RLX Technology Inc. (RLX Technology, brand "RELX") (RLX)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Sector: Consumer Defensive / Tobacco — e-vapor brand owner | Report date: September 13, 2026 | Data as of the U.S. market close on September 11, 2026; the next trading day is expected to be September 14, 2026. Prices, trading volume, and market capitalization are all denominated in USD.

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

I. Core Summary

The key change at RLX Technology Inc. (NYSE: RLX) is that its growth center has shifted from mainland China to international markets. Net revenue for the first half of 2026 was RMB 2.596 billion (approximately USD 382.6 million), up 54% year over year; of this, net revenue for the second quarter of 2026 was RMB 1.0105 billion (approximately USD 148.9 million), up 14.8% year over year, with international business accounting for approximately 68.5% of revenue. However, the 96.2% year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2026 included a one-off factor from China's export policy adjustment, and second-quarter revenue fell 36% quarter over quarter, indicating that the growth pace has returned to normal from the earlier high growth rate.

Profit quality shows a mix of improvement and divergence. Gross margin for the second quarter of 2026 reached 35.4%, up 7.9 percentage points year over year, which management attributed to supply chain optimization, yield improvement, and improvements in geographic and product mix; GAAP operating profit grew 234.7% year over year, but GAAP net profit grew only 1.6% year over year to RMB 222.0 million (approximately USD 32.7 million), while Non-GAAP net profit fell 18.1% year over year to RMB 238.8 million (approximately USD 35.2 million). As of June 30, 2026, the company had cash and related financial assets of approximately RMB 13.8834 billion (approximately USD 2.0462 billion), with total debt/equity at approximately 1.56%, providing a strong cash buffer and capital operation capacity.

The company further extended into international channels and terminal retail through the acquisition of a European entity and the July 2026 acquisition of a 51% stake in a Western European distributor; the latter covers more than 30,000 retail terminals and more than 20,000 independent merchants. This strategy helps enhance channel control and international business expansion, but because the distribution business typically has lower gross margins than own-brand products, management has cautioned that the group's gross margin may be structurally diluted after consolidation, while the absolute amounts of operating profit and net profit may expand.

As of September 11, 2026, RLX's stock price was approximately USD 1.77, near its 52-week low; the dynamic P/E ratio was approximately 16.2–16.3x, the Forward PE was approximately 12.0x, and the PB was approximately 0.97x. Technically, the stock price is below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and MA200, the RSI is approximately 39–40, and MACD remains weak, indicating that the short-term price trend has not yet turned stronger; USD 1.73–1.76 is the recent support observation zone, and USD 1.80–1.85 is the main short-term resistance zone.

II. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Pod-based (rechargeable closed-system) e-vapor products: brands Qingyu, Phantom, Phantom Pro, Zeus, Leili, Daqian
• Disposable (closed-system) products: brands Feiliu, Feiliu Mega
• Other categories: open-system products, modern oral products (i.e., nicotine pouches)
• By geography: international markets and mainland China market (international revenue exceeded 50% for the first time in 2024, reached 76.5% in 2025Q4, and approximately 68.5% in 2026Q2)
• By reporting segment (third-party Morningstar classification, not the original 20-F): Core Markets and Europe Acquisition, with the vast majority of revenue coming from Core Markets

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream, and Cost-Profit Structure

RLX is a brand owner plus partial in-house manufacturer, positioned at the downstream brand end of the e-vapor industry chain (the right end of the smile curve, the brand premium end), rather than the thin-margin midstream OEM segment. Its core components (such as atomization cores) have historically been highly dependent on external ODMs (typically Smoore International, which is a supplier rather than a competitor). In recent years, the core driver of the company's gross margin has shifted from "China domestic market volume and price" to "internationalized revenue structure + supply chain cost reduction + yield improvement," and it has extended downstream into channels through the acquisition of a Western European distributor.

