Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (688599)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Photovoltaic Equipment　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　September 11, 2026 Close (the latest trading-day data for the stock, confirmed consistently by multiple sources); cached/stale snapshots of RMB 16.18, RMB 12.09, RMB 12.07 and RMB 14.47 from different dates have been excluded from the research notes

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

The most important current fundamental characteristic of Trina Solar is that “the core business has not yet substantively returned to profitability, although the earnings mix is beginning to improve.” In the first half of 2026, the company generated revenue of RMB 31.985 billion, up 2.99% year on year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of RMB 270 million, narrowing the loss by 90.75% year on year. However, net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items remained a loss of RMB 2.890 billion. The improvement in attributable profit mainly included approximately RMB 2.620 billion in non-recurring gains and therefore should not be interpreted as a return to profitability for the module business. In 2025, revenue was RMB 66.975 billion, down 16.61% year on year, attributable net profit was a loss of RMB 7.031 billion, and the gross margin of photovoltaic products was -1.42%.

The company’s second growth curve is progressing relatively quickly. In the first half of 2026, energy-storage revenue was RMB 2.47 billion, up 92.3% year on year, while shipments exceeded 5GWh, up 188%; gross margin reached 21.00%. Digital-energy services had a gross margin of 52.45%, and system solutions had a gross margin of 8.10%. During the same period, overseas revenue was RMB 17.10 billion, accounting for 53.46% of total revenue, with an overseas gross margin of 8.11%, slightly above the domestic gross margin of 6.99%. This indicates that energy storage, digital energy and overseas operations are helping improve the overall earnings mix.

Photovoltaic products remain the company’s main source of revenue. Its module shipments rank among the global leaders, and cumulative shipments of 210 modules are globally leading. The company is also continuing R&D on TOPCon 3.0, THBC and tandem-module technologies. However, the module business continues to face overcapacity, price competition and margin pressure from rising costs of polysilicon, silver paste and other raw materials. Although the gross margin of photovoltaic products recovered to 1.27% in the first half of 2026, it remained the lowest among the company’s four major business segments.

As of September 11, 2026, the company’s share price closed at RMB 10.75, down more than 25% from approximately RMB 14.4 in mid-August and below the calculated MA5, MA10 and MA20. The intraday low of RMB 10.54 marked a new recent low. Total market capitalization was approximately RMB 25.183 billion, and PB was approximately 1.24x. Technically, the stock remains in a downward channel. Main-fund flows have recently recorded consecutive net outflows, but the share price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, indicating short-term oversold and consolidation characteristics.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Photovoltaic products: R&D, production and sales of PV modules (the main product), including cells and wafers
• Energy storage: Utility-scale, commercial and industrial, and residential energy-storage systems, as well as battery cells, battery containers, PCS and integrated smart energy-management systems; primarily operated through Trina Storage, with production bases in Chuzhou, Yancheng and other locations
• System solutions: Trackers (Trina Tracker was established after the 2018 acquisition of a 51% stake in Spain’s NClave), distributed systems, utility-scale power plants and other businesses
• Digital-energy services: Renewable-energy O&M, renewable-energy generation (self-owned power plants), virtual power plants, solar-storage-charging solutions, electricity procurement and sales, and other services

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost/Profit Structure

Trina Solar positions itself as a global leading provider of integrated smart PV-energy solutions. Since 2025, it has externally presented its business as four major segments: photovoltaic products, energy storage, system solutions and digital-energy services. From a revenue perspective, photovoltaic products, primarily modules, remain dominant, but energy storage and system solutions are expanding rapidly. The company operates in midstream manufacturing and system integration. It is largely a price taker for upstream polysilicon, silver paste and other raw materials. Downstream, it serves relatively concentrated power-plant developers and distributed channels, with bargaining power constrained by industry cycles and overcapacity.

• The company states that its main purchased raw materials include polysilicon, silver paste, metal profiles (aluminum frames) and lithium carbonate. The 2025 annual report’s operating analysis also lists polysilicon, glass and metal profiles, while the energy-storage business uses battery cells and lithium carbonate. Sources: Tonghuashun F10 operating analysis and the 2025 annual report.
• Procurement model: a globalized supply-chain footprint and long-term suppliers; for raw materials subject to significant price volatility, the company uses industrial hedging and long-term contracts to lock in supply and prices; an online procurement mall is used for centralized supplier management.
• Bargaining position: generally a price taker upstream. The 2025 annual report explicitly attributed the loss to the rapid increase in the cost of key raw materials such as polysilicon and silver paste, which caused the profitability of the module business to decline year on year. In other words, although anti-involution measures drove module price increases in the second half of 2025, upstream polysilicon and silver-paste prices rose faster, squeezing module margins.
• Procurement from the top five suppliers: the research notes did not provide this specific figure; the annual-report notes should be consulted.
• Downstream customers include utility-scale power-plant developers, distributed residential and commercial/industrial customers, energy-storage system integrators and overseas distribution channels.
• Customer concentration: the research notes did not provide the combined share of the top five customers; the latest annual report should be used.
• Structural bargaining dynamics: in an overcapacity cycle, PV module suppliers typically have limited pricing power against downstream power-plant developers and EPC contractors. On the distributed side, Trina Home has more than 2,000 agents, over 15,000 service outlets organized at the township level and has cumulatively served more than 1.4 million households, giving it a degree of channel stickiness.
• The cumulative scale of residential power-plant O&M increased from 15.2GW in September 2024 to nearly 26GW at the end of December 2025, indicating continued expansion of the downstream O&M service network.
• The research notes did not provide quantitative data on accounts receivable/revenue, accounts-receivable turnover days, prepayments/accounts payable or other working-capital usage. It is therefore impossible to assess the company’s actual bargaining strength in the value chain on this basis. Details of accounts receivable and accounts payable should be supplemented from the 2025 annual report before further assessment.
• Neither customer concentration, measured by the combined share of the top five customers, nor supplier concentration, measured by procurement from the top five suppliers, was provided in the research notes. Cross-verification is not possible; the latest annual report and announcements should be treated as authoritative.

