China Rare Earth Group Resources Technology Co., Ltd. (000831)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Rare Earth Resources and Smelting & Separation | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the close on September 11, 2026; certain moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and fund flow data may differ due to platform conventions or proprietary calculations — see the relevant indicator notes for details.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

China Rare Earth presented a "revenue decline, profit and cash flow growth" recovery profile in H1 2026: operating revenue of RMB 1.647 billion, down 12.19% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 237 million, up 46.53% year-on-year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 240 million, up 55.49% year-on-year; net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 711 million. The profit improvement was mainly driven by rising rare earth product prices, product mix optimization, mining-production-sales coordination, cost control, and reversal of inventory write-down provisions; however, the cash flow improvement includes working capital and inventory cycle factors and cannot simply be equated with a long-term profitability trend.

The company remains a mid-to-upstream enterprise primarily engaged in rare earth resource mining and beneficiation, smelting and separation, rare earth oxides, and rare earth metals. In 2025, rare earth oxide revenue was approximately RMB 2.374 billion, accounting for approximately 74.6% of main business revenue, while rare earth metal revenue was approximately RMB 788 million. Backed by China Rare Earth Group, the company has platform attributes in the integration of southern ion-adsorption and medium-heavy rare earth resources; however, the Jianghua mine's own ore sources cannot fully cover smelting demand, and the Shenggongzhai and Feitian rare earth mines are still in the exploration-to-mining transition stage, leaving raw material self-sufficiency and cost control capabilities relatively limited.

The profit recovery is still at an early stage. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 3.182 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 173 million, turning around from a loss of RMB 287 million in 2024; however, the 2025 gross margin was only 16.65%, significantly below 2022–2023 levels, and Q4 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders still showed a loss of RMB 19.607 million. In H1 2026, the rare earth industry's comprehensive gross margin rose to 22.41%, but Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders declined sequentially versus Q1, reflecting continued strong volatility in product prices and mix.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price closed at RMB 51.93, below major short- and medium-term moving averages, with MACD in negative territory, five consecutive trading days of decline, and overall net outflow of main funds; meanwhile, RSI at approximately 19.83 and the share price near the lower Bollinger Band suggest potential for a short-term technical rebound, though no trend reversal signal has yet formed. Based on average institutional forecasts, net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026–2028 is approximately RMB 434 million, RMB 504 million, and RMB 582 million, corresponding to forecast P/E ratios of approximately 130x, 111x, and 97x at the current share price, indicating the market has fairly fully priced in expectations for rare earth price increases, industry consolidation, and profit recovery.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Rare earth resource development: Conducts ion-adsorption rare earth ore mining and beneficiation through the controlled subsidiary Zhongxi (Hunan) Rare Earth Development Co., Ltd., with products including rare earth carbonate concentrate, mixed rare earth oxide concentrate, and mixed rare earth chloride.
• Rare earth smelting and separation: Owns entities including Dingnan Dahua, Guangzhou Jianfeng, and Zhongxi (Yongzhou) Rare Earth New Materials, producing rare earth oxides, chlorides, and salt products of varying purity, physical properties, and customer customization.
• Rare earth metals and alloys: Produces and sells rare earth metals and alloys, primarily serving the magnetic materials, alloy materials, electronic components, and other functional materials sectors.
• Deep processing, R&D, and technical services: Conducts rare earth deep processing, new material R&D and production, and rare earth technology R&D and consulting services, with products applied in magnetic materials, luminescent materials, catalytic materials, crystal materials, alloy materials, high-performance ceramics, and electronic components.
• 2025 business structure: Rare earth oxide revenue of approximately RMB 2.374 billion, accounting for approximately 74.6% of main business revenue; rare earth metal revenue of approximately RMB 788 million, accounting for approximately 24.7% of main business revenue. Rare earth oxide gross margin was 16.70%, rare earth metal gross margin was 15.19%, and rare earth industry main business revenue was approximately RMB 3.182 billion, with a gross margin of 16.65%.

2.3 Industry Chain Position and Cost-Profit Structure

China Rare Earth is positioned in the mid-to-upstream segment of the rare earth industry chain, with revenue and profit still primarily derived from rare earth resource mining and beneficiation, smelting and separation, rare earth oxides, and rare earth metals, rather than downstream magnetic materials or end devices. The company owns the Jianghua rare earth mine and smelting and separation capacity, but its own ore sources cannot fully cover smelting demand, making it overall a resource-and-processing cyclical enterprise characterized by "resource barriers, product prices subject to market influence."

