Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. (688223)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Solar Modules and Energy Storage　|　Report date: 2026-10-02　|　Market data as of the close on 2026-09-30

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on public information, is for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

Core conclusion: Low valuation has yet to bring an earnings inflection point; recovery expectations still require validation through module profitability

Market data as of the close on 2026-09-30

1. Key Investment Points

• Revenue continues to decline, and losses persist: Revenue in 1H 2026 was RMB 24.727 billion, down 22.32% year over year, and net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent was RMB 3.076 billion. Gross margin was 3.41%, while quarterly non-GAAP net profit fell 48.74% year over year.
• Earnings recovery depends on price stabilization: Modules remain the core revenue source, while oversupply and price competition weigh on profits. Scale, TOPCon products, and overseas channels have yet to translate into stable pricing power.
• Valuation is at a historical low, but PE is not meaningful: The closing price on September 30 was RMB 3.83; PE-TTM is not applicable because the company is loss-making. PB of 1.69x is at the 1st percentile of the past 4.5 years, while PS of 0.67x is at the 21st percentile.

Market Expectations and Evidence

• What the market is pricing in: Consensus expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent of RMB 1.347 billion in 2026, followed by a return to profitability at RMB 2.097 billion in 2027. The 2026 forecast range spans a loss of RMB 4.159 billion to a profit of RMB 600 million, indicating considerable divergence. The low valuation reflects caution, but earnings recovery still needs to be validated.
• What the evidence shows: The company remained loss-making in 1H, with a net loss of RMB 3.076 billion and revenue down 22.32% year over year, and has yet to demonstrate annual earnings improvement. A return to positive gross margin and operating cash flow are positive signs, but impairment charges and a quarterly decline in non-GAAP net profit indicate that the recovery remains on a weak footing.

Evidence tilt: Bearish; confidence: High (coverage by 13 institutions; market and financial-report figures cross-checked programmatically)

Losses, declining revenue, and divergence in earnings forecasts are clear. Valuation is low, but a sustained return to profitability has yet to be confirmed by operating data.

2. Business and Competitive Position

2.1 Business Mix

The company primarily sells solar products, mainly modules, to global power-plant investors, developers, and distributors, and competes through scale, integrated manufacturing, and product mix.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Competitive advantage strength: Weak

• Scale: Module sales volume was 86.81 GW in 2025, placing the company among the global leaders in module shipments.
• Technology: The company disclosed an N-type TOPCon cell efficiency of 27.79%, and cumulative shipments of the Tiger Neo series exceeded 250 GW.
• Channels and brand: The marketing network covers nearly 200 countries and regions, with 35 global service centers.

Key threats: Oversupply and module price competition weigh on profits, while raw-material costs and trade barriers may also erode the advantages of scale, technology, and channels.

2.3 Value-Chain Position and Profitability Trends

• Inputs include polysilicon, silicon wafers, materials related to cell production, and module encapsulation and structural materials. In 2025, raw materials accounted for 68.06% of operating costs across the solar industry.
• The top five suppliers accounted for 30.00% of procurement in 2025. Prices under long-term polysilicon contracts are negotiated monthly, leaving the company with limited overall pricing power over bulk raw materials; cost advantages rely mainly on scale, vertical integration, and reduced consumption.
• Customers include solar power-plant investors, developers, contractors, and distributed-system distributors. Module tenders and price competition are the primary sources of bargaining pressure, rather than annual price reductions of the kind seen in the automotive components industry.
• The 2025 annual report: Sales to the top five customers totaled RMB 8.211 billion, or 12.54% of total sales; customer names were disclosed anonymously. This is a single-year disclosure.
• At the end of June 2026, accounts receivable were RMB 12.007 billion, equivalent to approximately 48.6% of 1H revenue; prepayments were RMB 2.160 billion, accounts payable were RMB 21.940 billion, and notes payable were RMB 8.251 billion, indicating a buildup in receivables alongside a buffer from payables.

The company operates in the midstream of solar manufacturing, with modules as its main business. Scale, TOPCon upgrades, and overseas channels are relative advantages, but have yet to translate into stable pricing power. Profit recovery depends on supply-demand conditions and module prices stabilizing, product-mix upgrades, cost control for items such as silver paste, and the realization of capacity upgrades. The trend table uses consolidated figures as presented by a financial data platform; gross margin for the principal solar product business in 2025 was -0.82%.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

Solar manufacturing is in a phase of oversupply and price competition that is compressing margins. The key issue for Jinko is whether module prices can stabilize and cover costs.

