COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (COSCO Shipping Energy) (600026)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Energy Shipping and Liquid Cargo Transportation　|　Report Date: September 14, 2026　|　Market data and technical indicators are primarily as of the September 11, 2026 close; shareholder concentration data are as of June 30, 2026, and therefore have a lag of approximately two and a half months. September 12–13, 2026 fell on a weekend, so no new A-share closing prices were generated.

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

COSCO Shipping Energy’s performance improved significantly in the first half of 2026: revenue was RMB 15.146 billion, up 30.03% year on year; net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 4.545 billion, up 143.21%; and recurring net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 4.449 billion, up 150.88%. Profit growth was primarily driven by improving conditions in the international tanker market. Revenue from the LNG business was approximately RMB 1.520 billion and net profit attributable to the parent was approximately RMB 512 million during the same period. Although the LNG business continued to grow, it was not the primary source of the current round of profit acceleration. The interim report was unaudited, and tanker-market conditions are highly cyclical. The current high growth rate should not be directly extrapolated as a certain full-year or multi-year growth rate.

The company’s business structure is centered on foreign-trade oil transportation. In 2024, foreign-trade oil transportation generated revenue of RMB 14.574 billion, accounting for approximately 62.7% of revenue from principal operations, but its gross margin declined by 5 percentage points year on year to 24.6%. Domestic-trade oil transportation relied on COA contracts to lock in more than 91% of its base cargo volume, while LNG transportation achieved a gross margin of approximately 48.3%; together, these businesses partly offset fluctuations in international spot freight rates. As of the end of 2024, the company owned and controlled 159 tankers totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons, with another 12 vessels under construction. It continues to invest in VLCC, LPG and LNG fleets. Future growth will depend on freight-rate cycles, capacity deployment, execution of long-term contracts and control of capital costs.

Market valuation displays clear cyclical characteristics. As of September 11, 2026, the share price closed at RMB 20.86, with a trailing dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 12.54x, although valuation methodologies differ across platforms. Based on institutional forecasts, the prevailing expectation for 2026 net profit attributable to the parent is approximately RMB 11.0–12.2 billion, implying a forward valuation of approximately 9–10x. This low forward valuation is based on the assumption that tanker-market conditions will remain strong. Institutional forecasts do not constitute company guidance, and different institutions make different assumptions regarding freight rates, geopolitics, fleet supply and share capital.

Technically, the share price rose rapidly from mid-August before retreating after moving above RMB 21.00. It is currently slightly below the MA5 and MA10, but remains above the MA20 of approximately RMB 19.37. MACD remains above the zero axis and RSI is approximately 54.19, indicating that the medium-term uptrend has not been fully broken, although short-term momentum has cooled. RMB 21.40–21.96 is the recent resistance zone, while RMB 20.20–20.60 and RMB 19.60–19.90 are the support zones to monitor. Future price action should be assessed together with turnover, trading-value turnover, capital flows and changes in the tanker market.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Principal Businesses and Product Portfolio

• Foreign-trade oil transportation: Transports international crude oil and refined oil products through spot chartering, time charters, voyage charters, COAs and other models. Routes cover the Middle East, Africa, the Atlantic, Europe and Asia. Revenue in 2024 was RMB 14.574 billion, accounting for approximately 62.7% of revenue from principal operations; gross profit was RMB 3.586 billion and gross margin was 24.6%, down 5.0 percentage points year on year.
• Domestic-trade oil transportation: Provides coastal transportation of crude oil and refined oil products in China. Customers include domestic oil companies, refineries and energy companies. Revenue in 2024 was approximately RMB 5.909 billion, accounting for approximately 25.4% of revenue from principal operations; gross profit was RMB 1.475 billion and gross margin was approximately 25.0%. The company disclosed that COA contracts locked in more than 91% of base cargo volume for domestic-trade oil transportation in 2024.
• LNG transportation: Participates in the investment, construction and operation of large LNG carriers, primarily relying on major energy projects, long-term charter contracts and project lock-ins. Revenue in 2024 was RMB 2.229 billion, accounting for approximately 9.6% of revenue from principal operations; gross margin was approximately 48.3%.
• LPG transportation: Transports LPG, propylene, butadiene and other liquefied gases and related chemical gases, covering domestic coastal and international routes. Revenue in 2024 was RMB 206 million, accounting for approximately 0.9% of revenue from principal operations; gross margin was approximately 25.2%.
• Chemical transportation: Engages in domestic coastal and international waterborne transportation of bulk liquid chemicals, covering foreign-trade routes in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia as well as domestic coastal routes. Revenue in 2024 was RMB 314 million, accounting for approximately 1.4% of revenue from principal operations; gross margin was approximately 16.9%.
• Note: The sum of the above segment revenues differs slightly from revenue from principal operations, possibly due to segment presentation, leasing and other business classifications. The company’s annual-report segment notes shall prevail. Revenue shares are approximate calculations based on annual-report data.

