CALB Group (03931)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Power Batteries and Energy Storage Batteries | Report Date: October 2, 2026 | Market Data as of 2026-09-30 Close

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

Core Conclusion: High-speed earnings growth has been delivered, but the decline in gross margin and funding pressure from expansion remain to be digested

Market data as of: 2026-09-30 close

1. Key Investment Points

• Interim profit accelerated, but gross margin did not improve in tandem: In the first half of 2026, revenue was RMB 27.084 billion, up 65.0% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 935 million, up 100.7% year-on-year; gross margin was 16.71%, down about 0.82 percentage points year-on-year.
• Energy storage expansion and power battery volume ramp-up are the main growth drivers: In 2025, power battery revenue grew 55.0%, while energy storage products and others grew 71.9%, with revenue share rising to 31.8%; future growth still depends on conversion of design wins, delivery, and cost control.
• Valuation is not high, but the bar for earnings delivery is rising: As of the September 30 close of HKD 17.36, the 2025 PE was 17.83x and PB was 0.7x; institutional forecast for 2026 net profit is RMB 2.717 billion.

Market Expectations and Evidence

• What the market is pricing in: The stock price implies a market-implied EPS CAGR of about 10.9%; institutional net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 are RMB 2.717 billion, RMB 4.061 billion, and RMB 5.421 billion, respectively, but no consensus growth-rate forecast is provided, so a direct growth-rate comparison is not possible.
• What the evidence shows: Revenue and net profit grew rapidly in the first half, supporting the direction of earnings expansion; however, gross margin declined year-on-year, and debt and liquidity pressure increased. The earnings direction is consistent with the growth narrative, but profit quality and sustainability still need verification.

Evidence bias: Bullish; Confidence: High (10 institutions covering, market data and financial report figures programmatically verified)

Revenue and profit growth are strong, and PB is low; however, gross margin has declined, liabilities have risen, and historical valuation percentiles are missing, so sustainability has not yet been confirmed.

2. Business and Competitiveness

2.1 Business Structure

The company sells power batteries, energy storage products, and related integrated products to OEMs and energy storage customers, competing on product performance, cost, and project delivery.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Strength of Competitive Advantages: Weak

• Customer certification and switching costs: The company has entered the customer systems of Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and others and obtained design wins for some platforms, but design wins do not equal large-scale delivery.
• Product and application expansion: 6,138 global patent applications by year-end; marine batteries obtained certifications from DNV, CCS, ABS, RINA, and others.
• Industry scale position: In 2025, power battery installations ranked fourth globally and third domestically; energy storage cell shipments ranked fourth globally, though ranking methodologies vary.

Main threats: Competition in battery products and customer bargaining pressure on selling prices; raw material price volatility, customer concentration, and capital tied up in expansion may erode profits.

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain and Profit Trends

• Cell manufacturing typically involves cathode and anode materials, electrolyte, separators, copper foil, and aluminum foil; the company has not disclosed the procurement share of each item, and this classification does not represent its actual cost structure.
• In 2025, the top five suppliers accounted for 35.1% of procurement, with the largest at 8.6%; the pricing mechanism for major raw materials has not been disclosed, so raw material bargaining power cannot be assumed based on scale.
• Customers include passenger and commercial vehicle OEMs, energy storage projects, and system customers; after entering a vehicle model, platform, or project supply chain, the company is still affected by procurement share, product price cuts, delivery, and payment terms.
• The 2025 annual report discloses: the top five customers accounted for 50.8% of sales, with the largest customer at 16.7%; the top five suppliers accounted for 35.1% of procurement, with the largest supplier at 8.6%. Customers are anonymous and cannot be mapped to specific automakers.
• At the end of 2025, net trade receivables were RMB 12,993.64 million, about 29.3% of annual revenue; estimated turnover was about 82 days. Trade and notes payables totaled RMB 27,036.65 million; some supply chain financing payments were repaid 180 to 300 days after the original maturity date.

