Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. (Dongpeng Holdings) (003012)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Building & Sanitary Ceramics (Building Ceramics) Manufacturing | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Market and technical data as of the close on September 11, 2026; the research notes could not confirm the specific trading dates corresponding to the 52-week high and low, and some market data is subject to platform caching and definitional differences, with the exchange and brokerage terminals to be taken as final.

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

I. Core Summary

The most decision-relevant fact is that Dongpeng Holdings' performance in the first half of 2026 came under clear pressure: operating revenue of RMB 2.417 billion, down 17.62% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent of RMB 28.2625 million, down 87.07% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent after deducting non-recurring items of RMB 15.3485 million, down 92.34% year-on-year; gross margin fell to 26.18%; and net cash flow from operating activities fell 54.41% year-on-year to RMB 199 million. The company is currently still in a phase of simultaneous weakening of revenue, profit, and earnings quality, and an earnings inflection point has not yet been confirmed by financial data.

The company's main business is primarily ceramic tiles, sintered stone, and sanitary ware. In 2025, ceramic tile revenue accounted for 84.32% and distribution revenue accounted for 60.85%, and the company is seeking growth through its "1+N" multi-category strategy, integrated bathroom, overseas business, and channel upgrades. In the first half of 2026, ceramic tile revenue fell 18.62% year-on-year and sanitary ware revenue fell 13.78% year-on-year, while overseas revenue grew 27.03% year-on-year, the only segment by region to achieve positive growth; the Beike integrated renovation tender, store upgrades, green manufacturing, and 5A product certification constitute medium- to long-term operational levers.

Earnings forecast divergence has widened significantly. East Money and Chaguwang still expect 2026 net profit attributable to parent of approximately RMB 382 million to RMB 385 million, while CICC on September 1, 2026, lowered its 2026 earnings forecast to RMB 164 million and its 2027 forecast to RMB 261 million, indicating that the market is still repricing the pace of recovery. As of September 11, 2026, the company's share price was RMB 4.57, with a PB of approximately 0.72x and a dividend yield of approximately 5.2% to 5.3%, but the TTM P/E of approximately 32.7x is mainly affected by the low earnings denominator caused by profit contraction and cannot simply be viewed as undervaluation.

II. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Core positioning (2025 annual report basis): A leading domestic professional manufacturer of ceramic tiles/sintered stone and sanitary ware products and one of the industry's top brands, with business covering ceramic tiles, sintered stone, integrated bathrooms, integrated wall panels, auxiliary materials, and ecological new materials, plus "installation-to-home" services, positioned as a "green space integrated solutions service provider," with a "1+N" strategy (ceramic tiles/sintered stone as the core + multi-category synergy)
• Revenue structure (FY2025, as of 2025-12-31): Ceramic tiles RMB 5.111 billion, accounting for 84.32%, gross margin 31.23%; sanitary ware RMB 793 million, accounting for 13.08%, gross margin 21.32%; other RMB 158 million, accounting for 2.60%, gross margin 33.35%
• By product (2025): Glazed tiles RMB 5.055 billion (83.39%, gross margin 31.41%); sanitary ceramics RMB 425 million (7.01%); bathroom products RMB 368 million (6.07%); unglazed tiles only RMB 56.3271 million (0.93%). The share of unglazed tiles fell from 3.73% (RMB 290 million) in 2023 to 0.93%, with the product mix clearly concentrating toward glazed tiles (polished glazed tiles/rustic tiles/ceramic sheets)
• By sales model (2025): Distribution RMB 3.689 billion (60.85%, gross margin 30.69%); direct sales RMB 2.281 billion (37.63%, gross margin 28.40%). The 2025 audit report breakdown by customer type: distributors RMB 3.689 billion, direct sales RMB 2.281 billion, engineering RMB 1.590 billion, OEM/home decoration/direct retail RMB 692 million (prior-year comparative: RMB 3.975/2.410/1.857/553 million, respectively)
• By region (2025): East China RMB 1.796 billion (29.64%), South China RMB 1.676 billion (27.64%), North China RMB 751 million (12.40%), Central China RMB 673 million (11.10%), Southwest RMB 474 million (7.82%), Northwest RMB 402 million (6.64%), overseas RMB 150 million (2.48%, gross margin 34.20%), Northeast RMB 138 million (2.28%); overseas revenue is small in absolute terms but has a higher gross margin than domestic
• Brand matrix: Main brand Dongpeng; high-end sintered stone IW; Litex (acquired, the 2025 annual report mentioned "acquisition of high-end sintered stone brand Litex"); Italian home furnishing brand platform dpicasa; German high-end sanitary ware brand innoci
• Channels and network: Eight major production bases nationwide, more than 7,000 sales terminals; products sold to more than 100 countries and regions, with international trademark registration completed in nearly 60 countries/regions, and more than 300 brand showrooms and distribution outlets in Europe, the Americas, and Southeast Asia. Under the 2024 basis, Dongpeng ceramic tile retail stores increased by a net 188 stores for the full year; in 2025, "more than 500 stores were newly built and refurbished/upgraded"; no latest store count was retrieved for 2026
• Technology/qualifications: By the end of 2025, cumulatively obtained 2,548 patents of various types, with 1,322 currently valid patents (including 445 invention patents); cumulatively participated in drafting 147 national and industry standards related to ceramic tiles and sanitary ware; recognized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as the only "green supply chain management enterprise" in the building ceramics industry; Qingyuan, Fengcheng, Chongqing, Jiangxi, and Hunan bases were rated as national-level green factories; Wind ESG AA rating in the building products sector; among the industry's first batch to pass the highest-level 5A certification under the new national standard for ceramic tiles, claiming to be the only company in the industry to achieve 5A certification in both ceramic tiles and sanitary ware categories
• Production capacity/output (weak data): 2022 ceramic tile output 108 million sqm, sales volume 133 million sqm (sales > output, presumably including outsourcing/OEM procurement, not explained in the source; this data comes from a single media source and has not been cross-verified). IPO fundraising plan (2020): add 3.15 million sqm/year of new environmentally friendly ecological slate, expand 4 ceramic production lines, Phase II expansion in Lixian, 2.6 million water-saving sanitary ware units/year and 1 million hardware faucets/year, etc. (fundraising scale RMB 1.480 billion). ⚠️ This time, the latest official figures for 2024/2025 annual ceramic tile production capacity and output were not retrieved; it is recommended to verify against the "main product capacity/output/sales volume" table in the annual report before incorporating it into the report

