Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (Ronbay Technology) (688005)

Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Lithium Battery Cathode Materials | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Closing price on September 11, 2026 (most recent trading day); data retrieval time approximately mid-September 2026, all price/capital flow data are snapshots of that day.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Ronbay Technology achieved operating revenue of RMB 8.72 billion in H1 2026, up 39.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 110 million, up 260% year-on-year, and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 100 million, up 228.2% year-on-year. Gross margin increased 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 9.4%, of which Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 100 million, up 743% quarter-on-quarter, forming a clear earnings inflection point after the full-year 2025 net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 187 million (the first annual loss since listing). This is currently the most decision-relevant fact: the company has returned to profitability from a loss-making range, and the improvement is accelerating on a quarterly basis.

The source of performance improvement is mainly the recovery in ternary cathode material sales volume and product mix upgrading. In H1 2026, ternary sales volume was 52,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase; Q2 shipments were 29,000 tons, up 26% quarter-on-quarter; the 9-series high-nickel shipment proportion rose to 35%, and per-ton net profit improved significantly quarter-on-quarter. According to its 2025 annual report, the company's ternary materials ranked first globally in shipment volume for four consecutive years, and its lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) power battery market shipment scale ranked first in the industry. It has also deployed lithium iron phosphate (LFP), sodium-ion battery cathodes, and solid-state battery cathode materials, forming a platform-based structure across all technology routes.

However, the profit improvement comes with a clear working capital cost. In H1 2026, operating cash flow was -RMB 170 million, and inventory at the end of Q2 was RMB 4.36 billion, up significantly by 104.2% from the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, in March 2026, the company initiated a restructuring of its Korean business; after completion, it is expected to hold only 24.9% equity in the Korean business, which may have a structural impact on subsequent consolidation scope and profit attribution. The cash flow advantage of 2025, when net operating cash inflow was RMB 1.135 billion, up 116.89% year-on-year, reversed in H1 2026, which is the key to understanding the divergence between the income statement and cash flow statement for this period.

At the technical and market level, as of the close on September 11, 2026, the company's stock price was RMB 22.91, down 4.50% on the day. The intraday low of RMB 22.50 marked the 52-week range low. The stock price is below all short- and medium-term moving averages: MA5 (RMB 24.04), MA10 (RMB 24.55), and MA20 (RMB 25.60). MACD formed a death cross below the zero line on August 20 and has remained weak since. The average chip cost of RMB 28.98 is significantly above the current price. The stock has fallen 22.37% over the past year and 35.28% year-to-date. There is a clear divergence between the quarterly improvement in fundamentals and the continued weakness in the stock price.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Ternary cathode materials (NCM811/NCA/Ni90 and above ultra-high-nickel/medium-nickel high-voltage series)
• Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials
• Lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) cathode materials (pure-use/blended series)
• Sodium-ion cathode materials (layered oxide and polyanion series)
• Ternary precursors

2.3 Industry Chain Position and Cost-Profit Structure

Ronbay Technology is positioned in the midstream cathode material segment of the lithium battery industry chain, procuring nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium, phosphorus, and other bulk raw materials upstream, with downstream customers being power battery manufacturers (CATL is the core customer). The overall pattern presents a "two-way squeeze from upstream resource end and downstream battery manufacturers." The company operates in a processing/technology-intensive thin-margin segment, not the high-margin upstream resource end.

• Main Procurement Items: Nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium, phosphorus, and other bulk raw materials (Source: Company 2025 Annual Report "Procurement Model"). The company has established the "Ronbay Tongshang" platform and its subsidiary "Ronbay Shangsha" to coordinate global bulk raw material/equipment supply chain development, strategic procurement, and processing operations, and maintains long-term strategic cooperation with multiple core upstream suppliers while advancing resource project investment and development.
• Supplier Concentration: Specific disclosed figures were not found in the research notes; top five supplier proportion data is missing and cannot be provided.
• Pricing Power Assessment: Nickel/cobalt/lithium/phosphorus are bulk commodities, and cathode material companies are generally price takers, with costs fluctuating with the market. The company itself states it "strengthens strategic procurement and refined operations to cope with significant raw material fluctuations." Peer research also notes that in the cathode segment, "suppliers have strong bargaining power, and raw material price fluctuations significantly impact industry costs" (Forward Industry Research Institute 2026 Competitive Landscape Report).
• Core Customers: CATL, as well as BYD, LG Chem, Tianjin Lishen, Farasis Energy, etc. (Source: SSE profile, Cailian Press).
• Customer Concentration: In 2025, top five customer sales were RMB 9.532 billion, accounting for 77.7% of annual sales, with the largest customer accounting for 55.12%. This data source is a media paraphrase of the annual report by Changjiang Times/Tonghuashun on 2026-04-14; the original annual report was not directly verified. It is recommended to cross-check with the latest annual report's "Major Customers" section. Historical data: 2019 top five 80.86%, largest 49.14%; 2021 top five 84.17%, largest (CATL) 63.08% (Source: Jiemian News, Huaxi Securities reprinted article).
• Structural Bargaining Dynamics: The power battery industry is highly concentrated (CATL holds over half the market share), and cathode material companies are in a "two-way squeeze from upstream resource end and downstream battery manufacturers" pattern; this is especially pronounced in the LFP segment, where in H2 2025 the industry saw a "downstream price pressure, processing fee increase of RMB 1,000-3,000/ton" game (Huaxia Energy Network 2026-01-16). Ronbay has high dependence on a single major customer, resulting in weak bargaining power.
• Large Orders (to be viewed with caution): On 2026-01-13, the company announced an LFP procurement cooperation with CATL, with total supply of approximately 3.05 million tons from 2026Q1 to 2031 and a total agreement value exceeding RMB 120 billion. The company subsequently clarified that "the agreement did not stipulate a procurement amount; RMB 120 billion is the company's estimate" and twice delayed its response to the SSE inquiry letter. The RMB 120 billion is an estimated value, not a mandatory amount, and the market is skeptical about its feasibility.
• Research notes were unable to retrieve cross-verifiable data on absolute accounts receivable amounts, accounts receivable turnover days, prepayments/accounts payable details, and other working capital data. A referenceable cash flow signal: 2025 net operating cash inflow of RMB 1.135 billion (Source: Company 2025 Annual Report Summary). There is a gap in working capital evidence; it is recommended to supplement from the annual report's "Accounts Receivable/Aging/Turnover Days" section, and no conclusion is drawn here.
• Customer Concentration: In 2025, top five customers collectively accounted for 77.7%, with the largest customer at 55.12%. The data source is a media (Changjiang Times/Tonghuashun 2026-04-14) paraphrase of the annual report, which could not be cross-verified; please refer to the latest annual report for specifics. Historical concentration: 2019 top five 80.86%, largest 49.14%; 2021 top five 84.17%, largest 63.08%. Supplier Concentration: No specific disclosed figures were found in the retrieved public sources; data is missing.

