Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. (Semir Garment) (002563)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Mass Casual Apparel and Children's Apparel | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Based on the close of September 11, 2026; certain technical indicators as of September 7, 2026, shareholder structure data as of March 31, 2026 or June 30, 2026, as specifically noted in the relevant fields.

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Semir Garment's operations improved markedly in the first half of 2026: operating revenue of RMB 6.722 billion, up 9.32% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent of RMB 479 million, up 47.45% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent after deducting non-recurring items of RMB 472 million, up 59.27% year-on-year; net cash flow from operating activities turned from a net outflow of RMB 277 million in the same period last year to a net inflow of RMB 269 million. The consolidated gross margin rose to 47.78% over the same period, indicating that both the profit growth rate and the cash flow recovery exceeded revenue growth, which is the most decision-relevant change at present.

The company's growth is still primarily driven by Balabala children's apparel. In the first half of 2026, children's apparel revenue was RMB 4.827 billion, up 11.92% year-on-year, accounting for 71.81%; online and direct-operated revenue grew 13.10% and 23.32% respectively, while franchise revenue grew only 0.68%. Although the Semir brand and adult casual business have achieved some recovery, the company's overall business structure still exhibits the characteristics of "children's apparel dominating, adult casual under pressure."

Profit improvement is accompanied by relatively high operating investment and inventory pressure. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 3.17%, but net profit attributable to parent fell 21.54%, mainly due to direct-operated expansion, online traffic investment, brand promotion, and increased asset impairment losses; in the first half of 2026, asset impairment losses further rose to RMB 258 million, mainly due to increased provisions for price declines on older inventory. As of period-end, the company's inventory book value was RMB 2.832 billion, store count decreased by a net 314 from the beginning of the year to 7,617, with franchise stores decreasing by 309, and channel adjustment continues.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price closed at RMB 5.61, below MA5, MA10, and MA20, with a weak short-term technical pattern, but RSI6 at approximately 47, not yet entering the traditional oversold zone, and the recent pullback has not been accompanied by notable volume expansion. Based on the closing price of RMB 5.84 on September 4, 2026, PE-TTM is approximately 15.03x, PB approximately 1.42x, and valuation is roughly near the historical median; market institutions' average forecasts for net profit attributable to parent for 2026–2028 are RMB 1.105 billion, RMB 1.214 billion, and RMB 1.341 billion, but these forecasts are not company performance commitments.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Semir brand: positioned in mass casual apparel, targeting mass families and young consumers, covering scenarios such as daily casual, urban commuting, and light sports
• Balabala brand: positioned in children's apparel, covering children aged 0–14, with products including children's clothing, children's shoes, children's accessories, and some home and supplies products
• Casual apparel: 2025 revenue of RMB 4.055 billion, accounting for 26.87% of operating revenue, down 3.22% year-on-year
• Children's apparel: 2025 revenue of RMB 10.800 billion, accounting for 71.57% of operating revenue, up 5.18% year-on-year
• Other businesses: 2025 revenue of RMB 234 million, accounting for 1.55% of operating revenue, up 39.82% year-on-year
• Sales channels: 2025 online sales revenue of RMB 6.972 billion, accounting for 46.21%; franchise sales revenue of RMB 5.769 billion, accounting for 38.23%; direct-operated sales revenue of RMB 2.016 billion, accounting for 13.36%; joint-operation sales revenue of RMB 98 million, accounting for 0.65%

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

Semir Garment is positioned in the downstream brand operations and retail segment of the apparel industry chain, with midstream production mainly outsourced. The company's core capabilities are design and R&D, merchandise planning, brand operations, supply chain organization, inventory management, and omnichannel retail, and its current business structure exhibits the characteristics of children's apparel dominating and adult casual apparel under pressure.

