Milkyway Intelligent Supply Chain Service Group Co., Ltd. (603713)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Transportation/Logistics/Warehousing Logistics (Comprehensive Hazardous Chemicals Supply Chain Services) | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | The research notes do not provide a clear cut-off date for market data; price-related figures appearing in the notes are only found in external page title fragments (e.g., "64.61 -2.47(-3.68%)"), and the corresponding trading day cannot be confirmed. Therefore, this section makes no assertion regarding a price cut-off time, and data is missing.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

I. Core Summary

Milkyway achieved operating revenue of RMB 7.970 billion in H1 2026 (YoY +13.29%) and net profit attributable to parent of RMB 381 million (YoY +8.37%). Revenue growth has slowed markedly from +24.26% for full-year 2024, and profit growth has also declined step by step to single digits, showing a pattern of revenue growing faster than profit. Over the same period, net operating cash flow was only RMB 201 million, down 83.82% YoY, and financial expenses surged 34% YoY, of which exchange losses expanded from RMB 8.7166 million in the same period last year to RMB 32.5889 million, the most decision-relevant warning fact this period. In Q2 2026 alone, revenue was RMB 4.226 billion (YoY +14.44%, QoQ +12.89%) and net profit attributable to parent was RMB 197 million (YoY +9.62%, QoQ +6.72%), showing improvement on a QoQ basis.

In terms of business structure, the company's integrated "logistics + commerce" model continues: H1 2026 integrated logistics revenue was RMB 4.155 billion (52.14% of revenue, gross margin 13.81%), chemical trading (MCD distribution) revenue was RMB 3.803 billion (47.72% of revenue, gross margin only 7.37%), and overseas revenue was only RMB 205 million (2.58%). In 2025, regional warehousing MRW contributed 20.5% of gross profit with about 6.0% of revenue, with a gross margin of 39.4%, the core profit pillar distinguishing the company from pure freight forwarders/pure traders, though this business's gross margin fell 4.9 percentage points in 2025 due to depreciation of new warehouses.

Customer structure upgrading is currently the clearest growth clue: the revenue share of the top five customers has fallen from 31.23% in 2018 to 14.56% in 2025, with highly dispersed customers; in H1 2026, revenue/gross profit contribution from new energy and chip semiconductor customers reached 21%/29% respectively, with an estimated gross margin of about 15.0%, significantly higher than 8.6% for traditional chemical customers (single brokerage estimate from Caitong Securities), and the company has been building around SMIC since 2019 and put into operation the Tianjin Xiqing integrated circuit hazardous chemicals logistics base in 2023.

At the capital level, in June 2026 the company completed a repurchase of 1,812,200 shares (1.15% of total share capital, average price RMB 55.73/share, total cost about RMB 101 million); for 2025 it plans a dividend of RMB 10 per 10 shares, with dividends plus repurchases together accounting for 31.75% of net profit attributable to parent. In September 2026, the board raised the annual comprehensive bank credit line from no more than RMB 14.4 billion to RMB 18.2 billion, and the guarantee limit from RMB 9.81 billion to RMB 14.51 billion, and scheduled an extraordinary shareholders' meeting on September 29, 2026 to review proposals including changing registered capital and by-electing non-independent directors, reflecting that funding and guarantee exposure are expanding simultaneously during the expansion period.

II. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• MGL Global International Logistics Business: global freight forwarding (MGF) + global mobility (MGM, tank containers/liquid bulk vessels/project logistics/LNG tank containers); the annual report explicitly states that this segment has high revenue and costs and relatively low profit margin, because carrier transportation costs are included in its own costs
• MCL Global Contract Logistics Business: regional warehousing (MRW, warehouse rent + in/out warehouse fees) + regional domestic delivery (MRT, road/water/rail multimodal transport, three-tier network of intra-city distribution/inter-city express/trunk express)
• MCD Differentiated Distribution Business: chemical trading/distribution, including direct sales (centralized procurement and distribution) and indirect sales (matching, store agency operation), and self-built solid/liquid compounding workshops and laboratories, earning product spreads + consulting service fees + logistics service fees + compounding and repackaging value-added service fees

2.3 Industry Chain Upstream/Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

The company is a service/circulation enterprise following a "logistics + commerce" integrated trade-logistics route, using self-built hazardous chemicals warehousing, tank containers, and transport capacity as its physical foundation, undertaking freight forwarding upstream and extending downstream into chemical distribution. The upstream is not "raw materials" but transport capacity, warehousing assets, and chemical supply sources; downstream customers are upstream and downstream enterprises in the chemical industry chain, and the company is expanding into new fields such as new energy and semiconductors.

