Goldwind Science & Technology (002202)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Wind Power Equipment & Operations | Report Date: October 25, 2026 | Market Data as of Close on 2026-10-23

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

Core Conclusion: Share Leadership and Profit Growth Persist, but Q3 Weakening Leaves Earnings Recovery Still to Be Verified

Market data as of: Close on 2026-10-23

1. Key Investment Points

• Q3 Growth Turns Negative, Recovery Momentum Stalls: For the first three quarters of 2026, net profit attributable to parent grew 11.25% and non-recurring profit grew 23.34%; in Q3 alone, revenue, net profit attributable to parent, and non-recurring profit fell 6.76%, 6.95%, and 8.46% year-on-year, respectively.
• Turbine Sales Drive Revenue; Thin Margins and Declining Development Business Weigh on Profit: In 2025, wind turbine and component revenue grew 46.98% with a gross margin of 8.95%; wind farm development revenue fell 19.90% but had a gross margin of 43.16%, making it an important profit contributor.
• Valuation Near Historical Median, Metric Percentiles Diverge: Closing price on October 23 was RMB 14.90, PE-TTM 20.03x, PB-MRQ 1.56x; PE at the 43rd percentile over the past 5.2 years, PB at the 61st percentile.

Market Expectations and Evidence

• What the market is pricing in: At the current price, under the given return and exit PE assumptions, the implied 10-year EPS CAGR is 11.2%; institutional forecasts project 2026 net profit growth of 59.4%, but the time horizon and metrics differ, so the two cannot be directly compared.
• What the evidence shows: First three quarters net profit attributable to parent grew 11.25% and non-recurring profit grew 23.34%, but Q3 single-quarter profit turned negative; whether the high growth in short-term forecasts can be realized still awaits verification from subsequent results and turbine profitability.

Evidence leaning: Insufficient evidence; Confidence: Low (some financial fields still lack official verification or disclosure dates, and some arguments have period or caliber conflicts, so related judgments have been withheld)

Some arguments have inconsistent periods or calibers, and related comparisons have been withdrawn.

2. Business and Competitiveness

2.1 Business Structure

Primarily sells wind turbines and components, and generates revenue through wind farm development and transfer, wind power services, and other businesses.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Competitive Advantage Strength: Weak

• 21% share of domestic new installations in 2025, ranked No. 1 in China for 15 consecutive years, with outstanding scale coverage
• 194 complete-turbine certifications in 2025; domestic and international authorized patents and large-capacity model layout support product iteration
• 37.9% share of domestic offshore wind in 2025; international business revenue of RMB 18.082 billion

Main threats: turbine business accounts for nearly 80% of revenue with gross margin below 9%; direct materials account for a high share of costs, and price competition or component cost increases could erode profits.

2.3 Value Chain Position and Profit Trends

• Major turbine components include blades, pitch bearings, hubs, gearboxes, generators, main bearings, etc.; direct materials account for 89.65% of turbine segment costs.
• In 2025, the top five suppliers accounted for 33.57% of procurement, with the largest at 11.67%; the annual report did not disclose names or single-component procurement amounts, so there is a lack of clear evidence of bargaining power on the cost side.
• Main customers are wind project developers, power generation companies, and related energy customers; complete-turbine sales face project owner tendering and peer competition, and low-price bids may compress delivery gross margins.
• Wind farm development is also affected by project resources, grid connection, and power sales revenue; its bargaining and profit mechanisms differ from complete-turbine sales.
• The 2025 annual report disclosed that the top five customers accounted for 29.27% of sales and related parties 0%; customer names are anonymous, and public data covers only that year.
• At end-2025, accounts receivable were RMB 32.345 billion, about 44.3% of full-year revenue and about 11.7x net profit attributable to parent; estimated turnover is about 158 days. Accounts payable were RMB 31.632 billion and notes payable RMB 12.622 billion.

The company sits in midstream complete-turbine manufacturing, with large revenue scale but thin complete-turbine margins; wind farm development has higher gross margins. Margin improvement depends on complete-turbine margin recovery, product upsizing and structural upgrading, and the conversion of overseas and service businesses into stable cash collection. Trend data covers 2023–2025.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

Wind turbine manufacturing is in a phase where scale expansion and price competition coexist; Goldwind's turbine revenue grew relatively fast in 2025, but complete-turbine gross margin was only 8.95%, and profit improvement still needs verification.

