Pony AI Inc. (PONY)

Equity Research Report | Sector: L4 Autonomous Driving / Robotaxi and Autonomous Trucking | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the U.S. market close on September 11, 2026; uniformly adopting a closing price of approximately USD 6.635 and volume of approximately 3.13 million shares. Different market data sources show USD 6.63–6.64, which reflects rounding and data source differences.

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Pony AI (NASDAQ: PONY) is currently in an expansion phase of "rapid revenue growth but not yet profitable." H1 2026 revenue was USD 70.47 million, up 98.9% year-over-year; Q2 2026 revenue was USD 36.22 million, up 68.8% year-over-year, of which Robotaxi service revenue was USD 12.10 million, up 691.2% year-over-year, and Robotruck service revenue was USD 13.30 million, up 40.0% year-over-year. However, the company's H1 2026 consolidated net loss was USD 98.86 million, with net loss attributable to Pony AI Inc. of USD 110.25 million; Q2 2026 operating net cash outflow was approximately USD 44 million, and free cash flow outflow was approximately USD 76.2 million, with commercialization expansion still accompanied by high cash consumption.

Robotaxi has become the business with the strongest growth elasticity. As of June 30, 2026, the company had approximately 1,975 Robotaxis and plans to expand to more than 3,500 by the end of 2026, while raising its full-year Robotaxi revenue target to more than 3.5 times that of 2025. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have achieved break-even on the Robotaxi per-vehicle economic model; overseas, the company launched fully driverless passenger testing with Verne in Zagreb, Croatia, and demonstrated the Gen-7 Robotaxi without an in-vehicle safety operator in Doha, Qatar, but Doha is more accurately a test ride experience or phased testing at present, and cannot yet be equated with public-facing paid fully driverless commercial operations.

The company's business structure has shifted from being primarily Robotruck and technology licensing in its early days to a relatively balanced mix of Robotaxi, Robotruck, and Intelligent Solutions. In H1 2026, revenue from the three businesses was USD 20.64 million for Robotaxi, USD 23.52 million for Robotruck, and USD 26.30 million for Intelligent Solutions, but Intelligent Solutions revenue grew only approximately 4% year-over-year in Q2, indicating that the growth pace of each business is not uniform. On the capital markets side, as of September 11, 2026, PONY's closing price was approximately USD 6.635, about 73% below its 52-week high of USD 24.92 and close to its 52-week low of USD 6.36–6.37; the stock price is below multiple short- and medium-term moving averages, MACD is below the zero line, and the short-term technical structure remains weak.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Robotaxi services (autonomous driving mobility services): driverless ride-hailing for individual passengers (PonyPilot App, proprietary platform + access to third-party platforms), and provision of AV engineering solutions (AV software deployment and maintenance, vehicle integration and engineering, road testing services) to OEMs and TNCs; has obtained fully driverless mobility service permits and charges fares in all four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and is the only company to achieve fully driverless Robotaxi commercial operations in all four first-tier cities
• Robotruck services (autonomous trucking services): sells "virtual driver" solutions and provides freight services to logistics platforms; truck brand "PonyTron" (小马智卡), in cooperation with ZF Commercial Vehicle, SANY Heavy Truck, etc., and has launched an L4 fully automotive-grade fully redundant driverless light truck and Gen-4 Robotruck
• Intelligent Solutions: the company's Investor Presentation explicitly states that this segment was "previously named Licensing and Applications"; it includes software licensing, proprietary in-vehicle domain controllers, data analytics tools, V2X products, and engineering and development services for OEMs and sensor/hardware component suppliers
• Segment revenue proportion (January 1–June 30, 2026, Source: East Money U.S. equities F10): Intelligent Solutions USD 26.30 million/37.33%; Robotruck services USD 23.52 million/33.38%; Robotaxi services USD 20.64 million/29.29%; total USD 70.47 million. This half-year breakdown comes from a single East Money source page, but the total reconciles with Q1 2026's USD 34.30 million + Q2 2026's USD 36.20 million, giving it relatively high credibility; the company's interim report should prevail for specifics
• Historical segment structure (Source: company Q4/full-year 2024 earnings, prospectus): in 2022, Robotaxi accounted for approximately 13.1%, with Robotruck dominant; FY2024 Robotaxi USD 7.30 million (-5.3% YoY), Robotruck USD 40.40 million (+61.3% YoY), technology licensing and applications USD 27.30 million (-30.1% YoY), totaling approximately USD 75.10 million; H1 2024 Robotruck contributed approximately 73% of revenue, with Robotaxi accounting for only 4.7%; by H1 2026 this has reversed into a three-way split, with Q2 2026 Robotaxi revenue of USD 12.10 million, up 691.2% year-over-year (of which passenger fare revenue was up 849.3%), and Q1 2026 Robotaxi revenue up 395.4% year-over-year, with passenger fares up 456.5%