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

COSCO Shipping Energy operates in the midstream of the energy-shipping industry chain. It is an asset-heavy transportation-services provider that uses owned, controlled, joint-venture and associate vessels to transport crude oil, refined oil products, LNG, LPG and bulk liquid chemicals. Foreign-trade oil transportation is sensitive to international freight-rate cycles, while domestic-trade oil transportation and LNG operations obtain a degree of stability through COAs, time charters and long-term project contracts.

• Marine fuel is a major cost source for oil transportation. In 2024, fuel costs for oil transportation were approximately RMB 5.335 billion, accounting for 34.8% of oil-transportation costs. Fuel prices are affected by international oil prices, marine-fuel supply and demand, and regional port price differentials. The company is generally a price taker for fuel costs and primarily reduces unit consumption through economical sailing speeds, energy-saving technologies, centralized procurement and route optimization.
• Vessel depreciation and capital costs are high. In 2024, depreciation for oil transportation was approximately RMB 2.911 billion, accounting for 19.0% of oil-transportation costs; LNG-transportation depreciation was approximately RMB 533 million, accounting for 46.2% of LNG-transportation costs. The high depreciation share for LNG is related to the high construction cost of vessels, long construction periods and project-based operating models.
• Vessel leasing is an important cost item. In 2024, vessel charter costs for oil transportation were approximately RMB 2.557 billion, accounting for 16.7% of oil-transportation costs and increasing 35.0% year on year, primarily due to the addition of VLCCs under time charter. Chartering helps rapidly expand capacity but increases cost pressure when charter rates rise.
• Crew, port and maintenance services have a degree of rigidity. In 2024, crew costs, port costs and repair costs accounted for approximately 14.9%, 5.7% and 2.6%, respectively, of oil-transportation costs, and may pressure profit during periods of weak industry conditions.
• Supplier concentration is relatively high. The company disclosed that purchases from its five largest suppliers accounted for 81.6% of total annual purchases in 2024, with purchases related to its indirect controlling shareholder, China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited, accounting for 52.0%. Related purchases and services include shipping materials and crew leasing. The group can provide synergies in centralized fuel procurement, port charges, vessel repairs, logistics networks and shipping finance.
• The company lacks unilateral pricing power over major fuel, vessel-leasing and certain shipping-service costs and is generally closer to a cost price taker. Group procurement synergies help reduce transaction costs, but the high proportion of related-party purchases requires attention to the fairness of related-party transaction pricing and reliance on a single group system.
• Downstream customers include domestic state-owned oil companies and refineries, international oil companies and traders, LNG project owners and energy importers, large natural-gas companies, as well as chemical producers, traders and liquefied-gas customers.
• Foreign-trade oil transportation is primarily constrained by international freight-rate benchmarks, and the company has limited ability to raise prices unilaterally. Profitability depends on fleet size, vessel mix, customer quality, route-organization capabilities and timing within the market cycle.
• Domestic-trade oil transportation relies more heavily on COAs and long-term base cargo. The company disclosed that in 2024 it signed COA contracts with several core customers, locking in more than 91% of base cargo volume, thereby providing a degree of earnings protection.
• LNG transportation primarily relies on major energy projects, time charters and long-term contracts. Customer and project acquisition, vessel construction and management capabilities, and financing capabilities form important competitive barriers. Revenue stability is generally higher than that of tanker businesses fully exposed to spot markets.
• The company’s annual report did not identify any situation during the reporting period in which sales to a single customer exceeded 50% or in which the company was heavily dependent on a small number of customers. According to the F10 data of Tonghuashun, sales to the five largest customers in 2024 were approximately RMB 12.2 billion, accounting for 52.6% of revenue. However, this figure was not cross-checked against the annual-report text reviewed for this report and is based on a single secondary source. The company’s annual-report disclosure on customer concentration shall prevail.
• Structurally, foreign-trade oil transportation is an international, market-oriented and highly cyclical transportation service. Freight rates are jointly determined by global fleet supply, oil-trade routes, tonne-mile demand, geopolitics and environmental policies. Domestic-trade oil transportation and LNG long-term project contracts can partly cushion spot freight-rate fluctuations.
• As of the end of 2024, the carrying balance of consolidated accounts receivable was approximately RMB 545 million, down from approximately RMB 584 million at the beginning of the year and accounting for approximately 2.3% of 2024 revenue from principal operations. Approximately RMB 535 million had an aging of less than one year, indicating a generally short collection cycle. The company’s capital commitments also include vessel-construction prepayments, capital expenditure, vessel leasing, fuel procurement and port settlements. Therefore, low accounts receivable alone should not be taken as evidence of strong downstream bargaining power.
• Supply side: Purchases from the five largest suppliers accounted for 81.6% of total purchases in 2024, with purchases related to China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited accounting for 52.0%, according to the company’s 2024 annual report. Demand side: The annual report did not identify any single customer accounting for more than 50% of sales; the statement that “the five largest customers accounted for 52.6% of revenue in 2024” came only from Tonghuashun F10 and was not cross-checked against the annual report. The data source is limited, and the latest annual report shall prevail.

