Report date: 2026-09-13 | Price data: As of the close on September 11, 2026; technical indicators, capital flows and liquidity data are based on the definitions set out in the research note, while some shareholder structure data is as of June 30, 2026 or August 10, 2026, and is subject to reporting period lag. | Sources: 30 | Report engine: v1 (v2 available)

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Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. (Ganfeng Lithium) (002460)

Equity Research Report | Sector: Lithium resource development, deep processing of lithium salts, lithium batteries and recycling | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Prices as of the close on September 11, 2026; technical indicators, capital flow and liquidity data are based on the definitions set out in the research notes; certain shareholder structure data is as of June 30, 2026 or August 10, 2026, and is subject to reporting-period lag.

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

I. Core Summary

Ganfeng Lithium achieved operating revenue of RMB 23.097 billion in the first half of 2026, up 175.75% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.257 billion, up 901.36% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was RMB 3.85 billion, up 521.6% year-on-year, with profit significantly exceeding the full-year 2025 figure of RMB 1.613 billion. The high growth was mainly driven by rising lithium prices; the lithium salt business generated revenue of RMB 14.20 billion with a gross margin of 42.4%, and was the main source of profit elasticity; in the same period, the battery business generated revenue of RMB 7.83 billion, but its gross margin was 12.4%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year.

The Company has built a vertically integrated industrial chain of "resource development—deep processing of lithium salts—batteries and energy storage—recycling," with resource projects in Australia, Argentina, Mali and China, as well as a presence in solid-state batteries, energy storage and end-of-life battery recycling. In 2025, revenue from lithium series products was RMB 12.876 billion, accounting for 55.79% of total revenue; revenue from lithium batteries and battery cells was RMB 8.234 billion, accounting for 35.67%. The business structure has a certain degree of diversification, but overall profitability is still mainly affected by the lithium salt price cycle.

The Company's profit recovery has strong cyclical elasticity, but historical volatility is significant: the gross margin of lithium series products fell from 56.11% in 2022 to 12.53% in 2023, and further to 10.47% in 2024; the Company recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.074 billion in 2024. In the first half of 2026, the overall gross margin was 31.51% and the net margin was 19.19%, indicating clear profit release during the lithium price upcycle, but whether this profitability level can be sustained depends on lithium prices, the supply-demand landscape, the ramp-up of resource projects and cost control.

As of September 11, 2026, the Company's share price was RMB 46.67, down about 13.3% from September 1, close to the 52-week low of RMB 45.19; the share price was slightly below the lower Bollinger Band, MACD was below the zero line, and large orders and block orders saw a net outflow of about RMB 269 million on that day, leaving the short-term technical picture weak. Market forecasts for 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders range from approximately RMB 4.825 billion to RMB 9.334 billion, reflecting considerable divergence, and forward valuation is fairly sensitive to lithium price and shipment assumptions.

II. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

Item	Content
A-share code	002460
Securities short name	Ganfeng Lithium
A-share listing date	August 2010
Headquarters location	Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province
Identity and data definitions	A-share code and company identity confirmed; relevant business composition, customer and supplier data are mainly as of December 31, 2025, and certain capacity and resource volume data are as of the disclosure date of the 2024 annual report
Operating revenue (2025)	RMB 23.082 billion
H-share code	01772

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

Lithium series products: revenue of RMB 12.876 billion in 2025, accounting for 55.79% of operating revenue; products include lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, lithium metal, lithium fluoride, butyllithium, etc.
Lithium batteries and battery cells: revenue of RMB 8.234 billion in 2025, accounting for 35.67% of operating revenue; covering power batteries, energy storage batteries, consumer batteries and solid-state battery-related products
Other businesses: revenue of RMB 1.971 billion in 2025, accounting for 8.54% of operating revenue; including battery recycling, materials and other related businesses
Upstream resource development: presence in spodumene, salt lake, lepidolite and other resource projects involving Australia, Argentina, Mali and China
Downstream batteries and energy storage: including power and energy storage batteries, consumer batteries, solid-state batteries, lithium metal batteries, solid electrolytes, household and large-scale energy storage systems
Battery recycling and integrated energy: including dismantling and comprehensive recycling of end-of-life lithium batteries, and integrated energy and green power supporting businesses
The Company has formed an industrial chain layout of "upstream resource development—midstream deep processing of lithium salts and lithium metal smelting—downstream lithium batteries and energy storage batteries—end-of-life battery recycling," with production capacity for five major categories and more than 40 types of lithium compounds and lithium metal products

2.3 Position in the Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream, and Cost-Profit Structure

Ganfeng Lithium is positioned in the midstream of the lithium industrial chain and has extended upstream into resource development and downstream into batteries, energy storage and recycling, forming a vertically integrated layout of resources, lithium salts, batteries and recycling. The Company still needs to purchase and offtake part of its spodumene externally, and lithium salt products have strong commodity attributes; therefore, overall profitability remains affected by lithium prices and the lithium salt supply-demand cycle.

