Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) (00388)

Equity Research Report | Sector: Financial Market Infrastructure and Exchange Operations | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Market data primarily as of the Hong Kong market close on September 11, 2026; research timestamp: September 13, 2026. All monetary amounts are in Hong Kong dollars (HKD) unless otherwise stated.

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

1. Executive Summary

HKEX (00388)'s latest disclosed revenue and other income for the first half of 2026 was HKD 16,702 million, with core business revenue of HKD 15,474 million, both up 19% year-on-year; profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 10,568 million, up 24% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 81%. Earnings growth was primarily driven by active trading across the cash, derivatives, Stock Connect, and commodities markets, demonstrating that the business elasticity of its financial market infrastructure and gateway for the internationalization of Chinese assets remains strong.

The company's full-year 2025 revenue and other income was HKD 29,161 million, with profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17,754 million, up 30.3% and 36.0% year-on-year respectively; Cash market segment revenue was HKD 14,396 million, up approximately 58% year-on-year, while Equity and Financial Derivatives, Commodities, and Data and Connectivity segments' revenue and other income grew approximately 18%, 14%, and 7% year-on-year respectively. In 2025, the cash market's average daily turnover was approximately HKD 249,800 million, and Southbound trading's full-year turnover was approximately HKD 28.695 trillion. Stock Connect and the recovery in market turnover were important drivers of earnings growth.

In terms of earnings quality, the company's net investment income from corporate funds in Q2 2026 was HKD 642 million, up 22% year-on-year, of which approximately HKD 290 million came from non-recurring valuation gains on unlisted equity investments; net investment income for 2025 was HKD 5,111 million. Therefore, investment income and the interest rate environment amplify performance but do not fully represent the competitiveness of core trading, listing, and clearing businesses. The market's consensus forecast for 2026 profit attributable to shareholders averages HKD 18,769 million, with 2027 and 2028 at HKD 19,987 million and HKD 20,961 million respectively, implying a significant slowdown in earnings growth compared to the high growth in 2025.

As of the market close on September 11, 2026, the share price was HKD 392.60, down approximately 7.4% from the August 28 close of HKD 424.00, and below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, and MA200; MACD was approximately -2.94, RSI was approximately 21.79, and the share price was near the estimated lower Bollinger Band of HKD 391.5. The technical picture is weak in the short-to-medium term but approaching oversold levels, with HKD 389–393 as the first support zone and HKD 398–405 as the dense moving-average resistance zone.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Cash market business (Cash): Listing, trading, clearing, settlement, custody, depository, and nominee services for Hong Kong equities, ETFs, REITs, and other securities, as well as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect related services
• Equity and financial derivatives business: Stock index futures and options on the Hang Seng Index, H-share Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, etc., single-stock options, warrants, callable bull/bear contracts (CBBCs), OTC derivatives clearing, and related services
• Commodities business: London Metal Exchange (LME), LME Clear, Qianhai Mercantile Exchange (QME), and certain commodity contracts on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange, covering base metals, ferrous metals, commodity data, warehousing, and clearing services
• Data and connectivity business: Market data, market data licensing, data terminals, trading networks, data lines, software sub-licensing, exchange hosting, and access services

2.3 Position in the Industry Value Chain and Cost-Profit Structure

HKEX occupies the core infrastructure and rule-setting platform position in the financial market industry chain. Its value chain is not the traditional manufacturing chain of raw materials—processing—sales, but rather inputs of technology, talent, data centers, regulatory and clearing resources, providing market services to listed companies, trading participants, investors, and data clients through trade matching, listing and regulation, central clearing, settlement and custody, market data, and the Stock Connect interconnection network.

