Report date: 2026-09-27 | Price data: As of market close on September 25, 2026 | Sources: 27 | Report engine: v2 (latest)

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Latest market data

Close	10.06 (-0.89% on the day; +4.03% over 5 sessions; -8.04% over 20 sessions)
Market cap	HKD 9.08 billion
P/E (last fiscal year)	n/a (loss-making)
P/B (MRQ)	2.27x
P/S (last fiscal year)	18.57x
52-week range	8.68 (2026-09-22) – 20.18 (2026-01-14)
Moving averages	MA5 10.08 / MA10 9.96 / MA20 10.23 / MA60 11.35
MACD (12,26,9)	DIF -0.378, DEA -0.44, histogram 0.124
RSI	RSI6 48.1 / RSI14 43.2
Bollinger bands (20,2)	Upper 11.16 / middle 10.23 / lower 9.31
Volume	0.54x the 20-day average
One-week range (about 68% coverage)	9.32 – 10.62 (-7.4% ~ +5.6%)
One-week range (about 95% coverage)	8.55 – 11.66 (-15.0% ~ +15.9%)

As of the 2026-10-02 close; calculated from daily price data (unadjusted prices) and refreshed automatically each trading day. The one-week range reflects historical volatility only and is not a forecast. The report below was written on 2026-09-27; its prices and short-term scenarios reflect data at that time.

OSL Group Limited (00863)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Digital Asset Trading and Payment Platforms　|　Report Date: September 27, 2026　|　As of market close on September 25, 2026

This report was automatically compiled by AI based on public information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.

Key conclusion: Expansion in trading and payments has yet to deliver profitability; current valuation still depends on earnings recovery

Key data	Value
Closing price (daily change)	HK$9.85 (+1.86%)
Market capitalization	Approximately HK$8.888 billion
PE (TTM)	Loss-making; not meaningful on a positive basis
PB	Approximately 2.23x
Dividend yield	0%
52-week range	HK$8.68–20.18
Turnover/turnover rate	Approximately HK$20 million/0.23%

Market data as of: market close on September 25, 2026

1. Investment Highlights

Revenue growth accompanied by widening losses: Attributable loss for 1H2026 was HK$860.6 million, and net operating cash outflow was HK$1,218.5 million. Revenue increased 65.8% YoY after restatement on a gross basis, but this does not represent growth in net revenue.
Scale growth has yet to translate into profit: Platform trading volume rose 241.3% YoY in the first half, while adjusted non-IFRS revenue increased 75.5%. In 2025, revenue from the digital asset markets and technology infrastructure businesses grew 25.6% and 45.3%, respectively, but the contribution from stablecoins and other areas has not been disclosed.
The share price reflects recovery expectations rather than current earnings: Shares closed at HK$9.85 on September 25, with PB of approximately 2.23x and loss-making PE-TTM that is not meaningful on a positive basis. Older institutional target prices of HK$18.40–20.78 predate the interim results and should not be regarded as the current consensus.

Market Expectations and Evidence

What the market is pricing in: Available verifiable information does not provide an effective post-results consensus estimate. PB of approximately 2.23x suggests the market is still pricing in business expansion and future earnings recovery; the average of the old institutional target prices, HK$19.23, is only an outdated reference.
What the evidence shows: Trading volume, adjusted non-IFRS revenue and revenue from both major businesses all increased. However, first-half losses widened, operating cash outflow was HK$1,218.5 million, and the simple gross margin was approximately 0.23%. Whether growth can translate into stable profits remains unproven.

Evidence leans: Bearish; confidence: Medium

The evidence of losses, cash flow and thin gross margins is clear. However, there is no verifiable post-results consensus estimate, and the revenue restatement affects YoY interpretation.

2. Business and Competitive Position

2.1 Business Structure

The company provides digital asset trading, custody, stablecoin payments and technology services to institutional and retail clients, and earns commissions, trading spreads and service fees.

Business segment	Revenue share	Gross margin	Revenue growth	Key points
Digital asset markets business	Approximately 72.8% (2025 original annual-report IFRS business revenue basis)	—	+25.6% (YoY in 2025)	Revenue was driven by increased stablecoin payments and institutional investor participation.
Digital asset technology infrastructure business	Approximately 27.2% (2025 original annual-report IFRS business revenue basis)	—	+45.3% (YoY in 2025)	Growth was driven by an expanding customer base and the development of payment API services.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Strength of competitive advantages: Medium

Licensing barriers to entry: The 2025 annual report disclosed more than 50 licenses and registrations across 11 jurisdictions.
Trading and custody capabilities: Platform trading volume was HK$201.2 billion in 2025; the company provides custody and trading infrastructure services for two Hong Kong ETFs.
Cross-border network: The platform covers more than 30 fiat currencies, over 100 blockchains, and more than 150 countries/regions.

