Suzhou Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd. (688017)

Equity Research Report | Industry: Precision Transmission and Robot Core Components | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the close on September 11, 2026; shareholder structure data as of June 30, 2026; MACD and certain RSI reference data as of September 4, 2026

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

I. Core Summary

Leader Harmonious Drive Systems achieved operating revenue of RMB 349 million in the first half of 2026, up 38.64% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 70.1092 million, up 31.25% year-on-year; for the full year 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were RMB 571 million and RMB 124 million, respectively, with growth rates of 47.31% and 121.42%, continuing relatively rapid growth. Growth was mainly driven by increased share in the industrial robot business, growth in the embodied intelligence robot business, increased product shipments, and capacity expansion. However, the gross margin declined to 32.26% in the first half of 2026, down approximately 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, and net cash flow from operating activities was -RMB 17.4157 million, indicating that profit growth has not yet fully translated into operating cash flow.

The company's main business is harmonic reducers and precision components, with related revenue of approximately RMB 477 million in 2025, still occupying the primary business position; electromechanical integrated products generated revenue of approximately RMB 74.30 million in 2025, with a gross margin of 41.14% in 2024, helping to enhance product added value. The company is positioned upstream in robot core components, with advantages in independent processing, large-scale production, and localized services. However, in 2025, harmonic reducer capacity was approximately 640,000 units, output was approximately 430,000 units, and capacity utilization was approximately 68%. Industry price competition, customer cost reduction, and depreciation of new production lines continue to constrain profitability.

Market expectations remain relatively positive, with institutional consensus forecasting net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 193 million, RMB 283 million, and RMB 393 million for 2026–2028. However, these forecasts are highly dependent on the pace of volume ramp-up from industrial robot, embodied intelligence, and humanoid robot customers. Meanwhile, as of September 10, 2026, the company's TTM P/E ratio was approximately 370x, and based on institutional average EPS forecasts, the dynamic P/E for 2026–2028 was approximately 271.5x, 185.1x, and 133.2x, respectively, indicating that the valuation has already priced in future high-growth expectations to a significant extent.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's stock price closed at RMB 280.66, down approximately 43.4% from its 52-week high. The closing price was below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and net outflow of main funds over the past 5 trading days totaled approximately RMB 199 million, placing the stock in a phase of high-volatility retracement and weak consolidation in the short term. The company is also planning to issue H-shares and list in Hong Kong, but the matter is still at the stage of shareholder meeting review and pre-regulatory filing, with the issuance size, price, timing, and use of proceeds not yet determined.

II. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Portfolio

• Harmonic reducers and precision components: Including harmonic reducers, metal components, and related core components, this is the main source of the company's revenue and profit, primarily applied in industrial robots, collaborative robots and service robots, embodied intelligence robots, CNC machine tools, medical devices, semiconductor production equipment, new energy equipment, and other high-end manufacturing equipment.
• Electromechanical integrated products: Including rotary actuators, joint modules, and CNC rotary tables, integrating harmonic reducers with motors, encoders, control systems, etc. In 2024, operating revenue was approximately RMB 52.59 million, up 56.74% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.14%; 2025 revenue was approximately RMB 74.30 million.
• Intelligent automation equipment and other products: Including automation equipment, electro-hydraulic servos, planetary roller screws, and other new transmission products, currently relatively small in scale and in the cultivation and expansion stage.
• 2024 business composition: Revenue from harmonic reducers and metal components was approximately RMB 325.4 million, accounting for approximately 84% of operating revenue; revenue from electromechanical integrated products was approximately RMB 52.59 million, accounting for approximately 14%; revenue from intelligent automation equipment was approximately RMB 4.63 million, accounting for approximately 1%.
• 2025 annual report data shows: Revenue from harmonic reducers and metal components was approximately RMB 476.5 million, revenue from electromechanical integrated products was approximately RMB 74.30 million, revenue from intelligent automation equipment was approximately RMB 14.89 million, and revenue related to industrial and embodied intelligence robot components was approximately RMB 422.5 million.

