XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. (000425)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Construction Machinery | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Price, trading, and market-cap data as of the close on 2026-09-11 (Friday); some third-party technical indicators and capital-flow data have lagging timestamps (e.g., Investing.com Chinese page indicators as of 2026-08-13, South Africa page as of 2026-09-04, some 9fzt indicators around 2026-09-09), and are noted at each entry.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

The core decision-relevant facts for XCMG Machinery are: in H1 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 61.247 billion, up 11.75% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 3.962 billion, down 9.09% year-on-year, showing a clear "revenue growth without profit growth"; the profit decline was mainly affected by an exchange loss of RMB 1.136 billion, a substantial year-on-year increase in financial expenses, and approximately RMB 366 million in share-based payment expenses. In the same period, overseas revenue was RMB 30.917 billion, up 21.03% year-on-year, with its share exceeding 50% for the first time; overseas gross margin was 24.76%, higher than the domestic 19.42%. Globalization remains the main support for revenue and for improving the profit structure.

The company has a full-category construction machinery layout, covering earthmoving, lifting, mining, aerial work, piling, and multiple other categories. In 2025, revenue exceeded RMB 100 billion, with net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 6.572 billion, up 8.96% year-on-year, and overall gross margin of 22.61%. From 2024 to 2025, the company's overseas revenue share rose from about 45.6% to 48.2%, and further rose to 50.5% in H1 2026; gross margin and net margin generally improved compared with the 2022 industry downturn, reflecting the effects of overseas expansion, product mix upgrading, and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.

The company's current growth logic mainly comes from overseas market expansion, growth in earthmoving and mining machinery, advantages in lifting machinery, product premiumization, and cost management. In 2025, earthmoving machinery revenue was RMB 30.131 billion and mining machinery revenue was RMB 9.377 billion, up 25.49% and 23.83% year-on-year respectively; operating cash flow reached RMB 14.142 billion, up 148.42% year-on-year. However, in H1 2026, non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent fell 14.28% year-on-year, indicating that beyond factors such as exchange rates and share-based payments, short-term profitability still needs further verification.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price was RMB 8.06, near the lower end of the roughly RMB 7.77 to 12.90 52-week range, down about 30.40% from the beginning of the year; the share price recently rebounded after the August 31 low of RMB 7.77, but fell back for two consecutive days on September 10-11, with the short term declining to near MA10/MA20, while MACD and RSI weakened again and trading volume was also low. The company is advancing a share repurchase for cancellation of no more than RMB 600 million and no less than RMB 300 million; as of August 31, approximately RMB 345 million had been repurchased cumulatively; the controlling shareholder also plans to increase its stake by RMB 100 million to RMB 200 million within six months.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• R&D, manufacturing, sales, and service of earthmoving machinery, lifting machinery, piling machinery, concrete machinery, road machinery, aerial work machinery, mining machinery, sanitation machinery, agricultural machinery, emergency rescue equipment, and other construction machinery and spare parts
• Product system: 10 major categories and more than 600 models, covering shovel transport, excavation, lifting, industrial vehicles, road construction and maintenance, etc.
• Under the 2025 annual report basis, 16 types of main machines ranked first in the domestic industry; global first: lifting machinery, mobile cranes, horizontal directional drilling, new-energy loaders; global first tier: piling machinery, concrete machinery; global third: road machinery, truck-mounted cranes, aerial work platforms (under the 2024 annual report basis, also including tower cranes as global third); global fourth: mining open-pit excavation and transport equipment; excavators global sixth and domestic second (note: the group's excavator assets have not been injected into the listed company, so this market share is not fully reflected in the 000425 statements and should be described cautiously); loaders domestic first (under the 2024 annual report, rose to domestic first)
• Revenue structure by main business as of 2025-06-30 (half-year basis, East Money main business composition): construction machinery industry total RMB 54.81 billion; earthmoving machinery RMB 17.02 billion (31.05%, gross margin 25.66%), other construction machinery and spare parts and others RMB 15.39 billion (28.09%, gross margin 17.07%), lifting machinery RMB 10.47 billion (19.11%, gross margin 21.19%), mining machinery RMB 4.733 billion (8.64%), aerial work machinery RMB 4.572 billion (8.34%), piling machinery RMB 2.615 billion (4.77%); by region: domestic RMB 29.26 billion (53.39%, gross margin 20.29%), overseas RMB 25.55 billion (46.61%, gross margin 24.02%)
• Revenue structure by main business as of 2026-06-30 (scraped from East Money page, not cross-checked item by item against the original interim report; the interim report should prevail): total RMB 61.25 billion; earthmoving machinery RMB 21.75 billion (35.51%, gross margin 24.95%), other construction machinery spare parts RMB 16.32 billion (26.65%, 17.69%), lifting machinery RMB 12.61 billion (20.59%, 22.23%), mining machinery RMB 4.831 billion (7.89%), aerial work machinery RMB 3.359 billion (5.48%), piling machinery RMB 2.376 billion (3.88%); by region: export sales RMB 30.92 billion (50.48%, gross margin 24.76%), domestic sales RMB 30.33 billion (49.52%, gross margin 19.42%); in 2026H1, the overseas share exceeded half for the first time

2.3 Industry-Chain Upstream/Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

A midstream complete-machine manufacturer in construction machinery, undertaking steel and core component costs upstream, and connecting downstream to cyclical demand from infrastructure, real estate, mining, etc., as well as overseas markets; it is a complete-machine leader with R&D + manufacturing + global channels, positioned in the middle of the smile curve and extending to the right toward total solutions and branding.