• International trunk transport capacity: purchases space from sea/air/rail carriers, and carrier transportation costs are also included in its own costs; the freight forwarding business is essentially a passive taker of freight rates plus a spread earner; in 2025, affected by tariff policies and YoY declines in sea and air freight rates, MGF revenue fell 0.1% YoY (Source: 2025 annual report summary)
• Warehousing fixed assets and leasing: depreciation of self-built warehouses, rent of leased warehouses, purchase of tank containers and vehicles; in Q4 2025, some newly commissioned warehouses began depreciation and newly leased warehouses were added, causing cost growth to significantly exceed revenue growth (Huachuang Securities 2026-08-14)
• Chemical procurement (direct cost of distribution business): H1 2026 chemical trading cost was RMB 3.523 billion, corresponding to revenue of RMB 3.803 billion, gross margin 7.37%, a typical thin-margin bulk trade; the company basically has no bargaining power over procurement prices from upstream chemical giants (Source: East Money main business composition page)
• Supplier concentration: this search did not find cross-verifiable data on the share of the top five suppliers, marked as a data gap, and it is recommended to supplement with the "major suppliers" section of the annual report
• Customers are upstream and downstream enterprises in the chemical industry chain; disclosed long-term cooperative customers include BASF Group, Dow Group, AkzoNobel, PPG Industries, Jotun Group, Arkema Group, Wanhua Chemical, Ailang Group, Solvay Group, ExxonMobil, etc. (Source: East Money core themes page, Cailian Press individual stock page)
• Customer concentration (verifiable): the 2025 annual report discloses that sales to the top five customers were RMB 1,930,979,900 (about RMB 1.931 billion), accounting for 14.56% of annual total sales; the first accounted for 4.49% (RMB 595 million), the second 4.19%, the third 2.78%, the fourth 1.61%, and the fifth 1.49%, with related-party sales of 0 (Source: 2025 annual report "Major Sales Customers" section)
• Historical trend of customer concentration: the share of revenue from the top five customers fell from 31.23% in 2018 to 14.88% in 2024, and further to 14.56% in 2025; the number of effective customers exceeds 10,000 (2025H1 basis) (Source: Sohu Finance 2025-12-01, Huayuan Securities research report)
• Downstream structure upgrading: the company is expanding customers from traditional chemicals to new energy, new materials, intelligent manufacturing, chips and semiconductors, daily chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and hazardous waste; in H1 2026, revenue/gross profit contribution from new energy and chip semiconductor customers reached 21%/29% respectively, with an estimated gross margin of about 15.0%, significantly higher than 8.6% for traditional chemical customers (Caitong Securities 2026-09-09, a single brokerage estimate, not the company's disclosed basis, and must be marked as a brokerage estimate)
• Semiconductor entry timeline: since 2019 it has made forward-looking arrangements around SMIC, and in 2023 it put into operation the Tianjin Xiqing base, the country's first professional hazardous chemicals logistics base for integrated circuit semiconductors (Changjiang Securities 2026-09-07, a single brokerage statement)
• Structural bargaining dynamics in the industry: the logistics service side faces carrier freight rate fluctuations and customer annual price reductions/service price pressure, while the distribution side is a passive price taker in bulk trade (gross margin 7%-8%), overall a moderately weak bargaining position
• Positive signals: highly dispersed customers (top five only 14.56%), MCD distribution adopts a "direct sales/matching" model, different from pure accounts-receivable bulk trade; MRW warehousing uses a prepaid/monthly settlement rent model, and "high gross margin + strong cash flow" was repeatedly mentioned by brokerages in the 2025 annual report, with 2025 operating cash flow per share of about RMB 4.76 (performance summary basis). Pressure signals: M&A-driven expansion brought goodwill of RMB 1.473 billion (as of 2025-03-31, Compass Market Network), debt-to-asset ratio 68.33% (same period), and 2026Q1 operating cash flow of -RMB 0.31/share (about -RMB 48.2891 million, Huaxi Securities APP basis), with obvious seasonal/expansionary occupation. Data gap: this search did not obtain specific figures for accounts receivable turnover days or accounts payable/prepayments proportion, so a strictly cross-verifiable working capital occupation conclusion cannot be given; the above judgment that "cash flow is good" mainly comes from qualitative brokerage statements, and it is recommended to supplement with annual report accounts receivable details.
• The 2025 annual report discloses that sales to the top five customers were RMB 1,930,979,900 (about RMB 1.931 billion), accounting for 14.56% of annual total sales; the first accounted for 4.49% (RMB 595 million), the second 4.19%, the third 2.78%, the fourth 1.61%, and the fifth 1.49%, with related-party sales of 0 (Source: 2025 annual report "Major Sales Customers" section, verifiable). Historical trend: the share of revenue from the top five customers fell from 31.23% in 2018 to 14.88% in 2024, and further to 14.56% in 2025 (Source: Sohu Finance 2025-12-01). No cross-verifiable data on the share of the top five suppliers was found, marked as a data gap; customer concentration data source is the 2025 annual report, and historical year comparison data source is single (Sohu Finance); specifics should be based on the latest annual report.

Milkyway is positioned in "midstream circulation/services," but by holding scarce Class A hazardous chemicals warehousing assets, it has raised itself one notch from a pure midstream service business toward "quasi-upstream scarce resources": distribution (gross margin 7%-8%) is a business of passive price acceptance between upstream chemical giants and downstream customers, while the real high gross margin lies in MRW regional warehousing (2025 gross margin 39.4%) and contract logistics (16%). In 2025, MRW contributed 20.5% of gross profit with about 6.0% of revenue (revenue RMB 800 million, gross profit RMB 316 million), which is the essential difference from pure freight forwarders/pure traders. The driving paths to further improve gross margin can be grouped into three according to brokerage and company statements: ① warehousing customer structure shifting from traditional chemicals (about 8.6% gross margin) to semiconductors/new energy (about 15.0%); ② recovery in chemical industry prosperity bringing volume and asset utilization recovery; ③ injection of warehousing assets after M&A integration and economies of scale.

III. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The latest financial report is the 2026 interim report (disclosure date 2026-08-13/14), and the current point in this environment is about September 2026. H1 2026 total operating revenue was RMB 7.970 billion, YoY +13.29%; net profit attributable to parent was RMB 381 million, YoY +8.37%; non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent was RMB 347 million, YoY +6.75%; basic EPS was RMB 2.41, YoY +8.56%; net operating cash flow was RMB 201 million, YoY -83.82%. In Q2 2026 alone, revenue was RMB 4.226 billion (YoY +14.44%, QoQ +12.89%), net profit attributable to parent was RMB 197 million (YoY +9.62%, QoQ +6.72%), and non-GAAP was RMB 178 million (YoY +8.68%). 2025 annual report (disclosure date 2026-04-10): revenue RMB 13.335 billion (+10.04%), net profit attributable to parent RMB 627 million (+10.86%), non-GAAP RMB 575 million (+7.89%), net operating cash flow RMB 752 million (+56.11%); in Q4 2025 alone, revenue was RMB 2.665 billion (YoY +3.88%, QoQ -26.69%), net profit attributable to parent was RMB 102 million (YoY +35.82%, QoQ -41.14%); plans RMB 10 per 10 shares (RMB 1.00 per share), with total cash dividend of RMB 158 million based on total share capital of 158,127,600 shares as of 2026-03-31, and dividends + repurchases totaling RMB 199 million, accounting for 31.75% of net profit attributable to parent. 2024: revenue RMB 12.118 billion (+24.26%), net profit attributable to parent RMB 565 million (+31.04%), non-GAAP RMB 533 million (+30.47%), ROE 13.09%, debt-to-asset ratio 65.81%, EPS RMB 3.44-3.45; plans RMB 7.1 per 10 shares. TTM (as of 2026-06-30, stockanalysis.com single-source estimate): revenue about RMB 14.270 billion, net profit about RMB 656 million. The company's official financial report data sources include Jiemian News, China Securities Journal, East Money, Tonghuashun, Shanghai Securities News/China Securities Network, and the figures from multiple media are consistent, with high credibility. Among them, negative details (revenue growth without profit growth, operating cash flow plunging 84%, financial expenses surging 34%) come from a single source, Stockstar, and should be noted.

