Report date: 2026-09-13 | Price data: Data as of the Hong Kong stock market close on September 11, 2026; some quotes are delayed by at least 15 minutes, and technical indicators are calculated by a third-party platform using different methodologies. | Sources: 24 | Report engine: v1 (v2 available)

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Close	302.4 (-1.88% on the day; -3.51% over 5 sessions; -7.01% over 20 sessions)
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P/E (last fiscal year)	4.89x
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One-week range (about 68% coverage)	290.77 – 312.5 (-3.8% ~ +3.3%)
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As of the 2026-10-02 close; calculated from daily price data (unadjusted prices) and refreshed automatically each trading day. The one-week range reflects historical volatility only and is not a forecast. The report below was written on 2026-09-13; its prices and short-term scenarios reflect data at that time.

Trip.com Group Limited (09961)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Online Travel Platform (OTA) and Integrated Travel Services　|　Report Date: September 13, 2026　|　Data as of the Hong Kong market close on September 11, 2026; some quotations are delayed by at least 15 minutes, and technical indicators are calculated by third-party platforms using different methodologies.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

Trip.com Group（09961.HK）reported net operating revenue of approximately RMB 62.409 billion in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of approximately 16.9%; net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 33.294 billion, up approximately 95.1% year on year. Accommodation reservation revenue was approximately RMB 26.1 billion and transportation ticketing revenue approximately RMB 22.5 billion, together accounting for approximately 78% of total revenue. Accommodation revenue grew 21% year on year and was an important support for the company’s revenue mix and growth quality. However, the sharp increase in 2025 net profit was partly driven by volatile items such as investment gains, fair-value changes and gains from associates. A net margin of approximately 53.4% should not be regarded as a normalized level for the core business.

In the first quarter of 2026, revenue was approximately RMB 16.294 billion, up 17% year on year. Accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and corporate travel management revenue were approximately RMB 6.5 billion, RMB 6.1 billion, RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 690 million, respectively. However, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 2.499 billion, down approximately 42% year on year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 3.905 billion, down approximately 6.8%; and adjusted EBITDA was approximately RMB 4.830 billion, up approximately 13.7%. The company’s preliminary outlook for second-quarter 2026 revenue growth was 3% to 8% year on year, below the first-quarter growth rate. Formal second-quarter and first-half results will be released before the Hong Kong market opens on September 16, 2026, Hong Kong time.

The company owns the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner brands. As of the end of 2025, it covered approximately 1.7 million global accommodation properties, more than 680 airlines and more than 60,000 other ecosystem partners, with its transportation network covering more than 220 countries and regions. The platform model is characterized by asset-light operations, high gross margins and economies of scale. Rising contributions from international business, accommodation and destination activities, together with technology and artificial intelligence improving conversion efficiency, form the company’s medium- to long-term growth drivers. However, airlines, major hotel groups, Fliggy, Meituan, Tongcheng and content platforms may intensify competition through direct sales or traffic gateways.

As of September 11, 2026, the share price closed at HKD 305.80, down approximately 12.4% from the September 1 closing price of HKD 349.00, close to the 52-week low of HKD 299.20 and the estimated lower Bollinger Band of approximately HKD 305.7. RSI was approximately 26 and Williams %R was close to oversold territory, indicating conditions for a short-term technical rebound. However, the share price remained below multiple moving averages, MACD was negative, ADX was approximately 35 to 38, and short-selling turnover accounted for approximately 48% to 50% of total turnover on September 10 and 11. Overall, the stock remained in an oversold state following a clearly weak downward trend.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

Item	Details
Founded	1999
Listing status	Listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under stock code 09961; also traded on Nasdaq under TCOM
Major brands	Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner
Company positioning	One-stop global travel services platform providing accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, corporate travel management and other travel-related services to leisure and business travelers
2025 net operating revenue	Approximately RMB 62.4 billion, up 17% year on year; the amount follows the company’s disclosed basis and has not been converted into Hong Kong dollars
2025 revenue mix	RMB 26.1 billion from accommodation reservations, RMB 22.5 billion from transportation ticketing, RMB 4.7 billion from packaged tours and RMB 2.8 billion from corporate travel management; other businesses accounted for approximately 10%; accommodation reservations and transportation ticketing together accounted for approximately 78%
Platform supply scale	As of the end of 2025, approximately 1.7 million global accommodation properties, more than 680 airlines and more than 60,000 other ecosystem partners; transportation network covering more than 220 countries and regions
Financial data through	Primarily through December 31, 2025; the 2025 annual report was published on April 28, 2026
Amounts and currencies	Financial and operating amounts are generally denominated in renminbi (RMB); stock prices are denominated in Hong Kong dollars (HKD). This report does not convert between RMB and HKD

2.2 Core Businesses and Product Portfolio

Accommodation reservations: 2025 revenue of RMB 26.1 billion, accounting for approximately 42% of total revenue and growing 21% year on year
Transportation ticketing: 2025 revenue of RMB 22.5 billion, accounting for approximately 36% of total revenue and growing 11% year on year
Packaged tours: 2025 revenue of RMB 4.7 billion, accounting for approximately 7% of total revenue and growing 8% year on year
Corporate travel management: 2025 revenue of RMB 2.8 billion, accounting for approximately 5% of total revenue and growing 13% year on year
Other businesses: Approximately 10% of total revenue, including online advertising, financial services and other travel-related services
Platform model: Primarily platform matching, transaction services, technology and traffic distribution. The company operates as an agent in the vast majority of transactions, with revenue mainly recognized on a net basis as commissions, service fees or referral fees, rather than as the full transaction amount paid by travelers

2.3 Position in the Upstream and Downstream Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

Trip.com occupies a midstream position in the tourism value chain, focused on platform and distribution activities. It connects hotels, airlines, railways and other travel-service providers with individual travelers, corporate customers and advertisers. The company does not own hotel rooms, aircraft fleets or inventories of travel products. Its core resources are its brands, traffic, supplier network, technology systems, data, customer-service infrastructure and corporate customer relationships.