The Company mainly purchases spodumene concentrate, salt lake brine, lepidolite and other low-grade lithium ores, as well as end-of-life lithium batteries and lithium-containing recycled materials; battery manufacturing also requires cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, separators and structural parts.
Spodumene is purchased under offtake agreements. In 2024, spodumene purchases accounted for 26.53% of total procurement; on a lithium oxide basis, the average purchase price was RMB 92,895.69/tonne in the first half and RMB 86,757.21/tonne in the second half.
Supplier concentration: the top five suppliers accounted for RMB 5.105 billion of purchases in 2024, or 25.12% of total annual procurement; the top five suppliers accounted for RMB 5.987 billion of purchases in 2025, or 25.87% of total procurement. Among them, purchases from Mount Marion Lithium Pty Ltd amounted to RMB 1.386 billion and RMB 1.412 billion, accounting for 6.82% and 6.10%, respectively.
The Company is not a fully resource-self-sufficient company; during a lithium price downturn, the decline in spodumene purchase costs may lag behind the decline in selling prices. The Company has multiple resource projects in Australia, Argentina, Mali and China, and possesses ore-based lithium extraction, salt lake lithium extraction and recycling-based lithium extraction technologies, giving it relatively diversified raw material sources.
The Company has limited control over upstream bulk lithium resource prices; spodumene, salt lake resources and lepidolite prices are affected by lithium product market prices and supply-demand relationships; owned resources and internal synergies can enhance supply security, but cannot fully eliminate spodumene price volatility risk.
Downstream customers for lithium salt products mainly include cathode material companies, battery companies and new energy vehicle industrial chain customers; battery products serve new energy vehicles, energy storage systems, consumer electronics and other end applications.
Products are sold in more than ten countries and regions including China, Japan, South Korea and Germany; core customers include LG Chem, Tesla and BMW; the Company has signed long-term supply contracts or agreements with certain customers, and sales are mainly direct sales, with direct sales accounting for 97.13% of revenue in 2024.
Customer concentration: the top five customers accounted for RMB 4.460 billion of sales in 2024, or 23.58% of operating revenue; the top five customers accounted for RMB 3.523 billion of sales in 2025, or 15.27% of operating revenue. The above data correspond to the 2024 and 2025 annual report definitions, respectively; the 2025 proportion was lower than in 2024, indicating a somewhat more dispersed customer structure.
The annual report does not disclose the real names of major customers, so it is not possible to further judge a single customer's actual bargaining power or customer type; the specific comparability and latest status of the top five customer data should be based on the latest annual report.
Lithium salt products are highly standardized, and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices are affected by supply-demand relationships, inventories and lithium resource prices; the Company has limited control over market benchmark prices; even with independent pricing and direct sales, product selling prices remain constrained by market prices during periods of oversupply or rapid lithium price declines.
Downstream bargaining pressure in the battery business is usually higher than in the lithium salt business. Power battery customers have scale, certification and technical requirements, and may compress supplier profits through annual price reductions, technology iteration and product certification requirements; in 2024, the gross margin of the lithium battery and battery cell business was 11.66%, lower than the profitability of the lithium salt business during the lithium price upcycle.
As of December 31, 2024, the Company's consolidated accounts receivable were RMB 3.967 billion; the research notes list this as approximately 21.0% of that year's operating revenue of RMB 1.8906 billion, but this operating revenue figure is inconsistent with the 2024 revenue definition disclosed elsewhere in the notes, and the specific ratio should be based on the annual report. Accounts receivable in 2023 were RMB 4.948 billion, approximately 15.0% of that year's operating revenue of RMB 3.2972 billion; inventory in 2024 was RMB 8.613 billion, approximately 45.6% of operating revenue, and prepayments were RMB 316 million, approximately 1.7% of operating revenue. The rise in accounts receivable as a proportion of revenue and the relatively high inventory scale indicate that the Company has not demonstrated fully strong bargaining power over downstream customers in terms of capital occupation, while bearing fairly clear lithium price volatility and inventory impairment risk.
Supplier concentration was 25.12% for the top five in 2024 and 25.87% for the top five in 2025; customer concentration was 23.58% for the top five in 2024 and 15.27% for the top five in 2025. The data are labeled with the corresponding years, but the annual report does not disclose the real names of major customers, so it is not possible to cross-check a single customer's bargaining power; the specific figures should be based on the latest annual report. Related or equity projects such as Mount Marion are both resource assets of the Company and important sources of raw material supply, which can enhance supply security but cannot fully eliminate resource price volatility risk.

Year	Gross Margin	Net Margin	Brief Explanation
2021	Gross margin of lithium series products 47.76%	Company overall net margin: not disclosed in the research notes	Lithium product prices and sales volume rose simultaneously, demand for new energy vehicles grew, and lithium salt supply and demand were tight; the Company's lithium product output reached 89,742 tonnes LCE.
2022	Gross margin of lithium series products 56.11%	Company overall net margin: not disclosed in the research notes	Lithium product prices were at high levels, lithium salt supply and demand were tight, and the increase in product prices was significantly higher than the increase in the cost of major raw materials.
2023	Gross margin of lithium series products 12.53%	Company overall net margin: not disclosed in the research notes	Lithium salt prices fell rapidly, and the industry shifted from tight supply to periodic oversupply; the decline in ore mining and extraction costs lagged relatively, and the decline in selling prices exceeded the decline in costs.
2024	Gross margin of lithium series products 10.47%; Company overall sales gross margin approximately 10.82%	Company overall sales net margin was negative	Lithium product prices remained at low levels, and terminal demand growth slowed; although spodumene prices also declined, costs such as raw materials and capacity depreciation still weighed on profits, and both the lithium salt and battery businesses were affected by the lithium price downturn and intensifying market competition.
2025	Gross margin of lithium series products: not fully disclosed in the currently retrievable annual report summary, and cannot be inferred from revenue data	Company overall net margin: not disclosed in the research notes	Revenue from lithium series products in 2025 was RMB 12.876 billion; gross margin details should be based on the complete financial notes of the 2025 annual report, and the research notes do not provide confirmable annual gross margin data.

The Company occupies a midstream processing and comprehensive integration position in the lithium industrial chain, and has extended upstream into resources and downstream into batteries and recycling, making it a comprehensive lithium ecosystem enterprise of "resource development + deep processing of lithium salts + battery manufacturing + recycling." Midstream lithium salts are highly standardized and profitability is clearly affected by the lithium price cycle; further profit improvement mainly depends on lithium prices and improvements in lithium salt supply and demand, lower raw material costs brought by the ramp-up of owned resources and project ramp-up, product mix upgrading, and the achievement of scaled profitability in the battery and recycling businesses.

III. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Reporting Period	Operating Revenue	YoY	Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	YoY
2026H1 (as of 2026-06-30)	RMB 23.097 billion	+175.75%	RMB 4.257 billion	+901.36%
2026Q2	RMB 13.90 billion	+201.9%	RMB 2.42 billion	+1479.6%
2026Q1	RMB 9.20 billion	+143.8%	RMB 1.837 billion	+616.34%
2025 (annual report)	RMB 23.082 billion	+22.08%	RMB 1.613 billion	+177.77%
2025Q4	RMB 8.457 billion	+69.78%	RMB 1.587 billion	Data missing (the notes do not provide the YoY growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025Q4, only noting deducted non-recurring profit of RMB 557 million)
2024 (annual report)	RMB 18.906 billion	-42.66%	-RMB 2.074 billion	Data missing (the notes only state that the prior-year same period was +RMB 4.947 billion, without giving the YoY growth rate)
2023	Approximately RMB 32.97 billion	Data missing (the notes do not provide the 2023 revenue YoY growth rate)	RMB 4.947 billion	Data missing (the notes do not provide the 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders YoY growth rate)

Data source: Ganfeng Lithium 2026 interim report (as of 2026-06-30), 2025 annual report, 2024 annual report, 2023 annual report; 2026H1 data was cross-verified from three sources: Securities Star financial summary, East Money quote page, and Soochow/Sina research reports. Supplementary note: 2026H1 net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was RMB 3.85 billion, +521.6% year-on-year (Soochow Securities interim report review); 2026Q2 deducted non-recurring profit was RMB 2.43 billion, +462.2% year-on-year and +71.2% quarter-on-quarter; the quarter-on-quarter growth rate data is not listed separately in the table among the single-quarter revenue and net profit YoY growth rates. Profit quality indicators (as of the interim report): gross margin 31.51%, net margin 19.19%, ROE 9.09%, debt-to-asset ratio 55.12%, net assets per share approximately RMB 22.99. Segment data: 26H1 lithium salt business revenue RMB 14.20 billion, +198.5% year-on-year, gross margin 42.4% (+34.1pct year-on-year); battery business revenue RMB 7.83 billion, +163.2% year-on-year, gross margin 12.4% (-1.7pct year-on-year). 2026Q2 revenue +51.2% quarter-on-quarter, net profit attributable to shareholders +31.7% quarter-on-quarter.

In the first half of 2026, the Company's performance grew substantially, with revenue of RMB 23.097 billion, +175.75% year-on-year, net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.257 billion, +901.36% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items of RMB 3.85 billion, +521.6% year-on-year. By quarter, 2026Q2 single-quarter revenue was RMB 13.90 billion, +201.9% year-on-year and +51.2% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.42 billion, +1479.6% year-on-year and +31.7% quarter-on-quarter, with the quarter-on-quarter growth rate slowing noticeably from Q1 but still maintaining growth; 2026Q1 revenue was RMB 9.20 billion, +143.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.837 billion, +616.34% year-on-year. From a historical comparison, the Company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was a loss of RMB 2.074 billion, and in 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders turned positive at RMB 1.613 billion, of which 2025Q4 contributed RMB 1.587 billion in a single quarter (deducted non-recurring profit of RMB 557 million), accounting for almost all of the full-year profit, indicating that the 2025 annual report had already improved substantially due to rising lithium prices; the 2026H1 profit scale has already far exceeded the full-year 2025 level. At the segment level, the gross margin of the lithium salt business was 42.4% (+34.1pct year-on-year), the main source of profit elasticity; the gross margin of the battery business was 12.4% (-1.7pct year-on-year), with a weakening marginal profit contribution. Overall, profit improvement was mainly driven by rising lithium prices, and attention should be paid to the impact of lithium price volatility on earnings in subsequent quarters.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

The consensus source is the East Money F10 "Earnings Forecast" page (http://emweb.securities.eastmoney.com/ProfitForecast/index?code=SZ002460), including two snapshots: Snapshot A (12 institutions) 2026E/2027E/2028E net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.925/8.389/10.49 billion, revenue of RMB 44.36/51.97/63.39 billion, EPS of RMB 3.30/4.00/5.00, ROE 13.79%/14.57%/15.71%; Snapshot B (11 institutions) 2026E/2027E/2028E net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.376/8.893/10.48 billion, EPS of RMB 3.52/4.24/5.00. Important note: institutional forecasts are extremely dispersed, with the single-institution range for 2026E net profit ranging from RMB 1.353 billion (Hua'an Securities, 2025-11-06, clearly outdated) to RMB 9.334 billion (Soochow Securities); excluding outdated reports, the mainstream range is approximately RMB 4.825 billion (CICC, 2026-04-03) to RMB 9.334 billion (Soochow, 2026-07-15), which constitutes a "multi-institution consensus" but is highly non-convergent internally and must be cited with caution. Major single-institution forecasts: Soochow Securities (2026-08-29) expects 2026-2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 9.3/11.2/12.6 billion, +479%/+20%/+13% year-on-year, revenue of RMB 42.799/48.764/53.265 billion, EPS of RMB 4.45/5.35/6.03; Guolian Minsheng (2026-04-07) expects 2026-2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.79/11.68/15.77 billion; Guotai Haitong (2026-04-09) expects 2026 net profit of approximately RMB 6.639 billion, raising 2026-2027 EPS to RMB 3.17/4.12 and adding 2028 EPS of RMB 3.11; Huatai Securities (2026-05-04) expects 2026 net profit of approximately RMB 6.465 billion, EPS of RMB 3.39/4.13/4.74; CITIC Securities (2026-05-06) EPS of RMB 4.30/4.90/6.03; China Merchants Securities (2026-05-03) EPS of RMB 4.11/4.33/5.65; Huaxin Securities (2026-04-27) EPS of RMB 3.07/3.49/3.66; Zhongyuan Securities (2026-04-08) 2026 net profit of RMB 6.217 billion, EPS of RMB 2.97/3.55/4.11; CICC (2026-04-03) 2026 net profit of RMB 4.825 billion, EPS of RMB 2.30/2.79 (noticeably conservative); Huayuan Securities (2026-04-07) 2026 net profit of RMB 7.201 billion. Overseas/Hong Kong-funded institutions (mostly for H-shares 01772): Macquarie (2026-04-01/02) raised 2026-2027 after-tax net profit by 8%/9% each to RMB 4.4 billion/5.0 billion, adding RMB 5.6 billion for 2028; DBS (2026-01-30) 2026 EPS of RMB 1.85 (noticeably lower than most subsequent domestic institutions, with an earlier publication date); UOB Kay Hian (2026-01-26) 2026/2027 net profit of RMB 3.21 billion/5.24 billion. The above institutional forecasts are forecast values, not official disclosures.