Ronbay Technology is positioned in the midstream cathode material segment of the lithium battery industry chain (middle of the smile curve, processing/technology-intensive thin-margin zone), not the high-margin upstream resource end. Its gross margin elasticity mainly comes from product mix upgrading (increasing proportion of high-nickel/ultra-high-nickel, LMFP, sodium-ion) and volume ramp-up of high-margin overseas customers, rather than pricing power over upstream and downstream — upstream nickel, cobalt, lithium, and phosphorus are bulk commodities where the company is a price taker, and downstream battery manufacturers such as CATL are highly concentrated with strong bargaining power. Therefore, profit improvement relies more on "structural upgrading + overseas localization + cost control" rather than pricing power.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The above data sources are the respective period reports/commentaries noted in the research notes, with dates as marked by the sources; this batch of data spans from 2023 to the 2026 interim report, with the latest disclosed reporting period being the 2026 interim report (disclosed approximately 2026-07-24). The 2026H1 earnings forecast (2026-07-07, unaudited) estimated net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 100-120 million and non-GAAP of RMB 90-110 million, consistent with the actual disclosed interim report net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 110 million. 2026H1 non-GAAP net profit was RMB 100 million, +228.2% YoY; 2026H1 gross margin was 9.4%, +0.8pct YoY; 2026Q2 gross margin was 9.4%; 2026Q1 gross margin was 9.43%. 2024 non-GAAP net profit was RMB 244 million, -52.64% YoY; gross margin 10.02%; weighted ROE 3.46%; EPS approximately RMB 0.41-0.42; 2023 EPS RMB 0.8128. 2025H1 prior-year non-GAAP net profit was -RMB 79.3053 million, EPS -RMB 0.10. 2025 operating cash flow net amount was RMB 1.135 billion, +116.89% YoY; year-end total assets RMB 22.968 billion, net assets RMB 7.995 billion. 2026H1 operating cash flow was -RMB 170 million; Q2-end inventory RMB 4.36 billion, +104.2% from beginning of year. 2026H1 ternary sales volume 52,000 tons (slight YoY increase); Q2 shipments 29,000 tons (+26% QoQ); 2025 ternary shipments approximately 100,000 tons (some sources say 120,000 tons, reflecting a caliber difference). There is a contradiction in 2024 EPS figures: the 2025-02-14 earnings flash report listed basic EPS of RMB 0.61, while the annual report/East Money converted to RMB 0.41-0.42 based on the latest share capital, possibly due to stock dividends/share capital changes during the reporting period; the specific ex-rights matters were not cross-verified and are marked as pending verification.

The company's 2024 revenue declined 33.41% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders declined 49.06% YoY. In 2025, revenue continued to decline 18.69% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders was -RMB 187 million, the first annual loss since listing, mainly due to ternary material product upgrading and transitional pressure on sales volume. A clear inflection point appeared in 2026: Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 11.6007 million, +175.18% YoY, achieving profitability for two consecutive quarters; Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 100 million, +743% QoQ, driving 26H1 net profit attributable to shareholders to RMB 110 million, +260% YoY, non-GAAP RMB 100 million, +228.2% YoY, with gross margin up 0.8pct YoY to 9.4%. The performance improvement was accompanied by moderate growth in ternary sales volume (26H1 sales volume 52,000 tons, slight YoY increase; Q2 shipments 29,000 tons, +26% QoQ) and a significant QoQ improvement in per-ton net profit. Points to note: 26H1 operating cash flow was -RMB 170 million; Q2-end inventory was RMB 4.36 billion, up significantly by 104.2% from the beginning of the year, indicating a notable increase in working capital occupation. In March 2026, the company initiated a restructuring of its Korean business; after completion, it is expected to hold only 24.9% equity in the Korean business, which may have a structural impact on subsequent consolidation scope and profit attribution.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

