Minmetals New Energy Materials (Hunan) Co., Ltd. (688779)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Lithium-Battery Cathode Materials　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　September 11, 2026 (Friday) Close (latest trading day visible in the research notes)

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Minmetals New Energy (688779.SH, formerly Changyuan Lico) experienced a significant earnings reversal in 2025–2026. The most decision-relevant fact is that in 1H2026, the company achieved revenue of RMB 7.812 billion, up 169.00% year on year, attributable net profit of RMB 378 million, and non-GAAP attributable net profit of RMB 373 million, compared with an attributable net loss of RMB 26.8265 million in the prior-year period, thereby turning profitable year on year. In 2Q2026 alone, revenue was RMB 4.802 billion (+220.95% YoY, +59.51% QoQ) and attributable net profit was RMB 296 million (+700.05% YoY, +264.76% QoQ), indicating accelerating profitability improvement. For full-year 2025, the company had already returned to profitability, with revenue of RMB 9.340 billion (+68.62% YoY) and attributable net profit of RMB 228 million, ending the two consecutive loss-making years of 2023 (RMB -124 million) and 2024 (RMB -508 million). Overall gross margin recovered from 2.95% in 2024 to 7.87% on a battery-materials basis in 2025, while the gross margin of cathode materials further recovered to 11.21% in 1H2026.

The direct drivers of the earnings reversal were volume growth and economies of scale. Cathode-material sales reached 115,487.70 tonnes in 2025, versus 70,992.43 tonnes in 2024 and 62,265.92 tonnes in 2023. The company attributed the increase to the rapid development of new-energy vehicles and energy storage, with coordinated growth across power batteries, energy storage and consumer electronics. However, the company’s position in the industry chain determines its low-margin characteristics. It operates in the midstream processing segment of lithium-battery cathode materials, essentially under a metal-raw-material cost-plus-processing-fee model. Direct materials generally account for more than 90% of cost, making the company highly sensitive to nickel, cobalt and lithium prices and a raw-material price taker. Its main competitive barrier comes from China Minmetals’ internal supply of nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium resources and its integrated “resources–precursors–cathodes–recycling” business model.

Structural positives coexist with structural pressure. On the positive side, overseas gross margin is significantly higher than domestic gross margin (12.49% overseas versus 7.80% domestic in 2025; 20.89% overseas in 1H2026), although overseas revenue remains small at only 2.31% of total revenue in 1H2026. China Chengxin International’s tracking rating report indicates that cathode-material capacity utilisation was approximately 63% in 2025. Although improved from earlier levels, it remained low, leaving room for further scale benefits. On the negative side, customer concentration has remained high: the top five customers accounted for 76.66% of sales in 2025, limiting bargaining power against leading battery customers such as CATL. The top five suppliers accounted for 59.71%, also a high level. Working capital is heavily tied up: receivables were RMB 4.919 billion at end-1Q2026, approximately 1.63x quarterly revenue of RMB 3.010 billion, and the top five customers accounted for approximately 80% of receivables.

In the secondary market, as of the September 11, 2026 close, the share price was RMB 7.44, down 3.00% on the day and underperforming battery chemicals (-2.80%) and batteries (-2.45%). The share price was below all of the MA5 (RMB 7.63), MA10 (RMB 7.76) and MA20 (RMB 7.96). JFZTO data showed the two MACD lines falling below the zero axis, while RSI of 19.20 and the D value of 17.00 in KD were in oversold territory. The average chip cost of RMB 8.67 was above the current price. Eastmoney’s Qian Gu Qian Ping data, however, showed “no obvious signal” in its main indicators, reflecting differences in vendor thresholds. Main-fund net outflow over the past five trading days totalled approximately RMB 28.7655 million. The September 11 decline occurred on reduced volume, with turnover of RMB 132 million, slightly over 60% of the approximately RMB 200 million level implied by the 65-day average volume. The margin-financing and securities-lending balance difference was RMB 1.001 billion, equivalent to 6.98% of the free float, significantly above the market average of 3.95%.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Ternary cathode materials, including internally supplied precursors
• Lithium iron phosphate cathode materials
• Lithium cobalt oxide cathode materials
• Spherical nickel, a cathode material for nickel-metal hydride batteries
• Ternary precursors, with capacity available and production entirely for internal use or R&D

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain and Cost/Profit Structure

The company operates in the midstream, low-margin processing segment of lithium-battery cathode materials, the middle section of the smile curve. Its business is essentially based on metal-material costs plus processing fees, with ternary materials and LFP providing dual growth engines. The following points review the upstream cost side, downstream customers, working-capital usage and gross-margin trend. The main sources are the 2025 annual report disclosed on 2026-04-28/29, the 2026 interim report and China Chengxin International’s 2026 tracking rating report dated 2026-06-27.