• Main input categories: raw materials such as steel (plate/section steel), as well as core components such as engines/chassis, hydraulics (pumps/valves/cylinders), transmission, electronic controls, axles, and electrical parts.
• Raw material proportion: in 2020, raw materials accounted for 84.94% of operating costs, down 4.25 percentage points from 2019 (i.e., about 89.19% in 2019). Source: Shenzhen Stock Exchange Interactive Easy/Stockstar.
• Steel cost proportion: under an earlier interactive disclosure basis, steel accounted for about 10% of the company's product costs and was mainly purchased directly from steel mills (2015 P5W data; the basis is outdated and should be noted).
• Centralized procurement model: Xuzhou XCMG Materials Supply Co., Ltd., a third-tier subsidiary, centrally procures plate steel and other materials; historically about 60% of core components (chassis, pumps, axles, electrical parts) came from foreign suppliers, with a relatively dispersed supplier base, and these core components accounted for a high proportion of total costs. Payment methods are currently about 40% cash and about 60% bank acceptance bills; raw materials basically follow zero-inventory management, with each subsidiary and branch holding about 2-3 days of raw material inventory (source is an older restructuring/fundraising document basis).
• Low supplier concentration and relatively strong bargaining power: total procurement from the top five suppliers was about RMB 10.228 billion, accounting for 13.19% of annual procurement, of which related-party procurement accounted for 6.92% (the first-ranked supplier was a related party, accounting for 6.92%). ⚠ The annual report year for this item is not clearly shown in the scraped content; it is a single-year basis, and the main supplier section of the latest annual report should prevail.
• Upstream bargaining assessment: steel/commodities are a price taker (fluctuating with steel prices), but the company achieves relatively strong bargaining power through centralized procurement, supplier competition mechanisms, long-term agreement price locking, and target-cost methods; the company explicitly acknowledges that raw material price fluctuations have a certain impact on performance.
• Customer/demand areas: infrastructure construction, buildings, real estate development, large projects, emergency rescue and disaster relief, transportation, natural resource extraction, etc.; demand is highly correlated with fixed asset investment and is cyclical.
• Sales methods: both direct sales and distribution; overseas mainly through dealers/leasing companies (e.g., large Australian leasing companies and Brazilian dealers).
• Downstream bargaining structure for complete-machine construction machinery manufacturers: for domestic customers, a combination of direct sales/distribution and credit sales mainly; overseas through dealer and leasing company channels; this section did not find evidence of specific annual price reduction clauses or other industry-wide price-cutting mechanisms, so it is not detailed.
• Growth in procurement scale drove increases in accounts payable and notes payable (operating payable items increased by about RMB 1.633 billion / RMB 1.111 billion / RMB 794 million respectively; the original units were ten thousand yuan, please refer to the original; source: restructuring documents). In 2024, operating cash flow was RMB 5.720 billion, +60.18% year-on-year, a clear cash-flow improvement, reflecting better collection quality (source: Sina Finance 2024 annual report interpretation). ⚠ Specific indicators such as accounts receivable turnover days and accounts receivable as a proportion of revenue/net profit were not found in a cross-verifiable form in this search and are temporarily missing.
• ⚠ Customer concentration (combined share of top five customers): this search did not obtain comparable combined top-five customer share data and could not be cross-verified, so it is temporarily missing; it is recommended to supplement it using the main customer section of the latest annual report. Supplier-side concentration: combined procurement share of the top five suppliers was 13.19% (the year is not clearly shown; it is a single-year basis, from a single source, and needs to be checked against the latest annual report).

XCMG Machinery is positioned as a midstream complete-machine manufacturer in construction machinery—undertaking steel/core component costs upstream, and connecting downstream to cyclical and overseas demand from infrastructure, real estate, mining, etc.; it is a complete-machine leader with R&D + manufacturing + global channels, positioned in the middle of the smile curve and extending to the right toward total solutions and branding. The drivers for further gross margin improvement come from three areas: (1) a higher share of high-margin overseas business (overseas about 25% vs. domestic about 20%, and export sales accounted for more than half in 2026H1); (2) an upward shift in product mix (mining machinery, aerial work, new energy, large-tonnage high-value-added products) and domestic substitution of core components for products below 300 tons (domestic substitution rate 100%, previously less than 70%); (3) cost control brought by centralized procurement + supplier competition. Risks come from the domestic real estate/infrastructure cycle and steel prices, as well as the historical dependence on imports for core components (hydraulics/electronic controls, etc.).