• Main inputs include trading, clearing, settlement, and risk management systems; servers, networks, data centers, and cybersecurity infrastructure; exchange premises and office properties; and external professional services such as legal, audit, consulting, and technology.
• Core inputs also include financial market professionals, covering technology, regulatory, risk, legal, and product personnel. In 2025, the group's employee salaries and related short-term benefits were approximately HKD 3,309 million, and employee share-based compensation was approximately HKD 361 million.
• Clearing and risk management require capital, margin, and clearing fund systems. Such resources are key inputs for financial market infrastructure operations, but are not equivalent to inventory or production materials of traditional manufacturing companies.
• Technology and system supply involves high reliability and high regulatory requirements, with high supplier replacement costs; HKEX reduces dependence on single external suppliers through internal technology teams and proprietary systems.
• Professional talent is scarce, and HKEX occupies a mixed position between a price-taker for talent and a brand employer in talent procurement.
• In terms of electricity, data centers, communication networks, and office facilities, HKEX is generally not a full price-maker, but its scale, long-term contracts, and critical infrastructure attributes can enhance procurement bargaining power.
• HKEX's core resources also include the institutional and licensing barriers of being Hong Kong's only recognized securities and futures market, the Stock Connect interconnection network, the listing and financing platform, the LME global metals pricing and clearing network, and trading and clearing technologies such as HKEX Orion.
• Main customers include listing applicants and listed companies, securities and futures trading participants, clearing participants, domestic and international investors, as well as information vendors, data terminal clients, and technology service clients.
• Hong Kong local securities trading and clearing services have strong institutional and network-based bargaining power, and trading participants need access to Hong Kong's primary trading and clearing infrastructure.
• The listing business faces competition for listing resources from markets such as Singapore, the US, the UK, and mainland exchanges, and needs to balance listing efficiency, regulatory regimes, valuation levels, international investor coverage, and Chinese corporate financing needs.
• The market data business possesses proprietary quotation and order data, but clients can compare different exchanges and data providers, so data pricing is not entirely free from competition.
• The derivatives business needs to attract market makers, institutional investors, and hedge funds through product design, trading fees, rebates, and liquidity incentives, with bargaining power depending on specific product liquidity and the number of substitutes.
• Core competition in the exchange industry comes from liquidity network effects, regulatory and clearing barriers, listing venue competition, derivatives liquidity competition, and globalization competition in market data and technology services.
• In 2025, Southbound trading's full-year turnover was approximately HKD 28.695 trillion, with average daily turnover of approximately HKD 121.1 billion, accounting for approximately 23% of Hong Kong's total cash market turnover; Northbound trading's full-year turnover was approximately RMB 50.333 trillion, reflecting the importance of Stock Connect to downstream capital flows.
• In 2025, a total of 99 exchange participants used HKEX's custody services, and these participants collectively accounted for approximately 73% of cash market turnover and approximately 70% of derivatives market trading volume.
• As of December 31, 2025, the group's "accounts receivable, prepayments, and deposits" totaled HKD 68,691 million, of which CNS currency obligations receivable were approximately HKD 43,088 million, settlement reserve fund and clearing guarantee fund held by ChinaClear were approximately HKD 20,867 million, transaction levies, stamp duties, and fees receivable were approximately HKD 1,479 million, other receivables, prepayments, and deposits were approximately HKD 2,085 million, and provision for impairment of accounts receivable was approximately HKD 54 million. CNS currency obligations typically mature within two days after the trade date, fee receivables typically mature immediately or within 60 days, and most other receivables, prepayments, and deposits mature within three months; total accounts receivable subject to expected credit loss provisions was HKD 466 million, with related provisions of HKD 54 million, and the expected credit losses on the remaining approximately HKD 67,266 million of receivables and other deposits were assessed as minimal. The above data indicates that HKEX primarily bears large-scale fund flows and risk management pressures arising from the settlement and clearing system, rather than inventory accumulation or long-term commercial credit risk of traditional enterprises; the research notes did not provide accounts receivable turnover days, accounts receivable as a percentage of revenue, or as a percentage of net profit.
• As of the 2025 annual report period-end, the group's largest single customer contributed less than 10% of the group's total revenue. The annual report did not disclose the revenue share of the top five customers across various customer types such as trading participants, issuers, and data clients, and therefore it cannot be inferred that no customer concentration risk exists in each segment; top-five customer concentration data is missing, and specifics should be based on the latest annual report.

HKEX occupies the core infrastructure and rule-setting platform position in the financial market industry chain, belonging to a high-barrier, asset-light, strong-network-effect mid-to-upstream platform enterprise, with profit margins primarily affected by scale effects. The key to further improving profits lies in growth in trading volume and Stock Connect capital flows, recovery of Hong Kong's IPO and refinancing market, improvement in derivatives liquidity, growth in LME metals trading volume and market data revenue, and expansion into adjacent businesses such as data, connectivity, fixed income, and OTC derivatives; short-term pricing upside is constrained by fee rates, rebates, system investments, regulatory requirements, and global exchange competition.

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

All amounts are in HKD. The latest disclosed financial report is the interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with an announcement date of August 19, 2026. Q2 2026 revenue and other income was HKD 8.499 billion, up 18% year-on-year and up 4% quarter-on-quarter; profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.380 billion, up 21% year-on-year and up 4% quarter-on-quarter.

HKEX's H1 2026 revenue and other income and profit attributable to shareholders both reached half-year record highs, primarily driven by active trading across the cash, derivatives, Stock Connect, and commodities markets. H1 EBITDA was HKD 13.411 billion, up 23% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 81%; basic earnings per share was HKD 8.36, up 24% year-on-year, and the interim dividend was HKD 7.43 per share, up 24% year-on-year. The high growth for full-year 2025 was primarily driven by the recovery in market turnover and improved trading in the cash, derivatives, and commodities markets. Q2 2026 net investment income from corporate funds was HKD 642 million, up 22% year-on-year, including approximately HKD 290 million in non-recurring valuation gains on unlisted equity investments, the sustainability of which should be viewed with caution.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

