Zhangyue Technology (603533)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Digital Reading and Short Dramas | Report Date: October 13, 2026 | Market Data as of 2026-10-12 Close

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

Core Conclusion: Short-drama expansion drives revenue recovery, but losses persist and PB is at a historic high; profit realization remains the key

Market data as of: 2026-10-12 close

1. Key Investment Points

• Revenue resumed growth, losses narrowed significantly: 2026H1 revenue was RMB 1.784 billion, up 16.89% year-on-year; net loss attributable to parent was RMB 50 million, improving 68.69% year-on-year; operations remain unprofitable.
• Short-drama expansion takes over, reading platform still under pressure: In 2025, derivative business revenue grew 139.19%, accounting for 57.20%; digital reading revenue fell 23.73%. In 2026H1, short dramas and other derivative businesses accounted for 66.44% of revenue.
• PB at historic high, earnings-based valuation temporarily unusable: At the 2026-10-12 close of RMB 27.98, PE-TTM is not applicable due to losses; PB is 5.39x and PS is 3.51x, at the 99th and 59th percentiles of the past 5.2 years, respectively.

Market Expectations and Evidence

• What the market is pricing: The share price is pricing in short-drama expansion and future turnaround; there has been no consensus institutional earnings forecast in the past six months, and the valuation data does not provide a market-implied EPS growth rate, making it impossible to quantify the gap versus expected growth.
• What the evidence shows: 2026H1 revenue growth and narrowing losses support the direction of improvement, but net loss attributable to parent persists and operating cash flow is negative; the rising share of short-drama revenue has not yet proven that revenue growth has translated into sustained profitability and positive cash flow.

Evidence leaning: Insufficient evidence; Confidence: Low (no institutional earnings forecasts, some arguments have period or scope conflicts, related judgments have been withheld)

Some arguments have inconsistent periods or scopes, and related comparisons have been withdrawn.

2. Business and Competitiveness

2.1 Business Structure

The company provides users with paid reading and traffic monetization services through digital reading platforms, and monetizes through copyright operations and derivative content production and operation such as short dramas.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Competitive advantage strength: Not obvious

• Zhangyue and Dedian platforms and content/IP resources can support synergy between reading and derivative businesses; user scale, retention rate, and IP library valuation are not quantitatively disclosed
• Over 800 drama series launched in 2025; short-drama market share and industry ranking lack independent verification on a comparable basis
• Digital reading platform gross margin was 70.92% in 2025, but revenue fell 23.73% year-on-year, with gross margin down 9.05 percentage points

Main threats: Short-drama supply is dense and popularity and advertising returns fluctuate; rising customer acquisition and content costs may erode profits, and digital reading revenue is still declining.

2.3 Industry Chain Position and Profit Trends

• Main procurement includes copyrights and content production services, channel services, promotional advertising, and server hosting; digital reading channel costs grew 176.86% year-on-year, and derivative business content costs grew 252.36%.
• In 2025, the top five suppliers accounted for 49.72% of procurement, with the top one accounting for 18.23%; suppliers are not named, and there is currently no evidence that the company generally has pricing power over upstream.
• Digital reading directly targets users, monetized through recharge payments and traffic commercialization; short drama and copyright businesses target content distribution, advertising monetization, and cultural entertainment partners.
• Pricing and monetization are affected by channel rules, content appeal, and advertising returns; the company has not disclosed general pricing power or sustainable end-market pricing power.
• The 2025 annual report disclosed that the top five customers accounted for 47.80% of sales, with related parties accounting for 38.26%; only annual aggregate figures are available, and specific customer business and pricing terms are unclear.
• At end-2025, accounts receivable were RMB 342 million, about 10.6% of full-year revenue, with estimated turnover of about 35 days; accounts payable were RMB 256 million, and net operating cash flow was -RMB 233 million.

The company is positioned in the midstream-to-platform segment of digital content/IP operations and short-drama production and distribution, without upstream resource pricing power. Profit improvement depends on short-drama advertising returns, content hit rate, channel cost control, stabilization of digital reading, and cross-media IP monetization.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

Digital reading and IP derivative businesses are developing in an intersecting manner, with short-drama expansion driving revenue growth; for Zhangyue, the core test is whether advertising and content costs can be converted into sustained profit and positive cash flow.