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

III. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The latest disclosed financial report is the 2026 interim report (1H26, disclosed August 28); the Q3 report has not yet been released; the data in these notes is as of September 11, 2026 (the most recent trading day close). Additional 1H26 items: net profit attributable to parent after deducting non-recurring items RMB 15.3485 million (-92.34%), net cash flow from operating activities RMB 199 million (-54.41%), gross margin 26.18% (-4.14ppt, Stockstar basis -13.67% YoY), net margin attributable to parent 1.17% (-6.28ppt), period expense ratio 22.02% (+3.39ppt), earnings per share RMB 0.02. By business: 1H26 ceramic tile revenue RMB 2.022 billion (-18.62%, gross margin 26.85%, -4.63ppt), sanitary ware RMB 321 million (-13.78%, gross margin 18.57%, -3.84ppt), overseas revenue RMB 74.55 million (+27.03%, the only region with positive growth), South China had the largest decline (-24.79%). Additional 2025 annual report items: deducted non-recurring RMB 316 million (+5.36%), gross margin 29.99% (+0.3ppt), operating cash flow RMB 874 million, debt-to-asset ratio approximately 34%, dividend RMB 2.5 per 10 shares, total cash dividend RMB 280 million, dividend payout ratio 79.66%. Additional TTM items: deducted non-recurring net profit RMB 131 million (-56.5%), ROE (TTM) approximately 2.1%. Key background: In 1H26, national real estate development investment fell 18.0% year-on-year and completed floor area fell 23.7%, combined with the high base from the 2025 home decoration national subsidy, which are the main reasons for the dual decline in revenue/profit. Sources: Lanjinger, CICC 1H26 review, Stockstar financial report summary, company management discussion, Cfi.cn, Sohu Securities, stockanalysis.com, 2025 annual report interpretation, company announcement summaries.

