Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (300750)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Power and Energy Storage Batteries　|　Report Date: October 2, 2026　|　Market data as of the September 30, 2026 close

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. For reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.

Key conclusion: Strong earnings growth and low historical valuation support a bullish view, but margins and cash flow conversion remain to be verified

Market data as of the September 30, 2026 close

1. Key Investment Points

• First-half profit growth outpaced revenue growth: Revenue grew 54.80% year over year in the first half of 2026, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew 41.98% and adjusted net profit grew 43.44%; gross margin declined 1.09 percentage points year over year.
• Energy storage scale-up is an important source of incremental growth, but profitability has yet to improve in tandem: First-half energy storage battery revenue grew 87.54% year over year, but its gross margin declined year over year; the power battery gross margin was 20.63%, also below the same period last year.
• Share price at a historical valuation low: The September 30 closing price was RMB 291.11. PE-TTM of 15.85x and PB-MRQ of 3.55x were both at the 3rd percentile over the past 5.2 years; PS-TTM of 2.58x was at the 22nd percentile.

Market Expectations and Evidence

• What the market is pricing in: A PE of 15.85x implies annualized growth in earnings per share of approximately 8.6%, below institutions’ forecast of 33.11% net profit growth in 2026; the share price appears to be pricing in a slowdown in long-term growth.
• What the evidence shows: First-half net profit attributable to shareholders and adjusted net profit grew 41.98% and 43.44%, respectively, supporting strong near-term growth. However, gross margin declined 1.09 percentage points and operating cash flow grew just 2.61%, leaving the quality and sustainability of profit growth to be verified.

Evidence bias: Bullish; confidence: High (coverage by 42 institutions, with market and financial-report figures programmatically cross-checked)

Profit growth and a historically low valuation provide support, but declining gross margin and cash flow growth trailing profit growth mean earnings quality still needs to be confirmed.

2. Business and Competitiveness

2.1 Business Structure

Sells power and energy storage batteries to automakers, energy storage system integrators, and others; also operates battery material recycling and mineral resources businesses.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Competitive advantage strength: Medium

• Manufacturing scale: Sales volume was 661 GWh in 2025, with capacity utilization of 96.9%, providing scope to spread procurement and manufacturing costs over a larger base.
• Customer validation: The annual report cited SNE data showing a 39.2% share of global power battery usage in 2025.
• R&D and product iteration: R&D expenses were RMB 22.147 billion in 2025, or 5.23% of revenue; the company owned or had applied for 54,538 patents.

Key threats: Prices of materials such as lithium are subject to market forces, while automakers and energy storage customers exert pricing pressure. Industry capacity expansion, overseas investment, and changes in technology routes could weaken utilization and profitability.

2.3 Value Chain Position and Profitability Trends

• Procures cathode and anode materials, electrolytes, separators, lithium, nickel, cobalt and phosphorus resources, as well as copper and aluminum foil; direct materials accounted for 71.79% of main operating costs in 2025.
• Purchases from the top five suppliers accounted for 10.38% of total procurement in 2025. Long-term agreements, joint ventures and resource investments help secure supply, but prices of bulk materials are primarily driven by market conditions.
• Power batteries are sold to automakers, while energy storage batteries serve system integrators, project developers, power grids and others; certification, joint development and platform sourcing approvals raise switching costs.
• Large customers have substantial purchasing scale and supplier management capabilities, and price competition can be passed on to battery suppliers; the annual report did not disclose specific contract price reductions.
• In the 2025 annual report, sales to the top five customers accounted for 38.96%, with the top two customers representing 13.73% and 11.12%, respectively; customers were anonymized, and the disclosure covers only that year.
• Net operating cash flow in 2025 was RMB 133.220 billion, or 1.84x net profit attributable to shareholders; bills receivable financing and reverse factoring totaled RMB 37.223 billion in year-end accounts payable.

CATL operates in the midstream manufacturing segment of the battery value chain. Scale, R&D, customer certification and global delivery support relatively strong profitability. Further margin improvement will depend more on cost control, product mix, capacity utilization and customer pricing than on having complete pricing power over upstream raw materials.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

Power and energy storage demand is expanding, while competition is intensifying. The company’s revenue grew 54.80% year over year in the first half of 2026, but gross margins for both power and energy storage batteries declined year over year, indicating that growth in scale has not yet translated into higher margins.