Key threats: Price reductions by competitors could compress trading spreads. Higher licensing, banking-channel and compliance costs, combined with volatility in digital asset prices and trading activity, could prevent scale from translating into profit.

2.3 Value-Chain Position and Profitability Trends

Key inputs include digital asset trading liquidity, fiat and stablecoin on/off-ramp channels, payment gateways, platform technology and compliance support. In 2025, fees and commission expenses were HK$76.7 million and IT costs were HK$102.0 million.
The top five suppliers accounted for approximately 36% of procurement in 2025, with the largest supplier accounting for approximately 13%. The annual report did not disclose supplier identities or procurement by category. Costs from channels and service providers limit the company’s bargaining power with upstream suppliers.
Customers include institutional and retail trading clients, OTC counterparties, stablecoin payment and on/off-ramp clients, and SaaS white-label clients. Institutional clients and liquidity providers may affect spreads and fees.
Pre-funding before trades and short settlement periods reduce the working capital tied up by ordinary trading customers, but key customers and payment channels may still affect transaction terms; this is not sufficient evidence of strong pricing power.
The 2025 annual report disclosed that the top five customers accounted for approximately 27% of revenue, with the largest customer accounting for approximately 17%; the top five suppliers represented approximately 36% of procurement, with the largest supplier accounting for approximately 13%. These figures are disclosed for a single year only; details of the parties were not provided, so changes in concentration and the identities of the parties cannot be cross-checked.
Net accounts receivable at end-2025 was HK$232.3 million, mainly aged 0–30 days; OTC receivables at year-end were subsequently settled. This represented approximately 0.23% of restated gross-basis revenue and approximately 47.5% of original IFRS revenue. Accounts payable were HK$34.0 million; comparable turnover days were not disclosed.

Year	Gross margin	Net margin	Reason for change
2023	Approximately 0.51%	Approximately -0.64%	Under gross presentation, trading spreads were far below transaction volumes.
2024	Approximately 1.14%	Approximately 0.14%	Trading spreads increased; net profit turned positive, but the margin remained low.
2025	Approximately 0.49%	Approximately -0.39%	Cost of sales increased with total transaction value, while expenses and valuation changes weighed on net profit.

OSL occupies an intermediate position in the digital asset trading, custody and payments value chain as a regulated platform. On a retrospectively restated gross basis, trading gross margins are thin. Margin improvement depends on a higher contribution from stablecoin payments and technology services, control of channel and operating costs, and the realization of operating leverage. The simple gross margin for 1H2026 was approximately 0.23%; this is a non-annualized figure and was affected by fair value losses.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

The expansion of stablecoin payments and cross-border services has supported growth in platform trading and technology services. Licensing, channel and compliance investment has also risen, and growth in trading scale has yet to demonstrate that it can translate into stable profitability.

Company	Positioning	Comparable data	Difference from the company
HashKey Holdings (03887.HK)	Hong Kong-licensed trading, on-chain services and asset management	FY2025 revenue of approximately HK$723.1 million, gross profit of approximately HK$408.5 million and gross margin of approximately 56.5%; loss-making, PE N/M	The businesses overlap relatively directly, but business mix and the presentation of revenue and gross profit differ from OSL’s; financial data are for supplementary comparison.
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN)	Global digital asset trading and integrated services platform	FY2025 total revenue of US$7,181.3 million and net profit of approximately US$1,260 million; PE of approximately 23.3x (September 25, 2026)	Greater scale and profitability; revenue and gross profit bases are not directly comparable with OSL’s.
Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ/TSX: GLXY)	Digital asset capital markets and infrastructure businesses	FY2025 adjusted gross profit of approximately US$426 million and net loss of approximately US$482 million; PE of approximately -22.69x on September 24, 2026	Also operates asset management, trading and data center businesses, making its overall basis unsuitable for direct comparison with OSL.

OSL’s licensing network, custody services and cross-border payment access provide an advantage in business entry, but current trading scale has yet to translate into stable profits. HashKey has the most direct business overlap; Coinbase’s profitability model can serve as a reference, although its scale and reporting differences are significant.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

Reporting period	Revenue	YoY	Net profit attributable to shareholders	YoY	Adjusted YoY	Gross margin
1H2026 (ended 2026-06-30)	HK$55,812.6 million	+65.8%	Loss of HK$860.6 million	Loss widened; YoY percentage not stated	—	Approximately 0.23%
FY2025	HK$100,522 million	+206.4%	Loss of HK$386.8 million	Turned from profit to loss	—	Approximately 0.49%
FY2024	HK$32,808 million	—	Profit of HK$47.7 million	—	—	Approximately 1.14%

Interim figures are unaudited; historical revenue is presented on the retrospectively restated basis adopted in 2026. Amounts are in Hong Kong dollars.

