Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited (Cambricon) (688256)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Artificial Intelligence Chips and Foundation Software | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Data as of September 11, 2026 close; closing market data primarily uses Aigupiao data as of September 11, 2026 15:00:07, and certain technical indicators and shareholder data may have different calibers or lags.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Cambricon achieved operating revenue of RMB 5.996 billion in H1 2026, up 108.13% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.311 billion, up 122.61% year-over-year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.166 billion, up 137.30% year-over-year, with main business profitability clearly strengthening. However, net cash flow from operating activities during the same period was only RMB 311 million, down 65.83% year-over-year, and the conversion of rapid revenue and profit growth into cash collection still needs verification.

The company's growth is highly dependent on the cloud product line. In 2025, cloud product line revenue was RMB 6.477 billion, accounting for approximately 99.7% of main business revenue, with a gross margin of 55.22%; edge product line revenue was RMB 3.394 million, down 48.12% year-over-year; processor IP licensing and software revenue was approximately RMB 2.2887 million, and other business segments were also small in scale. The company turned from a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 452 million in 2024 to a profit of RMB 2.059 billion in 2025, with profitability further growing in H1 2026, demonstrating that cloud AI chip volume ramp-up, customer onboarding, and economies of scale are improving performance.

The company adopts a Fabless model, with technical value concentrated in intelligent processor architecture, chip design, foundation software, and toolchains, while wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, boards, and server supporting components rely on external suppliers. In 2025, the top five suppliers accounted for 75.23% of procurement, with the largest supplier accounting for 55.34%; the top five customers accounted for 88.66% of sales, with both customer and supplier concentration being high, making the business relatively sensitive to the procurement pace of a few large customers and the stability of supply chain delivery.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's stock price was RMB 1,040, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 654 billion, a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 150.94x, and a P/B ratio of approximately 48.20x, with market valuation already incorporating high growth expectations. Technically, the stock price is below the self-calculated MA5, MA10, MA20, and Bollinger middle band, MACD is negative, and it has recently been in weak consolidation after a pullback from highs, with RMB 1,000-1,015 and RMB 950-970 as major support references, and RMB 1,065-1,080 and RMB 1,090-1,120 as rebound resistance references.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Cloud product line: Targeting data centers, intelligent computing centers, internet, and large model training and inference scenarios, products include SiYuan 100, SiYuan 270, SiYuan 290, SiYuan 370 and other cloud intelligent chips and accelerator cards, extending to intelligent complete machines, servers, and intelligent computing cluster systems. 2025 revenue was RMB 6.477 billion, accounting for approximately 99.7% of main business revenue, with a gross margin of 55.22%.
• Edge product line: Targeting industrial, transportation, energy, video analytics, smart manufacturing, and edge server scenarios, representative products include the SiYuan 220-based edge intelligent accelerator card. 2025 revenue was RMB 3.394 million, down 48.12% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 44.52%.
• Processor IP licensing and software: Providing terminal intelligent processor IP licensing, as well as foundation system software, programming framework adaptation, compilers, math libraries, training and inference toolchains, etc. 2025 revenue was approximately RMB 2.2887 million, with a gross margin of 100%, but the revenue scale is small.
• Intelligent complete machines and intelligent computing cluster systems: Combining self-developed cloud chips and boards with servers, network equipment, storage devices, and cluster management software to provide data center customers with complete machine or cluster-level integrated hardware and software solutions. The 2025 annual report did not separately disclose the revenue scale of this business.
• Other businesses: 2025 revenue was RMB 14.6582 million, with a gross margin of 22.11%.

2.3 Industry Chain Position and Cost-Profit Structure

Cambricon is positioned in the chip design and foundation software segment of the AI computing power industry chain, in the mid-to-upstream. The company adopts a Fabless model, with core value derived from intelligent processor architecture, instruction sets, SoC design, foundation software, compilation toolchains, board system R&D, and customer adaptation capabilities; however, wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, and some server and board supporting segments rely on external suppliers.

