Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (000338)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Auto Parts — Chassis & Engine Systems | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the close on September 11, 2026, the following price, trading, and technical indicator data are all based on information contained in the research notes

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

I. Core Summary

Weichai Power achieved operating revenue of RMB 123.163 billion in the first half of 2026, up 8.85% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.701 billion, up 36.46% year-on-year, but this included substantial non-recurring gains. Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was RMB 6.119 billion, up 18.86% year-on-year, meaning the improvement in operating profitability was lower than the growth rate of attributable net profit. The company's full-year 2025 revenue was RMB 231.809 billion with attributable net profit of RMB 10.931 billion; revenue grew 7.47% but attributable net profit declined 4.15%. The sustainability of the profit recovery still needs to be observed in conjunction with subsequent segment performance.

The company has a five-business collaborative structure spanning powertrain, commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, smart logistics, and power/energy. In FY2025, powertrain/complete vehicles and key components accounted for 43.32% of revenue, smart logistics accounted for 39.29%, and overseas revenue exceeded half of total revenue. In the first half of 2026, sales of engines, axles, and data center power generation products grew, with data center power generation product sales exceeding the full-year 2025 scale, and the power/energy segment's contribution to attributable net profit rising to 20%; meanwhile, KION's net profit recovered substantially year-on-year, constituting an important source of earnings improvement.

The company's growth logic is extending from traditional heavy trucks and powertrains to AIDC data center power generation, natural gas power generation, SOFC, power batteries, and overseas smart logistics. However, a significant portion of the profit increment in the first half of 2026 still came from one-off investment gains. Order intake, delivery, and profit realization in the AIDC and power/energy businesses remain key to medium-term earnings elasticity. Market consensus estimates project attributable net profit of approximately RMB 14.62 billion, RMB 17.94 billion, and RMB 21.62 billion for 2026–2028, but forecasts vary considerably across institutions.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's A-share closing price was RMB 26.33, with a dynamic PE of approximately 14.79x, PE (TTM) of approximately 17.6–17.9x, and PB of approximately 2.37–2.41x. The stock price recently peaked on September 9 before pulling back, with the closing price below MA5, MA10, and MA20, exhibiting high-level consolidation with a weak bias in the short term; the RMB 26.0–26.3 area is the main support, while resistance is concentrated around RMB 27.5–28.1.

II. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Power systems (full-series engines, transmissions, axles, hydraulic products): Weichai engines, Fast transmissions, Hande axles, Linde hydraulics
• Commercial vehicles (heavy-duty trucks): Shacman heavy trucks (Shaanxi Heavy-Duty Automobile)
• Agricultural equipment: Weichai Lovol Smart Agriculture
• Smart logistics: Germany's KION Group (including Linde and Still forklifts and Dematic supply chain solutions)
• Power/energy: Fuel cell systems and components; large-bore engines (data center backup power)

2.3 Industry Chain Position and Cost-Profit Structure

The company's vision is to "build a technology-leading, green-development, world-class high-end equipment multinational group," constructing a five-industry collaborative structure of "power systems, commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, smart logistics, and power/energy" (East Money F10). Main products include full-series engines, transmissions, axles, hydraulic products, heavy-duty trucks, forklifts, supply chain solutions, fuel cell systems and components, agricultural equipment, automotive electronics and components; engine products are exported to more than 150 countries and regions worldwide (different sources cite 110/150; East Money F10 latest figure is over 150 countries). FY2024 total operating revenue was RMB 215.691 billion (+0.81% YoY), attributable net profit was RMB 11.403 billion (+26.51% YoY), gross margin was 22.4% (+2.1pct YoY), and net operating cash flow was RMB 26.094 billion; FY2025 total operating revenue was RMB 231.809 billion (+7.47% YoY), attributable net profit was RMB 10.931 billion (-4.15% YoY), and weighted ROE was 12.08%. Revenue structure by product (FY2025): powertrain/complete vehicles and key components RMB 100.411 billion (43.32%, +11.84% YoY); smart logistics RMB 91.077 billion (39.29%, +2.65% YoY); agricultural equipment RMB 18.789 billion (8.11%, +2.42% YoY); other components RMB 11.876 billion (5.12%, +17.71% YoY); others RMB 9.657 billion (4.17%). By region (FY2024): overseas RMB 119.774 billion (55.5%, gross margin 23.51%); mainland China RMB 95.917 billion (gross margin 21.09%), with overseas accounting for more than half.