• The company's upstream inputs mainly include ion-adsorption rare earth ore, rare earth concentrate, and mixed rare earth raw materials, as well as acid, alkali, salt, and other smelting and separation auxiliary materials, energy, environmental treatment materials, and packaging materials.
• The company owns the Jianghua rare earth mine as a producing mine, but its own mine supply cannot fully cover smelting and separation demand; the 2025 annual report discloses that some rare earth smelting and separation raw materials still need to be externally procured, posing certain risks to raw material supply security.
• Costs are mainly affected by rare earth ore and rare earth oxide market prices, national rare earth mining and smelting-separation total volume indicators, external raw material procurement prices, acid-base and energy-environmental costs, inventory cycles, and rare earth price fluctuations.
• The company has certain acquisition advantages for upstream rare earth resources, but compared with Northern Rare Earth, which possesses large-scale low-cost rare earth concentrate resources, its resource self-sufficiency rate and cost control capabilities are relatively weak.
• The Jianghua rare earth mine is currently the producing resource; the Shenggongzhai and Feitian rare earth mines are still in the exploration-to-mining transition stage and cannot be regarded as having formed producible capacity.
• The company's products mainly enter NdFeB and other magnetic materials, luminescent materials, catalytic materials, alloy materials, crystal materials, high-performance ceramics, electronic components, as well as new energy, energy-saving motors, and robotics application areas.
• Rare earth oxides and rare earth metals are mostly standardized or semi-standardized materials, with product prices heavily influenced by rare earth prices, supply-demand cycles, and policy regulation; the company has limited active pricing power over end prices.
• The company can provide products of different purities and special physical properties according to customer needs, but its control over downstream end demand is weaker than downstream material or magnetic material enterprises that possess brands, formulations, end certifications, and core device capabilities.
• The research notes do not disclose the combined sales proportion of the top five customers for 2025 or other years, so final customer concentration cannot be confirmed on this basis. Among related-party receivables disclosed in the 2025 annual report, China Rare Earth Group International Trade Co., Ltd. had period-end accounts receivable of approximately RMB 315 million, accounting for the vast majority of the company's period-end accounts receivable of approximately RMB 314 million; this data represents a related-party receivable item, is not equivalent to final end-customer concentration, and cannot directly infer end-customer concentration.
• Rare earth product transactions are typically influenced by market prices or industry benchmark prices; the company faces rare earth price cycles, supply-demand changes, and policy regulation rather than fully autonomous pricing; downstream product mix upgrading and customization capabilities may improve product competitiveness, but the extent of such improvement is not quantified in the notes.
• As of December 31, 2025, accounts receivable were approximately RMB 314 million, accounting for approximately 9.87% of full-year operating revenue; accounts payable were approximately RMB 74.82 million, accounting for approximately 2.82% of operating costs. As of December 31, 2024, accounts receivable were approximately RMB 329 million, accounting for approximately 10.86% of operating revenue; accounts payable were approximately RMB 222 million, accounting for approximately 8.70% of operating costs. The 2025 accounts payable scale was significantly lower than 2024, while accounts receivable as a proportion of revenue remained close to 10%, indicating the company needs certain capital support for sales and upstream-downstream settlement; however, since approximately RMB 315 million of 2025 accounts receivable came from China Rare Earth Group International Trade Co., Ltd., the company's bargaining power with independent external customers cannot be judged solely by the accounts receivable ratio.
• The research notes do not provide the combined proportion of the top five customers, nor the procurement proportion of the top five upstream suppliers, so neither customer nor supplier concentration can be quantified. A confirmable related-party settlement signal is: as of end-2025, China Rare Earth Group International Trade Co., Ltd. had accounts receivable of approximately RMB 315 million, accounting for the vast majority of the company's period-end accounts receivable of approximately RMB 314 million; this data represents a related-party receivable item, is not equivalent to end-customer concentration, and is primarily sourced from the 2025 annual report, subject to the latest annual report.

