Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited) (00780)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Online Travel Platform (OTA) and Hotel Management　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　Data as of the Hong Kong market close on September 11, 2026; reporting currency is Hong Kong dollars (HKD). September 13, 2026 was a Sunday, and the Hong Kong market was closed.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Tongcheng Travel (00780) reported revenue of RMB 19.396 billion in 2025, up 11.9% year on year; profit attributable to equity holders of the Company was RMB 2.3712 billion, up 20.1%, while adjusted net profit was RMB 3.4033 billion, up 22.2%, indicating that the core OTA platform retains its ability to generate profitable growth. However, revenue growth slowed to 6.8% in the second quarter of 2026, while profit attributable to shareholders declined 1.5% year on year. Revenue and profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2026 increased 10.5% and 7.7%, respectively. Operating resilience remains intact, but growth momentum has cooled from 2025.

Core online travel platform revenue was RMB 8.7941 billion in the first half of 2026, up 12.7% year on year. Accommodation reservation revenue increased 11.1%, transportation ticketing revenue grew only 2.1%, and other core business revenue increased 46.3%; tourism business revenue was RMB 1.1987 billion, down approximately 3.8% year on year. Core OTA business accounted for approximately 84.9% of total revenue in 2025, while revenue from vacation and offline tourism businesses declined. This reflects the Company’s efforts to control fulfillment and operating risks by reducing prepaid and buyout-type businesses, but also makes balancing business restructuring and growth a key priority going forward.

The Company completed the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management on October 16, 2025, strengthening its capabilities in hotel management and mid-to-high-end and luxury hotel brands. More recently, its wholly owned subsidiary eLong, Inc. completed the acquisition of approximately 88.74% of the shares of Dida Chuxing, creating new opportunities for external expansion and synergies. However, Dida Chuxing’s public float declined to approximately 11.26%, below the 25% minimum public-float requirement under the Hong Kong Listing Rules. Uncertainty therefore remains regarding listing compliance, capital operations and integration execution.

As of September 11, 2026, the share price closed at HKD 10.57, close to the 52-week low of HKD 10.53 and approximately 58.4% below the 52-week high of HKD 25.42. MA5, MA10 and MA20 were approximately HKD 11.08, HKD 11.43 and HKD 12.51, respectively, forming a bearish alignment. RSI14 was approximately 24 and close to the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential for a short-term oversold rebound. However, the volume-backed rebound on September 4 failed to continue. Short selling on September 11 amounted to approximately HKD 29.09 million, representing approximately 26.24% of turnover, and technical indicators do not yet show a trend reversal. The current dynamic P/E or TTM P/E is approximately 8.8x to 9.0x. Valuation is low, but the market continues to reflect concerns over slowing accommodation growth, pressure on transportation ticketing, weak tourism operations and post-acquisition integration.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Core online travel platform business (Core OTA): Includes accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, online advertising, hotel management, tourist attraction tickets and other value-added services, as well as ancillary services such as insurance, airport transfers and membership services. Revenue was RMB 16.4715 billion in 2025, up 16.0% year on year, accounting for approximately 84.9% of total Company revenue.
• Accommodation reservation services: Revenue was RMB 5.4508 billion in 2025, up 16.8% year on year. Revenue is generally recognized net on a commission and service-fee basis. Certain businesses that purchase hotel room nights in advance and assume inventory risk may recognize revenue on a gross basis.
• Transportation ticketing services: Includes air tickets, train tickets and other transportation products. Revenue was RMB 7.9254 billion in 2025, up 9.6% year on year. The Company primarily earns commissions and value-added service fees from airlines, railways and other transportation providers and generally does not assume ticket inventory risk.
• Other core OTA and related businesses: Revenue was RMB 3.0952 billion in 2025, up 34.4% year on year, including online advertising, attraction tickets, insurance, airport transfers, membership services and other ancillary services.
• Vacation and offline tourism business (Tourism): Includes offline travel agencies, package tours, independent travel, tourist attraction operations, attraction tickets and integrated tourism services. Revenue was RMB 2.9245 billion in 2025, down 6.9% year on year. The Company explained that this was partly due to the strategic reduction of prepaid and buyout-type businesses to lower operating risks.
• Hotel management and technology services: Provides management and technology support to hotel operators through hotel management platforms, hotel brands and PMS/SaaS services. The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management was completed on October 16, 2025, adding mid-to-high-end and luxury hotel brands and management capabilities.