• Input categories: Primarily internal combustion engine powertrain manufacturing; core inputs are steel (including scrap steel), castings and forgings, and large quantities of outsourced/purchased components (pistons, crankshafts, turbochargers, electronic controls, fuel injection systems, etc.).
• Cost structure: A Guosen Securities research report dated 2008-12-16 stated that approximately 12% of Weichai engine costs were direct steel procurement costs and approximately 70% were purchased outsourced components; steel procurement was on a monthly cycle, mostly scrap steel. ⚠️ This data comes from an old 2008 research report; the industry and product structure have changed substantially since then. It is for historical reference only and cannot represent the current cost structure; no updated company-disclosed cost breakdown was found, which is a weak point requiring re-verification.
• Supplier concentration: In 2021, the company's top five suppliers accounted for total procurement of RMB 17.494 billion, representing 10.67% of annual procurement (source: NetEase/CSI Caixun citing the 2021 annual report). No updated supplier concentration data was found. Overall assessment: suppliers are relatively dispersed, and the company as a large-scale purchaser has strong bargaining power over upstream.
• Price acceptance: Steel/casting prices are commodity-priced; the company is more of a price taker at this stage.
• Related-party cost side: The 2025 audit report shows that receivables financing/notes receivable counterparties are largely related-party vehicle and construction machinery enterprises (Shantui Shares, Sinotruk Aftermarket, Zhongtong Bus, Weichai New Energy Commercial Vehicles, Lovol Heavy Industry, etc.), indicating that the company has a large scale of intra-group upstream and downstream related-party transactions.
• Customer groups: Downstream is mainly heavy truck/construction machinery/bus OEMs, including related parties within the Shandong Heavy Industry system such as Sinotruk and Shacman.
• Customer concentration (all from the company's annual report "major customers" disclosure, needs verification against the latest annual report): FY2021 top five customers totaled RMB 33.366 billion, representing 16.39% of annual sales; FY2022 top five customers totaled RMB 18.926 billion, representing 10.81% (of which related-party sales 0.00%); FY2023 top five customers totaled RMB 37.579 billion, representing 17.56%, of which related parties (largest customer Shandong Heavy Industry) accounted for 8.36% (RMB 17.877 billion). ⚠️ Only these three years of data were found; FY2024/FY2025 top five customer proportions were not retrieved and need to be verified against the latest annual report.
• Structural bargaining dynamics: In the heavy truck and construction machinery components industry, OEMs generally exert "annual price reduction" pressure on suppliers; however, Weichai has technological and market share advantages in heavy truck engines (2024 heavy truck engine market share approximately 38.7%, source: Ping An Securities 2025-04-11 research report citing company financials), giving it significantly stronger bargaining power than ordinary Tier-1 component suppliers. At the same time, the company achieves vertical integration through controlling vehicle OEMs (Shacman), partially hedging downstream price pressure.
• Market share discrepancy note: A Cailianshe page also shows "heavy truck engine market share 28.9%," suspected to be a multi-year-old figure from the context of a 2020-era private placement/announcement, conflicting with 38.7%. Do not mix them; refer to the latest annual report. On the transmission side, Fast's heavy truck transmission market share is 75.2% (this figure appears on the Cailianshe page, suspected to be from an earlier year and requires verification).
• Accounts receivable concentration (top five receivables disclosed in annual report): At end-2021, top five totaled RMB 2.928 billion, representing 14.29% of receivables balance; at end-2022, top five totaled RMB 2.601 billion, representing 10.57%. The company stated it "does not face significant credit concentration risk" (source: Sina Finance annual report announcement page). Accounts receivable turnover: 12.16x in 2021, inventory turnover 5.21x (source: CSI Caixun citing 2021 annual report); ⚠️ Turnover data for 2023–2025 was not retrieved. Regarding related-party transactions, the 2025 audit report shows that receivables financing/notes receivable counterparties are largely related-party vehicle and construction machinery enterprises (Shantui Shares, Sinotruk Aftermarket, Zhongtong Bus, Weichai New Energy Commercial Vehicles, Lovol Heavy Industry, etc.), indicating a large scale of intra-group upstream and downstream related-party transactions; evidence of bargaining relationships needs further verification against the latest annual report.
• Customer concentration: FY2021 top five customers accounted for 16.39%, FY2022 10.81%, FY2023 17.56% (of which related party Shandong Heavy Industry accounted for 8.36%); this data set comes from the company's annual report "major customers" disclosure, covering only 2021–2023, with FY2024/FY2025 data missing and requiring verification against the latest annual report (the data source is annual report announcements, but the latest annual figures still need confirmation). Supplier concentration: In 2021, top five suppliers accounted for 10.67% of annual procurement (source: NetEase/CSI Caixun citing 2021 annual report). No updated data was found; single source, not cross-verified, refer to the latest annual report. Market share: 2024 heavy truck engine market share approximately 38.7% (source: Ping An Securities research report), but the old Cailianshe figure of 28.9% conflicts with it; both are second-hand citations and should be based on the company's latest annual report/earnings call figures.

Weichai Power occupies a position in the upper-middle reaches of the industry chain as a "powertrain system integrator + core components" player, but through controlling vehicle OEMs (Shacman), transmissions (Fast), axles (Hande), and overseas smart logistics (KION), it has achieved strong vertical integration and brand premium, with a profit center higher than typical mid-stream processing component enterprises (gross margin above 20% rather than single digits); the core driver for further gross margin improvement comes from overseas revenue already exceeding half, and structural volume growth of high-margin products such as large-bore/data center/gas engines, rather than simple cost compression.

III. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The latest financial report is the 2026 interim report (disclosed at end-August 2026), with figures from Securities Star, CITIC Securities Q2 review (reposted by Jiufang Zhitou), and Guotai Haitong interim review — three sources consistent. 2026H1 attributable net profit of RMB 7.701 billion includes substantial non-recurring gains (reduction of Ballard, Canada holdings boosted investment income; non-recurring items +RMB 1.087 billion YoY), with attributable net profit after deducting non-recurring items at RMB 6.119 billion, +18.86% YoY, significantly lower than the attributable growth rate; 2026H1 gross margin 21.46%, debt ratio 64.49%, investment income RMB 1.514 billion, financial expenses RMB 646 million, H1 EPS approximately RMB 0.891 (diluted). Historical quarterly/annual series from Securities Star financial indicator page; 2024H1 diluted EPS of RMB 0.68 from Jiemian News.

Full-year 2025 attributable net profit declined 4.15% YoY, while 2026H1 returned to +36.46% high growth. Institutions attribute this mainly to AIDC power generation/power-energy business volume growth, KION Germany recovery, and investment gains. Profit increment structure (CITIC Securities methodology): Of the 26H1 group attributable YoY increment of RMB 2.058 billion, non-recurring items contributed +RMB 1.087 billion, and operating increment totaled RMB 632 million (KION +RMB 580 million, Shacman +RMB 327 million, Fast +RMB 75 million, Lovol +RMB 12 million, parent company -RMB 362 million). Note that H1 attributable high growth includes substantial non-recurring gains; when making valuation/growth judgments, use deducted non-recurring or segment profits as the primary basis to avoid overestimating operating growth.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

The forecast table uses East Money consensus estimates (ProfitForecast page soft version, more recently updated, whose "previous month forecast" exactly equals the web version current value; detailed report dates extend to 2026-08-29 at the latest). It is a multi-institution average, not official data, with significant divergence across institutions: Guosen Securities (2026-05-22, Outperform) forecasts 2026/27/28 attributable net profit of RMB 14.673/17.731/20.698 billion, EPS 1.68/2.03/2.38; Guotai Haitong (2026-09-04, Overweight) forecasts EPS RMB 1.79/2.21/2.74; Soochow Securities (2026-09-05, Buy) forecasts attributable net profit of RMB 15.037/20.325/24.643 billion, EPS 1.74/2.35/2.85; Huachuang Securities (2026-09-07, Strong Buy) forecasts attributable net profit of RMB 14.6/20.2/24.0 billion; at the start of the year (January–March 2026), many institutions forecast EPS of only RMB 1.37–1.64, rapidly revised upward to RMB 1.68–1.79 from May–September, reflecting the rapid heating of the AIDC power generation logic and low forecast stability. Separately, according to Tonghuashun as of 2026-05-06, 2026 net profit forecasts range from a high of RMB 15.257 billion to a low of RMB 14.007 billion, with a mean of approximately RMB 14.37 billion (+31.5% YoY).

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of the 2026-09-11 close, the stock price was RMB 26.33 (down approximately 1.86% on the day; high 26.57, low 26.03, previous close 26.83), total market cap RMB 227.497 billion, circulating A-share market cap RMB 130.502 billion. Valuation multiples: PE (TTM) 17.52x, PE (static) 20.81x, dynamic PE 14.77x, PB 2.37x; dividend yield (TTM) approximately 2.78%, dividend per share (TTM) RMB 0.73. PE (TTM) corresponds to TTM attributable net profit of approximately RMB 12.99 billion; PE (static) corresponds to 2025 annual report attributable net profit of RMB 10.931 billion; dynamic PE is calculated by simple annualization of 2026H1 EPS of RMB 0.891 (implying 2026E EPS ≈ RMB 1.78). Based on the consensus H2 EPS of RMB 1.68, 2026E PE is approximately 15.7x; 2027E approximately 12.8x; 2028E approximately 10.6x (self-calculated at the price of RMB 26.33). 52-week range: moomoo methodology low of RMB 12.92, high of RMB 35.97; Soochow report records one-year low/high of RMB 13.65/36.34 (2026-09-04). Sector position: Auto parts sector market cap ranking 1/244, A-share market cap ranking 68/5218 across both markets. Baidu Stock Connect evaluates it as "valuation at a relatively high historical level, mid-range in the industry." Main uncertainties: 1) Market and valuation data as of the 2026-09-11 close (some pages from 09-02/09-09), not real-time, and A/H share prices are not synchronized; 2) Dynamic PE/static PE/TTM-PE vary considerably across sources (14.52–20.8x), methodology must be specified; 3) 2026H1 attributable high growth includes large non-recurring gains; deducted non-recurring growth is only +18.86%; 4) Consensus estimates exist in both web and soft versions, both being multi-institution averages; 5) Goldman Sachs A-share target price of RMB 48 and RMB 38 conflict; the former has only a single Chinese repost source, low confidence; 6) Institutional target prices overall range approximately RMB 34–44, with the latest (September) trending upward to RMB 41–42; 7) Research report forecasts diverge significantly; attention should be paid to AIDC business realization risk (institutional risk warnings: AIDC construction/expansion below expectations, raw material/natural gas price increases, heavy truck and overseas economic downturn, emission policy below expectations, etc.).