• Materials actually procured for cathode products: nickel sulphate, ternary precursors, some purchased externally, cobalt sulphate, lithium carbonate, crude lithium hydroxide, manganese sulphate and tricobalt tetroxide. Sources: China Chengxin International’s 2026 tracking rating report and the company’s convertible-bond prospectus.
• Cost structure: Direct materials generally account for more than 90% of cost. The company is essentially exposed to metal prices plus processing fees and is highly sensitive to nickel, cobalt and lithium prices. It is a raw-material price taker, partially offsetting this exposure through internal group supply, long-term contracts and equity investments.
• Supplier concentration: The top five suppliers accounted for 59.71% in 2025, which the rating report classified as relatively high. Upstream bill settlement increased, while payment terms remained stable.
• Average purchase prices of major raw materials (RMB 10,000/tonne, rating-report data): nickel sulphate 2.71 in 2023 → 2.46 in 2024 → 2.34 in 2025; ternary precursor 7.10 → 5.88 → 6.59; cobalt sulphate 3.17 → 2.73 → 4.77; lithium carbonate 17.90 → 6.88 → 6.17; manganese sulphate 0.41 → 0.44 → 0.45; crude lithium hydroxide 21.90 → 7.52 → 6.29. The sharp fall in lithium carbonate and crude lithium hydroxide prices in 2024 was a key upstream reason for compressed margins. In 2025, cobalt sulphate prices recovered while nickel sulphate prices continued to decline, resulting in mixed cost movements.
• Upstream resource security: Leveraging China Minmetals’ nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium resources, the company states that it can obtain group resource support. It also participates in upstream investments through equity stakes and long-term procurement contracts. Sources: company investor-interaction platform dated 2024-12-09 and Shanghai Securities News’ 2024-12-24 research report. In April 2025, management of MCC Ramu New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was transferred to the company on an integrated basis. This information comes from a single source, hx168 F10, and relates to the Ramu nickel-cobalt project in Papua New Guinea operated by Minmetals and MCC; the exact equity interests and capacity should be cross-checked against the latest annual report and announcements.
• Integrated footprint: resources–precursors–cathode materials–recycling. Subsidiary Jinchih Energy is a first-tier ternary-precursor producer with mass-production capabilities for medium- and high-nickel Ni60-70, Ni80, ultra-high-nickel Ni90+ NCM/NCA, high-power and solid-state precursors. All of its precursors were used for the company’s internally produced ternary cathode materials during the reporting period.
• Existing capacity (as of the 2025 annual report/early 2026): 120,000 tonnes/year of ternary cathode materials, 60,000 tonnes/year of LFP materials, 78,000 tonnes/year of precursors, 100,000 tonnes/year of battery-grade nickel sulphate, 10,000 tonnes/year of used-battery recycling and 40 tonnes/year of high-purity scandium oxide.
• Actual capacity, production and sales in 2023–2025 (China Chengxin International): cathode-material capacity of 129,450 tonnes in 2023 → 179,985 tonnes in 2024 → 182,533 tonnes in 2025; production of 60,999.57 → 75,144.12 → 114,773.41 tonnes; sales of 62,265.92 → 70,992.43 → 115,487.70 tonnes. Ternary-precursor capacity remained at 30,000 tonnes/year, with production of 16,922.95 → 19,731.88 → 18,866.28 tonnes, all for internal use or R&D. Cathode-material capacity utilisation was approximately 63% in 2025, which the rating report described as improved but still low.
• Under construction/expansion: vehicle lithium-battery cathode-material expansion, Phase II cathode-material expansion and a 60,000-tonne/year LFP project, with combined budgets of approximately RMB 4.674 billion.
• R&D and technology: 202 valid patents as of 2025-12-31 according to Eastmoney’s core-concept page. The rating report counted 145 valid invention patents and 44 utility-model patents, with 29 new invention patents obtained in 2025. The two statistical bases differ; the annual report should prevail. All-solid-state high-nickel cathodes, lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes and sodium-ion cathodes have entered customer introduction or tonne-scale shipment stages.
• Customer base: CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, Sunwoda, SVOLT and other major lithium-battery companies. The company positions itself as a core supplier to leading battery manufacturers including CATL, EVE Energy and Sunwoda.
• Customer concentration: The top five customers accounted for 76.66% of sales in 2025, according to the rating report and the company’s investor-interaction response dated 2026-06-08. Historical data show the top five customers accounted for 86.61% of main-business revenue in 2019, 78.38% in 2020 and 83.99% in 2021. Sales to CATL and its subsidiaries represented 58.43%, 38.20% and 45.52%, respectively.
• Conclusion: Dependence on downstream customers has remained high, and buyers, especially CATL, have strong bargaining power. The company explicitly listed the risk in its convertible-bond documents that CATL could use its industry position to compress the issuer’s profit margin.
• Industry bargaining structure: Cathode-material producers are on the receiving end of annual price reductions and pricing pressure from battery manufacturers. The downstream battery industry itself is highly concentrated. Supplier qualification takes 12–36 months, creating high customer stickiness, but bargaining power remains tilted toward buyers. The situation is similar to the annual price reductions imposed by OEMs on Tier-1 auto-parts suppliers.
• Overseas revenue: Overseas revenue accounted for only 1.65% in 2025 and 2.31% in 1H2026, but overseas gross margin was significantly higher than domestic gross margin: 12.49% versus 7.80% in 2025 and 20.89% overseas in 1H2026.
• Receivables: Receivables were RMB 4.919 billion at end-1Q2026, approximately 1.63x quarterly revenue of RMB 3.010 billion. The company stated that the top five customers accounted for approximately 80% of receivables. Contractual terms are mainly bill receipt followed by monthly settlement within 60 or 90 days. The company said receivables were generally within the credit period and collections were normal, with provisions made under an expected-credit-loss model. The rating report noted that the high concentration of downstream customers weakened overall bargaining power and lengthened settlement periods. Receivables equivalent to approximately 1.6 quarters of revenue and concentrated among the top five customers indicate that battery manufacturers occupy a large amount of the company’s working capital.
• Limitations: Historical customer-concentration data for 2019–2021 came from the convertible-bond filing basis and may differ from the current basis. The above figures are labelled by source year; the latest annual report and announcements should prevail.