• Input categories specifically include: atomization components such as atomization cores/ceramic heating elements, e-liquid (containing propylene glycol PG, glycerin VG, nicotine, flavors and fragrances), lithium-ion batteries, chips/PCBs (output power control MCUs), plastic/metal housing structural parts, and packaging materials.
• The most critical upstream dependence is on atomization component ODMs: RLX has historically been highly dependent on external ODM supply, with the most important supplier being Smoore International (6969.HK), whose FEELM ceramic atomization core is a core component of RELX products; Baidu's U.S. stock page lists Shenzhen Smoore Technology Ltd. in RLX's "partners/related parties" column. Note: Smoore is RLX's supplier, not a competitor.
• Bargaining power assessment: RLX was once one of Smoore's largest customers and, as a leading brand, has some bargaining power in ODM procurement; for upstream components (batteries, chips, structural parts, etc.), it is a price taker, following market prices.
• Supplier concentration: No official figures for the share of the top five suppliers that could be cross-verified were obtained this time, and this is marked as pending verification, subject to the original text of the latest 20-F (2025 annual report, filed 2026-04-23). The 20-F typically discloses single/few supplier dependence risks.
• Channel structure: offline local channels, third-party distribution channels, channels jointly managed with third parties, and online/offline end consumers; the core is the "offline distribution + branded store plus" retail model within the Chinese market.
• Regulatory reshaping of the downstream landscape: implementation of the "Measures for the Administration of E-Cigarettes" on 2022-05-01 (domestic online sales banned, channels must hold licenses); implementation of the mandatory national standard "E-Cigarettes" on 2022-10-01 (only tobacco flavors may be sold domestically); e-cigarettes included in consumption tax on 2022-11-01.
• Customer concentration: RLX has historically relied heavily on large distributors in China (brand discounts and payment term negotiations are influenced by distributors); no latest disclosed figure for the combined share of the top five customers was obtained this time, and this data source is single/unable to be cross-verified, so it must be checked against the original annual report.
• Structural bargaining dynamics (brand owner vs. licensed channel merchants): after the licensing of domestic channels, distributors' bargaining position has risen, and brand owners need to compete for shelf space and share among licensed channels; in international markets, the company extends downstream into channels through self-built/acquired distribution networks (in July 2026 it acquired a 51% stake in a Western European distributor, covering 30,000+ retail terminals and 20,000+ independent merchants) to enhance terminal control.
• No cross-verifiable accounts receivable amount/turnover days/prepayment data was obtained this time, so only structural evidence can be provided. The notable feature of RLX's balance sheet is extremely abundant cash and investments with almost no interest-bearing debt: total capital resources (cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, current investment securities) were RMB 15.732 billion (USD 2.250 billion) as of December 31, 2025, and RMB 13.9 billion as of June 30, 2026; Total Debt/Equity was only approximately 1.56%, Current Ratio approximately 10.6, and Quick Ratio approximately 9.4 (unusually high values, mainly due to huge cash/wealth management products on the books and very low liabilities). This itself is strong evidence of its industry chain position — as a downstream brand owner, the company can better occupy upstream funds, has abundant cash flow, and hardly needs external financing, clearly superior to the thin-margin midstream OEM segment. However, the specific figures for accounts receivable/prepayments still need to be supplemented from the original 20-F; this is a structural inference rather than a precise measure. Also: Yahoo's page shows Total Cash of 8.76 billion, which seriously conflicts with the official RMB 13.9 billion/15.732 billion capital resources (suspected currency/measure confusion), and this single data point is not adopted.
• Neither the combined share of the top five customers nor the share of the top five suppliers could be cross-verified with official figures this time: regarding customer concentration, there is historical reliance on large distributors in China, but the latest disclosed ratio is missing, marked as single-source/unable to be cross-verified, and must be checked against the original 20-F; regarding supplier concentration, the company has historically been highly dependent on atomization component ODM suppliers represented by Smoore, and single/few supplier dependence is a disclosed risk type, but the specific ratio likewise could not be verified and is pending verification against the latest 20-F (2025 annual report, filed 2026-04-23). Before citing any concentration figure, the source year and measure must be noted, along with the fact that it could not be cross-verified this time.

RLX stands at the downstream brand + partial in-house manufacturing segment of the industry chain (the right end of the smile curve, the brand premium end), rather than the thin-margin midstream OEM segment (the typical midstream representative is its supplier Smoore). The core driver of its gross margin has shifted from "China domestic market volume and price" to "internationalized revenue structure (channel and category expansion in Europe, the U.S., and Southeast Asia) + supply chain cost reduction + yield improvement"; the Western European distribution acquisition will actively dilute gross margin in exchange for downstream extension toward retail terminals and channel control. Whether gross margin can continue to improve thereafter depends on the rebalancing of the share of direct-brand products versus the distribution business, rather than on cost control alone.

III. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

The company reports in RMB, while U.S. stock prices/market capitalization are in USD. The unaudited 2026Q2 financial report was disclosed on 2026-08-14 (cross-verified by the company's original IR release, SEC Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1, and multiple Chinese financial media outlets). 1 ADS = 1 Class A ordinary share. The high growth in 2026Q1 included a one-off factor from China's export policy adjustment, which faded in Q2, with revenue down 36% quarter over quarter. The difference between 2026H1 combined net profit of RMB 516 million and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 501.9 million may be due to minority interest income/measure differences and could not be fully cross-verified, marked as uncertain. Under Yahoo Japan's FY2024 measure, net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 551.8M differs from the company's release of RMB 564.3M due to combined/attributable measure differences.