IV. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026 Interim Report Disclosure

The 8th meeting of the 7th Board of Directors was held on 2026-08-27 for review and approval, disclosed on 2026-08-28. 2026H1 attributable net profit was RMB 7.701 billion (RMB 7,701,265,400); as of 2026-06-30, consolidated distributable profit was RMB 68.268 billion (parent company RMB 48.553 billion). The company stated that 2026H1 operating revenue grew +8.8% YoY and attributable net profit grew +36.5% YoY, "the best performance in history" (this growth rate comes from moomoo/Radar Finance 2026-09-09 relay of investor relations activity announcement; precise growth rates should be based on the company's interim report original text). 2026Q2 single-quarter operating revenue was approximately RMB 60.5998 billion (published figure), EPS approximately RMB 0.49 (source: investing.com/moomoo financial report page, overseas market data site methodology, for reference only).

4.2 Southwest Securities Research Report: Core Business Resilient, AIDC Power Accelerating Breakthrough (2026-09-08)

26H1 gross margin 21.5%, -0.7pp YoY; period expense ratio 13.1%, -2.0pp YoY; 26H1 exchange loss of RMB 770 million (prior year period exchange gain of RMB 560 million). Q2 attributable profit high growth includes one-off contribution: reduction of 15.029 million Ballard shares, generating non-current asset disposal gain of RMB 1.33 billion; but deducted non-recurring attributable still +17.6% YoY, +4.8% QoQ. H1 net operating cash flow RMB 11.35 billion, +66.0% YoY. H1 engine sales 415,000 units (+13.2%), of which M-series large-bore engines 6,700 units (+31.5%); transmissions 481,000 units (+3.9%); axles 567,000 units (+17.7%); new energy power batteries 4.7GWh (+103%). Shacman complete vehicles 76,000 units (+5.1%), of which exports 31,000 units (+16%); new energy heavy truck sales +45% YoY. Data center power generation products H1 sales over 1,400 units (+137% YoY), already exceeding full-year 2025 scale; total power generation product sales approximately 65,000 units (+31.3%); power/energy contribution to attributable net profit increased 2pp YoY to 20%. KION H1 net profit RMB 1.53 billion, +434.4% YoY. Earnings forecast: 26-28 attributable net profit RMB 14.97/17.29/20.14 billion, EPS RMB 1.73/2.00/2.33, maintaining "Buy" (single brokerage forecast, not multi-institution consensus, for reference only). Uncertainty: The above operational details (especially "reduction of 15.029 million Ballard shares, disposal gain of RMB 1.33 billion") are currently only found in the Southwest Securities research report and were not cross-verified with the company's original announcement or a second source in this search; please use with caution.

4.3 Intensive Investor Relations Activity Disclosures

2026-09-09 investor relations announcement (post-interim report survey): Data center diesel generator H1 sales over 1,400 units, exceeding full-year 2025; gas power products expected to begin delivery in 2026, with high growth next year; power battery H1 sales approximately 4.7GWh (doubled YoY), revenue approximately RMB 2.6 billion (+113%), Yantai new energy industrial base capacity accelerating release; 2026 interim dividend payout ratio increased to 58%, cumulative dividends since listing (including buybacks) RMB 46.4 billion. 2026-07-20 investor relations activity record (disclosed 2026-07-21): The company's power/energy business officially upgraded to an independent group business segment in 2026; SOFC has passed EU CE certification and completed 40 full-item certification tests, striving for mass production within the year; building a "diesel power generation + natural gas power generation + SOFC" full spectrum.

4.4 2026 Interim Profit Distribution Plan

Approved by the Board on 2026-08-27 (under the authorization of the 2025 annual general meeting, no further shareholder meeting required), announced on 2026-08-28 (No. 2026-053): Based on total shares entitled to profit distribution of 8,640,220,621 shares, cash dividend of RMB 5.17 per 10 shares (including tax), no bonus shares, no capitalization of reserves; estimated total distribution of approximately RMB 4.467 billion (RMB 4,466,994,061.06). Interim dividend payout ratio increased from 55% in the prior year period to 58%.

4.5 Historical Dividend Rhythm (for Reference)

2024 annual dividend RMB 3.47 per 10 shares (implemented 2025-07-25); 2025 interim dividend RMB 3.58 per 10 shares (implemented 2025-10-24).

4.6 A-Share Buyback Plan Completed and Cancelled

Approved by the Board on 2025-04-29 and the shareholders' meeting on 2025-05-20; total funds RMB 500–1,000 million, price cap originally RMB 23.57/share, adjusted to RMB 22.86/share due to dividends; term 12 months (2025-05-20 to 2026-05-19). Actual buyback period: 2025-06-23 to 2025-09-04; cumulative A-share buyback of 50,252,475 shares (approximately 50.2525 million shares), representing approximately 0.58% of total share capital; transaction prices RMB 14.57–15.43/share; total payment RMB 761 million (RMB 761,492,999.13, excluding fees). Buyback term expired 2026-05-19; cancellation completed 2026-05-26, total share capital reduced from 8,712,397,096 shares to 8,662,144,621 shares. Note: Some media headlines wrote "503 million shares" — this is a typo; the actual figure is 50.2525 million shares / approximately 50.3 million shares, per the company announcement of 50,252,475 shares.