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

Tongcheng Travel operates in the midstream-to-downstream platform services segment of the tourism value chain. Upstream, it connects airlines, railways, hotels, tourist attractions, travel agencies and other tourism service providers. Midstream, it matches supply and demand through traffic distribution, search, transactions, payments, customer service and technology systems. Downstream, it connects mass-market leisure travelers, corporate customers and advertisers. It also extends upstream toward tourism resources through hotel management, offline travel agencies and tourist attraction operations.

• Upstream resources procured or connected by the Company include airlines, railways and other transportation operators, hotel groups, independent hotels and accommodation providers, tourist attractions and destination operators, travel agencies and local operators, tourism product suppliers, and payment, cloud-computing, server and marketing service providers.
• Transportation ticketing primarily adopts an agency model and generally does not assume ticket inventory or cancellation risk. Most hotel businesses adopt commission or service-fee models, although hotel room buyouts create inventory and pricing risks. Vacation, attraction and offline travel-agency businesses have relatively higher fulfillment and operating costs.
• Core transportation resources such as airlines and railways have relatively high standardization and concentration. The Company must connect to major suppliers’ systems and has limited control over related costs and resource prices. Hotel supply is relatively fragmented, allowing the Company to strengthen bargaining power through user traffic, order scale and technology services. However, luxury hotels, popular attractions and peak-season resources may still possess considerable bargaining power.
• The 2023 annual report disclosed that the largest supplier accounted for 22.1% of total purchases and the five largest suppliers accounted for 31.8%. This data was as of December 31, 2023 and was not cross-checked against comparable data from the 2025 annual report in the materials reviewed. It therefore cannot be used to determine whether concentration improved or deteriorated in 2025.
• The hotel management platform and acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management extend the Company from a pure distributor of tourism resources toward partial ownership and operation of upstream resources, helping strengthen control over hotel supply.
• Downstream customers include individual leisure and business travelers; hotel, airline and attraction service providers; brands and merchants purchasing advertising; hotel operators using hotel management and PMS/SaaS services; and consumers purchasing vacation products through offline travel agencies.
• The Company is not a typical manufacturer relying on sales to a small number of large customers. Instead, it generates transactions through a large number of individual users and collects commissions, service fees or advertising fees from hotels, airlines, attractions and other tourism service providers. User traffic, order conversion, cross-selling and repurchase frequency are key downstream assets.
• The 2023 annual report disclosed that the largest customer accounted for 18.3% of total sales and the five largest customers accounted for 33.6%. Directors including James Liang and Jiang Hao had interests in the largest customer, while Tencent had an interest in one of the five largest customers. That customer accounted for approximately 3.0% of total Company sales.
• The above customer concentration figures were based on the annual-report position as of December 31, 2023. They may have been affected by related parties and platform cooperation arrangements and should not be interpreted simply as concentration among individual end consumers. Comparable 2025 data was not obtained for cross-verification; the latest annual report should prevail.
• Structurally, platforms compete across traffic entrances, hotel and transportation supply, pricing and promotions, fulfillment and after-sales service, membership and cross-selling. Mass-market users are price-sensitive, creating customer-acquisition and marketing pressure, while suppliers of luxury hotels, popular attractions and peak-season resources have some bargaining power over platforms.
• As of December 31, 2023, the gross carrying amount of trade receivables was RMB 1.3417 billion and the net amount was RMB 818.1 million. Based on 2023 revenue of RMB 11.8962 billion, these represented approximately 11.3% and 6.9% of revenue, respectively; the net amount was approximately 52.3% of 2023 net profit of RMB 1.5656 billion. The Company generally grants customers a 30-day credit period. Trade receivables overdue by more than six months amounted to RMB 132.6 million. Contract liabilities at the end of 2023 were RMB 143.5 million, mainly from electronic coupon programs and hotel management services. Overall, transportation ticketing and a large portion of online reservation activity settle relatively quickly and are asset-light, although advertising, hotel management, travel agency and B2B cooperation can generate receivables. Hotel buyouts, vacation products and attraction operations increase prepayment, inventory and fulfillment risks.
• Supplier concentration: As of December 31, 2023, the largest supplier accounted for 22.1% of total purchases and the five largest suppliers accounted for 31.8%. Customer concentration: As of December 31, 2023, the largest customer accounted for 18.3% of total sales and the five largest customers accounted for 33.6%. All figures were disclosed in the 2023 annual report and were not cross-checked against comparable 2025 data. Customer figures may also include related-party and platform cooperation arrangements; the latest annual report should prevail.