1H26 revenue RMB 2.417 billion, -17.62% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent RMB 28.2625 million, -87.07% year-on-year; deducted non-recurring net profit attributable to parent RMB 15.3485 million, -92.34% year-on-year; gross margin fell 4.14ppt year-on-year to 26.18%; net margin attributable to parent only 1.17% (-6.28ppt); period expense ratio 22.02% (+3.39ppt); net cash flow from operating activities RMB 199 million, -54.41% year-on-year; earnings quality needs to be monitored (Stockstar noted that accounts receivable/latest annual report net profit attributable to parent reached 204.17%). By quarter, 1Q26 attributable to parent -RMB 50 million (-64.15%), deducted non-recurring -RMB 64 million; 2Q26 attributable to parent RMB 78 million (-68.58%), deducted non-recurring RMB 80 million (-65.97%); Q2 turned from loss to profit sequentially (seasonal), but the year-on-year decline remained large. By business, ceramic tile revenue RMB 2.022 billion (-18.62%), sanitary ware RMB 321 million (-13.78%), and overseas revenue RMB 74.55 million (+27.03%) was the only region with positive growth. In the 2025 annual report, revenue was RMB 6.062 billion (-6.30%) and net profit attributable to parent was RMB 352 million (+7.15%), but the 2024 and 2023 revenue and profit bases were quite volatile (2024 attributable to parent -54.41%, 2023 attributable to parent +256.63%); TTM revenue RMB 5.545 billion (-12.1%), net profit RMB 162 million (-52.0%), deducted non-recurring net profit RMB 131 million (-56.5%), ROE (TTM) approximately 2.1%. Overall, an earnings inflection point has not yet appeared, and CICC expects recovery to only RMB 261 million in 2027.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Sources: East Money institutional earnings forecasts (https://emweb.securities.eastmoney.com/ProfitForecast/index?code=SZ003012) and Chaguwang (http://chaguwang.cn/F10/12/003012.html, as of 2026-06-26, covering only 3 institutions); CICC 1H26 review (2026-09-01, reposted by Sina/9fzt, http://stockfinance.sina.cn/stock/go.php/paper/reportid/841605317360/index.phtml, https://vipwt1.cfi.cn/p20260901001298.html). ⚠️ Major uncertainty: East Money/Chaguwang's 2026E of approximately RMB 380 million differs by more than double from CICC's latest RMB 164 million, indicating that sell-side forecasts are still in a rapid downgrade process, and most platforms have not yet updated; when citing institutional earnings forecasts, the valuation base date must also be given, and a single "consensus" figure cannot be directly relied upon. The number of brokers is relatively small (only 2–5 covering in the past 6 months, with 2-3 providing forecasts). East Money details: Changjiang Securities (2026-05-13) 0.34/0.47/0.59; CICC (2026-05-01) 0.34/0.35/—; Guosheng Securities (2026-04-30) 0.32/0.36/0.42. Also: Tonghuashun Wencai (2026-08-28, when the share price was RMB 4.79) forecast PE: 2026E 13.73x, 2027E 12.17x, 2028E 9.48x, all based on old forecasts before the downgrade and contradicting CICC's latest basis.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of the close on 2026-09-11, the share price was RMB 4.57 (that day -2.97%, -RMB 0.14), total share capital 1.157 billion shares (tradable 1.135 billion shares), total market capitalization approximately RMB 5.287 billion (Cfi.cn basis; Sohu/East Money snapshots approximately RMB 5.29–5.57 billion, fluctuating with the share price). PE (TTM) 32.72x, PE after deducting non-recurring items 40.36x, PB 0.72x (Cfi.cn, 2026-09-11). Net assets per share RMB 6.35 (1H26), PB<1, near below-net-asset levels; dividend yield approximately 5.2–5.3% (moatmap, based on August share price, 2025 annual dividend RMB 0.25 per share). Industry comparison: The median PE of the "non-metallic mineral products" industry is 40.49x, and the median PE after deduction is 8.15x; Dongpeng's PE (TTM) is below the industry median. Overseas data source references: Simply Wall St (updated to 2026-09-02) market cap CN¥5.43b, PE (TTM) 33.6x, P/S 1.0x, dividend yield 5.2%; MoatMap shows PE (TTM) 16.4x, PB 0.70x, dividend yield 5.3%. PE bases vary widely: at the same point in time Cfi.cn PE (TTM) 32.7x, Simply Wall St 33.6x, MoatMap 16.4x; the difference is that MoatMap may use a normalized/annual basis; calculated using TTM net profit of RMB 162 million + market cap of RMB 5.29 billion, it is approximately 32–33x, consistent with Cfi.cn, and 32.7x is more reliable. ⚠️ Distortion in average target price: The average price of RMB 8.03 includes Guotai Haitong's old target price of RMB 10.32/10.56 from 2025-10-31, while CICC's latest is only RMB 5.5, so the average has weak reference significance. ⚠️ Forecast downgrade trend: CICC explicitly lowered by 58%/35%, and the industry is still in decline (1H26 completed floor area -23.7%), so there is risk of further downgrades in the next 2–3 quarters (especially the Q3 report and annual report preview); the current consensus of "approximately +8% growth in 2026E" is severely inconsistent with the actual 1H26 -87%. On valuation anchors: The current PE (TTM) of 32.7x is mainly pushed up by profit contraction (low denominator); PB 0.72x and dividend yield 5.2% are more robust valuation references; below-net-asset plus high dividend provides some downside support, but an earnings inflection point has not yet appeared (CICC expects recovery to only RMB 261 million in 2027). Data concern: In the Cfi.cn financial indicators table, "2026-06 net assets per share RMB 5.20" does not match net assets of RMB 7.352 billion/1.157 billion shares ≈ RMB 6.36, nor Stockstar's 1H26 net assets per share of RMB 6.35; that cell is judged suspicious and has not been adopted. Sources: Cfi.cn, Sohu Securities, Simply Wall St, MoatMap.