Revenue growth slowed from +24.26% in 2024 to +10.04% in 2025 and +13.29% in H1 2026; profit growth slowed from +31.04% in 2024 to +10.86% in 2025 and +8.37% in H1 2026, showing a pattern of stepwise slowing growth, revenue growing faster than profit, and QoQ improvement in Q2. H1 2026 net operating cash flow fell 83.82% YoY (down RMB 1.043 billion), and financial expenses surged 34%. Both Jiemian News and Stockstar warned of rapid expansion and cash flow pressure, which are negative signals requiring close attention. Business composition (H1 2026, eastmoney main business composition): integrated logistics RMB 4.155 billion (52.14% of revenue, gross margin 13.81%); chemical trading (MCD differentiated distribution) RMB 3.803 billion (47.72%, gross margin 7.37%); overseas revenue only RMB 205 million (2.58%).

3.2 Earnings Forecast

Consensus forecast for 2026 net profit attributable to parent from about 10 institutions over the past six months: highest RMB 847 million, lowest RMB 707 million, average about RMB 739 million, corresponding to YoY about +17.9%~+18.5% (versus RMB 627 million in 2025), with ratings distributed as 6 Buy, 3 Outperform, 1 Outperform Industry, sourced from Tonghuashun iFinD aggregation, with medium credibility. Detailed 2026 net profit forecasts by institution (Tonghuashun iFinD basis): Shenwan Hongyuan (2026-08-14) Buy RMB 847 million; Zhongtai Securities (2026-08-05/08-06) Buy RMB 801 million; China Post Securities (2026-04-20) Buy RMB 763 million; Guotai Haitong (2026-07-09/10) Outperform RMB 759 million, target price RMB 105.60; Huachuang Securities (2026-08-14) Recommended RMB 753 million, target price RMB 86.50; Huatai Securities (2026-08-17) Buy RMB 742 million, target price RMB 83.53 (earlier target price RMB 73.76); Industrial Securities (2026-08-16) Outperform RMB 734 million; Huayuan Securities (2026-08-18) Buy RMB 727 million; Tianfeng Securities (2026-05-07) Buy RMB 723 million; GF Securities (2026-06-02) Buy RMB 721 million, with another 2026-08-20 report target price RMB 74.63; CICC (2026-08-14) Outperform Industry RMB 712 million, target price RMB 79.14; Zheshang Securities (2026-08-14/09-01) Outperform RMB 707 million, target price RMB 81.20. Only a few institutions separately gave 2027-2028 forecasts: Changjiang Securities (2026-09-07) expects 2026-2028 net profit attributable to parent of RMB 830/960/1.110 billion, corresponding to PE 13.3/11.5/10.0x; GF Securities (2026-08-30) expects 26-28 EPS of RMB 4.15/4.74/5.34, assigns 18x PE for 26, with reasonable value RMB 74.63; Guotai Haitong (2026-07-10) expects 26-28 EPS of RMB 4.80/5.45/6.14, assigns 22x PE for 26, target price RMB 105.60; CICC (2026-01-19) first introduced 2027 net profit attributable to parent of RMB 830 million (+13.0%), maintaining 26/27 PE 13.1x/11.6x, target price RMB 79.14; an unnamed institution (China Finance Network 2026-04-11) raised 26-27 net profit attributable to parent to RMB 810/1.000 billion, introduced 2028 at RMB 1.190 billion, corresponding to EPS RMB 5.1/6.3/7.5, PE 12/9/8x, target price RMB 76.5. All brokerage forecasts, target prices, and PE multiples are third-party research views, not official figures; 2027/2028 were disclosed only by individual institutions and are single-point forecasts, not constituting consensus expectations.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

PE valuation reference: brokerage reports from April to September 2026 repeatedly mentioned that current trading was around 13x 2026 PE and 11-12x 2027 PE (CICC 2026-01-19: 26/27 13.1x/11.6x; Changjiang 2026-09: 13.3/11.5/10.0x). Based on this, the company's dynamic PE in 2026 is roughly in the 12-15x range, a derived value calculated at the time of the research reports, not a real-time precise value, and subject to staleness risk. PB/market cap/real-time share price/dividend yield: this search failed to obtain reliable real-time share price, total market cap, PB, or dividend yield figures (quote pages are JS-rendered, and WebFetch easily returns empty values), data missing, and it is recommended to supplement later with the as-of date noted. Reference share capital data: as of 2025-03-31 total share capital 158,162,900 shares, float 158,127,200 shares; as of 2026-03-31 total share capital 158,127,600 shares. Dividend/yield reference: 2024 proposed RMB 7.1 per 10 shares; 2025 proposed RMB 10 per 10 shares (RMB 1.00 per share), dividends + repurchases totaling 31.75% of net profit. Target price range (consensus over the past six months): highest RMB 105.60 (Guotai Haitong), lowest RMB 73.76 (Huatai early)/RMB 79.14 (CICC), average about RMB 86.2-87.4. Note that target price bases are chaotic, and the same institution's target prices differ significantly across reporting periods (e.g., GF RMB 63.87 -> RMB 74.63, Huachuang RMB 78.40 -> RMB 86.50), some may not be adjusted for the latest share capital/ex-rights, and the latest reports should prevail. Uncertainty note: the current point in this environment is about September 2026, and full-year 2026 data are not yet available; cross-verified real-time share price/market cap/PE(TTM)/PB/dividend yield were not obtained; the 2026 net profit consensus range is wide (RMB 707-847 million, about ±10%), and the number of institutions aggregated by different sources differs slightly (9 vs 10); 2027/2028 forecasts were given separately by only a few institutions and show obvious divergence; H1 2026 operating cash flow -83.82% YoY, financial expenses +34%, and revenue growth without profit growth are negative signals requiring close attention.