The company is a midstream, low-margin processor whose business is based on metal-material costs plus processing fees. Upstream, it is constrained by nickel, cobalt and lithium-price fluctuations and high supplier concentration; direct materials account for more than 90% of cost, making the company a raw-material price taker. Downstream, it faces highly concentrated battery customers such as CATL, with the top five accounting for 76.66% of sales in 2025. Bargaining power is weak, and significant receivables are tied up. Its moat comes from China Minmetals’ internal supply of nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium and the cost offsets created by the resources–precursors–cathodes–recycling chain. Future margin improvement will mainly depend on: (1) product upgrades, including high- and ultra-high-nickel, medium-nickel high-voltage, third- and fourth-generation LFP, solid-state and lithium-rich manganese materials; (2) increased overseas high-margin orders; and (3) improved capacity utilisation and economies of scale. Price increases alone are unlikely to solve the issue because the industry structure makes the company a price taker.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

1H2026 non-GAAP attributable net profit was RMB 373 million, up 812.61% YoY, and basic EPS was RMB 0.20. Operating costs were RMB 6.936 billion, up 157.59% YoY. Calculated 1H2026 overall gross margin was approximately 11.2%, consistent with the 11.21% cathode-material gross margin in Eastmoney’s business-composition table. Revenue was highly concentrated: cathode materials contributed RMB 7.746 billion, or 99.15%; domestic revenue accounted for 97.69% and overseas revenue 2.31%. Non-GAAP attributable net profit was RMB 219 million in 2025. Battery materials contributed RMB 9.219 billion, or 98.70%, with a 7.87% gross margin. The proposed dividend was RMB 0.04137 per share. In 2024, non-GAAP attributable net loss was RMB 557 million, overall gross margin only 2.95%, down 1.75 percentage points, and diluted EPS was RMB -0.2631. The loss was attributed to industry-cycle adjustment, falling prices, low capacity utilisation, higher fixed costs and litigation-related bad-debt provisions. Net profit for October–December 2024 was RMB -335 million.

The company’s performance has clearly reversed. After two consecutive loss-making years, with RMB -124 million in 2023 and RMB -508 million in 2024, attributable net profit turned positive at RMB 228 million in 2025 and accelerated to RMB 378 million in 1H2026. In 2Q2026, revenue was RMB 4.802 billion and attributable net profit RMB 296 million, showing strong sequential and year-on-year improvement. Cathode materials accounted for 99.15% of 1H2026 revenue. Gross margin recovered from 2.95% in 2024 to 7.87% for battery materials in 2025 and approximately 11.2% in 1H2026. Media reports use different descriptions of 2025 profit growth, including +144.93% and “not applicable”; the absolute figures in the annual report should prevail.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

Institutional coverage is limited, at approximately 1–3 analysts. No reliable multi-broker consensus estimates for 2026–2028 revenue, net profit or EPS were identified through public channels. Several forecasts lag materially behind the actual 1H2026 earnings reversal and have low credibility. CITIC Securities’ latest identifiable rating was “Outperform,” with EPS forecasts of RMB 0.03 for 2026E, RMB 0.06 for 2027E and RMB 0.15 for 2028E, updated on 2025-10-13. Its 2026E EPS is materially inconsistent with 1H2026 attributable net profit of RMB 378 million, and the same page labels 2025 EPS of RMB -0.26, which is an old 2024 figure. The data are considered outdated. Huachuang Securities maintained a “Recommend” rating in its 2025-09-13 interim-report review and noted that 2Q profitability turned positive. Investing.com’s consensus page covers only one analyst, with a consensus “Buy” rating and a 12-month average target price of RMB 8.80; the highest and lowest targets are both RMB 8.80, implying approximately -23.81% relative to the share price at that time. The 52-week range was RMB 4.18–11.85. The sample is extremely small and may be stale. Older multi-institution forecasts from Weisaite, updated through 2024-09-24 and now seriously outdated, forecast 2024E/2025E/2026E net profit of RMB 110 million/RMB 325 million/RMB 422 million and EPS of RMB 0.0567/RMB 0.1667/RMB 0.22. A Snowball self-media research department forecast 2026E attributable net profit of RMB 1.25–1.55 billion, 2027E net profit of RMB 2.0–2.5 billion and a target price of RMB 27.3; this is a single, unlicensed source and was not adopted.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