IV. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Disclosure of the 2026 Interim Report: Revenue RMB 2.417 billion, down 17.62% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent RMB 28.2625 million, down 87.07% year-on-year

The company disclosed its 2026 interim report on the evening of 2026-08-28 (published in newspapers on 8-29). Operating revenue RMB 2.417 billion (RMB 2,416,927,205.22), -17.62% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent RMB 28.2625 million (RMB 28,262,512.95), -87.07% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent after deducting non-recurring items RMB 15.3485 million, -92.34% year-on-year; net cash flow from operating activities RMB 199 million (RMB 199,202,730.17), -54.41% year-on-year; basic/diluted EPS RMB 0.02 (-89.47%); weighted ROE 0.38% (-2.52 percentage points year-on-year). Total assets at period end RMB 10.817 billion (-6.21% from the end of the prior year); net assets attributable to parent RMB 7.352 billion (-3.43%). By quarter (derived): Q1 2026 revenue RMB 809 million, net loss attributable to parent approximately RMB 49.98 million; Q2 2026 revenue RMB 1.61 billion (-17.1%), net profit attributable to parent approximately RMB 78.25 million (-68.6%), deducted non-recurring approximately RMB 79.81 million (-66.0%). No cash dividend, bonus shares, or capital reserve conversion for the half year. Company-stated reasons: deep adjustment in the building & sanitary ceramics industry, demand pressure, intensified competition in the existing market; combined with the high base formed by the "home decoration national subsidy" in the same period last year.

4.2 Provision for Credit Impairment and Asset Impairment in the 2026 Interim Period, Reducing Total Profit by RMB 68.9793 million in Aggregate

Disclosed on the same day as the interim report (2026-08-29). Provision for credit impairment losses of RMB 26.5956 million (accounts receivable RMB 24.5407 million, other receivables RMB 2.8821 million, notes receivable -RMB 0.8272 million); provision for asset impairment losses of RMB 42.3837 million (inventory RMB 36.4713 million, fixed assets RMB 5.9124 million); total reduction of 1H26 total profit by RMB 68.9793 million. This data comes from an announcement summary, a single source; the specific amounts should be verified against the original CNINFO announcement.

4.3 New Round of Share Buyback: As of 2026-09-11, Cumulatively Repurchased 11,569,900 Shares, Accounting for 1.00% of Total Share Capital

Approved at the third meeting of the sixth board of directors on 2026-06-15 and announced on 2026-06-17 (Announcement No. 2026-031): total buyback amount not less than RMB 50 million and not more than RMB 100 million, buyback price not more than RMB 7.95/share, for use in employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives. First buyback on 2026-06-18: 1.0771 million shares, accounting for 0.09% of total share capital, transaction amount RMB 5.0294 million, price range RMB 4.65–4.68. As of 2026-08-31: cumulatively repurchased 11,022,800 shares, accounting for 0.95% of total share capital, total transaction amount RMB 50,025,148, price range RMB 4.30–4.80/share (Announcement No. 2026-049). As of 2026-09-11: cumulatively repurchased 11,569,900 shares, accounting for 1.00% of total share capital (reaching the 1% disclosure threshold, Announcement No. 2026-051), lowest transaction price RMB 4.30/share (the highest price in the original text was truncated). Source of funds: own funds + special loan for buyback; on 2026-06-30, signed a "Listed Company Stock Buyback Loan Contract" with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Foshan Shiwan Sub-branch, with a loan not exceeding RMB 90 million, drawn in installments according to progress.

4.4 Completion of the Previous Round (2024 Plan) Buyback, with Conflicting Cumulative Data

Approved by the board on 2024-11-18 and announced on 2024-11-19 (No. 2024-093): total amount RMB 100–200 million. According to Marketscreener citing S&P Capital IQ: repurchased 9,627,600 shares (0.85%) from April to June 2025, spending RMB 57.9 million; cumulatively repurchased 15,666,500 shares (1.38%), spending RMB 94.14 million. Stockstar trading alerts show: this round of buyback (price cap RMB 9.08/share) expired/completed implementation on 2025-11-18, with cumulative repurchases of 17.33 million shares at an average price of RMB 6.16. The two rounds of buyback data come from different sources; the previous round's "cumulative 17.33 million shares/average price RMB 6.16" and "15,666,500 shares/1.38%" have inconsistent bases (possibly "implemented portion" and "progress at a certain stage," respectively); it is recommended to verify against the original CNINFO announcement.

4.5 Controlling Shareholder and Concerted Parties Voluntarily Committed Not to Reduce Holdings (2026-06-09, Announcement No. 2026-028)

Commitment period: from 2026-06-09 to 2027-06-08 (12 months), no reduction of holdings by any means. The committing entities collectively hold 530 million shares, accounting for 45.84% of total share capital: Ningbo Lijian 30.28% (350,379,778 shares), Foshan Huashengchang 14.00% (162,000,000 shares), Guangdong Yuhe 1.56% (18,000,000 shares).