4.7 Cancellation of Certain A-Share Restricted Shares Through Buyback

The 8th meeting of the 7th Board on 2026-08-27 approved the "Proposal on Cancellation of Certain A-Share Restricted Shares Through Buyback": Due to job transfers, retirement, and resignation of 5 former incentive recipients under the 2023 A-share restricted stock incentive plan, 132,000 shares are to be cancelled through buyback, after which registered capital will decrease from RMB 8,640,220,621 to RMB 8,640,088,621. Announcement No. 2026-057 (2026-08-28). Earlier similar operations: 2025-10 cancellation of 2.09 million shares (14 incentive recipients), 2025-04 cancellation of 1.89 million shares (9 incentive recipients).

4.8 Board Secretary Change

The 6th extraordinary board meeting of 2026 was held on 2026-07-17: Wang Li resigned as Board Secretary due to job transfer; Hao Qinggui was appointed as Board Secretary (term until the expiration of the 7th Board).

4.9 Director Change

Yuan Hongming resigned as Executive Director and member of the Strategy Development and Investment Committee due to reaching statutory retirement age (announced 2026-07-03, 5th extraordinary board meeting of 2026); Liu Yi was elected as Executive Director of the 7th Board (still subject to shareholder meeting approval). Yuan Hongming holds 1,000,440 company shares (approximately 0.0115%).

4.10 2023 A-Share Restricted Stock Incentive Plan First Unlocking Period

Announced 2025-12-20 that unlocking conditions were met; disclosed 2025-12-25 the notice of unlockable shares listing and trading (Announcement Nos. 2025-082, 2025-089).

4.11 Guarantee for Overseas Subsidiary Financing

The 5th extraordinary board meeting of 2026 held on 2026-07-03 approved: joint and several liability guarantee for the financing of wholly-owned overseas subsidiary Weichai Power (Hong Kong) International Development Co., Ltd., with the financing entity intending to apply to financial institutions for a bank loan of no more than EUR 512 million. Announcement No. 2026-042.

4.12 2026 Second Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting Arrangement

Scheduled for 2026-09-14 (on-site at 14:50, online voting 9:15–15:00); record date 2026-09-07; proposals 1–6 to be reviewed are related-party/connected transactions, with related shareholders required to abstain from voting, including the election of one Executive Director. Announcement No. 2026-050 (2026-08-25/26).

4.13 2025 Third Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting Resolution

Held 2025-10-31, announced 2025-11-01 (No. 2025-073): 2,111 shareholders and representatives attended, representing 3,490,828,613 shares (40.2943% of voting shares); approved amendments to the related-party transaction decision-making system, fundraising management measures, investment and operating decision-making system, and adjustments to related-party transactions for sales/procurement of products and services to Weichai Holding Group, etc. (related shareholder Weichai Group abstained from voting).

4.14 Daily Ongoing Related-Party Transaction Announcement

"Daily Ongoing Related-Party Transaction Announcement" published 2025-12-20 (No. 2025-087).

4.15 Policy and Industry-Related

On 2025-03-18, the Ministry of Transport, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Policy on Implementing Renewal of Old Operating Trucks..." (benefiting heavy truck replacement demand). Interim report perspective: 2025 global heavy truck sales grew substantially, with new energy share increasing; increased computing power/data center construction drove demand for high-power backup power and gas distributed energy.

4.16 Uncertainty Notes and Follow-Up Verification Items

1. Timing: The latest data in these notes is as of early September 2026 (inferred from Southwest Securities research report 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-09 reports). The 2026 Q3 report has not yet been disclosed; investing.com indicates the next earnings disclosure is approximately 2026-11-04, at which point updates will be needed. 2. "Reduction of 15.029 million Ballard shares, disposal gain of RMB 1.33 billion" is only seen in the Southwest Securities research report as a single source, not confirmed by company announcement or a second source — this is a key one-off factor in the Q2 profit high growth this period; it must be cross-verified before being included in the report. 3. 2026H1 revenue/net profit YoY growth rates (+8.8%/+36.5%) come from moomoo's relay of the investor relations activity announcement, and while they can mutually corroborate direction with the interim report attributable net profit of RMB 7.701 billion, precise growth rates should be based on the company's interim report original text. 4. Some media headlines incorrectly wrote the buyback volume as "503 million shares"; the actual figure is 50.2525 million shares (approximately 50.3 million shares). 5. Single-quarter/forecast figures (such as Q2 EPS 0.49, Southwest Securities 26-28 earnings forecast) are from a single institution or overseas data source, not Tonghuashun/East Money multi-institution consensus; source and methodology must be noted when citing. 6. No new major announcements for the current month of September 2026 (September to date) were obtained within this search window (such as new contracts signed in September, regulatory inquiries, etc.). If full September coverage is needed, supplementary searches of "Weichai Power September 2026 announcements" and the Cninfo 000338 announcement list should be conducted item by item.

V. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Weichai Power A-shares closed at RMB 26.33, having recently experienced a rebound from the September 2 low of RMB 25.88 to the September 9 high of RMB 27.85 before pulling back, overall showing broad-range consolidation after a high-level pullback. The closing price is below MA5, MA10, and MA20, with a weak short-term trend; support exists near RMB 26.0–26.3, with resistance concentrated around RMB 26.8–27.2 and RMB 27.5–28. MACD and some moving average data differ due to platform refresh timing, adjustment, or calculation methodology. RSI14 has not yet entered the traditional overbought zone, simplified RSI6 is in the neutral zone, and simplified Bollinger Band estimates show the stock price has not yet approached the lower band. Regarding capital, the cumulative net inflow of main capital over the past 5 trading days was mainly contributed by the large inflow on September 9, and subsequent sustainability still needs observation. Shareholder data as of June 30, 2026 shows relatively high top ten shareholder and institutional holding ratios, but there is a disclosure lag.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is purely subjective scenario analysis based on September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices, and publicly available technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice and is not a deterministic prediction of future trends.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weighting, Not Statistical Probability)

• Consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 60%; this is a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical patterns and capital flows, not statistical probability): Price range reference RMB 26.0–27.2. Trigger conditions include holding near RMB 26.0, turnover maintained at approximately RMB 1.8–2.5 billion, main capital not showing consecutive large net outflows, and the broader market and machinery equipment sector not weakening significantly; under this scenario, the stock price may oscillate repeatedly between RMB 26 and RMB 27.2
• Weaker downside (moderate weight; this is subjective judgment, not statistical probability): Price range reference RMB 25.0–26.0. Trigger conditions include an effective close below RMB 26.0, turnover significantly above recent average levels with sustained main capital net outflows, synchronous weakening of machinery equipment or auto parts and heavy truck industry chain, or the RMB 25.84 phased low being breached on increased volume; if the RMB 25.7–26.0 support fails, the price may seek further support near RMB 25, with attention to the Bollinger Band estimated lower band near RMB 24.3
• Rebound and strengthening (lower to moderate weight; this is subjective judgment, not statistical probability): Price range reference RMB 27.2–28.1. Trigger conditions include reclaiming RMB 27.2, single-day turnover rebounding to approximately RMB 3 billion or more, main capital net inflow for two consecutive days, closing above RMB 27.5 and further challenging approximately RMB 28, or catalytic news in data center power generation, power equipment and related industry chains; if the price breaks above RMB 28.1 on increased volume, the resistance level may shift up to approximately RMB 28.5–29.0, but if the price rises without significant volume expansion, it may be a weak rebound or a rally followed by a pullback

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the day's turnover rate was approximately 1.33%, turnover approximately RMB 1.727 billion; over the past 10 trading days, turnover was approximately RMB 1.727–3.086 billion; excluding the abnormal volume day of August 28 at approximately RMB 5.514 billion, the average turnover over the past 10 days is approximately RMB 2.387 billion. Per Securities Star "large orders + block orders" methodology, cumulative main capital net inflow over the past 5 trading days was approximately RMB 459 million, but approximately RMB 439 million of this was concentrated on September 9; sustainability still needs observation. Shareholder structure data as of June 30, 2026: top ten circulating shareholders held approximately 52.89%, top ten shareholders collectively held approximately 60.86%, institutional holdings approximately 43.84% of circulating shares; this data has a quarterly disclosure lag and cannot be directly equated with the real-time chip structure as of September 11, 2026. Combined with the current turnover rate and turnover, Weichai Power is a large-cap, relatively high-liquidity stock, and extreme slippage typical of small-cap stocks is generally unlikely in the short term; however, recent turnover has significantly declined from September 9, indicating weakened immediate absorption of momentum-chasing funds.

The volume confirmation signal to check is: If subsequent single-day turnover reaches approximately RMB 3 billion or more for two consecutive days, while main capital maintains net inflow and pushes the stock price above RMB 27.2, this can be viewed as a confirmation signal of short-term capital strengthening again; if turnover expands to above RMB 3 billion when the price breaks below RMB 26 and main capital shows net outflow, then caution should be taken regarding increased downside pressure.

④ Key Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 26.0–26.3 support zone holds, especially whether the RMB 25.84 phased low can be maintained; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether the stock price can reclaim the RMB 26.8–27.2 resistance zone; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether the RMB 27.7–28.1 area sees a volume breakout or a rally followed by a pullback; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether turnover can continuously rebound to approximately RMB 3 billion or more, and appear in sync with main capital net inflow; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices and technical indicator calculations. Short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors including news, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute guarantees of actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