IV. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 2026-09-11/12 Resolutions of the 21st Meeting of the Fourth Board of Directors and Notice of the Third Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting of 2026

The 21st meeting of the fourth board of directors (held 2026-09-11, announced 2026-09-12, announcement no. 2026-094) reviewed and approved: a. Adjustment of the 2026 comprehensive bank credit line: from the original "company and subsidiaries combined no more than RMB 14.4 billion" to "no more than RMB 18.2 billion" (an increase of RMB 3.8 billion). b. Adjustment of the 2026 guarantee limit estimate: from no more than RMB 9.81 billion (RMB 98.1 billion) to no more than RMB 14.51 billion (RMB 145.1 billion), an increase of RMB 4.7 billion; after adjustment, no more than RMB 200 million for project bidding/contract performance guarantees and no more than RMB 14.31 billion for credit business guarantees (including guarantees for subsidiaries/associates with debt-to-asset ratio above 70% <= RMB 8.06 billion, and below 70% <= RMB 6.25 billion). c. Request to convene the third extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026. Notice of the third extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 (announcement no. 2026-096): scheduled for 2026-09-29 14:00 on-site + online voting, at Building F1, Yunjing Ecological Community, No. 158 Jinkui Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai. Four proposals to be reviewed: ① "Proposal on Changing Registered Capital and Amending the <Articles of Association>" (special resolution); ② "Proposal on By-Electing Non-Independent Directors of the Fourth Board of Directors"; ③ "Proposal on Adjusting the Company's 2026 Application for Comprehensive Bank Credit Line"; ④ "Proposal on Adjusting the Company's 2026 Guarantee Limit Estimate" (special resolution). The proposals were reviewed and approved at three board meetings (the 19th, 20th, and 21st) on 2026-08-13, 2026-08-18, and 2026-09-11. Note: the exact reason for proposal ① "changing registered capital and amending the articles of association" is not shown in the search fragments, is an inference, and needs confirmation in the original announcement.

4.2 2026-08-13/14 Release of the 2026 Interim Report

H1 2026: operating revenue RMB 7.970 billion, YoY +13.29%; net profit attributable to parent RMB 381 million, YoY +8.37%; non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent RMB 347 million, YoY +6.75%; basic EPS RMB 2.41; weighted ROE 7.92% (another source says 7.81%, a basis difference). Q2 alone: revenue RMB 4.226 billion (YoY +14.44%, QoQ +12.89%); net profit attributable to parent RMB 197 million (YoY +9.62%, QoQ +6.72%). Risk signals: net operating cash flow only RMB 201 million, YoY -83.82%; gross margin 10.85%, YoY -0.61pct; financial expenses RMB 112 million, YoY +34.27%, including exchange losses of RMB 32.5889 million (only RMB 8.7166 million in the same period last year); contract liabilities fell from RMB 5.786 billion at the beginning of the year to RMB 130 million (-97.76%); total assets fell from RMB 20.778 billion at the beginning of the year to RMB 15.759 billion (-24.15%, prepayments from RMB 6.927 billion to RMB 931 million). The company did not propose an interim profit distribution or capital reserve conversion plan. By business: MCD distribution RMB 3.803 billion (47.72%), MGL global international logistics RMB 2.534 billion (31.80%), MCL global contract logistics RMB 1.621 billion (20.34%). Note: single-source details (such as exchange losses precise to ten-thousands and changes in contract liabilities) mainly come from one Stockstar "Stock Encyclopedia" article, and the official interim report should prevail.

4.3 2026-06-17/18 Share Repurchase Implementation Results and Share Changes (Announcement No. 2026-050)

Plan: approved by the board on 2026-05-26 and disclosed in the repurchase report on 2026-05-28; intended to use own funds + commercial bank special repurchase loan, amount RMB 80-120 million, price ceiling RMB 85/share, term within 3 months; purpose for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive. Implementation: first repurchase on 2026-06-04; completed on 2026-06-16. Actual repurchase of 1,812,200 shares, 1.15% of total share capital, transaction price RMB 52.39-59.00/share, average price RMB 55.73/share, actual total payment RMB 100,988,100.97 (about RMB 101 million, excluding fees). All repurchased shares are held in the special repurchase securities account and are intended to be fully used within 36 months after the results announcement, and will be cancelled if not fully used. During the repurchase period, the company's directors, supervisors and senior management, controlling shareholder, actual controller, and shareholders holding more than 5% did not buy or sell the company's shares.

4.4 2026-05-07 2025 Annual Shareholders' Meeting Approved All 11 Proposals

Cailian Press 2026-05-07: the company's 2025 annual shareholders' meeting approved all 11 proposals, including the 2025 annual report, board of directors work report, profit distribution plan, appointment of the 2026 audit institution, directors' and senior executives' compensation, 2026 bank credit line and guarantee limit estimates, the next three-year shareholder dividend return plan, interim dividend arrangements, etc.; the meeting had no rejected proposals.