Valuation data are incomplete. A reliable current valuation snapshot could not be obtained because real-time share price, total market capitalisation, dynamic PE (TTM) and PB were unavailable from financial portals whose market-data components are primarily JavaScript-rendered. Indirect information includes Investing.com’s 52-week range of RMB 4.18–11.85 and a Snowball report stating that the share price was approximately RMB 9.67 in February 2026. A rough calculation, for reference only and not an official disclosure, assumes approximately 1.9 billion shares. At RMB 8–10 per share, market capitalisation would be approximately RMB 15–19 billion; against 2025 attributable net profit of RMB 228 million, static PE would be approximately 65–80x. Against annualised 1H2026 net profit of approximately RMB 750 million, forward PE would be approximately 20–25x. Comparable-company and industry PE comparisons and average broker target prices were not obtained. Key uncertainties include missing valuation snapshots, limited and outdated institutional forecasts, unreliable self-media data, unclear data cut-off dates, different media descriptions of 2025 profit growth, and missing comparable-company and industry PE data.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Security Confirmation: 688779.SH Is Minmetals New Energy

Code 688779.SH is listed on the STAR Market of the SSE, and the current stock abbreviation is “Minmetals New Energy.” The full company name is “Minmetals New Energy Materials (Hunan) Co., Ltd.” The company was formerly named “Hunan Changyuan Lico Co., Ltd.” and was formerly abbreviated “Changyuan Lico.” It subsequently changed its name and current abbreviation. Eastmoney F10, the Cailian Press stock page and Shanghai Securities News announcement signatures provide cross-source confirmation. Its principal business is the R&D, production and sale of high-efficiency battery cathode materials, including ternary cathode materials and precursors, LFP, lithium cobalt oxide and spherical nickel. The ultimate controller is China Minmetals Corporation, directly supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. The related convertible bond is “Lico Convertible Bond” (code 118022). Investors should distinguish this issuer from unrelated companies and online misidentifications such as “Shaoneng” or “Tianyi Shangjia.”

4.2 1H2026 Earnings Preview (Voluntary Disclosure, Announcement No. 2026-028)

Disclosed after the market close on 2026-07-23, with the announcement dated 2026-07-24. The company expected 1H2026 attributable net profit of RMB 340–400 million and non-GAAP attributable net profit of RMB 330–390 million. The prior-year period recorded attributable net loss of RMB 26.8265 million and non-GAAP net loss of RMB 52.3451 million, implying a return to profit. The figures were unaudited. The company attributed the improvement to rapid growth in new-energy vehicles and energy storage, coordinated development across power-battery, energy-storage and consumer-electronics materials, strong volume growth, scale benefits and improved operating efficiency.

4.3 1H2026 Report (Formal Disclosure, 2026-08-17)

The interim report was disclosed on 2026-08-17. Revenue was RMB 7.812 billion, up 169.00% YoY; attributable net profit was RMB 378 million (RMB 377,618,935.70), compared with RMB -26.8265 million in the prior-year period; non-GAAP net profit was RMB 373 million; basic EPS was RMB 0.20; and weighted-average ROE was 5.07%. Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB -862 million, versus positive RMB 9.568 million in the prior-year period, a year-on-year reversal to negative and a decline of approximately RMB 957 million. Gross margin was 11.21%, up 3.93 percentage points. In 2Q2026, revenue was RMB 4.802 billion (+220.95% YoY, +59.51% QoQ) and attributable net profit was RMB 296 million (+700.05% YoY, +264.76% QoQ); 1Q2026 attributable net profit was approximately RMB 81 million. No profit-distribution or capitalisation plan was proposed. Eastmoney F10 showed cathode-material revenue of RMB 7.746 billion, or 99.15% of the 2026-06-30 business composition, consistent with the interim report.

4.4 2025 Annual Report and Earnings Flash

The 2025 earnings flash was disclosed in early March 2026, with media confirming that full-year 2025 turned profitable. The 2025 annual report was disclosed on 2026-04-29 and reported attributable net profit of RMB 228,039,645.18. This compares with RMB -507,581,408.45 in 2024 and RMB -124,468,037.90 in 2023. Undistributed profit of the parent company was RMB 442,711,958.77.

4.5 2025 Profit Distribution Plan (Announcement No. 2026-013)

Disclosed on 2026-04-29. Based on total share capital of 1,929,219,344 shares, the company proposed a cash dividend of RMB 0.04137 per share, or RMB 79,811,804.26 in total, equivalent to 35% of 2025 attributable net profit. No bonus shares or capitalisation were proposed. The plan was approved at the annual general meeting on 2026-05-19. The company stated that the plan did not trigger the circumstances under Article 12.9.1(1)(8) of the STAR Market rules that could result in other risk warnings. Average net profit over the latest three fiscal years was RMB -134,669,933.72, reflecting the negative base created by historical losses.

4.6 Three-Year Shareholder-Return Plan and Ex-Dividend Reminder

The “Future Three-Year Shareholder Dividend Return Plan (2025–2027)” was approved by the third extraordinary shareholders’ meeting of 2025 on 2025-12-31. Some market-data pages displayed the abbreviation “XD Minmetals New Energy,” where “XD” denotes ex-dividend and indicates that a cash-dividend ex-date had been implemented. The original announcement and exact ex-dividend date were not captured in this research; investors should refer to the formal equity-distribution implementation announcement.