• The upstream segments actually procured from and relied upon include wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, third-party IP licensing, as well as servers, boards, networking, storage devices, and other direct materials and supporting material suppliers.
• In the 2025 cost structure, direct material costs were RMB 1.469 billion, accounting for 50.40% of total costs; packaging and testing costs were RMB 344 million, accounting for 11.80%; manufacturing expenses were RMB 113 million, accounting for 3.89%; other material costs were RMB 988 million, accounting for 33.91%.
• As a Fabless enterprise, the company does not possess wafer manufacturing and packaging and testing capacity; production capacity and delivery capability depend on wafer foundry processes and available capacity, packaging and testing capacity and yield rates, board and server processing supporting capabilities, the company's own tape-out and product introduction capabilities, and customer orders and inventory stocking pace.
• In 2025, intelligent chip and board production volume was 127,673 units, up 409.84% year-over-year; sales volume was 117,436 units, up 201.57% year-over-year; inventory was 857,057 units, up 0.63% year-over-year. This production volume cannot be equated with the company's own manufacturing capacity, and the annual report did not disclose specific wafer foundry names and capacity shares.
• In 2025, the top five suppliers' procurement amount was approximately RMB 5.707 billion, accounting for 75.23% of total annual procurement; the largest supplier's procurement amount was approximately RMB 4.198 billion, accounting for 55.34%. This data comes from the 2025 annual report; supplier names were not publicly listed, and it cannot be further verified whether the largest supplier specifically corresponds to wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, or other comprehensive suppliers.
• The company has relatively limited bargaining power over advanced wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, and high-end boards, and related costs and delivery are affected by advanced processes, packaging technology, capacity, yield rates, and supply chain constraints. The company and some of its subsidiaries have been placed on the U.S. "Entity List," which may increase supply chain switching and procurement stability risks.
• Downstream customers mainly include server manufacturers, telecom operators, internet companies, financial customers, as well as transportation, energy, power, manufacturing, intelligent computing center, and data center customers; products typically enter final application scenarios through server manufacturers, integrators, cloud computing customers, or industry projects.
• The company mainly adopts a direct sales model. In 2025, direct sales revenue was RMB 6.441 billion, accounting for 99.13% of main business revenue; distribution revenue was approximately RMB 56.4169 million.
• In 2025, the top five customers' sales amount was approximately RMB 5.760 billion, accounting for 88.66% of total annual sales; the first, second, fourth, and fifth largest customers' sales amounts were RMB 1.703 billion, RMB 1.401 billion, RMB 764 million, and RMB 655 million, respectively. This data comes from the 2025 annual report; customer names were not fully publicly listed, and the research notes did not provide the third largest customer's amount, making it impossible to verify the ultimate industry attributes and order stability of individual customers one by one.
• Downstream customer concentration is relatively high, mainly because AI chips need to go through validation and centralized procurement by server manufacturers, operators, internet platforms, and large industry customers. Large customers have relatively large procurement scales, but procurement pace, product roadmap changes, and supplier switching may significantly affect the company's revenue.
• The company primarily faces large server manufacturers, operators, internet companies, and industry customers, rather than ordinary consumer electronics channels. Customers typically have strong bargaining power, and chip unit prices and gross margins depend on product performance, software ecosystem, customer adaptation difficulty, delivery form, and customer procurement capability.
• In 2025, the cloud product line accounted for approximately 99.7% of main business revenue, with a business structure highly concentrated in data center and large model computing power demand, which is conducive to benefiting from AI computing infrastructure construction, but also increases the company's dependence on cloud product iteration, top customer demand, and high-end AI chip supply chains.
• As of December 31, 2025, accounts receivable book value was RMB 671 million, accounting for approximately 10.32% of full-year operating revenue; accounts receivable at the end of 2024 were RMB 305 million, accounting for approximately 25.94% of 2024 operating revenue. Based on a simple calculation of year-end accounts receivable to annual operating revenue, this ratio declined in 2025 compared to 2024. This ratio is not strictly accounts receivable turnover days and may be affected by quarterly revenue structure. In 2025, inventory book value was RMB 4.944 billion, accounting for 36.79% of total assets at period end, up 178.67% from the end of 2024; accounts payable was RMB 765 million, up 48.65% year-over-year, indicating the company engaged in relatively large-scale inventory stocking. Inventory growth helps ensure delivery, but chip iteration and demand changes may bring price decline risks.
• Both supplier concentration and customer concentration are high: in 2025, the top five suppliers accounted for 75.23% of procurement, with the largest supplier accounting for 55.34%; the top five customers accounted for 88.66% of sales. The above data all come from the 2025 annual report, representing single-year disclosure; supplier and customer names were not fully publicly listed, and the research notes did not provide other years' cross-verifiable data, so specific concentration should be based on the latest annual report.