The company is positioned in the mid-to-upstream segment of the rare earth industry chain, belonging to a resource-and-processing enterprise that "owns rare earth mines but whose own ore sources are not yet sufficient to fully cover smelting demand while also possessing smelting and separation capacity," and is overall closer to the mid-to-upstream resource processing segment rather than the downstream brand or end high-value-added segment. Profit improvement mainly depends on rare earth product price recovery, Jianghua mine capacity release, Shenggongzhai and Feitian achieving exploration-to-mining conversion, a decline in the proportion of externally procured raw materials, and an increase in the proportion of high-purity oxides and customized products.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The H1 2026 semi-annual report covers the period ending June 30, 2026, was disclosed on August 8, 2026, and is unaudited. H1 2026 non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 240.42 million, up 55.49% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was RMB 0.2233, up 46.52% year-on-year. FY 2025 non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 160.00 million, versus a loss of RMB 144.70 million in 2024; FY 2025 basic earnings per share was RMB 0.1626, versus a loss of RMB 0.2704 per share in 2024.

The company's H1 2026 revenue declined year-on-year while profit maintained rapid growth, mainly related to rising rare earth product prices, product mix optimization, improved cost control, and reversal of inventory write-down provisions. The rare earth industry's comprehensive gross margin was 22.41%, up 9.04 percentage points year-on-year; rare earth oxide revenue was RMB 1.28239 billion, up 7.68% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.23%; rare earth metal and alloy revenue was RMB 353.29 million, down 47.60% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.44%. The company proactively compressed part of its trading and rare earth metal business, resulting in lower revenue but improved earnings quality. H1 2026 net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 710.71 million, versus a net outflow of RMB 45.5957 million in the same period last year; the cash flow improvement has strong working capital and inventory cycle factors and cannot simply be equated with long-term profit growth. Q2 2026 single-quarter net profit declined sequentially versus Q1, indicating continued strong volatility in rare earth prices and product mix. Q4 2025 single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders showed a loss of RMB 19.607 million, and full-year profitability remains in the early stages of recovery. FY 2025 rare earth oxide revenue was RMB 2.37406 billion, accounting for approximately 74.61% of operating revenue, up 30.81% year-on-year; rare earth metal revenue was RMB 787.61 million, down 31.87% year-on-year.

3.2 Profit Forecasts

Average institutional forecasts as of August 19, 2026; publicly searchable Tonghuashun F10 data shows a total of 4 institutions made profit forecasts within 6 months. The above forecasts are a summary of institutional forecasts, not company performance commitments; the number of institutions and forecast results may differ across platforms due to update timing. The 2026 revenue forecast range is RMB 3.242 billion to RMB 4.196 billion, 2027 is RMB 3.428 billion to RMB 4.548 billion, and 2028 is RMB 3.590 billion to RMB 5.156 billion. Institutional net profit attributable to shareholders forecast ranges: 2026 approximately RMB 397 million to RMB 472 million, 2028 approximately RMB 492 million to RMB 661 million.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of approximately 11:16 on September 10, 2026, the share price was approximately RMB 53.34, down 1.88%, with total share capital of approximately 1.061 billion shares and total market capitalization of approximately RMB 56.6 billion; Cfi.cn shows a dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 228.41x, non-GAAP dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 230.29x, and price-to-book ratio of approximately 10.79x. Another platform as of around September 7, 2026 showed a P/E ratio of approximately 235x, price-to-book ratio of approximately 11.59x, and total market capitalization of approximately RMB 58.3 billion, with differences mainly due to different pricing timestamps. Based on 2026–2028 average institutional forecast EPS of approximately RMB 0.41, RMB 0.48, and RMB 0.55, the share price of RMB 53.34 corresponds to forecast P/E ratios of approximately 130x, 111x, and 97x respectively. Based on different institutional forecasts, the 2026 corresponding P/E ratio is approximately: Bohai Securities above 140x, Hualong Securities approximately 156x, Dongguan Securities approximately 122x, Hua'an Securities approximately 110x. Available institutional target prices range from RMB 61.6 to RMB 65.8, but the public sample is limited and cannot be regarded as a strict market consensus target price. The current valuation is significantly higher than the traditional non-ferrous metals industry, and the market has fairly fully priced in rare earth price increases, industry supply controls, group resource integration, and the company's profit recovery. Whether the valuation can be digested mainly depends on whether prices for products such as praseodymium-neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium can remain elevated, whether the company can convert H1 profit improvement into sustained main business profitability in H2 2026 and 2027, and whether expectations for China Rare Earth Group's internal resource integration, mine exploration-to-mining conversion, and asset injection can be realized. The company's profit is highly sensitive to rare earth prices, inventory impairments, product mix, industry policy, and resource integration progress, with historically large profit fluctuations and high forecast uncertainty. The overall valuation is closer to a "high-prosperity cyclical recovery + strategic resource premium" logic rather than a traditional low-valuation cyclical stock logic.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 H1 2026 Results: Revenue Declined YoY, Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders and Operating Cash Flow Grew