Growth was high early and lower later: 2026Q1 revenue grew 96.2% year over year including a one-off factor, while Q2 returned to normal with +14.8% year over year and -36% quarter over quarter. Profit quality diverged markedly: Q2 gross margin was 35.4%, +7.9pp year over year and +3.6pp quarter over quarter, and GAAP operating profit grew 234.7% year over year, but GAAP net profit grew only 1.6% year over year and Non-GAAP net profit fell 18.1% year over year, with the difference mainly from non-recurring adjustment items such as equity incentives and amortization of acquisition assets. Structurally, international business accounted for 68.5% of Q2 net revenue, already the largest revenue source, with growth coming from international expansion and the contribution of the European entity invested in May 2025. On the cash side, as of 2026-06-30, the total was RMB 13.8834 billion (USD 2.0462B), indicating relatively good financial soundness (TTM gross margin 34.94%, net margin 21.87%, current ratio 10.6, total debt/equity approximately 1.56%, some from a single source).

3.2 Earnings Forecasts

Analyst coverage is relatively thin (approximately 5–10 firms), and quarterly forecasts are often from a single analyst, so caution is required. EPS forecasts show a huge gap between the "0.90 level" and the "0.13–0.16 level" across sources, the core reasons being different currency measures (RMB vs. USD, approximately 7.15:1) and whether non-GAAP is used; the currency and measure must be noted when citing, and they cannot be compared directly. tickeranalysis's "2027 revenue USD 7.30B" and vcpscanner's revenue/net profit forecast magnitudes are abnormal and are both judged to be data errors and not adopted; vcpscanner is also labeled as a proprietary model rather than broker consensus, with confidence of only 37/100.

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

Current valuation (approximately 2026-09-10/11): stock price approximately USD 1.77–1.78 (closed at USD 1.78 on 09-10, +1.14%; closed at USD 1.77 on 09-11, -0.56%), with some sources showing 1.79–1.80; total market capitalization approximately USD 2.16–2.18B; EPS (TTM) approximately USD 0.11 (Yahoo); PE (TTM) 14.9–16.2 (Tonghuashun 14.9/14.99, East Money 15.16, Yahoo 16.09–16.18, Lightyear 16.15), with differences across sources due to pricing dates and EPS measures; PB approximately 0.96 (East Money MRQ), versus FY2025 BPS of RMB 12.85 ≈ USD 1.80 → P/B ≈ 0.99, the two being consistent; Lightyear's Price to book of 0.14 is clearly an outlier and is not adopted. On dividends, the most recent (announced 2025-11-14) was USD 0.10 per ADS, with an ex-dividend date of 2026-01-26 and a payment date of 2026-02-09, and a forward dividend yield of approximately 5.6% (Yahoo 5.62%); historical dividends were mostly USD 0.01 per ADS; the 52-week range was approximately USD 1.735 low–USD 2.69/2.72 high (high points differ slightly across sources). Valuation reference: FY2024 shareholder returns were approximately USD 122.9M (buybacks approximately USD 109M + dividends approximately USD 14M), and the company aims to return almost all Non-GAAP net profit through buybacks + dividends. The institutional target price consensus range is approximately USD 2.77–2.82, implying upside of approximately 37%–54%, and ratings are generally Buy/Strong Buy, but there is a Neutral view from Citigroup, and many target price data are based on around March 2026 and are somewhat stale. Main uncertainties: first, currency and GAAP/non-GAAP measure confusion causes apparent EPS contradictions (e.g., FY2026 EPS 0.90 vs. 0.13–0.16); second, "Q2 earnings significantly below expectations" (adjusted EPS 0.167–0.18 vs. consensus 0.626–0.63) is suspected to be a measure/unit mismatch and could not be cross-verified, marked as highly uncertain; third, analyst coverage is thin, with some quarterly forecasts from only 1 analyst; fourth, multiple third-party sources contain distorted items (vcpscanner and tickeranalysis revenue magnitudes abnormal, Lightyear P/B incorrect); fifth, quotes are snapshots around 2026-09-10 to 09-11, and Chinese financial portal quote pages are often JS-rendered or slightly delayed, so PE (TTM) fluctuating between 14.9–16.2 is normal source-to-source variation.

IV. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Company Identification and Disclosure Framework (NYSE: RLX)

The company's full name is RLX Technology Inc. (Chinese "RLX Technology"), NYSE ticker RLX, American Depositary Shares (ADS, each ADS representing 1 Class A ordinary share). Its business positioning (official wording) is "a leading global branded e-vapor company." Commission File Number: 001-39902; CIK 1828365. RLX is a foreign private issuer listed in the U.S. (incorporated in the Cayman Islands, headquartered in Shenzhen), reports financial statements in RMB and also provides USD conversions, and dividends/buybacks are denominated in USD; the company's fiscal year = calendar year; the annual report is Form 20-F, and interim disclosures are submitted to SEC EDGAR in the form of Form 6-K. Sources: SEC EDGAR 6-K cover, company IR (https://ir.relxtech.com). All amounts in this section note the currency unit, and the "as of" date is shown in each item.

