Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. (688126)

Equity Research Report | Sector: Semiconductor Silicon Wafers | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Close as of September 11, 2026 (most recent trading day; weekly review published 2026-09-12)

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

The most critical contradiction facing National Silicon Industry Group (NSIG) currently is "high revenue growth but continued widening losses": in H1 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 2.317 billion, up 36.51% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders showed a loss of RMB 965 million, with the loss widening by approximately 163.32% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders excluding non-recurring items showed a loss of RMB 958 million. The company's full-year 2025 revenue was RMB 3.716 billion, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.508 billion, indicating that scale expansion has not yet translated into profitability improvement.

Revenue growth was primarily driven by 300mm wafer volume ramp-up. In H1 2026, 300mm wafer sales volume increased by over 90% year-on-year, with revenue growing approximately 57% year-on-year. Combined 300mm capacity at Shanghai and Taiyuan has reached 1 million wafers/month, and the company expects to reach 1.2 million wafers/month by end-2026. However, "volume up, price down" persists currently, with average wafer prices at relatively low levels, expansion projects entering verification and ramp-up phases bringing cost pressure, and the digestion of high-cost inventory from prior years resulting in asset impairment of approximately RMB 120 million.

The profit side remains pressured by relatively high R&D, financial, and manufacturing costs. In H1 2026, R&D expenses were RMB 259 million, up 66.52% year-on-year, with R&D investment as a percentage of revenue rising to 11.17%; the depreciation of the euro against the renminbi increased financial expenses by approximately RMB 200 million year-on-year, with overseas businesses such as Okmetic affected by foreign exchange factors. Although net cash flow from operating activities turned positive at RMB 179 million from negative RMB 462 million in the prior-year period, and gross margin improved year-on-year to negative 8.34%, the net margin remained at negative 44.43%, and profit recovery has not yet been validated by financial results.

As of September 11, 2026, the company's stock price closed at RMB 22.12, with total market capitalization of approximately RMB 73.107 billion, price-to-book ratio of approximately 3.77x, and a negative price-to-earnings ratio due to sustained losses. Technically, the stock price is below short- and medium-term moving averages, with moving averages in a bearish alignment and MACD below the zero line; over the past 20 and 60 days, the stock declined 10.90% and 22.10% respectively, with main capital continuously flowing out during the same period, and short-term market performance weaker than the improvement in price recovery expectations embedded in fundamentals.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• 300mm semiconductor silicon wafers: Full-year 2025 revenue RMB 2.439 billion, accounting for 65.62%, gross margin -14.99%
• 200mm and below semiconductor silicon wafers: Full-year 2025 revenue RMB 1.125 billion, accounting for 30.28%, gross margin -23.37%
• Entrusted processing services: Full-year 2025 revenue RMB 115.3 million, accounting for 3.10%, gross margin -22.05%
• Other (supplementary): Full-year 2025 revenue RMB 36.84 million, accounting for 0.99%, gross margin 54.20%
• Product Matrix: Covering 300mm, 200mm and below sizes, including polished wafers, epitaxial wafers, SOI wafers, and heterogeneous wafers such as piezoelectric thin-film substrate materials; downstream applications include memory, logic, silicon photonics, image processing, general-purpose processors, power, RF, analog, discrete, etc.
• Main Business Positioning (original text from 2025 Annual Report): R&D, production and sales of semiconductor silicon wafers and other high-end semiconductor materials; the company describes itself as "one of the largest, most technologically comprehensive, and most internationally-oriented semiconductor silicon wafer enterprises in China." Semiconductor silicon wafers are key foundational materials for integrated circuits, discrete devices, sensors and other products. Source: 2025 Annual Report Summary (Shanghai Securities News 2026-04-17; cninfo PDF)
• 2025 by industry: Semiconductor silicon wafers RMB 3.679 billion (99.01%, gross margin -17.78%); by region: Domestic China RMB 2.673 billion (71.92%, gross margin -15.19%), Other countries and regions RMB 1.006 billion (27.08%, gross margin -24.64%)
• H1 2026-06-30: Semiconductor silicon wafers RMB 2.239 billion (96.63%, gross margin -9.03%, significantly narrowed vs. full-year 2025); entrusted processing RMB 55.69 million (2.40%, -7.63%); other RMB 22.34 million (0.96%, +59.28%). By region: Mainland China RMB 1.825 billion (78.75%); Outside China RMB 492.4 million (21.25%)
• Customer System (annual report disclosure): International customers include TSMC, UMC, STMicroelectronics, Vishay, etc.; domestic customers include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Resources Microelectronics, etc.; products sold to North America, Europe, Mainland China, and other parts of Asia. The clc.cn page additionally lists GlobalFoundries, Hua Li Microelectronics, Yangtze Memory Technologies, Wuhan Xinxin, NXP, etc.