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

2024 annual report additionally: non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent RMB 5.762 billion (+28.14%), operating cash flow RMB 5.720 billion (+60.18%), gross margin 22.55% (+1.75pct), net margin 6.53% (+0.89pct), diluted EPS RMB 0.51, ROE about 10.08%, debt-to-asset ratio 62.44%. 2025 annual report additionally: non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent RMB 6.55 billion (+13.68%), operating cash flow RMB 14.142 billion (+148.42%, a record high), overall gross margin 22.61% (+0.06pct), proposed dividend of RMB 2 per 10 shares; by segment: earthmoving machinery RMB 30.131 billion (+25.49%, gross margin 26.2%), lifting machinery RMB 20.983 billion (+11.03%, gross margin 22.54%), mining machinery RMB 9.377 billion (+23.83%); overseas revenue RMB 48.599 billion (+16.58%), accounting for 48.20% (+3.39pct), overseas gross margin 25.80% (domestic 19.64%). 2026 Q1 report: the 2025 Q1 base was revenue RMB 27.266 billion and net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.039 billion; another source lists net profit of RMB 2.087 billion, +0.8% year-on-year, a basis difference of about RMB 30 million, not fully cross-verified. 2026 interim report additionally: non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.829 billion (-14.28%); single Q2 revenue RMB 31.456 billion (YoY +12.37%~14.21%), net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.906 billion (YoY -17.85%~-18.42%); gross margin 22.12% (+0.09pct), net margin 6.47% (-1.48pct); overseas revenue RMB 30.917 billion (+21.03%), with its share exceeding 50% for the first time at 50.5% (overseas gross margin 24.76%). EPS for the past three years (AAStocks basis, diluted): RMB 0.365 in 2022, RMB 0.451 in 2023, RMB 0.511 in 2024, RMB 0.559 in 2025. Revenue basis uncertainty: the original 2024 annual report/Xinhua/Shanghai Securities News reported operating revenue of RMB 91.660 billion (-1.28%), while Stockstar and China Finance Network financial indicator tables list 2024 total operating revenue of RMB 93.037 billion, and the 2025 annual report year-on-year base is also RMB 93.038 billion; it is inferred that there was a restatement/basis adjustment (operating revenue vs. total operating revenue).

The 2026 interim report shows revenue growth without profit growth: revenue +11.75% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent -9.09% year-on-year, and non-GAAP -14.28% year-on-year; the main reason was financial expenses of RMB 1.600 billion, +1628.61% year-on-year, with an exchange loss of RMB 1.136 billion in 2026H1 (the year-ago period had an exchange gain of RMB 760 million). Excluding the exchange impact, Huachuang Securities/China Merchants Securities estimate that net profit attributable to parent grew more than 40% year-on-year. In 2026H1, overseas revenue was RMB 30.917 billion, +21.03% year-on-year, with its share exceeding 80% for the first time (50.5%), and overseas gross margin of 24.76% was higher than domestic. It should be noted that the negative year-on-year comparison in 2026H1 creates obvious downward revision pressure on earnings forecasts and is a non-operating disturbance (exchange).

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

The Guojin Securities forecast source is a buy report dated 2026-08-14; the Pacific Securities forecast source is a buy report dated 2026-09-07/08, without EPS or year-on-year growth rates; the Huaxin Securities forecast source is a buy report dated 2026-05-27 and lists only EPS; the Nomura Orient International forecast source is an overweight report dated 2026-03-19 (target price RMB 13.94), under a 2025-2027 EPS basis. The Tonghuashun iFinD multi-institution consensus was collected around early May 2026 (13 institutional research reports over the past 6 months), before the interim report disclosure; the 2026 forecast average net profit was RMB 8.890 billion, +35.27% from the prior year; the 2026 average target price was RMB 12.14 (range RMB 11.00-12.98), with ratings distributed as 8 buys, 2 recommends, 1 strong recommend, 1 outperform, and 1 overweight. This consensus is clearly below optimistic assumptions outside the post-interim individual stock models (Guojin RMB 7.55 billion, Pacific RMB 7.577 billion), and forms a contrast with the actual 2026H1 net profit attributable to parent decline of 9.09% year-on-year; it is an outdated single-platform aggregate value and is not recommended as the current benchmark. Separately, the overseas platform Investing.com's 3-month aggregate of 14 analysts gives a strong buy consensus (14 buy/0 hold/0 sell), with a 12-month average target price of RMB 12.42 (high RMB 14.00, low RMB 10.87); this aggregate includes forecasts from earlier months and is relatively old.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of early September 2026, the share price was about RMB 8.31-8.33 (Huachuang/Pacific research reports "current price/previous close" RMB 8.31; Sina rating page latest price RMB 8.33); total share capital 11.711 billion shares and floating share capital 8.998 billion shares; total market cap about RMB 97.3 billion and floating market cap about RMB 74.8 billion (Pacific Securities basis dated 2026-09-07). Highest/lowest price over 12 months: RMB 12.9/7.77 (Pacific Securities basis); Investing.com lists a 52-week price range of RMB 7.57-12.90. On PE: based on 2025 net profit attributable to parent of RMB 6.572 billion, about 14.8x; Pacific Securities gives PE 13x/9x/8x based on 2026/2027/2028 forecast net profit. Dividend yield: proposed dividend of RMB 2 per 10 shares for 2025 (RMB 0.2/share), about 2.4% based on a share price of RMB 8.3. The company launched equity incentive performance targets in 2025: ROE targets of 11%/12%/14% for 2026-2028, and net profit attributable to parent targets of RMB 7.5/10.0/12.0 billion, which can serve as an implied performance anchor and broadly align with sell-side forecasts. Note: after the interim report, only three institutions clearly gave target prices—CICC (RMB 11.00), Huachuang (RMB 10.90), and Huatai (RMB 9.75)—with large differences among them (RMB 9.75-11.00); the Investing.com aggregate average of RMB 12.42 includes forecasts from earlier months and is relatively old, and all should be viewed as "single/few institutions, inconsistent bases," not the latest multi-institution consensus. The market cap/share price time point is about early September 2026; earlier (February 2026) the share price was about RMB 10.2-11.8 and market cap about RMB 120 billion, so the valuation level has fallen significantly, and when citing valuation multiples, the "as of" date must be noted.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Share Repurchase (for Cancellation) Plan and Progress