The ET Net consensus forecasts are based on 13 broker reports collected as of recently and are not official guidance from HKEX; some brokers only disclosed 2026 forecasts, and the number of institutions covering 2027 to 2028 data is relatively small. StockAnalysis's 2026 revenue forecast cites S&P Global Market Intelligence data as of August 24, 2026, but its page does not fully display 2027 and 2028 revenue figures. Guosen Securities is a single-broker forecast and cannot be equated with multi-institution consensus. Different sources may use different definitions and adjustment approaches for revenue, net profit, and EPS, particularly StockAnalysis uses non-GAAP adjusted EPS.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of August 31, 2026, the reference share price was approximately HKD 423.80, the previous trading day's close was HKD 424.00, total market capitalization was approximately HKD 534.920 billion, the 52-week price range was approximately HKD 360.00 to HKD 460.20, and TTM EPS was approximately HKD 15.63. Based on the share price of HKD 423.80, the TTM P/E ratio is approximately 27.1x and the P/B ratio is approximately 9.2x; based on the ET Net consensus EPS forecasts, the forward P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are approximately 28.6x, 26.9x, and 25.7x respectively. StockAnalysis's adjusted EPS of HKD 16.06 corresponds to a 2026 forward P/E ratio of approximately 26.4x, but this is a non-GAAP adjusted figure and should not be directly mixed with HKEX's statutory basic EPS or ET Net consensus forecasts. Using HKD 423.80 as the reference price, the consensus average target price of HKD 513.12 implies upside of approximately 21.1%; the low-end target price of HKD 420 is approximately 0.9% below the reference price, and the high-end target price of HKD 620 implies upside of approximately 46.3%. The current valuation already reflects strong earnings quality, market infrastructure position, and future turnover growth expectations, and is not at the low valuation level of traditional financial stocks. Key risks include whether Hong Kong stock turnover can be maintained at high levels, IPO market activity, Northbound and Southbound capital flows, interest rates and corporate fund investment income volatility, LME business performance, and the sensitivity of high valuations to earnings downgrades.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Full-Year 2025 Results: Profit Attributable to Shareholders HKD 17.754 Billion, Up 36% YoY

HKEX (00388.HK) announced its full-year 2025 results on February 26, 2026. Revenue and other income was HKD 29.161 billion (approximately HK$29.161bn), up 30% year-on-year, of which main business revenue rose 32% to HKD 27.103 billion; profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 17.754 billion, up 36% year-on-year, which the company stated was a record high for the second consecutive year; basic earnings per share was HKD 14.05. EBITDA was HKD 22.796 billion, up 40% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 79% (+5pct). Q4 revenue and other income was HKD 7.31 billion (+15%), and profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 4.335 billion (+15%). Net investment income from corporate funds was HKD 1.870 billion (+7%), including non-recurring gains of HKD 167 million from valuation of unlisted equity investments (a loss of HKD 62 million in 2024). Business highlights: cash market average daily turnover up 93% year-on-year (full-year 2025 ADT approximately HKD 249.8 billion, +90%); Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Northbound ADT +42%, Southbound +151%; 119 IPOs for the year, raising HKD 286.9 billion, up 226% year-on-year, ranking first globally; total refinancing of HKD 514.6 billion (more than double 2024). Data quality note: a certain article by Gelonghui/jrj wrote in its headline "profit attributable to shareholders grew 40% to HKD 17.754 billion," but the body text stated +36% — 40% was actually the EBITDA growth rate, and the headline was incorrect, so the body text figure of 36% has been adopted; a certain Soochow Securities transcript wrote revenue as "HKD 2.916 billion" and "net profit attributable to parent of HKD 1.775 billion" (missing the order of magnitude, which should be HKD 29.161 billion / HKD 17.754 billion), and that item should not be relied upon. Sources are secondary aggregated sources such as AASTOCKS, Caihua News, Zhitong Finance, and Stockstar; specific figures should be based on the original HKEX disclosure on HKEXnews.

4.2 2026 Interim Results: Profit Attributable to Shareholders HKD 10.57 Billion, Up 24.05% YoY (Single Source, Pending Verification)

According to East Money's labeling, HKEX (00388.HK)'s 2026 interim results announcement date is August 19, 2026. Profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 10.57 billion, up 24.05% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was HKD 8.36. An interim dividend of HKD 7.43 per share was also declared, with an ex-dividend date of September 1, 2026 and a payment date of September 15, 2026. This information appears only from East Money (single source), and the dates and amounts could not be cross-verified with a second source; it should be treated with caution. Source: https://emweb.securities.eastmoney.com/PC_HKF10/pages/home/index.html?code=00388.

4.3 Dividend Distribution: FY2025 Full-Year Dividend HKD 12.52 Per Share (+35%), Payout Ratio Maintained at 90%

HKEX (00388.HK) FY2025 full-year dividend was HKD 12.52 per share, up 35% year-on-year, with a payout ratio maintained at 90%. Composition: first interim dividend of HKD 6.00 per share (paid in September 2025) + second interim dividend of HKD 6.52 per share (declared on February 26, 2026, ex-date March 11, 2026, payment date March 25, 2026). Total dividend payout was approximately HKD 15.825 billion. FY2024 comparison: second interim dividend of HKD 4.90 per share (declared on February 27, 2025, ex-date March 12, 2025, payment date March 26, 2025); full-year HKD 9.26. Naming convention note: HKEX official announcements refer to the dividend declared at the end of February as the "Second Interim Dividend"; however, some data vendors (etnet) label the dividend declared in August 2025 as the "second interim dividend" and the one declared in February 2026 as the "final dividend." The naming conventions are inconsistent, but for shareholders the amounts and payment dates are clear (6.00 + 6.52 = 12.52). Sources include HKEX Group official website dividend announcement PDF, etnet dividend table, and Sina Finance, among multiple sources.