Zhangyue simultaneously operates digital reading, original copyrights, and short-drama derivatives, with short-drama expansion driving changes in business structure; compared with content copyright and film/TV companies, its reading platform and IP sources are the basis for business synergy, while its weaknesses are declining digital reading revenue, high advertising expenses, and scale growth not yet translated into overall profitability.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

Operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent are presented according to official statements for the same periods and in explicit currency; adjusted profit and statutory profit are compared separately. In the table, operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent total 6 items, and all 6 items were compared item by item with the issuer's periodic report originals and are consistent. YoY growth rates were inferred from the original current-period and prior-period figures for 6 items, and all 6 are consistent with the table.

In 2025, short-drama investment pushed up costs and expenses, and revenue growth still turned to loss; in 2026H1 losses narrowed, with single-quarter net profit attributable to parent improving 80.88% year-on-year, but the company remains in an investment phase, and advertising efficiency and short-drama business monetization are key to turning profitable.

3.2 Financial Health Check

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation Level

Valuation multiples are calculated by program based on 2026-10-12 closing data (trailing twelve months basis); peer multiples are calculated on the same basis using 2026-10-12 closing data

PE-TTM is not applicable due to losses. PB of 5.39x is at the 99th percentile of the past 5.2 years, above the median of 3.64x; PS of 3.51x is at the 59th percentile, close to the median of 3.38x. There is no consensus institutional forecast, and the earnings growth implied by the price cannot be quantified; the valuation still requires short-drama expansion to translate into profit.

4.2 Institutional Views

No coverage or target price.

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Future Milestones

5.2 Recent Important Events

• 2026-09-24 Second-largest shareholder plans to reduce no more than 1% (Bearish): Zhang Lingyun plans to reduce no more than 1% of total share capital through centralized bidding within the reduction window, citing personal needs, increasing short-term stock supply pressure.
• 2026-10-12 Share price abnormal movement announcement denies major matters (Neutral): The company stated that during the consecutive trading abnormal movements on October 9 and 12, there were no undisclosed major matters that should be disclosed, and did not confirm that the share price rise was driven by fundamentals or restructuring matters.
• 2026-08-27 Interim report shows increased share of short-drama business (Neutral): The interim report showed that short dramas and other derivative businesses accounted for 66.44% of revenue, higher than 57.2% at end-2025; the company will not distribute profits or convert capital reserves into share capital for the 2026 half-year period.

6. Bull-Bear Divergence and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

• Short dramas and other derivative businesses already accounted for 66.44% of revenue in 2026H1, and a continued increase in share can offset the decline of the reading platform.
• Over 800 drama series were launched in 2025, and expanded content supply provides a basis for short-drama monetization and IP derivatives.

6.2 Bear Case

• In 2025, net loss attributable to parent was RMB 176 million, and gross margin fell from 73.38% in 2024 to 69.10%; expansion has not yet turned into profit.
• The digital reading platform's 2025 gross margin fell 9.05 percentage points year-on-year, with revenue decline and gross margin pressure occurring simultaneously.

6.3 Other Risks

• Top five customers accounted for 47.80% of sales, with related parties accounting for 38.26% → changes in customer cooperation or settlement may hit revenue and raise the valuation risk premium.
• Digital reading channel costs grew 176.86% year-on-year, and derivative business content costs grew 252.36% → if monetization efficiency cannot keep up, cost expansion will depress gross margin and the pace of profit realization.
• 2026H1 net operating cash flow was an outflow of RMB 117 million → if it remains negative subsequently, it may constrain content investment and weaken the quality of profit improvement.
• The second-largest shareholder plans to reduce no more than 1% of total share capital from 2026-10-26 to 2027-01-24 → actual reductions may increase stock supply and pressure short-term valuation performance.

7. Tracking List

8. Share Price and Short-Term Outlook (Next One Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ The scenario weights below are subjective heuristic judgments based on existing technical and capital-market conditions, not statistical probabilities; short-term volatility risk is relatively high.

8.1 Technical Overview

The share price is strong in the short term, closing at a near-20-day high with volume at 2.5x the near-20-day average; however, the close is above the upper Bollinger band, and RSI6 reached 79.5, indicating short-term overheating. Attention should be paid to whether the volume expansion can continue and whether support holds on a pullback.