Actual suppliers include hotels and other accommodation providers, airlines, railway and long-distance passenger transport operators, car-rental companies, ferry and bus operators, destination activity providers, travel agencies, insurers and other value-added service providers.
The company obtains supply through open platforms, direct connections to airline systems, global distribution systems, and cooperation agreements with hotels and travel-service providers. Its accommodation business primarily uses two agency models: “guaranteed allotments” and “on-demand reservations.”
The company also uses online payments, data storage, server hosting, bandwidth, user-acquisition channels, advertising and marketing services. Major costs include customer-service personnel, payment processing fees, payments to travel suppliers, communications and technology operating expenses, direct costs of packaged-tour products, financial-services-related costs, sales and marketing expenses and product-development investment.
Airlines and large hotel chains have brand, inventory and direct-sales capabilities. Trip.com’s bargaining power with these suppliers is relatively limited, and it may face pressure if suppliers develop direct-sales channels or shift to other platforms.
Through user traffic, search and booking gateways, corporate customer resources, data and service capabilities, Trip.com has strong platform appeal to small and medium-sized hotels, long-tail accommodation providers and destination service providers. Specific supplier concentration ratios were not disclosed in the research materials.
Transportation ticketing generally has lower commission rates, while accommodation reservations generally have higher commission rates. The commission and service-fee elasticity of accommodation and destination activities may be higher than that of transportation ticketing.
Downstream customers include individual leisure travelers, business and corporate travelers, users purchasing air tickets, hotels, packaged tours and destination activities, and advertisers.
The company reaches customers through the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner brands, as well as mobile applications, websites, customer-service centers, call centers and offline stores. As of December 31, 2024, the company had approximately 6,000 offline stores in approximately 300 Chinese cities; more than 90% of orders in 2024 were completed through mobile channels.
The 2025 annual report disclosed that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of the company’s net revenue in 2023, 2024 or 2025. As of the end of 2024 and 2025, no single customer accounted for more than 10% of accounts receivable. The company did not disclose the combined revenue contribution of its top five customers, so it cannot be inferred that customer concentration is very low. These data come from the company’s annual report and only reflect the 10% threshold for individual customers.
Individual users are sensitive to prices, inventory, cancellation policies, after-sales service and convenience. Corporate customers focus on contracted prices, travel compliance, service stability, reimbursement systems and centralized procurement efficiency.
Hotels and airlines are both suppliers and potential competitors for end users through direct-sales channels. Douyin, Meituan and Alibaba’s Fliggy may capture travel orders through content, instant consumption or integrated e-commerce scenarios.
Downstream competition primarily centers on brand awareness, the breadth and depth of travel products, pricing competitiveness, user support and user satisfaction. Trip.com’s advantage does not come from strong coercive bargaining power over end customers, but from product coverage, brand trust, supply-chain depth, cross-border services, customer-service capabilities, data and technology systems.
As of December 31, 2025, accounts receivable were RMB 15.241 billion, equivalent to approximately 24.4% of 2025 net revenue; prepayments and other current assets were RMB 23.982 billion, equivalent to approximately 38.4% of net revenue; accounts payable were RMB 19.150 billion, equivalent to approximately 30.7% of net revenue; and customer advances were RMB 18.185 billion. Long-term deposits paid to airline suppliers were RMB 270 million, while long-term prepayments and deposits paid to other suppliers totaled approximately RMB 600 million. Operating cash flow in 2025 was RMB 14.379 billion, below RMB 19.625 billion in 2024, mainly due to increased working-capital usage resulting from higher prepayments and other current assets. All amounts are denominated in RMB and have not been converted into HKD. The data indicate that the company benefits from certain platform-based settlement advantages, but is not completely insulated from supplier settlement, customer advances, airline-ticketing deposits or the expansion of financial services.
The supply side includes both large airlines and hotel chains as well as numerous small, medium-sized and long-tail suppliers; specific supplier concentration was not disclosed. On the demand side, the 2025 annual report disclosed that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of net revenue in 2023–2025, and no single customer accounted for more than 10% of accounts receivable as of the end of 2024 or 2025. However, the company did not disclose the combined proportion of its top five customers, so customer concentration cannot be considered very low on this basis. In terms of market share, figures for 2024 GMV suggesting approximately 56% for Trip.com, 15% for Tongcheng, 13% for Meituan, 8% for Fliggy and 3% for Douyin were relayed by secondary media from brokerage research. They were not official statistics from the company’s annual report or regulators, and their methodology and accuracy are subject to limitations.

Year	Gross margin	Net margin	Brief explanation
2023	Approximately 81.8%	Approximately 22.3%	Net operating revenue was RMB 44.510 billion, operating costs were RMB 8.121 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 9.918 billion. Travel demand recovered rapidly after the pandemic, while accommodation and transportation orders recovered and platform scale effects returned. However, product development and service investment remained high.
2024	Approximately 81.3%	Approximately 32.0%	Net operating revenue was RMB 53.294 billion, operating costs were RMB 9.990 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 17.067 billion. The accommodation reservation share rose from 39% in 2023 to 40%; accommodation generally has higher commission rates. At the same time, the product-development expense ratio declined and scale effects improved.
2025	Approximately 80.6%	Approximately 53.4%	Net operating revenue was approximately RMB 62.4 billion, operating costs were RMB 12.1 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 33.294 billion. Accommodation reservations rose further to 42%, while the operating-cost ratio remained 19% and gross margin was broadly stable. The sharp increase in net margin was mainly driven by investment-related gains, including the partial disposal of MakeMyTrip interests, and should not be viewed as a normalized increase in core operating profitability.

