten price increases; if tungsten prices decline, the high gross margin of the tungsten-molybdenum segment and mine profits may contract significantly.
• Cash flow and accounts receivable risk: 1H26 net cash flow from operating activities was RMB -2.46 billion, and accounts receivable rose from RMB 5.712 billion to RMB 10.387 billion, up 81.83% YoY; if revenue growth cannot be converted into collections in tandem, it may increase working capital pressure and bad debt risk.
• Inventory impairment risk: The company recognized total asset impairment provisions of RMB 1.278 billion in 1H, of which inventory write-down provisions were RMB 1.121 billion; if tungsten prices, new energy material prices, or product demand change, inventory write-down pressure may continue to affect profits.
• M&A integration and project ramp-up risk: The company acquired equity interests in Jiujiang Dadi, Yuanxing Precision Tools, and Jiangxi Jutong; subsequent returns depend on asset integration, project construction, and capacity release progress; institutions have significant divergence on the injection timing and ramp-up progress of the Dahutang tungsten mine, and related forecasts may fall short of expectations.
• New energy materials profitability risk: Energy new materials accounted for 41.38% of 1H26 revenue, but gross margin was 8.29%, and total profit growth was lower than revenue growth; if price competition intensifies for lithium cobalt oxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate and other products, or raw material costs rise, scale growth may not necessarily translate into profit growth.
• Rare earth project policy and operational risk: The associate company has decided to suspend operations of the Laos Mengkang rare earth mine project due to responding to and complying with rare earth resource development policy requirements; there is uncertainty regarding the project's subsequent resumption, disposal, or operating arrangements, which may affect the rare earth business layout.
• Financing and financial pressure risk: The company issued its second tranche of ultra-short-term financing bonds in September 2026; proceeds have been received but the specific size was not obtained in existing data; against the backdrop of M&A expansion and negative cash flow, financing costs, debt servicing arrangements, and capital utilization efficiency require ongoing attention.
• Valuation and stock price volatility risk: The company's stock price has retraced approximately 50% from its late-June 2026 high of approximately RMB 94.50, and the current price is below the average chip cost of approximately RMB 56.96; meanwhile, institutional forecasts for 2026 net profit attributable to parent range from RMB 4.117 billion to RMB 5.182 billion, with large expectation divergence; if earnings or tungsten prices fall short of expectations, valuation and stock price may continue to face pressure.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Xiamen Tungsten's current core growth logic lies in the resource and deep-processing synergy of its full tungsten-molybdenum industry chain, as well as the profit amplification effect of rising tungsten prices on mining, smelting, and high value-added cemented carbide, cutting tools, and tungsten wire businesses. In 1H26, the tungsten-molybdenum segment's total profit grew 161.28% YoY, cutting tool sales volume grew 46%, and revenue grew 76%; energy new materials and rare earth segments also achieved revenue and profit growth, with the three major businesses providing some diversification support. If resource acquisitions such as the Dahutang tungsten mine can be consolidated as planned and capacity release can be advanced, it is expected to improve the company's currently low tungsten resource self-sufficiency rate.

Whether subsequent earnings can sustain high growth depends on tungsten price levels, resource project consolidation and ramp-up progress, downstream product sales volumes, and changes in new energy materials profitability. Current institutional forecasts span a wide range, and 2026Q2 net profit attributable to parent declined slightly by approximately 1.16% QoQ, indicating that high base effects and cyclical fluctuations have begun to affect the earnings slope. At the same time, negative cash flow, rapidly increasing accounts receivable, high inventory write-down provisions, and M&A financing and ultra-short-term financing bond arrangements mean that growth expansion needs to simultaneously withstand the test of working capital and balance sheet management.

From a market performance perspective, the coexistence of high fundamental growth and a significant stock price retracement from highs reflects the market reassessing the sustainability of tungsten prices, the degree of earnings realization, and volatility risk after valuation re-rating. Going forward, key areas to track include operating cash flow repair, accounts receivable collection, changes in inventory impairment, Dahutang tungsten mine integration and capacity progress, follow-up arrangements for the Laos rare earth project, and whether the stock price can re-establish itself above short-term resistance and medium-term cost zones; these factors will jointly determine whether earnings growth can translate into more stable earnings quality and market performance.