The company disclosed its H1 2026 semi-annual report on August 8, 2026. H1 2026 operating revenue was RMB 1.64661 billion, down 12.19% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 236.95 million, up 46.53% year-on-year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 240.42 million, up 55.49% year-on-year; net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 710.71 million, versus a net outflow of RMB 45.5957 million in the same period last year. At the August 17, 2026 earnings briefing, the company stated that the revenue decline was mainly related to adjusting procurement and sales strategies, optimizing product mix, and adjusting the trading business; profit growth was mainly affected by improved rare earth industry supply-demand dynamics, year-on-year increases in praseodymium-neodymium product prices, mining-production-sales coordination, and development of high-end, high-value, and customized products.

4.2 Inventory Write-Down Provision Reversal Positively Impacted H1 Profit

The company disclosed an announcement on asset impairment provisions for H1 2026 on August 8, 2026. The amount recorded under the asset impairment loss account for January–June 2026 was -RMB 24.6452 million, all of which was inventory write-down loss; the related provision was reversed and increased H1 2026 consolidated total profit by RMB 24.6452 million; fixed asset impairment loss was 0. As of June 30, 2026, the company's inventory book balance was RMB 2,052,192,600, inventory write-down provision balance was RMB 225,243,700, and inventory recoverable amount was RMB 1,826,948,900. This impairment data is unaudited.

4.3 Guangdong Rising Holdings Plans to Reduce Holdings by No More Than 1% of Total Share Capital

The company disclosed on August 21, 2026 a reduction plan by shareholder Guangdong Province Guangdong Rising Holdings Group Co., Ltd., which holds more than 5% of shares. As of the announcement disclosure date, Guangdong Rising Holdings held 100,587,368 shares of the company, accounting for 9.48% of total share capital; it plans to reduce holdings through centralized bidding within 3 months after 15 trading days from the announcement disclosure date, by no more than 10,612,208 shares, i.e., no more than 1% of total share capital. The reason for the reduction is the shareholder's operating development and capital arrangement needs, and the shares were acquired through administrative transfer. Based on the announcement date, the reduction window is expected to begin around September 11, 2026, and end around mid-December 2026; the specific implementation timing, price, and final reduction quantity are uncertain.

4.4 Reduction Plan Has Not Yet Shown Actual Execution

As of September 13, 2026, what has been found is Guangdong Rising Holdings' pre-disclosure of the reduction plan; no subsequent announcement of completed specific reduction quantity, average reduction price, or reduction proportion has been found. It should currently be treated as potential supply increase rather than actual reduction already executed. Guangdong Rising Holdings is not the company's controlling shareholder or actual controller, and the company's controlling shareholder system remains China Rare Earth Group-related entities; this reduction will not cause a change in the controlling shareholder or actual controller.

4.5 No New Q3 Earnings Forecast, Earnings Flash Report, or Buyback Announcement

As of September 13, 2026, no new Q3 2026 earnings forecast or earnings flash report was found in the H1 2026 semi-annual report and related announcement searches. Based on the company's recent announcement list and a search using the keyword "buyback," no new share buyback plan or buyback implementation announcement disclosed by the company in August–September 2026 was found.

4.6 FY 2025 Cash Dividend Completed

The company disclosed that its FY 2025 profit distribution plan was a cash dividend of RMB 0.29 per 10 shares, totaling approximately RMB 30.7754 million in cash dividends; the related equity distribution work had been completed as of the August 2026 announcement. The company also formulated a 2026–2028 shareholder dividend return plan.

4.7 Company Continues to Monitor Rare Earth Resource M&A Integration Opportunities, but No Specific Transaction Yet

The H1 2026 semi-annual report shows that the company continues to monitor rare earth resource investment and M&A opportunities and plans to carry out rare earth resource M&A integration in due course in line with development planning. This statement represents a strategic direction or risk response arrangement and is not equivalent to a signed specific M&A agreement. During the reporting period, the company had no major equity investments or major asset sales. As of September 13, 2026, no clear counterparty, target asset, transaction amount, or specific M&A project under board review has been identified.