VI. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

⚠️ The competitor search in this section could not be fully executed (tool call limit reached). The following is based on available fragments and general industry knowledge; a dedicated search is recommended for cross-verification, especially the latest figures for each company's heavy truck engine market share. The company's SW industry classification is Automotive — Auto Parts — Chassis & Engine Systems, with core competition dimensions spanning four major segments: heavy truck/commercial vehicle engines, transmissions, smart logistics/forklifts, and agricultural equipment.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Major players in heavy truck/commercial vehicle engines: Weichai Power (leading independent third-party heavy truck engine player, 2024 heavy truck engine market share approximately 38.7%, source: Ping An Securities 2025-04-11 research report; ⚠️ Cailianshe page also shows "heavy truck engine market share 28.9%," suspected to be a 2020-era figure, conflicting with 38.7%. Do not mix them; refer to the latest annual report), Guangxi Yuchai (independent diesel engine supplier), Sinotruk (also part of the Shandong Heavy Industry related-party system, producing MC/MAN technology engines in-house, a "within-system + competitive" relationship), Cummins (supplying through joint ventures such as Dongfeng Cummins and Foton Cummins, a high-end heavy truck engine competitor), FAW Jiefang (Xichai/Dachai, mainly self-supplied), Yunnei Power, Quanchai Power, Shangchai (medium-light/multi-cylinder diesel engine peers).
• Transmissions: Fast heavy truck transmission market share 75.2% (this figure appears on the Cailianshe page, suspected to be from an earlier year and requires verification).
• Smart logistics/forklifts (KION): Global benchmarks are Toyota Industries and Jungheinrich; domestic benchmarks are Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group.
• Agricultural equipment (Weichai Lovol): Benchmarks are Deere, Kubota, YTO Group (First Tractor), and Zoomlion's agricultural machinery segment.
• Differentiated positioning: Weichai's core differentiation lies in "powertrain integration (engine + transmission + axle) + complete vehicles (Shacman)" vertical打通 (vertical打通), as well as full coverage of multiple energy sources (diesel/natural gas/hydrogen/pure electric) and the new growth point of global AI data center large-bore generator sets; compared to pure engine makers like Yuchai and Yunnei, its system integration and overseas (KION) revenue share are higher.

6.3 Major Competitors

⚠️ The competitive landscape and comparable company shares were not fully cross-verified (tool steps limited) and need to be supplemented. In terms of differentiated positioning, Weichai's core advantage lies in "powertrain integration (engine + transmission + axle) + complete vehicles (Shacman)" vertical打通 (vertical打通), as well as full coverage of multiple energy sources (diesel/natural gas/hydrogen/pure electric) and the new growth point of global AI data center large-bore generator sets; compared to pure engine makers like Yuchai and Yunnei, its system integration and overseas (KION) revenue share are higher. Key uncertainties: Heavy truck engine market share has a conflict between 38.7% (2024, Ping An Securities) and 28.9% (Cailianshe old methodology), both second-hand citations, and should be based on the company's latest annual report/earnings call figures; upstream cost structure (steel 12%, outsourced components 70%) comes only from a 2008 Guosen Securities research report, severely outdated and not usable as the current cost breakdown; customer concentration has only 2021–2023 three years of data, with FY2024/FY2025 top five customer proportions missing; gross margin/net margin methodologies differ across sources (e.g., 2020 gross margin 18.58% vs 19.41%, 2021 net margin 4.31% vs 5.53%), and should be uniformly based on the annual report consolidated methodology; 2026H1 segment data is only seen from a single Sohu Securities source, and segment naming is inconsistent with the annual report, constituting low-confidence reference.

VII. Risk Warnings

• AIDC and data center power generation business realization risk: In the first half of 2026, data center power generation product sales already exceeded full-year 2025, but related growth is still in an accelerated expansion phase; if data center construction, customer expansion, or equipment delivery fall short of expectations, it may affect the profit elasticity of the power/energy business and the market's judgment of the company's growth logic.
• Risk of overestimated profit growth due to non-recurring gains: In the first half of 2026, attributable net profit grew 36.46% year-on-year, but attributable net profit after deducting non-recurring items grew 18.86% year-on-year; investment income increased considerably year-on-year, and if similar gains are absent going forward, the attributable net profit growth rate may decline.
• Risk of KION operating recovery falling short of expectations: In 2025, KION accrued RMB 1.276 billion in related expenses under its efficiency program, impacting Weichai Power's attributable net profit by RMB 393 million; although KION's net profit recovered significantly in the first half of 2026, if restructuring, cost reduction, or overseas logistics demand recovery fall short of expectations, it may still drag on consolidated profitability.
• Risk of declining demand for traditional heavy trucks and powertrains: The company's revenue and profit still rely to a large extent on engines, transmissions, axles, Shacman and other commercial vehicle-related businesses; if heavy truck demand, overseas economies, or the construction machinery market weaken, it may suppress sales volume, capacity utilization, and profit margins.
• Upstream/downstream price and bargaining risk: The company has significant inputs in steel, castings and forgings, and outsourced components; rising upstream commodity prices may squeeze gross margin; at the same time, OEMs exert annual price reduction pressure, and if downstream price pressure is stronger than the company's technology and system integration advantages, gross margin may continue to face pressure.
• Overseas operations and exchange rate risk: The company's overseas revenue share already exceeds half; in the first half of 2026, there was an exchange loss, whereas the prior year period had an exchange gain; if exchange rate volatility widens or overseas market demand and operating environment change, it may affect revenue translation, profit, and cash flow.
• Related-party transaction and customer concentration risk: The company has extensive related-party transactions with vehicle and construction machinery enterprises within the Shandong Heavy Industry system; in 2023, the top five customers accounted for 17.56% of sales, of which related party Shandong Heavy Industry accounted for 8.36%; if demand, settlement, or procurement arrangements of major customers within the group change, it may affect sales and receivables.
• Earnings forecast divergence and valuation volatility risk: Institutional earnings forecasts for 2026–2028 differ significantly, and the heating of the AIDC business has driven rapid upward revisions of some forecasts; if new business volume growth falls short of expectations, the current dynamic valuation and market pricing of forward profits may face adjustment.
• Short-term technical and capital weakening risk: As of September 11, 2026, the stock price is below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and recent main capital net inflow was mainly contributed by a single day on September 9; if the support near RMB 26 fails with expanding turnover and sustained capital net outflows, the stock price may retest toward approximately RMB 25 and the Bollinger Band estimated lower band of RMB 24.3.