Goldwind's 2025 revenue scale is higher than the listed peers; turbine gross margin of 8.95% is higher than Sany Renewable Energy's wind turbine manufacturing product-level gross margin of 4.43%; however, the complete-turbine business remains thin-margin, and scale leadership is not yet sufficient to prove a cost advantage.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

Operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent are presented per official statements for the same periods and in explicitly stated currencies; adjusted profit and statutory profit are compared separately. The table contains 8 items in total for operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent, all 8 of which match the issuer's periodic report originals item by item. Six YoY growth rates were derived from the current and prior period figures in the original text, and all 6 match the table.

First three quarters non-recurring profit grew faster than net profit attributable to parent, but in Q3 revenue, net profit attributable to parent, and non-recurring profit all declined year-on-year, with gross margin falling from approximately 16.76% in the first half; first three quarters operating cash flow remains near zero.

3.2 Financial Health Check

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation Level

Valuation multiples are programmatically calculated based on the 2026-10-23 closing data (trailing twelve months caliber); peer multiples are calculated on the same caliber based on the 2026-10-23 closing data

Market-implied expectations: At the current 20.03x P/E, if investors require an annualized 8% return and the stock is valued at 15x P/E after 10 years, EPS would need to grow about 11.2% annually (excluding dividends, conservative); the time horizon and caliber of short-term institutional net profit forecasts differ from this long-term EPS growth rate, so the two cannot be directly compared.

At the current price, under the given return and exit PE assumptions, the implied 10-year EPS CAGR is 11.2%, which differs in time horizon and metric from institutional short-term net profit forecasts and cannot be directly compared.

4.2 Consensus Forecasts

Tonghuashun F10 as of 2026-10-24; 16 samples for net profit attributable to parent forecasts and 12 for revenue; net profit attributable to parent forecast ranges for 2026–2028 are RMB 3.770–5.356 billion, RMB 4.836–6.623 billion, and RMB 5.595–7.987 billion, respectively.

4.3 Institutional Views

14 institutions have an average target price of RMB 23.84; another 11 analysts have an average of RMB 23.52 with a range of RMB 16.4–33.1; sample calibers differ, and the latest entry is dated October 25, 2026.

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Upcoming Milestones

5.2 Recent Important Events

• 2026-10-24 Q3 single-quarter results turn negative (bearish): Q3 revenue and profit turned down year-on-year, contrasting with first-half growth; subsequent recovery depends on turbine profitability and the pace of power station transfer recognition.
• October 2026 Cancellation-style buyback reaches lower limit (bullish): As of end-September, cumulative buyback was about RMB 300 million, having hit the lower limit of the plan; the repurchased shares will be cancelled, but they account for only about 0.31% of total share capital, so the direct enhancement to per-share metrics is limited.
• 2026-10-24 Plan to register RMB 2 billion perpetual medium-term notes (neutral): The company plans to apply to register medium-term notes of no more than RMB 2 billion with a term of no more than 3+N years, for working capital replenishment, debt repayment, and project construction; still subject to shareholder meeting review and NAFMII registration acceptance.
• 2026-08-26 Interim report shows main business recovery (bullish): Interim report non-recurring profit growth was notably higher than net profit attributable to parent, indicating main business improvement was stronger than reported profit; after the Q3 single-quarter turn negative, the sustainability of recovery still needs verification.

6. Bull-Bear Debate and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

• 21% share of domestic new installations in 2025 and No. 1 ranking for 15 consecutive years, with 37.9% offshore wind share; scale and project coverage provide an order base.
• 2025 operating cash flow was 1.28x net profit attributable to parent, indicating good annual cash conversion; overseas business revenue of RMB 18.082 billion provides room for market expansion.

6.2 Bear Case

• In the first three quarters of 2026, the ratio of operating cash flow to net profit attributable to parent was -1.0%, meaning profit growth in the same period was not converted into cash inflow.
• Q3 2026 gross margin was 14.47%, lower than the first three quarters' 15.96%; accounts receivable account for about 20% of total assets, and collection and impairment pressure warrant attention.