2.3 Industry Chain Upstream/Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

Leader Harmonious Drive Systems is positioned in the upstream core components segment of the robot and high-end equipment industry chain, primarily supplying precision reducers, actuators, and related transmission components to robot OEMs, automation equipment manufacturers, and high-end equipment manufacturers. Reducers have a significant impact on robot precision, rigidity, load capacity, lifespan, and stability. Customer certification cycles are relatively long, and process stability, batch delivery capability, and collaborative development capability are key competitive factors.

• Main input materials include special steel and other metal materials, materials required for core metal structural components such as flex splines and circular splines, bearings and related standard parts, lubricating materials, and precision machining, heat treatment, inspection, and assembly equipment. The company also uses outsourced processing services.
• The company possesses relatively complete manufacturing capabilities from basic material research, component rough machining, precision machining to complete machine assembly and inspection, and has disclosed the ability to independently process core components of harmonic reducers.
• In 2023, the cost of harmonic reducers and metal components comprised approximately 38.76% direct materials, approximately 26.07% direct labor, approximately 28.65% manufacturing overhead, and approximately 6.52% outsourced processing fees; in 2024, direct materials accounted for approximately 37.97%, still the largest single cost item.
• As of December 31, 2024, purchases from the top five suppliers totaled approximately RMB 21.04 million, accounting for approximately 20.03% of total annual procurement, with no related-party purchases among the top five suppliers. This data indicates that supplier concentration is not high, but the company has not fully disclosed the specific procurement price sensitivity of various key raw materials.
• The profit elasticity of the company with respect to the prices of individual materials such as special steel and bearings cannot be determined solely from the meeting minutes; costs are also affected by capacity utilization, depreciation of new production lines, product price competition, product mix, outsourcing ratio, processing yield, and production efficiency.
• Downstream customers mainly include industrial robot OEMs, collaborative robot and service robot enterprises, automation equipment manufacturers, CNC machine tool enterprises, medical device enterprises, semiconductor and new energy equipment enterprises, and embodied intelligence robot enterprises.
• As of December 31, 2024, sales to the top five customers totaled approximately RMB 133.9 million, accounting for 34.71% of total annual sales; the largest customer accounted for approximately 9.06% of sales, with no single customer exceeding 50% of sales. The meeting minutes did not disclose specific customer names, and the 2025 top five customer structure and business proportion of each customer should be based on the latest annual report and regulatory inquiry responses.
• The company discloses that it does not have significant dependence on any single customer. However, revenue grew rapidly in 2025, and if leading customers in the embodied intelligence robot sector enter the batch procurement stage, customer concentration may increase periodically.
• Downstream customers typically require suppliers to continuously reduce costs, improve consistency, and shorten delivery cycles. Price competition in the industrial robot industry may be transmitted upstream; after batch supply, the company may face annual customer price reductions and centralized procurement pressure.
• The company has certain bargaining power in high-precision, high-reliability products, as customer switching requires re-technical verification; however, standardized and mid-to-low-end product areas may face stronger price competition. Embodied intelligence customers are still in the early industrialization stage, and order scale and mass production pace are uncertain.
• As of December 31, 2024, the company's top five customers accounted for 34.71% of sales, higher than the top five suppliers' 20.03% of procurement, indicating that the company's concentration dependence on major downstream customers is higher than its dependence on upstream suppliers. Public information within the scope of this search could not fully cross-verify the 2025 accounts receivable turnover days, accounts receivable as a proportion of operating revenue, and customer-specific collection status. Therefore, a definitive judgment on the specific level of working capital occupation cannot be made, and relevant data should be based on the 2025 annual report balance sheet, accounts receivable notes, and regulatory inquiry responses.
• Customer concentration data is as of December 31, 2024: top five customers accounted for 34.71% of total sales, with the largest customer accounting for approximately 9.06%; supplier concentration data is as of December 31, 2024: top five suppliers accounted for approximately 20.03% of total procurement. The above data comes from the 2024 annual report-related disclosures listed in the research minutes; customer and supplier names are partially disclosed anonymously, and the 2025 customer structure is yet to be confirmed by the latest annual report and inquiry responses, so the final application fields and bargaining power cannot be fully judged based on this.