4.4 2026 Interim Dividend: HKD 7.43 Per Share, Ex-Dividend Date September 1, 2026, Payment Date September 15, 2026 (Single Source)

HKEX (00388.HK) declared an interim dividend of HKD 7.43 per share alongside its 2026 interim results, with an ex-dividend date of September 1, 2026 and a payment date of September 15, 2026. This information appears only from East Money (single source) and could not be cross-verified with a second source; it should be treated with caution. Source: https://emweb.securities.eastmoney.com/PC_HKF10/pages/home/index.html?code=00388.

4.5 Share Buybacks: No Actual Buyback Announcements Found Within the Search Window

Within this search window (November 2025 – September 2026), no announcements of actual share buyback execution by HKEX (00388) were found. Only: the March 19, 2025 "Notice of Annual General Meeting" contained a "general mandate to buy back shares and issue shares" (a routine buyback authorization proposal, not an actual buyback). Source: 10jqka announcement index. The "single-day buyback exceeding RMB 400 million" and "cumulative buyback of 160 million A-shares and 7.16 million H-shares" appearing in the search all belong to other companies (Jiangbo Long A-shares, etc.) and are unrelated to 00388; do not confuse them.

4.6 Shareholder Activity: JPMorgan Increases/Decreases Holdings (Single Source)

JPMorgan's position changes in HKEX (00388.HK): On August 19, 2026, increased holdings by 775,800 shares, on-exchange average price HKD 413.2018 / off-exchange average price HKD 412.7496, latest holding 101.6 million shares, shareholding ratio 8.01%. On June 12, 2026, decreased holdings by 1.639 million shares, on-exchange average price HKD 379.6658 / off-exchange average price HKD 379.9011. Source is only from East Money's "Key Events Reminder" (single source); JPMorgan's position changes are on a Disclosure of Interests (HKEX Disclosure of Interests) basis, and it is recommended to verify against the original DI filings on HKEXnews. Source: https://emweb.securities.eastmoney.com/PC_HKF10/pages/home/index.html?code=00388.

4.7 Regulation/Policy: Launch of "Tech Enterprises Channel," Allowing Confidential Filing of Listing Applications by Specialist Technology and Biotech Companies

On May 6, 2025, HKEX and the SFC issued a joint announcement formally launching the "Tech Enterprises Channel," allowing specialist technology and biotech companies to submit listing applications on a confidential basis. As of the February 2026 results conference, Bonnie Chan stated that more than 100 companies in the queue came from Chapter 18A/18C. In February 2026, HKEX was "reported to be studying expanding the scope of confidential IPO applications." Sources: Sina Finance, etnet news dated 13/02/2026.

4.8 Market Data: Hong Kong ADT Approximately HKD 260 Billion in Early 2026, Over 400 Active Listing Applications

Early 2026 market data: In January 2026, combined mainland + Hong Kong market trading volume accounted for approximately 75% of the Asia-Pacific region (results conference); at end-February, securities market total market capitalization was up 28% year-on-year (etnet 05/03/2026); a JPMorgan report stated that Hong Kong ADT year-to-date in early 2026 was approximately HKD 260 billion; active listing applications exceeded 400 in 2026 (vs. 297 in Q3 2025). Source: https://www.aastocks.com/sc/mobile/news.aspx?newsid=now.1505127.

4.9 Regulatory Personnel/Compliance Events: SFC Freezes Assets Related to Former HKEX Employee, etc.

Regulatory personnel/compliance events: On February 24/25, 2026, the SFC stated it had obtained an injunction freezing assets related to a former Assistant Vice President of HKEX's Listing Division; the former employee and their in-law were alleged to be involved in insider trading, and HKEX responded that it "continuously reviews" the matter. Source: etnet (page updated 10/03/2026). On February 12, 2026, appointed Ma Hongjia as Managing Director and Head of Middle East Representative Office (Middle East expansion). On February 27, 2026, HKEX welcomed the Hong Kong government's reappointment of Chan Kin-po and Anna Cheung as directors and appointed new directors. On March 9, 2026, launched the flagship "Carer Support Program" (ESG/community-related, not a material financial matter).

4.10 Strategic Initiatives: "Tech Enterprises Channel," LME-Approved Delivery Warehouse Opened in Hong Kong, Launch of HKEX Tech 100 Index

Policy-related strategic initiatives: 2025 "Tech Enterprises Channel," LME-approved delivery warehouse opened in Hong Kong, launch of the "HKEX Tech 100 Index," etc. (see Stockstar announcement summaries).