4.7 Corporate Governance and Management Changes

On 2025-05-13, the company disclosed a reminder concerning the postponement of elections for the board of directors and supervisory board. On 2025-07-16, the second extraordinary shareholders’ meeting of 2025 approved cancellation of the supervisory board, a registered-capital change, amendments to the articles of association and a board election, with Hu Liuquan and others elected to the third board. On 2025-12-16, the company disclosed its expected 2026 recurring related-party transactions, renewal of the accounting firm, completion of certain fund-raising projects and permanent replenishment of working capital with surplus proceeds, appointment of a securities-affairs representative and the convening of the third extraordinary shareholders’ meeting of 2025.

On 2026-07-27, the company announced the resignation of directors, the election of independent and non-independent directors and adjustments to board-specialised committees. Non-independent director Ye Mao and independent director Ma Cheng resigned for personal reasons. Zhang Yuqiang was nominated as a non-independent director candidate and Xin Sen as an independent-director candidate. On 2026-08-12, the first extraordinary shareholders’ meeting of 2026 approved additional expected quotas for 2026 recurring related-party transactions and elected Zhang Yuqiang and Xin Sen as directors. China Minmetals Corporation Limited, Changsha Research Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and Ningbo Chuangyuan Jianhe abstained from voting on the related-party transaction proposal. On 2026-08-14, the company announced that Deputy General Manager Liu Haisong had resigned from the deputy general-manager position due to work reassignment and had been elected as an employee representative director on the same day. He indirectly held 0.1031% of the company through Changsha Changyuan Jinli No. 1 Enterprise Consulting Management Partnership. The company cancelled its supervisory board in 2025 and experienced several director and senior-management changes in 2026. These changes are not operating-related negative events but indicate continuing governance restructuring and relatively frequent personnel changes.

4.8 Related-Party Transactions, External Investment and M&A

On 2025-05-10, the company disclosed progress on establishing a joint venture and related-party transaction. On 2025-12-16, it disclosed expected recurring related-party transactions for 2026, approved by the 2025-12-31 extraordinary shareholders’ meeting. On 2026-08-12, it disclosed additional expected quotas for 2026 recurring related-party transactions. Historical strategic initiatives include a proposed RMB 10.0 billion investment in a high-performance lithium-battery materials industrial base in Fuqing on 2023-05-17, and a cooperation memorandum with Axens on 2023-03-27 for ternary-precursor and cathode-material capacity in Europe, including France. The company is China Minmetals’ new-energy-materials platform and has a closed-loop “mineral resources–cathode materials–battery recycling” chain.

4.9 Convertible Bond “Lico Convertible Bond” (118022)

Announcements were issued on 2025-04-03 and 2025-10-10 regarding conversion results and share changes; on 2025-06-18 regarding the tracking credit rating; and on 2025-09-26 regarding 2025 interest payment. The current conversion price, outstanding non-converted balance and whether downward adjustment or redemption conditions had been triggered were not obtained from the original announcements and require verification against SSE and company disclosures.

4.10 Shareholder Selling, Litigation and Regulatory Inquiries

A shareholder reduction plan was announced on 2025-06-24, followed by an announcement on 2025-10-15 regarding expiry of the plan and the results. Only the existence of the events was confirmed; the specific selling shareholder, number of shares, percentage and average price were not obtained. On 2025-06-21, the company disclosed its response to the SSE’s regulatory inquiry letter concerning the 2024 annual report. The specific inquiry points, including possible impairment, related-party transactions and capacity, were not obtained. On 2025-08-27, the company disclosed progress in litigation initiated by a wholly owned subsidiary; the claim and counterparty were not obtained. On 2025-04-19, the company disclosed provisions for asset impairment for 2024, related to the large loss recorded that year.

4.11 Operating Data and Timeliness

In 1Q2025, disclosed on 2025-04-19, revenue was RMB 1.408 billion, up 29.46% YoY, and attributable net loss was RMB 63.8705 million, compared with attributable net profit of RMB 3.1919 million in the prior-year period. Eastmoney F10 labels the company under power equipment, battery chemicals, Hunan stocks, 2026 interim-report turnaround, Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, SSE 380, margin financing and securities lending, convertible-bond underlying securities, solid-state batteries, power-battery recycling, low-altitude economy, central SOE reform and lithium-battery concepts. In solid-state batteries, the company focuses on high-nickel cathodes and lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes for solid-state batteries with high interfacial flux; some products have accumulated shipments at the hundred-kilogram scale. The latest verifiable hard data in this research are from the 1H2026 report disclosed on 2026-08-17. Some market and information pages were updated through 2026-08-27. If the report is published after the end of August 2026, announcements from September 2026 onward should be added. The four items concerning shareholder reductions, subsidiary litigation, the annual-report inquiry letter and the Lico Convertible Bond conversion price/interest details were confirmed only at the event or title level and should be cited cautiously.