Jinko has advantages in global module shipment scale, TOPCon products, and overseas channels, but the gross margin of its principal solar product business turned negative in 2025, and these advantages have yet to translate into stable profitability. Peers are also generally loss-making, and gross-margin calculation methodologies differ.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

As of the 1H 2026 report; period results follow the figures disclosed in financial reports.

Persistent losses were primarily affected by industry supply-demand imbalances and low product prices. Quarterly revenue in the interim report rose 1.90% sequentially, but non-GAAP net profit fell 48.74% year over year. Financial expenses rose sharply due to foreign-exchange losses, and the company also recognized RMB 708 million in inventory write-downs.

3.2 Financial Health Check

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation

Valuation multiples calculated programmatically using closing-price data as of 2026-09-30 (trailing twelve-month basis); peer multiples calculated on the same basis using closing-price data as of 2026-09-30.

PE-TTM is not applicable because the company is loss-making. PB of 1.69x is at the 1st percentile of the past 4.5 years, while PS of 0.67x is at the 21st percentile; both are below their respective historical medians. Valuation is already low, but consensus still requires the company to return to profitability in 2027, and the 2026 forecast range is wide. Whether the low valuation can translate into returns depends on earnings delivery.

4.2 Consensus Expectations

Consensus of 13 institutions over the past six months, as of 2026-10-02; the 2026 forecast range for net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent is a loss of RMB 4.159 billion to a profit of RMB 600 million (10 institutions).

4.3 Institutional Views

Three institutions; average target price RMB 7.44, with a range of RMB 7–7.71. The latest view was from CICC on 2026-08-27, with a target price of RMB 7.

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Upcoming Dates

5.2 Recent Important Events

• 2026-08-27 Large interim-report impairment charges; cash flow turns positive (Neutral): Net operating cash flow in 1H was RMB 682 million, turning positive from a net outflow in the same period last year. Impairment charges of RMB 1.074 billion reduced consolidated total profit; the earnings recovery still needs to be validated by subsequent reports.
• 2026-09-29 Restricted stock plan may dilute the share base (Negative): The draft proposes a private placement of 260 million shares, approximately 2.54% of total shares. It is still subject to shareholder approval; if approved and vesting conditions are met, the share count will increase.
• 2026-09-22 Share buyback cancellation completed (Positive): The company cancelled 29.7213 million repurchased shares, approximately 0.29% of total shares before cancellation. Total shares fell to approximately 10.240 billion, resulting in a modest reduction in the share count.
• 2026-09-05 Subsidiary guarantees are substantial (Negative): New subsidiary guarantees totaled RMB 3.3 billion. As of the announcement date, cumulative guarantees totaled RMB 41.850 billion, or 164.91% of the most recently audited net assets. Guarantee limits do not equate to actual drawdowns or losses.

6. Bull-Bear Debate and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

• Module sales volume was 86.81 GW in 2025, and the company disclosed TOPCon cell efficiency of 27.79%. Scale and product iteration provide a basis for gaining share when the industry recovers.
• Net operating cash flow in 1H 2026 was RMB 682 million, turning positive from a net outflow in the same period last year; cash flow improved ahead of profits.

6.2 Bear Case

• Gross margin for the principal solar product business was -0.82% in 2025. Module price competition continues to make it difficult for scale advantages to translate into stable profitability.
• In 1H, days sales outstanding and inventory turnover days were 92 days and 120.7 days, respectively, higher than the corresponding 73.6 days and 76.8 days at the end of 2025, indicating greater working capital tied up in operations.

6.3 Other Risks

• The company recognized RMB 708 million in inventory write-downs in 1H. Further inventory price declines or larger impairment charges would put additional pressure on profits.
• Foreign-exchange losses pushed up financial expenses; if exchange-rate volatility persists, it may offset gross-margin recovery at the operating level.
• As of the announcement date, cumulative guarantees totaled RMB 41.850 billion, or 164.91% of the most recently audited net assets. If subsidiary debt-service pressure results in actual guarantee payments, cash and net assets would be eroded.
• The proposed private placement of 260 million shares represents approximately 2.54% of total shares; if approved and vested, it will increase the share count and dilute EPS.