The company remains positioned in the midstream manufacturing and system-integration portion of the smile curve. The PV module business has thin margins and high cyclicality, with limited bargaining power over upstream polysilicon and silver-paste prices. However, energy storage, with a 21% gross margin in 2026H1, and digital-energy services, with a 52.45% gross margin, are gradually extending toward higher-value-added system solutions and downstream services. These are the core drivers of future gross-margin improvement. Further margin expansion will depend on a sustained increase in the revenue contribution of energy storage and digital-energy services, expansion in high-margin overseas markets, and product-mix optimization in the module business through TOPCon 3.0 and THBC technology upgrades.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Sources: 2026 interim report (disclosed 2026-08-06; China Securities Journal Online, eastmoney, National Business Daily, Securities Star and others), 2026 first-quarter report (Soochow Securities and Great Wall Securities commentaries), 2025 annual report (disclosed 2026-04-29; eastmoney and others), and 2024 annual report (Xinhua Finance, eastmoney, Securities Star and others). The 2024 comparative figures in the 2025 annual report differ between “adjusted” and “before adjustment” figures due to accounting restatements; the original annual report should be treated as authoritative.

The RMB 270 million attributable loss in 2026H1 narrowed 90.75% year on year, but included approximately RMB 2.620 billion in non-recurring gains, primarily investment income and fair-value changes from the disposal of shares in T1 Energy Inc. Net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items remained a loss of RMB 2.890 billion, compared with a loss of RMB 2.956 billion in the prior-year period, essentially unchanged. Therefore, a narrower loss does not equal a substantive improvement in the core business. Attributable net profit in 2026Q2 turned positive at RMB 13 million, but net profit excluding non-recurring items remained a loss of RMB 1.423 billion. Net cash flow from operating activities in 2026H1 was RMB 5.072 billion, up 175.14% year on year. By segment, photovoltaic-product revenue was RMB 17.79 billion, down 11.4%, with a 1.27% gross margin, up approximately 3.8 percentage points; energy-storage revenue was RMB 2.47 billion, up 92.3%, with a 21.0% gross margin, up 5.4 percentage points, and shipments above 5GWh, up 188%; system-solutions revenue was RMB 9.604 billion. Overseas revenue accounted for 53.46%, and module shipments exceeded 25GW in the first half. In 2025, photovoltaic-product revenue was RMB 45.14 billion, down 19.0%, with a gross margin of -1.42%; energy-storage revenue was approximately RMB 4.28 billion, up 83.3%, with a 14.69% gross margin; full-year module shipments exceeded 67GW and energy-storage shipments exceeded 8GWh.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

All figures above are sell-side forecasts, not company disclosures. Sources: Guotai Haitong Securities (2026-08-18), China Post Securities (2026-08-10, initial coverage), Guojin Securities (2026-09-04), Great Wall Securities (2026-05-08) and CICC (2026-09-09). The consensus summary is from Tonghuashun iFinD (as of the 2026-04-30 reporting basis; 12 institutions issued research reports during the preceding six months). Institutional disagreement is substantial: 2026 attributable-net-profit forecasts range from a loss of RMB 1.643 billion to a profit of RMB 3.553 billion, a spread of more than RMB 5 billion. The company’s own equity-incentive plan targets 2026 net profit of at least RMB 200 million, 2027 net profit of at least RMB 3.2 billion, or cumulative 2026–2027 net profit of at least RMB 3.4 billion (cited in a Guotai Haitong report dated 2026-01-26), which may serve as a reference point.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

On the 2026-08-06 interim-report disclosure date, the share price was RMB 13.83 and total market capitalization approximately RMB 32.4 billion (another report cited RMB 13.81 that day). On 2026-04-30, the 2025 annual-report date, one report cited a latest price of RMB 12.33. On 2024-08-30, the 2024 interim-report date, the share price was RMB 17.24 and market capitalization was RMB 37.57 billion. CICC’s 2026-09-09 report implied that the share price at that time corresponded to 16.1x 2027E PE and 1.3x PB. A gap remains: independent real-time data for the latest trading-day close, total market capitalization, dynamic PE (TTM), PB and 52-week high/low could not be obtained and should be checked through a market-data terminal. Based on 2026H1 attributable net profit of negative RMB 270 million and net profit excluding non-recurring items of negative RMB 2.890 billion, PE (TTM) is likely negative or extremely high and has little conventional comparative value. More appropriate valuation anchors are the 2027E PE used by sell-side analysts, approximately 16–25x, and PB of approximately 1.3–2.0x. Investors should note that the loss reduction included substantial one-off factors, including approximately RMB 2.620 billion in non-recurring gains from the disposal of T1 Energy equity. Valuation should therefore focus on the excluding-non-recurring-items basis and recovery earnings in 2027. Institutional forecasts vary widely, while target-price methodologies are inconsistent: RMB 20.0, RMB 19.47, RMB 25.5 and RMB 26.42 refer to different dates, PE assumptions and base years and cannot simply be averaged. The 2024 data also contains adjusted/unadjusted restatement differences. All financial forecasts and target prices represent sell-side views rather than company disclosures.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Interim Earnings Forecast (Announcement No. 2026-058)

On the evening of July 16, 2026, the company disclosed, with an announcement date of July 17, its 2026 interim earnings forecast. It expects attributable net profit in 2026H1 to be a loss of RMB 360 million to RMB 180 million, and attributable net profit excluding non-recurring items to be a loss of RMB 2.960 billion to RMB 2.780 billion, unaudited. In the prior-year period, attributable net profit was a loss of RMB 2.918 billion, net profit excluding non-recurring items was a loss of RMB 2.956 billion, and basic EPS was negative RMB 1.34. The company attributed the change to a higher proportion of high-quality module orders and improved profitability; positive profit contributions from energy storage and distributed-system businesses; and relatively high investment income from the partial disposal of previously strategic equity assets, with a substantial fair-value gain recognized as the fair value of the remaining equity increased. China Securities Journal Online, China Fund News, Securities Times e Company and Securities Star all reported the same figures.