5. Share-Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the September 11, 2026 close, Minmetals New Energy was priced at RMB 7.44, down 3.00%, underperforming battery chemicals, batteries and power equipment. The price was below MA5, MA10 and MA20, forming a bearish alignment. JFZTO showed MACD lines below zero, RSI of 19.20 and a KD D value of 17.00, while Eastmoney showed no obvious signal in its main indicators. Five-day main-fund net outflow was approximately RMB 28.7655 million, and the stock declined on reduced volume. The margin-financing and securities-lending difference was RMB 1.001 billion, or 6.98% of free float, significantly above the market average. The top ten free-float shareholders held 51.01%, primarily comprising Minmetals-related state-owned entities, investment partnerships and individuals. Public-fund ownership was very low. Bollinger-band values were unavailable, and 52-week low data differed significantly among sources.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future performance.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher subjective weight, approximately 60%; heuristic rather than statistical probability): The share price fluctuates within RMB 7.30–7.76, with turnover remaining low at around RMB 132 million. Conditions include no new catalyst, stable battery-chemical and battery sectors and no significant volume expansion. Bearish moving averages and oversold readings would coexist in a tug-of-war.
• Weak downside (medium subjective weight): A decisive break below RMB 7.30–7.45 with continued low turnover would point toward RMB 6.60–7.00. A break below RMB 7.00 could open room toward the RMB 5.92–6.23 range reported by some sources. Triggers include continued main-fund outflows, sector weakness or further deleveraging.
• Stronger rebound (low subjective weight): A move above RMB 7.76 accompanied by volume expansion would be the first sign of short-term stabilisation. The next target would be RMB 7.76–8.00, while a move to RMB 8.60–8.70 would require support from both the sector and trading volume. Triggers include daily turnover recovering from RMB 132 million to approximately RMB 200 million, sector strengthening or a clear catalyst.

③ Funding and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, turnover was 0.92% and RMB 132 million, versus 0.57% and RMB 83 million on September 10. The 17.8 million shares traded represented 62% of the 65-day average volume of 28.79 million shares. Based on RMB 7.44 per share, normal turnover would be approximately RMB 200 million. The order-book ratio was -22.64% and the order difference -769, with sparse five-level orders. The thin order book means large orders can cause slippage. The margin-financing and securities-lending difference was RMB 1.001 billion, or 6.98% of free float, versus a market average of 3.95%; the financing balance was approximately RMB 1.008 billion. This concentration of leveraged capital may amplify volatility.

Shareholder data as of 2026-06-30, disclosed on 2026-08-18, were already approximately two and a half months old. There were 43,945 shareholder accounts, and the top ten free-float shareholders held 984 million shares, or 51.01% of the free float. Minmetals-related central and local SOEs accounted for approximately 34.3%; investment partnerships and individuals made up most of the remainder. Public funds held only 0.14% of the free float under Eastmoney’s 1H2026 basis. This ownership structure indicates limited support from stable institutional buyers. Northbound data were inconsistent, so no specific holding figure is adopted.

If daily turnover expands from approximately RMB 132 million to approximately RMB 200 million, corresponding to the 65-day average volume of approximately 28.79 million shares, this may indicate fund participation. Conversely, continued turnover below RMB 100 million would suggest a higher probability of continued weakness. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information.

④ Points to Monitor

• Key levels: short-term resistance at RMB 7.60–7.70, second resistance at RMB 7.76–8.00, strong resistance at RMB 8.60–8.70, first support at RMB 7.30–7.45 and strong support at RMB 6.60–7.00.
• Volume confirmation: monitor whether daily turnover expands from approximately RMB 132 million to approximately RMB 200 million; turnover below RMB 100 million would suggest continued weakness.
• Funding: five-day main-fund net outflow was approximately RMB 28.7655 million; the margin-financing and securities-lending difference represented 6.98% of the free float, above the 3.95% market average.
• These are monitoring ideas only, not trading instructions. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risk.

The above scenarios are based on September 11, 2026 closing data and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term prices may also be affected by news, capital flows and broader market conditions. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations. This does not constitute a guarantee of future performance or a buy/sell recommendation. Investors should make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear their own investment risk.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Overview

The lithium-battery cathode-materials industry is driven by technological progress, resource supply and policy. Downstream applications include electric vehicles, energy storage and consumer electronics. Route differentiation intensified in 2025: LFP shipments reached 3.87 million tonnes, up 58%, accounting for 77.4% of cathode-material shipments according to EVTank as cited by Eastmoney’s core-concept page. This is a secondary citation and was not independently verified. Ternary materials are evolving toward ultra-high nickel, single-crystal structures and high voltage, while also being developed for solid-state batteries. According to SMM data cited in the rating report, China’s LFP capacity was approximately 6.88 million tonnes and output approximately 3.79 million tonnes in 2025.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Route differentiation: LFP shipments reached 3.87 million tonnes in 2025, up 58%, or 77.4% of cathode-material shipments. Ternary materials are evolving toward ultra-high nickel, single-crystal and high-voltage products, with solid-state applications under development.
• LFP capacity and output: Approximately 6.88 million tonnes of national capacity and 3.79 million tonnes of output in 2025, according to SMM as cited by the rating report.
• Company market position: The company ranked among the top two domestic ternary-cathode suppliers by shipments from 2016 to 2019. Its ternary market share was approximately 9% and ranked among the top four in 2020–2021; it was approximately 10% and ranked fourth in the first three quarters of 2022. The 2025 annual report stated that ternary shipments remained among the market leaders but did not provide a specific percentage.
• Competitive pressure: Cathode-material companies have weak bargaining power against battery manufacturers. Early entrants have richer product ranges and advantages in quality and performance, while the company, as a later entrant, may face continuing margin pressure.
• The 2025 rankings and market-share differences between Minmetals New Energy, Ronbay Technology, Easpring Technology, XTC New Energy and Ronbay New Materials were not cross-verified against authoritative sources and remain to be supplemented.
• Product positioning descriptions for competitors came from general public information. Before final publication, market-share comparisons should be supplemented with each company’s annual report or GGII annual rankings.