Data Sources

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• Xiamen Tungsten (sh600549)
• 600475 Huaguang Huaneng
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• 600549 Xiamen Tungsten
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• Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Results Continue to Hit New Highs, Continuously Improving Tungsten Raw Material Self-Sufficiency Rate
• Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Tungsten-Molybdenum Pillar Carries Great Undertakings, Magnetic Materials Showcase Brilliance
• Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Results Continue to Hit New Highs, Continuously Improving Tungsten Raw Material Self-Sufficiency Rate_Jiufang Zhitou
• Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Positioned in Strategic Metals, Tungsten-Molybdenum, Rare Earth and Lithium Battery Materials Developing in Tandem
• Positioned in Strategic Metals, Tungsten-Molybdenum, Rare Earth and Lithium Battery Materials Developing in Tandem - East Money > Research Report Collection > Xiamen Tungsten - Research Report Text
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• Positioned in Strategic Metals, Tungsten-Molybdenum, Rare Earth and Lithium Battery Materials Developing in Tandem
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• In-Depth Report: Tungsten-Molybdenum Pillar Carries Great Undertakings, Magnetic Materials Showcase Brilliance
• Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Tungsten Full Industry Chain Leader
• Xiamen Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten 2024 Annual Report_Jiufang Zhitou - 40/373 Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report and the "Supplementary Agreement", Xiamen Tengwangge Property and Chengdu Shengtengge signed the "Equity Transfer Contract" regarding the transfer of 100% equity of Chengdu Tengwangge Property, specific details see the company's December 2023
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• Xiamen Tungsten (600549)_Company Announcements_Xiamen Tungsten 2016 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina - 3. Battery Raw Materials 1,558,489,605.95 83.72 880,222,799.13 86.05 77.06
• From 2022 to January-September 2025, the company's top five customers' sales revenue as a proportion of operating revenue was 48.66%, 35.38%, 38.12% and 45.09%, respectively
• <table><tr><td>Customer Name</td><td>Sales Amount Including Tax</td><td>Proportion of Total Sales Amount (Including Tax) of Company's Tungsten-Molybdenum Segment</td><td>Payment Method</td></tr><tr><td>Customer A</td><td>25,738.66</td><td>3.61...
• Xiamen Tungsten: 2015 Annual Report-Stockstar - Customer C 56,390,208.00 4.87 2,819,510.40
• Xiamen Tungsten Financial Report Summary
• [2019-2026H1 Xiamen Tungsten Segment Gross Margin Trends: Tungsten-Molybdenum Segment Continues to Strengthen, Reaching 36.78% in 2026H1 [Chart]](https://www.sgpjbg.com.cn/task/7185138.html)
• Xiamen Tungsten (600549) Gross Margin
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• Xiamen Tungsten Co Ltd (600549) Income Statement - Investing.com PH
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• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
• Xiamen Tungsten - Main Business Composition - - 2025-12-31
• Q1 Major Tungsten Companies' Earnings Growth Continues and Amplifies, Industry: Long-Term Price Support Logic Solid
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• Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire Industry Report: Market Share, Size, Growth Rate, Manufacturer Analysis 2026-2032 - Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire Industry Report: Market Share, Size, Growth Rate, Manufacturer Analysis 2026-2032
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• 2025 China Tungsten Industry Enterprise Development Potential Ranking-Ranking-AskCI Consulting
• Tungsten Wire Connects a Hundred-Billion Track! Four Companies with Divergent Fates: Those with Mines Stand Firm as Mount Tai, Those Without Mines Struggle with Nanometers; Who Will Dominate Among China Tungsten, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan, and Xianglu?
• 2025-2030 China Black Tungsten Concentrate Industry Market Status Analysis and Competitive Landscape and Investment Development Research Report-20250502.docx - (RMB/tonne) Production Share Global (%) CR5 Concentration (%) Production (10,000 tonnes) Demand Growth (%) 2025 78.5 62.3 13.3 18.2 185,000 2026 77.8 65.1 13.85 9.5 192,500 2027 76.2 68.4 14.40 10.3 201,800 2028 75.6 71...
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