• Direct upstream includes apparel fabric suppliers, accessory suppliers such as zippers and buttons, footwear and accessories and children's products suppliers, OEM/ODM garment processing plants, and warehousing and logistics and e-commerce platform service providers.
• The company's annual report does not disclose the complete fabric categories, raw material cost composition such as cotton or chemical fibers, nor the sensitivity of a single raw material price to gross margin, so it is not possible to determine the specific material cost proportion on this basis.
• The company has certain capabilities in scale procurement, supplier screening, and order organization upstream, but lacks absolute pricing power over cotton, chemical fibers, dyeing and finishing, and labor costs, and is essentially still a price taker in the fabric and processing segments.
• In 2025, the top five suppliers' procurement amount was RMB 1.271 billion, accounting for 15.69% of total annual procurement. This data comes from the 2025 annual report and its database compilation; supplier concentration is not high, but the complete supplier structure should be based on the company's official annual report appendix.
• The company adopts OEM/ODM outsourced production, which can reduce its own factories and fixed asset investment, but it still needs to bear operational risks such as supplier delivery, quality control, delivery time, flexible production capacity, and inventory and discount sales.
• Downstream includes end consumers, franchisees and distributors, shopping malls and shopping centers, outlet stores, e-commerce platforms, joint-operation channels, and other retail partners.
• In 2025, the top five customers' sales amount was approximately RMB 427 million, accounting for 2.84% of operating revenue, with low customer concentration. This data comes from the 2025 annual report and Tonghuashun operating data and has been cross-verified, but the specific customer names and complete customer structure should be based on the latest annual report.
• The company directly faces a large number of consumers, franchisees, and platform channels, with relatively low dependence risk on a single customer; however, it must withstand pressures such as e-commerce platform traffic fees, promotional discounts, return rates, franchisee operating capabilities, and shopping mall rents.
• In 2025, Tmall platform transaction amount was approximately RMB 4.982 billion, with a return rate of 49.85%; Douyin platform transaction amount was approximately RMB 4.564 billion, with a return rate of 54.64%. The above transaction amounts and return rates are not equivalent to the company's recognized operating revenue and overall return rate, but they reflect that the apparel e-commerce business has characteristics of high returns, high promotions, and high operational complexity.
• The mass casual apparel market has relatively obvious product homogenization and price competition, with low consumer switching costs; children's apparel has repeat purchase demand due to size changes, festivals, and back-to-school, but it also faces seasonality, size complexity, and inventory risks.
• At the end of 2025, inventory book balance was approximately RMB 3.691 billion, inventory turnover days were 149 days according to the annual report basis, and approximately 144.7 days according to some financial databases' unified basis, with statistical basis differences. Within inventory, approximately RMB 2.561 billion was within 1 year, approximately RMB 988 million was 1–2 years, approximately RMB 97 million was 2–3 years, and approximately RMB 44 million was over 3 years, with inventory provision for price declines of approximately RMB 512 million; accounts receivable turnover days were approximately 36.9 days, significantly lower than inventory turnover days, indicating that the company's operating capital pressure mainly comes from advance stocking, seasonal inventory, and merchandise discount risk, rather than large accounts receivable.
• Both supplier and customer concentration are relatively low: in 2025, the top five suppliers accounted for 15.69% of total annual procurement, and the top five customers accounted for approximately 2.84% of operating revenue. Supplier and customer data mainly come from the 2025 annual report and database compilation; customer names and complete structure should be based on the official annual report; the company's overall bargaining relationship depends more on brand sales capability, channel efficiency, inventory management, and supply chain collaboration, rather than the concentrated control of a few customers or suppliers.

Semir Garment is a mass apparel enterprise characterized by "midstream outsourced production, downstream brand and channel operations," positioned in the downstream brand and retail operation segment of the smile curve, with its profit engine mainly being Balabala children's apparel. Future profit margin improvement depends on an increased share of children's apparel, upgrades in functional and scenario-based products, improved inventory turnover, improved direct-operated store efficiency, and the adult casual brand regaining growth, rather than relying on expanding production with its own factories.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent after deducting non-recurring items was RMB 472 million, up 59.27% year-on-year; basic earnings per share RMB 0.18, up 50.00% year-on-year; weighted average return on equity 4.15%, up 1.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 269 million, compared with a net outflow of RMB 277 million in the same period last year. As of June 30, 2026, total assets were RMB 17.251 billion, and net assets attributable to shareholders of the parent company were RMB 11.463 billion. H1 consolidated gross margin was approximately 47.8%, up approximately 1.1 percentage points year-on-year; net margin attributable to parent was approximately 7.1%, up approximately 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. Q2 2026 data is derived from the Q1 report and the semi-annual report, and is not separately disclosed by the company.

Semir Garment achieved growth in both revenue and profit in H1 2026, with net profit attributable to parent and net profit attributable to parent after deducting non-recurring items growing significantly faster than revenue, and operating cash flow turning from a net outflow in the same period last year to a net inflow, indicating improvement in profit quality and cash flow conditions. Revenue growth mainly came from children's apparel, direct-operated channels, and online channels; H1 full-system terminal retail sales grew 8.3% year-on-year, of which the Semir brand grew 4.0% and the Balabala brand grew 7.3%. In 2025, the company's revenue growth was relatively modest, and net profit attributable to parent fell 21.54% year-on-year, mainly related to increased direct-operated expansion, online traffic investment and brand promotion investment, as well as increased asset impairment losses.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

As of September 6, 2026, the Tonghuashun earnings forecast page showed that a total of 21 institutions had forecast 2026 performance over the past six months, with 20 to 21 institutions covering 2026–2028 forecasts. The above net profit and EPS are multi-institution aggregate averages and ranges, sourced from Tonghuashun iFinD excerpts, and are institutional forecasts, not official company guidance. Regarding individual institutional forecasts: Huachuang Securities on August 24, 2026 forecast 2026–2028 net profit attributable to parent of RMB 1.116 billion, RMB 1.236 billion, and RMB 1.381 billion, with EPS of approximately RMB 0.41, RMB 0.46, and RMB 0.51; Huatai Securities on August 20, 2026 forecast net profit attributable to parent of RMB 1.057 billion, RMB 1.191 billion, and RMB 1.314 billion, with EPS of approximately RMB 0.39, RMB 0.44, and RMB 0.49; Tianfeng Securities over the same period forecast net profit attributable to parent of RMB 1.101 billion, RMB 1.214 billion, and RMB 1.359 billion, with EPS of approximately RMB 0.41, RMB 0.45, and RMB 0.50. Revenue forecasts lack a unified market consensus; the table lists forecasts from individual institutions Zheshang Securities and Tianfeng Securities. Forecast assumptions include direct-operated channel expansion, children's apparel growth, gross margin improvement, and stabilization of the selling expense ratio.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