4.2 2026 Interim Results

The 2026 interim report has been disclosed: revenue was RMB 31.985 billion, up 2.99% year on year; attributable net profit was a loss of RMB 2.7 billion, narrowing the loss by 90.75%; net profit excluding non-recurring items was a loss of RMB 2.890 billion; and Q2 revenue was RMB 15.156 billion, down 9.36%, while quarterly attributable net profit was RMB 13.2067 million, turning positive year on year. The debt-to-asset ratio was 77.7% and gross margin was 7.59%. Note: The interim figures were reproduced by multiple sources. The RMB 2.7 billion attributable loss falls within the RMB 180 million–RMB 360 million loss range in the earnings forecast, supporting a relatively high level of credibility.

4.3 2026 First-Quarter Results

2026Q1 revenue was RMB 16.830 billion, up 17.40%; attributable net profit was a loss of RMB 283 million, narrowing the loss by 78.55% year on year; net profit excluding non-recurring items was a loss of RMB 1.467 billion; and fair-value-change gains were approximately RMB 1.14 billion, mainly because the T1 Energy equity changed from the equity method to fair-value measurement.

4.4 2025 Annual Results

The 2025 annual report showed revenue of RMB 66.975 billion, down 16.61%; attributable net profit of negative RMB 7.031 billion, down 106.06%; and ROE of -30.61%.

4.5 Share Repurchase Completed (Announcement No. 2026-036)

Repurchase plan: approved by the board on 2024-06-25 and first disclosed on 2024-06-26; intended repurchase amount of RMB 1.0–1.2 billion, with a maximum price of RMB 31.00 per share, for conversion of the company’s convertible bonds. On 2025-05-22, the board extended the implementation period by nine months to 2026-03-24 and changed the funding sources from internal funds to internal and self-raised funds. Implementation results, disclosed in Announcement No. 2026-036 on 2026-03-25: the repurchase was completed on 2026-03-23, with 54,191,086 shares repurchased, representing 2.31% of total shares; the price range was RMB 13.64–24.91 per share, the average price was RMB 18.48 per share and total consideration was RMB 1,001,275,293.60, or approximately RMB 1.001 billion excluding expenses. Actual execution did not differ from the disclosed plan, although the RMB 1.2 billion ceiling was not reached. Progress during the period: 42,327,867 shares, or 1.81%, had been repurchased as of 2025-12-31, for RMB 775 million; and 43.6032 million shares, or 1.86%, had been repurchased as of 2026-01-31, for RMB 802 million.

4.6 Share Placement by the Actual Controller and Concert Parties

On the evening of 2026-08-10, actual controller Gao Jifan and concert party Jiangsu Panji Investment proposed to sell a total of 36.30 million shares through an inquiry-based transfer, representing 1.55% of total shares. Gao Jifan planned to transfer 36.10 million shares. On 2026-08-11, the transfer was fully subscribed at RMB 12.59 per share, for approximately RMB 457 million. A total of 33 institutions participated in the bidding, and 9 institutions were initially selected as transferees, which may not transfer the shares within six months after the transfer. Upon completion, the combined stake held by Gao Jifan and his concert parties would fall from 32.59% to 31.04%; Gao Jifan’s personal stake would decline from 11.28% to approximately 9.74%, falling below 10% for the first time. The company said the disposal was driven by its own funding needs.

4.7 Background to the Actual Controller’s Share Disposal and Company Response

Jiaohuidian News/China Jiangsu Net reported on 2026-09-07 that the actual controller’s share disposal may be related to the maturity of a RMB 4.569 billion loan Gao Jifan borrowed from Xiamen International Trust in February 2017, with repayment extended to September 2026. The report also noted that this was Gao Jifan’s first direct disposal since Trina Solar returned to the A-share market in 2020. Previously, in 2022, he had sold all 10.20 million Tianhe Convertible Bonds and raised RMB 1.02 billion; in March 2024, he transferred 109 million shares to his wife Wu Chunyan through Panji Investment at RMB 20.88 per share, for RMB 2.275 billion. On 2026-09-10, the company responded to investors on an interactive platform that the actual controller’s personal debt was his own personal matter and unrelated to the listed company; the company had not provided guarantees for the debt and bore no repayment responsibility; repayment arrangements had been properly made and the debt would not affect the company’s control. Uncertainty: The RMB 4.569 billion personal debt and its September 2026 maturity are based on media analysis, not official company announcements.

4.8 Historical Shareholder Disposal

On 2024-10-08, Shenzhen Hongyu, which held 5.08%, proposed to dispose of no more than 0.5% through block trades. On 2024-10-31, Shenzhen Hongyu disposed of 1.8146 million shares, or 0.0833%, then terminated the plan early, reducing its stake to 4.999998% and exiting the group of shareholders holding more than 5%.

4.9 Tian 23 Convertible Bonds Expected to Meet Conversion-Price Adjustment Conditions (Announcement No. 2026-071)

Tian 23 Convertible Bonds (118031) were issued on 2023-02-13 in an amount of 88.64751 million bonds, with a total principal amount of RMB 8.865 billion, a maturity date of 2029-02-12 and an initial conversion price of RMB 69.69 per share. The company issued a reminder announcement on 2026-09-10 that the bonds were expected to meet the conditions for adjusting the conversion price under Announcement No. 2026-071. The underlying share price had remained below a specified percentage of the conversion price, triggering observation of the downward-adjustment clause. This is a potential dilution and conversion-price-adjustment matter requiring attention. Whether an actual adjustment will occur depends on a subsequent board resolution and remains undecided.