4.5 2026-04-10 2025 Annual Report Summary

Audit: Tianzhi International Accounting Firm issued a standard unqualified opinion. Dividend proposal: originally announced as "cash dividend of RMB 1.00 per share (tax included)"; based on total share capital of 158,127,620 shares as of 2026-03-31, total cash dividend of RMB 158,127,620. This year's cash dividend (including interim distribution already made) + cash consideration share repurchases totaled RMB 198,932,874, accounting for 31.75% of this year's net profit attributable to parent; of which repurchase and cancellation amount was RMB 134,299,872.62, and cash dividend + repurchase and cancellation totaled RMB 292,427,492.62, accounting for 46.67% of net profit attributable to parent. Quoted 2025 industry conditions: national total social logistics value RMB 368.2 trillion, YoY +5.1%. 2025 company revenue (according to Caitong Securities research report basis) about RMB 13.3 billion. Policy points: on 2025-12-27 the 19th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress voted to pass the "Safety Law of the People's Republic of China on Hazardous Chemicals," effective May 1, 2026 (a regulatory environment change for the company's main hazardous chemicals logistics business, with third-party logistics penetration and industry concentration expected to increase).

4.6 2025-12-20 Shareholder Reduction Results (Announcement No. 2025-097)

Shareholder "Beijing Junlian Maolin Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership)" (shares obtained before IPO) terminated the reduction plan early and completed implementation: cumulative reduction of 1,616,613 shares (1.02% of total share capital, including 1,560,613 shares via centralized bidding and 56,000 shares via block trades), reduction period 2025-10-13 to 2025-12-19, price range RMB 54.53-62.01/share, total reduction amount RMB 96,455,415.80; after the reduction, shareholding was 0 shares (0%). Before the reduction, this shareholder was not a controlling shareholder, not a shareholder holding more than 5%, and not a director, supervisor, or senior executive.

4.7 2025-03-07 "Improving Quality, Increasing Efficiency and Rewarding Returns" Action Plan (Announcement No. 2025-015)

Strategic points: nationwide seven major cluster layout has taken shape; building a second growth curve around clean energy; has formally entered the bulk hazardous chemicals vessel transportation market (plans to expand capacity through newbuildings/leasing/purchasing); launched globalization, consolidating Asia-Pacific and extending to North America and Europe (self-built teams, M&A of core assets, "MW+" joint venture model).

4.8 Other Matters

2025-10-29 9th meeting of the fourth board of directors (announcement no. 2025-089) reviewed the 2025 Q3 report. Around 2026-05-07, there were routine announcements on "providing guarantees for controlled subsidiaries" (Agricultural Bank of China Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone Lingang Branch, China CITIC Bank Shanghai Branch, etc.), with external guarantee balance of about RMB 4.37 billion (2025-12-20 basis) — a high-frequency routine matter. Brokerage views (not announcements, only background): 2026-08-14 Shenwan Hongyuan "Buy", 2026-08-17 Zheshang Securities initiated "Outperform" (target price RMB 81.2), 2026-08-18 Southwest Securities and others published interim report comments, all emphasizing "All in AI" and the second curve of semiconductor logistics. Note: institutional research reports are single-institution views, not company announcements, and should not be confused with disclosed information.

4.9 Items Not Covered/To Be Supplemented This Time

2026 M&A/acquisition announcements: no clear target or progress was found, and it cannot be confirmed whether there were new 2026 M&A deals; there is only a strategic-level statement of "obtaining customers/qualifications through M&A" (from brokerage research reports), which does not constitute an announced transaction. Latest increases/decreases, equity pledges, and unlock situations of other shareholders in 2026 (other than Junlian Maolin): not searched. Latest September 2026 "main capital net inflow/outflow" and other capital-side data: not searched (belongs to technical/capital-side perspective, outside the scope of this task). Exact cause of proposal ① "changing registered capital" at the third extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 (convertible bond conversion/repurchase cancellation/incentive grant): pending confirmation in the original announcement.

V. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

The research notes can only confirm the target is Milkyway (603713, Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board), and sporadically show price and capital fragments such as "RMB 64.61, -3.68%, turnover RMB 9.8541 million, main capital net outflow RMB 308,700, July 1 main capital net buy RMB 28.5867 million," but these fragments do not mark the corresponding trading day and mostly come from quote page titles, so the timing and basis cannot be verified; at the same time, the notes do not provide MA, BOLL, 52-week highs/lows, turnover rate, normal turnover range, shareholder concentration, or institutional holdings and other key technical and liquidity data. Therefore, this section can only present the data that have appeared in a limited way, cannot give a complete technical judgment, and even less can derive reliable key price levels or scenario probabilities from it. If supplementation is needed later, it is recommended to add: the latest trading day closing price and date, recent 20/60-day moving averages and Bollinger Band values, recent 52-week highs/lows, recent 5-20 day turnover and turnover rate series, and the top ten shareholders and institutional holdings from the latest periodic report (with reporting period noted).

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, For Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario deduction based on the existing scattered data in these notes, in which price, turnover, and capital data do not mark the corresponding trading day and the timing cannot be verified, and multiple technical and liquidity data are missing. Therefore, it does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it constitute a basis for judging future trends.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week's Scenarios (Subjective Weighting, Not Statistical Probability)

