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Latest market data
| Close | 43.87 (+4.03% on the day; +1.6% over 5 sessions; -2.73% over 20 sessions) |
|---|---|
| Market cap | CNY 22.14 billion |
| P/E (TTM) | 24.3x (20th percentile over 5 years) |
| P/B (MRQ) | 2.33x (32th percentile over 5 years) |
| P/S (TTM) | 0.83x (20th percentile over 5 years) |
| 52-week range | 40 (2026-09-28) – 101.98 (2026-01-26) |
| Moving averages | MA5 42.37 / MA10 43.36 / MA20 43.73 / MA60 45.52 |
| MACD (12,26,9) | DIF -0.957, DEA -0.941, histogram -0.033 |
| RSI | RSI6 55.8 / RSI14 48.7 |
| Bollinger bands (20,2) | Upper 46.71 / middle 43.73 / lower 40.75 |
| Volume | 1.77x the 20-day average |
| One-week range (about 68% coverage) | 41.07 – 46.29 (-6.4% ~ +5.5%) |
| One-week range (about 95% coverage) | 38.72 – 49.68 (-11.7% ~ +13.2%) |
As of the 2026-09-30 close; calculated from daily price data (adjusted prices) and refreshed automatically each trading day. The one-week range reflects historical volatility only and is not a forecast. The report below was written on 2026-09-14; its prices and short-term scenarios reflect data at that time.
XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) Co., Ltd. (688778)
Equity Research Report | Industry: Lithium Battery Cathode Materials | Report Date: September 14, 2026 | As of the September 11, 2026 close (most recent trading day); market data sourced from the SSE listed-company page, Securities Times, Sina Finance, Eastmoney and other sources, with cross-source verification showing consistency
This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.
1. Executive Summary
As of the September 11, 2026 close, XTC New Energy Materials was quoted at RMB 42.05, down 2.80% on the day. The intraday low of RMB 41.03 marked a new 52-week low. The stock had retreated approximately 59%–60% from its 52-week high of approximately RMB 102.3–102.6, was down approximately 43.18% year to date and approximately 48% over the past year. The share price was below the MA5 (RMB 43.76), MA10 (RMB 44.69) and MA20 (RMB 45.82), with the short-term moving averages in a bearish configuration. It was also materially below the 50-day (RMB 47.20), 90-day (RMB 57.86) and 250-day (RMB 70.26) moving averages. MACD was negative (-0.60), with DIF at -1.19, indicating a technical phase of continued decline and bottom-finding. The stock’s declines over 5 and 10 trading days (-8.84% and -11.57%, respectively) were materially greater than those of the battery sector over the same periods (-4.09% and -7.16%). By contrast, the company’s fundamentals remained on a growth trajectory: 2026H1 revenue was RMB 14.488 billion, up 91.09% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 491 million, up 46.62%; and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 488 million, up 67.90%.
Growth was primarily volume-driven. In 2026H1, lithium cobalt oxide shipments reached 29,200 tonnes, up 1.46% year on year, growing against an industry-wide decline of 13.9%; products with voltage ratings of 4.5V or above accounted for 66.42%. Shipments of cathode materials for power batteries reached 37,300 tonnes, up 17.08%. In 2025, full-year lithium cobalt oxide shipments reached 65,300 tonnes, up 41.31%, while power-battery cathode shipments reached 77,400 tonnes, up 47.83%. Full-year revenue was RMB 19.880 billion, up 46.70%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 755 million, up 41.82%. The company is a global leader in lithium cobalt oxide and remained the world’s largest shipper in 2025. It is also developing ternary materials, hydrothermal-process lithium iron phosphate, hydrogen-energy materials (hydrogen-storage alloys), lithium-compensation materials (already in mass production), sodium-ion cathode materials (one polyanionic material has completed pilot testing), lithium sulfide, a key solid-state battery material (10-tonne production line), and NL new-structure cathode materials.
However, profitability quality and financial leverage have shown signs of deterioration. In 2026H1, gross margin was 8.29%, down 2.08 percentage points year on year; net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 283 million, down 55.84%; and the debt-to-assets ratio was 61.35%, up 19.86 percentage points year on year. Total assets at the end of 2025 were RMB 21.931 billion, up 46.36% from the previous year-end. The company’s gross margin has remained around 9% over the long term, with lithium cobalt oxide gross margin fluctuating between 6.69% and 10.95% during 2021–2025. It occupies the midstream processing segment of the lithium-battery industry’s “smile curve.” Upstream prepayments were only RMB 18.23 million as of June 30, 2024, indicating virtually no ability to secure volumes or negotiate prices for nickel, cobalt and lithium. As of December 31, 2025, the five largest customers accounted for 78.34% of revenue and the largest customer accounted for 38.28%; the five largest suppliers accounted for 60.89% of total purchases and the largest supplier accounted for 30.44%. These figures are based solely on Tonghuashun F10 data and have not been cross-checked against the original annual report.
In terms of valuation, static PE based on 2025 net profit was approximately 28.12x, PE (TTM) approximately 23.30x, forward PE approximately 21.60x and PB approximately 2.23x. The consensus forecast of 14 institutions calls for 2026E net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.069 billion and EPS of RMB 2.109, implying forward PE of approximately 19.8x; 2027E net profit of RMB 1.316 billion and EPS of RMB 2.601, implying approximately 16.1x; and 2028E net profit of RMB 1.561 billion and EPS of RMB 3.082, implying approximately 13.6x. These are broker forecasts, not company disclosures. Over the past six months, 15 institutions issued ratings, including 12 Buy and 3 Outperform/Accumulate ratings; the overall rating was Buy. Recent target prices ranged from RMB 59.67 to RMB 97.92, including RMB 81.60 from Huatai, RMB 67.00 from CICC, RMB 67.11 from China Renaissance and RMB 59.67 from Guotai Haitong. However, some reports were published when the share price was at a high level and therefore represent historical target prices.
2. Company Overview
2.1 Basic Information
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Full legal name | Xiamen XTC New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. (XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) Co., Ltd.) |
| Stock code | 688778.SH |
| Listing venue | STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (listed on August 5, 2021; IPO price RMB 24 per share) |
| Registered/office address | No. 300-1, Kejing She, Xiamen Area, China (Fujian) Pilot Free Trade Zone |
| Registration number | 91350200MA2XWQAT7G |
| Establishment and corporate history | Formerly the battery-materials division of Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., which began R&D and production of lithium-battery cathode materials in 2004; established as an independent company on December 20, 2016; completed corporatization in April 2020; listed on the STAR Market on August 5, 2021. It was the fifth company in China and the first in Fujian Province to complete an A-share spin-off listing |
| Controlling shareholder | Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., holding 50.28% (as of June 30, 2026) |
| Ultimate controller | State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the People’s Government of Fujian Province |
| Total shares outstanding | 504,691,083 shares (based on the share count disclosed in the semiannual report as of August 20, 2026) |
| Legal representative/Chairman | Yang Jinhong |
| Board secretary | Chen Kangsheng |
| Industry classification | CSRC industry: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (C38). The company identifies its sub-industries as electronic specialty-material manufacturing (C3985) and lithium batteries. Note: certain fields on the CFi.cn company-profile page, such as the list of independent directors, are outdated; its Shenwan classification is chemicals, which differs from the company’s own classification. The latest announcements should prevail |
| Total employees | 3,344 (source: CFi.cn company profile; the page does not specify the statistical date; single-source figure not cross-verified) |
2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio
- Lithium cobalt oxide, primarily high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide: used in mid- to high-end smartphones, notebooks, tablets, small drones, e-cigarettes, TWS earphones and other 3C applications. The company is a global leader in lithium cobalt oxide and remained the world’s largest shipper in 2025
- Ternary materials, including high-voltage, high-power and high-nickel NCM: used in hybrids, range-extended vehicles and mid- to high-end electric vehicles, with expansion into low-altitude-economy, robotics and other emerging applications
- Lithium iron phosphate: differentiated hydrothermal-process products focused on low-temperature performance and high charge/discharge rates, for power and energy-storage applications
- Hydrogen-energy materials, including hydrogen-storage alloys and solid-state hydrogen storage: the company states that its hydrogen-storage alloy market share has ranked first in China for 16 consecutive years (source: Huaxi Securities F10; single-source figure not cross-verified)
- Other advanced materials: lithium-compensation materials, already in mass production; sodium-ion cathode materials, with one polyanionic material completing pilot testing; lithium sulfide, a key solid-state battery material, with a 10-tonne production line; and NL new-structure cathode materials
2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost/Profit Structure
The company operates in the lithium-battery cathode-material segment. Its upstream suppliers provide nickel, cobalt, lithium and related compounds, while its downstream customers are 3C and power-battery manufacturers. The following content is compiled from disclosures in the research memorandum concerning the company’s position in the value chain and its cost/profit structure.