The company's 10th Board of Directors second meeting on 2026-04-27 and the 2025 annual shareholders' meeting on 2026-05-28 approved the "Proposal on Repurchasing Company Shares and Using Them for Cancellation"; the total repurchase funds shall be no more than RMB 600 million (inclusive) and no less than RMB 300 million (inclusive), with a price no more than RMB 15/share (inclusive), repurchased in the secondary market with own funds, to reduce the company's registered capital, to be cancelled within ten days from the date the repurchase is completed, with an implementation period of no more than 12 months from the date of shareholder meeting approval, announcement numbers 2026-17/2026-26/2026-47/2026-48. Because the company completed the implementation of the 2025 profit distribution on 2026-07-03, the repurchase price ceiling was adjusted from RMB 15/share to RMB 14.80/share (inclusive). As of 2026-07-20, a cumulative 36,205,100 shares had been repurchased, accounting for 0.31% of total share capital, with a highest transaction price of RMB 9.99/share and a lowest of RMB 8.67/share, and total transaction amount of RMB 339,833,222.31 (excluding fees), announcement 2026-56, disclosed 2026-07-21. As of 2026-08-31, a cumulative 36,806,400 shares had been repurchased, accounting for 0.31% of total share capital, with a highest transaction price of RMB 9.99/share and a lowest transaction price down to RMB 7.94/share, and total transaction amount of RMB 344,849,914.31 (excluding fees), announcement 2026-67, disclosed 2026-09-01. About 601,300 additional shares were repurchased in August, with an average price clearly lower than in July, reflecting the share price falling back to around RMB 8 in August; the cumulative funds used are currently about RMB 345 million, already close to the lower limit of the plan (RMB 300 million), and the plan is still being advanced.

4.2 Controlling Shareholder Increase (New Round of Plan, Launched in August 2026)

On 2026-08-31, a notice letter was received from controlling shareholder Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group Co., Ltd. (XCMG Group): XCMG Group made its first increase on that day through centralized bidding of 1,276,100 shares, accounting for 0.0109% of total share capital, with an increase amount of RMB 10.0098 million (excluding fees) and an average increase price of RMB 7.84/share. It plans to increase its holdings within 6 months from 2026-08-31 (until 2027-02-27), with an amount of no less than RMB 100 million and no more than RMB 200 million (including the portion already increased on August 31). Before the increase, it held 2,469,739,335 shares (21.09%) → after the increase, 2,471,015,435 shares (21.10%). Announcement number 2026-68 (disclosed 2026-09-01).

4.3 Completion of the Controlling Shareholder's Previous Increase and Institutional Background

Previous increase: plan disclosed on 2025-12-27 (announcement 2025-97), proposing to increase by RMB 80 million-160 million within 6 months from 2025-12-26; as of 2026-06-25, implementation was completed, with a total increase of 9,157,200 shares and an amount of RMB 99,933,905.98 (excluding fees). XCMG Group had no reductions in the 6 months before this announcement. Institutional background: the increase stems from the "Global Investor Three-Year (2025-2027) Return Plan" (launched in November 2024), under which XCMG Group committed to using no less than 20% of the cash dividends received each year from the listed company (own funds or national policy funds) to increase its holdings in XCMG Machinery shares; it also committed that the cumulative cash dividend total for each year from 2025-2027 (including share repurchase and cancellation) would be no less than 40% of the distributable profit realized in that year. Note: some details of the return plan come from Changjiang Times reporting and are consistent with official announcement wording but are media paraphrases; the company's original announcements should prevail.

4.4 2026 Interim Report and Dividend-Related News

2026 interim report (disclosed 2026-08-31, formal periodic report): operating revenue RMB 61.247 billion, +11.75% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.962 billion, -9.09% year-on-year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.829 billion, -14.28% year-on-year. Gross margin 22.12 (+0.09pct); net margin 6.54 (-1.52pct). The profit decline was mainly due to non-operating factors such as an exchange loss of about RMB 1.136 billion + share-based payment expenses of about RMB 366 million; excluding the two, operating net profit grew more than 40% year-on-year (China Merchants Securities research report basis dated 2026-09-02). Financial expenses exceeded RMB 1.6 billion, +1628.61% year-on-year, mainly due to a substantial increase in exchange losses. Overseas revenue RMB 30.917 billion, +21.03% year-on-year, with a record-high share of 50.48%; domestic revenue RMB 30.33 billion, +3.65% year-on-year. 2026H1 operating cash flow RMB 4.158 billion, +11.62% year-on-year (another basis is "operating net cash flow RMB 3.73 billion" corresponding to 2025H1; care is needed to distinguish the years). 2026 interim profit distribution plan: Changjiang Times (2026-09-01) reported that the company plans to launch a 2026 interim distribution of a cash dividend of RMB 0.45 per 10 shares (tax included), with a total proposed dividend of about RMB 524 million; the details of this interim dividend currently appear only in a single Changjiang Times report and were not cross-verified in formal announcements in this search (it may be a preliminary plan disclosed alongside the interim report), belonging to single-source, to-be-verified data, and should be cited cautiously.