Trip.com occupies a midstream position in the tourism value chain, focused on platform and distribution activities. It is asset-light and high-margin, but is neither an upstream resource monopolist nor a downstream branded consumer-goods business. Further profit improvement will primarily depend on increasing the contribution of higher-commission businesses such as accommodation, packaged tours and destination activities, expanding international operations, realizing platform scale effects, and using technology and artificial intelligence to improve conversion rates and reduce customer-acquisition costs, rather than on raw-material cost reductions or expansion of owned production capacity in the manner of traditional manufacturing. The 2025 net margin of approximately 53.4% was affected by investment gains and should not be treated as the normalized profitability of the core business.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Reporting period	Revenue	Year-on-year	Net profit attributable to shareholders	Year-on-year
First quarter of 2026	Approximately RMB 16.294 billion; the company’s rounded announcement figure was RMB 16.2 billion	Up 17% year on year	Net profit attributable to Trip.com Group shareholders was approximately RMB 2.499 billion; the announcement figure was approximately RMB 2.5 billion	Down approximately 41.6% to 42% year on year
Full year 2025	Approximately RMB 62.409 billion	Up approximately 16.9% year on year	Net profit attributable to Trip.com Group shareholders was approximately RMB 33.294 billion	Up approximately 95.1% year on year
Full year 2024	Approximately RMB 53.377 billion	Year-on-year growth rate not separately provided	Net profit attributable to Trip.com Group shareholders was approximately RMB 17.067 billion	Year-on-year growth rate not separately provided

The latest verifiable financial report is for the first quarter of 2026. As of September 10, 2026, second-quarter and first-half 2026 results had not been released. The company planned to announce the results on September 15, 2026, U.S. time. The above financial data are denominated in RMB, while the Hong Kong stock market uses HKD; no conversion between RMB and HKD has been made. First-quarter 2026 data are unaudited.

Net operating revenue in the first quarter of 2026 increased 17% year on year. Accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and corporate travel management revenue were approximately RMB 6.5 billion, RMB 6.1 billion, RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 690 million, respectively, representing growth rates of 17%, 12%, 19% and 20%. However, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders declined approximately 42% year on year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 3.905 billion, down approximately 6.8%; and adjusted EBITDA was approximately RMB 4.830 billion, up approximately 13.7%. The company guided for second-quarter 2026 revenue growth of approximately 3% to 8% year on year, below the first-quarter growth rate. Full-year 2025 net profit was elevated partly by non-operating or volatile items such as investment gains, fair-value changes and gains from associates, and should not be directly extrapolated to 2026.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

The earnings forecasts are compiled from 17 brokerage reports disclosed by etnet through early September 2026, with amounts and EPS denominated in RMB. Revenue forecasts primarily refer to StockAnalysis and a single brokerage research report published in June 2026. Public multi-broker consensus data for 2027 and 2028 revenue are incomplete and lack consistent, cross-verifiable methodology. These forecasts are not official company guidance and may be revised due to second-quarter 2026 results, regulatory rectification, business adjustments and volatility in investment gains.

Year	Revenue	Net profit attributable to shareholders	Net profit growth	Earnings per share (EPS)
2026	Multi-institution average forecast of approximately RMB 67.4 billion; forecast range of approximately RMB 65.3 billion to RMB 69.6 billion. A separate single-broker forecast was RMB 67.9 billion	Multi-institution median/average forecast of RMB 13.165 billion; forecast range of RMB 7.196 billion to RMB 17.169 billion	Down approximately 60.4% from actual 2025 net profit of RMB 33.294 billion	Approximately RMB 20.67 per share
2027	Single-broker forecast of RMB 76.8 billion; public multi-institution consensus data are incomplete	Combined forecast of RMB 16.956 billion; forecast range of RMB 14.383 billion to RMB 20.144 billion	Recovering approximately 28.8% from the 2026 forecast	Approximately RMB 27.91 per share
2028	Single-broker forecast of RMB 86.9 billion; public multi-institution consensus data are incomplete	Combined forecast of RMB 19.103 billion; forecast range of RMB 15.389 billion to RMB 22.011 billion	Up approximately 12.7% from the 2027 forecast	Approximately RMB 30.96 per share

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

Institution	Rating	Date	Notes
DBS	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 563
JPMorgan	Overweight	Not provided	Target price HKD 560
Goldman Sachs	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 560
CMB International	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 558.48
CLSA	Outperform	Not provided	Target price HKD 530.40
Daiwa	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 508
Citi	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 483.60
Bank of America	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 471
HSBC	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 468
Morgan Stanley	Overweight	Not provided	Target price HKD 468
CICC	Outperform	Not provided	Target price HKD 427
CITIC Securities	Buy	Not provided	Target price HKD 396
Macquarie	Neutral	Not provided	Target price HKD 345.54
etnet aggregate of 17 brokerage reports	Overall equivalent: Buy	As of early September 2026	One Strong Buy, 15 Buys, one Hold, and zero Sells or Strong Sells; composite average rating score of 2.00
Futu public aggregation	No composite rating provided	Not provided	Average analyst target price of approximately HKD 462.71, high of approximately HKD 657 and low of approximately HKD 373.42