Tongcheng Travel operates in the midstream-to-downstream platform services segment of the tourism value chain. It is neither an upstream resource monopolist nor simply a high-margin brand owner. Profit is primarily driven by traffic acquisition, user scale, transaction conversion, commission rates, cross-selling and operating efficiency. Further improvement depends on higher mass-market user ARPU and cross-selling, expansion of hotel management and luxury brands, international growth, lower marketing expense ratios, and reduced exposure to low-margin, high-fulfillment-risk vacation buyout businesses. Gross margin was approximately 66.3% in 2025, still below the 2021–2023 level when online ticketing and accommodation commissions accounted for a greater share of the business. One reason is that the expansion of offline travel agencies, attraction operations and hotel-related businesses increased fulfillment, procurement and operating costs.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Financial data is primarily denominated in renminbi (RMB); share prices, target prices, market capitalization and valuation multiples are denominated in Hong Kong dollars (HKD). Net profit for the second quarter and first half of 2026 uses the profit-attributable-to-equity-holders-of-the-Company definition. Profit for the second quarter of 2026 was RMB 633.7 million, down 1.3% year on year; profit for the first half of 2026 was RMB 1,418.0 million, up 7.4% year on year.

Revenue, profit attributable to shareholders and adjusted net profit increased 10.5%, 7.7% and 14.6%, respectively, year on year in the first half of 2026, demonstrating continued operating resilience. However, revenue growth slowed to 6.8% in the second quarter and profit attributable to shareholders declined 1.5% year on year, indicating a cooling in growth. Adjusted net profit was RMB 1,792.0 million in the first half of 2026, up 14.6% year on year, while adjusted net margin rose from 17.3% in the same period of 2025 to 17.9%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 2,660.7 million, up 13.5% year on year. By segment, core online travel platform revenue was RMB 8,794.1 million, up 12.7% year on year. Accommodation reservation revenue was RMB 2,845.1 million, up 11.1%; transportation ticketing revenue was RMB 3,962.2 million, up 2.1%; and other business revenue was RMB 1,986.8 million, up 46.3%. Tourism business revenue was RMB 1,198.7 million, down approximately 3.8% year on year.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Amounts in the Et Net consensus forecasts and MarketScreener consensus forecasts are denominated in millions of renminbi (RMB), while EPS is denominated in RMB. Et Net did not disclose consensus revenue forecasts or year-on-year net profit growth in its overview. MarketScreener did not provide the EPS figures listed in this report. Et Net’s net profit forecast ranges are RMB 2,980.0 million to RMB 3,815.0 million for 2026, RMB 3,216.0 million to RMB 4,247.0 million for 2027, and RMB 3,608.0 million to RMB 4,626.0 million for 2028. Forecast definitions, update dates and samples may differ across platforms and cannot simply be combined into a single consensus. None represents formal Company guidance.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

As of September 11, 2026, public quotations indicated a share price of approximately HKD 10.57 to HKD 11.02 and market capitalization of approximately HKD 25.0 billion to HKD 25.9 billion. Differences in timing exist across platforms. Investing.com showed a share price of approximately HKD 10.57 and market capitalization of approximately HKD 25.0 billion; AASTOCKS showed a share price of HKD 11.02, market capitalization of approximately HKD 25.945 billion and P/E of approximately 9.64x on September 9, 2026; and LiXinger showed a share price of HKD 10.81, P/E of approximately 8.98x and P/B of approximately 0.93x. Overall, TTM P/E was approximately 8.9x to 9.6x and P/B approximately 0.9x to 1.1x. Based on Et Net’s 2026 consensus EPS of approximately RMB 1.35 to RMB 1.42 and a rough conversion using the current share price, forward P/E for 2026 was approximately 7.5x to 8.5x. This estimate is affected by the RMB/HKD exchange rate, forecast definitions and EPS definitions. Based on MarketScreener forecasts, forecast P/E was approximately 7.7x to 7.9x using 2026 net profit of RMB 3,262 million and approximately 6.8x to 7.0x using 2027 net profit of RMB 3,711 million. Since market capitalization and forecast net profit came from different sources, these calculations are only cross-check estimates. Institutional target prices generally ranged from HKD 16.50 to HKD 30.00. Several institutions lowered their targets after the second-quarter results, reflecting concerns over slower accommodation growth, pressure on transportation ticketing, weak tourism demand and post-acquisition integration. Overall, earnings are still expected to grow, but the current valuation is closer to a low-valuation, still-growing but catalyst-light profile.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 August 2026 Share Movement Monthly Return: Share Capital Broadly Stable