2.3 Industry Chain Upstream/Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Currency is RMB. 2024 data source: Sina Finance, China Fund News, Jiemian News, Beijing Business Today (2025-04-23/24), also disclosed gross margin -8.98%, debt-to-asset ratio 34.40%, diluted EPS -0.35. 2025 data source: Company 2025 Annual Report Summary (Shanghai Securities News/Sina/Securities Star transcription), East Money, Securities Times (2026-04-16~19), also disclosed total profit RMB -1.889 billion, net cash flow from operating activities RMB -559 million, debt-to-asset ratio 40.33%, net assets attributable to shareholders RMB 16.925 billion, R&D investment as % of revenue 9.52% (+1.64pct), including goodwill impairment of approximately RMB 400 million. In 2025 media, two figures appeared: RMB -1.81 billion (net profit, including minority interests) and RMB -1.508 billion (attributable), do not confuse. H1 2026 data source: Company H1 2026 Report (East Money, China Securities Journal, Securities Star, China Fund News transcription, 2026-08-19/20), also disclosed net cash flow from operating activities +RMB 179 million (turned positive), gross margin -8.34% (improved 4.76pct YoY), R&D expense ratio 11.17% (+2.01pct YoY), net margin -44.43% (-13.83pct YoY), EPS (fully diluted) -0.292; by quarter 2026Q1 revenue RMB 1.084 billion (+35.22%), net profit attributable to shareholders RMB -483 million, 2026Q2 revenue RMB 1.233 billion (YoY +37.68%, QoQ +13.79%), net profit attributable to shareholders RMB -482 million. 2023 data source is multi-source cross-verified, no YoY data provided.

The company has been continuously loss-making with widening losses, and has been loss-making on an ex-non-recurring basis for approximately 3.5 years. Revenue growth is primarily driven by 300mm wafer sales volume (H1 2026 volume +90%+ YoY), but "volume up, price down," high depreciation and R&D/financial expenses are suppressing profits. The company's stated reasons for H1 2026 losses include: wafer average prices still at stage lows (volume growth not fully offsetting price), three major projects under construction entering verification/ramp-up phases increasing costs, increased R&D investment, euro exchange rate fluctuations causing foreign exchange losses that pushed up financial expenses (H1 financial expenses +RMB 202 million YoY), and high-cost inventory impairment of approximately RMB 120 million.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Unless otherwise noted, all from various brokerage research reports, representing single-brokerage forecasts, not multi-brokerage consensus. Guosen Securities (2026-09-03, maintained "Outperform"): lowered 2026-2028 net profit attributable to shareholders to RMB 101/180/286 million (previous: RMB 166/248/309 million), corresponding to 2026-08-26 stock price PS of 15.7/12.5/11.3x respectively; the 2026-04-21 version had given 2026-2027 net profit attributable of RMB 166/248 million and 2028 of RMB 309 million, and is the only institution giving a "profitable in 2026" forecast. CICC (2026-05-01): introduced 2026/2027 revenue of RMB 5.217/6.706 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB -1.511/-0.961 billion, switched to PB valuation, current market cap corresponds to 4.4/4.7x 26/27e P/B. China Post Securities (2026-06-11, maintained "Buy"): estimated 2026/2027/2028 revenue of RMB 4.7/5.6/6.8 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB -1.3/-0.9/-0.4 billion. BOC International (2026-09-01, maintained "Overweight"): 2026E EPS -0.20, 2027E -0.10, 2028E -0.10. Northeast Securities: 2026E EPS -0.21, 2027E -0.08, 2028E +0.04. Dongxing Securities (2026-04-22): 2026E EPS -0.11, 2027E -0.05, 2028E +0.02. East Money "Earnings Forecast" consensus (as of approximately 2026-09, excerpted from emweb.securities.eastmoney.com/ProfitForecast): EPS 2025A -0.4561, 2026E -0.1780 (5 firms), 2027E -0.0920 (5 firms), 2028E -0.0160 (5 firms); net assets per share 2025A RMB 5.1204, 2026E RMB 5.0580, 2027E RMB 4.9660, 2028E RMB 4.9480 (5 firms). In the consensus, 2026-2028 net profit attributable remains at a loss, with only a few institutions (Guosen) forecasting a turnaround to profit in 2026, indicating significant divergence. The 2026 net profit attributable forecast range spans from approximately +RMB 101 million (Guosen) to -RMB 1.511 billion (CICC), an extremely wide range.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

