Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. (LIVZON PHARMA) (01513)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Comprehensive Pharmaceutical Group | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of Hong Kong stock market close on September 11, 2026; September 12-13, 2026 is a weekend, and there is no new official closing price in the Hong Kong market. All amounts are in HKD.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513.HK)'s performance for the first half of 2026 came under significant pressure: operating revenue was RMB 4.99967 billion, down 20.28% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 932.20 million, down 27.23% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was approximately RMB 890.20 million, down approximately 26.57% year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to price and sales channel adjustments for mature products, decreased revenue from leuprorelin acetate for injection in the Guangdong alliance region, fluvoxamine tablets entering the eleventh round of national centralized procurement, and lower incidence of influenza and respiratory diseases compared to the same period last year. During the same period, net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 1.7629 billion, up 4.50% year-on-year, indicating that cash flow performance was temporarily better than profit performance.

In 2025, the company's operating revenue was RMB 12.02035 billion, up 1.76% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.02325 billion, down 1.84% year-on-year; the comprehensive gross margin was approximately 65.90%, and the net sales margin was approximately 20.06%. The revenue share of high-margin chemical preparations and traditional Chinese medicine preparations increased, with chemical preparations gross margin at 81.06% and traditional Chinese medicine preparations gross margin at 74.82%, but API and intermediates revenue declined 4.23% year-on-year with a gross margin of 34.84%, creating a certain drag on growth and profitability. The company's revenue remains primarily domestic, with domestic revenue accounting for 83.94% in 2025 and overseas revenue accounting for 16.06% but growing 11.97% year-on-year; distribution revenue accounted for 71.03%, and channel inventory, commercial customer receivables collection, and hospital terminal settlement remain important observation points for operating quality.

The company has obtained the drug registration certificate for lecanemab? No — lekantiqitamab injection (Libeitan), which is China's first approved domestic IL-17A/F dual-target product, with cumulative direct R&D investment of approximately RMB 223.31 million, but its commercialization progress, medical insurance access, and ramp-up scale have not yet formed verifiable revenue. The company also plans to acquire 3.5044% equity of Xinbeijiang Pharmaceutical for RMB 106.69575 million. After the transaction is completed, the direct shareholding ratio will increase from approximately 87.14% to approximately 90.64%. Since the target is already included in the consolidation scope, the main impact is expected to be reflected in the reduction of minority shareholders' equity and an increase in the proportion of future profit attribution.

As of September 11, 2026, the Hong Kong stock closing price was 20.78 HKD, with a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 18.45 billion, a dynamic PE/TTM PE of approximately 8.3x to 9.6x, and a PB of approximately 1.2x; however, the EPS in the relevant earnings forecasts is denominated in RMB without exchange rate conversion, so the valuation is only suitable as a rough reference. Technically, the stock is in a state of low-level consolidation after a sharp decline, with short-term oversold conditions while the medium-term trend remains weak: RSI is approximately 20.48, the stock price is below MA20 at approximately 21.66 HKD, the 20.0 to 20.4 HKD range is the recent support observation zone, and 21.2 to 21.7 HKD is the main rebound resistance zone. The company plans to distribute a special interim dividend of RMB 1.02 per share, which still requires shareholder meeting approval. The actual HKD amount received by H-share investors and the applicable exchange rate shall be subject to the formal dividend arrangement.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Chemical preparation products
• API and pharmaceutical intermediates
• Traditional Chinese medicine preparations
• Biological products
• Diagnostic reagents and equipment
• Other businesses

2.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

Livzon Pharmaceutical is a comprehensive, platform-based pharmaceutical group primarily engaged in pharmaceutical R&D, production, and sales, with businesses spanning chemical preparations, specialty APIs, traditional Chinese medicine, biological products, and in vitro diagnostics. In 2025, chemical preparations and API and intermediates together contributed approximately 77.7% of operating revenue, with the preparation business constituting the main source of profit, while API and intermediates provide scale, cash flow, and an internationalization foundation.