Tongcheng Travel disclosed on September 3, 2026 its monthly return on movements in securities for the month ended August 31, 2026. The Company’s authorized registered ordinary share capital was 3,000,000,000 shares with a par value of US$0.0005 per share, representing authorized registered share capital of US$1,500,000. As of August 31, 2026, approximately 2,354,315,962 ordinary shares had been issued and treasury shares stood at 0. No new shares were issued, repurchased or cancelled during August 2026, and the Company confirmed that it continued to comply with the minimum public-float requirement under the Hong Kong Main Board Listing Rules. A total of 43,500 share options under the 2022 Share Option Scheme lapsed during the month, but no new shares were issued upon the exercise of options. Funds raised from option exercises during the month were HKD 0. The announcement was titled “Monthly Return of Equity Issuer on Movements in Securities for the month ended 31 August 2026.” Source: HKEXnews, https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?category=0&market=SEHK&stockId=205645

4.2 BlackRock Reported an Interest Change in Early September, with Its Stake Falling to Approximately 4.73%

Equity disclosure data from Et Net indicated that BlackRock, Inc. increased its long position by approximately 1,708,474 shares on September 3, 2026 and reduced its long position by approximately 6,552,314 shares on September 4, 2026. Following the September 4 disclosure, BlackRock held approximately 111,306,694 long shares, representing approximately 4.73% of issued share capital, and approximately 4,607,600 short shares, representing approximately 0.20%. The data indicated that its shareholding had fallen below the 5% material-disclosure threshold. Because the filing date for Hong Kong interest disclosures may differ from the actual transaction date, and because some changes may involve financial derivatives or stock-lending arrangements, the disclosure should not be interpreted simply as a one-directional reduction in spot holdings. Source: Et Net, https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/stocks/realtime/quote_ca_sdi.php?code=780&utm_source=openai

4.3 Other Major Shareholders: Limited New Direct Disclosures in September

Public equity disclosure data showed that institutions including JPMorgan Chase and T. Rowe Price had made significant holding changes during the first half of 2026. As of the date of this review, the clearest and most recent direct shareholder disclosure in September 2026 was the above-mentioned change in BlackRock’s interests. No new material interest disclosure by the Company’s founders or directors in September was identified. Source: Et Net, https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/stocks/realtime/quote_ca_sdi.php?code=780&utm_source=openai

4.4 No New Share Buyback Announcement Identified as of September 13, 2026

As of September 13, 2026, no announcement was identified indicating that Tongcheng Travel had announced or implemented a share buyback in September 2026. The share movement monthly return as of August 31, 2026 showed no share repurchases or cancellations during August. The HKEX announcement search results for 00780 showed that the Company announcement visible in September 2026 was the share movement monthly return for the month ended August 31, with no new share buyback announcement. Accordingly, there were no actual buybacks as of August 31, 2026, and no new announcement on the execution of a buyback mandate or implementation of a buyback had been identified as of September 13, 2026. This conclusion is based on announcement searches and does not exclude subsequent supplemental announcements or website delays. Source: HKEXnews, https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?category=0&market=SEHK&stockId=205645

4.5 Acquisition of Dida Chuxing Completed, Public Float Declined to Approximately 11.26%

A major recent strategic development for Tongcheng Travel was its acquisition of Dida Chuxing (HKEX: 02559) through its wholly owned subsidiary eLong, Inc. On June 29, 2026, Tongcheng Travel and related parties announced a voluntary conditional general cash offer. The offer price was HKD 1.3875 per share. On August 5, 2026, the offer became unconditional in all respects. The offer closed on August 21, 2026, with valid acceptances for 910,755,954 shares, representing approximately 88.74% of Dida Chuxing’s issued share capital. Following completion, Dida Chuxing’s public float declined to approximately 11.26%, below the 25% minimum public-float requirement under the Hong Kong Listing Rules. Dida Chuxing stated that it aimed to maintain relative independence in branding and operations while continuing to explore synergies in ground transportation, user services and technology. Dida Chuxing must restore the minimum public float by February 20, 2028 or it may face the risk of delisting by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The direct acquisition entity was eLong, Inc., a subsidiary of Tongcheng Travel, but the transaction announcement identified 00780 as the ultimate parent of the offeror. The transaction therefore represents a significant external expansion and related capital operation for 00780. Sources: HKEXnews, https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?category=0&market=SEHK&stockId=205645; Dida Chuxing investor relations website, https://www.didachuxing.com/ir/sc/ir_ann.php