Year	Operating Revenue	Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	Net Profit Growth Rate	Earnings Per Share (EPS)
2026E	RMB 44.36 billion (consensus Snapshot A, 12 institutions)	RMB 6.925 billion (consensus Snapshot A, 12 institutions)	Data missing (the notes do not provide the 2026E consensus YoY growth rate)	RMB 3.30 (consensus Snapshot A)
2027E	RMB 51.97 billion (consensus Snapshot A, 12 institutions)	RMB 8.389 billion (consensus Snapshot A, 12 institutions)	Data missing (the notes do not provide the 2027E consensus YoY growth rate)	RMB 4.00 (consensus Snapshot A)
2028E	RMB 63.39 billion (consensus Snapshot A, 12 institutions)	RMB 10.49 billion (consensus Snapshot A, 12 institutions)	Data missing (the notes do not provide the 2028E consensus YoY growth rate)	RMB 5.00 (consensus Snapshot A)

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

Institution	Rating	Date	Remarks
Soochow Securities	Buy	2026-08-29	Interim report review (2nd update), maintained Buy; expects 2026-2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 9.3/11.2/12.6 billion, corresponding to PE 12x/10x/9x
Guolian Minsheng	Recommend	2026-04-07	Upgraded rating; no target price given; expects 2026-2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.79/11.68/15.77 billion, corresponding to PE 19x/14x/11x based on the April 3 close
Guotai Haitong	Overweight	2026-04-09	Target price RMB 95.1 (based on 30x 2026 PE), raised 2026-2027 EPS to RMB 3.17/4.12, added 2028 EPS of RMB 3.11, 2026 net profit forecast of approximately RMB 6.639 billion
Huatai Securities	Overweight	2026-05-04	Target price RMB 92.4, EPS of RMB 3.39/4.13/4.74 (2026 net profit approximately RMB 6.465 billion)
CITIC Securities	Buy	2026-05-06	EPS of RMB 4.30/4.90/6.03
China Merchants Securities	Buy	2026-05-03	EPS of RMB 4.11/4.33/5.65
Huaxin Securities	Buy	2026-04-27	EPS of RMB 3.07/3.49/3.66
Zhongyuan Securities	Overweight	2026-04-08	2026 net profit of RMB 6.217 billion, EPS of RMB 2.97/3.55/4.11
CICC	Data missing (the notes do not explicitly list a rating)	2026-04-03	Target price RMB 87.43, 2026 net profit of RMB 4.825 billion, EPS of RMB 2.30/2.79 (noticeably conservative)
Huayuan Securities	Data missing (the notes do not explicitly list a rating)	2026-04-07	2026 net profit of RMB 7.201 billion
Goldman Sachs	Sell	2026-09-03	Maintained Sell, target price RMB 45 (lowered from RMB 53)
HSBC	Buy	2026-04-14	Target price RMB 98
JPMorgan	Neutral (2026-04-16); Overweight (A-shares, upgraded 2026-07-09)	2026-04-16 (also 2026-07-09)	2026-04-16 Neutral, target price RMB 80; 2026-07-09 A-share rating upgraded from Neutral to Overweight, target price RMB 80
Macquarie	Buy (Outperform)	2026-03-04 (also 2026-04-01/02)	2026-03-04 Buy, target price RMB 84.30; 2026-04-01/02 maintained Outperform, target price HKD 86 (H-shares), raised 2026-2027 after-tax net profit by 8%/9% each to RMB 4.4 billion/5.0 billion, adding RMB 5.6 billion for 2028
DBS	Buy	2026-01-30	Maintained Buy; A-share target price raised from RMB 45 to RMB 92, H-share target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 83; 2026 EPS of RMB 1.85 (noticeably lower than most subsequent domestic institutions, with an earlier publication date)
UOB Kay Hian	Buy	2026-01-26	H-share target price HKD 90, A-share target price raised from RMB 72 to RMB 80; 2026/2027 net profit of RMB 3.21 billion/5.24 billion
Consensus overview (Investing.com)	Of 19 analysts, 17 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell	As of early September 2026	12-month average target price RMB 85.38, high RMB 112, low RMB 45; corresponding upside of approximately +73.9%; 52-week share price range RMB 45.19–91.67
Tonghuashun iFinD summary (past 6 months)	Data missing (the notes do not provide a unified rating)	2026-04-08	8 institutions, 2026 highest target price RMB 95.10, lowest RMB 87.43, average RMB 91.64; 2026 net profit forecast highest RMB 9.334 billion, lowest RMB 1.353 billion, average RMB 5.843 billion