As of the most recent trading day, September 4, 2026, Semir Garment's closing price was RMB 5.84, total market capitalization approximately RMB 15.733 billion, total share capital approximately 2.694 billion shares. Corresponding PE-TTM approximately 15.03x, rolling PE after deducting non-recurring items approximately 15.45x, PB approximately 1.42x, PS approximately 1.00x, dividend yield approximately 5.14%. Based on the multi-institution earnings forecast average, the share price of RMB 5.84 corresponds to forward PE for 2026–2028 of approximately 14.2x, 13.0x, and 11.7x, respectively; because institutional EPS and net profit may use different share capital bases, the above results are approximate estimates. Lixinger data shows that as of September 4, 2026, the PE-TTM historical percentile was approximately 43.8%, with historical 20%, 50%, and 80% percentiles at approximately 13.61x, 15.28x, and 16.44x; the current valuation is roughly near the historical median, not in an extreme historical undervaluation range. Institutional target prices are mainly concentrated in the range of RMB 5.70–RMB 6.63, with Huachuang Securities' target price of RMB 7.46 significantly higher than most institutions. Valuation and target prices have timing differences; the current valuation is calculated based on the closing price of September 4, 2026, and does not use intraday data from September 7, 2026; earnings forecasts are sell-side institutional forecasts, not company performance commitments, and whether full-year performance can be realized still depends on H2 consumer demand, franchise channel recovery, store adjustments, and changes in the selling expense ratio.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Disclosure of the 2026 Semi-Annual Report (Evening of 2026-08-17)

The company disclosed its 2026 semi-annual report (as of 2026-06-30) on the evening of 2026-08-17. Key data: operating revenue RMB 6.722 billion (RMB 6,722,204,763.83), up 9.32% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent RMB 479 million (RMB 479,287,414.80), up 47.45% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent after deducting non-recurring items RMB 472 million (RMB 471,659,409.76), up 59.27% year-on-year; basic/diluted EPS RMB 0.18 per share; weighted average ROE 4.15%; net cash flow from operating activities RMB 269 million (RMB 268,546,776.94), compared with RMB -277 million in the same period last year, turning from negative to positive; period-end total assets RMB 17.251 billion (down 7.52% from the end of last year); net assets attributable to parent RMB 11.463 billion (up 0.63% from the end of last year). By business: children's apparel RMB 4.827 billion (+11.92%, accounting for 71.81%); casual apparel RMB 1.782 billion (+3.43%, accounting for 26.51%); other RMB 112 million (+0.16%). By channel: online RMB 3.044 billion (+13.10%); direct-operated RMB 1.169 billion (+23.32%); franchise RMB 2.349 billion (+0.68%). Gross margin: overall 47.78% (+0.99pct); casual apparel 45.66% (+2.44pct); children's apparel 48.56% (+0.35pct). Stores: as of 2026-06-30, a total of 7,617 nationwide (direct-operated 1,027/franchise 6,563/joint-operation 27), a net decrease of 314 from the beginning of the year (direct-operated -1, franchise -309, joint-operation -4). Asset impairment losses RMB 258 million (RMB 186 million in the same period last year), mainly due to increased provisions for price declines on older inventory; inventory book value RMB 2.832 billion (beginning of period RMB 3.178 billion), inventory provision for price declines increased from RMB 512 million at the beginning of the period to RMB 538 million. Financial expenses RMB -139 million (RMB -14 million in the same period last year), due to time deposit interest income increasing from RMB 54 million to RMB 172 million. Sources: Securities Star, East Money/Southern Finance, Securities Times/People's Finance, China Fund News.

4.2 2026 Interim Profit Distribution Plan: Proposed Cash Dividend of RMB 1.50 per 10 Shares (Tax Inclusive)

Interim distribution plan: based on the share capital on the equity registration date, a cash dividend of RMB 1.50 per 10 shares (tax inclusive), no bonus shares, no capitalization of reserves; expected cash dividend of approximately RMB 404 million, accounting for approximately 84% of H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent (Galaxy Securities basis interim dividend payout ratio 83.3%, company basis 84.32%). Sources: JRJ, China Galaxy Securities research report dated 2026-08-20. Note: East Money announcement metadata separately shows the dividend was announced on 2026-08-27 (labeled as "2026 annual report dividend"), with equity registration date 2026-09-02 and ex-dividend/ex-rights date 2026-09-03; this label appears to be a metadata labeling error (the timing is more like the implementation arrangement for the 2026 interim dividend). For the specific dividend nature, amount, and equity registration date, it is recommended to refer to the original announcement on Cninfo, and this is for reference only.