As of the Hong Kong market close on September 9, 2026, the share price was approximately HKD 316.60. etnet reported a share price of HKD 326.60 as of September 7, indicating relatively significant recent volatility. As of September 7, 2026, LiXinger reported total market capitalization of approximately HKD 210.595 billion and a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 6.01x. MarketScreener showed forecast P/E ratios of approximately 14.5x, 10.9x and 10.0x for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively. Based on a share price of HKD 316.60 and 2026 consensus EPS of RMB 20.67, a rough conversion implies a 2026 forecast P/E ratio of approximately 14x to 15x, broadly consistent with 14.5x. However, this conversion involves the RMB/HKD exchange rate, for which the report does not provide a specific assumption, and therefore should not be regarded as a precise valuation. At HKD 316.60, the etnet broker target-price range was HKD 345.54 to HKD 563, while Futu’s aggregated average target price was approximately HKD 462.71, approximately 46% above the current share price. The lowest target price was approximately 9% above the current share price. Ratings were broadly positive, but the 2026 net-profit forecast range of RMB 7.196 billion to RMB 17.169 billion indicates substantial disagreement. P/E ratios across platforms may use GAAP net profit, adjusted net profit, or different exchange-rate and share-count assumptions, and therefore cannot be compared directly without adjustment. Potential upside also excludes foreign-exchange movements, dividends, buybacks, regulatory penalties and earnings-estimate revisions.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Trip.com to Announce Second-Quarter and First-Half 2026 Results on September 16, 2026

Trip.com Group announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 2, 2026 that the audit committee of the board would review the financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, on September 14. The company would announce its second-quarter and first-half 2026 results before the Hong Kong market opened on September 16, 2026, Hong Kong time. A management conference call would be held at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on September 15, or 8:00 a.m. Hong Kong time on September 16. As of September 13, 2026, second-quarter revenue, net profit and the latest management guidance had not been formally disclosed. The company’s previous preliminary outlook for second-quarter revenue growth was approximately 3% to 8% and did not represent final results. The market will subsequently focus on accommodation performance, international business, summer travel demand, the impact of antitrust rectification, margins and second-half guidance.

4.2 Capital Group Reduced Its Trip.com Holdings by Approximately 1.820631 Million Shares on September 1, 2026

According to information compiled second-hand from Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosures of interests cited in the research materials, The Capital Group Companies, Inc. reduced its Trip.com holdings by approximately 1.820631 million shares on September 1, 2026, at an average price of approximately HKD 349.7037 per share, involving approximately HKD 637 million. After the reduction, its holdings were approximately 47.2809 million shares and its stake declined to 6.80%. The relevant announcements and media reports were mainly published on September 3, 2026. The institution remained within the disclosure scope for substantial shareholders holding more than 5%. Public information did not indicate the specific reason for the disposal. The above figures still require further verification against the original Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosure documents, including the identity of the holder, the nature of the interest and the filing date.

4.3 Trip.com Listed as an Online Ticketing Platform That Completed Rectification of Airline Overbooking Practices

The Beijing Municipal Administration for Market Regulation published a notice on September 8, 2026, regarding the rectification of airline overbooking practices by 10 airlines and five online ticketing platforms under the organization of the consumer associations of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. As of August 31, 2026, all 10 airlines and five online ticketing platforms previously interviewed had completed rectification, with Trip.com among the platforms. The rectification measures included setting up a mandatory pop-up window on ticket-purchase pages requiring users to read the airline overbooking rules independently, allowing ticket purchases to continue only after travelers confirmed the rules, displaying compensation standards and complaint channels on order-detail pages and after-sales channels, establishing dedicated records for overbooking complaints, and promoting information sharing between online-platform and airline complaint systems. The matter is moderately neutral to positive for Trip.com, but represents an industry-wide rectification, and follow-up inspections remain possible.

4.4 Quantitative Impact of Trip.com’s Antitrust Administrative Penalty and Rectification Remains Unclear

The State Administration for Market Regulation published the administrative penalty decision in the Trip.com antitrust case on July 25, 2026. Trip.com stated on the same day that it accepted the decision and would carry out rectification in accordance with laws and regulations. Public information indicates that the measures included ordering the company to cease the relevant violations, refunding approximately RMB 122 million in order-reservation funds compulsorily deducted from hotel operators, confiscating approximately RMB 1.658 billion in illegal gains, and imposing a fine of approximately RMB 3.521 billion, equivalent to 7.5% of the company’s 2025 domestic China sales. The total amount of fines, confiscated gains and refunds was approximately RMB 5.179 billion. The key subsequent impacts concern exclusive hotel cooperation, lowest-price arrangements across the internet, price-adjustment tools, traffic-allocation mechanisms and revisions to merchant contract terms. These may affect accommodation commission rates, supply quality or profit margins. As of September 13, 2026, no quantitative disclosure had been identified regarding rectification costs, the completion of merchant refunds or the impact on full-year 2026 profit. Nor had a final case-closure document from the regulator been identified.

4.5 No New Buyback, M&A or Earnings-Warning Announcements Identified as of September 13, 2026

Based on Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement records for 09961, Trip.com investor-relations news and public Hong Kong stock announcement aggregation pages, no new September 2026 announcements had been identified as of September 13 regarding share repurchases, share cancellations, material acquisitions, disposals of material assets, or new earnings warnings or forecasts. Trip.com had previously established a share-repurchase program with a maximum authorization of USD 5 billion under its 2025 capital-return policy, but this existing arrangement does not support an inference that a new Hong Kong share repurchase occurred in September 2026. The main formal company announcement that can currently be confirmed for September 2026 concerned the timing of the second-quarter and first-half results.