• Range-bound consolidation (subjective weighting judgment: medium (this weight is a subjective heuristic judgment based on currently scattered data, not a statistical probability)): If the subsequent price fluctuates slightly around RMB 64.61 shown in the notes fragment and turnover remains around the ten-million level without significant expansion, a consolidation pattern may appear. Trigger and verification conditions: turnover does not expand effectively, no new catalyst news, and the sector overall is stable. Due to the lack of moving average and Bollinger Band values, this scenario cannot give a specific price range.
• Weaker downside (subjective weighting judgment: medium (subjective heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability)): If subsequent trading days see a volume-driven decline and a break below the recent low area corresponding to RMB 64.61 shown in the notes fragment, a weaker trend may continue. Trigger conditions: single-day decline expands and turnover clearly expands versus the recent normal range, or main capital continues to show net outflow (such as continuing in the net outflow direction appearing in the notes fragment). Due to the lack of Bollinger lower band and 52-week low, the downside target range cannot be reliably defined until data are supplemented.
• Rebound and strengthening (subjective weighting judgment: low (subjective heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability)): If volume-driven upward movement appears and the price effectively stands above the recent dense moving average area, a rebound may unfold. Trigger conditions: trading volume needs to clearly expand versus the recent normal range, accompanied by positive catalysts at the sector or company level (such as announcement-type information related to "improving quality, increasing efficiency and rewarding returns" mentioned in the notes), and it needs to effectively break through the resistance area formed by moving averages/Bollinger upper band — the value of this resistance area is currently missing and needs to be defined after supplementing data.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Liquidity and chip background: the research notes contain only two liquidity-related fragments — one is "turnover RMB 9.8541 million," and the other is "main capital net outflow RMB 308,700" and "July 1 main capital net buy RMB 28.5867 million." The first two do not mark the corresponding trading day, and the latter is marked as July 1 but without the year, so it is impossible to confirm the reporting period or trading day sequence to which they belong, nor to judge the recent normal turnover range and turnover rate level from them. The notes do not provide turnover rate data, do not provide the recent turnover range, do not provide top ten shareholder concentration, and do not provide public fund/social security/QFII and other institutional holdings, so chip concentration and institutional participation cannot be assessed; relevant shareholder structure data are usually disclosed quarterly and are clearly lagging, and even if supplemented later, the reporting period must be noted and it must be warned that the structure may have changed. Based on the data that have appeared, if single-day turnover is indeed at the ten-million level and the float is not small, then in actual trading the order book may be relatively thin, and the impact and slippage risk of large orders on prices may be relatively higher, but this judgment holds only on the premise that the turnover fragment is true and corresponds to this stock, and current evidence is insufficient to confirm it.

Capital verification signal: because the research notes do not provide the normal range for the stock's recent turnover, specific thresholds cannot be calibrated; after supplementing the daily turnover series for the past 20 trading days, a verifiable standard can be set: "if single-day turnover continues to expand to more than 1.5-2x the recent normal average (expressed as the actually calculated amount range at that time), it can be regarded as a capital entry signal." Currently no specific amount threshold is given.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)

• Watch whether the closing price of the latest trading day and its corresponding date can be supplemented later, to replace the RMB 64.61 fragment with unclear timing in this section; this is the premise for defining all key price levels.
• Watch whether turnover can escape the ten-million level shown in the notes fragment and continue to expand — before supplementing the recent turnover series, the specific threshold for this signal cannot be calibrated, and a fixed amount should not be mechanically applied.
• Watch whether the direction of main capital can form a consistent multi-day sequence (the net outflow and single-day net buy fragments in the notes point in opposite directions, so the trend cannot currently be judged).
• The above are all observation ideas based on existing data, not operational instructions; missing data items should not be used as a basis for buying or selling before they are filled in.

The above scenario deduction is based on scattered price, turnover, and capital data in these notes that do not mark the corresponding trading day, as well as subjective heuristic judgments under missing conditions; short-term stock prices are also disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital, and the overall market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, and this section also does not obtain complete moving average, Bollinger Band, 52-week high/low, turnover rate, and shareholder structure data. Therefore, it does not constitute a guarantee of actual future trends, nor does it constitute buying or selling advice. Please combine the latest market information, judge independently, and bear investment risk yourself.

VI. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The company belongs to the hazardous chemicals (chemical products) logistics and warehousing industry, and is also involved in chemical distribution. China's chemical logistics market grew from RMB 2.05 trillion in 2020 to RMB 2.44 trillion in 2024, CAGR 4.45%; in 2025 it fell 7.4% to about RMB 2.3 trillion, only 0.9% higher than 2021 (the two values come from different brokerage bases: Huayuan Securities/Changjiang Securities, with consistent magnitude, and neither is official statistics). National total social logistics value (macro reference, with official background): 2024 RMB 360.6 trillion (+5.8%); 2025 RMB 368.2 trillion (+5.1%) (Source: China Securities Journal 2025-04-15 publishing the 2024 annual report, East Money core themes). Global semiconductor logistics market in 2025 was about USD 79.32 billion; China's semiconductor logistics market was about USD 12.03-21.11 billion (about RMB 80-150 billion) (Source: Changjiang Securities 2026-09-07, estimated figures, not official statistics, and the range is wide).