4.3 Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit (No. 2026-27) and Announcement of Resolutions of the Sixth Meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors (No. 2026-26) (Disclosed 2026-08-28)

The Board of Directors held the sixth meeting of the seventh board on 2026-08-26 (all 10 directors attended, chaired by Chairman Qiu Jianqiang). Hu Xiangzhou resigned from the position of company director, and after departure no longer holds any position; he does not hold company shares, but holds 756,330 granted but unexercised stock options. Chen Xinsheng resigned from the position of Chief Financial Officer, but remains a company director and deputy general manager, responsible for the overall work of the Asics Kids children's sports brand, and also overseeing investment and M&A business. Chen Weiwei was appointed as Chief Financial Officer (born 1979, formerly senior director of the company's financial center and head of audit), with a term until the expiration of the seventh board of directors; she holds 126,060 granted but unexercised options. Han Dan was appointed as head of audit, also holding 126,060 options. The board currently has 10 members (including 4 independent directors, namely Wu Dongming, Zhou Yingyan, Cai Liling, Li Lifeng, etc., who attended by video); the director resignation did not result in falling below the statutory minimum, and a by-election will be held as soon as possible. Sources: Securities Daily, China Financial Information Network, East Money, China Securities Journal, multiple sources consistent.

4.4 Equity Pledge Status (as of 2026-08-28)

The same-day announcement metadata separately disclosed: equity pledge as of 2026-08-28, total pledge ratio 5.28%, total pledged shares 142 million, total pledge transactions 5. Source: East Money announcement page metadata.

4.5 Buyback and Shareholding Increase: Company Basis is "None at Present," and There is One Untrustworthy Buyback Data Point

(A) Company basis: no buyback plan, no shareholder shareholding increase plan received (repeated responses multiple times). 2025-09-15 Interactive Easy: as of now no buyback plan; 2025-11-07/2025-11-11 Interactive Easy and Panorama Roadshow: as of now no buyback plan; 2025-12-15: as of now no shareholder shareholding increase plan received; 2026-06-30 18:01:40 again replied "As of now, the company has no buyback plan. The company's designated information disclosure media is Cninfo." The most recent buyback announcement on Lixing's "Semir Garment Historical Buyback Announcement List" page is 2021-07-30, with no new buyback announcements since, consistent with the "no buyback plan" statement. (B) One obviously inconsistent "buyback" data point, judged untrustworthy: a search found an Interactive Easy Q&A (2026-08-19) labeled 002563 stating "As of July 31, 2026, the company through the buyback special account cumulatively repurchased 479,400 shares via centralized bidding, accounting for 0.34% of total share capital, with a high of RMB 24.90 per share and a low of RMB 21.17 per share, total transaction amount RMB 11.274 million." Judged untrustworthy/likely misattributed, reasons: (1) the price of RMB 21–25 is seriously inconsistent with Semir's share price magnitude (approximately RMB 5.88); (2) 479,400 shares/2.694 billion shares = 0.018%, contradicting the text's own statement of 0.34%; (3) directly conflicts with the same company's clear "no buyback plan" on 2026-06-30; (4) the URL is a generic Cninfo Interactive Easy page, which may have been incorrectly attached to this stock by the search tool. Recommendation: do not trust this item; if mentioned in the report, it must be labeled "suspected information from another company, unverified."

4.6 Share Price Reference (for judging the authenticity of the above buyback data, not the focus of this study)

Sina Finance page dated 2026-08-28 showed Semir Garment at RMB 5.880 (+0.01, +0.17%). Lixing page showed share price RMB 5.35 (+0.56%), market capitalization RMB 14.413 billion, PE 15.68, PB 1.30, dividend yield 9.35% (static 6.54%); the quotes on this page are mixed with labels such as "annual report as of 2026-03-31," and the date basis is unclear; for magnitude reference only.

4.7 Strategy, Capital Operations, and Overseas Expansion Clues (Including Brokerage Research Basis)

Strategic framework: "dual main brands, dual potential brands, globalization." Potential brands include mini bala, PumaKids, and AsicsKids, referred to by brokerages as new growth points (Huatai Securities on 2026-08-21 expected "other brands 26H1 terminal retail sales yoy +92%"). Investment and M&A: the personnel announcement clearly states that Chen Xinsheng (director, deputy general manager) also oversees investment and M&A business, which can serve as a signal to watch for subsequent M&A actions (as of 2026-08-28, no specific M&A target-related announcements have been seen). Overseas expansion: Balabala has stores in approximately 20 countries and regions including Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and opened its first European store in Italy (Galaxy Securities research report view dated 2026-08-20, not the original company announcement text). The above overseas store count and other brand terminal retail sales growth rate both come from a single brokerage research report (Huatai/Galaxy), and are forecasts/estimates rather than company disclosures; it is recommended to label them as brokerage basis.