4.6 2026 Interim Results Announcement Disclosed, but Specific Financial Data Is Not Included in This Report

Tongcheng Travel disclosed on August 24, 2026 its interim results announcement for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The HKEX announcement search page confirmed the publication date and title. This report does not provide verified specific amounts for revenue, net profit or adjusted net profit. In addition, some secondary reports appeared to mix or inconsistently state the currency and amounts of the results. Specific financial data should therefore be based on the original formal interim results announcement issued by the Company. Source: HKEXnews, https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?category=0&market=SEHK&stockId=205645

4.7 No Announcement on Material Regulatory Penalties or Similar Matters Identified as of September 13, 2026

As of September 13, 2026, no HKEX announcement was identified concerning material regulatory penalties, suspension or resumption of trading, material litigation or policy penalties involving Tongcheng Travel in September 2026. The regulatory matter directly related to the acquisition is that Dida Chuxing’s public float declined to 11.26% following completion, below the 25% minimum public-float requirement. This issue primarily affects Dida Chuxing’s listing compliance status and may increase uncertainty over post-acquisition capital operations, restoration of the public float and maintenance of its listing status. Source: HKEXnews, https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?category=0&market=SEHK&stockId=1000226331&utm_source=openai

4.8 Few New Company-Level Announcements in September; No Earnings Warning or Refinancing Identified

As of September 13, 2026, the principal company announcement disclosed by 00780 in September 2026 was the share movement monthly return for the month ended August 31, 2026. No new earnings warning, share buyback, refinancing or material director change had been identified. No positive or negative earnings warning regarding third-quarter or full-year 2026 results was identified during the same period. Since Hong Kong-listed companies do not necessarily issue quarterly earnings forecasts, the absence of disclosure does not mean that results have not changed.

5. Share Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

Tongcheng Travel (00780) closed at HKD 10.57 on September 11, 2026, close to its 52-week low of HKD 10.53 and approximately 58.4% below its 52-week high of HKD 25.42. It declined from HKD 12.02 on September 4 to HKD 10.57, while MA5, MA10 and MA20 all remained above the share price, forming a bearish MA5<MA10<MA20 alignment. The short-term trend therefore remains weak and downward. RSI14 of approximately 24 indicates a sharp short-term decline and an oversold condition, creating potential for a technical rebound, although oversold conditions do not equal a trend reversal. The share price was close to the lower Bollinger Band of approximately HKD 10.46, making the ability of the HKD 10.46–10.53 area to provide support a key short-term focus. In terms of funds, approximately 84.97 million shares changed hands for approximately HKD 1.0 billion on September 4, but volume subsequently fell to approximately 10–20 million shares. Short selling represented approximately 26.24% of turnover on September 11, indicating relatively active short-side trading. According to the annual-report disclosure as of December 31, 2025, Trip.com Group and related parties held approximately 23.84%, Tencent and its controlled companies approximately 20.26%, T. Rowe Price approximately 7.01% and JPMorgan Chase approximately 1.02%. The simple aggregate of these major shareholder interests was approximately 52.1%, but this was not a complete concentration figure for the ten largest shareholders. The data was also approximately eight and a half months old and should not be treated as the real-time ownership structure on September 11, 2026.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data, historical prices and technical indicators as of September 11, 2026. It does not constitute investment advice or a definitive forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Coming Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Low-level consolidation (relatively higher subjective heuristic weight, approximately 50%–60%; not a statistical probability): Price range approximately HKD 10.50–11.15. Trigger conditions include holding around HKD 10.50–10.53, no sustained significant increase in volume, and no clear systemic decline in Hong Kong technology and tourism stocks. Under this scenario, the share price may fluctuate repeatedly, with technical rebounds capped by MA5 and MA10.
• Further weakness (medium subjective heuristic weight, approximately 30%; not a statistical probability): Price range approximately HKD 10.20–10.50. Trigger conditions include a decisive close below HKD 10.50 accompanied by turnover materially above recent normal levels. If the Hang Seng TECH Index weakens and the short-selling ratio remains elevated, downside pressure may increase. If the HKD 10.30–10.50 area fails to provide support, a new 52-week low may follow.
• Oversold rebound and attempted recovery (low-to-medium subjective heuristic weight, approximately 10%–20%; not a statistical probability): Price range approximately HKD 11.15–11.80. Trigger conditions include retaking HKD 11.00–11.15 with sustained volume expansion. Only a further break through HKD 11.35–11.55 would warrant consideration of a rebound toward HKD 11.75–11.80. A low-volume rebound that fails to hold above MA5 and MA10 would more likely represent technical repair rather than a trend reversal.