4.8 Industry Policy and Rare Earth Prices Support Operations; Company Strengthens Raw Material Security

At the August 17, 2026 earnings briefing, the company stated that in H1 2026 rare earth industry supply-demand dynamics continued to adjust and optimize, rare earth industry policy and downstream demand supported market conditions, and praseodymium-neodymium product prices rose significantly versus the same period in 2025. The company will carry out raw material reserves in line with policy and market changes, strengthen procurement and sales coordination with China Rare Earth Group and related enterprises, and expand raw material procurement channels and cooperation models to ensure production raw material supply. The above content represents the company's judgment on the industry environment and operating arrangements, and does not mean the company has obtained specific policy subsidies or regulatory exemptions.

4.9 "Quality and Return Dual Improvement" Action Advances Corporate Governance System Building

The company's August 2026 disclosure of progress on the "Quality and Return Dual Improvement" action shows that in H1 2026 it revised or newly added systems for director and senior management compensation management, information disclosure deferral and exemption, director and senior management departure management, related-party transaction management, investment management, and comprehensive budget management, focusing on strengthening corporate governance, related-party transactions, investment decision-making, and information disclosure management.

4.10 As of September 13, 2026, No New Regulatory Penalty Matters Found

As of September 13, 2026, no announcement of new investigations, administrative penalties, or disciplinary actions by the China Securities Regulatory Commission or Shenzhen Stock Exchange against China Rare Earth was found. This conclusion only represents the results of this public webpage and announcement search and does not rule out situations that have not been publicly disclosed or were missed in the search.

4.11 September 1–13: No New Major Company Announcements Found

Based on announcement searches for September 2026 and August 2026, no new major company announcements were found for the company from September 1 to September 13, 2026. Recent clearly important matters include the semi-annual report and asset impairment provision announcement disclosed on August 8, 2026, the semi-annual earnings briefing investor relations activity record disclosed on August 17, 2026, the pre-disclosure announcement of the reduction plan by a shareholder holding more than 5% disclosed on August 21, 2026, and the "Quality and Return Dual Improvement" action progress announcement.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, China Rare Earth's share price declined consecutively, with the closing price falling below MA5, MA10, MA20, and other major moving averages, MACD negative and the technical signal at sell, and short- to medium-term trend weak. At the same time, RSI (14) of approximately 19.83 and proximity to the self-calculated lower Bollinger Band indicate that the short term is already in an oversold and post-rapid-retreat weak range, with potential for a technical rebound or range-bound repair, but this is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. On the capital side, main funds were overall biased toward net outflow from September 7 to September 11, with main fund net outflow of approximately RMB 171 million on September 11, weakening the reliability of an oversold rebound. Recent turnover remains at approximately RMB 1.0–1.5 billion, overall liquidity is still acceptable, but the turnover rate is approximately 2%, and short-term funds are not strongly inclined to chase gains. In comprehensive judgment, the current state is "short- to medium-term trend weak, indicators oversold, potential for a technical rebound," and technical bullish and bearish signals are not consistent.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is solely a subjective scenario deduction based on September 11, 2026 closing data, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute buy, sell, hold, or stop-loss instructions.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weighting, Not Statistical Probability)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively high subjective weight, approximately 60%; this weight is a subjective judgment based on current technical conditions and fund flow, not statistical probability): Reference range is RMB 50.9–53.5. Trigger conditions include the share price finding support around RMB 50.9–51.4, main fund net outflow narrowing, and turnover remaining at approximately RMB 1.0–1.3 billion without sustained volume-driven selling. RSI oversold may facilitate a weak rebound or low-level sideways trading, but RMB 52.7–54.4 still has moving average pressure.
• Weaker downside (medium subjective weight; this weight is a subjective judgment based on current technical conditions and fund flow, not statistical probability): Reference range is RMB 49.8–50.9, with continued search for support at a lower platform in extreme cases. Trigger conditions include an effective close below RMB 50.9, a clear single-day turnover increase to above RMB 1.5 billion, and continued main fund net outflow; if around RMB 50 also fails to absorb selling, oversold conditions may fail to translate into an effective rebound.
• Rebound strengthening (relatively low subjective weight; this weight is a subjective judgment based on current technical conditions and fund flow, not statistical probability): Reference range is RMB 53.5–55.0, with observation of the area above RMB 55 in a strong case. Trigger conditions include reclaiming RMB 53.5 with consecutive volume expansion, single-day turnover of at least approximately RMB 1.5 billion, and super-large and large order funds shifting from net outflow to clear net inflow; only after further reclaiming MA20 around RMB 54.4 can increased rebound sustainability be observed.
• Common observation framework for the three scenarios (does not constitute a directional conclusion): A mere low-volume bounce is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal; key price levels, turnover changes, and super-large and large order fund flows need to be observed together.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was 2.06%, and turnover was approximately RMB 1.132 billion; over the last 5 trading days, turnover was approximately RMB 950 million to RMB 1.47 billion and the turnover rate was approximately 1.68%–2.51%. The stock's overall liquidity is still acceptable, and the research notes do not show obvious order book slippage characteristics of an extremely low-liquidity small-cap stock. On fund direction, main funds were overall biased toward outflow from September 7 to September 11, with main fund net outflow of approximately RMB 171 million on September 11, accounting for approximately 15.07% of turnover; the current situation is closer to a weak adjustment under a background of large funds reducing positions. On chips, as of June 18, 2026, the number of shareholders was approximately 174,200, and the platform judged chips as "very dispersed"; as of June 30, 2026, disclosed institutional holdings totaled approximately 48.54% of tradable A-shares, but this data is not equivalent to top ten shareholder concentration and cannot confirm the specific composition of public funds, social security, or QFII among the top ten shareholders. East Money's disclosed top ten shareholders' total holding of approximately 44% is as of March 31, 2026 and is quarterly lagged. The above shareholder structure and institutional holding data are some time away from September 11 and may have changed during the period; in actual trading, dispersed chips coexisting with a relatively high institutional holding ratio may make large fund flow more worthy of attention for short-term price impact.