The company is positioned in the upper-middle value-added, technology-intensive precision core components segment of the smile curve, but not in the high-margin position of the resource end or terminal brand end. Current profit margins are affected by downstream customer bargaining power, industry price competition, depreciation of new production lines, and capacity utilization. Further improvement mainly depends on increasing capacity utilization, increasing the proportion of high value-added products such as electromechanical integrated products and joint modules, expanding high-end customers, enhancing product pricing power, and achieving batch supply to embodied intelligence robot customers. In 2025, the gross margin of harmonic reducers and metal components recovered to approximately 36.77%, but has not yet returned to the overall profitability level of 2021–2022.

III. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The 2026 semi-annual report was disclosed on August 27, 2026, and is the latest official financial report described in the minutes. Q2 2026 data is calculated by reverse calculation from the semi-annual report and Q1 report, and is not a quarterly report separately disclosed by the company. H1 2026 non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 58.1663 million, up 36.92% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was RMB 0.3824. FY2025 non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 99.4285 million, up 115.19% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was approximately RMB 0.6924.

Revenue and profit maintained rapid growth in H1 2026, mainly driven by increased share in the industrial robot industry, growth in the embodied intelligence robot business, increased product shipments, and capacity expansion. The gross margin for the same period was 32.26%, down approximately 2.51 percentage points from the same period last year; R&D expenses were approximately RMB 34.61 million, up 50.26% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 9.93%. Net cash flow from operating activities was -RMB 17.4157 million, compared with RMB 46.7961 million in the same period last year. Profit growth has not yet fully translated into operating cash flow, and attention should be paid to accounts receivable, inventory, and customer collection. The comprehensive gross margin for 2025 was 36.91%, with a period expense ratio of approximately 16.70%.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

Institutional consensus forecasts are as of September 8, 2026, with 16 institutions participating in forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and approximately 15 institutions participating in forecasts for 2028. For revenue forecasts, the 2026 average is from the Tonghuashun page; 2027–2028 figures are cross-compared using multiple brokerage public research reports. Forecast data belongs to brokerage research reports or third-party platform compilations, not official company performance guidance. Different institutions have differences in revenue, profit, and EPS forecasts, with main disagreements concentrated in the pace of humanoid robot customer volume ramp-up, progress in screw and actuator businesses, gross margin changes, and industry valuation levels.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of the close on September 10, 2026, the stock price was RMB 285.08, total market capitalization was approximately RMB 52.264 billion, the TTM P/E ratio was approximately 370x, and the P/B ratio was approximately 14.5x. Based on this closing price, according to institutional average EPS forecasts, the dynamic P/E for 2026–2028 is approximately 271.5x, 185.1x, and 133.2x, respectively; according to Guoyuan Securities' EPS forecasts, approximately 266.4x, 203.6x, and 155.8x, respectively. As of intraday trading on September 11, 2026, the stock price was once approximately RMB 274.22, with total market capitalization of approximately RMB 50.220 billion, and the page showed a dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 358.55x, which should not be directly mixed with the September 10 closing valuation. The rolling P/E ratio disclosed by the company as of June 30, 2026, was 484.79x, while the average rolling P/E ratio of the general equipment manufacturing industry over the most recent month was approximately 41.85x, indicating that the company's valuation is significantly higher than the industry average. The institutional target price range is approximately RMB 242.95–427, with an average target price of approximately RMB 344.89, but target prices come from different dates, stock price benchmarks, and earnings forecast assumptions, and cannot be simply regarded as a unified market consensus. Overall, the company's current valuation has already priced in sustained high growth expectations for embodied intelligence, humanoid robots, and industrial robot demand to a significant extent. Whether the valuation can be digested depends on the pace of volume ramp-up in related businesses and profit realization. If future profit realization falls short of market expectations, there is a relatively obvious risk of valuation retracement.

IV. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Planning to Issue H-Shares and List in Hong Kong

On August 26, 2026, the company held the 15th meeting of the third board of directors, deliberating and approving proposals related to the proposed initial public offering of overseas listed shares (H-shares) and listing on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, and disclosed a cautionary announcement on August 27, 2026. The company stated that the related plan aims to deepen its global strategic layout, enhance its international brand image, broaden financing channels, and enhance core competitiveness. As of September 11, 2026, the matter is still at the planning stage, and the final issuance size, issuance price, issuance timing, and use of proceeds have not been determined. It still needs to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for deliberation and obtain filing, approval, or authorization from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and other relevant regulatory authorities. Whether it can ultimately be implemented is subject to significant uncertainty.