4.6 Overall Assessment of Recent News: Imminent Results and Ongoing Regulatory Rectification

As of September 13, 2026, recent news regarding 09961 reflected a combination of a clear earnings catalyst, ongoing antitrust rectification, selling by institutional shareholders and improved industry compliance. The most important short-term event is the release of second-quarter and first-half results before the Hong Kong market opens on September 16, 2026. Investors should focus on accommodation performance, international growth, the quantified impact of antitrust rectification, second-quarter margins, second-half guidance and whether new capital-return or buyback arrangements are announced. Media estimates of the impact of the fine, institutional ratings and market expectations should not be treated as official company financial data. Actual second-quarter revenue, net profit and rectification costs still await confirmation in the company’s formal announcement.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

Indicator	Value
Stock	09961 Trip.com Group-S（Trip.com Group Limited）, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and denominated in HKD
Closing price	HKD 305.80
Daily change	Down HKD 3.00 from the previous trading day, a decline of approximately 0.97%
Open/high/low	HKD 304.80 / HKD 307.40 / HKD 303.80
Daily trading volume	Approximately 3.63 million shares
Daily turnover	Approximately HKD 1.11 billion
September 10, 2026 closing price and trading	Closing price HKD 308.80; trading volume approximately 4.225 million shares; turnover approximately HKD 1.30 billion
Market capitalization and valuation (as of September 10, 2026)	Total market capitalization approximately HKD 214.857 billion; trailing P/E approximately 5.27x; forward P/E approximately 13.59x
52-week range	52-week high HKD 613.00; 52-week low HKD 299.20
Recent price movement	Closing price of HKD 349.00 on September 1, 2026 and HKD 305.80 on September 11, 2026, representing a cumulative decline of approximately 12.4% over approximately seven trading days; from approximately HKD 350 to HKD 360 in mid-August, the recent retracement was approximately 14% to 16%

5.2 Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Brief interpretation
Recent trend	The share price declined gradually from approximately HKD 350 to HKD 365 in mid-August; it closed at HKD 325.20 on September 3, HKD 324.20 on September 8, HKD 316.60 on September 9, HKD 308.80 on September 10 and HKD 305.80 on September 11	The share price has fallen below the recent platform around HKD 350 and remains below the 10-day, 20-day, 50-day and longer-term moving averages, indicating a clearly downward trend
etnet moving averages (as of September 10, 2026)	10-day average HKD 337.40; 20-day average HKD 346.67; 50-day average HKD 346.37	Moving averages are generally above the current price, indicating resistance to a short- and medium-term rebound; however, readings differ materially from other platforms
Investing.com moving averages (as of the evening of September 10, 2026)	MA5 HKD 307.76; MA10 HKD 311.16; MA20 HKD 317.43; MA50 HKD 329.48; MA100 HKD 343.65; MA200 HKD 351.68	Short-term moving-average resistance is approximately HKD 310 to HKD 318, while medium-term resistance is approximately HKD 325 to HKD 350; the daily overall rating was “Strong Sell”
RSI(14)	25.964 as of September 10, 2026; approximately 26.339 on another-language page as of September 11	Below 30 and in a relatively oversold area, but oversold conditions do not mean the trend has reversed
MACD	-6.66 as of September 10, 2026; -5.64 on another-language page as of September 11	Still negative, with no clear golden-cross recovery signal
ADX(14)	38.496 as of September 10, 2026; 35.792 on another-language page as of September 11	Approximately 35 to 38, indicating that the current downtrend retains considerable strength
Williams %R	-79.412	Close to oversold territory
ATR(14)	Approximately HKD 2.71	Indicates that the stock continues to exhibit a degree of intraday volatility
Bollinger Bands (independent estimate as of September 11, 2026)	20-day closing-price average approximately HKD 342.23; standard deviation approximately HKD 18.26; middle band approximately HKD 342.2; upper band approximately HKD 378.8; lower band approximately HKD 305.7	The closing price of HKD 305.80 was almost at the estimated lower band, indicating an extremely weak short-term position. The Bollinger Bands are estimated from publicly available historical closing prices and are not official indicators directly disclosed by a market terminal
Recent trading volume	Approximately 5.04 million shares on September 3; 6.80 million on September 4; 3.76 million on September 7; 1.78 million on September 8; 2.84 million on September 9; 4.23 million on September 10; 3.63 million on September 11	Trading volume expanded significantly on September 3 and 4, mainly during price declines, suggesting selling turnover rather than confirmed active accumulation
Turnover	Generally HKD 550 million to HKD 2.2 billion recently; approximately HKD 1.3 billion on September 10 and HKD 1.1 billion on September 11	Turnover was substantial and overall liquidity was good; the stock is not a small-cap stock with low trading volume. However, the recent rapid decline indicates significant disagreement between buyers and sellers
Approximate turnover rate	Estimated at approximately 0.58% based on September 11 trading volume and approximately 629.71 million issued ordinary shares; approximately 0.67% estimated for September 10	This is not an official precise turnover rate published by the exchange. Because Hong Kong ordinary shares, American depositary shares, treasury shares and shares related to incentive plans coexist, the actual public-float basis may differ
Short selling	On September 10, 2026, approximately 2.0382 million shares were short sold, with short-sale turnover of approximately HKD 627 million, or approximately 48.24% of total turnover; on September 11, approximately 1.8293 million shares were short sold, with short-sale turnover of approximately HKD 558 million, or approximately 50.37%	Short selling accounted for nearly half of turnover on the past two days, indicating active short-selling transactions and some short-term pressure. The short-selling ratio does not equal net capital outflows by major investors and cannot independently prove the future direction
Shareholder concentration (as of March 31, 2026)	James Liang approximately 6.5%; directors and senior management approximately 9.4% in aggregate; Capital World Investors approximately 8.9%; Baidu Group and its wholly owned subsidiaries approximately 7.3%; BlackRock approximately 5.2%; the above major shareholders and management together exceeded approximately 30%	The shareholder structure has a degree of concentration and includes founders and management, large institutional investors and strategic shareholders. The data are approximately five and a half months before the price reference date and do not constitute a complete list of the top 10 Hong Kong shareholders, so they cannot represent real-time holdings in September 2026