4.11 M&A/Strategic Investment: Strategic Stake in Rapid Clearing and Settlement Holdings, Acquiring 20% Equity for Up to HKD 455 Million

On November 12, 2025, HKEX made a strategic investment in "Rapid Clearing and Settlement Holdings" (FIC/debt instrument Central Moneymarkets Unit CMU-related). HKEX will subscribe for new shares to acquire up to 20% equity in Rapid Clearing and Settlement Holdings for up to HKD 455 million; the Exchange Fund (managed by HKMA) holds 80%, and HKEX holds 20%. Rapid Clearing and Settlement Holdings was established by the Exchange Fund in October 2025 and wholly owns Rapid Clearing and Settlement Limited (which operates the CMU). The signing ceremony was held on November 12, 2025. HKEX Chief Operating Officer Lau Bik-yan stated that the investment was made with own funds and would not affect dividend policy; HKMA Deputy Chief Executive Li Da-zhi stated he was open to whether other strategic investors would be introduced. Multiple sources are consistent: AASTOCKS, Stockstar, Zhitong Finance/investing.

4.12 Litigation/Legal Matters: Elliott Files New Competition Law Claim Over LME Nickel Incident, Service Not Yet Completed

HKEX (00388.HK) litigation/legal matters: Elliott filed a new competition law claim over the LME nickel incident, and service has not yet been completed (the original research notes are interrupted at this point). Source: https://finance.jrj.com.cn/2026/09/09141658397085.shtml.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the market close on September 11, 2026, 00388 closed at HKD 392.60, having declined for multiple consecutive trading days, with the share price below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, and MA200, and the short-to-medium-term moving average system is bearish. MACD is approximately -2.94 and below the zero line, with weak technical momentum; RSI is approximately 21.79, having entered oversold territory, meaning there is potential for a short-term technical bounce or range-bound repair, but this is not equivalent to a trend reversal. The share price is near the estimated lower Bollinger Band of HKD 391.5, with first support at HKD 389–393; if support is broken, the HKD 380–386 area should be watched. On the upside, HKD 398–405 is the dense moving-average resistance zone, and without volume confirmation, rebound space may be limited. September 11 turnover was approximately HKD 1.462 billion, somewhat elevated compared to the prior several trading days, and the short-selling turnover proportion was approximately 19.12%, indicating that short-term capital conditions are generally cautious.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, For Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is solely a subjective scenario analysis based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice and is not a single-point price prediction.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively high weight, approximately 50% to 60%; this is a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and capital flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Reference range HKD 389–405. Trigger conditions include holding the HKD 389–393 support zone, RSI remaining at low levels without further significant deterioration, volume declining to approximately 2 million–3.5 million shares with turnover of approximately HKD 800 million–1.4 billion, and short-selling as a percentage of turnover declining from recent levels of approximately 19%–24%. Oversold indicators may support a technical bounce, but the HKD 398–405 moving-average zone may still limit rebound magnitude.
• Weaker downside (moderate weight, approximately 30%; this is a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and capital flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Reference range HKD 375–390. Trigger conditions include the closing price effectively breaking below HKD 389, volume continuously expanding to over 4 million shares, turnover persistently exceeding HKD 1.5 billion–1.8 billion, while the short-selling proportion remains at approximately 20% or higher, and the Hang Seng Index or broker/exchange-related sectors weaken in tandem. If HKD 380 also fails, it may further test the medium-term support area near HKD 360–365.
• Rebound and strengthening (relatively low weight, approximately 10% to 20%; this is a subjective heuristic weight based on current technical and capital flow conditions, not a statistical probability): Reference range HKD 400–415. Trigger conditions include reclaiming HKD 398–405, single-day turnover rising above HKD 1.8 billion with up-day volume significantly higher than the 10-day average, MACD negative value narrowing with signs of an upward crossover, and Hong Kong market turnover being active with the Hang Seng Index and broker/exchange sectors rebounding in tandem. If HKD 405 is held, the next observation area is HKD 410–415; without volume confirmation, a single-day bounce is more likely to be an oversold rebound.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, single-day volume was approximately 3.726 million shares, turnover was approximately HKD 1.462 billion, and based on approximately 1.268 billion issued shares, the turnover rate was approximately 0.29%. Recent trading days' volume was approximately 1.74 million–5.30 million shares, and based on share prices of HKD 392–425, daily turnover was approximately HKD 700 million–2.2 billion. In terms of shareholder structure, as of publicly available information dated May 8, 2026, the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region held approximately 74.841 million shares, accounting for approximately 5.90% of total share capital, making it an important shareholder but not an absolute controlling shareholder. The 2025 annual report disclosure and related materials show that HKEX does not have obvious family control or a single private controlling shareholder; HKSCC Nominees Limited typically represents numerous investors holding shares through CCASS and cannot be directly regarded as a single beneficial owner; this search was unable to reliably obtain the complete top ten ultimate beneficial owners' aggregate shareholding ratio as of September 2026, nor could it confirm based on this whether public funds, social security funds, or QFIIs are among the top ten ultimate beneficial owners. The above shareholder data is as of May 8, 2026 or earlier annual report disclosures, is subject to lag, and the shareholding structure may have changed. In actual trading, CCASS and broker-custodied nominee holdings limit the reflection of ultimate holder concentration in public information. Hong Kong stocks do not have a unified, authoritative A-share-style main fund net inflow indicator, so this report only observes capital conditions through volume, turnover, and short-selling turnover proportion.