As of the close on 2026-09-11, the Company's share price was RMB 46.67, -3.45% (-RMB 1.67) on the day, previous close RMB 48.34; total market capitalization RMB 97.853 billion, free-float market capitalization RMB 56.535 billion; total share capital 2.097 billion shares, free-float share capital 1.211 billion shares. Valuation indicators: dynamic PE 11.49x (based on annualized 2026H1 profit), static PE 60.67x (based on 2025 annual report profit of RMB 1.613 billion), trailing PE (TTM) 15.29x (based on TTM net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 6.40 billion); PB 2.03x (net assets per share approximately RMB 22.99). Forward PE: approximately 14.1x based on the 12-institution consensus 2026E net profit of RMB 6.925 billion, approximately 11.7x based on 2027E RMB 8.389 billion, and approximately 9.3x based on 2028E RMB 10.49 billion; if using Soochow Securities' more optimistic RMB 9.3/11.2/12.6 billion, the implied figures are approximately 10.5x/8.7x/7.8x; if using CICC's conservative RMB 4.825 billion, then 2026E is approximately 20x. Compared with institutional target prices, the current share price of RMB 46.67 is significantly below the mainstream institutional target price range of RMB 80–98 and the average target price of RMB 85.38, but Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating with a target price of only RMB 45, showing significant divergence from other institutions. Valuation uncertainty mainly comes from: first, institutional 2026E net profit forecasts are highly non-convergent (approximately RMB 4.8 billion–9.3 billion), and forward valuation is highly sensitive to lithium price and shipment assumptions; second, dynamic PE (11.49), static PE (60.67) and TTM PE (15.29) differ greatly and the definitions must be specified; third, Goldman Sachs's bearish view is severely divergent from mainstream Buy/Overweight views and should be presented side by side rather than directly accepted; fourth, some institutional forecast samples (Hua'an Securities 2025-11, DBS 2026-01, etc.) are clearly outdated, and when citing consensus, the number of institutions and dates must be noted to avoid being misled by averages.

IV. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Ganfeng Lithium Releases 2026 H1 Results: Net Profit of RMB 4.257 Billion, Turning Profitable Year-on-Year

Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) released its 2026 interim results, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.257 billion, turning profitable year-on-year, an increase of 901.36%.

4.2 Ganfeng Lithium Held an Earnings Briefing on August 31, 2026

Ganfeng Lithium held an earnings briefing on August 31, 2026, with investor participation, and formed the "August 31, 2026 Investor Relations Activity Record Form."

4.3 Ganfeng Lithium Vice President Fu Lihua's Reduction Plan Expired Without Implementation

Ganfeng Lithium announced that the reduction plan period of Vice President Fu Lihua expired without implementation of any reduction, and he still holds 215,050 shares.

4.4 Ganfeng Lithium Progress Announcement on Providing Guarantees for a Controlled Subsidiary

Ganfeng Lithium issued a progress announcement on providing guarantees for a controlled subsidiary.

4.5 Ganfeng Lithium: Continues to Deeply Cultivate Solid-State Battery Technology and Steadily Advance Multi-Scenario Commercialization

Ganfeng Lithium stated that it continues to deeply cultivate solid-state battery technology and steadily advance multi-scenario commercialization.

4.6 Ganfeng Lithium: Case Transferred to the Procuratorate for Review and Prosecution Due to Suspected Unit Crime of Insider Trading

Ganfeng Lithium announced that, due to suspected unit crime of insider trading, the case has been transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution. Previously, the Company received a notice of transfer for prosecution from the Yichun Municipal Public Security Bureau. The relevant announcement numbers are Lin 2025-109 and Lin 2025-118. This matter also involves an announcement by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

4.7 Ganfeng Lithium A-Share Buyback: Spent RMB 297 Million Repurchasing A-Shares Yesterday

Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) spent RMB 297 million repurchasing A-shares yesterday.

4.8 Ganfeng Lithium Responds to Investor Suggestion on Profit-Funded Buyback and Cancellation: Thanks Investors for the Relevant Suggestion

An investor suggested that the Company use 10% of profit each year for buyback and cancellation, and Ganfeng Lithium responded by thanking the investor for the relevant suggestion on profit-funded buyback and cancellation.

4.9 Ganfeng Lithium Subsidiary Buyback: Some Employee Stock Ownership Platform Buyback Agreements Were Not Disclosed, but Were Executed at a 6% "Strategic Investment Annualized" Rate

According to a Daily Economic News report, in the buyback matter of lithium mining giant Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary, some employee stock ownership platform buyback agreements were not disclosed, but were executed at a 6% "strategic investment annualized" rate.

4.10 Ganfeng Lithium Main Funds Net Sold RMB 269 Million on September 11

A stock market express report showed that Ganfeng Lithium (002460) main funds net sold RMB 269 million on September 11.

4.11 New Lithium Supply Landscape: The "Two Giants Era" Ends, Shengxin and Tianhua Break Through Strongly

An industry report pointed out that a new lithium supply landscape has emerged, with the "two giants era" ending and Shengxin and Tianhua breaking through strongly; Ganfeng Lithium is one of the related companies in the industry.

V. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

Indicator	Value
Closing price	RMB 46.67
Daily change	Down RMB 1.67, decline of 3.45%
Intraday open/high/low	RMB 47.31/47.38/45.77
Trading volume	Approximately 31.28 million shares
Turnover	Approximately RMB 1.452 billion
Turnover rate	2.58%
Dynamic P/E	Approximately 15.29x to 15.36x
52-week high/low	RMB 91.67/45.19; current price is approximately RMB 1.48 from the 52-week low
Recent price performance	From September 1 to September 11, the closing price fell from RMB 53.81 to RMB 46.67, a decline of approximately 13.3%; from August 24 to September 11, the drawdown was approximately 15.1%

5.2 Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Brief Interpretation
Bollinger Bands	Upper band RMB 56.78; middle band RMB 51.73; lower band RMB 46.68; bandwidth approximately RMB 10.10	The closing price of RMB 46.67 is slightly below the lower Bollinger Band and clearly below the middle band, at the lower edge of the 20-day price range, with obvious short-term weakness; being near or below the lower band does not mean an immediate reversal and may still represent continuation of the downtrend.
Approximate MA20	Approximately RMB 51.73	The Bollinger middle band usually uses the 20-day moving average; the current share price is below this level, and the short-term trend is weak.
MA5, MA10	As of September 11, 2026, precise values could not be confirmed from synchronously updated and cross-verifiable public pages	It cannot be rigorously asserted on this basis that MA5, MA10 and MA20 have formed a complete bearish alignment.
MACD	Main value approximately -1.5263, signal line approximately -1.0292, histogram approximately -0.4971; another snapshot shows main value approximately -1.3195, signal line approximately -0.9049, histogram approximately -0.4146	The two data sets point in the same direction: MACD is below the zero line, the histogram is negative, and the main value is below the signal line; short-term downward momentum remains dominant, and no clear golden cross repair signal has yet appeared.
RSI	RSI approximately 31.99; other technical snapshots approximately 36.15 and 38.28; Investing RSI(14) approximately 39.75; another single platform shows RSI6 approximately 24	RSI has approached or entered the weak zone; 31.99 indicates that the short term is close to oversold territory, but it has not yet stably fallen below 30, so a strong reversal cannot be determined based on RSI alone; the calculation definition of RSI6 is not fully disclosed and cannot be directly compared with RSI(14).
Recent volume-price relationship	September 11 trading volume was approximately 31.28 million shares, higher than approximately 15.46 million shares on September 10, but lower than approximately 42.19 million shares on September 2 and the approximately 47.48 million-share average over the past 3 months	The share price fell on September 11 and volume expanded versus the previous day, which is closer to weak volume expansion on a probe lower rather than clear volume expansion with support.
Main capital flow	On September 11, block orders saw a net outflow of approximately RMB 140.3 million, large orders saw a net outflow of approximately RMB 128.7 million, totaling a net outflow of approximately RMB 269 million; medium orders saw a net inflow of approximately RMB 88.1 million, and small orders saw a net inflow of approximately RMB 180.9 million	Large and block orders flowed out while medium and small orders absorbed, leaving the short-term capital picture weak; over the past 5 days, large and block orders saw a net outflow of approximately RMB 446 million, and over the past 10 days a total net outflow of approximately RMB 778 million. This data is an estimated definition based on trade order size and is not equivalent to the actual capital flow of institutional accounts.
Trend judgment	The share price has continued to move lower since early September and is currently near the lower Bollinger Band and the 52-week low	The short-term technical structure is bearish, and no clear stabilizing signal has yet appeared; because precise MA5 and MA10 values are missing, no definitive judgment is made on the complete moving-average alignment.

As of September 11, 2026, Ganfeng Lithium closed at RMB 46.67, down approximately 13.3% from the September 1 close of RMB 53.81, and has recently been in a weak correction state. The share price is slightly below the lower Bollinger Band of RMB 46.68, clearly below the Bollinger middle band/approximate MA20 of RMB 51.73, and close to the 52-week low of RMB 45.19; MACD is below the zero line with a negative histogram, and RSI is close to the weak or oversold zone, but this alone is not enough to confirm a reversal. On September 11, turnover was approximately RMB 1.452 billion, the turnover rate was 2.58%, and volume expanded versus the previous day but remained below the average of the past 3 months; at the same time, large and block orders saw a net outflow of approximately RMB 269 million, indicating that short-term support remains insufficient.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is a subjective scenario projection based solely on the closing price as of September 11, 2026, historical market data, public technical indicators and capital flow data. It does not constitute investment advice and does not represent a deterministic forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

Level	Range	Explanation
Short-term resistance	RMB 51.5~52.2	Main reference is the Bollinger middle band/approximate MA20 at approximately RMB 51.73 and the early September price congestion area. Only if the price regains a firm footing around RMB 52.0 on increased volume could room open for repair toward the RMB 53.5~55.0 area.
First support	RMB 45.8~46.7	Main reference is the September 11 low of RMB 45.77, the closing price of RMB 46.67 and the lower Bollinger Band of RMB 46.68. If this area stabilizes on reduced volume, a technical rebound may occur; if it breaks below RMB 45.8 on increased volume, the weak structure may spread toward the 52-week low.
Strong support	RMB 45.2~45.6	Main reference is the 52-week low of RMB 45.19. If RMB 45.2 is effectively broken on increased volume, the next stage would require watching the RMB 43.5~44.5 area, and RMB 46 or thereabouts can no longer simply be treated as support.

② Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

Weak consolidation or technical repair (relatively high weight, approximately 50% to 60%; this weight is a subjective heuristic judgment based on the current technical and capital structure, not a statistical probability): price range of RMB 45.8~49.5. Trigger conditions include the share price stabilizing in the RMB 45.2~46.7 area, turnover remaining at around RMB 1.0~1.6 billion, the net outflow of main funds narrowing, and no further systemic decline in the lithium battery and nonferrous metals sectors. RSI approaching the weak oversold zone may bring a short-term rebound, but if the price cannot regain a footing near RMB 49.5, the rebound is still biased toward technical repair.
Weaker downside (moderate weight, approximately 30%; this weight is a subjective scenario weight, not a statistical probability): price range of RMB 43.5~45.8. Trigger conditions include the share price effectively breaking below RMB 45.2~45.6, turnover expanding to above RMB 1.8~2.0 billion, continuous net outflows from large and block orders, and continued weakness in lithium carbonate futures, lithium mining or the new energy sector. If there is a volume-driven break below RMB 45.2, the technical picture may shift from weak consolidation near the lower Bollinger Band to a new leg lower.
Strengthening rebound (relatively low weight, approximately 10% to 20%; this weight is a subjective judgment, not a statistical probability): price range of RMB 49.5~52.5. Trigger conditions include the share price regaining a footing at RMB 49.5~50.0, turnover reaching above RMB 1.8~2.0 billion for two consecutive trading days, main funds shifting from net outflow to continuous net inflow, MACD green bars narrowing with a low-level golden cross, and a simultaneous rebound in the lithium battery sector. If the price further holds above the Bollinger middle band/approximate MA20 near RMB 51.7, the rebound structure would strengthen noticeably.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the turnover rate was 2.58%, and turnover was approximately RMB 1.452 billion; in recent trading days, the turnover rate has been approximately 1.28%~3.48%, with turnover mostly in the RMB 750 million~1.56 billion range, and on more volatile days it can exceed RMB 2.0 billion, which is a moderately active level for a large-cap cyclical stock, but no sustained volume-driven advance has formed. In terms of shareholder structure, as of June 30, 2026, the top ten shareholders together held approximately 1.144 billion shares, accounting for approximately 54.56% of total share capital; the top ten free-float shareholders together held approximately 745 million A- and H-share free-float shares, accounting for approximately 44% of A- and H-share free float. The top ten shareholders include HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED, Li Liangbin, Wang Xiaoshen, Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited, as well as index funds such as Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF and GF Guozheng New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF; no social security fund or typical actively managed public fund with prominent concentrated holdings was observed. This concentration data is as of June 30, 2026, and the number of shareholders rose to 353,177 households as of August 10, 2026, neither of which is equivalent to the real-time chip structure as of September 11, 2026. The practical implication is: the Company has relatively good daily trading liquidity, but has not yet formed sustained volume-driven absorption; the top ten shareholders hold a relatively high proportion, but the chips are not entirely concentrated in a small number of institutional accounts, and the short-term price remains susceptible to sector sentiment, capital rotation and large-order trading.

If turnover reaches above RMB 1.8~2.0 billion for two consecutive trading days thereafter while the share price simultaneously holds at RMB 49.5~50.0, this can be regarded as an observation signal of improved short-term capital absorption; if turnover expands but the share price falls below RMB 45.2, it is more indicative of a signal of selling pressure release.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)

Observe whether the RMB 45.8~46.7 area can stabilize on reduced volume, and whether the strong support near RMB 45.2 is effective; this content is an observation idea, not an operational instruction.
Observe whether the share price can regain a footing at RMB 49.5~50.0 and be confirmed by expanded turnover, rather than a single-day rebound on low volume; this content is an observation idea, not an operational instruction.
Observe whether the RMB 51.5~52.2 resistance area can be broken and held, as this range corresponds to the Bollinger middle band/approximate MA20; this content is an observation idea, not an operational instruction.
Observe whether main funds end their continuous net outflow; turnover reaching above RMB 1.8~2.0 billion for two consecutive trading days with the share price strengthening simultaneously can serve as a check signal for improved volume-price coordination; this content is an observation idea, not an operational instruction.

The above scenario projection is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026 and historical prices and technical indicator calculations; short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news flow, capital conditions, the broader market environment, lithium prices and sector performance. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future movements, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments in light of the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

VI. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The lithium industry has resource, capital, technology and scale barriers. Chinese companies occupy an important position in the global lithium salt processing segment, but lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide capacity has expanded rapidly, competition in midstream standardized products is relatively intense, and industry profits are significantly affected by the lithium price cycle and supply-demand changes.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

Upstream resource competition: overseas spodumene, salt lake and domestic lepidolite resources are core competitive factors.
Midstream capacity competition: lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide capacity has expanded rapidly, and supply release may cause periodic oversupply.
Cost competition: salt lake lithium extraction, high-quality spodumene and low-cost lepidolite lithium extraction projects have cost advantages.
Customer certification competition: battery-grade products require a relatively long introduction cycle, and stable supply and product consistency constitute customer barriers.
Integration competition: leading companies have extended into resources, batteries, energy storage and recycling to reduce the impact of a single lithium salt price cycle.
Technology competition: direct lithium extraction, low-grade ore lithium extraction, lithium battery recycling, solid-state batteries and lithium metal anodes are the main technology directions.
2024 industry research materials believe that the global lithium resource and lithium salt market still has relatively high concentration; however, this industry research data is not regulatory disclosure data, and specific market shares must be used cautiously in light of statistical definitions.

6.3 Major Competitors

Company	Positioning	Explanation
Tianqi Lithium (002466)	Skewed toward upstream resources and lithium chemicals	Core advantage lies in high-quality spodumene resources such as Greenbushes in Australia; battery manufacturing and recycling layout is relatively limited.
Shengxin Lithium (002240)	Lithium salt and lithium resource company	Mainly engaged in battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, with lithium resource layout in Sichuan and overseas; compared with Ganfeng, its battery business scale and vertical industrial chain extension are relatively smaller.
Yahua Group (002497)	Lithium salts and civil explosives business	Operates lithium salt products such as lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate while also operating a civil explosives business; comparability with Ganfeng is mainly concentrated in the lithium salt segment.
Sinomine Resource (002738)	Overseas lithium resources, lithium salt processing and cesium-rubidium business	Owns lithium resource projects such as Bikita in Zimbabwe; compared with Ganfeng, its downstream battery manufacturing, energy storage and recycling layout is weaker.
Yongxing Materials (002756)	Lepidolite resources and lithium carbonate business	Relies on lepidolite resources in Yichun, Jiangxi to develop lithium carbonate while also having a special steel business; its resource type is more concentrated in lepidolite, and its overseas layout and downstream battery extension are inferior to Ganfeng's.
Other historical peer comparison companies	Lithium resources, lithium salts and related companies	Ganfeng Lithium's peer comparison list disclosed in 2023 also included Tianhua Chaonjing, Jiangte Electric, Rongjie Co., etc.; this comparison table is based on 2021 data and should not be used directly to judge 2025–2026 market share or ranking.