4.10 Progress on External Guarantees (Announcement No. 2026-070)

The company disclosed on 2026-09-02 that new guarantees of RMB 1.145 billion were added from 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-31. As of the announcement date, outstanding external guarantees amounted to RMB 44.851 billion, representing 209.02% of the most recently audited net assets; guarantees to subsidiaries within the consolidated group totaled RMB 42.933 billion. There were no overdue guarantees. The maximum guarantee quota approved by shareholders for 2026 was RMB 117.3 billion, while the maximum aggregate credit quota was RMB 140.0 billion. These were approved by the board on 2025-12-12 and by the extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on 2025-12-29.

4.11 STAR Market Market-Making

According to a Shanghai Stock Exchange announcement, Industrial Securities began market-making transactions in Trina Solar shares on the STAR Market from 2025-01-02.

4.12 Historical Major Capital Transactions (2024)

• On 2024-07-04, the company terminated its 2023 private A-share offering, originally planned to raise no more than RMB 10.9 billion.
• On 2024-09-30, a subsidiary proposed establishing a RMB 1.6 billion dual-carbon industry fund with the National Green Development Fund and others. The related-party transaction was approved by the shareholders’ meeting on 2024-10-16.
• On 2024-11-06, the company proposed exchanging module capacity for equity in and liquid assets of U.S.-based FREYR as part of a U.S. business restructuring.
• On 2024-12-08, the company terminated plans to spin off and list its controlling subsidiary Trina Home.
• On 2024-12-30, an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting approved proposals relating to the 2025 comprehensive financing quota, guarantees and amendments to the articles of association.

4.13 Recent Contract Wins and Operating News (August–September 2026)

On 2026-09-11, the company won a photovoltaic-module procurement project from Shaanxi Yisen Lvyuan Electric Power Co., Ltd., with a contract value of RMB 35.3975 million, according to Qichacha/Tongbi Finance. On 2026-09-10, it won the 2026 annual PV-module framework agreement of Sinopec’s Materials and Equipment Department (International Company), with a contract value of approximately RMB 560 million (RMB 560,066,666.67). On 2026-09-10, the company was newly classified under the smart-logistics concept by Tonghuashun. On 2026-09-11, it obtained a utility-model patent for solar cells and modules. Since the beginning of 2026, it has received 349 new patent authorizations, down 18.08% year on year. R&D spending in 2026H1 was RMB 1.021 billion, up 13.44%. Note: Both contract values were compiled from third-party data such as Tianyancha and Securities Star and were not cross-verified against formal listed-company announcements. They are single-source figures and should be used cautiously.

4.14 Data Timing and Uncertainty

Multiple sources indicate that information retrieval had advanced to September 2026, including a Securities Star weekly review dated 2026-09-12, a Huaxi Securities page updated on 2026-08-22 and a Shanghai Securities News announcement dated 2026-09-02. Accordingly, these research notes use the period around 2026-09-12 as the observation window; earlier historical events are marked with their specific dates. If the report’s reference date differs, the data should be adjusted accordingly. In addition, the motivation for the actual controller’s share disposal, namely the alleged maturity in September 2026 of RMB 4.569 billion in trust debt, is based only on media analysis; the company’s announcement described the disposal as being for its own funding needs. The reduction in the 2026H1 attributable loss depended heavily on non-recurring gains, including more than RMB 1.2 billion from the disposal of T1 Energy equity and fair-value-change gains. Net profit excluding non-recurring items remained a loss of RMB 2.780–2.960 billion. The core business has not substantively returned to profitability. This was a media calculation, including by Jiemian News, and should be checked against the formal interim-report notes. The outstanding external guarantee balance of RMB 44.851 billion, equivalent to 209.02% of net assets, came from an official announcement and is considered reliable, but highlights leverage risk.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the September 11, 2026 close, Trina Solar (688599.SH) stood at RMB 10.75, down 2.89% for the day, with an intraday low of RMB 10.54 marking a new recent low. The share price has continued to decline from approximately RMB 14.4 in mid-August, retreating more than 25% in one month. It remains in a clear downward channel, below all short-term moving averages (MA5 approximately RMB 11.18, MA10 approximately RMB 11.40 and MA20 approximately RMB 12.10), and has approached the lower Bollinger Band, estimated at approximately RMB 10.55. Eastmoney’s Qian Gu Qian Ping on 2026-09-11 explicitly indicated that MACD, RSI and BOLL had no clear signals, while institutional participation of 27.19% represented moderate control. Investing.com’s oversold readings, including RSI of 34.72 and STOCHRSI of 2.98, were based on the outdated August 19 data and can only be used as directional references. On the fund-flow side, main funds recorded a net outflow of RMB 23.3771 million on September 11 and RMB 23.2248 million on September 10, with a combined weekly net outflow of RMB 55.4362 million; retail funds continued to record net inflows. Turnover was only 1.77%, compared with 1.02% on September 10 and 0.92% on September 9. Daily turnover was broadly RMB 240–440 million, indicating relatively light trading. Margin-financing balance was RMB 1.243 billion, or 4.94% of freely tradable market capitalization, below the 30th percentile of the past year. The shareholder count was 64,431 as of 2026-06-30, down 1,363 from the prior period, suggesting slight concentration of holdings, although the data lag by more than one quarter. The company remains loss-making, with 2026 interim attributable net profit of negative RMB 269.9 million and a 90.75% year-on-year narrowing of the loss, so PE has no practical meaning. Overall, the share price is near the lower end of its downward channel. Technical indicators remain weak, but the stock is approaching an oversold area; confirmation of direction still depends on volume and key price levels.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice or any instruction to buy or sell. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weighting, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weighting, approximately 60%, subjective judgment): The share price trades repeatedly within RMB 10.5–11.2. On the one hand, the close is near the lower Bollinger Band and several oversold indicators are low, limiting the potential for another sharp sell-off. On the other hand, consecutive net outflows from main funds and weak volume, with turnover of 1.77% and turnover of RMB 442 million, provide little upward impetus. Trigger conditions: no major unexpected news for the photovoltaic-equipment sector and turnover remaining within the recent normal range of RMB 240–440 million.
• Weak downward continuation (medium weighting, subjective judgment): If the first support zone of RMB 10.5–10.6 is decisively broken, with the close remaining below it for consecutive sessions and turnover not shrinking materially, the downward channel would continue. The next observation range would be approximately RMB 10.0–10.2, with a possibility of setting a new recent low below the September 11 intraday low of RMB 10.54. Trigger conditions: continued net outflows from main funds, broader weakness in the photovoltaic-equipment sector or a bearish market environment.
• Stronger rebound (low weighting, subjective judgment): If a volume-backed recovery develops and the price stabilizes above the short-term resistance area of RMB 11.2–11.4, the stock may challenge the MA20 area around RMB 12.1. Trigger conditions: a sustained and significant increase in daily turnover, a clear catalyst for the PV sector or industry, or a shift in main-fund flows from net outflows to net inflows.