Cambricon is positioned in the technology-intensive chip design and foundation software mid-to-upstream segment, neither an upstream materials enterprise controlling resource control nor a downstream enterprise with terminal brands and platform entry points. The company has certain technology premiums and relatively high software and chip R&D barriers, but is jointly constrained by wafer foundries, packaging and testing, board suppliers, and a few large customers; future profit improvement mainly depends on cloud AI chip volume ramp-up, increased share of high-end products and boards, enhanced software ecosystem and customer stickiness, improved supply chain efficiency, reduced customer concentration, and released economies of scale.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

As of June 30, 2026, the company's latest publicly disclosed financial report is the 2026 semi-annual report. H1 2026 non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.166 billion, up 137.30% year-over-year; non-GAAP net profit accounted for approximately 93.7% of net profit attributable to shareholders. Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 311 million, down 65.83% year-over-year; basic earnings per share was RMB 3.68, up 119.05% year-over-year. As of June 30, 2026, net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company were RMB 13.555 billion, up 14.53% from the end of 2025; total assets were RMB 18.199 billion, up 35.43% from the end of 2025. FY 2025 non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.770 billion, compared to a loss of RMB 865 million in 2024, with basic earnings per share of RMB 4.93.

H1 2026 revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders all achieved high-speed growth, with non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders growing faster than net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating that profit growth mainly came from the main business rather than one-time gains. However, operating cash flow declined 65.83% year-over-year, and the conversion of revenue growth into cash collection still needs subsequent verification. Q2 2026 single-quarter gross margin was approximately 56.10%, up 0.22 percentage points from the same period last year and up approximately 1.77 percentage points from Q1 2026. In 2025, the company achieved annual profitability for the first time since listing.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

According to the Hithink earnings forecast page, as of September 12, 2026, a total of 17 institutions provided earnings forecasts over the past 6 months. The 2026 net profit forecast range is RMB 3.807 billion to RMB 7.549 billion, with EPS forecast range of RMB 6.06 to RMB 12.01; the 2027 net profit forecast range is RMB 8.257 billion to RMB 17.222 billion, with EPS forecast range of RMB 13.14 to RMB 27.41; the 2028 net profit forecast range is RMB 13.565 billion to RMB 35.081 billion, with EPS forecast range of RMB 21.59 to RMB 55.84. Representative brokerages include Huaxin Securities, Western Securities, Zheshang Securities, Guolian Minsheng Securities, and Guohai Securities. Huaxin Securities' 2026-2028 operating revenue data was not fully displayed on the page; some forecast figures on Western Securities' page showed display misalignment, and the original research reports should be used as the authoritative source. 2027-2028 revenue lacks a unified multi-institution average and should not be directly regarded as market consensus expectations.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of the most recent trading day on September 11, 2026, Cambricon's closing price was approximately RMB 1,040, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 654 billion. Different data sources show PE (TTM) of approximately 150.94x to 197x, and PB of approximately 47.75x to 48.33x; the research notes suggest summarizing as static/trailing P/E ratio of approximately 150-200x and P/B ratio of approximately 48x. Aigupiao data shows total market capitalization of approximately RMB 654.008 billion, PE (TTM) of approximately 150.94x, and PB of approximately 48.20x; Benyuan Quantitative data shows total market capitalization of approximately RMB 656.4 billion, PE (TTM) of approximately 197x, and PB of approximately 48.33x; Ashare Dashboard intraday data shows stock price of approximately RMB 1,031.34, total market capitalization of approximately RMB 648.56 billion, PE (TTM) of approximately 194.64x, and PB of approximately 47.75x. Based on a closing price of approximately RMB 1,040 and the Hithink institutional forecast EPS average, the forward PE for 2026-2028 is approximately 116x, 56x, and 33x, respectively, but this calculation is based on forecast EPS and is not the actual PE corresponding to realized performance. The current valuation already incorporates relatively high future growth expectations, and whether it can be digested depends on whether 2026 revenue can reach approximately RMB 15.5 billion to RMB 19.8 billion, whether net profit attributable to shareholders can reach approximately RMB 5.2 billion to RMB 7.2 billion, and order fulfillment, supply chain capacity, product iteration, customer concentration, competitive landscape, and cash flow improvement. Institutional ratings are generally dominated by "Buy" and "Recommended," but different institutions have significant divergence in revenue and profit forecasts, and the related forecasts should not be regarded as certain outcomes.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 H1 2026 Results Maintain High Growth, but Operating Cash Flow Declined Year-over-Year

The company disclosed its 2026 semi-annual report on August 8, 2026. H1 2026 operating revenue was approximately RMB 5.996 billion, up 108.13% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately RMB 2.311 billion, up 122.61% year-over-year; non-GAAP net profit was approximately RMB 2.166 billion, up 137.30% year-over-year; basic earnings per share was RMB 3.68, up 119.05% year-over-year. Net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 311 million, down 65.83% year-over-year. The above data comes from the unaudited 2026 semi-annual report.