• The company's main procurement inputs include: APIs, pharmaceutical excipients, packaging materials, and pharmaceutical equipment required for chemical preparations; chemical raw materials, fermentation materials, and energy power required for API and intermediates; Chinese medicinal materials, traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, and excipients required for traditional Chinese medicine preparations; biological raw materials, culture media, and specialized equipment required for biological products and peptide products; antigens and antibodies, enzymes, magnetic beads, chips, plastic consumables, and instrument components required for diagnostic reagents.
• In 2025, operating costs were RMB 4.099 billion, of which material costs were RMB 1.864 billion, accounting for 45.47% of operating costs; labor costs accounted for 16.04%, depreciation accounted for 9.12%, and energy power accounted for 8.75%. Material costs remain the largest single cost item, but the proportion is lower than 53.81% in 2024.
• Upstream bargaining power is tiered: bulk chemical raw materials, energy, and some general excipients are mainly price takers, with costs affected by chemicals, energy, and environmental requirements; some core products of chemical preparations and traditional Chinese medicine can be supplied by relevant subsidiaries within the group, providing relatively strong supply stability; the price and supply of Chinese medicinal materials are affected by production areas, climate, quality standards, and supply-demand cycles. The company uses or builds some proprietary GAP production bases, but this cannot completely eliminate cyclical risks.
• Specialty APIs have formed certain customer stickiness through long-term customer cooperation, process certification, quality systems, and international registration, with bargaining power higher than ordinary bulk APIs, but still affected by global API price cycles and customer inventory adjustments.
• As of the 2025 annual report public information, a latest, complete, and cross-verifiable set of top five supplier proportions could not be confirmed. Historical reference data: approximately 26.36% in the 2022 annual report and approximately 29.31% in the 2024 interim report; neither is full-year 2025 data and cannot directly represent current supplier concentration.
• Downstream customers mainly include hospitals and medical institutions, pharmaceutical commercial distribution enterprises, retail pharmacies and primary healthcare terminals, overseas pharmaceutical companies and animal health companies, as well as diagnostic reagent distributors, hospital laboratory departments, and third-party testing institutions.
• In 2025, distribution revenue accounted for 71.03% of operating revenue, and direct sales revenue accounted for 28.97%. The relatively high distribution proportion indicates that the company still relies considerably on commercial channel networks in hospitals, pharmaceutical commerce, and terminal markets; APIs, international customers, and some diagnostic products are closer to direct sales or key account cooperation models.
• Chemical preparations are jointly affected by hospitals, medical insurance payments, national and local centralized procurement, medical insurance negotiations, and commercial channels. Generic drugs and mature preparations face strong price pressure, while innovative drugs, improved new drugs, and complex preparations have relatively stronger differentiation and bargaining power.
• API and intermediate prices are more affected by global supply and demand, customer certification cycles, and product quality standards; high-end antibiotics, specialty APIs, and products that have passed international certification have strong customer stickiness, while ordinary intermediates are closer to cyclical commodities.
• Diagnostic reagents have a reagent-instrument binding relationship. Customers focus on testing menus, instrument installations, result stability, after-sales service, and hospital tenders. Low price alone does not constitute a long-term competitive advantage.
• The top five customer sales proportion for full-year 2025 could not be confirmed and cross-verified in the materials retrieved for this report. Historical data: 8.77% in the 2022 annual report and 7.94% in the 2024 interim report; this data is from earlier years and the scope may vary by year, so it cannot be directly extrapolated to 2025. The specific data shall be subject to the latest annual report.
• In 2025, the accounts receivable turnover ratio was approximately 5.75x, corresponding to approximately 63.5 days of accounts receivable turnover; the inventory turnover ratio was approximately 2.30x. This accounts receivable turnover days indicates that the company has payment terms with hospitals and commercial channels, but public data has not yet shown extreme accounts receivable occupation. Since distribution revenue accounted for approximately 71% of 2025 revenue, channel inventory, commercial customer receivables collection, and hospital terminal settlement remain important factors affecting cash flow quality; the above turnover data comes from publicly available visualized annual report materials, and the specific scope shall be subject to the company's latest annual report.
• Supplier concentration: the top five suppliers' procurement amount in the 2022 annual report accounted for approximately 26.36% of total raw material procurement, and approximately 29.31% in the 2024 interim report; no confirmed full-year 2025 data is available. Customer concentration: the top five customers' sales amount in the 2022 annual report accounted for 8.77% of main business revenue, and 7.94% in the 2024 interim report; no confirmed full-year 2025 data is available. Historical data indicates that overall customer concentration is not high, but the source years are earlier and could not be cross-verified using the 2025 annual report scope.