The above table is East Money earnings forecast summary at Time Point A (trailing six-month average, 4 institutions), corresponding to PE of approximately 45.6x/23.4x/13.8x (2028 sample only 2 institutions). Another snapshot at Time Point B (trailing six-month average, 5 institutions) is: 2026E EPS RMB 0.54/net profit RMB 409.6 million/revenue RMB 18.38 billion; 2027E EPS RMB 1.098/net profit RMB 784.4 million/revenue RMB 24.01 billion; 2028E EPS RMB 1.51/net profit RMB 1.079 billion/revenue RMB 29.28 billion (2028: 4 institutions). The discrepancy between the two snapshots indicates different numbers of covering institutions and time points; the 2028 sample has only 1-4 institutions, with low consensus, and cannot be regarded as a robust multi-institution consensus. Major brokerage details: Soochow Securities (2026-07-24, Buy) 26-27E net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 400/800 million (previously RMB 460/850 million, downgraded due to low H1 capacity utilization), added 28E RMB 1 billion, EPS RMB 0.56/1.14/1.46, corresponding PE 48x/24x/19x; CICC (2026-05-01, Outperform) downgraded 26E net profit attributable to shareholders by 22% to RMB 388 million, first introduced 27E RMB 810 million; Huaan Securities (2026-05-12/05-11, Buy) 26/27/28E net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 498/974/1,509 million, corresponding PE 56x/29x/19x; Changjiang Securities (2026-05-25) EPS RMB 0.58/1.33/2.13 (2026/27/28E); Nomura Orient International Securities (2026-04-12) EPS RMB 0.75/1.33/2.11, target price RMB 36.0; UBS (2026-08-18) downgraded 2026 net profit forecast by 35%, upgraded 2027-28 net profit forecast by approximately 6%, stating its 2027-28 net profit expectations are 30-38% above Wind consensus. Tonghuashun iFinD summary (2026-07-24, covering 5 institutions over trailing six months) 2026 net profit forecast high RMB 641 million, low RMB 388 million, average RMB 469 million.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

Stock price references exist at multiple different time points: the UBS report cited a closing price of RMB 27.68 on 2026-08-17; the etnet page shows approximately RMB 24.35 (update date 2026-07-21); the Baidu Finance page shows a "current price" of RMB 22.91 (date not marked, suspected to be an earlier snapshot). Market cap: etnet caliber approximately RMB 18.85 billion (as of around 2026-07-21). PE: based on 2025 actual net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 187 million, TTM PE is negative; based on 2026E average net profit of approximately RMB 410-470 million, corresponding PE is approximately 43-48x; based on 2027E net profit of approximately RMB 780-890 million, corresponding PE is approximately 22-25x. PB/net assets per share: 2025 year-end net assets per share RMB 11.19 (East Money caliber), etnet net assets per share RMB 11.186, 2024 annual report caliber PB(LF) approximately 1.58x. Target price: Tonghuashun iFinD summary (2026-07-24, covering 5 institutions over trailing six months) 2026 target price high RMB 36.50, low RMB 36.00, average RMB 36.25; Baidu Finance summary target average price RMB 29.75, high RMB 36.50, low RMB 23.00; CICC target price RMB 36.50, Nomura Orient target price RMB 36.00, UBS target price RMB 38 (previously RMB 26, raised 46%). Rating distribution: Tonghuashun iFinD shows 3 "Buy," 1 "Neutral," 1 "Outperform"; East Money rating statistics show within 6 months 4 institutions (2 Buy/1 Overweight/1 Neutral), composite "Overweight"; within 1 year 9 institutions (4 Buy/3 Overweight/2 Neutral). Note: this batch of data simultaneously includes the 2024 annual report, 2025 annual report, and 2026 interim report, and forecast calibers diverge significantly (the same "trailing six-month average" East Money two snapshots are inconsistent; the 2028 sample has only 1-4 institutions, with low consensus, and cannot be regarded as a robust multi-institution consensus); UBS forecasts deviate significantly from Wind consensus (2027-28 net profit 30-38% higher), representing a relatively optimistic single-institution view; market cap and stock price show slight mismatch (etnet shows total share capital of 714,618,752 shares, market cap of RMB 18.8516 billion; converted at RMB 24.35, this implies approximately 774 million shares, slightly different from the listed total share capital, possibly due to timing/caliber differences, marked as pending verification); the current price has not been confirmed by a single authoritative time point, and the corresponding date must be noted when citing PE ranges.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Due to Disclosure Violations Regarding the CATL "RMB 120 Billion Mega Order," the Company and Relevant Responsible Persons Were Fined a Total of RMB 9.5 Million

On January 9, 2026, the company signed a "Lithium Iron Phosphate Cathode Material Procurement Cooperation Agreement" with CATL (300750). On the evening of January 13, 2026, the company issued an "Announcement on Signing a Major Daily Operating Contract with CATL," disclosing that from Q1 2026 through 2031, it would supply CATL with an estimated total of 3.05 million tons of LFP cathode materials for the domestic region, with total agreement sales value exceeding RMB 120 billion. On the evening of January 13, 2026, the SSE issued an inquiry letter, and the company's stock was suspended for 3 consecutive trading days from January 14-16. On January 18, 2026, the company disclosed receipt of the CSRC's "Case Filing Notice" for suspected misleading statements in the major contract announcement. On January 19, 2026, the company resumed trading and responded to the inquiry letter, stating that "the RMB 120 billion total contract amount is the company's estimate" and "the sales amount is uncertain." From resumption of trading to February 6, the stock price cumulatively fell approximately 19.49%. On the evening of February 6, 2026, the company received the Ningbo Securities Regulatory Bureau's "Prior Notice of Administrative Penalty," proposing to warn and fine the company RMB 4.5 million, warn and fine Bai Houshan RMB 3 million, and warn and fine Yu Jiyun RMB 2 million, totaling RMB 9.5 million. On April 10, 2026, the company received the Ningbo Securities Regulatory Bureau's "Administrative Penalty Decision" and the SSE's "Disciplinary Action Decision," and the penalties were finalized: the company was warned and fined RMB 4.5 million, Bai Houshan was warned and fined RMB 3 million, and Yu Jiyun was warned and fined RMB 2 million, totaling RMB 9.5 million. The SSE publicly censured the company, Bai Houshan, and Yu Jiyun. Regulators identified four misleading statements: first, the "Cooperation Agreement" did not stipulate a total sales amount, and "exceeding RMB 120 billion" was the company's own estimate, without fully disclosing the calculation basis and uncertainty risks such as raw material price fluctuations; second, the agreement stipulated procurement volume as "no less than 70% of the 305 million ton forecast," ultimately subject to subsequent framework/annual/individual procurement contracts signed by both parties, and the company failed to disclose this important lower limit; third, the agreement's validity period was until December 31, 2030, not "through 2031" as stated in the announcement; fourth, the agreement made "Ronbay Technology meeting comprehensive competitiveness requirements (policy requirements, commercial terms, product quality, material performance indicators, delivery time and quantity, etc.)" a precondition for CATL's performance, which was not disclosed in the announcement. The company's announcement also stated that it judged this information disclosure violation did not touch other risk warning circumstances or major violation mandatory delisting circumstances. In addition, on June 13, 2026, the company disclosed the "Announcement on Reply to the Regulatory Inquiry Letter Regarding the 2025 Annual Report Information Disclosure" (classified as a "violation" category announcement), indicating that annual report information disclosure is still subject to regulatory inquiry; the specific concerns of the inquiry letter were not obtained in full text, and it cannot be confirmed whether it is the same matter as the above penalty.