4.2 Buyback Program Extension (December 31, 2025) — Latest and Most Important Announcement

The company announced through an official press release and Form 6-K (Exhibit 99.1): the board of directors authorized a further 24-month extension of the existing share repurchase program, to December 31, 2027. Program history: established in December 2021, first extended in December 2023. As of December 31, 2025, the current program cap is USD 500 million; cumulatively, approximately 170 million ordinary shares (corresponding ADSs) have been repurchased for consideration of approximately USD 330 million; the remaining unused amount is approximately USD 170 million; after the extension, the amount available for repurchase is this approximately USD 170 million, valid until December 31, 2027. Repurchase funds come from existing cash balances. Multi-source cross-verification consistently confirms the sources: SEC EDGAR Exhibit 99.1, Nasdaq press release (2025-12-31), company Form 6-K (December 2025).

4.3 Stock Price Reaction on the Day of the Buyback Extension Announcement (Single Source, for Reference Only)

According to an itiger report, on the announcement day (2025/12/31), the stock price rose more than 3% to USD 2.37. This is a single financial portal's intraday quote description and was not independently verified by a second source. Its source is https://www.itiger.com/hant/news/1120189178.

4.4 Confusion in Buyback Progress Measures (Must Be Noted, Subject to Official 6-K)

Simply Wall St / sahmcapital (secondary source, citing "Key Developments") states: in 2025, 12,849,383 shares were repurchased (approximately 1.05% of shares), for USD 17.25 million; another statement also attributes "170 million shares / USD 330 million / approximately 12.71% of share capital" to "2025." Verification conclusion: the official press release clearly states that "170 million shares / approximately USD 330 million" is a cumulative number since the program was established in December 2021, not a single-year 2025 number; therefore, the secondary source mixes cumulative and single-year figures, causing measure confusion, and the official 6-K prevails. The 2025 single-year repurchase figure (12,849,383 shares / USD 17.25M / approximately 1.05%) is from a secondary source and was not separately confirmed in the official press release.

4.5 Cash Dividend (Announced Together with Q3 2025 Results)

Announced together with Q3 2025 results: a cash dividend of USD 0.1 per ordinary share/per ADS; record date January 26, 2026 (Beijing/Hong Kong time and New York time), payment date approximately February 9, 2026. Historical dividends (third-party dividend database AAStocks, last updated 2026/04/24): ex-dividend date 2026/01/26, USD 0.1; ex-dividend date 2025/09/12, USD 0.008; ex-dividend date 2024/12/06, USD 0.008; ex-dividend date 2023/11/30, USD 0.008. Management stated on the Q4/FY2025 earnings call: in the future, it intends to distribute non-GAAP net profit in the form of dividends (subject to board approval and depending on operating results). Sources: company IR press release; Yahoo/GuruFocus Q4 earnings call transcript; AAStocks dividend history page.

4.6 Cumulative Shareholder Returns (Since IPO)

Since the IPO, more than USD 500 million has been returned to shareholders cumulatively through buybacks + dividends, including approximately USD 330 million in buybacks and approximately USD 171 million in dividends. Sources: company IR press release (Q4/FY2025 results released 2026-03-13); Yahoo/GuruFocus Q4 earnings call transcript.

4.7 Periodic Earnings Disclosure: Q1 2025

Reporting period Q1 2025, net revenue RMB 808.3 million; disclosure date 2025-05-16; 6-K filing date 2025-05-16. These notes did not provide further details for that period.

4.8 Periodic Earnings Disclosure: Q2 2025

Reporting period Q2 2025, net revenue RMB 880.0 million; disclosure date 2025-08-22; 6-K filing date 2025-08-22. These notes did not provide further details for that period.

4.9 Periodic Earnings Disclosure: Q3 2025

Reporting period Q3 2025, net revenue RMB 1,129.3M (USD 158.6M), +49.3% year over year and +28.3% quarter over quarter; GAAP net profit RMB 206.8M; non-GAAP net profit RMB 295.4M; gross margin 31.2%; international revenue share 72%. Disclosure date 2025-11-14; 6-K filing date 2025-11-14. Sources: company IR press release; FT announcement mirror.

4.10 Periodic Earnings Disclosure: Q4 / FY2025

Q4 net revenue RMB 1.14B, +40.3% year over year; FY2025 net revenue RMB 3.96B, +44% year over year; Q4 gross margin 31.4%, full-year 29.9%; full-year non-GAAP operating profit RMB 570M (doubled year over year), non-GAAP net profit RMB 1.16B; full-year operating cash flow RMB 1.1B; total financial assets at year-end RMB 15.73B (approximately USD 2.2B). Disclosure date 2026-03-13; 6-K filing date 2026-03-13. Sources: company IR press release; GuruFocus/Investing.com earnings call transcript (2026-03-13). Note (timing/measure): the Q4/FY2025 earnings call transcript is dated differently across platforms (GuruFocus/Investing as 2026-03-13; Motley Fool page marked as reprinted 2026-05-20), but the company's official press release and 6-K filing date are 2026-03-13. Also, FY2025 full-year EPS was RMB 0.698 (continuing operations measure, source: Simply Wall St citation).