The company is positioned in the midstream of the energy-shipping industry chain and is an asset-heavy, highly cyclical transportation-services provider rather than an upstream resource producer or downstream branded enterprise. Profit is primarily driven by the foreign-trade oil-transportation cycle and international freight rates, while domestic COAs and LNG long-term project contracts provide a buffer. Future profit improvement will depend on recovering tanker freight rates, expansion of LNG long-term projects, coordination between domestic and foreign trade, fleet upsizing, and control of fuel, chartering and capital costs, rather than on traditional brand premiums.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The 2026 interim report was disclosed on August 29, 2026, covering January 1 to June 30, 2026, and was unaudited. 2025 net profit attributable to the parent was affected by non-recurring factors including gains on asset disposals and impairment losses: gains on asset disposals were approximately RMB 666 million and impairment losses were approximately RMB 456 million.

The company’s performance improved significantly in the first half of 2026. Revenue increased 30.03% year on year, net profit attributable to the parent increased 143.21%, and recurring net profit attributable to the parent increased 150.88% to RMB 4.449 billion, with recurring-profit growth exceeding net-profit growth. Profit growth was primarily driven by foreign-trade oil transportation. Revenue from LNG transportation in the first half was approximately RMB 1.520 billion, up 22.20% year on year, contributing approximately RMB 512 million of net profit attributable to the parent, up 20.75%. The core driver of the sharp increase in profit was not the LNG business, but the strengthening tanker market. Gross margin in the first half of 2026 was approximately 41.39%, above approximately 26.13% for full-year 2025.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Earnings forecasts are based on forecasts from seven institutions compiled by Securities Star as of September 8, 2026, as well as research reports from Guohai Securities, Industrial Securities, Founder Securities, CFi.cn and another publicly available report. Securities Star’s average EPS is a simple arithmetic average of the seven institutional forecasts and is not a strictly consistent consensus estimate. Institutions differ in their assumptions regarding freight-rate cycles, geopolitics, fleet supply and share capital. The forecasts do not constitute formal company guidance.

3.3 Valuation and Institutional Ratings

The latest available market data are for the September 11, 2026 close: closing price of RMB 20.86, daily decline of 2.07%, total market capitalization of approximately RMB 114.130 billion, free-float market capitalization of approximately RMB 79.852 billion, and total shares of approximately 5.471 billion. TTM P/E was 16.67x, dynamic P/E 12.54x, static P/E 25.25x and P/B 2.37x. As of September 10, 2026, Lixinger showed a P/E of approximately 17.36x, P/B of approximately 2.42x and a P/E percentile of approximately 39.39%. Differences across platforms reflect different methodologies for TTM profit, adjusted share prices and net assets. Based on average institutional EPS, the share price of RMB 20.86 implies a 2026E P/E of approximately 9.4x and a 2027E P/E of approximately 7.8x. Based on Industrial Securities’ 2026E EPS of RMB 2.16, 2026E P/E is approximately 9.7x. Based on Guohai Securities’ 2026 net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 11.721 billion, the implied P/E is approximately 9.7x. The company currently exhibits the characteristics of “not-low historical TTM valuation but low forward cyclical valuation.” The low forward valuation depends on continued strong tanker-market conditions. Public target prices are mainly concentrated in the RMB 25–32 range, implying theoretical upside of approximately 20%–54% from the September 11, 2026 closing price. However, target prices rely on assumptions of strong tanker-market conditions, sustained high freight rates or continued geopolitical support for transportation demand and should not be regarded as certain returns. Key risks include falling tanker rates, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz leading to improved transportation efficiency and lower freight rates, a global economic slowdown and reduced crude-oil trade, faster-than-expected new-vessel deliveries, rising fuel and insurance costs, and adverse effects of changes in geopolitical conflicts on routes and freight rates.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 First-Half 2026 Earnings Preannouncement Confirmed by Formal Report