- Core purchased inputs comprise nickel, cobalt and lithium metals and related compounds. The company’s annual reports explicitly identify nickel, cobalt and lithium as major raw materials, with direct-material costs representing the main component of operating costs. Ternary materials require externally sourced or internally produced ternary precursors; lithium iron phosphate requires iron phosphate, lithium carbonate and other inputs
- Supplier concentration (December 31, 2025; source: gubit.cn/Tonghuashun F10 table of the five largest suppliers): purchases from the five largest suppliers totaled RMB 13.477 billion, or 60.89% of total purchases. Supplier 1 accounted for RMB 6.73841 billion, or 30.44%; supplier 2 RMB 2.15324 billion, or 9.73%; supplier 3 RMB 1.77450 billion, or 8.02%; supplier 4 RMB 1.49993 billion, or 6.78%; and supplier 5 RMB 1.31101 billion, or 5.92%. The largest supplier accounted for more than 30% of purchases, indicating relatively high single-supplier dependence. Note: the table does not disclose supplier names, so it cannot be verified whether it includes the related party Xiamen Tungsten. These data use the Tonghuashun F10 methodology and could not be cross-checked against the original annual report; the latest annual report’s major-supplier section should prevail
- Prepayments (June 30, 2024; source: the company’s 2024 interim report): closing prepayments were only RMB 18.23 million. The five largest prepaid counterparties were Siqiman (Shanghai) Chemical, 35.10%; State Grid Fujian Electric Power Ningde Power Supply Company, 23.86%; Shengtun Mining, 14.69%; State Grid Sichuan Electric Power, 8.05%; and Sichuan Xinshuntong Natural Gas, 2.78%, totaling 84.48%. The very small absolute amount of prepayments indicates that the company has essentially no ability to lock in upstream volumes through prepayments or to negotiate prices, and is closer to a price-taker for nickel, cobalt and lithium commodities
- Cost increases are primarily absorbed through downstream price pass-through rather than through the company’s extraction of excess gross profit. One major reason for the 78.90% year-on-year increase in lithium cobalt oxide revenue in 2025 was that cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo triggered downstream inventory building; higher raw-material prices then pushed up product selling prices (source: Securities Times)
- Upstream integration: in 2025, the company completed the acquisition of the relevant business assets of the Secondary Resources Manufacturing Department of Xiamen Tungsten’s Haicang branch and a 47% stake in Ganzhou Haopeng, established Circular Technology, and entered battery recycling and cascade utilization. This connects retired batteries, cascade utilization, resource recycling, precursors and battery materials across the value chain. It is also constructing a 40,000-tonne ternary-precursor project in Fuquan
- Historical supplier risk: during the IPO process, the listing committee questioned the reasonableness of purchases from Tianjin Yihua Technology, which had no employees enrolled in social insurance in 2017 but supplied RMB 365 million of products (source: IPO Daily/China Battery Alliance reprint, December 2020). This was a historical matter; no subsequent resolution was identified in this review
- Customer structure: 3C lithium-battery customers include ATL (Amperex Technology), Samsung SDI, LGC, Murata, BYD, Sunwoda and Zhuhai CosMX; power-lithium-battery customers include BYD, Panasonic, CATL, CALB, Gotion High-tech and EVE Energy
- Customer concentration (key data; source: gubit.cn/Tonghuashun F10 table of the five largest customers by revenue; December 31, 2025): sales to the five largest customers totaled RMB 15.574 billion, or 78.34% of revenue. Customer A accounted for RMB 7.60985 billion, or 38.28%; customer B RMB 3.54257 billion, or 17.82%; customer C RMB 1.57054 billion, or 7.90%; customer D RMB 1.54670 billion, or 7.78%; and customer E RMB 1.3044 billion, with the research memorandum truncated at this point and the percentage unavailable. The largest customer accounted for 38.28%, indicating relatively high concentration. These data use the Tonghuashun F10 methodology and could not be cross-checked against the original annual report; the latest annual report’s major-customer section should prevail
- Sales model: 100% direct sales (source: Eastmoney F10 analysis of business composition; consistent with gubit.cn/Tonghuashun F10 data and cross-verified)
- Overseas revenue accounted for approximately 9.62% in 2025. Overseas gross margin was 16.84%, significantly higher than the domestic gross margin of 9.03%, reflecting differences in overseas customer mix and pricing
- The research memorandum did not disclose the balance of accounts receivable, accounts-receivable turnover days or specific accounts-payable data, so working-capital utilization cannot be assessed on this basis. Available indirect evidence regarding bargaining power comprises closing prepayments of only RMB 18.23 million as of June 30, 2024, indicating virtually no upstream bargaining power through prepayment-based volume locking, and the five largest downstream customers accounting for 78.34% of revenue as of December 31, 2025, indicating high customer concentration. All of these are single-source data based on the Tonghuashun F10 methodology; the latest annual report’s receivables/payables sections should prevail
- Supplier concentration: on December 31, 2025, the five largest suppliers accounted for 60.89% of total purchases and the largest supplier for 30.44% (source: gubit.cn/Tonghuashun F10 table of the five largest suppliers; single-source data not cross-checked against the original annual report, and supplier names were not disclosed, so whether Xiamen Tungsten is included cannot be verified). Customer concentration: on December 31, 2025, the five largest customers generated RMB 15.574 billion of sales, or 78.34% of revenue, and the largest customer accounted for 38.28% (source: gubit.cn/Tonghuashun F10 table of the five largest customers; single-source data not cross-verified; customer E’s detailed amount and percentage were truncated in the research memorandum). These concentration data cover only 2025 and are not sourced from the original annual report; the latest annual report should prevail
| Year | Gross margin | Net margin | Brief description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Overall gross margin 9.45% (lithium cobalt oxide 8.20%; ternary materials 13.02%) | 2021 net margin not disclosed in the research memorandum | Revenue was approximately RMB 15.56 billion in 2021, including RMB 15.50 billion from the lithium-battery industry; lithium cobalt oxide accounted for 73.75% of revenue |
| 2022 | Company-wide gross margin not disclosed; lithium cobalt oxide 6.69%, ternary materials 10.21%, hydrogen energy 11.91%; domestic 8.17%, overseas 19.10% | 2022 net margin not disclosed in the research memorandum | Revenue reached a five-year high of RMB 28.596 billion, mainly because high prices for lithium carbonate and other raw materials pushed up product selling prices, an industry-wide phenomenon. Lithium cobalt oxide gross margin of 6.69% was the lowest among the years, reflecting weak cost pass-through when raw-material prices were high |