The company operates in the midstream cell and battery system manufacturing segment of the lithium battery industry chain, with a consolidated gross margin of about 16.7% in 2025. Profit improvement depends on a higher share of high-value-added products, delivery scale and capacity utilization improvement, and cost reduction outpacing price declines; the annual report does not break down gross margin for power batteries and energy storage products.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

Demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries is expanding, but battery companies still face bargaining pressure from OEMs and energy storage customers, raw material volatility, and price reduction pressure. For CALB, energy storage revenue is growing faster than power batteries, and product mix and cost improvement will affect profitability.

CALB's 2025 revenue grew rapidly, and the energy storage share increased; its consolidated gross margin is close to EVE Energy and Gotion High-tech but clearly lower than CATL. Customer design wins, technology products, and application certifications provide a competitive foundation, while customer concentration, bargaining pressure, and tied-up capital remain weaknesses.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

Financial report amounts are in RMB; the 2025 recurring growth rate comes from a single brokerage report, and recurring data for the interim period and 2024 were not disclosed.

H1 2026 revenue and net profit attributable to parent grew rapidly, but gross margin declined about 0.82 percentage points year-on-year. The 2025 recurring growth rate is based on only a single brokerage source; group profit and attributable profit are on different bases.

3.2 Financial Health Check

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation Level

Valuation multiples were calculated programmatically based on the 2026-09-30 closing data (P/E and P/S based on the most recent complete fiscal year, P/B based on the most recent period); peer multiples were calculated on the same basis using 2026-09-30 closing data.

Market-implied expectation: At the current 17.83x P/E, if investors require a 9% annualized return and a 15x P/E valuation after 10 years, EPS needs to grow about 10.9% annually (excluding dividends, conservative), which can be compared with the institutional forecast growth rates below.

As of September 30, the 2025 PE was 17.83x, PB was 0.7x, and PS was 0.59x; due to the lack of same-basis historical percentiles, it cannot be determined whether the stock is at historical highs or lows. The price implies EPS growth of about 10.9% annually, and institutional net profit forecasts are on an upward trend, but forecast growth rates are not given; whether valuation can be digested depends on profit delivery and gross margin stabilization.

4.2 Consensus Expectations

ET Net consensus as of September 2, 2026; 10 institutions each for 2026 and 2027, and 9 for 2028. The 2028 net profit forecast range is RMB 3.777 billion to RMB 8.053 billion.

4.3 Institutional Views

The average target price from 4 institutions is HKD 37.35, with a range of HKD 30.50–42.72; the latest report is from Guotai Haitong on September 3. The current price is about HKD 17.36 (inferred from September 30).

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Future Milestones

5.2 Recent Important Events

• 2026-08-28 Interim results grew substantially (Positive): H1 revenue was RMB 2,708.4367 million, up 65.0% year-on-year; profit for the period was RMB 1,522.773 million, up 102.2% year-on-year; data unaudited.
• 2026-07-28 Increased shareholding in Hefei company (Neutral): Won a 12.7230% stake in the Hefei company for RMB 690 million, raising direct shareholding to 42.1082% after completion; actual profit contribution still depends on closing and operations.
• 2026-08-28 Proposed interim dividend (Neutral): The board proposed RMB 0.6 per 10 shares, subject to shareholder approval; the shareholders' meeting and ex-dividend and payment dates have not yet been announced.

6. Bull-Bear Debate and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

• Energy storage products and other revenue grew 71.9%, with share rising to 31.8%, providing a faster growth source beyond power batteries.
• Consolidated gross margin rose from about 7.5% in 2021 to about 16.7% in 2025, showing that scale, product mix, and cost reduction have brought phased improvement.
• Power battery installations rank fourth globally and third domestically, and energy storage cell shipments rank fourth globally; customer certification and application expansion provide a delivery foundation.

6.2 Bear Case

• Gross margin fell from about 16.7% in 2025 to 16.71% in H1 2026; high growth has not yet translated into further gross margin expansion.
• At end-June 2026, the debt-to-asset ratio was 65.6%, the net debt-to-equity ratio was 101.0%, and net current liabilities were RMB 15.637 billion; expansion may increase financing and interest burden.
• The top five customers accounted for 50.8% of sales, and the largest customer accounted for 16.7%; changes in customer procurement share or bargaining power may amplify revenue and profit volatility.