Revenue increased due to the restatement to gross presentation and an expansion in trading volume. However, attributable losses widened in 1H2026 and net operating cash outflow was HK$1,218.5 million; revenue growth has yet to translate into profit.

3.2 Financial Health Check

Indicator	Value	Assessment	Explanation
ROE	-23.65%; 1H2026	Monitor	The interim loss corresponds to negative ROE; annualized figures may differ.
Debt-to-asset ratio	24.2%; end-June 2026	Good	Leverage is not high, but this does not offset losses and cash consumption.
Operating cash flow	Outflow of HK$1,218.5 million; 1H2026	Monitor	Operating cash consumption exceeded the attributable loss for the period.
Cash on hand and reliance on financing	Cash of HK$1,403.4 million; end-June 2026	Fair	Net financing inflow of HK$1,542.6 million in the first half came mainly from a new share issuance.
Accounts receivable	HK$366.8 million; end-June 2026	Fair	Most receivables were aged 0–30 days; gross-basis presentation makes turnover ratios unsuitable for comparison.

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation

Indicator	Current	Historical range	Peer comparison
PB	Approximately 2.2x; share price HK$9.85	—	—
Dividend yield	0%	—	—

PB of approximately 2.2x suggests the share price implies expectations for business expansion and future earnings recovery; however, the company continues to report substantial losses and operating cash outflows. Comparable data on historical valuation percentiles and peers are unavailable on a consistent basis, while the market capitalization of approximately HK$8.9 billion is also an approximate estimate.

4.3 Institutional Views

The average target price of three verifiable older ratings is HK$19.23, within a range of HK$18.40–20.78. The latest was Citi’s on 2026-06-04; this is not the current consensus.

Institution	Rating	Date	Notes
Guotai Junan	Accumulate	2026-04-12	Target price HK$20.78
DBS	Buy	2026-04-20	Target price HK$18.50
Citi	Buy	2026-06-04	Target price HK$18.40

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Upcoming Milestones

Time	Event	What to watch
December 29, 2026, and January 30, 2027	Vesting dates under share award plans	The plans cover 170,000 shares and 2.602 million shares, subject to service or performance conditions; they are not equivalent to the release of lock-up shares. Watch actual vesting and the impact on share capital.

5.2 Recent Key Events

2026-08-31 Interim trading expansion but wider losses (Negative): Attributable loss for the first half was HK$860.6 million; platform trading volume increased 241.3% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS revenue rose 75.5% YoY. Total revenue of HK$55,812.6 million was affected by gross presentation and cannot be taken directly as net revenue growth.
2026-08-20 Retrospective revenue restatement and profit warning (Negative): The company retrospectively adjusted the presentation of digital asset trading revenue and cost of sales, stating that the change would not affect net profit, among other items. It warned of a first-half loss of HK$800–900 million, citing fair value losses and expansion investment.
2026-08-06 to 2026-09-15 Expansion of stablecoin and cross-border payment partnerships (Positive): The company launched AgentPay and disclosed the HKDAP corporate settlement process and cross-border payment partnerships with Waka and Banking Circle. USDGO circulation increased from over US$1.1 billion on August 20 to over US$1.2 billion on August 31. No transaction volume or revenue contribution has been disclosed.
2026-09-04 OSL trading platform ranks near the top (Positive): Citing CoinGecko, the company said OSL ranked first in Hong Kong spot and stablecoin trading volume and eighth among global exchanges. This is a snapshot for a specific date and does not represent sustained market share or improved profitability.

6. Bull-Bear Debate and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

Platform trading volume increased 241.3% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS revenue rose 75.5% YoY, indicating an expansion in business activity.
Revenue from the technology infrastructure business increased 45.3% YoY in 2025; the platform covers more than 100 blockchains and over 150 countries/regions.

6.2 Bear Case

1H2026 loss was HK$860.6 million and net operating cash outflow was HK$1,218.5 million; expansion has yet to generate profits.
The simple gross margin was approximately 0.23% in 1H2026 and approximately 0.49% in 2025; expansion in revenue scale has not improved margins.
At a share price of HK$9.85, PB is approximately 2.23x and PE-TTM is loss-making; the current earnings base makes a positive PE valuation difficult to support.

6.3 Other Risks

The top five customers account for approximately 27% of revenue and the largest customer approximately 17% → the loss of key customers or weaker bargaining power could reduce revenue and trading spreads.
The top five suppliers account for approximately 36% of procurement and the largest supplier approximately 13% → higher channel or service costs could further squeeze thin gross margins.
Higher licensing and compliance costs and intensifying competition in trading spreads → operating expenses or costs per unit of revenue may rise, delaying earnings recovery.
Low trading value and turnover, with a turnover rate of approximately 0.23% on September 25 → insufficient liquidity may amplify price volatility and valuation discounts.

