LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (601012)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Photovoltaic Manufacturing　|　Report Date: 2026-10-02　|　Market data as of the 2026-09-30 close

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on public information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

Key Conclusion: BC volume growth has yet to translate into earnings; any valuation recovery depends on a turnaround in gross margins and cash flow

Market data as of the 2026-09-30 close

1. Key Investment Points

• Losses have deepened, with no operating inflection point yet: Revenue in 1H 2026 was RMB 27.045 billion, down 17.58% year over year. Net loss attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.684 billion, widening 43.39% year over year. Gross margin was just 1.34%, and operating cash flow was a net outflow of RMB 5.818 billion.
• Growth in BC and overseas markets has yet to translate into profits: BC module sales reached 19.55GW in 1H, accounting for more than 65% of module shipments, while overseas module sales grew by more than 26% year over year. However, shipment growth has not reversed losses; a recovery still depends on improved profitability.
• Valuation is near the company’s historical lows, but earnings provide no PE anchor: The stock closed at RMB 11.21 on September 30. PE-TTM is not applicable due to losses; PB of 1.76x and PS of 1.32x are at the 6th and 23rd percentiles, respectively, over the past 5.2 years.

Market Expectations and Evidence

• What the market is pricing in: Consensus expects a loss of RMB 3.266 billion in 2026, followed by a return to profit of RMB 2.747 billion in 2027. PE is currently not applicable, while PB and PS are near the company’s historical lows; the valuation is primarily a bet on a subsequent earnings recovery.
• What the evidence shows: The recovery path has not yet been validated by results: the company remained loss-making in 1H, with a net loss of RMB 3.684 billion, a gross margin of just 1.34%, and negative operating cash flow. Analysts’ 2026 net profit forecasts range widely, from a loss of RMB 6.265 billion to a profit of RMB 565 million.

Evidence-Weighted View: Bearish; Confidence: High (coverage by 13 institutions; market and financial data checked programmatically)

Evidence of losses, low gross margins, and cash flow pressure is clear. Low historical valuation percentiles provide a cushion, but 2026 earnings forecasts diverge widely and the recovery has yet to materialize.

2. Business and Competitiveness

2.1 Business Mix

The company sells wafers, solar cells, modules, and related products to photovoltaic customers, and operates photovoltaic power plants. Revenue is generated primarily through product pricing and shipment volumes.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Competitive Advantage Strength: Weak

• Scale: In 2025, wafer and module shipments were 111.56GW and 86.58GW, respectively.
• BC technology: HPBC 2.0 achieved a 98.5% production yield, and BC module sales reached 22.87GW.
• Cost control: In 2025, non-silicon costs across the full wafer production process fell 29% year over year.

Key threats: Supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition are suppressing profitability. BC product premiums and cost advantages have yet to be fully realized, while trade restrictions and low capacity utilization also weigh on the business.

2.3 Value Chain Position and Profitability Trends

• Inputs include polysilicon, wafer production materials and consumables, as well as silver paste, glass, and encapsulation materials for solar cells and modules. In 2025, raw materials accounted for 69.44% of photovoltaic operating costs.
• Purchases from the top five suppliers accounted for 26.37% of the total (2025 annual report). Procurement is concentrated among leading polysilicon producers, with payment generally required before shipment. The company has limited bargaining power over bulk raw material prices.
• Customers include module purchasers, power plant investors and developers, system integrators, and distribution channels. When supply and demand are imbalanced, competition among commoditized products puts manufacturers under significant pricing pressure.
• According to the 2025 annual report, sales to the top five customers accounted for 14.11%, with the largest customer accounting for 4.47%; purchases from the top five suppliers accounted for 26.37%. These are annual disclosure figures.
• At year-end 2025, accounts receivable were approximately RMB 11.551 billion, or approximately 16.4% of full-year revenue; accounts payable were approximately RMB 32.550 billion, or approximately 46.3% of revenue. Days sales outstanding were approximately 65.2 days, reflecting substantial use of payables; balances alone do not demonstrate bargaining power.

LONGi occupies the midstream of photovoltaic manufacturing. Its scale and BC technology have yet to translate into sustainably high gross margins. Profit improvement depends on high-efficiency products realizing cost advantages, an upgraded product mix, and a recovery in capacity utilization. Net margin refers to the publicly reported financial metric; approximate figures may differ from those calculated using net profit attributable to shareholders.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

Photovoltaic manufacturing remains under pressure from supply-demand imbalances and price competition. LONGi’s gross margin for modules and solar cells was just 0.19% in 2025, and the company continued to post losses in 1H 2026. Whether BC products can deliver sustainable profitability is key.