| 2023 | Company-wide gross margin not disclosed; lithium cobalt oxide 8.45%, ternary materials 6.86%, hydrogen energy 13.37%; domestic 6.66%, overseas 24.03% | 2023 net margin not disclosed in the research memorandum | Revenue declined sharply to RMB 17.136 billion as lithium-carbonate prices fell and product selling prices declined. Ternary-material gross margin fell to 6.86%, while domestic gross margin of 6.66% was the lowest among the years, reflecting cost-pass-through and inventory effects during a period of falling raw-material prices |
| 2024 | Company-wide gross margin not disclosed; lithium cobalt oxide 10.95%, ternary materials (including lithium iron phosphate and others) 7.88%, hydrogen energy 13.87%; domestic 8.40%, overseas 27.55% | 2024 net margin not disclosed in the research memorandum | Revenue was RMB 13.201 billion. Lithium cobalt oxide gross margin recovered from 8.45% to 10.95%, reflecting a more favorable product mix, including a higher share of high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide, and easing cost pressure |
| 2025 | Company-wide gross margin not disclosed; lithium cobalt oxide 9.90%, ternary materials (including lithium iron phosphate and others) 9.32%, hydrogen energy 14.56%; domestic 9.03%, overseas 16.84% | 2025 net margin not disclosed in the research memorandum | Full-year revenue was RMB 19.813 billion and shipments reached a record 142,700 tonnes. The 78.90% increase in lithium cobalt oxide revenue was mainly driven by higher volumes and prices as downstream inventory building caused by cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up raw-material and product prices. Ternary-material gross margin recovered from 7.88% to 9.32% |
3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis
3.1 Recent Operating Performance
| Reporting period | Revenue | YoY | Net profit attributable to shareholders | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026H1 | RMB 14.488 billion | +91.09% | RMB 491 million | +46.62% |
| 2026Q2 | RMB 7.903 billion | +73.36% | RMB 271 million | +27.78% (China Securities Intelligent Financial News/Securities Star methodology; Soochow Securities and Guotai Haitong report +42.4%–42.5%, indicating a discrepancy) |
| 2026Q1 | RMB 6.585 billion | +117.82% | RMB 220 million | +79.17% |
| 2025 full year | RMB 19.880 billion | +46.70% | RMB 755 million | +41.82% |
| 2024 full year | RMB 13.551 billion | -21.72% | RMB 532 million | -6.33% |
| 2023 full year | RMB 17.311 billion | -39.79% | RMB 527 million | -52.93% |
2026H1 refers to the semiannual report disclosed on the evening of August 19/August 20, 2026, and is unaudited; 2026Q1 was disclosed on April 22, 2026. Recurring net profit attributable to shareholders in 2026H1 was RMB 488 million, up 67.90%; diluted EPS was RMB 0.98, up 46.27%; gross margin was 8.29%, down 2.08 percentage points; weighted ROE was 5.22%; the debt-to-assets ratio was 61.35%; and net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 283 million, down 55.84%. 2026Q2 revenue increased 20.01% sequentially, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased 23.17%/23.09% sequentially. Q2 recurring net profit was approximately RMB 270 million, up 50.6%–60% year on year depending on the source. 2026Q1 recurring net profit increased approximately 95.5%. There is a discrepancy in 2025 revenue: the earnings flash report dated January 27, 2026 showed RMB 20.034 billion, while the final annual-report figure was RMB 19.880 billion, a difference of approximately RMB 150 million; the annual-report figure should prevail. 2025 recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 705 million, up 57.85%. 2025 lithium cobalt oxide shipments were 65,300 tonnes, up 41.31%, and power cathode shipments, including ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, were 77,400 tonnes, up 47.83%. Dividends: RMB 3.00 per 10 shares for 2025; a proposed interim dividend of RMB 3.00 per 10 shares for 2026, for total cash dividends of RMB 151 million, or 30.75% of 2026H1 net profit attributable to shareholders. The year-on-year growth rate of 2026Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders differs between +27.78% and +42.4%–42.5%; reverse calculation supports +27.78%, but the discrepancy may reflect retrospective adjustments. The company’s formal announcement should prevail.
Revenue increased 91.09% year on year in 2026H1, while net profit attributable to shareholders and recurring net profit increased 46.62% and 67.90%, respectively, with growth mainly driven by higher shipments of lithium cobalt oxide and power cathode materials. However, gross margin fell 2.08 percentage points to 8.29%, operating cash flow declined 55.84% and the debt-to-assets ratio increased 19.86 percentage points to 61.35%, warranting attention to earnings quality and financial leverage. On a quarterly basis, 2026Q2 revenue was RMB 7.903 billion, up 20.01% sequentially, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 271 million, up 23.17% sequentially. The year-on-year growth rate of Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders differs between +27.78% and +42.4%–42.5%; reverse calculation more strongly supports +27.78%, but the uncertainty should be noted. Historically, revenue and net profit declined continuously in 2023–2024, recovered in 2025 and continued to grow rapidly in the first half of 2026.
3.2 Earnings Forecasts
The following data represent the Eastmoney institutional forecast consensus (emweb ProfitForecast, extracted from institutional research reports; forecasts change with adjustments to the share count). They reflect the consensus of multiple brokerages, not a single institution, and are not company disclosures. Selected individual forecasts: on August 21, 2026, China Galaxy forecast EPS of 2.13/2.88/3.44 for 2026–2028, corresponding to net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.1/1.5/1.7 billion, revenue of RMB 35.3/42.6/47.2 billion and PE of 22/16/14x, with a Buy/Recommend rating; on August 21, 2026, CICC forecast EPS of 2.11/2.65/— and rated the stock Outperform; on August 21, 2026, Everbright Securities forecast EPS of 2.10/2.62/2.99 and net profit of RMB 1.059/1.323/1.509 billion, with PE of 22/18/15x and a Buy rating; on August 22, 2026, Guolian Minsheng forecast revenue of RMB 31.689/36.444/43.279 billion, up 59.4%/15.0%/18.8%, net profit of RMB 1.115/1.376/1.655 billion, up 47.7%/23.4%/20.3%, PE of 21/17/14x and a Recommend rating; on August 20, 2026, Soochow Securities forecast net profit of RMB 1.09/1.38/1.7 billion, up 45%/27%/24%, with PE of 22/17/14x and a Buy rating; on July 19, 2026, Guotai Haitong forecast EPS of 2.21/2.71/3.21 and rated the stock Accumulate; on September 10, 2026, Huatai Securities forecast net profit of RMB 1.081/1.282/1.416 billion, with PE of 21/17/16x and a Buy rating; on July 17, 2026, China Renaissance forecast EPS of 2.24/2.70/3.17 and rated the stock Buy; and on May 22, 2026, Changjiang Securities forecast EPS of 2.11/2.51/3.04 and rated the stock Buy. Individual institutional forecasts, such as Guolian Minsheng’s 2026E forecast of RMB 1.115 billion, differ by approximately 4% from the consensus average of RMB 1.069 billion.