4.6 Shareholder Reductions and Exits (Negative Signal)

Sequoia system (HSG Growth I Holdco B, Shanghai Zhede/Beijing Sequoia Kunpeng): cumulatively reduced approximately 3.6% since the simplified equity change disclosure on 2023-02-08; in September 2025 cashed out more than RMB 90 million in aggregate, with holdings falling from 6.15% to 4.69%; continued to reduce in Q4 2025, and by the end of 2025 both had exited the top ten shareholders. Hong Kong Central Clearing (northbound): 52.06 million shares (4.59%) as of 2026-03-31 → 46.65 million shares as of 2026-06-16 → 47.14 million shares (4.16%, -4.918 million shares) as of 2026-06-30. Ningbo Dongyuepeng Investment: 9.98 million shares (0.88%, -310,000 shares) as of 2026-06-16. Ningbo Kexilai: 15.97 million shares (1.41%, -2.392 million shares) as of 2026-06-16. Note: The northbound holding basis is nominal holding by "Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited," which is not entirely equivalent to active foreign capital increases or decreases, and is for reference only; the above data comes from third-party data platforms, not the original company announcements.

4.7 Top Ten Shareholders in the 2026 Interim Report (as of 2026-06-30)

Ningbo Lijian 30.28%, Foshan Huashengchang 14.00%... The top ten collectively held 775 million shares, accounting for 66.98%; total number of common shareholders 26,624 (compared with the end of Q1).

4.8 2026 Employee Stock Ownership Plan: Proposed Transfer of Not More Than 15.22 Million Shares, Transfer Price RMB 5.33/Share

Total proposed transferred shares not more than 15.22 million shares, transfer price RMB 5.33/share, proposed fundraising not more than RMB 84.7754 million; participants include directors (excluding independent directors), senior management, and core key personnel. Background: The company noted that both the 2022 and 2024 stock option incentive plans were substantially cancelled because the performance assessment targets for the exercise period were not achieved, and the market is doubtful about the feasibility of the assessment targets of its new round of incentives. Details such as the specific assessment indicators and duration of the employee stock ownership plan were not obtained in this search; it is recommended to check the original CNINFO announcement.

4.9 Policy, Industry, and Operational News

"National subsidy" high base: The company explicitly attributes part of the 1H26 performance decline to the high base formed by the national subsidy policy in the home decoration sector in the same period last year. Standards/products: The company is the first lead drafting unit of the 5A new national standard GB/T 45817-2025 "Consumer Product Quality Grading Ceramic Tiles," and was the first to mass-produce 5A textured tiles; series such as "Zhizhen" were launched. Green manufacturing: The Hunan base and Jiangxi sanitary ware base were rated "national-level green factories" (1H26); together with the Qingyuan, Fengcheng, and Chongqing bases, the core ceramic tile bases have achieved full coverage of national-level green factories; the company is a MIIT "green factory" and "green supply chain management enterprise." Channels/overseas: Dongpeng ceramic tiles won the 2026 Beike integrated renovation ceramic tile category tender; ranked first on the three industry lists on both Tmall and JD.com during "618"; international business revenue grew rapidly year-on-year (specific amount not disclosed). Industrial capital: The wholly owned subsidiary Dongpeng Investment (Hainan) Co., Ltd. invested in "Foshan Deying Xingtu Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership)," directing investment toward emerging industries, which was questioned by the media as deviating from the main business.

4.10 Other Board/Announcement/Trading Developments

2026-08-27 fourth meeting of the sixth board of directors (Announcement No. 2026-045, disclosed 2026-08-29): passed the "2026 Interim Report and Summary," "2026 Interim Provision for Credit Impairment and Asset Impairment," "Use of Some Own Funds for Cash Management," and other proposals; all 9 directors due to attend attended, with all votes 9 in favor. 2026-09-10 announcement: "Regarding Participation in the 2026 Guangdong Jurisdiction Investor Online Collective Reception Day and Jurisdiction Listed Companies..." (Cfi.cn shows this as the latest announcement). Block trades: Multiple block trades appeared intensively from September to December 2025 (e.g., 2025-12-01 a total of 7 trades, 3.115 million shares, RMB 19.78 million; 2025-10-14 a total of 15 trades, 6.298 million shares, RMB 41.57 million, etc.), mostly at discounts. Executive increase: Zhong Baomin (Director) increased holdings by approximately 7.229 million shares on 2025-09-17 (this item comes from a Stockstar trading alert; the number of shares is unusually large and the timing is early, so the basis should be verified).

V. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, Dongpeng Holdings' closing price was RMB 4.57, below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and September 11 turnover was above the 5-day average and accompanied by a -2.97% decline, leaving short-term price and momentum weak. The estimated lower Bollinger Band is approximately RMB 4.61, and the close slightly broke below it; RSI(14) at approximately 49 is in the neutral zone, while RSI6 at approximately 33 shows weak short-term momentum but not yet extreme oversold. The moving averages have not yet clearly diverged, and MACD can only confirm a "bearish" qualitative status; overall it is more appropriately described as weak consolidation and in a phase of direction selection rather than a confirmed sustained one-way decline. On the funding side, main funds had a small net outflow on September 10, while complete main fund data for September 11 is missing; recent turnover has been approximately 0.6% to 0.9%, and support strength has not yet been fully confirmed.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario projection based on data as of the close on September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor is it a single-point price forecast.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week's Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high subjective heuristic weight, approximately 50% to 60%; not a statistical probability): Observation range RMB 4.55~4.75. Trigger conditions include holding RMB 4.55~4.61, turnover remaining in the recent normal range of approximately RMB 30 million~45 million, and repeated competition around MA5 at RMB 4.71 without a sustained volume-driven break below RMB 4.55. If this holds, the price may consolidate weakly near the lower Bollinger Band, with rebounds temporarily capped at RMB 4.71~4.85.
• Weaker downside (medium subjective heuristic weight, approximately 30%; not a statistical probability): Observation range RMB 4.33~4.55. Trigger conditions include an effective close below RMB 4.55, turnover continuously expanding to approximately RMB 50 million or more with the turnover rate clearly above the recent normal range of 0.6%~0.9%, while main funds continue to flow out and risk appetite in the building materials sector or the broader market weakens simultaneously. If RMB 4.33~4.45 is also effectively broken below, the RMB 4.15~4.35 area should continue to be observed below.
• Stronger rebound (low subjective heuristic weight, approximately 10% to 20%; not a statistical probability): Observation range RMB 4.71~4.90, and in a strong case then RMB 4.87~5.01. Trigger conditions include reclaiming the RMB 4.71~4.73 moving average dense zone, single-day turnover expanding to approximately RMB 55 million or more with the turnover rate reaching approximately 1.0% or higher, while overseas market share, main fund flows, and the building materials sector improve simultaneously. Only a further volume-driven break above the upper Bollinger Band at RMB 4.85 would allow observation of a move toward the RMB 4.87~5.01 resistance zone; a low-volume rebound alone is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

③ Funding and Liquidity Background

Recent daily turnover is approximately RMB 33 million to RMB 48 million, with a 5-day average of approximately RMB 39.45 million; the turnover rate is approximately 0.6% to 0.9%, at a relatively low level. Top ten shareholder data is as of June 30, 2026, with aggregate holdings of approximately 67%, and the top three shareholders approximately 56%; during the same period, the number of shareholders increased 5.29% from March 31, 2026, indicating that tradable chip concentration declined somewhat versus Q1. The listed top ten shareholders are mainly venture capital partnerships, industrial shareholders, and natural persons; public funds do not appear on the list; Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited's approximately 4.07% holding is not equivalent to all being long-term institutional funds. Because the shareholder data is about two and a half months behind the latest market data, the structure may have changed during the period. At the trading level, a low turnover rate means order book depth and short-term funding support strength may be limited, and key support or resistance levels may see insufficient trading, pullback after spikes, or repair after breakdown.

If the share price reclaims RMB 4.71~4.73, while single-day turnover continuously expands to approximately RMB 55 million or more and the turnover rate reaches approximately 1.0% or higher, this can serve as an observation signal that short-term capital participation has clearly increased; if turnover continuously exceeds RMB 50 million during a decline and the price breaks below RMB 4.55, then the risk of continued weakness should be observed.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 4.55~4.61 area can obtain support confirmed by closing prices, and whether a break below RMB 4.55 further points to the RMB 4.33~4.45 area.
• Observe whether the RMB 4.71~4.73 moving average dense zone can be reclaimed, and watch whether the upper Bollinger Band at RMB 4.85 is effectively broken with expanded turnover.
• Track whether single-day turnover continuously reaches approximately RMB 55 million or more, whether the turnover rate reaches approximately 1.0% or higher, and whether main funds shift from net outflow to continuous net inflow.
• The above are observation ideas, not buy, sell, or hold instructions.

The above scenario projection is based on data as of the close on September 11, 2026, and calculations from historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, funding, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