Because the company remains loss-making, dynamic PE is negative and not meaningful for reference; institutions generally switch to P/B or P/S valuation. Market cap and stock price: 2026-08-19 close (evening of H1 report disclosure) stock price RMB 26.70, total market cap approximately RMB 88.244 billion (source: East Money reposted article); BOC International research report records 2026-09-01 report date closing price of RMB 23.45; indicating stock price fluctuated in the RMB 23-27 range from late August to early September (price differences from different sources are due to different dates, should be understood by date). Valuation multiples (from third-party analysis article mobile.aigupiao.com, non-official, at stock price of approximately RMB 27.81): PS(TTM) approximately 22.99x, PB approximately 5.46x; its horizontal comparison states global peers SUMCO 3-5x, Shin-Etsu 4-6x, GlobalWafers 5-7x, domestic growth stocks PS 10-30x, concluding that the company's PS is at the high end among global peers and PB is above the median of STAR 50 constituents; this is a single-source, commentary-section analysis, use with caution. Reference: based on 2025 revenue of RMB 3.716 billion and end-2025 net assets attributable to shareholders of RMB 16.925 billion, at the above market cap, static P/S is approximately 23-24x and P/B approximately 5x, consistent with the above and can serve as cross-validation. Uncertainties/data limitations to note: 1) The company is continuously loss-making with widening losses, PE is ineffective, different institutions choose between PB/PS differently, and valuation center judgments diverge greatly (CICC target price RMB 23 vs. Goldman Sachs target price RMB 17.1, direction from "upside" to "sell"); 2) Earnings forecast divergence is extreme, 2026 net profit attributable forecast range from approximately +RMB 101 million (Guosen) to -RMB 1.511 billion (CICC), all brokerage forecasts except East Money consensus are single-source, no third-party review seen; 3) "Net profit" vs. "net profit attributable to shareholders" basis differences, in 2025 media two figures appeared: RMB -1.81 billion (net profit including minority interests) and RMB -1.508 billion (attributable), basis must be noted when citing; 4) Goldman Sachs target price related information source is a secondary reposted article, and its stock price/date contradicts original data, reliability questionable, separately flagged; 5) Valuation multiples (PS 22.99x, PB 5.46x) from third-party analysis article, not exchange/official disclosure, single source only, recommend self-verification using latest closing price and disclosed net assets/revenue; 6) Some financial figures from media transcription (Sina, East Money, Securities Star, etc.), core data (revenue, net profit attributable, net profit excluding non-recurring items) cross-verified across 3+ sources, relatively high credibility, but amounts precise to individual digits should still be based on the company's original annual/H1 report PDFs disclosed on SSE. This summary's data is as of early September 2026 public information; market-related figures are highly time-sensitive, please note corresponding dates when citing.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 H1 2026 Report: Revenue RMB 2.317 Billion, Up 36.51% YoY; Net Loss Attributable to Shareholders RMB 965 Million

NSIG disclosed its H1 2026 report after market close on August 19, 2026. Operating revenue RMB 2.317 billion (RMB 2,317,244,800), +36.51% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders RMB -965 million (RMB -965,151,900), prior-year period RMB -367 million (RMB -366,538,200), loss widened approximately 163.32% YoY; net profit attributable excluding non-recurring items RMB -958 million (RMB -957,632,600); total profit RMB -1.016 billion (RMB -1,015,709,800); basic EPS -0.292; net cash flow from operating activities +RMB 179 million (RMB 178,987,500), prior-year period RMB -462 million, turned positive. Net assets attributable to shareholders RMB 19.390 billion (RMB 19,389,707,300), +14.56% vs. end of prior year; total assets RMB 38.212 billion (RMB 38,211,632,300), +13.10%. Main reasons for widened losses (company's stated basis): ① Persistent R&D investment in 300mm wafers and 300mm SOI, R&D investment increased by approximately RMB 100 million; ② Euro depreciation against RMB causing foreign exchange losses, financial expenses increased by approximately RMB 200 million YoY (financial expenses changed from RMB -24,394,000 in prior-year period to RMB +177,704,300); ③ Unit price decline YoY + high-cost inventory from prior years awaiting digestion, asset impairment losses increased by approximately RMB 120 million. R&D expenses RMB 259 million (RMB 258,922,600), +66.52% YoY; R&D investment as % of revenue rose to 11.17% (+2.01pct YoY). Segments/subsidiaries (H1 2026): 300mm wafer sales volume increased over 90% YoY, revenue +57% YoY (approximately +RMB 600 million); 200mm and below volume +approximately 16% YoY, revenue only increased less than 5% YoY; entrusted processing services revenue -approximately 22% YoY (weak demand since Q2 2025); Shanghai Xinsheng revenue RMB 1.664 billion, net profit RMB -452 million, Okmetic revenue RMB 362 million, net profit RMB -289 million (affected by euro depreciation), New Access Technology revenue RMB 296 million, net profit RMB -144 million. By region: Mainland China revenue RMB 1.825 billion, outside China RMB 492 million. Capacity: Combined 300mm capacity at Shanghai + Taiyuan has reached 1 million wafers/month, company expects 300mm capacity to reach 1.2 million wafers/month by end-2026. Distribution plan: Board resolution not to distribute profits or convert capital reserves to share capital. Sources (multi-source cross-consistent): SSE announcement/H1 report, China Fund News 2026-08-19, Cailianshe 2026-08-19, National Business Daily/East Money 2026-08-19, Securities Times Online 2026-08-20, Jiemian News 2026-08-19, Securities Star 2026-08-20.