Livzon Pharmaceutical is positioned in the mid-to-downstream segment of the pharmaceutical industry chain. It is a comprehensive pharmaceutical group with strong capabilities in preparation brands and specialized therapeutic areas, while also extending upstream into specialty APIs, rather than a pure bulk API company. The company's profits are mainly contributed by high-margin chemical preparations and traditional Chinese medicine preparations. Further improving profitability depends on the ramp-up of innovative drugs and complex preparations, maintaining competitiveness of advantageous products in digestive tract and assisted reproduction, growth in specialty API exports, overseas localized capacity construction, and product structure upgrading.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the first half of 2026 was approximately RMB 890.20 million, down approximately 26.57% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was RMB 1.05, compared to RMB 1.43 in the same period of 2025. Net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for full year 2025 was approximately RMB 2.009 billion, up 1.51% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of RMB 2.27. The above financial data is denominated in RMB.

The significant decline in revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2026 was mainly affected by price and sales channel adjustments for mature products, decreased sales revenue from leuprorelin acetate for injection in the Guangdong alliance region, fluvoxamine tablets entering the eleventh round of national centralized procurement, and lower incidence of influenza and respiratory diseases compared to the same period last year. By product, digestive tract product revenue was approximately RMB 954.02 million, down 29.39% year-on-year; psychiatric product revenue was approximately RMB 153.36 million, down 51.62% year-on-year; gonadotropin product revenue was approximately RMB 1.20645 billion, down 21.13% year-on-year; API and intermediate revenue was approximately RMB 1.61099 billion, down 3.04% year-on-year. Overseas revenue for full year 2025 was approximately RMB 1.930 billion, up 11.97% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 16.06% of operating revenue; domestic revenue was approximately RMB 10.090 billion, essentially flat year-on-year.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

ET Net as of early September 2026 compiled 3 research reports: 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company median was approximately RMB 2.072 billion, with a range of RMB 2.043 billion to RMB 2.222 billion; EPS median was RMB 2.33, with a range of RMB 2.287 to RMB 2.49. 2027 net profit attributable to the parent company median was approximately RMB 2.379 billion, with a range of RMB 2.273 billion to RMB 2.416 billion; EPS median was RMB 2.66, with a range of RMB 2.56 to RMB 2.705. 2028 net profit attributable to the parent company median was approximately RMB 2.642 billion, with a range of RMB 2.625 billion to RMB 2.659 billion; EPS median was RMB 2.9585, with a range of approximately RMB 2.94 to RMB 2.977. ET Net did not simultaneously disclose operating revenue forecasts. MarketScreener forecast amounts are denominated in RMB; its 2026 revenue is forecast to decline approximately 9.11% year-on-year. Based on the data listed in the comprehensive summary, the operating revenue forecast ranges for 2026 to 2028 are approximately RMB 10.9 billion to RMB 12.2 billion, RMB 12.0 billion to RMB 13.9 billion, and RMB 12.2 billion to RMB 15.0 billion, respectively; the net profit attributable to the parent company forecast ranges are approximately RMB 1.98 billion to RMB 2.22 billion, RMB 2.23 billion to RMB 2.42 billion, and RMB 2.44 billion to RMB 2.70 billion, respectively; the EPS forecast ranges are approximately RMB 2.23 to RMB 2.49, RMB 2.47 to RMB 2.73, and RMB 2.61 to RMB 3.04, respectively. Forecast scopes, covering institutions, and update dates differ across sources and should not be regarded as a unified consensus.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of September 10, 2026, 01513 Livzon Pharmaceutical closed at HKD 20.72, down 2.45% on the day, with trading volume of approximately 5.3894 million shares. Based on a rough calculation using the weighted average number of ordinary shares of approximately 887.9 million shares in the interim report, the total market capitalization was approximately HKD 18.397 billion; assuming approximately 300 million H-share shares, the H-share market capitalization was approximately HKD 6.216 billion. The above market capitalization is an approximate value and may be affected by total share capital, treasury shares, and data update timing. The simple average of target prices from three institutions is approximately HKD 33.74, corresponding to potential upside of approximately 62.9% from HKD 20.72, but target prices are the results of broker model valuations and may not yet fully reflect the impact of 2026 interim results. Comparing the 2025 basic earnings per share of RMB 2.27 directly with the Hong Kong stock price, the static PE is approximately 9.1x; based on MarketScreener forecast EPS, the forecast PE for 2026 to 2028 is approximately 9.3x, 8.4x, and 7.9x; based on ET Net institutional consensus EPS, the forecast PE for 2026 to 2028 is approximately 8.9x, 7.8x, and 7.0x. Since the stock price is denominated in HKD and EPS is denominated in RMB, the above PE has not been exchange-rate converted and is only suitable as a rough reference. The MarketScreener page also shows forecast PE of approximately 12.0x and 10.8x for 2026 and 2027, which differs from the direct calculation results and may be related to differences in trading prices, exchange rates, share scope, or page update timing. The Tiger Brokers page shows a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.21x, a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 8.00x, and a dividend yield of approximately 7.74%, but the quotation range is not fully synchronized with the September 10, 2026 closing price and is for auxiliary reference only. The company's 2025 dividend per share was RMB 1.43. The actual dividend for Hong Kong stocks shall be subject to the company's announcements, ex-dividend date, and HKD-converted amount. Overall, the company's valuation is approximately at the level of 2026 forecast PE of 8x to 10x, 2027 forecast PE of 7x to 9x, price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.2x, and dividend yield of approximately 7% to 8%, exhibiting characteristics of low valuation, high dividend yield, but short-term performance pressure. Commercialization of innovative drugs and complex preparations, ramp-up of aripiprazole microspheres and IL-17A/F related products, overseas business, and consolidation of Vietnam IMP may bring valuation repair; centralized procurement and regional alliance pressure, recovery in the second half of 2026 falling short of expectations, delays in commercialization of innovative products, and continued downward revision of earnings forecasts are the main risks.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Change of Chairman and Board Special Committees