4.2 2025 Annual Earnings Flash Report and Annual Report: First Annual Loss Since Listing

The February 27, 2026 earnings flash report showed 2025 total operating revenue of RMB 12.271 billion, -18.67% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 182.4 million, -161.64% YoY; non-GAAP -RMB 214 million, -187.80% YoY. The official annual report on April 10/11, 2026 showed operating revenue of RMB 12.267 billion, -18.69% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 187 million (prior-year period +RMB 296 million), -163.34% YoY; non-GAAP -RMB 217 million, -188.96% YoY; sales gross margin 7.41%; this was the company's first annual loss since listing, due to ternary materials being in an upgrade and transition period with transitional pressure on sales volume. Note the caliber difference: the flash report (-RMB 182 million/-161.64%) and annual report final value (-RMB 187 million/-163.34%) are inconsistent, which is a normal difference between flash report and audited annual report; please refer to the annual report (disclosed April 11, 2026). For 2025, no cash dividend, no bonus shares, and no capital reserve conversion are planned, due to negative net profit attributable to shareholders and the need to retain funds for globalization layout, technology upgrading, and capacity construction.

4.3 2026 Interim Earnings Forecast and Interim Report: Turned Profitable

On July 7, 2026, the company voluntarily disclosed its 2026 interim earnings forecast, expecting to turn profitable in January-June 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 100-120 million, and non-GAAP approximately RMB 90-110 million. On July 23, 2026, it disclosed the 2026 interim report: net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 109.4 million, +259.95% YoY, basic EPS RMB 0.16; 2026H1 revenue of RMB 8.721 billion, +39.57% YoY; the 9-series high-nickel shipment proportion rose to 35%. Note: the 2026 interim report also disclosed on the same day announcements including "Provision for Asset Impairment," "Regarding Reduction of Registered Capital and Amendment of the Articles of Association," and "2026 'Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement with Rewards' Action Plan Semi-Annual Assessment Report"; the 2026 interim report also had "no distribution, no conversion." The interim report's detailed breakdown data was not obtained in original text for verification.

4.4 Restricted Stock Repurchase Cancellation and Registered Capital Reduction

On July 17, 2026, an announcement stated that 106,700 restricted shares were repurchased at RMB 28/share and cancelled; the progress was completed implementation, belonging to the repurchase cancellation of part of the first category restricted shares under the 2021 restricted stock incentive plan. On July 22, 2026, an announcement was made "Regarding Reduction of Registered Capital and Amendment of the Articles of Association," consistent with the aforementioned repurchase cancellation. Historical repurchase timeline: On June 18, 2024, 1.194 million restricted shares were repurchased at RMB 23.41-34.97/share and cancelled; June-July 2024 centralized bidding repurchase (purpose: cancellation, repurchase price not exceeding RMB 41.68/share, June 22 to September 22, 2024, completed); on February 12, 2025, 29,800 restricted shares were repurchased at RMB 19.42-23.11/share and cancelled. This retrieval did not confirm any 2026 reduction announcements by controlling shareholders, actual controllers, or shareholders holding 5% or more, nor did it find any new centralized bidding repurchase plans in 2026; these two points are pending verification gaps.

4.5 Investment, M&A, and Capacity Announcements

On April 16, 2026, an announcement was made "Regarding Investment in Construction of LFP Precursor and LFP Materials." On July 30/31, 2026, multiple investments were disclosed in a concentrated manner: first, "Announcement on Investment in Construction of Xiantao Annual 300,000-Ton Sodium-Ion Cathode Material Integrated Project"; second, "Announcement on Joint Investment with Related Party to Establish Controlled Subsidiary and Related-Party Transaction," proposing to jointly establish "Hubei Ronbay Sodium-Ion New Energy Technology Co., Ltd." with Shanghai Dingna Xintu Enterprise Management Partnership (proposed), with the company contributing RMB 49 million for 70% equity, and Dingna Xintu Management contributing RMB 21 million for 30% equity, to be consolidated after establishment; third, "Announcement on Progress of Signing the 'Project Investment Contract' and External Investment"; fourth, "Announcement of Resolutions of the 18th Meeting of the Third Board of Directors." Regarding LFP M&A, the company acquired Guizhou Xinren New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. through equity transfer and capital increase, ultimately holding 93.2034% equity, entering and expanding the LFP track with a "one-step process" technology (2025 annual report caliber). Regarding sodium-ion cooperation, the company stated in its 2025 annual report and multiple announcements that it has reached cooperation with CATL on sodium-ion cathodes, becoming its "first supplier of sodium-ion cathode powder materials" and signing a long-term cooperation agreement.