LONGi’s revenue ranks among the highest of its comparable peers. Its scale, sales channels, and progress in BC mass production are potential advantages; however, its overall gross margin was only 0.81% in 2025, with no clear earnings advantage. The companies’ business mixes are not fully comparable, and overall gross margin should not be equated directly with per-watt profitability.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

As of October 2, 2026; figures as disclosed in the 1H 2026, FY 2025, and FY 2024 reports; amounts in RMB billions.

Industry supply-demand imbalances and insufficient operating rates have weighed on gross margin, while silver prices, investment losses from associates, and foreign exchange losses deepened the 1H loss. Quarterly revenue recovered sequentially, but profitability remains under pressure.

3.2 Financial Health Check

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation

Valuation multiples calculated programmatically using closing-price data as of 2026-09-30 (trailing twelve-month basis); peer multiples calculated on the same basis using closing-price data as of 2026-09-30

PE-TTM is not applicable due to losses. PB of 1.76x is at the 6th percentile over the past 5.2 years, while PS of 1.32x is at the 23rd percentile; both are below the company’s median multiples of 2.61x and 1.69x, respectively, but above peers’ PB range of 1.16–1.69x and PS range of 0.38–0.67x. The valuation is inexpensive relative to the company’s own history, but remains higher than peers. The share price implies an industry and company earnings recovery. Analysts expect a loss in 2026 and a return to profit in 2027, but delivery has yet to be validated.

4.2 Consensus Forecasts

Consensus forecasts from 13 institutions over the past six months, as of October 2, 2026; 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast by 8 institutions ranges from -RMB 6.265 billion to RMB 565 million.

4.3 Institutional Views

3 institutions cover the company, with an average target price of RMB 15.09 and a range of RMB 13.6–17.25; the latest target price is RMB 13.6 from Goldman Sachs on September 2, 2026.

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Upcoming Milestones

5.2 Recent Significant Events

• 2026-08-31 BC shipment share increased, but operations remained under pressure (Bearish): The interim report showed 1H BC module sales of 19.55GW, accounting for more than 65% of module shipments, and cumulative energy storage orders exceeding 3GWh. However, losses and operating cash flow pressure have yet to ease; shipments and orders do not in themselves mean profits have materialized.
• 2026-09-30 Overseas module sales grew (Neutral): The company disclosed that overseas module sales grew by more than 26% year over year in 1H, with overseas module revenue accounting for more than 65%; energy storage orders exceeded 3GWh, but the corresponding contract value, delivery schedule, and revenue recognition progress were not disclosed.
• 2026-09-22 Long 22 Convertible Bonds met the downward-adjustment conditions, but no adjustment will be proposed for now (Neutral): After the share price triggered the conditions for a downward adjustment to the conversion price, the company decided not to propose an adjustment and committed not to do so through October 21. Meeting the conditions does not automatically lower the conversion price.

6. Bull-Bear Debate and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

• BC has achieved meaningful scale: 1H sales reached 19.55GW, accounting for more than 65% of module shipments. If the premium translates into gross margin, earnings could become more responsive to growth.
• Overseas module sales grew by more than 26% year over year in 1H, accounting for more than 65% of revenue; growth in exports supports demand.

6.2 Bear Case

• In 2025, gross margins were just 0.19% for modules and solar cells and -5.30% for wafers and silicon rods. Profitability in core manufacturing remains extremely thin or negative.
• In 1H 2026, operating cash flow was a net outflow of RMB 5.818 billion, ROE was -7.04%, and the interest coverage ratio was -6.5x, increasing funding pressure during the loss-making period.
• Institutional forecasts for 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders range from a loss of RMB 6.265 billion to a profit of RMB 565 million, with no consensus on the timing or scale of an earnings recovery.

6.3 Other Risks

• From April 2027, photovoltaic cells will be subject to a consumption tax at a 2% rate. If the tax burden cannot be passed on to downstream customers, manufacturing profits will be further reduced.
• Raw materials accounted for 69.44% of photovoltaic operating costs in 2025. Higher prices for inputs such as silver, or larger foreign exchange losses, would squeeze already limited gross margins.
• The downward-adjustment conditions for Long 22 Convertible Bonds will be recalculated from October 22, 2026. If a subsequent adjustment proposal leads to conversion, the increased share supply could affect earnings per share and valuation.