CATL’s consolidated gross margin in 2025 was higher than those of the listed peers, and its revenue scale was larger. However, peers differ in business mix, degree of vertical integration and valuation dates, so PE multiples are not strictly comparable.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

As of October 1, 2026; 2025 gross margin is calculated as gross profit/revenue, while the annual report’s manufacturing-sector figure is 26.49%.

Revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders and adjusted net profit all grew rapidly in the first half of 2026, but gross margin declined 1.09 percentage points year over year. Operating cash flow grew just 2.61%, significantly trailing profit growth.

3.2 Financial Health Check

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation

Valuation multiples are programmatically calculated using closing data as of 2026-09-30 (trailing twelve-month basis); peer multiples are calculated on the same basis using closing data as of 2026-09-30.

Implied market expectations: At the current PE of 15.85x, if investors require an annualized return of 8% and the stock is valued at 15x earnings 10 years from now, earnings per share would need to grow by approximately 8.6% annually (excluding dividends and on a conservative basis). This can be compared with the institutional growth forecasts below.

PE-TTM of 15.85x and PB-MRQ of 3.55x are both at the 3rd percentile over the past 5.2 years, while PS-TTM of 2.58x is at the 22nd percentile, placing valuation at a historical low. Based on the current PE, the market implies annualized earnings-per-share growth of approximately 8.6%, below the institutional forecast of 33.11% net profit growth in 2026. If profit growth slows to the low single digits, a low valuation may not provide sufficient protection.

4.2 Consensus Estimates

As of September 30, 2026, compiled by Tonghuashun: 36 analysts for 2026 and 35 for 2028; net profit ranges are RMB 90.903–102.425 billion, RMB 109.979–138.732 billion and RMB 129.692–167.817 billion, respectively. Revenue consensus estimates were not provided.

4.3 Institutional Views

Futu’s compilation of 42 analysts shows an average A-share target price of RMB 531.38, with a range of RMB 494–656 (as of September 24, 2026).

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Upcoming Dates

5.2 Recent Important Events

• 2026-09-11 Cancellation-oriented share buyback launched (positive): The company proposed buying back RMB 20 billion to RMB 40 billion worth of shares for cancellation; it made its first repurchase of approximately RMB 200 million on September 11. Cumulative execution and final cancellation remain subject to future disclosure.
• 2026-09-30 Draft employee stock ownership plan disclosed (neutral): The company proposes transferring no more than 8.0816 million shares from its repurchase account to the employee stock ownership plan, with a funding cap of approximately RMB 1.280 billion; the plan remains subject to shareholder approval.
• 2026-08-10 Interim cash dividend distributed (positive): The 2026 interim dividend has been distributed following the ex-dividend date; total A-share cash dividends were approximately RMB 6.180 billion. The distribution has been completed.

6. Bull-Bear Debate and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

• CATL held a 39.2% share of global power battery usage in 2025, with capacity utilization of 96.9%; its scale and customer validation help support competitiveness.
• Institutions forecast net profit growth of 33.11% in 2026, while first-half energy storage revenue grew 87.54%, providing a source of growth beyond power batteries.
• PE and PB are both at the 3rd percentile over the past 5.2 years; if earnings materialize, there is scope for valuation recovery.

6.2 Bear Case

• First-half consolidated gross margin declined 1.09 percentage points year over year, and gross margins for both power and energy storage batteries fell; growth in scale has not yet translated into higher margins.
• First-half operating cash flow grew just 2.61%, below the 41.98% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating relatively weak cash support for profit growth.

6.3 Other Risks

• Direct materials accounted for 71.79% of main operating costs; if increases in prices of materials such as lithium cannot be passed on to customers, gross margins will be pressured.
• Sales to the top five customers accounted for 38.96%; customer concentration and bargaining power may pass pricing pressure through to profits.
• Approximately 58 million restricted shares are expected to become tradable on October 23; if transferees sell, increased share supply could weigh on valuation.

7. Monitoring Checklist

8. Share Price and Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The scenarios and weightings below are subjective heuristic judgments based on available technical and fund-flow information, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute investment advice.

8.1 Technical Overview

The share price is below the MA5, MA10, MA20 and MA60; it has fallen 18.71% over the past 20 days, indicating a weak trend. Low RSI and a narrowing MACD histogram suggest only that a rebound is worth watching; there is no confirmation of a reversal yet.

8.2 Key Price Levels

8.3 One-Week Range Estimated from Historical Volatility

Using the September 30, 2026 price of RMB 291.11 as the base, the closing-price range for the next five trading days is estimated from the distribution of returns over the past 300 trading days (scaled using the current index-weighted daily volatility of approximately 2.2%, while retaining this stock’s own frequency of large gains and losses):

This range reflects only the stock’s recent volatility and does not indicate the direction of price movements. Actual performance may fall outside the range in the event of a major announcement or a sharp market decline.