4.6 Technology, Business Progress, and Overseas Capacity-Related Announcements and News

On September 11, 2026, the company disclosed 2026H1 revenue of RMB 8.721 billion (+39.57% YoY), with the 9-series high-nickel shipment proportion rising to 35%; solid-state battery cathode materials received favorable customer testing feedback, with production lines compatible with existing equipment, expected to reach hundred-ton-level demand this year; a ten-ton-level solid-state electrolyte production line is planned to be completed within the year. On September 11, 2026, media reported that the company newly obtained multiple invention patent authorizations (such as "A Cathode Material and Its Preparation Method, Lithium-Ion Battery," "A Ternary Cathode Material Precursor and Its Preparation Method and Application," "A Negative Electrode Sheet for Solid-State Batteries and Its Preparation Method and Battery"); year-to-date cumulative patent authorizations totaled 66, +8.2% YoY; 2026H1 R&D investment was RMB 210 million, -4.27% YoY. Patent data comes from Tianyancha, a third-party data source. Export/policy-related: In the Q3 earnings briefing materials, the company stated it "supports Announcement No. 58 issued by the Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs, and will conduct domestic and overseas business operations within the scope permitted by policies and regulations," with main product domestic and overseas sales unaffected, and overseas capacity scarcity enhanced; the specific content and document number of Announcement No. 58 were not independently verified, only paraphrasing the company's statement. Overseas capacity progress: Chungju, South Korea has completed 60,000 tons/year ternary cathode + 6,000 tons/year precursor; Poland's 25,000 tons/year ternary cathode is expected to commence production in H1 2026 (later statements indicate completion in H2 2026 and entering customer certification; there is a time discrepancy in calibers, please refer to subsequent announcements).

4.7 Governance and Other Announcements

On May 9, 2026, resolutions of the 16th Meeting of the Third Board of Directors; on the same day, an announcement was made "Regarding Resignation of Board Secretary and Appointment of Board Secretary," with a change in board secretary. The previous board secretary was Yu Jiyun, who was also one of the responsible persons for this penalty; whether this is related to the departure cannot be confirmed from available information. On December 31, 2025, the announcement of resolutions of the 2025 Second Extraordinary General Meeting. On April 11, 2026, disclosures included the 2025 annual report, 2025 annual profit distribution plan, notice of convening the 2025 annual general meeting, special report on the deposit and use of 2025 raised funds, cash management using part of idle raised funds, and 2026 application for comprehensive credit facilities and provision of guarantees by the company and subsidiaries. On May 6, 2026, announcement of postponement of the 2025 annual general meeting (postponed from May 8 to May 20); on May 21, 2026, announcement of resolutions of the 2025 annual general meeting. On June 19, 2026, announcement regarding convening the 2025 Annual and 2026 Q1 Earnings Briefing. Regarding governance structure, the supervisory board was abolished during the reporting period, with the Board of Directors' Audit Committee exercising supervisory board functions; Tianjian Certified Public Accountants issued a standard unqualified internal control audit report.

4.8 Number of Shareholders and Capital Market Trading Data

Number of shareholders: 40,121 as of June 30, 2026 (down 94 from June 10, 2026); 40,215 as of June 10, 2026 (up 893 from April 30, 2026); 39,322 as of April 30, 2026 (up 2,475 from March 31, 2026, +6.72%); 36,847 as of March 31, 2026 (down 830 from December 31, 2025); 37,677 as of December 31, 2025 (down 2,162 from September 30, 2025, -5.43%). Top ten shareholders: the etnet data page shows the largest shareholder as "Shanghai Ronbay New Energy Investment Enterprise (Limited Partnership)," with a shareholding ratio of 26.89%, shareholding date marked as 30/06/2026 (the page update date is marked 21/07/2026; the date scale is somewhat unusual and should be used with caution). Margin trading: September 8, 2026 margin balance RMB 1.641 billion, margin net buying -RMB 26.02 million; September 7, 2026 balance RMB 1.667 billion, net buying -RMB 1.218 million; September 4, 2026 balance RMB 1.668 billion, net buying -RMB 26.39 million; September 3, 2026 balance RMB 1.694 billion, net buying -RMB 13.47 million; September 2, 2026 balance RMB 1.708 billion, net buying +RMB 6.318 million; recent margin funds have generally shown net outflow. Stock price reference (for news background only, not the focus): February 27, 2026 closing price RMB 31.75/share, market cap RMB 22.693 billion; February 6, 2026 closing price RMB 30.07/share, market cap RMB 21.492 billion; iwencai concept page shows Ronbay Technology at RMB 25.53 (-0.16%, date unknown, possibly an earlier snapshot); these are data at different time points and cannot be directly compared.