On September 12, 2026, Livzon Pharmaceutical disclosed an announcement regarding the change of chairman and adjustment of members of board special committees. Zhu Baoguo resigned as chairman, non-executive director, chairman of the board strategy committee, chairman of the environmental, social and governance committee, and positions in controlled subsidiaries due to retirement, and also resigned as legal representative. Liu Daping was elected as the new chairman, with a term until the expiry of the twelfth board of directors; he was previously an executive director and president of the company. The announcement stated that after resigning, Zhu Baoguo remains the actual controller of the company and will continue to support the company's development and management work. After the adjustment, the chairman of the strategy committee and the chairman of the environmental, social and governance committee is Liu Daping, the chairman of the nomination committee is Luo Huiyuan, the chairman of the audit committee is Kang Li, and the chairman of the remuneration and assessment committee is Cui Lijie. This matter relates to corporate governance and management transition. In the short term, attention should be paid to the continuity of the new chairman's approach to existing R&D, internationalization, and shareholder return strategies.

4.2 Proposed Special Interim Dividend of RMB 1.02 Per Share

On September 8, 2026, the company's board of directors approved the 2026 special interim dividend plan for rewarding shareholders, proposing to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 10.20 per 10 shares, equivalent to RMB 1.02 per share. Based on the total share capital of 887,907,171 shares, the total proposed cash dividend is approximately RMB 906 million. The plan still needs to be submitted to the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2026 for deliberation. The H-share record date is October 15, 2026, and the expected H-share dividend payment date is on or before November 3, 2026, with October 14, 2026 as the relevant ex-dividend date. The actual HKD amount received by H-share investors and the applicable exchange rate shall be subject to the company's subsequent formal dividend documents and registrar arrangements. The special dividend has not yet been finalized and may reduce the company's cash available for R&D, mergers and acquisitions, capacity construction, and working capital.

4.3 Proposed Convening of the First Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026 to Deliberate the Special Dividend

The company announced on September 9, 2026 that it plans to convene the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2026 on September 24, 2026, mainly to deliberate the 2026 special interim dividend plan for rewarding shareholders. Both A-share and H-share shareholders are entitled to attend, and the H-share shareholder registration arrangements shall be subject to the records of Tricor Securities Registration Limited. As of September 13, 2026, the shareholders' meeting has not yet been held, and the special dividend has not yet received final shareholder approval.

4.4 No H-Share Repurchase, Cancellation, or Treasury Share Changes as of End-August 2026

The company disclosed on September 1, 2026 the monthly return of securities changes for the month ended August 31, 2026. The number of H-shares at the end of the period was 299,807,117 shares, the number of A-shares was 588,100,054 shares, and the total registered share capital was RMB 887,907,171. During August 2026, there were no new share issuances, no share repurchases, cancellations, or treasury share changes, and no share changes due to share options or other equity incentive plans. Therefore, as of August 31, 2026, there is no evidence that the company executed H-share repurchases or cancellations. As of September 13, 2026, the latest monthly return of securities changes for September 2026 is not yet due for disclosure, so it cannot be determined whether repurchases occurred in September; as of that date, no new announcement of actual H-share repurchase execution was found.