6.3 Main Competitors

The company operates in the midstream, low-margin cathode-materials processing segment, with ternary materials and LFP as dual growth engines. Key ternary comparables include Ronbay Technology, a high-nickel leader; Easpring Technology, with a high overseas-customer share; XTC New Energy, with lithium cobalt oxide and ternary materials; Ronbay New Materials, focused on single-crystal products; and Bamo Technology, whose resource-plus-cathode vertical integration is most comparable to Minmetals’ model. Hunan Yuneng, Dynanonic and Wanrun New Energy are the main LFP comparables. Minmetals New Energy’s differentiated advantages come from China Minmetals’ internal nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium resources, its resources–precursors–cathodes–recycling integration and its central-SOE background. Its weaknesses include low overseas revenue, high customer concentration and low capacity utilisation. The 2025 relative rankings and market-share differences versus Ronbay, Easpring, XTC and Ronbay New Materials remain to be supplemented with authoritative data.

7. Risk Factors

• High customer-concentration risk: The top five customers accounted for 76.66% of 2025 sales. Historical sales to CATL and its subsidiaries represented 58.43%, 38.20% and 45.52% in 2019–2021. The company explicitly disclosed the risk that CATL could use its industry position to compress the issuer’s profit margin. A major reduction in orders or a switch to other suppliers by any core customer could materially affect revenue and profit.
• Raw-material price and cost-pass-through risk: Direct materials account for more than 90% of cost, making the company a raw-material price taker. The average lithium carbonate purchase price fell from RMB 179,000/tonne in 2023 to RMB 68,800/tonne in 2024, contributing to gross margin falling to 2.95% and an attributable net loss of RMB 508 million. If nickel, cobalt or lithium prices again decline unilaterally or fluctuate sharply, the company may be unable to pass costs through to customers, pressuring margins and inventory value.
• Receivables and working-capital risk: Receivables were RMB 4.919 billion at end-1Q2026, 1.63x quarterly revenue, with the top five customers accounting for approximately 80%. Operating cash flow in 1H2026 was RMB -862 million, versus RMB 9.568 million positive in the prior-year period. Slower collections or deteriorating customer credit could lead to bad-debt provisions and liquidity pressure.
• Profit-quality and deferred-tax risk: The company has stated that deferred-tax expenses materially affect net profit. 2025 attributable net profit of RMB 228 million included non-operating tax effects, while non-GAAP attributable net profit was RMB 219 million. Investors should focus on non-GAAP profit and operating cash flow rather than extrapolating attributable net profit mechanically.
• Low utilisation and expansion-absorption risk: Cathode-material capacity utilisation was approximately 63% in 2025. Expansion projects with total budgets of approximately RMB 4.674 billion could increase depreciation and fixed costs if downstream demand grows more slowly than capacity.
• Supplier concentration and group-related-party risk: The top five suppliers accounted for 59.71% in 2025. The company relies on China Minmetals for resource support and participates in upstream investments and long-term contracts. Related-party transaction pricing and supply stability require continued monitoring.
• Limited coverage and distorted expectations: Institutional coverage is limited to approximately 1–3 analysts, and no reliable multi-broker consensus exists. CITIC Securities’ 2026E EPS forecast of RMB 0.03 is materially inconsistent with 1H2026 actual profit. Investing.com covers only one analyst. Snowball self-media forecasts of RMB 1.25–1.55 billion 2026E net profit and a RMB 27.3 target price are not reliable and include unverified acquisition, investment and order claims.
• Weak technical and funding conditions: As of September 11, the share price was below MA5, MA10 and MA20. Five-day main-fund net outflow was approximately RMB 28.7655 million, and the stock declined on reduced volume. A decisive break below RMB 7.30–7.45 could lead toward RMB 6.60–7.00.
• Leverage and ownership-structure risk: The margin-financing and securities-lending difference was RMB 1.001 billion, or 6.98% of free float, well above the 3.95% market average. Concentrated leveraged funds may amplify volatility. The top ten free-float shareholders held 51.01%, while public-fund ownership was only 0.14%, leaving limited stable institutional support.
• Unverified information and data gaps: Specific details of the shareholder reduction, regulatory inquiry, subsidiary litigation, convertible-bond conversion price, outstanding balance, redemption or downward-adjustment triggers and northbound holdings were not independently verified. The “XD Minmetals New Energy” ex-dividend indication came from a market-data page rather than the original equity-distribution implementation announcement. Investors face the risk of incomplete information.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

From a growth perspective, the company has passed through the 2024 earnings trough and entered a profit-recovery phase. The main supports are volume and scale, product-mix upgrades and the marginal contribution of overseas high-margin orders. Cathode-material sales increased by more than 60% in 2025, revenue grew 169% YoY in 1H2026 and capacity utilisation of approximately 63% in 2025 still leaves room for fixed-cost dilution. The company has entered customer introduction or tonne-scale shipment stages for all-solid-state high-nickel cathodes, lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes and sodium-ion cathodes. Its ternary products are moving toward ultra-high nickel, single-crystal and high-voltage specifications, while Jinchih Energy can mass-produce Ni60-70, Ni80, Ni90+ and solid-state precursors, all used internally. Overseas gross margin reached 20.89% in 1H2026, well above domestic margin, although overseas revenue was only 2.31%. China Minmetals’ resource support and the resources–precursors–cathodes–recycling chain remain important differentiators versus pure processors.