VI. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

VII. Risk Warnings

• Risk of decline in real estate and completed-project demand: In the first half of 2026, national real estate development investment fell 18.0% year-on-year and completed floor area fell 23.7% year-on-year, while the company's ceramic tile revenue fell 18.62% year-on-year; if terminal home decoration and engineering demand continue to weaken, revenue recovery may be further delayed.
• Risk of continued earnings downgrades: East Money and Chaguwang forecast 2026 net profit attributable to parent of approximately RMB 382 million to RMB 385 million, while CICC's latest forecast is only RMB 164 million, a difference of more than double, and CICC has already lowered its 2026 earnings forecast by 58%; subsequent Q3 or annual report previews may still trigger further downgrades.
• Risk of pressure on gross margin and expense ratio: In the first half of 2026, the company's gross margin fell to 26.18%, down 4.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the period expense ratio rose to 22.02%; if ceramic tile and sanitary ware sales continue to decline while channel, brand, and operating investments remain rigid, the profit decline may continue to exceed the revenue decline.
• Accounts receivable and impairment risk: In the first half of 2026, the company recognized credit impairment losses on accounts receivable and other items totaling approximately RMB 26.5956 million, and additionally recognized inventory and fixed asset impairment losses of approximately RMB 42.3837 million; if terminal demand is weak, customer collections slow, or inventory digestion falls short of expectations, cash flow and profit quality may be further affected.
• Business structure concentration risk: In 2025, ceramic tile revenue accounted for 84.32% and distribution revenue accounted for 60.85%; in the first half of 2026, ceramic tiles remained the main source of revenue decline; the "1+N" multi-category synergy and sanitary ware and integrated renovation businesses have not yet shown a scale sufficient to offset the decline in the core ceramic tile business, and high core business concentration remains a source of operational volatility.
• Overseas business scale is limited and expansion still needs verification: In the first half of 2026, overseas revenue grew 27.03% year-on-year, but in 2025 overseas revenue accounted for only 2.48% of full-year revenue; overseas growth is currently not enough to significantly hedge the decline in domestic business, and the sustainability and profit contribution of international channel expansion still need to be verified by subsequent financial data.
• Risk of weakening share price and technicals: As of the close on September 11, 2026, the share price was RMB 4.57, below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and slightly below the estimated lower Bollinger Band of RMB 4.61; if it continues to break below RMB 4.55 with expanded turnover, technical weakness may extend to the RMB 4.33 to RMB 4.45 observation area.
• Shareholder structure and liquidity change risk: As of June 30, 2026, the number of shareholders increased 5.29% from Q1, and average holdings per account declined, indicating some weakening of chip concentration; recent turnover has been approximately 0.6% to 0.9%, and daily turnover approximately RMB 33 million to RMB 48 million. Under low turnover, key price levels may see insufficient support and amplified price volatility.

VIII. Conclusion and Outlook

Dongpeng Holdings' long-term competitive foundation mainly comes from its leading brand, nationwide sales network, eight major production bases, relatively high distribution coverage, and multi-category synergy in ceramic tiles and sanitary ware. Overseas revenue growth, retail integrated renovation channel expansion, store rebuilding and upgrades, green factory layout, and product standards and patent accumulation may support revenue structure optimization and earnings recovery; in 2025, the company's net profit attributable to parent grew 7.15% year-on-year and operating cash flow reached RMB 874 million, also reflecting a certain degree of operational resilience amid industry adjustment.

The core short-term contradiction remains demand-side contraction and pressure on profitability. The decline in real estate development investment and completed floor area, the high base from the home decoration national subsidy, and existing-market competition jointly affect ceramic tile and sanitary ware sales. In the first half of 2026, the period expense ratio rose to 22.02%, and credit and asset impairment provisions reduced total profit by RMB 68.9793 million in aggregate. Against this background, subsequent focus should be on whether the revenue decline narrows, whether gross margin can recover, whether accounts receivable and inventory impairment pressure eases, and the matching between operating cash flow and net profit.

The company has implemented buybacks, the controlling shareholder and concerted parties committed not to reduce holdings during the period from June 9, 2026, to June 8, 2027, and the proposed employee stock ownership plan also reflects the intention to stabilize the core team; however, buybacks, shareholder commitments, and below-net-asset status cannot replace fundamental recovery. Technically, the share price is below MA5, MA10, and MA20, MACD is qualitatively bearish, and the September 11 decline was accompanied by turnover above the 5-day average, leaving the short term still in weak consolidation and a phase of direction selection.