A checkable volume confirmation signal is: if turnover reaches or exceeds approximately RMB 1.5 billion for two consecutive trading days in the coming week, and super-large and large order funds turn to clear net inflow on at least one day, this can be regarded as an observation signal of short-term capital improvement; if volume expansion is accompanied by main fund net outflow, it is more likely volume-driven decline or fund liquidation.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operating Instructions)

• Observation idea, not operating instruction: Watch whether the first support zone of RMB 50.9–51.4 receives buying support, and whether the strong support zone of RMB 49.8–50.4 is tested.
• Observation idea, not operating instruction: Watch whether the share price can reclaim RMB 52.7 and further break through the RMB 52.4–53.5 resistance zone.
• Observation idea, not operating instruction: If RMB 50.9 is broken and turnover expands to above RMB 1.5 billion, watch the potential for seeking support in the RMB 49.8–50.4 range.
• Observation idea, not operating instruction: Watch whether main funds can shift from consecutive net outflow to net inflow; RSI oversold alone is insufficient to confirm a reversal.

The above scenario deduction is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical price and technical indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be affected by multiple factors including news, capital flows, broader market environment, and rare earth sector trends. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations and do not constitute a guarantee of future actual trends, nor do they constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

China's rare earth industry has strategic resource attributes and policy constraint characteristics. Rare earth mining and smelting-separation are affected by total volume controls, mining rights and environmental approvals, and integration by large rare earth groups. The industry covers geological exploration, mine mining and beneficiation, smelting and separation, deep processing, technology R&D, and distribution and trade. USGS 2025 data cited in the company's annual report states that global rare earth ore reserves are approximately 90 million tonnes, with China at approximately 44 million tonnes, accounting for approximately 48%; the relevant statistical conventions and resource categories should be based on the original USGS report.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Key areas of industry competition include rare earth ore resource acquisition capability, national mining and smelting-separation indicators, raw material self-sufficiency rate, separation processes and environmental costs, high-purity rare earth product capabilities, overseas resources and trade channels, and the ability to extend downstream into magnetic materials and functional materials.
• After the establishment of China Rare Earth Group, the industry further concentrated toward large groups; backed by China Rare Earth Group, the company has platform attributes in domestic medium-heavy rare earth resource integration and the central SOE strategic system.
• Rare earth product price cycles and downstream demand from new energy vehicles, energy-saving motors, robotics, wind power, and electronic materials jointly affect industry prosperity.
• China Rare Earth's annual report states that China supplies approximately 90% of the world's rare earth smelting and separation products; this data is industry data cited in the company's annual report, and the specific statistical conventions should be based on the original materials.