4.5 Proposed Acquisition of 3.5044% Equity of Xinbeijiang Pharmaceutical, Constituting a Connected Transaction

On August 21, 2026, the company entered into a share transfer agreement with Zhuhai Zhonghuiyuan Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership), proposing to acquire 3.5044% equity of Livzon Group Xinbeijiang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for cash of RMB 106.69575 million. After the transaction is completed, the company's direct shareholding ratio in Xinbeijiang Pharmaceutical will increase from approximately 87.14% to approximately 90.64%. Xinbeijiang Pharmaceutical is mainly engaged in the production of APIs and intermediates, and the transaction funds come from the company's internal resources. The transaction constitutes a connected transaction under Chapter 14A of the Hong Kong Listing Rules. Since the applicable percentage ratio exceeds 0.1% but is less than 5%, it is subject to reporting and announcement obligations but is exempt from independent shareholder approval. Connected director Tang Yanggang is the executive partner of the seller Zhuhai Zhonghuiyuan and abstained from voting when the board deliberated on the matter. Since Xinbeijiang Pharmaceutical was already included in the consolidation scope, the direct incremental contribution of the transaction to the group's revenue scale is limited, and the main impact is the reduction of minority shareholders' equity and an increase in the proportion of future profit attribution.

4.6 Revenue and Profit Declined Year-on-Year in the First Half of 2026

For the six months ended June 30, 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of approximately RMB 4.9997 billion, down 20.28% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately RMB 932.2 million, down 27.23% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was approximately RMB 890.2 million, down 29.26% year-on-year; net cash flow from operating activities was approximately RMB 1.7629 billion, up 4.50% year-on-year. The revenue decline was mainly related to the impact of medical insurance price reductions, centralized procurement, and market competition on chemical preparations, traditional Chinese medicine preparations, and some key products. As of September 13, 2026, no clear profit warning, positive profit alert, or negative profit alert announcement for full-year 2026 was found from the company.

4.7 Lecantiqitamab Injection Obtained Drug Registration Certificate

On August 28, 2026, the company disclosed that its controlled subsidiary Zhuhai Livzon Mabpharm Biotechnology Co., Ltd. obtained a drug registration certificate from the National Medical Products Administration. The product's generic name is lecantiqitamab injection, trade name Libeitan, specification 160mg/1.6mL, approval number Guoyaozhunzi S20260065, indicated for adult patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who are suitable for systemic therapy or phototherapy, with registration category Class 1 therapeutic biological product. The announcement stated that it is China's first approved domestic IL-17A/F dual-target product. As of the announcement date, cumulative direct R&D investment was approximately RMB 223.31 million. Obtaining the registration certificate means it has the qualification for production and marketing, but commercialization progress, ramp-up speed, medical insurance access, and actual sales scale remain uncertain, and large-scale verifiable sales revenue has not yet been formed.

4.8 Dynamics of the Actual Controller and Major Shareholders

After Zhu Baoguo resigned as chairman and director, the announcement clarified that he remains the actual controller of the company, and this matter is not a transfer of control. As of September 13, 2026, in searches for 01513, Livzon Pharmaceutical, and announcements in September 2026, no clear announcements of recent large-scale increases, decreases, or changes in interests by major shareholders were found. However, disclosure of interests may be subject to reporting delays, and the absence of publicly disclosed information should not be understood as the absence of any on-market transactions.

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, 01513 Livzon Pharmaceutical's technical picture is in a state of "low-level consolidation after a sharp decline, short-term oversold, medium-term trend still weak." The stock price has fallen significantly from the August 20 closing price of 25.44 HKD and remains below MA20 at approximately 21.66 HKD and the main high-volume area before the August 24-25 decline. RSI at approximately 20 indicates a relatively large short-term decline and conditions for a technical rebound, but the stock fell again on September 10-11, and MACD has not yet shown a clear golden cross confirmation. The 20 HKD area is important near-term support, and 21.2 to 21.7 HKD is the short-term rebound resistance zone; future trends still need to be observed in conjunction with trading volume, short-selling ratio, pharmaceutical sector performance, and market environment.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is purely a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice nor a guarantee of actual future trends.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weighting, Not Statistical Probability)