4.5 2026 Q1 Report and 2025 Annual Report

2026 Q1 report (disclosed 2026-04-29): revenue RMB 29.791 billion, +9.26% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.056 billion, +0.86% year-on-year. The apparently low growth rate was mainly due to exchange losses and share-based payment expenses. 2025 annual report (disclosed 2026-04-29): revenue RMB 100.823 billion, +8.37% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent RMB 6.572 billion, +8.96% year-on-year. Dividend plan: RMB 2.00 per 10 shares (tax included, RMB 1.80 after tax), dividend yield about 2.38%. In 2025, cash dividends were RMB 2.057 billion and share repurchases were RMB 3.050 billion (Pacific Securities research report basis).

4.6 Equity Incentive Plan and Corporate Governance Changes

2025 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan: the board approved the draft on 2025-09-02; disclosure on 2025-09-03 showed principle approval from Xuzhou SASAC; the 2025 second extraordinary shareholders' meeting approved it on 2025-12-25. The 9th Board of Directors 42nd meeting on 2025-12-25 determined the first grant date as 2025-12-25: granting 138.183 million stock options to 4,536 incentive recipients at an exercise price of RMB 9.67/option; granting 283.616 million restricted shares to 4,545 incentive recipients at a grant price of RMB 4.84/share. After adjustment (originally proposed to grant to no more than 4,700 people, lowered because 20 incentive recipients waived or left): the first grant of stock options was adjusted from 139.130 million to 138.183 million; restricted shares were adjusted from 283.870 million to 283.616 million (total unchanged, with the difference transferred to reserve). The source of restricted shares is the company's RMB-denominated A-share ordinary shares repurchased from the secondary market. Also: the conditions for the first unlock period of the reserved grant portion of the 2023 restricted stock incentive plan were met, with 196 people and 2,465,051 shares unlockable (0.02% of total share capital) (announced 2025-12-23). Governance/articles changes: the 2025 second extraordinary shareholders' meeting on 2025-12-25 approved the "Proposal on Changing the Company's Registered Capital, Cancelling the Supervisory Board, and Amending the Company's Articles of Association" (approval rate 95.995%); the company cancelled the supervisory board and amended the Rules of Procedure for the Shareholders' Meeting and the Rules of Procedure for the Board of Directors, etc. Shareholders attending were 1,204, representing 6,587,543,622 shares, accounting for 57.78% of effective voting shares.

4.7 Brokerage Views

China Merchants Securities (2026-09-02): 2026H1 revenue RMB 61.247 billion, +11.75% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.962 billion, -9.09% year-on-year; optimistic about performance elasticity from easing exchange rates in the second half + cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, emphasizing "dual improvement in quality and returns." Pacific Securities (2026-05-07): maintained "Buy," expecting 2026-2028 revenue of RMB 114.198/130.284/146.753 billion and net profit attributable to parent of RMB 8.514/10.727/13.066 billion, corresponding to PE of about 14/11/9x. Mentioned that the company's 2026 target is revenue growth of more than 10%. Shenwan Hongyuan (dated 03-25; the page should prevail for the year): maintained "Buy," lowered 2025-2027 net profit attributable to parent forecasts to RMB 6.972/8.542/10.610 billion (previously RMB 8.035/9.803/11.630 billion), assigning 20X PE for 2026, corresponding to market cap of RMB 170.8 billion. The above are forecasts from individual brokers and not a multi-broker consensus; the forecast values include assumptions about share-based payment expenses, exchange rates, etc., and are for reference only.

4.8 Timeline at a Glance (by disclosure date)

2025-09-02~03: 2025 incentive plan draft approved by the board/Xuzhou SASAC; 2025-12-23: first unlock of the reserved portion of the 2023 incentive plan (196 people/2,465,051 shares); 2025-12-25: extraordinary shareholders' meeting approved the incentive plan + cancellation of the supervisory board + amendment of articles, and determined 2025-12-25 as the first grant date; 2025-12-27: controlling shareholder increase plan (RMB 80 million-160 million); 2026-04-27/05-28: board/shareholders' meeting approved the repurchase-for-cancellation plan (RMB 300 million-600 million); 2026-04-29: 2025 annual report (revenue RMB 100.823 billion, net profit attributable to parent RMB 6.572 billion) + 2026 Q1 report (net profit attributable to parent RMB 2.056 billion) + 2025 annual dividend RMB 2.00 per 10 shares; 2026-06-25: previous round of controlling shareholder increase completed (cumulative increase 9.1572 million shares/RMB 99.9339 million); 2026-07-03: implementation of 2025 profit distribution completed (triggering a reduction of the repurchase price ceiling to RMB 14.80); 2026-07-20/21: repurchase progress (cumulative 36.2051 million shares, RMB 339.8 million); 2026-08-31: 2026 interim report (revenue RMB 61.247 billion, net profit attributable to parent RMB 3.962 billion) disclosed, controlling shareholder's new round of increase launched (first increase of 1.2761 million shares that day); 2026-09-01: repurchase progress (cumulative 36.8064 million shares, RMB 344.9 million) + controlling shareholder increase plan announcement (RMB 100 million-200 million).