4.2 Director/Supervisor/Senior Management Reduction Plan: Proposed Total Reduction Not Exceeding 0.0334% of Shares

NSIG announced a director/supervisor/senior management share reduction plan on August 24, 2026. Proposed reduction entities and caps: Qiu Ciyun (Director, President) not exceeding 664,500 shares (≤0.0201% of total share capital); Li Wei (Director, Executive Vice President) not exceeding 361,100 shares (≤0.0109%); Chen Taixiang (Executive Vice President) not exceeding 10,000 shares (≤0.0003%); Huang Yan (Financial Vice President, Financial Officer) not exceeding 69,700 shares (≤0.0021%); total not exceeding 1,105,304 shares, not exceeding 0.0334% of total share capital. Reduction method is centralized bidding, reduction period from September 16, 2026 to December 15, 2026, reason is personal funding needs. Sources: 21st Century Business Herald 2026-08-24, China Fund News 2026-08-24, Securities Star 2026-08-24 (three sources consistent).

4.3 Board Secretary Reduction-Related Public Opinion: Investor Interactive Platform Q&A (2026-09-11)

On the investor interactive platform on September 11, 2026, an investor questioned the Board Secretary for "increasing holdings at minimum amounts but actively reducing" and "market rumors that she may not be on duty"; the company replied that the Board Secretary is performing duties normally, and all related increases/decreases are disclosed in accordance with laws and regulations, and this reduction is due to personal funding arrangement. Source: Tonghuashun yuanchuang.10jqka.com.cn 2026-09-11 (c679836229). This is an investor Q&A/company statement, not a formal announcement; note its nature.

4.4 H1 2026 Earnings Briefing: Domestic Wafer Price Recovery Benefits Expected to Gradually Materialize in H2

NSIG's H1 2026 earnings briefing was held on September 11, 2026 from 14:00-15:00 (announcement no. 2026-043, announcement date 2026-08-20, attendees included Qiu Ciyun, Li Wei, Huang Yan, Fang Na). Company key points: In H1 2026, the domestic wafer market gradually stabilized and recovered; the company has conducted price optimization and business negotiations in an orderly manner based on product specifications, application areas, and customer cooperation; expects domestic wafer-related price recovery benefits to gradually materialize in H2 2026; after 300mm wafer prices continued to decline in 2023-2025, domestic prices gradually stabilized and entered an upward channel in H1 2026, with some products that had previously seen larger price cuts beginning to recover; emphasized that price transmission has time lags (customer contract cycles, product specifications, cooperation model differences). Sources: People's Financial News/Securities Times 2026-09-11, Securities Star 2026-09-12.

4.5 Capital Flows and Stock Price Reference (Different-Date Snapshots from Third-Party Media)

On 2026-09-10, main capital net sold RMB 64,451,100 that day (source: Securities Star 2026-09-10, RB2026091000028075). On 2026-08-19, H1 report disclosure date, closing price approximately RMB 26.70, total market cap approximately RMB 88.244 billion (source: National Business Daily/East Money 2026-08-19); as of 2026/08/27, aastocks shows market cap approximately RMB 83.35 billion. Reports state "stock price up over 20% year-to-date" (National Business Daily 2026-08-19). The above market/capital flow data are from third-party media, not exchange or Wind basis, and are different-date snapshots that cannot be spliced into a single point in time.

4.6 Major Asset Restructuring (Issuance of Shares and Payment of Cash to Purchase Assets and Related-Party Transaction) Completed

NSIG acquired minority stakes in Xinsheng Jingtou, Xinsheng Jingke, and Xinsheng Jingrui; after completion of the transaction, achieved higher proportional/wholly-owned control of the Shanghai Xinsheng system. Issuance of shares to purchase assets: issued 447.4 million shares at RMB 15.01/share, actual net proceeds RMB 6.716 billion, registered 2025-11-25; planned total investment RMB 7.04 billion. Matching funds raised: issued 110,440,713 shares at RMB 19.06/share, total raised RMB 2.105 billion (RMB 2,104,999,989.78), net after fees RMB 2.079 billion (RMB 2,078,710,452.32); share registration date/listing date 2025-12-25. Financial advisor: CICC; joint lead underwriters: CICC + CITIC Securities. Sources: Shanghai Securities News/China Securities Journal announcement text, East Money company events page, SSE announcements.