4.8 Industry and Macro Background (Supporting Recent Performance Announcements)

National Bureau of Statistics: In H1 2026, domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased 6.7% year-on-year, with moderate industry recovery and obvious corporate divergence (cited from JRJ). Media observations (Viewpoint Network, Beijing Business Today, Xinhua Net reprint): the company's "profit growth relies on expenses and gross margin, rather than main business volume growth," and the trend of children's apparel dominating has become entrenched—children's apparel revenue share rose from 66.62% in 2021 to 71.57% in 2025, while casual apparel share fell from 32.6% to 26.87%. Sources: JRJ, Xinhua Net.

4.9 Content Not Retrieved and Uncertainty Notes

Clearly not retrieved: no 002563 2026 semi-annual performance forecast/pre-increase announcement was retrieved (the company appears to have directly disclosed the formal semi-annual report without going through the forecast process)—this conclusion is based on existing searches, not official confirmation; no formal announcements of new share buyback plans, shareholder shareholding increase plans, or major asset restructuring/M&A targets within 2026 were retrieved; a complete "002563 latest announcement item-by-item list" was not obtained (the announcement list pages of East Money/Cninfo are mostly JS-rendered or search misses), and the personnel announcements (No. 2026-26/27) are the latest announcement numbers that can be confirmed this time. If the latest announcements after the end of August (such as September) are needed, it is recommended to directly search and supplement by code on Cninfo http://www.cninfo.com.cn. Uncertainties: 1) Time basis—the latest facts in this summary are as of 2026-08-28 (announcement disclosure date), with share price reference values as of the same day or later, and the quote page has date labeling confusion issues; 2) Dividend registration date—the "equity registration date 2026-09-02/ex-dividend ex-rights date 2026-09-03" and its "2026 annual report dividend" label given by East Money metadata are contradictory and have not been verified against the original announcement; 3) Buyback data conflict—the 2026-08-19 Q&A stating "cumulative buyback of 479,400 shares" is self-contradictory and the price magnitude does not match, judged untrustworthy/suspected information from another company; 4) Institutional views vs. announcements—overseas store count (approximately 20 countries), other brand terminal retail sales growth rate (+92%), etc. all come from a single brokerage research report (Huatai/Galaxy), and are forecasts/estimates rather than company disclosures; it is recommended to label them as brokerage basis; 5) Total share capital/market capitalization basis—different sources (China Finance Online 2.694 billion shares, etnet 2,694,090,160 shares, Lixing 2.694 billion shares) are basically consistent, but the Lixing page's market capitalization of RMB 14.413 billion has mixed dates in its correspondence with the share price of RMB 5.35 and share capital, for magnitude reference only.

4.10 Target Confirmation and Company Basic Information

Code 002563 = Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd., English abbreviation SEMIR GARMENT, listing venue Shenzhen Stock Exchange (Main Board), listed 2011-03-11, registered location Wenzhou, Zhejiang, office location Minhang, Shanghai. Main business: a brand apparel group featuring "virtual operation," with two major brand clusters—adult casual apparel Semir + children's apparel Balabala; all products are outsourced production (OEM/ODM). Total share capital approximately 2.694 billion shares (China Finance Online registered capital RMB 2,694,090,200; etnet total share capital 2,694,090,160 shares, data date 30/06/2025). Actual controllers are Qiu Guanghe, Zhou Pingfan, Qiu Jianqiang, Qiu Yanfang, Dai Zhiyue (natural persons). Note on "current time point": the latest announcement date returned by this search is 2026-08-28, and the latest periodic report is the 2026 semi-annual report (disclosed on the evening of 2026-08-17), so "recent" refers to the August 2026 window, with a lookback to announcements/Interactive Easy Q&As within the past year. Data sources: 2025 annual report summary, China Finance Online company profile, etnet.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Semir Garment's closing price was RMB 5.61, having fallen below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and slightly below the Bollinger lower band of RMB 5.65 estimated based on the most recent 20 days' unadjusted closing prices, with a weak short-term technical pattern. RSI6 at approximately 47 has not yet entered the traditional oversold zone; the MACD histogram as of September 7 was approximately -0.01, showing weak momentum but no obvious accelerated decline. Recent turnover and turnover rate are at relatively stable levels, and the share price decline was not accompanied by significant volume expansion; fund flow shows periodic inflows, but consecutive net outflows appeared in the most recent two trading days. In the short term, focus on the volume-price performance in the RMB 5.55 to RMB 5.65 support zone and the RMB 5.80 to RMB 5.90 moving average resistance zone.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, For Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario deduction based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, public historical quotes, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute a deterministic prediction of future share prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high subjective heuristic weight, approximately 50% to 60%; not a statistical probability): may trade in the RMB 5.55 to RMB 5.85 range. Trigger conditions are absorption near RMB 5.55 to RMB 5.65, turnover maintained at approximately RMB 60 million to RMB 100 million, and no obvious weakening in the apparel and home textile sector and the broader market. Under this scenario, the share price may fluctuate repeatedly around RMB 5.60 to RMB 5.80, but moving average resistance remains at RMB 5.80 to RMB 5.90.
• Weaker downside (medium subjective heuristic weight, approximately 30%; not a statistical probability): may trade in the RMB 5.40 to RMB 5.60 range. Trigger conditions are a volume-expanded break below RMB 5.55, with single-day turnover significantly above the recent average, consecutive net outflows of main force funds, or synchronized weakening in the apparel and home textile sector. If RMB 5.40 to RMB 5.50 also fails to form support, it may further test around RMB 5.20.
• Rebound strengthening (relatively low subjective heuristic weight, approximately 10% to 20%; not a statistical probability): may trade in the RMB 5.85 to RMB 6.15 range. Trigger conditions are reclaiming the RMB 5.80 to RMB 5.90 moving average resistance zone, and the appearance of single-day turnover above RMB 120 million, consecutive volume expansion, or synchronized strengthening in the industry sector. If it further breaks through RMB 6.00, the rebound may extend to RMB 6.10 to RMB 6.15; the area around RMB 6.28 is a relatively obvious recent prior high resistance.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, the average turnover over the most recent 5 trading days was approximately RMB 72.40 million, with an average turnover rate of approximately 0.57%; the average turnover over the most recent 10 trading days was approximately RMB 89.20 million, with an average turnover rate of approximately 0.70%. On September 11, turnover was approximately RMB 81.47 million, with a turnover rate of 0.66%, within the recent normal range. Regarding shareholder structure, as of June 30, 2026, the total number of shareholders was approximately 31,900; the top ten tradable shareholders collectively held approximately 73.59% to 74.22% of tradable shares. The top ten tradable shareholder list is Q1 report data as of March 31, 2026, mainly composed of the founder family, related enterprises, and natural person shareholders, with no typical institutional investors such as public funds, social security, or insurance entering the top ten tradable shareholder list; Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is a nominal shareholding entity for Stock Connect, and cannot be simply equated with a single institution. The above shareholder structure is already some time from the latest closing date and may have changed during the period. Higher concentration may mean relatively reduced market tradable chips, and when trading volume is low, price fluctuations and order book slippage may increase, but no short-term buying necessarily strengthening can be inferred from this.