2.3 Industry Chain Upstream/Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The above data comes from research notes, with a retrieval time of approximately September 10–11, 2026. All monetary units are in U.S. dollars (USD). There are two net loss bases: consolidated net loss and net loss attributable to Pony AI Inc. (the difference stems from non-controlling interest NCI allocation, e.g., a $14.5M difference in Q2 2026 and approximately $57M in FY2025); the basis must be noted when citing. The FY2025 net loss of $76.8M (20-F summary) and $133.97M (stockanalysis.com/FT statements) could not be fully reconciled and are a point of uncertainty; SEC EDGAR company original 20-F/10-Q and company press releases should prevail. There is a source conflict in Q1 2026 analyst revenue expectations: the FactSet basis of $22.3M conflicts with the Benzinga article's $51.09M; the notes lean toward the $22.3M figure but flag it as not fully verified. Some financial data comes from secondary reprints (MetaTrader, Youinvest, marketscreener), and the original SEC EDGAR documents were not directly opened for verification.

Q2 2026 revenue beat expectations, with total revenue of $36.22M, up 68.8% year-over-year, of which Robotaxi service revenue was $12.1M, up 691.2% year-over-year, accounting for approximately one-third of total revenue for the first time (fare-charging/passenger revenue up 849% year-over-year); Robotruck revenue was $13.3M (+40%); Intelligent Solutions revenue was $10.8M (+3.9%, with the low growth due to fluctuations in domain controller delivery pace). Gross margin was 17.5%, improving from 16.1% in the prior-year period and 16.8% in Q1 2026. The company remains loss-making, with a GAAP operating loss of $65.7M (+7.3% YoY) and a Non-GAAP operating loss of $56.7M (YoY increase <5%); the quarter included a $33.4M fair value gain on trading securities, but was dragged down by a $25.0M impairment on long-term investment prepayments. Operating quality improved: the operating loss margin improved from -285.6% to -181.5%, and the net loss margin improved from -248.3% to -125.2%. On cash flow, Q2 operating net cash outflow was $44M, capex was $32.2M (H1 cumulative $44.3M), and free cash flow outflow was approximately $76.2M (prior-year period $35.0M). As of 2026-06-30, cash and equivalents, short-term investments, restricted cash, and long-term wealth management instruments totaled $1.39B ($1.44B at end-March). On the fleet side, the Robotaxi fleet was 1,975 vehicles, with a target of >3,500 by year-end (original target 3,000); management raised full-year targets: Robotaxi revenue >3.5 times that of 2025 (originally 3 times). Q1 2026 revenue was $34.25M, up 145% year-over-year, significantly beating the FactSet consensus of $22.3M; segment breakdown was Robotaxi $8.6M (+395%), Robotruck $10.2M (+31%), Intelligent Solutions $15.5M (+246%); gross margin was 16.2%; adjusted loss per share was $0.09, significantly better than market expectations ($0.25 loss); cash was $1.44B (2026-03-31); operating net cash outflow was $74.2M. FY2025 revenue was $90.0M, up approximately 20% year-over-year; gross profit was $14.16M; operating loss was -$260.86M; non-operating income was +$184.10M (including a $128.0M fair value gain on trading securities); pre-tax loss was -$76.76M; the loss improvement was mainly due to the $128.0M securities fair value gain and a sharp decline in share-based compensation expenses ($30.8M in 2025 vs. $127.0M in 2024, the latter including one-time IPO share-based compensation). Historical revenue: FY2021 $8.12M → FY2022 $68.39M → FY2023 $71.90M → FY2024 $75.03M → FY2025 $90.00M → TTM (as of 2026-06-30) $125.04M.

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Consensus data comes from S&P Global (via stockanalysis.com, as of early September 2026) and represents multi-broker consensus. Single-broker forecasts: UOB Kay Hian (2026-08-19, BUY) forecasts a 2026 net loss of $208M, a 2027 net loss of $132M, and a return to positive net profit of $18M in 2028; this broker's net loss basis is notably larger than other institutions, possibly using more conservative expense assumptions, and represents a single broker's view that cannot be treated as market consensus; Goldman Sachs (initiated coverage on 2026-04-16) expects Pony's 2025–2030 revenue to grow at approximately 100% CAGR, which is a long-term framework rather than an annual point forecast.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of 2026-09-10/11, the stock price was approximately $6.63 (2026-09-10 close, -1.92%); different sources show $6.63, $7.18, $7.35, etc., due to different time points (September 4 was $7.35); the actual closing price on the report release date should prevail. Total market cap was approximately $2.88B (2026-09-10) to $3.19B (September 4); total shares outstanding approximately 434.41M; 52-week range $6.36–$24.92, with the current price near the 52-week low and a drawdown of approximately 70%+ from the intra-year high. The company is not yet profitable, so the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is not applicable (N/A), EPS (TTM) is approximately -$0.33, and net loss (TTM) is approximately -$148.13M. Price-to-sales ratio (P/S, estimated value, not an official metric): approximately 23x based on a market cap of $2.88B/TTM revenue of $125.04M; forward P/S of approximately 19x based on FY2026E consensus revenue of $150.05M; approximately 9.7x based on FY2027E revenue of $297.85M. Cash was approximately $1.11B (Yahoo basis, mrq) to $1.39B (company basis, including long-term wealth management instruments, as of 2026-06-30), with book cash abundant relative to market cap, and enterprise value (EV) significantly below market cap after excluding cash. Yahoo shows TTM return on equity (ROE) of approximately -6.77% and ROA of approximately -12.26%; total liabilities/equity at only approximately 1.16% (low leverage). Institutional ratings are highly bullish (mostly Buy/Outperform), but target prices show a general downward trend (BofA, UOBKH, CLSA, and Macquarie all recently lowered), mainly because raised operating expense assumptions offset revenue beats; divergence is significant — the gap between high target prices (e.g., Goldman Sachs HK$234/$30) and low target prices (Barclays $10) is stark, reflecting disagreement on when profitability will be achieved and the pace of expense expansion. All prices, market caps, and target prices are point-in-time data from early September 2026 and must be re-verified as of the actual report release date. P/S multiples are estimates based on public data, not official disclosures.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 PONY AI Inc. Releases Q2 2026 Earnings: Total Revenue Up 68.8% YoY to US$36.2M, Robotaxi Service Revenue Up 691.2% YoY to US$12.1M