4.2 The Second Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting of 2026 Will Deliberate H-Share Listing-Related Proposals

The company plans to hold the second extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 on September 14, 2026, to deliberate proposals including the issuance of H-shares and listing on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, the H-share issuance and listing plan, authorization for the board of directors and its authorized persons to handle matters related to the overseas issuance of shares and listing, the pre-issuance accumulated profit distribution plan for H-shares, appointment of the H-share issuance and listing audit institution, amendment of the articles of association and related governance systems, election of additional independent non-executive directors, and confirmation of director types. As of September 11, 2026, the shareholders' meeting has not yet been held, and no voting results are available.

4.3 H1 2026 Performance Grew Year-on-Year, Company Did Not Conduct Interim Dividend

The company disclosed its "2026 Semi-Annual Report" on August 27, 2026. In H1 2026, operating revenue was approximately RMB 349 million, up 38.64% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately RMB 70.1092 million, up 31.25% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was RMB 0.3824. The semi-annual report is unaudited. The company also disclosed that it would not distribute profits or convert capital reserve into share capital in H1 2026. During the reporting period, the company did not disclose any major asset acquisitions, major litigation, major guarantees, bankruptcy reorganization, or other matters with a significant adverse impact on operations.

4.4 Shareholders' Meeting Notice Correction and Supplement, and Meeting Materials Disclosure

On August 27, 2026, the company disclosed the "Notice on Convening the Second Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting of 2026," originally scheduled for September 14, 2026, with a record date of September 7, 2026. On September 5, 2026, the company disclosed a correction and supplement announcement for the shareholders' meeting; on September 10, 2026, it further disclosed the shareholders' meeting materials. The related matters still mainly revolve around the H-share issuance and listing, post-listing governance system adjustments, election of additional independent non-executive directors, accumulated profit arrangements, and appointment of audit institutions. As of September 11, 2026, the shareholders' meeting has not yet been held, and no voting results are available.

4.5 Board of Directors and Corporate Governance Structure Supporting Adjustments

On August 27, 2026, the company disclosed the "Announcement on Electing Additional Directors and Adjusting Members of Board Committees," with related adjustments supporting the proposed H-share issuance and Hong Kong listing. On the same day, the company centrally disclosed draft systems to be applied after the H-share issuance and listing, including the rules of procedure for shareholders' meetings, rules of procedure for board meetings, working system for independent directors, related-party transaction decision-making system, external investment management system, external guarantee decision-making system, information disclosure management system, investor relations management system, insider information registration management system, and rules of procedure for various board committees. The above announcements do not mean that the H-share listing has been approved.

4.6 Fundraising Investment Project Extension and Annual Report Inquiry Response

On July 10, 2026, the company disclosed the "Announcement on Extension of Fundraising Investment Projects," involving the "New Generation Precision Transmission Device Intelligent Manufacturing Project." The project's funds come from the company's targeted issuance of shares to specific parties, with total raised funds of approximately RMB 1.413 billion and net raised funds after deducting issuance expenses of approximately RMB 1.402 billion. As of May 31, 2026, the project's investment progress was relatively low, and the company decided to adjust the time for the project to reach its intended usable state. The company stated that this extension does not change the investment direction of the raised funds and will not have a significant adverse impact on normal operations. The sponsor institution, CITIC Securities, has no objection to this. On the same day, the company disclosed its response to the regulatory inquiry letter regarding the 2025 annual report information disclosure and the corrected version of the 2025 annual report. The project extension may delay the timing of new capacity and the conversion of raised funds into revenue and profit.