③ Funding and Liquidity Background

Recent normal trading volume was approximately 7–20 million shares, with turnover of approximately HKD 70 million to HKD 250 million. On September 4, abnormal volume of approximately 84.97 million shares and turnover of approximately HKD 1.0 billion occurred, after which volume declined to approximately 10–20 million shares. Turnover on September 11 was approximately HKD 111 million and the turnover rate approximately 0.44%, representing a tradable but not especially active level of short-term fund participation. In terms of shareholder concentration, the December 31, 2025 annual report disclosed that Trip.com Group and related parties held approximately 23.84%, Tencent and its controlled companies approximately 20.26%, T. Rowe Price approximately 7.01% and JPMorgan Chase approximately 1.02%. The simple aggregate of these major shareholder interests was approximately 52.1%. This does not equal the complete concentration of the ten largest shareholders, and the data was approximately eight and a half months old as of September 11, 2026. Additional increases, reductions or other ownership changes may have occurred. Public disclosures do not indicate that the Company is fully controlled by a founder family or private-equity shareholders. Strategic and institutional shareholders account for relatively high proportions. However, market disclosures in 2026 showed BlackRock’s long position declining to 4.96%, suggesting that some institutional holdings may have changed; this disclosure cannot be directly added to the annual-report data. The Company is not a low-liquidity small-cap stock, with normal turnover of approximately HKD 100 million. However, the recent rapid decline and rising short-selling ratio indicate substantial directional pressure in short-term trading.

A monitorable volume signal would be sustained daily turnover of approximately HKD 200 million or more during the coming week, combined with a close above HKD 11.10–11.15. This could indicate improved short-term fund participation. Conversely, if a break below HKD 10.50 is accompanied by turnover expanding materially to above HKD 200 million, this would represent a volume-price risk signal for a downside breakout.

④ Points to Monitor (Observation Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Monitor whether HKD 10.50–10.53 holds. This area corresponds to recent lows and the vicinity of the lower Bollinger Band. If it fails, monitor the strong-support area of HKD 10.30–10.50. This is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
• Monitor whether the share price can recover HKD 11.00–11.15, the first confirmation area for whether a short-term rebound can continue. This is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
• Monitor whether the HKD 11.35–11.55 area experiences a volume-backed breakout. Failure to break through may indicate that the rebound remains a weak technical recovery. This is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.
• Monitor whether turnover can remain above approximately HKD 200 million and assess whether the funding picture is improving together with any decline in the short-selling ratio. This is an observation framework, not a trading instruction.

The above scenarios are based on closing data, historical prices and technical indicators as of September 11, 2026. Short-term share prices will also be affected by news flow, fund flows, broader market conditions and other factors. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations. This does not guarantee actual future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Overview

China’s online travel industry has developed a market structure dominated by leading platforms. Competition centers on user traffic and customer-acquisition costs, hotel and transportation supply, pricing and promotions, order fulfillment and after-sales service, membership and cross-selling, luxury hotels, outbound travel and vacation-product supply. The industry is differentiated by traffic entrance, customer segment and consumption scenario. Tongcheng primarily focuses on the mass market, the WeChat ecosystem, non-first-tier cities and transportation ticketing.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Trip.com relies on hotel, air-ticket, business-travel and international-tourism resources and leads in overall scale, high-end supply capabilities, international tourism and brand recognition.
• Tongcheng benefits from Tencent and the WeChat ecosystem and has advantages among mass-market and price-sensitive users, in non-first-tier cities and in transportation ticketing.
• Meituan relies on local-lifestyle traffic and is highly competitive in local hotels, surrounding travel, short-distance tourism and instant-consumption scenarios.
• Fliggy benefits from the Alibaba ecosystem and has advantages among younger users, branded hotels, outbound travel and e-commerce marketing campaigns.
• Douyin relies on content distribution and livestream sales and primarily influences attractions, vacations, hotel packages and tourism marketing.
• Certain broker estimates put the 2024 GMV shares of China’s OTA market at approximately 57% for Trip.com, 15% for Meituan, 13% for Tongcheng, 6% for Fliggy and 4% for Douyin. These are third-party estimates rather than formal market-share disclosures by regulators or companies. Conclusions may vary significantly depending on GMV definitions and whether Meituan’s hotel and travel business, Qunar and short-video transactions are included.