Before market open on 2026-08-18 U.S. Eastern Time, PONY AI Inc. (NASDAQ: PONY, Chinese name "小马智行") released its Q2 2026 earnings and held a conference call. Total revenue was US$36.2M (RMB 245.8 million), up 68.8% year-over-year (prior-year period US$21.5M). Robotaxi service revenue was US$12.1M, up 691.2% year-over-year (prior-year period US$1.5M), of which fare-charging revenue was up 849% year-over-year, with Robotaxi accounting for approximately one-third of the company's total revenue for the first time. Robotruck service revenue was US$13.3M, up 40.0% year-over-year. Intelligent Solutions revenue was US$10.8M, up 4% year-over-year (some Chinese sources described it as "roughly flat"). Gross profit was US$6.4M, with a gross margin of approximately 17.5% (up approximately 140 bps year-over-year). Net loss was US$45.4M, narrowing 14.9% year-over-year. Q2 capex was US$32.2M (H1 cumulative US$44.3M). Cash and equivalents were US$1.39B (slightly down from US$1.44B on March 31). Actual EPS was -$0.14 vs. consensus -$0.15 (a slight beat); revenue was $36.28M vs. expected $34.45M (a beat of +$1.83M), data from TipRanks. On operations: the fleet as of 2026-06-30 was 1,975 vehicles (management said "approximately 2,000" on the conference call); PonyPilot registered users in China exceeded 1.5 million; Guangzhou added coverage of over 300 square kilometers this year; Shenzhen connected to three major hubs — Bao'an International Airport, Shenzhen Bay Port, and Shekou Cruise Center; Guangzhou and Shenzhen have achieved break-even on the Robotaxi per-vehicle economic model (UE). Guidance: year-end 2026 fleet target of 3,500 vehicles (approximately +75% YoY); operating in more than 20 cities by year-end; full-year Robotaxi revenue more than 3.5 times that of 2025. The next earnings date is estimated by TipRanks at approximately 2026-12-01 (based on historical cadence, not a formal company notice). Sources: company earnings press release (reprinted via Nasdaq), conference call highlights (Nasdaq), TipRanks, businesstimescn Chinese summary.

4.2 Pony AI and Verne Launch Europe's First Fully Driverless Robotaxi Passenger Testing in Zagreb, Croatia

On 2026-09-10, Pony AI and Verne announced the launch of "fully driverless" Robotaxi passenger testing on public roads in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia, calling it a "first in Europe." The route is 22 kilometers long, connecting Verne's headquarters/Zagreb's main business district ↔ Franjo Tuđman Airport, and is planned to expand to cover the entire operating area in the coming months. Background timeline: approximately 5 months ago (early April 2026), the three parties Verne, Uber, and Pony AI launched "Europe's first commercial Robotaxi service (with safety operator)"; to date, cumulative operations exceed 200,000 kilometers, thousands of rides completed, and an average passenger rating of 4.7/5. The vehicles are Gen-7 Robotaxis with proprietary L4 domain controllers (based on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX, DriveOS). Global scale figures: fully driverless commercial services in four first-tier Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen); cumulative global autonomous driving mileage exceeds 100 million kilometers, of which over 40 million kilometers are fully driverless; overseas deployment pipeline exceeds 4,000 vehicles (including more than 2,000 vehicles with Uber across 5 European cities). Sources: multiple reprints of the same PRNewswire release (Korea Herald, Manila Times, Gasgoo, East Money/Shanghai Securities News, etc.), cross-verifiable.

