Report date: 2026-09-13 | Price data: Price and market data as of the September 11, 2026 close; September 12, 2026 is Saturday, with no A-share trading. | Sources: 29 | Report engine: v1 (v2 available)

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Latest market data

Close	4.33 (+1.88% on the day; +0.46% over 5 sessions; -2.04% over 20 sessions)
Market cap	CNY 106.22 billion
P/E (TTM)	5.39x (66th percentile over 5.2 years)
P/B (MRQ)	0.33x (2th percentile over 5.2 years)
P/S (TTM)	0.1x (3th percentile over 5.2 years)
52-week range	4.04 (2026-06-29) – 6.38 (2026-02-25)
Moving averages	MA5 4.27 / MA10 4.28 / MA20 4.33 / MA60 4.38
MACD (12,26,9)	DIF -0.034, DEA -0.03, histogram -0.008
RSI	RSI6 58.5 / RSI14 49.3
Bollinger bands (20,2)	Upper 4.46 / middle 4.33 / lower 4.21
Volume	1.19x the 20-day average
One-week range (about 68% coverage)	4.24 – 4.4 (-2.1% ~ +1.6%)
One-week range (about 95% coverage)	4.15 – 4.59 (-4.2% ~ +6.0%)

As of the 2026-09-30 close; calculated from daily price data (adjusted prices) and refreshed automatically each trading day. The one-week range reflects historical volatility only and is not a forecast. The report below was written on 2026-09-13; its prices and short-term scenarios reflect data at that time.

China Railway Group Limited (601390)

Equity Research Report | Sector: Construction Engineering / Infrastructure General Contracting | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Price and market data as of the close on September 11, 2026; September 12, 2026 is a Saturday, and A-shares do not trade.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

China Railway Group's latest results are in a phase of dual pressure on both revenue and profit: H1 2026 operating revenue was RMB 471.761 billion, down 7.70% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 8.656 billion, down 26.81% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was RMB 7.088 billion, down 30.97% year-on-year. During the same period, the gross profit margin was 8.53%, the net profit margin was 2.10%, the weighted average ROE was 2.45%, and net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 86.661 billion, indicating pressure on both profitability and cash collection.

The company's business remains overwhelmingly dominated by engineering construction, which generated revenue of RMB 403.2 billion in the 2026 interim report, accounting for 85.47%, but with a gross profit margin of only 7.09%; within this, the railway business had a gross profit margin of 5.05%, while municipal and other, and highway businesses had gross profit margins of 7.66% and 9.65%, respectively. Design consulting, equipment manufacturing and other businesses have relatively higher gross profit margins, and the resource utilization segment achieved a gross profit margin of 54.85% in the 2025 interim report, but the current overall revenue structure is still insufficient to offset the impact of the traditional infrastructure main business on the company's performance.

In terms of orders, new contract signings in H1 2026 amounted to RMB 1,005.68 billion, down 9.3% year-on-year, of which engineering construction new signings fell 2.0% and overseas new signings fell 43.5%; new contract signings for resource utilization, equipment manufacturing and emerging businesses grew 50.8%, 16.7% and 5.7%, respectively, reflecting business structure adjustment and the growth potential of resources and emerging businesses, but the company also disclosed that there are currently no major projects signed but not yet executed. Full-year 2025 new contract signings still grew 1.3% to RMB 2,750.9 billion, with overseas new signings up 16.5%.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price closed at RMB 4.39, with a dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 5.5–6.3x and a P/B ratio of approximately 0.33–0.34x, at the lower end of the 52-week price range of RMB 4.13–6.47. Recently the share price has mainly fluctuated at low levels between RMB 4.30 and 4.46, with MA5, MA10 and MA20 concentrated at RMB 4.38–4.41, and the technical picture has not yet formed a clear trend. The company has completed approximately RMB 800 million of share buybacks and cancellation, and implemented an interim dividend of RMB 0.6374 per 10 shares for 2026; shareholder returns and valuation repair remain market focal points.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

Item	Content
Stock Code	601390.SH / 00390.HK
Listing Date	A-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board on December 3, 2007; H-shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 7, 2007
Controlling Shareholder	China Railway Engineering Group Limited (CRECG), holding 47.38% (data date 2026/06/30)
Actual Controller	State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council
Enterprise Nature	Central state-owned enterprise
Registered/Office Address	Registered address: Fengtai District, Beijing; Office address: China Railway Group Plaza, No. 69 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing
Legal Representative/Chairman	Chen Wenjian
Total Share Capital	24.531 billion shares (A-shares 20.324 billion + H-shares 4.207 billion), data date 2026/06/30
Registered Capital	Approximately RMB 24.686 billion (source: CFI.cn)
Development History	Predecessor was the Ministry of Railways Engineering General Bureau/Design General Bureau in 1950 → China Railway Engineering Corporation established in 1989 → joint-stock company established by sole sponsorship on September 12, 2007