4.7 FY2025 Performance Information and Q3 Performance Disclosure

The company disclosed its FY2025 performance forecast on January 30, 2026, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for FY2025 of approximately RMB 115 million to RMB 130 million, up approximately 104.74% to 131.45% year-on-year. On February 27, 2026, the company disclosed its FY2025 performance express report, with total operating revenue of approximately RMB 569 million, net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of approximately RMB 124.9 million, and basic earnings per share of RMB 0.6954. As of September 11, 2026, the company has not yet disclosed its Q3 2026 performance forecast or Q3 performance express report, and current performance information is mainly based on the 2026 semi-annual report.

4.8 Buybacks, Increases, Decreases, and Shareholder Developments

As of September 11, 2026, no new share buyback plans, buyback implementation progress, controlling shareholder increase plans, or new controlling shareholder decrease plans disclosed by the company during August–September 2026 were found. The previous decreases by actual controllers Zuo Yuyu and Zuo Jing in 2025 are historical matters. The 2026 semi-annual report shows that as of June 30, 2026, the number of shareholders was approximately 70,600, a significant increase from the end of March 2026, but changes in the number of shareholders do not equate to decreases by the controlling shareholder or major shareholders.

4.9 No New Major M&A or Major Cooperation Announcements Found

As of September 11, 2026, no major asset M&A, major equity acquisitions, asset sales, major external investments, or major business cooperation announcements disclosed by the company during August–September 2026 were found. The most substantively impactful recent capital operation matter is the H-share listing plan. The company previously disclosed a stock trading risk warning announcement during the abnormal stock price fluctuation in June 2026, stating that as of the announcement disclosure date, there were no major matters under planning such as M&A restructuring, share issuance, major transactions, business restructuring, share buybacks, equity incentives, bankruptcy reorganization, major business cooperation, or introduction of strategic investors; that risk warning is an announcement under the historical stock price abnormality background and cannot replace the understanding of subsequent H-share listing planning matters.

4.10 Recent Focus Points and Uncertainties

As of September 11, 2026, the company's recent announcement main lines include: H-share listing planning, H1 2026 performance growth without interim dividend, the second extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 deliberation, fundraising project extension, and annual report inquiry response. Going forward, key focus should be on the Q3 performance forecast, H-share shareholders' meeting voting results, regulatory filing progress, and construction progress after the fundraising project extension. The H-share listing is still at the planning and shareholders' meeting deliberation stage, has not yet obtained final regulatory approval, and the issuance size, price, timing, and use of proceeds are all uncertain. The conclusion that no new buyback, increase, decrease, or M&A announcements were found is based on cross-searching of public information as of September 11, 2026, and does not mean the company will not disclose related matters in the future. Formal judgments should be based on subsequent company and exchange announcements.

V. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Leader Harmonious Drive Systems closed at RMB 280.66, down approximately 43.4% from its 52-week high, in the middle-lower part of the 52-week range. After surging on August 18, the stock price fell rapidly; after rebounding to RMB 294.96 on September 7, it weakened continuously, placing it in a phase of high-volatility retracement and weak consolidation in the short term. The closing price is below MA5, MA10, and MA20, with a weak moving average structure; the simplified RSI recalculation is approximately 43, reflecting weak recovery but insufficient to confirm a trend reversal. The stock price is below the estimated Bollinger middle band and above the lower band, with the area around RMB 280 and the intraday low of RMB 271.69 forming the current support observation zone. In terms of capital, main funds had a total net outflow of approximately RMB 199 million over the most recent 5 trading days; although there was net inflow of hot money on September 11, no upward confirmation of price-volume resonance has yet formed.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is solely a subjective scenario analysis based on September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute a deterministic prediction of future stock prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 60%; subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and capital structure, not statistical probability): Price range approximately RMB 272–300. Trigger conditions are holding the RMB 272–280 support area, main fund net outflow no longer continuously expanding, turnover maintaining the recent normal range of approximately RMB 1.0–1.8 billion, and inability to effectively break above RMB 300.
• Weaker downward (medium weight; subjective heuristic judgment, not statistical probability): Price range approximately RMB 252–272. Trigger conditions are closing price effectively breaking below RMB 271–272, while single-day turnover re-expands to above RMB 1.8–2.0 billion, and main funds continue significant net outflow; focus on the combination of "closing confirmation + turnover expansion," rather than intraday breach alone.
• Rebound strengthening (lower weight; subjective heuristic judgment, not statistical probability): Price range approximately RMB 300–315. Trigger conditions are regaining RMB 300 and continuously closing above it, while turnover expands to above RMB 2.0 billion, and super-large order and large order funds shift from net outflow to continuous net inflow; if conditions are met, observe the previous rebound platform near RMB 314–315, but a single-day rise cannot alone confirm a reversal.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, single-day turnover was RMB 1.486 billion, with a turnover rate of 2.92%; over the most recent 5 trading days, turnover ranged from approximately RMB 823 million to RMB 2.775 billion, and the turnover rate ranged from approximately 1.57% to 5.17%. As of June 30, 2026, the total number of shareholders was 70,639, the top ten shareholders held 46.88%, and the top two actual controllers held a combined 34.60%; among the top ten shareholders were also institutional or channel funds such as Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited, China AMC CSI Robot ETF, E Fund Guozheng Robot Industry ETF, Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Selected Mixed Initiation A, and Industrial Mother Machine Industry Investment Fund. Explicitly identifiable fund and private equity holdings total approximately 3.76%; if Hong Kong Securities Clearing is also included as institutional funds for observation, the influence of institutional and channel funds is higher. The above shareholder data lags the September 11 market by approximately two months, and the holding structure may have changed; the top ten shareholders' holding proportion has decreased from approximately 50.33% as of March 31, 2026, to 46.88% as of June 30. At the actual trading level, the single-day turnover rate of 2.92% is not low, but lower than the severe turnover levels of 8.29% and 8.49% on August 18 and August 19. For the short term, the relatively high concentration of the top ten shareholders means some shares are relatively stable, but tradable chips may still be affected by controlling shareholders, Hong Kong Securities Clearing, and ETF rebalancing, and it cannot be inferred that the stock price will necessarily be stable.

Checkable price-volume signals: If the stock price regains RMB 300, and single-day turnover continuously expands to above RMB 2.0 billion, while main funds shift from net outflow to net inflow, this can be regarded as an observation signal of improved short-term capital support; if the price breaks below RMB 272 while turnover simultaneously exceeds RMB 2.0 billion, this is an observation signal of increased downward pressure.

④ Focus Points (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 272–280 support area can be held, focusing on closing prices rather than intraday dips alone; the above are observation ideas, not operational instructions.
• Observe whether the resistance near RMB 300 can be effectively broken, and whether turnover and main funds improve simultaneously upon a breakout; the above are observation ideas, not operational instructions.
• Observe whether turnover can steadily recover to above RMB 2.0 billion, and whether super-large order and large order funds stop continuous net outflow; the above are observation ideas, not operational instructions.
• Observe whether the MACD weak or negative state shows an inflection point, and whether RSI can continue to recover from the weak range; the above are observation ideas, not operational instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical price and technical indicator calculations. Short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors such as news, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of future actual trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourselves.

VI. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The industry to which Leader Harmonious Drive Systems belongs can be classified into precision transmission, industrial robot core components, robot reducers, high-end equipment manufacturing, and embodied intelligence robot components. Precision reducers mainly include harmonic reducers and RV reducers; harmonic reducers have characteristics such as small size, light weight, compact structure, and relatively high transmission precision, suitable for collaborative robots, light industrial robots, service robots, semiconductor equipment, medical equipment, and embodied intelligence robot joints.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The global harmonic reducer market has long been dominated by Japan's Harmonic Drive Systems, whose advantages include technology accumulation, high-end customer certification experience, global service network, brand and reliability, and high-end industrial robot customer stickiness.
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems is one of the few Chinese harmonic reducer enterprises with large-scale production and international competitiveness, mainly reducing procurement costs through localization, shortening delivery cycles, providing localized services, and relying on independent processing and batch production to improve cost-effectiveness.
• The domestic industry has gradually shifted from early competition among a few enterprises to a coexistence of capacity expansion and price competition among multiple enterprises; Leader Harmonious Drive Systems still has scale, technology, and customer foundation, but competition in mid-to-low-end and standardized product areas may intensify.
• The company cited GGII statistics in its regulatory inquiry response, disclosing that from 2021–2023, Leader Harmonious Drive Systems' share in China's robot harmonic reducer market was approximately 24.52%, 25.63%, and 20.27%, respectively. This data belongs to third-party statistical calibers, and different brokerages and industry research institutions may use sales volume, sales revenue, or global market calibers, and should not be directly cross-spliced.
• Industry downstream covers industrial robots, collaborative robots, service robots, embodied intelligence robots, CNC machine tools, medical equipment, semiconductor equipment, and new energy equipment, with demand affected by manufacturing capital expenditure, macroeconomic conditions, and customer mass production pace.