Data Sources

• Today's New Stock Subscription: Dongpeng Holdings, Panda Dairy, Fanya Micropermeation - Mobile CE.cn Economic Daily WeChat CE.cn WeChat
• Dongpeng Holdings: 4.57 -2.97% -0.14 003012 Sohu Securities
• Stock Market Express: Dongpeng Holdings (003012) Main Funds Net Sold RMB 1.6459 Million on September 11 - Stockstar
• Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co Ltd (003012)
• Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co (003012) Stock Price Quote
• 003012 Stock Price | Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co. Ltd. A Stock Quote (China: Shenzhen) | MarketWatch
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012)_Stock Market, Market Home_Cfi.cn
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• Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.,Ltd. (003012) Company Information - Simply Wall St - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
• Over Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings (003012) - Investing.com
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• Dongpeng Holdings (003012)_Operating Summary_Cfi.cn
• 003012 Dongpeng Holdings
• Securities Daily Online - Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report Summary - Manuscript Search
• 003012 Dongpeng Holdings - Main Business Scope
• China Securities Journal - Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. - | Page B110: Information Disclosure | Previous Page Next Page
• China Securities Journal - Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. - Stock Code: 003012 Stock Abbreviation: Dongpeng Holdings Announcement No.: 2025-023
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012) 2025 Management Discussion and Analysis - By the end of 2025, cumulatively participated in drafting 147 national and industry standards, cumulatively obtained 2,548 patents of various types, with 1,322 currently valid patents of various types (including 445 invention patents), was rated a national intellectual property demonstration enterprise, won the China Patent Excellence Award four times, and many other honors
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012)_Operating Summary_Cfi.cn - | Dongpeng Holdings (003012) Operating Summary
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012.SZ)
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012.SZ) - Quick Quote
• Dongpeng Holdings Financial Report Summary
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012.SZ) - US Stocks
• Dongpeng (003012) Financial Report_Financial Overview_Stock Financial Indicator Analysis_Investing.com - Dongpeng Holdings (003012)
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012.SZ) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance - Skip to Navigation Skip to Main Content Skip to Right Column
• Nanyang Commercial Bank
• Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings (003012) Financial Overview - Dongpeng Holdings (003012)
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012) - Dongpeng Holdings (003012)
• Chengdu · Industry Exposure Observation | Building Materials and Home Furnishing Industry Chain Special Topic (June 2026) - Chengdu · Industry Exposure Observation | Building Materials and Home Furnishing Industry Chain Special Topic (June 2026)
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• On Capacity Expansion, Cost Reduction, Channels... Dongpeng, Monalisa, Arrow, Huida's 2023 Plans - On Capacity Expansion, Cost Reduction, Channels... Dongpeng, Monalisa, Arrow, Huida's 2023 Plans
• [Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. (003012.SZ): 5 FORCES Analysis [Apr-2026 Updated]](https://dcf-model.com/products/003012sz-porters-five-forces-analysis?pr_prod_strat=e5_desc&pr_rec_id=47abe6e6c&pr_rec_pid=8680939618453&pr_ref_pid=8676635508885&pr_seq=uniform)
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• Building Materials Industry Special Report: Dissecting Profit Margin Elasticity - At the gross margin level, in 2021-22, under high energy costs, gross margins began to decline significantly at both the sector and individual company levels; in 2021, gross margins of Diou Home, Monalisa, Huida Sanitary Ware, Dongpeng Holdings, and Arrow Home declined by -4.4/-5.2/-3.7/-2.8/-1.4pct year-on-year, respectively
• Ceramic Tile Industry Economies of Scale Analysis: Large Scale, Fewer Production Switches, Lower Costs - 17310456736
• Comparison of Raw Material Procurement Prices Between Dongpeng and Marco Polo
• Natural Gas Prices Up 60% Year-on-Year! Multiple Guangdong Ceramic Tile Producers Collectively Raise Prices by 3%~10% - 0757-82532110
• Raw Materials and Fuels Account for More Than 50% of Costs; Industry Has Already Experienced More Than 3 Rounds of Price Increases This Year Page A3: Hot Topics 20220610 Issue Taocheng Daily
• Dongpeng Holdings: 2025 Annual Report_9fzt - Building & Sanitary Ceramic Products Manufacturing Expenses 618681675.7114.58% 648569398.5514.26% 0.32%
• http://www.chaguwang.cn/neimu/003012/202304274200.html
• Dongpeng Holdings Research Report: Veteran Building Ceramics Leader, Differentiated Competition Upstart
• Dongpeng: 2022 Revenue RMB 6.93 Billion, Ceramic Tile Output 108 Million sqm, Sales Volume 133 Million sqm Page A4: Special Topic 20230505 Issue Taocheng Daily
• Dongpeng Holdings: 2025 Annual Audit Report - Stockstar - Total 6,061,932,067.74 4,243,958,591.30 6,469,491,045.17 4,548,548,818.93
• China Stock Investor Relations Platform Interactive Q&A - Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. - July 29, 2021 - Tonghuashun
• Dongpeng Holdings: Sales to the Top 5 Customers Accounted for 1.08% to 5.06% of Annual Total Sales, with a Relatively Low Share for Any Single Customer
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012) Main Business Operating Analysis Query | Chaguwang - gubit.cn - Gubite.China
• Dongpeng Holdings (003012) Main Business Operating Analysis Query | Chaguwang - chaguwang.cn - Chaguwang.China
• <table><tr><td>Comparable company</td><td>Distributor concentration</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>1.02%, 0.68%, 0.55%, 0.51%, and 0.45%, with major customer concentration relatively low
• National Business Daily - Companies - Hot Companies - Dongpeng Holdings Net Profit and Cash Flow Achieve Countercyclical Double Growth, Delivering a High-Quality Answer Sheet During Deep Industry Adjustment
• Guangdong Dongpeng Income Statement - Investing.com - Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings (003012)
• Dongpeng Holdings: 4.57 -2.97% -0.14 003012 Sohu Securities
• Guangdong Dongpeng Income Statement (003012) Net Worth - Investing.com AU - Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings (003012)
• Dongpeng Holdings: 4.81 2.12% +0.10 003012 Sohu Securities - - Recently Viewed
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• Dongpeng Holdings (003012)_Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Trend Chart_News_Stock Reviews_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Easier
• Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings (003012) Income Statement - Investing.com
• Dongpeng Holdings 1H Results Under Pressure but Operating Quality Improvement Can Be Expected
• 003012 Dongpeng Holdings