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

Engineering construction (infrastructure construction): 2026 interim revenue of RMB 403.2 billion, accounting for 85.47%, gross profit margin 7.09%; internal breakdown: municipal and other RMB 211.7 billion / 44.87% / gross profit margin 7.66%, railway RMB 132.7 billion / 28.14% / gross profit margin 5.05%, highway RMB 58.77 billion / 12.46% / gross profit margin 9.65%
Design consulting: 2026 interim revenue of RMB 7.266 billion, accounting for 1.54%, gross profit margin 23.55% (2025 interim gross profit margin 24.80%)
Equipment manufacturing: 2026 interim revenue of RMB 13.43 billion, accounting for 2.85%, gross profit margin 18.41% (products include turnouts, shield/TBM, bridge steel structures, engineering construction machinery, prefabricated building components, rail transit electrification equipment)
Distinctive real estate (real estate development): 2026 interim revenue of RMB 11.05 billion, accounting for 2.34%, gross profit margin 6.90%
Resource utilization: 2025 interim separately reported revenue of RMB 4.014 billion, accounting for 0.78%, gross profit margin 54.85%; full-year 2025 new signings of RMB 27.00 billion; owns 5 mines domestically and overseas (Luming Molybdenum Mine, Lusha Copper-Cobalt Mine, MKM Copper-Cobalt Mine, Sicomines Copper-Cobalt Mine, Wulan Lead-Zinc Mine)
Asset operation: full-year 2025 new signings of RMB 204.13 billion
Finance and trade: full-year 2025 new signings of RMB 74.42 billion
Emerging businesses: full-year 2025 new signings of RMB 472.48 billion (including water conservancy and hydropower RMB 108.30 billion, clean energy RMB 125.07 billion, ecological environmental protection RMB 97.81 billion, urban operations RMB 19.34 billion, airport and navigation channels RMB 28.07 billion)
Other businesses: 2026 interim revenue of RMB 31.84 billion, accounting for 6.75%, gross profit margin 15.03%

2.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Reporting Period	Operating Revenue	YoY	Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	YoY
2026H1	RMB 471.761 billion ("operating revenue" basis) / RMB 473.107 billion ("total operating revenue" basis)	-7.70% (operating revenue basis) / -7.69% (total operating revenue basis)	Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 8.656 billion (deducted non-recurring RMB 7.088 billion)	-26.81% (deducted non-recurring -30.97%)
2026Q1	RMB 234.998 billion	-5.46%	Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 4.359 billion	-27.65%
2026Q2	RMB 236.763 billion	-9.81%	Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 4.297 billion (deducted non-recurring RMB 3.196 billion)	-25.94% (deducted non-recurring -32.21%)
FY2025	Total operating revenue RMB 1,093.494 billion	-5.76%	Net profit RMB 26.347 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 22.892 billion	Net profit -14.34%; net profit attributable to shareholders -17.91%
FY2024	Total operating revenue RMB 1,160.311 billion	-8.17%	Net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 27.887 billion (deducted non-recurring RMB 24.325 billion)	-16.71% (deducted non-recurring -21.21%)