| Year | Revenue | Net profit attributable to shareholders | Net profit growth | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | RMB 26.66 billion (average of 14 institutional forecasts) | RMB 1.069 billion (average of 14 forecasts; consensus range approximately RMB 1.06–1.19 billion) | Approximately +40%–+58% | RMB 2.109 (average of 14 forecasts) |
| 2027E | RMB 30.51 billion (average of 14 forecasts) | RMB 1.316 billion (average of 14 forecasts; consensus range approximately RMB 1.28–1.42 billion) | Data unavailable (no consensus growth rate was provided in the research memorandum) | RMB 2.601 (average of 14 forecasts) |
| 2028E | RMB 35.88 billion (average of 12 forecasts) | RMB 1.561 billion (average of 12 forecasts; consensus range approximately RMB 1.51–1.7 billion) | Data unavailable (no consensus growth rate was provided in the research memorandum) | RMB 3.082 (average of 12 forecasts) |
3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings
| Institution | Rating | Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities | Buy | 2026-08-20 | Target price RMB 81.60, implying 77.62% upside from the August 20 price of approximately RMB 45.9 |
| CICC | Outperform (Accumulate) | 2026-08-21 | Target price RMB 67.00; initially initiated coverage with a target price of RMB 85 on December 23, 2025, raised it to RMB 95 on June 29, 2026, and subsequently cut it from RMB 95 to RMB 67 in April |
| China Renaissance | Buy | 2026-07-17 | Target price RMB 67.11; EPS 2.24/2.70/3.17 |
| Guotai Haitong | Accumulate | 2026-07-19 | Target price RMB 59.67, corresponding to 27x 2026E PE; EPS 2.21/2.71/3.21, with target price and EPS estimates raised in June/July |
| China Galaxy | Buy/Recommend | 2026-08-21 | EPS 2.13/2.88/3.44, corresponding to net profit of RMB 1.1/1.5/1.7 billion and PE of 22/16/14x |
| Everbright Securities | Buy | 2026-08-21 | EPS 2.10/2.62/2.99, net profit of RMB 1.059/1.323/1.509 billion and PE of 22/18/15x |
| Guolian Minsheng | Recommend | 2026-08-22 | Revenue of RMB 31.689/36.444/43.279 billion, net profit of RMB 1.115/1.376/1.655 billion and PE of 21/17/14x |
| Soochow Securities | Buy | 2026-08-20 | Net profit of RMB 1.09/1.38/1.7 billion, up 45%/27%/24%, with PE of 22/17/14x |
| Huatai Securities | Buy | 2026-09-10 | Net profit of RMB 1.081/1.282/1.416 billion, with PE of 21/17/16x |
| Changjiang Securities | Buy | 2026-05-22 | EPS 2.11/2.51/3.04 |
| Nomura Orient | Data unavailable (rating not mentioned in the research memorandum) | 2026-04-24 | Historical target price of RMB 103.20. The share price fell substantially after publication, making this an outdated target with limited reference value |
As of the September 11, 2026 close, the share price was RMB 42.05, down 2.80% on the day, compared with the previous close of RMB 43.26, and traded in a range of RMB 41.03–43.35. Total and free-float market capitalization were approximately RMB 21.22 billion. The 52-week range was approximately RMB 42.05–102.58, with the current price representing a one-year low. The stock was down approximately 43.18% year to date and approximately 48% over the past year. Cross-source valuation multiples were as follows: static PE based on 2025 net profit of approximately 28.1x; PE (TTM) of approximately 23.3x; dynamic PE based on annualized H1 earnings of approximately 21.6x; and PB of approximately 2.23x based on net assets per share of RMB 18.84. The forward dividend yield was approximately 1.14%–1.36%. Based on the broker consensus forecast of 2026E net profit of RMB 1.069 billion, forward PE was approximately 19.8x; based on 2027E net profit of RMB 1.316 billion, approximately 16.1x; and based on 2028E net profit of RMB 1.561 billion, approximately 13.6x, calculated independently. Note: Eastmoney’s “key information” page showed total market capitalization of RMB 24.0 billion, dynamic PE of 24.43 and PB of 2.52, corresponding to a share price of approximately RMB 47.5, inconsistent with the September 11 quote. This was likely an outdated snapshot and has been excluded; RMB 42.05/RMB 21.2 billion is used here. Recent target prices ranged from RMB 59.67 to RMB 97.92, including RMB 81.60 from Huatai, RMB 67.00 from CICC, RMB 67.11 from China Renaissance and RMB 59.67 from Guotai Haitong; the average target was RMB 78.80 and the highest was RMB 97.92. However, most were published in July–August 2026, and some, such as CICC’s RMB 95 and Nomura’s RMB 103.20, were published when the share price was high. They should not be treated directly as the latest consensus targets. As of late August to September 2026, Eastmoney’s rating statistics showed 15 institutions over six months, including 12 Buy and 3 Accumulate ratings, with an overall Buy rating and a rating coefficient of 4.80; over one month, 7 institutions issued ratings, including 5 Buy and 2 Accumulate ratings, with a coefficient of 4.71. CFi.cn separately counted approximately 10 Buy, 2 Outperform, 2 Recommend, 2 Accumulate and 1 Strong Buy ratings in the past six months. Ratings have generally remained at Buy/Accumulate, with no downgrades identified. Uncertainties include the following: financial data are through 2026H1, disclosed on August 20, 2026; share price and valuation are as of the September 11, 2026 close; the 2026Q3 report had not yet been disclosed; 2025 revenue uses the annual-report figure of RMB 19.880 billion; the year-on-year growth rate of 2026Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders differs across sources; TTM and dynamic PE vary slightly by source methodology; and 2026–2028 forecasts are broker estimates rather than company disclosures.
4. Recent News and Announcements
4.1 2026 Semiannual Earnings Forecast
Announcement date: July 15, 2026, actually released on the evening of July 14. Net profit attributable to shareholders for January–June 2026 was expected to be approximately RMB 491.17 million (RMB 4,911.693 million), up 46.62% year on year; recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was expected to be approximately RMB 488 million, up 67.8% year on year, although another source reported +67.90%. The changes were attributed to higher product volumes and selling prices. Lithium cobalt oxide shipments were 29,200 tonnes, up 1.46%, and power-battery cathode shipments were 37,300 tonnes, up 17.08%. Based on the first-quarter report, 2026Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 220 million and Q2 net profit was approximately RMB 271 million, up 23.17% sequentially. Uncertainty: another third-party page reported a 145.62% change. Recalculation using that page’s data, RMB 49,116.93/RMB 33,498.61 - 1, or approximately +46.6%, matches 46.62%; therefore, 145.62% is considered an error in that single source and is not adopted.
4.2 January–February 2026 Operating Data Forecast
Announcement date: March 5, 2026. Revenue for January–February 2026 was expected to be RMB 2.702–3.546 billion, up 60%–110% year on year, mainly due to higher raw-material prices and increased product shipments.
4.3 2025 Earnings Flash Report
Announcement date: January 28, 2026; announcement number 2026-003; preliminary and unaudited. 2025 revenue was approximately RMB 20.034 billion, up 47.84%; total profit approximately RMB 858 million, up 55.77%; net profit attributable to shareholders approximately RMB 755 million, up 41.83%; and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders approximately RMB 705 million, up 57.85%. Total assets at year-end were RMB 21.931 billion, up 46.36% from the previous year-end, while equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 9.191 billion, up 3.41%. Full-year lithium cobalt oxide shipments were 65,300 tonnes, up 41.31%, and power-battery cathode shipments were 77,400 tonnes, up 47.83%. Retrospective adjustments reflected the completed acquisition of the relevant business assets of the Secondary Resources Manufacturing Department of Xiamen Tungsten’s Haicang branch and a 47% stake in Ganzhou Haopeng Technology, constituting a business combination under common control. In addition, capitalization of the capital reserve increased total shares from 420,771,001 to 504,691,083.
4.4 Provision for Asset Impairment in 2025
Announcement date: January 28, 2026; announcement number 2026-004. Total asset-impairment provisions for 2025 amounted to RMB 205.4708 million, comprising an asset-impairment loss of RMB 117.3235 million and a credit-impairment loss of RMB 88.1473 million. The figures were unaudited.
4.5 Implementation of the 2026 Interim Profit Distribution
Announcement number 2026-044. Approved by the board on August 18, 2026; implementation announcement released on September 9 and published on September 10. A cash dividend of RMB 3.00 per 10 shares, or RMB 0.30 per share, including tax, will be paid; no bonus shares or capitalization of reserves will be issued. The record date is September 15, 2026, and the ex-dividend and payment date is September 16, 2026. Based on 503,520,494 shares after deducting 1,170,589 shares held in the repurchase account from total shares of 504,691,083, total cash dividends will amount to RMB 151,056,148.20, including tax, representing 30.75% of 2026H1 net profit attributable to shareholders. A differentiated dividend distribution will be used. The reference ex-dividend price is the previous closing price minus RMB 0.299 per share.
4.6 2025 Annual Profit Distribution
A cash dividend of RMB 3.00 per 10 shares, or RMB 0.30 per share, was paid. The record date was June 25, 2026, and the ex-dividend date was June 26, 2026. The 2026 interim dividend was implemented under the “2026 Interim Dividend Arrangement” authorized by the annual general meeting on May 18, 2026 and did not require another submission to the general meeting.