Compared with comparable companies, Ganfeng Lithium has broader industrial chain coverage, multi-source resource reserves, multiple lithium extraction technologies, a relatively complete lithium salt product matrix, and battery, energy storage and recycling business layouts; however, its profitability is still mainly affected by the lithium salt price cycle. Companies such as Tianqi Lithium are more representative in high-quality upstream resources, the comparability of Shengxin Lithium and Yahua Group with Ganfeng is mainly concentrated in the lithium salt business, while Sinomine Resource and Yongxing Materials each have distinctive features in overseas resources and lepidolite resources, respectively. The above industry research and historical peer comparison materials are subject to statistical definition and year limitations and cannot be used to directly infer current market share or industry ranking.

VII. Risk Warnings

Lithium price and supply-demand cycle risk: the Company's substantial profit growth in the first half of 2026 was mainly driven by rising lithium prices, while lithium salt gross margins fell sharply in 2023–2024 and losses occurred. If lithium prices fall again or the industry experiences periodic oversupply, the Company's lithium salt selling prices and profitability may decline rapidly.
Raw material procurement and cost mismatch risk: the Company still needs to purchase and offtake part of its spodumene, with spodumene purchases accounting for 26.53% of total procurement in 2024; during a lithium price downturn, purchase costs may lag behind the decline in selling prices, and external raw material price fluctuations may compress lithium salt business profits.
Inventory and working capital risk: as of the end of 2024, inventory was RMB 8.613 billion, a relatively high scale; accounts receivable were RMB 3.967 billion, and the related revenue ratio in the research notes is still inconsistent. If lithium prices fall or product sales slow, the Company may face inventory impairment, capital occupation and accounts receivable collection pressure.
Battery business profitability risk: in the first half of 2026, battery business revenue grew 163.2% year-on-year, but the gross margin was only 12.4%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year; annual price reductions, certification and technology iteration requirements from power battery customers may continue to compress profits in this business, and revenue growth may not necessarily translate into profit growth at the same pace.
Overseas resources and project advancement risk: the Company's resource projects are distributed in Australia, Argentina, Mali and China, and project returns are affected by local policies, construction progress, resource grade, lithium extraction technology and project ramp-up; owned resources and internal synergies cannot fully eliminate uncertainties in overseas operations and resource development.
Legal and corporate governance risk: due to suspected unit crime of insider trading, the case has been transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution; if subsequent matters produce further regulatory, litigation, penalty or reputational impact, this may adversely affect corporate governance, business arrangements and market valuation.
Guarantee and subsidiary matter risk: the Company recently disclosed progress on providing guarantees for a controlled subsidiary; if the relevant subsidiary faces pressure on operations or cash flow, this may increase the Company's contingent liabilities, capital occupation and credit risk.
Performance forecast and valuation volatility risk: institutional forecasts for 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders range from approximately RMB 4.825 billion to RMB 9.334 billion, a relatively wide forecast range; the Company's static PE, TTM PE and forward PE differ greatly, and if lithium prices or profit realization fall short of expectations, the valuation center and share price may continue to come under pressure.
Short-term technical and capital flow risk: as of September 11, 2026, the share price was close to the 52-week low, MACD was below the zero line, and large and block orders saw continuous net outflows; if support near RMB 45.2 is broken on increased volume, technical weakness may continue, but technical indicators themselves cannot represent changes in the Company's long-term fundamentals.

VIII. Conclusion and Outlook

Ganfeng Lithium's growth logic mainly comes from the lithium salt profit elasticity brought by recovering lithium prices, the advancement of owned and equity resource projects, synergies between the lithium salt product matrix and the battery business, and the potential incremental contribution from solid-state batteries, energy storage and recycling businesses. The substantial improvement in the lithium salt business gross margin in the first half of 2026 verified the Company's ability to release profits during the upcycle; at the same time, industrial chain integration and multi-source resource layout help enhance raw material security, but cannot fully eliminate the impact of externally purchased spodumene and market-based lithium price volatility.

Looking ahead, the Company's performance still requires observation of changes in lithium prices and lithium salt supply and demand, the ramp-up progress of resource projects, the profitability improvement of the battery business, and the scaled contribution of the recycling and solid-state battery businesses. Institutional forecasts show that revenue and profit are still expected to grow in 2026–2028, but earnings forecasts vary greatly among institutions, indicating that the market has not yet formed a stable consensus on cycle sustainability and the profit center.

The Company currently has both improved fundamentals and a weak technical share price trend, and short-term market pricing may be affected simultaneously by earnings realization, lithium price expectations, capital flows and industry sentiment. In addition, the case involving suspected unit crime of insider trading has been transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution, and related matters, as well as corporate governance and contingent matters such as guarantees provided for controlled subsidiaries, also require continuous attention to subsequent developments and potential impacts.

Data Sources

Reports are generated by AI from public online information and may contain errors or outdated information. They are for research only, not investment advice. Verify material facts against company filings and authoritative sources.