The latest financial report is the 2026 interim report (disclosed 2026-08-28); the previous full year is the 2025 annual report (disclosed 2026-03-31). 2026H1 has two coexisting bases: the interim report summary "operating revenue" of RMB 471.761 billion (-7.70%) and the "total operating revenue" of RMB 473.107 billion (-7.69%) cited by multiple media/research reports, a difference of approximately RMB 1.35 billion; the official summary figure of RMB 471.761 billion is preferred. There is a basis conflict for 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders: the A-share annual report summary figure of RMB 22.892 billion (-17.91%) does not match the RMB 20.914 billion (-21.7%) cited by etnet; the former is cross-verified by the annual report summary and a Citi research report, so RMB 22.892 billion is adopted, and the latter is marked as questionable. 2026H1 basic earnings per share was RMB 0.320 (-22.33%), inconsistent with the decline in net profit attributable to shareholders; this is presumed to be a basis after deducting interest on perpetual bonds/other equity instruments, and no official explanation has been cross-verified. 2026H1 weighted average ROE 2.45% (YoY -0.83pct); net cash flow from operating activities negative RMB 86.661 billion; total assets RMB 2,458.458 billion (down 0.49% from the end of the prior year); net assets attributable to shareholders RMB 378.348 billion (up 1.96% from the end of the prior year); asset-liability ratio 77.45%; new contract signings RMB 1,005.68 billion (-9.3%); gross profit margin 8.53% (-0.20pct), net profit margin 2.10% (-0.47pct); interim dividend of RMB 0.6374 per 10 shares (tax inclusive), totaling approximately RMB 1.564 billion, accounting for 18.06% of net profit attributable to shareholders. 2025 EBITDA RMB 70.823 billion (-2.03%); new contract signings RMB 2,750.90 billion (+1.3%); net operating cash flow approximately RMB 28.8 billion; year-end asset-liability ratio 78.12%; total 2025 dividend distribution approximately RMB 4.144 billion, accounting for 18.10% of net profit attributable to shareholders. 2024 basic EPS RMB 1.085, proposed distribution of RMB 1.78 per 10 shares. Sources: 2026 interim report summary (Stockstar), 2025 annual report summary (Securities Daily/China Railway Group), Shenwan Hongyuan annual report review, Guotou Securities/Huayuan Securities/Zhongtai Securities research reports, etc.

3.2 Profit Forecast

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Interim Report Disclosure: Revenue of RMB 471.761 Billion, Down 7.70% YoY; Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders of RMB 8.656 Billion, Down 26.81% YoY

The company disclosed the 2026 interim report summary on the evening of August 28, 2026. The report shows: operating revenue of RMB 471.761 billion (RMB 471,761,068 thousand), -7.70% YoY; total profit of RMB 13.387 billion, -18.71% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.656 billion, -26.81% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items of RMB 7.088 billion, -30.97% YoY; basic earnings per share of RMB 0.32, -22.33% YoY; weighted average ROE 2.45%; net cash flow from operating activities negative RMB 86.661 billion (prior-year same period negative RMB 79.630 billion); total assets RMB 2,458.458 billion, down 0.49% from the end of the prior year; asset-liability ratio 77.45% (year-end prior year 78.12%); total number of shareholders at period end 547,922. Sources: Stockstar, China Fund News, 21st Century Business Herald, National Business Daily and other media are consistent, and the figures can be cross-verified. Inconsistencies to note: Zhongtai Securities' 2026-08-30 review and AASTOCKS reprint stated "H1 revenue of RMB 473.107 billion, -7.69% YoY," inconsistent with the interim report summary's RMB 471.761 billion (-7.70%); the company's interim report summary shall prevail, and RMB 473.107 billion is suspected to be on a total operating revenue basis or a reprint error. Obvious errors to exclude: some self-media claimed "H1 revenue of RMB 511.093 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.827 billion"; this set of figures is actually H1 2025 data, a misattribution, and is not accepted.

4.2 2025 Annual Report: Revenue of RMB 1,090.626 Billion, Down 5.77% YoY; Full-Year New Contract Signings of RMB 2,750.9 Billion, Up 1.3% YoY

The 2025 annual report (disclosure date 2026-03-30) shows: operating revenue of RMB 1,090.626 billion, -5.77% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 22.892 billion, -17.91% YoY; basic earnings per share of RMB 0.848; full-year new contract signings of RMB 2,750.9 billion, +1.3% YoY (domestic RMB 2,493.53 billion, -0.03%; overseas RMB 257.37 billion, +16.5%). Proposed cash dividend of RMB 0.86 per 10 shares (tax inclusive) — this dividend statement comes from a Sina Finance report and differs considerably from the 2024 "RMB 1.78 per 10 shares" basis; it is recommended to verify against the original annual report/equity distribution implementation announcement before citing.

4.3 2026 Q1 Report: Revenue of RMB 235.710 Billion, Down 5.45% YoY; Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders of RMB 4.359 Billion, Down 27.65% YoY

The 2026 Q1 report (disclosure date 2026-04-30) shows: operating revenue of RMB 235.710 billion, -5.45% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.359 billion, -27.65% YoY. Note: an old Hithink page shows 2025Q1 revenue of RMB 248.564 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.025 billion; the two should not be confused.

4.4 Earnings Forecast Situation: No Earnings Forecast/Profit Warning Announcement Found for the 2026 Interim Report in This Search

This search did not find any "earnings forecast/profit warning announcement" issued for the 2026 interim report (interim reports are generally not subject to mandatory forecasting), and the report is based on the formal interim report.