4.7 Share Repurchase
The previous repurchase program has been completed, and no new 2026 repurchase plan was identified in this review. The plan was approved by the board on February 27, 2024 and first disclosed on February 28, 2024. It had a 12-month term, a proposed repurchase amount of RMB 30–50 million and a price cap of RMB 51.00 per share, later adjusted to RMB 50.30 after the 2023 annual profit distribution. The shares were intended for an employee share-ownership plan or equity incentives. Actual results: 1,170,589 shares were repurchased, representing 0.28% of total shares, at RMB 31.26–42.46 per share, with an average price of RMB 34.75 and total consideration of RMB 40,678,183.98. The implementation-results announcement was released on February 27, 2025, announcement number 2025-010. The 1,170,589 shares remain in the dedicated repurchase securities account and therefore did not participate in the current interim dividend distribution. If they are not used for incentives within three years, they will be cancelled. As of September 11, 2026, no new 2026 repurchase announcement had been identified. The search did not cover every 2026 announcement, so this conclusion is based on the results retrieved.
4.8 Shareholder Sell-Down Plan
In an announcement dated January 16, 2025, announcement number 2025-006, Ningbo Haicheng Lingzun Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership), a shareholder holding more than 5%, proposed to sell no more than 8,146,828 shares through block trades or centralized bidding, equivalent to no more than 1.9362% of total shares. Certain company directors and executives hold indirect interests through Ningbo Haicheng.
4.9 Top Ten Shareholders (Data as of June 30, 2026)
Xiamen Tungsten 50.28% (unchanged); Ningbo Haicheng Lingzun 5.64% (unchanged); Fujian Yekong Private Fund 5.47% (unchanged); Fujian Minluo Investment 2.51% (unchanged); Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company 2.12% (increased by 7.8882 million shares); Fujian Sangang Minguang 1.43% (unchanged); Tianqi Lithium 1.09% (unchanged); Invesco Great Wall Fund–China Life Growth Equity Portfolio 0.82% (new); Invesco Great Wall New Energy Industry 0.58% (new); and China Life Pension Insurance–Traditional Participating Insurance Product 0.57% (reduced by 1.2970 million shares). Source: F10 data.
4.10 Number of Shareholders
The number of shareholders was 23,200 as of June 30, 2026, up 30.27% from the previous period, compared with 17,800 as of March 31, 2026, down 8.08%.
4.11 Director Changes
Following the third meeting of the third board of directors on August 18, 2026, non-independent director Zhong Bingxian resigned as non-independent director and member of the Audit Committee for work-related reasons. Chen Xiaolin, currently director of the Secretary’s Office and securities representative at Xiamen Tungsten, was nominated as a candidate for non-independent director, announcement number 2026-042. Earlier, Hou Xiaoliang resigned as non-independent director and member of the Strategy and Sustainable Development Committee on October 30, 2025, announcement number 2025-065. On December 5, 2025, an extraordinary general meeting elected Xie Xiaotong as non-independent director, announcement number 2025-072. Baidu F10 showed no data on executive share purchases or sales as of September 2026.
4.12 Establishment of a Wholly Owned Subsidiary to Invest in a 50,000-Tonne High-Performance Battery-Materials Project
Announcement number 2025-067, approved by the board on November 18, 2025. The company proposed investing RMB 600 million to establish a wholly owned subsidiary, Xiamen Canghai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. (provisional name). Total project investment is RMB 1.525 billion, funded by internal funds and borrowings. Construction is scheduled for November 2025 to December 2029, approximately 50 months. A Cailian Press headline described the product as high-performance, low-cobalt battery materials; the company said the project aligns with the strategic development plans of downstream customers.
4.13 Acquisitions Under Common Control
The acquisition of the relevant business assets of the Secondary Resources Manufacturing Department of Xiamen Tungsten’s Haicang branch and a 47% stake in Ganzhou Haopeng Technology was retrospectively reflected in the 2025 annual report.
4.14 Proceeds from Equity Financing
In 2022, the company issued shares to specific investors at RMB 71.46 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately RMB 3.500 billion and net proceeds of approximately RMB 3.493 billion. The 30,000-tonne annual expansion project for lithium-ion battery materials at the Haijing base was completed, as announced on April 23, 2026, announcement number 2026-015, and surplus proceeds were permanently used to replenish working capital. The proceeds account was closed in June 2026, and the balance of RMB 461.5 million, including interest and investment-management income, was transferred to the company’s own account, announcement number 2026-029 dated June 5, 2026. As of June 30, 2026, cumulative proceeds used for the project amounted to approximately RMB 3.085 billion.
4.15 Overseas and Capacity Progress
The French base’s 40,000-tonne annual ternary-materials project has been groundbreaking and entered the full construction phase, according to a Huatai Securities report dated September 10, 2026.
4.16 Industry and Policy News
The 2026 interim report and institutional commentary stated that demand for lithium cobalt oxide benefited from the national replacement-subsidy policy and the integration of AI into 3C devices. Lithium cobalt oxide grew against the industry trend: industry-wide production declined 13.9% year on year in 2026H1, while the company’s output increased 1.46%; products with voltage ratings of 4.5V or above accounted for 66.42%. Source: Huatai Securities.
4.17 Liquidity and Market News (Limited Information)
A snapshot on Cailian Press’s company page showed RMB 42.05, down 2.80%, total shares of 505 million, market capitalization of RMB 21.222 billion, PE (TTM) of 22.60 and PB of 2.23. News timestamps included August 20, August 31 and September 9, 2026. A Sina announcement-page snapshot showed a September 4 close of RMB 46.13, down 0.67%, and a September 9 close of RMB 43.96, down 0.99%. Uncertainty: specific net inflow/outflow figures for major funds in August–September 2026 were not identified. Market snapshots from different sources had different dates and prices (RMB 42.05/43.96/45.88/46.13). Prices and market capitalizations should therefore be cited with their respective source dates and should not be mixed.
4.18 Source Reliability and Limitations
Company-level announcements primarily came from full announcement texts on Sina Finance, Shanghai Securities News, Securities Daily, China Securities Journal, CNINFO and SSE PDFs. Reliability is high, with cross-source verification available for most items. Profit distributions, repurchases, director changes and proceeds-project completion all have corresponding announcement numbers. Earnings data, including the interim forecast and annual earnings flash report, were cross-checked across Sina’s earnings-forecast page, a Soochow Securities report and Opportunity News. Single-source data requiring caution include: (a) the 145.62% earnings-change figure from wlstock, which conflicts with other sources and has been determined to be erroneous; and (b) market data and shareholder counts from Cailian Press/Baidu F10, which are single-page snapshots and were not independently checked, with dates governed by the page labels. Items not verified include whether new extraordinary announcements were issued in September 2026, other than the interim dividend implementation announcement; whether a new 2026 repurchase plan was adopted; and major-fund flows in August–September 2026. These could not be confirmed because the search was terminated and should be marked as not identified/pending verification. Most financial figures are from earnings flash reports or forecasts and are unaudited; periodic reports should prevail. Latest announcement date: September 10, 2026; shareholder data date: June 30, 2026; market snapshots: around September 11, 2026.