③ Fund-Flow and Liquidity Background

Low turnover and daily turnover broadly in the RMB 240–440 million range—turnover of 1.77% and RMB 442 million on September 11, 1.02% on September 10 and 0.92% on September 9—indicate relatively light trading. Total shares and freely tradable shares were both 2.343 billion, with total freely tradable market capitalization of RMB 25.183 billion. On September 11, main funds recorded a net outflow of RMB 23.3771 million, representing 5.29% of turnover; speculative funds recorded a net outflow of RMB 14.9813 million, while retail funds recorded a net inflow of RMB 38.3584 million. On September 10, main funds recorded a net outflow of RMB 23.2248 million, or 8.78% of turnover. Over the latest five trading days, main funds recorded a cumulative net outflow; according to the weekly review, the stock fell 4.44% during the week and main funds recorded a combined net outflow of RMB 55.4362 million. The margin-financing balance was RMB 1.243 billion, or 4.94% of freely tradable market capitalization, below the 30th percentile of the past year. The margin-financing and securities-lending balance on September 10 was RMB 1.237 billion, or 4.77% of the free float, above the market average of 4.37%. In terms of ownership structure, the shareholder count was 64,431 as of 2026-06-30, down 1,363 from the prior period; as of 2026-05-29, it was 65,794, down 2,367 from the prior period, with the figure disclosed on 2026-08-07. This indicates slight concentration. However, the shareholder-count data lag by more than one quarter, and the structure may have changed during the intervening period. Verified details of the top ten tradable shareholders, including whether they hold positions through public funds, social-security funds or QFII, were not obtained. It is therefore impossible to assess the institutional ownership mix; only sector labels such as “institutional heavy holdings,” “QFII heavy holdings,” “MSCI China,” “Stock Connect” and “margin trading” were observed. In practical trading terms, with turnover below 2% and daily turnover of only several hundred million yuan, order-book matching is relatively thin, and large transactions may incur wider slippage costs.

Volume confirmation signal: If daily turnover remains materially above the recent normal range of RMB 240–440 million—for example, rising to more than RMB 600 million for consecutive sessions—it could be viewed as an observation signal for fund participation. Conversely, if the price declines while turnover contracts further, the pattern is more likely to be a low-volume decline.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Point one: Whether the short-term resistance zone of RMB 11.2–11.4, around MA5/MA10, can be recovered with volume, and whether the first support zone of RMB 10.5–10.6, around the September 11 low and the lower Bollinger Band, can hold. These are observation points, not trading instructions.
• Point two: The strong-support zone of RMB 10.0–10.2 is the key lower area in the scenario analysis. A decisive break would open room toward lower levels and a potential new 52-week low. The precise 52-week low has not been verified because of conflicting sources and should be checked against the latest market data.
• Point three: Volume confirmation—whether daily turnover can remain materially above the recent normal range of RMB 240–440 million is a verifiable signal of whether funds are genuinely entering.
• Point four: Main-fund flows and the overall performance of the photovoltaic-equipment sector. Main funds have recently recorded consecutive net outflows, totaling RMB 55.4362 million for the week, so fund flows and sector news should continue to be monitored for their impact on the short-term trend.

The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. The MA/Bollinger figures are approximate values independently calculated from daily closes, while certain Investing.com indicators are based on outdated data from 2026-08-19. Short-term share-price performance will also be affected by news, fund flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited, and the analysis does not guarantee future performance or constitute investment advice. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Conditions

The PV industry is in a phase of overcapacity and policy-driven efforts to curb involution. In 2025, module prices first declined and then recovered, while rapid increases in upstream polysilicon and silver-paste prices squeezed midstream module producers. JinkoSolar, LONGi and JA Solar ranked among the top three in global module shipments, with Trina Solar in the first tier. Energy storage has become a second growth curve for PV companies. Competition is intensifying, although overseas energy-storage markets generally offer relatively higher gross margins.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Among the global Top 10 PV-module suppliers in 2025, JinkoSolar, LONGi and JA Solar ranked in the top three, while Trina Solar remained in the first tier, according to multiple industry media sources including NetEase, SOLARZOOM and ne21.
• Trina Solar shipped 70.47GW of modules in 2024, including power-plant/system products; module sales were 64.48GW, up 18.31% year on year. In 2025, module shipments exceeded 67GW; third-party databm reported 67.88GW, down 3.68% year on year. Externally sold modules totaled approximately 63.84GW, with N-type modules accounting for 95.8%.
• Cumulative shipments of 210 modules exceeded 236GW in 2025, ranking first globally, and surpassed 260GW in 2026H1. Cumulative global energy-storage shipments exceeded 25GWh.
• Competition in energy storage has intensified. Trina Storage shipped more than 8GWh in 2025; databm reported 8.6GWh, approximately doubling year on year, with overseas shipments accounting for more than 60%. Energy-storage shipments exceeded 5GWh in 2026H1, up 188% year on year.
• In terms of technology, the company is pursuing a dual-engine strategy of TOPCon 3.0 and THBC. In 2026H1, tandem modules achieved peak power of 907W and full-area efficiency of 29.2%. THBC cell efficiency reached 28.00% in April 2026, setting a new crystalline-silicon cell record. The company has set 41 world records for cell/module performance and has filed 689 perovskite patent applications, which it says ranks first globally.
• Regarding policy, anti-involution measures in the second half of 2025 supported module price increases, but upstream polysilicon and silver-paste prices increased faster, and module margins remained under pressure.