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• The competitive landscape is extremely fragmented: "the hazardous chemicals logistics industry still presents a 'small, scattered, weak' pattern," and brokerages roughly calculated 2024 CR3 at only 0.62% (Huayuan Securities 2026-02-09, explicitly marked as "rough calculation," not official statistics, and should be cited cautiously)
• Supply-side barriers are rising: since 2017, multiple regulations have been intensively introduced, raising entry thresholds from multiple dimensions including safety standards, vehicle governance, and qualification approval; after 2018, the growth rate of hazardous chemicals warehouse area continued to decline
• Key industry policy: the "Safety Law on Hazardous Chemicals" officially took effect on May 1, 2026, further strengthening chemical park certification, safe distances of storage facilities, and business licensing requirements (Huachuang Securities). There are also multiple earlier policies: January 2024 "Three-Year Action Plan for Tackling Key Problems in Work Safety (2024-2026)," March 2024 "Guiding Catalog of Key Matters for Safety Production Law Enforcement Inspection of Hazardous Chemicals Enterprises in 2024" (32 items), November 2024 "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Logistics Costs Across Society" (target: total social logistics cost/GDP down to about 13.5% by 2027)
• Quantification of scarce resources: there are 108 third-party chemical warehouse zones nationwide, including Class A 384,400 m², Class B 584,800 m², and Class C 1,062,000 m², with Class A accounting for only about 19%, the scarcest type (Hazardous Chemicals Logistics Branch 2025 survey data, cited by Huachuang Securities, original report not directly verified)
• Company resource reserves: as of the end of 2025, "more than 700,000 square meters of professional chemical warehouses built and managed globally," with Caitong Securities stating "more than 700,000 square meters" in H1 2026; basis evolution: the 2024 annual report stated "more than 600,000 square meters," rising to 700,000 square meters in 2025; note that this is a cross-year basis change for the same indicator, and should not be simply subtracted as newly added supply (Source: 2025 annual report summary, 2025 annual report "improving quality, increasing efficiency and rewarding returns" announcement)
• Warehousing area comparison (Huachuang Securities 2026-08-14): Milkyway built and managed more than 700,000 square meters, up 75% from about 400,000 square meters in 2020; over the same period, compared with Hongchuan Smart 159,000 square meters and Hengjida Xin 65,500 square meters (comparison figures cited by a single brokerage, not endorsed by company announcements, and are second-hand data)
• Nine major warehouse types: covering all categories of ordinary goods, Class A, Class B, and Class C, with multi-temperature zones, explosion-proof, and clean functions; full coverage of 9 categories of hazardous chemicals (Changjiang Securities statement)
• Network layout: seven global war zones — Shanghai, South (Guangzhou/Dongguan/Shenzhen/Huizhou/Zhanjiang/Fangchenggang/Xiamen/Fuzhou/Quanzhou), North (Tianjin/Dalian/Yingkou), Shandong (Qingdao/Yantai), West (Chengdu/Xi'an/Chongqing/Kunming), Yangtze River (Zhenjiang/Nanjing/Zhangjiagang/Lianyungang/Changsha/Jingzhou), and Asia-Pacific; overseas subsidiaries in the United States, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea
• Transport capacity assets: continuous investment in tank containers (the main driver of MGM 2025 revenue +37.8%); self-built tank container yard network provides 24-hour tank container technical services; has formally entered the bulk hazardous chemicals vessel transportation market and plans to expand capacity through newbuildings, leasing, and purchase of existing vessels (2025-03-07 "improving quality, increasing efficiency and rewarding returns" announcement)
• Side effects of capacity expansion: in Q4 2025, some newly commissioned warehouses entered the depreciation period and became a drag on performance (Huatai Securities 2026-04-11)

6.3 Major Competitors

Milkyway operates in the hazardous chemicals logistics and warehousing industry with a "logistics + commerce" integrated trade-logistics model, establishing physical barriers by holding scarce Class A hazardous chemicals warehousing assets (more than 700,000 square meters of built and managed area, end-2025 basis), distinguishing it from pure freight forwarders/pure traders; in 2025 MRW regional warehousing contributed 20.5% of gross profit with about 6.0% of revenue, with gross margin 39.4%, the core profit pillar. Compared with comparables Hongchuan Smart (159,000 square meters) and Hengjida Xin (65,500 square meters), Milkyway's warehousing area scale is significantly ahead, but the above comparison figures are cited by a single brokerage, not endorsed by company announcements, and are second-hand data. The industry is extremely fragmented, and brokerages roughly calculated 2024 CR3 at only 0.62% (Huayuan Securities 2026-02-09, explicitly marked as rough calculation, not official statistics, and should be cited cautiously). The company's customer structure is shifting from traditional chemicals to new energy and semiconductors (H1 2026 revenue/gross profit contribution from new energy and chip semiconductor customers reached 21%/29% respectively, estimated gross margin about 15.0%, higher than 8.6% for traditional chemical customers, Caitong Securities 2026-09-09 single brokerage estimate). Overall, the company is positioned in midstream circulation/services, but through scarce hazardous chemicals warehousing assets it has raised itself one notch toward "quasi-upstream scarce resources." Further gross margin improvement depends on warehousing customer structure upgrading, asset utilization recovery from chemical prosperity recovery, and economies of scale from M&A integration. Among the above peer financial data, except for Milkyway, all are second-hand citations or single sources; specifics should be based on the latest annual reports.

VII. Risk Warnings

• Risk of sharp deterioration in operating cash flow and "revenue growth without profit growth": H1 2026 net operating cash flow was only RMB 201 million, YoY -83.82%, and 2026Q1 operating cash flow was about -RMB 48.2891 million (-RMB 0.31/share); over the same period, net profit attributable to parent was only +8.37% YoY and revenue +13.29% YoY, while financial expenses surged 34% YoY (exchange losses expanded from RMB 8.7166 million to RMB 32.5889 million). If expansionary capital occupation and exchange fluctuations continue, the company's profit quality and self-funding capacity may come under further pressure.
• Risk that depreciation of newly invested capacity erodes warehousing gross margin: in Q4 2025, some newly commissioned warehouses began depreciation and newly leased warehouses were added, causing cost growth to significantly exceed revenue growth, and MRW regional warehousing gross margin has therefore fallen 4.9 percentage points to 39.4%. MRW is the company's core pillar contributing 20.5% of gross profit with about 6.0% of revenue; if subsequent new warehouse ramp-up falls short of expectations and utilization remains low, the high-margin "ballast stone" will continue to be eroded.
• Risk of dependence on the chemical industry cycle for customer and cargo volume prosperity: the company's MCD distribution gross margin is only 7.37%, a passive price taker in bulk trade; MGF international freight forwarding revenue fell 0.1% YoY in 2025 due to tariff policies and YoY declines in sea and air freight rates; China's chemical logistics market fell 7.4% in 2025 to about RMB 2.3 trillion, only 0.9% higher than 2021, and the 2025 average CCPI fell 24.1% from the 2022 average. If chemical prosperity remains sluggish, the company's logistics cargo volume and distribution spreads will come under simultaneous pressure, and the 2025 revenue growth of +10.04% (versus +24.26% in 2024) already shows signs of slowing.
• Risk of M&A goodwill, high debt ratio, and expanding guarantee exposure: as of 2025-03-31, goodwill reached RMB 1.473 billion and debt-to-asset ratio was 68.33%; in September 2026 the company raised the annual comprehensive bank credit line from no more than RMB 14.4 billion to RMB 18.2 billion, and the guarantee limit from RMB 9.81 billion to RMB 14.51 billion (including guarantees for subsidiaries/associates with debt-to-asset ratio above 70% of no more than RMB 8.06 billion), with external guarantee balance of about RMB 4.37 billion (2025-12-20 basis). If the operations or integration of guaranteed subsidiaries fall short of expectations, goodwill impairment and guarantee compensation risks will directly hit the income statement.
• Risk that the pace of realizing the semiconductor second curve is uncertain and the estimate basis comes from a single brokerage: H1 2026 revenue/gross profit contribution from new energy and chip semiconductor customers was 21%/29%, with estimated gross margin about 15.0% (higher than 8.6% for traditional chemical customers). This data comes from a single brokerage estimate by Caitong Securities, not the company's disclosed basis; the semiconductor logistics base (Tianjin Xiqing) has been in operation for a relatively short time and customer certification cycles are long. If the second curve scales more slowly than expected, the pull-through effect of revenue structure switching on overall gross margin may be offset by weakness in traditional chemical business.
• Policy compliance and safety operation risk: the company's main business is hazardous chemicals warehousing and transportation, subject to multiple regulations including the "Safety Law on Hazardous Chemicals" (effective May 1, 2026) and the "Three-Year Action Plan for Tackling Key Problems in Work Safety (2024-2026)," with tightening chemical park certification, safe distances of storage facilities, and business licensing requirements. The company has built and manages more than 700,000 square meters of chemical warehouses and covers all 9 categories of hazardous goods; any safety or environmental accident could trigger suspension for rectification, qualification restrictions, and reputational damage, and the scarcity of Class A hazardous chemicals warehousing also means higher regulatory attention.
• Trading risk caused by missing technical and liquidity data: existing materials only sporadically show fragments such as "RMB 64.61, -3.68%, turnover RMB 9.8541 million, main capital net outflow RMB 308,700" without marked trading days, and do not provide moving averages, Bollinger Bands, 52-week highs/lows, turnover rate, or recent normal turnover range. If single-day turnover remains at the ten-million level for a long time while the float is not small, a thin order book may lead to higher impact costs and slippage for large trades; before data are supplemented, fixed price levels should not be used as a trading basis.