4.5 2026 Q2 Major Operating Data Announcement: Cumulative New Contract Signings of RMB 1,005.68 Billion, Down 9.3% YoY

"2026 Q2 Major Operating Data Announcement" (Announcement No. Lin 2026-039, release date 2026-07-31, disclosed simultaneously for H-shares): new contract signings for April–June 2026 were RMB 667.17 billion; cumulative for the year RMB 1,005.68 billion, -9.3% YoY (of which Q1 cumulative was approximately RMB 338.51 billion, with a clear rebound in Q2). Cumulative by business: engineering construction RMB 724.32 billion (-2.0%, 3,239 projects); emerging businesses RMB 151.49 billion (+5.7%); finance and trade RMB 31.83 billion (+11.2%); equipment manufacturing RMB 27.25 billion (+16.7%); resource utilization RMB 21.86 billion (+50.8%, the highest growth); asset operation RMB 21.64 billion (-83.2%); distinctive real estate RMB 17.54 billion (-4.4%); design consulting RMB 9.75 billion (-23.0%). Cumulative by region: domestic RMB 935.09 billion (-5.0%); overseas RMB 70.59 billion (-43.5%). The company stated that "there are currently no major projects signed but not yet executed"; the above are preliminary statistics and may differ from periodic reports. Note: some reprints reversed the signs of the "YoY change" for sub-items such as equipment manufacturing, resource utilization and finance and trade (e.g., "equipment manufacturing -16.7%"); the original announcement (+16.7%) shall prevail.

4.6 Share Buyback Completed and Cancelled: Actual Buyback of 155 Million Shares, Funds Used Approximately RMB 800 Million

Starting point: on 2025-04-10, Chairman Chen Wenjian proposed a buyback; on 2025-04-16, the company announced receipt of a "Loan Commitment Letter" from ICBC Beijing Branch, not exceeding RMB 1.6 billion and not higher than 90% of the actual buyback plan executed, with a term not exceeding 3 years. Plan: first disclosed on 2025-04-30, approved at the 2025-06-20 annual general meeting and A/H class shareholders' meetings; buyback amount RMB 800 million–RMB 1.6 billion, price cap RMB 8.50/share, term from 2025-06-20 to 2026-06-19, purpose "to reduce registered capital" (all cancelled), source of funds being own funds + special buyback loan. Execution: first buyback of 3,507,500 shares on 2025-10-21 (average price approximately RMB 5.70, amount RMB 19,999,800); as of 2025-11-30, cumulative buyback of 10,501,500 shares (0.0425%), amount RMB 59,999,100, price range RMB 5.63–5.75. Result: on 2026-06-21, the buyback implementation result was announced — the term expired on 2026-06-19, actual buyback of 154,911,600 shares (155 million shares), accounting for 0.6275% of total share capital, highest RMB 5.75, lowest RMB 4.66, average price approximately RMB 5.16, actual funds used RMB 800,015,757 (approximately RMB 800 million, excluding fees), cancelled on 2026-06-22 with change registration completed. That is, the actual executed amount only reached the plan's lower limit of RMB 800 million and did not use up the upper limit of RMB 1.6 billion. After cancellation, total share capital should be 24,531,310,329 shares (consistent with the 2026 interim dividend "based on the total share capital of 24,531,310,329 shares as of the report disclosure date," which can serve as reverse evidence that the cancellation has been completed). Additionally: on 2025-09-30, it was announced that the conditions for unlocking the third unlock period of the 2021 restricted stock incentive plan were not met, and some restricted shares were repurchased and cancelled, with the buyback price adjusted, capital reduced, and creditors notified.

4.7 2026 Interim Dividend Implementation: RMB 0.6374 per 10 Shares, Total Distribution of RMB 1.56363 Billion

2026 interim dividend: RMB 0.6374 per 10 shares (tax inclusive), total distribution of RMB 1.56363 billion (RMB 1,563,625,720.37), accounting for 18.06% of H1 net profit attributable to shareholders; base of 24,531,310,329 shares. Implementation timing (Announcement No. Lin 2026-047, disclosed 2026-09-10/09-11): A-share record date 2026-09-30, ex-dividend date and cash dividend payment date 2026-10-08; H-share transfer registration suspended from 2026-09-25 to 09-30, record date 2026-09-30, dividend payment date approximately 2026-10-14. The A-share equity distribution implementation announcement will be issued separately. Institutional background: on 2026-06-29, the 2025 annual general meeting was held, reviewing and approving the "China Railway Group 2025 Profit Distribution Plan and 2026 Interim Dividend Plan," authorizing the board to formulate and implement the interim dividend; from 2026-08-27 to 08-28, the 25th meeting of the sixth board of directors approved the 2026 interim profit distribution plan. Sources: Shanghai Securities News, Sina Finance, China Fund News and multiple sources are consistent.