4.3 Pony AI Discloses Phased Progress in Robotaxi Commercial Operations and Demonstrates Safety-Operator-Free Gen-7 Robotaxi at Doha AEMOB Forum

On 2026-09-09, Pony AI and Qatar's national transport company Mowasalat ("Karwa") released phased progress on Doha Robotaxi commercial operations and demonstrated the safety-operator-free Gen-7 Robotaxi at the second Autonomous Electric Mobility Forum (AEMOB, 2026-09-07 to 09-09) held in Doha. Project timeline: August 2025 public road testing → December 2025 "commercial pilot" launched via the Karwa App (with safety operator) → Qatar Ministry of Transport announced on 2026-07-07: Phase 1 completed 2,500 rides, 94% without human intervention, satisfaction exceeding benchmarks; approved Phase 2 "2 vehicles with remote operation without in-vehicle safety operators, 3 tested and approved routes" (Old Doha Port ↔ The Gate Mall, Souq Waqif ↔ Sheraton Doha, Hamad International Airport ↔ West Bay). Important clarification (from third-party analysis businesstimescn): the company's Chinese announcement called it "Doha's first fully driverless Robotaxi experience project," while the English announcement used more conservative wording, "demonstrated Gen-7 Robotaxis operating without an onboard safety operator," i.e., the current "fully driverless" falls at the "test ride experience" level, not a public-facing paid fully driverless ride-hailing service, and the messaging may have been amplified and requires careful wording. Sources: company IR, MarketScreener reprint, and third-party analysis.

4.4 Corporate Governance and Shareholder Meetings: 2026-04-02 EGM Passed Resolutions Including General Buyback Mandate; 2026-06-08 AGM Passed Director Re-election and General Issuance/Buyback Mandates

On 2026-02-05, the company issued a notice for an extraordinary general meeting (EGM), seeking authorization to repurchase up to 10% of issued share capital (excluding treasury shares) and/or ADSs; as of the latest practicable date, issued share capital was approximately 433.5 million shares (Class A approximately 352.4 million, Class B approximately 81.09 million); if passed, up to approximately 43.35 million shares could be repurchased, and the board stated that funds would come from internal resources and would not materially affect working capital/financial position. On 2026-04-02, the EGM and the Class A and Class B meetings passed relevant resolutions, including: (i) re-designating 20 million shares as Class A ordinary shares (result: Class A 518.9 million + Class B 81,088,770, par value US$0.0005 each); (ii) adopting the tenth amended and restated articles of association; (iii) adopting the 2026 share incentive plan; (iv) granting the directors a general mandate to issue/place Class A shares and ADSs; (v) granting the directors a general mandate to repurchase shares/ADSs. On 2026-06-08, the annual general meeting (AGM) results announcement stated that all proposed resolutions were passed, including the re-election of Fei Zhang and Takeo Hamada as non-executive directors, and the granting of general mandates to the directors to issue/repurchase shares. It must be emphasized that uncertainties remain: all currently verifiable information relates to "buyback mandates/general mandates," and no company disclosure has been seen regarding the amount or number of shares actually repurchased. GuruFocus shows a "Shares Buyback Ratio %" of -23.77% as of Dec-2025 (a negative value represents share capital expansion/dilution; shares outstanding increased from approximately 350.3 million to approximately 433.5 million from 2024 to 2025), indicating that the past year was net issuance and dilution rather than net buyback; the two are not contradictory (mandate ≠ execution). Sources: Tiger Brokers reprint of announcement summary, FT/Markit reprint of GlobeNewswire, Barchart, and Yahoo Finance.

4.5 Corporate Actions and Capital Markets News: HK Stock Connect Inclusion Pending Verification; New Wholly-Owned Subsidiary Established in Shanghai

HK Stock Connect inclusion: some materials mention "Pony AI Inc. Announces Inclusion of its Class A Ordinary Shares in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program" (PRNewswire release, title visible in the ADVFN directory), but the specific effective date and details have not been verified from the original text this time, and the source and date require further confirmation. New domestic Chinese entity: according to Tianyancha/Jiemian News (reported 2026-09-10), "Shanghai PonyTron Technology Co., Ltd." was established on 2026-09-04, with legal representative He Xing, registered capital of RMB 30 million, wholly owned by Pony AI's subsidiary "Beijing Pony HuiXing Technology Co., Ltd.," with business scope including software outsourcing, software development, and leasing of computers and communication equipment; the source is second-hand business registration information, with no company announcement confirmation. Background (not latest): overseas cooperation announcements during 2025 include Sunlight Mobility asset-light model (2025-11-24), Singapore ComfortDelGro (2025-09-20), Dubai RTA (2025-07-07), strategic cooperation with Uber (2025-05-06), Gen-7 mass production (2025-07-10), Shanghai Pudong fully driverless commercial permit (2025-07-26), Guangzhou/Shenzhen/Beijing Gen-7 fully driverless commercial operations (2025-11-06). Sources: ADVFN, Tianyancha/Jiemian News, company IR.