6.3 Major Competitors

Tongcheng Travel competes in a differentiated manner with Trip.com, Meituan, Fliggy and Douyin. Tongcheng centers on WeChat and mass-market traffic, with a focus on non-first-tier cities, transportation ticketing and price-sensitive users. Trip.com is stronger in mid-to-high-end, business and international tourism; Meituan is stronger in local lifestyle and short-distance consumption; Fliggy relies more heavily on the Alibaba e-commerce ecosystem; and Douyin mainly enters hotels, attractions and vacation products through content discovery and livestream conversion. The Company’s relative competitiveness will depend on user scale and traffic monetization, expansion of hotel management and mid-to-high-end supply, international growth, marketing efficiency, and control of low-margin, high-fulfillment-risk businesses.

7. Risk Factors

• Core transportation ticketing growth under pressure: Transportation ticketing revenue increased only 2.1% year on year in the first half of 2026, well below the 12.7% growth of the overall core OTA business. Continued slowdown in transportation demand or related traffic monetization could drag on overall platform revenue growth.
• Risk of slower accommodation growth: Accommodation reservation revenue increased 11.1% year on year in the first half of 2026. Some institutions have lowered earnings forecasts due to slower accommodation growth and weaker second-half revenue expectations. Changes in accommodation commission rates, order conversion and user-acquisition costs could affect earnings growth.
• Vacation and offline tourism businesses continue to carry relatively high fulfillment and operating risks: Tourism revenue declined 6.9% year on year in 2025 and continued to decline by approximately 3.8% year on year in the first half of 2026. These businesses involve offline travel agencies, package tours, attraction operations and integrated tourism services, with relatively high procurement, fulfillment and operating costs. Strategic reductions in prepaid and buyout-type businesses could also limit revenue scale.
• Integration and impairment risks related to the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management: The Company needs to integrate mid-to-high-end and luxury hotel brands, management platforms and PMS/SaaS capabilities. Goodwill impairment in 2025 already limited net-margin improvement. If synergies or profitability improvement fall short of expectations, further pressure may be placed on earnings.
• Listing-compliance and capital-operation uncertainty from the acquisition of Dida Chuxing: Following completion, Dida Chuxing’s public float declined to approximately 11.26%, below the 25% minimum public-float requirement under the Hong Kong Listing Rules. It must restore the minimum public float by February 20, 2028 or face the risk of delisting by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Related arrangements may also increase Tongcheng Travel’s integration, capital-operation and resource-investment pressure.
• Platform competition and higher customer-acquisition costs may compress profits: Tongcheng competes with Trip.com, Meituan, Fliggy and Douyin in traffic entrances, pricing and promotions, hotel and tourism supply, membership and cross-selling. Mass-market users are price-sensitive. Additional marketing investment to maintain traffic and orders could weaken the adjusted net margin.
• Shareholder and funding changes could amplify share-price volatility: Following its disclosure in September 2026, BlackRock held approximately 111,306,694 long shares, representing approximately 4.73% of issued share capital and below the 5% material-disclosure threshold. At the same time, the share price was close to its 52-week low as of September 11, 2026, while short selling rose to approximately 26.24% of turnover. Continued institutional portfolio changes or persistent short-side activity could increase short-term volatility.
• Historical supplier and customer dependence disclosures present risk: As of December 31, 2023, the largest supplier accounted for 22.1% of total purchases and the five largest suppliers accounted for 31.8%; the largest customer accounted for 18.3% of total sales and the five largest customers accounted for 33.6%. These figures relate to an earlier reporting period and have not been cross-checked against comparable 2025 data. Changes involving core suppliers, platform partners or related-party customer arrangements could affect resource access, revenue settlement and business stability.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Tongcheng Travel’s medium-term growth thesis remains primarily centered on its core OTA business, particularly its user coverage of the mass market, the WeChat ecosystem, non-first-tier cities and transportation ticketing scenarios. Cross-selling of accommodation reservations, online advertising, attraction tickets, insurance, airport transfers, membership and other value-added services may also improve user monetization. Core OTA revenue increased 16.0% in 2025, while other core business revenue increased 46.3% in the first half of 2026, indicating continued strong expansion outside transportation. The hotel management platform and acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management provide a foundation for extending the Company toward hotel supply, expanding mid-to-high-end brands and developing management and technology services.