If single-day turnover reaches above RMB 120 million and is maintained for at least two consecutive trading days, while the share price reclaims the RMB 5.80 to RMB 5.90 range, this can serve as an observation signal of short-term capital re-strengthening and breakout validity; if turnover continues below RMB 60 million and the share price breaks below RMB 5.55, it indicates that liquidity absorption may further weaken.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operating Instructions)

• Watch whether the RMB 5.55 to RMB 5.65 support zone shows stabilization on shrinking volume; the above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.
• Watch whether the RMB 5.80 to RMB 5.90 moving average resistance zone can be broken through with increased turnover; the above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.
• Watch whether turnover can reach above RMB 120 million for two consecutive trading days, as a confirmation reference for volume-price coordination; the above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.
• Watch whether main force funds shift from periodic outflows to consecutive net inflows, but do not equate single-day fund flow with actual institutional holdings changes; the above are observation ideas, not operating instructions.

The above scenario deduction is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices and technical indicator estimates. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of future actual trends, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

Semir Garment is simultaneously in two competitive markets: mass casual apparel and children's apparel. In the mass casual apparel field, the company faces numerous brands, product homogenization, and price competition pressure; in the children's apparel field, it has advantages in the Balabala brand, products, channels, and consumer mindshare, but still faces competition from sports brands, international brands, and comprehensive apparel brands in functional fabrics, sports, and all-scenario products.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Competitive factors in the mass casual apparel market include product update speed and fashionability, terminal prices and promotional intensity, store locations and shopping center resources, online traffic acquisition costs, inventory control, and supply chain response speed.
• The Semir brand has high awareness and a channel foundation in the domestic mass casual apparel market, but the adult casual business is under growth pressure, facing competition from Uniqlo, HLA, Peacebird, Li-Ning, and internet brands.
• Children's apparel has certain consumption resilience, and size changes, festivals, and back-to-school demand brought by children's growth are conducive to repeat purchases; however, the industry also has obvious seasonality, size complexity, and inventory risk.
• The company's annual report states that Balabala has ranked first in domestic market share for many consecutive years, but the 2025 annual report does not provide a directly verifiable latest national market share percentage. The 7.1% share in public materials mainly comes from Euromonitor or industry research materials around 2021, and cannot be directly used as the latest 2025 market share.
• Competition in children's apparel is expanding from traditional children's apparel brands to sports brands, international brands, and comprehensive apparel brands, with functional fabrics, campus sports, sports apparel, and children's all-scenario products becoming important competitive directions.
• Semir's core competitiveness is mainly reflected in Balabala brand equity, full-category children's coverage, online and offline omnichannel network, OEM/ODM supplier system, merchandise planning, design and R&D, and inventory management capabilities.
• As of the end of 2025, the company had entered and signed cooperation in more than 20 countries and regions through Balabala, but 2025 mainland China overseas revenue was only RMB 127 million, accounting for 0.84% of operating revenue; overseas business is currently closer to an incremental business rather than a core revenue source determining the company's fundamentals.