As of September 11, 2026, 09961 closed at HKD 305.80, close to the 52-week low of HKD 299.20 and the independently estimated lower Bollinger Band of approximately HKD 305.7. The share price fell from HKD 349.00 on September 1 to HKD 305.80 on September 11, a cumulative decline of approximately 12.4% over approximately seven trading days, and remained below multiple short-, medium- and long-term moving averages. RSI was approximately 26 and Williams %R was close to oversold territory, indicating conditions for a short-term technical rebound. However, MACD remained negative, ADX was approximately 35 to 38, and the daily overall rating was “Strong Sell,” suggesting that the stock was closer to an oversold condition within a weak downtrend than to a confirmed bottom. Recent trading volume and turnover were substantial, but the increase in volume mainly accompanied price declines, while short-selling turnover accounted for approximately 48% to 50% on September 10 and 11. The flow picture was therefore primarily characterized by selling turnover and active short selling. Some moving-average and Bollinger Band data differ across platforms, and these indicators should be viewed as reference ranges rather than absolute conclusions.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, publicly available technical indicators and flow proxies. It does not constitute investment advice or a single-point price forecast.

① Key Technical Levels

Level	Range	Explanation
Short-term resistance	HKD 316 to HKD 325	HKD 316 corresponds approximately to the September 9 closing price and the first level that a short-term rebound would need to reclaim; HKD 325 corresponds approximately to the concentrated trading range from September 3 to 8. If HKD 325 is broken on increased volume, the HKD 330 to HKD 340 area may be considered next.
First support	HKD 299 to HKD 306	HKD 306 is close to the September 11 closing price and the estimated lower 20-day Bollinger Band; HKD 299.20 is the disclosed 52-week low. If HKD 299.20 is broken, the existing first support zone may fail.
Strong support	HKD 290 to HKD 299	HKD 299.20 is the current known 52-week low. If the stock closes decisively below HKD 299, the market may seek the next support around HKD 290 to HKD 295. This range is based on round-number levels, volatility and downside-breakout risk, and is not yet a confirmed historical support level.

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

Low-level consolidation (relatively higher weighting, approximately 60%; a subjective heuristic weight rather than a statistical probability): The observed range would be approximately HKD 300 to HKD 325. Trigger conditions include holding HKD 299 to HKD 306, turnover remaining around HKD 800 million to HKD 1.5 billion, no clear further increase in the short-selling ratio, RSI recovering upward from oversold territory, and the stock reclaiming HKD 306 to HKD 310. If sentiment improves, the stock could further test the HKD 316 to HKD 325 resistance zone. With MACD still negative and the share price below medium- and long-term moving averages, this would be more appropriately defined as consolidation and recovery after an oversold decline rather than a trend reversal.
Weak downward movement (medium weighting, approximately 20% to 30%; a subjective heuristic weight rather than a statistical probability): The observed range would be approximately HKD 290 to HKD 300. Trigger conditions include a close below the 52-week low of HKD 299.20, a clear increase in daily turnover during declines to above approximately HKD 1.5 billion, short-selling turnover remaining at approximately 50% or higher, and simultaneous weakness in the Hang Seng TECH Index or the Chinese internet sector. If HKD 299 is broken on increased volume, the share price may seek a new equilibrium around HKD 290 to HKD 295. Until HKD 306 to HKD 310 is reclaimed, rebounds may still represent weak rallies.
Stronger rebound (relatively lower weighting, approximately 10% to 20%; a subjective heuristic weight rather than a statistical probability): The observed range would be approximately HKD 325 to HKD 340. Trigger conditions include first stabilizing above HKD 310, then breaking through HKD 316 to HKD 325 on clearly increased volume, daily turnover remaining above approximately HKD 1.5 billion, a decline in the short-selling ratio or clear short covering, and a simultaneous rebound in Chinese internet stocks and the Hang Seng TECH Index. If HKD 325 is decisively broken, HKD 330 to HKD 340 would be the next observation zone. A further break above HKD 340 to HKD 347 would be needed to form a stronger short-term recovery structure. Oversold RSI alone is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Recent daily trading volume was approximately 1.8 million to 6.8 million shares, with turnover of approximately HKD 550 million to HKD 2.2 billion. Short-selling turnover accounted for approximately 48% to 50% on September 10 and 11. Based on approximately 629.71 million issued ordinary shares, the approximate turnover rates on September 10 and 11 were 0.67% and 0.58%, respectively. However, this is not an official precise turnover rate published by the exchange, and the actual public float may differ. Overall, 09961 had substantial turnover and good liquidity and was not a small-cap stock with low trading volume. However, short selling was active in the short term and the price was declining rapidly, indicating significant disagreement between buyers and sellers. Shareholder-concentration data as of March 31, 2026 showed James Liang at approximately 6.5%, management at approximately 9.4% in aggregate, Capital World Investors at approximately 8.9%, Baidu Group and its wholly owned subsidiaries at approximately 7.3%, and BlackRock at approximately 5.2%. The above major shareholders and management together accounted for more than approximately 30%. These included founders and management, large institutional investors and strategic shareholders, but the data had a lag of approximately five and a half months and did not constitute a complete list of the top 10 Hong Kong shareholders; the ownership structure may have changed. Hong Kong stocks lack a fully standardized public statistical measure equivalent to the “net inflow of major-investor funds” commonly used in the A-share market. Trading volume, turnover and short-selling ratios are therefore only proxy indicators of capital flows.