On July 11, 2026, the company disclosed a preannouncement of substantially higher first-half 2026 earnings, estimating net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company at approximately RMB 4.5 billion, up approximately 141% year on year, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at approximately RMB 4.4 billion, up approximately 148%. The interim report disclosed on August 29, 2026 showed actual net profit attributable to the parent of approximately RMB 4.545 billion, up approximately 143.21% year on year, and recurring net profit attributable to the parent of approximately RMB 4.449 billion, up approximately 150.9%. The interim report stated that it was unaudited. The company attributed earnings growth to factors including improved conditions in the international tanker market during the reporting period.

4.2 Company to Hold First-Half 2026 Results Briefing

The company announced that it would hold a first-half 2026 results briefing from 15:00 to 16:30 on September 21, 2026. Investors may submit questions in advance from September 14 to 16:00 on September 18, 2026. The meeting may provide further information on the tanker market, fleet capacity, second-half operations and capital expenditure. Specific details remain subject to the briefing and subsequent disclosures.

4.3 Interim 2026 Profit Distribution Plan

On August 29, 2026, the company’s board approved the interim 2026 profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 0.28 per share, including tax, to all A-share and H-share shareholders, equivalent to RMB 2.80 per 10 shares. Based on total shares of 5,471,206,653 as of June 30, 2026, the expected cash dividend is approximately RMB 1.532 billion. The final total dividend will be determined based on total shares outstanding on the record date. If total shares change before the record date, the company will maintain the dividend per share and adjust the total distribution accordingly. As of September 14, 2026, the record date, ex-dividend and ex-rights date, and actual payment date remained subject to confirmation in a subsequent implementation announcement.

4.4 Disposal by Certain Directors and Senior Executives Completed

On August 12, 2026, the company disclosed the results of share disposals by certain directors and senior executives. Zhu Maijin disposed of 25,700 shares between May 12 and August 11, 2026, at RMB 22.39 per share, for proceeds of approximately RMB 575,400. His remaining holding was 77,280 shares, with 45 shares under the original plan not disposed of. Board Secretary Ni Yidan disposed of 13,600 shares during the same period at RMB 22.55 per share, for proceeds of approximately RMB 306,700. Her remaining holding was 40,890 shares, with 22 shares under the original plan not disposed of. The disposals complied with the previously disclosed disposal plan. Each disposal represented less than 0.001% of total company shares and had no material impact on control or the shareholding structure.

4.5 Departure of Non-Executive Director and Board Changes

On September 2, 2026, the company disclosed that Wang Wei had resigned as non-executive director and member of the audit committee due to a change in his work position. At the extraordinary general meeting held during the same period, a proposal to elect a non-executive director was approved. Of the votes cast by ordinary shares, 91.7551% were in favor and 8.2372% were against, representing a total of 2,897,495,458 ordinary shares. On September 11, 2026, the company disclosed the resolution of the twelfth board meeting of 2026. Public information currently indicates that the personnel changes were primarily related to work-position adjustments and corporate-governance arrangements, and no statement directly linking them to regulatory penalties, financial fraud or major operating risks was identified.

4.6 Acquisition of 100% of COSCO Shipping Dalian Investment Co., Ltd. and Merger by Absorption

On April 28, 2026, the company disclosed that its wholly owned subsidiary, Dalian COSCO Shipping Energy Supply Chain Co., Ltd., intended to acquire the 100% equity interest in COSCO Shipping Dalian Investment Co., Ltd. held by China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited. The transaction price was approximately RMB 1.585 billion, with the final price to be based on the asset appraisal value filed with the competent state-owned-assets authority. After completion, Dalian Energy would merge Dalian Investment by absorption, the relevant entrusted-management agreement would terminate, and the transaction would constitute a related-party transaction. Subsequent shareholders’ meeting materials disclosed on June 27, 2026 further confirmed the matter. According to the interim report disclosed on August 29, 2026, there had been no progress or change in implementation as of that time. As of September 14, 2026, no further announcement had been identified confirming final filing of the price or completion of the merger by absorption. Therefore, RMB 1.585 billion should not be regarded as the final settlement price.