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the close on September 11, 2026, Ronbay Technology traded at RMB 22.91, down 4.50% on the day, with the intraday low of RMB 22.50 marking the 52-week range low, at the lower end of the 52-week range. The stock price is below all short- and medium-term moving averages: MA5 (24.04), MA10 (24.55), and MA20 (25.60), showing a bearish alignment. MACD formed a death cross below the zero line on August 20 and continues to decline weakly. KDJ (D value 8.98) and short-period RSI suggest oversold conditions, but the average chip cost of RMB 28.98 is significantly above the current price, and the overall technical picture is weak. On the capital flow side, main force funds continue to show net outflow (net outflow on each day from September 4 to September 11, with a total net outflow of RMB 65.407 million for the week). The margin trading balance of RMB 1.629 billion accounts for 9.95% of the circulating market cap (far above the market average of 3.95%), with leveraged funds recently bearish. Overall, the short term is in an oversold state after a weak decline; a rebound would require increased volume and a reversal in main force funds, with no confirmation signal yet to reverse the short-term weakness.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The cathode material industry "has moved away from high fragmentation but has not formed an absolute leader," with 2024 production-based CR3 of approximately 21.9% and CR5 of approximately 29.4% (Forward Industry Research Institute, 2026-04). Regarding global ternary material share, Chinese companies' share rose from 63.8% in 2024 to 74.4% in 2025 (Forward/Industry Research, 2026-09-06). Ronbay Technology self-reports that its ternary materials have ranked first globally in shipment volume for four consecutive years, and its LMFP power battery market shipment scale ranks first in the industry (Company 2025 Annual Report).

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Industry Concentration: 2024 production-based CR3 approximately 21.9%, CR5 approximately 29.4% (Forward Industry Research Institute, 2026-04); the industry has not yet formed an absolute leader.
• 2021 Ternary Material Market Share: Ronbay Technology 14% (first), Easpring Technology 12%, Tianjin Bamo (Huayou system) 12%, Changyuan Lico 9%, Zhenhua New Material 8%, Nantong Ruixiang 7%, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy 6%.
• 2024 Overall Cathode Material (by production) Share: GEM 9.84%, Dynanonic 7.63%, Ronbay Technology 4.43% (Forward).
• Company Self-Report: Ternary materials ranked first globally in shipment volume for four consecutive years; LMFP power battery market shipment scale ranked first in the industry (Company 2025 Annual Report).
• Global Ternary Material Share: Chinese companies' share rose from 63.8% in 2024 to 74.4% in 2025 (Forward/Industry Research, 2026-09-06).
• Some market share data are from third-party research institutions (Forward/QYResearch), not official disclosures, and different reports use different statistical dimensions (by production/by shipment/by revenue), resulting in significant differences; attention should be paid to calibers when making horizontal comparisons.

6.3 Major Competitors

Among the five comparison companies, Ronbay Technology's core differentiation is its full technology route platform (ternary + LMFP + LFP + sodium-ion) and leadership in high-nickel/ultra-high-nickel. However, its 2025 cathode material gross margin was only 6.54%, lower than Easpring Technology and Changyuan Lico, higher than Zhenhua New Material (-14.29%), and its dependence on the largest customer (55.12%) is significantly elevated. Comparison sources: Zhiyan Consulting 2026-09-06, sgpjbg 2026-09-14, Forward 2026-03-24; gross margin comparison is 2025 data. Note that the statistical calibers and years of each company are not fully consistent; horizontal comparison is for reference only.

7. Risk Warnings

• High Customer Concentration Risk: In 2025, top five customer sales were RMB 9.532 billion, accounting for 77.7% of annual sales, with the largest customer accounting for 55.12% (media paraphrase of annual report data; needs verification against the original annual report). The company's dependence on a single customer is significantly higher than peers such as Easpring Technology (2019 largest customer share only 12.4%). If the core customer's procurement strategy, share allocation, or settlement terms change, the company's revenue and profitability will come under direct pressure.
• Disclosure Violation and Regulatory Penalty Risk: Due to suspected misleading statements in the January 2026 LFP procurement cooperation agreement announcement with CATL, the company was warned and fined RMB 4.5 million by the Ningbo Securities Regulatory Bureau, Bai Houshan was fined RMB 3 million, and Yu Jiyun was fined RMB 2 million, totaling RMB 9.5 million, and was publicly censured by the SSE. Regulators identified four issues: the RMB 120 billion was a self-estimate, the procurement volume lower limit (no less than 70% of the 305 million ton forecast) was not disclosed, the validity period was incorrectly disclosed (actually through December 31, 2030), and performance preconditions were not disclosed. The company's governance and information disclosure internal controls have been substantively questioned.
• Inventory and Cash Flow Risk: In H1 2026, operating cash flow was -RMB 170 million, reversing from the full-year 2025 net operating cash inflow of RMB 1.135 billion. Q2-end inventory was RMB 4.36 billion, up significantly by 104.2% from the beginning of the year, indicating a notable increase in working capital occupation. If downstream demand or prices fluctuate, inventory impairment and cash flow pressure may further intensify.
• Weak Profitability and Gross Margin Downside Risk: In 2025, cathode material gross margin was only 6.54%, down 2.80 percentage points YoY. The company's overall gross margin fell from a 2021 peak of 15.34% to 7.40% in 2025. In 2025, net profit attributable to shareholders was -RMB 187 million, with a net margin of -1.31%. The company is in the midstream processing segment of the industry chain and is a price taker for upstream bulk raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, lithium, and phosphorus, lacking pricing power.
• Consolidation and Profit Attribution Change Risk from Korean Business Restructuring: In March 2026, the company initiated restructuring of its Korean business; after completion, it is expected to hold only 24.9% equity in the Korean business. The Chungju, South Korea base has completed 60,000 tons/year ternary cathode and 6,000 tons/year precursor. The reduction in shareholding ratio may change the consolidation scope and profit attribution of this business, affecting the comparability of subsequent financial statements.
• New Business and Project Investment Fulfillment Risk: The company announced investment in the Xiantao annual 300,000-ton sodium-ion cathode material integrated project, joint investment with a related party (Shanghai Dingna Xintu Enterprise Management Partnership) to establish Hubei Ronbay Sodium-Ion New Energy Technology (contributing RMB 49 million, 70% equity), and entry into LFP through acquisition of Guizhou Xinren New Energy Technology (93.2034% equity). Solid-state battery and sodium-ion businesses are mostly in testing feedback or production line construction stages. If downstream validation progress, customer certification pace, or capacity ramp-up fall short of expectations, early-stage investments may not convert into revenue on schedule.
• Stock Price at 52-Week Low and Capital Outflow Risk: The closing price on September 11, 2026 was RMB 22.91, down 4.50% on the day, with the intraday low of RMB 22.50 marking the 52-week range low. The stock fell 6.60% over the last 5 days, 15.55% over the last month, and 27.01% over the last 3 months. Main force funds had a total net outflow of RMB 65.407 million for the week. The average chip cost of RMB 28.98 is above the current price. The PE TTM is -1,696.59x and PB is 2.11x, limiting the reference value of valuation.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Regarding the growth logic, the company's core highlights lie in the structural upgrading of ternary materials and the pace of volume ramp-up in emerging businesses. In H1 2026, the 9-series high-nickel shipment proportion rose to 35%. Solid-state battery cathode materials received favorable customer testing feedback, with production lines compatible with existing equipment and expected to reach hundred-ton-level demand; a ten-ton-level solid-state electrolyte production line is planned to be completed within the year. In LFP, the company entered with a one-step process through the acquisition of Guizhou Xinren New Energy Technology (ultimately holding 93.2034%). In sodium-ion, the company states it has reached cooperation with CATL on sodium-ion cathodes and become its first supplier of sodium-ion cathode powder materials, and announced investment in the Xiantao annual 300,000-ton sodium-ion cathode material integrated project and joint investment with a related party to establish Hubei Ronbay Sodium-Ion New Energy Technology (company holds 70%). Regarding overseas capacity, Chungju, South Korea has completed 60,000 tons/year ternary cathode and 6,000 tons/year precursor; Poland's 25,000 tons/year ternary cathode is expected to commence production in 2026 (there is a caliber discrepancy between H1 commencement and H2 completion with customer certification). Institutional forecasts for 2026-2028 net profit attributable to shareholders are approximately RMB 410-470 million, RMB 780-890 million, and RMB 1.08-1.51 billion, respectively, corresponding to 2027 PE of approximately 22-25x, but the 2028 sample has only 1-4 institutions, with low consensus.