If daily turnover were to remain above HKD 1.5 billion in the coming week and the share price were able to close above the HKD 316 to HKD 325 range, this could be viewed as an observational signal that capital support was strengthening. If turnover increased while the share price nevertheless fell below HKD 299, the move would be closer to heavy-volume selling or short-seller dominance than to active capital inflows.

④ Points to Monitor (Observational Framework Only, Not Trading Instructions)

Observe whether the share price can hold the HKD 299 to HKD 306 range, especially whether the 52-week low of HKD 299.20 is decisively broken.
Observe whether a rebound can reclaim HKD 310 and then break through the HKD 316 to HKD 325 resistance zone.
Observe whether daily turnover repeatedly exceeds approximately HKD 1.5 billion and whether the share price rises or falls when volume expands.
Observe whether the short-selling ratio can decline from approximately 48% to 50%. If the share price rebounds while the short-selling ratio remains high, the sustainability of the rebound should still be assessed cautiously. The above are observational considerations only and not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share-price movements will also be affected by news flow, capital flows, the broader market environment, short selling and the performance of Chinese internet stocks. Technical indicators have inherent lag and limitations. This analysis does not guarantee future actual performance and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear their own investment risks.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Overview

Trip.com operates in the online travel platform, online travel agency (OTA) and integrated travel services industries. These industries use digital platforms to connect hotels, airlines, railways, packaged-tour providers and destination activity suppliers with individual and corporate travelers. Revenue is generally recognized on a net basis as commissions, service fees or referral fees.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

Supply is highly digitized, and hotels, airlines and destination service providers obtain orders through platforms.
Air-ticketing is large in scale but generally has lower commission rates; hotels, packaged tours and destination activities generally have higher commission or service-fee rates.
User traffic, brand, price, inventory depth, supply-chain integration, customer service and technology capabilities are core competitive factors.
Airlines, hotel groups and content platforms may be both partners and competitors through direct sales or traffic gateways.
The industry is seasonal, with the third quarter generally benefiting from strong summer travel demand.
Competition in China is gradually shifting from simple price competition toward competition in supply chains, content, membership systems, cross-border services, corporate travel and artificial-intelligence recommendation capabilities.
Public market estimates of 2024 China domestic OTA GMV suggested approximately 56% for Trip.com, 15% for Tongcheng, 13% for Meituan, 8% for Fliggy and 3% for Douyin. These figures were relayed second-hand from brokerage estimates rather than being official statistics from Trip.com’s annual report or regulators and should not be regarded as precise market shares.

6.3 Major Competitors

Company	Positioning	Explanation
Tongcheng Travel（00780.HK）	Domestic integrated OTA platform focused on lower-tier markets, the WeChat ecosystem, air tickets, hotels, train tickets and attraction tickets	Leverages Tencent’s ecosystem and WeChat gateway and has strong coverage in lower-tier cities and the mass-market travel segment; competes and cooperates with Trip.com. In 2024, Trip.com paid Tongcheng RMB 51 million in commissions and other service fees, while Tongcheng paid Trip.com RMB 274 million.
Meituan Travel	Enters hotels and local tourism through Meituan and Dianping’s local-life, in-store consumption and catering traffic	Competitive in local hotels and short-distance travel scenarios; generally behind Trip.com in international air tickets, long-haul cross-border travel, integrated corporate travel services and global supply chains.
Fliggy (Alibaba)	Online travel platform leveraging Taobao, Alipay and the Alibaba ecosystem, covering air tickets, hotels, vacations and outbound travel	Benefits from e-commerce traffic, payment infrastructure and merchant-operation capabilities, competing directly with Trip.com in air tickets, hotels, outbound travel and packaged-tour products while embedding its travel business in the broader e-commerce ecosystem.
Booking Holdings	Major global online accommodation and travel platform, with brands including Booking.com, Agoda, Priceline and Kayak	Has brand and supply-chain advantages in Europe, North America and international accommodation markets. As of the end of 2024, it had approximately 4 million properties, including approximately 3.5 million alternative-accommodation properties and approximately 500,000 hotels, motels and resorts. Comparable with Trip.com in international hotels, cross-border accommodation and competition for global users.
Expedia Group	Global integrated OTA group with brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo and Orbitz	Covers hotels, alternative accommodation, air travel, car rentals, cruises, insurance and destination activities. As of the end of 2024, it offered more than 3.5 million accommodation properties, more than 500 airlines and various travel products. Comparable with Trip.com in international OTA and cross-border travel scenarios.

Compared with Tongcheng, Trip.com is more focused on integrated travel services, global supply chains, cross-border Chinese travelers and corporate travel services. Compared with Meituan, Trip.com has greater platform breadth in international air tickets, long-haul cross-border travel and global supply chains. Compared with Fliggy, Trip.com is more focused on a specialized travel-platform model, while Fliggy is embedded in Alibaba’s integrated e-commerce ecosystem. Compared with Booking Holdings and Expedia, Trip.com’s advantages are more concentrated in China, Asian users, cross-border Chinese travelers and integrated transportation services. Other competitors include direct-sales channels of hotels and airlines, traditional travel agencies, content platforms and social networks.