7. Monitoring Checklist

8. Share Price and Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ The following is a subjective scenario analysis for the next week. Weights are heuristic judgments, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute investment advice.

8.1 Technical Overview

The share price has rebounded from a low of RMB 3.64, and short-term momentum has improved, but it remains capped by the middle Bollinger band at RMB 3.89 and the MA60 at RMB 4.16. If support at RMB 3.64–3.65 fails, weakness may persist.

8.2 Key Price Levels

8.3 One-Week Range Based on Historical Volatility

Using the 2026-09-30 price of RMB 3.83 as the base, the closing-price range for the next five trading days is estimated from the return distribution over the past 300 trading days (scaled using the current index-weighted daily volatility of approximately 2.0%, while retaining the stock’s own frequency of large gains and losses):

This range reflects only the stock’s recent volatility and does not indicate a price direction. In the event of a major announcement or a sharp market decline, actual movements may exceed the range.

8.4 Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50%): RMB 3.64–3.89. Range-bound trading is more likely if the stock holds RMB 3.64–3.65 and does not break above RMB 3.89 on high volume. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price one week later falling within this range is approximately 50%.
• Moderately bearish decline (medium weight, approximately 30%): RMB 3.50–3.64. If the closing price falls below RMB 3.64 and the sector weakens, the stock may continue to test lower levels. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price one week later falling within this range is approximately 10%.
• Strong rebound (relatively low weight, approximately 20%): RMB 3.89–4.16. A high-volume recovery above RMB 3.89, supported by the sector, could take the stock toward MA60. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price one week later falling within this range is approximately 30%.

Figures in parentheses are subjective weights; the probabilities at the end of each sentence are inferred from the volatility ranges above and reflect volatility only, not direction.

8.5 Capital Flows and Liquidity

The turnover rate over the past 10 days was 0.47%–0.78%, and trading value on September 30 was RMB 299 million. The stated trading-value range of RMB 17.866 billion–29.789 billion over the past 10 days is clearly inconsistent with the single-day data, so it is not used for assessment. As of 2026-06-30, the top 10 tradable shareholders collectively held 67.62% of shares, with Jinko Energy Investment holding 54.16%; among them, ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF held 0.71%. Disclosures are subject to reporting lags, and the shareholder structure may have changed. Ownership is concentrated, and the depth of trading liquidity still warrants attention.

If trading value exceeds the September 30 level of RMB 299 million for two consecutive days and the closing price moves above RMB 3.89, this could be viewed as a signal of improving price-volume momentum.

The scenario analysis above is based on closing data as of 2026-09-30 and estimates using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices are also affected by multiple factors, including news, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations; this analysis does not guarantee future price movements and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Please make an independent judgment based on the latest market information and assume your own investment risks.

Sources

• static.cninfo.com.cn（公告PDF）
• 晶科能源股份有限公司2025年年度报告
• 公司公告_晶科能源：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 财报摘要
• static.cninfo.com.cn（公告PDF）
• Top ten solar manufacturers shipped over 500GW of modules in 2025 - PV Tech
• 东方财富 F10 财务分析
• 东方财富 F10 盈利预测
• 晶科能源:晶科能源2026年半年度报告
• 晶科能源(688223)_公司公告_晶科能源：2026年半年度报告摘要新浪财经_新浪网
• 晶科能源(688223)_公司公告_晶科能源：关于2026年半年度计提资产减值准备的公告新浪财经_新浪网
• 证券代码：688223  证券简称：晶科能源  公告编号：2026-048
• 晶科能源(688223)_公司公告_晶科能源：关于完成回购股份注销调整可转债转股价格暨转股停牌的公告新浪财经_新浪网
• 晶科能源(688223)_公司公告_晶科能源：第二届董事会第三十四次会议决议公告新浪财经_新浪网
• 晶科能源(688223)_公司公告_晶科能源：关于提供担保的进展公告新浪财经_新浪网
• 晶科能源(688223) 股本结构_F10_同花顺金融服务网
• 晶科能源(688223)_公司公告_晶科能源：2026年9月投资者关系活动记录表新浪财经_新浪网
• 东方财富 个股资金流向
• 东方财富 股东研究

This report was automatically researched, compiled, and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the close on 2026-09-30 and may be subject to timing differences; please refer to the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals for specific figures. This report is for informational and research reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and assume their own investment risks.