6.3 Major Competitors

Trina Solar ranks among the global leaders in module shipments, and cumulative shipments of 210 modules rank first globally. However, 2025 module shipments declined year on year to more than 67GW, or 67.88GW according to databm, down 3.68%, while energy-storage shipments doubled to more than 8GWh. In 2026H1, energy-storage shipments rose 188% year on year, accelerating the realization of the second growth curve. Compared with module leaders such as JinkoSolar, LONGi and JA Solar, Trina Solar’s differentiation lies in the coordination between large-format 210 modules and integrated energy-storage systems, as well as the deep penetration of its distributed channels through Trina Home. The research notes do not provide specific financial or capacity data for competitors, so a detailed quantitative comparison is not possible. Peer annual-report data should be added before a comprehensive comparison is conducted.

7. Risk Factors

• Risk that the profitability recovery of the module business falls short of expectations: The gross margin of photovoltaic products was -1.42% in 2025 and recovered to 1.27% in 2026H1, but remained significantly below the margins of energy storage and digital energy. If module price competition continues, or if prices of polysilicon, silver paste and other raw materials rise faster than module prices, the photovoltaic-products business could return to losses.
• Risk that loss reduction lacks quality: Attributable net profit in 2026H1 was a loss of RMB 2.70 billion, while attributable net profit excluding non-recurring items was a loss of RMB 2.890 billion. Approximately RMB 2.620 billion of the improvement came from gains on the disposal of T1 Energy equity and fair-value changes. Without similar non-recurring gains, the profitability of the core business remains insufficiently validated.
• Risk of volatility in energy-storage growth and profitability: Energy-storage revenue increased 92.3% year on year in 2026H1, shipments increased 188% and gross margin reached 21.00%, but competition in the energy-storage industry is also intensifying. If overseas orders, product prices or project deliveries fall short of expectations, rapid growth could be accompanied by declining margins and increased working-capital requirements in receivables, inventory and other items.
• High leverage and guarantee risk: As of the September 2026 announcement date, outstanding external guarantees totaled RMB 44.851 billion, equivalent to 209.02% of the most recently audited net assets, including RMB 42.933 billion of guarantees to consolidated subsidiaries. With the company still loss-making and its debt-to-asset ratio at 77.7%, deterioration in subsidiary operations or financing conditions could increase repayment and guarantee risks.
• Potential dilution from convertible bonds: Tian 23 Convertible Bonds had an issuance size of RMB 8.865 billion and an initial conversion price of RMB 69.69 per share. The company announced in September 2026 that the bonds were expected to meet the conditions for a conversion-price adjustment. If the price is subsequently reduced and conversion occurs, share-capital expansion and EPS dilution may result. The actual impact will depend on the subsequent board resolution and conversion activity.
• Actual-controller share transfer and market-confidence risk: Gao Jifan and his concert parties recently transferred 36.30 million shares, representing 1.55% of total shares, at RMB 12.59 per share. Upon completion, their combined stake declined from 32.59% to 31.04%. Although the company stated that control would not be affected, the actual controller’s first direct disposal and media reports regarding his personal debt may increase market attention to shareholder stability and funding arrangements.
• Share-price trend and liquidity risk: As of the September 11, 2026 close, the share price of RMB 10.75 had retreated more than 25% in one month, remained below short-term moving averages and faced consecutive main-fund outflows. Recent turnover was approximately 1.77%, with turnover of approximately RMB 240–440 million. If volume expands during a decline, the downward channel may continue, while large trades may face greater price-impact costs.
• Earnings-forecast and valuation-volatility risk: Institutional forecasts for 2026 attributable net profit range from a loss of RMB 1.643 billion to a profit of RMB 3.553 billion, a difference of more than RMB 5 billion. The company remains loss-making, so PE has little practical reference value. If recovery earnings in 2027 fall short of expectations, valuation frameworks based on future earnings or PB may be subject to repricing.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company’s medium-term growth thesis is mainly driven by energy-storage expansion, growth in digital-energy services, a higher overseas revenue contribution and continued advances in high-efficiency cells and modules. Energy-storage revenue and shipments continue to grow rapidly, with gross margins significantly above those of the module business. The continued expansion of distributed channels and residential power-plant O&M should also create synergies between system sales and subsequent services. If energy storage, digital energy and overseas operations continue to account for a larger share of revenue, while module gross margins remain positive, the company’s earnings mix should gradually improve.

However, the current earnings recovery remains subject to validation. The 2026H1 loss excluding non-recurring items was broadly similar to that of the prior-year period. Although the company recorded attributable net profit of RMB 13 million in 2026Q2, net profit excluding non-recurring items remained a loss of RMB 1.423 billion. Sell-side forecasts for 2026 attributable net profit vary widely, from a loss of RMB 1.643 billion to a profit of RMB 3.553 billion, indicating substantial uncertainty regarding module-margin recovery, energy-storage expansion and the impact of non-recurring gains. Investors should focus on excluding-non-recurring-items profit, photovoltaic-product gross margin, energy-storage revenue and shipments, overseas profitability and the sustainability of operating cash flow.

Conventional PE is not appropriate while the company remains loss-making. The market is currently more focused on recovery earnings in 2027 and PB. However, these earnings forecasts and target valuations are sell-side views, and institutional estimates differ substantially. At the same time, the share price remains in a clear downward channel. The actual controller’s recent inquiry-based share transfer, the potential downward adjustment of the Tian 23 Convertible Bond conversion price and the high outstanding guarantee balance may increase market attention to ownership, leverage and funding conditions.