Regarding risks and constraints, the company faces three structural pressures. First, customer concentration is extremely high: in 2025, top five customer sales accounted for 77.7%, with the largest customer at 55.12% (this data comes from media paraphrase of the annual report and needs verification against the original annual report). The high concentration of downstream battery manufacturers makes the cathode material segment's bargaining power weak. The company is in a thin-margin segment squeezed from both the upstream resource end and downstream battery manufacturers. In 2025, cathode material gross margin was only 6.54%, down 2.80 percentage points YoY, lower than Easpring Technology and Changyuan Lico. Second, disclosure compliance issues: due to suspected misleading statements in the CATL LFP procurement cooperation agreement announcement, the company, Bai Houshan, and Yu Jiyun were fined a total of RMB 9.5 million and publicly censured by the SSE. Regulators identified four misleading statements (the RMB 120 billion was a self-estimate without fully disclosing the basis, the procurement volume lower limit was not disclosed, the validity period was incorrectly disclosed, and performance preconditions were not disclosed). In June 2026, the company also disclosed a reply to the regulatory inquiry letter regarding 2025 annual report information disclosure. Third, financial and governance uncertainties, including the reversal to negative cash flow and doubled inventory in H1 2026, changes in consolidation scope after the Korean business restructuring, no distribution or conversion for both 2025 annual and 2026 interim periods, and a change in board secretary.

Overall, Ronbay Technology currently presents a coexistence of quarterly improvement in fundamentals and continued weakness in the secondary market. Technically, it is at the 52-week low, with a bearish moving average alignment and main force funds showing a total net outflow of RMB 65.407 million in the recent week. Whether the fundamental earnings recovery can continue and translate into simultaneous cash flow improvement, as well as the degree of volume ramp-up fulfillment in new businesses such as LFP, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries, are key variables for subsequent observation. The above judgments are based solely on disclosed data and do not constitute any buy or sell recommendation.