5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis
5.1 Price Overview
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock code/name | 688778 XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen XTC New Energy Materials Co., Ltd.), SSE STAR Market |
| Closing price | RMB 42.05 |
| Change | -RMB 1.21, -2.80% (previous close RMB 43.26) |
| Open/high/low/average price | Open 43.26 / high 43.35 / low 41.03 / average 41.74; amplitude 5.36% |
| Volume/value/volume ratio | 52,300 lots (5.2338 million shares); RMB 218 million; volume ratio 1.15 |
| Turnover rate | 1.04% |
| Total/free-float market capitalization | Total RMB 21.222 billion; free float RMB 21.222 billion (almost fully circulating; restricted A shares 0) |
| Total/free-float shares | 504.69 million shares (504,691,083 shares) |
| Valuation | Dynamic PE 21.60; PE (TTM) 23.30; static PE 28.12; PB 2.23 (2.27 on Eastmoney’s concept page); PS (TTM) 0.79 |
| Period performance (Eastmoney methodology) | Today -2.80%, 3 days -5.29%, 5 days -8.84%, 10 days -11.57%; corresponding battery-sector declines were 3 days -4.08%, 5 days -4.09% and 10 days -7.16%, indicating materially weaker performance than the sector |
| 52-week high | Approximately RMB 102.3–102.6 (source discrepancy: 102.28/102.58/102.03; exact date not cross-verified, inferred from the time window to be around late 2025 to Q1 2026) |
| 52-week low | RMB 41.03, the intraday low on September 11, 2026, marking a new 52-week low; the previous low was RMB 42.05 |
| Drawdown from 52-week high | Approximately 59%–60% |
| Historical extremes for reference | Moomoo shows a historical high of 102.28, Tiger Brokers 168.00 and TradingView an adjusted high of 120.00 on July 21, 2022. Methodologies differ, likely due to pre- and post-adjustment differences, and these figures are not used as conclusions |
5.2 Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Brief interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| MA5 | 43.76 | Closing price of 42.05 is below MA5; short-term moving averages are bearishly aligned |
| MA10 | 44.69 | Closing price is below MA10; short-term trend is weak |
| MA20 | 45.82 | Closing price is below MA20; short-term moving averages are bearishly aligned |
| 10-day line (AAStocks, updated September 8, 2026) | 45.899 | Similar to Jiufang Intelligent Investment’s MA10; direction is consistent, but source dates differ and figures are not fully comparable |
| 50-day line (AAStocks, September 8, 2026) | 47.200 | Closing price is materially below the 50-day line; medium-term trend is downward |
| 90-day line (AAStocks, September 8, 2026) | 57.855 | Closing price is materially below the 90-day line; medium-term trend is downward |
| 250-day line (AAStocks, September 8, 2026) | 70.262 | Closing price is materially below the 250-day line; long-term trend is downward |
| MACD | MACD = -0.60, DIF = -1.19, DEA = unavailable (not recorded in the research memorandum) | MACD and DIF are negative, indicating weak short-term momentum. The golden-cross/death-cross status cannot be assessed because DEA is unavailable |
| RSI | Data unavailable; RSI was not recorded in the research memorandum | Overbought/oversold conditions cannot be assessed |
| Bollinger Bands | Data unavailable; the research memorandum explicitly stated that the figures could not be sufficiently cross-verified | Support and resistance based on Bollinger Bands cannot be assessed |
| KDJ/other indicators | Data unavailable; not recorded in the research memorandum | No assessment |
As of the September 11, 2026 close, XTC New Energy Materials was quoted at RMB 42.05, down 2.80% on the day, while the intraday low of RMB 41.03 marked a new 52-week low. The stock had retreated approximately 59%–60% from its 52-week high of approximately RMB 102.3–102.6. It was below the MA5 (RMB 43.76), MA10 (RMB 44.69) and MA20 (RMB 45.82), with the short-term moving averages bearishly aligned, and materially below the 50-day (RMB 47.20), 90-day (RMB 57.86) and 250-day (RMB 70.26) lines, indicating downward medium- and long-term trends. MACD was negative (-0.60), with DIF at -1.19, indicating weak short-term momentum. RSI and Bollinger Band data were unavailable or insufficiently cross-verified in the research memorandum, limiting the related analysis. The stock’s 3-day, 5-day and 10-day declines of -5.29%, -8.84% and -11.57% were materially greater than the corresponding battery-sector declines of -4.08%, -4.09% and -7.16%. The stock showed clear weakness and had fallen below the previous low of RMB 42.05, placing it technically in a continued decline and bottom-finding phase. Several indicators, including Bollinger Bands, the precise date of the 52-week high and DEA, were missing or differed by source, limiting the reliability of the assessment.
5.3 Short-Term Outlook (One-Week Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)
⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices and technical indicators. Scenario weights are subjective heuristic judgments rather than statistical probabilities. This does not constitute investment advice. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.
① Key Technical Levels
| Level | Range | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term resistance | RMB 43.8–45.8 | Resistance band formed by MA5 (43.76), MA10 (44.69) and MA20 (45.82). If the stock moves above the top of this range on higher volume, short-term weakness may ease; the area around the 50-day line at RMB 47.20 would then be the next focus |
| First support | RMB 41.0–42.1 | RMB 42.05 was the previous low and RMB 41.03 was the intraday low on September 11, 2026, a new 52-week low. This is the nearest current support zone. A break would confirm a valid new low, with little recent high-volume trading area available as a reference below |
| Strong support | Around the RMB 40 round-number level (reference range, insufficient basis) | The research memorandum did not provide the lower Bollinger Band or earlier lows as quantifiable support. This level is only a round-number reference and lacks sufficient data support. If RMB 41.03 is broken without signs of stabilization, further downside should be reassessed using new data |
② One-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)
- Range-bound consolidation (relatively high weight, approximately 60%; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): The share price fluctuates between RMB 41.0 and RMB 43.8, between the recent low of RMB 41.03 and MA5 at RMB 43.76. Triggers include stabilization of the overall battery sector, no significant negative market developments and daily turnover remaining around the recent RMB 200 million level without significant contraction or expansion. Under this scenario, moving averages would remain bearishly aligned and any rebound would be limited.
- Further weakness (medium weight; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): If the battery sector continues to weaken, with recent declines of -4.08% over 3 days, -4.09% over 5 days and -7.16% over 10 days, or if the broader market corrects, a decisive break below RMB 41.03 and a close below that level would confirm a valid new low and could trigger further support-seeking declines. Triggers include a break below RMB 41.03 without a significant increase in turnover, indicating a lack of buying support, or a high-volume decline. Attention should be paid to support around the RMB 40 round-number level.
- Stronger rebound (low weight; subjective heuristic weight, not a statistical probability): A sector-wide rebound, company-specific positive catalysts such as operating data or industry policy, or clear fund inflows could allow the stock to reclaim MA5 at RMB 43.76 on higher volume and challenge the MA10/MA20 resistance band at RMB 44.69–45.82. Triggers include a significant increase in daily turnover, a move above RMB 43.8 and simultaneous strengthening of the battery sector. A low-volume rebound toward MA5 without volume confirmation would more likely fall under the range-bound consolidation scenario.
③ Liquidity and Fund-Flow Background
In terms of liquidity, the September 11 turnover rate was 1.04%, turnover was RMB 218 million, volume was 52,300 lots and the volume ratio was 1.15. Recent turnover was generally in the RMB 100–200 million range, based on RMB 53.917 million on September 3, RMB 99.0208 million on September 4, RMB 123 million on September 7 and RMB 218 million on September 11. Overall liquidity was relatively low. Total market capitalization was RMB 21.222 billion and the stock was almost fully circulating, with no restricted A shares; free-float shares and total shares were both 504.69 million. The research memorandum did not provide concentration data for the top ten shareholders or information on institutional holders such as public funds, social-security funds or QFII. It only recorded Xiamen Tungsten (600549) as the controlling shareholder and the Fujian SASAC as the ultimate controller. This information came from the company’s basic profile, did not include the latest reporting-period ownership concentration and may have changed. It therefore cannot be used to assess institutional holdings or shareholding concentration. Given the 1.04% turnover rate and approximately RMB 200 million of daily turnover, intraday liquidity is relatively thin, and large transactions may face wider slippage, with prices more susceptible to amplified moves caused by fund inflows and outflows.
Volume confirmation signal: sustained daily turnover above RMB 300 million, approximately 1.4 times the recent upper-normal level of RMB 218 million, may be viewed as an observation signal of fund participation. Sustained turnover below RMB 100 million would indicate strong wait-and-see sentiment and a lack of buying support.