6.3 Other Risks

• Direct materials account for 89.65% of turbine segment costs → raw material price increases or low-price competition could squeeze already-thin complete-turbine margins.
• Top five customers account for 29.27% of sales and customer names are not disclosed → changes in major customer demand or orders could affect revenue and collections.
• Plan to register no more than RMB 2 billion perpetual medium-term notes → if issued for working capital replenishment or construction, financing costs and debt pressure could rise.

7. Monitoring Checklist

8. Share Price and Short-Term Outlook (Next One Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ The following is a subjective scenario projection based on current technical and fund-flow data; the weights are heuristic judgments, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute investment advice.

8.1 Technical Overview

The share price is below MA5, MA10, and MA20, with a notable decline over the past 20 trading days; RSI is low and the MACD histogram is narrowing, suggesting a possible rebound after oversold conditions, but a trend strengthening still requires reclaiming short-term moving averages and confirmation from trading volume.

8.2 Key Price Levels

8.3 One-Week Range Estimated from Historical Volatility

Using the 2026-10-23 price of RMB 14.90 as the base and the return distribution over the past 300 trading days (scaled by the current index-weighted daily volatility of about 2.4%, retaining this stock's own frequency of large gains and losses), the projected closing price range for the next 5 trading days is:

This range only reflects this stock's recent volatility magnitude and does not include a directional judgment; in the event of major announcements or a sharp market decline, actual movements may still fall outside the range.

8.4 Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (approx. 40%): RMB 14.0–15.3; if it holds near RMB 14.0 but fails to effectively reclaim RMB 15.3, range consolidation is favored. Based on historical volatility, the probability of closing within this range after one week is about 55%.
• Weaker downward move (approx. 45%): RMB 13.6–14.2; if it breaks below RMB 13.8 and support near the 52-week low on increased volume, downside risk increases. Based on historical volatility, the probability of closing within this range after one week is about 15%.
• Rebound and strengthening (approx. 15%): RMB 15.2–16.4; if volume expands and it effectively stands above RMB 15.3, with sector support, it may recover toward MA20. Based on historical volatility, the probability of closing within this range after one week is about 35%.

Figures in parentheses are subjective weights; the probabilities at the end of each sentence are back-derived from the volatility ranges above and only reflect volatility magnitude, not directional judgment.

8.5 Funds and Liquidity

Over the past 10 trading days (2026-10-12 to 10-23), turnover was approximately RMB 636 million–1.279 billion, with a turnover rate of approximately 1.25%–2.52%. As of 2026-09-30, the top ten tradable shareholders held a combined 43.90%; this includes HKSCC, strategic shareholders, and a small number of fund holdings, and disclosure is lagged, so the structure may have changed. Recent trading activity is fair, but holdings concentration is relatively high, and liquidity changes still warrant attention.

If turnover exceeds RMB 1.279 billion for 2 consecutive trading days and the close stands above RMB 15.3, this can be regarded as a confirmation signal of strengthening price-volume action.

The above scenario projection is based on 2026-10-23 closing data and historical prices and technical indicators; short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, fund flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future movements, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments in light of the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

Sources

• 金风科技(002202)_公司公告_金风科技：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• hkexnews.hk（公告PDF）
• 金风科技股份有限公司2023 年年度报告全文
• 明阳智能(601615)_公司公告_明阳智能：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 2026年三季度报告
• 2025年年度报告
• 2024年年度报告
• 2023年年度报告
• 腾讯财经行情（2026-10-23）
• 东方财富F10 合并资产负债表（2026三季报）
• static.cninfo.com.cn（公告PDF）
• reportify.cn
• 金风科技：关于2024年限制性股票激励计划预留授予部分第一个解除限售期解除限售条件成就的公告
• 金风科技: 关于申请注册发行长期限含权中期票据的公告-证券之星
• 金风科技(002202):申请注册发行长期限含权中期票据
• 金风科技公司公告
• 金风科技：第九届董事会十八次会议决议公告
• 金风科技:第九届董事会薪酬与考核委员会第十次会议决议 _ 金风科技(002202) _ 公告正文
• HK金风科技(02208):全资子公司金风国际为其全资子公司金风意大利提供担保
• 金风科技(002202):H股公告（持续性关连交易）
• 东方财富 个股资金流向
• 东方财富 股东研究

This report is automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of the close on 2026-10-23; timeliness differences may exist, and specific data should be subject to the company's official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for information compilation and research reference only, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.