• Weak consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 60%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical patterns and capital flows, not a statistical probability): observation range of 20.0~21.3 HKD. Trigger conditions include 20.0 HKD not being effectively breached, volume maintaining the recent normal range of approximately 1 million to 2.2 million shares, no further systemic selling in the pharmaceutical sector, and the stock price fluctuating between 20.4~20.9 HKD. Since the stock price remains below MA20, the rebound height may be capped by 21.2~21.7 HKD.
• Weaker downside (medium weight; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical patterns and capital flows, not a statistical probability): observation range of 19.2~20.1 HKD. Trigger conditions include the closing price breaking below 19.8~20.0 HKD, single-day volume significantly higher than the recent average, continued weakness in the pharmaceutical sector or Hang Seng Index, and the short-selling ratio remaining at a high level with the stock price unable to reclaim 20.4 HKD. If 19.8 HKD is breached with volume, the price may seek support in the 19.2~19.5 HKD area.
• Stronger rebound (low to medium weight; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical patterns and capital flows, not a statistical probability): observation range of 21.2~22.8 HKD. Trigger conditions include the closing price reclaiming 21.2 HKD and further breaking above 21.7 HKD, single-day turnover consistently above the recent normal level, reaching at least approximately HKD 50 million to HKD 60 million, the pharmaceutical sector stabilizing in tandem or the company having new positive catalysts, and the short-selling ratio declining or short covering occurring. Even if this scenario materializes, it can only be regarded as a short-term rebound observation and cannot be used to confirm a medium-term trend reversal.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 10-11, 2026, daily trading volume was approximately 1.8 million to 2.2 million shares, with daily turnover of approximately HKD 37 million to HKD 45 million; the platform shows a turnover rate of approximately 0.20%, re-estimated at approximately 0.6% to 0.7% based on H-share free float, with denominator scope differences between the two. The short-selling ratio is approximately 18% to 22%. As of the interim report data for June 30, 2026, the top ten shareholders collectively held approximately 65.58%, of which Hong Kong Central Clearing (Nominees) Limited held approximately 33.74% and Health-Yuan Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. held approximately 24.93%; the top ten shareholders also include an innovative drug ETF with a holding of approximately 0.66%. The HKSCC nominee account is not equivalent to a single institutional shareholder and cannot be entirely understood as long-term holding by one institution. Shareholder data is as of June 30, 2026, approximately two and a half months behind September 11, and the actual structure may have changed during the period. Overall, the company has relatively high equity concentration, and tradable H-shares in the secondary market are relatively limited. A small number of large orders, southbound Stock Connect funds, and short-selling transactions may have a relatively significant impact on short-term prices; the volume-driven decline on August 24-25 reflected rapid repricing under the earnings shock, while the early September rebound volume was not yet sufficient to prove large-scale capital re-inflow.

The verifiable volume confirmation signal is: if single-day turnover reaches approximately HKD 50 million to HKD 60 million or more for consecutive days in the coming week, while the closing price stands above 21.2~21.7 HKD, it can be regarded as an observation signal of enhanced short-term capital support; if volume increases but the stock price still cannot break above the 21 HKD area, it is more likely to represent high-level turnover or a stalled rebound.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether 20.0~20.4 HKD can continue to provide support; the above is a technical level observation idea, not a buy, sell, or hold instruction.
• Observe whether there is a volume-driven break below the 19.8 HKD area; the above is a risk level observation idea, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether 21.2~21.7 HKD can break through and hold with increased volume; the above is a trend confirmation observation idea, not a trading instruction.
• Observe whether single-day turnover can continuously rise above HKD 50 million to HKD 60 million, and whether the short-selling ratio declines when the stock price rebounds; the above are all observation ideas, not buy, sell, or hold instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicator calculations. Short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors such as news, capital flows, overall market environment, pharmaceutical sector performance, and the company's earnings expectations. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The company operates in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, with segments covering chemical preparations, specialty APIs, traditional Chinese medicine, biologics, and in vitro diagnostics. The industry has high R&D investment, long R&D cycles, and clinical failure risks, while being subject to strict drug quality, registration regulation, and GMP requirements. Generic drugs are affected by centralized procurement and medical insurance payment controls, while innovative drugs, complex preparations, specialty APIs, and internationalization businesses have relatively higher added value.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The domestic pharmaceutical market is large, but competition among homogeneous products is intense, with strong price competition and centralized procurement pressure for generic drugs.
• Innovative drug R&D has long cycles, high investment, and high clinical failure risks; R&D capabilities, product registration, and commercialization capabilities constitute important competitive factors.
• Drug quality, GMP, international registration, and supply chain compliance form industry entry barriers.
• The API industry is upgrading from bulk products to specialty APIs, international certification, and preparation integration.
• Overseas markets require long-term registration, quality systems, customer certification, and localized supply capabilities.
• Livzon achieves business diversification through industry chain synergy among chemical preparations, APIs, and intermediates, as well as traditional Chinese medicine preparations, diagnostic reagents, and overseas base layout.
• The company's official website discloses that it received recognition in 2025 from industry lists such as "China Pharmaceutical Industry TOP101," "China Innovative Drug Enterprise TOP101," and "China API Business TOP30"; such lists are industry selections and are not equivalent to regulatory statistics or proof of market share.