6.3 Major Competitors

China Rare Earth's comparative advantages mainly lie in being the core listed platform of China Rare Earth Group, its southern ion-adsorption and medium-heavy rare earth resource layout, and industry integration expectations; compared with Northern Rare Earth, the company's existing resource scale, raw material self-sufficiency rate, and cost control capabilities are weaker; compared with Shenghe Resources, its overseas resource allocation and internationalization level are relatively insufficient; compared with Rising Nonferrous, the company has stronger national industry integration platform attributes backed by China Rare Earth Group; compared with Xiamen Tungsten and downstream magnetic material enterprises, the company's business is more concentrated in upstream resources and smelting-separation and is more affected by rare earth price cycles.

7. Risk Warnings

• Rare earth price and profit volatility risk: The company's revenue and profit mainly come from rare earth oxides, rare earth metals, and smelting-separation business, and product prices are heavily affected by supply-demand cycles, policy regulation, and downstream demand; FY 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders showed a loss of RMB 287 million, and Q4 2025 still showed a loss of RMB 19.607 million, so profit stability has not yet been fully verified.
• Raw material supply and cost control risk: The Jianghua rare earth mine's own supply cannot fully cover smelting and separation demand, and some raw materials still need external procurement; if externally procured rare earth raw material prices rise or supply channels are restricted, the company's smelting-separation business profit may be compressed.
• Resource project progress below expectations risk: The Shenggongzhai and Feitian rare earth mines are still in the exploration-to-mining transition stage and cannot yet be regarded as having formed production capacity; if related approvals, construction, or commissioning progress falls below expectations, the company's resource self-sufficiency rate and long-term capacity improvement may be affected.
• Inventory impairment volatility risk: The H1 2026 inventory write-down loss account amount was -RMB 24.6452 million, and the related provision reversal positively affected total profit; if rare earth prices subsequently decline or inventory value decreases, inventory write-down provisions may be re-recognized and weigh on profit.
• Product mix adjustment risk: H1 2026 rare earth metal and alloy revenue declined 47.60% year-on-year, as the company proactively compressed part of its trading and rare earth metal business; if rare earth oxide prices or sales volumes fail to continue improving, product mix adjustment may pressure revenue.
• Valuation and performance realization risk: As of September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 51.93, corresponding to 2026–2028 forecast P/E ratios of approximately 130x, 111x, and 97x based on average institutional forecasts, and the valuation clearly depends on continued realization of rare earth price increases and profit recovery; if actual performance falls below forecasts, valuation volatility risk is relatively high.
• Share price and capital flow risk: The company's share price has fallen below major short- and medium-term moving averages, MACD is negative, main funds showed overall net outflow from September 7 to September 11, and the share price has fallen below the one-month low; RSI oversold may bring a technical rebound, but it does not mean the downtrend has ended.
• Shareholder reduction and market supply risk: Guangdong Rising Holdings plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1% of total share capital within 3 months after 15 trading days from the announcement disclosure date, and as of September 13, 2026, actual execution has not been shown; if the reduction is implemented, it may increase stage-wise stock supply and pressure market sentiment.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company's growth logic mainly comes from improvement in rare earth supply-demand dynamics, changes in prices of praseodymium-neodymium and other products, product mix optimization, improvement in raw material security capability, and the potential advancement of China Rare Earth Group's internal resource integration and mine exploration-to-mining conversion. In H1 2026, the company proactively compressed part of its trading and rare earth metal business, rare earth oxide revenue increased 7.68% year-on-year, and profit growth exceeded revenue growth, indicating that the stage-wise operating focus shifted from scale expansion to earnings quality improvement.

Whether subsequent performance can continue to improve depends on whether rare earth product prices can be maintained, whether the proportion of externally procured raw materials can decline, the capacity release situation at the Jianghua mine, and whether an increased proportion of high-purity oxides and customized products can form a stable profit contribution. The Shenggongzhai and Feitian rare earth mines have not yet formed producible capacity, and there is no specific transaction yet for resource integration and asset injection, so related expectations still need to be verified through actual project progress.