4.6 Shareholder and Insider Activity (Third-Party Data, for Reference Only)

GuruFocus (article dated 2026-09-10, second-hand): no insider buying over the past 12 months, approximately US$900,000 in selling; held by five well-known institutions (gurus), with three recently increasing and three decreasing positions, an institutional stance that is "balanced and cautious"; institutions hold approximately 50% of U.S.-listed shares (Nasdaq article basis). The company's P/S is approximately 22.84 (historical median approximately 56.7x), GF Score 13/100 (financial strength item 9/10, profitability item 1/10); market cap on 2026-09-10 was approximately US$3.05B. Cross-reference with other bases is needed: Tonghuashun (as of 2026-09-10 close) shows a total market cap of approximately US$2.880 billion (=US$2.88B, price $6.63); GuruFocus gives US$3.05B, with the difference due to different price timing/float bases. Analysts/target prices (important uncertainty): ADVFN news summaries include "PONY closed at $9.74… Wall Street analysts' average target price $22.48, implying approximately 130.8% upside," but this clearly does not match the actual stock price around 2026-09-10 (approximately $6.6–6.8), and is highly likely an old article from an earlier year/month or a different time point, with no exact date marked, and should not be adopted as a "current" target price. A Nasdaq article states that the consensus of 9 analysts is Hold (55% leaning buy-side), with a consensus target price implying >150% upside — this also requires caution, as no exact date/target price value is marked. It is recommended to verify subsequently with more recent broker research or specific MarketBeat/TipRanks entries.

4.7 Summary of Data Uncertainties and Points of Doubt

1) Date system: the "latest" announcements retrieved in this batch are concentrated from 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-11 (Doha AEMOB, Zagreb fully driverless test rides, Shanghai PonyTron establishment), with a baseline date of approximately 2026-09-11; if the report release date is later, new announcements after mid-to-late September need to be added. 2) "Fully driverless" wording: in the Doha/Zagreb events, there is a difference between the company's Chinese and English announcement wording and the actual operating boundary, and these should be described as "fully driverless test rides/experiences" and "safety-operator-free testing," rather than public-facing paid fully driverless commercial services, and must not be exaggerated as "commercial fully driverless deployment." 3) Buyback: currently only a "mandate (up to 10%)," with no evidence of implementation; the GuruFocus basis instead shows net share dilution of -23.77% over the past year, and the two must be stated separately. 4) Target prices/consensus: there are clearly outdated target prices that do not match the current price ($22.48), with no confirmable date; these notes do not adopt them as current values and only flag them as questionable sources. 5) Data source hierarchy: financial figures come from company press releases (first-hand, reliable); Doha/Zagreb come from company IR + wire service reprints (first-hand + multi-source cross-check, reliable); insider/institutional holdings come from GuruFocus (second-hand, requires caution); market cap bases differ across sources (Tonghuashun $2.88B vs. GuruFocus $3.05B); the Shanghai subsidiary comes from business media (second-hand, no company announcement seen). 6) Individual items not verified from original text: the effective date of the HK Stock Connect inclusion announcement, and whether there is any major M&A/regulatory penalty news in the recent period (September) (no relevant results found in this search, which does not mean none exists; this is "not found" rather than "confirmed none").

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the September 11, 2026 close, PONY remains in a clearly weak technical structure: the stock price is below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and MA100, MACD is below the zero line, and the price center has continued to move lower since mid-August. RSI is in the weak-to-oversold range, implying potential for a short-term technical rebound, but this cannot be used to confirm a trend reversal. The current price is near the 52-week low area of 6.36–6.40 USD, with 6.55–6.65 USD being the first near-term support observation zone; the upside 7.00–7.20 USD corresponds to moving averages, recent rebound highs, and prior closing pressure. On volume, September 11 volume was below the 20-day average, and no sustained volume expansion capable of confirming a reversal has yet appeared recently.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is solely a subjective scenario analysis based on data as of the September 11, 2026 close, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute a deterministic forecast of future stock prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 55% subjective heuristic weight): price observation range of 6.55–7.10 USD. Trigger conditions include 6.55–6.65 USD not being effectively breached, volume maintained at approximately 2.5–4.0 million shares, RSI stabilizing in the weak or oversold range, and the stock price unable to effectively break above the 7.00–7.20 USD resistance zone. This weight is based solely on the current technical picture, volume, and capital background, and is not a statistical probability or model backtest result.
• Weaker downside (medium weight, approximately 30% subjective heuristic weight): price observation range of 6.10–6.50 USD. Trigger conditions include the closing price effectively breaking below 6.55 USD, further breaking below 6.36–6.40 USD, and down-day volume consistently reaching approximately 4.5 million shares or more, while MACD continues downward and RSI oversold does not form a price reversal. If it breaks below the 52-week low area, further observation toward the estimated Bollinger lower band of approximately 5.95 USD is possible, but that level is not a certain support level.
• Strengthening rebound (lower weight, approximately 15% subjective heuristic weight): price observation range of 7.10–7.60 USD. Trigger conditions include re-establishing above 7.00–7.10 USD, further breaking above 7.20 USD, single-day volume expanding to approximately 4.5–5.0 million shares or more, MACD negative value narrowing or crossing upward, and RSI recovering from the oversold zone without rapid volume contraction during the rebound. After breaking above 7.20 USD, the next observation zone is 7.35–7.60 USD, but without volume confirmation it should not be directly treated as a trend reversal.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