6.3 Main Competitors

Livzon Pharmaceutical is not a single innovative drug company, nor a single bulk API enterprise, but a comprehensive, platform-based pharmaceutical group spanning chemical preparations, APIs, traditional Chinese medicine, biological products, and diagnostic reagents. Business overlap with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, The United Laboratories, and Fosun Pharma is relatively high, but Livzon has its own portfolio characteristics in the digestive tract, assisted reproduction, specialty APIs, traditional Chinese medicine preparations, and diagnostics; comparability with Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Huadong Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and China Resources Pharmaceutical is more reflected in certain businesses or the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector dimension.

7. Risk Warnings

• Centralized procurement and regional alliance price reduction risk: fluvoxamine tablets entered the eleventh round of national centralized procurement, and sales revenue of leuprorelin acetate for injection in the Guangdong alliance region declined. If chemical preparations and key mature products continue to be affected by medical insurance price reductions, centralized procurement, and market competition, the company's revenue and profit margin may come under further pressure.
• Core product sales fluctuation risk: in the first half of 2026, digestive tract product revenue was approximately RMB 954.02 million, down 29.39% year-on-year; psychiatric product revenue was approximately RMB 153.36 million, down 51.62% year-on-year; gonadotropin product revenue was approximately RMB 1.20645 billion, down 21.13% year-on-year. The recovery speed of these products will directly affect full-year performance recovery.
• New drug commercialization uncertainty: although lecantiqitamab injection has obtained a drug registration certificate, as of the announcement date it has not yet formed verifiable large-scale sales revenue; its medical insurance access, market promotion, ramp-up speed, and actual sales scale are all uncertain, and the return on cumulative R&D investment of RMB 223.31 million still needs subsequent commercialization verification.
• API business cyclical and profitability risk: API and intermediates revenue in the first half of 2026 was approximately RMB 1.61099 billion, down 3.04% year-on-year; in 2025, this business's gross margin was 34.84%, significantly lower than chemical preparations and traditional Chinese medicine preparations. Its performance may still be affected by global supply and demand, customer inventory adjustments, API price cycles, and international customer certification progress.
• Channel and receivables collection risk: in 2025, distribution revenue accounted for 71.03% of operating revenue, accounts receivable turnover days were approximately 63.5 days, and inventory turnover ratio was approximately 2.30x. If hospital settlement, commercial customer receivables collection, or distribution channel inventory adjustments intensify, it may cause an increase in accounts receivable and inventory occupation, weakening the quality of profit-to-cash flow conversion.
• Shareholder return and capital allocation risk: the proposed special interim dividend of RMB 1.02 per share, totaling approximately RMB 906 million, is still pending shareholder meeting approval; if ultimately implemented, it may reduce the company's cash available for R&D, mergers and acquisitions, capacity construction, and working capital, and increase future capital allocation pressure.
• Governance transition risk: Zhu Baoguo resigned as chairman and related director positions due to retirement, and Liu Daping was elected as the new chairman; although Zhu Baoguo remains the actual controller, the management transition may bring observation risk regarding the continuity of R&D, internationalization, shareholder returns, and execution of existing operating strategies.
• Hong Kong stock liquidity and stock price volatility risk: as of September 11, 2026, the stock price was 20.78 HKD, still below MA20 at approximately 21.66 HKD, RSI was approximately 20.48, and the short-selling ratio was approximately 18% to 22%; the company's H-share equity is relatively concentrated, and a volume-driven decline occurred on August 24-25. A small number of large orders, southbound Stock Connect funds, or short-selling transactions may amplify short-term price volatility.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company's medium- to long-term growth logic mainly comes from the product structure of high-margin chemical preparations and traditional Chinese medicine preparations, distinctive therapeutic areas such as the digestive tract and assisted reproduction, growth in specialty API exports, and the commercialization of innovative drugs and complex preparations. The registration certificate obtained for lecantiqitamab injection constitutes a product reserve and commercialization milestone, and overseas revenue maintained rapid growth in 2025, also providing a certain foundation for geographic revenue diversification. Market forecasts show that the net profit attributable to the parent company forecast ranges for 2026 to 2028 are approximately RMB 1.98 billion to RMB 2.22 billion, RMB 2.23 billion to RMB 2.42 billion, and RMB 2.44 billion to RMB 2.70 billion, respectively, but forecast scopes and update dates differ across institutions and should not be regarded as a unified consensus.