6.3 Main Competitors

Leader Harmonious Drive Systems' direct competition focus is in the harmonic reducer field, with competitive advantages in specialized product capabilities, independent processing and complete manufacturing chain, technology and process accumulation, large-scale production, and localized services. Overseas manufacturers such as Harmonic Drive Systems have more advantages in high-end customer certification, brand, and global services; domestic enterprises such as Zhongda Leader and Fengli Intelligent have characteristics in comprehensive transmission product lines or precision gears and multi-scenario layouts, respectively. When comparing within the industry, a distinction should be made between direct harmonic reducer competitors and broadly defined precision transmission comparable companies; RV reducer, gear reducer, and harmonic reducer enterprises cannot be simply regarded as completely homogeneous competitors.

VII. Risk Warnings

• The embodied intelligence and humanoid robot businesses are still in the early industrialization stage, and order scale, customer mass production pace, and batch supply progress are uncertain; if related customers ramp up slower than expected, institutional forecasts for 2026–2028 performance may be difficult to realize.
• The company's revenue and profit still mainly depend on harmonic reducers and metal components, with revenue from this business of approximately RMB 477 million in 2025; the industry has already seen capacity expansion and price competition among multiple enterprises, and mid-to-low-end and standardized products may face annual customer price reductions, centralized procurement, and continued gross margin pressure.
• The comprehensive gross margin in H1 2026 was 32.26%, down approximately 2.51 percentage points year-on-year; the overall gross margin in 2025 was approximately 36.91%, significantly lower than the 2021–2022 level. Capacity ramp-up, depreciation of new production lines, R&D investment, product price competition, and insufficient capacity utilization may continue to compress profits.
• Net cash flow from operating activities in H1 2026 was -RMB 17.4157 million, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 70.1092 million; the company's 2025 working capital and certain customer structure data have not been fully cross-verified, and accounts receivable, inventory, and customer collection conditions may cause a mismatch between profit and cash flow performance.
• As of the end of 2024, the top five customers accounted for 34.71% of sales, with the largest customer accounting for approximately 9.06%; if leading customers in the embodied intelligence robot sector enter the batch procurement stage, customer concentration may increase periodically and enhance downstream customers' negotiating power over price, delivery, and service conditions.
• In 2025, harmonic reducer capacity was approximately 640,000 units, output was approximately 430,000 units, and capacity utilization was approximately 68%; if downstream demand release falls short of expectations, new equipment, plant, and related fixed costs may create depreciation pressure, affecting unit costs and profitability.
• The fundraising investment project "New Generation Precision Transmission Device Intelligent Manufacturing Project" has been extended, and as of May 31, 2026, the project investment progress was relatively low, which may delay the formation of new capacity and the conversion of raised funds into revenue and profit.
• The company's planning to issue H-shares and list in Hong Kong is still at the stage of shareholders' meeting deliberation and pre-regulatory filing, and the issuance size, issuance price, issuance timing, and use of proceeds have not been determined. If the proposal is not approved or relevant regulatory approvals are not obtained, the globalization layout and financing plans may change; if ultimately implemented, it may also bring effects such as equity dilution.
• As of September 10, 2026, the company's TTM P/E ratio was approximately 370x, and the 2026 dynamic P/E calculated based on institutional average forecasts was approximately 271.5x, significantly higher than the given average rolling P/E ratio of the general equipment manufacturing industry over the most recent month of approximately 41.85x; if profit growth or embodied intelligence business realization falls short of market expectations, there is a relatively obvious risk of valuation retracement.
• As of September 11, 2026, the stock price was down approximately 43.4% from its 52-week high, the closing price was below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and main funds had a total net outflow of approximately RMB 199 million over the most recent 5 trading days; technical weakness and capital outflow may amplify short-term price volatility, but the related technical indicators and capital flow calibers themselves have lag and limitations.