The company's current valuation is at a relatively high level, and profit forecasts are highly sensitive to rare earth prices, inventory impairments, policy regulation, and product mix; technically, it is in a state of both weak adjustment and oversold conditions. In the future, key observations include whether main business profitability improves continuously, whether the sequential weakening of Q2 profit continues, whether cash flow improvement can translate into stable operating results, and whether industry prices and group resource integration expectations are realized.

Data Sources

• Group Overview | China Rare Earth Group Co., Ltd.
• https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202604271821642186_1.PDF?t=1777310844541
• Zhongxi (Hunan) Rare Earth Development Co., Ltd. (formerly Minmetals Rare Earth Jianghua Company)_Park Recruitment_
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: Shenzhen Zhonglian Asset Appraisal Co., Ltd. Verification Opinion on the Reply to Questions Related to the Assessment of the "Review Inquiry Letter Regarding the Application of China Rare Earth Group Resources Technology Co., Ltd. for Issuing Shares to Specific Objects" (Review Letter 〔2023〕No. 120062) Sina Finance_Sina
• [Securities Research Report

Non-Ferrous Metals | Minor Metals

Non-Financial | Initiation Coverage Report

August 5, 2025

China Rare Earth (00](https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202508051721902955_1.PDF?utm_source=openai)

• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report
• Company Announcement_Shenghe Resources: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Guangdong Rising Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report
• 2025 Key Rare Earth Industry Enterprise Development Situation_Baotou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology
• China Rare Earth Group Resources Technology Co., Ltd. 2026 Semi-Annual Report Full Text
• Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth Group Resources Technology Co., Ltd. 2026 Semi-Annual Report Full Text
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Infographic China Rare Earth Interim Report: Q2 Single-Quarter Net Profit Up 10.45% YoY_Stock Channel_Stockstar
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: 2025 Annual Report Summary Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth 2025 Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders RMB 173 Million, Up 160.15% YoY, Main Business Focused on Rare Earth Oxides, Net Margin Turned Positive to 5.42% _ East Money
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth (000831) Profit Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• China Rare Earth (000831) 2026 Interim Report Review: Praseodymium-Neodymium Product Prices Rose, H1 Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders Grew Strongly__Sina Finance_Sina
• Profit Forecast
• Dongguan Securities-China Rare Earth (000831) 2025 Annual Report and 2026 Q1 Report Review: Deeply Benefiting from Industry Integration Wave, Company Performance Steadily Growing-260519.pdf
• China Rare Earth (000831): Industry Trend Leading, Profitability Overall Improved_Company Research_Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth (000831): 2026 Interim Report Review Report: Profit Grew Substantially, Cash Flow Improved Significantly, Long-Term Value Expected to Emerge - Research Report Radar
• www.fxbaogao.com
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Stock Quotes, Quotes Homepage_Cfi.cn
• China Rare Earth (000831) P/E Ratio|Valuation|Fundamentals - Lixinger
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth (000831) Company Announcements_Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: August 17, 2026 Investor Relations Activity Record Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: Announcement on Asset Impairment Provisions for H1 2026 Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: Pre-Disclosure Announcement on Share Reduction Plan by Shareholders Holding More Than 5% Sina Finance_Sina
• China Rare Earth (000831) Company Events_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Company Announcement_China Rare Earth: Progress Announcement on the "Quality and Return Dual Improvement" Action Plan Sina Finance_Sina
• https://disc.static.szse.cn/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-08-08/845fb369-5f0c-48cb-861f-8558bf59881b.PDF
• Shenzhen Stock Exchange Main Board Listed Companies List
• Stock Market Express: China Rare Earth (000831) September 11 Main Funds Net Sold RMB 171 Million_Main Fund Research_Stocks_Stockstar
• China Rare Earth (000831) - Historical Trading Data | DabanKewang
• Minmetals Rare Earth (000831) Stock Quote Trend Technical Analysis_Future Forecast_Buy and Sell Operation Suggestions_Investing.com
• China Rare Earth (000831)_Fund Flow_Stockstar
• China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) Shareholder Research-PC_HSF10 Data

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of the close on September 11, 2026; certain moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and fund flow data may differ due to platform conventions or proprietary calculations — see the relevant indicator notes for details. There may be timeliness differences, and specific data should be based on the company's official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is solely for information compilation and research reference and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.