4.9 Uncertainties and Source Limitations to Flag

1. The 2026 interim dividend (RMB 0.45 per 10 shares, totaling about RMB 524 million) appears only in one Changjiang Times report and has not been cross-verified in formal announcements; it is a single source, and the company's original announcement should be checked before citing. 2. Statements such as "2025 cash dividends RMB 2.057 billion, repurchases RMB 3.050 billion" and the 2026 repurchase of "RMB 300-600 million" mainly come from Pacific Securities research reports and are directionally consistent with the company's announcement basis, but detailed figures should be based on announcements. 3. The repurchase price ceiling of RMB 14.80/share is the adjusted value after dividend ex-rights and should not be confused with the original RMB 15/share. 4. Data cutoff: prices/announcements are the latest disclosures retrievable as of 2026-09-01/09-02; the share price (around RMB 8, average increase price RMB 7.84, August lowest repurchase price RMB 7.94) comes from different time points and not the same trading day, so direct horizontal comparison should be avoided. 5. Some sources (East Money/Tonghuashun/Sina) have JS-rendered or reposted pages; announcement numbers and main text have been cross-checked against authoritative disclosure channels such as CNINFO/Shanghai Securities News/China Securities Journal, and core figures (repurchase shares, amounts, increase shares, amounts) are consistent across multiple sources, with relatively high credibility. 6. No major M&A, regulatory penalties, or inquiry letter-type new news directly related to 000425 in this period was found (there was a shareholder pledge record in 2021; there have been no new violation disclosures recently, and "the company currently has no violations"); for complete coverage, it is recommended to further check the CNINFO announcement list and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regulatory inquiry section.

4.10 Confirmation of Basic Target Information

000425 = XCMG Machinery = XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (Shenzhen Main Board), securities abbreviation "XCMG Machinery," registered address No. 26 Tuolan Mountain Road, Xuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, Jiangsu Province, legal representative Yang Dongsheng, registered capital RMB 11.71121 billion (basis for outstanding bond information disclosure, see cnfin.com 2026 interim report). Cross-confirmed through multiple sources, not assumed from memory. Research data cutoff is early September 2026 (the latest retrievable announcements were published on 2026-09-01/09-02).

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) closed at RMB 8.06 as of 2026-09-11, down 2.18%, with turnover of RMB 559 million, turnover rate 0.77%, and volume ratio 0.56, indicating a decline on shrinking volume; the share price is near the lower end of the 52-week range (adopted approximately RMB 7.77-12.90), about 3.7% from the low. It recently rebounded from the stage low of RMB 7.77 on 8/31 to the 9/9 close of RMB 8.38, then fell for two consecutive days, down about 3.8% cumulatively from 8.38; on 9/11 it broke below the self-calculated MA5 (about 8.26) and fell back to around or below MA10/MA20 (about 8.07-8.12); MACD had a golden cross and bottom divergence in early September, but momentum weakened in the past two days and did not stand above the zero axis; RSI had a death cross on 9/11 and fell below 50, weakening in the short term. On a medium-to-long-term basis (3-month -11.62%, year-to-date -30.40%), it remains in a downtrend. On capital flows, on 9/11 main funds had a net outflow of RMB 29.8891 million (Stockstar basis; Sina under the same basis shows net inflow -RMB 64.6859 million, directionally consistent but with a different magnitude), and over the past 10 days main fund outflow accounted for about -8.4% to -8.5%; margin financing flowed out for 8 consecutive days, and northbound holdings were last reduced by 3.4407 million shares (time point about 9/9). On chips, the average holding cost is about RMB 9.00-9.13, with RMB 8.5-9.0 above as a trapped-position pressure zone and the RMB 8 area below as the recent dense trading support zone. The main limitations of this study: East Money and Tonghuashun indicator components returned blank when scraped; multiple moving average/MACD/RSI values come from lagging third-party pages, and complete official indicator values as of the 9/11 close were not obtained; concentration data such as the top ten shareholders, shareholder count, and public fund/social security/QFII holdings in the 2026 interim report could not be verified, which is a major gap and should not be cited based on speculation.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next One Week, Scenario Deduction, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is only a technical scenario deduction based on data as of the 2026-09-11 close, is a subjective judgment, and does not constitute any investment advice or buy/sell instruction.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, about 60% (subjective heuristic judgment, not statistical probability)): the share price repeatedly digests in the RMB 7.9-8.4 range, swinging around MA10/MA20 (about 8.07-8.12), with turnover maintained at RMB 500-700 million. Trigger conditions: no new catalyst, stable broader market and construction machinery sector, and continued mild volume contraction. In this scenario, resistance at RMB 8.24-8.38 above and support at RMB 7.92-8.08 below are both effective.
• Weaker downside (medium weight (subjective heuristic judgment, not statistical probability)): if the first support at RMB 7.92-8.08 is effectively broken below and turnover expands, the short term may test the strong support at RMB 7.77-7.80 (52-week low area); if the strong support at RMB 7.77 is effectively broken below (close below and with volume confirmation), there is no verified technical reference below, and attention should be paid to RMB 7.6 and lower questionable data levels and the extension range of the estimated Bollinger lower band. Trigger conditions: main funds continue net outflows (the state of about -8.4% to -8.5% outflow over the past 10 days persists), margin financing continues to flow out, and the construction machinery sector or broader market weakens simultaneously.
• Rebound strengthening (lower weight (subjective heuristic judgment, not statistical probability)): if the share price rises on volume above the RMB 8.24-8.38 resistance zone and closes above MA5 (about 8.26), the short term may challenge RMB 8.50-8.57 (9/8 intraday high); after a further breakout, it enters the RMB 8.8-9.0 trapped cost pressure zone. Trigger conditions: single-day turnover clearly expands, main funds turn to sustained net inflows, MACD lines return above the zero axis or RSI crosses back above 50, and a catalyst appears at the sector or company level.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Turnover and volume: single-day turnover from 9/8 to 9/11 was approximately RMB 1.166 billion → RMB 643 million → RMB 503 million → RMB 559 million, and turnover rate was 1.54% → 0.86% → 0.68% → 0.77%; MarketWatch shows 9/11 volume of 69.20 million shares, about 55% of the 65-day average volume (125.5 million shares), indicating clearly shrinking volume. Based on floating market cap of about RMB 72.5 billion, a turnover of 0.7%-0.8% is at the low end for large-cap stocks. Capital flows (Stockstar daily basis, unit: RMB ten thousand): 09-11 main funds net outflow 29.8891 million (5.35% of turnover), hot money net outflow 13.5679 million, retail net inflow 43.4570 million; 09-10 main funds net outflow 20.5629 million; 09-09 main funds net inflow 12.7612 million; 09-08 main funds net outflow RMB 161 million; 09-07 main funds net outflow 57.1319 million; 09-04 main funds net inflow RMB 138 million. Basis difference note: Sina's capital flow page on the same day (9/11) shows net inflow -RMB 64.6859 million and main funds net inflow -RMB 56.1236 million, inconsistent in magnitude with Stockstar's -RMB 29.8891 million, but directionally consistent (both net outflows). Other capital clues (9fzt, time point about 9/9, not updated to 9/11): main fund outflow over the past 10 days accounted for about -8.4% to -8.5%; northbound funds last reduced 3.4407 million shares, with total holdings of about 293 million shares; margin financing balance about RMB 997 million (9/8), with margin financing flowing out for 8 consecutive days. Shareholder concentration and institutional holdings: not verifiable this time—due to search step limitations, the top ten shareholders, shareholder count, and public fund/social security/QFII holdings disclosed in the 2026 interim report were not obtained, which is a clear gap in this study; it should be noted that such disclosures usually lag by more than one quarter, and the actual structure may have changed, so they should not be cited based on speculation. Confirmable indirect background (non-technical data): Stockstar shows 18 institutional ratings in the past 90 days (17 Buy, 1 overweight), with an average institutional target price of RMB 11.0; Investing.com shows a 12-month average target price of RMB 11.83 (high RMB 14, low RMB 9.75). The above capital and concentration information only reflects the verifiable basis and time points of this study and does not represent the latest status.