4.7 Vessel Construction Contracts and Fleet Investment

The company’s first-half 2026 report disclosed that between 2024 and 2026, the company and its subsidiaries signed multiple vessel construction contracts with Qidong COSCO Shipping Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. and Yangzhou COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., including contracts for crude-oil carriers and LPG vessels. Six vessel construction contracts signed with Qidong COSCO Shipping Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. had a total tax-inclusive value of approximately RMB 4.227 billion, of which approximately RMB 1.126 billion had been paid as of June 30, 2026. Four LPG-vessel construction contracts signed with Yangzhou COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. had a total tax-inclusive value of approximately RMB 3.209 billion. These matters relate to fleet investment and capacity expansion. Certain contracts had been announced previously and do not constitute new matters in September 2026.

4.8 No New Share Repurchase Matter Identified Recently

As of September 14, 2026, no newly disclosed A-share repurchase plan, repurchase implementation update or repurchase-cancellation announcement had been identified in the company’s announcement list from July to September 2026 or in recent information on major matters. Recent capital-return activity has primarily taken the form of the interim 2026 cash dividend rather than a new share repurchase. This conclusion is based on the public announcement list and relevant keyword searches available as of September 14, 2026, and does not mean that the company has absolutely no historical repurchases or future repurchase arrangements.

4.9 Review of Regulatory and Trading-Abnormality Matters

As of September 14, 2026, no announcement had been identified indicating that the company received a regulatory inquiry, disciplinary sanction, administrative penalty or major violation investigation from the Shanghai Stock Exchange during July–September 2026. On July 10, 2026, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice on the regular second-quarter 2026 adjustment of securities eligible for margin financing and securities lending. 600026 COSCO Shipping Energy remained on the list, with security number 520. This was an adjustment at the level of trading rules and market infrastructure, not a regulatory penalty or risk warning directed at the company. No announcement of abnormal stock-price volatility in September 2026 had been identified.

4.10 Recent Operating and Investment Risk Warnings

The company’s performance is highly correlated with international tanker freight rates, geopolitics, route safety and the pace of global crude-oil trade. The sharp increase in first-half 2026 performance was confirmed by an unaudited interim report, but the increase is highly cyclical and cannot be simply extrapolated to the full year or future years. As of September 14, 2026, the record date and implementation date of the interim dividend, the final transaction price for the related-party transaction, and the completion date of the merger by absorption remained subject to subsequent announcements.

5. Share-Price Performance and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of September 11, 2026, COSCO Shipping Energy closed at RMB 20.86. After rising rapidly since mid-August, the stock recently retreated from above RMB 21.00. Technically, the price was slightly below the MA5 and MA10 but remained clearly above the MA20. MACD remained above the zero axis and RSI of approximately 54.19 was in neutral territory, indicating that the medium-term uptrend had not been fully broken but short-term momentum had cooled from earlier levels. The share price was between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, with resistance around RMB 21.40–21.96 and important support zones at RMB 20.20–20.60 and RMB 19.60–19.90. In terms of capital flows, recent main-force capital flows were cumulatively positive, but the structure on September 11 showed super-large-order outflows and large-order inflows. Future price action should be assessed based on trading value, turnover and whether the price can effectively break through key ranges.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week; Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis based on the September 11, 2026 closing data. It does not constitute investment advice or a certain forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 60%; a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical indicators and capital flows, not a statistical probability): Price range of approximately RMB 20.20–21.50. Conditions include holding around RMB 20.20, trading value returning to the recent normal range, and failure to effectively break through the RMB 21.40–21.96 resistance zone. RSI near 50 and convergence of the MA5 and MA10 would also be consistent with short-term consolidation and digestion
• Moderately weak decline (medium weight; subjective heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability): Price range of approximately RMB 19.60–20.20. Conditions include an effective break below RMB 20.20 accompanied by expanded daily trading value but continued weakness at the close, or consecutive net outflows from super-large orders. A further break below RMB 19.60 could open room for a retreat toward the MA20 and the RMB 19 area
• Strong rebound (relatively low weight; subjective heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability): Price range of approximately RMB 21.40–22.80. Conditions include reclaiming RMB 21.40 and breaking above the RMB 21.96 previous high on trading value clearly above recent normal levels, together with renewed synchronized net inflows from super-large and large orders, or sustained gains across the oil-transportation and shipping sectors. An intraday spike without volume confirmation would not constitute an effective breakout