4.7 Concurrent Director/Supervisor/Senior Management Increases (H2 2025) and 2025 Q3 Report (Connecting Information)

In H2 2025, Qiu Ciyun, Li Wei, and Huang Yan increased holdings multiple times in the secondary market, at average transaction prices of approximately RMB 18.74-21.58/share. 2025 Q3 report (announcement date 2025-10-31): First three quarters revenue RMB 2.641 billion (+6.56%), net profit attributable to shareholders RMB -631 million; single quarter Q3 revenue RMB 944 million (+3.79%), net profit attributable to shareholders RMB -265 million. Sources: Shanghai Securities News/China Securities Journal announcement text, East Money company events page, SSE Q3 report PDF.

4.8 Uncertainty and Limitations Statement

1. Timing: This search could not obtain a single "current date"; verifiable latest content is as of 2026-09-12. The reduction window in Section 3, "2026-09-16 to 12-15," is in "planned/not yet started" status at the search time; need to confirm actual execution via latest announcements. 2. Buyback: This search did not find any official announcement of "share buyback" by NSIG in 2026; before completing supplementary search, should not write "company has a buyback plan" in the report. 3. Big Fund/National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, and major institutional shareholders' 2026 increase/decrease activities: This round did not obtain cross-verifiable specific 2026 disclosures, listed as uncovered items, recommend separate follow-up investigation. 4. Reduction public opinion (Board Secretary Q&A) from interactive platform transcription, is company statement not announcement, wording and facts should be cited with caution. 5. Some financial breakdown figures (such as "300mm revenue +57% YoY," "asset impairment +approximately RMB 120 million," "financial expenses +approximately RMB 200 million") are company's "approximate" figures in H1 report/media, not precise values. 6. Capital flows, market cap, stock price are different-date snapshots from third-party media, sources are East Money/Securities Star/aastocks, not exchange authoritative basis, and dates are inconsistent; do not merge into a single point in time. 7. Financial data are all company-disclosed official basis (H1 report), not earnings forecasts/consensus; this summary does not involve analyst target price content.

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

NSIG (688126.SH) closed at RMB 22.12 as of 2026-09-11, down 1.21%, turnover RMB 930 million, turnover rate 1.49%. The company's main business is semiconductor silicon wafers, total market cap RMB 73.107 billion, a large-cap STAR Market stock. Due to company losses, PE is negative with no normal valuation meaning, P/B approximately 3.77x. In terms of price structure, stock price is below all short- and medium-term moving averages, with moving averages in bearish alignment, MACD below zero line; in a clear downtrend over the past 2-3 months (past 20 days -10.90%, past 60 days -22.10%), this week's weekly decline 2.08%, the third consecutive weekly decline. Regarding technical indicators, MA20 and Bollinger Band lines could not obtain definitive values for 9/11; the most recent definitive values available are from investing.com's 8/28 snapshot (at price RMB 24.51: MA5=24.74, MA10=24.80, MA20≈24.48, MA50=25.31, MA200=27.43; RSI(14)=45.66), but this set of values is clearly lagging current price, for directional reference only. On the capital flow side, main capital has net outflow for three consecutive weeks (this week RMB 291 million), cumulative net outflow of RMB 587 million over past 10 days, margin financing outflow for 8 of past 10 days, capital flow weak. Shareholder structure is mainly state-owned/industrial funds and passive index ETFs, with Big Fund Phase I further reducing holdings in Q2 2026, constituting potential supply pressure (shareholder data as of 2026-06-30, lagging). Overall, technical and capital flow aspects are both weak, in a consolidation phase within a downtrend in the short term.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, For Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is solely a subjective scenario projection based on historical prices, technical indicators, and capital flow data, does not constitute investment advice, and does not guarantee future actual movements. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50-60% (subjective experience value, not statistical probability)): Price oscillates within RMB 21.4~23.4 range. Trigger conditions: Turnover maintains recent normal level of RMB 600-900 million, no new stock-specific news, semiconductor sector overall flat, main capital net outflow scale moderates
• Weak downtrend (medium weight, approximately 30% (subjective experience value, not statistical probability)): If effectively breaks below RMB 21.4 with simultaneous turnover expansion, first target looks down to RMB 20 round-number threshold area; if further broken, downside reference is 52-week low RMB 16.61. Trigger conditions: Main capital continued net outflow, sector weakness, Big Fund and other shareholder reduction news
• Rebound strengthening (lower weight (subjective experience value, not statistical probability; specific weight values not provided in research summary)): If volume-confirmed effective breakout above RMB 22.6~23.4 short-term resistance band and holds, expected to recover toward RMB 24.4~25.0 medium-term resistance zone. Trigger conditions: Turnover significantly expands, semiconductor sector overall strengthens, new positive catalysts appear. Research summary did not provide specific probability or more detailed description for this scenario