6.3 Main Competitors

Semir Garment's comparability with HLA and Peacebird is mainly in mass consumption, brand operations, retail channels, and inventory management; its comparability with Annil and Jiaman Garment is mainly in children's apparel; its competition with ANTA Kids and Li-Ning Kids, Xtep Kids, 361° Kids, Nike Kids, and Adidas Kids is concentrated in sports children's apparel and functional children's apparel. Because the brand structures, channel models, and business disclosure bases of these companies differ greatly, the above companies are suitable for competitive position comparison, but not for horizontal comparison of profitability and valuation without adjustment.

7. Risk Warnings

• Children's apparel revenue share continued to rise to 71.81% in H1 2026, and the company's growth is highly dependent on Balabala; if children's apparel growth slows and competition from sports brands and international brands in functional children's apparel and sports children's apparel intensifies, overall revenue and profit elasticity may be affected.
• Adult casual apparel remains a structural weakness. In 2025, Semir brand-related casual apparel revenue was RMB 4.055 billion, down 3.22% year-on-year. Although casual apparel revenue grew 3.43% year-on-year in H1 2026, the foundation for business recovery still needs verification, and the Semir brand has not yet formed a clear sustained growth trend.
• Inventory and old product impairment may continue to pressure profit. At the end of 2025, inventory book balance was approximately RMB 3.691 billion, with inventory provision for price declines of approximately RMB 512 million; in H1 2026, inventory book value fell to RMB 2.832 billion, but asset impairment losses rose to RMB 258 million. If discount sales or inventory structure deteriorate, gross margin and net profit may come under pressure.
• The company adopts OEM/ODM fully outsourced production, lacks its own production bases, and must bear supplier delivery, quality, delivery time, and flexible production capacity risks; at the same time, it lacks absolute pricing power over fabrics, dyeing and finishing, and labor costs, and cost changes may affect gross margin.
• Online channels have relatively high returns and operational complexity. In 2025, Tmall platform return rate was approximately 49.85%, and Douyin platform return rate was approximately 54.64%. The relevant data is not equivalent to the company's overall return rate, but reflects that the online business may face pressures such as high returns, platform traffic fees, promotional discounts, and declining traffic investment efficiency.
• Direct-operated and store adjustments may bring expenses and operating fluctuations. In 2025, the company's net profit decline was significantly larger than the revenue decline due to increased direct-operated expansion, brand building, and operating investment; in H1 2026, stores decreased by a net 314 from the beginning of the year. If store optimization fails to simultaneously improve per-store efficiency, selling expenses and asset impairment pressure may continue.
• Franchise channel recovery is relatively limited. In H1 2026, franchise revenue grew only 0.68% year-on-year, and franchise stores decreased by 309 from the beginning of the year; if franchisee operating capabilities, store opening willingness, or inventory absorption capacity are insufficient, it may affect the company's channel scale and terminal sales growth.
• The company has recently experienced changes in directors and senior management: former Chief Financial Officer Chen Xinsheng remains a director and deputy general manager and is responsible for the Asics Kids children's sports brand and investment and M&A business, while the company has newly appointed a Chief Financial Officer and head of audit. Management adjustments, potential M&A, and new brand expansion may bring execution, integration, and expense investment risks; as of existing data, no specific M&A target has been disclosed.
• The share price is in a weak short-term technical pattern. The September 11, 2026 closing price of RMB 5.61 is below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and recent fund flows have shown consecutive net outflows. If the RMB 5.55 to RMB 5.65 support zone is lost and accompanied by volume expansion, market volatility may increase; at the same time, the top ten tradable shareholders have relatively high holding concentration and recent turnover rate is low, which may amplify liquidity and price fluctuations.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Semir Garment's core growth logic lies in the scale, brand, and channel advantages of Balabala children's apparel, as well as efficiency improvement in direct-operated and online channels and gross margin recovery. In H1 2026, children's apparel revenue growth, consolidated gross margin, and operating cash flow were all relatively good. If children's apparel growth, adult casual stabilization, and inventory management improvement can continue, profit growth is expected to continue to exceed revenue growth; mini bala, PumaKids, AsicsKids, and overseas business may constitute supplementary growth sources, but the overseas revenue share is currently still low and is not yet a core factor determining the company's fundamentals.

Whether the company's subsequent performance can continue to improve depends on whether profit recovery comes from improved main business operating quality, rather than simply relying on expense changes, interest income, or periodic impairment fluctuations. Key areas to watch include store efficiency after direct-operated expansion, franchise channel recovery, online return and traffic investment costs, adult casual brand growth, and inventory turnover and old product price decline pressure. The increase in inventory impairment losses and the net decrease in store count in H1 2026 indicate that channel and inventory adjustments have not yet fully ended.

In terms of valuation, the current share price corresponds to a rolling valuation near the historical median. Institutional forecasts show that forward PE may decline with profit growth in the future, but the forecasts have a wide range and are affected by H2 consumer demand, selling expense ratio, franchise channels, and inventory handling. Technically, RMB 5.55 to RMB 5.65 is the recent support observation zone, and RMB 5.80 to RMB 5.90 is the moving average and trading density zone resistance. Whether volume-price conditions can improve subsequently will affect the market's confirmation of the sustainability of fundamental recovery.