4.11 Explanation of Earnings Pre-announcements/Warnings

U.S.-listed foreign private issuers generally do not issue A-share-style "earnings pre-announcements/pre-increase or pre-decrease notices," and no such pre-announcements were seen for RLX; all items listed in this section are formal periodic financial reports, not pre-announcements.

4.12 M&A/Strategic Investment: Acquisition of a European E-Vapor Company (Completed May 31, 2025)

The company completed the acquisition of a European e-vapor company on May 31, 2025, accounted for as a business combination, and consolidated into the financial statements from June 2025 (included from Q2 2025). The target is a leading European e-vapor company whose UK business was hit by regulatory pressure from the "disposable vape ban." Sources: Q3 2025 press release note (a); Q4 earnings call transcript (management said it would transform the UK business into a multi-channel retail distribution platform and continue evaluating strategic investments).

4.13 Regulatory/Policy Developments: Mainland China

Customs enforcement was strengthened ("enhanced customs enforcement"), which management said helps "restore market order for compliant manufacturers," with a mild recovery in the mainland business; however, it still faces interference from illegal/unregulated e-vapor products in the competitive order, and mainland revenue remains significantly below pre-2021 levels. Sources: Q3 2025 press release, Q3/Q4 earnings call transcripts.

4.14 Regulatory/Policy Developments: United Kingdom

The UK government banned disposable vapes (disposable vape ban), posing a regulatory challenge to the European company acquired by RLX; management said the target remained operationally stable under regulatory pressure. Sources: Q3 2025 press release, Q3/Q4 earnings call transcripts.

4.15 Regulatory/Policy Developments: Southeast Asia

Facing a relatively complex regulatory environment (risk disclosure on the earnings call). Sources: Q3/Q4 earnings call transcripts.

4.16 Other SEC Filing: Form 144 (Notice of Proposed Sale of Securities, 2025-03-26)

Form 144 (Notice of Proposed Sale of Securities) was filed on 2025-03-26, involving proposed sales of securities by insiders/related parties (source: CapEdge filings list). The filing itself only indicates intent to sell, does not mean the transaction was completed, and no specific transaction amount can be verified.

4.17 Other SEC Filing: Form 20-F Annual Report (2025-04-17)

Form 20-F annual report was filed on 2025-04-17, for FY2024, with Exhibit 15.3 auditor consent letter. Filing timeline sources: CapEdge, Finviz.

4.18 Other SEC Filings: Form 6-K (2025-03-14) and Form S-8 (2021-10-25)

Form 6-K was filed on 2025-03-14, covering FY2024 full-year results. Form S-8 (employee equity registration) was filed on 2021-10-25, a historical filing. Filing timeline sources: CapEdge, Finviz.

4.19 Uncertainties and Limitations: Content Not Obtained from the Latest 2026 Disclosures

The CapEdge filing list shows that the company filed a "Q2 2026 results" 6-K on 2026-08-14, but the main text could not be obtained in this search, so the latest 2026 earnings/announcement details are missing. If a complete "recent news" section is needed, it is recommended to additionally retrieve that 6-K and other 6-K filings during 2026.

4.20 Uncertainties and Limitations: "Current Year-Month" Could Not Be Precisely Locked Down

The latest available data goes to March 2026 (FY2025 financial report) and third-party data pages updated to 2026-04-24 (AAStocks)/May 2026 (earnings call reprint), so the "as of" date of these notes is subject to the date noted in each item and may be lagging.

4.21 Uncertainties and Limitations: Single-Source Data and Quotes Are Not Directly Comparable

The stock price of USD 2.37 (+3%) on 2025/12/31 is only from itiger; the CapEdge page separately shows a quote of USD 1.83 and a market capitalization of USD 2.24B, which are at different points in time and not directly comparable, both being third-party page quotes and not cross-verified with official market data sources.

4.22 Uncertainties and Limitations: Dividend Measure Notes and Currency Description

On dividends: the USD 0.1/share (ADS) amount is relatively large and one-off, so note the measure difference from the prior years' USD 0.008; it is a "declared" dividend, with a record date of 2026-01-26 and a payment date of approximately 2026-02-09, under the company's disclosure measure. On currency: the company's reporting currency is RMB, and USD figures are converted values; these notes mark the currency wherever amounts are involved.

V. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

RLX closed at approximately USD 1.77 as of September 11, 2026, near its 52-week low, with the price below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and MA200; the moving average system shows weak short- and medium-to-long-term trends. Most RSI data are around 39–40, indicating weak momentum but not yet severely oversold; MACD remains negative or close to neutral, without a clear turn stronger signal yet. Bollinger Bands show the stock price is close to the lower band of approximately USD 1.71, with USD 1.73–1.76 as the recent low support observation zone and USD 1.80–1.85 as the short-term resistance zone. Some trading days in the recent weak phase saw higher volume, while volume on September 11 was below the 20-day average; the current stage is closer to low-level weak consolidation or a technical rebound observation stage after further bottoming, and trend reversal cannot be confirmed on this basis.

5.3 Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Deduction, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario deduction based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicators. It does not constitute investment advice and does not represent a deterministic forecast of future prices.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively high weight, approximately 50%–60%; a subjective heuristic weight based on the current technical pattern, price-volume relationship, and capital background, not a statistical probability): price range approximately USD 1.73–1.85. Trigger conditions are holding USD 1.73–1.76, volume remaining at approximately 2–4 million shares, and no new obvious negative news. RSI is weak but not severely oversold, and the stock price is close to the Bollinger lower band, so it may fluctuate repeatedly at a low level, but that is not enough to confirm a trend reversal.
• Weaker downside (medium weight; a subjective heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability): price range approximately USD 1.68–1.73. Trigger conditions are an effective close below USD 1.73, accompanied by single-day volume significantly above the recent average, or turnover persistently exceeding approximately USD 9–10 million. If support near the lower band is broken on heavy volume, it may trigger stop-loss selling or low-level selling pressure, and there is no clear dense support zone below in the short term.
• Rebound strengthening (low-to-medium weight; a subjective heuristic judgment, not a statistical probability): price range approximately USD 1.85–1.94. Trigger conditions are the stock price reclaiming USD 1.85 and holding it on consecutive closes, while volume rises to approximately 5 million shares or more, or single-day turnover reaches approximately USD 9 million or more; if it then breaks above USD 1.90–1.94, the rebound strength further increases. Price breakout, volume confirmation, and improvement in MACD/RSI need to be seen simultaneously; a single-day low-level rebound without volume confirmation is closer to a technical bounce.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Recent average volume over the past 20 trading days is estimated at approximately 3.9 million shares, with single-day turnover roughly approximately USD 3.5–10 million; volume on September 11, 2026 was approximately 2.08 million shares, below the recent average. Based on MarketBeat's disclosed free float of approximately 721.8 million shares, the turnover rate on September 11 was approximately 0.29%; based on the approximately 1.22 billion shares outstanding or issued measure used by StockAnalysis, the turnover rate was approximately 0.17%. Regarding shareholder structure, the SEC 2025 20-F disclosed that as of March 31, 2026, founder and Chairman/CEO Ying (Kate) Wang had a combined beneficial shareholding of approximately 793.1 million shares, approximately 51.2% of ordinary shares, corresponding to approximately 82.5% of total voting power; Longtian Holding approximately 9.2%, StarryInv Holding approximately 6.0%, and Deep Technology Linkage Fund approximately 5.8%. StockAnalysis shows insider holdings of approximately 52.42% and institutional holdings of approximately 21.75%; MarketBeat's 13F summary shows IDG China Venture Capital Fund V holding approximately 57.1 million shares and Vanguard holding approximately 27.1 million shares. The above institutional holdings are 13F summaries and are subject to reporting lags, so they cannot be equated with real-time holdings as of September 11, 2026; the SEC shareholder data is also as of March 31, 2026, and the current structure may have changed. Overall, RLX is not illiquid, but turnover and order book depth are limited relative to large U.S. stocks, and higher insider control may reduce the actual public float ratio, potentially leading to wider bid-ask spreads, slippage, and price jumps during news-driven periods or when liquidity declines.

A verifiable volume confirmation signal is: if single-day volume continues to reach approximately 5 million shares or more in the coming week, or turnover persistently exceeds approximately USD 9 million, while the stock price reclaims USD 1.85, this can be viewed as an observation signal that short-term capital participation has increased versus earlier; if volume simultaneously increases significantly when the price breaks below USD 1.73, that is an observation signal of expanded downside risk.

④ Key Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Trading Instructions)

• Observe whether USD 1.73–1.76 can form short-term support, and whether a break below leads further toward USD 1.70–1.73; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether the stock price can reclaim the USD 1.80–1.85 resistance zone and further test USD 1.90–1.94; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether a breakout or breakdown of key ranges is accompanied by volume of approximately 5 million shares or more or turnover of approximately USD 9 million or more; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.
• Observe whether RSI can recover from around 40 and whether MACD turns stronger again, and judge in conjunction with the overall U.S. stock environment, regulatory policy, and China-concept stock risk appetite; the above are observation ideas, not trading instructions.