7. Monitoring Checklist

Indicator	Current	Bull-case confirmation	Bear-case confirmation
Adjusted revenue and trading volume	1H revenue +75.5% YoY; trading volume +241.3%	Growth continues in subsequent periods and gradually translates into improvements in gross profit and operating profit	Trading volume or adjusted revenue weakens, while profits remain unimproved
Gross margin and operating profit	1H simple gross margin approximately 0.23%; attributable loss of HK$860.6 million	Gross margin recovers consecutively and drives a marked narrowing of losses	Gross margin remains low or losses widen further
Operating cash flow and cash	1H net operating cash outflow of HK$1,218.5 million; cash of HK$1,403.4 million	Operating cash outflow narrows and reliance on external financing declines	Cash consumption continues and financing needs increase
Monetization of stablecoin payments	USDGO circulation exceeds US$1.2 billion; revenue contribution not disclosed	Quantifiable payment transaction volume or revenue is disclosed and contributes to profit	Circulation grows, but no transaction volume, revenue or gross profit contribution is disclosed

8. Share Price and Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following is a subjective scenario analysis. The weights are heuristic judgments based on technical analysis, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute investment advice.

8.1 Technical Overview

The share price remains below the MA10, MA20 and Bollinger middle band. The September 25 rebound has not reversed the recent weak structure. In the short term, watch whether the share price holds HK$9.15–9.45 and recovers HK$10.0–10.4.

Indicator	Value	Interpretation
MA5	HK$9.72	Closing price is slightly above the short-term moving average
MA10	HK$10.01	Near-term moving average resistance
MA20/Bollinger middle band	HK$10.47	Closing price remains below the medium-term moving average zone
Bollinger upper band	HK$11.73	Reference for the upper volatility range
Bollinger lower band	HK$9.21	Near the first support area

8.2 Key Price Levels

Level	Range	Explanation
Short-term resistance	HK$10.0–10.4	Corresponds to the MA10 and recent resistance zone; if reclaimed on higher volume, watch the area around HK$10.8.
First support	HK$9.15–9.45	Corresponds to recent lows; a decisive break could lead to another test of HK$8.68–9.00.
Strong support	HK$8.68–9.00	Includes recent and 52-week lows; a break below HK$8.68 would increase downside risk.

8.3 One-Week Range Based on Historical Volatility

Using the September 25, 2026 price of HK$9.85 as the base, the projected closing-price range for the next five trading days is based on daily volatility over the past 60 trading days (approximately 3.1%):

Coverage probability	Price range	Relative to base
Approximately 68%	HK$9.19–10.56	-6.7%–+7.2%
Approximately 95%	HK$8.6–11.28	-12.7%–+14.5%

This range reflects only the stock’s recent normal volatility and does not indicate the direction of price movement. In the event of earnings releases, major announcements or a sharp market decline, actual movements may exceed the range.

8.4 Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

Consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 50%): If HK$9.15–9.45 finds support and there is no significant high-volume break below this range, the share price may consolidate between HK$9.15 and HK$10.40.
Downside bias (medium weight, approximately 30%): If the closing price decisively breaks below HK$9.15 on higher volume, it may fall toward HK$8.68–9.00; a break below HK$8.68 would invalidate the support assessment.
Strengthening rebound (relatively low weight, approximately 20%): If the share price reclaims HK$10.0–10.4 on higher volume, with support from sector or company news, HK$10.8–11.2 would be the next range to watch.

8.5 Capital Flows and Liquidity

Recent daily trading volume was approximately 2.08 million to 3.96 million shares on most trading days. On September 25, the turnover rate was approximately 0.23% and trading value was approximately HK$20 million; trading volume on September 18 was approximately 8.5 million shares. As of March 11, 2026, Liu Shuai held 28.98%; the concentration among the full top 10 beneficial shareholders and institutional ownership could not be confirmed, and disclosures may be delayed. When trading volume is low, the order book is thin, and larger buy or sell orders may increase price impact and slippage.

A daily trading volume of approximately 4 million shares or more, trading value of approximately HK$38 million or more, and a recovery of HK$10.0–10.4 could be viewed as a confirmation signal of a high-volume price move.

The above scenario analysis is based on the closing data, historical prices and technical indicators as of September 25, 2026. Short-term share price movements may also be affected by news, capital flows, the broader market and other factors. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited; they do not guarantee future actual movements and do not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Please make an independent assessment based on the latest market information and assume your own investment risks.

Data Sources

This report was automatically researched, compiled and generated by AI based on information from public sources. The information is current as of market close on September 25, 2026, and may not reflect the latest developments. Please refer to the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals for specific figures. This report is for informational and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own independent assessments and assume their own investment risks.

Reports are generated by AI from public online information and may contain errors or outdated information. They are for research only, not investment advice. Verify material facts against company filings and authoritative sources.