Data Sources

• 688599 Trina Solar
• Trina Solar (688599) Operating Analysis_Individual Stock Quotes_Tonghuashun Finance
• Trina Solar (688599.SH)
• Trina Solar (sh688599)
• Trina Solar Listed-Company Information
• Trina Solar (688599.SH) Operating Analysis—PC_HSF10 Materials—Principal Activities
• Trina Solar (688599)_Company Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Chart_News_Research_Financials_FinScope
• Trina Solar (688599)—Company Profile
• What Does Trina Solar (688599) Do?
• Trina Solar Co., Ltd.—Trina Solar Co., Ltd.
• Trina Solar (688599) 2026 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis
• Company In-Depth Report: Strong Companies Emerge from the Storm; Module Leader Reliably Navigates the Cycle
• Trina Solar (688599): Strong Companies Emerge from the Storm; Module Leader Reliably Navigates the Cycle_9F Investment
• Securities Daily Online—Trina Solar 2024 Annual Report Summary
• Trina Solar (688599)_Company Announcements—2025 Tracking Rating Report for Convertible Bonds
• Chinese Listed-Company Operating Analysis Table—Trina Solar—December 31, 2025
• Trina Solar (688599)_Operating Summary_China Financial Information
• Trina Solar Co., Ltd.—Listed Company Engaged in Crystalline-Silicon Solar Production
• Trina Solar 2026 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis—Securities Star
• Trina Solar: Cumulative 210-Module Shipments Remain No. 1; Global Supply-Chain Allocation Continues to Improve_9F Investment
• Trina Solar: 2025 Audit Report—Securities Star
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual Report—HIBOR Research
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual Report_9F Investment
• Shanghai/Shenzhen Company Announcement Titles—Trina Solar 2025 Annual Report Summary
• Akcome—Trina Solar | 4.23 | 6.16
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual Report_9F Investment—C
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual Report_9F Investment—ROE and Profitability Data
• Trina Solar (688599.SH) 2025 Net Profit Loss of RMB 7.031 Billion, Loss Widens Year on Year
• Trina Solar—Risk Management
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual Report Summary PDF—Three Sages Report
• DBM Commentary: Bright Spots and Hidden Weaknesses—A Full Review of Trina Solar in 2025
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual Report and 2026 First-Quarter Review
• Energy-Storage Major Ships More Than 8GWh for the Full Year
• Trina Solar: 2025 Results Released; Energy Storage and Space PV Break New Ground—TrendForce
• Trina Solar: 2025 Results Released; Energy Storage and Space PV Break New Ground—EnergyTrend
• Trina Solar (688599): Module Business Strengthens Fundamentals; Energy Storage Delivered as Expected
• Chinese Stock Investor-Relations Interactive Q&A—Trina Solar—December 1, 2025
• 2025 Interim Review: Module Shipments Increased Sequentially; Energy Storage Became Profitable
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual and 2026 First-Quarter Review
• JinkoSolar, LONGi and JA Solar Rank Top Three; 2025 Global PV-Module Top 10
• JinkoSolar, LONGi and JA Solar Rank Top Three; 2025 Global PV-Module Top 10
• JinkoSolar, LONGi, Trina Solar, JA Solar and Tongwei—2025 Global Module Shipment Rankings
• 2025 Top 10 PV-Module Shipments by Listed Chinese Companies
• Global Module Shipment Rankings Announced: LONGi and JinkoSolar Tied
• Global Module Shipment Rankings Announced: LONGi and JinkoSolar Tied
• JinkoSolar, LONGi and JA Solar Rank Top Three; 2025 Global PV-Module Top 10
• 2025 Top 10 Chinese PV-Module Shipments
• LONGi and JinkoSolar First; Trina Solar and JA Solar Third
• LONGi and JinkoSolar First; Trina Solar and JA Solar Third
• Trina Solar (688599) Main-Fund Net Selling of RMB 23.2248 Million on September 10
• Trina Solar Weekly Review: Down 4.44%; Main Funds Net Outflow of RMB 55.4362 Million
• Trina Solar Listed on the STAR Market at an Issue Price of RMB 8.16 per Share
• Trina Solar Listed Today at an Issue Price of RMB 8.16 per Share
• 688599 | Trina Solar Co. Ltd. A Annual Income Statement | MarketWatch
• Trina Solar Co Income Statement—Investing.com
• Trina Solar (688599) Financial Summary—Investing.com
• Research Recommendation: Trina Solar—Earnings Under Pressure, Energy Storage Performs Well
• 688599.SS—Stock Price and Latest News
• SS:688599 Financials | Trina Solar Co Ltd—Investing.com
• Trina Solar—Company Announcement
• National Business Daily—Company News
• Trina Solar (688599) Financial Statements
• Trina Solar Will Lose RMB 3.455 Billion in 2024
• Trina Solar 2026H1 Net Loss Excluding Non-Recurring Items of RMB 2.890 Billion
• Trina Solar: 2026H1 Net Loss Narrowed by RMB 2.648 Billion
• Trina Solar: 2026H1 Net Loss Narrowed by RMB 2.648 Billion
• Trina Solar: Interim Net Loss of RMB 2.7 Billion, Loss Narrowed Significantly
• Trina Solar Discloses 2026 Interim Report
• Trina Solar Discloses 2026 Interim Report
• Trina Solar’s H1 Attributable Loss Narrowed by More Than 90%
• Trina Solar: Interim Net Loss of RMB 2.7 Billion
• Trina Solar’s H1 Attributable Loss Narrowed by More Than 90%
• Trina Solar 2026 Interim Results Review
• Trina Solar: 2025 PV Profitability Under Pressure; Energy-Storage Shipments Double
• Trina Solar 2025 Net Loss of RMB 7.031 Billion