4.8 "Improving Quality, Increasing Efficiency and Rewarding Returns" Action Plan: Emphasizes Three-Year Shareholder Return Plan, Stabilizing Dividend Frequency and Increasing Dividend Ratio in Due Course

"Improving Quality, Increasing Efficiency and Rewarding Returns" action plan (media reported as released on 2026-04-30, reporting date 2026-06-21): emphasizes a three-year shareholder return plan, stabilizing dividend frequency and increasing the dividend ratio in due course; during a long period of trading below net asset value, continues to implement the valuation enhancement plan, studies conducting share buybacks, seeks long-term capital/patient capital increases, and treats market value management as a long-term strategy. Limitation: the direct announcement text of this plan was not obtained in this search round, and the specific year of "April 30" is ambiguous (the text also cites 2026Q1 data, inferred to be 2026-04-30); it is recommended to verify against the original Shanghai Stock Exchange text before citing. Historical dividend reference: the 2024 distribution was RMB 1.78 per 10 shares (tax inclusive), record date 2025-07-17, ex-rights/ex-dividend date 2025-07-18.

4.9 Top Ten Shareholders Before the 2026 Interim Report: China Railway Engineering Group Limited Holds 47.38%

Top ten shareholders in the 2026 interim report (as of 2026-06-30): China Railway Engineering Group Limited 47.38% (11,623,119,890 shares, no pledge); HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED 16.36%; Guoxin Development Investment Management Co., Ltd. 3.03% (742,605,892 shares); Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited 0.97% (237,038,034 shares); Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd., China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd., BOC Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. 0.20%, natural person Yang Wei 0.17%, Guoxin Hongsheng Investment (Beijing) Co., Ltd., China Orient Asset Management Co., Ltd. 0.15%. No pledges/freezes were seen among the top ten shareholders. This search round did not find independent announcements of controlling shareholder increases, director/supervisor/senior management increases, or material shareholder reductions since 2026, nor did it obtain verifiable data on "main force capital net inflow/outflow." Limitation: this cannot be used to assert "no increases or decreases," but only indicates that this round of public search did not find them; it is recommended to verify on the Shanghai Stock Exchange announcement search page using the keywords "increase/reduction."

4.10 Senior Management Change: Chief Accountant Sun Cui Departed Due to Reaching Statutory Retirement Age

Announcement dated 2026-09-01 (Lin 2026-046): Chief Accountant Sun Cui departed due to reaching statutory retirement age, with departure date 2026-08-31 (original term until 2027-08-20), no longer holding any position; the company stated it would complete the appointment of a chief accountant as soon as possible, and the departure does not affect normal operations. Sources: Shanghai Securities News, Sina announcements. Key uncertainty to highlight: the "Board Secretary" field in the 2026 interim report summary shows "Chen Wenjian (performing the duties of Board Secretary on an interim basis)," and the email was changed to [email protected]; whereas third-party materials (AASTOCKS) previously listed the Board Secretary as "Ma Yonghong" with email [email protected]. This discrepancy suggests that a Board Secretary change occurred during 2026 (the original Board Secretary information was not fully presented in the research notes).

4.11 Target Confirmation: 601390 Is China Railway Group Limited, Listed in Both A and H Markets

A-share code 601390 = China Railway Group Limited, listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board, and also H-share 00390 (Hong Kong Stock Exchange), dual-listed in A+H, a Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect target. Controlling shareholder is China Railway Engineering Group Limited (state-owned legal person), holding 47.38%. Main business: engineering construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, distinctive real estate, asset operation, resource utilization, finance and trade, emerging businesses. Note: 601390 matches the name "China Railway Group" without error; do not confuse it with 601186 China Railway Construction.