8.2 Key Price Levels

8.3 One-Week Range Estimated from Historical Volatility

Using the 2026-10-12 price of RMB 27.98 as the baseline, the closing price range for the next 5 trading days is estimated from the return distribution over the past 300 trading days (scaled to the current index-weighted daily volatility of about 5.0%, retaining this stock's own frequency of large gains and declines):

This range only reflects this stock's recent volatility magnitude and does not include a judgment on direction; in the event of major announcements or a sharp market selloff, actual movements may still exceed the range.

8.4 Next One-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• High-level consolidation (relatively high weight, about 50%): RMB 26.54–27.98; if RMB 27.98 is not effectively broken and volume declines, the stock may consolidate around the high level. Based on historical volatility estimates, the probability of the closing price falling in this range one week later is about 20%.
• Weaker pullback (medium weight, about 30%): RMB 21.21–26.54; if the first support of RMB 23.77–24.82 is broken, watch for support at the Bollinger lower band and MA60. Based on historical volatility estimates, the probability of the closing price falling in this range one week later is about 30%.
• Volume-backed rebound and strengthening (relatively low weight, about 20%): RMB 27.98–37.62; if the stock rises above RMB 27.98 on increased volume and subsequent announcements or sector performance cooperate, watch the prior high area. Based on historical volatility estimates, the probability of the closing price falling in this range one week later is about 50%.

The figures in parentheses are subjective weights; the probabilities at the end of each sentence are back-inferred from the volatility range above and only reflect volatility magnitude, not direction.

8.5 Capital and Liquidity

Over the past 10 trading days (2026-09-21 to 10-12), turnover was about RMB 359 million–2.118 billion, with turnover rate about 3.74%–17.84%, and the latest turnover rate was 17.84%. As of 2026-06-30, the top ten tradable shareholders together held 54.03%, including individual shareholders and public mutual funds; disclosure is lagged, and the structure may have changed. Trading has been active recently, but concentrated holdings may affect the actual free float.

If the subsequent single-day turnover continuously exceeds the upper end of the past 10-day range of RMB 2.118 billion and the close firmly holds above RMB 27.98, this can serve as a confirmation signal of a volume-backed breakout.

The above scenario projection is based on 2026-10-12 closing data and historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of future actual movements, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

Sources

• 公司概况 | 上海证券交易所
• 掌阅科技股份有限公司2025年年度报告
• 掌阅科技(603533)_公司公告_掌阅科技：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 公司公告_掌阅科技：掌阅科技股份有限公司2021年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 中文在线2025年营收16.57亿元同比增42.92%，归母净利润-6.71亿元同比降176.24%，净利率下降19.06个百分点|中文在线_新浪财经_新浪网
• 掌阅科技股份有限公司2026年半年度报告
• 掌阅科技股份有限公司2025年年度报告
• 掌阅科技股份有限公司2024年年度报告
• 掌阅科技股份有限公司2023年年度报告
• 腾讯财经行情（2026-10-12）
• 东方财富F10 合并资产负债表（2026中报）
• 东方财富 F10 盈利预测
• 掌阅科技:掌阅科技股份有限公司2026年半年度报告
• 掌阅科技：股票交易异常波动公告
• 【掌阅科技：股票交易异常波动 无应披露未披露重大事项】金十数据10月12日讯，掌阅科技公告，公司股票于2026年10月9日、10月12日连续两个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。经自查并向控股股东、实控人书面征询，截至公告披露日，公司及控股股东、实控人均不存在影响公司股票交易异常波动的应披露而未披露的重大事项，未发现对股价产生重大影响的媒体报道或市场传闻，董监高及实控人在异动期间未买卖公司股票。公司目前生产经营活动正常，提醒投资者注意二级市场交易风险。
• 掌阅科技：连续2个交易日收盘价涨幅偏离值累超20%
• 掌阅科技：连续2个交易日收盘价涨幅偏离值累超20%
• 掌阅科技：股票连续两日涨幅偏离值超20%
• 掌阅科技: 掌阅科技股份有限公司股票交易异常波动公告内容摘要
• 掌阅科技连续2个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超20%
• 掌阅科技: 掌阅科技股份有限公司股票交易异常波动公告
• 东方财富 个股资金流向
• 东方财富 股东研究

This report was automatically retrieved, compiled, and generated by AI based on public channel information, with information as of the 2026-10-12 close, and may have timeliness differences; for specific data, please refer to the company's official announcements and authoritative data terminals. This report is only for information compilation and research reference, does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.