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Liquidity and shareholder concentration background (data lagging, must note): Top ten free-float shareholders data date 2026-06-30, announcement date 2026-08-20, sources are Sina Finance free-float shareholder page, East Money shareholder research, Sohu Stock, more than two months from September 11, structure may have changed, ETF holdings fluctuate with index adjustments, not active judgment. Top ten free-float shareholders total 43.94%, mainly state-owned/industrial funds (Shanghai Guosheng Group 19.28%, Big Fund Phase I 14.53%, Shanghai Jiading Industrial Zone 4.36%, Big Fund Phase II 2.53%, Shanghai Xinwei Technology 1.85%) and passive index ETFs (China AMC SSE STAR Market Semiconductor Materials and Equipment ETF 1.19%, Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF 1.10%, China AMC SSE STAR 50 Constituent ETF 1.06%), plus Hong Kong Central Clearing (Northbound) 1.80%; active public funds have limited representation among top ten free-float shareholders. Important supply pressure signal: Big Fund Phase I further reduced approximately 99.15 million shares from 2026Q1→Q2 (-19.36%), and further reduced 16.303 million shares on May 6-8, 2026 (0.4933% of total share capital), reduction continuing. Regarding liquidity, total market cap RMB 73.1 billion, free-float market cap RMB 63.2 billion, a large-cap stock; recent daily turnover approximately RMB 580-970 million, turnover rate 0.90%-1.49%, liquidity ample, bid-ask spread small (9/11 bid one 22.11/ask one 22.12, order ratio -16.72%), should not be understood under small-cap slippage framework. Regarding margin financing, 9/10 margin balance RMB 2.553 billion, 3.99% of free float (market average 4.37%), down 0.39% from prior trading day, slowly declining from 9/1 to 9/4, Jiufang Zhitou states margin financing outflow for 8 of past 10 days.

If single-day turnover continues to expand above RMB 1 billion (significantly higher than recent normal range of RMB 600-900 million), it can be viewed as a signal of capital entry; conversely, if turnover continues to shrink below RMB 600 million while price weakens simultaneously, the weak downtrend scenario's confirmation degree increases.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Watch whether RMB 21.4~22.0 first support range holds, and whether RMB 22.6~23.4 short-term resistance band can be broken with volume (observation idea, not trading instruction)
• Watch whether turnover can continue to expand above RMB 1 billion (capital entry signal) or shrink below RMB 600 million (weakness confirmation signal) (observation idea, not trading instruction)
• Watch whether main capital net outflow scale moderates, and whether margin financing outflow trend continues (observation idea, not trading instruction)
• Watch shareholder reduction-related announcements (such as Big Fund Phase I etc.) and semiconductor sector overall trend impact on the individual stock (observation idea, not trading instruction)

The above scenario projections are based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices, technical indicator calculations. Short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors including news, capital flows, and overall market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee future actual movements, and do not constitute buy/sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Warnings