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Recent liquidity data show daily trading value of approximately RMB 1.172–2.207 billion and turnover of approximately 1.52%–2.72% from September 7 to September 11, 2026. Including the broader recent reference range covering September 3 and September 9, trading value was approximately RMB 1.17–2.33 billion and turnover approximately 1.5%–3.0%. As of June 30, 2026, the company had 92,384 ordinary shareholders. The ten largest shareholders collectively held approximately 4.260 billion shares, or approximately 77.87% of total shares. The ten largest free-float shareholders collectively held approximately 3.913 billion shares, or approximately 76.36% of the free float. Institutions collectively held approximately 2.818 billion shares, or approximately 73.62% of the free float. Of this, funds accounted for approximately 4.67%, insurance companies approximately 0.95% and QFII approximately 0.39%; most of the remainder was classified as other institutions, primarily reflecting holdings by the controlling shareholder and state-owned capital. China Shipping Group Co., Ltd. held 28.09%, China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited held 18.76%, and HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED held 23.58%. COSCO Shipping Group and its subsidiaries collectively held approximately 2.563 billion A shares, or approximately 46.85% of total shares issued. The shareholder-structure data are as of June 30, 2026, approximately two and a half months earlier than the market data and may have changed. In practical terms, the company has relatively concentrated ownership and a high proportion of holdings by the controlling shareholder and state-owned capital, leaving a relatively limited freely tradable float. However, high concentration does not equal strong short-term buying demand, which still needs to be assessed together with trading volume and capital flows.

Observational volume-confirmation signal: If daily trading value subsequently expands consistently to approximately RMB 2.0 billion or more, turnover reaches approximately 2.5%–3.0%, and the closing price simultaneously moves above RMB 21.40 and then breaks RMB 21.96, the effectiveness of the breakout would be strengthened. If trading value expands while the share price closes lower, this would more closely resemble a high-level distribution or disagreement signal.

④ Points to Monitor (For Observation Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the RMB 20.20–20.60 area attracts support and whether trading value returns to the recent normal range.
• Observe whether RMB 19.60–19.90 forms strong support. If RMB 19.60 is breached, monitor the possibility of a retreat toward the MA20 at approximately RMB 19.37 and the RMB 19 area.
• Observe whether the RMB 21.40–21.96 resistance zone can be broken on sustained trading value of approximately RMB 2.0 billion or more and turnover of approximately 2.5%–3.0%.
• Observe whether super-large-order capital flows can shift from net outflows to sustained net inflows synchronized with large-order flows. All of the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and calculations using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices may also be affected by news, capital flows, the broader market environment, tanker-market conditions and shipping-sector performance. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited. This analysis does not guarantee actual future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should independently assess the latest market information and bear investment risks themselves.

6. Industry Structure and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Conditions

The company falls under water transportation within the transportation, warehousing and postal-services sector under the CSRC industry classification. Its sub-sector is liquid cargo transportation, covering crude-oil transportation, refined-oil transportation, LNG/LPG transportation and chemical transportation. The industry is characterized by high capital intensity, long vessel-construction cycles, stringent environmental-compliance requirements, high vessel specialization and strong cyclicality.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The domestic oil-transportation market consists of a small number of large state-owned shipowners controlling core resources, while smaller shipowners compete in specific vessel types and regional markets. Public industry materials identify COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping as the major domestic competitors in large tanker transportation.
• The global tanker market is highly cyclical. Freight rates are jointly affected by global fleet supply, oil-trade routes, tonne-mile demand, geopolitics and environmental policies. As of the end of 2024, the global tanker orderbook comprised approximately 1,160 new vessels, representing 14.21% of the global tanker fleet. The pace of newbuilding deliveries and fleet aging will affect future supply-demand balance.
• LNG transportation has higher competitive barriers than ordinary tanker transportation. It generally requires large specialized vessels, long-term charter contracts, strict safety management, qualifications among major energy customers, project-acquisition capabilities, financing capabilities and vessel-construction management capabilities.
• COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping have both invested in large international LNG projects such as QatarEnergy. As of the end of 2024, China Merchants Energy Shipping had invested in 64 LNG vessels, of which 61 had secured long-term contracts, making it the most direct A-share comparable company in LNG transportation.
• Key industry uncertainties include tanker and LNG freight rates, fuel prices, vessel charter rates, exchange rates, environmental rules, geopolitics, vessel deliveries and changes in capital expenditure. Historical gross margins should not be simply extrapolated into future profitability.