④ Key Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)
- Monitor whether RMB 41.03, the 52-week low, and the RMB 41.0–42.1 support zone hold. A decisive close below this area would increase the likelihood of the further-weakness scenario (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).
- Monitor whether the RMB 43.8–45.8 resistance band formed by MA5/MA10/MA20 can be reclaimed on higher volume. A low-volume rebound toward this band would more likely revert to range-bound consolidation (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).
- Monitor daily turnover. Sustained turnover above RMB 300 million may signal fund participation, while turnover below RMB 100 million would indicate inadequate buying support (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).
- Monitor overall battery-sector performance, including the recent 10-day decline of -7.16%, and the broader market environment. The stock has declined more than the sector, so stabilization of the sector will be an important external constraint on the stock’s performance (observation framework only, not a trading instruction).
The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices may also be affected by news flow, liquidity, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations. This analysis does not guarantee future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks. The research memorandum also lacked or disputed Bollinger Band data, RSI, DEA, the precise date of the 52-week high and top-ten-shareholder concentration data, limiting the completeness of the assessment.
6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis
6.1 Industry Status
This section of the research memorandum covers only industry structure and competitors. It does not provide complete quantitative data on industry size, growth or competitive structure. The following content therefore mainly describes the company’s own industry position and comparable companies mentioned in the memorandum; detailed industry data are unavailable.
6.2 Competitive Landscape
- The company is a global leader in lithium cobalt oxide and remained the world’s largest shipper in 2025 (source: 2026 interim-report operating review and multiple broker reports). The company states that its hydrogen-storage alloy market share has ranked first in China for 16 consecutive years (source: Huaxi Securities F10; single-source figure not cross-verified)
- Downstream demand for lithium cobalt oxide was supported by inventory building triggered by cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Lithium cobalt oxide revenue increased 78.90% year on year in 2025, driven by simultaneous volume and price increases; shipments continued to grow against the trend in 2026H1 (sources: Eastmoney and Securities Times)
- In ternary materials, the company is expanding into hybrids, range-extended vehicles and mid- to high-end electric vehicles, as well as emerging applications such as low-altitude aviation and robotics. Its lithium iron phosphate products use a differentiated hydrothermal process focused on low-temperature performance and high rate capability
- Advanced-materials pipeline: lithium-compensation materials have entered mass production; a polyanionic sodium-ion cathode material has completed pilot testing; a 10-tonne lithium sulfide production line is in place; and NL new-structure cathode materials are under development
- Capacity footprint: the company owns or is constructing new-energy-material production bases in Haicang, Jinglu or Haijing, Sanming, Ningde, Ya’an, Fuquan and France. Descriptions differ by source and the annual report should prevail. The Ningde base’s new CD workshop adds 70,000 tonnes of cathode capacity; the Ya’an base is planned to have total lithium iron phosphate capacity of 80,000 tonnes per year; the 40,000-tonne ternary-precursor project in Fuquan is under construction; the French 40,000-tonne ternary-material project was groundbreaking in 2026H1; and the 10,000-tonne Malaysian cathode-material project is progressing through ODI approval
- The research memorandum did not identify quantitative data on overall industry size, growth or CR5, nor did it provide quantitative comparisons of competitors’ capacity or market share
6.3 Major Competitors
| Company | Positioning | Description |
|---|---|---|
| XTC New Energy Materials (688778.SH) | Global leader in lithium cobalt oxide, with multiple lithium-battery cathode-material technology routes, including lithium cobalt oxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, hydrogen-energy materials and advanced materials | 2025 revenue of RMB 19.813 billion; lithium cobalt oxide accounted for 60.21% of revenue and had a gross margin of 9.90%. The five largest customers accounted for 78.34% of revenue as of December 31, 2025, based on Tonghuashun F10 data that were not cross-verified |
| Comparable company A | The research memorandum did not provide a specific company name, business description or financial data | No cross-verifiable list of A-share peer competitors or quantitative comparison data was identified; this table retains only the company’s own information and states missing fields as such |
| Comparable company B | The research memorandum did not provide a specific company name, business description or financial data | No cross-verifiable list of A-share peer competitors or quantitative comparison data was identified; this table retains only the company’s own information and states missing fields as such |
The research memorandum did not provide quantitative comparisons with competitors, such as capacity, market share, profit per tonne or gross-margin comparisons, so a horizontal comparison cannot be conducted. Confirmed company characteristics include the world’s largest lithium cobalt oxide shipments, the largest hydrogen-storage alloy market share in China according to a single unverified source, forward integration into ternary precursors and overseas capacity, and development of lithium sulfide, sodium-ion and lithium-compensation materials. The lack of industry-structure and competitor-comparison data must be addressed using the latest annual-report industry section and third-party industry databases before a full assessment can be made.
7. Risk Factors
- Sustainability risk for simultaneous volume and price growth in lithium cobalt oxide: One major reason for the 78.90% increase in lithium cobalt oxide revenue in 2025 was that cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo triggered downstream inventory building, while higher raw-material prices pushed up product selling prices. This was a cost-pass-through model rather than the company extracting excess gross profit. If cobalt-export policy eases or downstream inventory building reverses, selling prices and shipments may come under simultaneous pressure.
- Deterioration in earnings quality and financial leverage: 2026H1 gross margin was 8.29%, down 2.08 percentage points year on year; net operating cash flow was RMB 283 million, down 55.84%; and the debt-to-assets ratio was 61.35%, up 19.86 percentage points. Total assets at the end of 2025 were RMB 21.931 billion, up 46.36% year on year. If expansion-related financial pressure and cash-flow deterioration continue, they may constrain future capital expenditure and dividend capacity.
- High downstream customer concentration: As of December 31, 2025, the five largest customers generated RMB 15.574 billion of sales, or 78.34% of revenue, with the largest customer accounting for 38.28%. These figures are based on Tonghuashun F10 data and were not cross-checked against the original annual report. The customer base includes ATL, Samsung SDI, LGC, Murata, BYD, Panasonic and CATL. Any adjustment in the share or demand of a major customer could materially affect revenue.
- High upstream supplier concentration and limited volume-locking bargaining power: As of December 31, 2025, the five largest suppliers accounted for RMB 13.477 billion of purchases, or 60.89% of total purchases, and the largest supplier accounted for 30.44%. Supplier names were not disclosed, so whether Xiamen Tungsten is included cannot be verified. Closing prepayments were only RMB 18.23 million as of June 30, 2024, indicating that the company has little ability to lock in nickel, cobalt and lithium volumes through prepayments and is closer to a price-taker.
- Construction and approval risks for overseas capacity and upstream projects: The French 40,000-tonne ternary-materials project broke ground in 2026H1 and entered full construction; the Malaysian 10,000-tonne cathode-material project is progressing through ODI approval; the 40,000-tonne Fuquan ternary-precursor project is under construction; and the 50,000-tonne high-performance battery-materials project has total investment of RMB 1.525 billion and a construction period from November 2025 to December 2029, approximately 50 months. Delays caused by approvals, construction or changes in demand could affect the pace at which overseas high-margin capacity is realized. Overseas gross margin was 27.55% in 2024 versus 8.40% domestically.
- Commercialization uncertainty for advanced-materials businesses: Lithium-compensation materials have entered mass production, but only one polyanionic sodium-ion cathode material has completed pilot testing, lithium sulfide is represented by a 10-tonne production line and NL new-structure cathode materials remain at an early stage. These businesses have not yet generated material revenue and their contribution to current earnings is limited. R&D and commercialization may progress more slowly than expected.