Data Sources

• Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report Full Text
• Semir Garment (002563)_Company Announcements_Semir Garment: 2025 Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Semir Garment (002563) Financial Indicators_Sina Finance_Sina
• Semir Garment (002563) Historical PE, Historical PB, Historical Dividend Yield, News, Financial Reports, Research Reports, Data - Licaidashiye
• Children's Apparel More Resilient, Casual Apparel Still Awaiting Recovery - Macro Research Report _ Data Center _ East Money
• 2026 Q1 Apparel Industry Listed Company Operations Analysis_China National Garment Association
• Semir Garment (002563)_Company Announcements_Semir Garment: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Summary Sina Finance_Sina
• Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. 2026 Semi-Annual Report Full Text
• Semir Garment (002563)_Company Announcements_Semir Garment: 2026 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina
• Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. 2026 Q1 Report
• Semir Garment (002563)_Company Announcements_Semir Garment: August 18, 2026 Investor Relations Activity Record Sina Finance_Sina
• Semir Garment (002563) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• Semir Garment (002563) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services Network
• Semir Garment 2026 Interim Report Review: 26H1 Profit High Growth, High Dividend Demonstrates Confidence - Huachuang Securities | Discover Reports
• Semir Garment (002563): Direct-Operated Strong Growth, Active Investment to Build for the Future__Sina Finance_Sina
• Semir Garment (002563): Retail Steady with Upside, Adheres to High Dividends__Sina Finance_Sina
• Institutional Ratings | 6 Institutions Update Semir Garment Rating
• Guosen Securities-Semir Garment (002563) 2025 Revenue Growth 3%, Dividend Payout Ratio Over 90%-260402.pdf
• Semir Garment (002563) Stock Historical Data: Historical Quotes, Prices, Trend Charts_Investing.com
• Semir Garment (002563) PE|Valuation|Fundamentals - Lixinger
• Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report Summary
• Semir Garment (002563) 2025 Management Discussion and Analysis - Semir Garment (002563) 2025 Management Discussion and Analysis
• Semir Garment: 2025 Annual Report Summary_Jiufang Zhitou - Global Index
• SZ.002563 Semir Garment SEMIR GARMENT - A-share Real-time Quote RT Quote - Company Information
• China Securities Journal - Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. - Securities Code: 002563 Securities Abbreviation: Semir Garment Announcement No.: 2025-04
• Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report Summary - 2025
• Semir Garment: 2025 Annual Report Summary _ Semir Garment (002563) _ Announcement Text - Semir Garment: 2025 Annual Report Summary View PDF Original
• Semir Garment (002563)_Company Profile_China Finance Online - | Semir Garment (002563) Company Profile
• Semir Garment: 2024 Board of Directors Work Report _ Semir Garment (002563) _ Announcement Text - Semir Garment: 2024 Board of Directors Work Report View PDF Original
• China Securities Journal - Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. - | Page B033: Information Disclosure | Previous Next
• Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit - Manuscript Search
• Semir Garment: Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit - Home >
• China Securities Journal - Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd.<BR/>Announcement of Resolutions of the Sixth Meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors - | Page B018: Information Disclosure | Previous Next
• Semir Garment: Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit _ Semir Garment (002563) _ Announcement Text - Semir Garment: Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit View PDF Original
• Semir Garment: Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit - Securities Star - Semir Garment: Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit
• Semir Garment: Content Summary of Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit
• Semir Garment: Announcement of Resolutions of the Sixth Meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors _ Semir Garment (002563) _ Announcement Text - Semir Garment: Announcement of Resolutions of the Sixth Meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors View PDF Original
• Semir Garment: Content Summary of Announcement on Resignation of Directors and Senior Management, Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Audit-Securities Star
• Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. Announcement of Resolutions of the Sixth Meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors - Quotes
• Semir Garment: Announcement of Resolutions of the Sixth Meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors
• Semir Garment (002563) Secretary Q&A Related to No Buyback Plan_Securities Star
• China Stock Investor Relations Platform Interactive Q&A - Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. - November 7, 2025 - Tonghuashun
• Semir Garment (002563) Answers Investors-Securities Star
• Hello, what is the company's plan for the Year of the Horse? Is market value management or shareholding increase being considered_Semir Garment (002563) Investor Relations Interactive Platform-Panorama Roadshow
• Q&A
• Semir Garment (002563)_Company Announcements_Semir Garment: 2022 Semi-Annual Report Sina Finance_Sina - According to the resolution of the 10th meeting of the fourth board of directors on April 24, 2018 and the amended articles of association, the company repurchased and cancelled 3,840,240 restricted shares corresponding to the third assessment period of the first restricted stock incentive plan and some granted but not yet unlocked restricted shares, applied to reduce registered capital by RMB 3.84024 million, after change registered...
• Will the company take out loans to increase its shareholding in the company and signal future confidence to the market?...-Semir Garment Interactive Platform-Tetegu
• Semir Garment (002563) Secretary Q&A Related to Shareholder Shareholding Increase Plan_Securities Star