4.2 GF Securities Commenced Cambricon STAR Market Market-Making Trading from September 2, 2026

The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an announcement on September 1, 2026, stating that upon GF Securities' filing application, market-making trading business for Cambricon (688256) would commence from September 2, 2026. This matter pertains to trading mechanisms and liquidity arrangements, and may improve bilateral quotes and trading continuity during certain periods, but does not represent changes in the company's fundamentals, earnings forecasts, valuation, orders, financing, or business cooperation.

4.3 2026 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan Completed Procedures Related to Initial Grant

The company reviewed the restricted stock incentive plan on July 28, 2026, and disclosed related adjustments and the initial grant announcement on August 18, 2026. The plan intends to grant 5 million restricted shares, accounting for approximately 0.80% of the company's total share capital of 628,292,969 shares at the time of the announcement; of which 4 million shares were initially granted, with 1 million shares reserved. The initial grant incentive recipients were 945 people, with an initial grant price of RMB 49.40 per share. Subsequent attention should be paid to share vesting conditions, performance assessment requirements, and share-based payment expense impact.

4.4 Partial Vesting and Listing of Shares under the 2023 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan

The company disclosed on August 18, 2026 the vesting results and share listing announcement for the first vesting period of the reserved grant portion under the 2023 restricted stock incentive plan. This matter will increase the company's outstanding shares, but the public search summary did not fully disclose the actual number of shares vested and listed this time; there is data missing on the specific number of vested shares, and the original announcement by the company or the Shanghai Stock Exchange should be used as the authoritative source.

4.5 Block Trades Occurred in September; Counterparties and Whether Major Shareholder Reduction Is Involved Remain Unclear

Public market data shows that as of September 10, 2026, the company had 1 block trade, with a trading volume of 3,000 shares, an average transaction price of RMB 1,043.84, and a transaction amount of approximately RMB 3.132 million, with a discount/premium rate of 0%; as of September 11, 2026, public information shows 6 block trades occurred, with a total volume of 194,600 shares and a transaction amount of approximately RMB 202.4 million. Existing information did not disclose the identities of buyers and sellers, nor was any clear correspondence found with reduction plans of the controlling shareholder, actual controller, or shareholders holding 5% or more, and it cannot be directly determined as a reduction by major shareholders.

4.6 Changes in Top Ten Shareholders and Certain Shareholder Holdings

As of June 30, 2026, among the top ten shareholders disclosed in the semi-annual report, Chen Tianshi held approximately 178.1 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 28.35%; Beijing Zhongke Suanyuan Asset Management Co., Ltd. held approximately 97.8479 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 15.57%; Beijing Aixi Technology Center (Limited Partnership) held approximately 45.6623 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 7.27%. Public media compilation shows that Zhang Wei increased holdings by approximately 4.3437 million shares in Q2 2026, holding approximately 7.45 million shares as of June 30, 2026, with a shareholding ratio of approximately 1.19%; Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited held approximately 22.018 million shares, an increase of approximately 11.2803 million shares from the end of Q1. The above changes are not equivalent to shareholder increase plan announcements issued by the company, and the company's periodic reports and ChinaClear calibers should be used as the authoritative source.

4.7 2025 Profit Distribution and Capital Reserve Share Conversion Implemented

The company's 2026 semi-annual report disclosed that the 2025 annual profit distribution totaled approximately RMB 632 million in cash dividends (including tax), with a capital reserve conversion of 4.9 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling approximately 206.61 million shares converted. After the implementation of the equity distribution, the company's total share capital increased to approximately 628.29 million shares. This matter was implemented in May 2026 and will affect earnings per share, net assets per share, stock price ex-rights adjustments, and the comparability of historical shareholder shareholding quantities.

4.8 Restricted Shares Unlocked on August 20, 2026

Public market calendar shows that the company had approximately 597,600 restricted shares listed for trading on August 20, 2026. Existing information does not show whether the relevant shareholders actually reduced holdings after the unlock, so this matter can only be regarded as a potential increase in supply and cannot be directly determined as reduction behavior.