8.4 Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weightings, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Consolidation (relatively higher weighting, approximately 50%): Support near RMB 285.7 holds, resistance at RMB 298 is not decisively reclaimed, and trading volume does not expand significantly; watch the RMB 285–300 range. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price falling within this range one week from now is approximately 45%.
• Weakness and further downside (medium weighting, approximately 30%): A decisive break below RMB 285.7 on increased volume, accompanied by weakness in the sector or broader market; watch the RMB 272.6–286 range and support near the lower Bollinger band. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price falling within this range one week from now is approximately 30%.
• Rebound and strengthening (lower weighting, approximately 20%): The share price reclaims and holds above RMB 298 on increased volume, with no significant weakness in the power battery sector; watch the RMB 298–318 range. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price falling within this range one week from now is approximately 25%.

The weightings in parentheses are subjective; the probabilities at the end of each sentence are inferred from the volatility ranges above and reflect volatility only, not direction.

8.5 Fund Flows and Liquidity

Sample turnover rates on September 24, 29 and 30 were 0.66%–0.70%, and trading values were RMB 8.291–8.614 billion; these are not continuous full-period data. The top ten shareholders collectively held approximately 66.53% as of June 30, 2026, primarily comprising the controlling shareholder, individuals and other legal entities/nominee holders, including Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company, UBS AG and fund-type holders; this snapshot may have changed. Recent major fund-flow data are mixed in direction and differ in methodology, so sustained net inflows cannot be confirmed. Trading value is substantial, while recent trading volume is below the 20-day average.

A daily trading value of approximately RMB 10 billion or more, together with a decisive move above around RMB 298, could be watched as a signal of increased investor participation.

The scenario analysis above is based on closing data as of September 30, 2026, and estimates using historical prices and technical indicators. In the short term, the share price may also be affected by news, fund flows, broader market conditions and other factors. Technical indicators have inherent lags and limitations, and do not guarantee actual future performance or constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Please make an independent assessment based on the latest market information and bear your own investment risk.

FY2021

Prepared by: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited  Unit of measure: RMB 10,000](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2022-04-22/1213027749.PDF)

• Company Announcement_CATL: 2023 Annual Report_Sina Finance
• static.cninfo.com.cn (announcement PDF)
• BYD (002594) 2025 Annual Report Review: Overseas Business Flourishes on Multiple Fronts; Technology and Products Enter a New Cycle_Sina Finance
• EVE Energy Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report
• CATL (300750) Historical Stock Data: Historical Quotes, Prices and Charts_Investing.com
• EVE Energy PB (300014.SZ) - Leetab Financial Reports
• CATL (300750) Earnings Forecast_F10_Tonghuashun Financial Services
• CATL (300750) Institutional Forecasts_Stockstar
• CATL (300750) Stock Forecast and Analyst Ratings - Futu
• CATL (300750)_Company Announcement_CATL: 2026 Half-Year Report Summary_Sina Finance
• CATL (300750)_Company Announcement_CATL: 2026 Half-Year Report_Sina Finance
• static.cninfo.com.cn (announcement PDF)
• CATL (300750)_Company Announcement_CATL: Implementation Announcement for 2026 Interim A-Share Dividend_Sina Finance
• CATL (300750)_Company Announcement_CATL: Announcement on Participation in the Investment in Xiamen Times Yiyuan Venture Capital Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership)_Sina Finance
• CATL (300750)_Company Announcement_CATL: Announcement on Completion of the Issuance of the Eighth Green Technology Innovation Bond for 2026_Sina Finance
• static.cninfo.com.cn (announcement PDF)
• CATL (300750)_Company Announcement_CATL: Notice of the Second Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting of 2026_Sina Finance
• CATL (300750)_Fund Flows_Stockstar
• CATL 291.11 +1.50% (4.31) Stock Price - Quotes - Chart - Market Data - JRJ
• static.cninfo.com.cn (announcement PDF)
• CATL (300750): Resolutions of the 20th Meeting of the Fourth Board of Directors - CFi.CN

Sources

• 宁德时代(300750)_公司公告_宁德时代：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• static.cninfo.com.cn（公告PDF）
• 宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司 2026 年半年度报告全文
• [合并及公司利润表

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available sources. Information is current as of the September 30, 2026 close and may differ in timeliness; specific data should be verified against the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is for informational and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.