If single-day turnover persistently expands above HKD 1.8 billion while the share price reclaims and holds HKD 405, this can serve as a verifiable signal of capital re-strengthening; this criterion is based on the recent turnover range and is merely an observation signal, not an operational instruction.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)

• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: Watch whether the HKD 389–393 area can form effective support; if broken, continue to observe the HKD 380–386 strong support zone and its effectiveness.
• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: Watch whether the HKD 398–405 resistance zone can be reclaimed and held, particularly noting whether it is accompanied by elevated turnover.
• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: Track whether the short-selling turnover proportion declines from the approximately 19%–24% level of September 10–11, and whether price declines continue to be accompanied by elevated volume.
• Observation idea, not an operational instruction: Watch for volume-price confirmation signals where single-day turnover persistently reaches above HKD 1.8 billion and the share price holds HKD 405.

The above scenario analysis is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices and technical indicator calculations. Short-term share prices will also be affected by multiple factors including news flow, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee future actual movements, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The exchange industry is the financial market infrastructure industry, with core businesses covering listing, trading, central clearing, settlement and custody, market data, and technology connectivity. Industry competition is not purely price competition, but revolves around liquidity network effects, regulatory and clearing barriers, listing resources, derivatives liquidity, market data, and technology services. HKEX's differentiated positioning is as the gateway for the internationalization of Chinese assets, relying on Hong Kong's local trading and clearing system, Stock Connect, LME, and the international investor network to form a comprehensive market ecosystem.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• Liquidity network effects are an important moat for mature exchanges: the more concentrated the buyers, sellers, market makers, brokers, clearing institutions, and data providers, the greater the trading depth, and the more market participants can be attracted.
• Exchanges and central counterparty clearing institutions need regulatory recognition and must continuously meet risk management, capital, technology, and business continuity requirements, making it difficult for new entrants to replicate the complete system through low fees alone.
• HKEX needs to compete with exchanges in the US, UK, Singapore, Japan, and the mainland for listed company resources, especially large technology companies, biopharmaceutical companies, international companies, and Chinese companies' overseas financing needs.
• The derivatives business faces competition from other Asian exchanges, OTC derivatives, and products from US and European exchanges, with liquidity, contract design, margin efficiency, trading hours, and clearing convenience being key variables.
• Competition in market data, indices, trading connectivity, custody, and market technology services is more globalized, and clients can access multiple exchanges and data providers simultaneously, making substitutability higher than Hong Kong's local trading and clearing businesses.
• HKEX's 2025 Cash segment revenue was HKD 14,396 million, up approximately 58% from HKD 9,120 million in 2024; Equity and Financial Derivatives segment revenue was HKD 4,160 million, up approximately 18% from HKD 3,523 million in 2024; Commodities segment revenue and other income was HKD 3,171 million, up approximately 14% from HKD 2,788 million in 2024; Data and Connectivity segment revenue was HKD 2,266 million, up approximately 7% from HKD 2,122 million in 2024.
• Based on 2025 operating segment Revenue, Cash accounted for approximately 60.6% of group segment revenue, Equity and Financial Derivatives approximately 17.5%, Commodities approximately 12.2%, and Data and Connectivity approximately 9.5%; the notes also indicate that the Commodities segment Revenue figure was HKD 2,906 million, which differs from the "revenue and other income" figure of HKD 3,171 million, and the two should not be mixed.
• HKEX is not a monopoly entirely free from competition: Hong Kong's local trading and clearing infrastructure has strong institutional barriers, but listing, derivatives, data, international clients, and some commodities businesses still face global exchange competition.

6.3 Major Competitors

HKEX and CME, ICE, SGX, JPX, and Nasdaq all cover trading, clearing, listing, or market data businesses, but with different business focuses. CME is stronger in global benchmark derivatives and US interest rate, energy, and agricultural markets; ICE covers multi-asset trading, clearing, and data businesses; SGX highlights Asian time zone, India and Southeast Asia-related products, foreign exchange, and iron ore derivatives; JPX is centered on Japanese domestic equities, derivatives, and clearing infrastructure; Nasdaq highlights US tech stock listings, electronic trading, market technology, and data. HKEX's core differentiated advantages lie in Hong Kong's local securities and clearing system, the gateway for the internationalization of Chinese assets, Stock Connect interconnection, LME's global base metals pricing and clearing capabilities, and a comprehensive market ecosystem comprising equities, derivatives, commodities, data, and connectivity services. The comparable companies use different fiscal years, currencies, and statistical standards, and the research notes did not provide unified-standard data that can be used for direct comparison of market share, profitability, or valuation.