The above scenario deduction is based on closing data as of September 11, 2026, historical prices, and technical indicator calculations. Short-term stock prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news flow, capital flow, the broader market environment, regulatory policy, and China-concept stock risk appetite. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future movements, and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make independent judgments in light of the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

VI. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

6.1 Industry Status

The e-vapor industry belongs to the new tobacco category, coexisting with traditional cigarettes and subject to strong regulation. China has fully brought e-cigarettes into the tobacco monopoly regulatory system (the "Measures for the Administration of E-Cigarettes" on 2022-05-01, the mandatory national standard "E-Cigarettes" on 2022-10-01 allowing only tobacco flavors, and inclusion in consumption tax on 2022-11-01; on 2026-04-02, stricter draft licensing/traceability/production requirements were issued), and domestic growth is constrained by a conservative approval pace. Globally, regulation is fragmented (U.S. PMTA, EU TPD, flavor bans in various countries), and industry competition has shifted from "domestic share" to "positioning in compliant markets + channel control." RLX management guides that full-year 2026 mainland China sales are expected to be roughly flat year over year; it remains cautious about the U.S. market's PMTA enforcement outlook and will not make large-scale capital investments there for the time being.

6.2 Competitive Landscape

• China regulation: e-cigarettes have been fully brought into the tobacco monopoly regulatory system, with the "Measures for the Administration of E-Cigarettes," the mandatory national standard (domestically only tobacco flavors), and consumption tax intensively implemented in 2022; on 2026-04-02, a draft by the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration proposed stricter licensing, traceability, and production requirements, increasing regulatory uncertainty.
• Global regulatory landscape: fragmented (U.S. PMTA, EU TPD, flavor bans in various countries), with competition shifting from "domestic share" to "positioning in compliant markets + channel control."
• RLX historical share: according to a CIC report, as of September 30, 2020, RELX's share of China's closed-system e-cigarette market by retail sales was 62.6% (source: Baidu Baike citing CIC, a single-source old 2020 figure that has already been reset by 2022 regulation and cannot be viewed as the current share).
• Drivers of industry structure change: the international business share has become a key indicator of brand competitiveness. RLX's international revenue share exceeded 50% for the first time in 2024, rose to 76.5% in 2025Q4, and was approximately 68.5% in 2026Q2; channel control (self-built/acquired distribution networks) has become a new competitive focus.
• ⚠️ Important limitation: this search reached its step limit and did not complete dedicated cross-verification research on competitors. In the table below, except for Smoore (already corroborated by Baidu U.S. stock's "partners" column as an RLX related supplier), the other "comparable companies/brands" entries are framework listings based on industry common knowledge and were not individually sourced with cross-verifiable references in this session; please independently verify with official sources/research reports before adopting them.

6.3 Main Competitors

RLX's differentiation (based on earnings call/financial report wording, relatively credible): it calls itself a "pure-play non-cigarette business," with no internal channel conflict, focused on harm reduction alternatives (source: Motley Fool Q2 2026 earnings call transcript); extremely abundant cash (approximately RMB 13.9 billion as of 2026-06-30), supporting organic investment + selective M&A + buybacks + dividends, with more than USD 500 million cumulatively returned to shareholders (source: theglobeandmail / Zhengguan News, March 2026 measure); forward dividend of USD 0.10/ADS, yield approximately 5.6% (Yahoo, around 2026-09). Compared with international tobacco giants such as British American Tobacco, PMI, and Altria, RLX has a more focused category and is smaller in scale but is a pure e-vapor business; compared with Chinese domestic licensed brands, RLX leads in internationalized revenue structure and cash reserves; compared with its supplier Smoore, RLX is at the downstream brand end rather than the midstream OEM end. ⚠️ Complete cross-verification of the competitor table was not completed in this session; except for Smoore (supplier), the other entries require secondary verification before adoption.