6.3 Major Competitors

COSCO Shipping Energy focuses on tanker and energy transportation and benefits from large-tanker fleets, LNG projects and the resource synergies of a central state-owned enterprise. China Merchants Energy Shipping is more diversified and is the most direct comprehensive comparable company. China Merchants Nanjing Oil Transportation is more targeted toward small and medium-sized liquid-cargo vessels and regional routes. Xingtong Shipping and Shing Shipping are comparable in specialized liquid-cargo markets including chemicals, refined oil products and LPG. Ningbo Marine and Highton Development have limited overlap with the company’s core businesses and are mainly used as broad shipping valuation references.

7. Risk Factors

• Risk of declining international tanker freight rates: Foreign-trade oil transportation accounted for approximately 62.7% of 2024 revenue from principal operations, making profit highly sensitive to the international tanker market. If global crude-oil trade declines, trade routes normalize or geopolitical factors weaken, freight rates could fall and compress profit.
• Cyclicality and earnings-forecast risk: Net profit attributable to the parent increased 143.21% year on year in the first half of 2026, but the interim report was unaudited and the increase was primarily driven by stronger tanker-market conditions. Institutional forecasts for 2026–2028 vary significantly. If high freight rates cannot be sustained, current forward valuation and earnings expectations may be reassessed.
• Fleet expansion and capital-expenditure risk: As of the end of 2024, the company had 12 tankers under construction and was advancing construction contracts for VLCCs, LPG vessels and other ships. These investments are substantial and have long construction cycles. Concentrated deliveries, weakening market conditions or lower-than-expected project returns could increase depreciation, financing and operating pressure.
• Risk of rising vessel-leasing costs: Vessel charter costs for oil transportation were approximately RMB 2.557 billion in 2024, up 35.0% year on year, primarily due to additional VLCCs under time charter. If charter rates continue to rise while freight rates do not increase in tandem, chartered capacity could compress oil-transportation margins.
• Fuel and rigid operating-cost risks: Oil-transportation fuel costs were approximately RMB 5.335 billion in 2024, accounting for 34.8% of oil-transportation costs. Crew, port and maintenance costs also have a degree of rigidity. Rising fuel prices, port charges or maintenance costs could erode incremental profit generated by higher freight rates.
• Asset-impairment risk: In 2021, the company recognized approximately RMB 4.961 billion of impairment losses on 94 vessels. In 2025, it was again affected by non-recurring factors including impairment losses. If vessel values, charter rates or market conditions decline materially again, further impairment losses could arise and disrupt net profit attributable to the parent.
• Related-party procurement and supplier-concentration risk: Purchases from the five largest suppliers accounted for 81.6% of total purchases in 2024, with purchases related to China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited accounting for 52.0%. Group synergies benefit procurement and services, but the high concentration also indicates substantial reliance on a single group system and the fairness of related-party transaction pricing.
• Project and related-party transaction implementation risk: The final transaction price for the acquisition of 100% of COSCO Shipping Dalian Investment Co., Ltd. and the merger by absorption remains subject to filing of the appraised value with the competent state-owned-assets authority. As of September 14, 2026, final filing and completion dates had not been confirmed, creating uncertainty regarding implementation progress and actual funding arrangements.
• Technical pullback and market-expectation volatility risk: As of September 11, 2026, the share price had retreated from recent highs, with the close below the MA5 and MA10. If RMB 20.20 is breached and RMB 19.60 is subsequently lost, the price could retreat toward the MA20 at approximately RMB 19.37. Technical indicators reflect only historical price and capital-flow changes and cannot rule out unexpected movements caused by tanker-market conditions, news or overall market volatility.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company’s core growth drivers are the freight-rate elasticity associated with a recovery in international tanker-market conditions, together with a business mix comprising a large-tanker fleet, domestic-trade COA base cargo and LNG long-term projects. In the first half of 2026, growth in recurring profit exceeded growth in net profit attributable to the parent, indicating that the improvement was primarily reflected in operating profit. If international tanker demand, route restructuring and freight rates remain elevated, new and under-construction capacity could expand revenue and profit elasticity.