VIII. Conclusion and Outlook

Weichai Power's core growth foundation lies in powertrain integration, collaboration across complete vehicles and core components, and structural expansion of overseas smart logistics and power/energy businesses. Traditional engine, transmission, axle, and Shacman businesses maintained growth in the first half of 2026; KION's profit recovery, large-bore engines, and data center power generation product volume growth provided new earnings support for the company to transcend the heavy truck cycle; the interim dividend payout ratio increased to 58%, and the A-share buyback and cancellation has been completed, reflecting a strong shareholder return arrangement.

Whether subsequent performance can continue to improve depends on AIDC power generation equipment delivery and order expansion, natural gas power generation and SOFC mass production progress, power battery capacity release, KION efficiency improvement, and heavy truck and overseas market demand. Judgments about the company's earnings quality should place more emphasis on deducted non-recurring profit and segment operating contributions, and should not simply extrapolate the high attributable net profit growth rate of the first half of 2026.

The company still faces the traditional heavy truck cycle, OEM annual price reduction pressure, overseas operations and exchange rate volatility, and KION efficiency program expenses; at the same time, the current technical pattern is in a consolidation phase after a high-level pullback, with capital net inflow mainly concentrated on a single trading day, and the short-term trend has not yet formed a clear sustained direction.

Data Sources

• Weichai Power (000338.SZ) Core Themes-PC_HSF10 Data - Core Themes
• Weichai Power (sz000338)
• Weichai Power (000338)_Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-time Quotes_Charts_News_Commentary_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• Weichai Power (000338.SZ) In-Depth F9-PC_HSF9 Data
• Weichai Power Co., Ltd. - Stock Code: 000338
• In-Depth F9: Weichai Power (000338)
• rainstock - ≈≈Weichai Power 000338≈≈Weisite Finance www
• Weichai Power (000338.SZ) - Quick Quote
• Weichai Power: 26.33 -1.86% -0.50 000338 Sohu Securities
• Weichai Power: 27.00 3.93% +1.02 000338 Sohu Securities
• Weichai Power (000338)_Main Business Distribution_CFI.cn
• Economic Observer - Weichai Power 2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, Will Promote Five Major Strategic Business Transformations in the Future - Economic Observer - Professional Financial News Website - Economic Observer
• Weichai Power 2024 Annual Report Released: Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew
• Weichai Power 2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, Will Promote Five Major Strategic Business Transformations in the Future - 0
• Building a New Pattern of Diversified Energy Power, Weichai Power 2024 Attributable Net Profit Grew 26.5%
• Weichai Power 2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, Will Promote Five Major Strategic Business Transformations in the Future - Weichai Power 2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, Will Promote Five Major Strategic Business Transformations in the Future
• Moving Toward New Growth, Building a Diversified Energy Power Pattern, Weichai Power Operating Performance Reaches New Heights - Moving Toward New Growth, Building a Diversified Energy Power Pattern, Weichai Power Operating Performance Reaches New Heights
• [2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, Weichai Power Opens a New Path for High-Quality Development | Hong Kong Economic Times - .

2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, Weichai Power Opens a New Path for High-Quality Development

Stock Market

Published: 2025/03/31 15:00

Last Updated: 2025/03/31 15:04

On the evening of March 27, Weichai Power (HK2338; SZ000338) released its 2024 annual report. The report](https://inews.hket.com/article/3928137/?mtc=40001&srkw=AI#1)

• Weichai Power (000338): Strong Profitability, Accelerating Transformation
• 2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, the "Diversified Code" Behind Weichai Power's Steady Performance Growth - 2024 Revenue and Net Profit Both Grew, the "Diversified Code" Behind Weichai Power's Steady Performance Growth
• Guosen Securities: Assigns "Neutral" Rating to Weichai Power
• Company Announcement_Weichai Power: 2022 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina.com - Credit Loss Provision | Lifetime Expected Credit Loss (No Credit Impairment) | Lifetime Expected Credit Loss (Credit Impairment Occurred) | Total
• Weichai Power: 2022 Annual Report - The Group only trades with recognized, reputable third parties
• Weichai Power (000338)_Company Announcement_Weichai Power: 2023 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina.com - Top Five Customers Total Sales Amount as Percentage of Annual Total Sales | 17.56%
• [Company Announcement_Weichai Power: 2022 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina.com - 1. Business Combination Not Under Common Control: According to the "Agreement on Overall Transfer of Aftertreatment Business" signed between the Company and Sinotruk Group Jinan Rubber & Plastic Factory Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Rubber & Plastic Factory") on October 30, 2022, the Company acquired financial and operating policy and related activities of the Rubber & Plastic Factory's aftertreatment business for a consideration of RMB