7. Risk Factors

Antitrust penalties and rectification may depress accommodation-business profitability: Trip.com was fined approximately RMB 3.521 billion and required to confiscate approximately RMB 1.658 billion in illegal gains and refund approximately RMB 122 million in order-reservation funds. Adjustments to exclusive hotel cooperation, lowest-price arrangements across the internet, price-adjustment tools, traffic-allocation mechanisms and merchant contracts may affect accommodation commission rates, supply quality and margins. The company has not yet disclosed the full-year quantitative impact.
2025 net profit faces significant non-operating volatility risk: net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 33.294 billion and net margin approximately 53.4%. A substantial portion of the increase came from investment gains, fair-value changes and gains from associates, including the partial disposal of MakeMyTrip interests. If such gains do not recur, net profit could decline materially, and 2025 profit cannot be directly extrapolated to future earnings.
Core earnings growth has shown signs of slowing: first-quarter 2026 revenue increased 17% year on year, but GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders declined approximately 42% and non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders also declined approximately 6.8%. The company’s preliminary outlook for second-quarter revenue growth was only 3% to 8%. If accommodation, international business or summer travel demand falls below expectations, earnings forecasts could be lowered further.
Limited bargaining power with large suppliers: major airlines and hotel chains have brands, inventory and direct-sales channels and may increase direct sales, reduce reliance on platforms or shift to other platforms. Transportation ticketing accounted for approximately 36% of 2025 revenue but generally has lower commission rates. If growth comes mainly from transportation ticketing rather than accommodation and destination activities, revenue growth may not translate proportionately into profit growth.
High competition and traffic-diversion risk: Tongcheng, Meituan, Fliggy and Douyin compete for travel orders using WeChat, local services, e-commerce and payment infrastructure, and content traffic, respectively. Direct-sales channels of hotels and airlines may also reach end users directly. Trip.com must continue investing in marketing, technology, membership and customer-service systems, which may limit margin improvement.
Working-capital usage and cash-flow volatility may increase: as of the end of 2025, accounts receivable were approximately RMB 15.241 billion and prepayments and other current assets approximately RMB 23.982 billion. Operating cash flow in 2025 was approximately RMB 14.379 billion, below RMB 19.625 billion in 2024, mainly due to increases in prepayments and other current assets. This indicates that the platform-based settlement model is not completely insulated from supplier settlement and the expansion of financial services.
Share price and capital flows remain weak: as of September 11, 2026, the share price was HKD 305.80, close to the 52-week low of HKD 299.20 and below multiple moving averages. MACD was negative, ADX approximately 35 to 38, and short-selling turnover accounted for approximately 48% to 50% on September 10 and 11. If HKD 299.20 is broken with increased turnover, short-term downside pressure could intensify.
Changes in institutional holdings may increase market volatility: Capital Group reduced its holdings by approximately 1.820631 million shares on September 1, 2026, involving approximately HKD 637 million, and its stake fell to approximately 6.80%. Holdings of major shareholders and management together exceeded approximately 30%, but some data were as of March 31, 2026 and did not constitute a complete list of the top 10 holders. Subsequent changes in holdings may affect share-price liquidity and market expectations.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Trip.com’s core growth thesis remains its global supply network, brand and customer-service systems, and continued improvement in its business mix through accommodation, packaged tours, destination activities and corporate travel services. Accommodation reservation growth exceeded transportation-ticketing growth in 2025, indicating some support from the rising contribution of higher-commission businesses. Revenue continued to grow 17% in the first quarter of 2026, while adjusted earnings and adjusted EBITDA also indicated resilience in core operations. At the same time, the average 2026 revenue forecast is approximately RMB 67.4 billion, representing continued growth from actual 2025 revenue, while the earnings forecast midpoint of approximately RMB 13.165 billion is substantially below 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders. This indicates that the market has incorporated the decline in non-recurring investment gains and the impact of regulatory rectification.

The key short-term variables are the second-quarter and first-half 2026 results and management’s latest comments on accommodation, international business, margins, the impact of antitrust rectification and operating trends in the second half. The antitrust penalty involved a fine of approximately RMB 3.521 billion, confiscation of approximately RMB 1.658 billion in illegal gains and the refund of approximately RMB 122 million in order-reservation funds. The impact of subsequent adjustments to hotel cooperation, pricing tools, traffic allocation and merchant contracts on accommodation commission rates and supply quality has not yet been quantified.

Technically, if the share price can hold HKD 299 to HKD 306 and reclaim HKD 310, the HKD 316 to HKD 325 resistance zone may be the next area to monitor. If HKD 299.20 is broken on increased volume, HKD 290 to HKD 299 may become the new observation range. These ranges reflect technical scenarios as of September 11, 2026 only. Subsequent performance will depend on earnings delivery, regulatory rectification, market sentiment, short-selling activity and the performance of Chinese internet stocks, and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation.

Data Sources

This report was automatically searched, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is current through the Hong Kong market close on September 11, 2026; some quotations are delayed by at least 15 minutes, and technical indicators are calculated by third-party platforms using different methodologies. There may be differences in timeliness; specific data should be verified against the company’s formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.

Reports are generated by AI from public online information and may contain errors or outdated information. They are for research only, not investment advice. Verify material facts against company filings and authoritative sources.