In terms of earnings quality, gross margin recovered from 64.1% in 2024 to 66.3% in 2025, but remained below the 2021–2023 level. This was mainly related to higher procurement, fulfillment and operating costs from offline travel agencies, attraction operations and hotel-related businesses. The Company’s ability to sustain earnings growth will depend on core OTA growth, expansion of accommodation and value-added services, marketing efficiency, integration of the hotel management business, and control of low-margin, high-fulfillment-risk vacation operations. Market forecasts still anticipate net profit growth from 2026 to 2028, but estimates differ materially across institutions. Several institutions lowered their target prices after the second-quarter results, indicating continued disagreement between earnings-growth expectations and near-term catalysts.

In the short term, HKD 10.50–10.53 is the key support area to monitor, while HKD 11.00–11.15 and HKD 11.35–11.55 represent the initial rebound-confirmation and further-recovery resistance areas, respectively. These technical levels should be used only to assess market strength and cannot replace fundamental analysis. Investors should focus on accommodation and transportation ticketing growth, adjustments to loss-making or low-margin tourism businesses, the integration progress of Wanda Hotel Management and Dida Chuxing, and the arrangements for restoring Dida Chuxing’s public float.

Data Sources

• https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0426/2024042601670.pdf
• Tongcheng Travel Reports 2025 Third Quarter Results Tapping Further into Mass Travel Market Yields Solid Growth of Core OTA Business
• Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited - Annual Report 2025 | FinancialFilings
• Tongcheng Travel (HK0780) Latest Developments_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• CHAIRMAN’S STATEMENT
• Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited
• 2024 Outlook: Innovation and Profitability, Dual Drivers of Valuation Recovery
• Listed Company Information Title Search
• Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited - Earnings Release 2026 | FinancialFilings
• Tongcheng Travel Reports Full-Year 2025 Revenue of RMB 19.4 Billion
• 00780 Tongcheng Travel - Free Real-Time Stock Quote - Earnings Forecast - Et Net, Hong Kong News, Finance and Lifestyle Platform
• Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited: Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations | 780 | KYG8918W1069 | MarketScreener
• 00780 Tongcheng Travel - Free Real-Time Stock Quote - Earnings Forecast - Et Net, Hong Kong News, Finance and Lifestyle Platform
• Tongcheng Travel - Results first take: 2Q26 results in line with expectations
• uobkh.com.hk
• [

Goldman Sachs Lowers Tongcheng Travel Target Price to RMB 25.3 and Maintains “Buy” Rating

](https://www.aastocks.com/sc/stocks/news/infocast-news/IC4908869/1)

• CICC: Maintains Outperform Rating on Tongcheng Travel (00780), Target Price HKD 22
• Tongcheng Travel Share Price | 0780 Stock - Investing.com UK
• AASTOCKS.com
• Tongcheng Travel (00780) P/E | Valuation | Fundamentals - LiXinger
• Listed Company Information Title Search
• 00780.HK Tongcheng Travel | TONGCHENGTRAVEL | Company Information - Overview of Changes in Interests - Et Net
• Listed Company Information Title Search
• 00780 - Stock Quotes for Tongcheng Travel Holdings, HKEX:00780 Stock Price, Charting, News - Webull
• Tongcheng Travel (0780) Historical Prices - Investing.com
• Technical Analysis of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (0780)
• Tongcheng Travel (00780) - Individual Stock Overview, Share Price and Market Trend - Tiger Brokers
• TONGCHENGTRAVEL quoted at HK$12.02, up 6.8% - Free Real Time Stock Quote - Economics News - Et Net
• Short Selling Records - Eastmoney

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current as of the Hong Kong market close on September 11, 2026; the reporting currency is Hong Kong dollars (HKD). September 13, 2026 was a Sunday, and the Hong Kong market was closed. Information may differ in timeliness; specific data should be based on formal Company announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is provided solely for information organization and research reference. It does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.