- Shareholder sell-down and technically weak share-price risk: Ningbo Haicheng Lingzun, a shareholder holding more than 5%, proposed to sell no more than 8,146,828 shares, or no more than 1.9362% of total shares, according to the January 16, 2025 announcement. As of September 11, 2026, the share price of RMB 42.05 had reached a new 52-week low and fallen below the MA5/MA10/MA20 and 50-day/90-day/250-day lines. The number of shareholders reached 23,200 as of June 30, 2026, up 30.27% from the previous period, indicating more dispersed ownership and potentially higher short-term volatility.
- Data-definition and disclosure uncertainty: The year-on-year growth rate of 2026Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders differs between +27.78% and +42.4%–42.5%, with reverse calculation more supportive of +27.78%. The RMB 20.034 billion revenue figure in the 2025 earnings flash report differs by approximately RMB 150 million from the final annual-report figure of RMB 19.880 billion. Key customer- and supplier-concentration data are based solely on Tonghuashun F10 and could not be cross-checked against the original annual report. The 2026Q3 report had not yet been disclosed, so the latest operating data are limited to the unaudited 2026H1 figures.
8. Conclusion and Outlook
The growth thesis is based primarily on three factors. First, product-mix upgrades: the share of high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide continued to rise, with products rated at 4.5V or above accounting for 66.42% in 2026H1, while high-nickel ternary materials are ramping up. Lithium cobalt oxide gross margin was 9.90% in 2025, compared with 10.95% in 2024 under the stated reporting methodology, while gross margin for ternary materials, including lithium iron phosphate and other products, recovered from 7.88% to 9.32%. Second, upstream integration may partially offset raw-material volatility. The 40,000-tonne Fuquan ternary-precursor project is under construction, while the 2025 acquisition of the relevant business assets of Xiamen Tungsten’s Haicang branch and a 47% stake in Ganzhou Haopeng, together with the establishment of Circular Technology, connects retired batteries, cascade utilization, resource recycling, precursors and battery materials. Third, overseas capacity may generate a structural premium. Overseas gross margins were 19.10%, 24.03% and 27.55% in 2022–2024, respectively, materially above domestic gross margins of 8.17%, 6.66% and 8.40%. The French 40,000-tonne ternary-materials project has broken ground and entered full construction, while the Malaysian 10,000-tonne cathode-material project is progressing through ODI approval. The company has also established a wholly owned subsidiary to invest in a 50,000-tonne annual high-performance battery-materials project, with total investment of RMB 1.525 billion and a construction period from November 2025 to December 2029. It proposed an interim dividend of RMB 3.00 per 10 shares in 2026, for total cash dividends of RMB 151 million, or 30.75% of 2026H1 net profit attributable to shareholders, maintaining its dividend policy.
Risks and uncertainties are equally clear. One major reason for the 78.90% increase in lithium cobalt oxide revenue in 2025 was downstream inventory building caused by cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with higher raw-material prices driving higher selling prices. This was cost-pass-through growth rather than expansion of excess gross profit, and the sustainability of simultaneous volume and price growth is uncertain if cobalt prices and inventory-building trends reverse. In 2026H1, gross margin declined 2.08 percentage points year on year, operating cash flow declined 55.84% and the debt-to-assets ratio rose 19.86 percentage points, indicating accumulating financial pressure from expansion. The five largest customers accounted for 78.34% of revenue and the largest customer for 38.28%; the five largest suppliers accounted for 60.89% of purchases and the largest supplier for 30.44%. Concentration is high on both sides, and changes in the share of any major customer or supplier could materially affect operations. Technical and liquidity conditions were also weak: the stock reached a new 52-week low and fell below all major moving averages, while turnover was only 1.04% and trading value RMB 218 million on September 11, 2026. Low volume may amplify intraday price movements caused by fund inflows and outflows.
Key variables to monitor include whether cobalt prices and downstream inventory building continue to support lithium cobalt oxide volumes and prices; whether gross margin and operating cash flow stabilize in the second half of 2026; the commissioning progress and capital-expenditure pace of the French, Malaysian and Fuquan projects; and whether the 2026Q3 report, which had not yet been disclosed, validates the above trends. Whether the consensus forecasts of 2026–2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.069 billion/RMB 1.316 billion/RMB 1.561 billion are achieved will depend on the actual realization of these factors. These forecasts are broker estimates rather than company disclosures and may differ from actual results. This section does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation.
Data Sources
- 688778 XTC New Energy Materials
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778)_Company Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Charts_News_Research_Financials_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
- XTC New Energy Materials (sh688778)
- SH.688778 XTC New Energy Materials - A-Share Real-Time Quote - Company Information
- 688778 XTC New Energy Materials - Core Business
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778.SH) Operating Analysis - PC_HSF10 Data - Core Business
- Xiamen XTC New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. 2026 Interim Report Summary - 2026
- Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) September 11 Major-Fund Net Purchases of RMB 4.0976 Million - Securities Star
- XTC New Energy Materials Listed-Company Information
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) - F10 Data - Compass Market
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778)_Company Profile_CFi.cn
- SSE Roadshow Center - Institutional Details
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778): Strong Earnings Growth and Accelerating Profitability; Advanced Materials and Global Capacity as Dual Growth Drivers
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) 2025 Annual Report and 2026 Q1 Review: Volume Growth and Stable Profitability; Lithium Sulfide Provides Earnings Optionality
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778): Volume and Price Growth Drive Expansion; Lithium Cobalt Oxide Leader Continues to Outperform
- XTC New Energy Materials’ Strong Q1 Growth; Product-Mix Optimization as the Core Driver
- Popular Discussion Threads
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) 2025 Annual Report and 2026 Q1 Review: Firm Lithium Cobalt Oxide Position; Diversified Lithium-Battery, Solid-State and Hydrogen-Energy Materials
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778.SH) 2025 Annual Report and 2026 Q1 Review: Core Business Strengthened; Multiple Breakthroughs in Advanced Materials
- XTC New Energy Materials’ Strong 2025 and 2026 Q1 Growth; Volume/Price Growth and Product-Mix Optimization as Core Drivers
- Strong Performance of XTC New Energy Materials’ Lithium-Battery Cathode Materials
- Nearly RMB 20 Billion in Annual Revenue! XTC New Energy Materials Releases Major Financial Results
- XTC New Energy Materials: 2024 Audit Report
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) Business Analysis
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778): Lithium Cobalt Oxide Expands Against the Trend; Diversified Technology Layout Supports Long-Term Growth
- Lithium Cobalt Oxide Shipments Grow Against the Trend; XTC New Energy Materials’ H1 Revenue Rises 91.09% Year on Year
- 2026 Interim Report Review: Volume and Profit per Tonne Improve Steadily; Broad Advanced-Technology Layout
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778): Lithium Cobalt Oxide Shipments Grow Against the Trend
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) 2026 Interim Report Review: High-End Cathode Advantage Strengthened; Advanced Materials Expand Growth Space
- Financial Express | XTC New Energy Materials’ H1 Finance Costs Surge 332 Times; Net Profit Growth Half of Revenue Growth; Cash Flow Falls Nearly 60%
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) 2026 Interim Report Review: Volume and Profit per Tonne Improve Steadily; Broad Advanced-Technology Layout
- XTC New Energy Materials: Lithium Cobalt Oxide Leader Strengthened; Power Cathode Shipments Drive Strong Earnings Growth
- BOC Securities Gives XTC New Energy Materials an Accumulate Rating
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) Profit Forecasts - PC_HSF10 Data
- XTC New Energy Materials (sh688778) Price Trend
- XTC New Energy Materials 42.05 -1.21 (-2.80%) Latest Price
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778.SH) - Fast Quote
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778.SH)
- XTC New Energy Materials (688778) Fund Flows
- SSE Listed Company Information: Xiamen XTC New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. 688778
This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current through the September 11, 2026 close (most recent trading day). Market data was sourced from the SSE listed-company page, Securities Times, Sina Finance, Eastmoney and other sources, with cross-source verification showing consistency, although timing differences may exist. Specific data should be based on the company’s formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.
Fair-value range, DCF / industry models, comparable-company checks, confidence and key assumptions