4.9 No New Share Repurchase Announcements Found as of September 13, 2026

As of September 13, 2026, based on searches using relevant keywords, no new share repurchase plans, repurchase progress, or repurchase cancellation announcements disclosed by the company in September 2026 were found. The 2026 semi-annual report disclosed that the conversion base for the 2025 annual profit distribution excluded 36,600 shares in the repurchase dedicated securities account; this information only indicates that the company has a small number of shares in the repurchase dedicated account, and it cannot be inferred that there were new repurchase operations in September 2026.

4.10 No New Earnings Previews or Earnings Flash Reports Disclosed as of September 13, 2026

As of September 13, 2026, no new earnings previews, earnings flash reports, or profit forecast revision announcements for Q3 2026 or FY 2026 were retrieved. The most recent formal performance information was the semi-annual report disclosed on August 8, 2026; H1 realized performance is not a future earnings preview and cannot be directly regarded as the company's official full-year guidance.

4.11 Litigation Regarding Former Deputy General Manager's Labor Relationship and Equity Incentive Losses Has Not Yet Been Heard

The company's 2026 semi-annual report disclosed that the plaintiff is Liang Jun, former deputy general manager of the company, and the litigation claims include confirmation of the labor relationship from October 18, 2017 to February 10, 2022, and compensation for equity incentive losses, with the publicly disclosed claimed amount for equity incentive losses approximately RMB 4.2866 billion. As of June 30, 2026, the case has been accepted by the court, and the company has received a copy of the complaint, but the hearing has not yet been held. The company expects the litigation to have no impact on current period profit, and the post-period impact needs further assessment based on the court's effective judgment. The plaintiff's claimed amount is not equal to the final compensation amount and does not mean the company has recognized a liability.

4.12 No Major M&A or Restructuring and September 2026 Regulatory Penalty Announcements Retrieved

As of September 13, 2026, no newly disclosed major asset purchases, sales, M&A, restructuring, or major external investment announcements by the company in September 2026 were retrieved. Recent regulatory and trading mechanism-related matters mainly include the addition of GF Securities market-making trading, as well as disclosures in the semi-annual report and continuous supervision tracking report regarding raised funds, corporate governance, and shareholdings of shareholders and directors, supervisors, and senior management. As of now, no September 2026 announcements by the company regarding information disclosure violations, regulatory measures, disciplinary actions, or investigations have been retrieved.

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

Cambricon closed at RMB 1,040.00 as of September 11, 2026, in a weak consolidation range above the 52-week low of RMB 950.00 after a significant pullback from the 52-week high of RMB 1,966.00. The closing price is below the self-calculated MA5, MA10, and MA20 and the Bollinger middle band, MACD remains negative, RSI is in neutral territory, and the technical picture has not yet formed clear reversal confirmation. In terms of short-term price structure, RMB 1,065-1,080 is the primary rebound resistance, RMB 1,090-1,120 is a stronger resistance zone; RMB 1,000-1,015 is the first support, and RMB 950-970 is strong support. September 11 turnover expanded to RMB 11.057 billion, but super-large and large order capital directions diverged, and the volume expansion has not yet been confirmed by an upward price breakout.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is solely a subjective scenario projection based on September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices, and technical indicators, does not constitute investment advice, and does not represent a certain prediction of future stock prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high weight, approximately 50%-60%; this weight is a subjective judgment based on current technical picture and capital flows, not a statistical probability): Observation range of RMB 1,000-1,080. Trigger conditions include holding the RMB 1,000-1,015 area, turnover maintained at approximately RMB 7-11 billion, repeated contention around MA20 but no effective breakout, and no significant one-way decline in the semiconductor and computing power sectors. Subsequent direction focuses on whether the RMB 1,065-1,080 resistance zone can be broken through with volume.
• Weaker Downside (medium weight, approximately 30%; this weight is a subjective judgment based on current technical picture and capital flows, not a statistical probability): Observation range of RMB 950-1,015. Trigger conditions include closing price effectively breaking below RMB 1,000, turnover expanding but price continuing to close lower, super-large and large order capital resuming consecutive net outflows, or the semiconductor and high-valuation technology stock sectors weakening simultaneously. The first observation area is the Bollinger lower band near RMB 970; if breached, it may further test the recent low of RMB 950; after breaking below RMB 950, the technical structure will clearly weaken.
• Rebound Strengthening (relatively low weight, approximately 10%-20%; this weight is a subjective judgment based on current technical picture and capital flows, not a statistical probability): Observation range of RMB 1,080-1,120, with strong scenarios observed up to RMB 1,140-1,170. Trigger conditions include regaining RMB 1,065-1,080, turnover continuously expanding to above RMB 12 billion, super-large and large order capital consecutive net inflows, simultaneous strengthening in semiconductor, computing power, or domestic AI chip sectors, and MACD negative value converging with a clear golden cross or continuous histogram improvement. Only if it breaks through RMB 1,090-1,120 with volume can the rebound space potentially expand to the RMB 1,140-1,170 area.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, turnover over the past 5 trading days was approximately RMB 5.939 billion to RMB 11.057 billion, turnover rate approximately 0.90%-1.71%, average turnover approximately RMB 8.845 billion, average turnover rate approximately 1.33%; total market capitalization approximately RMB 654.008 billion, with strong absolute trading liquidity, not a low-liquidity small-cap stock, but relative to its mega market capitalization, recent turnover rate is not high, with limited chip exchange ratio. Shareholder data as of June 30, 2026, announcement date August 8, 2026: top ten shareholders collectively held approximately 370 million shares, accounting for approximately 58.95% of total share capital; the top three natural persons or affiliated asset management platforms collectively held approximately 51.2%, with high concentration. Among the top ten shareholders are Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited and Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF, Harvest SSE STAR Chip ETF, E Fund SSE STAR 50 ETF, indicating the existence of index-based and institutional capital allocation, but ETF combined shareholding ratio is relatively limited, and it cannot be determined that public funds have formed a consensus heavy position. Since shareholder data is more than two months old from the market date, the chip structure may have changed during the period, and it is only suitable as a medium-term background reference. In actual trading, higher concentration may mean limited circulating chip exchange; however, the current turnover scale is relatively large, and it cannot be inferred that there are typical thin order book characteristics of low-liquidity small-cap stocks.