Short-term fundamental repair still depends on whether the impact of price reductions for mature products, centralized procurement, and regional alliances converges, whether key product sales can recover, and whether new products can generate actual revenue. The company's proposed special dividend helps enhance shareholder return expectations, but based on total share capital, it will pay approximately RMB 906 million, which may reduce cash available for R&D, mergers and acquisitions, capacity construction, and working capital. The chairman has changed from Zhu Baoguo to Liu Daping, with Zhu Baoguo still the actual controller. The continuity of R&D, internationalization, and shareholder return strategies needs to be observed going forward. Overall, the company combines low valuation, relatively high dividend expectations, and product structure upgrading potential, but the performance decline in the first half of 2026 and weak technical pattern mean future valuation repair still depends on performance verification.

Data Sources

• Listed Company Information Title Search
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: 2023 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: 2025 Interim Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Livzon Group: 2025 Annual Report_Annual Report_Company Announcements_Daily Must-Read_Stocks_Stockstar
• Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. 2026 Interim Report Full Text
• Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.
• Livzon Group 2025 Visualized Annual Report | Shanghai Securities News · China Securities Network
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: 2024 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Strength Demonstrated! Livzon Pharmaceutical Wins Three Major Awards at the 7th China Pharmaceutical Industry Expo - Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.
• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited - About Us > Company Profile
• Hengrui Pharmaceuticals
• The United Laboratories
• https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0821/2026082100762.pdf
• 1513.HK LIVZON PHARMA - Company Information - Earnings Forecast Overview - etnet
• Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.: Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations | LP6 | CNE100001QV5 | MarketScreener
• Livzon Group (000513) Earnings Forecast_F10_10jqka Financial Services Network
• Livzon Pharmaceutical (1513) Stock Historical Data: Historical Quotes, Prices, Trend Charts_Investing.com
• Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) Financial Report Dates, Financial Reports and Earnings Call Details - Tiger Brokers
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, nor as to its accuracy
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: Announcement on Change of Chairman and Adjustment of Members of Certain Board Special Committees Sina Finance_Sina
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: Notice on Convening the First Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders in 2026 Sina Finance_Sina
• Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513.HK): Connected Transaction Acquisition of Xinbeijiang Pharmaceutical Shares Content Summary_Announcement Brief_Data Analysis_Stocks_Stockstar
• Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. 2026 Interim Report Full Text
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: Announcement on Obtaining the Drug Registration Certificate Sina Finance_Sina
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, nor as to its
• Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513.HK), Stock Price, Real-Time Quotes, News, Financial Report Data | Huasheng Trading
• Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) PE Ratio | Valuation | Fundamentals - Lixinger
• Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc Stock Price Today | HK: 1513 Live - Investing.com
• Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513.HK), Stock Price, Real-Time Quotes, News, Financial Report Data | Huasheng Trading
• Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. (HKG:1513) Historical Stock Price Data
• 1513 Technical Analysis, RSI and Moving Averages - Investing.com
• 1513.HK Hong Kong Stock Quote | Livzon Pharmaceutical | LIVZON PHARMA - etnet | Hong Kong News Financial Information and Lifestyle Platform
• Livzon Group (000513)_Company Announcements_Livzon Group: 2026 Interim Report Summary Sina Finance_Sina

This report is automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information. Information is as of Hong Kong stock market close on September 11, 2026; September 12-13, 2026 is a weekend, and there is no new official closing price in the Hong Kong market. All amounts are in HKD. There may be timeliness differences, and specific data shall be subject to the company's formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.