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

Indicator	Value
Closing Price	RMB 4.39
Daily Change	Down RMB 0.06, decline of 1.35%
Intraday Price Range	Open RMB 4.43, high RMB 4.44, low RMB 4.37
Volume	Approximately 784,100 lots
Turnover	Approximately RMB 344 million
Turnover Rate	0.39%
Total Share Capital	Approximately 24.531 billion shares
Total Market Cap	Approximately RMB 107.69 billion
Dynamic P/E Ratio	Hithink approximately 6.29x; Lixinger approximately 5.54x, differing due to different statistical periods, TTM bases or update times
P/B Ratio	Approximately 0.33–0.34x
52-Week Price Range	RMB 4.13–6.47
Position of Share Price in 52-Week Range	Approximately 32.1% below the 52-week high of RMB 6.47 and approximately 6.3% above the 52-week low of RMB 4.13

5.2 Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Brief Interpretation
Recent Closing Price Trend	Mainly traded between RMB 4.30 and 4.46 from August 24 to September 11, 2026; closed at RMB 4.39 on September 11	Overall performance is low-level horizontal oscillation; staged highs repeatedly appeared near RMB 4.45–4.48, and there was some short-term support near RMB 4.29–4.35
MA5	Approximately RMB 4.41	The closing price of RMB 4.39 is below MA5, indicating weakening short-term momentum on the most recent trading day
MA10	Approximately RMB 4.40	The closing price is very close to MA10, and no obvious short-term direction has formed
MA20	Approximately RMB 4.38	The closing price is slightly above MA20, and the 20-day moving average temporarily provides relatively near support
Moving Average Combination	MA5, MA10 and MA20 concentrated at approximately RMB 4.38–4.41	Moving averages are highly concentrated, reflecting that the share price is in a narrow consolidation state rather than a strong one-way trend
MACD(12,26)	One technical snapshot on Investing.com was approximately 0.010, rated Buy; other refresh points showed approximately -0.01, rated Sell	The indicator is sensitive to calculation timing; combined with recent price action, it is more appropriate to interpret it as weak repair or oscillation near the zero line, and a medium-term trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed
RSI(14)	Technical snapshot on September 10, 2026 was approximately 57.557; other refresh points showed approximately 50.916	Momentum has repaired somewhat versus earlier, but has not yet entered an obvious overbought zone; affected by page refresh timing differences, it is only an auxiliary indicator
Bollinger Bands	Middle band approximately RMB 4.38, upper band approximately RMB 4.47, lower band approximately RMB 4.29	The closing price is slightly above the middle band and below the upper band, in the upper-middle part of the Bollinger Bands; this indicator is an estimate based on the closing prices of the recent 20 trading days
Recent Volume Expansion and Price Performance	Closed at RMB 4.42 on September 8, up 1.61%, turnover approximately RMB 610 million, turnover rate 0.68%; turnover from September 9 to 11 fell back to approximately RMB 312–374 million	Volume expanded and price rose on September 8, but subsequently did not effectively break above RMB 4.46; volume shrank and price fell on September 11, indicating short-term upside selling pressure remains
Main Force Capital	As of September 10, 2026, main force capital had a net outflow of approximately RMB 29.7881 million, accounting for approximately 0.10% of turnover; cumulative net inflow over the past 3 trading days was approximately RMB 48.3285 million	There was staged capital return around September 8, but it turned back to net outflow on September 10; there is a lack of cross-verifiable information on main force capital data for September 11, so no definitive judgment is made on that day's direction
Valuation and Fundamental Background	Dynamic PE approximately 6x, PB approximately 0.33–0.34x; H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders down 26.81% YoY	The share price is at the lower end of the 52-week range and clearly below net asset value per share, but a low PE does not equate to a reversal in short-term earnings and share price trends; judgment still needs to be combined with earnings recovery, orders, industry prosperity and capital flows

As of September 11, 2026, China Railway Group closed at RMB 4.39, with the share price at the lower end of the 52-week range. Recently the share price has mainly oscillated horizontally at low levels within RMB 4.30–4.46, with MA5, MA10 and MA20 concentrated at RMB 4.38–4.41 and Bollinger Bands at approximately RMB 4.29–4.47; the overall technical pattern is consolidation-oriented. On September 8, turnover expanded to approximately RMB 610 million and the price rose, but turnover subsequently fell back and the share price did not effectively break above RMB 4.46, so the volume-backed rise has not yet formed continuous confirmation. MACD is near the zero line, and RSI is near 50 or slightly above 50; neither shows a clear medium-term trend reversal signal. Recent turnover rate is low, and the top ten tradable shareholders are relatively concentrated; short-term price action still requires observation of the price reaction to key support and resistance levels and whether turnover can continue to expand.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario projection based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute a deterministic forecast of future trends.