As of September 11, 2026, daily volume was approximately 3.13 million shares, the 5-day average was approximately 3.06 million shares, and the 20-day average was approximately 4.05 million shares; free float was approximately 346.86 million shares, implying a single-day turnover rate of approximately 0.90%, a 5-day average turnover rate of approximately 0.88%, and a 20-day average turnover rate of approximately 1.17%. PONY is not an extremely low-liquidity stock, but relative to large U.S. stocks, its average daily volume and float market cap are still small, and it may experience larger gaps and slippage when earnings, regulatory, autonomous driving accident, cooperation announcements, or rapid changes in market sentiment occur. There is no unified official "main capital net inflow/outflow" metric in the U.S. market as in the A-share market; recent down days have seen volume expansion, while rebound volume is insufficient, and sustained institutional net buying cannot yet be confirmed. On shareholders, the notes do not provide verified top-ten shareholder concentration data, so the concentration of the top ten shareholders cannot be judged from it. According to 13F disclosure summaries as of June 30, 2026, institutional investors collectively held approximately 136.79 million shares, approximately 36.0% of total shares outstanding; Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board held approximately 21.64 million shares, approximately 5.7% of total shares outstanding, with additional institutional holdings from Baillie Gifford, FMR, Vanguard, etc. This data is lagged by a quarter and does not represent real-time positions as of September 11, 2026; 13F also does not cover all shareholders and cannot directly indicate net buying or net selling. The company's Class A/Class B share structure may also result in economic ownership proportions differing from voting control.

Checkable volume confirmation signals: if the stock price re-establishes above the 7.00–7.20 USD resistance zone, and single-day volume expands to approximately 4.5–5.0 million shares or more without rapid volume contraction, this can be seen as a signal that the short-term rebound has capital support; if it breaks below 6.55 USD with down-day volume consistently reaching approximately 4.5 million shares or more, then attention should be paid to the risk of extension toward 6.36–6.40 USD and the estimated Bollinger lower band of approximately 5.95 USD.

④ Points of Attention (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether the 6.55–6.65 USD first support zone can hold, and whether the 6.36–6.45 USD strong support zone sees a volume breakdown.
• Observe whether the stock price can re-establish above the 7.00–7.20 USD resistance zone; if it breaks above, the sustainability of the rebound needs to be judged in conjunction with the 7.35–7.60 USD area and volume changes.
• Observe whether single-day volume expands to approximately 4.5–5.0 million shares or more, and whether the volume expansion occurs during a breakout or a decline.
• Pay attention to changes in short interest, autonomous driving industry news, company announcements, and overall risk appetite for Nasdaq growth stocks. All of the above are observation ideas, not buy, sell, or hold instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on the September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices, technical indicators. Short-term stock prices will also be affected by multiple factors such as news flow, capital flow, overall market environment, liquidity, and short selling; technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of actual future movements, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please combine with the latest market information to make independent judgments and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Warnings