Based on the recent average turnover of approximately RMB 8.8 billion, if single-day turnover reaches above RMB 12 billion in the next week and is maintained for two consecutive trading days, while the closing price stands above RMB 1,065-1,080, this can serve as an observation signal for short-term rebound volume-price confirmation; if turnover reaches above RMB 12 billion but the closing price breaks below RMB 1,000, it is closer to volume-driven risk release rather than upward confirmation.

④ Key Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observation idea, not trading instruction: Watch whether the RMB 1,000-1,015 support is effective; if breached, observe the absorption situation near RMB 970 and RMB 950.
• Observation idea, not trading instruction: For rebounds, first observe the RMB 1,065-1,080 moving average resistance, and further observe the RMB 1,090-1,120 strong resistance zone.
• Observation idea, not trading instruction: Watch whether turnover can continuously reach above RMB 12 billion and synchronize with the price standing above RMB 1,065-1,080, avoiding judging trend reversal based solely on single-day volume expansion.
• Observation idea, not trading instruction: Watch whether super-large and large order capital can continuously net inflow, and the lag of shareholder concentration data as of June 30, 2026.

The above scenario projection is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices, technical indicator calculations; short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors including news, capital flows, and overall market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of future actual trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please combine the latest market information to make independent judgments and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The AI chip industry is in a stage of rapid development and continuous technological route evolution, and has not yet formed a pattern where a single architecture comprehensively dominates all scenarios including training, inference, edge, and terminal. Industry competition revolves not only around chip computing performance, but also involves memory capacity and bandwidth, advanced processes and packaging, software toolchains, mainstream AI framework and large model adaptation, customer validation, mass production delivery, and server manufacturer and developer ecosystems. Research notes indicate that NVIDIA remains in a clearly leading position in the global AI chip market, while multiple traditional chip companies and AI chip startups participate in competition domestically.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Global GPU and accelerated computing platform vendors: Represented by NVIDIA and AMD, covering chip, software, networking, and server-level system capabilities.
• Domestic platform-based enterprises: Represented by Huawei Ascend, covering AI processors, Atlas modules, boards, servers, clusters, and end-edge-cloud industry solutions.
• Domestic listed chip design enterprises: Including Cambricon, Hygon Information, Jingjia Micro, etc., competing in AI accelerators, CPU/DCU, graphics and AI computing chips, and other fields.
• Domestic AI chip startups: Including Biren Technology, MetaX, Moore Threads, etc.; some enterprises have not yet formed publicly comparable financial calibers to Cambricon.
• Core industry competitive factors include chip architecture and computing performance, memory capacity and bandwidth, advanced process and packaging capabilities, software development toolchains, AI framework and large model adaptation capabilities, customer validation and mass production delivery capabilities, and the number of ecosystem partners, server manufacturers, and developers.
• Cambricon's main opportunities are concentrated in domestic substitution, domestic supply chain security, and local customer adaptation; main constraints include competition with global and domestic platform-based enterprises, software ecosystem construction, access to advanced manufacturing resources, and large customer concentration.