① Key Technical Levels

Level	Range	Description
Short-Term Resistance	RMB 4.45–4.50	Corresponds to recent multiple rebound highs of RMB 4.45–4.48 and the Bollinger upper band at approximately RMB 4.47. If turnover clearly expands and the price effectively stands above RMB 4.48–4.50, short-term space toward approximately RMB 4.55 may open; if repeated rallies fail to break through, it may still return to the oscillation range.
First Support	RMB 4.34–4.39	Corresponds to recent multiple closing prices, lows around September 2 and September 7, and MA20 at approximately RMB 4.38. If it stabilizes in this range, the current pattern can still be understood as low-level sideways consolidation; if it effectively breaks below RMB 4.34, short-term weakness may further expand.
Strong Support	RMB 4.29–4.33	Corresponds to recent intraday lows, the Bollinger lower band at approximately RMB 4.29, and the low-level area formed around August 21 and August 24. If it breaks below RMB 4.29 on volume, the next step may test the RMB 4.20–4.29 area and the 52-week low near RMB 4.13, but this is a stress scenario, not a baseline forecast.

② Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

Oscillating consolidation (relatively high subjective weight, approximately 60%; this weight is a subjective heuristic judgment based on the current technical pattern and capital flows, not a statistical probability.): Price range approximately RMB 4.34–4.46. Trigger conditions include: the share price continues to oscillate around MA5, MA10 and MA20 at approximately RMB 4.38–4.41; turnover remains at the recent normal level of approximately RMB 300–450 million; RMB 4.34 is not effectively broken below, while resistance at RMB 4.46–4.48 is not broken above on volume; and no obvious trend-driven market move appears in the engineering construction or infrastructure central state-owned enterprise sector.
Weaker downside (medium subjective weight; this judgment is a heuristic weight based on the current technical pattern and capital flows, not a statistical probability.): Price range approximately RMB 4.29–4.34. Trigger conditions include: the closing price continuously breaks below RMB 4.34; main force capital continues to flow out net while turnover expands and the share price closes lower; the broader market or the construction central state-owned enterprise sector weakens in tandem; and the Bollinger lower band and prior lows near RMB 4.29 are breached. If the above occurs, technically it may further seek support in the RMB 4.20–4.29 area, with RMB 4.13 as the 52-week low reference level.
Rebound strengthening (low-to-medium subjective weight; this judgment is a heuristic weight based on the current technical pattern and capital flows, not a statistical probability.): Price range approximately RMB 4.46–4.55. Trigger conditions include: the share price breaks above RMB 4.46–4.48 on volume; single-day turnover is clearly above the recent average of approximately RMB 400 million and can be sustained continuously after the breakout; main force capital shifts from net outflow to continuous net inflow; and the infrastructure, engineering construction or central state-owned enterprise heavyweight sectors strengthen in tandem, or company news that improves market expectations appears. Only if it breaks above RMB 4.50 and receives volume confirmation is it more likely to move toward the next resistance area near RMB 4.55 in the short term; if it only rallies without volume, the breakout is insufficiently valid.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

From September 1 to September 11, 2026, daily turnover was approximately RMB 312–610 million, with a 9-trading-day average of approximately RMB 400 million; turnover rate was approximately 0.35%–0.68%, with most trading days at 0.35%–0.50% and September 8 expanding to 0.68%. As of June 30, 2026, the top ten tradable shareholders held a total of approximately 17.148 billion shares, accounting for approximately 69.91% of tradable shares; Hithink data shows institutional holdings totaled approximately 1.825 billion shares, accounting for approximately 8.98% of the float, of which fund holdings were approximately 355 million shares, accounting for approximately 1.56% of the float, and other institutional holdings were approximately 1.470 billion shares, accounting for approximately 7.23% of the float. The top ten shareholders include China Railway Engineering Group Limited, HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED, Guoxin Development Investment Management Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited and Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd., among others; the controlling shareholder and state-owned background shareholders occupy the main share, while public funds and other market-oriented institutions account for a relatively limited proportion of the float. Shareholder structure data is as of June 30, 2026, lagging the September 11, 2026 price data by about three months; the structure may have changed during the period and can only be used as a medium-to-short-term chip background reference. Combined with low turnover and relatively high concentration, actual trading may show insufficient daily trading activity, a trend launch requiring relatively obvious capital impetus, and a relatively noticeable impact of large orders on short-term prices when turnover is low.