• Risk of continued losses and cash flow consumption: H1 2026 consolidated net loss was USD 98.86 million, with net loss attributable to Pony AI Inc. of USD 110.25 million; Q2 operating net cash outflow was approximately USD 44 million and free cash flow outflow was approximately USD 76.2 million. If fleet expansion and overseas deployment continue to push up operating, R&D, and capex, the company may be unable to achieve management's stated 2028–2029 overall break-even target for a prolonged period.
• Risk of fleet expansion and operating target fulfillment: the company plans to expand its Robotaxi fleet to more than 3,500 vehicles by the end of 2026 and expand to more than 20 operating cities, but as of June 30, 2026, the fleet was approximately 1,975 vehicles. If any link in subsequent production, vehicle deployment, permit acquisition, charging and maintenance, or operational scheduling falls short of expectations, it could delay revenue targets and per-vehicle economic model improvements.
• Overseas commercialization wording and regulatory risk: the Zagreb project is currently fully driverless passenger testing, and the Doha project's safety-operator-free operation is mainly a phased demonstration or test ride experience, not a confirmed public-facing paid fully driverless ride-hailing service. If overseas regulatory approvals, partner execution, or commercial operation conversion fall short of expectations, the overseas deployment pipeline of more than 4,000 vehicles may not be converted into actual revenue in a timely manner.
• Risk of uneven business growth: Q2 2026 Robotaxi revenue grew 691.2% year-over-year, but Intelligent Solutions revenue grew only approximately 4% year-over-year, and the company's earlier technology licensing and applications business had previously declined. If Robotaxi's high growth is difficult to sustain, or domain controller delivery pace fluctuates, the expectation of balanced growth across the three businesses may not materialize.
• Earnings quality and financial basis risk: Q2 included a USD 33.4 million fair value gain on trading securities, while being affected by a USD 25.0 million impairment on long-term investment prepayments; the FY2025 net loss also differs between sources at USD 76.8 million and USD 133.97 million. Investors need to distinguish operating performance, investment fair value changes, non-controlling interest allocation, and different financial statement bases, and cannot judge profitability improvement based solely on a single quarter's net profit.
• Share dilution and capital operations risk: the company has obtained authorization to repurchase up to 10% of issued share capital, but no amount or number of shares actually repurchased has been seen; at the same time, research notes show that shares outstanding increased from approximately 350.3 million to approximately 433.5 million from 2024 to 2025, closer to net issuance and dilution over the past year. Future issuance of shares, ADSs, or implementation of equity incentives may weaken existing shareholders' ownership proportions and earnings per share.
• Valuation and stock price volatility risk: as of September 11, 2026, the stock price was approximately USD 6.635, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is not applicable, and the price-to-sales ratio estimated from market cap and TTM revenue is approximately 23x, with valuation relying relatively heavily on future high growth and profitability realization. The stock price is near its 52-week low and below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and MA100; as of August 31, 2026, official short interest was approximately 5.33% of public float, and if earnings, regulatory, autonomous driving accident, or cooperation news changes, the stock price may experience significant volatility.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Pony AI's core growth logic lies in Robotaxi gradually shifting from permits, testing, and small-scale operations to scaled paid services, and increasing revenue scale through fleet expansion, city coverage, and overseas cooperation. The rapid growth of Robotaxi revenue in 2026, progress on the per-vehicle economic model in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the foundation of fully driverless commercial operations in China's first-tier cities provide operational support for the company to achieve management's fleet and revenue targets. Robotruck and Intelligent Solutions each provide relatively diversified revenue sources, reducing the company's dependence on a single Robotaxi business.

However, whether growth can be converted into profitability still depends on the balance between fleet expansion efficiency, per-vehicle revenue, operating costs, and R&D investment. The company expects to achieve overall break-even in 2028–2029, but H1 2026 still recorded a large net loss and free cash flow outflow, and Q2 operating loss was USD 65.7 million. The market is relatively optimistic about the company's future revenue growth, but target price ranges vary widely, with some institutions recently lowering target prices, reflecting significant disagreement on expense expansion, profitability timing, and the pace of commercialization realization.

Key points to watch going forward include: whether the Robotaxi fleet can reach more than 3,500 vehicles by the end of 2026, whether overseas projects can shift from testing and test rides to sustainable paid operations, whether Robotaxi revenue growth can be accompanied by continued improvement in gross margin and operating loss margin, and whether cash consumption remains within a controllable range. On the stock price side, 6.55–6.65 USD is the first near-term support observation zone, 6.36–6.45 USD is the strong support area near the 52-week low, and 7.00–7.20 USD is the short-term resistance zone; these technical levels can only reflect market trading conditions and cannot replace judgment on the company's fundamentals.