• Trina Solar: 2025 Revenue of RMB 66.975 Billion
• Trina Solar 2025 Annual and 2026 First-Quarter Review
• Trina Solar 2025 Net Loss of RMB 7.031 Billion
• Trina Solar 2025 Net Loss of RMB 7.031 Billion
• Trina Solar (688599.SH) 2025 Net Loss of RMB 7.031 Billion
• Trina Solar 2025 Revenue Down 16.61%; Loss Widens to RMB 7 Billion
• Trina Solar 2025 Net Loss of RMB 7.031 Billion
• Trina Solar: Q2 2026 Turned Profitable
• Trina Solar: 2026 Target to Turn Profitable; Forward-Looking Space-PV Layout
• Research Report Metrics—Securities Star
• Institutional Ratings—Guojin Securities Gives Trina Solar a Buy Rating
• Trina Solar: PV Core Business Gradually Recovers; Energy Storage and New Scenarios Advance
• Trina Solar Q2 Turns Profitable; PV-Storage Synergy Drives Results
• Trina Solar: Overseas Energy Storage Accelerates; Perovskite Tandem R&D
• Institutional Ratings—Guotai Haitong Securities Rates Trina Solar Outperform
• Trina Solar: Module Price Increases and Energy-Storage Expansion
• Trina Solar: Module Business Strengthens Fundamentals; Energy Storage Delivered as Expected
• Trina Solar Company Announcements
• Trina Solar Terminates 2023 Private A-Share Offering
• Trina Solar
• Trina Solar (688599)—F10 Materials—Compass Market Data
• Trina Solar
• Trina Solar (688599.SH): Shenzhen Hongyu Disposes of 1.8146 Million Shares
• Trina Solar Announcement on Tian 23 Convertible Bonds
• Trina Solar Shareholder Proposes Disposal of No More Than 0.5%
• Trina Solar Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting Resolution
• Industrial Securities to Conduct STAR Market Market-Making in Trina Solar
• Trina Solar (688599): Tian 23 Convertible Bonds Expected to Meet Conversion-Price Adjustment Conditions
• Trina Solar Announcement on Guarantee Progress
• Trina Solar Announcement on Guarantee Progress
• Trina Solar (688599) Announcements
• Trina Solar Stock News
• Trina Solar Granted Utility-Model Patent
• Trina Solar Added to Smart Logistics Concept
• Trina Solar Wins Sinopec 2026 PV-Module Framework Agreement
• Trina Solar Q2 Turns Profitable; Gao Jifan Sells Nearly RMB 500 Million
• Trina Solar: Actual Controller’s Personal Debt Unrelated to Listed Company
• Trina Solar Voluntary Disclosure of 2026 Interim Earnings Forecast
• Trina Solar 2026 Interim Earnings Forecast Announcement
• Trina Solar
• Trina Solar Expects 2026H1 Loss of RMB 1.8–3.6 Billion
• Trina Solar 2026 Interim Earnings Forecast Summary
• Trina Solar Expects 2026H1 Loss of RMB 1.8–3.6 Billion
• Trina Solar Expects 2026H1 Attributable Loss of RMB 1.8–3.6 Billion
• Trina Solar 2026 Interim Earnings Forecast Summary
• Trina Solar’s U.S. Stock Gains Exceed RMB 1 Billion While Module Business Remains Loss-Making
• Trina Solar: H1 Expected Loss of RMB 1.8–3.6 Billion
• Trina Solar Announcement on Repurchase Completion
• Trina Solar Announcement on Repurchase Completion
• China Securities Journal—Trina Solar Announcement on Repurchase Completion
• Trina Solar Announcement on Repurchase Completion
• RMB 1 Billion! Trina Solar Repurchase Plan Completed
• Trina Solar Completes Repurchase of 2.31% of Shares
• Trina Solar (688599.SH) Repurchases 2.31% of Shares
• Trina Solar Announcement on Repurchase Completion
• Trina Solar Repurchases 43.6032 Million Shares
• Trina Solar Latest Price and Quotes—Eastmoney
• Dynamic Price Chart
• Trina Solar (688599) Stock Calendar
• e Company—Listed-Company Information Platform
• Trina Solar (sh688599) Price Trend
• 688599: Trina Solar—MSN Finance
• Trina Solar (sh688599) Stock Price and Quotes—Sina Finance
• Caixin Market Center
• Trina Solar (688599) Stock Price and Technical Analysis—Investing.com
• Trina Solar Main-Fund Net Selling on September 10
• Trina Solar Fund Flows—Eastmoney
• Trina Solar Main-Fund Net Selling on September 11
• Trina Solar Qian Gu Qian Ping—Eastmoney
• Trina Solar Down 2.04%, Turnover RMB 189 Million
• Investor Forum Post
• Trina Solar (688599.SH)
• Investor Forum Post
• Investor Forum Post
• Superwin Data Ranking
• Trina Solar Technical Analysis and Forecast—Investing.com
• Trina Solar Interactive Chart—Investing.com
• Trina Solar Advanced Chart—Investing.com
• Trina Solar (688599.SH)
• Trina Solar (688599)—finfab.pro
• Trina Solar Stock Data
• Trina Solar Technical Analysis—MarketScreener
• Trina Solar Five-Star Rating
• Trina Solar Stock Price and Quotes—Sina Finance
• Trina Solar (SH:688599)
• Trina Solar (SH:688599)
• Trina Solar (SH688599) Price and Financial Data
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
• Trina Solar 688599.SH—HSTong
• Trina Solar Historical Data—Investing.com
• Download 688599 Data—MarketWatch
• Trina Solar 688599:SHH Summary—FT

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. The information is current through the September 11, 2026 close, which was the latest trading-day data for the stock and was consistently confirmed by multiple sources. Cached/stale snapshots of RMB 16.18, RMB 12.09, RMB 12.07 and RMB 14.47 from different dates have been excluded from the research notes. Timing differences may exist. Specific data should be checked against formal company announcements and authoritative market-data terminals. This report is for information and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.