A checkable volume confirmation signal is: if single-day turnover reaches or continuously exceeds RMB 500 million in the coming week while the share price holds above RMB 4.46–4.48, it can be regarded as an increase in short-term capital participation versus the recent norm; if turnover continues below approximately RMB 300 million, the sustainability of breakout or decline signals still needs cautious observation.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

Observe whether RMB 4.34–4.39 can continue to play the role of first support; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
Observe whether the RMB 4.46–4.50 resistance zone sees a volume breakout; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
Observe whether the RMB 4.29–4.33 strong support zone is broken below on volume; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
Observe whether turnover rises from the recent average of approximately RMB 400 million to above RMB 500 million and coordinates with price direction; also watch whether main force capital shifts from staged net outflow to continuous net inflow. The above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.

The above scenario projection is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026 and historical prices and technical indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital flows and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Warnings

Traditional engineering construction business accounted for 85.47% of 2026 interim revenue, but its gross profit margin was only 7.09%; within this, the railway business gross profit margin was 5.05%. If project settlement, cost control or project profitability improvement falls short of expectations, the company's overall profit may continue to come under pressure.
H1 2026 net cash flow from operating activities was negative RMB 86.661 billion, further deteriorating from negative RMB 79.630 billion in the prior-year same period; against the background of an asset-liability ratio of 77.45%, if receivables, contract assets and project settlement collections fall short of expectations, capital turnover and financial management pressure may increase.
Order growth is uncertain: H1 2026 new contract signings fell 9.3% year-on-year, overseas new signings fell 43.5%, and design consulting and asset operation new signings fell 23.0% and 83.2%, respectively; the company also disclosed that there are currently no major projects signed but not yet executed, and the sustainability of future revenue growth needs to be verified by order conversion.
The company's H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders fell 26.81% year-on-year, net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items fell 30.97% year-on-year, and the net profit margin fell to 2.10%; if non-recurring gains decrease or main business profitability continues to decline, the profit decline may further expand.
Although resource utilization business new contract signings grew 50.8% year-on-year in H1 2026 and the 2025 interim separately reported gross profit margin was relatively high, the scale of this business is still relatively small compared with engineering construction; if resource business growth and profit realization fall short of expectations, its hedging effect on the company's overall performance may be limited.
Distinctive real estate had 2026 interim revenue of RMB 11.05 billion and a gross profit margin of 6.90%, and H1 2026 new contract signings fell 4.4% year-on-year; if real estate project de-stocking, settlement or capital recovery comes under pressure, it may drag on the company's related business revenue and cash flow.
The company's Chief Accountant departed on August 31, 2026 due to reaching statutory retirement age, and the company stated it would complete the appointment as soon as possible; meanwhile, the interim report shows that the Board Secretary duties are performed by Chen Wenjian on an interim basis. Changes in relevant management positions may increase staged governance and information disclosure matters of concern.
The share price recently oscillated in a narrow low range of RMB 4.30–4.46; after a volume-backed rise on September 8, it did not effectively break above RMB 4.46, and on September 11 turnover fell back and the price declined; if the RMB 4.29–4.33 area is broken below on volume, the share price may further test the RMB 4.20–4.29 area and the 52-week low near RMB 4.13.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

China Railway Group's core growth logic lies in its engineering construction foundation, central state-owned enterprise background and relatively large scale of business on hand, while resource utilization, equipment manufacturing and emerging businesses such as water conservancy and hydropower, clean energy and ecological environmental protection maintain growth in new signings, which may provide structural supplementation during a period when the traditional infrastructure business is under pressure. The relatively high gross profit margin of the resource utilization segment also gives it the potential to improve the overall profit structure.

However, a short-term operating inflection point still needs more data verification. In H1 2026, revenue, new signed orders and net profit attributable to shareholders all declined year-on-year; engineering construction accounted for a high proportion of revenue with a low gross profit margin, and net cash flow from operating activities saw a large net outflow; the asset-liability ratio was 77.45%, and capital occupation related to receivables and contract assets also requires continued attention. In the future, focus should be on whether the decline in orders can narrow, whether the profitability of traditional engineering business improves, whether resources and emerging businesses can continue to be realized, and whether operating cash flow can recover.

The low valuation, buyback cancellation and interim dividend provide some support to market expectations, but a low P/E and low P/B do not equate to a reversal in the earnings trend. Technically, the area near RMB 4.34–4.39 is an important recent observation range, and there is resistance near RMB 4.45–4.50; whether turnover can continue to exceed the recent norm of approximately RMB 400 million will affect whether low-level oscillation can evolve into a trend repair.

Data Sources

Reports are generated by AI from public online information and may contain errors or outdated information. They are for research only, not investment advice. Verify material facts against company filings and authoritative sources.