7. Risk Warnings

• Market turnover decline risk: In 2025, Cash market segment revenue grew approximately 58% year-on-year, and cash market average daily turnover was approximately HKD 249,800 million, making performance highly sensitive to trading activity. If Hong Kong cash, derivatives, or Stock Connect turnover cannot be maintained at high levels, revenue and earnings growth may fall short of current expectations.
• IPO and refinancing volatility risk: In 2025, HKEX had 119 IPOs raising approximately HKD 286,900 million, with total refinancing of approximately HKD 514,600 million, and related activities improved significantly year-on-year. Such listing and financing data are subject to market cyclicality; if listing demand from large technology companies, biotech companies, or Chinese companies weakens, listing fees and related business revenue may be affected.
• Stock Connect capital flow risk: In 2025, Southbound trading's full-year turnover was approximately HKD 28.695 trillion, with Southbound average daily turnover accounting for approximately 23% of Hong Kong's total cash market turnover; Northbound trading's full-year turnover was approximately RMB 50.333 trillion. If Northbound and Southbound capital flows, investor risk appetite, or related market correlations decline, Cash and Stock Connect-related revenue may come under pressure.
• Investment income volatility risk: 2025 net investment income was HKD 5,111 million; Q2 2026 net investment income from corporate funds was HKD 642 million, of which approximately HKD 290 million came from non-recurring valuation gains on unlisted equity investments. Investment income is affected by the scale of corporate funds, the interest rate environment, and valuation changes, and cannot be regarded as a stable source of core trading business profit.
• LME and related legal matters risk: HKEX owns overseas assets including LME and LME Clear, and is also involved in Elliott's new competition law claim over the LME nickel incident, with service of the claim not yet completed. LME business performance and the subsequent developments of this matter may affect the Commodities segment's performance, legal and compliance costs, and market reputation.
• Regulatory and compliance risk: HKEX undertakes the functions of Hong Kong's primary securities and derivatives market, clearing, and listing rules platform; recently the SFC froze assets related to alleged insider trading by a former HKEX Listing Division employee and their in-law, and HKEX stated it continuously reviews the matter. If similar compliance events expand, it may increase regulatory requirements, internal control costs, and reputational pressure.
• Valuation and earnings forecast downgrade risk: As of September 11, 2026, the share price was HKD 392.60, with a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 25.4x; the market consensus earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 imply a CAGR of approximately 5.7%, significantly lower than the 36.0% net profit growth in 2025. If turnover, IPO, or investment income falls short of expectations, the relatively high valuation may amplify the share price reaction to earnings forecast downgrades.
• Short-term technical and capital flow risk: The share price is already below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, and MA200, and MACD is below the zero line; on September 11, short-sold turnover was approximately HKD 279 million, accounting for 19.117% of stock turnover, and the price decline was accompanied by turnover of approximately HKD 1,462 million. If the HKD 389–393 support zone is broken with continued elevated volume, the share price may further test HKD 380–386, or even the HKD 360–365 area shown by some data sources.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

HKEX's medium-to-long-term growth logic primarily stems from its Hong Kong core trading and clearing infrastructure barriers, the Stock Connect interconnection network, the listing and financing platform, LME's global metals pricing and clearing capabilities, and the comprehensive ecosystem comprising cash, derivatives, commodities, data, and connectivity services. From 2025 to H1 2026, turnover, IPO and refinancing activities, Northbound and Southbound trading, and improvements in the commodities market have translated into strong revenue and profit growth; the "Tech Enterprises Channel," the opening of the LME-approved delivery warehouse in Hong Kong, the Tech 100 Index, and the strategic investment in Rapid Clearing and Settlement Holdings provide potential expansion directions for listing services, commodities business, and fixed income infrastructure.

However, market expectations have gradually shifted from high growth to mid-single digits, and the reference share price of HKD 423.80 as of August 31, 2026 corresponded to a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 27.1x; although the share price fell to HKD 392.60 as of September 11, the trailing P/E ratio is still approximately 25.4x, and the valuation is relatively sensitive to changes in turnover, the IPO market, and earnings expectations. Going forward, it is necessary to monitor whether Hong Kong cash market turnover can be maintained at high levels, Southbound capital inflows and Northbound trading performance, IPO and refinancing activities, LME business, market data revenue, and the sustainability of corporate fund investment income.

In the short-term technical picture, RSI is in or near oversold territory, with potential for a bounce or range-bound repair, but the share price remains below multiple medium-to-long-term moving averages, and the September 11 decline was accompanied by approximately HKD 1,462 million in turnover and a 19.117% short-selling turnover proportion, indicating that capital conditions have not yet clearly strengthened. If it can reclaim and hold HKD 398–405 with elevated turnover, the weak structure may be alleviated; if it breaks below HKD 389 with continued elevated volume, then the HKD 380–386 and lower medium-term support areas should be watched. The above scenarios only reflect the growth logic, valuation status, and technical signals shown by the data and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations.