Volume confirmation signal: based on the stock's recent turnover of RMB 500-600 million/day, if single-day turnover continues to expand to more than RMB 1 billion (close to the 9/8 level of RMB 1.166 billion) and the share price stands above the RMB 8.24-8.38 resistance zone, this can be viewed as an observation signal of capital re-entry; conversely, if turnover continues below RMB 500 million and the share price declines, the weak pattern on shrinking volume remains unchanged.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Key technical levels: upper resistance one RMB 8.24-8.38 (including self-calculated MA5 ≈8.26), resistance two RMB 8.50-8.57; lower first support RMB 7.92-8.08, strong support RMB 7.77-7.80 (52-week low area); after an effective break below strong support, there is no verified reference below.
• Volume confirmation: watch whether single-day turnover can continue to expand above RMB 1 billion and be accompanied by the price standing above the resistance zone; conversely, continued below RMB 500 million means the weak pattern remains unchanged.
• Capital and chips: watch whether main funds can turn from net outflow to sustained net inflow, whether the consecutive margin financing outflow stops, changes in northbound holdings, and the digestion of trapped pressure above the average chip cost of about RMB 9.00 (capital data timestamps are mostly 9/9, not updated to 9/11).
• Indicator and data gaps: whether MACD can return above the zero axis, and whether RSI can cross back above 50; also note that this report did not obtain complete official technical indicator values as of the 9/11 close or 2026 interim shareholder concentration data, which need separate verification before making judgments.

The above scenario deduction is based on the 2026-09-11 close data and calculations from historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future trends, and do not constitute buy/sell advice. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The construction machinery industry is highly mature with intense competition in some areas, and concentration continues to increase, with leader share expanding, showing a pattern where the strong get stronger; industry trends can be summarized as the five transformations of premiumization, intelligence, greening, globalization, and servitization. Industry demand is highly correlated with fixed asset investment, but the international market shows regional differentiation and overall weak cyclicality.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Global landscape: in the 2026 KHL "Global Construction Machinery Manufacturers Top 50," XCMG ranked global third and China first (after Caterpillar and Komatsu). The KHL 2024 list showed the global top 50 with combined revenue of about USD 237.6 billion, and XCMG's market share at about 5.4%. ⚠ Ranking figures are inconsistent across sources: one source says Yellow Table 2024 ranked XCMG Group global third with USD 11.26 billion, while another source (Shenwan research report) says the company ranked global fourth and domestic first in 2024 with revenue of USD 12.769 billion; the difference may come from XCMG Group vs. XCMG Machinery entity basis and different list years/currency conversion, so the official KHL Yellow Table original should prevail and this note does not draw a conclusion.
• China industrial cluster: in 2025, the Xuzhou construction machinery industrial cluster exceeded RMB 190 billion in scale, about +19% year-on-year, with revenue accounting for about one-fifth of the national total, making it a national-level advanced manufacturing cluster.
• Industry concentration trend: leader share continues to expand, and the industry shows the strong getting stronger; international business is regionally differentiated and overall weakly cyclical.