6.3 Other Risks

• Net receivables reached RMB 12.994 billion at end-2025, about 29.3% of annual revenue; slower collections would tie up working capital and suppress operating cash flow.
• EU Battery Passport provisions will take effect in February 2027; if compliance system construction or certification progress falls short of requirements, it may increase costs or affect delivery of European customer projects.
• The 12.7230% stake in the Hefei company was won for RMB 690 million, and future profit contribution depends on closing and operations; if integration or returns fall short of expectations, it will drag on capital returns.

7. Tracking Checklist

8. Stock Price and Short-Term Outlook (Next One Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: Scenario weights are subjective heuristic judgments based on current patterns, not statistical probabilities.

8.1 Technical Overview

The stock price remains in a weak consolidation zone, and technical indicators have not yet confirmed a turn stronger; the interim report was released on September 30, and the disclosed performance is as of June 30.

8.2 Key Price Levels

8.3 One-Week Range Based on Historical Volatility

Using the 2026-09-30 price of HKD 17.36 as the baseline, and using the return distribution over the past 300 trading days (scaled to the current index-weighted daily volatility of about 3.3%, preserving this stock's own frequency of large rises and falls), the projected closing price range for the next 5 trading days is:

This range only reflects the stock's recent volatility magnitude and does not include a directional view; in the event of major announcements or a sharp market decline, actual movements may still exceed the range.

8.4 Next One-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively high weight, about 50%): If support at HKD 17.20–17.50 broadly holds but the price is capped by resistance at HKD 17.85–18.30, it may consolidate between HKD 16.70–18.30. Based on historical volatility, the probability of closing in this range after one week is about 45%.
• Weaker downside (medium weight, about 30%): If the close effectively breaks below the HKD 16.08–16.70 support zone and market risk appetite weakens, it may test HKD 15.92–16.10. Based on historical volatility, the probability of closing in this range after one week is about 5%.
• Rebound and strengthening (relatively low weight, about 20%): If the price holds above HKD 18.30 on increased volume, and the sector improves or new catalysts emerge, it may rebound to HKD 18.91–19.60. Based on historical volatility, the probability of closing in this range after one week is about 5%.

The figures in parentheses are subjective weights; the probabilities at the end of each sentence are inferred from the volatility range above and only reflect volatility magnitude, not directional views.

8.5 Capital and Liquidity

As of September 30, 2026, the turnover rate was 0.69% and turnover was HKD 90 million; over the past two weeks, daily turnover was mostly about HKD 20 million to HKD 159 million. Main funds were estimated to have net inflows on September 1 and net outflows on September 4 and 29, with mixed direction. The top ten major holder entities held a combined approximately 50.6% as of June 30, 2026; the list shows no top public fund, social security, or QFII holders; the data is lagged and the structure may have changed. When trading is thin, larger orders may face higher impact costs or slippage.

If turnover reaches HKD 150 million or more for two consecutive trading days and the close stands above HKD 18.30, this can be regarded as one signal of increased short-term capital participation.

The above scenario projection is based on September 30, 2026 closing data and historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors such as news flow, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee future actual movements, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

Sources

• hkexnews.hk（公告PDF）
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• SZSE:300750 PE Ratio (TTM): 15.58 — 56% Below Median
• hkexnews.hk（公告PDF）
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• 中创新航：2025年净利润14.76亿元 同比增长149.6% _ 东方财富网
• 中创新航(03931)股票股价,实时行情,新闻,财报数据_新浪财经_新浪网
• 3931.HK CALB - Company Information - Earnings Forecast Overview - etnet
• Listed Company Information Title Search
• hkexnews.hk（公告PDF）
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• Equity Securities
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility
• 中创新航（03931.HK）9月29日收盘跌1.1%，主力资金净流出475.13万港元_港股频道_证券之星
• 中创新航(03931)最新股东|股东 - 理杏仁
• 中创新航(03931)_个股概要_股票价格_最新资讯_行情走势_历史数据 - 老虎社区
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• 中创新航(HK3931) 股东持股_F10_同花顺金融服务网
• Predefined Documents
• 港股異動 | 中創新航(03931)漲超7% 車企加速綁定二線電池廠商 公司客戶結構持續優化 作者 智通財經

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of the 2026-09-30 close. There may be timeliness differences; for specific data, please refer to the company's official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is only for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.