Data Sources

• Principal Subsidiaries
• 2025 Annual Report
• Who We Are
• CME Group Inc. Reports Fourth Consecutive Year of Record Annual Revenue, Adjusted Operating Income, Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Earnings Per Share for 2025 | CME Group Inc.
• Exchanges & Clearing
• Singapore Exchange Annual Report 2025
• Trading Overview in Year 2025 & December 2025 | Japan Exchange Group
• Table of Contents
• 2026 INTERIM RESULTS, INTERIM DIVIDEND AND CLOSURE OF REGISTER OF MEMBERS
• 2025 FINAL RESULTS, DIVIDEND AND CLOSURE OF REGISTER OF MEMBERS
• 00388 Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing HKEX - Free Real-Time Stock Quote - Earnings Forecast - etnet | Hong Kong News, Financial Information and Lifestyle Platform
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKG:0388) Stock Forecast & Price Targets
• FIRST SHANGHAI GROUP - E-commerce
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (00388)
• 00388.HK
• HKEX-R (80388) (80388.HK) Company Factsheet - ShareInvestor.com
• Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 00388: Corporate Information
• VICON
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) is the only legally operating stock and futures market and supporting clearing and settlement entity in Hong Kong_Wealth Account_East Money
• Beijing North Star Company Limited (0588.HK) Stock Price, News, Chart and History – Yahoo Finance
• HKEX (00388.HK): Invests in Rapid Clearing with Own Funds, Does Not Affect Dividend Policy - US Stocks
• <table><tr><td colspan="2">Disclaimer</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2">Pursuant to Chapter 38 of the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, the Securities and Futures Commission regulates Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited in relation to its shares on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong...
• <table><tr><td colspan="2">Disclaimer</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2">Pursuant to Chapter 38 of the Rules Governing the Listing of ...
• 00388.HK Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing | HKEX | Company Dividends
• () Stock Price, News, Charts, Company Information Details
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK): Summary of Strategic Investment in Rapid Clearing and Settlement Holdings Limited
• Second Interim Dividend for the Year Ended December 31, 2025 and Closure of Register of Members _ Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (02968) _ Announcement Text
• Blue Chips: HKEX (00388.HK) Full-Year Net Profit Up 36% YoY to HKD 17.75 Billion, Beating Expectations; Second Interim Dividend Increased to HKD 6.52
• HKEX Earns HKD 17.75 Billion Net in 2025 - Sina Finance
• HKEX (00388): Subscription for Rapid Clearing Comes from the Group's Existing Funds, Does Not Affect Dividend Policy, Contributor Zhitong Finance
• Hong Kong Stocks Live
• Hong Kong Stock English Announcement Index - 00388,80388--HKEX,HKEX-R:Notice of Annual General Meeting and Proposals for Election of a Director, General Mandates to Buy Back Shares and to Issue Shares, and Adoption of New Articles of Association - 2025-03-19 - 10jqka
• HK Stock Announcement Highlights | Longyuan Power's PV Power Generation Up About 20% YoY in First 8 Months; Jiangbo Long Single-Day Buyback Exceeds RMB 400 Million A-Shares
• CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093.HK) SYH2083 Eye Drops Obtain Clinical Trial Approval in China
• Q&A
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) 2025 Profit Attributable to Shareholders HKD 17.754 Billion, Up 36% YoY, Second Interim Dividend HKD 6.52
• [[New Stock IPO] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) 2025 Annual Report: Revenue HKD 2.916 Billion, IPO Fundraising Ranked First Globally](https://hk.stockstar.com/IG2026022700011296.shtml)
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK): Summary of Full-Year 2025 Results, Dividend, and Closure of Register of Members - Stockstar
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) Announces 2025 Full-Year Results, Profit Attributable to Shareholders HKD 17.754 Billion, Up 36% YoY, Author Zhitong Finance
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) 2025 Shareholder Profit Up 36.05% YoY, Plans Second Interim Dividend of HKD 6.52 - Stockstar
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) Announces 2025 Full-Year Results, Profit Attributable to Shareholders HKD 17.754 Billion, Up 36% YoY
• () Stock Price, News, Charts, Company Information Details
• HKEX Results Hit Another Record High, CEO Bonnie Chan: Market Has Demand for Expanding Confidential Filing Scope, Will Consider Comprehensively
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) 2025 Profit Attributable to Shareholders Up 40% to HKD 17.754 Billion, Second Interim Dividend HKD 6.52 Per Share
• Major Brokerages: JPMorgan: HKEX (00388.HK) Strong Last-Quarter Earnings, Maintains "Overweight" Rating
• Zhongce Fu Hui Securities Limited
• Citi: Cuts HKEX (00388) Target Price to HKD 495, Lowers 2026–2028 EPS Forecasts by 1%
• Major Brokerages: Goldman Sachs Cuts HKEX (00388.HK) Target Price to HKD 532, Maintains "Buy" Rating
• Goldman Sachs: Maintains HKEX (00388) "Buy" Rating, Cuts Target Price to HKD 532
• Citi Cuts HKEX (00388) Target Price to HKD 495, Maintains "Buy" Rating
• [Goldman Sachs: Maintains HKEX (00388) "Buy"