Data Sources

• Pony AI Stock Gains Traction as Robotaxi Fleet Expands Globally - Pony AI Stock Gains Traction as Robotaxi Fleet Expands Globally
• Pony AI Inc. (PONY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
• 小马智行(PONY)公司概况_美股行情_同花顺金融网
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• Pony ai : Investor Presentation 1Q26 - 48e06.BIf5UOsDFbCVWuRs-mK7xmjJEF6wvM4QhhxsOJeXfoA
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• Pony AI Inc, PONY:NSQ profile
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• 5 Reasons to Pony Up for Pony AI Stock—and 1 Reason to Wait - 5 Reasons to Pony Up for Pony AI Stock—and 1 Reason to Wait
• Pony AI (PONY) Stock Price & Overview
• 经济观察网-小马智行冲击美股IPO 主营业务已进入商业运营阶段-经济观察网－专业财经新闻网站 - 经济观察网
• Pony AI (PONY) Q4 2024 Summary | Quartr - Pony AI (PONY) Q4 2024 earnings summary
• Pony AI Inc. Announces Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results - Pony AI Inc. Announces Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results
• 小马智行在美国上市，自动驾驶商业化进程加速 - 经济新闻滚动 > 正文
• 小马智行2024年营收5.48亿元，持续领跑L4级自动驾驶赛道
• 小马智行2024年营收5.48亿元，持续领跑L4级自动驾驶赛道
• 运营费用拖累业绩 小马智行2024年净亏损扩大至19亿元-经济参考网 _ 新华社《经济参考报》官方网站 - 新华通讯社主管
• 小马智行美国敲钟上市，成为Robotaxi第一股
• Pony.ai Shares Fall After Nasdaq Debut - Pony.ai Shares Fall After Nasdaq Debut
• Chinese self-driving startup Pony.ai debuts on Nasdaq - Chinese self-driving startup Pony.ai debuts on Nasdaq
• Four AT128 Lidar Sensors from Hesai Selected as Primary Lidar for All Pony.ai Seventh-Generation Robotaxis - Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column
• Four AT128 Lidar Sensors from Hesai Selected as Primary Lidar for All Pony.ai Seventh-Generation Robotaxis - Four AT128 Lidar Sensors from Hesai Selected as Primary Lidar for All Pony.ai Seventh-Generation Robotaxis
• 【报告】技术筑基 - | | “虚拟司机” | 向 OEM 提供信息参与者提供智能出行解决方案，包括软件解决方案、专有车载故障诊断产品及数据分析工具，实现更高水平的驾驶员自动化
• 23万成本线引爆自动驾驶生死战
• Four AT128 Lidar Sensors from Hesai Group Selects as Primary Lidar for All Pony.ai Seventh-Generation Robotaxis - 7e023490a
• Four AT128 Lidar Sensors from Hesai Selected as Primary Lidar for All Pony.ai Seventh-Generation Robotaxis - Search tickers
• Fare enough: profits help fuel robotaxis - Fare enough: profits help fuel robotaxis
• 23万成本线引爆自动驾驶生死战-车市号 - 23万成本线引爆自动驾驶生死战
• Four AT128 Lidar Sensors from Hesai Selected as Primary Lidar for All Pony.ai Seventh-Generation Robotaxis - 🚀 Enjoy a 7-Day Free Trial Thru Jun 16, 2026
• 全球 Robotaxi：徘徊在技术研发与商业化的十字路口！
• 東北證券：國內外頭部玩家持續擴容 Robotaxi商業化加速落地 作者 智通財經
• 全球 Robotaxi：徘徊在技术研发与商业化的十字路口！ - 全球 Robotaxi：徘徊在技术研发与商业化的十字路口！
• 勝敗を分けるのは「技術」だけではない⋯世界のロボタクシー番付、中国勢が躍進した理由 - 36Kr Japan | 最大級の中国テック・スタートアップ専門メディア
• 自动驾驶出行服务趋势：四巨头布局，端到端技术趋势｜东北证券
• 全球 Robotaxi 座次重排：中国企业登顶
• Chinas Robotaxis auf Pole: Autonome Machtverschiebung
• 中国Robotaxi玩家霸榜！前五名占三席，特斯拉仅排第五 - 中国Robotaxi玩家霸榜！前五名占三席，特斯拉仅排第五
• 全球 Robotaxi 座次重排：中国企业登顶 - 全球 Robotaxi 座次重排：中国企业登顶
• BREAKINGVIEWS-Chinese robotaxi IPO comes with airbag - Stock Research
• Pony AI (HKG:2026) Income Statement - Pony AI Inc
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• Pony AI Inc. (08X.F) income statement – Yahoo Finance - Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column
• Pony AI Inc. (2026.HK) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance - Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column
• Income Statement for Pony AI Inc - 2026's Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and More - Pony AI Inc
• Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares (PONY) Income Statement: Historical Revenue & Net Income 2021–2025
• Pony AI (PONY) Financials 2026 - Income Statement and Balance Sheet $PONY - Pony AI (PONY) Financials
• Citi's Depositary Receipt Services
• 02026.HK 小馬智行－Ｗ | PONY-W | 公司資料 - 損益表概覽
• Pony AI Income Statement (2022-2025) | PONY
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• Pony AI Inc. (PONY) 公司概況及事件 - Yahoo 財經
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• Document and Entity Information
• Pony.ai Lists on HKEX, Ushering in a New Era of Scaled Commercialization in Autonomous Driving - Pony.ai Lists on HKEX, Ushering in a New Era of Scaled Commercialization in Autonomous Driving
• Company Announcements - Company Announcements
• Pony AI Inc. (PONY) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance - Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column
• Pony AI Inc. annual report, Q4 FY2025 (NASDAQ:PONY) | MetaTrader
• Pony AI (HKG:2026) Financials Overview - Pony AI Inc
• Pony AI Inc. Reports Earnings Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year Ended December 31, 2024 - 8e5.AhwHb2cJ2NDaNzbTeSuBjLuq2OUoEXdtFZQ0uikD-D0.UFB3LQtYuoK-R1qmEEL2_tSdr7VHZzM4cKxb639XqVp3fj4OSki8hul6VQ
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• 运营费用拖累业绩 小马智行2024年净亏损扩大至19亿元 - 运营费用拖累业绩 小马智行2024年净亏损扩大至19亿元
• Pony AI Inc, 2026:HKG.HS financials - Pony AI Inc
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• Pony AI Inc (PONY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Robotaxi Revenue Soars 691% as Operating ... - Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column
• 小马智行：上半年收入同比接近翻倍
• [Pony AI Inc. Reports Earnings Results for the Second Quarter and Six Months Ended June 30, 2026 - b150b4431da89a0544610ca6fdff814.XlxK1OwQub1X0tHnECgFF5e-4T3OvICcaqOO2hi7Au8.JBgCoZpfi98k