VIII. Conclusion and Outlook

The company's core growth logic lies in the recovery of industrial robot demand, the increase in domestic harmonic reducer share, and the potential volume ramp-up of embodied intelligence robot customers; electromechanical integrated products, joint modules, actuators, and other new transmission products provide room for product structure upgrading. Revenue and profit maintained growth in H1 2026, indicating that shipment volume and capacity expansion have had certain effects. If subsequent customer mass production pace is realized and capacity utilization is improved, economies of scale and an increased proportion of high value-added products may improve profitability.

Current performance improvement is still accompanied by declining gross margin, negative operating cash flow, and fundraising project extension. Earnings quality, capacity construction progress, and conversion efficiency of new capacity need continuous verification. The company's top five customers accounted for 34.71% of total sales in 2024, higher than the top five suppliers' 20.03% of procurement; if leading customers in the embodied intelligence sector enter the batch procurement stage, customer concentration and bargaining pressure may increase periodically.

Going forward, key observation points include Q3 2026 performance, order volume ramp-up from embodied intelligence and industrial robot customers, whether gross margin can stop falling and recover, operating cash flow and accounts receivable conditions, construction progress after the fundraising project extension, and the shareholders' meeting deliberation and regulatory filing results of the H-share listing proposal. The company's current valuation and stock price volatility are at relatively high levels, and the market already has high expectations for future profit realization. If actual performance falls short of expectations, the valuation digestion process may exacerbate stock price volatility.

Data Sources

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017)_Company Announcements_Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017)_Company Announcements_Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Summary Sina Finance_Sina
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: H1 2026 net profit RMB 70.1092 million, up 31.25% YoY _ East Money
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017)_Company Announcements_Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• 2025 Annual Report and 2026 Q1 Report Review: Strategic Positioning in Embodied Intelligence, Impressive Revenue and Profit Performance - Macro Research Report _ Data Center _ East Money
• 2026 Semi-Annual Report Review: Deep Cultivation in Embodied Intelligence, Double Growth in Revenue and Profit - Macro Research Report _ Data Center _ East Money
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) 2025 Annual Report Review: High Performance Growth, Solid Industry Position in Industrial Robots, Embodied Intelligence Opens New Growth Space__Sina Finance_Sina
• Guosen Securities-Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) 2026 Q1 Performance Rapid Growth, Humanoid Robot Advantages Continuously Consolidated-260526.pdf
• Institutional Ratings | CICC Gives Leader Harmonious Drive Systems "Outperform Industry" Rating
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) Stock Historical Data: Historical Quotes, Prices, Trend Charts_Investing.com
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems 274.22 -3.81%(-10.86) Stock Price-Quotes-Trend Chart-Quotes-JRJ
• Securities Code: 688017 Securities Abbreviation: Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Announcement No.: 2026-019
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017)_Company Announcements_Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Suzhou Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd.|Shanghai Securities News
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) Company Announcements_Sina Finance_Sina
• China Securities Journal - Suzhou Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd.<BR/>Announcement on Extension of Fundraising Investment Projects
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems _ Stock Calendar _ East Money _ Data Channel
• Securities Code: 688017
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017)_Company Announcements_Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Summary Sina Finance_Sina
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) - Historical Trading Data | Dabanke.com
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) Stock Latest Price Quotes, Real-Time Trend Charts, Stock Price Analysis and Forecast_Investing.com
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) Stock Quotes Trend Technical Analysis_Future Forecast_Buy and Sell Operation Suggestions_Investing.com
• Stock Market Quick Report: Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017) September 11 Main Funds Net Sell RMB 143 million_Main Funds Research_Stocks_Stockstar
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017)_Capital Flows_Stockstar

This report is automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information. Information is as of the close on September 11, 2026; shareholder structure data is as of June 30, 2026; MACD and certain RSI reference data are as of September 4, 2026. There may be timeliness differences, and specific data should be based on the company's official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is solely for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.