6.3 Major Competitors

Cambricon has product or application scenario overlaps with Huawei Ascend, NVIDIA, AMD, Hygon Information, and Jingjia Micro, but each company's product scope, business model, and degree of vertical integration differ. Cambricon's characteristics are focus on AI-specific intelligent processors, cloud-edge-terminal chips, and supporting foundation software, adopting a Fabless model, with a relatively asset-light business model; compared to Huawei and NVIDIA, its system-level resources, networking and server integration capabilities, and software ecosystem maturity are weaker; compared to Hygon Information, its products are more concentrated in AI-specific chips rather than CPU and DCU collaboration; compared to Jingjia Micro, it leans more toward data center AI training and inference and a unified foundation software ecosystem. The above comparable relationships are at the business and industry chain level, and do not represent fully comparable financial calibers.

7. Risk Warnings

• Business structure highly concentrated in cloud product line: In 2025, cloud product line revenue accounted for approximately 99.7% of main business revenue, edge product line revenue declined 48.12% year-over-year, and IP licensing and software revenue scale is small. If data center or large model training and inference demand, top customer procurement pace, or cloud product iteration falls short of expectations, the company's overall performance may be significantly affected.
• High customer concentration: In 2025, the top five customers accounted for 88.66% of sales, large customers have strong bargaining power, and customer names were not fully publicly listed. If major customers delay orders, adjust product roadmaps, switch suppliers, or fluctuate procurement scale, it may significantly impact revenue recognition and gross margin.
• High supply chain concentration and external dependence: The company adopts a Fabless model and does not own a wafer fab or proprietary wafer production lines in the traditional sense; in 2025, the top five suppliers accounted for 75.23% of procurement, with the largest supplier accounting for 55.34%. Changes in capacity, yield, cost, and delivery of advanced wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, high-end boards, and server supporting components may affect product mass production and profitability.
• Inventory scale growth brings price decline and demand mismatch risks: As of the end of 2025, inventory book value was RMB 4.944 billion, accounting for 36.79% of total assets at period end, up 178.67% from the end of 2024, with the company engaging in relatively large-scale inventory stocking during the same period. If chip technology iterates, customer demand changes, or product sales fall short of expectations, it may increase inventory backlog and impairment pressure.
• Cash flow and profit growth mismatch: H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.311 billion, non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.166 billion, but net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 311 million, down 65.83% year-over-year. If receivable collection, inventory turnover, or customer settlement conditions do not improve, it may affect the cash realization quality of performance growth.
• Valuation at high level and high requirements for growth fulfillment: As of September 11, 2026, the company's trailing P/E ratio was approximately 150.94x, P/B ratio approximately 48.20x, and institutional forecasts for 2026 revenue and profit have significant divergence. If actual orders, product volume ramp-up, gross margin, or cash flow fall short of expectations, valuation fluctuations may be amplified.
• The company faces strong domestic and international competitive pressure: Cambricon faces competition from NVIDIA, AMD, Huawei Ascend, Hygon Information, Jingjia Micro, and other domestic AI chip enterprises in cloud AI chips and foundation software; compared to some platform-based competitors, the company's collaborative capabilities in servers, networking, system integration, and software ecosystem are relatively weak, and customer validation and developer ecosystem construction require continuous investment.
• The company and some of its subsidiaries have been placed on the U.S. "Entity List," which may increase supply chain switching and procurement stability risks; at the same time, the company does not yet have its own wafer manufacturing and packaging and testing capacity, and external restrictions or supplier adjustments may affect access to advanced manufacturing resources.
• The company faces litigation filed by former deputy general manager Liang Jun regarding labor relations and equity incentive losses, with the publicly disclosed claimed amount for equity incentive losses approximately RMB 4.2866 billion, and the case had not been heard as of June 30, 2026. The claimed amount is not equal to the final compensation amount, and the company has not recognized the related liability, but subsequent judgment results may have an impact on the company.
• As of September 11, 2026, the stock price remains below the self-calculated MA5, MA10, MA20, and Bollinger middle band, with MACD in negative territory; if the RMB 1,000-1,015 support is breached, technically the RMB 970 and RMB 950 areas may be further observed. When this technical risk overlaps with block trades, restricted share unlocks, and shareholder holding changes, short-term price volatility may intensify.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Cambricon's current core growth logic lies in expanding cloud AI chip and board demand, domestic substitution and local customer adaptation, and customer stickiness brought by chip and foundation software collaboration. H1 2026 non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders grew faster than net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating that phased profit growth mainly came from the main business; if subsequent product iteration, customer validation, mass production delivery, and software ecosystem construction can continue, economies of scale may still support revenue and profit growth.