7. Watchlist

8. Share Price and Short-Term Outlook (One-Week Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The weights below are subjective heuristics based on current technical indicators and fund flows, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute investment advice.

8.1 Technical Overview

The share price has rebounded from its 52-week low. Daily trading volume was 1.39x the 20-day average, and the MACD histogram turned positive, indicating a recovery in short-term momentum. However, the stock remains below its MA20 and MA60. Whether the rebound can continue depends on a break above RMB 11.38 and confirmation from trading value.

8.2 Key Price Levels

8.3 One-Week Range Based on Historical Volatility

Using the September 30, 2026 price of RMB 11.21 as the base, the closing-price range for the next 5 trading days is estimated from the return distribution over the past 300 trading days, scaled by the current index-weighted daily volatility of approximately 1.8% while retaining this stock’s own frequency of large moves:

This range reflects only the stock’s recent volatility and does not indicate price direction. Actual movements may exceed the range in the event of major announcements or a sharp market decline.

8.4 One-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 45%): RMB 10.75–11.38; the stock holds around RMB 10.75 but fails to move decisively above RMB 11.38. Based on historical volatility, the probability that the closing price one week later falls within this range is approximately 50%.
• Downside bias (medium weight, approximately 30%): RMB 10.68–10.75; after the close falls below RMB 10.75, the stock retests the area around the Bollinger lower band. Based on historical volatility, the probability that the closing price one week later falls within this range is approximately 5%.
• Stronger rebound (relatively low weight, approximately 25%): RMB 11.38–12.08; a breakout above RMB 11.38 on higher volume would signal a recovery toward recent highs and the Bollinger upper band. Based on historical volatility, the probability that the closing price one week later falls within this range is approximately 30%.

The weights in parentheses are subjective; the probabilities at the end of each sentence are inferred from the volatility ranges above and reflect volatility only, not direction.

8.5 Fund Flows and Liquidity

Over the past 10 trading days, daily trading value was approximately RMB 517 million–974 million, with a turnover rate of 0.63%–1.16%. As of June 30, 2026, the top 10 tradable shareholders held a combined 28.05%; individual shareholders ranked among the largest holders, alongside ETFs, social security funds, and Stock Connect holdings. Shareholder data are disclosed with a time lag and the structure may change. Trading activity is reasonable, but concentrated holdings may amplify the impact of marginal supply and demand on short-term volatility.

If daily trading value exceeds RMB 980 million for two consecutive days and the closing price holds above RMB 11.38, this could be considered a testable signal of a breakout on higher volume.

The scenario analysis above is based on closing-price data as of 2026-09-30 and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share price movements will also be affected by multiple factors, including news, fund flows, and broader market conditions. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited; this analysis does not guarantee actual future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Please make an independent assessment based on the latest market information and assume the investment risks yourself.

Sources

• 上市公司行业分类查询结果 | 上海证券交易所
• 公司公告_隆基绿能：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 隆基绿能科技股份有限公司2025年年度报告
• static.cninfo.com.cn（公告PDF）
• 601012 隆基股份2021 年年度股东大会会议资料
• 晶科能源(688223)_公司公告_晶科能源：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 隆基绿能市盈率(PE)（601012.SH）- 小乐财报
• 财报摘要
• 东方财富 F10 财务分析
• 东方财富 F10 盈利预测
• 隆基绿能:2026年半年度报告
• 最新公告 | 上海证券交易所
• 股票代码:601012  股票简称:隆基绿能  公告编号:临 2026-038 号
• file.finance.sina.com.cn（公告PDF）
• 中国证券报 - 隆基绿能科技股份有限公司<BR/>关于暂不向下修正“隆22转债”转股价格的公告
• 隆基绿能(601012) - 重大事项备忘 - 股票行情中心 - 搜狐证券
• 国家标准|GB 47834-2026
• 国家税务总局政策法规库
• 隆基绿能(601012)限售解禁|股本结构 - 理杏仁
• 东方财富 个股资金流向
• 东方财富 股东研究

This report was automatically researched, compiled, and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the 2026-09-30 close and may differ in timeliness; please refer to the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals for specific figures. This report is for informational and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own independent judgments and assume the investment risks themselves.