VII. Risk Warnings

• Mainland China regulatory policy may still tighten further. E-cigarettes have been brought into the tobacco monopoly regulatory system, and online sales bans, tobacco flavor restrictions, consumption tax, and changes in licensing, traceability, and production requirements may continue to suppress RLX's domestic revenue and product mix; management expects mainland China sales to be roughly flat in 2026, and domestic revenue remains significantly below pre-2021 levels.
• International expansion faces regulatory differences across multiple markets. U.S. PMTA, EU TPD, flavor bans in various countries, and the complex regulatory environment in Southeast Asia may lead to continuous adjustments in product approvals, sales channels, and marketing strategies; the company is currently cautious about capital investment in the U.S. market, and overseas growth is not entirely immune to regulatory shocks.
• European acquired assets carry integration and business transformation risks. The UK business of the European e-vapor company acquired by the company was affected by the disposable vape ban, and there are plans to transform the UK business into a multi-channel retail distribution platform; if the transformation falls short of expectations, it may affect revenue, profit, and the value of acquisition assets.
• Consolidation of the Western European distribution business may structurally lower the group's gross margin. The company expects the distribution model's gross margin to be lower than that of own-brand products; after acquiring the Western European distributor, revenue scale expansion may not be accompanied by a simultaneous increase in gross margin; if channel expansion costs, integration expenses, or the share of low-margin business are higher than expected, profit quality may be weakened.
• Second-quarter 2026 profit growth was clearly weaker than revenue and gross margin improvement. GAAP net profit grew only 1.6% year over year, and Non-GAAP net profit fell 18.1% year over year; amortization of acquisition assets, equity incentives, and other adjustment items may continue to cause divergence between GAAP and Non-GAAP results, and investors who judge profit trends solely based on gross margin or revenue growth may overestimate the degree of operating improvement.
• The company has potential concentration risks in key supply chains and channels. RLX has historically been highly dependent on atomization component ODM suppliers represented by Smoore International, and the Chinese market was once relatively dependent on large distributors; no cross-verifiable official figures for the latest top five supplier and customer shares were obtained, and supply disruptions, changes in price negotiations, or increased channel bargaining power could all affect production, sales, and gross margin.
• The high growth in the first quarter of 2026 included a one-off factor from China's export policy adjustment, and second-quarter revenue fell 36% quarter over quarter. If international business cannot sustain expansion after the one-off factor fades, full-year revenue growth may continue to decline, and the 14.8% year-over-year growth base in the second quarter of 2026 may not represent the sustained growth rate of subsequent quarters.
• Stock liquidity and ownership structure may amplify price volatility. As of September 11, 2026, daily volume was approximately 2.08 million shares, below the average of approximately 3.9 million shares over the past 20 trading days; founder and Chairman/CEO Ying (Kate) Wang had a combined beneficial shareholding of approximately 51.2%, corresponding to approximately 82.5% of total voting power. Higher insider control and relatively limited trading depth may lead to larger bid-ask spreads and price volatility during news-driven periods or when market risk appetite declines.
• RLX's valuation and market expectations carry data measure inconsistency risk. Different forecast sources show clearly different EPS forecasts, such as approximately RMB 0.90 and approximately USD 0.13–0.16, and some data also contain abnormal revenue scale or PB values; analyst coverage is approximately 5–10 firms and some quarterly forecasts come from only a single analyst, so the reliability and comparability of target prices and earnings forecasts are limited.
• The stock's technical structure remains weak. As of the close on September 11, 2026, the price was approximately USD 1.77, below major short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages and close to the 52-week low; if the USD 1.73–1.76 support zone is broken on heavy volume, the existing data show relatively little historical support below, and the price may face further downside pressure.

VIII. Conclusion and Outlook

RLX's medium-term growth logic mainly comes from an increase in the international revenue share, supply chain cost reduction and efficiency improvement, product mix optimization, and downstream channel extension. Full-year 2025 net revenue was RMB 3.96 billion, up 44% year over year, and the international business share had reached 76.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025; in the second quarter of 2026, international business still accounted for approximately 68.5% of net revenue. Against the backdrop of mainland China business being constrained by online sales bans, tobacco flavor restrictions, consumption tax, and licensing regulation, internationalization can reduce dependence on a single market and provide new expansion space for branded products and modern oral products.

The key point to watch is whether international expansion can translate into sustainable profit growth, not just revenue growth. The European acquisition and the Western European distribution business may expand terminal coverage, but after consolidation they will change the revenue and gross margin structure; the 18.1% year-over-year decline in Non-GAAP net profit in the second quarter of 2026 also shows that expenses, equity incentives, and acquisition-related amortization may still weaken profit growth. The company's abundant cash assets, remaining buyback capacity of up to approximately USD 170 million, and implemented cash dividends provide room for shareholder returns and business investment, but the effectiveness of capital allocation still depends on acquisition integration and international market operating performance.

Overall, RLX has positive factors including internationalization, abundant cash, and gross margin recovery, and also faces uncertainties such as regulatory fragmentation, changes in the growth base, channel integration, and profit measure differences. Going forward, attention should be paid to the international business revenue share and growth rate, gross margin and operating profit after consolidation of the distribution business, differences between Non-GAAP and GAAP profit, the stability of the mainland China business, and whether the stock price can reclaim USD 1.80–1.85 with volume confirmation; these factors together will influence the market's judgment of its growth sustainability and valuation reasonableness.

Data Sources

• RLX Technology Inc. (RLX) Company Profile & Facts - Yahoo Finance
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• RLX Technology Inc. (RLX) 股價、新聞、報價和記錄 - Yahoo 財經
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• RLX Stock Price, Performance & Company Data | Lightyear
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