6.3 Main Competitors

The Shenwan research report gives a comparable company valuation range (2025-2027 average PE 23X/19X/16X, XCMG corresponding to 17X/14X/11X), which is a single-source, single-broker basis, for reference only, and does not constitute a multi-institution consensus. ⚠ Directly comparable quantitative data such as the above competitors' market cap/market share/gross margin were not individually searched and cross-verified this time. There is a source contradiction regarding KHL global ranking third/fourth and revenue of USD 11.26 billion/12.769 billion, and no conclusion is drawn. The basis difference between 2024 revenue of RMB 91.66 billion vs. RMB 93.03 billion (China Finance Network 2024-12-31 revenue RMB 93,037.41 million, 2023 RMB 92,848.22 million) has not been fully reconciled.

7. Risk Warnings

• Exchange rate fluctuation risk is relatively prominent. In H1 2026, the company incurred an exchange loss of RMB 1.136 billion, compared with an exchange gain of RMB 760 million in the year-ago period, and financial expenses increased 1628.61% year-on-year, directly causing revenue growth to fail to translate into net profit attributable to parent growth; if overseas business continues to expand and exchange rate fluctuations continue, profit may continue to be disturbed.
• The rapid increase in the overseas business share brings operational complexity and regional risks. In H1 2026, export sales revenue accounted for 50.48%, and overseas sales mainly rely on channels such as dealers and leasing companies. If demand, channel collections, or the overseas operating environment change in some regions, this may affect revenue recognition, gross margin, and cash flow quality.
• Domestic demand still has obvious cyclicality. The company's downstream covers infrastructure, real estate, construction, large projects, mining, and other areas. In H1 2026, domestic revenue growth was only 3.65%. If domestic fixed asset investment, real estate, or infrastructure demand recovery falls short of expectations, earthmoving, lifting, and other construction machinery businesses may come under pressure.
• Raw material and core component costs may squeeze profit. The company's raw materials previously accounted for a high proportion of operating costs, and steel price fluctuations affect manufacturing costs; core components such as hydraulics, engines, transmission, and electronic controls also affect costs and delivery. Historically, some core components depended on imports, and changes in cost or supply may weaken gross margin.
• Earnings quality in H1 2026 faces stage pressure. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent fell 14.28% year-on-year, share-based payment expenses were about RMB 366 million, and net margin declined at the same time; even if the exchange loss has certain non-operating characteristics, it still needs to be verified later whether operating profit excluding related disturbances can continue to grow.
• Overseas expansion and product upgrading place higher demands on capital, channels, and service capabilities. In H1 2026, the company's overseas revenue share exceeded half for the first time. If overseas channel construction, after-sales service, product adaptation, or high-end product volume ramp-up falls short of expectations, revenue growth may be difficult to continuously translate into corresponding profit improvement.
• The company's share price and capital flows remain weak. As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 8.06, down about 30.40% year-to-date; recently main funds have seen consecutive net outflows, margin financing has flowed out continuously, and the share price is below the average chip cost of about RMB 9.00 to 9.13; if support near RMB 7.77 is lost, short-term volatility pressure may further increase.
• Earnings forecasts have basis and timing differences. The company's 2024 operating revenue differs across sources at RMB 91.660 billion and RMB 93.037 billion, and 2026 institutional forecasts for net profit attributable to parent are also clearly divergent, with some consensus forecasts formed before the interim report; if subsequent actual performance is lower than institutional forecasts, this may trigger earnings expectation and valuation adjustments.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

XCMG Machinery's medium-term growth framework remains relatively clear: full-category manufacturing capability and sub-segment advantages such as lifting machinery form the business foundation; after overseas revenue share exceeded half, the higher overseas gross margin is expected to continue improving the revenue structure; earthmoving, mining, aerial work, and new energy and intelligent products provide room for product mix upgrading. Multiple institutional forecasts from 2025 to 2028 generally point to continued growth in revenue and net profit attributable to parent, but the forecast values differ significantly, and some forecasts were formed before the 2026 interim report disclosure and cannot replace subsequent performance verification.

The key to short-term performance lies in whether exchange losses narrow, whether financial expenses return to normal, whether the impact of share-based payments declines, and whether overseas business growth can translate into stable profit and cash flow. In H1 2026, gross margin was still 22.12%, but net margin declined, indicating that revenue growth has not yet fully passed through to net profit attributable to parent. Going forward, focus should be on overseas revenue growth, the overseas vs. domestic gross margin gap, operating cash flow, non-GAAP profit, and domestic business recovery.

In terms of corporate governance and shareholder returns, share repurchase and cancellation, controlling shareholder increases, cash dividends, and equity incentives jointly constitute capital operation and operating target constraints; the equity incentive set net profit attributable to parent targets of RMB 7.5 billion, RMB 10.0 billion, and RMB 12.0 billion for 2026 to 2028. At the same time, the share price remains in a medium-to-long-term downtrend, with relatively obvious chip pressure around RMB 8.5 to 9.0, and the RMB 7.77 to 7.80 area is important recent technical support. Whether fundamental improvement can continue, whether exchange rate disturbances can ease, and how the market reprices earnings forecasts will jointly affect subsequent performance.

Data Sources

• XCMG Machinery (sz000425)
• XCMG Machinery (000425)_Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Charts_News_Stock Reviews_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• China Securities Journal - XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. - Securities Code: 000425 Securities Abbreviation: XCMG Machinery Announcement No.: 2025-26
• XCMG Machinery (000425) Capital Flow_Stock Quotes_Tonghuashun Finance
• [XCMG Machinery (000425) Main Funds Net Sell of RMB 29.8891 Million on September 11 - Stock