Data Sources

• Ronbay Technology (sh688005)
• Ronbay Technology (688005)_Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-time Quotes_Charts_News_Commentary_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• Ronbay Technology 688005 Stock Code, Price, Quotes, Analysis, Charts
• Ronbay Technology (688005) Weekly Review: Down 6.60% This Week, Main Force Funds Total Net Outflow RMB 65.407 Million - Stockstar
• 688005 | SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE - Brief Introduction
• Ronbay Technology (688005) September 11 Main Force Funds Net Sell RMB 10.3447 Million - Stockstar
• Weekly Review (9.7-9.11): Ronbay Technology Down 6.60% for the Week, Main Force Funds Total Net Outflow RMB 65.407 Million - Stockstar
• <table><tr><td>Stock Code</td><td>Stock Abbreviation</td><td>Main Products and Business</td></tr><tr><td>688008.SH</td><td>Montage Technology</td><td>The company is a leading IC design company, one of only 3 memory interface chip...
• Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.
• Ronbay Technology: 22.91 -4.50% -1.08 688005 Sohu Securities
• Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report Summary
• Ronbay Technology: 2025 Annual Report Summary - Stockstar - Ronbay Technology: 2025 Annual Report Summary
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• SH.688005 Ronbay Technology RONBAY TECH - Company Information - Background - A-Shares - etnet Mobile|Hong Kong News Financial Information and Lifestyle Platform
• Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. - Top
• One Chart to Understand | Ronbay Technology's STAR Market Attributes and Investment Logic - Stockstar - One Chart to Understand | Ronbay Technology's STAR Market Attributes and Investment Logic
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• Ronbay Technology: 2025 Annual Report Summary - Stockstar - Meanwhile, the company was the first to initiate overseas market development, relying on its existing layout in Poland for production line construction, for European automakers and electric
• Ronbay Technology Financial Report Summary
• Chiyu Banking Corporation
• Chiyu Banking Corporation
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
• Ronbay Technology (688005) Financial Reports_Financial Overview_Stock Financial Indicator Analysis_Investing.com - Ronbay Technology (688005)
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
• SH.688005 Ronbay Technology RONBAY TECH - A-Share Real-Time Quote RT Quote - Company Information Company Information
• Ronbay Technology (688005) F10 - China Finance Online - | China Finance Online | Market | ▼ | Ranking | ▼ | Watchlist
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• Ronbay Falls into Revenue Growth Without Profit Growth, Drawbacks of Deep Binding with "King Ning" Begin to Appear
• Ronbay Technology Disclosure Violation and Executives Heavily Fined RMB 9.5 Million, First Loss Since Listing RMB 187 Million, Largest Customer Sales Account for Over 55% - Ronbay Technology Disclosure Violation and Executives Heavily Fined RMB 9.5 Million, First Loss Since Listing RMB 187 Million, Largest Customer Sales Account for Over 55% Negative
• Ronbay Technology Disclosure Violation and Executives Heavily Fined RMB 9.5 Million, First Loss Since Listing RMB 187 Million, Largest Customer Sales Account for Over 55% - Ronbay Technology Disclosure Violation and Executives Heavily Fined RMB 9.5 Million, First Loss Since Listing RMB 187 Million, Largest Customer Sales Account for Over 55%
• Cai Shuo | Stock Price Halved One Year After Listing, Ronbay Technology's "Big Test" Arrives - Cai Shuo | Stock Price Halved One Year After Listing, Ronbay Technology's "Big Test" Arrives
• Ronbay Technology 2019 High-Nickel Cathode Material Revenue RMB 3.355 Billion, Up 95% YoY
• Behind Ronbay Technology's Stock Price Doubling: Performance May Depend on CATL, CATL May Become a Competitor in the Future - Behind Ronbay Technology's Stock Price Doubling: Performance May Depend on CATL, CATL May Become a Competitor in the Future
• Ronbay Technology Board Secretary Reply: The Company Has a Long-Term Cooperative Relationship with CATL, Orders Grow Steadily Based on Customer Capacity Expansion Plans. Other Stable Cooperating Domestic and International Mainstream Lithium Battery Manufacturers Include Farasis Energy, SK, EVE Energy, SVOLT, ATL, etc. (In No Particular Order). According to the Company's 2020 Annual Report, Top Five Customer Sales RMB 322,405.
• Behind Ronbay Technology's Stock Price Doubling: Performance May Depend on CATL, CATL May Become a Competitor in the Future
• Ronbay Technology's Reply to Inquiry "Stuck," Questions Abound Behind CATL's RMB 120 Billion Mega Order - Currently Reading:
• Up 90% in 7 Days, Ronbay Technology: Uncertainty Over Whether It Will Enter Tesla Supply Chain - - +1
• Global Polycrystalline Ternary Material Industry 2026 Annual Report: Market Size Calculation, Company Rankings, and Domestic and International Market Share Analysis - Global Polycrystalline Ternary Material Industry 2026 Annual Report: Market Size Calculation, Company Rankings, and Domestic and International Market Share Analysis
• [2026 Comparative Analysis of Key Listed Companies in China's Cathode Material Industry: Huayou Cobalt's Cathode Segment Leads in Revenue, Building Competitive Advantages Through Resource Integration [Chart]](https://m.chyxx.com/industry/1279259.html)
• Industry Deep Dive | Insights 2026: China Lithium Battery Cathode Material Industry Competitive Landscape and Market Share (with Market Concentration, Competitive Tiers, etc.) - Stockstar
• Foresee 2026: "2026 China Lithium Battery Cathode Material Industry Panorama" (with Market Status, Competitive Landscape, and Development Trends, etc.) - Market
• 9-Series Ternary Cathode Material Market Share Ranking Report 2026 - 9-Series Ternary Cathode Material Market Share Ranking Report 2026
• Foresee 2026: "2026 China Lithium Battery Cathode Material Industry Panorama" (with Market Status, Competitive Landscape, and Development Trends, etc.) - Stockstar - Foresee 2026: "2026 China Lithium Battery Cathode Material Industry Panorama" (with Market Status, Competitive Landscape, and Development Trends, etc.)
• What Are Cathode Materials? What Are the Core Classifications? Lithium Battery Cathode Material Technology Routes and Market Landscape
• Global and China High-Nickel 8-Series Ternary Material Industry Panorama Report: In-Depth Research and Full Analysis of the 15th Five-Year Plan - Global and China High-Nickel 8-Series Ternary Material Industry Panorama Report: In-Depth Research and Full Analysis of the 15th Five-Year Plan
• Most Comprehensive 2026 Lithium Battery Cathode Material Industry Listed Company Comprehensive Comparison (with Business Layout Summary, Performance Comparison, Business Planning, etc.) - Stockstar
• Changyuan Lico Industry Position: Domestic Ternary Cathode Market Share 9%, Ranked Fourth, Integrated Layout Cost Advantages Prominent