VIII. Conclusion and Outlook

In terms of growth logic, the company's core asset is scarce Class A hazardous chemicals warehousing resources: as of the end of 2025 it had built and managed more than 700,000 square meters of professional chemical warehouses, compared with comparable Hongchuan Smart at about 159,000 square meters and Hengjida Xin at about 65,500 square meters over the same period (single brokerage cited data). In 2025 revenue was RMB 13.335 billion (+10.04%) and net profit attributable to parent was RMB 627 million (+10.86%), still achieving double growth against the backdrop of a downturn in chemical industry prosperity and a 7.4% decline in China's chemical logistics market in 2025, relying on expansion into new Southeast Asian/Northeast Asian markets and customer structure switching to new energy and semiconductors. Looking ahead, the gross margin improvement path can be summarized in three points: warehousing customers shifting from traditional chemicals to semiconductors/new energy, recovery in chemical prosperity driving cargo volume and asset utilization recovery, and injection of warehousing assets after M&A integration and economies of scale. Over the past six months, the consensus average 2026 net profit attributable to parent from about 10 institutions was about RMB 739 million (range RMB 707-847 million, corresponding to YoY about +17.9%~+18.5%), with ratings distributed as 6 Buy, 3 Outperform, 1 Outperform Industry, but 2027/2028 forecasts were single-point forecasts from only a few institutions and showed obvious divergence (Changjiang Securities RMB 960 million vs GF about RMB 750 million), not constituting consensus expectations.

What needs to be balanced is that the company is currently in a stage of "profit and cash flow mismatch" during expansion investment: H1 2026 operating cash flow -83.82% YoY, 2026Q1 operating cash flow -RMB 0.31/share (about -RMB 48.2891 million), contract liabilities fell sharply from RMB 5.786 billion at the beginning of the year to RMB 130 million, and total assets fell from RMB 20.778 billion to RMB 15.759 billion (single-source basis, subject to the official interim report); at the same time, M&A-driven expansion brought goodwill of RMB 1.473 billion (as of 2025-03-31) and debt-to-asset ratio of 68.33%, and some newly commissioned warehouses entering depreciation in Q4 2025 have become a drag on performance. Revenue and profit growth slowed from +24.26%/+31.04% in 2024 to +13.29%/+8.37% in H1 2026, and combined with the large upward adjustment in credit and guarantee limits, this shows that while the company is "trading assets for growth," short-term financial flexibility is being consumed.

Overall, the company's medium- to long-term appeal lies in whether scarce hazardous chemicals warehousing assets and semiconductor/new energy customer structure upgrading can continue to translate into gross margin and cash flow improvement, while the verification window for observation lies in: whether the depreciation pressure of newly invested capacity can be covered by improved warehousing utilization, whether operating cash flow can return to normal, and whether the expansion of credit and guarantee exposure is accompanied by corresponding asset returns. At the industry level, the "Safety Law on Hazardous Chemicals" taking effect on May 1, 2026, and the extremely fragmented landscape with industry CR3 of only about 0.62% (brokerage rough calculation, not official statistics) are theoretically conducive to leading companies with compliance and asset advantages increasing share, but the pace of realization depends on chemical prosperity recovery and policy enforcement. The above judgments are all based on currently disclosed data and third-party research reports and do not constitute any buying or selling advice.

Data Sources

• 603713 Milkyway
• Milkyway (603713) - Compass Market Network - Index Display
• Milkyway (603713.SH) In-depth F9-PC_HSF9 Materials
• China Securities Journal - Milkyway Intelligent Supply Chain Service Group Co., Ltd. - Company Code: 603713 Company Abbreviation: Milkyway
• Milkyway (603713): Chemical Main Business Prosperity Recovery, Pan-Semiconductor Logistics Builds Second Curve
• Milkyway (603713): Chemical Logistics Leader, Semiconductor Business Opens Second Growth Curve
• [Milkyway Intelligent Supply Chain Service Group Co., Ltd. Announcement on the "Improving Quality,