However, the sustainability of the earnings improvement remains constrained. Direct materials account for more than 90% of cost, so profitability is fundamentally a function of metal prices and processing fees. The company has limited pricing power. Customer and supplier concentration are both high, at 76.66% and 59.71% for the top five in 2025. The risk of CATL compressing the company’s profit margin has been explicitly disclosed. Receivables of RMB 4.919 billion at end-1Q2026, equivalent to 1.63x quarterly revenue, demonstrate the working-capital burden. Capacity utilisation remains low, while expansion projects with budgets of approximately RMB 4.674 billion could add depreciation pressure. Operating cash flow of RMB -862 million in 1H2026, versus RMB 9.568 million positive in the prior-year period, also contrasts with reported accounting profit.

Valuation and expectations should be approached cautiously. Institutional coverage is limited, and no reliable multi-broker consensus exists. CITIC Securities’ 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS forecasts of RMB 0.03/RMB 0.06/RMB 0.15, updated on 2025-10-13, materially lag 1H2026 actual performance. Investing.com covers only one analyst. Snowball self-media forecasts of RMB 1.25–1.55 billion 2026E net profit and a RMB 27.3 target price are unsupported by authoritative disclosures and should not be adopted. Based on the September 11, 2026 closing price of RMB 7.44 and market capitalisation of RMB 14.353 billion, static PE was 62.94x, TTM PE 22.69x, annualised forward PE 19.01x and PB 1.96x. The wide difference between static and forward valuation reflects the company’s position at the early stage of an earnings reversal. Overall, the company is in a phase where the earnings reversal has been confirmed, structural improvement is ongoing and its weak bargaining position in the industry chain has not fundamentally changed. Key variables to monitor are nickel, cobalt and lithium prices, the pace of capacity-utilisation improvement, overseas revenue growth and the alignment between receivables and operating cash flow.

Data Sources

• 688779 Minmetals New Energy - Core Concepts
• Minmetals New Energy Company Information - Minmetals New Energy Company Information
• Minmetals New Energy (688779.SH) Core Concepts - PC_HSF10
• 688779 Minmetals New Energy
• Minmetals New Energy (688779) - FinScope
• SH.688779 XD Minmetals New Energy - A-Share Real-Time Quote
• Minmetals New Energy (688779.SH) - Quick Quote
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) - Company Information
• Minmetals New Energy (sh688779)
• Minmetals New Energy Returned to Profit in 2025
• China Minmetals’ Changyuan Lico Listed on the STAR Market
• China Minmetals’ Changyuan Lico Successfully Listed on the STAR Market
• Securities Information - Minmetals New Energy
• China Minmetals’ Changyuan Lico Successfully Listed on the STAR Market
• China Securities Journal - Minmetals New Energy Materials (Hunan) Co., Ltd.
• IPO Issuance Results Announcement
• Company Market Data
• Minmetals New Energy - Pricing Pressure from Leading Enterprises
• Minmetals New Energy 2025 ESG Report
• Minmetals New Energy
• Minmetals New Energy - Business Overview
• Minmetals New Energy Materials (Hunan) Co., Ltd.
• Minmetals New Energy 2025 Annual Report
• 2025 Quality and Efficiency Improvement and Return Enhancement Assessment Report
• Minmetals New Energy 2025 Interim Report
• Minmetals New Energy: 2026 Tracking Rating Report
• Minmetals New Energy Can Obtain Group Nickel, Cobalt, Manganese and Lithium Resources
• Research Visit to Minmetals New Energy
• Research Visit to Minmetals New Energy
• Building a Global New-Energy-Materials Leader
• Deep Research: Ternary Cathode Leader
• Product Diversification and Integrated Production
• Customer-Concentration Risk Q&A
• Top-Five Customer Sales Accounted for 76.66%
• Direct Materials Accounted for More Than 90% of Cost
• Historical Customer Concentration
• Investor Q&A
• Convertible-Bond Prospectus
• 2025 Annual Report Summary
• Top Five Receivables Customers Accounted for 80%
• 2025 Annual Report Summary
• 2024 Annual Report
• 2024 Loss Expanded to RMB 508 Million
• SSE Regulatory Inquiry Response
• 2025 Annual Profit Distribution Plan
• 1H2026 Profit of RMB 378 Million
• Investing.com Consensus Estimates
• Snowball Research Report
• CITIC Securities Research Report
• SSE Company Information
• MarketWatch 688779
• JFZTO 7.44 -3.00%
• Eastmoney Latest Quote
• TradingView Technical Rating
• Eastmoney Qian Gu Qian Ping
• Securities Star Main-Fund Flow
• Eastmoney Capital Flow
• Shareholder Structure

This report was automatically researched, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. The information is current through the September 11, 2026 close, the latest trading day visible in the research notes, and may differ in timeliness across sources. Specific data should be verified against formal company announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risk.