• Risk of sustained losses and delayed profit inflection point: The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 and 2025 showed losses of RMB 971 million and RMB 1.508 billion respectively, and continued to lose RMB 965 million in H1 2026; net profit attributable excluding non-recurring items has been loss-making for approximately three and a half consecutive years. If price recovery or capacity utilization improvement falls short of expectations, losses may continue.
• Risk of wafer price decline and "volume up, price down": In H1 2026, 300mm wafer sales volume increased over 90% year-on-year, but the company still saw revenue growth without profit growth due to low product unit prices; price recovery is subject to customer contract cycles, product specifications, and cooperation model differences, and it cannot be confirmed that H2 price improvement will be transmitted to all products in a timely manner.
• Risk of expansion and project verification falling short of expectations: Combined 300mm capacity at Shanghai and Taiyuan has reached 1 million wafers/month, company expects to reach 1.2 million wafers/month by end-2026, but three major projects under construction entering verification and ramp-up phases have increased current-period costs. If new capacity yield, customer verification, or utilization falls short of expectations, depreciation and manufacturing cost pressure may further increase.
• Risk of rising R&D investment and expense ratio: The company's H1 2026 R&D expenses increased 66.52% year-on-year, with R&D investment as % of revenue rising to 11.17%; R&D investment in 300mm wafers and 300mm SOI continues to increase. If R&D commercialization progress is slower than expected, relatively high R&D expenses may continue to suppress profits.
• Risk of exchange rates and overseas subsidiary operations: Euro depreciation against RMB caused H1 2026 financial expenses to increase by approximately RMB 200 million year-on-year, Okmetic H1 revenue RMB 362 million but net profit loss RMB 289 million; if exchange rate fluctuations continue, overseas business and consolidated profits may continue to be affected.
• Risk of inventory impairment: The company disclosed that high-cost inventory from prior years still awaits digestion, H1 2026 asset impairment losses increased by approximately RMB 120 million; if wafer prices or inventory turnover improvement falls short of expectations, subsequent inventory impairment pressure may persist.
• Risk of share capital expansion and valuation digestion: After completing issuance of shares to purchase assets and raising matching funds, the company's total share capital increased to approximately 3.305 billion shares, earnings forecasts remain generally negative. If profit recovery speed is lower than share capital expansion and market expectations, EPS and valuation center may continue to be pressured.
• Risk of shareholder reductions and market trading: The company's directors/supervisors/senior management plan to reduce holdings by no more than 1.1053 million shares in total from September 16 to December 15, 2026, not exceeding 0.0334% of total share capital; meanwhile, Big Fund Phase I has prior reduction records. The company's stock price closed at RMB 22.12 as of September 11, down 10.90% and 22.10% over the past 20 and 60 days respectively. If reduction expectations, main capital net outflow, or semiconductor sector weakness continue, short-term volatility may increase.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The company's medium- to long-term growth logic remains centered on 300mm wafer capacity release, domestic customer demand growth, and semiconductor wafer price recovery. In H1 2026, the 300mm business already demonstrated strong revenue and volume elasticity. The company stated at its earnings briefing that it expects domestic wafer-related price recovery benefits to gradually materialize in H2. If price recovery can cover depreciation, R&D, inventory, and financial costs, profit elasticity may exceed revenue growth. After completing the acquisition of minority stakes in Xinsheng Jingtou, Xinsheng Jingke, and Xinsheng Jingrui, the company's equity proportion in the Shanghai Xinsheng system increased, which also helps enhance integration of the 300mm business.

However, the current profit inflection point still faces significant uncertainty. In 2026, institutional forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders range from a profit of RMB 101 million to a loss of RMB 1.511 billion, and East Money consensus still expects negative EPS for 2026-2028, with only a few institutions expecting profitability in 2026. Going forward, key areas to monitor include the actual transmission speed of wafer price recovery, yield and utilization of new 300mm capacity, whether inventory impairment narrows, and whether exchange rates and financial expenses return to normal.

Valuation and trading aspects also need to match the pace of fundamental recovery. The company is currently better observed using price-to-book or price-to-sales ratios, as losses make the price-to-earnings ratio lack reference meaning; as of September 11, the stock price has weakened for multiple consecutive weeks, with short-term resistance near RMB 22.6-23.4 and recent support observation range near RMB 21.4-22.0. Significant divergence remains among technical trends, institutional forecasts, and price recovery expectations, and subsequent stock price performance may depend on earnings delivery rather than mere revenue growth.