Medium- and long-term performance remains strongly cyclical. In 2024, revenue from principal operations increased 2.5% year on year, while the cost of principal operations increased 5.8% and comprehensive gross margin declined to 26.9%. Historically, weak international tanker conditions caused substantial impairment losses and losses in 2021, demonstrating that earnings during strong market conditions cannot be extrapolated linearly. Vessel construction, chartering, fuel and financing require substantial investment. Future earnings quality should be assessed together with freight rates, fleet-delivery schedules, charter rates and capital expenditure.

The company plans to pay an interim 2026 cash dividend of RMB 0.28 per share, but as of September 14, 2026, the record date, ex-dividend and ex-rights date, and actual payment date remained subject to subsequent announcements. The final filing price and implementation progress for the acquisition of 100% of COSCO Shipping Dalian Investment Co., Ltd. and the merger by absorption had also not been determined. Key areas to monitor include the second-half operating outlook, capacity deployment and capital-expenditure arrangements disclosed at the interim results briefing, as well as whether tanker-market conditions can support fulfillment of the 2026–2028 earnings forecasts.

Data Sources

• 2024 Annual Report of the Joint Stock Company
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report
• COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. 2024 Annual Report
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2021 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2022 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Historical P/E, Historical P/B, Historical Dividend Yield, News, Financial Reports, Research Reports and Data—Financial Vision
• Joint Stock Company
• 2. Industry Concentration and Competitiveness
• China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Energy Shipping: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• China Merchants Nanjing Oil Transportation (601975)_Company Announcements_China Merchants Nanjing Oil Transportation: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• Joint Stock Company 2024 Annual Report
• Shing Shipping (001205)_Company Announcements_Shing Shipping: 2024 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: Summary of 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2025 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Institutional Forecasts—Securities Star
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• https://reportify.cn/reports/1273772076959928320?utm_source=openai
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) 2026 Interim Results Review: Q2 Efficiency Losses Still Supported Strong Earnings Growth; Sequential Improvement Expected in Q3
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• Institutional Ratings|Two Institutions Update COSCO Shipping Energy Rating
• COSCO Shipping Energy sh600026 Stock Price, Market Data, Live Feed, News, Financial Reports and Data—Aigupiao
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) P/E|Valuation|Fundamentals—Lixinger
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Company Information—Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2026 First-Half Earnings Preannouncement_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Trading Alerts—Securities Star
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: Announcement on Holding the 2026 Interim Results Briefing_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: Announcement on the 2026 Interim Profit Distribution Plan_Sina Finance
• Announcement No. 2026-012
• Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: Results of Share Disposals by Certain Directors and Senior Executives_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy: Wang Wei Resigns from Non-Executive Director and Other Positions—Eastmoney
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Company Announcements—Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: Announcement on the Acquisition of 100% Equity Interest in COSCO Shipping Dalian Investment Co., Ltd. by a Wholly Owned Subsidiary and Merger by Absorption and Related-Party Transaction_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance
• Regulatory Inquiries | Shanghai Stock Exchange
• Notice on Matters Related to the Regular Second-Quarter 2026 Adjustment of Securities Eligible for Margin Financing and Securities Lending | Shanghai Stock Exchange
• Stock Name: COSCO Shipping Energy　　Stock Code: 600026　　Announcement No.: 2026-010
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: Resolution of the 2026 Third Extraordinary General Meeting_Sina Finance
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) Stock Information—Data Platform
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Stock Quote, Quote Homepage—CFi.cn
• Chiyu Banking Corporation
• COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co Ltd (600026) Historical Prices—Investing.com
• COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co Ltd Stock Technical Analysis (600026)
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Capital Flows_Securities Star
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)—Historical Trading Data—Dabanke
• COSCO Shipping Energy (600026)_Company Announcements_COSCO Shipping Energy: 2026 Interim Report_Sina Finance

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. Information is as of the market data and technical indicators primarily at the September 11, 2026 close; shareholder concentration data are as of June 30, 2026, and therefore have a lag of approximately two and a half months. September 12–13, 2026 fell on a weekend, so no new A-share closing prices were generated. Information may differ in timeliness. Specific data should be based on the company’s formal announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.