Market institutions generally give relatively high expectations for 2026 performance, but forecast ranges diverge significantly, with 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast at approximately RMB 5.220 billion to RMB 7.171 billion, and revenue forecast at approximately RMB 15.583 billion to RMB 19.797 billion; the related forecasts are not official company guidance. Whether the current high valuation can be digested by performance depends on order fulfillment, product volume ramp-up, gross margin stability, supply chain assurance, and cash flow improvement; the decline in operating cash flow in H1 2026 and relatively high inventory scale indicate that growth quality still needs continuous observation.

The company's short-term stock price remains in a stage where technical repair is unconfirmed, turnover has expanded but capital directions diverge, and no clear volume-price reversal signal has yet formed. Subsequent focus should be on cloud product revenue and gross margin, customer concentration changes, inventory and accounts receivable collection, operating cash flow, access to advanced manufacturing and packaging resources, and progress in litigation and equity incentive-related matters.

Data Sources

• Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited 2024 Annual Report
• About Us - Cambricon
• Company Announcements_Cambricon: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Cambricon NeuWare - Cambricon
• Cambricon (688256)_Company Announcements_Cambricon: 2023 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Ascend Computing - Huawei Ascend - AI Computing - Huawei Enterprise Business
• NVIDIA Data Center in the AI Inference Era
• Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. 2025 Semi-Annual Report
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• Cambricon (688256)_Company Announcements_Cambricon: 2025 Annual Report Summary Sina Finance_Sina
• Cambricon (688256)_Company Announcements_Cambricon: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Cambricon (688256) 2026 Semi-Annual Report Review: H1 2026 Revenue/Profit Doubled, CSP Customers Successfully Expanded Scaled Training Scenarios__Sina Finance_Sina
• Cambricon (688256) Earnings Forecast_F10_Hithink Financial Services Network
• Earnings Forecast
• Earnings Forecast
• Goldman Sachs Raises Cambricon Target Price, How to Capture the Domestic Chip "Cambricon Moment"? Chip ETF JingShun (159560) Covers Core Chip Industry Chain_Sina Finance_Sina
• Cambricon (688256) Stock Forecast and Analyst Ratings - Futu Niuniu
• Cambricon (688256) Stock Analyst Consensus Estimates_Market Sentiment_Investing.com
• Cambricon sh688256 Stock Price, Quotes, Live, News, Financials, Data - Aigupiao
• Cambricon (688256) - Stock Quotes | Benyuan Quantitative
• Single Stock Research
• Announcement on the STAR Market Listing and Trading of RMB Ordinary Shares of Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited | Shanghai Stock Exchange
• Announcement on GF Securities Co., Ltd. Conducting Market-Making Trading Business for STAR Market Stock Cambricon | Shanghai Stock Exchange
• Cambricon_ Individual Stock Calendar _ East Money _ Data Channel
• Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited 2026 Semi-Annual Report
• Cambricon (688256) - Major Events Memo - Stock Quote Center - Sohu Securities
• Cambricon (688256) Company Announcements_Sina Finance_Sina
• Cambricon (688256)_Company Announcements_Cambricon: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. Regarding Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited 2026 Semi-Annual Continuous Supervision Tracking Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Cambricon: H1 2026 Net Profit RMB 2.311 Billion, Up 122.61% Year-over-Year _ East Money
• Cambricon sh688256 Stock Price, Quotes, Live, News, Financials, Data - Aigupiao
• Chiyu Banking Corporation
• Cambricon (688256) - Historical Trading Data | Daban Ke
• Cambricon (688256) Stock Price Trend Technical Analysis_Future Forecast_Buy Sell Operation Suggestions_Investing.com
• Cambricon (688256)_Capital Flows_Stockstar
• Cambricon (688256) - Block Trades - Stock Quote Center - Sohu Securities
• Cambricon (688256) Major Shareholders_Sina Finance_Sina

This report is automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of Data as of September 11, 2026 close; closing market data primarily uses Aigupiao data as of September 11, 2026 15:00:07, and certain technical indicators and shareholder data may have different calibers or lags., and there may be timeliness differences; specific data should be based on the company's formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is solely for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.