Data Sources

• Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report Summary - 2026
• Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. - Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd.
• SH.688126 NSIG NAT'L SILICON - A-Share Real-Time Quote RT Quote - Company Information
• NSIG (688126) Business Analysis_Stock Quotes_Tonghuashun Finance
• 688126 NSIG
• 688126 NSIG - Main Business Scope
• NSIG (688126) Capital Flows_Stock Quotes_Tonghuashun Finance
• NSIG (sh688126)
• NSIG (688126.SH) - Quick Quote
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited - Company Information
• NSIG: NSIG 2026 H1 Report Summary - Home >
• Company Code: 688126
• Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. 688126
• Announcement on the Listing and Trading of RMB Ordinary Shares of Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. on the STAR Market
• Section 1 Important Notice
• NSIG (688126)_Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Charts_News_Commentary_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• China Securities Journal - Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd.<BR/>Announcement on the Listing and Trading of Restricted Shares from Exercise of Pre-IPO Stock Options
• NSIG (688126)_Stock Overview_Stock Price_Real-Time Quotes_Charts_News_Commentary_Financial Reports_FinScope-AI Makes Investing Simpler
• Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. 688126 - Market Indicators 2026-06-26 16:29:00
• (Continued from Page 42) - (Continued from Page 42)
• NSIG: NSIG 2025 Annual Report_Jiufang Zhitou - (5)
• NSIG-U (688126) Main Business Analysis Query | Chaguwang.cn - Chaguwang.China
• Company Code: 688126
• Company Code: 688126
• 688126_2025_NSIG_NSIG 2025 Annual Report_2026-04-17.pdf
• Shanghai-Shenzhen Company Announcement Titles - NSIG: NSIG 2025 Annual Report Summary - April 17, 2026 - Tonghuashun
• NSIG (688126) Main Business Analysis Query | Chaguwang - gubit.cn - Gubite.China
• NSIG: NSIG 2025 Annual Report_Jiufang Zhitou - The company's main products are 300mm and below semiconductor silicon wafers and SOI wafers. After years of continuous R&D and production practice, it has formed deep technical accumulation
• [[Financial Report]: NSIG: NSIG 2025 Annual Report - Discovery Report - NSIG: NSIG 2025 Annual Report](https://www.fxbaogao.com/detail/5357003#1)
• NSIG: NSIG 2025 Annual Report_Jiufang Zhitou - Interest income 379.78 1541.96 2542.90 4464.64
• NSIG: BDO China Shu Lun Pan Certified Public Accountants (Special General Partnership) Reply to the Review Inquiry Letter on Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd.'s Application for Issuance of Shares and Payment of Cash to Purchase Assets and Raise Matching Funds - (II) Verification Opinion
• NSIG - Gas | Amount (RMB 10,000) | 19.55 | 0.38
• NSIG - Manufacturing Expenses | 62,210.76 | 54.18% | 10,386.62 | 43.14%
• NSIG: China International Capital Corporation Limited Independent Financial Advisor Report on Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd.'s Issuance of Shares and Payment of Cash to Purchase Assets and Raise Matching Funds and Related-Party Transaction - Other major related parties or other shareholders directly holding 5% or more of Xinsheng Jingke have interests in the top five customers
• NSIG: Special Verification Opinion of China International Capital Corporation Limited on the Reply to the Review Inquiry Letter of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd.'s Application for Issuance of Shares and Payment of Cash to Purchase Assets and Raise Matching Funds - Securities Star - and quartz crucibles, total procurement amount as percentage of total raw material procurement was 85.46% and 82.95% respectively
• Company Announcement_NSIG: Report on Issuance of Shares and Payment of Cash to Purchase Assets and Raise Matching Funds and Related-Party Transaction (Application Draft) Sina Finance_Sina - Manufacturing Expenses | 62,210.76 | 54.18% | 10,386.62 | 43.14%
• Core Raw Materials Sourced from Imports; NSIG Responds to Investors: Domestic Suppliers "On the Way"
• In 2018, due to strong market demand in the issuer's semiconductor industry and high capacity utilization, with depreciation and amortization costs relatively fixed, the issuer's manufacturing expenses as a percentage was relatively low in 2018
• NSIG: Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. 2021 Targeted Issuance of A-Shares to Specific Objects Prospectus (Application Draft) - 2018-2020 Global Semiconductor Silicon Wafer Industry Competitive Landscape
• According to NSIG's IPO prospectus, its 2017 and 2018 major material procurement proportions are as follows:
• NSIG (688126) Financial Reports_Financial Overview_Stock Financial Indicator Analysis_Investing.com - NSIG (688126)
• NSIG Financial Report Summary
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
• NSIG 2023 Visualized Annual Report | Shanghai Securities News · China Securities Network
• Chiyu Banking Corporation
• NSIG (688126.SH) - Quick Quote
• NSIG (688126) Gross Margin - 🚀 Tech Giant AI Select Stocks: +230% Since Launch, May Gain Double the S&P
• NSIG (688126.SH) New Financial Analysis-PC_HSF10 Data - RMB 1.569 billion
• 688126 Net Assets Per Share bps - Stocks
• Company Announcement_NSIG: Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. 2021 Targeted Issuance of A-Shares to Specific Objects Listing Announcement Sina Finance_Sina - Accounts Receivable Turnover (times) 4.62 5.36 6.25 7.43 Inventory Turnover (times) 2.32 2.94 3.98 5.65 EBITDA (RMB 10,000) 54,554.66 60,275.48 33,685.12 25,333.31 Net Profit Attributable to Issuer Shareholders (RMB 10,000) ...
• Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report Summary - Sina Finance
• NSIG (688126) 2026 H1 Management Discussion and Analysis - Securities Star - NSIG (688126) 2026 H1 Management Discussion and Analysis
• NSIG (688126) - Compass Quote Network - Index Display
• NSIG (688126.SH) Core Themes-PC_HSF10 Data - Core Themes
• NSIG: NSIG August 20, 2026 Investor Relations Activity Record
• NSIG 2024 Visualized Financial Report
• NSIG (688126.SH): 2024 Annual Report Net Profit RMB -971 Million, Turned from Profit to Loss YoY - Economic News Rolling > Text
• NSIG: 2024 Net Profit RMB -971 Million
• NSIG (688126.SH): 2024 Annual Report Net Profit RMB -971 Million, Turned from Profit to Loss YoY - Reading:
• First Loss Is Huge Loss! NSIG 2024 Net Profit RMB -971 Million, Loss Exceeds Sum of Post-IPO Profits
• Stock Code: 688126
• Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited - Company Information